vs
-200 +185
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev Next Fight
Age 35
Height 6' 3"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Armen Petrosyan
5.84 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
3.31 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.17 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
41.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - A.J. Dobson
4.29 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
5.31 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
1.67 TD Avg
75.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Armen Petrosyan
Moneyline
BetMGM -200
KO/TKO
BetRivers +110
Submission
FanDuel +3400
Decision
BetRivers +380
A.J. Dobson
Moneyline
DraftKings +185
KO/TKO
FanDuel +330
Submission
BetRivers +1700
Decision
FanDuel +750
Armen Petrosyan - Fight History
LOSS vs Brunno Ferreira
Submission R2 4:27 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brunno Ferreira 0 27 of 56 48% 31 of 63 2 of 7 28% 1 0 1:12
Armen Petrosyan 0 46 of 83 55% 47 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brunno Ferreira 0 13 of 25 52% 14 of 26 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:18
Armen Petrosyan 0 22 of 39 56% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brunno Ferreira 0 14 of 31 45% 17 of 37 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:54
Armen Petrosyan 0 24 of 44 54% 24 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brunno Ferreira 27 of 56 48% 14 of 40 9 of 10 4 of 6 25 of 53 2 of 3 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 46 of 83 55% 19 of 54 7 of 7 20 of 22 46 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brunno Ferreira 13 of 25 52% 6 of 15 4 of 5 3 of 5 11 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 22 of 39 56% 6 of 22 4 of 4 12 of 13 22 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brunno Ferreira 14 of 31 45% 8 of 25 5 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 24 of 44 54% 13 of 32 3 of 3 8 of 9 24 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
KO (spinning backfists) R2 4:52 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sharabutdin Magomedov 1 65 of 106 61% 67 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Armen Petrosyan 0 77 of 140 55% 77 of 141 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sharabutdin Magomedov 0 33 of 49 67% 35 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Armen Petrosyan 0 46 of 81 56% 46 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Sharabutdin Magomedov 1 32 of 57 56% 32 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Armen Petrosyan 0 31 of 59 52% 31 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sharabutdin Magomedov 65 of 106 61% 24 of 53 29 of 34 12 of 19 63 of 104 2 of 2 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 77 of 140 55% 22 of 66 10 of 14 45 of 60 75 of 138 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sharabutdin Magomedov 33 of 49 67% 12 of 24 13 of 14 8 of 11 31 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 46 of 81 56% 14 of 35 5 of 7 27 of 39 44 of 79 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Sharabutdin Magomedov 32 of 57 56% 12 of 29 16 of 20 4 of 8 32 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 31 of 59 52% 8 of 31 5 of 7 18 of 21 31 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Angelo picks Sharabutdin Magomedov despite being disappointed in his lack of finishes. He believes Shara is the better striker and counter-striker, and Armen's forward pressure will play into Shara's hands. However, he also sees value in betting on Armen Petrosyan at plus money via a spread bet, as Shara has not been finishing fights and Armen could win rounds.

Sneaky good bet on Armen Petrosyan +3.5 if available; over 2.5 rounds if plus money.
"I'm going to pick Shara because I think arman's forward pressure will play in to's very good counter striking but I think a sneaky good bet... plus three and a half on Arman petosan might be a very good bet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Armen Petrosyan

Big Brady picks the underdog Petrosyan, calling this the closest fight on the card. He thinks Petrosyan can hang on the feet and may mix in takedowns, which could be a key factor. He notes that Petrosyan has been taken down a lot but might have improved his wrestling, similar to Roman Kopylov. He believes at worst it's a 50/50 fight and doesn't understand the odds.

"I'm going with with the dog here I just don't understand these odds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Armen Petrosyan

Cody picks Armen Petrosyan as a slight underdog, citing Magomedov's lack of grappling and takedown defense. He notes that Petrosyan has faced strong grapplers and survived, and that he has the striking volume and power to outwork Magomedov. Cody also mentions that Petrosyan may mix in takedowns of his own. However, he is not highly confident due to potential hometown cooking for Magomedov.

"I'm actually going to go with Arman petan as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Connor picks Magomedov, noting his speed and volume, though he acknowledges his takedown defense is still a work in progress. He believes Petrosyan lacks the power to hurt Magomedov and that Magomedov's boxing improvements will be enough to win a striking battle. Connor is not fully confident but sees Magomedov as the likely winner.

Magomedov opened at -189, currently -159; Petrosyan opened at +167, currently +142
"So unfortunately I think I have to picture our bullet Magomedov."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Daniel Vreeland picks Sharabutdin Magomedov to win, citing his movement and elusiveness as key factors against the more flat-footed Petrosyan. He acknowledges Petrosyan's striking credentials but believes Magomedov's lateral movement and ability to stay on the move will frustrate Petrosyan. Vreeland also mentions the potential for favorable judging in Abu Dhabi for a fighter with a name ending in 'ov'.

"I'm going sha magam medov"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a clear pick for this fight. He sees value on Petrosyan but is not confident enough to bet. He notes that Magomedov has a unique kicking style that could trouble Petrosyan, but Petrosyan has grappling upside and may shoot takedowns. He plans to study more tape before deciding.

"it's a tough one for me guys... I'm going to say that there is some value on patan but I do want to look into the fight a little bit more"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Armen Petrosyan

Petrosyan is the technically superior striker with a cleaner, straighter style that will counter Magomedov's orthodox approach. He may mix in some grappling but his fundamental striking and clinch work should lead to a decision win.

"look for petosan winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Armen Petrosyan

Paul picks Petrosyan, noting that Magomedov has no wrestling and that Petrosyan has good volume and kicks. He believes Petrosyan's experience against grapplers will help him, and that he can win the striking exchanges. Paul is not confident due to potential judging bias but leans Petrosyan.

