UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz

Angelo picks Dominick Cruz but is on the fence. He notes Cruz's movement and striking defense make him hard to hit, and he can win by mixing in takedowns. However, Vera has devastating power and an iron chin, and Cruz may not be able to avoid damage for five rounds. Angelo compares to the Frankie Edgar fight where Edgar outstruck Vera and got takedowns but still got knocked out. He might change his pick.

Big Brady picks Marlon Vera to win by late knockout, likely in the fourth round. He notes that Vera is a slow starter but becomes a savage in the championship rounds, as seen against Rob Font. Cruz is 37, with declining durability and speed, and was dropped in his last fight. Vera lands the harder shots and has knockdown power. Brady expects Vera to eventually land something big and finish Cruz.

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Marlon Vera. He emphasizes Vera's durability and tenacity in five-round fights, noting he often loses the first round but builds momentum. Cody believes Vera's leg kicks will stifle Cruz's movement and that judges favor damage over volume. He also suggests live betting Vera after he loses the first round.

Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera, emphasizing that Vera is a slow starter but excels in championship rounds. He notes Vera's iron chin, finishing ability (most finishes in bantamweight history), and the importance of calf kicks to slow Cruz's movement. Levi believes Cruz will have early success but fade as the fight progresses, and Vera will either finish or win a clear decision. He also mentions that Vera's boxing has improved under Jason Parillo.

The host is emphatic about Cruz, citing his wrestling advantage and high fight IQ. He notes that Cruz has landed 55 takedowns at a 43% clip since his WEC days, while Vera is not known for takedown defense. He believes people are overlooking Cruz's grappling and that the fight won't be a 25-minute kickboxing match. He also mentions Cruz's movement and ability to roll with kicks, referencing the Pedro Munoz fight where Cruz survived heavy leg kicks. He is confident that at plus money, Cruz is the value play.

Paul picks Marlon Vera, noting that while Cruz may out-volume him early, Vera lands the more impactful strikes. He points out that Cruz has been knocked down in his last four fights and is getting older. Paul thinks Vera's leg kicks will slow Cruz's mobility, and he prefers to bet Vera live after round one or two rather than at the -230 moneyline.

The host picks Marlon Vera by fourth-round submission (d'arce choke). He expects Cruz to win the first two rounds but fade as Vera's leg kicks and pressure accumulate. He predicts Vera will hurt Cruz, sprawl on a takedown, and choke him out. He emphasizes Vera's size and reach advantages, and notes Cruz's injury history and lack of power compared to other Vera opponents.

Angelo picks David Onama due to his power and technical striking. He notes Landwehr is a live underdog with forward pressure but if Onama gets room, he will get the knockout. Onama is also a knockout kings pick.

Big Brady picks David Onama to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Onama has a 100% finish rate and is the more dangerous striker with more power. Landwehr has good takedown defense (87%) but is hittable and has been knocked out twice in the UFC. Brady expects a stand-up war where Onama lands the bigger shots and finishes Landwehr.

Cody picks David Onama, acknowledging his bias for Landwehr but reasoning that Onama's power and athleticism will catch Landwehr coming forward. He notes Landwehr's durability issues and that Onama is getting more comfortable in the UFC. Cody believes Onama will clip Landwehr at some point.

Daniel Levi picks Nate Landwehr as a plus-265 underdog, acknowledging the risk of Onama's African power and raw talent. He believes Landwehr can win if he fights disciplined with his hands up, uses his experience, and drags Onama into deep waters. Levi notes that Onama is still green and that Landwehr showed improved technique in his last fight. However, he admits Landwehr could get knocked out early.

The host picks Landwehr as the biggest upset on the card based on odds. He notes Landwehr's takedowns, control time, and output, and believes he can pull it off at +290. He also mentions that Landwehr in front of a full crowd is very live.

Paul picks David Onama by TKO, citing Onama's power and reach advantage. He notes that Landwehr has been finished in the first round twice and tends to run into strikes. Paul likes Onama by TKO at +175 as a way to avoid the -315 moneyline.

