UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 34
Height 6' 3"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Nikita Krylov
4.36 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
2.59 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
2.05 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Volkan Oezdemir
4.99 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.19 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.5 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
80.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Nikita Krylov
Moneyline
BetRivers -180
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
BetRivers +370
Decision
BetRivers +350
Volkan Oezdemir
Moneyline
Caesars +165
KO/TKO
BetRivers +310
Submission
FanDuel +3400
Decision
FanDuel +550
Nikita Krylov - Fight History
SCHED vs Robert Whittaker
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
KO R3 4:57 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 1 72 of 137 52% 94 of 164 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:37
Modestas Bukauskas 0 40 of 108 37% 43 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 10 of 28 35% 25 of 48 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:58
Modestas Bukauskas 0 11 of 21 52% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nikita Krylov 0 23 of 40 57% 30 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Modestas Bukauskas 0 11 of 32 34% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
3 Nikita Krylov 1 39 of 69 56% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Modestas Bukauskas 0 18 of 55 32% 18 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 72 of 137 52% 25 of 76 22 of 34 25 of 27 64 of 128 5 of 6 3 of 3
Modestas Bukauskas 40 of 108 37% 35 of 101 2 of 4 3 of 3 40 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 10 of 28 35% 3 of 17 1 of 5 6 of 6 10 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nikita Krylov 23 of 40 57% 8 of 20 8 of 13 7 of 7 19 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 11 of 32 34% 8 of 28 2 of 3 1 of 1 11 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nikita Krylov 39 of 69 56% 14 of 39 13 of 16 12 of 14 35 of 65 1 of 1 3 of 3
Modestas Bukauskas 18 of 55 32% 16 of 52 0 of 1 2 of 2 18 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Nikita Krylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-165), Krylov (+130)

Round 1
A 205-pound smash-‘em-up derby keeps the action going, as the two men about to set foot in the cage are eying that new $25K finish bonus on top of the raised $100K for Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night. Krylov (30-11, 11-9 UFC) may be gunning for the latter of those two bonus checks, given his 93% stoppage rate with 23 of his 28 finishes coming in Round 1. “The Baltic Gladiator” Bukauskas (19-6, 7-4 UFC) will need to be on his best behavior when taking on the offensive force of the Ukrainian by way of Russia, and referee Marc Goddard will see to that. They touch gloves.
Krylov bounces back and forth on his heels, and he times a high kick that careens off the guard and a low kick that slaps off the front leg. When Krylov tosses out another naked leg kick, Bukauskas belts him with a pair of punches. Krylov gets away with another calf kick, and his subsequent offering to the midsection comes up short. Bukauskas winds up and hurls punches at his opponent, who backs straight up and is just out of range. Krylov attempts a single-leg entry, and he proceeds to press Bukauskas against the cage wall. Bukauskas looks to use a body lock when the first effort fails, and he works his foe’s knees while grinding on him. Krylov aims to slip his leg around Bukauskas’ to disrupt his balance, and he tackles the Lithuanian to the floor for a moment. Bukauskas bounces back up and gets pushed to the wall, and the crowd is not having it.
Krylov transitions from one takedown attempt to another, but Bukauskas is able to defend them and stay upright. Goddard claps for them to do more, and Krylov grabs hold of a single and lifts the leg up high. Bukauskas springs away and barely evades a head kick on the way out, and when he tries to engage, he gets caught with a right hand on the temple. Krylov peppers with kicks on the outside, and one of his low kicks is met with a blistering right hand that makes him take a quick count of his teeth. Bukauskas swats with a left and then a right hand, and Krylov springs into action with a kick and swinging fists that miss by a wide margin. Another Krylov blitz is met with counters, but he steels himself and shakes up “The Baltic Gladiator” with a right hand. Bukauskas retreats to gather his thoughts, and Krylov lets him off the hook as the two reach the round horn for the first time of any fight tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Krylov

Round 2
The 205ers touch gloves to get started, and it takes a couple seconds before Krylov unveils his first offensive tactic of a body kick. Bukauskas replies with a one-two, and they both toss out kicks at the same time to different targets. Bukauskas clips Krylov with a left hand on the way out, and fists quickly fly in an exchange at the center of the cage. Krylov works the body with a kick, and this draws out some hard swings from Bukauskas that drive him back. The Ukrainian ducks a huge haymaker and engages in a clinch with hopes of scoring a takedown, but Bukauskas is able to stifle them and spin him around against the wire. They jockey for position and trade knees up the middle, with neither man gaining the upper hand as they stay at it.
Krylov gets off a solid knee to the breadbasket and shoots, but the takedown hits a wall. Goddard asks for them to do more, and they answer by shoving one another away. Krylov’s mouthpiece falls out, and he quickly puts it back in as Bukauskas lets him do so. Krylov lumbers forward and smacks Bukauskas in the temple with a lead-leg head kick, and he skims his man on the temple with a looping left. Bukauskas sits down on a chopping kick, and he slides away from the trio of punches aimed at his mug. Krylov narrowly evades bombs chucked at his chin, although Bukauskas is able to get him a few times. Krylov strikes back, with his blows having an impact as Bukauskas’ left cheek is swelling up fast. Krylov ducks down for a looping right, and he dodges a big right hand and manages to kick the body on the way out. Bukauskas overswings his right hand and is blocked, with “The Baltic Gladiator” hunting for that home run blow. He manages to get off a spinning back kick to the body, and they trade hands until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas

Round 3
The two reach the final round and share a fist bump before throwing caution to the wind. Both men lob huge hooks at one another, and they largely escape the damage from them thanks to just enough head movement. Krylov goes low to high with two kicks, and he steps in and blasts Bukauskas with a left hand. Krylov gets off another booming punch, and Bukauskas sits down on counters but largely comes up short. “The Miner” digs a kick to the midsection and is countered, but the damage is done as his kick connected. Bukauskas waits for the one big opening, and Krylov is dancing around the edges of range hitting him with anything he offers. Bukauskas snaps the head back with a solid left, but it is one-and-done before Krylov rushes at him to trade leather. Bukauskas clips him again, and Krylov pays no attention to the blow and plods ever forward. He works the body with a kick, and sways back from the looping counters.
Bukauskas lands a calf kick, and Krylov nods at him and doubles up on kicks from his rear leg. Bukauskas keeps his guard up to defend himself from the blows, and he winds up on a right hand that misses the mark. Krylov tanks two punches on the jaw and frustrates his foe with push kicks to the body. Krylov sneaks in a left hand while hurling heavy shots, and Bukauskas is left playing catch-up. They trade punches after Bukauskas absorbs a calf kick, and Bukauskas tries to take advantage of the strike by loading up on more. They miss, and the crowd boos. Krylov leads with a low kick into a jab, and he gets caught by a right hand and waves Bukauskas on for more. Bukauskas gives him more with a crisp left, and Krylov dances around and switches stances a few times. Krylov dodges a wheel kick and gets blazed with a right hand, and he is on a mission. Hearing the 10-second clapper, “The Miner” digs deep and unloads with a fire and fury while Bukauskas is overloading on his own strikes.
Krylov catches his man cleanly with a ferocious right hand that sets “The Baltic Gladiator” down and forces his eyes to roll around in his head. Bukauskas turns to try to recover, crawling to his knees to the fence, and Krylov races after him and batters him with destructive right hands. One particularly effective fist shuts Bukauskas’ lights out and his post arms give way, leading to Bukauskas collapsing on his face like a failed push-up.
Goddard sees that Bukauskas went out and rushes in to stop the fight, keeping the finish streak—and buzzer-beater pattern—alive today. It may have taken just about 15 minutes to get there, but Krylov registered a huge knockout after a close battle, his first since 2022 when he smoked Alexander Gustafsson.

The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Modestas Bukauskas R3 4:57 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, trusting his takedown defense and power. He thinks Nikita Krylov is the better overall fighter but has a weak chin, and Bukauskas only needs one clean shot. He warns Bukauskas not to engage in grappling like he did against Paul Craig.

