UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz Next Fight
Age 27
Height 5' 3"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 24
Height 5' 3"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Yazmin Jauregui
6.64 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
5.25 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Iasmin Lucindo
3.22 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
2.8 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
2.28 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Yazmin Jauregui
Moneyline
Caesars -210
KO/TKO
FanDuel +300
Submission
FanDuel +1200
Decision
BetWay +163
Iasmin Lucindo
Moneyline
FanDuel +188
KO/TKO
BetWay +1000
Submission
BetMGM +1600
Decision
BetRivers +370
Yazmin Jauregui - Fight History
LOSS vs Ketlen Souza
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:02 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Souza 0 35 of 73 47% 35 of 73 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Yazmin Jauregui 1 21 of 35 60% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Souza 0 35 of 73 47% 35 of 73 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Yazmin Jauregui 1 21 of 35 60% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Souza 35 of 73 47% 18 of 52 8 of 10 9 of 11 29 of 66 5 of 5 1 of 2
Yazmin Jauregui 21 of 35 60% 12 of 25 6 of 7 3 of 3 16 of 30 4 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Souza 35 of 73 47% 18 of 52 8 of 10 9 of 11 29 of 66 5 of 5 1 of 2
Yazmin Jauregui 21 of 35 60% 12 of 25 6 of 7 3 of 3 16 of 30 4 of 4 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jauregui (-500), Souza (+380)

Round 1
One of three ladies repping Mexico tonight, Jauregui (11-1, 3-1 UFC) recently got past her first career hiccup by beating up on Sam Hughes in February. Her opponent Souza (14-4, 1-1 UFC) too rebounded from a defeat, taking a decision over Marnic Mann this past April. One of these one-fight win streaks will come to a screeching halt in 15 minutes or less, and referee Jason Herzog should be the first to know. The strawweights tap gloves together before engaging. Jauregui jabs first, and he follows one with a leg kick that she turns her hips into. Jauregui strings together a combination started by a jab, and when Souza responds, Jauregui dings her with a right hand over the top. Jauregui prods out a jab with her foot, and she sticks a few more jabs before another front kick to the body irritates the Brazilian. Jauregui puts a combination of strikes to the body and head, and one low kick bangs into Souza’s groin. Souza takes a little over 30 seconds to recover, and they start off with flurries on both sides. The two women stand and bang, and Jauregui pushes Souza to her back after landing flush. Souza jumps back upright, and Jauregui works her lead leg over with kicks before marking up the body. Jauregui splits the guard with a right hand, putting two kicks together and a few punches after it. Jauregui is constantly attacking, with a jump knee into a few punches. Souza jabs her back, and she plants a front kick directly on Jauregui’s groin to pay her back from the foul. They both let out wails of surprise and discomfort, and Herzog tells them they both had one so they can have no more. Souza walks her foe down, but she gets tagged with four strikes up close before she gets anything off. Jauregui paws out a front kick to the thigh, and “Esquentadinha”—which means “Little Hothead” releases a fiery right hand that sets up a flaming left. As soon as Souza connects, Jauregui hits the ground hard. Jauregui sits up, and Souza pounces, seeing that Jauregui still does not have her wits about her.
Souza takes the back while she is standing up and Jauregui is seated, and she grips a rear-naked choke that is instantly under the chin before she even gets her hooks in. The Brazilian deploys both hooks and Jauregui frantically hand-fights to save herself from the submission. Souza’s grip is ironclad, and Jauregui stops fighting the hands and starts lifelessly flailing.
With her eyes open, Jauregui goes out, and Herzog is quick to get between them and turns Jauregui to her side to get blood flowing back to her brain. Souza unleashes a bellow as she walks off, recording the first finish inside of the Sphere and notching a huge upset. The victorious Brazilian becomes the first fighter to submit Jauregui, doing so with style points with the technical submission.

The Official Result
Ketlen Souza def. Yazmin Jauregui R1 3:02 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Angelo picks Yazmin Jauregui confidently, citing her superior technical striking and takedown defense. He notes she defended all six takedowns in her last fight and should be too good to be taken down by Souza. His only concern is Souza's power, as he saw Jauregui get knocked out live at UFC 290, but he believes she should be fine. He suggests the under 2.5 rounds could be a sneaky play as both have finishing ability.

Mentions round line could be interesting; suggests under 2.5 rounds might make sense.
"This should be Yasmin all day long she's the much more technical Striker she's much much too good to be taken down on the other side her takedown defense should hold up my one and only concern here is klin's …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Big Brady believes Jauregui is the much better fighter everywhere, especially on the feet where she is powerful and can break Souza. He notes Souza has been finished in all four losses (two by submission, two by KO) and expects Jauregui to get a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"I think her is the much better fighter here I think she's better wherever the fight goes... I think heri eventually gets s out of there in the second round I say second round knockout for Yasmin heri"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Daniel picks Yazmin Jauregui, praising her volume, speed, composure, and improved grappling. He notes Souza's lower output and high-energy moves that may lead to gassing. He expects Jauregui to win by decision or finish.

"I think she's gonna gas out Katlin and tea off on her to either win a decision or a finish"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)

The transcript does not discuss this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Jauregui is an absolute menace and the second biggest favorite on the card. She is far superior to Souza in the striking realm. If Souza looks to take the fight to the ground, she will struggle, allowing Jauregui to touch her up from distance and win on the scorecards.

"yagui is an absolute Menace and she is I believe the second biggest favorite on the card I think she is far superior to Souza here specifically in the Striking real"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

The MMA Guru picks Yazmin Jauregui. He notes she is a more technical fighter and a good prospect who bounced back after a KO loss with a win. He mentions she has good wins in the UFC and has fraud-checked some fighters. He dismisses the loss to Denise Gomez as a fluke due to Gomez's power.

"I'm going to go Yasmin yurui other than her loss where she got chinned not that long ago by um Denise Gomez who is just you know sometimes skill can only take you so far"
WIN vs Sam Hughes
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yazmin Jauregui 0 94 of 269 34% 97 of 272 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 83 of 197 42% 88 of 206 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yazmin Jauregui 0 28 of 88 31% 29 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 19 of 47 40% 21 of 52 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
2 Yazmin Jauregui 0 32 of 91 35% 33 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 36 of 75 48% 39 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Yazmin Jauregui 0 34 of 90 37% 35 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 28 of 75 37% 28 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yazmin Jauregui 94 of 269 34% 52 of 197 24 of 42 18 of 30 84 of 253 10 of 16 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 83 of 197 42% 40 of 143 17 of 24 26 of 30 80 of 190 3 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yazmin Jauregui 28 of 88 31% 16 of 65 8 of 14 4 of 9 22 of 78 6 of 10 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 19 of 47 40% 11 of 36 3 of 6 5 of 5 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Yazmin Jauregui 32 of 91 35% 18 of 67 9 of 14 5 of 10 29 of 87 3 of 4 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 36 of 75 48% 15 of 53 11 of 11 10 of 11 34 of 70 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Yazmin Jauregui 34 of 90 37% 18 of 65 7 of 14 9 of 11 33 of 88 1 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 28 of 75 37% 14 of 54 3 of 7 11 of 14 27 of 73 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Angelo is very confident in Jauregui, believing the UFC set this up for her to get back on track. He notes her striking and grappling are impressive, and while she was knocked out quickly in her last fight, Sam Hughes doesn't hit as hard. He trusts the process.