The host picks David Onama by first-round TKO, comparing the fight to Onama's win over Gabriel Benítez. He notes Landwehr's tendency to get hit early and lack of head movement, and believes Onama's crisp shots will land. He initially had high confidence but lowered it after considering Landwehr's crowd energy, though he still picks Onama.

Angelo loves Yazmin Jauregui, citing her powerful striking, combinations, and solid takedown defense. He thinks the -240 odds are correct but is hesitant to bet due to both making their UFC debut. He expects the line to move and recommends jumping on it early.

Big Brady picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by first-round knockout. He describes Jauregui as a savage who comes forward, eats punches to land her own, and has power. He thinks Lucindo is not quite ready for the UFC level and that Jauregui's takedown defense and grappling will hold up. He expects Jauregui to overwhelm Lucindo and finish her in the first round.

Cody also leans toward Jauregui, calling her the right favorite but not wanting heavy investment. He notes Lucindo is very green and relies on getting the fight to the ground, while Jauregui has better striking and takedown defense. He considers this a pass due to the uncertainty.

Daniel Levi is unsure about this fight. He notes that Jauregui has a clear edge on the feet with power and aggression, while Lucindo has a grappling advantage. He says if the fight stays standing, Jauregui wins; if it goes to the mat, Lucindo wins. He picks Lucindo as a dog but with low confidence.

The host picks Jauregui, noting she has solid power and good volume. He thinks she will eventually get the finish, and suggests playing her KO straight up at +250 or first round KO at +700. He believes Lucindo is a short-notice replacement but has experience, though he doesn't think it's a good matchup for her.

Paul leans toward Jauregui, noting she is more well-rounded with good striking and footwork. He acknowledges Lucindo's wrestling and top game but thinks Jauregui can keep the fight standing and piece her up. However, he is not confident due to the low level of competition and both fighters being young and making debuts.

The host picks Yazmin Jauregui, citing her undefeated record and improvement against better competition. He notes she had more time to prepare for the fight and has momentum from a tournament win. However, he admits uncertainty about both fighters and wouldn't be surprised by an upset.

Angelo picks Azamat Murzakanov, citing his power and wrestling credentials. He notes Devin Clark has chin issues and Murzakanov is the more dangerous fighter. He likes the value at -170, believing the line should be closer to -200.

Big Brady picks Azamat Murzakanov to knock out Devin Clark early, likely in the first round. He notes that Murzakanov has power that carries into later rounds, as shown in his last fight. Clark has poor striking defense (46%) and has been finished in six of seven losses. Murzakanov is a much better striker and has dangerous ground and pound. Brady expects a quick finish.

Cody picks Murzakanov by knockout, noting he liked him coming into the TUF fight and cashed his flying knee finish. He thinks the line is moving toward Clark, so he may wait for a better price. Cody believes Murzakanov has enough grappling to keep the fight standing and will land a knockout.

Daniel Levi picks Azamat Murzakanov, dismissing the narrative that his last win was a fluke. He explains that Murzakanov was winning on two scorecards before the finish and that his speed and power will be too much for Devin Clark. Levi notes that Clark tends to blitz with his chin up and that Murzakanov has knockout power, predicting a KO win.

The host expects an early finish from Murzakanov, noting his big power but not much volume. He includes Murzakanov in his totals parlay under 1.5 rounds, expecting a first-round KO.

Paul picks Murzakanov by knockout in round two. He criticizes Clark's durability and low volume, noting Clark has been knocked out before and relies on pressing opponents against the cage. Paul believes Murzakanov has heavier hands and will clip Clark with something like a flying knee.

The host picks Azamat Murzakanov, recalling his previous knockout of Devin Clark in a regional tournament. He trusts Murzakanov's stand-up and grappling, and believes Clark has taken too much damage over his career. He expects a first-round TKO in a firefight, though he acknowledges Clark's power makes it risky.