This is just a fun fight. You don't need to bet on everything. Just sit back, relax, enjoy.
"I'm going to take the more powerful striker over the guy with the failing chin. So Modesus is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Big Brady thinks Krylov is washed, citing his age (33 but 41 fights), long layoff, and two recent KO losses where he looked old and hesitant. He notes Krylov has stopped grappling, which was his best attribute. Bukauskas has been improving, and Brady expects him to knock out Krylov in the second round.

Bukauskas by KO/TKO in round 2
"I'm taking the guy who's not completely washed and that's Modest Bukowskis. I'm going to take Bukowskis to knock out Krill."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Cody confidently picks Bukauskas, arguing that Krylov is washed after a two-year layoff and two first-round KO losses. He notes Bukauskas's defensive wrestling and cardio should allow him to survive the first round and take over. Cody believes Bukauskas's ring generalship and durability will be enough to edge out a win.

"I'm going to edge him out with Krylov. It's very much a question of is he done? And he's 33 years old. It's not really done by the numbers, but you know, Paul mentioned it two-year layoff and he's come …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Connor is sad about Krylov's decline, noting his chin is gone after two consecutive knockouts. He observes that Krylov looks panicked and flailing in recent fights, while Bukauskas has been improving, becoming more composed and taking opportunities. Connor believes Bukauskas's accuracy and incidental power could lead to a knockout, especially given Krylov's compromised durability.

"I got to take bakaskis. I hate to see it because when he was in his prime he was out there with like a high volume kicking game."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Daniel Vreeland picks Modestas Bukauskas to win by knockout. He notes that Krylov has lost two straight by first-round KO and appears washed, while Bukauskas is on a hot streak and brimming with confidence. Vreeland believes Bukauskas is catching Krylov at the perfect time and will get the biggest win of his career.

"I think Bukasquez comes out here, gets the biggest win of his career, and for the first time becomes a ranked UFC light heavyweight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

James picks Krylov as an underdog, believing the line is too wide due to recency bias. He notes Krylov's superior skill set and grappling, and that Bukauskas has struggled with grappling. He also mentions inside info that Bukauskas's training camp has been disrupted. However, he acknowledges Krylov's chin might be shot.

"I kind of feel like Kryle wins skill set for skill set here. And if he comes in with a good game plan with his chin not being completely paper or dust, then he has a good shot of winning …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The host picks Bukauskas by knockout, believing his improved striking and defensive grappling will nullify Krylov's takedowns. He notes Krylov is on a two-fight losing streak and may be desperate, but Bukauskas's recent form and training with top heavyweights give him the edge. He loves the -140 line but has slight pause due to Bukauskas's past bonehead mistakes.

Bukauskas by knockout
"I love this line on Bukowskis. You know, he's made some bonehead mistakes in the past to make fights a little bit closer than they should be. So that kind of gives me a little bit of pause in terms …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Paul leans toward Modestas Bukauskas, citing Krylov's recent durability issues and poor form. He notes Bukauskas is a generalist who can outwork Krylov, especially if the fight goes past the first round. Paul is hesitant due to Bukauskas's wrestling vulnerability but believes Krylov's decline is real.

"I do tend to to lean towards Picowskis, but I'm a little bit hesitant because I think his wrestling is still there to be exploited."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Nikita Krylov's charging style and chin. He notes Bukauskas's growing confidence and counter-striking ability, predicting a KO in round two after an initial scrap.

KO in round two
"I'm going to go with Modi by KO in round two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Krylov's chin is gone and he looks like he's swimming out there. He notes that Bukauskas is peaking at 31 and has become more accurate and composed. Zane also comments on Krylov's lack of confidence and panicked starts, which Bukauskas can exploit.

"He seems like he's starting the fight panicked. Which is bad. And just imagine how he's going to feel when he looks into medestus bakowskis's empty eyes."
LOSS vs Bogdan Guskov
KO R1 4:18 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 1 23 of 43 53% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 1 23 of 43 53% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 16 of 34 47% 6 of 20 3 of 5 7 of 9 16 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 23 of 43 53% 20 of 40 1 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 12 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 16 of 34 47% 6 of 20 3 of 5 7 of 9 16 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 23 of 43 53% 20 of 40 1 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 12 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Angelo picks Nikita Krylov, citing his well-rounded skills, high fight IQ, and clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes Bogdan Guskov has power but showed wrestling holes in his last fight. He uses MMA math (Krylov beat Volkan, Volkan beat Guskov) and expects Krylov to wrestle. He will not bet on this fight.

No bet
"Nikita's going to be the pick because it's an obvious path forward and he is a very high fight IQ fighter. I'm not betting on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov, citing a significant grappling advantage. He notes Guskov has been outgrappled by lesser fighters like Billy Elekana and Volkan Oezdemir, and believes Krylov will take him down and submit him easily. He worries about Krylov's durability and fight IQ but thinks if he wrestles, he wins. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"I got to go Krillof here. ... if he goes out there and gets takedowns, he should make this look quite easy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor acknowledges Krylov's shaky confidence after the Reyes KO but believes Guskov's style is more manageable. He notes Guskov's poor takedown defense and Krylov's clear path to win via wrestling. He thinks Krylov will test his grappling early and avoid striking exchanges.

"I'll take Krylov, but I'm going to take Krylov too."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

This is a perfect matchup for Krylov to utilize his grapple-heavy approach, keep Guskov on his back, grind him out, and clearly win on the scorecards or even lock up a late submission.

decision or late submission
"I think this is a perfect match up for Krillof to go out there and utilize his grapple heavy approach and keep Guskov on his back, grind him out and clearly win this fight on the scorecards or even locking …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov, citing his patience, calmness, and ability to eat shots and break opponents. He criticizes Nikita Krylov for returning too soon after a KO loss and being too wild. He predicts an early TKO, possibly in round one or two, with multiple knockdowns.

TKO, round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Bogdan Guskov getting this one done against Nikita Krylov by TKO early."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, noting that Guskov is vulnerable to wrestling and Krylov has the skills to exploit that. He sees the potential for disaster if Krylov hesitates, but believes the path to victory is clear via takedowns and ground control.

"Yeah, I mean, I'll take Krylov."
LOSS vs Dominick Reyes
KO R1 2:24 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 4 of 22 18% 3 of 16 1 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 5 of 14 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 4 of 22 18% 3 of 16 1 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 5 of 14 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor picks Krylov, agreeing with Zane that Krylov's chain wrestling and durability are key. He notes that Reyes has shown good basic takedown defense but has not faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Connor also points out that Krylov's approach of putting opponents on one leg and making them hop is effective against bigger fighters. He acknowledges that if Reyes can stuff the first few takedowns, he could hurt Krylov, but believes Krylov's pressure will eventually pay off.

"I think I have to pick Nikita Crowe. Because two, the other thing that I'm looking at then too is not only has Krylov not been knocked out, but how many takedowns does Krylov go for? Really? And dozens? The …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi notes that Dominick Reyes got back on track with a knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one. He describes Nikita Krylov as a wild man with a karate style that runs forward, which allowed Reyes to counter him. He is happy for Reyes' comeback story.

"Dominic Ray has got back on track in an emphatic fashion. You know, knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Lucrative James leans towards Nikita Krylov, citing his durability, pace, and ability to break opponents. He thinks Krylov's hurricane style and wrestling pressure will wear down Reyes. He acknowledges Reyes' power and step-back left hand but believes Krylov's chin and volume will be too much. He notes that Reyes has been knocked out multiple times, while Krylov has shown better durability. He says it's a close fight and he wouldn't lay juice on Krylov, but if forced to pick, he sides with Krylov inside the distance.

He predicts Krylov wins inside the distance.
"I'm going to side with Kryov here. I'll say he gets it done inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, citing his relentless chain wrestling and ability to overwhelm opponents with volume. He notes that Reyes has good first-layer takedown defense but has rarely faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Zane also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out, only submitted, and that Reyes lacks the submission threat to finish him on the ground. He believes Krylov's wrestling pressure will be too much for Reyes to handle over three rounds.

