Career Averages - Belal Muhammad
Career Averages - Sean Brady
Belal Muhammad
Sean Brady
Belal Muhammad - Fight History
The host picks Belal Muhammad, citing his pace and cardio over five rounds as the deciding factor. He acknowledges that Bonfim is more technical and skilled, but believes Muhammad's relentless forward pressure and grappling will wear Bonfim down, especially in the later rounds. He notes that Bonfim's lone loss came to a pace-pusher in a three-round fight, and now he faces five rounds of Muhammad.
AJ believes Belal Muhammad will bounce back from recent losses to top competition, using his wrestling and control time to neutralize Gabriel Bonfim. He notes Bonfim's height advantage and striking volume but questions his takedown defense (76%) compared to Muhammad's (90%). AJ acknowledges the risk of Muhammad's age and recent striking deficits but expects a rebound win, possibly by decision.
AJ picks Bonfim to win, citing his youth, precise striking, leg kicks, and jiu-jitsu. He believes Bonfim's footwork and accuracy will trouble Muhammad, and that Muhammad's wrestling edge is negated by Bonfim's grappling. AJ expects Bonfim to do damage on the feet and possibly win by decision or late finish.
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad, believing he will slow the pace and use his wrestling to grind out a win. He notes Muhammad's toughness, cardio, and ability to outwork opponents. He thinks Muhammad needs to make the fight boring and avoid giving Bonfim room to strike. He has never seen Muhammad break, while Bonfim has been broken before.
Big Brady picks Belal Muhammad to win by decision. He highlights Muhammad's elite durability and takedown defense, and thinks the five-round fight favors Muhammad's cardio. He doubts Bonfim can take Muhammad down or knock him out, and expects Muhammad to take over as the fight goes on. He also notes that Bonfim's recent wins are questionable.
Belal Muhammad has heart and a great gas tank, and he will push the pace to win a close decision. Gabriel Bonfim is overrated, with a controversial win over Stephen Thompson and a loss to Nicolas Dalby. Bonfim tends to not push the gas pedal, while Muhammad will outwork him.
Cody picks Belal Muhammad, emphasizing that the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Muhammad due to Bonfim's poor cardio and lack of durability. He notes Bonfim is explosive early but fades, and Muhammad has proven five-round cardio and durability. He suggests live betting Muhammad after the first two rounds for better value.
Belal Muhammad is picked due to his superior cardio and pressure, which will break Gabriel Bonfim over five rounds. The host notes Bonfim's only loss was to Nicolas Dalby, who maintained a high pace, and Belal's boxing and wrestling are better. He sees Belal winning by unanimous decision or late stoppage, as Bonfim's submission skills are from top position and Belal is good at avoiding danger. The host is not sold on Bonfim as a prospect and believes Belal's championship experience is key.
Muhammad's wrestling and cardio are elite, and Bonfim has never faced a wrestler of his caliber. Bonfim's takedown defense is questionable, as he was taken down by lesser fighters. Muhammad should control the fight for 25 minutes and win a unanimous decision.
Lucrative James picks Belal Muhammad despite the 10-year age disadvantage, citing Belal's superior experience, gas tank, and wrestling. He believes Bonfim is a 'finish or bust' fighter who will fade after the first couple of rounds, and that Belal's durability and veteran savvy will allow him to survive early submission threats and take over in later rounds. He predicts a round 4 or 5 knockout via ground and pound.
Muhammad's high pace, durability, and cardio should overwhelm Bonfim, who has cardio issues. Bonfim's best chance is an early stoppage, but if it reaches the third round, Muhammad will take over and likely get a TKO in round 4.
Paul picks Belal Muhammad but is hesitant, noting Bonfim could land something early. He prefers to watch live and has placed prop bets on Muhammad winning in rounds 4 and 5 at high odds, expecting Muhammad's cardio to prevail in later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 56 of 139 | 40% | 97 of 197 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 72 of 141 | 51% | 96 of 167 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 30 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 27 of 53 | 50% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 28 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 39 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 30 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 56 of 139 | 40% | 45 of 126 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 52 of 131 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 72 of 141 | 51% | 35 of 98 | 10 of 15 | 27 of 28 | 66 of 134 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 24 of 57 | 42% | 17 of 49 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 23 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 27 of 53 | 50% | 14 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 11 of 12 | 27 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 11 of 33 | 33% | 9 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 20 of 39 | 51% | 9 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 8 | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 21 of 49 | 42% | 19 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 25 of 49 | 51% | 12 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 20 of 43 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garry (-240); Muhammad (+190)
Round 1
Many have complained that this welterweight co-main attraction is not receiving five-round attention given its high stakes and that both men prefer a prolonged engagement. Nonetheless, Muhammad (24-4, 1 NC; 15-4, 1 NC UFC) and Garry (16-1, 9-1 UFC) will have three rounds to work today, meaning that every minute will count that much more. Fully aware that this one could reach the 15-minute mark, referee Rich Mitchell is in it for the long haul. The fighters do not touch gloves, opting to get right down to business.
Muhammad punches his way in, and Garry backs him off with a low kick and one high. Garry gets away with a slight eye scrape, and after a combination, he pushes off and jams his finger into Muhammad’s right eye socket. The few punches he landed have opened a cut beneath Muhammad’s left eye, which is not the one poked. Mitchell calls time and brings in the doctor but does not have a towel or cloth to wipe out the former champ’s eye. Mitchell admonishes the doctor for not bringing in the towel, who then comes in and bizarrely (and improperly) tends to the cut instead of the eye. The fighter cleans his eye out and is ready to go after about 100 seconds. Garry is quick to get right back behind his jab, intercepting Muhammad as he looks to change levels. Garry pushes out a front kick and checks a kick, and Garry’s low kick response is far heavier. Garry fires off a high kick from a safe distance, stay away from Muhammad getting his hands on him. Muhammad tries to cream him with a huge overhand right, missing it by a matter of millimeters. He tries again with the same swinging strike, and it is much more distant this time around. Garry’s jab flusters Muhammad, but he slips and has to scramble to get away. Garry stomps at Muhammad’s knee on the reset.
Muhammad paws out with his own left hand, faking level changes to draw reactions out of his opponent and marking up Garry’s cheek. Muhammad launches a head kick to target that wound, and he crashes forward when that is blocked to tie the Irishman up. Garry escapes, but Muhammad follows him and clips him with his hard right hand. Garry times a left hand that gets Muhammad’s attention, and he manages to lean back to evade the looping strike aimed at his face. Garry pounds the front leg with a kick, and Muhammad counters him with a solid left. Muhammad shoots for a single, spinning Garry around several times but not grounding him. The taller Garry keeps himself upright and puts the wall behind him so that he can rebound and break free, and he looks for spinning strikes as the round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Round 2
Garry starts the round off with kicks to the lead knee, his oblique kicks hyperextending the limb when it lands flush. His jabs open a little cut on the bridge of the nose as well, and he catches Muhammad in the midst of an exchange but is nailed with the counter. Garry snaps the head back with a jab, and he leans to not get caught on the way out. Garry doubles up on his jab to plunk Muhammad with a right hand, and he spins with a back kick to the torso to punctuate the combination. Garry lands a hard leg kick, and Muhammad blitzes him with a body lock to take the fight horizontal. Garry splits off before getting dragged down, and Muhammad is warned for his outstretched fingers. Muhammad crashes the pocket again for a takedown, and the two clack heads when up close.
Muhammad puts his hand on the top of the fence illegally and is fussed at a few times before taking it back down, and the clinch continues. Muhammad embraces the grind by pressing as much of his body weight on the Irishman as he can, but Garry breaks free and trades hands with him on the way out. Muhammad shoots for a single, and Garry stifles him and bullies him on the way out. Muhammad bounces off the fence to reset, and he drives a one-two down the pipe. Garry pushes out with both hands, fingers outstretched, and he pokes Muhammad in the eye with at least his left. Mitchell calls time again and demands the doctor come back into the cage with another cloth to let him wipe it out, and Muhammad is irritated about the fouls landing on him again. Rules mean nothing, because Garry is only told to be careful with his fingers after landing multiple eye pokes and already being warned for this as well. Muhammad is good to go after about 75 seconds, and he proceeds to chase down the Irishman letting his hands go. Muhammad drops to a knee to go after a takedown, and he pushes Garry to the fence. Garry shrugs to signal he is just being held in place, so Muhammad knees him in the thigh a few times for good measure. Garry breaks out of the clinch with an elbow right at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 3
Muhammad takes a few seconds to charge his battery, and then proceeds to angrily race after Garry with his fists swinging. Garry bounces off the cage wall to get to his preferred range, and he nails Muhammad with a one-two. He follows the effective strike with a front kick that bashes “Remember the Name” in the face. Muhammad can only reply with a single entry, and Garry stops it, ducking away when Muhammad tries for something on the break. Muhammad walks him down and belts him with a vicious right hand, and Garry’s chin is granite after absorbing the blow. Muhammad bullies Garry to the wire when pursuing a takedown, and Garry’s defense holds up while Muhammad gloms onto him. Garry turns him about and has his guard ready to defend the high kick he anticipates.
Garry hurts Muhammad’s front leg with a number of push kicks to the knee, again hyperextending it and torqueing the tendons like overtuned guitar strings about to snap. They spin one another around when finding themselves in a clinch, and Garry is tripped up and bounces back to his feet as if there were springs in his heels. The Irishman walks through a pair of punches to fire back with a vengeance, clipping Muhammad with a right hand and shifting to be just out of range of anticipated counters. Muhammad settles for a clinch try, and Garry splits before long but has his hands down waiting for Muhammad to approach him. This allows Muhammad to pop him in the chops with several fast punches, only to get met with a slashing elbow that would make Jason Voorhees blush. Muhammad holds serve as he tries to give Garry everything he has left, and the two men proceed to go wild with head kicks, spinning stuff, looping punches and anything else they can muster until time expires. This one was very close and scores may vary, but a title shot may not be looming for the victor given the other recent spectacular performances at welterweight for names like Michael Morales and Carlos Prates.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garry (30-27 Garry)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garry (30-27 Garry)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garry (29-28 Garry)
The Official Result
Ian Garry def. Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Ian Garry over Belal Muhammad. He argues that if Garry can defend takedowns, he wins easily due to superior striking, length, speed, and power. Muhammad's only path is wrestling, but he has no Plan B. Garry showed adjustments in his loss to Shavkat, while Muhammad is one-dimensional. Angelo acknowledges the fight is competitive but favors Garry.
Big Brady picks Ian Machado Garry by decision, criticizing Belal Muhammad's fight IQ and game plan. He believes Muhammad will try to strike instead of wrestle, leading to a clear decision loss. He notes Muhammad's tools but doubts his execution.
Cody picks Ian Garry confidently, noting that Belal Muhammad's wins are aging poorly and that Garry is younger, bigger, and has better takedown defense. He believes Garry can outpoint Muhammad and stuff takedowns, similar to how Michael Morales beat Brady. Cody warns against falling into the trap of hating on Belal, but ultimately sees Garry's advantages.
Connor picks Garry, citing his size, reach, and athleticism as key advantages over Muhammad. He notes that Muhammad's wins have come against smaller opponents and that Garry's improved striking and clinch work from the Prochazka fight give him confidence. Connor acknowledges Muhammad's tactical skill but doubts his physicality at the elite level.
Lucrative James picks Ian Garry, citing his superior striking, youth (27 vs 37), and recent grappling improvements shown against Shavkat Rakhmonov. He believes Belal's only path is wrestling, but Garry's takedown defense and scrambling have improved. He notes the 10-year age gap and Garry's momentum. He predicts a decision win for Garry.
Garry is a slick striker with high fight IQ and takedown defense. Muhammad relies on grappling pressure but may struggle to get takedowns. Garry should out-strike him and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.
Paul picks Ian Garry, having added him to parlays early. He believes Garry's length, footwork, and takedown defense will be too much for Belal, who is at the end of his career. Paul notes that Belal's wins are aging poorly and that Garry's striking and ring IQ are superior.
The MMA Guru picks Ian Garry over Belal Muhammad, believing Garry's striking and takedown defense will be too much. He notes Garry's performances against Shavkat and MVP. He predicts a third-round TKO, with Garry calling out Makhachev afterward.