Angelo switched his pick from Lipski to Cachoeira due to Lipski's weight cut issues and medical problems. He notes Cachoeira is the more dangerous fighter with heavy pressure and power, and Lipski may not be at 100% after cutting weight twice in a short period.

Big Brady picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) to win by first-round submission. He notes that Cachoeira absorbs an absurd 7.91 significant strikes per minute with 45% striking defense, calling her the definition of blocking punches with her face. Lipski hits hard and has a good submission game, and Cachoeira has been submitted twice in the UFC. Brady believes Lipski will take the fight down and submit her easily in the first round.

Cody picks Lipski, criticizing Cachoeira's technique and durability. He notes Cachoeira missed weight and had lingering COVID symptoms, which are bad signs. Cody thinks Lipski is better standing and in the clinch, and he cannot bet Cachoeira.

Paul picks Cachoeira, having already bet her at +150 and a round three prop at 20-1. He acknowledges she missed weight and had COVID issues but still believes she can win. Paul is sticking with his bet despite the line moving against him.

The host picks Ariane Lipski (Ariane da Silva) over Priscila Cachoeira, citing Cachoeira's weak UFC wins and losses to fighters like Molly McCann and Luana Carolina. He expects Lipski to take the fight to the ground and secure a submission in the first or second round, referencing Lipski's previous dominant submission win over Luana Carolina who also beat Cachoeira.

Angelo is extremely confident in Bruno Silva, citing his striking, BJJ, and toughness. He notes Meerschaert's only path is to get beaten up and pull off a submission, but Silva has solid BJJ to defend. Angelo has a 2-unit moneyline bet and will use Silva in knockout kings.

Big Brady picks Bruno Silva to win by first-round knockout. He calls Silva a black belt in ground and pound with tremendous power. Meerschaert is slow, hittable, and unlikely to get the fight to the mat. Silva's submission defense has improved, and Brady sees this as a terrible matchup for Meerschaert. He expects Silva to put him out cold in the first round.

Cody picks Bruno Silva by KO, calling him a murderous power puncher. He notes Meerschaert's chin has been compromised and that Silva carries power through all three rounds. Cody doubts Meerschaert can take Silva down early, as he was out-wrestled by Dustin Stoltzfus.

Daniel Levi picks Bruno Silva, citing Silva's devastating power, durability, and improved takedown defense. He notes that Silva went three hard rounds with Alex Pereira and has knockout wins over Alexander Shlemenko and Artem Frolov. Levi believes Silva's power and pressure will be too much for Meerschaert, and he predicts a first-round knockout. He acknowledges Meerschaert's submission threat but thinks Silva will avoid it.

The host picks Bruno Silva, expecting an early finish. He mentions that Meerschaert could be dangerous if it goes to the ground, but he would rather take violence in that spot. He includes Silva in his totals parlay under 1.5 rounds.

Paul picks Bruno Silva by knockout, noting Silva's power and ability to keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Meerschaert's submission threat but thinks Silva's wrestling defense is adequate. Paul warns that Meerschaert is the king of snatching submissions after getting beaten up.

The host picks Bruno Silva, calling it a lock. He expects Silva to survive Meerschaert's early takedown attempts, work his way up, and hurt him on the feet, leading to a third-round TKO. He notes Silva's good gas tank and ability to stuff takedowns, as seen in the Andrew Sanchez fight, and criticizes Meerschaert's recent performances.

Angelo is extremely confident in Loopy Godinez, calling her a bully who will dominate Angela Hill. He notes Hill's best days are behind her and that she struggles against wrestlers with power. Angelo plans to bet the moneyline and the takedown prop on Godinez, and will use her in daily fantasy as well.

Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by decision. He notes that Godinez is a phenomenal wrestler who will close the distance and grind on Hill. Hill has improved takedown defense but was taken down three times by Verna Jandiroba. Godinez's striking is solid, but Brady expects her to rely on wrestling to wear Hill down and win a decision.