"I think I have to pick Nikita Crowe. Because two, the other thing that I'm looking at then too is not only has Krylov not been knocked out, but how many takedowns does Krylov go for? Really? And dozens? The …"
WIN vs Ryan Spann
Submission (triangle choke) R1 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 7 of 12 58% 24 of 31 2 of 2 100% 2 2 2:39
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 2 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 7 of 12 58% 24 of 31 2 of 2 100% 2 2 2:39
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 2 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-170), Spann (+145)

Round 1
Two weeks later than expected, fans in the building should soon be treated to an all-action slugfest in what was supposed to be the UFC Vegas 70 headliner. A combined 38 first-round finishes have come between Krylov (29-9, 10-7 UFC) and Spann (21-7, 7-2 UFC), with stellar stoppage rates of 93% for the former and 86% for the Texan. Referee Herb Dean better buckle up for this one, although he is able to take solace knowing it is still a matchup without any bad blood. With the cancelation a few weeks ago, this is no longer taking place at light heavyweight, and instead at 215 pounds. Fists are bumped before they throw down, and when they do, it should be one heck of a show. Spann reaches out with an early jab as Krylov kicks, and Spann follows it with a few punches that knock Krylov around. Krylov gains space after bouncing off the fence, and he pops Spann with a right hand to wobble the Texan’s legs. Krylov advances to try to keep swinging, and he ends up clinched up with his opponent. Spann throws Krylov down to the mat, and he lands on top and starts fishing for a submission. Krylov sits up and finds his neck in submission danger, but he shucks off the first guillotine choke try as Spann switches to a brabo choke. Krylov stays patient, and Spann adjusts his head and settles down with another guillotine. “The Miner” digs through the pain and discomfort to yank his neck free, and the two fighters work their way back upright. Krylov holds Spann from behind and kicks him in the side of the face awkwardly, and he drags Spann down to the ground. Spann turns the tables to take Krylov down, and Spann winds up in a guillotine choke threat on the other side. Spann slides out the back door and frees himself, and he grabs a two-on-one wrist lock in an attempt to scramble out. Krylov stays tightly pressed to him and lands a few punches that might have hit the back of the head. Spann stands up and Krylov falls over, and Spann jumps on top of him to drop hammers down.
When Spann lands on top, Krylov wraps his legs up around his opponent's head to tighten up a triangle choke. Spann knows this time, there is no way out, as he fell right into a trap. “Superman” is forced to surrender to the choke, as the crowd is silenced at the sudden conclusion of the mighty grappling battle.
This gives the victor, who is not representing a country given the Russian invasion of his home country of Ukraine, his 30th pro win and 28th by stoppage.

The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Ryan Spann R1 3:38 via Submission (Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Angelo originally picked Nikita Krylov due to his wrestling and grinding ability, but the illness has significantly reduced his confidence. He still thinks Krylov will win if he is 100%, but he is no longer betting on him. He suggests a prop bet on Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) because Spann is dangerous and the fight is now three rounds instead of five.

Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) bet suggestion
"I'm no longer gonna bet on the key to cry love I've lost that much confidence him I think he probably still wins this... but the bet is definitely going to be Ryan span inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann for the slight upset, noting both fighters have durability issues. He questions Krylov's submission defense (submitted six times) and Spann's chin. Brady expects a first-round finish, predicting Spann locks up a guillotine when Krylov shoots for takedowns. He has low confidence but thinks someone gets finished early.

win by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna say span locks up locks up a submission here in the very first round hard to be confident in picking a winner in this fight but I'll take span for the slight upset"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Cody flips to Ryan Spann, citing Krylov's recent illness and the change from five rounds to three rounds. He thinks Spann's cardio is less of a concern in a three-round fight and notes Spann's submission threat. He believes the narrative of Krylov pulling out is enough to take the underdog.

"I think I'm flip-flopping over to Ryan span and again it's for like nothing other than just bad juju narrative by Nikita Karlov pulls out of a fight two weeks ago"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor picks Krylov, emphasizing his durability and relentless wrestling. He notes that Spann has poor takedown defense (83% takedown defense when excluding the Enrique fight) and that Krylov will keep shooting takedowns. Connor also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out and is crafty in finding ways to win. He expects Krylov to survive Spann's early power and take over with grappling.

Odds mentioned: Krylov opened -170, now -172; Spann opened +145, now +143.
"I think the only reason I would ever pick Ryan Spann in this fight is on the idea that he would knock Nikita Krylov out and that has never happened. ... Krylov, he wrestles everyone. That is really truly how …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

I think Krylov's improved grappling and takedown game will be key. He should drag Spann to the ground and work from top position, but he must be careful of Spann's guillotine. Spann's early power is a threat, but if Krylov survives the first round, he can take over. I expect a submission or TKO in the latter rounds. However, the early threat from Spann makes me hesitant to bet this fight.

Krylov inside the distance, by submission
"give me krilloff inside the distance let's say by submission but that early threat from Ryan span is going to be it's going to be a lot which will likely keep me off of this fight completely"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Paul picks Krylov but with less confidence than two weeks ago due to Krylov pulling out of the previous fight. He notes Krylov's improvements and path to victory via takedowns, but questions why Krylov pulled out. He thinks the -170 price is about right and calls it a stay-away.

"crylove is still the pick but I'm even less confident in it this week than I was last week or two weeks ago"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov, citing Ryan Spann's weight cut issues and the fact that Spann missed weight in his last fight. He believes Krylov's illness may help him keep weight down, while Spann will struggle with two weight cuts back-to-back. He predicts Krylov will push the pace, take Spann down, and get a TKO or submission in the later rounds.

by TKO or submission, second or third round
"I'm gonna trust in Nikita krylov even though he was Ill been two weeks he's definitely recovered since then I think the illness will help him keep his weight down"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He highlights Spann's terrible takedown defense and Krylov's durability. Zane notes that Krylov is not a clean technician but makes good decisions and is flexible. He expects Krylov to take Spann down and grind out a win, as Spann is chinny and tense.

Odds mentioned: Krylov opened -170, now -172; Spann opened +145, now +143.
"I got a numbers like that. I mean, even with the 50%, how do you not pick Krylov? You know, he's going to keep trying."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 42 of 81 51% 108 of 157 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Volkan Oezdemir 0 57 of 121 47% 171 of 251 7 of 20 35% 1 0 9:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 27 of 50 54% 46 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Volkan Oezdemir 0 26 of 58 44% 31 of 64 2 of 7 28% 1 0 2:02
2 Nikita Krylov 0 11 of 18 61% 42 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Volkan Oezdemir 0 11 of 27 40% 54 of 78 3 of 8 37% 0 0 3:28
3 Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 13 30% 20 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Volkan Oezdemir 0 20 of 36 55% 86 of 109 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 42 of 81 51% 35 of 72 3 of 3 4 of 6 34 of 68 5 of 9 3 of 4
Volkan Oezdemir 57 of 121 47% 42 of 100 12 of 18 3 of 3 38 of 93 12 of 17 7 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 27 of 50 54% 24 of 47 0 of 0 3 of 3 20 of 39 4 of 7 3 of 4
Volkan Oezdemir 26 of 58 44% 17 of 46 7 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 45 8 of 10 1 of 3
2 Nikita Krylov 11 of 18 61% 8 of 14 2 of 2 1 of 2 10 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 11 of 27 40% 10 of 24 0 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 23 0 of 2 2 of 2
3 Nikita Krylov 4 of 13 30% 3 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 20 of 36 55% 15 of 30 5 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 25 4 of 5 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He notes Oezdemir looked off in his last fight against Paul Craig and is getting older. Krylov has multiple paths to victory: knockout on the feet or submission on the ground, with 27 of 28 wins inside the distance. He believes Krylov's pressure and finishing ability will be too much for Oezdemir.

first round knockout
"I think krilloff to win by I'll say first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Cody picks Krylov, noting his fast starts and power. He thinks Krylov can catch Oezdemir early and finish him. Cody acknowledges Krylov's poor decisions and gas tank but believes Oezdemir's best days are behind him. He sees Krylov as the better fighter at this point.

