Career Averages - Islam Makhachev
Career Averages - Drew Dober
Islam Makhachev
Drew Dober
Islam Makhachev - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 18 of 61 | 29% | 30 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 30 of 57 | 52% | 140 of 188 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 19:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 20 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:52 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:05 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 32 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 4 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 30 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:24 | |
| 5 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 22 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 18 of 61 | 29% | 10 of 45 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 56 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 30 of 57 | 52% | 14 of 40 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 10 | 20 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 4 of 18 | 22% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 9 of 17 | 52% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 9 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 12 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 11 of 18 | 61% | 5 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 4 | Jack Della Maddalena | 1 of 11 | 9% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 7 of 12 | 58% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jack Della Maddalena | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Makhachev (-270), Della Maddalena (+220)
Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Makhachev opens with a low keg kcik. Maddalena immediately pressures behind a combination. Makhachev with a front kick down the middle but Maddalena has his guard up. Maddalena moves in with a combination. It’s a about a minute in when Makhachev shoots for his first takedown, and he gets it by tripping the Aussie to the mat. Makhachev in half guard, applying heavy top pressure. Makhachev looks for openings to land offense, and he lands short elbows and punches. Maddalena creates a scramble and gets to his feet, but Makhachev jumps on his back. The champ goes to his back, so Makhachev is in top position again, working from half guard. It’s all defense for Maddalena, who’s trying to limit his opponent’s offense from above. Makhachev looks to advance to lock up a choke. Maddalena seems to be wise to it, and he recovers full guard. The round ends with Maddalena landing an illegal upkick on Makhachev, who had a knee down.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 2
Maddalena misses a front kick and Makhachev answers with a hard calf kick. Makhachev leaps in with a two-punch combo then moves away. Makhachev lands a leg kick and then slides away with his jab. Maddalena partially blocks a high kick. Maddalena lands a solid shot as Makhachev closes the range. The Dagestani shoves his foe into the fence. Maddalena tries to defend by stepping over the top, but he ends up on his back near the fence. Makhachev works from half guard with 3:00 to go in the frame. Makhachev drops an elbow as he methodically controls the action. Maddalena isn’t doing much in the way of initiating a scramble. Short elbows land for Makhachev. The combatants move further away from the fence, and it’s still Makhachev in control. Maddalena considers moving to a hip but thinks better of it, maybe due to the threat of the submission. Makhachev creates some room to drop a series of elbows. Maddalena gets to his feet with about 10 seconds to go. Makhachev ends the frame with a knee to the body. One-way traffic so far.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 3
Maddalena throws a jab and then an inside leg kick. A much harder low kick lands for Makhachev. A calf kick from Makhachev makes Maddalena stumble. Makhachev picks up the pace and lands a combination. They clinch, and Maddalena finds a home for some body work. Makhachev attacks with a leg kick before executing a quick level change — and Maddalena is back on the floor. Maddalena does a good job defending his opponent’s desired choke, but Makhachev is otherwise in a dominant position again. Makhachev works diligently to pass guard as he peppers his foe with short punches. Makhachev switches from punches to elbows while continuing to apply top pressure. Maddalena gets to his knees, but he’s unable to create anything during a late scramble before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 4
Maddalena tries a high kick but Makhachev is ready for it. Makhachev lands a body kick as his opponent moves forward. Makhachev lands an inside leg kick. Another body kick connects for the Dagestani. Maddalena isn’t offering much in the way of offense at this point in the fight. Another low kick makes Maddalena hop briefly. Suddenly, Makhachev explodes for a takedown and he gets it with about 3:30 left in the period. Maddalena tries to create space with his guard, but Makhachev floats on top and deftly transitions to the back. The former lightweight king locks in a body triangle, and then he briefly collects one of Maddalena’s arms. The Aussie frees his limb, but he’s flat on his back again. It’s rinse and repeat for Makhachev, who continues to maintain significant pressure from half guard. Makhachev is thinking about a kimura, and Maddalena scoots to a seated position. Maddalena stands with 10 seconds left, but he can’t break his foe’s grip before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 5
Like Weili Zhang before him, Maddalena needs a miracle to come out with a victory. Maddalena tries to pressure early, but Makhachev takes him down with ease less than 30 seconds into the period. Makhachev is looking to frame a kimura once again, but Maddalena escapes the submission. It’s essentially turned into a repeat of the earlier rounds. Maddalena doesn’t have any answers for Makhachev, and the only suspense at this point is whether the Dagestani will be able to secure a submission before the final horn. For now, Makhachev is just staying busy with pressure and occasional offense from top position. Maddalena briefly recovers full guard, but he’s grimacing as Makhachev continues to impose his will. Makhachev briefly has a choke locked in, but Maddalena again avoids the finish. As time ticks away, an “Islam” chant rains down, led by Khabib Nurmagomedov from the corner. Maddalena scrambles up right before the horn once again, but it’s of little importance. Makhachev has his 16th consecutive victory in hand, and he’s about to be a two-division champion.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
The Official Result
Islam Makhachev def. Jack Della Maddalena via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) R5 5:00
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, emphasizing his relentless wrestling and ability to chain takedowns. He acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's size and scrambling but believes Islam's wrestling pressure will be too much. He notes this is a tough fight due to JDM's size but still picks Islam.