Zane also picks Garry, emphasizing his faith in Garry's improved game plan and coaching from the Prochazka fight. He notes that Garry's reach and ability to control range will trouble Muhammad, who lacks the athleticism to pressure effectively. Zane sees Muhammad's path to victory as narrow, requiring a perfect game plan.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 132 of 318 | 41% | 155 of 349 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 178 of 342 | 52% | 200 of 364 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 28 of 61 | 45% | 28 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 21 of 63 | 33% | 21 of 63 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 30 of 63 | 47% | 30 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 32 of 79 | 40% | 32 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 34 of 76 | 44% | 35 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 35 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 33 of 59 | 55% | 51 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 27 of 62 | 43% | 46 of 88 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 53 of 83 | 63% | 56 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 132 of 318 | 41% | 119 of 297 | 11 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 116 of 295 | 14 of 21 | 2 of 2 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 178 of 342 | 52% | 113 of 254 | 47 of 65 | 18 of 23 | 167 of 326 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 21 of 49 | 42% | 15 of 40 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 28 of 61 | 45% | 14 of 39 | 7 of 11 | 7 of 11 | 27 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 21 of 63 | 33% | 19 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 61 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 30 of 63 | 47% | 16 of 45 | 10 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 32 of 79 | 40% | 29 of 74 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 76 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 34 of 76 | 44% | 20 of 58 | 10 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 31 of 65 | 47% | 30 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 54 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 33 of 59 | 55% | 27 of 48 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 32 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 27 of 62 | 43% | 26 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 53 of 83 | 63% | 36 of 64 | 16 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 45 of 74 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Muhammad (-192), Della Maddalena (+160)
Round 1
Sometimes, a champion does not defend their throne against the top contender, but rather the top contender that is available at the time. This welterweight headliner will see Muhammad (24-3, 1 NC; 15-3, 1 NC UFC) put his belt on the line for the first time, and he meets Della Maddalena (17-2, 7-0 UFC) for all the marbles in a prototypical striker vs. grappler matchup at the highest level. Referee Jason Herzog will be the third man in the Octagon for a match that could very well go 25 hard minutes, and he brings them to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and touch gloves. It’s on with the show. Della Maddalena immediately takes to the center of the cage, where he jabs his way forward. Muhammad responds with a body shot, and Della Maddalena jabs him up. Della Maddalena kicks and punches his way forward, beating the champ to the punch. Muhammad responds with his own jab and a high kick that makes Della Maddalena spin around, from momentum and not damage. They flick jabs at one another, with Della Maddalena the more active of the two. Della Maddalena picks and pokes, and Della Maddalena responds with a power right hand. He lands a second, getting the challenger’s attention. The Aussie keeps his guard up to block a trio of punches coming his way, and kicks the champ upside the head and lances him with a left hand. A right hand from Della Maddalena stings Muhammad with a right hand up top, and he gets jabbed back and eats a right hand that follows. Della Maddalena’s leg kick lands a few times here and there when not landing up top, and he chains a low kick into one high. Della Maddalena sneaks in a left hand, and he nails the front leg with another kick. Muhammad lunges and cannot reach his man, but he sells out and shoots for something. He bails on it to drill Della Maddalena with a punch flurry, and his head kick at the end gets in. Muhammad dodges a knee and pushes out his own jab, and he rips a left to the body and kicks the same spot. They crash together, letting loose elbows that hurt the other, and then back off. One missed hook kick from the champ concludes the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Round 2
Della Maddalena begins the second stanza aggressively with kicks aimed at all targets, and he pulls back when Muhammad starts to put a jab together. Muhammad rifles off a right hand, and when Della Maddalena ducks, the champ punts him in the head. Della Maddalena’s crooked nose stays crooked as a result, and he reaches out a right hand in response. The toes of the challenger stab into his foe’s midsection, who sits in the pocket and looks for hooks from up close. Della Maddalena drives home a one-two that sends a gob of spit flying from Muhammad’s mouth, and Muhammad takes it flush and does not waver. Instead, Muhammad evades a front kick and lashes out with punches. They take turns attacking one another, until Muhammad breaks up the back-and-forth striking with a takedown shot. Della Maddalena shrugs it off, and he blocks a high kick that he knows is coming. Muhammad loops a few left hands out while trying to wrap them around the jab, and he kicks the challenger in the side that is already showing some welting. Muhammad punches his way into a takedown, and when it fails, he lands a few punches but gets caught on the way out. Muhammad catches Della Maddalena with a left hand when circling away, and he parries a front kick and comes up short by a matter of inches with his hooks. Della Maddalena jabs to the body, and Muhammad whacks him upside the head with a hard right hand. Della Maddalena responds with a combination that busts Muhammad’s nose open, and blood is quick to flow. Muhammad tries a spinning back fist, and Della Maddalena mocks him with one of his own before attempting an earnest wheel kick that brushes past the beard. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Round 3
The third round opens up as both men launch punches at one another, with Muhammad landing the better in the early exchange. Della Maddalena bites down on his mouthpiece to let his fists fly, and the third and fourth in a combination knock the champ’s head around. Della Maddalena dodges and sways when Muhammad returns fire, exaggerating his movement as he is feeling himself in there. Della Maddalena jabs the body with his foot, and kicks the lead shoulder. Muhammad responds in kind, and he laughs off a faked takedown effort from the Aussie. Muhammad punches his way forward, but he backs off before landing anything of merit. Instead, it is Della Maddalena who connects, with a right hand. Muhammad walks him down and connects a few times, but his nose gets further bloodied up by the speedy hands of the challenger. Della Maddalena chips at the calf, and he leans back as a right hand buzzes his temple. Della Maddalena jabs a few times, and Muhammad steels himself and launches a big right. Della Maddalena takes it flush and keeps on rolling, jabbing to the head and body as he keeps things mixed up. He rings the champ’s bell with a right hand, who then gives him back a left hook to think about. Muhammad pushes out a knee that bounces off the guard, and he chambers and fires a huge right hand that does not fluster his foe in the least. Muhammad runs forward, ignoring the jabs to let bigger punches go. This succeeds to a degree, until the boxer tags him with a right hand. Della Maddalena then scores a left as he backs away, in his element, strafing and swaying as he glides around. Muhammad walks him down and busts him in the face, and Della Maddalena laughs them off and throws back hammers. Muhammad shoots for a takedown, and he leans against his foe when he does not get it. Della Maddalena defends it and tries for his own, and Muhammad elbows him in the side and back of the head. Muhammad is warned for the strikes as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Round 4
Shockingly, the champion might need a finish as they enter the fourth frame, and given Muhammad’s 25% stoppage rate, it might be an uphill battle. Nevertheless, he tries hard right out of the gate, practically sprinting at the challenger and landing heavy punches. Della Maddalena lets him do this and backs away to the wall to rebound off of it, but his jabs are not deterring Muhammad any longer. Muhammad marks up the bridge of Della Maddalena’s nose, swinging with big uppercuts and getting caught on the way in. The champ shoots for a takedown, and he lets it go to unload with a massive combination of uppercuts. Della Maddalena pays him back with his own power shots, spraying the blood from Muhammad’s face all around the cage floor. Muhammad uses his pressure to push on Della Maddalena and try to take him down, and he aims a knee to the dome that is legal while Della Maddalena is leaned over. Della Maddalena succeeds in defending the takedown and spins his man around, and Muhammad breaks and lets loose a short stream of uppercuts. Della Maddalena walks him down, walks through an uppercut and ignores a jab so that he can measure his own shots. Muhammad swings wildly with a right hand and back fist after it, and Maddalena jabs and dodges. Muhammad shoots for a double, and Della Maddalena shuts him down and turns Muhammad to the wire. Muhammad spins him around and looks for a head kick up close, but he cannot keep Della Maddalena on the fence. A left hand from Muhammad blows open Della Maddalena’s cauliflower ear, and Della Maddalena responds with a right hand. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 5
Muhammad plods forward to commence the final frame, taking a deep breath and jabbing Della Maddalena around the cage. Muhammad rips a kick to the body, and he swings punches that bang into his foe’s forehead. Muhammad keeps heavy pressure, dodging a one-two and coming out swinging with a pair of right hooks. Della Maddalena staggers him with three left hands, and he skips to the side and intercepts Muhammad with a vicious knee that shreds a cut open on the corner of Muhammad’s eye. Rather than think about it, he blasts Della Maddalena with a counter, and he shoots for a takedown and finally lands it. Positioning himself in half guard, Muhammad smothers with his shoulder pressing the Aussie down. The champ hammers down with ground-and-pound, his blood covering Della Maddalena’s chest, which allows him to slip around and explode back to his feet. Della Maddalena’s eye swells up quickly from the damage inflicted, and Muhammad runs at him with his fists flying. Della Maddalena backs him off for a second with a front kick, and they proceed to hack at one another with elbows. Della Maddalena clubs the champion with a left, a right and a few more punches as he has “Remember the Name” rocked. Della Maddalena clinches up for a second before letting loose with body shots, and he tries a takedown and gets thrown to the ground. Muhammad scrambles to push Della Maddalena to his back, where he frantically lashes out with punches and elbows. Della Maddalena protects himself by putting his head between Muhammad’s legs, and he bursts back to his feet. Muhammad leans him against the cage and tries to get him down, but Della Maddalena pushes him away and kicks him in the head. The Aussie drills Muhammad with a punch combo that staggers him badly, but he peels back rather than trying to finish the job. He re-engages, and Muhammad is ready for him throwing hammers. Della Maddalena does the same right to the final bell, and the two welterweights go the distance in a thriller that few expected would turn out this way. There may be a new champion crowned, but either way, Muhammad shed part of his reputation of being boring with that 25-minute banger.
The scores are read, and just like that, the Muhammad era is over before he could defend it once. Australia has a new champion in the form of hard-nosed brawler Della Maddalena, who stepped up to the plate and exceeded all expectations with that performance. The Contender Series has another champion from its ranks, with Della Maddalena pushing his phenomenal win streak to 18 thanks to his likely bonus-winning battle. Because of this result, lightweight king Islam Makhachev is going to move up and be the first to challenge Della Maddalena soon, while Ilia Topuria takes on Charles Oliveira—possibly for an interim title—on International Fight Week. The confident new champion declares that he will "get one back for Volk" against Makhachev. We will be here for those terrific matchups, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (48-47 Della Maddalena)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)
The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad to defend his belt, trusting his wrestling and control. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down seven times by Gilbert Burns and survived by a lucky knee. He hopes Belal fights like he did against Wonderboy (wrestle-heavy) rather than standing. He mentions the line is tightening and suggests waiting to bet. He also notes that if Belal wins, it sets up Ilia vs Islam at International Fight Week.
Big Brady is confident in Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling and fight IQ. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down eight times by an aging Gilbert Burns and struggled with Basil Hafez. He believes Muhammad will wrestle despite claiming otherwise, and predicts a decision win. He thinks the only way Muhammad loses is if he fights a horrible game plan.
Connor picks Belal Muhammad but with hesitation, expressing concern that Belal lacks the athletic escape ropes to get out of trouble against JDM. He notes that JDM has a habit of violently winning fights he is losing, and that Belal's wrestling may not be a reliable get-out-of-jail card. However, he ultimately believes Belal's game planning and durability will allow him to win a narrow decision.
The host views this as a favorable matchup for Muhammad after Rakhmonov's injury. He believes Muhammad's grappling, high pressure, and pace will be too much for Della Maddalena, keeping him on the defensive. He expects Muhammad to set up his grappling and grind out a decision victory.
The MMA Guru picks JDM, citing his finishing potential, ability to separate and scramble, and work with Craig Jones. He believes JDM's forward pressure and body shots will trouble Belal, who he thinks is overrated after the Leon Edwards win. He predicts a second-round TKO, noting JDM's 17-fight win streak and Belal's inactivity.
Zane picks Belal Muhammad, arguing that Belal is a great game planner who can work around Jack Della Maddalena's limited game. He notes that Belal has successfully game-planned against many different styles, and while JDM is a dangerous puncher, Belal's durability and ability to rebuild after adversity will carry him. Zane acknowledges that Belal may only need one takedown per round to win rounds and retain his title.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 47 of 71 | 66% | 89 of 114 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 7:11 |
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 68 of 121 | 56% | 192 of 281 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 12:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 25 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 51 of 75 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 17 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 27 of 39 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 19 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:18 |
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 9 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:30 |
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 21 of 30 | 70% | 62 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:17 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 18 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:44 |
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 43 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 47 of 71 | 66% | 32 of 53 | 12 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 35 of 58 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 6 |
| Leon Edwards | 68 of 121 | 56% | 59 of 110 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 62 of 111 | 0 of 4 | 6 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 15 of 21 | 71% | 7 of 12 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Leon Edwards | 17 of 34 | 50% | 14 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 11 of 16 | 68% | 8 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Leon Edwards | 13 of 22 | 59% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Leon Edwards | 4 of 9 | 44% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 6 of 10 | 60% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Leon Edwards | 21 of 30 | 70% | 18 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 13 of 20 | 65% | 11 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 |
| Leon Edwards | 13 of 26 | 50% | 11 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Leon Edwards to win, citing Edwards' sharper striking and takedown defense. He notes that Belal Muhammad's wrestling pressure could be a factor, but expects Edwards to defend takedowns and frustrate Belal as the fight goes on. Angelo admits he will be rooting for Belal but believes Edwards is the more proven champion. He also mentions that Belal has been training with the Dagestani wrestlers and could maul Edwards, but still leans Edwards.
Cody believes Belal Muhammad is a talented generalist who can adapt his game plan to any opponent. He points out that Belal has shown different wrinkles, such as out-striking Gilbert Burns and Shawn Brady, and that his wrestling and pressure will be key. Cody notes that Leon Edwards has a history of dropping later rounds, as seen against Colby Covington and Rafael dos Anjos, and that Belal's volume and pace could overwhelm Leon in the championship rounds. He also mentions that Belal is at his best now, while Leon's previous opponents were past their prime.
Daniel argues that the first fight was not a domination, citing no knockdowns, no 10-8 round, and a close strike count. He believes Belal's relentless pace, high output, and ability to pressure will overwhelm Leon, who has shown fatigue in later rounds. He also notes that Belal is undervalued by the market and has consistently been a profitable underdog. He acknowledges Leon's kicking threat but thinks Belal can close distance and make it a dirty fight.
Daniel argues that Belal Muhammad has improved significantly since the first fight, citing dominant wins over Shawn Brady and Gilbert Burns. He believes Leon Edwards has not looked better since winning the title, coasting against Colby Covington and a diminished Kamaru Usman. He emphasizes Belal's newfound wrestling focus and improved striking reads, predicting he will overwhelm Edwards. He also advises waiting on Belal's line as it may drift further due to public sentiment against Belal's trash talk.
Jeff picks Leon Edwards, noting he looked good in the brief first fight and has been improving since winning the belt. He acknowledges Edwards' recent opponents (Covington, Usman, Diaz) are not elite, but still trusts the champion's development. He believes Edwards' reads and feints were working before the eye poke and expects him to handle Belal's pressure.
Paul favors Leon Edwards, citing his speed, slickness, and striking advantage. He argues that Leon was winning the first fight before the eye poke and has improved his takedown defense, as seen against Colby Covington. Paul believes Belal's power doesn't scare him and that Leon will win most exchanges on the feet. He also notes that Belal's path to victory relies on takedowns and control, but Leon has made strides in those areas.
