Amanda Lemos

Angelo picks Gillian Robertson but expresses nervousness. He acknowledges Robertson's poor takedowns and atrocious striking, but believes her relentless pressure and submission threats will cause Amanda Lemos to freeze. He also notes the smaller cage helps Robertson. He points out that Lemos has good takedown defense, having defended nine takedowns from Tatiana Suarez, but still thinks Robertson's volume will win out.

Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson to win by third-round submission. He likes her move to strawweight (5-1 record) and improved wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Lemos's age (38) and 64% takedown defense, and believes Robertson can get takedowns, control top position, and eventually submit her.

Cody picks Robertson but with caution. He highlights her improved wrestling and submission game under Dean Thomas, but worries about Lemos' takedown defense and power. He notes Robertson's striking is poor and if she can't get takedowns, she's in trouble. He advises not going too heavy on her.

Connor picks Robertson, citing that Lemos will engage in grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out, and Robertson's A-game is grappling. He compares it to Lemos's loss to Tatiana Suarez, where Lemos willingly clinched.

James picks Gillian Robertson to win inside the distance via ground and pound or submission. He highlights Robertson's relentless grappling and Lemos' tendency to regrapple and make poor decisions on the ground. He notes that Lemos has a striking advantage but expects Robertson to eventually get takedowns and finish. He suggests the fight not going to decision as a potential bet.

The host picks Lemos to win by knockout, believing her power and defensive grappling will be too much for Robertson. He expects Lemos to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually finishing Robertson. He notes that Robertson's lack of striking and physicality will be exposed, and that Lemos's experience against strong grapplers gives her the edge.

Paul picks Robertson confidently, citing her recent run, coaching from Dean Thomas, and improved wrestling. He believes she will get takedowns and control the fight. He notes Lemos has low volume and can be taken down, though he acknowledges the price is steep.

The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, despite her lack of striking power, because her grappling is consistent and Lemos has been out-grappled by top opponents. He thinks Robertson will get top position early and submit her in the second round, though he acknowledges Lemos could win if she stuffs a takedown and lands a big shot.

Angelo picks Tatiana, believing her wrestling will be too hard to consistently stop. He notes she is a dominant wrestler with almost five takedowns per 15 minutes, though her striking is just okay. He acknowledges Lemos has a ton of high-level experience and power, but thinks Tatiana's relentless pressure and ability to find a submission could be key. He mentions the -400 odds are tough to lay four units on someone coming off a loss, but still picks Tatiana.

Big Brady picks Suarez despite her poor last performance against Jandiroba, noting Lemos fared even worse against the same opponent. He highlights Lemos's inability to stuff takedowns and suspect submission defense. He predicts Suarez wins by second-round submission, though he has concerns about her cardio and striking defense.

The host considers this a horrible stylistic matchup for Lemos, expecting Suarez to land takedowns, work to a dominant position, and eventually secure a submission. This is a strong pick with high confidence.

Connor picks Lemos because she is a physical force who can hit hard and is strong in the clinch. He notes that Lucindo is raw and messy, relying on speed and counters, but Lemos has excellent timing and power. Connor worries about Lemos's tendency to wrestle, which could play into Lucindo's hands, but believes Lemos's strength and durability will carry her. He sees Lucindo as too young and raw for this step up.

Lucrative James picks Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lemos is a better striker but has clear grappling deficiencies, having been submitted before. He thinks Lucindo can win by submission or decision through grappling control. He mentions he cashed on Lucindo by submission before and sees value in that prop.

Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba because she will grind and get takedowns, neutralizing Amanda Lemos's striking. He notes that Lemos is the better mixed martial artist but cannot defend takedowns. He plans to wait for prop bets, especially the takedown line, and considers Jandiroba affordable at even money.

Cody picks Jandiroba, emphasizing her freakish strength, takedown ability, and durability. He notes Lemos has cardio issues and has been taken down repeatedly by lesser grapplers. He expects Jandiroba to bank rounds with top control as Lemos fades, though he admits the fight likely goes to decision and could be a weird judging outcome. He suggests live betting Jandiroba after Lemos wins early rounds.

Daniel Vreeland leans with Virna Jandiroba due to her world-class Jiu-Jitsu and unorthodox takedown entries, believing she can take down Amanda Lemos and possibly secure a submission early. He notes that Lemos has a significant power edge and could get a late knockout if Jandiroba gasses, but he trusts Jandiroba's early dominance. He also mentions that Lemos has shown vulnerability to submissions, referencing the standing arm triangle loss to Andrade.