"I'll take Armen but I don't like it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

The Guru picks Sharabutdin Magomedov by decision, believing Petrosyan's rangey, point-fighting style plays into Magomedov's strengths. He notes that Petrosyan doesn't mix in grappling and will engage in a striking match where Magomedov's volume and durability should win rounds. He criticizes Magomedov's finishing ability but thinks he will outwork Petrosyan. The Guru also mentions Petrosyan's short reach as a disadvantage.

"I'm going to go with Sharabutdin Magomedov here getting it done by a decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Zane also picks Magomedov, citing his speed and volume. He notes that Petrosian is not a powerful striker and that Magomedov's improved takedown defense, while still imperfect, should be enough to avoid being controlled. Zane thinks Magomedov's pace will overwhelm Petrosian.

Magomedov opened at -189, currently -159; Petrosian opened at +167, currently +142
"I think Magomedov is more powerful. I think Petrosian, he's much faster and Petrosian himself is not, it's not like he's a great defensive fighter."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Zane picked Magomedov, noting his elite speed and dedication to volume. He pointed out that Petrosyan is a low-power, slightly less volume kickboxer with okay but not good wrestling, which was a good matchup for Magomedov. Zane highlighted that Magomedov is getting better at MMA, improving his takedown defense, and that Petrosyan started well but got discouraged by the absurd speed and second-guessed himself.

"chara bullet is really fast and really dedicated to volume he is elite in his speed"
LOSS vs Rodolfo Vieira
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 4:48 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodolfo Vieira 0 6 of 11 54% 14 of 21 3 of 3 100% 1 0 2:46
Armen Petrosyan 0 9 of 20 45% 14 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodolfo Vieira 0 6 of 11 54% 14 of 21 3 of 3 100% 1 0 2:46
Armen Petrosyan 0 9 of 20 45% 14 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodolfo Vieira 6 of 11 54% 4 of 6 0 of 2 2 of 3 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 9 of 20 45% 1 of 10 1 of 3 7 of 7 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodolfo Vieira 6 of 11 54% 4 of 6 0 of 2 2 of 3 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 9 of 20 45% 1 of 10 1 of 3 7 of 7 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Armen Petrosyan vs. Rodolfo Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-120), Petrosyan (+100)

Round 1
Rescheduled from November due to a fight-night scratch, this quintessential striker vs. grappler contest opens the main card, as ADCC and mundials all-star Vieira (9-2, 4-2 UFC) would like nothing more than to become the first man to tap out kickboxer Petrosyan (9-2, 3-1 UFC). No matter how it plays out, these two middleweights are primed to put on a show. Referee Mark Smith is on call to keep things on the up-and-up, and there is no bad blood between them as they even hugged it out before announcer Joe Martinez introduced them. They clap both hands together, and Petrosyan takes to the center of the cage and starts looking for a jab. It is Vieira who lands the jab first, although Petrosyan is quick to find it on his own. Petrosyan jams a low kick on the calf, and he scores a front kick and another low kick while Vieira is still watching him. They trade leg kicks, and Vieira hand-fights to prevent Petrosyan from landing a right hand. Petrosyan accepts this by turning his hips towards low kicks, and he uses a front kick like a jab. Vieira doubles up on a jab, leading Petrosyan to kicking him in the side. Vieira scoops up an easy single, and when Petrosyan scrambles, the Brazilian takes his back briefly. Petrosyan manages to get back up, only for “The Black Belt Hunter” to take him down again with a single. Vieira gets one hook around the side and allows Petrosyan to surrender position so he can fish for a choke. Petrosyan muscles his way back upright, and Vieira decides instead to lift “Superman” in the air and throw him down to the mat like a middleweight Matt Hughes. This time, Petrosyan is not so able to climb up the wall behind him, and Vieira moves to half guard while lowering his weight down for an arm-triangle choke. Vieira easily steps over to mount, and Petrosyan turns over to give up his back. Vieira lets this happen so he can get a rear-naked choke, and Petrosyan turns around to lay down flat on his back.
The Brazilian presses down with all his might and he locks down an arm-triangle choke, and it is academic at this point. With seconds to spare in the round, Petrosyan taps out twice, and he nearly goes out as Vieira releases the grip. Smith pulls them apart, and Petrosyan is incensed, perhaps not realizing that he surrendered.
Petrosyan tries to claim he did not submit to the move, but no one listens as the video plays on the big screen showing him tapping. Vieira still retains a 100% finish rate with his arm-triangle choke, and he claims the UFC record with the most submissions of this type in company history (four).

The Official Result
Rodolfo Vieira def. Armen Petrosyan R1 4:48 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Angelo highlights Rodolfo Vieira's world-class BJJ and explosiveness, and notes his improved striking and toughness shown in the Cody Brundage fight. Armen Petrosyan is a beast on the feet with a kickboxing background but has questionable takedown defense. Angelo believes the gap on the ground is wider than on the feet, and that Vieira will get takedowns and win. He is confident and looks for prop bets.

"Rolph Vier is going to be the pick pretty confident in him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Big Brady hesitantly picks Rodolfo Vieira to win by first-round submission. He notes that Vieira is a legit BJJ black belt with incredible grappling, while Petrosyan has terrible takedown defense (36%) and gives up his back. However, Vieira has poor cardio and if Petrosyan survives the first round, he likely knocks Vieira out. He calls it a pick 'em fight.

first round submission
"I'm going to stick with Roda Vieira I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Cody picks Vieira, acknowledging Petrosyan is better on the feet. He thinks if Vieira can get the fight to the mat early, his BJJ is a threat. Cody notes Vieira's cardio issues but believes he can survive 15 minutes. He sees this as a close fight where Vieira's submission threat gives him the edge.