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev, citing Jack Della Maddalena's history of making mistakes on the ground, such as surviving deep submissions against Anshul Jubli and Ramazan Emeev. He believes Makhachev will capitalize on those mistakes, get takedowns, and secure a submission, likely a D'Arce choke. Brady notes Della Maddalena has been taken down frequently and thinks Makhachev's grappling is on another level. He predicts a second-round submission.
Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing that Islam's wrestling and game plan are perfectly suited to beat Jack. He notes that Jack's takedown defense was exposed by Belal and Gilbert Burns, who are not on Islam's level. Cody highlights that Islam has Khabib in his corner and will stick to the game plan of taking Jack down and controlling him. He predicts a decision or late finish for Islam.
Connor picks Makhachev based on his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Makhachev has diverse takedown entries and rarely loses positions, while Della Maddalena has shown takedown defense issues and made bad grappling decisions against Belal. He acknowledges Della Maddalena's punching power but believes Makhachev's wrestling will be the deciding factor.
Daniel acknowledges Jack's toughness and underrated grappling, but believes Islam's grappling is on another level. He notes that Jack has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Islam's darce choke and grip strength are exceptional. He expects Islam to capitalize on the ground where others couldn't, but warns that if the fight stays on the feet, Jack could hurt Islam with body shots.
Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win by decision. He believes Islam's grappling is a massive advantage, as he will take JDM down and control him, similar to his fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. He notes JDM's improved grappling defense but thinks Islam's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are too much. He predicts the fight goes the distance, with Islam winning via control and possibly threatening submissions but not finishing.
Makhachev's move to welterweight is calculated. He wears Della Maddalena down with wrestling. Della Maddalena's BJJ improvements keep him from being finished, but Makhachev wins on the scorecards to become champion.
Paul believes Islam's wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Jack's takedown defense has improved but that Belal Muhammad had success wrestling late in their fight, and Islam is a much better wrestler. He also points out that Jack's win over Belal was a split decision and that he was controlled on the ground. Paul thinks Islam's size is not a concern and that he will bring the title back to Dagestan.
The Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by TKO in round three or four. He believes JDM's grappling defense and scrambling ability will neutralize Makhachev's takedowns, and his striking volume and body work will take over in later rounds. He compares JDM to a better version of Dustin Poirier, who had success against Makhachev. The Guru sees Makhachev's path to victory only via early submission, which he doubts.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev due to his wrestling advantage. He highlights that Della Maddalena struggled with Belal's wrestling and that Makhachev is a much better wrestler. He also notes the weight class change and Makhachev's potential decline but still favors him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Renato Moicano | 9 of 27 | 33% | 2 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Renato Moicano | 9 of 27 | 33% | 2 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, noting his improvements in striking and his wrestling dominance. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's takedown of Makhachev in their first fight but believes Makhachev's size, cardio, and overall game will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's chin being questionable after being dropped by a 40-year-old Silva.