The MMA Guru picks Leon Edwards by TKO in round two. He believes Edwards is a level above Belal Muhammad, as shown in their first fight where Edwards had success before the head kick. The Guru notes Edwards' reach advantage, distance management, and improved takedown defense from training with wrestlers like Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington. He thinks Muhammad will be hesitant and that Edwards will land a punch for the finish. He also mentions Muhammad's PED use as a concern but still favors Edwards.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 132 of 283 | 46% | 132 of 283 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 81 of 147 | 55% | 81 of 147 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 15 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 25 of 59 | 42% | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 28 of 54 | 51% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 42 of 80 | 52% | 42 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 132 of 283 | 46% | 92 of 241 | 39 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 132 of 283 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 81 of 147 | 55% | 35 of 96 | 13 of 16 | 33 of 35 | 81 of 147 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 19 of 39 | 48% | 9 of 29 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 15 of 31 | 48% | 7 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 18 of 51 | 35% | 11 of 44 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 15 of 28 | 53% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 25 of 59 | 42% | 20 of 53 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 14 of 22 | 63% | 7 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 28 of 54 | 51% | 18 of 44 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 16 of 23 | 69% | 6 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 42 of 80 | 52% | 34 of 71 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 42 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 21 of 43 | 48% | 9 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-125), Muhammad (+105)
Round 1
A rarity in the promotion the last several years, the UFC is offering up an official “title eliminator” status for a fight. This comes at 170 pounds, between two excelling talents who are stringing win streaks together at the right time. While many believe Muhammad (22-3, 1 NC; 13-3, 1 NC UFC) should have gotten a title shot already, he will look to push his unbeaten streak to 10 when he collides with brick-fisted grappler Burns (22-5, 15-5 UFC). The two will have five rounds to work, even with no championship or main event status available. This short-notice tilt will receive oversight from referee Keith Peterson, and there is no nonsense or touching of gloves to start things off. Chants for “Let’s go, Burns” rain down immediately in the building, and Burns is spurred into action with a charging right hand. Muhammad absorbs a low kick and looks to find angles and get to Burns with his footwork. Muhammad ricochets a kick off his opponent’s raised guard, and he sneaks a left hand through it. Burns loads up on his power right hand, and Muhammad darts away and aims out a jab. Another solid right from the Brazilian connects square on the chin, and Muhammad backs off and eats a leg kick to follow. Burns flicks a kick up high off the raised guard, and he sneaks a right hand through. Muhammad retaliates with a shin to the ribs, and Burns intercepts a subsequent kick to tackle his man to the mat. Muhammad climbs right back up and strikes a few more kicks to the liver, and he dodges a swatting left hook. Muhammad stays composed and utilizes his jab effectively, mixing in kicks occasionally to stay busier. Burns comes up short on a winging hook, and he kicks the body. Muhammad counters with a straight left hand that staggers Burns, and Burns grits his teeth and slams his right fist into Muhammad’s jaw twice to make “Remember the Name” remember his power. Burns has a kick caught, and he scrambles out of the way before getting dumped to the floor. Burns goes up high with a kick, and Burns stumbles back right as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 2
The second frame kicks off as the two welterweights meet in the middle, and Burns strikes first with a stomping kick to the kneecap. Muhammad strafes to his right, and Burns follows him with a kick to the inside of the knee. Burns comes up short with a right hook, allowing Muhammad to sink in another liver kick. Burns chambers and fires a low kick and a massive right hand, and Muhammad’s beard absorbs it without much issue. Muhammad whips a high kick up, and he aims one to the body as Burns retaliates low to the inner calf. Burns paws away a one-two, and he gathers his thoughts to blast Muhammad in the face with a power right. Muhammad replies with a blocked head kick, and Burns hops around to shake it out. Muhammad is far less active, as Burns steps in with a right. The jabs from Muhammad are less constant, and Burns stings him with a right hand on the temple. Muhammad flashes his jab a few times, and Burns walks into one and storms forward. Muhammad times a body kick, and Burns gives him one to the calf back. Burns fires off a short right hand when Muhammad bears down on him, and he lets go with an inside low kick. Muhammad rips a kick to the side, and Burns surges into action and has a right hand slide off the shoulder. Burns lets fly a low kick, and he dodges a zipping left hand. Muhammad gives chase, and his fists collide with the guard. The slower round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 3
The round begins with a body kick from the Brazilian, and Muhammad retaliates with a front kick that grazes the cup. There is no pause, as Burns waves it off, and the crowd grows restless from the otherwise lack of action in the first minute. Muhammad gets off a jab or two, and Burns chambers his right hand and blocks a head kick. Burns gets off a single jab of his own, and he steps back from a looping punch. Burns kicks the lead leg a few times, and he stumbles when walking forward. Muhammad fires off a high kick that smacks into a shoulder, and Burns swings and misses wit ha haymaker. The pace is very deliberate and ineffective on both sides, and Muhammad throws two punches at a time if he can. Burns backs off, and Muhammad follows him with a head kick that bounces off the shoulder and a few straight punches. Burns tags him with a big right hand, and Muhammad shakes it off and sneaks a kick under Burns’ elbow. Burns steps in with a knee to the chest, and he gets kicked in the neck for his effort. The Brazilian appears no worse for wear, and he backs away when Muhammad jabs and front kicks at him. Burns throws a high body kick that smacks into the armpit, and Muhammad chains two kicks together with his left leg. Muhammad jabs quickly when Burns races forward, and he stays active with kicks. Muhammad gets into his groove of head kicks and jabs, stifling Burns. “Durinho” swings and misses with his right, and Muhammad makes him pay with a body shot. The tepid round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 4
Between rounds, Burns appears to be struggling with his left arm, and he complains to his corner that he cannot use it. Despite this, the championship rounds are upon them, and Burns’ body language and face show he is not having a good time in the cage. Muhammad compounds this by starting off Round 4 with a body kick and a few punches, and Burns blinks hard and drills Muhammad with a right hand on the jaw. Muhammad shakes it targets the same spot on the ribs with one more kick. Burns shells up as Muhammad kicks his body, and Burns replies with one of his own. Muhammad narrowly blocks a head kick in time, with Burns surprising him with the sudden strike. Muhammad stutter-steps his way into action, with a one-two off the guard as he leans back from a home run punch soaring at him. Burns drops down to snatch up a single, and he nails Muhammad with a blistering right hand that gives Muhammad a little wobble. Burns celebrates this with a body kick, a knee to the body and a leg kick, and he backs Muhammad away with a feint. Burns considers another single, and he abandons it because he cannot use his arm to secure it. Muhammad kicks high to the hurt arm, and Burns grimaces. Seeing this, Muhammad attacks it again with a kick up high. Muhammad shrugs off a leg kick to the inside of his knee, and he fires off two kicks to the shoulder. Burns blocks the strikes that come at him, and he splits a right hand down the pipe that shakes Muhammad up again. Muhammad weathers it and goes to jab, and the round ends with the crowd booing the welterweights.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 5
A dejected Burns is able to come out of his corner to start the last round, and a corner stoppage would not be out of the question given Burns condition. This sport rarely allows for such a courtesy, and the last round begins. Burns blocks an early head kick and loops two right hands over the top. Burns drops down for a takedown, and he abandons it and absorbs a few kicks to the head and body. Muhammad reaches his foe with a lunging right, and he is out of range when Burns attempts his overhand right. Burns is caught with a right hand coming in, and he wobbles back but gathers his balance. Muhammad punishes the ribs with the umpteenth kick to that same target, and Burns toughs it out. They both clash together with their fists, and Muhammad is the one to land better and backs Burns away. Burns secures a leg kick to buckle Muhammad’s knee for a second, but Muhammad speedily recovers and he takes another. Burns leaps in with a few rights, and Muhammad counters and fearlessly walks Burns down. Muhammad leans back from the obligatory right hook and tags him with a few punches, and he sees the telegraphed bomb and dodges it again. Burns knocks Muhammad back with his right, only for Muhammad to step in front of him and connect with a one-two. Burns swings and misses with two missiles that are right hands, with his left completely out of the picture in this fight other than as a blocking limb. They both trade heavy fire, and Muhammad darts out of harm’s way when Burns looks to reach him. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Muhammad kicks high and then aims one to the body, and the disappointing 25-minute affair comes to a merciful conclusion. The two immediately hug it out after the bell rings, and Muhammad should finally have done enough to earn a crack at the 170-pound throne.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (50-45 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)
The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling pressure and improved striking. He notes that Gilbert Burns is coming off a quick turnaround (fought three weeks ago) and that fighters in that situation often lose. Angelo believes Belal's wrestling pace will overwhelm Burns, and he questions Burns' submission threat off his back. He has a quarter unit on Belal at +105, noting the line has tightened from Burns being a big favorite.
Big Brady picks Muhammad in this five-round fight. He believes Burns is the better striker early with more power, but Muhammad's cardio, pressure, and volume will wear Burns down in the later rounds. He notes Burns has questionable cardio and chin, and Muhammad has excellent takedown defense and get-up game. He predicts Muhammad will weather the early storm and finish Burns late, possibly by fourth-round TKO.
Cody emphasizes that the five-round format heavily favors Belal Muhammad's proven cardio and durability over Gilbert Burns, who has questionable gas tank. He notes Belal's high ring IQ, ability to adjust game plans (lateral movement vs Luque, forward pressure vs Brady), and that Burns' recent wins are over older or less dangerous opponents. He expects Belal to survive early rounds and take over late, making the underdog line attractive.
Connor also picks Muhammad, agreeing that Burns is uncomfortable under pressure and that Muhammad's jab will be key. He notes that Muhammad is a smart fighter who sticks to his game plan and that Burns' wrestling may not be a decisive factor. Connor expresses concern about Muhammad's short notice but trusts his conditioning.
The host picks Belal Muhammad, citing his pace, pressure, and cardio as key advantages over Gilbert Burns. He believes Muhammad's grappling-heavy style, similar to Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, will wear down Burns, who has cardio issues. He expects Muhammad to finish Burns in the fourth or fifth round, and notes that the plus 120 odds look easy.
Paul initially leaned toward Gilbert Burns but changed his mind after realizing the fight is five rounds, which makes the line more reasonable. He notes Burns' quick turnaround and Belal's experience fighting after Ramadan without issue. He says he's 'leaning ever so slightly towards Belal' because of the five rounds, but thinks the market has it right and it's a close fight.
The Guru confidently picks Burns, citing his peak physical condition from fighting frequently and his power advantage on the feet. He believes Burns will set traps and land big shots as Belal comes forward, and that Belal's takedowns won't worry Burns due to his jiu-jitsu. He also questions Belal's mindset and weight cut, noting Belal's complaints and inconsistent weight claims. He predicts a TKO via right hand against the cage.
Zane picks Muhammad, emphasizing that Burns tends to destruct under pressure and that Muhammad's jab-centric striking is a great weapon against Burns' catch-and-counter style. He notes that Muhammad is adaptable and well-prepared, and that Burns' recent performance against Masvidal was uninspiring. Zane also mentions that the five-round fight favors Muhammad's cardio and pressure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 80 of 209 | 38% | 80 of 209 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Brady | 0 | 58 of 118 | 49% | 58 of 118 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 26 of 80 | 32% | 26 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Brady | 0 | 25 of 62 | 40% | 25 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 54 of 129 | 41% | 54 of 129 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Brady | 0 | 33 of 56 | 58% | 33 of 56 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 80 of 209 | 38% | 64 of 183 | 11 of 19 | 5 of 7 | 79 of 206 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Brady | 58 of 118 | 49% | 40 of 98 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 14 | 57 of 117 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 26 of 80 | 32% | 18 of 66 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 26 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Brady | 25 of 62 | 40% | 15 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 54 of 129 | 41% | 46 of 117 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 53 of 126 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Brady | 33 of 56 | 58% | 25 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 32 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-145), Muhammad (+125)
Round 1
Headlining the prelims is a welterweight matchup that could easily and comfortably headliner any UFC Fight Night or ESPN-run event. For a possible shot at the logjammed welterweight throne, Muhammad (21-3, 1 NC; 12-3, 1 NC UFC) and his eight-fight unbeaten streak run up against Brady (15-0, 5-0 UFC), who has never dropped a pro fight. Someone will take a rough loss, barring something unexpected, and referee Lukasz Bosacki will be there for it. The 170ers have a strange bit of bad blood between them and decide not to touch ‘em up, and instead Muhammad comes out aggressively to push the pace on the undefeated fighter. Muhammad scores a left hand down the pipe, and Brady looks to swipe back at him and only lands a calf kick. Muhammad keeps moving forward and clips Brady with a right hand, and he retreats as Brady races forward. Brady works the lead leg with kicks, and he walks into a knee and forces Muhammad to fall over. When Muhammad stands, Brady gives him a shove to put him back to his seat but does not follow him down. Brady allows him to stand so that he can bust him in the chops with a right hand, and he gets a few punches off that get Muhammad’s attention. Muhammad keeps coming forward as he lines up a head kick, and Brady backs him away with a high body kick. Muhammad kicks the leg, and Brady changes levels in pursuit of a takedown but it is nowhere close to materializing. Brady backs off and whips a high kick up fast, and when it is guarded, he follows it with a clean right hand over the top. Muhammad pins a one-two on the chin, and Brady counters him to make him take a step back. Brady gets tagged with a short combination, and he blocks a head kick that follows. Muhammad gets out a left hand and the two start trading, with Brady landing flush and Muhammad giving it right back to him. Muhammad connects with a heavy right hand that draws some swelling under Brady’s right eye, and Brady shoots in from a distance and does not draw out a reaction. Muhammad walks him down and starts throwing hands, and Brady replies with a left hand that opens a cut on the side of Muhammad’s right eye. The horn sounds awkwardly, and the razor-close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 2
The pace from Muhammad does not relent as the second round begins, continuously pressing forward as Brady sits down on counters. The welterweight contenders trade low kicks, and Brady shoots and is stopped in his tracks. Brady gets off a sharp left hook that splits the guard, and he smacks Muhammad in the nose with a front kick. Brady gets off another left hook as Muhammad is walking him down, and he kicks the body to give Muhammad momentary pause. Muhammad sticks out a jab that reddens the nose, and Brady lines up a one-two that shakes Muhammad up. Muhammad keeps his fists in Brady’s face, and the nose starts to leak from the offense. Brady jumps forward, mixing punches with kicks, and Muhammad stands firm in front of him and responds with a blocked head kick. Brady leaps forward with a powerful left hook, and he celebrates his work with a low single that gets stuffed by “Remember the Name.” Muhammad lands two punches as Brady prepares and connects with a counter, and he gets rocked with a short left hand. Muhammad blinks it out and fires back with a venomous right hand, and he uses several jabs to back Brady up. A Brady entry is tossed aside, and they trade jabs as Muhammad begins to unload on his punches. They kick at the same time, and Muhammad falls to the mat and jumps back up. A shovel uppercut from the Philadelphia native gets through, and he tries to get off a combination but has his bell rung by Muhammad. Muhammad pours it on with combinations, and he hurts Brady and puts him on the proverbial ropes. Muhammad continues his bombardment of unanswered punches as he batters Brady on the wall, and Brady is in big trouble and leans over from taking punishment. Muhammad stays right in his face, pounding on him with an assault of fiery fists. Brady tries to keep Muhammad honest with a heavy counter or two, but Muhammad will not relent as he drills Brady in the face again and again. The seemingly unending barrage of blows continues until Movahedi dives in to call it a standing TKO, and Brady immediately protests although he was in a bad, bad way. “Remember the Name” makes the crowd remember his name as he moves his unbeaten streak to nine, while handing Brady his first defeat as a professional. Muhammad declares that he fought down to face Brady, and that it is time to fight up – calling out champion Leon Edwards or Khamzat Chimaev for future opportunities.