"Yasmin yui is going to be the pick very confident in that pick but Sam Hughes has played spoiler before"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Big Brady picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Jauregui is the biggest favorite on the card at -500 and that the matchup is favorable. He praises Jauregui's takedown defense and striking, while criticizing Sam Hughes's hittability and toughness. He thinks Jauregui will dominate on the feet and potentially finish Hughes, though he questions Jauregui's chin after being dropped in her last two fights.

Jauregui wins by KO in round 2
"I'm going to take Yasmin hery here I think it's going to be an absolute beat down minus 500 it's scary but maybe she does look minus 500 when it's all said and done so give me asmin hery to …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Cody picks Jauregui but is hesitant, calling it the coward's way out. He notes Jauregui's durability is a question mark after being knocked out by Denise Gomes, but her takedown defense held against Lendo. He thinks Jauregui has a massive advantage on the feet and is more interested in live betting.

"I will take the coward's way out I will take yadman oriki as a pick here I think this is a fight that I'm more interested in a live betting perspective"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

The host believes Hughes will be the best wrestler Jauregui has faced, despite Jauregui's 100% takedown defense rate (only two attempts faced). He thinks Hughes's improvement at Fortis MMA and game planning will allow her to take the fight into deep waters and win on the scorecards, springing a massive upset.

"I think Hughes will be the best wrestler that y has faced and even though yui showcases at 100% takedown defense rate she's only faced two takedown attempts in her three UFC fights thus far I think Sam Hughes has …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Paul leans towards Hughes due to the massive plus price. He notes Hughes is 3-1 in her last four, gritty, and has been using more wrestling lately. He questions what makes Jauregui such a huge favorite, as she hasn't excelled in hard 15-minute fights. However, he admits Hughes isn't a power puncher and if it's a striking affair, Jauregui likely wins.

"I think I might take Sam Hughes if for no other reason then the price tag is just ridiculous"
LOSS vs Denise Gomes
TKO (punches) R1 0:20 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Denise Gomes 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yazmin Jauregui 1 17 of 20 85% 21 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Denise Gomes 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yazmin Jauregui 1 17 of 20 85% 21 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Denise Gomes 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yazmin Jauregui 17 of 20 85% 17 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 13 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Denise Gomes 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yazmin Jauregui 17 of 20 85% 17 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 13 of 14
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Angelo avoids this fight entirely, calling it a trap. He acknowledges Jauregui's striking talent but notes she was dropped in her last fight. Gomes is tough and comes forward, but takes time to get going. He thinks Jauregui should win if it stays on the feet, but recommends fading the female fighter who was just rocked. He makes no pick and advises others to avoid betting.

Avoiding the fight
"I'm avoiding this fight like the plague and I recommend you do as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Big Brady picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Jauregui is the much better striker, more defensively sound, and can also take the fight to the mat. He has concerns about Gomes' striking defense, as she blocks punches with her face and has been dropped multiple times. He expects a war but believes Jauregui will finish Gomes. He comments that the line at -400 is wild but thinks Jauregui is the better fighter.

second round knockout
"Yasmin jauregu wins this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Cody picks Jauregui, citing her volume and cardio advantage. He thinks Gomes is tough but lacks the wrestling to neutralize Jauregui's pressure. He expects Jauregui to pull away on the scorecards. He notes Gomes is live at plus money but doesn't see a clear path.

Jauregui by decision, over rounds
"I think yasmine's gonna slowly pull away on the numbers the longer the fight goes and eventually that leads to a decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Connor picks Yazmin Jauregui because she is a potential future title contender with excellent pocket defense, balance, and combination punching. She stays compact, keeps a tight guard, and closes exchanges with a powerful left hook. Gomes is still raw and relies on pressure without consistent offense, and Jauregui's ability to absorb and adjust makes her the clear winner.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"She's a potential future title contender."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Daniel Levi picks Jauregui, highlighting her high output, Mexican heart, and improved physique. He notes that she was dropped in her last fight but got back up and showed durability. Levi respects Gomes for her win over Bruna Brasil but believes Jauregui has the higher upside and will be the longer fighter. He calls the fight a potential barnburner and picks Jauregui to win, though he is not interested in betting at minus-400.

"I think Yasmine year agui has the higher upside I think the line reflects that and for that reason I'm gonna pick her to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Yazmin Jauregui

James picks Yazmin Jauregui to win, likely by decision. He thinks Jauregui's understanding of range, footwork, and distance management are way better than Gomes'. He acknowledges Gomes hits hard and could drop Jauregui, but believes Jauregui is a level above and will school her on the feet. He considered playing the over but may not bet.

Yazmin Jauregui wins by decision (considered); over (considered, not played)
"I think yasmin's understanding of range and understanding of footwork and distance management are way better than Denise Gomez"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Jauregui is a more polished striker with good footwork and counter-striking. Gomes is aggressive but will struggle to close the distance against Jauregui's technical striking. Jauregui will set traps, land damage, and avoid trouble, winning by decision. The over 2.5 rounds is the favorite spot.

over 2.5 rounds
"give me yadagui by decision but over two and a half probably being my favorite spot in this matchup."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Paul takes Gomes as a value underdog at +350. He thinks the line is too wide and the fight is closer to 70-30. He notes both are prospects and Gomes is younger. He says he wouldn't recommend betting Jauregui at -400. He took a small shot on Gomes.

Gomes by KO/TKO (+175)
"I took Denise Gomez plus 350 on like Sunday it's a good price tag"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

The MMA Guru picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by 29-28 decision. He considers her a rare talented female fighter, comparing her to Loopy Godinez who beat Gomes. He criticizes Gomes' inability to fight on the back foot, as seen in her win over Bruna Brasil, which he views as an exposure of Brasil rather than a testament to Gomes.

wins by 29-28 decision
"I am gonna have to go with Eureka winning this one by 29-28 decision in classic women's MMA fashion"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Zane picks Yazmin Jauregui because she is a very good action fighter with fast hands, tight technique, and a devastating left hook. She adjusts well under pressure and uses data from exchanges to build offense. Gomes improved in her last fight by throwing punches while pressuring, but Jauregui is a much higher level opponent who can handle reckless collisions and counter effectively.

Jauregui opened at -455, currently -383; Gomes opened at +364, currently +316. Zane says odds reflect the matchup and he wouldn't expect them to get much tighter.
"Pretty easy pick for Jauregui."
WIN vs Istela Nunes
TKO (punches) R2 4:06 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yazmin Jauregui 2 67 of 154 43% 103 of 200 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:50
Istela Nunes 1 36 of 60 60% 39 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yazmin Jauregui 0 27 of 86 31% 27 of 86 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:06
Istela Nunes 1 24 of 40 60% 25 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Yazmin Jauregui 2 40 of 68 58% 76 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Istela Nunes 0 12 of 20 60% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yazmin Jauregui 67 of 154 43% 54 of 135 6 of 11 7 of 8 38 of 109 7 of 12 22 of 33
Istela Nunes 36 of 60 60% 20 of 41 12 of 14 4 of 5 28 of 50 8 of 8 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yazmin Jauregui 27 of 86 31% 18 of 72 4 of 8 5 of 6 25 of 82 2 of 4 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 24 of 40 60% 13 of 29 7 of 7 4 of 4 20 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Yazmin Jauregui 40 of 68 58% 36 of 63 2 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 27 5 of 8 22 of 33
Istela Nunes 12 of 20 60% 7 of 12 5 of 7 0 of 1 8 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Angelo picks Yazmin Jauregui but is hesitant, noting that Istela Nunes is a legitimate professional kickboxer with impressive speed and versatility. He believes if Nunes has full three-round cardio, she should be the better overall striker. However, he leans on Jauregui because Nunes gassed in her last fight against Sam Hughes. He calls the odds 'absolute insanity' and expects a mostly striking matchup.