"Rulo for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Armen Petrosyan

Petrosyan has shown improved takedown defense and submission defense, as seen against Gregory Rodrigues. He should be able to keep the fight standing and use his kickboxing to wear on Vieira, potentially finding a TKO in the second round. Vieira has cardio issues and is dangerous early, but Petrosyan's patience and technical discipline should allow him to survive and take over late.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to call it petan TKO round two uh fight doesn't go to decision would obviously be my favorite spot in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Armen Petrosyan

Paul picks Petrosyan, citing his superior striking, cardio, and durability. He criticizes Vieira's takedown accuracy and cardio, noting he gassed against Anthony Hernandez. Petrosyan has shown good takedown defense and volume. Paul believes if Petrosyan survives the first round, he will take over and win by decision or late TKO.

"Arman all day"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Armen Petrosyan

The MMA Guru picks Armen Petrosyan because he believes Petrosyan has good takedown defense and a tucked-up style with short arms that makes him safer in close range. He thinks Petrosyan will chew up Vieira's legs and stuff takedowns early. He likes Petrosyan's work on the inside and expects him to get the win.

"I'm going to go with Arman petosan... I think he's got good takedown defense and uh I think he's going to chew up the legs of Rulo Vie the CF and then manag to stuff a lot of those takedowns …"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Armen Petrosyan 0 89 of 156 57% 111 of 179 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:21
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 59 of 122 48% 73 of 136 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Armen Petrosyan 0 37 of 66 56% 37 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 27 of 51 52% 27 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Armen Petrosyan 0 36 of 62 58% 46 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 20 of 43 46% 25 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:41
3 Armen Petrosyan 0 16 of 28 57% 28 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:17
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 12 of 28 42% 21 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Armen Petrosyan 89 of 156 57% 37 of 90 15 of 22 37 of 44 77 of 139 10 of 14 2 of 3
Christian Leroy Duncan 59 of 122 48% 23 of 72 8 of 16 28 of 34 58 of 121 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Armen Petrosyan 37 of 66 56% 10 of 30 6 of 10 21 of 26 36 of 64 1 of 2 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 27 of 51 52% 10 of 29 6 of 8 11 of 14 27 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Armen Petrosyan 36 of 62 58% 19 of 42 8 of 10 9 of 10 26 of 50 9 of 10 1 of 2
Christian Leroy Duncan 20 of 43 46% 6 of 24 2 of 6 12 of 13 20 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Armen Petrosyan 16 of 28 57% 8 of 18 1 of 2 7 of 8 15 of 25 0 of 2 1 of 1
Christian Leroy Duncan 12 of 28 42% 7 of 19 0 of 2 5 of 7 11 of 27 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Angelo picks Christian Leroy Duncan, noting his pressure and creativity. He acknowledges that Armen Petrosyan is a skilled striker with a solid chin, and if Duncan chases an early knockout and gasses, Petrosyan could take over. However, Duncan hasn't shown a gas tank issue yet. Angelo calls Duncan an affordable minus 150.

"Christian is going to be the pick and he is honestly an affordable minus 150 right now"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Big Brady picks Christian Leroy Duncan to win by second-round knockout. He acknowledges that Petrosyan is likely to win the minutes with higher volume, but Duncan has fight-ending power with spinning attacks and flying knees. Brady notes Petrosyan has poor takedown defense and has been knocked out before. He also mentions Duncan has shown some takedown ability and solid ground game, which could be an alternative path. He thinks the line may be a bit wide but leans to Duncan's power.

"I think it's going to be Christian Leroy Duncan who wins the moments and and finds a knockout quite quite frankly."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Armen Petrosyan

Cody takes the underdog Petrosyan, citing his elite striking volume, cardio, and leg kicks. He notes that Petrosyan's takedown defense is poor but his ability to scramble back up and maintain pace is excellent. He believes Duncan, while athletic and rangy, may not have the cardio to keep up with Petrosyan's pressure over three rounds. Cody thinks Petrosyan's leg kicks will slow Duncan's movement, and if Petrosyan can survive the first round, he will take over in the second and third. He also mentions a prop for Petrosyan by split decision at +1250.

Petrosyan by split decision at +1250 (sprinkle)
"I'll go with I've got the arm and Armin special this week"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Connor picks Duncan for similar reasons, citing his power and aggression. He notes that Petrosian is a 'Vettori type' who is difficult to look good against, but Duncan's power and ability to land crushing shots should carry him. Connor is not fully confident but leans to the powerful fighter.

"I got to pick the powerful guy."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Daniel Levi picks Christian Leroy Duncan, citing his athleticism, speed, and reach advantage. He notes Duncan's impressive movement in his debut and believes he can land takedowns on Petrosyan, whose takedown defense is poor. He got Duncan at -125 and thinks the line is good value. He also mentions the age disparity and Duncan entering his prime.

bet at -125, potential finish
"I got him at -125 I thought that was an awesome line for him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Petrosyan is the technically better kickboxer but Duncan's speed, explosiveness, and power will be the difference maker. Petrosyan has been knocked out by less technical strikers before. Duncan throws flying knees and spinning techniques and is likely to land a knockout blow in the first or second round.

Duncan wins by KO in round 1 or 2
"I fully expect him to go out there and lie in that knockout blow on a Petrosian... give me Christian Leroy Duncan probably first or second knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Armen Petrosyan

Paul sides with Cody, noting that Petrosyan's sample size of high-volume striking in three-round fights is impressive, and until he sees more from Duncan, he leans to the underdog. He mentions that Petrosyan by decision is +250 and by split decision is +1250, which could be worth a sprinkle. He thinks the fight could be close and go to the judges.

