UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev Next Fight
Age 36
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 6' 1"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Abubakar Nurmagomedov
2.78 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
2.61 SApM
65.0% Str. Def.
1.25 TD Avg
22.0% TD Acc.
88.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
1.8 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
2.2 SApM
39.0% Str. Def.
1.35 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
Moneyline
Caesars -140
KO/TKO
FanDuel +700
Submission
FanDuel +600
Decision
BetRivers +148
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
Moneyline
BetWay +140
KO/TKO
FanDuel +950
Submission
FanDuel +750
Decision
BetRivers +310
Abubakar Nurmagomedov - Fight History
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 29 of 54 53% 48 of 76 1 of 8 12% 0 0 6:16
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 42 of 113 37% 50 of 132 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 12 of 16 75% 15 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:39
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 10 of 34 29% 10 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 5 of 16 31% 20 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:20
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 14 of 32 43% 19 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 12 of 22 54% 13 of 23 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:17
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 47 38% 21 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 29 of 54 53% 13 of 37 6 of 7 10 of 10 23 of 48 6 of 6 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 42 of 113 37% 16 of 75 13 of 22 13 of 16 27 of 87 15 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 12 of 16 75% 5 of 9 2 of 2 5 of 5 6 of 10 6 of 6 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 10 of 34 29% 3 of 21 5 of 10 2 of 3 5 of 22 5 of 12 0 of 0
2 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 5 of 16 31% 2 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 14 of 32 43% 3 of 17 4 of 6 7 of 9 10 of 26 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 12 of 22 54% 6 of 15 2 of 3 4 of 4 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 18 of 47 38% 10 of 37 4 of 6 4 of 4 12 of 39 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Nurmagomedov, citing the long layoff for Zaleski (1.5 years) and Nurmagomedov's wrestling pressure. He thinks Zaleski tends to lose to wrestlers and has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Angelo bet Nurmagomedov at +120 for a quarter unit. He acknowledges the line is tightening but still favors the active fighter.

Bet 0.25 units on Nurmagomedov at +120.
"I like him in this matchup I picked him I bet him early I got him at plus 120"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Nurmagomedov, citing Zaleski's poor takedown defense (67%) and history of being taken down by wrestlers. He notes Zaleski has never faced a wrestler like Nurmagomedov, and that his long layoff and past drug test issues are red flags. Cody thinks Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be enough to grind out a win, even if he's not a high-volume takedown artist.

"I'm not under Santa's guy so normally made of definitely the worst of the normagamedovs that's still pretty good right so I will take"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor picks Zaleski despite acknowledging Abubakar's wrestling advantage, because he believes Abubakar's poor athleticism and tendency to gas will lead to a fade. He notes that Zaleski is a physical freak who doesn't fall apart easily, and that Abubakar's wrestling often leads to his own cardio issues. Connor expects Zaleski to rally after an initial tough round, possibly winning by KO as Abubakar tires.

Odds shift from Zaleski -142 to -103, Abubakar +128 to -107
"I'm gonna pick zalaski. I think abubakar will fade and zalaski will rally"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Daniel picks Abubakar, citing Zaleski's age (36) and recent PED suspension as reasons he may not look the same. He believes Abubakar is catching him at the perfect time and can outwork him with a grinding decision. He notes that Zaleski has historically been a violence king, but the suspension and age are major concerns.

"I'm actually going abubakar nor magomedov and I'm considering a bet"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Jacob picks Zaleski, believing his leg kicks and striking will neutralize Nurmagomedov's takedowns. He thinks Zaleski's performance against Saint Denis showed improved takedown defense. Jacob notes Nurmagomedov is flat-footed and not overly dominant in wrestling. He expects Zaleski to light up the lead leg and win by finish or decision.

"I'm going zoleski all the way I'm pretty confident in him in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov has shown improved striking and a reliable grappling game. Zaleski is dangerous but coming off a long layoff and suspension. Nurmagomedov will land takedowns, control from top, and grind out a decision. Zaleski could pull off a submission or knockout, but the Dagestani wrestler is the safer pick.

"I'm gonna lean with the more reliable fighter in nuremaga made of gimme him to win by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Paul picks Zaleski dos Santos as a slight underdog. He notes the line movement to Nurmagomedov as favorite is undeserved, and that Zaleski is the more dangerous striker with freakish power. Paul mentions Zaleski's takedown defense is a concern, but he thinks if the fight stays standing, Zaleski has a significant advantage. He also notes Zaleski's long layoff and past drug test issues but still sides with him.