Cody picks Islam Makhachev to retain, citing Islam's championship experience, improved wrestling, and ability to handle five rounds. He notes that Arman Tsarukyan has improved but still relies heavily on wrestling and tends to tire in later rounds. Cody also mentions that Islam has already beaten Tsarukyan once and has only gotten better since. He suggests a live bet strategy or a small hedge on Tsarukyan if the parlay is still alive.
Connor picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior poise, technical striking, and defensive wrestling. He notes that Makhachev has become one of the best strikers in the division with a calm, principled approach, while Arman still fights with tension and wastes energy. Connor emphasizes that Makhachev's ability to stay relaxed and make good decisions under pressure gives him a clear edge, especially given their first fight where Makhachev outlasted Arman. He acknowledges Arman's improvements in finishing ability but believes Makhachev's overall game has grown more.
Daniel picks Moicano as a significant underdog, citing that Makhachev's days at 155 are numbered and he is looking to move up to 170. He notes that Makhachev has shown vulnerability in recent fights, with Dustin Poirier stuffing 11 takedowns and Volkanovski stuffing 5. Daniel believes Moicano can match Makhachev's wrestling and has dangerous kicks and knockout power, as seen against Benoit Saint-Denis. He also mentions the location in Los Angeles with a large Armenian population as a motivating factor for Moicano.
Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior striking improvements against top competition like Dustin Poirier, Alexander Volkanovski, and Charles Oliveira. He expects the fight to feature more striking than their first bout, where Arman Tsarukyan was hesitant. James notes Islam's experience in five-round fights and counter-wrestling as key advantages, but acknowledges Arman's improved striking and power as potential threats. He mentions Islam's chin as a vulnerability, having been wobbled before, but ultimately believes Islam's overall skill set and prime condition will prevail.
The host acknowledges Tsarukyan has improved since their first fight and his power striking could cause issues. However, he believes Makhachev will create grappling opportunities and squeeze out a decision victory. He likes the fight to go to decision and does not like the heavy chalk on Makhachev but still expects him to win.
Paul agrees with Cody that Islam Makhachev will retain, noting that Islam has learned from the first fight and has a better understanding of Tsarukyan's style. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's knockout potential but believes Islam's experience and preparation will prevail. Paul also points out that Islam is a rightful favorite and a parlay piece for him this week.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win a close decision. He argues that Arman Tsarukyan cannot finish Makhachev and is unlikely to win a decision due to Makhachev's status. He notes Makhachev's clinch work and body knees are key weapons, and he expects Makhachev to win 3-2 or 4-1 on the scorecards. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's low kicks are not as effective as he remembered.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev. He highlights Makhachev's unflappable poise and technical striking, contrasting it with Arman's all-or-nothing style that led to his loss in the first fight. Zane notes that Makhachev has improved significantly since then, becoming a more complete fighter, while Arman still tends to expend energy recklessly. He also points out that Makhachev's southpaw stance could trouble Arman, who hasn't looked great against southpaws. Zane acknowledges Arman's increased violence and finishing ability but believes Makhachev's calmness and defensive skills will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 88 of 156 | 56% | 147 of 222 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 2 | 0 | 10:23 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 74 of 183 | 40% | 104 of 218 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 46 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 30 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 32 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 18 of 24 | 75% | 24 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:10 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 29 of 53 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 23 of 61 | 37% | 34 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 18 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 88 of 156 | 56% | 81 of 148 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 71 of 136 | 11 of 14 | 6 of 6 |
| Dustin Poirier | 74 of 183 | 40% | 53 of 159 | 18 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 51 of 157 | 23 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 26 of 46 | 56% | 23 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Dustin Poirier | 24 of 58 | 41% | 18 of 51 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 47 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 18 of 24 | 75% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Dustin Poirier | 15 of 36 | 41% | 13 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 20 of 44 | 45% | 17 of 41 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 23 of 61 | 37% | 12 of 49 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 50 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 18 of 33 | 54% | 17 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 11 of 23 | 47% | 9 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing his superior wrestling and pressure. He believes Islam will get takedowns at will and potentially finish Dustin Poirier. He acknowledges Poirier's toughness and one-punch power but thinks the grappling gap is too wide. He mentions a fantasy scenario where Poirier wins by submission but calls it highly unlikely.
