Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling	0	46 of 89	51%	220 of 293	6 of 11	54%	1	0	13:49
Youssef Zalal	0	35 of 65	53%	61 of 97	0 of 0	---	1	0	3:59

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Aljamain Sterling	0	8 of 24	33%	15 of 31	1 of 2	50%	0	0	2:19
Youssef Zalal	0	4 of 16	25%	17 of 33	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
2	Aljamain Sterling	0	15 of 29	51%	67 of 88	1 of 3	33%	0	0	2:25
Youssef Zalal	0	15 of 23	65%	16 of 24	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
3	Aljamain Sterling	0	2 of 3	66%	11 of 14	2 of 2	100%	0	0	0:47
Youssef Zalal	0	3 of 4	75%	4 of 6	0 of 0	---	1	0	3:48
4	Aljamain Sterling	0	16 of 22	72%	81 of 101	1 of 2	50%	1	0	4:16
Youssef Zalal	0	3 of 4	75%	3 of 4	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:11
5	Aljamain Sterling	0	5 of 11	45%	46 of 59	1 of 2	50%	0	0	4:02
Youssef Zalal	0	10 of 18	55%	21 of 30	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aljamain Sterling	46 of 89	51%	25 of 56	12 of 16	9 of 17	25 of 59	15 of 22	6 of 8
Youssef Zalal	35 of 65	53%	25 of 51	6 of 7	4 of 7	32 of 62	3 of 3	0 of 0

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aljamain Sterling	8 of 24	33%	5 of 14	2 of 3	1 of 7	5 of 19	0 of 1	3 of 4
Youssef Zalal	4 of 16	25%	3 of 11	0 of 1	1 of 4	4 of 16	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	15 of 29	51%	6 of 17	5 of 6	4 of 6	10 of 23	5 of 6	0 of 0
Youssef Zalal	15 of 23	65%	11 of 19	2 of 2	2 of 2	15 of 23	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Aljamain Sterling	2 of 3	66%	1 of 2	1 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 2	0 of 0
Youssef Zalal	3 of 4	75%	2 of 3	0 of 0	1 of 1	3 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Aljamain Sterling	16 of 22	72%	9 of 13	4 of 6	3 of 3	6 of 9	8 of 11	2 of 2
Youssef Zalal	3 of 4	75%	1 of 2	2 of 2	0 of 0	1 of 2	2 of 2	0 of 0
5	Aljamain Sterling	5 of 11	45%	4 of 10	0 of 0	1 of 1	3 of 7	1 of 2	1 of 2
Youssef Zalal	10 of 18	55%	8 of 16	2 of 2	0 of 0	9 of 17	1 of 1	0 of 0

Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zalal (-160); Sterling (+135)

Round 1
Say what we will about UFC card structure and matchmaking as of late, Sterling (25-5, 17-5 UFC) vs. Zalal (18-5-1, 8-3-1 UFC) is a dope matchup. We’ll let them do the talking from here, as referee Herb Dean handles the particulars and draws out a glove touch. It’s time for a featherweight main event.
The two bounce towards and measure one another, with Sterling the one advancing and throwing the majority of the offense early on. Zalal counters with a sharp left hand, and he keeps his jab outstretched. Sterling offers up a number of kicks, missing on several of them. He catches up to “The Moroccan Devil” with a reaching right hand, but it is one-and-done. Sterling circles from side to side while Zalal aims jabs at him, and he shoots in for a single and lifts one of his foe’s legs in the air.
Sterling transitions to a body lock, and when he does not get as Zalal circles out, Sterling trips him up on the way out. Zalal gathers himself easily enough and is about to leap at Sterling with a knee, but Sterling kicks his plant leg out from beneath him to race on top and establish top control. Sterling advances to half guard fairly comfortably while Zalal bops him in either side of the head with his free left fist, and he offers a few elbows off his back as well. Zalal keeps attacking until he can suddenly throw his legs up for a potential armbar. Sterling sits up and takes a breath to calm himself, not twisting or wriggling to put himself further in danger. The former champ works out of it and repositions himself back into half guard. Zalal goes for the triangle again, shoving Sterling back a smidge with an upkick to the chest. Before Zalal can stand, Sterling leaps on top of him and drives knees and elbows to the side until five minutes are up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 2
There is a quick glove touch to get started, and Sterling winds up behind two powerful low kicks. Zalal quickly rushes back to circle away from the impact of those kicks, putting his back to the wall and exposing himself for the takedown that comes naturally from the former champ. Sterling considers a single but threatens with a body lock and lets go to scores a few punches. Zalal tries to time him on the way out but is out of range. He does chase Sterling down behind his fists, and he knees Sterling square in the beard. Sterling no-sells it like The Great Antonio against Antonio Inoki and puts the pressure on his foe. Zalal circles and drives home a right hand on the side of the dome. Both men take downs advancing, finding their way to attack and disengaging when it does not fully work. Sterling drops down for a single when pushing Zalal to the fencing, and he stands Zalal up with a couple of big punches on the break.
Zalal tries for another knee, and he wades back as Sterling lunges at him with long, winding hooks. Zalal’s jab is much straighter and quicker, ringing up Sterling a few times and forcing the former champ to try more unorthodox approaches like off-balance punches and oddly timed shots. Zalal spins to complete a back fist, and Sterling ducks it and tackles Zalal to the floor. Sterling hooks his legs around the waist to lock down a body triangle, where he postures up to hammer Zalal with punches to both sides of the head. Zalal turns all the way to give up his back, briefly breaking the body lock but unable to escape from the punches and hammerfists consistently raining down on him. Sterling bludgeons Zalal with well over a dozen unanswered strikes until Zalal turns away and tries to protect his neck. Sterling reasserts his dominant position when they both sit up, with his rapping his left hand around the guard again and again until the round is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 3
Zalal lands a low kick and immediately has to back off, with Sterling quick to corner him aiming body shots and pump-faking his hips. Sterling catches a knee on the chin and drives through to get hold of a single, bringing Zalal to a knee with his foe’s side against the fencing. When Zalal stands back up, he wraps up a guillotine choke, only for Sterling to scoop him up and deposit him gingerly down like a parent putting their young child on a diaper changing table in a public restroom. Zalal’s choke suddenly grows much tighter as Sterling finds himself in submission danger, but like before, the calm, cool cucumber that is the former champion moves just enough to relieve the tension on his throat and free himself. Zalal does establish himself on top after letting the choke go, but Sterling’s scrambles defend him from much of the ground-and-pound.
Sterling looks to push off the hips with butterfly hooks, switching suddenly to wrap up a partial triangle choke. When Zalal stands up to free his neck from the choke setup, Sterling belts him in the face with a crisp upkick. Zalal nods in approval and lowers himself back into the guard uncontested, where he maneuvers himself into side control and takes the back when Sterling scrambles. Zalal ties up a body triangle when he assumes back control, and Sterling sits up and defends his neck from any chokes coming his way. Zalal clings to his adversary but cannot isolate the neck, although his control ability and time sends a clear message. When Sterling gets to one knee, the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zalal

Round 4
Sterling walks down Zalal as soon as the round begins, slugging him with several right hands and slinging numerous leg kicks. Zalal’s reaction changes and his body language gets worse as Sterling keeps battering his leg with powerful kicks. Sterling closes in and grabs Zalal from behind, rolling him to the mat and completing the body triangle less than a minute into the round. Sterling softens Zalal up with a steady stream of strong left hands, trapping Zalal with his arm on the other side. Sterling holds his choke arm very closely to under the chin, and Zalal motions that he is thinking about tapping but does not give up. Sterling cinches the forearm under the chin, and he has Zalal’s left arm trapped in the submission so he cannot quite finish it. Zalal grimaces and toughs it out as best he can, rolling over to his stomach to reduce the pressure.
Sterling yanks him back over and has the body triangle just as frustratingly tight as ever. Zalal turns to try to break up the body lock, and he is constantly absorbing strike after unanswered strike. Zalal rolls to his back, with Sterling fully in mount, and it is Sterling who holds on with an arm-triangle choke. The former champ decides not to lock it down so he can bash Zalal in the face again and again. Zalal somehow fights out of the body lock and wills himself back to his feet, but he is under fire immediately as Sterling tears into him with body shots, knees and a few elbows. As he beats down Zalal against the wall, the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Sterling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Sterling

Round 5
Although Zalal initially comes out aggressively in the final frame, Sterling shuts him down before long with pressure and the threat of a looming takedown. Zalal ignores his concerns and lets his hands go, connecting squarely with a few punches to drive Sterling back. Sterling knows that his best path to victory is through his grappling, and he engages it. Pressing Zalal to the fencing, Sterling hunts for a single and transitions to a body lock with an outside trip. Zalal remains upright but is being controlled as precious seconds tick off the clock. Zalal pushes off at the midpoint of the round, and he throws once before Sterling is on him like a cheap suit.
Sterling swings like a Tasmanian devil, a veritable cloud of feet and fists surrounding him as he smashes directly into Zalal. Sterling’s strikes open up the takedown, which he completes and takes the wind out of the younger man’s sails. When Zalal turns, he exposes himself to the back take magician. Unsurprisingly, Sterling gladly secures back control with his body triangle locked down, and he starts railing Zalal with his left hand en masse. Zalal turns to take the sting out of it, and Sterling follows him and sticks his tongue out while grinning and nodding. Zalal turns to try to brawl while on the mat, and when he sits up, Sterling bludgeons, batters and bruises him with double axe handle smashes and Sakuraba-esque double punches. The moment the final horn blares, Sterling disengages, and he pumps his arms in the air certain that the victory is likely moments away.
The former training partners share plenty of laughs and good spirits after 25 minutes of combat. The victorious Sterling praises Zalal, suggesting that Zalal could fight for a title in the future. Until that happens, Sterling believes it is his time at 145 pounds. He asks for another fight against Movsar Evloev, while saying that he is also coming for champion Alexander Volkanovski. If that latter fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (49-45 Sterling)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (49-45 Sterling)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (49-45 Sterling)

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Youssef Zalal via Unanimous Decision (49-45, 49-45, 49-45)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Angelo leans on Aljamain Sterling, citing his five-round experience and wrestling edge. He acknowledges that Youssef Zalal is the better striker but believes Sterling's wrestling will be superior, referencing Sterling's performance against Movsar Evloev. He notes that Sterling opened as a favorite but is now an underdog, and he encourages rewatching the Evloev fight to see Sterling's scrambling ability.

"I'm going to lean Aljo. I think the five round experience, I think the wrestling edge, I think all of that works for Aljo here."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Youssef Zalal

Big Brady picks Youssef Zalal over Aljamain Sterling. He notes Zalal's recent improvements and finishing ability, and believes Zalal's cardio and pace will be advantages in a five-round fight. He thinks Sterling may slow down as the fight progresses, and predicts Zalal wins by decision.

Zalal wins by decision

"Give me Youssef Zalal to win. Youssef Zalal to win by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)

Youssef Zalal

The host leans Zalal due to his output, aggression, pace, and volume, plus Sterling's decline and lack of power. However, he admits it's impossible to form a strong opinion because Zalal hasn't faced a wrestler like Sterling in years. He calls the odds fair coin-flip territory and passes on betting.

Easy pass; no prop bets mentioned

"Gun to my head, I would lean Zalal because you know, I really like his output, his aggression, you know, his pace, his volume."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Youssef Zalal

James picks Youssef Zalal based on stylistic matchup, believing Zalal's footwork and striking will cause problems for Sterling. He notes Zalal's recent improvements and age advantage, and predicts a finish inside the distance as Sterling gets desperate with takedowns.

inside the distance (KO or submission)

"I am picking Ysef Salah. ... I'm confident in Ysef Salah."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Youssef Zalal

Zalal is on an eight-fight winning streak with improved wrestling and submission defense. Sterling is a former champion but is 36 and has a questionable gas tank. Zalal should be able to defend Sterling's grappling, use his striking edge, and win a decision. He is the younger, more confident fighter with momentum.

"I think Zal has good enough submission defense to not get finished. And then I think as we get into deeper water, Zal will stay squirmy enough to keep Sterling away from getting those uh large amounts of times of …"

MMA Lock of the Night

WIN vs Brian Ortega

Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling	0	55 of 174	31%	100 of 225	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:08
Brian Ortega	0	124 of 227	54%	153 of 262	3 of 6	50%	0	0	3:55

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Aljamain Sterling	2 of 28	7%	2 of 28	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Brian Ortega	27 of 44	61%	27 of 44	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Aljamain Sterling	9 of 40	22%	9 of 40	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Brian Ortega	13 of 54	24%	13 of 54	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Aljamain Sterling	21 of 42	50%	21 of 42	0 of 1	0%	0:00
3	Brian Ortega	35 of 52	67%	35 of 52	0 of 1	0%	0:00
4	Aljamain Sterling	13 of 37	35%	29 of 55	0 of 0	---	0:02
4	Brian Ortega	25 of 39	64%	35 of 49	1 of 1	100%	1:36
5	Aljamain Sterling	10 of 27	37%	39 of 60	0 of 1	0%	0:06
5	Brian Ortega	24 of 38	63%	43 of 63	2 of 4	50%	2:19

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aljamain Sterling	55 of 174	31%	30 of 138	20 of 29	5 of 7	54 of 173	0 of 0	1 of 1
Brian Ortega	124 of 227	54%	77 of 175	21 of 26	26 of 26	100 of 198	7 of 7	17 of 22

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aljamain Sterling	2 of 28	7%	2 of 25	0 of 2	0 of 1	2 of 28	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Brian Ortega	27 of 44	61%	16 of 32	3 of 4	8 of 8	27 of 44	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	9 of 40	22%	5 of 33	4 of 6	0 of 1	9 of 40	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Brian Ortega	13 of 54	24%	6 of 44	1 of 4	6 of 6	12 of 53	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Aljamain Sterling	21 of 42	50%	8 of 27	8 of 10	5 of 5	21 of 42	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Brian Ortega	35 of 52	67%	25 of 42	2 of 2	8 of 8	34 of 51	1 of 1	0 of 0
4	Aljamain Sterling	13 of 37	35%	8 of 29	5 of 8	0 of 0	12 of 36	0 of 0	1 of 1
4	Brian Ortega	25 of 39	64%	13 of 26	9 of 10	3 of 3	16 of 30	3 of 3	6 of 6
5	Aljamain Sterling	10 of 27	37%	7 of 24	3 of 3	0 of 0	10 of 27	0 of 0	0 of 0
5	Brian Ortega	24 of 38	63%	17 of 31	6 of 6	1 of 1	11 of 20	2 of 2	11 of 16

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling

Round 1
On merit and divisional relevance, this probably should have been the main event, but that divisional relevance was obliterated by Ortega’s weight cut failure, leading to a 153-pound catchweight affair. It’s still a hell of a fight, however, and when the featherweight contenders go to work, Herb Dean will be tasked with his final referee assignment of the event. Both men are in orthodox stance to open things up, and both come up short with reaching jabs in the first exchanges. Ortega goes southpaw. Thirty seconds in, Sterling feints his first level change, but no takedown attempt follows. Sterling throws a one-two that Ortega slips by pulling his head straight back, then nearly spills him with a nicely timed low kick. Sterling lands a pair of glancing punches and easily eludes the counter. Ortega is barely throwing anything back thus far in the fight. As I type that, he launches a blistering right cross that comes up just barely short. Two minutes left in the first round and Sterling lands another solid low kick—an investment in attrition, especially if this goes into the scheduled fourth and fifth rounds. Sterling with another chopping low kick that lands high on the calf. With under 30 seconds to go, it’s been all Sterling, but Ortega comes forward and lands his best punch of the round before the horn.
10-9 Sterling.

Round 2
Sterling is busy with the jab right away. Ortega throws a high kick that Sterling evades by slipping his head off the center line. Sterling is methodical, coming forward with his jab and cross, nailing Ortega with a calf kick anytime he stands his ground. It isn’t dazzling but it’s brutally effective, as Ortega is throwing next to nothing, aside from single big shots. Sterling tries a spinning backfist that glances without damage. Ortega takes the front foot midway through the round, backing up the former bantamweight champ and throwing righty haymakers. Sterling gives ground, keeps his chin out of range and keeps working on the lead leg. Sterling catches Ortega with a sweeping right hook and Ortega backs off, pawing at his left eye. Sterling looks at the referee, who states that it was a punch, not a finger, and indicates that they should keep fighting. They do not do so immediately, Sterling does not press the issue, and the result is effectively a 45-second timeout after no foul. Once they resume fighting, the round ends without any more substantive offense from either man.
10-9 Sterling.

Round 3
Sterling has to walk two-thirds of the way across the Octagon in order to touch gloves with Ortega; a decent metaphor for this fight in general. Ortega comes forward, snapping out his jab, and tags Sterling with a low kick. Ortega fires off another kick, this one clattering audibly off of Sterling’s cup, but Sterling waves off any intervention by Dean. Sterling continues to give ground in the face of Ortega’s advance, but is still landing more and better strikes. Ortega gets through with another good leg kick, and Sterling catches his next one, hoisting the kicking leg and punching him before letting go. Sterling snaps Ortega’s head back with a jab, then sits him down with a calf kick. Ortega pops back to his feet and lands a good low kick of his own. Sterling steps forward and connects with a long jab. Ortega marches Sterling to the fence but can’t capitalize before he slips out the side. Under a minute to go and Ortega is definitely the aggressor, but that shouldn’t be enough to win the round in the face of the disparity in offense. Ortega catches a kick but can’t land anything of consequence. Ortega fires off a stream of punches at the clapper, but it’s Sterling who connects with a spinning back elbow.
10-9 Sterling.

Round 4
The fourth round begins with Ortega down three to zero on our scorecard, but showing signs of life at the end of the last frame. “T-City” keeps up the pressure, stalking Sterling and trying to back him into the fence. Sterling continues to give ground, but he is still the one landing more and harder strikes. Ortega finally corrals him against the cage, but Sterling slips a couple of haymakers and makes his way back to open space. Two minutes into the round, Ortega is game but still a step behind, as he has been for essentially the entire fight. Sterling snaps his head back with a jab, then delivers another kick to Ortega’s battered left calf. Ortega makes things interesting, swarming forward, catching Sterling against the fence and throwing a flurry of punches with both hands. Many of them glance, but enough of them land that Sterling has to cover and back off. Ortega clinches with him against the fence, and Sterling dumps him to the canvas a moment later, settling in the jiu-jitsu ace’s full guard. Sterling is defensively sound and heavy on top, keeping his posture low while throwing short punches and looking to pass the guard. He postures up and drops a couple of punches and elbows before the horn.
10-9 Sterling.