Petrosyan by decision at +250; Petrosyan by split decision at +1250 (sprinkle)
"slight lean to the underdog here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

The MMA Guru picks Christian Leroy Duncan over Armen Petrosyan, emphasizing the eight-inch reach advantage. He notes Petrosyan is a good striker but lacks dynamism, while Duncan throws wheel kicks, front kicks, and flying knees. He expects Duncan to catch Petrosyan pulling out of an exchange and win by TKO.

"I am going to be going with Christian Leroy Duncan over arm and Petrosian... I think the reach Advantage is just everything in this matchup"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Zane picks Duncan because he trusts Duncan's power and comfort in the pocket. He notes that Petrosian is consistent but lacks power, and that Duncan is a more mindful pocket puncher with good vision in exchanges. Zane believes Duncan's dynamic fight-changing power will be too much for Petrosian, who has shown vulnerability to counters.

"I'll take Duncan."
WIN vs A.J. Dobson
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
LOSS vs Caio Borralho
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Caio Borralho 0 12 of 25 48% 49 of 83 4 of 5 80% 0 0 10:09
Armen Petrosyan 0 31 of 61 50% 72 of 132 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Caio Borralho 0 4 of 5 80% 14 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:24
Armen Petrosyan 0 1 of 2 50% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Caio Borralho 0 2 of 8 25% 8 of 23 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:47
Armen Petrosyan 0 12 of 29 41% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:26
3 Caio Borralho 0 6 of 12 50% 27 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:58
Armen Petrosyan 0 18 of 30 60% 41 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Caio Borralho 12 of 25 48% 4 of 15 6 of 8 2 of 2 11 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 31 of 61 50% 2 of 19 3 of 9 26 of 33 16 of 40 0 of 0 15 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Caio Borralho 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Caio Borralho 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 12 of 29 41% 1 of 12 1 of 3 10 of 14 9 of 23 0 of 0 3 of 6
3 Caio Borralho 6 of 12 50% 1 of 6 4 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 18 of 30 60% 1 of 7 2 of 5 15 of 18 6 of 15 0 of 0 12 of 15
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Angelo picks Caio Borralho but with low confidence, noting the fight is closer than the 2-1 odds suggest. He highlights Borralho's slick grappling and takedowns, while Petrosyan is a high-volume kickboxer with questionable takedown defense. He acknowledges Petrosyan can win if he makes Borralho pay on grappling entries, as seen in his win over Gregory Rodrigues. He may switch his pick by fight week.

"Kyo is the pick here but I really don't see him being as big of a favorite as the books do... I may end up switching this pick by the end of the week."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Big Brady confidently picks Caio Borralho, highlighting his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Petrosyan's takedown defense is non-existent and that he gives up his back frequently. Brady believes Borralho will take the fight to the mat, take Petrosyan's back, and finish via ground-and-pound or submission. He predicts a first-round finish, though he acknowledges Petrosyan has power and could win if the fight stays standing.

first round finish
"kyle first round finish let's go"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Cody likes Borralho's well-rounded skills and high fight IQ, but acknowledges Petrosyan's toughness and cardio. He thinks Borralho can bait Petrosyan in and get takedowns, where his grappling is superior. However, he's not highly confident because Petrosyan is a live underdog with a solid skill set.

Mentions Borralho over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.
"i'm gonna have to go with him to get the job done but not one that i would have a whole lot of confidence in not because i don't love chao i really do but because he's taking on somebody …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)
Armen Petrosyan

The host bets 1 unit on Armen Petrosyan at +196. He believes Petrosyan is a solid prospect who can deal with Borralho's game. He thinks the line has moved too far in Borralho's favor due to recency bias, and that Petrosyan's defensive grappling is excellent, allowing him to get back to his feet and work on the feet. He sees a potential knockout for Petrosyan. He notes that Petrosyan's takedown defense is not great but his defensive grappling is amazing.

Bet 1 unit at +196. Thinks Petrosyan could knock him out.
"I got one unit on Armin patrizia not plus 196. I feel pretty damn good about him cast him last time around that's not the only reason I'm betting him but I do think he's uh a solid Prospect here …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Paul agrees with Cody that Borralho is the pick, but he's not supremely confident. He notes that Petrosyan has been taken down multiple times in recent fights and that Borralho's path to victory is through takedowns and grappling. He mentions the over 1.5 takedowns prop on PrizePicks.

Mentions Borralho over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.
"i'm not supremely confident in kyo getting over uh you know two or more takedowns but i thought the number was a little bit low so that's how i've got my investment in this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

The Guru picks Caio Borralho (referred to as Carballo/Kaubour), praising his grappling and size advantage. He notes Borralho out-grappled Gadzhi Omargadzhiev easily and believes he can take down Petrosyan. He predicts a decision win, with Borralho using his reach and transitions to control the fight.

decision win
"I'm going to be going with Carballo here."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Armen Petrosyan 0 127 of 231 54% 128 of 232 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 0 61 of 133 45% 61 of 133 2 of 3 66% 2 0 1:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Armen Petrosyan 0 41 of 72 56% 41 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 0 18 of 40 45% 18 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Armen Petrosyan 0 35 of 75 46% 36 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 0 24 of 51 47% 24 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
3 Armen Petrosyan 0 51 of 84 60% 51 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 0 19 of 42 45% 19 of 42 1 of 2 50% 2 0 1:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Armen Petrosyan 127 of 231 54% 50 of 139 38 of 47 39 of 45 127 of 231 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 61 of 133 45% 45 of 114 9 of 12 7 of 7 61 of 133 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Armen Petrosyan 41 of 72 56% 19 of 47 6 of 7 16 of 18 41 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 18 of 40 45% 9 of 30 3 of 4 6 of 6 18 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Armen Petrosyan 35 of 75 46% 14 of 49 11 of 14 10 of 12 35 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 24 of 51 47% 21 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0 24 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Armen Petrosyan 51 of 84 60% 17 of 43 21 of 26 13 of 15 51 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 19 of 42 45% 15 of 36 3 of 5 1 of 1 19 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by first-round submission. He notes Petrosyan's takedown defense is a huge liability and that every Petrosyan fight follows a pattern where he gets taken down early, his opponent gasses, and then he finishes. Brady believes Rodrigues has elite BJJ and can submit Petrosyan if he gets him down. However, he is hesitant because Rodrigues has been knocked out before and his gas tank is questionable if the fight goes past the first round.