"I will go with Nikki to cry"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov to win, believing Krylov is showing the best version of himself while Volkan Oezdemir is fizzling out. He notes Krylov's improved submission defense and well-rounded game, and that he performed well against top competition like Magomed Ankalaev. Levi thinks Oezdemir is a traditional kickboxer who has declined, while Krylov blends punches, kicks, and takedowns. He does not see much value in the line but picks Krylov.

"I just see uh Nikita Krill out coming out here winning this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Paul leans Oezdemir as an underdog, citing his takedown defense and experience. He notes that only Daniel Cormier has taken Oezdemir down more than once. Paul thinks Krylov's wrestling is overrated and that Oezdemir will make it a slow fight. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Oezdemir.

"I'm leaning towards Vulcan as an underdog in this spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov over Volkan Oezdemir, despite Oezdemir's win over Paul Craig. He notes Krylov was dominating Craig before getting caught, while Oezdemir looked slow and tired. He highlights Krylov's reach advantage, head kicks, and momentum from a KO win, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"I'm going with Nikki to kryl off over volcano's DeMent"
KO (punches) R1 1:07 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 2 26 of 44 59% 26 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Alexander Gustafsson 0 5 of 8 62% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 2 26 of 44 59% 26 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Alexander Gustafsson 0 5 of 8 62% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 26 of 44 59% 24 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 2 15 of 29 4 of 5 7 of 10
Alexander Gustafsson 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 26 of 44 59% 24 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 2 15 of 29 4 of 5 7 of 10
Alexander Gustafsson 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Angelo picks Nikita Krylov but is hesitant due to Gustafsson's two-year layoff and three-fight losing streak. He notes Krylov is well-rounded and has a good chin, but questions his fight IQ after the Paul Craig loss. He says the odds favoring Krylov are surprising and calls it a no-bet situation, expecting Gustafsson to look older and slower.

no bet
"nikita is the pick i would love if alexander augustine looked great though but i just don't see that happening"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov to win by finish (ground and pound or submission in round 2). He is hesitant due to question marks about Gustafsson's layoff and motivation. He notes Gustafsson hasn't won in five years and hasn't fought in two years. Krylov is more active and dangerous, but if Gustafsson shows up motivated, it's a different fight.

Krylov by finish in round 2
"give me krill off for those reasons give me krill off to win i will say like second round uh grounded pound or second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson

Cody leans towards Alexander Gustafsson, citing that his losses are to top competition and he may have recaptured motivation after a two-year layoff. He notes Krylov has durability issues and tends to fade in later rounds. Cody thinks Gustafsson can use his mobility and grappling to neutralize Krylov and win a decision. He acknowledges there are many red flags but sees value in the underdog.

under 90.5 fantasy score for Krylov on PrizePicks
"i would classify it as a dogger pass so ever so slightly i'm i'm just going to jump into the unknown and go with gustafsson"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Daniel Levi confidently picks Nikita Krylov, arguing that Gustafsson is past his prime and has already retired once, saying he didn't have what it takes anymore. He notes that Krylov is only 30 and entering his prime, with a well-rounded game and a Kyokushin karate background. Levi acknowledges Krylov's occasional bonehead mistakes but believes he will outwork Gustafsson. He also mentions that he likes fading washed-up fighters and that Krylov is a motivated underdog in this spot.

Mentions he is looking to bet Krylov, implying a betting interest.
"i think nikita krillov is the guy who's been watching alexander gustafson his entire career and this is like a big motivating fight for him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson

Gustafsson looks in phenomenal shape and has a big skill advantage over Krylov. His takedown defense is 83%. Krylov's wins are over lesser competition. If Gustafsson is even 70% of his peak, he wins handily. However, motivation is a question mark, so I'm passing on betting but predicting Gustafsson.

"I am going to make that switch I am going to go on the Customs inside"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson

Paul picks Alexander Gustafsson at plus money, calling minus 200 on Krylov ridiculous. He notes Gustafsson has looked horrible recently but his losses are to elite fighters. Paul admits he doesn't have the courage to bet Gustafsson confidently and will wait for weigh-ins. He says he won't bet money on it.

"i'll pick gustafson for the purposes of the show because it's plus money and i think minus 200 on krylov is is kind of ridiculous"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov to win by submission in the first or second round. He questions Gustafsson's reasons for returning and notes Krylov is underrated. Krylov put a pace on Ankalaev and has great stand-up. Gustafsson has poor ground game and has been submitted when taken down. Krylov will take him down and secure a submission.

first or second round submission
"i'm gonna swipe with nikita krylov getting this one done against alexander gustafsson second round first round rooney choke submission"
LOSS vs Paul Craig
Submission (triangle choke) R1 3:57 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Mar 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 19 of 25 76% 30 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:49
Nikita Krylov 0 2 of 3 66% 11 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 19 of 25 76% 30 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:49
Nikita Krylov 0 2 of 3 66% 11 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 19 of 25 76% 18 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 22
Nikita Krylov 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 19 of 25 76% 18 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 22
Nikita Krylov 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Angelo picks Paul Craig as an underdog, noting his incredible toughness and submission threat. He thinks Krylov is more well-rounded but less dangerous, and will likely win a decision if he fights perfectly. He expects Craig to withstand a beating and find a finish on the ground. He plans to bet on Paul Craig wins inside the distance (decision no action) at plus money.

bet: Paul Craig wins inside the distance (decision no action) at +200
"i like paul craig in the underdog spot and i think he can win this fight he is my underdog pick here but betting wise i will likely do a paul craig wins inside the distance decision no action bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He likes Krylov's knockout power and believes Paul Craig's chin is suspect. Brady notes that if the fight goes to the mat, Craig is dangerous with submissions, but he thinks Krylov can avoid the grappling and finish early. He also mentions Craig's talk of retirement as a potential factor.

first round knockout
"give me kriloff to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Cody picks Krylov but is hesitant, noting Krylov's tendency to make bad decisions and engage in grappling with submission experts. He thinks Krylov should win if he keeps it standing, but worries he might get caught. He prefers Craig by submission as a prop.

paul craig by submission plus 450
"krylov i guess is the pick but i don't love it i'm staying away from it like the plague"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Daniel Levi picks Paul Craig by submission at +450, noting that Nikita Krylov has five career submission losses and a history of making bonehead mistakes on the mat. He believes Craig only needs one opportunity to snatch a submission, as seen against Jamal Hill. Levi acknowledges Krylov may win the minutes and has knockout potential, but at plus money, he's willing to bet on Craig's opportunistic submission game. He also mentions the hometown advantage for Craig in the UK.

Craig by submission +450
"craig by sub at uh plus 450 are you [ __ ] me right now plus 450 that's all that's craig's best value"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Krylov has power striking and good combinations, which should overwhelm Craig on the feet. However, five of Krylov's eight losses are by submission, a huge red flag against a submission specialist like Craig. Craig is dangerous off his back, constantly throwing up submissions. The fight likely ends inside the distance, but Krylov's striking advantage should lead to a knockout. I'm picking Krylov by KO, but the fight doesn't go to decision is my favorite bet.

Fight doesn't go to decision (parlay piece); Krylov by knockout
"Official prediction is Nikita Krylov by knockout but the fight doesn't go to the decision is probably something that I'll be parlaying."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Paul picks Krylov confidently, arguing that Krylov has fought elite competition and improved his takedown defense. He believes Krylov's striking is far superior and that Craig's wins are overrated. He thinks Krylov will win by KO if he fights smart.