Jandiroba is a -130 favorite. She has a smothering grappling style and excellent cardio, which should wear down Lemos in the later rounds. Lemos has power but questionable takedown defense and cardio. Jandiroba's chin has held up, and she can take Lemos down, take her back, and eventually find a submission in the third or fourth round. Lemos could finish early, but if she doesn't, Jandiroba will dominate.

Paul thinks Lemos is the better striker and can hang on the mat against Jandiroba, citing her durability in going five rounds with Zhang Weili and surviving takedowns from Mackenzie Dern. He acknowledges Jandiroba's grappling edge but believes Lemos can avoid submissions and win rounds with damage. He calls it close to a pick 'em fight but leans Lemos at plus money.

Angelo picks Amanda Lemos, citing her superior striking and takedown defense. He rants about Mackenzie Dern's poor wrestling and 14% takedown accuracy, despite her elite BJJ. He notes Lemos is coming off a bad loss but believes her takedown defense is more than enough to keep the fight standing. He calls the odds fantastic.

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern as a dog but with very low confidence. He notes Dern's inconsistency, looking great against Angela Hill but terrible against Jessica Andrade. He thinks if Dern gets the fight to the ground, she can submit Lemos, who has been tapped before. He says he won't bet this fight and is staying far away, but as a pick he goes with Dern by submission.

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Dern's durability and BJJ threat. He mentions that Lemos could get a knockout, but Dern has shown she can take bombs. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to close the show. He picks Dern moneyline without chasing props.

Daniel picks Amanda Lemos hard, despite being a fan of Mackenzie Dern's grappling style. He thinks Dern won't be able to get the fight to the ground due to Lemos' strength, good boxing, and takedown defense. He also cites Dern's short notice and Lemos' reach advantage. He believes Lemos should be a -200 favorite and is all in on her.

Daniel Vreeland does not make a clear pick, calling it a coin flip. He notes Lemos's power and leg kick potential but is concerned about her tendency to flop to her back, as seen against Zhang. He acknowledges Dern's elite BJJ but questions her wrestling and striking. He stays away from betting on this fight.

Jeff picks Amanda Lemos, calling it a good number. He notes that Dern struggles with her wrestling and striking, and doesn't look great on the feet. He points out that Lemos just fought for the belt and has a reach advantage. He thinks Lemos should be a -200 favorite or better, so -130 is a good price.

Lemos is a dangerous power puncher who can keep Dern at bay. Dern is inconsistent and unable to complete takedowns. Expects Lemos to find a knockout in the second round.

Paul picks Dern, citing her superior Jiu-Jitsu and improved striking. He notes Lemos' low volume and 55% takedown defense, which could allow Dern to get the fight to the ground. He highlights Dern's durability and cardio, and believes she can outwork Lemos on the feet or submit her. He sees value at plus money.

Angelo is very confident in Zhang Weili, believing she is head and shoulders above the division. He notes her improved wrestling and jiu-jitsu, impressive volume and cardio, and power. While Amanda Lemos has knockout power and good takedown defense, he thinks Weili can win everywhere and will keep the belt. He has her in a parlay with Marlon Vera.

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by third-round knockout, acknowledging Lemos is dangerous early. He notes Lemos has power and can finish early, but her cardio fades after the first round. Zhang is improving and can wrestle, and Brady expects her to weather the early storm and take over in the later rounds.

Cody views Zhang as a complete fighter with high-level striking, wrestling, and cardio, while Lemos has not faced top competition and struggled against Angela Hill. He expects Zhang to dominate and likely win by decision, though he acknowledges women's MMA can be unpredictable. He leans towards the fight going the distance.

Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili, believing she is one of the best athletes in the UFC and has shown tremendous improvement, especially in grappling after training with Henry Cejudo. He notes that Lemos is dangerous early with heavy hands and a guillotine, but her cardio fades after round two due to weight cuts. Levi expects Zhang to take the fight to the ground and possibly finish via submission or ground and pound. He is confident but acknowledges that the early stand-up exchanges will be a sweat for backers at -330.

Lucrative James picks Amanda Lemos as a value underdog, believing she hits like a truck and has a good chance of knocking out Zhang Weili. He acknowledges Zhang has more ways to win and better cardio, but at plus 250 he sees it as an easy system play. He advises against being greedy and sticking to the moneyline.

Zhang is well-rounded with power striking and strong wrestling. Lemos fades late and has been submitted before. Zhang will mix in takedowns and wear on Lemos, eventually finding a finish in the later rounds. The inside distance prop and under 3.5/4.5 rounds are good options.