Rodrigues by first-round submission
"I'll pick rodriguez i don't love it but i'm going to take rodriguez to get the fight down to the mat i think he can get takedowns whenever he wants and i think his ground game is on an elite …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Armen Petrosyan

Cody picks Petrosyan as an underdog, citing his striking power, leg kicks, and improved takedown defense from training in Dagestan. He notes Rodrigues' questionable chin and cardio, and believes Petrosyan can knock him out if he avoids grappling. Cody calls it a 'dog or pass' fight.

"i'm gonna take the underdog here arm and protrusion and plus 140"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel Levi picks Gregory Rodrigues to win via submission. He highlights Rodrigues' size, physicality, and black belt, and notes Petrosyan has been knocked out before. Levi warns that if Rodrigues gets cocky and stands with Petrosyan, he could get knocked out, but expects Rodrigues to take him down and submit him. He mentions Petrosyan's ability to survive bad positions and come back, but thinks Rodrigues' experience is the difference.

"i'm gonna go with rodriguez via via submission but i could see a rodriguez knockout too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Armen Petrosyan

The host likes Petrosyan as an underdog, believing his striking is superior and that he will defend takedowns well. He expects Rodrigues to struggle to get the fight to the ground and gas out, allowing Petrosyan to find a knockout in the second or third round. He compares the matchup to Jared Cannonier vs Derek Brunson and thinks Petrosyan deserves to be the slight favorite.

"i like petrossian at these underdog odds and i do think he gets the knockout i think he even deserves to be the slight favorite here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Paul picks Rodrigues by submission, noting his size, strength, and BJJ black belt. He believes Rodrigues should take Petrosyan down and submit him, though he acknowledges Rodrigues' chin is a concern. Paul placed a small bet on Rodrigues by submission at +400.

Rodrigues by submission +400
"i threw a little sprinkle because i was worried that the number's gonna get away from me rodriguez by submission plus 400"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Armen Petrosyan

The MMA Guru picks Armen Petrosyan to win by KO in the second round. He acknowledges Gregory Rodrigues' power and recent improvements in grappling but notes that Rodrigues has shown a questionable chin and gassing issues, as seen in his fight with Park and Yong. The Guru believes Petrosyan's diverse striking (head kicks, body shots) and ability to stay calm in bad positions will be key. He expects a high-paced first round with grappling from Rodrigues, followed by Petrosyan landing a KO blow in the second as Rodrigues slows down.

second round KO
"petrosian's going to make a comeback and land like a ko blow in the second round"
A.J. Dobson - Fight History
KO (punches) R1 4:33 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edmen Shahbazyan 1 27 of 43 62% 31 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:49
A.J. Dobson 0 15 of 46 32% 20 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edmen Shahbazyan 1 27 of 43 62% 31 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:49
A.J. Dobson 0 15 of 46 32% 20 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edmen Shahbazyan 27 of 43 62% 19 of 34 2 of 3 6 of 6 16 of 24 1 of 3 10 of 16
A.J. Dobson 15 of 46 32% 7 of 36 2 of 2 6 of 8 12 of 43 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edmen Shahbazyan 27 of 43 62% 19 of 34 2 of 3 6 of 6 16 of 24 1 of 3 10 of 16
A.J. Dobson 15 of 46 32% 7 of 36 2 of 2 6 of 8 12 of 43 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
A.J. Dobson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Shahbazyan (-198), Dobson (+164)

Round 1
In the “featured fight of the night” slot, two relatively young middleweights are both at a crossroads. After starting out his UFC tenure red hot and surging into the rankings, Shahbazyan (12-4, 5-4 UFC) has hit a wall and won just once in five outings. Dobson (7-2, 1 NC; 1-2 UFC) has not struggled quite as much, and a win could right his ship in the Octagon to .500. Both men will try to establish themselves while referee Mark Smith watches on, and they lead off with hands being clapped together. Shahbazyan lands first with a low kick, and Dobson springs into action with a three-punch combo. Shahbazyan tries another lazy kick, and Dobson once more meets him with three in a row. Dobson is a coiled spring ready to strike, and Shahbazyan is more cautious and landing single strikes. Dobson shrugs off a calf kick and puts a one-two on the chin, and he takes two left hands on the temple to back him off for a moment. Dobson chips at the lead leg twice until they crash together throwing hands, and he tags “The Golden Boy” with a right hand. Shahbazyan is stunned and shoots for a takedown, and Dobson stands him up with a guillotine choke try. Dobson looks to make him pay with short shots, and Shahbazyan gloms onto him and hits a trip takedown. Dobson scrambles madly to get out of bad position, and he manages to flip him over and get into the guard of his foe. Dobson connects with left hands, and Shahbazyan answers with elbows off his back. Dobson clubs his opponent with right hands until Shahbazyan wraps him up and looks for an armbar. Dobson shrugs it off and absorbs more elbows to the side of the head as Shahbazyan squirms his way to the fence. Shahbazyan stands back up with the wall behind him, and he lands a knee on the inside and turns Dobson around in the clinch. Shahbazyan tries to wrangle Dobson down to the mat, and Dobson nearly falls on top of him until Shahbazyan muscles his way back up. Dobson pushes off out of the clinch and catches Shahbazyan with a left hand, and he beats Shahbazyan to the punch with a pair of strikes. Dobson lunges out with a left, and he chains a few punches together and gets caught with a vicious left hand.
Dobson crumbles to the mat, and Shahbazyan jackhammers him with punches and ferocious elbows. Dobson teeters on the edge of consciousness as Shahbazyan delivers punishment, and the strikes put him out as his head bounces off the mat.
Shahbazyan continues punching until Smith recognizes that Dobson is unconscious and he calls a halt to the fight. What a dramatic round for Shahbazyan, who outlasts a rough few minutes to knock Dobson unconscious. This marks the first time that Dobson has been finished as a professional, while clocking in as Shahbazyan’s first stoppage in the first round since 2019.