Surprised by the odds (Jauregui almost 4-to-1 favorite)
"I'm gonna pick Yasmin but the only reason I'm picking Yasmin is because the seller gassed in that fight against Sam Hughes"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Big Brady leans towards Jauregui due to her youth (23 years old) and cardio advantage, expecting Nunes to slow down in the later rounds. He notes that Jauregui is a striker and unlikely to exploit Nunes' takedown defense weakness. He predicts a competitive fight early but Jauregui taking over in the second and third rounds to win a decision.

Jauregui wins by decision
"I think it's going to be competitive early on... but as the fight goes on I do think she's going to start to slow... I do see heregie taking over second third round and winning the decision there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Cody picks Jauregui but is tempted by Nunes as a dog. He notes Nunes' power and counter-striking, but thinks her cardio will fade. He suggests live betting Nunes after round 1.

live bet on Nunes after round 1
"I will take Yasmine but what I can offer up is live bet this thing because the Stella Nunes is a problem in the first round"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Connor picks Yazmin Jauregui, agreeing that Nunes fades when pressured and that Jauregui's technical punching and pocket dedication will win out over multiple rounds. He notes that Nunes has a history of crumbling once her confidence is dented.

"How to gree is the favorite here as expected open to minus 240 dropped to minus 350 currently minus 330."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Daniel Levi picks Jauregui, citing her high output, takedown defense, and heart. He notes Nunes' pacing issues and believes Jauregui's youth and pressure will carry her. He is not betting at the price but is confident in the pick.

"I'm gonna go with the favorite Yasmine uh yaragui to get this one done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

The host picks Jauregui to win by third-round TKO. He thinks Nunes will start strong but fade due to poor cardio, allowing Jauregui to take over and finish. He is wary of the minus 300 chalk but believes Jauregui is a decent enough prospect to survive early and finish late. He notes that Nunes is likely fighting for her UFC spot.

Jauregui round 3 TKO
"I'm gonna go yadagui round three TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Paul picks Jauregui but is puzzled by the price. He notes her potential and Nunes' cardio issues. He thinks Jauregui can win by decision or late finish if she mixes in takedowns.

Jauregui by decision
"I'm gonna be picking wariki I'm just uh kind of puzzled about how I how I approach this matchup"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

The MMA Guru picks Yazmin Jauregui because she lived up to her hype in the UFC, showing rare talent in the women's division. He notes Istela Nunes has lost her last two fights and is under pressure at 30 years old. He predicts Jauregui will win by decision, citing her youth (23) and ability to overcome octagon jitters.

Jauregui by decision
"I'm gonna be going with Yasmine Jared because she had hype coming into the UFC but she actually lived up to that hype once she got into the UFC"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Zane picks Yazmin Jauregui, citing her consistent boxing, tight defense, and ability to exit exchanges with a left hook. He notes that Nunes is a sharp striker early but fades when pressured, and Jauregui's counter punching will be a problem for Nunes.

"I gotta take how to give her basically just for like the depth and consistency of her uh of her boxing."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yazmin Jauregui 0 86 of 218 39% 87 of 219 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Iasmin Lucindo 0 66 of 181 36% 66 of 181 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yazmin Jauregui 0 31 of 77 40% 31 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Iasmin Lucindo 0 25 of 60 41% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Yazmin Jauregui 0 30 of 69 43% 31 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Iasmin Lucindo 0 23 of 59 38% 23 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
3 Yazmin Jauregui 0 25 of 72 34% 25 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Iasmin Lucindo 0 18 of 62 29% 18 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yazmin Jauregui 86 of 218 39% 52 of 159 9 of 25 25 of 34 81 of 210 5 of 8 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 66 of 181 36% 42 of 148 15 of 22 9 of 11 64 of 179 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yazmin Jauregui 31 of 77 40% 16 of 55 2 of 4 13 of 18 29 of 72 2 of 5 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 25 of 60 41% 15 of 49 7 of 8 3 of 3 23 of 58 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Yazmin Jauregui 30 of 69 43% 17 of 48 5 of 11 8 of 10 27 of 66 3 of 3 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 23 of 59 38% 17 of 50 3 of 6 3 of 3 23 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yazmin Jauregui 25 of 72 34% 19 of 56 2 of 10 4 of 6 25 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 18 of 62 29% 10 of 49 5 of 8 3 of 5 18 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Angelo loves Yazmin Jauregui, citing her powerful striking, combinations, and solid takedown defense. He thinks the -240 odds are correct but is hesitant to bet due to both making their UFC debut. He expects the line to move and recommends jumping on it early.

Odds comment: -240 is correct, line will move
"i absolutely love yasmin in this fight obviously there's some questions around her takedown defense and her bjj off her back but i think i've watched enough tape to see just how solid that defense is"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Big Brady picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by first-round knockout. He describes Jauregui as a savage who comes forward, eats punches to land her own, and has power. He thinks Lucindo is not quite ready for the UFC level and that Jauregui's takedown defense and grappling will hold up. He expects Jauregui to overwhelm Lucindo and finish her in the first round.

first round knockout
"i think she finishes lucinda here i think she does in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Cody also leans toward Jauregui, calling her the right favorite but not wanting heavy investment. He notes Lucindo is very green and relies on getting the fight to the ground, while Jauregui has better striking and takedown defense. He considers this a pass due to the uncertainty.

"i don't know that i would want a ton of investment here but i think she is the right favorite"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Daniel Levi is unsure about this fight. He notes that Jauregui has a clear edge on the feet with power and aggression, while Lucindo has a grappling advantage. He says if the fight stays standing, Jauregui wins; if it goes to the mat, Lucindo wins. He picks Lucindo as a dog but with low confidence.

"I guess I'll go Lucindo because since I'm not obvious about the favorite I'll go with the dog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Yazmin Jauregui

The host picks Jauregui, noting she has solid power and good volume. He thinks she will eventually get the finish, and suggests playing her KO straight up at +250 or first round KO at +700. He believes Lucindo is a short-notice replacement but has experience, though he doesn't think it's a good matchup for her.

Jauregui by KO at +250; Jauregui round 1 KO at +700 (considering).
"i think eventually she'll get the finish i think the safer way to play is just play ko straight up which is still getting about plus 250"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Paul leans toward Jauregui, noting she is more well-rounded with good striking and footwork. He acknowledges Lucindo's wrestling and top game but thinks Jauregui can keep the fight standing and piece her up. However, he is not confident due to the low level of competition and both fighters being young and making debuts.