Cody picks Godinez by decision, agreeing with Paul. He notes Hill's takedown defense has regressed and that Godinez will pursue takedowns for 15 minutes. Cody cautions that Godinez's takedown numbers came against lower-level opponents, but still expects a grinding decision win.

Daniel Levi picks Loopy Godinez, citing her clear edge on the mat. He notes that if Godinez uses her wrestling and grinds out a decision, she will win. However, he is not in a rush to lay -300 odds on her and acknowledges that if she stands and bangs with Hill, it could be close.

The host feels pretty strong about Godinez. He mentions that he could see her getting a finish on the mat, but also thinks the fight could go over 2.5 rounds. He includes her in his totals parlay as the sketchiest leg, but still picks her to win.

Paul picks Godinez by decision, noting her takedown-heavy game plan and Hill's improved but still vulnerable takedown defense. He thinks Godinez will get 5-6 takedowns and control the fight. Paul prefers the decision prop at -150 to avoid the -300 moneyline.

The host picks Loopy Godinez, expecting her to mix takedowns with striking and outwork Angela Hill. He notes Hill's decent takedown defense but believes Godinez's options and recent form at strawweight (wins over Loma Lookboonmee and Ariane Carnelossi) will lead to a 30-27 decision. He dismisses Hill's chances entirely.

Angelo picks Martin Buday due to his power, noting that Brzeski doesn't like getting hit and may cower. However, he doesn't like the odds at 2-to-1, so he won't bet the moneyline but will use Buday in knockout kings daily fantasy.

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by second-round finish. He notes that Brzeski has terrible cardio, gassing within the first two minutes, and is undersized. Buday uses his size well, pushing opponents against the cage and wearing them down. Brady expects Buday to eventually finish Brzeski, possibly by knockout or ground and pound.

Cody picks Martin Buday, citing his size advantage (30+ lbs) and clinch-heavy style. He notes Brzeski is smaller, may not be on PEDs anymore, and has a limited gas tank. Cody expects Buday to wear him down and finish late in the second or third round.

Daniel Levi picks Martin Buday, describing him as a real heavyweight who imposes his size and will. He notes that Buday weighs 265 pounds and uses brutal knees and elbows against the fence. In contrast, Brzeski is lighter and has a failed drug test, so Levi expects Buday to dominate.

The host likes Buday, mentioning he has power and volume. He also notes that Brzeski doesn't look good on the skills. He mentions a bet on Buday inside the distance at -110 and round two at +550.

Paul picks Martin Buday, agreeing with Cody's analysis. He notes the over 1.5 rounds line has moved to -175, but he prefers to look for an over 2.5 or fight goes to decision prop, as Buday tends to grind out wins late.

The host picks Martin Buday, citing a 35-pound weight advantage and expecting him to wear out Łukasz Brzeski against the cage for a third-round TKO. He notes Brzeski's positive steroid test and questions his technique, suggesting he looked better on regional shows than on the Contender Series.

Angelo picks Nina Nunes as an underdog, citing Calvillo's decline after the Andrade loss and her quitting on the stool. He believes Nunes is more consistent, tough, and will not break. He notes Calvillo is the more talented fighter but has lost her edge.

Big Brady hesitantly picks Nina Nunes to win by decision. He notes that both fighters are on losing streaks and have question marks: Nunes is 36, coming off a layoff and a loss, while Calvillo is 35, on a three-fight skid, and seems distracted. Stylistically, Nunes has better takedown defense and striking. Brady says he would never bet on this fight but picks Nunes to stuff takedowns and win on the feet.

Cody picks Nina Nunes, citing red flags on both sides but favoring Nunes' striking advantage and improved grappling camp with Amanda Nunes. He notes Calvillo's recent lack of wrestling and poor durability. Cody thinks Nunes can scramble back to her feet and win on the feet.

Daniel Levi passes on this fight, noting that both fighters are in uncertain form. He says Cynthia Calvillo has been quitting on the stool and Nina Nunes had a baby and COVID. He cannot confidently pick a winner.

