UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad as an underdog, citing Belal's wrestling and fight IQ. He notes that Vicente Luque is dangerous on the feet and has submissions, but Belal can take him down and control the fight. He references Luque's fight with Kiesa where Kiesa had success taking Luque down but got too aggressive. Angelo believes Belal will stick to a wrestling game plan and win a decision.

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win, likely by finish. He notes that Luque is dangerous everywhere—on the feet and on the mat—and that Belal Muhammad's wrestling, while improved against Stephen Thompson, may not be enough to control Luque. He points out that Muhammad struggled to take down Diego Lima (1 for 10) and that Luque has solid takedown defense and submission threats. Brady expects Luque to hurt Muhammad and finish him in the second or third round.

Cody picks Luque but with hesitation, noting Belal's impressive wrestling against Wonderboy. He worries about Luque's cardio in a five-round fight and his takedown defense. However, he believes Luque's hand speed and striking will be key, and that Belal's record is deceiving. He sees danger if Belal extends the fight into later rounds.

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +155 underdog, emphasizing Belal's ability to adapt game plans, as seen against Stephen Thompson (wrestling) and Demian Maia (striking). He notes Belal's improved lateral movement, feints, and cardio, which should allow him to survive early danger and take over in championship rounds. Levi acknowledges Vicente Luque's elite finishing ability (second most finishes in welterweight history) and the danger of his calf kicks, left hook, and d'arce choke, but believes Belal's discipline, chain wrestling, and refusal to rush submissions will be key. He is concerned about Belal fighting during Ramadan but notes he has done so before and sounded sharp in interviews. Levi states he is biased due to his friendship with Belal but insists his analysis is objective.

Paul favors Vicente Luque, citing his power, finishing ability, and danger in guard if taken down. He notes Luque trains with many wrestlers and believes his striking is superior. He acknowledges Belal's wrestling but thinks Luque's path to victory is clearer, especially with a potential finish.

The MMA Guru picks Belal Muhammad despite being a big Vicente Luque fan. He believes Muhammad's volume and grappling will disrupt Luque's timing, and that Luque hates volume. He expects Muhammad to wear Luque down and submit him in the fourth or fifth round via rear-naked choke. He also accuses Muhammad of using steroids, citing his physique change.

Angelo picks Gadzhi Omargadzhiev as a slight favorite. He notes that Caio Borralho is a slick grappler with good submissions, but Gadzhi has more power, better wrestling, and better cardio to maintain a wrestling pace. He expects Gadzhi to push forward, get takedowns, and avoid submissions to win a decision. He cautions that Caio's bottom grappling is solid and he has nice sweeps.

Big Brady slightly edges with Caio Borralho (Kyle) as the underdog. He notes Borralho has an eight-inch reach advantage and better striking volume, and he likes his defensive grappling and takedown defense as a BJJ black belt. He sees two paths: either Omargadzhiev takes him down and controls, or Borralho keeps it standing and outstrikes him. Brady leans toward the latter, predicting a decision win for Borralho, but calls it a very tough fight.

Cody picks Borralho as a slight dog, praising his fight IQ, striking, and grappling. He notes Borralho's BJJ and judo black belts and thinks he can survive takedowns and take over as the fight progresses. He sees the line as closer to a pick'em and likes the value.

Daniel Levi leans with Caio Borralho as a +110 underdog, citing Borralho's karate-style striking, activity on the feet, and black belt under Demian Maia which should help his takedown defense and submission defense. He questions Omargadzhiev's undefeated record due to a possible amateur loss after turning pro, and notes that Russian fighters have been getting unfavorable decisions recently. Levi is concerned about Borralho's hands-low defense and lack of proven takedown defense against high-level wrestlers, but believes his training with Maia gives him confidence. He sees it as a 50/50 fight and prefers the dog.