Round 5
Ortega gets the now-or-never pep talk from his corner before the final round, and comes out hot. Sterling meets him with yet another hard low kick, but he’s forced to retreat in the face of Ortega’s attack. Ortega catches Sterling with a wide hook, his best punch of the fight, and Sterling backs off. Ortega initiates a takedown, but Sterling lands in top position, in Ortega’s full guard. Sterling postures up to look for ground strikes, then stand up out of the guard, and as Ortega gets up, Sterling catches him with a timed, but legal, knee to the dome. Ortega gets to his feet and catches Sterling with a right hand that hurts him. Sterling is in retreat, trying to recover and evade further damage as Ortega gives chase. He avoids the follow-up, but the strategy is so obvious that he draws a warning from Dean for timidity. Ortega crashes the pocket and clinches, but as the go down, it’s Sterling who takes Ortega’s back. Sterling sinks his hooks in and looks for a choke, but Ortega sweeps to top position. Sterling sweeps him right back and throws leather from guard until the horn.
10-9 Sterling (50-45 Sterling).

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Brian Ortega via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Angelo is extremely confident in Aljamain Sterling, calling him a backpack grappler with developed striking and spectacular ground game. He dismisses Brian Ortega as not very good anymore, relying only on toughness. He expects Sterling to get takedowns and dominate on the ground, likely by decision due to Ortega's toughness. He says this is one of his most confident picks on the card.

"Almaine Sterling, I think, absolutely rolls here. One of my most confident picks on this fight card."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Big Brady picks Aljamain Sterling to win by decision, citing Sterling's minute-winning ability on the feet and slick grappling. He notes that Sterling throws high volume and can take Ortega down, though he must watch for submissions. He believes Ortega is dangerous but hittable, and that Sterling will control the fight and win a decision.

Sterling by decision

"I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Connor notes that Brian Ortega's game has disintegrated; he used to rely on durability but now gets hurt early in fights. He highlights that Ortega is a guard grappler but hasn't gotten a guard submission since 2017, and his wrestling is an afterthought. Sterling, on the other hand, is a much better wrestler who can dictate grappling exchanges and pile up volume on the feet. Connor is curious to see how Sterling handles Ortega's guard, but believes Sterling's positional grappling will keep him on top.

Odds: Sterling opened -300, now -275; Ortega opened +250, now +235.

"I just have to trust sterling. He's going to get on top of him and make his life hell."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

The host sees this as a fun grappling matchup, but thinks Sterling's advantage in wrestling and control will shut down Ortega's aggressive BJJ. He expects Sterling to grind out a boring fight and win on the scorecards.

"I think Sterling's advantage in the wrestling realm and control should help him shut down the aggressive BJJ nature of Ortega's game and allow Sterling to grind this fight out probably in a boring matchup. And I think that will …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling to win by decision, citing Ortega's poor weight cut and zombie-like appearance at weigh-ins. He believes Sterling is more disciplined and professional, with better wrestling and positional grappling. He notes that Sterling can avoid Ortega's submission threats by pushing him against the cage and working from the back. He also thinks Sterling will do well on the feet, as Ortega has looked lost there at times.

Aljamain Sterling by decision 29-28

"I'm going to have to go with Almaine Sterling. More disciplined, more professional... I think Aljo is going to score this win over Brian Ortega."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Zane agrees that Sterling is the pick, citing Ortega's decline and the fact that he gets hurt in every fight now. He points out that Ortega's entire career has been about absorbing damage, and that Sterling's wrestling and speed will give Ortega problems. Zane also notes that Sterling has never faced a guard grappler like Ortega, but believes Sterling's mindful positional grappling will avoid spending much time in Ortega's guard.

"I just have to trust sterling. He's going to get on top of him and make his life hell."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Movsar Evloev

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Movsar Evloev	0	8 of 26	30%	136 of 165	4 of 5	80%	0	1	6:09
Aljamain Sterling	0	12 of 26	46%	45 of 67	6 of 8	75%	0	2	6:16

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Movsar Evloev	1 of 6	16%	16 of 26	1 of 1	100%	0	0:55
1	Aljamain Sterling	3 of 11	27%	7 of 18	2 of 2	100%	0	2:49
2	Movsar Evloev	3 of 9	33%	48 of 58	2 of 2	100%	0	3:25
2	Aljamain Sterling	5 of 8	62%	25 of 30	1 of 3	33%	2	0:48
3	Movsar Evloev	4 of 11	36%	72 of 81	1 of 2	50%	1	1:49
3	Aljamain Sterling	4 of 7	57%	13 of 19	3 of 3	100%	0	2:39

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Movsar Evloev	8 of 26	30%	6 of 23	1 of 1	1 of 2	6 of 22	0 of 1	2 of 3
Aljamain Sterling	12 of 26	46%	7 of 16	5 of 8	0 of 2	9 of 23	2 of 2	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Movsar Evloev	1 of 6	16%	0 of 4	0 of 0	1 of 2	1 of 5	0 of 1	0 of 0
1	Aljamain Sterling	3 of 11	27%	1 of 5	2 of 5	0 of 1	3 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Movsar Evloev	3 of 9	33%	2 of 8	1 of 1	0 of 0	3 of 9	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	5 of 8	62%	3 of 6	2 of 2	0 of 0	4 of 7	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Movsar Evloev	4 of 11	36%	4 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 8	0 of 0	2 of 3
3	Aljamain Sterling	4 of 7	57%	3 of 5	1 of 1	0 of 1	2 of 5	1 of 1	1 of 1

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Movsar Evloev vs. Aljamain Sterling
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Evloev (-265), Sterling (+215)

Round 1
Surprising many paying attention, this likely featherweight title eliminator is situated firmly on the prelims despite several lower-ranked contests at 145 playing out later on the billing. Evloev (18-0, 8-0 UFC) is not complaining, as he noted—likely accurately at that—that more people will be watching the ESPN-broadcasted prelims than tuning into the paid portion later. Sterling (24-4, 16-4 UFC) is not buying it and feels disrespected by his promotion, but that is nothing unusual for him given his history at bantamweight. This potentially fascinating grappling match will play out under the oversight of referee Jason Herzog, and it opens up with a glove touch. Sterling stalks his way forward, jabbing his way in and kicking with the ball of his foot. Evloev hops out of the way from a body kick, and one to his lead leg lands. Sterling catches him at the end of a right hand, and the Russian shrugs it off. Evloev kicks the front leg, and Sterling tries to time a head kick when Evloev ducks. Sterling connects with another big right hand, and he shoots in and drags Evloev down to force Evloev to put his hands on the mat. Chants of “USA” boom through the arena, and Sterling channels this energy and knees Evloev hard in the side. Sterling hangs on from the side and nearly back, and he complains that Evloev is grabbing his glove. Evloev adjusts and scoots his way to the wall, with Sterling following him every scoot of the way. Sterling has his hands clasped around Evloev’s waist, and he gets in a hook to take the back. “Funk Master” slides the second hook in, and he holds on tight while trying to free his right hand to set something up. Sterling again mentions that his glove is being grabbed, and Evloev elbows behind him on either side. Evloev stands up, and Sterling is still wrapped around him. The former bantamweight king lifts Evloev off the ground and slams him down, and the ensuing scramble allows Evloev to take his back. Sterling ducks a strike and is taken to the floor, and he sets up a guillotine choke but is in the wrong angle to get it. Evloev turns the corner as Sterling sits up, and he lowers himself down and wraps Sterling up in a crucifix as he drops to his back. The close round ends with Sterling taking punches upside the head.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 2
Sterling is the initial aggressor in the second round, pushing out a front kick, dropping back to avoid a few punches and crashing through to put Evloev on his seat. Evloev scrambles well enough to get to 50/50 position, and he stands up as Sterling holds onto his single leg. Evloev flips him around and lowers himself down in side control, hooking his legs around Sterling’s arm to go for a crucifix. Evloev takes the back, but Sterling pulls his hook out and turns. Evloev lands a few hammerfists to the side of the head as Herzog says “ears” a few times to let Evloev know that he needs to aim for the ears and not hit the back of the head. Sterling explodes around to get out of harm, and he wraps up Evloev and tries to slam him down on his face in what would have been a pro wrestling-style move. Evloev does not fall victim to it, turning around to shoot for a single. Sterling stifles it and loads up on a right hand, and Evloev backs him off with a right hand and a kick. Evloev wings a spinning wheel kick, and when planting his foot, he drills “Funk Master” in the face with a strong right hand. The success of the strike allows the Russian to shoot in and put Sterling on his back. Evloev looks to assert himself in half guard, even briefly considering an arm-triangle choke only to get elbowed in the side of the head a few times. Evloev takes Sterling’s back, and Sterling does not appear concern and instead scrambles out of it without much concern. Evloev again sets up a crucifix, and Sterling counters with a single and briefly gets top position. This back-and-forth grappling match is living up to the hype, and Sterling pursues a double when Evloev gets away. The horn sounds with Sterling in the midst of the shot.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Evloev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Evloev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Evloev

Round 3
Having reached the final round, both men clap hands. Sterling flashes out a front kick and a long jab, and he is able to escape the lunging Evloev from landing on him. Sterling ducks a big punch and gets off an uppercut, and he dips down low to evade a spinning back fist and tackles the Russian to the floor. Evloev returns to a knee, and Sterling remains busy pursuing the takedown. Evloev wraps an arm around Sterling’s head, and Sterling takes advantage of this by slinging Evloev down on his face. Evloev pushes off the floor to stand, and Sterling is leaning on him imposing his will while the crowd is in full support of the American. Sterling jams Evloev against the fence, allowing Evloev to knee him so he can move around to partially take Evloev’s back standing. Sterling drags Evloev to the floor, and as they slide around in a furious series of scrambles, Evloev flips his man over and resides on top. Evloev slugs Sterling in the chops a few times while they are both seated, and Sterling explodes back to his feet. Evloev whips Sterling around and back down, and he gets one hook in but is dropped on his head. Sterling does not escape the downed position, on both knees as Evloev punches him on the side of the head. Evloev turns Sterling to his back, and he opens up with punches. Sterling gets his hooks in and briefly holds the back, and when he scrambles, Evloev hooks his leg around Sterling’s shoulder. The final bell sounds while the two are in the midst of grappling, and it could be anyone’s game.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Evloev (29-28 Evloev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Evloev (29-28 Evloev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Evloev (29-28 Evloev)

The Official Result
Movsar Evloev def. Aljamain Sterling via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)

Movsar Evloev

Angelo picks Movsar Evloev confidently, stating Evloev is a better wrestler than Sterling and has superior striking. He dismisses Sterling's unorthodox striking as not intentionally effective. Angelo believes Evloev will take Sterling down at will and control the fight, similar to how he beat Arnold Allen. He expects a dominant performance.

"mosar EV have just absolutely mogs this dude just takes him down whenever he wants to"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Cody picks Sterling as a live underdog, citing his superior striking and wrestling. He notes Sterling's wins over top competition and believes his volume and back-taking ability will trouble Evloev. He expects a decision win for Sterling.

Sterling by decision; Fight goes to distance

"I will take Aljamain Sterling... plus 220, I think you can do a lot worse."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Connor picks Sterling because he believes Sterling has more tools to win if he can keep Evloev from wrestling. He notes that Evloev's pressure-based style can be shut down, and that Sterling's high-output striking and grappling are well-suited to a three-round fight. Connor also points out that Evloev has been walking a fine line and has been hurt in fights, while Sterling has shown improvement in his striking. He acknowledges that Sterling's cardio could be an issue but thinks over three rounds it might be enough.

Connor notes the odds: Sterling opened at +187, now +222; Evloev opened at -216, now -267.

"I'm gonna pick aljo here because I also think honestly that evil oev has been walking a pretty fine line himself."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Movsar Evloev

Daniel believes Evloev is ahead in every area, with better grappling and striking. He criticizes Sterling's cardio, striking technique, and takedown entries. He notes Evloev's ability to survive submission attempts and his punching power, citing damage done to Arnold Allen.

"I think that Evov is just simply ahead of him in every area of MMA."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Movsar Evloev

Evloev's grappling ability and scrambling will keep him out of bad positions from Sterling. He can remain in dominant position or use defensive grappling to stay upright and touch up Sterling, who doesn't look comfortable striking. Evloev will put together a good body of work through grappling and striking to win on the scorecards.

"I do believe Viv lv's grappling ability and scrambling will keep him out of too many bad position from Sterling"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Paul picks Sterling, calling it a lock. He highlights Sterling's technical skills, wrestling, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Evloev's takedowns won't be as effective and Sterling's striking advantage will be key. He expects a decision win.

Fight goes to distance

"I like Aljamain Sterling... it's a lock it in."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Movsar Evloev

The MMA Guru picks Evloev, believing he is too much for Sterling on the feet. He notes Evloev's improved standup, quicker punches, and ability to mix in takedowns. He trusts Evloev to win close rounds by shooting takedowns in the last 30 seconds to sway judges. He predicts a 29-27 decision with all rounds competitive.

"I'm gonna go with mzar evloev over aljamain Sterling"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Movsar Evloev

Zane picks Evloev, citing that he does not fully trust Sterling as a featherweight. He notes that Sterling's style, which relies on volume and wrestling, may not work against a bigger, aggressive grappler like Evloev. Zane points out that Evloev has shown he can handle high-level grappling, as seen in his fight with Diego Lopez, and that Sterling has a history of gassing. He also mentions that Sterling has never faced a fighter like Evloev who is eager to grapple and pressure.

"I'm gonna take you of loiv. I I do not fully trust aljo as a featherweight still."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Calvin Kattar

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling	0	8 of 29	27%	19 of 40	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:05
Calvin Kattar	0	39 of 71	54%	89 of 128	8 of 13	61%	0	0	10:43

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Aljamain Sterling	6 of 23	26%	10 of 27	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Calvin Kattar	15 of 33	45%	16 of 35	4 of 7	57%	1:51
2	Aljamain Sterling	2 of 5	40%	4 of 7	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Calvin Kattar	14 of 20	70%	30 of 37	2 of 3	66%	4:10
3	Aljamain Sterling	0 of 1	0%	5 of 6	0 of 0	---	0:05
3	Calvin Kattar	10 of 18	55%	43 of 56	2 of 3	66%	4:42

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aljamain Sterling	8 of 29	27%	7 of 26	1 of 3	0 of 0	7 of 26	1 of 2	0 of 1
Calvin Kattar	39 of 71	54%	12 of 40	15 of 17	12 of 14	23 of 46	5 of 5	11 of 20

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aljamain Sterling	6 of 23	26%	6 of 21	0 of 2	0 of 0	5 of 20	1 of 2	0 of 1
1	Calvin Kattar	15 of 33	45%	4 of 20	3 of 4	8 of 9	12 of 27	1 of 1	2 of 5
2	Aljamain Sterling	2 of 5	40%	1 of 4	1 of 1	0 of 0	2 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Calvin Kattar	14 of 20	70%	4 of 9	7 of 8	3 of 3	9 of 15	4 of 4	1 of 1
3	Aljamain Sterling	0 of 1	0%	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Calvin Kattar	10 of 18	55%	4 of 11	5 of 5	1 of 2	2 of 4	0 of 0	8 of 14

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Calvin Kattar vs. Aljamain Sterling
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sterling (-170), Kattar (+142)

Round 1
The storied rivalry of Boston vs. New York continues with a featherweight contest pitting “The Boston Finisher” Kattar (23-7, 7-5 UFC) against former bantamweight champ Sterling (23-9, 14-4 UFC). This will be a sink-or-swim moment for the New York-based funk-style wrestler, as he jumps into the deep end in his new weight class. The fighters will have 15 minutes or less to prove their case as contenders at 145 pounds, while referee Jason Herzog watches over every step of the way. Fists are not bumped, and instead Sterling wants to crowd forward and start attacking. Sterling reaches out with side kicks to the knee, and Kattar skirts out of the way a few times to take the sting out of them. Sterling wings a right hand that catches his foe on the side of the head, and Kattar stands form and moves away to check a low kick and push out his own jab. Kattar whips a head kick up and nearly clears the shoulder, but Sterling pushes past it and tries to tie him up. Kattar tosses him aside and slowly walks him down. Sterling fakes dropping down for a leg, and he fires off two wide hooks. A high kick from Sterling misses the mark, but several low kicks connect in succession. Sterling continues chipping away from afar with low kicks or the occasional one to the body, and he keeps Kattar from doing much. Sterling shoots in for a single, lifting Kattar’s leg up, but Kattar defends by scoring several punches up close. On Sterling’s second attempt, he leverages “The Boston Finisher” down to the canvas. Kattar pushes on the back of the head to stand back up, and Sterling lifts him off the ground to find a better angle to approach. Kattar leans with his back to the wall, and Sterling sneaks a single hook in as he methodically looks to take the back. Kattar muscles his way upright, and Sterling hits a quick mat return of sorts. Sterling wrenches Kattar all the way down to the ground, and he continues to set up his back take. Sterling ducks down, releasing the grip, so he can let loose a right hand over the top. Kattar sheds him, and he gets kicked in the ribs on the way out. Sterling pushes off his foe’s knee when Kattar advances, and he spins a spinning back fist as Kattar continues to walk him down. Sterling’s awkward movement and takedown efforts shut most of Kattar’s offense down, and Sterling manages to secure a single-leg takedown and climb on top to conclude the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
James Mannino scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 2
Sterling commences the round with a low kick, and he kicks the other side to trip Kattar up when Kattar tries to throw a punch. Sterling chains a head kick into a level change, and he backs Kattar to the wire and drives a knee to the chest. Sterling trips Kattar’s other leg up to sit him down, and the audience starts to boo Sterling’s efforts. Sterling has a single deep, and he appears to motion or nod to Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg, who is sitting cageside. Sterling gets Kattar all the way down, only for the Massachusetts native bounce back to his feet in short order. Sterling keeps after a single until there is no way in, and he opts to split Kattar’s legs far apart against the fence to disrupt his balance. When that too does not result in a change in position, Sterling knees the thigh several times and tries to impose his body weight to drag Kattar down. Sterling has a knee brush on the cup of his foe, but Kattar signals he is fine. Sterling clings to his man until he slides off the side, and he dodges a front kick and advances with a trio of punches. Sterling retreats, circling away from anything Kattar tries to reach him with, until he kicks low and aims body shots. The punches from Sterling lead to a level change, where he completes an easy double to rend Kattar to the floor. Sterling moves to side control and stays there, where he holds Kattar down and thwarts any potential offense coming back his way. Sterling continues to grind in the position until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
James Mannino scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 3
Sterling practically races out of his corner, throwing looping punches and a high kick until he closes in and grips hold of his adversary. Sterling chucks Kattar down to the mat without much effort, and Kattar posts off his arms to push himself back up. Sterling grapples him from behind, where he pushes Kattar to the wall with a hook in from behind. Kattar fights off the back take to turn himself to the fence, and Sterling switches up for a single. Kattar hangs on, and Sterling lowers him down to the ground comfortably. The crowd is not amused by Sterling’s strategy, and they let him have it as time ticks off the clock. Herzog asks Sterling to do more than hold in this position, and Sterling answers by lifting Kattar’s legs up to scoot him away from the cage wall and put him in a more horizontal position. Sterling keeps smothering until he sets up an arm-triangle choke, and he considers stepping over to one side but opts to go to the other instead to maintain control. Sterling knees the side a few times, and Kattar explodes to his knees and stands up. Sterling uses all of his might, lifting “The Boston Finisher” in the air and slamming him in the mat in a maneuver reminiscent of a pro wrestling powerbomb. The slam hurts Kattar, and Sterling recognizes this and tries to pound his damaged man out. Kattar manages to gather his thoughts as Sterling lays into him, and he grips hold of the waist to keep Sterling from landing anything especially harmful. Sterling attempts to posture up, and Kattar follows him by sitting up, ignoring any offense landing on his ribs. Sterling turns a potentially guillotine choke to a brabo choke, and Kattar sits out of it. Sterling drops hammers right until the end, putting a stamp on a clear-cut dominant performance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (30-27 Sterling)
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (30-27 Sterling)
James Mannino scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (30-27 Sterling)

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Calvin Kattar via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Angelo slightly leans Aljamain Sterling due to Kattar's 18-month layoff and knee surgery, which could cause ring rust. He notes Sterling's takedown accuracy is poor but his relentless wrestling may be enough. He acknowledges Kattar is the better striker and if he stuffs takedowns, he wins. He calls it razor thin at 51-49.