"i think she'll probably keep the fight standing for the most part stop the takedowns when need be and kind of piece her up from range"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

The host picks Yazmin Jauregui, citing her undefeated record and improvement against better competition. He notes she had more time to prepare for the fight and has momentum from a tournament win. However, he admits uncertainty about both fighters and wouldn't be surprised by an upset.

"i'm going to be going with yasmin jaurudjie"
Iasmin Lucindo - Fight History
WIN vs Angela Hill
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 72 of 151 47% 100 of 187 3 of 7 42% 0 0 5:37
Angela Hill 0 64 of 110 58% 80 of 129 0 of 5 0% 1 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 27 of 68 39% 28 of 69 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
Angela Hill 0 25 of 46 54% 26 of 47 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:33
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 28 of 50 56% 30 of 52 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Angela Hill 0 31 of 54 57% 38 of 63 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:46
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 17 of 33 51% 42 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:55
Angela Hill 0 8 of 10 80% 16 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 72 of 151 47% 56 of 128 12 of 19 4 of 4 57 of 130 11 of 17 4 of 4
Angela Hill 64 of 110 58% 42 of 84 19 of 23 3 of 3 52 of 92 12 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 27 of 68 39% 19 of 57 6 of 9 2 of 2 22 of 58 5 of 10 0 of 0
Angela Hill 25 of 46 54% 18 of 38 5 of 6 2 of 2 22 of 41 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 28 of 50 56% 21 of 42 6 of 7 1 of 1 22 of 43 6 of 7 0 of 0
Angela Hill 31 of 54 57% 19 of 39 11 of 14 1 of 1 22 of 41 9 of 13 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 17 of 33 51% 16 of 29 0 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 29 0 of 0 4 of 4
Angela Hill 8 of 10 80% 5 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Angela Hill vs. Iasmin Lucindo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lucindo (-190); Hill (+150)

Round 1
While the previous match had an age difference of eight years, this strawweight pairing may make UFC history as Lucindo (17-6, 4-2 UFC) is just about 17 years younger than ultra-active veteran Hill (18-14, 13-14 UFC). Someone with a mind for stats and figures should look into that. Taking responsibility of the match will be referee Chris Tognoni, who witnesses the “featured fight of the night” combatants think about bumping fists but ultimately not doing it.
Lucindo gets right in Hill’s face with short check hooks. Hill does not like them and considers clinching up, only for the younger woman to turn it against her and get a body lock from behind. Lucindo leaps onto Hill’s back, dragging her down from behind. Hill works right back up, fighting the hands clasped around her waist to she can break out of the position. Lucindo leans heavily on the elder stateswoman, and Hill trips her down for a second. When Lucindo climbs back up, Hill knees her in the face. They proceed to bang it out for a short spell until Hill elbows her way out, and Hill rushes back in behind her elbow strike. Hill dives down after a single, and Lucindo stands her up and just misses on a counter elbow. Hill scores, and Lucindo counters with a big left hook that makes Hill step back.
The Brazilian connects with a body kick right before Hill’s overhand right response lands, and the latter follows her punch with a front kick to the stomach. Lucindo sits down on her big right hand, getting Hill’s attention, and she follows with two punches down the pipe when Hill offers back a low kick. Lucindo crowds Hill and clubs her with multiple hooks, laying into the veteran with a series of punches that spur Hill into a takedown shot. Lucindo bullies “Overkill” to the fence and breaks off with an elbow, and she sways to avoid two quick punches up top. Lucindo brushes the midsection with her foot when spinning with a back kick, and her subsequent back fist fails. The momentum of the Brazilian allows her to tackle Hill to the floor, and when the horn sounds, she helps Hill back to her feet.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo

Round 2
The ladies do not need more than a second or two to engage in the second round, with Lucindo’s power the difference maker in their exchanges. Hill takes several punches and goes wild with a spinning wheel kick, turning to flow with a back fist then gripping hold of the younger woman’s neck to tighten up a guillotine choke while standing. Lucindo gets out of it, but not before taking an elbow on the dome. Lucindo does not back down, cracking Hill with clubbing hooks and forcing Hill to reel. Lucindo lands with two of three looping punches, and Hill sneaks in a right hand back. Lucindo pops Hill in the chops with her heavier left hand, and Hill has to clinch up to slow Lucindo down. Lucindo tries to muscle her way out, and only a Hill winging elbow allows Lucindo to get free.
The two women crash together throwing hands, and they bang heads together while doing so. This does not slow them, as Hill muscles Lucindo to the wall after landing strikes. Lucindo frees herself from the grip and leans into power punches. The Brazilian plants a spinning back kick from up close to the stomach, and she goes to the spin well with an elbow that Hill sees coming. Hill flicks out a few jabs, and she overswings and finds Lucindo ducking under to grab her from behind. Hill works her way to lean against the fencing, and Lucindo hangs on kneeing her until she kicks out Hill’s leg and wrenches her to the floor. Lucindo clings to her opponent’s back until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo

Round 3
The strawweights meet in the middle and throw hands, with Lucindo’s right driving Hill back out of the gate. Hill is quick to respond, but Lucindo’s fast-swinging hooks keep backing Hill off. Lucindo takes strikes on the chin and hurls back not only harder, but with more volume. Hill scoops up Lucindo’s legs suddenly to throw her to the floor, and Lucindo practically bounces off the mat to get to her feet. When Hill scores cleanly, Lucindo drills her square in the jaw and makes her take several steps back. Lucindo continues pressing forward, tackling the longtime vet to the floor and landing in side control. To remain in control, the Brazilian relocates into half guard. Hill sits up, and Lucindo elbows her in the back of the head. Hill keeps twisting in hopes of escaping,
Lucindo embraces the grind, wresting away any hopes of Hill staging a comeback. Hill tries to buck and kick off, and Lucindo puts her face on Hill’s face. Tognoni warns Lucindo for grinding her chin into Hill’s eye, which at one point in the sport’s history was legal as evidenced by Hall of Famer Mark Kerr’s past victory over Dan Bobish. Lucindo does not engage with much additional offense other than sporadic ground-and-pound to stave of Tognoni. He calls for them to do more, and Lucindo lashes out with elbows and punches as the match concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)

The Official Result
Iasmin Lucindo def. Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo leans Iasmin Lucindo, thinking she will bully her way to a win with powerful strikes and gritty wrestling. He notes Angela Hill is a crafty veteran with good speed and volume but no power. However, Hill could win by staying on her bike and avoiding the clinch. Angelo advises not betting on this fight.

Advises not betting on this fight.
"I'm going to lean Eisman because I think she like literally will bully her way to a win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Big Brady hesitantly picks Angela Hill, acknowledging she may be regressing but believes she still has more volume on the feet and improved takedown defense. He thinks the fight will be close and could go to a split decision. He is not betting on her, as he lacks confidence.

split decision
"I'll pick Hill with not a ton of confidence, but I'll pick her to win a very close decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Connor picks Angela Hill, citing her improved fight management and veteran savvy. He notes that Lucindo is aimless and struggled when faced with a fighter she had to respect (Amanda Lemos). Connor believes Hill's pressure, volume, and clinch work will be enough to win a close decision, though he acknowledges Lucindo's speed and power could swing rounds.