Angelo picks Rodriguez, expecting her volume to be the difference. He notes she needs to avoid Lemos's power and stay technical, following the blueprint Angela Hill almost used. He acknowledges Lemos is dangerous with 7 stoppage wins and considers a no-action bet on Lemos by stoppage.

Big Brady cites Lemos's cardio concerns in a five-round fight, noting she has never gone past three rounds. He believes Rodriguez has improved takedown defense and better cardio, and will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts Rodriguez will finish a tired Lemos in the third or fourth round by knockout.

Cody picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her recent run as a viable title challenger, experience in five-round fights, and superior striking volume and power. He notes her takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground, as seen against MacKenzie Dern. He is not sold on Amanda Lemos, pointing to her age, lack of a big win, and close split decision against Angela Hill. He predicts Rodriguez wins by decision, but is not running to the book to bet at the current line.

Daniel Levi leans Marina Rodriguez, citing her durability and ability to pull away in later rounds (third, fourth, fifth) as Lemos fades. He notes Rodriguez's slow starts and vulnerability to takedowns, as she struggles to get up from bottom, but believes her volume and cardio advantage will overcome Lemos's early power. He mentions the line (-210) is a bit wide and does not have a bet on this fight.

The host believes Rodriguez's durability, cardio, and disciplined striking will overcome Lemos's early power. He notes Lemos fades after round one and telegraphs her shots, while Rodriguez has experience going five rounds. He predicts a late TKO (round 5) as Lemos fades, but also sees decision as likely.

Paul agrees with Cody's points but struggles with the -220 price, which implies nearly 69% win probability. He thinks 7-3 Rodriguez is reasonable but not a betting opportunity. He does not like the decision prop because he questions Lemos's cardio in five rounds, noting she has been finished or finished early in previous five-round fights. He is considering the under on total rounds, possibly getting plus money, and will wait for weigh-ins to see if Lemos has a bad weight cut. He picks Rodriguez for the show but will not attack the -220 line.

Angelo picks Amanda Lemos, citing her power, takedown defense, and volume. He believes Waterson's stick-and-move style won't be enough, as she failed against Marina Rodriguez. He suggests Lemos is safe for parlays.

Big Brady picks Amanda Lemos to win by decision. He notes that Lemos is the biggest favorite on the card and should land the harder shots with higher volume. He expresses concern about Lemos's cardio, as she has slowed down in past fights, but thinks she can outwork Waterson over three rounds. He also mentions that if the fight is at flyweight, it favors Lemos even more. He does not recommend betting at -300 odds.

Cody sees Waterson as a clear underdog value, noting she has never been knocked out and has gone the distance with elite competition. He points out that Lemos' wins are over lower-level opponents and that Waterson's mobility and conditioning will allow her to outpoint Lemos. He also mentions Waterson's recent shape from The Challenge and her plus 270 price.

Daniel Levi leans Amanda Lemos but is not confident due to the high price. He notes Lemos has power that can overcome Waterson's technique, but Waterson has opportunistic submissions and cardio advantages late. He sees Lemos winning early via impact, but considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the heavy chalk.

Paul argues that Lemos' competition has been weak and that Waterson has fought a higher level of opposition, including five-round fights. He notes Waterson's durability and ability to make fights close, and believes the fight will go to decision with Waterson winning a close one. He also mentions that Lemos' power is her only real threat, but Waterson's chin and cardio should hold up.

Angelo picks Jessica Andrade to bully Amanda Lemos and grind out a dominant decision. He notes Andrade is a proven entity who continues to pass tests, while Lemos should have lost to Angela Hill. He says Andrade will push forward, get takedowns, stand in Lemos' face, and grind out a win. He calls the odds fair (Andrade almost 2-1 favorite).

Big Brady picks Jéssica Andrade to win, citing her superior level of competition and relentless pressure. He notes that Andrade has fought champions like Valentina Shevchenko, Rose Namajunas, and Zhang Weili, while Lemos has faced lower-tier opponents. He believes Lemos is dangerous early but fades, and Andrade's cardio and pressure will overwhelm her. He predicts a finish in the third round as Lemos slows down.

Cody sees value in Andrade at -190, noting her experience, power, and wrestling. He believes she wins at least 70% of the time, which would imply a -233 line. He mentions the weigh-in as a concern but thinks Andrade's only losses are to elite fighters. He plans to hedge if needed.

The host picks Jéssica Andrade to win, noting that the moneyline is very friendly. He mentions that Andrade is a banger and expects a great fight. He also includes Andrade in a parlay with Guida and Barriault, showing confidence in her victory.