"i just got to go with more probabilities he doesn't get caught and he probably smashes him out of here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The Guru picks Nikita Krylov, arguing he is underrated and has better performances than Paul Craig. He notes Krylov held his own against Glover Teixeira and outgrappled Magomed Ankalaev in round one. He criticizes Craig's chin and mentions Craig's retirement talk. He predicts a first-round TKO on the feet, as Craig tends to go down when hit clean.

first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with nikita krylov... i'm gonna call a first round tko for nikita cried off here on the feet"
Volkan Oezdemir - Fight History
KO R1 1:27 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Volkan Oezdemir 1 13 of 35 37% 14 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alonzo Menifield 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Volkan Oezdemir 1 13 of 35 37% 14 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alonzo Menifield 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Volkan Oezdemir 13 of 35 37% 12 of 33 0 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alonzo Menifield 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Volkan Oezdemir 13 of 35 37% 12 of 33 0 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alonzo Menifield 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alonzo Menifield vs. Volkan Oezdemir
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Oezdemir (-240); Menifield (+190)

Round 1
With dueling finish rates right at or around 75%, a pair of fist-first light heavyweights meet for the first time despite a litany of experience in the Octagon thus far. “No Time” Oezdemir (20-8, 8-7 UFC) knows there is no time for a loss, as that would drop his promotional record to .500. Menifield (17-5-1, 10-5-1 UFC) is a long way away from that line, and he has put a pair of knockout losses last year in the rear-view mirror with two victories thus far in 2025. Someone’s fortunes will drop at the end of what should be a concussive matchup, one that kicks off in front of referee Marc Goddard with a sporting touch of gloves.
Oezdemir wades towards Menifield, but he ends up getting smacked with a surprise left hook on the entry. Oezdemir backs off to find another way in, and he jabs to set up twos and a body kick. Menifield bounces off the fence to shake it off, and he avoids a swatting right hand while strafing to the side. Oezdemir stays after him with punches that bounce off the guard, and he squares up to drill Menifield in the chest with a knee. Menifield fires back with an overhand right that is out of range, and another vicious knee from “No Time” crashes into Menifield’s chin. The Swiss fighter stands Menifield up with a barrage of fiery fists, knocking Menifield’s head around and putting him in jeopardy. Menifield sways and moves, but Oezdemir’s boxing is relentless and destructive.
Oezdemir stuns Menifield with a left hand and finishes the job with a bevy of brutal blows. Like a puppet that’s had its strings cut, Menifield slumps to his side and is kept upright only because of the fence next to him.
The lights are on, but no one’s home. Goddard recognizes that Menifield is dreaming of his ancestors and halts the fight, and he immediately tends to the wrecked Texan. The “boop” is back.

The Official Result
Volkan Oezdemir def. Alonzo Menifield R1 1:27 via KO (Knee and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Angelo leans Volkan Oezdemir over Alonzo Menifield, despite rooting for Menifield. He notes Oezdemir's leg kicks were effective against Carlos Ulberg and could neutralize Menifield's power. Both are similar aging vets with above-average striking and below-average wrestling, but Oezdemir is cleaner and has better cardio. Angelo calls the odds an atrocity and suggests value on Menifield.

Plus three and a half on Alonzo is not a terrible bet; Alonzo inside the distance decision no action is not a terrible bet.
"I'm gonna pick Vulcan Odeir. These odds are an atrocity."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir by decision, noting his higher level of competition and defensive responsibility. He expects the fight to go the distance and favors Oezdemir's output and experience over Menifield.

decision
"Oezdemir by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Cody picks Volkan Oezdemir confidently, despite feeling it might be a trap. He notes that Menifield has only beaten green or inexperienced fighters and has poor takedown defense. Volkan has fought higher-level competition and has power. Cody believes Volkan's experience and power will be too much for Menifield, who tends to freeze against power punchers.

"I think Vulcan just stiffs him to be honest with you."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Connor picks Oezdemir, noting that Menifield lacks the tools to exploit Oezdemir's weaknesses. He explains that Oezdemir struggles against a good jab or aggressive ground game, but Menifield relies on power and size, which Oezdemir can handle. Connor cites Oezdemir's wins over similar fighters like Johnny Walker and Paul Craig.

"I just got to pick Vulcan Uzdimir here out of hand."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Lucrative James picks Volkan Oezdemir but with low confidence, calling it a close fight. He notes Volkan's technical striking and leg kicks, but acknowledges Menifield's athleticism and power. He thinks Volkan will win a decision by doing slightly more on the feet, but admits he may bet on Menifield as an underdog. He also mentions the over/under prop.

over 1.5 rounds mentioned as potential plus money play
"I'm going to pick Vulcan just because I think he's going to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Oezdemir has power and can exploit Menifield's durability issues. Menifield is a live underdog with power of his own. The under 2.5 rounds is a better bet than the moneyline, as both have knockout potential.

under 2.5 rounds at -135
"I'm going to go Uzamir by knockout as my official prediction, but I do like the under two and a half most in this matchup."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Paul picks Volkan Oezdemir, agreeing with Cody. He notes that all metrics point to Volkan, and Menifield's wins are against lower-level opponents. Paul mentions that Menifield has been knocked out quickly by power punchers, and Volkan has the power to do the same.

"I mean, all the metrics, all the stats, you look at the two of these match these guys, everything points towards Vulcan."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir over Alonzo Menifield, citing Oezdemir's experience and takedown defense. He notes Menifield's poor decision-making and believes Oezdemir will out-strike him. He predicts a second-round TKO win for Oezdemir.

second round TKO
"I'm going to go with Volkan Oezdemir. I think he'll sting Alonzo Menifield with hooks on the outside."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Oezdemir. He notes that Menifield's best chance is if Oezdemir has a bad night, but Oezdemir's pressure and aggression should overwhelm Menifield. Zane highlights Oezdemir's experience against higher-level competition and Menifield's tendency to lose to fighters who don't respect his power.

"I'm taking Uzdimir as well. Uzdimir is just not one of those guys. You can have a whole lot of faith."
LOSS vs Carlos Ulberg
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Ulberg 0 96 of 183 52% 96 of 183 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Volkan Oezdemir 0 98 of 204 48% 98 of 204 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Ulberg 0 29 of 51 56% 29 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Volkan Oezdemir 0 24 of 60 40% 24 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Ulberg 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Volkan Oezdemir 0 29 of 60 48% 29 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carlos Ulberg 0 39 of 73 53% 39 of 73 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Volkan Oezdemir 0 45 of 84 53% 45 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Ulberg 96 of 183 52% 51 of 131 17 of 24 28 of 28 95 of 182 1 of 1 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 98 of 204 48% 81 of 182 9 of 13 8 of 9 98 of 204 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Ulberg 29 of 51 56% 12 of 30 8 of 12 9 of 9 28 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 24 of 60 40% 18 of 51 3 of 5 3 of 4 24 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Ulberg 28 of 59 47% 11 of 40 4 of 6 13 of 13 28 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 29 of 60 48% 23 of 53 2 of 3 4 of 4 29 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carlos Ulberg 39 of 73 53% 28 of 61 5 of 6 6 of 6 39 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 45 of 84 53% 40 of 78 4 of 5 1 of 1 45 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo initially was very confident in Ulberg but became more hesitant after reviewing Oezdemir's resume and chin. He still picks Ulberg as the much better striker but acknowledges Oezdemir's takedown threat and experience. He notes Oezdemir hasn't been knocked out since 2020.

"I am still going to pick ulberg here I'm going to stick with my gut but the confidence took a little bit of a hit"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by decision. He believes Ulberg is the better striker with more volume and power, and Oezdemir is unlikely to wrestle. Brady notes Oezdemir has looked like he's losing a step, citing the Paul Craig fight where he seemed slow. He expects Ulberg to outwork Oezdemir over 15 minutes in a competitive but clear decision.

"I like orberg to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by decision just doing more across 15 minutes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Cody picks Ulberg, citing his speed, power, and improved cardio and grappling. He notes that Oezdemir is a first-round knockout threat but fades in later rounds and has been taken down. Ulberg's diverse skill set and ability to mix takedowns give him multiple paths to victory. He expects Ulberg to win by decision or late knockout.