Odds mentioned: Lucindo opened -200, currently -200; Hill opened +170, currently +170.
"I think I'll take Angela Hill. I mean, I think either way it's going to be close."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Angela Hill

The host notes Lucindo struggles when she can't get takedowns, and Hill has shown defensive improvements in grappling. He believes Hill can stop takedowns or get back to her feet quickly, then use her striking advantage to outweigh Lucindo's control and win on the scorecards by landing more damage.

"We've seen Lucindo struggle when she can't get takedowns or be the one on top. And we've seen enough defensive improvements from Hill in the grappling realm that I think she can either stop the takedowns, get back to her …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill as an upset, citing her volume striking and clinch work. He believes Lucindo can't finish Hill and that Hill's activity will win her a close decision. He notes Hill has been robbed before but expects her to get the nod this time.

"I think Angela Hill is going to win a close decision here. Maybe this is another upset."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane leans toward Lucindo, arguing that Hill cannot put the fear in Lucindo that Lemos did, allowing Lucindo to be more proactive. He notes that Lucindo is faster and more dynamic than Hill's recent opponents, and that Hill's wins over similar fighters (Sosa, Pinheiro) were close. However, he admits it could easily be a split decision and that Hill's experience is a factor.

Odds mentioned: Lucindo opened -200, currently -200; Hill opened +170, currently +170.
"I just don't think that Angela Hill can put that fear in her. And so without that, I think she can be a lot more willing to just sit down and throw and do enough damage to scrape out a …"
LOSS vs Amanda Lemos
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 12 of 21 57% 30 of 42 3 of 5 60% 0 0 7:58
Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 16 25% 40 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 10 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:40
Iasmin Lucindo 0 0 of 4 0% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
2 Amanda Lemos 0 7 of 12 58% 10 of 16 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:41
Iasmin Lucindo 0 0 of 3 0% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 4 50% 12 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:37
Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 9 44% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 12 of 21 57% 8 of 16 2 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 4 of 6
Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 16 25% 2 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2
Iasmin Lucindo 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 7 of 12 58% 4 of 8 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 4
Iasmin Lucindo 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amanda Lemos 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 9 44% 2 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Connor picks Lemos because she is a physical force who can hit hard and is strong in the clinch. He notes that Lucindo is raw and messy, relying on speed and counters, but Lemos has excellent timing and power. Connor worries about Lemos's tendency to wrestle, which could play into Lucindo's hands, but believes Lemos's strength and durability will carry her. He sees Lucindo as too young and raw for this step up.

Odds: Lemos opened at -130, now +130; Lucindo opened at -110, now -140. Connor is surprised Lucindo is favored.
"I think I have to pick Limo. I think so too. I mean, the prospect of staying at long range and waiting and hoping to time a man to lamos, yeah, is a fundamentally dangerous proposition."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucrative James picks Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lemos is a better striker but has clear grappling deficiencies, having been submitted before. He thinks Lucindo can win by submission or decision through grappling control. He mentions he cashed on Lucindo by submission before and sees value in that prop.

Lucindo via submission at +550 (BetOnline); also decision win possible
"I have to side with Yasmin lendo here she's got better fight IQ she has more ways to win CU she can compete in the strike and if she stays at range but she can win via submiss and win …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Zane picks Lemos, agreeing that Lucindo is too raw and that Lemos's power and physicality will be too much. He notes that Lucindo's game is unstructured and she struggles to initiate, while Lemos is a fast starter with excellent timing. Zane also points out that Lucindo's wins over bigger names may be due to catching them at the right time, and Lemos is still a formidable athlete despite her age.

Odds: Lemos opened at -130, now +130; Lucindo opened at -110, now -140. Zane is surprised Lucindo is favored.
"I think this is actually a case where she is too young and raw for this fighter right now and she does not look like yeah, any of the fighters that have beat Amanda Lamos in the past several years."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 33 of 99 33% 65 of 134 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Marina Rodriguez 0 30 of 73 41% 55 of 104 3 of 4 75% 0 1 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 5 of 25 20% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 33 33% 20 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 16 of 37 43% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 24 41% 24 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:08
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 12 of 37 32% 26 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 9 of 16 56% 11 of 23 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 33 of 99 33% 28 of 89 5 of 7 0 of 3 28 of 92 3 of 5 2 of 2
Marina Rodriguez 30 of 73 41% 19 of 56 9 of 13 2 of 4 27 of 68 1 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 5 of 25 20% 4 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 2 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 33 33% 4 of 21 5 of 8 2 of 4 10 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 16 of 37 43% 13 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 1 14 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 10 of 24 41% 6 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 12 of 37 32% 11 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 33 1 of 2 2 of 2
Marina Rodriguez 9 of 16 56% 9 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling, and pressure. He notes Marina Rodriguez has subpar takedown defense and a weak get-up game, which Lucindo can exploit. However, he is concerned about Lucindo's cardio at elevation, as she needs to grind for 15 minutes. He does not bet on this fight due to the elevation risk.

No bet due to elevation concerns
"I am on the eisan lucendo side... but the fact that I need her to be in phenomenal shape and grind for 15 minutes does worry me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22 vs 37) and wrestling advantage. He notes that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and struggles to get back up when taken down. He expects Lucindo to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges the line is a bit steep for someone unproven.

"I got to go lendo here minus 190 it is a little crazy like she is only 22 years old she hasn't proven a ton but I just think that you know she's getting Rodriguez here at the at the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez as a dog, citing her experience and power. He questions Lucindo's level of competition and believes Rodriguez can keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He expects Rodriguez to win by decision or late finish.

"I'll take the dog shot here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Connor picks Lucindo despite acknowledging her technical flaws. He notes that Rodriguez has looked shell-shocked lately and may lose confidence if Lucindo's speed and early pressure put her behind. However, he admits Lucindo is not a complex striker and Rodriguez could take over if she finds her rhythm.

"I'm going to take the Lucendo pick. Yeah. I will too. Why not? Just take the chance."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Daniel Vreeland picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth and takedown ability. He notes that Marina Rodriguez has always struggled with takedown defense, even in her prime, and at 37 it will be worse. Lucindo has landed eight takedowns in her last three fights. Vreeland expects Lucindo to use her wrestling to control the fight and win a decision.

"I think lucendo is going to play this SM she's a young veteran 22 years old"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host leans with veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez, believing she is the better striker. He thinks Lucindo does not control opponents on the mat well enough, forcing her to strike with the better striker and ultimately lose on the scorecards. He predicts Rodriguez by decision.

"I will have to lean with the veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez I think she's the better Striker here and I don't think lucendo does a good enough job in terms of controlling her opponents on the mat"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul leans toward Rodriguez, noting her experience against top competition. He thinks Lucindo is being overvalued and that Rodriguez's defensive grappling is underrated. He sees value at plus 150.

"plus 150 I think you could do a lot worse than Marina Rodriguez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Iasmin Lucindo, despite acknowledging Lucindo's physical advantages. He believes Rodriguez has better performances against higher competition, citing wins over Michelle Waterson and a close split decision with Jessica Andrade. He notes Rodriguez's technique and composure will be key at altitude, and predicts a decision win.