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by KO at +400; Over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I'm interested in Elijah's zoleski dos Santos he could get himself in trouble throwing a bunch of spinning stuff getting taken down in that way but it's like if you're on abubakar I feel like while they're on the feet …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov, comparing the matchup to a knockoff Khabib vs Edson Barboza. He notes that Zaleski dos Santos throws a lot of kicks on the back foot and lacks pace, and hasn't fought since October 2021 (over a year and a half off). He believes Nurmagomedov's grappling, pressure, and pace will be the difference, though he acknowledges Nurmagomedov has had iffy performances. He thinks the grappling of Nurmagomedov gets the win.

"I'm gonna go with Abu Bakr name again of I think it's the logical match up here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov based on his strong positional grappling and wrestling advantage. He notes that Zaleski has poor takedown defense, having been taken down six times by Nicolas Dalby, and that few opponents have tested his wrestling since. Zane believes Abubakar's takedowns and top control will be decisive, though he acknowledges Abubakar's cardio issues could be a factor if he fails to finish early.

"I am going to take namaga made off"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 40 of 67 59% 76 of 104 1 of 4 25% 0 0 7:55
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0 38 of 99 38% 79 of 142 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 7 of 14 50% 33 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:57
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0 13 of 25 52% 36 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
2 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 15 33% 13 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:51
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0 9 of 21 42% 23 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
3 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 28 of 38 73% 30 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:07
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0 16 of 53 30% 20 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 40 of 67 59% 29 of 55 5 of 6 6 of 6 36 of 61 3 of 4 1 of 2
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 38 of 99 38% 22 of 69 13 of 26 3 of 4 25 of 81 12 of 14 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 7 of 14 50% 5 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 13 of 25 52% 7 of 16 4 of 6 2 of 3 5 of 16 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 5 of 15 33% 4 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 2
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 9 of 21 42% 2 of 11 7 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 4
3 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 28 of 38 73% 20 of 29 3 of 4 5 of 5 27 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 16 of 53 30% 13 of 42 2 of 10 1 of 1 12 of 48 4 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Big Brady picks the underdog Omargadzhiev, citing Nurmagomedov's inactivity (only two fights in three years) and tendency to drop the ball as a favorite. He notes Omargadzhiev looked impressive outside the UFC but had a poor debut; he expects a better version to show up. He predicts Omargadzhiev catches Nurmagomedov in a submission, possibly a 'club and sub' off his back.

submission
"I'm going to say Omar Gods you have catches DeMarco metal in something I'm going to say he catches them in a submission maybe a club and sub maybe something off his back"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Cody leans Omargadzhiev, noting that Abubakar is the weakest of the Nurmagomedov family. He thinks Omargadzhiev has better stand-up and power, and that Abubakar's takedowns may not be effective. Cody is not confident and says it's a dog-or-pass situation.

"I think I'm leaning towards or magazine like you're saying coming down from 85 to 170 she should have that strength advantage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Daniel Levi picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov to win by decision. He thinks Abubakar's fundamentally sound Russian style will be enough against Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, who he is not sold on. Levi notes that Omargadzhiev's regional fights are suspect and that Abubakar showed a jab-heavy game plan in his last fight. He expects Abubakar to grind out a decision.

"give me abubakar for the win"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Paul is confident in Omargadzhiev, calling Abubakar overrated. He notes Omargadzhiev's submission skills and that Abubakar has been submitted before. Paul likes the plus money and has already bet Omargadzhiev at +150. He also likes Omargadzhiev by submission at +1050.