The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Sean Brady R2 4:47 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad despite admitting it goes against his gut. He believes Belal's constant pressure and wrestling volume will be the difference, as Sean Brady has cardio issues and tends to slow down. He compares it to the Maximov vs Malkoun fight, where constant shooting won the day.
Big Brady picks the underdog Belal Muhammad to win by decision. He questions Brady's takedown defense (87% but untested) and notes Brady slowed down in the Chiesa and McGee fights. Muhammad has superior cardio, volume, and takedown defense (91%). He expects Muhammad to have success in the striking as the fight goes on and win a decision.
Cody picks Belal as an underdog, citing his relentless pace, excellent cardio, and underrated wrestling. He notes Belal's takedowns against top competition and his solid chin. Cody thinks Brady's striking is better but Belal can grind him down. He also mentions the Abu Dhabi factor and Khabib's help.
Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad to win, calling it 'first L time' for Sean Brady. He praises Belal's fight IQ, cardio, and ability to adapt, noting he stuffed 20 takedowns against Damian Maia and overcame adversity against Vicente Luque. Levi thinks Belal's preparation with Khabib Nurmagomedov will help him deal with Brady's top control. He believes Belal will pull away in the second and third rounds. Levi bet 2 units at +116.
Brady is very difficult to take down, with only one takedown allowed in four UFC fights. He transitions well from takedown attempts to back control, as seen against Chiesa. Muhammad's wrestling-heavy style may not work, and Brady's power striking could land. Brady by decision at +150 is a solid play.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Belal's smart game plan and ability to stick to it. He mentions Belal's grappling success against Vicente Luque and that Brady hasn't been tested against top competition. Paul likes the plus money and picks Belal.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady over Belal Muhammad, despite Brady being a favorite. He believes Brady's grappling threat will stifle Belal's stand-up, similar to the Damian Maia fight. He notes Brady's improvements, including a grappling match with Craig Jones, and predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Brady winning the first two rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 84 of 184 | 45% | 102 of 203 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 60 of 155 | 38% | 136 of 260 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 7:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 9 of 33 | 27% | 35 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 24 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 21 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 13 of 44 | 29% | 41 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 84 of 184 | 45% | 54 of 141 | 6 of 17 | 24 of 26 | 80 of 179 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Vicente Luque | 60 of 155 | 38% | 51 of 141 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 56 of 149 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 14 of 37 | 37% | 8 of 26 | 1 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Vicente Luque | 9 of 33 | 27% | 5 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 15 of 35 | 42% | 5 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 16 of 30 | 53% | 14 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 24 of 46 | 52% | 19 of 39 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Vicente Luque | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 20 of 41 | 48% | 15 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 13 of 44 | 29% | 10 of 41 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 11 of 25 | 44% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 13 of 27 | 48% | 13 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad as an underdog, citing Belal's wrestling and fight IQ. He notes that Vicente Luque is dangerous on the feet and has submissions, but Belal can take him down and control the fight. He references Luque's fight with Kiesa where Kiesa had success taking Luque down but got too aggressive. Angelo believes Belal will stick to a wrestling game plan and win a decision.
Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win, likely by finish. He notes that Luque is dangerous everywhere—on the feet and on the mat—and that Belal Muhammad's wrestling, while improved against Stephen Thompson, may not be enough to control Luque. He points out that Muhammad struggled to take down Diego Lima (1 for 10) and that Luque has solid takedown defense and submission threats. Brady expects Luque to hurt Muhammad and finish him in the second or third round.
Cody picks Luque but with hesitation, noting Belal's impressive wrestling against Wonderboy. He worries about Luque's cardio in a five-round fight and his takedown defense. However, he believes Luque's hand speed and striking will be key, and that Belal's record is deceiving. He sees danger if Belal extends the fight into later rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +155 underdog, emphasizing Belal's ability to adapt game plans, as seen against Stephen Thompson (wrestling) and Demian Maia (striking). He notes Belal's improved lateral movement, feints, and cardio, which should allow him to survive early danger and take over in championship rounds. Levi acknowledges Vicente Luque's elite finishing ability (second most finishes in welterweight history) and the danger of his calf kicks, left hook, and d'arce choke, but believes Belal's discipline, chain wrestling, and refusal to rush submissions will be key. He is concerned about Belal fighting during Ramadan but notes he has done so before and sounded sharp in interviews. Levi states he is biased due to his friendship with Belal but insists his analysis is objective.
Paul favors Vicente Luque, citing his power, finishing ability, and danger in guard if taken down. He notes Luque trains with many wrestlers and believes his striking is superior. He acknowledges Belal's wrestling but thinks Luque's path to victory is clearer, especially with a potential finish.
The MMA Guru picks Belal Muhammad despite being a big Vicente Luque fan. He believes Muhammad's volume and grappling will disrupt Luque's timing, and that Luque hates volume. He expects Muhammad to wear Luque down and submit him in the fourth or fifth round via rear-naked choke. He also accuses Muhammad of using steroids, citing his physique change.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 51 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 58 of 95 | 61% | 171 of 271 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 1 | 0 | 11:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 28 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 44 of 72 | 61% | 64 of 111 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 42 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:11 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 65 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 19 of 32 | 59% | 14 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Stephen Thompson | 58 of 95 | 61% | 56 of 92 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 55 of 84 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 10 of 16 | 62% | 8 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Stephen Thompson | 44 of 72 | 61% | 42 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 41 of 64 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 7 of 11 | 63% | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 10 of 16 | 62% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In this pivotal co-main event, renowned karateka “Wonderboy” Thompson (16-5-1, 11-5-1 UFC) will try to keep his place in the top echelon of the welterweight division. Against him will be Muhammad (19-3, 1 NC; 10-3, 1 NC UFC), who will aim to find the secret of his power. Herb Dean will be the referee for this interesting stylistic clash, and the fighters are happy to touch gloves in a good show of sportsmanship. Thompson is quick to get to his signature style, staying out of range and backing off with kicks to the body and up high. Muhammad eats a hook kick in the face, and he shrugs it off so that he can shoot in for a double. “Wonderboy” stops it from succeeding and stings Muhammad with a left hand, and Muhammad is suddenly in trouble. Thompson spins with a kick that clatters off Muhammad’s dome, and he wears it well and blocks a few strikes that come at him. Thompson jumps forward with a strike, and Muhammad manages to power through and go for a takedown. Grabbing Thompson by his waist as they are both on their seats, they begin to slug it out from close range like a seated version of Frye vs. Takayama. After they continue to trade punches, Thompson walks his way back up using the fence, and he shucks off a standing guillotine try from Muhammad. Tight in the clinch, Thompson rips a few knees up high until Muhammad snags hold of a single to put Thompson down. “Wonderboy” manages to land on a knee so he is not flat down, and he grabs the fence to stand back up. Muhammad grapples him from behind, before turning things around to elevate Thompson and put him down. Muhammad lands on Thompson’s back, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke before flattening Thompson out with strikes. “Remember the Name” rains down punches from this advantageous position, pounding on the side of Thompson’s head while Thompson turtles up. Thompson protects himself from the brunt of the strikes that should not merit a stoppage, and he turns to his side as Muhammad continues to work him over from above. A few punches land to the back of the head, and Muhammad bludgeons Thompson relentlessly until the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to start off the second round, and Thompson is the immediate aggressor with side kicks to the face. Thompson slings a high kick with his rear leg, and the kick is blocked but still knocks Muhammad back a step. “Wonderboy” springs in with a strike and dances out of the way, and he lands cleanly to ring Muhammad’s bell. Thompson tees off on Muhammad until Muhammad has had enough of the striking, and he closes in to latch on to Thompson and wrench him down to the mat. Thompson works his way back up, only for Muhammad to lift him up and hold his ankle to put Thompson back down flat on the canvas. The Chicago native gets into half guard, where he isolates Thompson’s right arm to set up a kimura. When that does not succeed, Muhammad begins to batter Thompson’s thigh with elbows. Thompson pulls his arm free, only for Muhammad to continue elbowing the same spot. Thompson edges his way to the wall, and he posts on his knee to stand up as Muhammad torques on his arm for a straight armlock or kimura. Thompson appears to pay it no mind, but he is still trapped on the floor with no way up as precious seconds tick off the clock. Muhammad abandons the grip so that he can turn around and get off ground-and-pound, introducing his elbow to Thompson’s face repeatedly. Thompson eats several of these shots but blocks others, and Muhammad hacks at him with elbows until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 3
Muhammad instantly starts the round with a takedown try, and “Wonderboy” cannot stave him off with a few strikes as Muhammad advances relentlessly. Muhammad lifts Thompson’s leg all the way up in the air before putting Thompson down on the ground, and he ties Thompson’s legs up to keep him trapped. With his arm around Thompson’s back, he is able to smack Thompson in the face with short left hands. The former title challenger bursts back upright, and he fights off a subsequent takedown try with a choke attempt from above. Muhammad doggedly pursues another takedown, and he secures it in the center of the mat to put Thompson down at the midpoint of the final round. Muhammad claims half guard, and he calmly controls his opponent with light but effective ground-and-pound that keeps Dean away from standing them up. “Remember the Name” remembers that he can embrace the grind like the best of them, and he does exactly that, passing to side control and working Thompson over with elbows and hammerfists. Muhammad looks to pass to mount, but “Wonderboy” is able to at least keep that moral victory in his pocket as he is getting thoroughly outworked on the ground. Muhammad slashes Thompson with multiple elbows until the final horn ends this grueling match.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Stephen Thompson via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad with a full unit at +200. He cites recency bias from Gilbert Burns taking Thompson down at will, and believes Muhammad, a wrestling beast, will employ a grapple-heavy game plan. He thinks Muhammad will win a unanimous decision by taking Thompson down repeatedly. Angelo admits it hurts because he loves Wonderboy, but he sees a clear path for Muhammad.
Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He believes Muhammad's takedown accuracy (28%) is not enough to threaten Thompson's takedown defense and get-up game. He acknowledges the smaller cage favors Muhammad but expects Thompson to stuff takedowns and win a convincing decision.
Cody is confident in Thompson, citing his superior striking and distance management. He notes that Muhammad is a generalist without elite skills, and his wins are against lower-level competition. Cody points to the Leon Edwards fight where Muhammad struggled with a fast, lateral-moving striker. He believes Thompson's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing and that he will win by decision, though he acknowledges Muhammad's durability and the possibility of a KO.
Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +200 underdog. He argues that Stephen Thompson has never won a fight in which he was taken down, citing losses to Woodley, Brown, and Burns. Levi notes that in Thompson's wins over Neal and Luque, those opponents attempted zero takedowns combined. He believes Muhammad's relentless wrestling and pressure will be the key, and that Thompson's age (almost 40) is a factor. Levi expects a gritty, ugly fight where Muhammad grinds out a decision or late stoppage.
Jacob picks Stephen Thompson, expecting a boring decision win. He believes Thompson's footwork and karate style will allow him to bounce in and out, point-fight, and avoid takedowns. Jacob thinks if Thompson is taken down, he will get right back up. He cites Thompson's fight with Darren Till where only 71 strikes were landed combined, expecting a similar low-volume striking match.
The host picks Thompson by decision, believing his striking and movement will keep Muhammad at bay. He notes that Muhammad is athletically capped and will struggle to get inside. He leans towards the decision prop around even money.
Paul likes Thompson as the rightful favorite, emphasizing that nobody outstrikes Thompson on the feet. He notes Muhammad's wrestling is not elite and Thompson's takedown defense has improved. Paul expects Thompson to win by decision, as Muhammad has shown durability but can be wobbled, as seen in the Edwards fight.
The MMA Guru picks Stephen Thompson to win by 30-27 decision. He thinks Thompson's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Muhammad. He notes Muhammad struggles to get takedowns against top-level opponents and Thompson stuffed Burns' takedowns. He expects Thompson to out-strike Muhammad easily, though he jokes Thompson is too nice to finish.
Sean Brady - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 0 | 77 of 180 | 42% | 245 of 416 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 12:09 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 5 of 31 | 16% | 21 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 51 of 89 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:12 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 0 | 18 of 52 | 34% | 90 of 161 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 11 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 104 of 166 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:24 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 77 of 180 | 42% | 76 of 179 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 71 of 165 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 5 of 31 | 16% | 2 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 34 of 68 | 50% | 34 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 59 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 18 of 52 | 34% | 18 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 50 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 4 of 16 | 25% | 2 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 25 of 60 | 41% | 24 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 56 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-170), Buckley (+142)
Round 1
Don’t ask us how Philadelphia’s Brady (18-2, 8-2 UFC) went from a betting favorite around -170 earlier today to an underdog surpassing +200. Someone, possibly including Buckley (21-7, 11-5 UFC) and his team, knows something we don’t. Rumors have swirled that Brady’s knee or nose may be compromised heading into this welterweight contest. Based on these irregularities, the UFC should have erred on the side of caution to shut this fight down. Nevertheless, they persist. Referee Keith Peterson watches as they do not touch gloves, and we do not have a punchline or any nonsense for this one.