"Alaine very very very slight lean as the pick"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Cody sees this as a live underdog spot. He notes Sterling's wrestling may not translate to 145 lbs, as his grappling diminishes against bigger opponents. Sterling has been reluctant to shoot takedowns, as seen against Sean O'Malley, and was knocked out. Kattar has 91% takedown defense in the UFC, stuffing attempts from wrestlers like Dan Ige and Josh Emmett. Cody believes Kattar's volume and power advantage will be key, and if he stuffs takedowns, he can outpoint Sterling. He also mentions Sterling's mentality of wanting to grind out boring fights, which may not impress judges in a hot Vegas crowd.

"I'm going to back up with you on that one and uh take Calvin cater is dog number well we got Yuri peta's so to speak dog number one but you want a real dog we'll go with Calvin ker …"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Connor also picks Kattar with a cloud of question marks. He notes that Sterling is a creative takedown artist but moving up in weight against a big featherweight. Connor points out that wrestlers moving up rarely succeed, and Kattar's defensive wrestling has been solid. He also mentions that Kattar is a slow starter but has power and size advantages.

Odds: Sterling opened -115, now -167; Kattar opened -110, now +149. Connor notes the line movement.

"I'm going to take a Calvin cater as well with just a huge cloud of question marks floating around."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Calvin Kattar as a dog, citing his boxing advantage and takedown defense. He acknowledges Sterling's grappling threat but believes Kattar's size and striking can keep the fight standing. Vreeland is concerned about Kattar's injury layoff and Sterling's experience, but sees value in the underdog.

"I'll lean with Kattar"

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He says it's a really good fight and he is excited to see how Aljamain Sterling bounces back from losing his bantamweight title now fighting at featherweight. He does not give a prediction.

"Aljamain Sterling versus Calvin Kattar that's a really good fight I'm very excited to see how Aljo bounces back"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Kattar holds a striking advantage and will touch up Sterling from distance. He will shut down takedown attempts and batter Sterling on the feet, winning a decision. Sterling's featherweight debut will be tough.

decision

"I think we'll see Kar really touch up Alain Sterling from distance be able to Shu off off a couple of the takedown attempts and then really batter Sterling on the feet on route to a decision Victory"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Paul picks Kattar as a dog, citing the weight change for Sterling and Kattar's takedown defense. He notes that few have tried to wrestle Kattar, and those who did (Dan Ige, Josh Emmett) had little success. Paul thinks if Sterling can't get takedowns, it becomes a competitive standup fight where Kattar has more power. He also mentions Sterling's recent knockout loss and his apparent mental state, questioning his motivation. Paul believes Kattar can keep the fight standing and win a decision or even get a knockout.

"Calvin CER will be one for me."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling to win, citing Kattar's long layoff and leg injury. He believes Sterling's grappling will be too much for Kattar, especially targeting the injured rear leg with single legs. He expects Sterling to either finish or ride out a decision.

"Al Jamaine Sterling the Funk Master is going to get it done he's going to show these featherweights what real grappling is."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Zane picks Kattar despite many question marks. He notes that Kattar is a big featherweight with power, and Sterling is moving up for the first time. Zane argues that wrestlers moving up rarely look their best, and Sterling's inefficient style may not translate well. He also points out that Kattar has faced few dedicated wrestlers, but Sterling's first fight at 145 could be a disadvantage.

Odds: Sterling opened -115, now -167; Kattar opened -110, now +149. Zane mentions the line movement.

"I am gonna, I'm gonna take Kater. I am he's the, the guys that have beat him tend to be bigger punching or more deft range strikers who can actually just handle him there."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Sean O'Malley

TKO (punches) R2 0:51 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Sean O'Malley	0	17 of 35	48%	24 of 46	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:34
Aljamain Sterling	1	25 of 35	71%	26 of 36	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:18

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Sean O'Malley	0	13 of 26	50%	20 of 37	0 of 1	0%	0:21
1	Aljamain Sterling	0	8 of 14	57%	8 of 14	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Sean O'Malley	0	4 of 9	44%	4 of 9	0 of 1	0%	0:13
2	Aljamain Sterling	1	17 of 21	80%	18 of 22	0 of 0	---	0:18

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Sean O'Malley	17 of 35	48%	3 of 12	3 of 10	11 of 13	16 of 33	1 of 2	0 of 0
Aljamain Sterling	25 of 35	71%	18 of 25	6 of 9	1 of 1	10 of 16	1 of 1	14 of 18

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Sean O'Malley	13 of 26	50%	0 of 5	2 of 8	11 of 13	13 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Aljamain Sterling	8 of 14	57%	3 of 6	4 of 7	1 of 1	7 of 13	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Sean O'Malley	4 of 9	44%	3 of 7	1 of 2	0 of 0	3 of 7	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	17 of 21	80%	15 of 19	2 of 2	0 of 0	3 of 3	0 of 0	14 of 18

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sterling (-258), O’Malley (+210)

Round 1
In the main attraction inside of the
Boston Garden
FleetCenter
TD Banknorth Garden
TD Garden, two men with no particular affinity to Beantown will collide for bantamweight gold. In the truest sense of the overused phrase, this is a pure grappler vs. striker affair, one that pits defending champ Sterling (23-3, 15-3 UFC) against the exceptionally accurate O’Malley (16-1, 1 NC; 8-1, 1 NC UFC). Should Sterling get his hand raised, he will set the record for the most consecutive defenses in the division’s history, while O’Malley can become the second champion to make his way to the promotion from Dana White’s Contender Series – Jamahal Hill was the first. There is nothing more that needs to be said from these two or about these two, and referee Marc Goddard brings the two together to make the title fight official. The staredown lasts from the moment Bruce Buffer starts speaking through to part of the introductions, and they are intense. They do touch gloves, and it’s on with the show. When they come together, Sterling is quick to swat O’Malley’s hands down. Sterling leaps forward with front kicks and side kicks, and he reaches out with long jabs while O’Malley stays out of reach. Sterling lands a solid leg kick as he races after O’Malley, and O’Malley responds with a front kick. Sterling keeps busy with kicks to any target, and O’Malley jabs to the body. O’Malley pushes the pace and draws a reaction out of his opponent, and the crowd rains down a profane chant against the champion. Sterling puts his foot on the gas, and he leans back from a long left hand that comes at his chin. The two take turns leading the dance, but O’Malley’s work rate is quite low through the first half of the round. O’Malley feints and fakes his way in, and he has to block a body kick that gets past his guard. Sterling chips away at the lead leg, and he absorbs a front kick on the ribs. Sterling peppers O’Malley with three low kicks before O’Malley gives him a stomping kick back to his knee. Sterling’s inside calf kicks force a stance switch early, and O’Malley lunges forward but does not fire off anything. Sterling reacts significantly when O’Malley is about to strike, and he picks at O’Malley’s leg while strafing to the side. O’Malley drops his hands to taunt Sterling into coming at him, and Sterling keeps ripping leg kicks and little else. Sterling blazes past his foe with a kick, and O’Malley settles down and fires off a spinning back kick that backs him off. Sterling shoots in for a single, and he jams O’Malley up against the fence while holding his foe’s leg in the air. Sterling lands several short punches, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 2
The second round begins with the two rushing towards one another, and O’Malley lashes out with a kick that he misses and falls over after throwing. Sterling comes at him and pursues a takedown, and O’Malley backs himself against the wall to stay up. O’Malley shuts it down and drops back to line up a right hand, and Sterling misses with a punch and gets cracked right on the chin. Sterling crashes down to the ground on his face, and he turns to his side in an effort to get his wits about him. O’Malley follows him down and clubs him with hammerfists, and Sterling is moving but still taking damage. O’Malley continues his bombardment of punches, and Goddard is closely watching over things. Sterling turns over and looks to reach out with his left arm for a potential takedown, and Goddard waves the fight off. Some may consider it an early stoppage, given how Sterling was still moving and defending himself. Nevertheless, the fight is over and O’Malley is now the UFC’s bantamweight champion, and he is the second fighter off the Contender Series to claim a UFC strap. The landscape of the 135-pound weight class has now changed drastically, and a wealth of options present themselves for O’Malley first defense and upcoming title reign. Marlon Vera, Merab Dvalishvili, Umar Nurmagomedov and a few others are right in contention, and it will be interesting to see how it turns out. In his post-fight interview, O’Malley mentions that he would be up for his first defense against Vera this December, and Vera immediately responded on social media with a post of dollar signs and bags of cash. If that is the fight the UFC makes for its Dec. 16 pay-per-view card, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Aljamain Sterling R2 0:51 via TKO (Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Angelo picks Aljamain Sterling, expecting his wrestling to take over as Sean O'Malley slows down in the later rounds. He notes that O'Malley gassed in a three-round fight and this is five rounds. He thinks Sterling could win by submission but acknowledges O'Malley's toughness and striking threat. He believes Sterling's range management and takedowns will be the difference.

"Al Jermaine Sterling is going to start to take over... I think Al Jermaine's gonna win this I think he could potentially win by submission."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)

Sean O'Malley

Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by fourth-round knockout, but admits he's terrified of Sterling's early grappling. He believes O'Malley can stuff takedowns and make Sterling work, causing Sterling to slow down. Brady notes O'Malley's striking advantage and power, and thinks if O'Malley survives the first few rounds, he can finish Sterling late.

win by KO, round 4

"I think I'm gonna pick Sean O'Malley here... fourth round knockout"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Cody believes Sterling's grappling and wrestling are a notch above O'Malley's, and that Sterling will take O'Malley down, control him, and win rounds. He notes that O'Malley's camp lacks confidence, and that the line is inflated due to O'Malley's popularity. He expects Sterling to win by decision or submission, and likes the value at -260.

over 4.5 rounds at +150; Sterling over 3 takedowns; fight time over 18.5 minutes

"I like algema Sterling and I really like this line now who likes a minus 260 line Pat like it's still pretty deep but I think 100 once baked into it is that hate Factor people just don't like Al …"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Daniel Levi leans toward Aljamain Sterling, acknowledging that Sterling should be favored but questioning whether the -255 price is warranted. He notes that Sterling has a clear path to victory if O'Malley has no answer when his back is taken, but if O'Malley can stretch the fight out, all bets are off. Levi mentions that Sterling's cardio fades in championship rounds due to massive weight cuts, which could open a late path for O'Malley. He also highlights that O'Malley's confidence and training with Taki Mendez might help him survive early grappling exchanges. Ultimately, Levi picks Sterling but is not fully confident, as he is intrigued by O'Malley's potential to survive and capitalize late.

Sterling minus 255 is a question; O'Malley plus 215; if O'Malley can stretch it out, all bets are off

"I do have to lean towards aljo and I'm but I am rooting just as a fan for O'Malley"

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)

Sean O'Malley

Lucrative James picks Sean O'Malley, citing his distance management, footwork, and underrated jiu-jitsu. He believes Sterling's frequent weight cuts and recent activity may affect his performance. He sees value on O'Malley's moneyline and thinks O'Malley could get a knockout or win rounds on damage.

"I like Sean O'Malley for some value on this one I honestly do"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Sterling has a clear grappling advantage and should be able to take O'Malley down and control him. O'Malley's takedown defense has been a weakness, and Sterling's pressure and back-taking ability will be key. Sterling will likely win a decision rather than chase a finish, conserving energy. The decision prop is the best play.

Sterling by decision

"give me algeman Sterling and still by decision"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling over Sean O'Malley. He believes Sterling's grappling will be the difference, as O'Malley will be worried about takedowns. He notes Sterling's tricky movement and ability to pressure O'Malley backwards. He predicts Sterling will take O'Malley down early, get his back, and win by TKO via ground and pound in round 1 or 2. He thinks Sterling will prove a point.

TKO by ground and pound from back mount in round 1 or 2

"I think he's going to win impressively and I think he's going to beat up O'Malley and maybe finish him by TKO to ground and pound from the back mount in round one or round two"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Henry Cejudo

Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling	0	135 of 210	64%	186 of 261	4 of 15	26%	0	0	4:00
Henry Cejudo	0	99 of 174	56%	143 of 219	3 of 8	37%	0	0	5:06

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Aljamain Sterling	20 of 34	58%	29 of 43	2 of 3	66%	1:37
1	Henry Cejudo	7 of 18	38%	15 of 26	1 of 1	100%	1:47
2	Aljamain Sterling	29 of 55	52%	29 of 55	0 of 2	0%	0:00
2	Henry Cejudo	31 of 53	58%	31 of 53	0 of 2	0%	0:02
3	Aljamain Sterling	26 of 29	89%	45 of 48	1 of 6	16%	1:30
3	Henry Cejudo	15 of 29	51%	38 of 53	1 of 1	100%	1:43
4	Aljamain Sterling	36 of 52	69%	52 of 68	1 of 3	33%	0:38
4	Henry Cejudo	19 of 33	57%	24 of 38	0 of 2	0%	0:46
5	Aljamain Sterling	24 of 40	60%	31 of 47	0 of 1	0%	0:15
5	Henry Cejudo	27 of 41	65%	35 of 49	1 of 2	50%	0:48

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aljamain Sterling	135 of 210	64%	51 of 112	50 of 60	34 of 38	103 of 174	24 of 28	8 of 8
Henry Cejudo	99 of 174	56%	35 of 99	30 of 37	34 of 38	82 of 152	16 of 21	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aljamain Sterling	20 of 34	58%	5 of 15	10 of 12	5 of 7	12 of 25	3 of 4	5 of 5
1	Henry Cejudo	7 of 18	38%	3 of 13	1 of 1	3 of 4	7 of 16	0 of 2	0 of 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	29 of 55	52%	10 of 33	11 of 14	8 of 8	28 of 53	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Henry Cejudo	31 of 53	58%	10 of 26	7 of 11	14 of 16	29 of 51	2 of 2	0 of 0
3	Aljamain Sterling	26 of 29	89%	12 of 15	11 of 11	3 of 3	17 of 20	7 of 7	2 of 2
3	Henry Cejudo	15 of 29	51%	7 of 19	5 of 6	3 of 4	10 of 23	4 of 5	1 of 1
4	Aljamain Sterling	36 of 52	69%	11 of 25	13 of 14	12 of 13	27 of 42	8 of 9	1 of 1
4	Henry Cejudo	19 of 33	57%	7 of 20	5 of 6	7 of 7	16 of 30	3 of 3	0 of 0
5	Aljamain Sterling	24 of 40	60%	13 of 24	5 of 9	6 of 7	19 of 34	5 of 6	0 of 0
5	Henry Cejudo	27 of 41	65%	8 of 21	12 of 13	7 of 7	20 of 32	7 of 9	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cejudo (-115), Sterling (-105)