"I got alberg alberg a i Sav by decision I kind of think he could knock him out so I don't really like that I'll probably just play the money line"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Connor also picks Ulberg, but notes that Oezdemir could win if he pressures and lands big combinations. He compares Ulberg to Charbel Magomedov, saying he is fast but vulnerable when pressured. Connor expects a sticky split decision where Ulberg jabs from range and Oezdemir has moments of success, but Ulberg's speed and reach should edge it.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'll take Olberg as well, but it could easily be a sticky split decision where Olberg is getting backed up and touching Oezdemir up with jabs."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel Vreeland is confident Carlos Ulberg will win, citing his superior athleticism, speed, and slick striking. He praises Ulberg's left hook and step-back counter. He views Volkan Oezdemir as a solid but limited gatekeeper who is too meat-and-potatoes for the new breed. Vreeland predicts a left hook knockout by Ulberg.

by KO (left hook)
"I think it's gonna be a left hook Knockout by Carlos olberg over Vulcan usir"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)

James does not give a clear pick for this fight, citing inside information from Ulberg's camp that he keeps private. He notes the odds seem based on recency bias and that Ulberg is stepping up in competition. He suggests the line may be off but does not reveal his lean.

"I'm not going to go into the stylist Stylistics of this matchup right now on this video"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Paul agrees, highlighting Ulberg's speed and technical striking advantage. He thinks Oezdemir will struggle to land his power shots and may force a dogfight, but Ulberg's improved cardio and fight IQ will carry him. He notes that Ulberg's grappling is a question mark, but Oezdemir doesn't have the wrestling to exploit it.

"I think Goldberg wins um minus 250 seems a little bit risque but I he's got all the tools in the shed to to make this work"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg over Volkan Oezdemir, despite acknowledging Oezdemir's potential to fraud-check prospects. He notes Oezdemir's hype was built on not getting hit, but since then only has a KO over Johnny Walker and couldn't finish Paul Craig. He believes Ulberg is more talented, trains at a good gym (City Kickboxing), and is now or never at 34. He predicts a competitive decision win for Ulberg.

decision win, competitive 29-28
"I'm going to go with Carlos alberg getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Zane picks Ulberg, arguing that his jab and range control will frustrate Oezdemir, who struggles against kickboxers that sit on a jab. He notes that Oezdemir's poor defensive striking and fragile confidence will be exposed if Ulberg can stick him from distance. Zane compares it to the Rakic fight, expecting a split decision where Ulberg's jab wins rounds.

Oezdemir opened +217, now +202; Ulberg opened -245, now -235.
"I think that Olberg can offer the thing that will most likely prevent Oezdemir from doing what will win him the fight. He can stick a jab on him."
WIN vs Johnny Walker
KO (punch) R1 2:28 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Volkan Oezdemir 0 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 2 37 of 67 55% 37 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Volkan Oezdemir 0 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 2 37 of 67 55% 37 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Volkan Oezdemir 15 of 33 45% 6 of 20 3 of 6 6 of 7 15 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 37 of 67 55% 22 of 49 9 of 12 6 of 6 33 of 59 2 of 4 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Volkan Oezdemir 15 of 33 45% 6 of 20 3 of 6 6 of 7 15 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 37 of 67 55% 22 of 49 9 of 12 6 of 6 33 of 59 2 of 4 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Angelo picks Johnny Walker, citing his size, athleticism, speed, and power. He thinks Walker's unpredictability and creativity will be key. He acknowledges Walker's chin issues and unreliability but believes the height and athleticism advantage will be too much for Oezdemir. He does not have a bet on the fight but notes the odds are close, making it a good value play.

No bet placed; odds close so potential value
"Johnny Walker is gonna be the pick I'll tell you right now I don't have a bet on this fight because I don't trust Johnny in that chin but these odds make it like these are the fights where you …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir hesitantly, calling it a coin flip. He favors Oezdemir's durability and output over Johnny Walker's inconsistency. Brady notes Walker's tendency to be hesitant after knockouts and expects a close, possibly boring decision. He acknowledges that anything can happen in a Johnny Walker fight.

"give me uzir because he's going to be more durable which is not hard uh for Johnny Walker to for anybody to be more durable than him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Cody picks Walker, citing his improved fight IQ under SBG Ireland, using length and distance to outpoint opponents. He notes Oezdemir's reliance on power and low output, and believes Walker can avoid the big shot and win a decision or late finish.

"I'm going to take Johnny Walker"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Daniel Vreeland leans slightly towards Johnny Walker, citing his unorthodox attacks and athleticism. He notes Oezdemir's gas tank issues and believes Walker can cause problems with range and unpredictability. However, he acknowledges Walker's chin vulnerability and the possibility of getting knocked out.

"I'm gonna lean slightly ever so slightly with Johnny Walker"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Jacob picks Oezdemir, citing his durability and power. He does not trust Johnny Walker's chin and believes Oezdemir will eventually land. He notes that Johnny Walker as a dog (+150 or more) would be worth a bet, but as a favorite he cannot pick him. He thinks Oezdemir's durability will be the difference.

"Johnny Walker just to me is not a a durable guy at this point I like vulcan's dur durability"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

JP picks Walker, citing his size, power, and unorthodox style. He expects a KO but acknowledges it could go to decision. He doubts Oezdemir's grappling ability. Brevan agrees, noting Oezdemir's experience and calf kicks but believes Walker's size and explosiveness will be too much. He predicts Walker by KO/TKO or decision, and mentions Walker's need for a comeback win after losses to Ankalaev.

Walker by KO (prop bet)
"I'm going Walker by KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear winner pick but suggests the over 1.5 rounds as a play. He notes both fighters have become more methodical and that Walker's new style may lead to a boring decision. He doesn't commit to a side.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think the best play is probably the over one and a half"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir over Johnny Walker, expressing frustration with Walker's lack of fundamentals. He notes that Walker has not learned to jab despite his reach advantage and often puts himself in bad positions. He believes Oezdemir is composed, has good recent form, and will likely catch Walker with a low kick heavy game plan and finish him by TKO. He admits Walker could win at any time but trusts Oezdemir's chin and discipline.

TKO
"I'm just going to go volcanos to here dude I'm just going to go vulcanos to me probably chins Walker [__] Johnny Walker dude I want him to win I root for Johnny Walker every time but every fight I'm …"
WIN vs Bogdan Guskov
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:46 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Volkan Oezdemir 1 26 of 46 56% 36 of 64 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:23
Bogdan Guskov 0 8 of 25 32% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Volkan Oezdemir 1 26 of 46 56% 36 of 64 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:23
Bogdan Guskov 0 8 of 25 32% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Volkan Oezdemir 26 of 46 56% 19 of 37 1 of 2 6 of 7 15 of 32 1 of 1 10 of 13
Bogdan Guskov 8 of 25 32% 7 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 1 8 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Volkan Oezdemir 26 of 46 56% 19 of 37 1 of 2 6 of 7 15 of 32 1 of 1 10 of 13
Bogdan Guskov 8 of 25 32% 7 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 1 8 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Angelo leans towards Bogdan Guskov, calling him the more dangerous guy with well-rounded skills. He notes Volkan Oezdemir has a weak chin and has fought top competition, but Guskov's power and patience on the ground could be key. He hopes for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.

waiting for round props to bet under 2.5 rounds
"I am going to lean danger I am going to pick the more dangerous guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Big Brady picks Oezdemir, despite acknowledging his recent decline and poor performance against Paul Craig. He views Guskov as a 'fraud' with poor cardio, striking defense, and competition level. He expects Oezdemir to finish Guskov early, likely by first-round KO, as this is the easiest fight of Oezdemir's UFC tenure.

Oezdemir wins by first-round KO
"give me Vulcan usdamir to finish Gus Gob and I think it probably happens early as well... give me Volcan ko1"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Cody picks Oezdemir but is hesitant, acknowledging Guskov's first-round KO power and the trend of debuting underdogs winning. He notes Oezdemir has struggled lately, with low volume and no knockdowns in four years, but has elite training and experience. Guskov is a wild card who has only faced regional competition. Cody thinks Oezdemir can point-fight to a decision but Guskov is live for an early finish.

"I guess I will go Vulcan who's Demir but again if you were forced to pull some underdogs here and there you know Gustav's a guy that's at least considered live in my opinion"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, acknowledging that Oezdemir has shown regression but believes the experience gap is massive. He notes that Oezdemir has fought the who's who of the division, while Guskov is an unproven newcomer with a questionable chin. Levi admits Oezdemir hasn't finished anyone since 2019 and his takedown defense has declined, but he still thinks Oezdemir has enough to win. He is not confident enough to offer a bet, calling it a 'see how it goes' fight.