Big Brady is heavily on Islam Makhachev, calling him his favorite play on the board and planning 100% exposure. He expects Islam to get takedowns and finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Dustin Poirier's power and cheap price but sees a very limited path for Poirier. He will sprinkle a little on Poirier but is confident Islam gets the job done inside the distance.
Cody agrees Makhachev is the favorite but notes Poirier's puncher's chance and the appealing +500 underdog price. He discusses Poirier's win over Benoît Saint Denis, which he considers tainted due to Saint Denis having a staph infection. Cody believes Makhachev will take Poirier down and grind him out, likely submitting him late or winning by TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds at +145.
Daniel Vreeland picks Makhachev but disagrees that he's a better striker than Poirier. He notes Makhachev's striking is overrated based on the Volkanovski fight. However, he believes Poirier will give up too many positions and won't be on his feet long enough to win a decision. Vreeland thinks Poirier's only path is a finish, but Makhachev is durable and has gone 25 minutes with Volkanovski. He suggests Poirier's props (KO or submission) are better value than his moneyline.
Daniel acknowledges Islam's dominant grappling and improved striking, noting his win over Volkanovski. He points out that Dustin has faced grapplers like Khabib and Oliveira, but the Dagestani style is uniquely relentless. He mentions the possibility of Poirier landing a check hook like Martins did, but ultimately sees Islam's path to victory as more likely. He is rooting for Poirier but picks Islam as a pure pick.
Jeff Fox picks Makhachev, calling him 'Khabib with hands.' He believes Poirier has no advantage anywhere, especially now that Makhachev is knocking people out on the feet. Fox sees no realm where Poirier is better and expects Makhachev to dominate.
The host expects Makhachev to take the fight to the ground and submit Poirier, similar to how Khabib and Oliveira did. Poirier's grappling defense has been exploited by elite wrestlers, and Makhachev's pressure and top control should lead to a rear-naked choke. The host sees this as an easy win for Makhachev and likes the submission prop.
Paul picks Makhachev to win, noting Poirier's age (35) and the historical stat that fighters over 35 under 155 lbs are 0-15 in title fights. He believes Makhachev's takedowns will be there whenever he wants, but warns that Makhachev has had bad performances before (like against Adriano Martins and Volkanovski) and could get into trouble if he stands with Poirier. He suggests betting the over 1.5 or over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline at -700.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev, predicting a first-round submission via arm triangle or Von Flue choke. He explains that Poirier's habit of going for guillotines leaves his arm in a vulnerable position. He also notes that Makhachev's striking has evolved to be more counter-based, reducing the chance of getting caught. He mentions Poirier's hip issues limiting his kicks and takedown defense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 1 | 24 of 29 | 82% | 39 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 1 | 24 of 29 | 82% | 39 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 24 of 29 | 82% | 13 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 24 of 29 | 82% | 13 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, calling him a discount at -170. He thinks Islam will be all-in on wrestling this time, unlike the first fight where he took Volkanovski lightly. He notes Volkanovski is coming off the couch with no camp, while Islam had a full camp. He expects Islam to tire Volkanovski and win more decisively. He considers Islam safe to parlay.
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He notes that Volkanovski is coming off elbow surgery on short notice, while Makhachev is improving, especially in striking. In their first fight, Makhachev clearly won and controlled the grappling. Brady expects Makhachev to take Volkanovski's back and ride out rounds, winning a clear decision.
Cody picks Makhachev, emphasizing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and had surgery, so he won't be at his best. He notes that Makhachev took Volkanovski down four times in their first fight and controlled him for eight minutes, and expects a similar or better performance in Abu Dhabi. Cody also mentions that Makhachev is in his prime and getting better, while Volkanovski just turned 35 and may not have celebrated his birthday properly.
Daniel picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing that Islam is more physical, dictates the pace, and has the hometown advantage in Abu Dhabi where a close decision will go to Islam. He notes Volkanovski's elite feinting game and durability but believes Islam's weight cut and fatigue issues from the first fight are mitigated by Volkanovski taking the fight on short notice. He expects a competitive fight but sees Islam winning, possibly by decision, though he doesn't rule out a finish.