Paul leans towards Omargadzhiev, citing his Dagestani grappling style and ability to take opponents down and grind them out. He thinks Omargadzhiev can neutralize Borralho and win by decision, though he admits he's not highly confident.

The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho as an underdog, citing his reach advantage and grappling defense. He notes Borralho's grappling match with Jailton Almeida, where he wasn't submitted, and believes he has power to finish. He expects a late first-round TKO.

Angelo picks Miguel Baeza, citing his more technical striking and fantastic grappling. He notes that Baeza has good fight IQ and uses kicks well to wear down opponents. He acknowledges Baeza's chin issues but believes his technical edge will be the difference. He warns that Baeza needs to avoid Fialho's power.

Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza to win by decision. He cites Baeza's speed, volume, cardio, and BJJ black belt as advantages. He notes that Fialho has power but is hittable, low-volume, and fades as the fight goes on. Brady expects Baeza to outpoint Fialho over three rounds, though he acknowledges Fialho's puncher's chance.

Cody leans towards Fialho, noting his improved striking at Sanford MMA and his power. He thinks Fialho can clip Baeza, who has shown durability issues in prolonged striking battles. However, he lacks high confidence, especially if the fight extends into later rounds.

Daniel Levi leans Miguel Baeza but is hesitant due to Baeza's confidence after two losses, including a KO. He notes Baeza's calf kicks, range, and jiu-jitsu black belt, but worries about his mental state and whether he will be hesitant early. Fialho is dangerous early with power and aggression, but Levi expects Baeza to take over as the fight progresses if he survives the initial onslaught. He is not willing to lay the -185 price.

Paul does not make a clear pick, calling it a 'dogger pass'. He notes both fighters have power and chin issues, and expects a striking battle that may not go the distance. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision as potential props.

The MMA Guru picks André Fialho by first-round KO. He criticizes Miguel Baeza's chin and notes his recent KO loss to Khaos Williams. He believes Fialho's training at Sanford MMA and full camp will lead to an early finish, as Baeza may be hesitant after his last KO.

Angelo picks Mayra Bueno Silva, expecting a straightforward decision win. He notes that Silva is a good striker with solid power and good grappling, though her wrestling is not great. He believes she will have success on the feet and on the ground if it gets there. He mentions that Silva's losses have come against legitimate contenders and that the UFC is using her to test prospects.

Big Brady picks Mayra Bueno Silva to win by finish. He notes Silva has fought much better competition, hits hard, and is dangerous on the ground with three submission wins. However, he points out that Silva rarely goes for takedowns (zero attempts in six UFC fights). He expects Silva to hurt Wu on the feet and eventually get a TKO or submission. He calls the -455 moneyline 'nuts' but still picks Silva.

Cody also picks Bueno Silva but is not confident at the price. He discusses her strengths and weaknesses, noting she should win but the line is too high. He says it's a 'no bueno' and would only use her in a parlay.

Daniel Levi picks Mayra Bueno Silva confidently, noting her power, opportunistic submissions, and toughness. He is shocked Wu Yanan is still in the UFC, citing her loss to Gina Mazany and lack of progression. He acknowledges the -470 price is steep and expects a closer fight than the line suggests, but believes Bueno Silva is the better fighter and belongs on the roster. He will not bet at that price but picks her to win.

Paul picks Bueno Silva but is hesitant due to the high price. He notes her low volume and grappling issues, but believes she should win. He calls it a 'straight up pass' and says he won't bet it.

The MMA Guru picks Mayra Bueno Silva, citing her activity and strong start against Manon Fiorot. He notes Wu Yanan's inactivity and believes Silva's grappling and striking advantage will win her the first two rounds, leading to a 29-28 decision.

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini, continuing to ride the Sabatini train. He praises Sabatini's outstanding grappling and decent striking, noting his ability to control range and set up takedowns. He acknowledges that T.J. Laramie is dangerous with power and submissions, but believes Sabatini's technical striking will avoid big shots. He thinks the odds are a bit wide but still picks Sabatini.