The Official Result
Edmen Shahbazyan def. A.J. Dobson R1 4:33 via KO (Elbows and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Angelo picks A.J. Dobson as an underdog, surprised by the plus 160 odds. He believes Dobson has plenty of power, wrestling, and chin to win. He plans to wait for prop bets, specifically a plus 3.5 round bet, to protect against a decision loss where Dobson wins at least one round.

plus 3.5 round bet if available
"I like AJ to win he has plenty of power plenty of wrestling plenty of chin to survive AJ's going to be the pick and even though I love these dog odds plus 160 I'll probably wait for prop bets …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Big Brady picks Edmen Shahbazyan, believing he is the better striker and more active. He notes Shahbazyan's takedown defense is not terrible and that Dobson is low volume. He acknowledges Shahbazyan's cardio issues but expects him to win the first two rounds and hold on for a 29-28 decision.

"I'll take him to hold on I'm going to take shabaz in here to to win these first two rounds and then kind of grease out the third round and and win this fight by decision 29-28"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Cody picks Shahbazyan, believing he will outclass Dobson on the feet and land a knockout. He notes Shahbazyan's power and finishing ability, but also acknowledges his cardio issues. Cody bets the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish.

under 2.5 rounds
"I think Edmond shabazian eventually just kind of outclasses him on the feet lands an absolute nuke."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Edmen Shahbazyan because he believes A.J. Dobson won't push the pace enough to expose Shahbazyan's cardio issues. He acknowledges Shahbazyan has broken in extended fights before but thinks Dobson's low output favors Shahbazyan. He is not confident enough to bet the favorite.

"I'm going to lean towards Edmund because I think that Dobson's not going to push the pace necessary to get Edmond to that state of wanting to look for the door"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Shahbazyan has a striking and speed advantage, and his submission game is solid. However, his cardio is a major concern; he tends to slow down. Dobson is a low-output striker with mediocre wrestling, but he has a better gas tank. Shahbazyan should land easily and could finish early, possibly by submission. A small sprinkle on Dobson in round three is mentioned, but the pick is Shahbazyan inside the distance.

Shahbazyan by submission at +900; small sprinkle on Dobson in round 3
"I'm going to pick shabazi here I think he wins inside the distance maybe a small sprinkle on Dobson in round three is not a bad idea but I think shabazi will do a better job all around to get …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Paul leans toward the over 2.5 rounds, citing Shahbazyan's cardio issues and Dobson's durability. He thinks Dobson will try to wrestle and slow the fight down, which could lead to a decision. Paul picks Shahbazyan but expects a tough fight, possibly going to decision.

over 2.5 rounds
"I would go shasan by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

The MMA Guru picks Edmen Shahbazyan over A.J. Dobson, citing Shahbazyan's speed and accuracy. He thinks Shahbazyan will land a right hand and finish with uppercuts and knees against the cage. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Dobson's lack of speed and inability to get takedowns.

first round TKO
"I'm going with Edmund shabazian... first round TKO for Edmund shabazian"
WIN vs Tafon Nchukwi
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
A.J. Dobson 0 67 of 134 50% 98 of 176 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:33
Tafon Nchukwi 0 53 of 99 53% 59 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 A.J. Dobson 0 34 of 65 52% 36 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
Tafon Nchukwi 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 A.J. Dobson 0 28 of 51 54% 29 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Tafon Nchukwi 0 26 of 48 54% 27 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 A.J. Dobson 0 5 of 18 27% 33 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:57
Tafon Nchukwi 0 3 of 6 50% 8 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
A.J. Dobson 67 of 134 50% 19 of 75 12 of 18 36 of 41 61 of 119 2 of 5 4 of 10
Tafon Nchukwi 53 of 99 53% 11 of 47 12 of 15 30 of 37 49 of 92 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 A.J. Dobson 34 of 65 52% 6 of 31 10 of 15 18 of 19 31 of 59 0 of 0 3 of 6
Tafon Nchukwi 24 of 45 53% 4 of 20 7 of 10 13 of 15 24 of 44 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 A.J. Dobson 28 of 51 54% 12 of 31 2 of 3 14 of 17 26 of 47 2 of 4 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 26 of 48 54% 6 of 25 5 of 5 15 of 18 22 of 42 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 A.J. Dobson 5 of 18 27% 1 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 13 0 of 1 1 of 4
Tafon Nchukwi 3 of 6 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Angelo picks Dobson as an underdog but with low confidence. He notes Dobson has better wrestling and a sturdier chin, but worries he may be afraid to strike with Nchukwi. He hasn't bet yet.

"I like AJ in this Underdog spot"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi to win by decision, but is not confident due to chin concerns. He praises Nchukwi's volume, cardio, and wrestling, but notes he has been knocked out in his last two losses. He thinks Nchukwi should be the better striker over 15 minutes and can win minutes. He worries about Dobson's power but believes Nchukwi's volume will carry him.