James predicted Makhachev would win by KO, citing that Makhachev had hurt Volkanovski multiple times in their first fight and that Volkanovski's conditioning might not be there on short notice. He noted that Makhachev's ground and pound could come into play if Volkanovski faded. James was very confident, placing a 5-unit bet on Makhachev moneyline and a half-unit bet on the TKO prop. He also mentioned that he switched from betting Volkanovski in the first fight to Makhachev in this rematch due to the damage Makhachev inflicted.
Volkanovski is a live underdog despite short notice. He has already fought Makhachev once and knows what to change. He is a freak athlete who can give a solid 25-minute performance. Makhachev is unlikely to finish him, and Volkanovski's cardio and durability should allow him to win a close decision. The line is too wide.
Paul picks Islam Makhachev, citing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and recent surgery, which diminishes his preparation. He notes that Makhachev is in full camp, younger, and fighting in Abu Dhabi where the judges may favor him. Paul expects Makhachev to control the fight with takedowns and ground control, similar to their first fight, and sees value in Makhachev by decision at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev by third-round TKO. He believes Volkanovski will be weaker and smaller than in their first fight because he didn't have a full camp at 155 and is coming off a 145 fight. He thinks Makhachev will be bigger and stronger. He predicts Makhachev will land knees in the clinch, eventually catching Volkanovski with a knee to the face. He also notes that Volkanovski is rushing back from injuries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 57 of 95 | 60% | 95 of 135 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 7:37 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 70 of 143 | 48% | 164 of 255 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 18 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 30 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 30 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 19 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 49 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 52 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 57 of 95 | 60% | 36 of 72 | 18 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 82 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 70 of 143 | 48% | 37 of 96 | 21 of 33 | 12 of 14 | 58 of 125 | 6 of 10 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 10 of 16 | 62% | 5 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 11 of 23 | 47% | 4 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 19 of 32 | 59% | 12 of 24 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 19 of 34 | 55% | 8 of 20 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 16 of 22 | 72% | 10 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 14 of 37 | 37% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 4 of 9 | 44% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 6 of 13 | 46% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 8 of 16 | 50% | 6 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 20 of 36 | 55% | 14 of 27 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 7 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev with high confidence, arguing that Volkanovski's size disadvantage and lack of one-punch power or submission threat make him an easy matchup for Islam. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is suspect (Ortega took him down twice) and that Islam's grappling is suffocating. He has a three-unit bet on Islam at -330 and expects the line to close around -500.
Big Brady is confident in Makhachev, citing his size advantage and elite grappling. He thinks Volkanovski's takedown defense won't hold up against a lightweight wrestler like Makhachev. He predicts a submission win in the third round, noting Volkanovski's toughness but believing Makhachev will eventually catch him.
Cody picks Makhachev but thinks the -400 line is too high and sees value in Volkanovski as a hedge. He notes Volkanovski's path to victory is keeping the fight standing and outworking Makhachev in later rounds, as Makhachev is a low-volume striker. He also mentions Volkanovski's durability and ability to escape submissions from Ortega. He suggests building parlays around Makhachev and throwing a small bet on Volkanovski at +300.
Connor picks Makhachev, emphasizing his superior grappling and ability to chain attacks. He notes that Volkanovski's get-up game, while improved, may not work against Makhachev's patient, trap-setting style. Connor highlights that Makhachev's team prepares specific counters to opponents' tendencies, and that Volkanovski's path to victory requires tiring Makhachev, which has never been done. He also mentions that Volkanovski's striking is better, but the wrestling threat neutralizes it.
Volkanovski is the pound-for-pound best, undefeated in 22 fights over 10 years. His defensive grappling is elite; no one has held him down. Makhachev's competition is overrated—Volkanovski would beat everyone Makhachev faced. Volkanovski's cardio and striking will take over late as Makhachev tires from unsuccessful grappling. The size difference is a concern but Volkanovski's strength and bulking up mitigate it. At +300, the value is tremendous.