The host mentions Nunes as an underdog he likes but wants nothing to do with that fight, so he does not make a pick. He does not provide any analysis or reasoning for either fighter.

Paul leans toward Nina Nunes as an underdog. He notes that Calvillo hasn't dominated with wrestling at 125 lbs and that if the fight stays standing, Nunes wins. He is considering a shot on the dog, citing Calvillo's recent poor performances and lack of desire.

The host picks Cynthia Calvillo, questioning Nina Nunes's focus and commitment. He notes Nunes's easy loss to Mackenzie Dern and believes Calvillo's grappling and recent competition level will lead to a 29-28 decision. He expects Calvillo to pull ahead after a tough first round.

Angelo picks Gabriel Benítez, citing his technical kickboxing, speed, and better grappling. He notes Ontiveros has chin issues and low-level competition. Benítez is a safe parlay piece despite being a big favorite.

Big Brady picks Gabriel Benítez to win by first-round knockout. He calls Ontiveros the least durable fighter in the UFC, noting he has been finished eight times and has quit in fights. Benítez has power and durability, though his chin is questionable. Brady expects a stand-up war where Benítez lands a big shot early, possibly a body kick, and finishes Ontiveros.

Cody picks Benítez, calling Ontiveros a 'never was' and noting Benítez's experience and leg kicks. He acknowledges Benítez's durability may be fading but believes Ontiveros' chin is completely gone. Cody thinks Benítez will land clean and finish him early.

Daniel Levi picks Gabriel Benítez, but with caution. He notes that Benítez should win easily due to his experience and heart, but he is coming off a brutal knockout loss. Ontiveros has a puncher's chance in the first two minutes, but if he doesn't land, Benítez will break him down. Levi is not rushing to bet on Benítez at these odds.

The host is high on Ontiveros as a dog, expecting a first-round KO. He mentions that he wants to bet 'fight doesn't go to decision' and under 1.5 rounds, but notes the line is juiced to -240. He also mentions a possible bet on Ontiveros round one at +800. He calls Ontiveros his 'dog of the card' and believes he gets the KO.

Paul picks Benítez, expecting a first-round knockout. He notes Ontiveros has been knocked out 8-9 times and is made of glass. Paul is shocked the under 1.5 rounds is -240, but still thinks Benítez will smash him. He also likes Benítez over 104.5 fantasy points on PrizePicks.

The host picks Gabriel Benítez, expecting him to survive an early onslaught and secure a late second-round TKO against the cage. He notes Ontiveros's loss to Steve Garcia Jr. as a red flag and believes Benítez can hold the gate one more time. He mentions Ontiveros as a good underdog for a first-round KO bet but ultimately sides with Benítez's experience.

Angelo picks Ode' Osbourne, citing his power, range, and finishing ability at 125 pounds. He notes Tyson Nam is almost 40, has been inactive, and relies too much on power. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Osbourne at -220 and recommends it to premium members.

Big Brady picks Ode' Osbourne to win by decision. He notes that Tyson Nam is 38 years old, almost 39, and has been inactive for a year and a half. Nam is a heavy hitter but throws low volume (3.64 strikes per minute) and has poor accuracy. Osbourne is more active, has power, and good submission defense. Brady expects Osbourne to outwork Nam and win a decision.

Cody picks Osbourne by decision, criticizing Nam's low volume and reliance on power. He notes Nam hasn't fought in two years and is 38. Cody believes Osbourne's reach and speed will allow him to pick Nam apart, and Nam won't land a knockout shot.

Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, citing his length, unorthodox striking, and improved game. He notes that Tyson Nam is knockout-dependent with low volume, and while Nam has power, Osbourne should win a decision unless he gets caught. Levi expects Osbourne to get his hand raised.

The host picks Nam as the best underdog he didn't bet straight up. He thinks Nam's power could clip Osbourne late, especially in the third round when Osbourne slows down. He notes Nam is 38 but power is the last thing to go. He only put a small bet on Nam round three at +2200, indicating low confidence in the moneyline.