"I'm going to go Marina Rodriguez better performances against better comp"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane also picks Lucindo, citing her speed and youth as advantages. He notes that Rodriguez has struggled recently and may not recover if Lucindo builds an early lead. However, he acknowledges that Lucindo's lack of range control and technical gaps could allow Rodriguez to take over.

"Might just take the speed pick for Lucendo just to go out there and surprise her and be young and improving."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 42 of 111 37% 47 of 119 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 83 of 136 61% 91 of 144 2 of 6 33% 0 0 5:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 7 of 18 38% 8 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 25 of 36 69% 31 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:48
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 26 of 61 42% 26 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 38 of 72 52% 38 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 9 of 32 28% 13 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 20 of 28 71% 22 of 30 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 42 of 111 37% 17 of 73 15 of 22 10 of 16 40 of 108 2 of 3 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 83 of 136 61% 53 of 100 23 of 28 7 of 8 57 of 105 13 of 18 13 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 7 of 18 38% 4 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 4 5 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25 of 36 69% 18 of 28 6 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 17 9 of 12 7 of 7
2 Iasmin Lucindo 26 of 61 42% 9 of 38 11 of 13 6 of 10 26 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 38 of 72 52% 23 of 53 13 of 16 2 of 3 37 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 9 of 32 28% 4 of 22 3 of 8 2 of 2 9 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 20 of 28 71% 12 of 19 4 of 5 4 of 4 11 of 17 3 of 5 6 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Lucindo due to her youth and grappling advantage, but warns the odds are too rich. He notes that if Lucindo can't get takedowns, she's clueless on the feet and Kowalkiewicz could run away with it. He advises caution.

Angelo says 'the minus 330 odds they're just a little too rich for my blood'
"eisan lucendo is the pick but please be careful"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady views Lucindo as a big step up in competition for Kowalkiewicz. He believes Lucindo is better everywhere, with power and takedown ability. He expects Lucindo to win a decision, controlling the fight wherever it goes.

"I'm going to go decision for Lucindo."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo, citing her youth, speed, wrestling advantage, and submission win. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins are over lower-level competition and she's 38. Cody expects Lucindo to mix takedowns and win.

"I think lucendo can win on the feet but yeah mix in those takedowns..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Vreeland picks Kowalkiewicz by decision, citing her experience, volume striking, durability, and strength of schedule. He notes that Lucindo is young and talented but has never faced someone with Kowalkiewicz's level. He mentions Kowalkiewicz's recent four-fight win streak and improved confidence. He considers the decision prop as a potential value play.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I'm gonna go out on a limb I'm not confident but I'mma pick kolina kovak kavich"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is a 22-year-old at minus-400 odds, but stylistically she should be able to drag the fight into her realm with grappling and heavy top pressure. Kowalkiewicz has the striking advantage, but Lucindo has a great chin and ability to crash the pocket and change levels. Lucindo grinds out a decision win.

minus-400 odds
"look for lucino to utilize her grappling to grind out kovok kavich over 15 minutes to get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Paul picks Lucindo, emphasizing her speed, power, and wrestling. He notes Kowalkiewicz is on a four-fight win streak but against weak opposition, and her takedown defense is suspect. Paul sees Lucindo as the future and expects her to win.

"Gotta go Lucindo... young hot Brazilian prospect in Brazil who's got legitimate skills..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22) and power advantage over the 38-year-old Kowalkiewicz. He notes Lucindo's win over Poana Viana and her ability to inflict damage, while questioning Kowalkiewicz's recent level of competition. He believes Lucindo's physicality and aggression will be decisive.

"Yasmin lendo wins"
WIN vs Polyana Viana
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 3:42 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 10 of 25 40% 41 of 68 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:58
Polyana Viana 0 10 of 24 41% 31 of 48 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 6 of 12 50% 26 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:58
Polyana Viana 0 6 of 12 50% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:21
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 13 30% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Polyana Viana 0 4 of 12 33% 14 of 24 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 10 of 25 40% 2 of 15 4 of 6 4 of 4 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 10 of 24 41% 5 of 18 4 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 6 of 12 50% 2 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 6 of 12 50% 3 of 9 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 3
2 Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 13 30% 0 of 7 2 of 4 2 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 4 of 12 33% 2 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Polyana Viana vs. Iasmin Lucindo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lucindo (-198), Viana (+164)

Round 1
Multiple fighters on this billing celebrate 100% finish rates, and Brazilian Viana (13-5, 4-4 UFC) is one of them. In fact, she has landed 12 of her 13 victories in the first round, with her latest a minute and change into Round 2. This likely means that youthful countrywoman Lucindo (14-5, 1-1 UFC) will need to be on her guard and not fall into any early traps if she hopes to put herself on a win streak. Standing by will be referee Chris Tognoni, and the bout opens up as the strawweight clap hands. Viana leads off with a kick that whizzes past the target, and Lucindo counters with a clubbing left hand that staggers Viana briefly. Viana gathers her thoughts and whips down a leg kick, and she partially checks one that eventually comes back her way. Viana scores a low kick and a punch, and she decks Lucindo in the face with her shin. Lucindo tries to punch back, and Viana closes in and grabs hold of her. Viana looks for a takedown, and she slugs Lucindo in the face a few times before dragging her down to the mat violently. Lucindo closes up her guard to try to stall things out, and Viana stays heavily pressed to her to keep her otherwise grounded. Tognoni asks for Viana to do more than sit there, and Viana does not improve her position or attack with anything else. Tognoni once again tells Viana to do something, and Lucindo is clinging tightly to shut down anything. Tognoni stands them up, and Viana helps her opponent to her feet and then offers a glove touch. Lucindo spins with a back kick that grazes off the side, and she misses with a back fist and ends up getting her leg grabbed in the air. Viana looks for a level change, but it is Lucindo who ends up tripping her up and throwing “Dama de Ferro” down to the mat. Viana hits her back and ignores light, frustrating punches bopping her on the side of the head. Viana turns to her side to potentially escape, and Tognoni now asks Lucindo to work. Lucindo postures up with a few hammerfists, and Viana kicks her off right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo

Round 2
The strawweight bump fists together to start off the second stanza, and after a lull, Lucindo springs into action with a head kick and spinning back kick. Lucindo strings together a right and a left, and she hurts Viana. “Dama de Ferro” bounces off the cage wall and shakes out any cobwebs, and Lucindo does not give her chase or pressure her one iota. Instead, Lucindo lets Viana back in the fight, as she slowly works her way forward and tosses out a blocked overhand right. Lucindo spins with a kick that ricochets off the guard, and she tries to boot the ribs only to have that blocked as well. Lucindo drills Viana with a fierce overhand right, and Viana wobbles but does not fall down. Lucindo does not follow it with anything, allowing Viana to shake it off and spin at her with a back fist and keep turning into a body kick. Lucindo meets her in the middle and tackles her to the ground, where she plops on top in half guard. Lucindo smothers and grinds without the occasional short punch. Viana has no offense of her own, prompting Tognoni to tell Lucindo to do something.
Lucindo looks to pass over to three-quarter mount, and she suddenly attacks with an arm-triangle choke. Jumping straight over to the side, the submission is complete and Viana has nothing left to offer. One single tap comes from Viana, and Tognoni recognizes it and pulls the two apart.
For the first time since 2019, Lucindo forced an opponent to tap out, doing so over a woman in Viana that typically is the one submitting others.