Buckley runs out of his corner right after Brady, buzzing past him to find an angle and work his way in. Brady jabs him back, but he already has a bit of marking on his nose. Buckley reaches a left hand over the top and follows with a head kick, and both are blocked. Brady slowly works his way forward before suddenly changing his tempo with a left hand and a clinch attempt. Brady is stuffed, so he backs off and shoots for a double. Buckley shuts him down a second time and offers up a front kick on his own side. Buckley kicks the front leg, which allows Brady to tackle him to the mat and land directly in half guard. Brady postures up to land a few strikes but is much more interested in advancing.
The Pennsylvanian gets into full mount and starts wrapping punches around either side of the guard. Brady rains down punishment, sullying Buckley’s unblemished face by battering it with his fists. Peterson tells Buckley to fight back, so Buckley kicks off the fencing to change positions. Brady thinks about a kimura while on top, gripping Buckley’s right arm and stepping over to side control and north-south. Buckley torques the limb, and he lets it go to not allow Buckley to explode and get away. Buckley bucks, but Brady floats over him to stay in side control landing shots until the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 2
Brady opens up the second round with a head kick and a spinning back fist, and Buckley ducks under them to engage. Brady hoists him to the mat from behind when getting his hands on the kickboxer, hurling Buckley to his back to pick up where he left off in side control. Brady alternates between ground strikes and improving his position, and he climbs into full mount. Brady stays tightly pressed to Buckley when not landing punches. Buckley kicks and bucks to the best of his ability, and he miraculously explodes back to his feet and goes right after Brady. Buckley scores a few punches, and when he is about to drive a knee into the chest, Brady catches it out of the air and takes him back down to suck the wind out of the building.
Brady climbs back into full mount without waiting too long, and he revs up his engine and starts clobbering Buckley with his fists. Brady turns higher amplitude blows into rapid swings more like Donkey Kong hammerfists, but these are not about to finish the fight. He goes back to picking his openings while Buckley is covered up, and he slashes down with elbows to boot. Buckley has no answers, with Brady drumming on him with strong elbows. Brady allows Buckley to punch back so he can hack with more elbows. This continues right to the conclusion of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 3
The last round opens with Buckley pushing the pace and swarming his way forward. This offense works against him as he continues to race after the Pennsylvanian, as Brady times a perfect takedown to put him on his back again. Brady positions himself in half guard to smother his opponent, holding him down with his left hand and slugging him with his right. Brady briefly claims mount, but peels himself back to the half guard so he can maintain control. Brady wraps his left arm around Buckley’s head to constantly threaten with an arm-triangle setup, staying busy with punches when not doing so.
Brady reassumes full mount, slicing through like a hot knife through butter, and his bombardment of ground strikes continues. Brady pushes himself to the side for a brief submission threat, but gets back to mount to club Buckley with a seemingly never-ending stream of punches. Buckley is completely out of ideas, and Brady pushes on and hangs on the cage to remain on top. Brady thumps Buckley with heavier punches, as if he were taking some frustration out on his opponent about the bizarro betting odds situation surrounding the fight. He proudly ruined the opposing bettors' days as he completely, utterly dominated Buckley, remaining on the offense all the way to the final horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Brady (30-25 Brady)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Brady (30-25 Brady)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Brady (30-26 Brady)
The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Joaquin Buckley via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-25, 30-27)
Angelo leans towards Buckley because he saw Buckley throw hands against Usman and not get frozen by takedown threats. He thinks Buckley understands the matchup and will try to knock Brady out. However, he doesn't trust it enough to spend actual money.
Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley, emphasizing his dangerous striking and takedown defense. He notes Buckley defended nine takedowns against Usman and landed more significant strikes despite control time. He thinks Brady's chin is suspect after his last knockout loss. He believes Buckley can scramble and get back to striking. He trusts Buckley to let his hands go and not accept positions.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Joaquin Buckley, reasoning that in a fight that could go either way, he prefers the underdog. He notes Buckley has power and could knock out Brady if he stuffs takedowns. However, he acknowledges Brady could maul Buckley on the ground. Brady predicts Buckley wins by knockout, but with low confidence.
Cody picks Buckley as an underdog, citing his power, takedown defense, and experience against wrestlers like Usman and Covington. He thinks Buckley can stuff takedowns and land a knockout, as Brady's striking and chin are questionable. Cody acknowledges the risk but likes the plus money.
Connor picks Brady but hesitantly, agreeing with Zane. He notes Buckley's predictable timing and movement, but his relentless pressure could break Brady if the fight goes long. Connor thinks Brady's wrestling should win in three rounds, but Buckley's confidence and cardio make it interesting. He prefers it as a five-round fight.
Daniel picks Buckley, arguing that Brady is a great hammer but not a great nail, and has wilted when pressured. He believes Buckley's power and unpredictability will lead to a knockout, and that Buckley's takedown defense is underrated. Daniel thinks the Usman fight was an anomaly due to the bright lights.
Brady has a huge grappling edge; Buckley's takedown defense and ground game are weak (Usman held him down easily). Brady's offensive wrestling is good, but his control can be compromised by short legs. However, if Brady keeps it simple and controls Buckley from top position with ground and pound, he should win comfortably. Striking gap is not massive; Brady can hold his own. The only way Buckley wins is a flash KO or major improvements to his takedown defense, which is unlikely.
Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 3. Buckley has been on a tear, with four straight wins including a KO over Stephen Thompson and a TKO over Colby Covington. His southpaw stance and power (3.88 SLpM, 36% accuracy) pose problems for Brady, who is coming off a KO loss to Michael Morales. Brady's strength is grappling (3.53 takedowns per round), but Buckley has 72% takedown defense and has shown improved wrestling. Buckley's reach advantage (76" vs 72") helps him land from distance. Expect Buckley to stuff takedowns and land a knockout in the later rounds.
Jacob is confident in Sean Brady, arguing that Brady is a better grappler than Usman and that Buckley looked clueless on the ground against Usman. He believes Brady will outgrapple Buckley and possibly finish him. He notes that Buckley is 4-5 in the UFC when he doesn't record a takedown.
Lucrative James picks Sean Brady because he believes Brady's grappling will be the difference, similar to how Kamaru Usman dominated Buckley. He notes Buckley's poor jiu-jitsu off his back and Brady's superior submission skills. He predicts Brady will submit Buckley via arm triangle, though he acknowledges Buckley's athleticism could make it competitive early. He also mentions Brady's recent knee injury but thinks he will perform.
The host picks Brady by submission, believing his grappling will be too much for Buckley. He notes that Buckley's power is not as dangerous as Morales', and Brady should be able to get takedowns and find dominant positions. He expects a dominant performance and a submission win.
Paul also picks Buckley, citing his improvements against high-level wrestlers and Brady's limited striking and durability. He thinks Buckley's power and takedown defense will be key, and that Brady's path to victory is narrow. Paul expects Buckley to win by knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady, citing his high-level grappling and ability to exploit Buckley's wrestling weaknesses. He notes Usman easily held down Buckley, and Brady's takedown timing is excellent. He believes Buckley's forward-jumping style plays into Brady's reactive takedowns. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27.
Zane picks Brady but hesitantly, noting Buckley's unflappability and cardio could cause problems. He points out that Brady's wrestling should dominate, but Brady has psychological limitations and may fall into striking. Zane wishes it were five rounds, as Buckley's pressure could break Brady over time. He sees Brady's path as early takedown control.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 8 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Morales | 1 | 24 of 52 | 46% | 24 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 8 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Morales | 1 | 24 of 52 | 46% | 24 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Morales | 24 of 52 | 46% | 24 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 21 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Morales | 24 of 52 | 46% | 24 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 21 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-142), Morales (+120)
Round 1
Blake Grice is the referee. Brady circles on the outside, probing with leg kicks. Morales flicks out a couple jabs. Morales continues to throw that jab and he’s gradually starting to find the range on it. Brady leaps in with a hook. Brady lands a hard low kick. Moraes rocks Brady with a right hand, and he tees off with a series of impactful punches during an ensuing barrage. Brady looks like he’s on wobby legs, but he’s able to eventually shove Morales off of him for a brief reset. Morales steps in with an uppercut. The long jab remains effective for Morales, who is brimming with confidence. Brady gets clipped with another right hand and Morales pressures forward with heavy punches. Brady is in survival mode so far, and he’s been unable to close distance to impose his grappling. Morales goes back to the jab, then clips Brady with a right hand over the top. Three more punches connect and Brady goes down. Morales drops a few hammerfists before Grice steps in to save a reeling Brady. The Ecuardorian’s undefeated run continues in impressive fashion, and he might have solidified his claim for a future welterweight title shot.
The Official Result
Michael Morales def. Sean Brady via TKO (Punches) R1 3:27
Angelo picks Sean Brady, believing his relentless wrestling and pressure will stifle Michael Morales, who needs space to strike. He notes Brady's takedowns and control are elite, and Morales doesn't wrestle often despite his credentials. He hopes the line tightens and plans to bet on Brady.
Big Brady picks Michael Morales as a slight underdog, struggling with this fight. He acknowledges Sean Brady's elite wrestling and grappling but notes that if Brady can't get takedowns, he is vulnerable to getting knocked out, as seen in the Belal Muhammad fight. Brady believes Morales hits harder than Muhammad and has a size advantage, making him tough to take down early. He predicts Morales will stuff takedowns and knock out Brady in the first round.
Cody picks Morales despite acknowledging Brady's superior grappling. He highlights Morales's size, youth, reach advantage, and improving takedown defense. He notes that Brady's striking defense is poor and that Morales has power and unorthodox striking. Cody believes Morales can either knock Brady out or win a decision by outworking him on the feet.
Connor picks Brady, citing his well-rounded game, strong wrestling, and improved striking composure. He notes that Morales is a raw athlete with no real game plan, relying on physical gifts. However, he flags a major X-factor: Morales has a 79-inch reach, which could cause Brady striking issues he hasn't faced before.
Daniel is torn but leans toward Morales as a slight underdog. He acknowledges Brady's impressive recent form and top control, but notes Morales' freak athleticism, underrated takedown defense, and ability to power out of bad spots. He sees the fight as 50-50 and likes the plus money on Morales.
Lucrative James picks Sean Brady to win, but with low confidence. He believes Morales' athleticism and power will be dangerous early, but Brady's superior grappling and cardio will take over in later rounds. He notes Morales' massive weight cut may affect his gas tank, while Brady has proven he can go five rounds. He expects Brady to survive the early striking exchanges and then dominate on the ground, possibly securing a submission or decision.
Morales' freak athleticism, power, strength, and speed come through. He stops takedowns or works back to his feet, lands bigger shots on the feet, and gets a knockout victory.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Morales is getting better and that Brady's grappling might not work against a bigger, younger opponent. He mentions that Morales's career trajectory is upward and that he looks like a problem for the division. Paul thinks the first exchange will reveal how effective Brady's wrestling is, but he leans towards Morales.
The Guru picks Sean Brady to win, likely by submission or decision. He highlights Brady's superior grappling and physicality, which should overwhelm Morales, who has shown vulnerability to takedowns. Brady's dominant win over Leon Edwards is a key reference. The Guru acknowledges Morales' power but believes Brady's pressure and clinch work will be decisive.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Brady. He emphasizes Brady's rock-solid wrestling and improved striking, and notes that Morales has never faced a high-level wrestler. He acknowledges the reach advantage but believes Brady's strength and experience will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 23 of 35 | 65% | 23 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Sean Brady | 0 | 57 of 93 | 61% | 221 of 295 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 11:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 20 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Sean Brady | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 47 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Brady | 0 | 19 of 22 | 86% | 76 of 95 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:57 | |
| 3 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Brady | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 86 of 113 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:09 | |
| 4 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Brady | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 12 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 23 of 35 | 65% | 10 of 21 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Brady | 57 of 93 | 61% | 44 of 76 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 8 | 19 of 53 | 7 of 7 | 31 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 20 of 29 | 68% | 8 of 16 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 17 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Brady | 19 of 39 | 48% | 10 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 6 | 13 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Brady | 19 of 22 | 86% | 18 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 21 | |
| 3 | Leon Edwards | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Brady | 14 of 21 | 66% | 13 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 12 | |
| 4 | Leon Edwards | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Brady | 5 of 11 | 45% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-162), Edwards (+136)
Round 1
Jason Herzog gets the nod for the evening’s main event. Brady comes out swinging. Edwards with a swif left hand. Brady lands a right hand. Edwards tests the rear high kick. Brady forces the clinch in the middle of the cage. They break and Brady lands a low kick. They crash into the clinch again. Brady can’t do anything with it, but he lands a nice combination at range. Brady lands a left and forces another tie-up. Edwards punches the body in close. They’re back at range and Edwards counters a kick with a right hook. Edwards with a knee in close as Brady clinches. They separate and Brady wades back in with punches. Brady tries a high kick and then closes distance, pushing Edwards into the fence. The fans don’t love it. Brady knees the thighs. Edwards turns Brady into the fence and digs a short shot to the body. They stay in the clinch, with both men landing short shots. Late in the round, Brady is able to dump Edwards on the mat, and he ends the period in half guard.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 2
Edwards is warned before the round regarding eye pokes. Brady explodes out of his corner for a double leg. He was in deep, but Edwards is able to get to his feet. Brady drags him down from the back, then sweeps into top position. Brady takes the back as Edwards tries to initiate a scramble. Brady has both hooks in, and he peppers Edwards with lefts to the head. Brady continues to stay busy landing left hands. He switches to the body triangle. Edwards does a good job protecting his neck, but Brady is finding openings to land offense. Brady mixes in an elbow with his punches. Brady wants to scramble into mount, but Edwards gets half guard. Brady is hunting for a kimura now as he elbows his opponent’s thigh. Edwards is able to free his arm but Brady goes from full mount to back control. Brady continues to maintain dominant positions while Edwards tries to initiate scrambles. It’s complete one-way traffic that round for Brady.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Brady
Round 3
Brady with a kick to the body to open the frame. Brady pressures and lands an uppercut. Edwards catches Brady with a nice counter elbow. Brady is able to initiate the clinch moments later. Edwards frees himself and shoots for a takedown of his own. Brady sprawls and snaps Edwards down with a front headlock. Brady thinks about a guillotine but lets it go. He steps into full mount at the 3:30 mark. Edwards is doing his best to hold the American close. Edwards looks to scramble, but Brady unloads some heavy shots. Edwards gets to all fours and then stands. Brady powers him back down and moves into half guard. Brady is heavy on top and he might be trying to set up an arm triangle. Edwards is still moving, but he can’t shake Brady. Edwards crawls toward the fence and Brady jumps on his back. Brady has the hooks in and he peppers Edwards with short shots. Edwards is having a miserable time here, but these strikes likely won’t finish the fight. Brady pulls Edwards back, but the Brit is able to control the hands of his opponent until time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 4
Brady moves forward behind a couple low kicks, then pressures with power punches. Edwards is on his heels, and Brady changes levels against the fence. He gets the former champ down with relative ease, and this is with more than four minutes to go in the frame. Brady is working from half guard, applying heavy pressure from top position. Brady is hunting a guillotine.