Omargadzhiev by submission (+1050)
"I had already added gazio magaziev um plus 150 on the money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

The MMA Guru picks underdog Gadzhi Omargadzhiev over Abubakar Nurmagomedov. He believes Abubakar is past his prime and not as skilled as other Nurmagomedovs, while Omargadzhiev is moving to a more suitable weight class (170 lbs). He predicts a late-round submission win, likely a rear-naked choke, as the fight gets sloppy.

late rounds submission win, rear naked choke
"I'm going to go with like a late rounds submission win for gazio margazia"
WIN vs Jared Gooden
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 · Mar 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 43 of 136 31% 111 of 207 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gooden 0 60 of 120 50% 100 of 164 1 of 5 20% 0 0 4:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 14 of 49 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gooden 0 23 of 42 54% 23 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 17 of 62 27% 17 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gooden 0 30 of 63 47% 30 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 25 48% 80 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gooden 0 7 of 15 46% 47 of 59 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 43 of 136 31% 30 of 110 12 of 25 1 of 1 35 of 127 3 of 3 5 of 6
Jared Gooden 60 of 120 50% 45 of 105 9 of 9 6 of 6 56 of 115 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 14 of 49 28% 12 of 42 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Gooden 23 of 42 54% 12 of 31 7 of 7 4 of 4 22 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 17 of 62 27% 9 of 47 7 of 14 1 of 1 17 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gooden 30 of 63 47% 28 of 61 1 of 1 1 of 1 27 of 60 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 12 of 25 48% 9 of 21 3 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 17 2 of 2 5 of 6
Jared Gooden 7 of 15 46% 5 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov to win by dominant decision (30-27). He believes Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be the key, as Gooden can be taken down and controlled easily. He notes that Gooden has submissions on his record but thinks Nurmagomedov will avoid playing on the feet. However, he says he probably wouldn't bet the -235 line due to Nurmagomedov's mistakes in his last fight.

Nurmagomedov by decision 30-27
"i'm gonna take nirmangamedev to be good in here ... i'm gonna say your magametto beats goodin 30 27"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

Cody leans towards Gooden as a live underdog, noting that Abubakar's price is inflated by his last name. He thinks Gooden has better striking and a reach advantage, and that Abubakar's chin is questionable. He is considering a play on Gooden but wants to see weigh-ins first.

Gooden by submission +1200 (considered)
"jared gooden at that price plus 205. and it keeps growing that's that's probably what we're doing"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

Daniel Levi picks Jared Gooden to get his first UFC win. He acknowledges Gooden's struggles with wrestlers but believes he has worked tirelessly to patch that hole in his game at ATT. Levi criticizes Abubakar as a lesser version of the Dagestani style with no stand-up and a questionable chin. He thinks Gooden will get back to his feet and knock Abubakar out.

knockout
"i think that saturday night he's finally going to get over that wrestler hump finally you know get back up to his feet and knock this guy out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

The host hesitantly picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov to win by decision. He notes that Abubakar has a 'Nurmagomedov tax' on his line and is not impressed with his grappling or cardio. He thinks Abubakar will struggle to get Gooden down and keep him there, but Gooden's cardio and durability are also question marks. He mentions Gooden's KO power at +650 as a potential sprinkle, but ultimately expects Abubakar to grind out a decision if he can get takedowns.

Jared Gooden KO +650 (sprinkle); under 2.5 (+155) is a possibility
"I'll go with abubakar to win by decision... not the most confident"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans towards Abubakar but thinks the price is way off. He notes that Abubakar has good wrestling and cardio, and that Gooden is hittable. However, he is not confident because Abubakar's chin is suspect and he has been knocked out before. He calls it a dogger pass situation.

"i think i'm gonna end up taking nurmagomedov but the price is way off at 240"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

The Guru picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision, citing his takedown advantage and better competition. He criticizes Jared Gooden's takedown defense and lack of impressive wins. He expects a sloppy fight with Nurmagomedov dictating the pace with wrestling, taking Gooden down whenever it gets risky on the feet. He notes Nurmagomedov is the worst of the Nurmagomedovs but still good enough to win.