Round 1
This one is for all the marbles, and a fair amount of divisional glory as well. Sterling (22-3, 14-3 UFC) will be trying to set the UFC bantamweight record by notching his third successful title defense, while Cejudo (16-2, 10-2 UFC) would like nothing more than to get his old belt back. The winner of this pairing will elevate themselves in the all-time rankings at bantamweight, and they will have 25 minutes to figure it out. Like the legion of fans in the Prudential Center, referee Herb Dean is excited for how this one will play out. The fighters share a stern glove touch, and let the games begin. Sterling comes out aggressively, and he leads the dance with an early head kick. They clash shins at the same time, and Sterling recovers and kicks the leg. Cejudo ignores a few low kicks and backs away when Sterling leaps at him with a flying knee. Cejudo dodges a body kick, and he counters with a right hand. Sterling stalks him down and reaches out with a swatting right up high and left to the body. Cejudo tries to catch leg, and he elects to snatch up a body lock and easily take the champ to the mat. Sterling sits up against the wall, and Cejudo holds on in half guard until Sterling sets up butterfly hooks. Cejudo drops down to grab hold of a guillotine choke with Sterling on his knees, and Sterling breaks the grip but is holding Sterling’s head down. Sterling explodes to his feet, and he eats a leg kick and a right hand on the way. Sterling loads up with a body kick, and Cejudo catches it and whiffs with a huge right hand. Sterling snipes him with his superior range, and Cejudo pushes forward into a clinch. Sterling considers a level change, and Cejudo staves it off and again presses on the back of Sterling’s neck to keep him low. They stand up, and Sterling hunts for a single-leg with Cejudo against the cage. The crowd opens up with chants for “Henry” despite Sterling the fighter from the area, and Sterling manages to take that energy and muscle the ex-champ down to his knees. Sterling cannot keep him down or take his back, and he slams a few knees to the side before Cejudo stands. Sterling hits a mat return, and he snatches up back control and gets one hook in. Cejudo looks to break up the leg wrap, and Sterling knees his man in the thigh a few times and swings with a huge punch right before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 2
Cejudo starts off the second frame with a calf kick, and Sterling greets him with sharp jab and a body kick. Sterling jumps with a switch kick that lands on the shoulder, and Cejudo is still trying to find his distance. Cejudo connects with a calf kick, and Sterling shoots in on him. Sterling shoulder rolls a few punches, and he sticks Cejudo with a straight left. They trade low kicks, and Sterling catches a kick only to get caught with an uppercut to let it go. Cejudo presses the action and shocks Sterling with a head kick, and the champion reels and reaches out with a right hook. Sterling pushes out a front kick, turns to dodge a head kick, and he intercepts Cejudo with a knee to the guts. Sterling surprises his foe with a left hook when faking with a front kick, and he throws kicks to all targets to fluster the ex-flyweight. Sterling shoots in for a takedown, and Cejudo stops it in its tracks with ease. Sterling gets in a left hand, and when Cejudo counters, Sterling is there to catch him with a strike and be out of harm’s way in time. Cejudo puts some mustard into an overhand right, and Sterling jukes and keeps moving. “Funk Master” retains his awkward movement and strange angles, and this allows him to take most of the steam out of the heavy strikes Cejudo throws. Cejudo backs his man up with a straight right to the pectorals, and Sterling spins him around with a calf kick. Cejudo walks into a left hand, and he tries to hop forward with a hook only to get backed off. Sterling quickly spins with an elbow, and Cejudo looks for answers and loads up on a power right. When Sterling ducks away, Cejudo nearly dislodges his dome with a head kick. Sterling slides away and gets a straight left out, and he keeps a high guard to blow what comes back immediately. Sterling digs a punch to the body, and Cejudo replies with a few punches up top. Sterling kicks the side, and Cejudo looks for a takedown only to get shut down. Cejudo wings a monster right hand, and Sterling brushes past it and looks to trip Cejudo down. The wild scramble allows Cejudo to land on top, but the round ends before anything comes from it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 3
Cejudo practically comes out sprinting from his corner, and the two engage in a series of leg kicks. Cejudo breaks this up with one to the ribcage, and Sterling ducks down with a jab. Cejudo times a perfect flying knee that skims off the top of the head, and Sterling drops down to shoot in for a takedown. Cejudo sprawls perfectly and is pushed down to the floor, with no submission or anything from Cejudo. “The Messenger” lets him back up, and Sterling thanks him with a big right hand. Sterling shoots for another takedown, and this time, Cejudo makes him pay for this try with a stern knee. Sterling pursues another from a different angle, and Cejudo defends it and turns his foe around to push him to the fence. Sterling gets off a short knee while they jockey for position, and Sterling trips out a leg and drops Cejudo to the floor. Sterling sneaks his right leg in for a potential hook, and Cejudo hangs onto Sterling’s left arm but cannot keep the gold medalist grounded. Sterling lets him up so that he can smash Cejudo in the face with a clean knee, and he aims one more to the body. Sterling looks for another takedown entry, and Cejudo tosses him out of the way. Sterling lands a left, and Cejudo replies with a right and sprawls to stop a naked takedown. Cejudo nearly circles around to the side, and Sterling answers by switching up for a single. Cejudo keeps his chest pressed on the back of Sterling’s head to stop the takedown from getting anywhere, and he hammers Sterling with a punch before waving Sterling back up. Sterling obliges and they trade body kicks. Sterling fires off a one-two into a level change, and Cejudo stops it but absorbs a pair of flush knees to the torso. Cejudo hits a trip, plopping Sterling on his back with seconds to spare, and he rides out the remainder of the round in the guard.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo

Round 4
The championship rounds are upon them, and Sterling scores a few low kicks to start them off. Sterling swings a left hand, and Cejudo answers with a leg kick. The champ measures a kick to the side, and he loads up with another. Cejudo tries to fire back a low kick, and Sterling strikes the same spot and then has one calf kick checked. Cejudo blocks one and lunges forward, with a right hand connecting before Sterling is able to escape. Sterling sits down on a leg kick, and he follows with a right hand. Cejudo steps in with a knee and two punches, and these two are striking tit-for-tat one after the other. Sterling stings the calf with a shin, prompting Cejudo to charge at him with his fists out to clinch up. Cejudo cannot keep him tied up, and he tosses him away and catches a kick to release a left hand over the top. Sterling sticks out a jab and fails for a takedown, and he nails the calf with another kick. Sterling snaps the head back courtesy of a sharp jab, and Cejudo walks through a kick on his calf to consider a takedown. Sterling breaks free and aims a punch high and a kick low. Cejudo fakes a takedown and walks Sterling down to smack him with a shovel uppercut, and Sterling knees him in the liver. Cejudo grabs the raised leg but cannot elevate him, and Sterling turns the corner and knees his foe in the body. Cejudo whips Sterling around and uses a head lock to drag Sterling to the mat. Sterling pushes through to attack a double, and Cejudo does a whole split but cannot stop Sterling from taking him down. Sterling laces up the leg and lands a few right hands, and Cejudo bursts back up and gets slugged in the chops before the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 5
Sterling points at the ground and says “Let’s go” to start off the last round, and the bantamweights meet in the middle of the cage for five more minutes of combat. Cejudo charges, ignoring a leg kick and launching one up high off the shoulder. Sterling slaps another calf kick to the swollen leg of his opponent, and Cejudo blocks one to his liver to follow. Sterling circles on the outside to avoid the looping strikes of his opponent, and Cejudo steps in with a solid body kick. Sterling gives two right back, and he whiffs on a big right hand. Cejudo charges recklessly, face-first into a right hand, but he pays it no mind as he strikes the side with his shin. Cejudo is pressuring aggressively, and Sterling backs him away with a few punches and a high kick. Cejudo scores a right hand as he comes in, and the fans rain down cheers for “Henry” again. Sterling spins with a back kick as Cejudo is kicking low, breaking up this attack. Cejudo stuns the champ with a left hand, and Sterling blinks it out and fights off a single. Cejudo lets it go and cracks Sterling with a right hand and follows it with a leg kick. Sterling reaches out with a right that misses the mark, and he boots the liver as Cejudo takes a look at the clock. Sterling slips a punch and sticks a straight left out, and Cejudo absorbs a calf kick and stuffs a takedown. Cejudo knees the body a few times and looks to follow it with an uppercut, and Sterling rolls with a punch and gets tied up. Sterling backs away from the advancing Cejudo, who grabs hold of a single and lifts Sterling’s leg in the air. Sterling topples down to his seat, but he powers right back up to his feet with Cejudo holding on from behind. Sterling tries to break the grip, and he spins around to get tied up. Cejudo lets go with clinch punches and knees, and the fight has reached its conclusion. It might go either way, possibly depending on the scoring of the second round. In victory, Sterling becomes the first bantamweight champion in UFC history to record three consecutive title defenses. One of the most underappreciated champs in the company is received by a series of boos, but Sterling lets it slide off like water off a duck’s back.
The defending champ calls out Sean O’Malley for his next challenge, and O’Malley enters the cage wearing a jacket reminiscent of “Thriller” by Michael Jackson. O’Malley steps right up to Sterling’s face and constantly repeats the line “you better do better than that.” UFC head Dana White gets between them, and Sterling calls for O’Malley to be removed from his cage. O’Malley approaches Sterling’s teammate, Merab Dvalishvili, who grabs his jacket, puts it on himself and runs away. Sterling is ready to go help out his teammate should a skirmish break out, with O’Malley hurling expletives and middle fingers until his red coat is returned. The security prevents anything bad from arising, and Sterling takes the mic again and tells O’Malley that they will fight in September. After this cools down, Cejudo is given the microphone, and he removes his gloves. Cejudo expresses his disappointment for the close fight, but holds no ill will towards the man that defeated him. Quoting “Talladega Nights,” Cejudo states that “If I’m not first, I’m last” and says this might be the last time he competes. If he fights again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (49-46 Sterling)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (48-47 Sterling)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (48-47 Sterling)

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Henry Cejudo via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Angelo picks Aljamain Sterling despite acknowledging asterisks on his title wins (illegal knee, split decision, TJ Dillashaw with one arm). He believes Sterling's size and activity will be decisive, as Sterling is a weight bully and has been fighting consistently while Cejudo returns after three years. Angelo is rooting for Cejudo but thinks the layoff and cardio questions are too much to overcome. He notes Cejudo's Olympic wrestling credentials but doubts he can take down the much larger Sterling.

"I have to go with the current champion who is more active who is much larger I have to go with Al Jermaine Sterling here"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Big Brady picks Sterling due to activity, youth, volume, and size advantages. He notes Cejudo's three-year layoff is a major concern, especially at lower weight classes. He acknowledges that if prime Cejudo shows up, he should win, but he's not confident in that. He mentions Sterling's reach and height advantages and that Sterling is in his prime training with Merab Dvalishvili. He says this is his least confident pick on the card and he's likely not betting it.

Least confident pick on the card; likely not betting this fight

"I'm gonna go with Sterling here in this matchup but if we do get Prime sahudo he should win this fight I'm just not sure if we will get that so give me Sterling to win this fight I'll say …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Cody acknowledges the massive question marks around Henry Cejudo's three-year layoff and whether he can replicate his past success. He gives Sterling advantages in speed, striking, grappling, and recent experience, but notes that Cejudo's constant pressure could exploit Sterling's tendency to fade in later rounds. He suggests playing Sterling live after the first round for a better price rather than betting pre-fight, and only as a small play if nothing else on the card jumps out.

Live betting after first round; only small play on top line

"I just feel like for this price on algeman Sterling I would have to play now not something I'm super confident in I would only put it on the top line just like last week's rookie Simone pick"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Henry Cejudo

Connor leans toward Cejudo, citing raw speed as a major factor and noting that Cejudo is the fastest fighter Sterling has faced since Marlon Moraes. He believes Cejudo's pressure and willingness to take risks will be effective, and that Cejudo will land the bigger shots. Connor acknowledges the age and ring rust concerns but is willing to take that flyer.

"So I think I'm going to lean Henry Sahutto here. I'm going to take the age flyer. I'm going to take the time off flyer."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Henry Cejudo

The host believes Henry Cejudo's speed, explosiveness, and defensive grappling will be too much for Aljamain Sterling. He notes that Cejudo is difficult to take down and control, and his calf kicks and power punching could be key. He expects Cejudo to win by knockout in the third or fourth round, assuming he hasn't regressed too much from the layoff.

Cejudo by knockout, round 3 or 4

"I think that suhuru hasn't you know regressed too much after being out of the cage for as long as he has but if he comes by even 90 of what he used to be I think he has a …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Paul agrees with Cody's reasoning, noting that while Cejudo could return like Jon Jones or GSP, the three-year layoff is a major unknown. He highlights Sterling's seven-inch reach advantage and massive speed advantage from training with Rob Font. He says it's 'algermane or pass' for him but doesn't feel he has an edge betting-wise, so he likely won't place a bet.

"it's it's algermane or pass for me right now but I don't know if I'm going to get to get to it from a betting perspective"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

The Guru leans toward Sterling, citing Cejudo's three-year layoff and age (36) as major factors. He believes Sterling's reach and height advantages will allow him to pick at Cejudo from range with front kicks and jabs. He also notes that Cejudo's wrestling may be neutralized by Sterling's body triangle, which can burn rounds. However, he admits it's a 50-50 fight and hopes Cejudo wins for entertainment, showing low confidence.

"aljo's gonna win it's a 50-50 fight I'm leaning towards Al Jermaine Sterling here"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Zane picks Sterling, noting that he always starts strong with a clear game plan and is underrated for his toughness and resilience. He highlights Sterling's high output, body work, and weapons like knees and uppercuts to counter shorter fighters. Zane acknowledges the risk of Sterling getting caught or fading late, but believes Sterling's grappling danger and ability to take Cejudo's back are key advantages.

"Yeah, I'm going to stick with Alderman Sterling. I mean, I think if I assume ring rest to be a factor at all, all I know is Alderman Sterling always starts."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs T.J. Dillashaw

TKO (punches) R2 3:44 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling	0	72 of 93	77%	148 of 181	5 of 8	62%	2	0	7:06
T.J. Dillashaw	0	8 of 26	30%	13 of 31	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Aljamain Sterling	30 of 45	66%	80 of 103	3 of 4	75%	1	4:20
1	T.J. Dillashaw	3 of 11	27%	8 of 16	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Aljamain Sterling	42 of 48	87%	68 of 78	2 of 4	50%	1	2:46
2	T.J. Dillashaw	5 of 15	33%	5 of 15	0 of 0	---	0	0:03

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aljamain Sterling	72 of 93	77%	56 of 75	13 of 15	3 of 3	17 of 30	2 of 4	53 of 59
T.J. Dillashaw	8 of 26	30%	3 of 20	2 of 2	3 of 4	8 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aljamain Sterling	30 of 45	66%	24 of 38	5 of 6	1 of 1	8 of 15	1 of 3	21 of 27
1	T.J. Dillashaw	3 of 11	27%	0 of 8	1 of 1	2 of 2	3 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	42 of 48	87%	32 of 37	8 of 9	2 of 2	9 of 15	1 of 1	32 of 32
2	T.J. Dillashaw	5 of 15	33%	3 of 12	1 of 1	1 of 2	5 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Aljamain Sterling vs. T.J. Dillashaw
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sterling (-175), Dillashaw (+150)

Round 1
The co-main event kicks off under the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard. They exchange kicks as Sterling changes stances. Tons of movement early on, and Sterling catches a kick which he uses to spin Dillashaw to the canvas. Sterling takes Dillashaw’s back for a moment, but they spin through and Sterling lands in half guard. Dillashaw appears to be in pain from something. Sterling moves to mount, then locks up a body triangle from the top. Dillashaw’s left arm or shoulder may be the problem. Sterling lands a couple of huge right hands from the top, then takes Dillashaw’s back. Sterling working for a choke, then gives it up to move back to mount. Dillashaw pops back up and scrambles, but Sterling is all over him, regaining back control. Under two minutes left and Sterling has Dillashaw in a body triangle from back mount. Sterling pelts the ex-champ with punches that curl around the front of Dillashaw’s face. Dillashaw escapes to his feet and his left arm is clearly compromised. Sterling drops for a takedown with 30 seconds left, driving Dillashaw to the fence. He peels Dillashaw away from the fence and dumps him on the canvas. Dillashaw pops back up right before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Sterling
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-8 Sterling
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-8 Sterling

Round 2
Dillashaw’s shoulder is popped back in between rounds, and they’re good to go for another round at least. Sterling throws low kicks to open the round as Dillashaw returns fire, mostly with his right hand. Sterling drops levels for an easy double-leg takedown in the middle of the Octagon. Sterling sets up in Dillashaw’s half-guard. Sterling tries to move to side control, dropping elbows as he does. Dillashaw drives back to his feet, but is ensnared in a D’Arce choke as he does. Dillashaw escapes the hold, and his arm is once again all the way out of the socket, hanging limply at his side. The champ seems unsure of what to do, but takes Dillashaw down again. Sterling moves to mount. Dillashaw turns his back and goes belly-down. Sterling smashes Dillashaw with a couple of brutal elbows, then several punches, and Dillashaw is doing next to nothing to defend himself. Ref Goddard steps in and mercifully calls a stop to the mauling.

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. T.J. Dillashaw R2 3:44 via TKO (Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Angelo picks T.J. Dillashaw, surprised he is an underdog. He questions how Sterling can take Dillashaw down, noting only two people have ever done it. He praises Dillashaw's pace, pressure, and toughness, referencing the Sandhagen fight. He has a moneyline bet on Dillashaw at +150.

Moneyline bet at +150

"I'm going TJ Dillashaw I got that moneyline bet at plus 150"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Big Brady picks Dillashaw to win by decision, despite concerns about his age (36) and decline. He believes stylistically it's a great matchup for Dillashaw: his takedown defense (86%) and get-up game are elite, and Sterling has only 30% takedown accuracy. He expects Dillashaw's pressure and cardio to overwhelm Sterling in the later rounds, winning the third, fourth, and fifth.

"I'm going to take dylasha to win by decision I think early on super competitive I think Sterling can even take a round or two but I think as the fight goes on I think the pressure is going to …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Cody thinks Sterling is the superior fighter overall but believes Dillashaw is live as an underdog. He notes Sterling's cardio fades in later rounds, while Dillashaw historically excels in rounds 4 and 5. Cody points out that Dillashaw has excellent takedown defense and wrestling, and that Sterling's takedowns may not hold him down. He sees Dillashaw winning the striking exchanges and possibly capitalizing on Sterling's fatigue.

"I just kind of feel like for an underdog plus money is not taking anything away for algebra and Sterling it's just like I think he's live in this spot to get upset so uh sign me up for some …"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Connor picks Dillashaw because he believes Dillashaw's wrestling and grappling defense will neutralize Sterling's best weapons. He notes that Dillashaw has never been held down or submitted, and that Sterling tends to gas when he can't impose his grappling. He also points out that Dillashaw's pressure and ability to take easy targets will wear on Sterling, similar to how Munoz gave him trouble.

"I'm gonna pick TJ Dillashaw. It feels too right for the fights he wins and the fight Sterling loses."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Daniel Levi leans toward Aljamain Sterling to defend his belt, but is not confident. He respects Sterling's back control and jiu-jitsu, noting that even Petr Yan couldn't escape his backpack. However, he questions Sterling's durability and cardio, thinking he can wilt in later rounds. Levi also notes that T.J. Dillashaw is 37, coming off an ACL tear and a long layoff, and is no longer in his prime. He thinks Sterling's youth and confidence in his strengths give him the edge, but he has no bet on this fight because he doesn't have a strong read.

"I'm a lean algeman to to make it happen to steal some of these rounds but not confident I don't have a bet on this fight for a reason."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Dillashaw has solid wrestling and takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He is the better striker and can counter Sterling's entries. Sterling's best path is grappling, but Dillashaw's movement and pivots make him hard to catch. Dillashaw by decision at +300 or moneyline at +150 are both appealing.

Dillashaw by decision at +300; Dillashaw by KO at +500

"I love the underdog price here on the snake TJ Dillashaw I think that he has the perfect stylistic approach here to deal with al-jamin Sterling"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Paul struggles to get to Sterling at -175, acknowledging Sterling's talent but questioning whether his grappling will work on Dillashaw. He notes Dillashaw's takedown defense historically, and that Sterling may not be able to hold him down. Paul mentions Dillashaw's strong later rounds and volume striking. He is picking Dillashaw for the show but is unsure about betting, possibly looking at round props.

round 4 or round 5 props (maybe)

"for the purpose of the show I'm picking delish uh don't know if I'm gonna get there from a betting perspective"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling over T.J. Dillashaw by submission. He argues Sterling is underrated, citing his wins over Yan, Sandhagen, and Munoz. He believes Dillashaw gives up his back and that Sterling will hurt him on the feet before securing a rear-naked choke in the second round.

rear naked choke late second round

"I'm gonna go with Al Jermaine Sterling over TJ Dillashaw"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Zane also picks Dillashaw, citing that Dillashaw is a uniquely bad matchup for Sterling due to his ability to stuff takedowns and avoid submission. He notes that Sterling's path to victory is narrow and relies on early chaos, but Dillashaw's experience and durability make him the safer bet. He also mentions that Dillashaw's wrestling-heavy approach against Sandhagen shows he can adapt.