He has it locked in this time, and the squeeze tightens. Edwards has no choice but to tap
and the crowd at the O2 Arena is stunned. It’s a major feather in the cap for Brady, and he did it in dominant fashion.
The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Leon Edwards via Submission (Guillotine Choke) R4 1:39
Angelo picks Sean Brady, reasoning that Leon Edwards often fights passively and freezes when threatened with takedowns. He believes if Brady fights like Belal Muhammad—moving forward, throwing strikes, and shooting takedowns—he will win. He acknowledges Leon is the better fighter skill-wise but doubts he will pull the trigger. He is not betting the fight because Leon is too good to bet against.
Brady is torn but picks Edwards, citing that Brady is not Belal Muhammad and lacks his cardio and wrestling. He thinks Edwards is the better striker and may get hometown cooking in a close fight. He predicts a very close decision win for Edwards, but says he won't bet it.
Connor picks Brady, emphasizing that if Brady sticks to the Belal Muhammad blueprint—constant pressure and wrestling—he can neutralize Edwards. He acknowledges Edwards' danger but believes Brady's physicality and simple game plan can overcome Edwards' tendency to fade. However, he worries Brady might get psyched out and crumble.
The host believes Edwards has shown good takedown defense in the past and, given Brady's wrestling style compared to Belal Muhammad, Edwards should survive the early takedown onslaught. He expects Edwards to start stopping takedowns in the later rounds and showcase his striking advantage, leading to a late knockout or decision win.
The Guru confidently picks Leon Edwards, questioning why he is an underdog. He believes Edwards is a better striker and will control the distance, while Brady's takedowns will be stuffed or reversed. He notes that Brady struggled against Belal Muhammad and Michael Chiesa, and that Edwards has good reversals and butterfly guard. He expects a dull 49-46 or 48-47 decision win for Edwards.
Zane picks Edwards despite acknowledging Brady's path to victory via pressure and wrestling. He believes Edwards' psychological resilience and ability to find moments of danger will be decisive, while Brady tends to crumble when his game plan fails. Zane notes Edwards' fatal flaws but trusts his championship experience over Brady's tendency to implode.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 0 | 47 of 97 | 48% | 76 of 126 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 130 of 217 | 59% | 274 of 368 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 10:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 58 of 79 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 0 | 8 of 20 | 40% | 12 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 33 of 54 | 61% | 59 of 81 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 29 of 39 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 77 of 97 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 | |
| 4 | Sean Brady | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 24 of 34 | 70% | 44 of 54 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 | |
| 5 | Sean Brady | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 18 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 31 of 49 | 63% | 36 of 57 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 47 of 97 | 48% | 25 of 72 | 19 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 32 of 80 | 15 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 130 of 217 | 59% | 97 of 179 | 12 of 16 | 21 of 22 | 118 of 202 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 6 of 14 | 42% | 2 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 23 of 42 | 54% | 17 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 8 of 20 | 40% | 5 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 33 of 54 | 61% | 24 of 43 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 50 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 17 of 27 | 62% | 9 of 19 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 19 of 38 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 32 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Sean Brady | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 24 of 34 | 70% | 17 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 24 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Sean Brady | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 31 of 49 | 63% | 23 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-185), Burns (+154)
Round 1
With the welterweight title picture in flux thanks to a glut of contenders, the winner of this main event might need to get one more victory after tonight to get a crack at gold. Nevertheless, it is a big one at 170 pounds as former title challenger Burns (22-7, 15-7 UFC) looks to show that age is nothing but a number at 38 years young when he throws down with much younger grappler Brady (16-1, 6-1 UFC). This bout could take place anywhere, and it likely will go everywhere before it is all settled. Referee Herb Dean will hand the particulars for the headliner, and he brings the fighters together to respectfully touch gloves. It’s on with the show. Brady strikes first in the form of an inside low kick. Burns jumps forward with a knee that does not come up, and he backs off as Brady slaps him with another leg kick. Brady attacks the same spot with his kick once more, and he punches his way into a combination of fists that makes Burns smile at him. Burns lunges with a left hook, and Brady backs him off with a handful of punches. Brady scoops an uppercut through the guard, and he interrupts an advancing Burns with a straight left. Burns lets loose a few hooks, and Brady is wise to them and counters the Brazilian with a quicker combo. Burns times a punch to shoot in for a double, and he deposits the Philadelphia native to his seat. Brady climbs back to his feet thanks to the wall behind him, and they trade knees in the clinch as Brady walks Burns from one side of the cage to the other. Brady uppercuts on the break, and he races forward landing a series of punches that Burns largely blocks. Brady considers changing levels, but the Brazilian stops it from going anywhere. Brady gets in a short uppercut, and they trade knees on the inside in a clinch. Burns spins him about and looks for a single, allowing Brady to knee him in the face. Brady trips Burns up, and Burns topples to his knee, jumps back up and lashes out with an elbow that is inches away from his intended target. Brady reaches with longer punches than Burns is throwing, and he backs Burns up with a chain of strikes and pushes him to the chain links. Brady lifts Burns up and sets him on the mat, and Burns is quick to wall-walk to get upright. Brady hangs on from the side, tripping Burns up but not grounding him with a mat return effort. Burns spins out with seconds to spare, kneeing Brady once before the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 2
Burns absorbs a clean body kick to start the round, and he responds with an overhand right that sends Brady flying into the wall. Burns leaps after him, but is grabbed and spun around in the clinch. Brady drops down for a double, and his first try lifts Burns up but does not put him on his back. Brady knees the Brazilian in the thigh a few times until Burns turns him about, and they break up. Brady gets off a trio of one-twos, and Burns walks through them and pushes out his own jab. Brady lands three punches in rapid succession, and he takes another hard right hand as Burns surges into action. After taking another powerful punch on the chin, Brady gets hold of the clinch. Burns wraps a right hand over the guard on the break, and he winds up with two more power hooks that Brady ducks and tries to counter with wrestling. Burns spins him to the fence, but he lets go so he can punch Brady in the face. Brady hits a takedown, and Burns scrambles, spins him around and dumps Brady to a knee. Burns grabs Brady from behind as Brady leans against the wall, and Brady fights out of the grip and uses a jab. Brady lands a jab and a low kick, and he lands another leg kick on the inside. Brady swarms forward with punches, clubbing Burns on the side of the head around the guard. Brady rifles off three quick punches, and he ducks a right hand to double up on a jab. Burns loads up on his power hook, and Brady is more accurate and far more active. They shadowbox until the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 3
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Brady’s jabs are the first blows to lead off the round. Burns responds with a low kick and a body kick, and he dings Brady on the nose with a right hand. Brady chains several punches together in response until Burns ties him up. Burns is spun around and eats several body shots, and he gives one back before Brady goes after a single. Burns pulls his leg out and puts his guard up to defend the attack from Brady. Brady goes for a takedown, and Burns spins him around and throws him to his knees. Burns lets fly a pair of huge hooks, and Brady thanks his lucky stars he did not absorb them flush. Brady splits the guard with an uppercut, and he walks face-first into a right hand that stuns him. Brady still has the wherewithal to power forward into the clinch, and he considers a level change until Burns spins him about and attacks a single. Brady hops back to remain on his feet, and they split apart after some dirty boxing. Brady charges forward to go after a single, and Burns pushes on the back of Brady’s neck to stifle it. Burns gets a bit of space and throws punches, but it is an elbow on the inside when Brady comes towards him that does some damage. Burns lays into Brady’s body with knees, and Brady backs away. Burns slips a jab and counters with a right hand, and he turns to his side when Burns takes him down. Burns tags him with an overhand right on the standup, and Brady explodes through to scoop the Brazilian up with a double and loudly dumps Burns to the floor. Burns pushes off and defends himself until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 4
The two reach the championship rounds, and they share a fist bump to kick off the fourth frame. Brady paws out a few jabs, and he offers out a leg kick that bumps into Burns’ cup. Dean calls time, and Burns walks away to lean on the fence and recover. Burns takes a minute to get his wind back, and the two share another fist bump. Burns whips a kick to the body as Brady comes at him, and this time Burns has kicked Brady in the groin. As Dean calls time again, Brady falls to his knees in pain, and he takes a little bit and winks at the camera. Brady paces back and forth until another minute elapses, and Dean tells them to please keep it clean. On the next restart, Brady kicks the lead leg on the outside and then twice on the inside. Burns kicks the front leg once, and Brady fires right back. Brady releases a solid body kick, and he plants his left hand on Burns’ chin when setting down. Brady drives a few jabs through the guard, and Burns clubs him behind the ear and makes him stumble. Burns ducks a jab to respond with another heavy right hand, and Brady knows it is coming and still has to shake it off. Brady rushes at him with six punches in a row, resulting in a clinch. As Brady keeps Burns against the fence, he holds his fingers in the links, and he is warned for it. Burns gets a little space and knees Brady in the face and releases a right hand on the side of the dome. They break apart to reset, and Brady punches his way into a single that lands and puts Burns on his seat. Burns defends with a guillotine choke and uses it to work his way to his feet, only for Brady to sling him down with a mat return. Burns responds with a leglock, and Brady scrambles enough but gives up his back. Burns rolls through and keeps hold of Brady’s back in a grappling exchange, and they stand up with Burns behind him. Burns lifts Brady up and slams him down, and Brady climbs back up after landing on his face. Burns cannot get the takedown again before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 5
The two touch gloves to start off the last round, and even though Brady might be ahead in terms of raw numbers, it might still be anyone’s fight. Brady adds to his totals when it commences with a stream of punches, and Burns ducks away and has his front leg kicked. Burns wings a right hand over the top, and Brady pecks at him from a safer distance with jabs and leg kicks. Burns winds up with a right hand that gets Brady’s attention, and Brady steels himself to throw hands and rushes into a legal knee where the foot lifts and bounces into the cup. Dean calls time and checks the replay to make sure it struck Brady’s groin, and Brady takes 50 seconds before resuming. They get back to it with a brief firefight, throwing hard at one another. Brady doubles up on leg kicks, and he also sticks out a double jab and a right hand. Burns slams his low kick home, and he leaps at Brady and cracks him in the chin with his knee. A shocked Brady turns him around and goes after the single, but Burns is a stone wall. Burns pushes Brady back and wings a right hand that brushes past the hair. Brady shoots for a high single and lifts Burns up to dump him to the floor. Brady peels precious time off the clock as he maintains ground control, until Burns threatens with an omoplata that he uses to turn himself around and work his way to his feet. Brady trips Burns out and slams him to the floor like a sack of potatoes, landing in half guard for a moment before Burns pushes off his chest. Burns turns to grab hold of a leglock, and Brady smartly turns through it and lowers himself back down to not let Burns get any extension on it. Burns works to his feet only to get muscled down to the mat, and when time expires, Brady collapses to the floor in exhaustion. This brings to a close an intriguing back-and-forth battle that answered a slew of questions for the resurgent Brady, including how he can perform in a five-rounder. While the top of welterweight is a mess, the Brady victory likely puts on the shortlist of top contenders. Brady knows that a title fight may not be the immediate next challenge for him, so he calls for anyone in the top five or the unbeaten Ian Garry—the latter Brady says could work because they share the same management. If that matchup comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady (48-47 Brady)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady (50-45 Brady)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady (50-45 Brady)
The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
Angelo picks Sean Brady because he is bigger, has good takedowns and Jiu-Jitsu, and is coming off a dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He questions how Gilbert Burns can win, noting Burns' small size, 50% takedown defense, and 38% takedown accuracy. He believes Brady's new-generation black belt will be too much for Burns, though he acknowledges Burns could control on top if he gets takedowns.
Big Brady picks Sean Brady to win by decision but admits he doesn't have a ton of confidence. He notes Burns is 38 and talking retirement, while Brady is 31 and improving. Brady thinks Brady's wrestling could win minutes and he might hurt Burns, but acknowledges Burns' phenomenal grappling and underrated striking. He expects a decision.
Cody picks Michael Morales, noting that Morales is 25, undefeated, and improving each fight. He expects Morales to take over as the fight goes into later rounds due to his youth and cardio advantage. Cody also mentions the reach advantage and judo background of Morales, and suggests live betting or over totals rather than laying -800.
Cody argues that Burns is the better striker with proven five-round experience, while Brady has poor cardio and striking volume. He notes Brady gassed against Belal Muhammad and relies solely on takedowns, which Burns' 80% takedown defense can neutralize. Despite concerns about Burns' age and coaching distractions, he sees value at +150 and picks Burns as a dog, but admits it's a rollercoaster and not a high-confidence play.
Daniel believes Brady is catching Burns at the perfect time, as Burns is 38 and coming off two losses (to Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena). He notes Brady's improved mindset after losing his undefeated record, and his strong performance against Kelvin Gastelum, where he showed heart and cardio. Daniel thinks Brady's physical strength and short, stocky frame will make him hard to submit, and that Brady can tire Burns out and potentially have success on the feet.