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Andrade's experience, toughness, and cardio edge. He notes Lemos' limitations shown against Angela Hill, where she faded after the first round. He believes Andrade's grappling and pressure will wear on Lemos over five rounds.

Angelo picks Amanda Lemos, believing she is the real deal and that this fight is set up to showcase her. He notes Lemos has power, wrestling, and BJJ, and can win anywhere. He mentions a potential plus 3.5 round bet on Angela Hill if she can survive early and steal a third round, but he doesn't commit to it. He thinks Lemos will win early and put up solid points in DFS.

Big Brady picks Amanda Lemos by decision, despite concerns about her level of competition and cardio. He notes Hill has never been knocked out and has fought tougher competition. He expects Lemos to win the first two rounds clearly but possibly slow down in the third. He doesn't understand the wide line but thinks Lemos passes the test.

Cody is surprised by the line, calling Lemos a -350 favorite despite no notable wins. He notes Lemos's striking is one-dimensional (power leg kick, right hand) and she tires when extended. Hill has high volume, good cardio, and a durable chin. Cody thinks the fight will likely go to decision and Hill's experience and output give her a good chance. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation and leans Hill.

Daniel Levi picks Amanda Lemos confidently, calling her one of the locks of the night. He highlights Lemos's power, noting she has four knockdowns since 2020 while Hill has only three in her entire UFC career. Levi criticizes Hill's lack of improvement, tendency to gas, and questionable decision wins. He believes Lemos's southpaw stance, reach, youth, and explosive style will be too much for Hill, predicting a dominant decision with a knockdown or a late finish.

Jacob picks Amanda Lemos, calling her the Conor McGregor of the women's 115 division due to her sneaky power. He thinks Lemos will likely get a first-round knockout, but notes that if Hill survives the first round, she has a chance because Lemos may gas. Jacob suggests live betting on Hill if she survives the first round, as her odds could balloon. He plans to play Lemos all the way.

The host leans towards Lemos by decision, noting that Hill is difficult to finish but Lemos should land the more damaging shots. He thinks the fight goes the distance and likes the decision prop at +105. He is not confident enough to lay -300 on the moneyline.

Paul agrees the line is wide and thinks Hill by decision at +500 is a good play. He expects Lemos to come out hot and try to finish early, but if she doesn't, Hill's cardio and volume will take over. Paul plans to watch live and possibly bet Hill live if Lemos slows down.

Cody is confident in Amanda Lemos, but he prefers prop bets over the moneyline. He has placed small bets on Lemos inside the distance and by KO, believing her striking and improved grappling will overwhelm Montserrat Ruiz, who is a one-trick pony with a head-and-arm toss. He thinks Ruiz's limited skills won't work against Lemos.

Big Brady picks Amanda Lemos, citing her high volume striking (nearly 6 significant strikes per minute) and superior speed. He notes Souza is low volume and unimpressive on tape. He acknowledges both are black belts but favors Lemos on the feet and on top. He predicts a decision win because Souza is durable and has never been finished.

Daniel picks Amanda Lemos, citing her size advantage from dropping two weight classes and her pressure style. He acknowledges Livinha Souza's jiu-jitsu threat but believes Lemos' speed and power will be too much, though he notes potential gas tank issues due to the weight cut.

Lemos has better striking and power, and her cardio holds up well. Souza slows down in later rounds and has questionable durability. The host expects Lemos to keep the fight on the feet and pick Souza apart, predicting a third-round TKO.

Big Brady picks Mizuki Inoue to win by decision. He questions Amanda Lemos' cardio, noting she looked tired in the Leslie Smith fight and was finished in the second round. Inoue has never been finished in 19 fights, has a good submission game, and survived five rounds against Jana Roba. Brady believes if Inoue can survive the first round, she will take over in the second and third, possibly getting a late finish.

Daniel Levi picks Mizuki Inoue to win a close decision. He notes Inoue has underrated boxing, high volume, and durability, and that she trains with top guys in New York. Levi acknowledges Lemos's power and improved cardio after dropping two weight classes, but believes Inoue's experience and pace will overwhelm Lemos in the later rounds. He mentions that Lemos's win over Granger was a split decision that should have been a clear loss, and that Inoue's pressure will be key.

Inoue is an efficient in-and-out striker with good footwork and striking defense. Lemos has power but questionable cardio, having gassed in her UFC debut. Inoue can survive the first round and then take over as Lemos fades. Inoue's submission defense is also solid. Expect Inoue to win a decision.