"I gotta pick Dillashaw. It's weird because I would pick Yan over Dillashaw, but I think Dillashaw is a uniquely bad matchup for Sterling."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Petr Yan

Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling	0	62 of 110	56%	91 of 143	2 of 22	9%	0	0	8:31
Petr Yan	0	63 of 103	61%	139 of 186	0 of 0	---	0	0	5:52

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Aljamain Sterling	19 of 40	47%	20 of 41	0 of 2	0%	0:00
1	Petr Yan	13 of 26	50%	13 of 26	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Aljamain Sterling	17 of 29	58%	42 of 55	1 of 2	50%	3:50
2	Petr Yan	4 of 5	80%	21 of 24	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Aljamain Sterling	6 of 13	46%	8 of 18	1 of 4	25%	3:43
3	Petr Yan	8 of 15	53%	20 of 27	0 of 0	---	0:07
4	Aljamain Sterling	8 of 10	80%	8 of 10	0 of 4	0%	0:00
4	Petr Yan	18 of 25	72%	48 of 57	0 of 0	---	3:51
5	Aljamain Sterling	12 of 18	66%	13 of 19	0 of 10	0%	0:58
5	Petr Yan	20 of 32	62%	37 of 52	0 of 0	---	1:54

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aljamain Sterling	62 of 110	56%	29 of 66	26 of 35	7 of 9	42 of 84	5 of 7	15 of 19
Petr Yan	63 of 103	61%	32 of 71	17 of 18	14 of 14	46 of 80	8 of 11	9 of 12

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aljamain Sterling	19 of 40	47%	5 of 22	11 of 14	3 of 4	19 of 40	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Petr Yan	13 of 26	50%	7 of 20	4 of 4	2 of 2	12 of 25	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	17 of 29	58%	14 of 20	1 of 6	2 of 3	3 of 11	0 of 0	14 of 18
2	Petr Yan	4 of 5	80%	1 of 2	1 of 1	2 of 2	3 of 4	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Aljamain Sterling	6 of 13	46%	2 of 8	4 of 5	0 of 0	4 of 11	1 of 1	1 of 1
3	Petr Yan	8 of 15	53%	2 of 9	2 of 2	4 of 4	7 of 13	1 of 2	0 of 0
4	Aljamain Sterling	8 of 10	80%	2 of 4	6 of 6	0 of 0	6 of 8	2 of 2	0 of 0
4	Petr Yan	18 of 25	72%	10 of 17	4 of 4	4 of 4	9 of 13	4 of 5	5 of 7
5	Aljamain Sterling	12 of 18	66%	6 of 12	4 of 4	2 of 2	10 of 14	2 of 4	0 of 0
5	Petr Yan	20 of 32	62%	12 of 23	6 of 7	2 of 2	15 of 25	1 of 2	4 of 5

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Angelo picks Petr Yan by decision. He notes that Yan was winning the first fight and has better takedown defense (90%). He expects more of the same without the illegal knee, though he acknowledges Sterling's striking stats were close. He thinks Yan is safe for parlays.

Safe for parlay piece; suggests parlay with Volkanovski, Yan, and Chimaev.

"i gotta go with pyotr here he was landing the more powerful strikes in their first fight he was controlling the grappling ... i like pyotr to win but i do think it's by decision"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win by fourth-round knockout. He references the first fight where Yan was winning before the illegal knee, and expects a similar pattern: Yan starts slow, builds into the fight, and takes over in later rounds. Yan's wrestling, cardio, and finishing ability are superior. Sterling may have a better game plan but Yan is the better five-round fighter.

fourth round knockout

"i like yon to finish sterling i'm gonna say fourth round knockout"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Cody picks Yan but is worried about a potential upset. He thinks Sterling needs to fight an ultra-conservative game plan of jabbing and kicking, using the big octagon to avoid Yan's power. Cody notes Sterling's neck surgery and layoff, while Yan is active and experienced. He considers a draw possible if Sterling wins three rounds but gets 10-8'd in one. Ultimately, he sticks with Yan but with reservations.

draw +2800 (mentioned as possibility)

"yeah yawn for me as well but man i'm worried about it and i got like a snagging suspicion that there could be a potential apple pie [ __ ] in play"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)

Petr Yan

Levi considers Yan the undisputed champion and a master of adjustments. He criticizes Sterling's durability and cardio, noting that Yan's pressure and reads will lead to a faster start this time. He expects Yan to crowd Sterling, negate his unorthodox kicks, and eventually finish by TKO. He has parlayed Yan with Ian Garry.

Parlay: Petr Yan + Ian Garry

"i think yan is the actual master of making these adjustments and i think that he's going to come out here i think he's got something for algo this time"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Petr Yan

I think Yan gets stronger as the fight goes on and will find Sterling's chin. Sterling doesn't have the cardio to implement a 15-20 minute game plan. Yan will finish him late. I like Yan round 4/5/decision at -180 on FanDuel. The line is skewed due to public perception of Sterling.

Yan round 4/5/decision -180 (FanDuel)

"I like the Pyotr Yan side here... I think he finishes Aljamain Sterling at a certain point... Yan round four round five decision sitting at minus 180 I think that's a damn good line."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Paul picks Yan, citing Yan's ability to calculate opponents and improve as the fight goes on, plus having four rounds of data from the first fight. He notes Sterling's wrestling was only 1 of 12 on takedowns and that he couldn't keep the pace for five rounds. Paul thinks Yan starts better this time and wins, though he doesn't love the -490 price.

"i think yawn wins again i i'm not too scared i don't love the minus minus nearly minus 500 but uh yawn for me"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan by decision, expecting a close fight. He thinks Sterling will win the first two rounds but Yan will edge the later rounds, winning 48-47. He criticizes Sterling's reaction to the illegal knee and notes Yan's toughness and strength. He believes Sterling will be more reserved, giving Yan time to figure him out.

decision prediction, 48-47

"i'm going to go with pyotean by decision razor close 4847"

THE MMA GURU

View all 23 fights

Petr Yan - Fight History

WIN vs Merab Dvalishvili

Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili	0	134 of 383	34%	196 of 458	2 of 29	6%	2	1	5:12
Petr Yan	0	139 of 230	60%	159 of 251	5 of 9	55%	0	0	2:55

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Merab Dvalishvili	22 of 68	32%	40 of 87	0 of 8	0%	0	0	1:33
1	Petr Yan	17 of 32	53%	23 of 38	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
2	Merab Dvalishvili	19 of 73	26%	41 of 97	0 of 5	0%	0	1	2:06
2	Petr Yan	21 of 34	61%	25 of 38	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:34
3	Merab Dvalishvili	21 of 62	33%	32 of 77	2 of 7	28%	0	0	1:07
3	Petr Yan	25 of 46	54%	33 of 55	1 of 2	50%	0	0	0:19
4	Merab Dvalishvili	37 of 71	52%	43 of 80	0 of 4	0%	1	0	0:15
4	Petr Yan	38 of 55	69%	40 of 57	1 of 2	50%	0	0	1:14
5	Merab Dvalishvili	35 of 109	32%	40 of 117	0 of 5	0%	1	0	0:11
5	Petr Yan	38 of 63	60%	38 of 63	2 of 4	50%	0	0	0:48

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Merab Dvalishvili	134 of 383	34%	105 of 341	22 of 34	7 of 8	116 of 353	18 of 30	0 of 0
Petr Yan	139 of 230	60%	109 of 195	17 of 19	13 of 16	119 of 204	18 of 24	2 of 2

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Merab Dvalishvili	22 of 68	32%	16 of 60	4 of 6	2 of 2	18 of 63	4 of 5	0 of 0
1	Petr Yan	17 of 32	53%	15 of 30	1 of 1	1 of 1	17 of 31	0 of 1	0 of 0
2	Merab Dvalishvili	19 of 73	26%	19 of 71	0 of 2	0 of 0	17 of 69	2 of 4	0 of 0
2	Petr Yan	21 of 34	61%	18 of 31	1 of 1	2 of 2	21 of 34	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Merab Dvalishvili	21 of 62	33%	18 of 57	3 of 5	0 of 0	15 of 52	6 of 10	0 of 0
3	Petr Yan	25 of 46	54%	20 of 40	5 of 6	0 of 0	16 of 34	7 of 10	2 of 2
4	Merab Dvalishvili	37 of 71	52%	28 of 60	7 of 8	2 of 3	34 of 67	3 of 4	0 of 0
4	Petr Yan	38 of 55	69%	28 of 44	6 of 6	4 of 5	32 of 48	6 of 7	0 of 0
5	Merab Dvalishvili	35 of 109	32%	24 of 93	8 of 13	3 of 3	32 of 102	3 of 7	0 of 0
5	Petr Yan	38 of 63	60%	28 of 50	4 of 5	6 of 8	33 of 57	5 of 6	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his insane pace, cardio, and improvement since the first fight. He questions what has changed for Petr Yan to win the rematch, noting that Merab dominated the first fight with 11 takedowns. He believes Merab's pressure and takedowns will be too much for Yan again, and he is surprised the odds are only -450.

"I'm on the Morab side. I think the insane pressure, the insane cardio, all the things that have him nicknamed the machine have him win this fight."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)

Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili, noting his dominant performance in the first fight. He acknowledges Yan may have been compromised but still favors Dvalishvili's wrestling and pace. He expects Dvalishvili to win by decision, as he always does.

Dvalishvili by decision

"I'm going to take Morad Deval Philly to win this fight how he always wins fights and that is going to be by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Merab Dvalishvili

Cody is fully behind Merab, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He notes that Merab took Yan down 11 times in their first fight and has since dominated Olympic gold medalist Cejudo and Umar. He believes Merab will again win by decision, as Yan is durable and hard to finish. He mentions the decision prop at minus 300 but prefers the money line.

"Morab does what Morab does. And frankly, this is like such a lame kind of breakdown, I suppose, from me, but it's like until I'm going to just keep putting money on Morab."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Merab Dvalishvili

Connor argues that Merab has only improved since their first fight, becoming a more purposeful striker who uses takedown threats effectively. He notes that Petr Yan has lost the aggressive instinct that once allowed him to change fights with single shots, and now fights more cautiously, which plays into Merab's relentless pace. Connor believes Yan's multi-stage game can be disrupted by Merab's constant pressure, making it hard for Yan to build initiative. He concludes that while Yan has the power to win, it's a lot to gamble on.

Odds: Merab opened -260, now -415; Yan opened +220, now +315. Notes that Yan hasn't stopped anyone in 5 years and hasn't scored a knockdown since the Sandhagen fight.

"You have to pick Merab. High-level fight. Meaningful."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)

Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel believes Merab's relentless pace and takedown volume will overwhelm Petr Yan, who tends to take rounds off to make reads. He notes Merab's improvements since their first fight, including 20 takedowns against Cory Sandhagen. Daniel doubts Yan can bridge the output gap and sees Merab as the clear best bantamweight. He mentions the fight is a pass for betting due to poor odds on Merab.

"I'm picking Morab in this spot, man. I really am."

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Lucrative James acknowledges Merab's dominance but believes the betting line of -450 is too wide. He notes Petr Yan was likely injured in the first fight and has had time to recover. He thinks Yan can compete in minutes and moments, potentially squeaking out a decision win. He emphasizes value betting and picks Yan at +350 odds.

"I'm going to go out and say that Peter Yan is the betting pick for this show for me for this fight."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Merab Dvalishvili

The host notes that Dvalishvili won the first fight easily as a +250 underdog and is now a -450 favorite for good reason. He expects Yan to be more aggressive but believes Dvalishvili's pace, pressure, and activity will make it hard for Yan to land impactful shots, leading to a decision win for Dvalishvili.

win by decision; odds comment: plus 250 underdog first fight, now minus 450 favorite

"Jan might be a little bit more aggressive this time around but I think Dvalish Philly will make it hard for Yan to land an impactful enough shot... win this fight on the scorecards and still bantamweight champion."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Merab Dvalishvili

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Merab's wrestling and decision victory. He points out that Yan has lost rounds to lesser fighters like Song Dong and Marcus McGhee, while Merab has only improved. He notes that Yan is a slow starter and Merab's pressure negates his striking combinations. He concludes that Merab by decision is the play.

"He got 50-45 to cross the board on all three judges scorecards. On top of that, he got taken down 11 times."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Merab Dvalishvili

The Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili over Petr Yan, despite the wide odds. He notes Merab's relentless takedown volume and cardio will overwhelm Yan, though Yan will have moments. The Guru predicts a 48-47 decision for Merab.

"I've got Morab 48 47, man."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Merab Dvalishvili

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Merab's style heavily favors him. He points out that Yan's game relies on building initiative through counter-punching and then pressuring, but Merab never allows that foothold. Zane notes that even when Yan defends takedowns well, Merab's constant attacks prevent Yan from establishing his own offense. He highlights that Yan's last three fights show a loss of confidence and aggression, making it unlikely he can replicate the moments of violence that defined his prime.

Same odds commentary as Connor.

"It's really hard to see a version of this where Merab just doesn't get..."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Marcus McGhee

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Petr Yan	0	81 of 146	55%	130 of 202	1 of 3	33%	0	0	3:11
Marcus McGhee	0	64 of 170	37%	66 of 173	0 of 4	0%	0	0	0:30

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Petr Yan	22 of 43	51%	24 of 45	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Marcus McGhee	22 of 55	40%	23 of 57	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Petr Yan	33 of 64	51%	37 of 69	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Marcus McGhee	34 of 93	36%	35 of 94	0 of 2	0%	0:15
3	Petr Yan	26 of 39	66%	69 of 88	1 of 3	33%	3:11
3	Marcus McGhee	8 of 22	36%	8 of 22	0 of 2	0%	0:15

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Petr Yan	81 of 146	55%	63 of 122	10 of 12	8 of 12	58 of 114	23 of 32	0 of 0
Marcus McGhee	64 of 170	37%	44 of 128	8 of 18	12 of 24	62 of 165	2 of 5	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Petr Yan	22 of 43	51%	14 of 31	4 of 4	4 of 8	15 of 33	7 of 10	0 of 0
1	Marcus McGhee	22 of 55	40%	15 of 41	2 of 5	5 of 9	20 of 52	2 of 3	0 of 0
2	Petr Yan	33 of 64	51%	28 of 58	4 of 5	1 of 1	25 of 54	8 of 10	0 of 0
2	Marcus McGhee	34 of 93	36%	25 of 72	5 of 12	4 of 9	34 of 91	0 of 2	0 of 0
3	Petr Yan	26 of 39	66%	21 of 33	2 of 3	3 of 3	18 of 27	8 of 12	0 of 0
3	Marcus McGhee	8 of 22	36%	4 of 15	1 of 1	3 of 6	8 of 22	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Petr Yan vs. Marcus McGhee
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Yan (-375); McGhee (+275)

Round 1
After years of hovering around top-five matchups, Yan (18-5, 10-4 UFC) gets a much-needed layup in the form of rising talent McGhee (10-1, 4-0 UFC). The MMA Lab product introduced himself to the organization in 2023, and has since rattled off three stoppages and a decision victory over Jonathan Martinez to reach this place in line. The sole arbiter of the bout will be referee Dan Movahedi, who tells the bantamweights it’s time to fight. They fight, but not before bumping fists.
Yan moves straight to the center of the Octagon, where he operates out of range from the kicks of McGhee. Yan keeps his lead hand outstretched to help him parry oncoming fire, so McGhee kicks him in the calf and then the ribs. McGhee tries to crash forward to throw hands, and Yan brushes him aside and keeps himself positioned directly in front of McGhee. Yan crisply counters a body kick with an overhand right, and he blocks a right hand coming back his way. McGhee connects partially over the top, but Yan shrugs it off and hits him back three times. They come together, and Yan knocks him back with a left hand and then kicks his leg out from beneath him. McGhee springs back up, and Yan goes back to hammering the front leg. His check left hook wobbles “The Maniac,” who has to jog to the side to get his legs back. From there, McGhee steps in with a knee to the body. Yan smacks his front leg in response.
McGhee tries to crowd his man, but Yan is able to duck and move, all while looking for a counter. McGhee secures a body kick without taking anything back, and he zips out of the way of danger and plants three punches on the Russian’s mug. He chains a few more behind it, and he circles back and away to draw Yan in. McGhee kicks the front calf and starts trading in a clinch, with both men shooting off uppercuts in a 135-pound trade exchange reminiscent of Don Frye’s magical battle in Pride. Yan takes punches and gives them back hard, including an uppercut that just brushes past the hair. McGhee lands a few shots, gets kicked in response, and he tags Yan and appears to buckle his legs for a moment. McGhee lets Yan recover, kicking at him before the one-minute break.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Yan

Round 2
Fans cheer and chant for Yan as soon as the round begins, and he takes their energy and channels it into a crisp right hand on the jaw. Yan overswings his way in, and McGhee ducks and shoots in for a takedown. The Russian shuts down the effort and misses two looping hooks by a matter of inches. McGhee wings a left hook at him that pounds into the guard, and they knock one another back with single power punches. McGhee cracks Yan again with a one-two, and he puts two more on the chin and then kicks the front leg. McGhee connects with a solid uppercut that splits the guard, and his low kick on the way out disrupts Yan from countering. They clash their heads together coming in, and Yan winds up with everything he has and smashes his right fist into McGhee’s jaw. The rising talent stumbles, and Yan measures him and blasts him with a number of left hands that rip open a cut on McGhee’s eyebrow. McGhee is unafraid to stand and bang, firing back at Yan and even catching him with an uppercut.
Yan shrugs the strikes off so he can unload a right hand on the chin, and he slips a strike and rips a left hand over the top. McGhee digs a right to the body and Yan knocks him back with a right and a left upstairs. McGhee is tough but getting outpowered at this point, and Yan thinks about mixing things up with his trip try. McGhee loops punches around the guard, but Yan’s are far more impactful, including a jab that knocks McGhee back several steps. McGhee strides forward to put a knee on the chin, and Yan strings together punches up top that lead to body shots in an effective combination. The jab of Yan is tripled before he fires off power punches, and his combinations are in full effect, like a knee into a right hand and then a low kick. McGhee tags the former champ with a clean one-two, and Yan takes a second and then comes back firing. McGhee tries a wheel kick, but Yan is much too close and reaches him with his fists when McGhee turns. The horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Yan

Round 3
Supporting chants for Yan echo through the Etihad Arena, and he knows it and is excited by it. Rushing out of his corner to engage in the final frame, he gets in front of McGhee and is about to start banging. McGhee backs him away with low kicks and jabs, including one where he nearly kicks the Russian’s leg out, but Yan recovers and stands him up with a powerful left hand on the temple. Yan lets McGhee duck down so he can time uppercuts on him, and he shucks McGhee aside on a second attempt to elbow him with impunity. Yan checks a kick and rattles off a combination to the body, with McGhee rebounding off the cage wall to recover. Yan lands a low kick, and then checks one coming back. McGhee’s flying knee fails, as Yan watches it miss him, and Yan counters with a double-leg entry. McGhee turns, so Yan grips him from behind and knees him in the back of the thigh. Yan imposes his weight on McGhee from behind, and Movahedi asks for them for more than holding on.
Movahedi calls for the bantamweights to do more a second time, and Yan answers his call by kneeing McGhee repeatedly to the thigh and wrapped up around the guard to the head. Yan wrenches McGhee down to the floor, and McGee muscles his way to his feet and still has Yan’s hands clasped around his waist. Yan grinds and beats on the thighs of his foe, with the action less-than-thrilling but effective in peeling time off the clock. McGhee turns to put his back against the fencing, and Yan is warned for striking to the back of his head when McGhee tries to take the fight down. They split up, and Yan boots him in the face with his shin. The patented Yan trip results in him hurling McGhee to the mat, and he isolates an arm to grip a kimura. McGhee explodes to his knees and then to the wall, leaning on it as the match concludes. The two men are fired up and hug it out after 15 minutes of combat.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)

The Official Result
Petr Yan def. Marcus McGhee via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Angelo picks Petr Yan, citing his phenomenal striking, underrated wrestling, and experience. He notes Marcus McGhee is powerful and well-rounded but had his legs chewed up in his last fight, and Yan has great kicks. He feels Yan's body of work and youth give him the edge, though he calls the fight a potential trap.