"give me give me tafon by decision the chin seriously worries me a little bit though"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Cody picks Dobson, heavily fading Nchukwi. He questions Nchukwi's age (suspects he's older than listed), criticizes his slow speed, low volume, and lack of power. He notes Dobson is younger, faster, and still improving with a good camp (Matt Brown, Mark Coleman). He thinks Dobson's speed and wrestling will be key, and that Nchukwi may miss weight or look bad at weigh-ins.

Mentioned weigh-ins are key; will bet Dobson more if Nchukwi looks bad
"plus money on Dobson whatever I would take it I think he's got the speed of edge work some from the outside maybe mixes in a couple takedowns it's his coming out party"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

James slightly favors Dobson, citing his speed and power. He thinks Dobson is faster and hits harder, which could be the difference. However, he calls the fight extremely close and says he would flip the lines to make Dobson -150 and Nchukwi +120. He is unsure if he will bet it due to the closeness.

"I'd play Dobson here because I don't think anyone should be the underdog... I probably favor Dobson very slightly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Nchukwi is the better technical striker and should outwork Dobson over 15 minutes. Dobson lacks technical aspects in both wrestling and striking and relies on physical capabilities. Nchukwi is on a losing streak but had good moments in those fights. As long as he stays conscious, he should win by decision.

Nchukwi by decision
"give me in chukwi though and I think as long as he stays conscious he'll do a good enough job of working AJ Dobson and eventually winning this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Paul also picks Dobson, agreeing with Cody's fade of Nchukwi. He notes Nchukwi's move to 185 hasn't worked due to lack of speed, and that Dobson showed grappling improvements in his last fight. He thinks Dobson's wrestling and athleticism will be too much for Nchukwi, and that weigh-ins will be crucial. He will likely bet Dobson if Nchukwi looks depleted.

Weigh-ins key; will bet Dobson if Nchukwi looks bad
"I'm actually picking the underdog uh AJ Dobson with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

The MMA Guru picks A.J. Dobson over Tafon Nchukwi, arguing that Dobson's losses to Jacob Malkoun and Armen Petrosyan are to quality unranked middleweights. He notes Dobson's finishing potential and experience since 2012, while Nchukwi is coming off two KO losses, which may make him hesitant. He trusts Dobson to win by finish.

"I'm gonna go AJ Dobson over tap on and check where"
LOSS vs Armen Petrosyan
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
LOSS vs Jacob Malkoun
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jacob Malkoun 0 52 of 90 57% 68 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
A.J. Dobson 0 80 of 128 62% 183 of 255 6 of 16 37% 0 0 9:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jacob Malkoun 0 41 of 69 59% 46 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
A.J. Dobson 0 24 of 48 50% 26 of 50 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:01
2 Jacob Malkoun 0 4 of 12 33% 5 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
A.J. Dobson 0 25 of 37 67% 82 of 108 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:45
3 Jacob Malkoun 0 7 of 9 77% 17 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
A.J. Dobson 0 31 of 43 72% 75 of 97 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jacob Malkoun 52 of 90 57% 41 of 79 6 of 6 5 of 5 44 of 78 5 of 9 3 of 3
A.J. Dobson 80 of 128 62% 70 of 118 9 of 9 1 of 1 29 of 57 4 of 7 47 of 64
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jacob Malkoun 41 of 69 59% 33 of 61 4 of 4 4 of 4 37 of 62 4 of 7 0 of 0
A.J. Dobson 24 of 48 50% 22 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0 23 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jacob Malkoun 4 of 12 33% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
A.J. Dobson 25 of 37 67% 23 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 5 21 of 28
3 Jacob Malkoun 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 3
A.J. Dobson 31 of 43 72% 25 of 37 5 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 26 of 36
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
A.J. Dobson vs. Jacob Malkoun

Round 1
Training partners of fan-favorite ex-UFC champs will come to blows in this middleweight encounter, as Strong Style Fight Team’s Dobson (6-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) – home of Stipe Miocic – meets PMA Super Martial Arts prospect Malkoun (5-1, 1-1 UFC), a teammate of headliner Robert Whittaker. The third man in the cage for what could be a quick one is referee Herb Dean, who is ready for whatever comes his way as he bears witness to a touch of gloves. Dobson quickly fires off a right hand, and he slips back to sling a right hand as Malkoun just dodges in time. Dobson cracks his foe with a right hand, forcing the Aussie to shoot for a desperation takedown. Dobson gets lifted up in the air, but he slithers his legs down to the mat so that he can keep his balance and not get taken down, in an impressive display of balance. “Mamba” grinds Dobson against the fence until Dobson breaks off, and he loose a quick one-two that connects cleanly on the beard of Malkoun. Dobson tries to time a right hand low when Malkoun attacks for a takedown, and Dobson once more keeps his balance when Malkoun elevates him. The newcomer manages to break the grip, pushes off and returns to his preferred boxing range. Malkoun lets go with a few punches, but Dobson grabs him to knee him in the body a few times. Malkoun flicks out a jab, but Dobson ignores them and answers with some of his own. A quick chain of punches come out as Malkoun retreats, and he connects with a solid leg kick at the end of a combination. Dobson snaps the head back with a punch and goes up high with a kick, and every strike that lands seems to draw a reaction out of his opponent. Malkoun sits down on a right hand, but Dobson does not even budge when it smacks into his cheek. Dobson stands firm, delivering a couple more one-twos and a body kick. When Malkoun lifts his man’s leg up in pursuit of a takedown, Dobson hops back and bounces off the cage wall to get free. Dobson gives chase when he lands a few punches, and Malkoun is rocked from an accumulation of damage. Dobson takes the center of the cage and swats at his shaky man, clipping him with a left hook and a one-two that bounces off the side of the head. Malkoun drops down low for a single, lifting Dobson’s leg up in the air and finally securing a takedown. He can only maintain top position for a few seconds before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dobson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dobson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dobson