"i'm going to go with abba kabanermedov i think he's going to have a real advantage here in the takedowns"
LOSS vs David Zawada
Submission (triangle choke) R1 2:50 · UFC Fight Night: Magomedsharipov vs. Kattar · Nov 09, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
David Zawada 0 4 of 9 44% 22 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:50
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 2 of 11 18% 25 of 34 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 David Zawada 0 4 of 9 44% 22 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:50
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 2 of 11 18% 25 of 34 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
David Zawada 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 2 of 11 18% 0 of 7 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 David Zawada 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 2 of 11 18% 0 of 7 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 40 of 67 59% 76 of 104 1 of 4 25% 0 0 7:55
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0 38 of 99 38% 79 of 142 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 7 of 14 50% 33 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:57
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0 13 of 25 52% 36 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
2 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 15 33% 13 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:51
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0 9 of 21 42% 23 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
3 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 28 of 38 73% 30 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:07
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0 16 of 53 30% 20 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 40 of 67 59% 29 of 55 5 of 6 6 of 6 36 of 61 3 of 4 1 of 2
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 38 of 99 38% 22 of 69 13 of 26 3 of 4 25 of 81 12 of 14 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 7 of 14 50% 5 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 13 of 25 52% 7 of 16 4 of 6 2 of 3 5 of 16 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 5 of 15 33% 4 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 2
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 9 of 21 42% 2 of 11 7 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 4
3 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 28 of 38 73% 20 of 29 3 of 4 5 of 5 27 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 16 of 53 30% 13 of 42 2 of 10 1 of 1 12 of 48 4 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Big Brady picks the underdog Omargadzhiev, citing Nurmagomedov's inactivity (only two fights in three years) and tendency to drop the ball as a favorite. He notes Omargadzhiev looked impressive outside the UFC but had a poor debut; he expects a better version to show up. He predicts Omargadzhiev catches Nurmagomedov in a submission, possibly a 'club and sub' off his back.

submission
"I'm going to say Omar Gods you have catches DeMarco metal in something I'm going to say he catches them in a submission maybe a club and sub maybe something off his back"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Cody leans Omargadzhiev, noting that Abubakar is the weakest of the Nurmagomedov family. He thinks Omargadzhiev has better stand-up and power, and that Abubakar's takedowns may not be effective. Cody is not confident and says it's a dog-or-pass situation.

"I think I'm leaning towards or magazine like you're saying coming down from 85 to 170 she should have that strength advantage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Daniel Levi picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov to win by decision. He thinks Abubakar's fundamentally sound Russian style will be enough against Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, who he is not sold on. Levi notes that Omargadzhiev's regional fights are suspect and that Abubakar showed a jab-heavy game plan in his last fight. He expects Abubakar to grind out a decision.

"give me abubakar for the win"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Paul is confident in Omargadzhiev, calling Abubakar overrated. He notes Omargadzhiev's submission skills and that Abubakar has been submitted before. Paul likes the plus money and has already bet Omargadzhiev at +150. He also likes Omargadzhiev by submission at +1050.

Omargadzhiev by submission (+1050)
"I had already added gazio magaziev um plus 150 on the money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

The MMA Guru picks underdog Gadzhi Omargadzhiev over Abubakar Nurmagomedov. He believes Abubakar is past his prime and not as skilled as other Nurmagomedovs, while Omargadzhiev is moving to a more suitable weight class (170 lbs). He predicts a late-round submission win, likely a rear-naked choke, as the fight gets sloppy.

late rounds submission win, rear naked choke
"I'm going to go with like a late rounds submission win for gazio margazia"
LOSS vs Caio Borralho
Technical Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 3:56 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 · Apr 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Caio Borralho 0 31 of 49 63% 63 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 1 10:11
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0 12 of 38 31% 61 of 90 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Caio Borralho 0 18 of 26 69% 32 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 1 4:06
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0 5 of 10 50% 31 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
2 Caio Borralho 0 7 of 11 63% 24 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:54
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0 1 of 12 8% 17 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Caio Borralho 0 6 of 12 50% 7 of 13 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:11
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0 6 of 16 37% 13 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Caio Borralho 31 of 49 63% 23 of 35 4 of 10 4 of 4 11 of 26 1 of 1 19 of 22
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 12 of 38 31% 6 of 28 5 of 8 1 of 2 8 of 34 2 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Caio Borralho 18 of 26 69% 15 of 20 1 of 4 2 of 2 2 of 8 0 of 0 16 of 18
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 5 of 10 50% 3 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Caio Borralho 7 of 11 63% 4 of 8 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 3
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 1 of 12 8% 1 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Caio Borralho 6 of 12 50% 4 of 7 0 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 6 of 16 37% 2 of 10 3 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Angelo picks Gadzhi Omargadzhiev as a slight favorite. He notes that Caio Borralho is a slick grappler with good submissions, but Gadzhi has more power, better wrestling, and better cardio to maintain a wrestling pace. He expects Gadzhi to push forward, get takedowns, and avoid submissions to win a decision. He cautions that Caio's bottom grappling is solid and he has nice sweeps.