Paul believes Makhachev will take Volkanovski down at will and eventually finish him inside the distance. He notes Volkanovski was taken down twice by Brian Ortega and lucky to escape submissions, and that Makhachev's hands have improved. He sees Volkanovski's only path as a big overhand right, but thinks Makhachev wins 80% of the time via submission or TKO. He bet Makhachev inside the distance at -105 to -110.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Alexander Volkanovski, emphasizing Makhachev's size, strength, and grappling. He believes Makhachev will use clinch knees and head kicks to finish Volkanovski in the third round by TKO. He notes Volkanovski leads with his head, which Makhachev can exploit with knees.
Zane also picks Makhachev, agreeing with Connor that the grappling advantage is decisive. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is not elite and that Makhachev's pressure and chain wrestling will likely overwhelm him. Zane points out that Volkanovski's best chance is to make it a striking match, but Makhachev's wrestling threat will stifle that. He also mentions that Makhachev's preparation is meticulous, targeting specific weaknesses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 30 of 41 | 73% | 72 of 86 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 5:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 51 of 60 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 21 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 19 of 39 | 48% | 7 of 23 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 26 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 30 of 41 | 73% | 25 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 6 of 11 | 54% | 1 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 |
| Charles Oliveira | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 13 of 28 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Charles Oliveira | 18 of 23 | 78% | 16 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, arguing that Islam's wrestling and control will be the difference. He notes that Charles Oliveira's submission wins mostly come when he gets the takedown, not when he is taken down. He believes Islam can get takedowns, avoid submissions, and control the fight. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but is confident in Islam.
Big Brady picks Makhachev to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Makhachev will take Oliveira down easily and eventually get to a dominant position. Oliveira is dangerous off his back but has been finished before (seven finish losses). Makhachev's wrestling and top control should wear Oliveira down, leading to a ground-and-pound stoppage.
Cody acknowledges Makhachev's relentless grinding and pressure style, but notes Oliveira's elite jiu-jitsu and striking power. He points out that Oliveira has been a live underdog before, with plus money wins in his last two fights. Cody is concerned about Makhachev's ability to hang in Oliveira's guard without getting submitted. He ultimately leans Oliveira because of the value and Oliveira's diverse finishing ability, though he admits it's a conflicted pick.
Connor argues that Makhachev must grapple with Oliveira and that he is too dominant and technical on the ground to be swept or submitted. He notes that Oliveira has been outgrappled before by fighters like Paul Felder, Anthony Pettis, and Ricardo Lamas, and that Makhachev's patience and cardio will allow him to slow-cook Oliveira over five rounds. He emphasizes that Makhachev's submission defense and ability to avoid trouble in scrambles make him a safe pick.
Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win the lightweight title. He believes Islam's Dagestani wrestling and grappling will allow him to engage with Charles Oliveira on the ground where previous opponents were hesitant. Levi notes that Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights but opponents respected his guard and backed off, whereas Islam will not be intimidated and will follow up. He also mentions that Islam's striking, especially high kicks, is underrated and that he absorbs very few strikes. Levi acknowledges Oliveira's improved confidence and submission threat but thinks Islam's grappling pedigree and ability to neutralize submissions will be the difference. He bet 2 units at -162.
Makhachev's wrestling is the key factor; Oliveira hasn't faced a wrestler of this caliber since Kevin Lee. Makhachev has five-round cardio and can neutralize Oliveira's jiu-jitsu by passing guard and getting to dominant positions. Oliveira's striking advantage won't matter if the fight goes to the ground. Makhachev inside the distance at -105 is the pick, likely finishing in the second or third round.
Paul is confident in Oliveira, citing that he grabbed Oliveira at +285 earlier and added more at +175. He questions Makhachev's striking defense, referencing the Adriano Martins knockout, and believes Oliveira's style is problematic for Makhachev. Paul thinks Oliveira can win on the feet or by submission, and doesn't understand the 66% win probability for Makhachev. He sees Oliveira as a very live dog.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Islam Makhachev, despite being the underdog. He notes that BJJ fighters with hands have given Makhachev problems (e.g., Thiago Moises, Davi Ramos). He believes Oliveira's pressure and striking will rock Makhachev, leading to a guillotine submission in round one. He also cites Makhachev's lack of big-fight experience and the pressure of fighting in Abu Dhabi.