Round 2
They clap hands to start of the second round, and Dobson, brimming with confidence, strides out with a few jabs. He gets off a right hand, and closes the distance to slam a knee into the Aussie’s midsection. As he lands a few more strikes, he draws out another takedown entry from “Mamba,” but that too fails as Dobson turns him around and knees him in the body. They jockey for position against the fence, and Malkoun stays doggedly in pursuit of a takedown but nothing presents itself. Dobson is able to get Malkoun to back off when he sets up a Thai clinch, and he misses a knee by an inch. Malkoun resets, crashes forward and secures a takedown. The American gets to his knees without much issue, stands back up, and gets wrenched back down with a mat return. Malkoun begins to smash Dobson in the side of the head with his fists, and Dobson is hurt and in trouble as cornerman Mark Coleman bellows for Dobson to get up. Malkoun does not let him up, raining down left hands as he keeps Dobson stuck on a knee. The strikes turn from damaging ones to more frustrating shots, but Malkoun is able to step over and sit down on Dobson’s thigh to ground him. Dobson thinks to explode, but Malkoun continues to grind and slug Dobson in the face with powerful left hands. Malkoun pursues a guillotine choke when working Dobson over, and he fails on that but does not let Dobson off the hook. Dobson bursts back to his feet with 10 seconds to go, and he pops Malkoun with a pair of punches before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malkoun
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Malkoun
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malkoun

Round 3
The middleweights greet in the center of the cage, and Dobson appears energized when back upright again. He flicks out a jab that makes Malkoun blink it out a few times, and he catches Malkoun coming in with a right hand. The Aussie changes levels for a takedown, and the defense does not hold up for Dobson this time, as he gets pulled down to the mat. Dobson remains on his knees before jumping back up, and he succumbs to a mat return when Malkoun powers him back down. “Mamba” holds on from behind, landing sporadic right hands until the unbeaten fighter stands up. Malkoun continues his assault of takedown tries, and he sucks Dobson’s legs out beneath him and lands in half guard. Dobson wriggles himself to the corner between the floor and the wall, and Coleman’s encouragement is still somehow louder than all the boos raining down in the building combined. Malkoun does not register the crowd’s disappointment with his “embrace the grind” tactics, as he thumps down on Dobson with right hands. The fighters start talking to each other, with Dobson admitting his foe is stronger than he thought, and they continue to converse as Malkoun is pounding on him. Dobson tries to get into a slugfest from his back, with punches from his back, but Malkoun’s are considerably harder. Malkoun switches from punches to elbows as he staves off a standup from Dean, and precious seconds tick off the clock while Malkoun grinds him out. With just a few seconds left in the fight, Dobson somersaults backwards to get out of the position, stands up and wings a high kick, but it comes up short of the mark right before the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malkoun (29-28 Malkoun)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Malkoun (29-27 Malkoun)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malkoun (29-28 Malkoun)

The Official Result
Jacob Malkoun def. A.J. Dobson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Angelo picks A.J. Dobson, citing his incredible hand speed and power. He worries that Malkoun could wrestle but believes Dobson's speed advantage will allow him to land three times for every one of Malkoun's looping strikes. He dismisses the 'fade the contender series' narrative and expects Dobson to laser down the middle and touch Malkoun up.

"i like aj in this fight i do worry that if jacob just ducks and shoots he'll control aj but the fact that aj is not gun shy at all and will have a very clear speed advantage i like …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Big Brady sees this fight going one of two ways: Dobson knocking out Malkoun early or Malkoun wrestling Dobson to a decision. He leans toward Dobson because of his power and finishing ability, but admits he's not confident due to lack of information on Dobson's takedown defense. He compares it to Malkoun's win over Abdul Razak Alhassan where Malkoun used wrestling. Brady picks Dobson by first round knockout but says he can't be too confident.

Dobson by first round knockout
"I think dobson knocks him out and again i can't be too confident in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Cody leans Malkoun but is not confident. He notes Malkoun's grappling looked good against Alhassan, but his chin is a concern after the Phil Hawes KO. He thinks Dobson is explosive and could land a big shot, but Malkoun's path is via takedowns.

"the official pick gonna have to go with another favorite jacob malcolm"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Daniel Levi picks Jacob Malkoun for an upset win, but is hesitant about the early going. He notes that A.J. Dobson is a freak athlete with power, but tends to overexert and fatigue. Malkoun's game plan of attempting many takedowns could work if he weathers the early storm. Levi mentions that Dobson was finished by a bum in amateurs, but that was years ago.

"i'll take jacob kuhn for an upset win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Dobson has power and trains with strong camps, but his grappling and cardio are unproven. Malkoun will shoot for takedowns early, and if Dobson can't stop them or finish early, Malkoun could take over in later rounds. Dobson's only decision win was against a low-level opponent. The pick is based on trusting Dobson's camp and power, but it's a slight lean.

Dobson by KO; live bet on Malkoun in round 2 if Dobson looks tired
"as an official prediction and as official pick i'm actually gonna go with dobson here i i think i'm gonna trust in his training camp and the guys that he's been around"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Paul picks Malkoun, citing his grappling advantage and ability to grind out a win. He notes Dobson is wild and may gas. He expects Malkoun to take Dobson down and control him, but acknowledges the volatility.

under 2.5 rounds -145
"i'm gonna pick malcoon just because i think that aj dobson is incredibly sloppy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

The MMA Guru picks Jacob Malkoun, believing he has overcome his debut jitters and will use his grappling to control A.J. Dobson. He notes Dobson's debut pressure and Malkoun's experience against better competition like Abdul Razak Alhassan.

"i'm actually gonna go with jacob malcoon here"