"The pick is going to be Poder, but this fight feels like a trap. And Marcus absolutely has the ability to play spoiler here."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan, calling the matchup a huge step down for Yan. He notes Yan has beaten top competition while McGhee's wins are over unranked fighters. He believes Yan's striking and experience will be too much, and predicts a decision win.

decision

"I have to give Pota Yan here. ... I'll take him to win this fight by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Connor acknowledges McGhee's potential if he pressures Yan, but notes McGhee's tentativeness in the Martinez fight and his tendency to start slow. He believes Yan's counter-punching and ability to fight off the back foot will be too much, especially over three rounds. He also highlights Yan's takedown threat as a factor.

"I have to think Piotr Jan is just in a better position to win this."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Yan has issues in three-round fights due to his slow start, but he should turn the tide around the midpoint of the second round and pull away in deep water. The host would think twice about paying the chalk on Yan because of his slow starting nature.

Yan by decision, caution on betting

"I'm going to go Yan by decision, but I would think twice about paying that chalk on him considering his slow starting nature."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan, noting the five-round fight favors Yan's experience and cardio. He acknowledges Marcus McGhee's skills but believes Yan is a different level, citing Yan's wins over Aldo and others. He predicts Yan loses the first round but wins the second and third, possibly with a 10-8 third round or a finish, resulting in a 29-28 decision.

"I'm going to say that Yan gets this one done. Tricky first round for him that's close and competitive, but he loses the first round. ... Second and third round, he picks up the pressure, beats up on Marcus McGee."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that McGhee's best path is to pressure Yan early, but his recent fight against Martinez showed he can be hesitant. He believes Yan's combination punching and experience will prevail, and that McGhee's handsy defense will leave openings for Yan's counters.

"Yeah, I agree."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Deiveson Figueiredo

Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Petr Yan	0	121 of 193	62%	190 of 263	1 of 4	25%	0	1	3:21
Deiveson Figueiredo	0	53 of 119	44%	53 of 119	2 of 8	25%	0	0	3:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Petr Yan	6 of 6	100%	42 of 42	0 of 0	---	1	2:21
1	Deiveson Figueiredo	1 of 1	100%	1 of 1	1 of 2	50%	0	1:58
2	Petr Yan	32 of 49	65%	32 of 49	1 of 1	100%	0	0:02
2	Deiveson Figueiredo	10 of 30	33%	10 of 30	0 of 3	0%	0	0:00
3	Petr Yan	21 of 36	58%	28 of 44	0 of 0	---	0	0:54
3	Deiveson Figueiredo	13 of 25	52%	13 of 25	1 of 1	100%	0	0:06
4	Petr Yan	25 of 40	62%	50 of 65	0 of 0	---	0	0:04
4	Deiveson Figueiredo	14 of 30	46%	14 of 30	0 of 2	0%	0	0:55
5	Petr Yan	37 of 62	59%	38 of 63	0 of 3	0%	0	0:00
5	Deiveson Figueiredo	15 of 33	45%	15 of 33	0 of 0	---	0	0:01

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Petr Yan	121 of 193	62%	78 of 142	18 of 21	25 of 30	103 of 172	13 of 15	5 of 6
Deiveson Figueiredo	53 of 119	44%	23 of 75	24 of 36	6 of 8	49 of 112	4 of 7	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Petr Yan	6 of 6	100%	5 of 5	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 1	1 of 1	4 of 4
1	Deiveson Figueiredo	1 of 1	100%	0 of 0	1 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Petr Yan	32 of 49	65%	12 of 26	6 of 6	14 of 17	31 of 48	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Deiveson Figueiredo	10 of 30	33%	6 of 21	3 of 7	1 of 2	10 of 29	0 of 1	0 of 0
3	Petr Yan	21 of 36	58%	16 of 28	1 of 3	4 of 5	18 of 32	2 of 2	1 of 2
3	Deiveson Figueiredo	13 of 25	52%	4 of 15	6 of 7	3 of 3	13 of 25	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Petr Yan	25 of 40	62%	19 of 33	5 of 5	1 of 2	21 of 35	4 of 5	0 of 0
4	Deiveson Figueiredo	14 of 30	46%	4 of 15	8 of 12	2 of 3	12 of 26	2 of 4	0 of 0
5	Petr Yan	37 of 62	59%	26 of 50	6 of 7	5 of 5	32 of 56	5 of 6	0 of 0
5	Deiveson Figueiredo	15 of 33	45%	9 of 24	6 of 9	0 of 0	13 of 31	2 of 2	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Round 1
A big one at 135 pounds wraps up this fight card, with a possible title challenger emerging depending on the result. Former beltholder Yan (17-5, 9-4 UFC) has struggled as of late but did right the ship in March with a decision over Yadong Song. On the other side of the cage stands ex-flyweight kingpin Figueiredo (24-3-1, 13-3-1 UFC), whose run at the new division has gone swimmingly thus far with three wins in three appearances. Whether he makes it four in the next 25 minutes or less, referee Mike Beltran and his outstanding moustache will be here for it every step of the way. As he brings them to the center of the cage to issue final instructions, the combatants eagerly bump their fists together. Yan starts aggressively, backing the Brazilian off early. Figueiredo strikes first with a body kick and shoots for a takedown, and Yan defends the double but falls victim to an inside trip takedown. Figueiredo lands in the guard, with Yan smacking him off his back. Yan tries to elevate and sweep his opponent, and Figueiredo hangs on from above when Yan turns to his knees. Figueiredo looks to keep Yan grounded, staying heavy on Yan’s back and following Yan when he rolls. Yan elbows from behind, bopping Figueiredo on the nose a few times as the bantamweights keep twisting and turning. Yan uses elbows to the thigh to break up a partial leg grip around him, and this results in Figueiredo getting both hooks in and taking the back. Figueiredo looks for a body triangle, and Yan maintains a two-on-one wrist lock so he can explode and twist around to claim top position. Yan gets off a single elbow before Figueiredo grips hold of him with all of his might, and Yan drags him to put his neck on the corner of the fence and the floor. Yan covers the Brazilian’s mouth when not driving his elbow into his face, and he postures up every so often to land a strike. Yan drills his man with a solid right hammerfist and an elbow with his other arm, forcing Figueiredo to turn to his side in an escape attempt. Figueiredo bucks and kicks, but Yan stays above him scoring a solid right hand. As Figueiredo leaps back to his feet, Yan knees him hard, and he kicks the front leg while Figueiredo circles away to end the round. 10-9 Yan.

Round 2
The bantamweights re-engage after five minutes of largely grappling, with Yan setting up punches and a head kick with a low kick. Figueiredo walks through a stomping kick to his knee to fire off his own head kick, and Yan blocks it and blasts the front leg with his shin. Figueiredo sits down on a clubbing right hand that sends Yan backpedaling, and it is one-and-done so Yan recovers without issue. Yan strikes again with a low kick, and he kicks high. Yan is warned for outstretched fingers, and he belts the Brazilian in the body with his foot. A level change from Figueiredo is easily thwarted, and Yan chops at his front leg when his foe backs off. Figueiredo absorbs a head kick, blocks a second and retaliates with one to the ribs. Yan steps in with a right hook, and he brings up a knee shield to defend a body kick. Figueiredo whizzes past his man to connect a right hand, and he spins with a wheel kick and misses the mark. A second power right from Figueiredo wobbles Yan’s legs, and he spins with a back kick that pounds into the ribcage. Yan bounces off the wall and gets his bearings, with Figueiredo not committing to anything additional. Yan kicks the lead leg and then reaches out with a left hand, and Figueiredo trips and hits the floor but climbs up without concern. A jumping switch kick from Figueiredo bounces off the guard, and he lunges in with a right hand and checks a leg kick. Yan plants a left hand on the cheek, stuffs a takedown and does it again. Two clean punches from Yan make Figueiredo blink it out, and his fingers are pointed towards his opponent and draw another warning. They clash shins together with simultaneous kicks, and Figueiredo’s hooks get his foe’s attention. Yan pays him back with an elbow up close, and his kicks pepper “Daico” on the way out. Figueiredo wraps two hooks around the guard, and Yan keeps his fist outstretched to back Figueiredo off. Yan hits a clean trip and throw, and Figueiredo throws his legs up for a triangle as the bell sounds. 10-9 Figueiredo.

Round 3
The fighters are revved up and excited to get back to hitting one another in the face, so much so that Beltran has to back them off. When they start, it takes nearly 20 seconds before they strike. Yan jabs and kicks with his front leg, and Figueiredo hammers the body with a left hand. Yan chips at the front leg, backing away to block a body kick. Both fighters switch stances time and again directly in front of one another, and Figueiredo kicks his way into a tackling double-leg takedown. Yan’s scramble allows him to grab hold of one leg, and he is able to escape before long. Yan slams home a low kick, and he connects with a short but explosive uppercut that stuns and sends Figueiredo falling to his back. Yan climbs into the guard in hopes of finishing the job, but “Deus da Guerra” is hanging tight to protect himself from further damage. Figueiredo wall-walks and shoves Yan away, and Yan walks him down and boots him in the front leg. Figueiredo switches stances immediately, and Yan kicks him in the ribs but eats a right hand up top for his handiwork. The two crash together, and the impact sounds like they clacked heads. Figueiredo breaks out of the clinch and throws a haymaker from downtown, one that does not hit the broad side of a barn. Figueiredo hunts for a step-in trip, and he hand-fights Yan who is trying to box his way in. Figueiredo connects with a body kick, and he reaches out with a right hand as Yan shakes it off. Yan times a head kick, and Figueiredo boots him in the chest right back. Figueiredo splits the guard with a one-two, and a body shot makes Yan take a second to think about things. Figueiredo closes in on him and digs several uppercuts up the middle, and he appears to find a strike that is doing some serious damage. A few more uppercuts ring Figueiredo’s bell, and Yan leaps in the air to knee Figueiredo on the chin. Figueiredo gets his mouthpiece knocked out, and Beltran has him replace it. When Figueiredo puts the gumshield back in, he looses one final combination of strikes that lead him to the horn. 10-9 Yan.

Round 4
It is championship round time, and both men still appear to have a full head of steam. Figueiredo rushes out of his corner to engage, lobbing kicks from both legs. Yan attempts a trip and throw, and he disrupts Figueiredo’s footwork to make him hit the floor. Figueiredo’s mad scramble gets him upright in seconds, and they resume from striking range. They hand-fight until Figueiredo kicks his man in the ribs. Figueiredo shoots for a double, and he leverages Yan to the wall when the first try fails. Figueiredo tries with a single, lifting Yan’s leg but not going anywhere. Yan pushes him away, and they reset. Yan times a powerful uppercut that knocks Figueiredo’s mouthpiece out, and he follows it with a head kick that is just blocked in time. Beltran waits until he has an opening to give the Brazilian back his mouthpiece, and he replaces it. Yan slaps Figueiredo in the face with his toes, and he slides back when Figueiredo bears down on him. The boxing of Yan allows him to slip a huge punch and uppercut Figueiredo cleanly, and when they are in close range, Figueiredo claims about glove grabs. Figueiredo dips down and fires off a body shot, and two punches go up top. Yan jabs and steps in with an elbow, and a piece of his tape on his thumb comes off. Figueiredo blasts the body with a ferocious left hand, and he ducks a looping strike for a takedown shot. Yan stifles the effort and just misses with a booming head kick, but he does connect with uppercuts and a flying knee when the two let loose. Figueiredo tries his own uppercut, and he blocks a head kick and comes over the top with a left. Figueiredo strides forward to unleash a right hand, and Yan goes flying. When Yan gets up, Figueiredo hurts his man in the body with follow-up strikes, and Yan steels himself and unloads a series of uppercuts until time expires. 10-9 Yan.

Round 5
Five minutes left to work, and the fighters touch ‘em up one last time. Yan hand-fights on his way into attack, and Figueiredo catches him with an uppercut. Yan tries to escape, but one left hand to the body gets his attention again. Yan attempts a big knee when Figueiredo is ducking, and it grazes off the red line on Figueiredo’s dome. Figueiredo gets clinched, eats a knee and an uppercut without landing anything before getting shoved back. Yan goes into boxer mode, pinning his punches on Figueiredo’s chin again and again. Figueiredo throws back with bad intentions, shaking his foe up with an elbow and a few mighty left hands. Figueiredo digs a kick to the body, and he watches as body kick soar past him. Figueiredo shoots, Yan sprawls and they reset. Yan steps in with a left hand, slides away and does not get tagged on the counter. Yan rifles off a left hand, and Figueiredo decides to pay him back with a clubbing right hook. Yan bounces off the fencing and absorbs a flush body shot, and he just misses with a huge uppercut. Yan spins with an elbow, and Figueiredo grins and tells him good work. Figueiredo points to the ground in what has been a gesture repeated frequently today, and Yan shrugs it off and times another spinning strike. Yan scores an elbow, and Figueiredo drives an elbow into the torso. Another elbow forces Figueiredo to back off, if only for a second, and Yan smacks him cleanly with a flying switch kick. Figueiredo boots him in the head with a question-mark kick, and he hurts the Russian with two huge right hands. Figueiredo rushes forward to attack, and both fighters duck down and crash together. Figueiredo goes hind quarters-over-tea kettle and falls off the back, and he jumps back up and walks Yan down, throwing everything he has at his opponent. Yan looks for a knee up the middle, and he belts the Brazilian’s body with his shin. Figueiredo swings hard, and he stops a takedown. Yan scores with one more left hand, and this terrific 25-minute engagement comes to a close. A few rounds were close, but one fighter appeared to outwork the other over the course of their “Fight of the Night”-worthy battle. Both men climb to the top of the cage to celebrate their handiwork, hugging it out and taking time to enjoy the crowd showering them with love. 10-9 Yan (49-46 Yan).
The thriller in the books, the victorious Yan is joined in the cage by his son, who it appears may be watching his father fight live for the very first time. Like the winner of the co-main event, Yan calls for another title shot, although he is two fights removed from the championship bout and not one like the strawweight from earlier. Even in defeat, Figueiredo is all smiles, appreciating Yan's handiwork and generally a happy camper. With that, UFC Macau is in the books, and there is no UFC next week as it is Thanksgiving week in America. Instead, PFL runs its championship event on Friday, which contains a remarkable 10 title fights. We will be there for each and every one, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Petr Yan def. Deiveson Figueiredo via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Angelo picks Petr Yan, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He acknowledges Figueiredo's improved wrestling and cardio at bantamweight but believes Yan's five-round experience and size advantage will be key. He admits a weird feeling about Figueiredo and may not bet.

"I am going to pick Jan because I think he's just going to be the better Striker he should be the bigger guy here and his takedown defense is very good"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win by decision. He thinks it's a bad matchup for Figueiredo, who is older (36), smaller, and a low-volume striker relying on power that likely won't hurt Yan. Yan is younger, has better cardio and volume, and is durable. Brady doesn't believe Figueiredo has the wrestling to take Yan down, as even Merab was unsuccessful. He expects Yan to outwork Figueiredo over five rounds, possibly with a late finish.

"I think this fight primarily does play out on the feet Yan's younger bigger better cardio better volume he's durable um I think it's a yawn win here and a yaan win probably by decision maybe a late finish but …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Cody picks Petr Yan because of his superior cardio and volume striking over five rounds. He notes Figueiredo is a power puncher with a limited gas tank who relies on early knockdowns and takedowns, but Yan's takedown defense and endless motor will allow him to outwork Figueiredo in the later rounds. He expects Yan to win by decision and sees a live betting opportunity if Yan starts slow.

Yan by decision

"I got yaan by decision I got the over on this fight going to be a good fight boy let me tell you but uh I'm gonna go with Peter Jan to get the job done"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Yan because Figueiredo's cautious, low-output style and declining speed play into Yan's strengths. He notes that Yan's confidence may be shaken but Figueiredo won't pressure him early like Merab did. Connor also highlights that Figueiredo's gas tank is worse and he may be content to lose a quiet decision, which suits Yan's late-round surge.

Same odds commentary as Zane.

"I got a big Yan, but I like the fight. I think it's the right time to have this fight."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Daniel Vreeland believes Petr Yan will win despite being a slow starter. He expects Figueiredo to have early success with calf kicks and submission attempts, but as Yan makes his reads and gets his timing down, he will take over. Vreeland notes Yan's superior boxing and timing-based takedowns, and thinks Yan can either finish late or win a decision. He is confident Yan dictates the pace and pulls away.

late finish or decision

"I'm going to go Peter uh either late finish or decision but I expect this to be an incredible fight between two Legends"

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

James picks Petr Yan to win but is hesitant due to the -300 price tag, which he considers too wide. He acknowledges Yan's superior striking volume and five-round experience, but notes Figueiredo's one-punch power and athleticism could cause an upset. He believes the fight is likely a 48-47 decision for Yan, but may take a small position on Figueiredo based on value.