"I still think he's got enough to win this fight so I'm gonna pick him for that reason"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 2, 2023 (fight day)
Bogdan Guskov

Lucrative James is on Guskov moneyline, believing Oezdemir has been on a downtrend since the Jiri knockout, with worse reaction time and chin. He thinks Guskov has true power, shown by knockouts in multiple ways (elbows, jabs, straight hands). He notes Guskov's submissions are also good, and he has a prop on Guskov by submission at 20-1. He argues that heavyweights with knockout power can step up in competition more easily because they only need one shot.

Bogdan Guskov by submission (+2000)
"I actually bet bogged down goose golf so I'll say that straight off top... I think he has a lot of tools that can make Vulcan ozdamere pay."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

I'm picking Oezdemir here. He has a huge experience advantage and I expect a very pissed off version of him after his last fight. He should use his leg kicking game to slow down Guskov and then find his knockout power within the first 10 minutes. Guskov is a power puncher who finishes early, but when he faces resistance he struggles. Oezdemir's power and experience should be too much.

"I think we'll see Vulcan was the mayor use the combination of his Lane kicking game to slow down gooskov and then really start talking all with the strikes where he should be able to find that no time power …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Paul picks Oezdemir but is scared, recalling Oezdemir's poor performance against Krylov where he was mauled. He compares Guskov to Nursulton Ruziboev, a debuting fighter who crushed a veteran. Paul notes Guskov has first-round KO potential and is a low-owned DFS play. He won't bet the -180 but will pick Oezdemir.

"I'm gonna pick who's Demir with you but like it kind of reminds me of the situation with that uh nurse Sultan Roosevelt Guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir by late second-round TKO, noting that Oezdemir has improved technically and has gone to decisions with tough opponents. He acknowledges Guskov is dangerous but believes Oezdemir will weather early rough moments and find a finish as the fight progresses.

"I'm gonna go volcanoes damir late second round TKO"
LOSS vs Nikita Krylov
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 42 of 81 51% 108 of 157 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Volkan Oezdemir 0 57 of 121 47% 171 of 251 7 of 20 35% 1 0 9:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 27 of 50 54% 46 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Volkan Oezdemir 0 26 of 58 44% 31 of 64 2 of 7 28% 1 0 2:02
2 Nikita Krylov 0 11 of 18 61% 42 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Volkan Oezdemir 0 11 of 27 40% 54 of 78 3 of 8 37% 0 0 3:28
3 Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 13 30% 20 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Volkan Oezdemir 0 20 of 36 55% 86 of 109 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 42 of 81 51% 35 of 72 3 of 3 4 of 6 34 of 68 5 of 9 3 of 4
Volkan Oezdemir 57 of 121 47% 42 of 100 12 of 18 3 of 3 38 of 93 12 of 17 7 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 27 of 50 54% 24 of 47 0 of 0 3 of 3 20 of 39 4 of 7 3 of 4
Volkan Oezdemir 26 of 58 44% 17 of 46 7 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 45 8 of 10 1 of 3
2 Nikita Krylov 11 of 18 61% 8 of 14 2 of 2 1 of 2 10 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 11 of 27 40% 10 of 24 0 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 23 0 of 2 2 of 2
3 Nikita Krylov 4 of 13 30% 3 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 20 of 36 55% 15 of 30 5 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 25 4 of 5 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He notes Oezdemir looked off in his last fight against Paul Craig and is getting older. Krylov has multiple paths to victory: knockout on the feet or submission on the ground, with 27 of 28 wins inside the distance. He believes Krylov's pressure and finishing ability will be too much for Oezdemir.

first round knockout
"I think krilloff to win by I'll say first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Cody picks Krylov, noting his fast starts and power. He thinks Krylov can catch Oezdemir early and finish him. Cody acknowledges Krylov's poor decisions and gas tank but believes Oezdemir's best days are behind him. He sees Krylov as the better fighter at this point.

"I will go with Nikki to cry"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov to win, believing Krylov is showing the best version of himself while Volkan Oezdemir is fizzling out. He notes Krylov's improved submission defense and well-rounded game, and that he performed well against top competition like Magomed Ankalaev. Levi thinks Oezdemir is a traditional kickboxer who has declined, while Krylov blends punches, kicks, and takedowns. He does not see much value in the line but picks Krylov.

"I just see uh Nikita Krill out coming out here winning this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Paul leans Oezdemir as an underdog, citing his takedown defense and experience. He notes that only Daniel Cormier has taken Oezdemir down more than once. Paul thinks Krylov's wrestling is overrated and that Oezdemir will make it a slow fight. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Oezdemir.

"I'm leaning towards Vulcan as an underdog in this spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov over Volkan Oezdemir, despite Oezdemir's win over Paul Craig. He notes Krylov was dominating Craig before getting caught, while Oezdemir looked slow and tired. He highlights Krylov's reach advantage, head kicks, and momentum from a KO win, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"I'm going with Nikki to kryl off over volcano's DeMent"
WIN vs Paul Craig
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Volkan Oezdemir 0 33 of 126 26% 41 of 136 0 of 15 0% 0 0 0:07
Paul Craig 0 72 of 129 55% 108 of 170 1 of 2 50% 0 0 5:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Volkan Oezdemir 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:07
Paul Craig 0 16 of 29 55% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:01
2 Volkan Oezdemir 0 16 of 53 30% 23 of 62 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 27 of 48 56% 47 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:09
3 Volkan Oezdemir 0 12 of 62 19% 13 of 63 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 29 of 52 55% 35 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Volkan Oezdemir 33 of 126 26% 18 of 102 10 of 19 5 of 5 32 of 120 1 of 3 0 of 3
Paul Craig 72 of 129 55% 45 of 101 10 of 11 17 of 17 50 of 97 6 of 6 16 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Volkan Oezdemir 5 of 11 45% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 16 of 29 55% 8 of 21 3 of 3 5 of 5 9 of 19 4 of 4 3 of 6
2 Volkan Oezdemir 16 of 53 30% 10 of 44 5 of 8 1 of 1 15 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
Paul Craig 27 of 48 56% 21 of 42 1 of 1 5 of 5 17 of 35 1 of 1 9 of 12
3 Volkan Oezdemir 12 of 62 19% 5 of 50 4 of 9 3 of 3 12 of 58 0 of 1 0 of 3
Paul Craig 29 of 52 55% 16 of 38 6 of 7 7 of 7 24 of 43 1 of 1 4 of 8
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Angelo picks Volkan Oezdemir, noting his 80% takedown defense and that he has no desire to grapple, unlike Paul Craig's previous opponents. He says Craig's only path is a submission, but Oezdemir will defend takedowns and outstrike him. He also suggests a prop bet on Paul Craig to win inside the distance with 'decision no action' as a safety net.

Paul Craig inside distance decision no action
"the pick's gonna be vulcan betting wise though i think this is a solid paul craig to win inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir to win by first-round knockout. He calls it a 'horrible matchup' for Paul Craig, as Oezdemir has elite takedown defense and no reason to grapple. Oezdemir has a massive striking advantage and power. Craig's path to victory is a Hail Mary submission, but Oezdemir should knock him out early.

Oezdemir by KO in round 1
"give me uzdemir to win who's the mirror to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Cody picks Volkan Oezdemir, agreeing that minus 150 is an excellent price. He notes Craig's wins come from opponents making mistakes and that Oezdemir has power and good takedown defense. Cody thinks Craig will shoot early, get stuffed, and then get knocked out. He also likes Oezdemir under 40.5 significant strikes because Craig either gets finished quickly or submits quickly.

Oezdemir under 40.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"i just added minus 146. vulcan uzdemir moneyline"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Daniel Levi hesitantly picks Paul Craig, acknowledging that Oezdemir will likely dominate until he gets caught in a submission. He notes that Craig has a knack for pulling off triangle chokes, and his opponents often get carried away and fall into his guard. Levi points out that Oezdemir has looked lost in his last two fights and may not be fully invested. He admits it's a risky pick but believes Craig can find an opportunistic submission again.