Brady is younger and should dictate the pace with wrestling and clinch work. Burns is 38 and on a two-fight losing streak, often gassing in later rounds. Brady can wear Burns down and finish in the third or fourth round. The only hesitation is that it's Brady's first five-round fight, but he is still favored.
Paul acknowledges Burns' cardio issues and recent decline, noting he gassed against Jack Della Maddalena and seems to have lost his grappling edge. He sees Brady's path via takedowns and control, especially in a five-round fight where Burns' cardio is a bigger liability. However, he is hesitant because he has never been a Sean Brady fan and dislikes the -175 price. He ultimately picks Brady but with low confidence, calling it a 'gun to my head' pick.
Paul picks Gilbert Burns as a dog, taking a small poke on Burns by submission at +1800. He acknowledges Burns is likely washed but sees value in the prop given Burns' submission history and the possibility of catching Morales. Paul admits he doesn't expect to win but likes the long odds.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady over Gilbert Burns. He cites the age difference (Burns is 38) and notes Brady has improved massively. He mentions Brady's wins over Kelvin Gastelum and Jake Matthews, and that he neutralized Craig Jones in grappling. He criticizes Burns' recent performance against JDM, arguing Burns didn't do enough. He believes Brady's size and strength will allow him to stall on the ground and win a slow-paced decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 97 of 130 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 9:06 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 38 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 16 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 51 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 14 of 24 | 58% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 18 of 32 | 56% | 7 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 13 of 21 | 61% | 6 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 4 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 8 of 11 | 72% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-130), Gastelum (+110)
Round 1
Welterweights get the call, as Brady (15-1, 5-1 UFC) looks to rebound from his first career loss in a three-round showdown with Gastelum at 170 pounds. Gastelum (18-8, 12-8 UFC) has lost five of his past seven bouts and remains one of the most enigmatic fighters on the roster.
For more on the Kings MMA rep, see “5 Defining Moments: Kelvin Gastelum” in Features
. Montalvo draws the officiating assignment. Gastelum immediately moves to the center of the cage. Brady clinches, works punches and knees to the body and eats a short elbow. He pushes Gastelum to the fence and completes his first takedown. The Daniel Gracie disciple floats to the back, threads his hooks and goes to work on the next. Brady bites down with a body triangle just 90 seconds into the bout. Gastelum scrambles free, takes top position and feeds his opponent punches. Back on the feet, they return to the center of the Octagon. Gastelum sneaks in a right hand. Brady connects with two left hooks and then powers into top position, moving to the back. Gastelum inches toward the fence, but Brady is relentless. Gastelum gets back to his feet, only to get returned to the mat. Brady works his ground-and-pound from behind, then moves to the back in the waning seconds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 2
Gastelum steps forward in his southpaw stance, fires a few inside leg kicks and fails to manage distance properly. Brady ducks in for another takedown and sets up in half guard. Starting to look like an awful stylistic matchup for Gastelum. Brady climbs to full mount, then back to half guard. He mounts again. Gastelum surrenders his back to create a scramble but finds no escape. Brady shifts back to mount. Probably only a matter of time before Gastelum breaks. Brady hammers away with elbows, floats to the back and shows no regard for his counterpart’s ground game. Fans grow restless, but Brady is running circles around Gastelum here. Brady works from a kneeling mount, with a seated Gastelum underneath him. With 30 seconds left, this has turned into an absolute rout. Brady drags him back to the canvas as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 3
Brady works from the center of the cage. Gastelum sneaks in a straight left, but Brady closes the distance yet again and completes another takedown. Fans boo. Brady sets up in half guard, then floats to mount and frames an arm-triangle. Gastelum escapes.
Brady now isolates the right arm and threatens a kimura. He cranks on the shoulder and forces the tap. This one was never competitive
.
The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Kelvin Gastelum—Submission (Kimura) 1:43 R3
Big Brady picks Sean Brady to get back on track, believing his wrestling and control will be the difference. He thinks Brady can take down and control Gastelum for at least two rounds, winning a decision. He acknowledges Gastelum has the edge on the feet but thinks Brady can hold his own. He calls it a close fight and wouldn't bet on either side.
Cody picks Brady, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and wrestling. He notes Gastelum's poor takedown defense and offensive wrestling (0 for 11 in last two fights). He thinks Brady can take Gastelum down and control him on the ground. He also questions Gastelum's speed at welterweight and his ability to handle Brady's grappling.
Lucrative James leans towards Kelvin Gastelum after rewatching tape. He notes that Sean Brady has shown poor striking defense and cardio issues in fights against Belal Muhammad and Michael Chiesa. Gastelum is a good boxer and could hurt Brady. However, he remains cautious about Gastelum's weight cut and how he will look at 170.
Gastelum is moving back to welterweight, where he has looked best, and has shown improved conditioning and training at Fight Ready. He has slick boxing, power, and underrated grappling. Brady is a strong wrestler with a BJJ black belt, but he struggled against Belal Muhammad's range and volume. Gastelum's speed and power on the feet, plus his ability to scramble, should give him the edge. A decision win is predicted, with a potential late finish.
Paul is willing to side with Gastelum at welterweight, citing his striking advantage and improved physique. He will wait for weigh-ins to ensure Gastelum makes weight and looks healthy. He thinks Gastelum has a massive striking advantage and that this is a good spot to jump back on the Gastelum train.
The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, criticizing Sean Brady's performance against Belal Muhammad where he shut down after being clipped. He believes Gastelum's boxing, durability, and finishing ability are superior on the feet. He predicts Gastelum wins by TKO in the second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 80 of 209 | 38% | 80 of 209 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Brady | 0 | 58 of 118 | 49% | 58 of 118 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 26 of 80 | 32% | 26 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Brady | 0 | 25 of 62 | 40% | 25 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 54 of 129 | 41% | 54 of 129 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Brady | 0 | 33 of 56 | 58% | 33 of 56 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 80 of 209 | 38% | 64 of 183 | 11 of 19 | 5 of 7 | 79 of 206 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Brady | 58 of 118 | 49% | 40 of 98 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 14 | 57 of 117 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 26 of 80 | 32% | 18 of 66 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 26 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Brady | 25 of 62 | 40% | 15 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 54 of 129 | 41% | 46 of 117 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 53 of 126 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Brady | 33 of 56 | 58% | 25 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 32 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-145), Muhammad (+125)
Round 1
Headlining the prelims is a welterweight matchup that could easily and comfortably headliner any UFC Fight Night or ESPN-run event. For a possible shot at the logjammed welterweight throne, Muhammad (21-3, 1 NC; 12-3, 1 NC UFC) and his eight-fight unbeaten streak run up against Brady (15-0, 5-0 UFC), who has never dropped a pro fight. Someone will take a rough loss, barring something unexpected, and referee Lukasz Bosacki will be there for it. The 170ers have a strange bit of bad blood between them and decide not to touch ‘em up, and instead Muhammad comes out aggressively to push the pace on the undefeated fighter. Muhammad scores a left hand down the pipe, and Brady looks to swipe back at him and only lands a calf kick. Muhammad keeps moving forward and clips Brady with a right hand, and he retreats as Brady races forward. Brady works the lead leg with kicks, and he walks into a knee and forces Muhammad to fall over. When Muhammad stands, Brady gives him a shove to put him back to his seat but does not follow him down. Brady allows him to stand so that he can bust him in the chops with a right hand, and he gets a few punches off that get Muhammad’s attention. Muhammad keeps coming forward as he lines up a head kick, and Brady backs him away with a high body kick. Muhammad kicks the leg, and Brady changes levels in pursuit of a takedown but it is nowhere close to materializing. Brady backs off and whips a high kick up fast, and when it is guarded, he follows it with a clean right hand over the top. Muhammad pins a one-two on the chin, and Brady counters him to make him take a step back. Brady gets tagged with a short combination, and he blocks a head kick that follows. Muhammad gets out a left hand and the two start trading, with Brady landing flush and Muhammad giving it right back to him. Muhammad connects with a heavy right hand that draws some swelling under Brady’s right eye, and Brady shoots in from a distance and does not draw out a reaction. Muhammad walks him down and starts throwing hands, and Brady replies with a left hand that opens a cut on the side of Muhammad’s right eye. The horn sounds awkwardly, and the razor-close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 2
The pace from Muhammad does not relent as the second round begins, continuously pressing forward as Brady sits down on counters. The welterweight contenders trade low kicks, and Brady shoots and is stopped in his tracks. Brady gets off a sharp left hook that splits the guard, and he smacks Muhammad in the nose with a front kick. Brady gets off another left hook as Muhammad is walking him down, and he kicks the body to give Muhammad momentary pause. Muhammad sticks out a jab that reddens the nose, and Brady lines up a one-two that shakes Muhammad up. Muhammad keeps his fists in Brady’s face, and the nose starts to leak from the offense. Brady jumps forward, mixing punches with kicks, and Muhammad stands firm in front of him and responds with a blocked head kick. Brady leaps forward with a powerful left hook, and he celebrates his work with a low single that gets stuffed by “Remember the Name.” Muhammad lands two punches as Brady prepares and connects with a counter, and he gets rocked with a short left hand. Muhammad blinks it out and fires back with a venomous right hand, and he uses several jabs to back Brady up. A Brady entry is tossed aside, and they trade jabs as Muhammad begins to unload on his punches. They kick at the same time, and Muhammad falls to the mat and jumps back up. A shovel uppercut from the Philadelphia native gets through, and he tries to get off a combination but has his bell rung by Muhammad. Muhammad pours it on with combinations, and he hurts Brady and puts him on the proverbial ropes. Muhammad continues his bombardment of unanswered punches as he batters Brady on the wall, and Brady is in big trouble and leans over from taking punishment. Muhammad stays right in his face, pounding on him with an assault of fiery fists. Brady tries to keep Muhammad honest with a heavy counter or two, but Muhammad will not relent as he drills Brady in the face again and again. The seemingly unending barrage of blows continues until Movahedi dives in to call it a standing TKO, and Brady immediately protests although he was in a bad, bad way. “Remember the Name” makes the crowd remember his name as he moves his unbeaten streak to nine, while handing Brady his first defeat as a professional. Muhammad declares that he fought down to face Brady, and that it is time to fight up – calling out champion Leon Edwards or Khamzat Chimaev for future opportunities.
The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Sean Brady R2 4:47 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad despite admitting it goes against his gut. He believes Belal's constant pressure and wrestling volume will be the difference, as Sean Brady has cardio issues and tends to slow down. He compares it to the Maximov vs Malkoun fight, where constant shooting won the day.
Big Brady picks the underdog Belal Muhammad to win by decision. He questions Brady's takedown defense (87% but untested) and notes Brady slowed down in the Chiesa and McGee fights. Muhammad has superior cardio, volume, and takedown defense (91%). He expects Muhammad to have success in the striking as the fight goes on and win a decision.
Cody picks Belal as an underdog, citing his relentless pace, excellent cardio, and underrated wrestling. He notes Belal's takedowns against top competition and his solid chin. Cody thinks Brady's striking is better but Belal can grind him down. He also mentions the Abu Dhabi factor and Khabib's help.
Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad to win, calling it 'first L time' for Sean Brady. He praises Belal's fight IQ, cardio, and ability to adapt, noting he stuffed 20 takedowns against Damian Maia and overcame adversity against Vicente Luque. Levi thinks Belal's preparation with Khabib Nurmagomedov will help him deal with Brady's top control. He believes Belal will pull away in the second and third rounds. Levi bet 2 units at +116.