The Official Result
Iasmin Lucindo def. Polyana Viana R2 3:42 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Lucindo, trusting her takedown ability and top pressure. He notes Viana is a BJJ threat but Lucindo's defense should hold up. He expects a decision win.

"I think this is an Eisman lucindo fight all day"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo to win by decision, but hates the pick. He notes Lucindo's striking advantage and ability to win minutes, but fears Viana's submission threat, especially the armbar from guard. He says there are two outcomes: Lucindo by decision or Viana by submission. He chooses Lucindo because she has more paths to victory, but will not bet the fight.

"give me a Lucinda by decision I I hate it um but it's got to be the pick right"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo, praising her scrappy style, speed, cardio, and volume. He criticizes Viana's inconsistency and inability to get takedowns against good competition. He thinks Lucindo's strength will prevent takedowns and that she will outwork Viana on the feet. He acknowledges the risk in women's MMA but is confident Lucindo gets the job done.

Lucindo under 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"Yasmine lucindo to get the job done"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

James picks Lucindo, believing she is a good fighter with strong ground skills. He thinks Lucindo's jiu-jitsu is better than Viana's and that she can even submit Viana. He notes Viana's only path to victory is on the ground, but Lucindo is likely better there. James sees value on Lucindo at the current odds, thinking she should be a bigger favorite.

"I think Lucindo's value here... I don't think she should be worse than minus 250 in this spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is young but has good training partners and experience. Viana is an aggressive BJJ black belt who finishes early or fades. Lucindo should be able to use Viana's recklessness against her with takedowns and forward pressure to win a decision. It's a close fight, and a value shot on Viana is not bad, but Lucindo is cleaner.

Lucindo by decision
"I still think that lucindo is clean enough to win this fight over 50 minutes and get her hand raised"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

Paul picks Viana by submission or inside the distance, citing the armbar from guard as a real threat. He thinks Lucindo might be hesitant to take Viana down due to her submission skills, and if the fight goes to the ground, Viana has a clear advantage. However, he admits he's not confident and may not bet it, as he understands Cody's points about Lucindo's volume and strength.

Viana by submission or inside the distance; mentions armbar from guard
"Viana by sub or Fiona inside the distance would be my official pick but I don't know if I'm gonna actually bet it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru initially considered Polyana Viana but switched to Iasmin Lucindo, noting Lucindo's better competition and ability to go three rounds. He mentions Lucindo's wins over Brogan Walker and Yasmine Uruguay, and her experience against Sarah Frota. He believes most people are picking Viana incorrectly and that Lucindo will win.

"I'm going with Yasmine Lucindo over polyana Viana here"
WIN vs Brogan Walker
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Apr 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 53 of 118 44% 57 of 123 4 of 5 80% 0 0 0:46
Brogan Walker 0 29 of 145 20% 31 of 149 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brogan Walker 0 8 of 50 16% 8 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 11 of 29 37% 15 of 34 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:44
Brogan Walker 0 12 of 42 28% 14 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 25 of 46 54% 25 of 46 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:02
Brogan Walker 0 9 of 53 16% 9 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 53 of 118 44% 33 of 93 19 of 23 1 of 2 51 of 115 2 of 2 0 of 1
Brogan Walker 29 of 145 20% 6 of 99 13 of 22 10 of 24 22 of 137 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 17 of 43 39% 13 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 1 16 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Brogan Walker 8 of 50 16% 1 of 33 3 of 6 4 of 11 7 of 48 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 11 of 29 37% 7 of 24 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 1
Brogan Walker 12 of 42 28% 2 of 27 6 of 7 4 of 8 8 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 25 of 46 54% 13 of 32 12 of 14 0 of 0 25 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brogan Walker 9 of 53 16% 3 of 39 4 of 9 2 of 5 7 of 51 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo confidently, based on his notes from Brogan Walker's last fight where she showed awful takedown defense. He believes Lucindo will get takedowns and dominate on the ground, similar to what Juliana Miller did. He notes Lucindo struggled in her last fight but that was a tougher matchup. He is waiting for props to drop, possibly betting on under 2.5 rounds.

Waiting for props, possibly under 2.5 rounds.
"Eisman's definitely the pick a hundred percent the pick she should beat the absolute piss out of Brogan Walker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo to win by second-round TKO. He notes that Lucindo is a 21-year-old prospect with good grappling and ground-and-pound, and that Brogan Walker showed zero takedown defense in her last fight against Juliana Miller, who dominated her. Brady expects Lucindo to take Walker down, beat her up, and finish her on top. He has a bad feeling because of the young age and big favorite status, but still picks Lucindo.

second round TKO
"I'm gonna take lucianu to get the first I'll say second round second round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo despite the high price, using logic over the 'Pac-Man theory' of backing big underdogs. He notes Lucindo is young (20), fast, strong, and aggressive, with a cast-iron chin. He criticizes Brogan Walker as slow and flat-footed, with poor defense. Cody believes Lucindo will land power shots and possibly get a second-round stoppage. However, he admits he won't bet this fight.

"Lucinda's the pick but yeah come Saturday night you know what's gonna happen I know what's gonna happen and there's nothing I can do about it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Brogan Walker

Connor picks Brogan Walker (referred to as 'cash aware' in transcript), reasoning that she is a disciplined puncher who has improved her striking. He notes that Lucindo (Silva) has good submissions off her back but rarely initiates takedowns, and that Walker's pressure will likely put Lucindo on the mat. Connor trusts Walker to land the punch that hurts Lucindo over a Hail Mary submission.

"I'll pick cash aware. I don't know. I'll pick the person that I trust to land the punch that hurts somebody over the get the submit."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Connor picks Lucindo, emphasizing that Walker's fight against Miller showed she is unwilling to engage in striking and has poor balance. He notes that Lucindo is aggressive, hits hard, and makes adjustments, as seen in her fight against a tough opponent. He also points out that Walker's only path is a takedown and grind, but she lacks the coordination to do so.

"I think Brogan Walker is in for a very bad night."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is a grapple-heavy fighter with good top control and pressure. She trains with Virna Jandiroba, which should help her grappling. Brogan Walker has shown inconsistent takedown defense and can be overwhelmed by forward pressure. However, Lucindo is young and inexperienced at the UFC level, and Walker has a win over Miranda Maverick, showing she can pull off upsets. Lucindo should return to her grappling and grind out a decision, but it's a risky spot with low confidence.

Lucindo by decision
"I think lucindo has a pretty bright future in the UFC... prediction will still be Lucinda lucindo by decision but very be very wary about the spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Paul also picks Lucindo, impressed by her performance against Yazmin Jauregui despite the loss. He sees her as a top prospect with a bright future. He notes she proved she belongs at this level and has a lot of potential. Paul also says he won't bet this fight.

"I'll be picking lucindo as well I think she's got a lot of potential moving forward"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru picks Iasmin Lucindo, aided by a coin flip. He notes Brogan Walker's loss to Juliana Miller and age, while Lucindo had a good performance against Yasmine Urigui and a long win streak. He thinks Lucindo's technique is solid and that this should be a lock. He predicts a win for Lucindo.