"I'll pick pet y but I think davidon figur has a very good chance to win this fight"

Lucrative MMA

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Figueiredo would be a live dog in a three-round fight but cannot maintain the pace over five rounds. He highlights Yan's endless gas tank and the fact that Figueiredo cannot replicate Merab's takedown volume. Paul thinks Yan wins on volume and suggests a live bet if Yan starts slow, but warns the line may move quickly.

"I think Yan wins on volume I think it's a much better live bet um just wait wait out the first few rounds"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan over Deiveson Figueiredo, emphasizing the five-round advantage. He argues Figueiredo is explosive early but fades, while Yan's cardio and boxing improve as the fight goes on. He predicts Yan will weather early storms, then take over in later rounds with takedowns and ground and pound, finishing Figueiredo in round four or five. He compares it to Yan's fight against Jose Aldo. He notes Figueiredo's wins over Cody Garbrandt, Rob Font, and Marlon Vera but believes Yan's boxing is crisper than Moreno's.

finishes in round four or five by TKO (ground and pound)

"I'm going to say that Peter Yan finishes Davison figuro in round four or five to ground and pound"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Zane picks Petr Yan, arguing that Yan's process-oriented fighting style, which builds through rounds, will overcome Figueiredo's declining speed and output. He notes that Figueiredo has lost some speed and relies on strength and caution, but Yan's ability to adapt and pressure late in fights gives him the edge. Zane also mentions that Yan's confidence issues stem from the Merab fight, but Figueiredo's style won't exploit that as effectively.

Yan opened at -235, now -308; Figueiredo opened +202, now +258. Zane says 'you can't get too wide on Figueiredo' and 'can't trust Yan too much right now.'

"My gut is telling me very strongly to pick Petr Yan in this fight. I think this is going to be a good mojo recovery fight for him."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Song Yadong

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Petr Yan	0	99 of 183	54%	129 of 217	2 of 5	40%	0	0	1:47
Song Yadong	0	86 of 172	50%	104 of 192	1 of 8	12%	0	0	1:40

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Petr Yan	22 of 35	62%	23 of 36	0 of 1	0%	0:00
1	Song Yadong	20 of 37	54%	22 of 40	1 of 2	50%	0:49
2	Petr Yan	41 of 77	53%	61 of 98	1 of 1	100%	0:33
2	Song Yadong	31 of 66	46%	40 of 75	0 of 4	0%	0:41
3	Petr Yan	36 of 71	50%	45 of 83	1 of 3	33%	1:14
3	Song Yadong	35 of 69	50%	42 of 77	0 of 2	0%	0:10

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Petr Yan	99 of 183	54%	68 of 142	22 of 31	9 of 10	86 of 170	4 of 4	9 of 9
Song Yadong	86 of 172	50%	71 of 147	9 of 15	6 of 10	79 of 164	5 of 6	2 of 2

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Petr Yan	22 of 35	62%	9 of 19	6 of 8	7 of 8	22 of 35	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Song Yadong	20 of 37	54%	15 of 30	1 of 2	4 of 5	17 of 33	1 of 2	2 of 2
2	Petr Yan	41 of 77	53%	31 of 62	10 of 15	0 of 0	35 of 71	1 of 1	5 of 5
2	Song Yadong	31 of 66	46%	26 of 56	4 of 7	1 of 3	28 of 63	3 of 3	0 of 0
3	Petr Yan	36 of 71	50%	28 of 61	6 of 8	2 of 2	29 of 64	3 of 3	4 of 4
3	Song Yadong	35 of 69	50%	30 of 61	4 of 6	1 of 2	34 of 68	1 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Yadong Song vs. Petr Yan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Yan (-115), Song (-105)

Round 1
His back against the wall, former bantamweight champ Yan (16-5, 8-4 UFC) has lost four of his last five after charging into the UFC to win seven straight. On the other side of the cage, Team Alpha Male’s Song (21-7-1, 1 NC; 10-2-1 UFC) has plenty of momentum on his side, winner of four of five to get himself a ranking next to his name. While not as big as the main event, there will be waves made from this bantamweight bout. It begins with referee Keith Peterson checking the fighters in, and they clap hands first. There will be no nonsense going forward. Song leads off with a low kick, and Yan throws one back only to get countered with a check left hook. Song comes up short with a low kick, and he fakes with a takedown that makes Yan oversell to try to stop it. Yan comes out firing with an overhand right, and Song eats it like a bowl of hot and numbing beef. Song wings a left hand that gets Yan’s attention, and he tries to launch it again but comes up just short. They engage in a stalemate when standing in front of one another, and Song hops out of the way and leaps forward with a left hand. Song doubles up on a jab and whips a right hand over the top, and Yan bends him over with a body shot. Song attacks with a combination, and Yan defends the worst of the blows and is ready to trade back, only to find his enemy is not to be found. Song counters a leg kick with a huge overhand right, and they both dip down at the same time but do not engage. Song tags him with a left hook, and he walks through a punch to land a sharp jab of his own. They both duck down at the same time again, and they nearly bounce heads. Song catches a leg kick and bangs his right hand into the temple, sending Yan down to the mat. Song follow him and tries to keep him down, but Yan scrambles wildly to work his way up to his feet. Yan tries to roll through to nearly escape and find himself in better position, but Song hangs on to stay on Yan from behind. Song lands a few right hands until Yan fights to his feet with 30 seconds to spare. Yan sneaks in a right hand and ducks a massive overhand right, and he bites on a faked takedown and awkwardly attacks his own. The round ends before a takedown is landed on either side.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 2
They bump fists before getting started, and Song says hello with a body kick. Yan races ahead, only to walk partially into an elbow. Song swings a left hook and shoots, and when Yan stands him up, Song elects to score several right hands before shoving the Russian to the wall. Song nails his man with an elbow, and Yan breaks off and ducks into an uppercut when trying to defend a takedown. Song eats an uppercut when shooting, and when he tries again, he takes another uppercut to the same spot. Yan sits down on his punches when Song walks him down, and he looks to defend a takedown and gets grabbed from behind. Song sticks out several jabs when breaking free, and he ducks square into an uppercut. Peterson calls time to remove some tape from Yan’s glove, and they cut it and move on. Yan restarts and aims two body shots, and he stops a takedown by tackling Song over. Song shrugs at him, and he takes a right hand for his effort. Song jabs, and he snatches up a single and lifts it in the air. Yan miraculously keeps his balance and drags his leg back, and he snaps out multiple jabs. The crowd starts chanting “let’s go Petr” as if the Miami fans had forgotten he is Russian, and Song takes energy from it and surges ahead. Yan beats him to the punch and aims shots to the body, and Song throws hands too hard and takes a clean uppercut. Yan digs a right to the body and leans back to avoid the big strike from his opponent, and he crashes forward to hit a clean takedown and plant Song on his back. Yan works the body and head as soon as they hit the ground, and he cuts Song open with elbows. The round ends as blood leans from above Song’s left eyebrow.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Yan

Round 3
The bantamweights meet in the center of the Octagon, and Yan swings a huge right hand that Song barely ducks. Song counters with a spinning kick that glances off the guard, and he gets his jab going. Yan aims an uppercut and shoots down for the ankle, and he spins around and works to his feet when he does not get Song down. Yan stings his opponent with a right and spins with a back kick, and Song doubles up on a jab and gets smacked in the head with a spinning wheel kick. Song is tough as nail, and he rushes forward to trade hands and surprises Yan with a right hand. Song goes after a single, and Yan bounces off and throws hard at his opponent. Song gets knocked to his hands, and he rebounds and eats a body shot in the midst of a combination. Yan aims a one-two to the body, and he shoulder rolls to avoid the counter. Song desperately pursues a takedown, and Yan crawls away. Song connects a left on the side of the head, and he gather his thoughts and spins with a back fist. Blood leaks down both of Song’s eyes, with cuts all over, and he completely ignores it so he can trade with his opponent. Yan beans him with a spinning back fist, and Song stands right in front of him and scores a heavy right hand back. Song takes a left hand on the jaw and gets shoved back to the fence, and he elbows Song and pursues a double. Yan turns the corner and plants Song on his seat with a minute to spare, and he sits in half guard and starts shellacking Song with elbows and punches. Yan gets dragged back to guard while striking, and he flows over to the side and elbows Song once for good measure. Song rolls to his stomach, and Yan holds him down with a brabo choke until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan (29-28 Yan)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Yan (29-28 Yan)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Yan (29-28 Yan)

The Official Result
Petr Yan def. Yadong Song via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Song Yadong

Angelo picks Song Yadong, feeling a changing of the guard. He notes Song hits hard, is fast, and can make the fight ugly, which is how you beat Yan. However, he acknowledges Yan is still very good and this is a tough test. He won't bet on it because it's too close.

Jacob has a good size bet on this fight with good odds (premium members can check).

"song is going to be the pick but for me this is too close of a fight too good of a fight I'm not going to bet on it"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win by decision, but has low confidence. He notes that Yan has lost four of his last five, but those losses were to top competition. He believes Yan's boxing and volume will edge out Song, who has more power but is less proven. He thinks the fight is razor thin and could go either way.

win by decision

"I'm going to take Pon here I'll take him to win this fight by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Song Yadong

Cody is concerned about Yan's slow starts and poor decision-making in recent fights. He thinks Song's takedown defense, volume, and durability make him a live underdog, especially in a three-round fight where Yan's slow starts could cost him.

"it's 50-50 fight I think s Yong is like the slight Underdog I would favor with the slight Underdog"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Daniel picks Yan to get back in the win column, but it's a lean. He believes Yan is not washed and has looked good in recent losses to elite competition. He notes Yan's takedown ability and diverse striking, but warns that Song is a massive bantamweight with heavy hands and can crack in the pocket. Daniel expects a competitive three-round war and thinks Yan's experience and technique will prevail, but acknowledges Song could knock him out.

"I'm actually G to go poo Yan here to get back in the win column but I expect this to be a very competitive um Dynamic three round bantamweight War"

Half the Battle

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Song Yadong

Daniel Vreeland also picks Song Yadong, emphasizing how Petr Yan has been losing. He notes that Yan's losses are to top competition but points to the Merab Dvalishvili fight where Yan was worn down by pace and wrestling. Vreeland believes Song's wrestling has improved and that he can take the first round against a slow-starting Yan. He argues that in a three-round fight, Song only needs to win the third round as Yan fades. Vreeland highlights Song's youth and upward trajectory as key factors.

"I'm with you I'm taking s you dong and I think the big piece for me too is the way that we're seeing Pon lose because obviously we can excuse losses to the types of guys he's losing to right …"

MMA Gambling Podcast

Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Song Yadong

Jeff Fox picks Song Yadong at even money, citing Petr Yan's three-fight losing streak and mental state concerns. He notes Song's continued improvement and youth, and believes Yan's slow starts in three-round fights are a liability. Fox thinks Song's wrestling has improved, as shown against Ricky Simon, and that he can tire Yan out by pushing the pace. He concludes that Yan refuses to win the first round, making him vulnerable.

"I can't trust P Yan at this point despite he's only lost to the top of the heap in the division but the fact is he is losing a lot consistently who knows where his mental state is at this …"

MMA Gambling Podcast

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Song Yadong

Yan is on a three-fight losing streak and has a low-output style that often leaves him behind on the scorecards early. Song Yadong has improved his takedown defense and mixes his striking with grappling well. He is likely to be the more aggressive fighter, using kicks and volume to win rounds. Yan has power and can turn a fight with one shot, but his tendency to give up early rounds is a concern. I lean Song Yadong by decision, but this is not a lock.

"I see this fight in favor of song considering that he likely will be the more aggressive of the two uh be able to stay busy enough with his kicks"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Paul gives Yan a pass for some recent losses, noting he has fought the best in the division. He believes Yan's experience and multiple paths to victory (striking, wrestling) will be enough to beat Song, who hasn't proven himself against top-tier competition.

"I'm gonna side with Peter Yan I'm gonna say he makes the adjustments to you know not take round one off and uh and gets the job done here"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Petr Yan

The MMA Guru switched from Song Yadong to Petr Yan after rewatching Song's fight with Chris Gutierrez. He argues Yan's compact style and catch-and-shoot counters will neutralize Song's power. He notes Song couldn't finish Gutierrez or Cory Sandhagen, and Yan's durability and boxing should win a striking match. He worries about Yan's three-fight losing streak but believes the aura is still there.

"I'm going to go Peter yam"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Merab Dvalishvili

Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili	0	75 of 143	52%	87 of 155	1 of 5	20%	0	0	1:50
Petr Yan	0	147 of 338	43%	202 of 401	11 of 49	22%	0	0	6:53

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Merab Dvalishvili	13 of 25	52%	20 of 32	0 of 1	0%	0:00
1	Petr Yan	22 of 62	35%	35 of 81	1 of 8	12%	1:10
2	Merab Dvalishvili	18 of 35	51%	21 of 38	1 of 1	100%	0:32
2	Petr Yan	35 of 80	43%	41 of 86	3 of 7	42%	0:59
3	Merab Dvalishvili	8 of 27	29%	9 of 28	0 of 1	0%	0:27
3	Petr Yan	15 of 46	32%	22 of 53	1 of 14	7%	1:34
4	Merab Dvalishvili	21 of 31	67%	21 of 31	0 of 1	0%	0:47
4	Petr Yan	38 of 75	50%	51 of 88	1 of 8	12%	1:01
5	Merab Dvalishvili	15 of 25	60%	16 of 26	0 of 1	0%	0:04
5	Petr Yan	37 of 75	49%	53 of 93	5 of 12	41%	2:09

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Merab Dvalishvili	75 of 143	52%	41 of 105	16 of 19	18 of 19	66 of 132	9 of 11	0 of 0
Petr Yan	147 of 338	43%	91 of 260	35 of 52	21 of 26	129 of 312	18 of 26	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Merab Dvalishvili	13 of 25	52%	4 of 15	2 of 2	7 of 8	11 of 23	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Petr Yan	22 of 62	35%	12 of 48	6 of 9	4 of 5	15 of 54	7 of 8	0 of 0
2	Merab Dvalishvili	18 of 35	51%	6 of 21	8 of 10	4 of 4	16 of 33	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Petr Yan	35 of 80	43%	19 of 59	8 of 11	8 of 10	32 of 75	3 of 5	0 of 0
3	Merab Dvalishvili	8 of 27	29%	5 of 23	1 of 2	2 of 2	6 of 23	2 of 4	0 of 0
3	Petr Yan	15 of 46	32%	10 of 37	5 of 8	0 of 1	13 of 41	2 of 5	0 of 0
4	Merab Dvalishvili	21 of 31	67%	15 of 25	4 of 4	2 of 2	18 of 28	3 of 3	0 of 0
4	Petr Yan	38 of 75	50%	24 of 55	10 of 15	4 of 5	36 of 72	2 of 3	0 of 0
5	Merab Dvalishvili	15 of 25	60%	11 of 21	1 of 1	3 of 3	15 of 25	0 of 0	0 of 0
5	Petr Yan	37 of 75	49%	26 of 61	6 of 9	5 of 5	33 of 70	4 of 5	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Angelo picks Petr Yan despite acknowledging Merab's relentless wrestling. He believes Yan is the better fighter and will make Merab pay on his entries, using leg kicks and potentially his own takedowns. He compares Yan's situation to Figueiredo's potential downward spiral but notes that many think Yan beat O'Malley and Sterling. He goes with his brain over his gut.

"I am going to go with the brain here pyoto's gonna be the pick... I think he'll spin off I think he's gonna light up marab's legs he may shoot his own takedowns"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan confidently, calling it a good matchup for him. He highlights Yan's incredible takedown defense and get-up game, and notes Dvalishvili has no control grappling—he can take down but not control. Brady expects Yan to stuff takedowns easier as the fight goes on and finish Dvalishvili with a fourth-round TKO, doing all the damage while Dvalishvili struggles to hold him down.

win by TKO in round 4

"I like yawn a lot I like yawn to finish this fight I'm gonna say fourth round TKO for Pierre on"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Cody picks Petr Yan but with hesitation due to the -250 price and Yan's recent performances, especially the close fight with Sean O'Malley. He notes Yan's slow starts and Dvalishvili's fast start, but believes Yan's volume, body attack, and ability to get back up will break Dvalishvili. He recommends live betting after the first round.

suggests live betting after first round

"I really don't like the money line on this to be honest but I do have Peter yawn winning fight and I think you're going to be able to probably live at this after the first and feel a lot …"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Connor picks Petr Yan, emphasizing Yan's superior striking technique, timing, and power. He notes that Yan's left hook is a key weapon against Dvalishvili, who is vulnerable to that punch due to overcommitting. Connor acknowledges Dvalishvili's relentless pressure and cardio but believes Yan's counterpunching and ability to pick his shots will prevail. He also points out that Yan's takedown defense and scrambling are solid enough to avoid being controlled.

Odds mentioned: Yan opened -175, now -265; Dvalishvili opened +150, now +210.

"I think he's going to win. Yeah, he's going to, I have to expect that he's just going to be able to see the moments when Dvalishvili really actually sits down and plants his feet. And when he does see …"

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Petr Yan

I believe Petr Yan's superior technical striking and defensive wrestling will be the difference. Merab's takedown-heavy style relies on volume, but Yan's takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet should neutralize that. Yan's power and leg kicks will slow Merab's explosiveness, leading to a knockout within three rounds. Merab may have moments, but Yan's damage output will outweigh the control time.

Yan by KO round 3

"I think he knocks out murab de valasfili within three rounds maybe even the fourth but I think he knocks him out"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Paul picks Petr Yan to win, noting Yan's slow starts but superior skill set and ability to calculate and adjust. He mentions Yan's takedown defense and cardio as key factors, and suggests live betting after the first round when Yan's price may improve. He is hesitant about the -250 line but confident Yan wins.

sprinkled Yan round 4 at +2200 and Yan round 5 at +3300; suggests live betting after first round

"I am going to side with Peter yawn to get back on track minus 250 isn't doing it for me I did sprinkle yawn round four at 20 plus 2200 and yawn round five at plus 3 300."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan, believing he is unfinishable and has improved his grappling. He notes that Merab is open on the feet and Yan will capitalize with elbows and shots off the break. He predicts Yan will win by decision or late-round TKO, as Merab's pace may slow and Yan's power will take over. He also mentions referees being anti-clinch, which may hinder Merab's game.

by decision or late rounds TKO

"I think Jan's got this one in the bag I do I was watching marab's fight with Marla Mirage I know it's Marla Mirage and he's dangerous and he is going to drop people early and that's just how it …"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Zane picks Petr Yan, citing Yan's excellent counterpunching and left hook as key advantages. He notes that Dvalishvili is vulnerable to left hooks, as seen in fights against Marlon Moraes and Cody Stamann. Zane also highlights Yan's solid takedown defense and scrambling, which should prevent Dvalishvili from replicating Aljamain Sterling's back-taking game. He expects Yan to time Dvalishvili's entries and land cleaner shots.