Brady is very difficult to take down, with only one takedown allowed in four UFC fights. He transitions well from takedown attempts to back control, as seen against Chiesa. Muhammad's wrestling-heavy style may not work, and Brady's power striking could land. Brady by decision at +150 is a solid play.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Belal's smart game plan and ability to stick to it. He mentions Belal's grappling success against Vicente Luque and that Brady hasn't been tested against top competition. Paul likes the plus money and picks Belal.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady over Belal Muhammad, despite Brady being a favorite. He believes Brady's grappling threat will stifle Belal's stand-up, similar to the Damian Maia fight. He notes Brady's improvements, including a grappling match with Craig Jones, and predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Brady winning the first two rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 0 | 29 of 57 | 50% | 71 of 107 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 51 of 80 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 7:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 0 | 4 of 14 | 28% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 19 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 38 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 14 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 29 of 57 | 50% | 19 of 44 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 42 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 9 |
| Michael Chiesa | 18 of 42 | 42% | 8 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 4 of 14 | 28% | 2 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chiesa | 10 of 19 | 52% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chiesa | 5 of 18 | 27% | 2 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 17 of 25 | 68% | 10 of 15 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 9 |
| Michael Chiesa | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
An important welterweight contest is now on deck, as TUF 15 winner Chiesa (18-5, 11-5 UFC) will look to hold the line and keep his spot in the top 10 against undefeated Philadelphia native Brady (14-0, 4-0 UFC). When the dust settles, a new contender at the logjammed 170-pound division could emerge. Referee Herb Dean’s got this one, and the fighters have nothing but respect for one another as they clap hands to start off. Brady leads the dance with a low calf kick, and Chiesa keeps his range as he leans forward with jabs. Both men shadowbox in front of the other, and Brady lets go with a right hand only to get swiped in the eye with a finger. Dean lets him recover and even brings in the doctor, and Brady clears it out enough to continue. They trade punches, with Chiesa keeping himself at a safe firing distance with his hands outstretched. Chiesa grabs Brady’s left hand with his own right, and lunges a left hand to smack Brady in the face. In another exchange, Chiesa’s left hand opens and his finger jabs into Brady’s eye. The swipe of the finger opens a cut on Brady’s face as well, and once more the doctor is invited into the proceedings. Chiesa gets sternly warned by Dean, and after a minute elapses, they get back to it again. Less than 90 seconds into the match, and two fight-impacting fouls have occurred. Brady powers forward, and Chiesa tries to back him off with jabs. Chiesa stays on his bike until he lets loose a body kick, and Brady catches it and tries to take Chiesa down. In the redoubled effort, Brady successfully grounds Chiesa, although “Maverick” jets back up to his feet as they start to have a conversation. They both share a laugh, and then Brady takes him down. Blood from Brady’s nose is leaking all over Chiesa’s back, but he does not notice as he instead looks to take Chiesa’s back. Chiesa powers his way back upright again, and he breaks the grip so that he can free himself and take the center of the cage. Chiesa walks through a body kick to lance Brady with a one-two, and Brady gathers himself to punch up top and kick down low. Chiesa looks to wing a right hand around the guard, and Brady’s glove is up in time. This close round ends as the two welterweights try to measure one another some more.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 2
They again touch gloves to commence the frame, and Chiesa begins the round with a few jabs. Brady looks to close in on him, and he tries to get past Chiesa’s reaching arms so that he can land flush. Chiesa pays him back for a heavy punch with a combination of his own. Brady comes back with a single strike, and then scores a slapping leg kick. They crash together to land flush on one another, and Chiesa needs to rest and circle away as he appears to have gotten the worse of the exchange. When he stands firm, he nails Brady with a left hand, and then catches an advancing Brady with a clean right hand. Brady runs forward into a single-leg takedown try, and Chiesa uses the wall to keep his footing about him. Chiesa puts a hand on the canvas to push off, and he tilts his shoulders to use his height as an advantage to frame Brady off of him and stop the attempt. Chiesa knees his foe in the chest a few times, but Brady is relentless as he latches on to a takedown and puts Chiesa on his seat. As Chiesa gets to a knee, Brady takes his back and snakes a hook around his waist. Chiesa appears irritated that he let this happen, and Brady gets the other hook in as he follows a twisting Chiesa wherever he travels. Although he cannot set up a choke, Brady secures the body triangle and locks it up tight. Brady sneaks an arm under the chin, but Chiesa sees it coming and stops it from succeeding. From this precarious position, Chiesa explodes out only to get dragged back down. Chiesa groans as he cannot get free before the round ends, upset with himself for getting outgrappled in this fashion.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 3
They hug it out to start off the last round, and Chiesa paws out jab after jab to start things off. The jabs turn into open-handed reaches, and he suddenly jumps in the air to pound his knee in Brady’s chin. Brady grabs him after he lands to turn him into the wall, but he does not hold him there for long. Chiesa is fired up, and he starts laying into Brady with powerful punches. Brady gets rocked and is wobbled after taking a long salvo of punches from “Maverick,” and he saves himself with a desperation takedown. Although the first attempt does not succeed, try, try again he does, and he manages to put Chiesa down. Like the last round, Brady easily circles around to take Chiesa’s back, and he gets the hooks in to secure the controlling posture. Chiesa frantically tries high-risk maneuvers like kicking himself high off the fence to get free, but there is nothing doing. Chiesa again grunts when Brady sets up and tightens the body triangle, wearing his emotions on his sleeve as Brady holds on to him. There is no choke to be found as Chiesa comfortably fights the hands, but the control time is firmly on the side of the unbeaten Pennsylvanian. Chiesa turns to break the body lock, and he succeeds in doing so to stand up. Chiesa hammers Brady with punches, but as soon as he drills Brady in the chest with a knee, Brady grabs it and slows him down. When Brady tries to take him down, Chiesa reverses him and puts Brady on the ground hard. Doing everything he can to finish the fight, Chiesa unleashes a storm of ground-and-pound, furiously pursuing a stoppage while Brady holds on for dear life. The final bell comes before the finish can materialize, and a disappointed Chiesa lets go and limps away when the fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady (30-27 Brady)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Brady (30-27 Brady)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady (30-27 Brady)
The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Michael Chiesa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Sean Brady, citing his athleticism, power, and 100% takedown defense. He notes Chiesa is one-dimensional and has cardio issues, while Brady is more willing to strike and has clean doubles. He does not bet the moneyline but likes a prop: Michael Chiesa +3.5 rounds (win at least one round) at -150, as he expects Chiesa to win the third round due to Brady's potential fatigue.
Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa as an underdog at +140. He cites Chiesa's experience against top competition and his wrestling advantage. He notes that Sean Brady has not faced a wrestler of Chiesa's caliber and that Chiesa has controlled elite fighters like RDA and Neil Magny. He believes the striking is close but gives the wrestling edge to Chiesa, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Brady is coming off an injury.
Cody is picking Brady but with low confidence due to the price tag. He notes that Brady is undefeated but has faced lower-level competition, while Chiesa is a step up. He highlights Brady's well-rounded skills: good striking, BJJ black belt, and excellent top game. He believes Brady can sprawl and out-strike Chiesa, and may even catch a guillotine if Chiesa gets reckless. However, he acknowledges Chiesa's size and durability, and that Chiesa has only lost to top grapplers like Kevin Lee, Anthony Pettis, and Vicente Luque.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Sean Brady to submit Michael Chiesa. He argues that Brady is extremely skilled, physically strong, and a black belt in jiu-jitsu with 100% takedown defense in the UFC. He criticizes Chiesa for having only a Plan A and mentally checking out when his grappling fails. Levi believes that if Chiesa gets his takedowns stuffed, he will panic, and Brady will capitalize with a submission.
Lock likes Brady but has concerns about his lack of footage off his back. He thinks Brady's wrestling is strong enough to counteract Chiesa's, and that Brady has a striking advantage with leg kicks. He notes Chiesa has mental lapses and a desk job that might distract him. Lock predicts Brady by decision at +275.
Paul is also picking Brady but is nervous about laying -160. He points out that Chiesa was a favorite just one fight ago against Vicente Luque, and that loss was a first-round submission that doesn't fully reflect the competitiveness. He notes Chiesa's size and ruggedness, but also his low striking output and lack of ground-and-pound. Paul thinks Brady's superior striking and grappling will eventually figure Chiesa out, but he's not confident enough to recommend a bet at the current price.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa as an underdog over Sean Brady. He argues that Brady has had close fights with Court McGee and Jake Matthews, and lacks KO power. He highlights Chiesa's size, reach advantage, and improvements on the feet. He expects a slow first round, then Chiesa to grind Brady against the cage, take him down, and finish with a rear-naked choke in the second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 0 | 37 of 68 | 54% | 133 of 187 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 8:08 |
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 21 of 84 | 25% | 32 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 34 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:40 |
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 45 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 0 | 17 of 23 | 73% | 54 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:55 |
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 4 of 32 | 12% | 5 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 37 of 68 | 54% | 23 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 15 | 21 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 19 |
| Jake Matthews | 21 of 84 | 25% | 17 of 76 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 12 of 21 | 57% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Matthews | 8 of 26 | 30% | 6 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 8 of 24 | 33% | 6 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Jake Matthews | 9 of 26 | 34% | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 17 of 23 | 73% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 12 |
| Jake Matthews | 4 of 32 | 12% | 3 of 28 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The early prelims roll on with a welterweight clash pitting two men seeking a statement win to vie for a ranked spot, as the unbeaten Brady (13-0, 3-0 UFC) looks to stay flawless against deceptively longtime vet “The Celtic Kid” Matthews (17-4, 10-4 UFC). The Octagon overseer is referee Chris Tognoni, and there is a respectful touch of gloves between the two to begin their match. Brady commences his attack with a leg kick as Matthews advances towards him, and “The Celtic Kid” swings and misses with a one-two. Brady fires off another leg kick, and it glances off the thigh as Matthews partially dodges it and one that follows. Matthews sits down on a left hand and gets Brady’s attention, but Brady stings him back with a short left hook. Brady keeps chipping at the lead leg, and he backs away from a looping right hand that blazes past his head. Matthews sticks out the jab and digs a right hand to the body, and Brady ignores it and claps off another leg kick. Matthews pushes forward but is rebuffed on his way in, and Brady lands a few punches only to get countered with a check left hook. Brady gets off a jab but his body gets tagged as he tries to circle away. Matthews works a right hand that Brady barely rolls with, and the American rushes in to swings punches. Brady throws a body kick, and Matthews absorbs it and drops Brady with a right hand. In the ensuing scramble, Brady climbs on top but winds up in an unorthodox guillotine choke position. Brady is in side control but his neck is trapped, and he yanks it free to start attacking from on top. While he maintains top position, he starts bleeding down on his foe, and he aims to set up a crucifix and start getting off elbows. Brady climbs over to pursue a one-arm guillotine choke, hooking Matthews’ neck in the crook of his elbow. The Aussie pulls Brady back to his half guard, so Brady starts dropping down punches. Brady presses heavily with another one-arm guillotine choke, and he squeezes his forearm under Matthews’ chin while maintaining heavy shoulder pressure. When he cannot secure a choke, Brady sits up to land a few punches until time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 2
There is a glove touch to check in the second round, and Matthews sticks out several jabs to open the round. Both men start letting loose with their hands, and Brady backs Matthews off with a few stiff punches. Matthews scores a heavy right hand, and Brady eats it like a Philly cheesesteak and throws back. Matthews sinks in the right hand once more, and Brady circles on the outside and is getting tagged. Brady changes angles and lands a leg kick, and he backs away to avoid a punching combination soaring at him. Brady shoots in low for a takedown, and Matthews looks to defend it but gets scooped up and falls to his back. The American easily slices into half guard, and Matthews scoots his back up to the fence while Brady drags him back down. The unbeaten fighter postures up and drops down several punches, and Matthews sits up while he continues to eat shots. Brady takes Matthews’ back for a moment, before allowing Matthews to get his back up against the fence. Brady hops on top and latches on to a guillotine choke, but bails on it to instead bowl Matthews over. Brady once more threatens with a one-arm guillotine, landing punches while fishing for the choke. Brady gives up on the choke attempt to sit up in half guard, and he start working Matthews from above. Brady keeps Matthews grounded with his right arm, reaching for that choke position any time Matthews gives up his neck for more than a moment. Brady climbs into mount and starts pounding on Matthews, and Matthews turns over to surrender his back. As Matthews eats punches, he rolls to his back and then his side, riding out the round absorbing strikes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 3
Brady paces back and forth before the final round begins, and the two welterweights touch gloves one last time. Brady dances on the outskirts, landing a leg kick and avoiding the counter punches from Matthews. The Aussie just misses with a right hand, and Brady’s combination breaks up Matthews’. Matthews lands several punches to force Brady to retreat, and Brady rocks Matthews with a left hand. Brady does not leap forward to finish the job, and instead resets to keep his distance striking going. Matthews gathers his thoughts and slings a right hand, and Brady powers Matthews to the canvas by faking for a takedown and pushing a bent over Matthews down. Matthews tries to roll through the position but he falls to his back, and scrambles back to his knees as Brady takes his back. Brady slams his fist into the side of Matthews’ head repeatedly, and the Aussie squirms to the fence but is taking some serious shots. Brady gets one hook in from behind, and he starts dropping down left hands as Matthews turtles up briefly. The American’s top pressure keeps Brady grounded, all while dropping bombs.
When Matthews scrambles, he falls to his back and Brady instantly sets up an arm-triangle choke. Brady is unable to get the leverage he needs, but he repositions himself and slides over to the side to lock in the choke once and for all. “The Celtic Kid” thinks about tapping, and then tries to break the grip; at the last second before going out, he taps to formally declare his surrender.
What a performance for Brady, who is now a perfect 14-0 and calls for a spot on the rankings after an outstanding win.
The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Jake Matthews R3 3:28 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Big Brady picks Sean Brady, giving him the advantage in striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes Brady's higher volume and takedown accuracy (57%) and 100% takedown defense. He acknowledges Matthews has better competition and experience but favors Brady everywhere else. He predicts a decision win and mentions Brady as a parlay piece.
Daniel picks Sean Brady to edge a 29-28 decision, noting that Brady does just enough to win and that Jake Matthews tends to fade in later rounds. He acknowledges Matthews' potential but believes Brady's methodical style will be enough.
Brady is the better striker with good combinations and kicks, and has a strong grappling game as a Daniel Gracie black belt. Matthews tends to muscle fights and slows down later. The host sees Brady as the lock of the night, predicting a first or second round submission.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady over Jake Matthews. He criticizes Matthews for not finishing Diego Sanchez and for close fights. He praises Brady's grappling, cardio, and chin, and believes Brady will win the grappling exchanges and stand-up, winning by 29-28 unanimous decision.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad despite admitting it goes against his gut. He believes Belal's constant pressure and wrestling volume will be the difference, as Sean Brady has cardio issues and tends to slow down. He compares it to the Maximov vs Malkoun fight, where constant shooting won the day.
Big Brady picks the underdog Belal Muhammad to win by decision. He questions Brady's takedown defense (87% but untested) and notes Brady slowed down in the Chiesa and McGee fights. Muhammad has superior cardio, volume, and takedown defense (91%). He expects Muhammad to have success in the striking as the fight goes on and win a decision.
Cody picks Belal as an underdog, citing his relentless pace, excellent cardio, and underrated wrestling. He notes Belal's takedowns against top competition and his solid chin. Cody thinks Brady's striking is better but Belal can grind him down. He also mentions the Abu Dhabi factor and Khabib's help.
Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad to win, calling it 'first L time' for Sean Brady. He praises Belal's fight IQ, cardio, and ability to adapt, noting he stuffed 20 takedowns against Damian Maia and overcame adversity against Vicente Luque. Levi thinks Belal's preparation with Khabib Nurmagomedov will help him deal with Brady's top control. He believes Belal will pull away in the second and third rounds. Levi bet 2 units at +116.
Brady is very difficult to take down, with only one takedown allowed in four UFC fights. He transitions well from takedown attempts to back control, as seen against Chiesa. Muhammad's wrestling-heavy style may not work, and Brady's power striking could land. Brady by decision at +150 is a solid play.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Belal's smart game plan and ability to stick to it. He mentions Belal's grappling success against Vicente Luque and that Brady hasn't been tested against top competition. Paul likes the plus money and picks Belal.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady over Belal Muhammad, despite Brady being a favorite. He believes Brady's grappling threat will stifle Belal's stand-up, similar to the Damian Maia fight. He notes Brady's improvements, including a grappling match with Craig Jones, and predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Brady winning the first two rounds.
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