"we're gonna go Lucindo... me and the coin think alike you know I mean genius at women's MMA predictions"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane picks Iasmin Lucindo (Silva), arguing that she has a clear grappling advantage and that it would be foolish for her not to try takedowns. He refuses to consider that she wouldn't attempt takedowns against Walker, who is a terrible grappler. Zane believes Lucindo's submissions off her back are a threat, and that Walker's lack of grappling knowledge will be exploited.

"I'm going to take her. I refuse to consider the idea that she would fight cash with it and be like, and just refuse to even try a take down."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane picks Lucindo confidently, noting that she is much more technical, fluid, and combination-savvy than Walker. He points out that Walker struggled against Juliana Miller, who is less skilled than Lucindo, and that Walker's inability to throw more than one strike without getting off balance will be exploited. He also mentions Lucindo's speed and power.

"Lucindo just seems frankly, just way too athletic."
LOSS vs Yazmin Jauregui
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yazmin Jauregui 0 86 of 218 39% 87 of 219 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Iasmin Lucindo 0 66 of 181 36% 66 of 181 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yazmin Jauregui 0 31 of 77 40% 31 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Iasmin Lucindo 0 25 of 60 41% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Yazmin Jauregui 0 30 of 69 43% 31 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Iasmin Lucindo 0 23 of 59 38% 23 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
3 Yazmin Jauregui 0 25 of 72 34% 25 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Iasmin Lucindo 0 18 of 62 29% 18 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yazmin Jauregui 86 of 218 39% 52 of 159 9 of 25 25 of 34 81 of 210 5 of 8 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 66 of 181 36% 42 of 148 15 of 22 9 of 11 64 of 179 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yazmin Jauregui 31 of 77 40% 16 of 55 2 of 4 13 of 18 29 of 72 2 of 5 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 25 of 60 41% 15 of 49 7 of 8 3 of 3 23 of 58 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Yazmin Jauregui 30 of 69 43% 17 of 48 5 of 11 8 of 10 27 of 66 3 of 3 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 23 of 59 38% 17 of 50 3 of 6 3 of 3 23 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yazmin Jauregui 25 of 72 34% 19 of 56 2 of 10 4 of 6 25 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 18 of 62 29% 10 of 49 5 of 8 3 of 5 18 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Angelo loves Yazmin Jauregui, citing her powerful striking, combinations, and solid takedown defense. He thinks the -240 odds are correct but is hesitant to bet due to both making their UFC debut. He expects the line to move and recommends jumping on it early.

Odds comment: -240 is correct, line will move
"i absolutely love yasmin in this fight obviously there's some questions around her takedown defense and her bjj off her back but i think i've watched enough tape to see just how solid that defense is"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Big Brady picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by first-round knockout. He describes Jauregui as a savage who comes forward, eats punches to land her own, and has power. He thinks Lucindo is not quite ready for the UFC level and that Jauregui's takedown defense and grappling will hold up. He expects Jauregui to overwhelm Lucindo and finish her in the first round.

first round knockout
"i think she finishes lucinda here i think she does in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Cody also leans toward Jauregui, calling her the right favorite but not wanting heavy investment. He notes Lucindo is very green and relies on getting the fight to the ground, while Jauregui has better striking and takedown defense. He considers this a pass due to the uncertainty.

"i don't know that i would want a ton of investment here but i think she is the right favorite"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Daniel Levi is unsure about this fight. He notes that Jauregui has a clear edge on the feet with power and aggression, while Lucindo has a grappling advantage. He says if the fight stays standing, Jauregui wins; if it goes to the mat, Lucindo wins. He picks Lucindo as a dog but with low confidence.

"I guess I'll go Lucindo because since I'm not obvious about the favorite I'll go with the dog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Yazmin Jauregui

The host picks Jauregui, noting she has solid power and good volume. He thinks she will eventually get the finish, and suggests playing her KO straight up at +250 or first round KO at +700. He believes Lucindo is a short-notice replacement but has experience, though he doesn't think it's a good matchup for her.

Jauregui by KO at +250; Jauregui round 1 KO at +700 (considering).
"i think eventually she'll get the finish i think the safer way to play is just play ko straight up which is still getting about plus 250"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Paul leans toward Jauregui, noting she is more well-rounded with good striking and footwork. He acknowledges Lucindo's wrestling and top game but thinks Jauregui can keep the fight standing and piece her up. However, he is not confident due to the low level of competition and both fighters being young and making debuts.

"i think she'll probably keep the fight standing for the most part stop the takedowns when need be and kind of piece her up from range"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

The host picks Yazmin Jauregui, citing her undefeated record and improvement against better competition. He notes she had more time to prepare for the fight and has momentum from a tournament win. However, he admits uncertainty about both fighters and wouldn't be surprised by an upset.

"i'm going to be going with yasmin jaurudjie"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Angelo loves Yazmin Jauregui, citing her powerful striking, combinations, and solid takedown defense. He thinks the -240 odds are correct but is hesitant to bet due to both making their UFC debut. He expects the line to move and recommends jumping on it early.

Odds comment: -240 is correct, line will move
"i absolutely love yasmin in this fight obviously there's some questions around her takedown defense and her bjj off her back but i think i've watched enough tape to see just how solid that defense is"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Big Brady picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by first-round knockout. He describes Jauregui as a savage who comes forward, eats punches to land her own, and has power. He thinks Lucindo is not quite ready for the UFC level and that Jauregui's takedown defense and grappling will hold up. He expects Jauregui to overwhelm Lucindo and finish her in the first round.

first round knockout
"i think she finishes lucinda here i think she does in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Cody also leans toward Jauregui, calling her the right favorite but not wanting heavy investment. He notes Lucindo is very green and relies on getting the fight to the ground, while Jauregui has better striking and takedown defense. He considers this a pass due to the uncertainty.

"i don't know that i would want a ton of investment here but i think she is the right favorite"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Daniel Levi is unsure about this fight. He notes that Jauregui has a clear edge on the feet with power and aggression, while Lucindo has a grappling advantage. He says if the fight stays standing, Jauregui wins; if it goes to the mat, Lucindo wins. He picks Lucindo as a dog but with low confidence.

"I guess I'll go Lucindo because since I'm not obvious about the favorite I'll go with the dog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Yazmin Jauregui

The host picks Jauregui, noting she has solid power and good volume. He thinks she will eventually get the finish, and suggests playing her KO straight up at +250 or first round KO at +700. He believes Lucindo is a short-notice replacement but has experience, though he doesn't think it's a good matchup for her.

Jauregui by KO at +250; Jauregui round 1 KO at +700 (considering).
"i think eventually she'll get the finish i think the safer way to play is just play ko straight up which is still getting about plus 250"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Paul leans toward Jauregui, noting she is more well-rounded with good striking and footwork. He acknowledges Lucindo's wrestling and top game but thinks Jauregui can keep the fight standing and piece her up. However, he is not confident due to the low level of competition and both fighters being young and making debuts.

"i think she'll probably keep the fight standing for the most part stop the takedowns when need be and kind of piece her up from range"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

The host picks Yazmin Jauregui, citing her undefeated record and improvement against better competition. He notes she had more time to prepare for the fight and has momentum from a tournament win. However, he admits uncertainty about both fighters and wouldn't be surprised by an upset.

"i'm going to be going with yasmin jaurudjie"