Paul picks Osbourne by decision at +240. He notes Nam is 38 and slow, while Osbourne is faster with a reach advantage. Paul thinks Osbourne will use his jab and volume to outpoint Nam, who is reluctant to let his hands go. He also likes Osbourne over 55.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

The host picks Ode' Osbourne by first-round KO, calling it a logical bet. He notes Osbourne's youth and physicality advantages over the 38-year-old Tyson Nam, including a four-inch reach advantage. He compares their similar wins over common opponents and believes Osbourne's improvements will be decisive.

Angelo picks Josh Quinlan because of his dangerous striking and power, noting that if Quinlan can defend takedowns he will get a knockout. He acknowledges Jason Witt's wrestling is a threat but questions Witt's chin, which makes him vulnerable. Angelo also mentions he hammered a prop bet on Witt to have more takedowns at -325, but that line has been removed.

Big Brady picks Josh Quinlan to knock out Jason Witt. He notes that all eight of Witt's losses are inside the distance, with six knockouts, and his cardio is poor. Quinlan is a powerful striker who should land something big as Witt slows down. Brady acknowledges the sketchy PED history but sticks with the knockout prediction.

Cody picks Quinlan, though he is more nervous due to the catchweight and Quinlan's UFC debut. He notes Witt's wrestling advantage but believes Quinlan's power will eventually land. Cody is not switching his pick from last week.

The host mentions Witt as a possible underdog with control time and takedowns, but does not explicitly bet him. He lists him among underdogs that could score well if they win, but does not express strong confidence.

Paul picks Quinlan by first-round knockout, noting Witt's poor chin. He mentions Quinlan's power and that the catchweight of 180 lbs might help Witt, but he still expects Quinlan to win early. Paul also likes Quinlan over 95.5 fantasy points on PrizePicks.

The host picks Josh Quinlan, noting his steroid use (M3 metabolite) as an advantage and his undefeated prospect status. He expects a first-round KO victory over Jason Witt, who has shown chin issues. The host dismisses USADA's clearance, believing Quinlan still has the substance in his system.

Angelo picks Da'Mon Blackshear despite it being short notice, citing his athleticism, speed, and power. He notes that Zalal is tough to finish and has great defense, but believes Blackshear can win if his conditioning holds up and he can defend takedowns. However, Angelo is not betting on this fight due to the short notice uncertainty.

Big Brady leans toward Youssef Zalal to win by decision. He notes that Zalal has had a year off and is dropping to bantamweight, which could be beneficial. Zalal impressed in his last fight against Sean Woodson, showing good striking and wrestling. Blackshear is tough with good grappling, but Brady thinks Zalal is a little better overall and should win a decision.

Cody picks Blackshear as an underdog, citing Zalal's low output and reliance on wrestling. He notes Blackshear is physically strong, has excellent cardio, and has submitted several prospects. Cody thinks Blackshear will stuff takedowns and break Zalal down.

Daniel Levi leans Youssef Zalal, citing his experience inside the UFC and his back being against the wall. He notes that Zalal has paid his dues and has a solid grappling game. However, he acknowledges Blackshear's athleticism and unorthodox style, and that Blackshear could make big leaps. Levi predicts a split decision for Zalal.

The host includes Blackshear in his totals parlay, betting over 2.5 rounds. He notes that Blackshear has never been finished in his professional MMA career, so he expects the fight to go the distance or at least past 2.5 rounds.

Paul leans toward Zalal, noting his youth and experience. He is interested in live betting to see if Zalal can get takedowns early. Paul is hesitant because Zalal has struggled against stronger grapplers, but he thinks Zalal's game plan could be to win rounds.

The host picks Youssef Zalal, acknowledging Blackshear is a decent underdog but trusting Zalal's youth (25) and improvements after time off. He notes Zalal's close fights with tough opponents and believes he can avoid being finished. The host cites Blackshear's losses to composed fighters like Pat Sabatini and Chris Moutinho as a pattern.