Big Brady picks Pat Sabatini to win by first-round submission. He highlights Sabatini's relentless wrestling and BJJ black belt, predicting he will take Laramie down and submit him early. He acknowledges Laramie has better striking but believes the grappling gap is huge. He expects Sabatini to take Laramie's back and tap him out in the first round.

Cody picks Sabatini, emphasizing his wrestling and physicality. He notes Laramie's size disadvantage and thinks Sabatini will impose his grappling. He acknowledges Laramie's potential but believes Sabatini's game plan is clear.

Daniel Levi picks Pat Sabatini, citing his ability to overcome adversity (as seen against Jamal Emmons), his submission skills, and his pace-setting wrestling. He notes Laramie is too small for featherweight (listed 5'6" but likely 5'4") and has a 66-inch reach, making him undersized. Levi expects Laramie to be game but believes Sabatini's ceiling is higher and he should win, though the fight might be closer than the line suggests.

Paul picks Sabatini, noting his size and grappling advantage. He thinks Sabatini will take Laramie down and control him, despite Laramie's striking edge. He mentions he already bet Sabatini at -350 as part of a parlay.

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini by first-round submission. He notes Sabatini's grappling expertise and win streak, and criticizes T.J. Laramie's physique and debut performance. He expects Sabatini to submit Laramie easily, possibly by guillotine or other submission.

Angelo picks Mounir Lazzez (referred to as Zaleski), citing his experience, cardio, power, and unorthodox striking. He notes that Lazzez has a capoeira background with spinning techniques and real power. He acknowledges that Ange Loosa is a very good striker with takedowns and is a live underdog, but believes Lazzez's experience gives him the edge.

Cody leans towards Loosa, citing his recent fight and durability. He thinks Loosa's striking and wrestling are serviceable, and that Lazzez may have ring rust. He sets a hypothetical line of Loosa -135.

Daniel Levi leans Mounir Lazzez, believing he is the more talented fighter with higher upside, but questions his mental state after a crushing loss to Warlley Alves where he cracked under pressure. He notes Lazzez's impressive debut against Razak Alhassan (194 strikes attempted, 4/4 takedowns) but worries if he has recovered mentally. Loosa is a physical wrestler who could grind out a decision if Lazzez is broken. Levi is encouraged that Lazzez moved to Vegas and trains with Sean Strickland and other tough guys, suggesting he is still committed.

Paul does not make a clear pick, noting the fight was just announced and he hasn't done tape on Loosa. He leans towards Loosa but is uncertain.

The MMA Guru picks Ange Loosa (referred to as Zaleski dos Santos), citing his experience and technical striking. He notes Loosa's win over Muslim Salikhov and competitive fight with Benoît Saint-Denis. He expects a 29-28 or 30-27 decision win.

Angelo picks William Knight, believing he hits too hard and has his own wrestling. He notes that both are moving up to heavyweight, but Knight will be the bigger, faster, and harder-hitting fighter. He expresses concern about Knight's cardio with added muscle and his wrestling defense, but still thinks Knight gets the win and redeems himself from the weight miss.

Big Brady picks Devin Clark to win by decision. He notes Clark has fought much better competition, has cardio, and can take the fight to the ground. He criticizes William Knight's 33% striking defense, low volume, poor takedown defense, and cardio issues. However, he is cautious because the fight is at heavyweight, which could favor Knight. He expects Clark to grind out a decision.

Cody picks Clark, emphasizing his wrestling and clinch work. He thinks Clark can grind Knight against the cage and win a decision. He notes Knight's lack of output and Clark's edge in wrestling.

Daniel Levi has no clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges Devin Clark is much more skilled with good wrestling and experience, but notes he has been finished multiple times and can break mentally. William Knight is unskilled with poor defense but has tremendous toughness, power, and explosiveness, similar to Derrick Lewis. Levi says the fight could go either way depending on which version shows up, and he has no conviction on a pick.