Odds mentioned: Yan opened -175, now -265; Dvalishvili opened +150, now +210.

"I think this is a pretty good matchup for him because Marab can do a lot of Aljo type things. ... The difference is, is that Aljamaine Sterling is possibly the best back taker in the sport. ... Marab is …"

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Sean O'Malley

Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Sean O'Malley	0	58 of 96	60%	97 of 139	6 of 13	46%	0	0	5:44
Petr Yan	0	84 of 163	51%	91 of 171	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:02

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Sean O'Malley	19 of 31	61%	28 of 41	1 of 3	33%	1:10
1	Petr Yan	23 of 55	41%	23 of 55	0 of 1	0%	0:02
2	Sean O'Malley	24 of 39	61%	45 of 62	3 of 3	100%	2:42
2	Petr Yan	21 of 37	56%	22 of 39	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Sean O'Malley	15 of 26	57%	24 of 36	2 of 7	28%	1:52
3	Petr Yan	40 of 71	56%	46 of 77	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Sean O'Malley	58 of 96	60%	24 of 57	13 of 18	21 of 21	47 of 81	5 of 6	6 of 9
Petr Yan	84 of 163	51%	63 of 132	6 of 14	15 of 17	80 of 158	4 of 4	0 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Sean O'Malley	19 of 31	61%	5 of 15	3 of 5	11 of 11	17 of 29	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Petr Yan	23 of 55	41%	13 of 37	3 of 9	7 of 9	23 of 55	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Sean O'Malley	24 of 39	61%	12 of 25	7 of 9	5 of 5	17 of 29	2 of 3	5 of 7
2	Petr Yan	21 of 37	56%	17 of 32	1 of 2	3 of 3	21 of 36	0 of 0	0 of 1
3	Sean O'Malley	15 of 26	57%	7 of 17	3 of 4	5 of 5	13 of 23	1 of 1	1 of 2
3	Petr Yan	40 of 71	56%	33 of 63	2 of 3	5 of 5	36 of 67	4 of 4	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Sean O'Malley vs. Petr Yan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Yan (-265), O’Malley (+225)

Round 1
Yan and O’Malley launch into action at the prompting of referee Jason Herzog. Yan is in orthodox stance; O’Mally southpaw. Yan stalks forward as O’Malley slides around the outside of the cage. Yan switches stances and flicks out his right jab, then switches back. Herzog shouts a warning to O’Malley to watch his extended fingers. Yan lands a right low kick and eats a hard right hand counter. O’Malley connects with a right low kick. Halfway through the round, Yan changes levels for a double-leg near the fence. O’Malley backs into the cage, trying to keep the Russian from taking his back. Yan gives up on the takedown and they return to the center. Yan lands a series of three left hands upstairs, then drops for another takedown. This time, he hoists the taller man and dumps him to the canvas. With a minute left, Yan is in O’Malley’s guard. O’Malley goes to stand and eats some punches on the way up, but they return to their feet. O’Malley shoots a takedown at the 10-second clapper, briefly takes Yan’s back in the ensuing scramble, but they separate before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Yan

Round 2
Yan lands an outside low kick, then one to the inside of O’Malley’s lead leg. O’Malley comes back with a huge uppercut that has Yan hurt badly. Yan staggers away as O’Malley gives chase, landing more punches. Yan turns the tables with a massive punch of his own and now O’Malley is rocked. Yan ducks under and drags O’Malley to the mat. Yan is in O’Malley’s guard as O’Malley squirms and looks to escape. O’Malley pops up and Yan drives him to the fence. O’Malley grounds himself with a hand on the canvas to forestall knees to the head. They separate and a moment later, Yan pushes O’Malley back to the floor with a nice inside trip. O’Malley pops right back up. Under two minutes to go and Yan is matching O’Malley down. O’Malley pushes him back with a kick up the middle, and slips the counter punch. Yan flicks a high kick upstairs, then comes in behind it for a takedown. Yan is in O’Malley’s guard at the base of the fence with 45 seconds left in the round. Yan postures up and lands a couple of punches. The round expires.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Yan

Round 3
Yan shoots for a takedown right away, but O’Malley defends well and stands him back up. O’Malley flicks out a couple of jabs. Yan lands a low kick. Yan swarms forward with hooks, then shoves O’Malley to the cage. O’Malley pushes him back off, and lands an intercepting knee that cuts Yan badly. Yan is bleeding right away. Yan comes up short with a pair of punches, then lands a one-two. O’Malley throws a high kick that glances. Yan shoots a fast takedown from way outside, but drives O’Malley to the fence, and gets him to the ground. Yan takes O’Malley’s back as they stand. O’Malley escapes and they separate. There’s 90 seconds left as they reset in the middle. O’Malley lands a pair of jabs to Yan’s bloodied right eye. Yan drags O’Malley to the ground late in the round, and is landing punches from guard at the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Yan)

The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Petr Yan via Split Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Angelo picks Petr Yan confidently, calling him a phenomenal striker with fantastic takedown defense and surprising takedown offense. He notes Yan's power, accuracy, and grappling, and believes O'Malley will have trouble finding a rhythm. He acknowledges Yan's tendency to take the first round off but still expects a one-sided fight.

"pyoto's the pick I am very very confident that this is going to be a one-sided fight there are levels to this"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Yan to win by TKO in the second round. He notes Yan's power (nearly 10 knockdowns in the UFC) and ability to mix in takedowns. O'Malley has faced mostly strikers and hasn't been tested on the ground; Yan can pressure him and potentially finish on top. He believes Yan's experience against elite strikers like Aldo and Sandhagen gives him a clear edge.

second round TKO

"I actually think Peter yon finishes O'Malley I think he finished his second round at TKO gets on top and eventually finishes O'Malley in that second or third round"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Cody is confident in Yan, noting that Yan is an underrated wrestler who can take O'Malley down and control him. He points out O'Malley's weaknesses against pressure and wrestlers, referencing the Marlon Vera fight. Cody believes Yan's experience and ability to figure out opponents as the fight goes on will be key. He thinks Yan can win by decision or inside the distance, and that O'Malley's popularity is inflating his odds.

Yan by submission round 1-2-3 (small bet at 100-1 each)

"I gotta go with Peter Young to get the job done does he win by decision or does he win inside the distance I'm leaning towards inside the distance"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Connor is confident Yan will win, arguing that Yan's layered striking and ability to adapt will overwhelm O'Malley. He notes that O'Malley's offense is based on feints and theoretical threats, while Yan has multiple modes of attack and will take easy targets like leg kicks. He also points out that Yan can pressure O'Malley to the fence and take him down, as he did against Sandhagen.

"Logically, I have to pick Petr Yan. You would be insane to pick Sean O'Malley, honestly."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Daniel Levi picks Petr Yan to win, citing Yan's proven chin and ability to both give and take damage. He questions O'Malley's durability, noting that while O'Malley can strike well, it's unknown how he handles getting hit by a powerful puncher like Yan. Levi thinks Yan will pressure O'Malley and make him fight, and that Yan's experience against tough opponents gives him the edge. He also mentions that Yan may start slow but will win rounds as the fight progresses. Levi does not bet this fight but is confident in Yan.

"I think peota yen is going to get right in the face of Sean O'Malley he's going to make Sean O'Malley fight."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Yan has a slow-starting style but excels in championship rounds. He has wrestling upside that could exploit O'Malley's weakness on the ground. O'Malley may be competitive early with kicks, but Yan's takedowns and top control should secure rounds. Yan by decision at -110 is the pick, and if the line drops to -250, the moneyline becomes attractive.

Yan by decision at -110

"I'm going to go parody on by decision on minus 110"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Paul is confident in Yan, citing that Yan is the better fighter and that O'Malley's action is due to his brand. He worries about Yan giving up round one but thinks Yan will figure out O'Malley and win. Paul notes Yan's wrestling and takedowns as a path to victory, and mentions he took a small bet on Yan by submission at long odds. He believes Yan's experience and skill gap will show.

Yan by submission (small bet at 100-1 each round)

"Peter Yawn is the pick minus 265 I don't even think it's that bad I just worry that he gives up round one"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan over Sean O'Malley by third-round TKO. He believes Yan's pressure, combinations, and ability to crowd O'Malley will be too much. He notes O'Malley's struggles against volume strikers and his tendency to spin, which Yan can exploit. He predicts O'Malley wins the first round but gets hurt in the second and finished in the third.

third round TKO

"I'm going to be going with pyotian over Sean O'Malley"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Zane picks Yan, emphasizing that Yan's pressure and ability to take easy targets will expose O'Malley's defensive flaws. He compares O'Malley to Darren Till, noting that both rely on a coiled-spring style that elite fighters eventually figure out. He believes Yan will force O'Malley into uncomfortable positions and break him down over time.

"I think Yan can just kind of run at Sean O'Malley and... he can essentially do exactly what he did to Cory Sandhagen and start even faster."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Aljamain Sterling

Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling	0	62 of 110	56%	91 of 143	2 of 22	9%	0	0	8:31
Petr Yan	0	63 of 103	61%	139 of 186	0 of 0	---	0	0	5:52

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Aljamain Sterling	19 of 40	47%	20 of 41	0 of 2	0%	0:00
1	Petr Yan	13 of 26	50%	13 of 26	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Aljamain Sterling	17 of 29	58%	42 of 55	1 of 2	50%	3:50
2	Petr Yan	4 of 5	80%	21 of 24	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Aljamain Sterling	6 of 13	46%	8 of 18	1 of 4	25%	3:43
3	Petr Yan	8 of 15	53%	20 of 27	0 of 0	---	0:07
4	Aljamain Sterling	8 of 10	80%	8 of 10	0 of 4	0%	0:00
4	Petr Yan	18 of 25	72%	48 of 57	0 of 0	---	3:51
5	Aljamain Sterling	12 of 18	66%	13 of 19	0 of 10	0%	0:58
5	Petr Yan	20 of 32	62%	37 of 52	0 of 0	---	1:54

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aljamain Sterling	62 of 110	56%	29 of 66	26 of 35	7 of 9	42 of 84	5 of 7	15 of 19
Petr Yan	63 of 103	61%	32 of 71	17 of 18	14 of 14	46 of 80	8 of 11	9 of 12

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aljamain Sterling	19 of 40	47%	5 of 22	11 of 14	3 of 4	19 of 40	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Petr Yan	13 of 26	50%	7 of 20	4 of 4	2 of 2	12 of 25	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	17 of 29	58%	14 of 20	1 of 6	2 of 3	3 of 11	0 of 0	14 of 18
2	Petr Yan	4 of 5	80%	1 of 2	1 of 1	2 of 2	3 of 4	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Aljamain Sterling	6 of 13	46%	2 of 8	4 of 5	0 of 0	4 of 11	1 of 1	1 of 1
3	Petr Yan	8 of 15	53%	2 of 9	2 of 2	4 of 4	7 of 13	1 of 2	0 of 0
4	Aljamain Sterling	8 of 10	80%	2 of 4	6 of 6	0 of 0	6 of 8	2 of 2	0 of 0
4	Petr Yan	18 of 25	72%	10 of 17	4 of 4	4 of 4	9 of 13	4 of 5	5 of 7
5	Aljamain Sterling	12 of 18	66%	6 of 12	4 of 4	2 of 2	10 of 14	2 of 4	0 of 0
5	Petr Yan	20 of 32	62%	12 of 23	6 of 7	2 of 2	15 of 25	1 of 2	4 of 5

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Safe for parlay piece; suggests parlay with Volkanovski, Yan, and Chimaev.

"i gotta go with pyotr here he was landing the more powerful strikes in their first fight he was controlling the grappling ... i like pyotr to win but i do think it's by decision"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Petr Yan

fourth round knockout

"i like yon to finish sterling i'm gonna say fourth round knockout"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

draw +2800 (mentioned as possibility)

"yeah yawn for me as well but man i'm worried about it and i got like a snagging suspicion that there could be a potential apple pie [ __ ] in play"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)

Petr Yan

Parlay: Petr Yan + Ian Garry

"i think yan is the actual master of making these adjustments and i think that he's going to come out here i think he's got something for algo this time"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Yan round 4/5/decision -180 (FanDuel)

"I like the Pyotr Yan side here... I think he finishes Aljamain Sterling at a certain point... Yan round four round five decision sitting at minus 180 I think that's a damn good line."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

"i think yawn wins again i i'm not too scared i don't love the minus minus nearly minus 500 but uh yawn for me"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Petr Yan

decision prediction, 48-47

"i'm going to go with pyotean by decision razor close 4847"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Cory Sandhagen

Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Petr Yan	1	149 of 270	55%	158 of 280	0 of 2	0%	1	1	1:09
Cory Sandhagen	0	169 of 445	37%	172 of 449	1 of 6	16%	0	1	0:20

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Petr Yan	0	19 of 37	51%	19 of 37	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
1	Cory Sandhagen	0	37 of 85	43%	39 of 87	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:10
2	Petr Yan	0	38 of 65	58%	40 of 67	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:05
2	Cory Sandhagen	0	45 of 113	39%	45 of 113	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
3	Petr Yan	1	36 of 57	63%	41 of 63	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:40
3	Cory Sandhagen	0	37 of 86	43%	37 of 87	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:07
4	Petr Yan	0	36 of 67	53%	38 of 69	0 of 1	0%	1	0	0:24
4	Cory Sandhagen	0	25 of 83	30%	26 of 84	1 of 3	33%	0	0	0:03
5	Petr Yan	0	20 of 44	45%	20 of 44	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
5	Cory Sandhagen	0	25 of 78	32%	25 of 78	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Petr Yan	149 of 270	55%	100 of 217	27 of 29	22 of 24	135 of 252	7 of 9	7 of 9
Cory Sandhagen	169 of 445	37%	118 of 389	28 of 32	23 of 24	168 of 443	1 of 2	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Petr Yan	19 of 37	51%	4 of 21	4 of 4	11 of 12	17 of 35	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Cory Sandhagen	37 of 85	43%	21 of 68	6 of 6	10 of 11	36 of 83	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Petr Yan	38 of 65	58%	23 of 50	8 of 8	7 of 7	36 of 63	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Cory Sandhagen	45 of 113	39%	30 of 95	9 of 12	6 of 6	45 of 113	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Petr Yan	36 of 57	63%	29 of 49	5 of 6	2 of 2	28 of 46	1 of 2	7 of 9
3	Cory Sandhagen	37 of 86	43%	29 of 78	4 of 4	4 of 4	37 of 86	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Petr Yan	36 of 67	53%	28 of 59	8 of 8	0 of 0	34 of 64	2 of 3	0 of 0
4	Cory Sandhagen	25 of 83	30%	20 of 77	4 of 5	1 of 1	25 of 83	0 of 0	0 of 0
5	Petr Yan	20 of 44	45%	16 of 38	2 of 3	2 of 3	20 of 44	0 of 0	0 of 0
5	Cory Sandhagen	25 of 78	32%	18 of 71	5 of 5	2 of 2	25 of 78	0 of 0	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win a competitive decision. He notes both are great strikers, but Yan has the edge in boxing and can mix in takedowns. Sandhagen's takedown defense is a weakness (65% on paper, but was lower before the Dillashaw fight). Yan's wrestling and control time should be the difference. He expects a close fight but Yan edges it out.

"I'm going to say yan slightly edges it out uh it's close fight another close fight but a really good one."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Cody is high on Petr Yan, calling him a 'terminator' with cardio, striking, and underrated wrestling. He notes Yan has scored takedowns in his last six fights, including against Aljamain Sterling and Jose Aldo. He thinks Yan's wrestling will be the difference against Sandhagen, who can be taken down. He suggests betting Yan live for a better price but is confident Yan wins.

"peter young's one of those trustworthy guys that if he loses okay it would take a herculean effort"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Daniel picks Petr Yan to defend his title, calling him a top-five pound-for-pound fighter. He highlights Yan's well-roundedness, cardio, and ability to lull opponents into a false sense of security before dropping them. Daniel notes Yan's takedown success against Jose Aldo and Aljamain Sterling, and believes Sandhagen's clinch issues and tendency to give up his back will be exploited. He predicts a fourth-round TKO.

predicts fourth round TKO

"i'm going petery in by fourth round tko"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Cory Sandhagen

Sandhagen's volume and output from distance will be Yan's kryptonite. Yan prefers to strike but Sandhagen throws 16.5 strikes per minute from outside and has the cardio to maintain it. Yan's takedowns are a threat, but he doesn't usually grapple heavily. Sandhagen wins a volume-based decision.

Sandhagen by decision.

"My pick is corey sandhagen i am picking against peyon once again and i did pick algo last time as well."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that playing Yan live is risky because Yan might get an early takedown and the line will move to -400. He thinks Sandhagen's only chance is if it's a pure striking match, but Yan's wrestling will be the difference. He sees Yan as the clear side.

"i think peter young is the side here"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)

Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan to win by TKO in the later rounds. He highlights Yan's grappling, especially when taking the back, and notes that Sandhagen gives up his back frequently. He thinks Yan will catch kicks, sweep, and take Sandhagen down. He questions Sandhagen's KO power, noting his recent finishes were against chinny opponents. He predicts Yan will be patient, chop at the legs, and eventually finish Sandhagen in the fourth or fifth round.

fourth or fifth round tko

"i'm gonna go over pyota yan here and i think i'll go with pyote yam by fourth round fifth round tko"

THE MMA GURU

View all 16 fights

Expert Picks (4)

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan in a 50/50 fight, citing Yan's superior boxing, power, and takedown defense (88%). He doubts Sterling can take Yan down or hold him down, and notes Sterling lacks power. He predicts a decision win for Yan but is not confident enough to bet.

"i'm going to take you on here yawn does have a 54 finish rate"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Petr Yan

Daniel picks Petr Yan to defend his title, but is not fully confident. He believes Yan will outlast Sterling, winning the later rounds, but acknowledges Sterling's improvement and the possibility of a close decision. He notes Yan's discipline and power as key factors.

"i'm gonna go with pyotoriana to keep his title saturday night but it's not the most confident pick"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Sterling's volume and kicking game could outwork Yan, who sometimes gives away rounds. The host notes Yan's power and durability but thinks Sterling's cardio and grappling could be key. He predicts Sterling by decision.

"i'm leaning with sterling here i'll go with him to win by decision"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling as an underdog to win by submission. He believes Sterling's grappling and size will be the difference, as Yan has not faced a grappler of Sterling's level. He notes Sterling's unpredictable striking and ability to make fights messy. He predicts Sterling will wear on Yan and get a rear-naked choke in the third or fourth round.

"i am going with our germain sterling this is another underdog on the card i like the underdog here"

THE MMA GURU