"i think kyle is the better athlete and definitely the better grappler but godzi has more power he's the better wrestler and has more better cardio to keep a wrestling pace"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Big Brady slightly edges with Caio Borralho (Kyle) as the underdog. He notes Borralho has an eight-inch reach advantage and better striking volume, and he likes his defensive grappling and takedown defense as a BJJ black belt. He sees two paths: either Omargadzhiev takes him down and controls, or Borralho keeps it standing and outstrikes him. Brady leans toward the latter, predicting a decision win for Borralho, but calls it a very tough fight.

"i think i'm gonna slightly edge with kyle here the dog"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Cody picks Borralho as a slight dog, praising his fight IQ, striking, and grappling. He notes Borralho's BJJ and judo black belts and thinks he can survive takedowns and take over as the fight progresses. He sees the line as closer to a pick'em and likes the value.

"i'll go ever so slightly with brawl"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Daniel Levi leans with Caio Borralho as a +110 underdog, citing Borralho's karate-style striking, activity on the feet, and black belt under Demian Maia which should help his takedown defense and submission defense. He questions Omargadzhiev's undefeated record due to a possible amateur loss after turning pro, and notes that Russian fighters have been getting unfavorable decisions recently. Levi is concerned about Borralho's hands-low defense and lack of proven takedown defense against high-level wrestlers, but believes his training with Maia gives him confidence. He sees it as a 50/50 fight and prefers the dog.

Caio Borralho +110 underdog; mentions judges hating on Russian fighters
"I kind of do lean borrelio here because I do think that... when you got a guy like damien maya trying to grapple you for eight years straight that's gotta elevate your confidence."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Paul leans towards Omargadzhiev, citing his Dagestani grappling style and ability to take opponents down and grind them out. He thinks Omargadzhiev can neutralize Borralho and win by decision, though he admits he's not highly confident.

"i think godzilla is able to take him down neutralize them not necessarily get a finish but do that enough to uh to secure a victory probably by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho as an underdog, citing his reach advantage and grappling defense. He notes Borralho's grappling match with Jailton Almeida, where he wasn't submitted, and believes he has power to finish. He expects a late first-round TKO.

underdog, first round TKO
"calboharlo is very good he's got a reach advantage of three and a half inches here"
Expert Picks (5)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Big Brady picks the underdog Omargadzhiev, citing Nurmagomedov's inactivity (only two fights in three years) and tendency to drop the ball as a favorite. He notes Omargadzhiev looked impressive outside the UFC but had a poor debut; he expects a better version to show up. He predicts Omargadzhiev catches Nurmagomedov in a submission, possibly a 'club and sub' off his back.

submission
"I'm going to say Omar Gods you have catches DeMarco metal in something I'm going to say he catches them in a submission maybe a club and sub maybe something off his back"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Cody leans Omargadzhiev, noting that Abubakar is the weakest of the Nurmagomedov family. He thinks Omargadzhiev has better stand-up and power, and that Abubakar's takedowns may not be effective. Cody is not confident and says it's a dog-or-pass situation.

"I think I'm leaning towards or magazine like you're saying coming down from 85 to 170 she should have that strength advantage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Daniel Levi picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov to win by decision. He thinks Abubakar's fundamentally sound Russian style will be enough against Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, who he is not sold on. Levi notes that Omargadzhiev's regional fights are suspect and that Abubakar showed a jab-heavy game plan in his last fight. He expects Abubakar to grind out a decision.

"give me abubakar for the win"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Paul is confident in Omargadzhiev, calling Abubakar overrated. He notes Omargadzhiev's submission skills and that Abubakar has been submitted before. Paul likes the plus money and has already bet Omargadzhiev at +150. He also likes Omargadzhiev by submission at +1050.

Omargadzhiev by submission (+1050)
"I had already added gazio magaziev um plus 150 on the money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

The MMA Guru picks underdog Gadzhi Omargadzhiev over Abubakar Nurmagomedov. He believes Abubakar is past his prime and not as skilled as other Nurmagomedovs, while Omargadzhiev is moving to a more suitable weight class (170 lbs). He predicts a late-round submission win, likely a rear-naked choke, as the fight gets sloppy.

late rounds submission win, rear naked choke
"I'm going to go with like a late rounds submission win for gazio margazia"