Paul picks Clark but is hesitant, noting the weigh-ins will be important. He thinks Clark's wrestling and pace will be key, but worries about Clark's chin and Knight's power. He expects a decision win for Clark.

The MMA Guru picks William Knight by first-round KO. He notes the fight is at heavyweight, benefiting Knight who doesn't have to cut weight, and that Devin Clark is coming off a horrific jaw injury from Krzysztof Jotko. He believes Clark will be hesitant and Knight's power will prevail.

Angelo picks Pannie Kianzad, though he is surprised she is such a heavy favorite. He notes that Lina Länsberg is a world champion Muay Thai fighter with excellent clinch work, but Kianzad is a very good boxer with good footwork and high-volume striking. He believes Kianzad can stick and move for 15 minutes to avoid the clinch and win a decision.

Big Brady picks Pannie Kianzad to win by decision. He notes Kianzad is the better striker, younger (30 vs 40), and improving her takedown defense and ground game. He criticizes Länsberg's low volume and 44% striking defense, and notes she hasn't fought in almost two years. He expects Kianzad to stuff takedowns and outpoint Länsberg on the feet.

Cody picks Kianzad, emphasizing her striking volume and Länsberg's decline. He notes Kianzad's recent performances and thinks she will outwork Länsberg. He calls it a 'passing of the torch' spot.

Daniel Levi picks Pannie Kianzad confidently, noting she beat Länsberg 10 years ago when both were in different stages of their careers. Länsberg is now nearly 40 and coming off having a baby, while Kianzad is entering her prime. Levi expects Kianzad to out-tough Länsberg with volume and win a decision.

Paul picks Kianzad, citing her volume and improvement. He notes Länsberg's age (40) and layoff, and thinks Kianzad will dominate on the feet. He mentions he already bet her as part of a parlay.

The MMA Guru picks Pannie Kianzad, citing her technical striking and youth (10 years younger). He notes Lina Länsberg lacks great wins and that Kianzad's close loss to Raquel Pennington is better than anything Länsberg has done. He expects a 29-28 or 30-27 decision.

Angelo picks Drakkar Klose, but is hesitant to bet due to Klose's two-year layoff. He believes Klose's power, wrestling, and cardio should be enough to finish Brandon Jenkins. He notes that Jenkins is a kill-or-be-killed fighter who is always looking for a finish, which makes him dangerous. He thinks the odds are too wide for Klose given the layoff.

Big Brady picks Drakkar Klose to win by decision. He notes Klose is UFC-caliber with much better competition, while Jenkins is very hittable (35% striking defense) and has poor takedown defense (25%). He expects Klose to outstrike and outwrestle Jenkins, but doesn't see a finish since Klose hasn't finished in years. He calls Jenkins' only path a 'flukish knockout.'

Cody picks Klose, citing his advantages in every department. He notes Jenkins relies on flashy techniques but was easily handled by a younger opponent. He thinks Klose's wrestling and experience will be too much.

Daniel Levi picks Drakkar Klose but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation due to the -800 price. He notes Klose has fought much better competition (Bobby Green, Lando Vannata) and is skilled at grinding out decisions. However, he is concerned about Klose's concussion issues from the Jeremy Stephens shove and whether he will be the same fighter. Jenkins is a highlight-reel finisher but tends to break when he can't get the knockout. Levi expects Klose to win but won't bet at those odds.

Paul picks Klose, noting his experience and well-rounded game. He thinks Klose has advantages in wrestling, striking, and durability. He mentions he already bet Klose at -400 as part of a parlay.

The MMA Guru picks Drakkar Klose, stating Brandon Jenkins doesn't belong in the UFC. He notes Klose's competitive fight with Beneil Dariush and wins over Bobby Green and Marc Diakiese. He expects Klose to finish Jenkins by TKO in the second round.