"i would pick paul craig to lose the entire fight until he wins it so yeah"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Oezdemir has 80% takedown defense and Craig's takedown game is not solid. Oezdemir will keep it standing and find the knockout. Craig's Cinderella run ends here. Oezdemir finishes him in round one or two.

fight doesn't go to decision (decent spot)
"I think Vulcan will keep the standing I think Vulcan will find that knockout I think he'll put him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Paul picks Volkan Oezdemir at -150, calling it a good value play. He believes Oezdemir can keep the fight standing and destroy Craig on the feet. Paul notes Craig's wrestling is not special and Oezdemir has good takedown defense. He thinks Craig's magic run will end eventually. Paul also likes Oezdemir under 40.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Oezdemir under 40.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"i think minus 150 uzdemir is actually a pretty good value play on this card"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Paul Craig

The MMA Guru leans towards Paul Craig, despite acknowledging he often picks against Craig and loses. He believes Craig's offensive grappling has improved significantly, as shown in his second fight with Shogun. Craig is training with Tom Aspinall and will mix in takedowns. Oezdemir has power but Craig can pull guard and has submission threats. The Guru expects Craig to get a takedown and dominate on the ground.

"i'm gonna slide with paul craig"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 1 66 of 108 61% 76 of 118 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:45
Volkan Oezdemir 0 48 of 102 47% 56 of 112 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 1 27 of 41 65% 27 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Volkan Oezdemir 0 16 of 36 44% 22 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Magomed Ankalaev 0 13 of 26 50% 23 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:54
Volkan Oezdemir 0 19 of 34 55% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Magomed Ankalaev 0 26 of 41 63% 26 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Volkan Oezdemir 0 13 of 32 40% 13 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 66 of 108 61% 43 of 82 20 of 23 3 of 3 59 of 100 6 of 7 1 of 1
Volkan Oezdemir 48 of 102 47% 23 of 67 3 of 12 22 of 23 41 of 92 7 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 27 of 41 65% 18 of 32 8 of 8 1 of 1 23 of 37 3 of 3 1 of 1
Volkan Oezdemir 16 of 36 44% 9 of 27 2 of 4 5 of 5 11 of 29 5 of 7 0 of 0
2 Magomed Ankalaev 13 of 26 50% 8 of 18 3 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 19 of 34 55% 6 of 16 1 of 5 12 of 13 17 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Magomed Ankalaev 26 of 41 63% 17 of 32 9 of 9 0 of 0 26 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 13 of 32 40% 8 of 24 0 of 3 5 of 5 13 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win a close decision. He notes Ankalaev is a good striker with a well-rounded game, but this is a step up in competition. Oezdemir is more hittable and has been finished before. He thinks Ankalaev will slightly edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns. He hates the price tag but believes Ankalaev gets it done.

"I think it's be close guys uh but yeah i'm going to go with inca live to get it done."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody is fully sold on Ankalaev, calling him a well-rounded package with wrestling, pressure, cardio, and submission game. He thinks Ankalaev could be the best LHW after Jones. He notes Oezdemir has decent takedown defense (80%) but has been inactive (only 2 fights in 2 years) and coming off a knee injury. He expects Ankalaev to pressure, tire Oezdemir, and get takedowns in later rounds.

"i'm fully sold on him i think he does everything excellent"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel picks Magomed Ankalaev, noting his improvement and discipline. He believes Oezdemir hasn't improved and is too basic, relying on hooks and overhands. Daniel thinks Ankalaev will pick him apart and possibly get a knockout. He acknowledges Oezdemir's toughness but sees Ankalaev as the more complete fighter with more ways to win.

predicts knockout
"i think he's gonna make a statement here i think he's gonna knock him out like finish him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Ankalaev is patient and disciplined, with excellent striking defense and takedowns. Oezdemir's volume could be a factor, but Ankalaev can win wherever the fight goes. He likely controls the fight and wins a decision, possibly with a submission if he grapples.

Ankalaev by decision +190, over 2.5 rounds +105, Ankalaev by submission +2500.
"My pick is going to be magamad on goliath uh and i'll take him to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul agrees strongly, saying Ankalaev has all the skills and on any given night could become champion. He thinks Ankalaev can beat Jan on his best night. He is not jumping off the Ankalaev train.

"i think anglais may be the best in the biz"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Volkan Oezdemir. He thinks Ankalaev is more technical on the feet and has great grappling to fall back on. He notes Oezdemir's recent KO loss to Prochazka and long layoff may affect his confidence and aggression. He expects Oezdemir to be hesitant, giving Ankalaev space to work. He predicts a close 29-28 decision for Ankalaev, possibly with Oezdemir winning the first round.

"i'm going to go with magamet ankle i have here over volcanoes to me i think he does get this one done"
KO (punch) R2 0:49 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 0 41 of 92 44% 44 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Volkan Oezdemir 1 33 of 73 45% 33 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 39 of 83 46% 42 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Volkan Oezdemir 0 26 of 60 43% 26 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Volkan Oezdemir 1 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 41 of 92 44% 30 of 76 3 of 6 8 of 10 41 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 33 of 73 45% 29 of 67 3 of 5 1 of 1 33 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 39 of 83 46% 28 of 67 3 of 6 8 of 10 39 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 26 of 60 43% 23 of 55 3 of 5 0 of 0 26 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 7 of 13 53% 6 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir by first-round knockout, citing his veteran experience and higher level of competition. He thinks Procházka is talented but this step up is too much, and Oezdemir can use takedowns or striking to finish him.

first round knockout
"give me uzdemir first round knockout ... i think this fight's going to be probably close until somebody gets knocked out and i think uzdemir is going to use that veteran experience"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, citing his experience against top competition (Reyes, Smith) and power. He criticizes Prochazka's competition level (washed-up veterans) and notes Prochazka puts weight on his front leg, leaving him open to calf kicks. Levi believes Oezdemir will clip Prochazka and get a KO, as Prochazka is not ready for this level yet.

predicts KO in second round
"I got owes the mirror man I think he's gonna hurt this kid and knock him out to be honest"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Procházka is a big light heavyweight with heavy hands and a path to victory via wrestling if needed. Oezdemir relies on leg kicks, but Procházka can counter them. Expects Procházka to put Oezdemir on his back and finish him, likely by first-round KO. The line at +140 is appealing, but staying away from UFC debutants.

first round KO, line +140
"I like Jimmy here I'll probably say first round KO"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

Expert Picks (5)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He notes Oezdemir looked off in his last fight against Paul Craig and is getting older. Krylov has multiple paths to victory: knockout on the feet or submission on the ground, with 27 of 28 wins inside the distance. He believes Krylov's pressure and finishing ability will be too much for Oezdemir.

first round knockout
"I think krilloff to win by I'll say first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Cody picks Krylov, noting his fast starts and power. He thinks Krylov can catch Oezdemir early and finish him. Cody acknowledges Krylov's poor decisions and gas tank but believes Oezdemir's best days are behind him. He sees Krylov as the better fighter at this point.

"I will go with Nikki to cry"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov to win, believing Krylov is showing the best version of himself while Volkan Oezdemir is fizzling out. He notes Krylov's improved submission defense and well-rounded game, and that he performed well against top competition like Magomed Ankalaev. Levi thinks Oezdemir is a traditional kickboxer who has declined, while Krylov blends punches, kicks, and takedowns. He does not see much value in the line but picks Krylov.

"I just see uh Nikita Krill out coming out here winning this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Paul leans Oezdemir as an underdog, citing his takedown defense and experience. He notes that only Daniel Cormier has taken Oezdemir down more than once. Paul thinks Krylov's wrestling is overrated and that Oezdemir will make it a slow fight. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Oezdemir.

"I'm leaning towards Vulcan as an underdog in this spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov over Volkan Oezdemir, despite Oezdemir's win over Paul Craig. He notes Krylov was dominating Craig before getting caught, while Oezdemir looked slow and tired. He highlights Krylov's reach advantage, head kicks, and momentum from a KO win, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"I'm going with Nikki to kryl off over volcano's DeMent"