Angelo picks Rafa García confidently, calling it a clear pick. He notes that García has more power, better ground game, and is dangerous everywhere. He mentions that Jesse Ronson may be more technical but has chin issues, and García hits like a truck for the weight class. He is surprised García is only a slight favorite and plans to bet the moneyline at -120 before the line moves.

Big Brady slightly picks Jesse Ronson to win by close decision. He notes Ronson has better striking and cardio, while García has good wrestling but questionable cardio. He expects García to slow down as the fight goes on, allowing Ronson to take over late. He calls it a very close fight and says he won't bet on it.

Cody picks Ronson, citing his technical striking and experience. He notes Garcia's struggles at 155 and the weight jump to 170. He thinks Ronson's sharpness and durability will be key, and calls him a live underdog.

Daniel Levi has no clear pick, calling it a question of which version of Jesse Ronson shows up. If Ronson is the seasoned vet who has fought elite competition (Michel Prazeres, Kevin Lee) and is clean from his suspension, he picks Ronson. If Ronson is washed up, he picks Garcia. He notes Garcia is tough and gritty but has faced lower-level competition and was finished by Chris Gruetzemacher after gassing. Levi is uncertain and passes.

Paul leans towards Ronson after hearing Cody's analysis. He notes Ronson's technical striking and experience, and thinks Garcia may struggle moving up to 170. He plans to add Ronson to his card.

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García due to Jesse Ronson's inactivity and age (36). He notes García's activity and visible improvements, and believes Ronson has regressed during his time off. He expects García to win a 29-28 decision in a fun scrap.

Angelo sides with Martin Buday's power and the bookies, but is uncertain. He notes that Chris Barnett is athletic and dynamic, but Buday has heavy hands and technical striking. He mentions that Barnett was a step behind in his last fight until landing a spinning back kick. He considers live betting Barnett if he starts getting ahead on strikes.

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by finish inside the distance, likely in the second round. He notes Buday is a natural heavyweight with a size advantage, good takedowns, and a brown belt in BJJ. He expects Buday to push Barnett against the cage, take him down, and finish with ground and pound or a submission. He criticizes Barnett's ground game and size disadvantage.

Cody picks Buday, noting his size and clinch game. He thinks Buday can control Barnett against the cage and grind him down. However, he acknowledges Barnett's striking power and unpredictability.

Daniel Levi picks Martin Buday, citing his size advantage and ability to wear on opponents with clinch work and knees to the thigh, as seen in his Contender Series win. He notes Buday gets hit but is tough, while Barnett is deceptively athletic for his size but likely to be overwhelmed by Buday's size and pressure. Levi is rooting for Barnett but picks Buday.

Paul does not make a clear pick, calling it a 'dogger pass'. He notes the fight is low-level heavyweight with high variance. He mentions Barnett by knockout as a potential prop but is not confident.

The MMA Guru picks Martin Buday despite wanting Chris Barnett to win. He notes Buday's size and clinch pressure, and that Barnett struggles when pressured and against high pace. He expects Buday to win a 30-27 unanimous decision by clinching and grinding.

Angelo picks Trey Ogden, but is a little worried because it's Ogden's UFC debut and Jordan Leavitt's ground game is dangerous. He notes that Ogden is more well-rounded with solid takedowns and power, while Leavitt is a one-dimensional grappler with subpar striking and wrestling. He thinks Ogden's timing and blast doubles will be key.

Big Brady picks Trey Ogden to win by third-round submission. He notes Ogden is the better striker, wrestler, and has better cardio. He expects Ogden to take Leavitt down and eventually break him, getting a late finish. He acknowledges Leavitt's submission threat but notes Ogden is a BJJ black belt and that Leavitt slows down as fights go on.

Cody picks Ogden, citing his improved striking and wrestling. He thinks Ogden can neutralize Leavitt's grappling and win a decision. He notes Leavitt's limited skillset and Ogden's camp advantage.

Daniel Levi leans Trey Ogden contingent on him surviving the early scrambles. He notes Leavitt is a one-trick pony with good scrambling and submissions but fades if he doesn't get a quick finish. Ogden is more well-rounded, has finished a current UFC fighter (TJ Brown), and trains under James Krause. Levi sees it as 50/50 early but favors Ogden as the fight progresses.

Paul leans towards Ogden, noting his more complete game and better wrestling. He thinks Ogden can out-strike Leavitt and avoid submissions. He also bet under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish.

The MMA Guru picks Jordan Leavitt by submission, noting that three of Trey Ogden's four losses are by submission. He believes Ogden's grappling-first style plays into Leavitt's strengths, and expects a first-round submission, possibly an arm triangle or rear-naked choke.

Angelo picks Istela Nunes, expecting a three-round decision win. He notes that Nunes has cleaner striking with speed and power, while Sam Hughes is hittable and has not taken anyone down in the UFC. He references Nunes's last fight where she won striking exchanges but lost due to takedowns, but believes Hughes cannot take her down.

Big Brady picks Istela Nunes to win by decision. He notes Nunes has good striking and improved takedown defense, while Hughes is 0-3 in the UFC with poor striking defense (49%) and no takedowns landed. He expects the fight to stay standing, where Nunes will outclass Hughes. He calls it a winnable fight for Nunes but says he doesn't overly want anything to do with it.

Cody picks Nunes, noting her striking advantage and Hughes' lack of finishing ability. He thinks Nunes can win on the feet and avoid takedowns. He calls it a good spot for Nunes.

Daniel Levi leans Istela Nunes based on aggression and forward pressure, noting Hughes is hesitant and seems to lack confidence. He acknowledges Nunes's win over Karnilosi may be overrated because Karnilosi blocks punches with her face, but believes Nunes's willingness to engage will sway judges. He is not willing to lay -225 but picks Nunes to win.

Paul picks Nunes, citing her striking and physicality. He notes Hughes' poor performances and thinks Nunes can piece her up. He acknowledges cardio concerns but believes Nunes can win the first two rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Istela Nunes, citing her strong striking performance against Ariane Carnelossi, who he notes was on steroids. He believes Nunes has a reach advantage and will outclass Sam Hughes on the feet, winning a 30-27 unanimous decision.

Angelo picks Alateng Heili, but thinks the odds are a bit wide. He notes that Heili is a technical striker who can struggle with brawlers like Croom. He believes Heili can get the fight to the ground if needed, but must be wary of Croom's submissions. He considers Croom a far better fighter than his recent record shows.

Big Brady picks Kevin Croom for the upset by decision. He notes Croom has a massive size advantage (6 inches taller, 6.5 inch reach) and will throw more volume than Alateng Heili, who has low output (max 47 significant strikes in a UFC fight). He expects Croom to win minutes on the feet and avoid Heili's power. He acknowledges Croom's takedown accuracy is poor but thinks Heili's wrestling plays into Croom's ground game.

Cody picks Heili, emphasizing his wrestling and top pressure. He notes Croom's size but thinks Heili can take him down and win from guard. He believes Heili's camp at Fight Ready will help him execute the right game plan.

Daniel Levi leans Alateng Heili, noting this is his proper weight class and he is likely fight-ready with good conditioning. He respects Croom's size and finishing ability but worries about Croom cutting to 135 and fading late, as he has a history of losing decisions. Levi expects Heili to win a decision.

Paul picks Heili, citing his wrestling advantage and durability. He thinks Heili can take Croom down and control him. He notes Heili's poor decision-making in the past but believes he will wrestle here.

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Croom as an underdog, believing the odds are incorrect. He notes Croom's 7-inch reach advantage and awkward striking style, and doubts Heili's chin and technical ability. He expects Croom to win a 29-28 unanimous decision, possibly losing the third round.