Zane agrees that Makhachev should grapple and believes he will find takedowns against Oliveira, who is willing to engage on the ground. He notes that Makhachev's multi-directional takedown threats and ability to chain attacks will overwhelm Oliveira. He also points out that Oliveira's recent success is partly due to opponents being afraid to follow him to the ground, but Makhachev will not hesitate.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 30 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| King Green | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 30 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| King Green | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 14 of 32 | 43% | 10 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 |
| King Green | 9 of 13 | 69% | 2 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 14 of 32 | 43% | 10 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 |
| King Green | 9 of 13 | 69% | 2 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, believing he will dominate Bobby Green with his wrestling and grappling. He notes that while Green is a better striker, Makhachev has enough striking to avoid getting hurt and will then take the fight to the ground where he can control and finish. Angelo acknowledges that Makhachev hasn't faced top-ranked opponents yet, but he expects him to blow through Green as a heavy favorite. He also mentions a two-unit parlay with Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan at around -180.
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by submission. He notes that Makhachev absorbs only 0.79 significant strikes per minute and no opponent has landed more than 13 strikes on him in the UFC. He highlights that Bobby Green has never faced a wrestler or grappler of Makhachev's caliber and has been taken down by lesser fighters. Brady believes Green's path to victory is a knockout, but Green hasn't knocked anyone out since 2013. He respects Green for stepping in on short notice but sees this as a terrible matchup for him.
Cody is confident in Makhachev's grappling dominance, citing his wins over Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Thiago Moises. He notes that Makhachev's style mirrors Khabib's and that Bobby Green's path to victory is a knockout, which is unlikely given Green's lack of one-punch power. Cody acknowledges the wide odds but still picks Makhachev as a top parlay piece, though he mentions hedging with a small bet on Green by KO at +1100.
Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win via submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes that Bobby Green is durable and will stuff early takedowns, but Makhachev's relentless pressure will eventually wear him down. Levi mentions the fight goes the distance is plus 250 but does not think Green can survive five rounds. He emphasizes Makhachev's point to prove and expects a statement finish.
Jacob picks Islam Makhachev but is hesitant, stating that if Bobby Green had a full camp, he would have been his lock of the week. He believes Green's pressure and volume are the best defense against takedowns, and that Green's unorthodox boxing could trouble Makhachev. Jacob thinks Makhachev might try to stand and prove a point, but ultimately expects him to win via wrestling. He also mentions placing a half-unit bet on Green at +550, showing his uncertainty.
Makhachev is a heavy favorite at -800, and the host believes he will dominate with his wrestling. He expects Makhachev to repeatedly take Green down and control him on the ground, though he thinks Green's defensive grappling may prevent a finish. The host notes Green's lack of power and predicts Makhachev wins by decision, also suggesting a bet on over 1.5 rounds.
Paul agrees that Makhachev is the clear winner but is tempted to sprinkle on Bobby Green at +600 due to the wide line. He notes Green's volume and pace could make it competitive if he avoids takedowns, but ultimately sees Makhachev's grappling as too much. Paul mentions the line has moved from -700 to -900, making it less appealing for a straight bet.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win by third-round rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Bobby Green's counter-grappling and durability but believes Makhachev's size, physicality, and superior grappling will be too much. He notes that Green's output drops significantly when facing wrestlers, as seen against Thiago Moises and Francisco Trinaldo. The Guru also highlights that the catchweight of 160 lbs benefits Makhachev by easing his weight cut, potentially improving his chin and conditioning. He expects Makhachev to wear Green down against the cage, take his back in a scramble, and secure the choke in the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 13 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 13 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Hooker | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Hooker | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He believes Makhachev's wrestling will be relentless and he will control Hooker on the ground. Hooker has good takedown defense on paper but hasn't faced a wrestler of Makhachev's caliber. Hooker has never been submitted, so a decision is likely. He respects Hooker for stepping in but thinks it's a tough matchup.
Cody agrees with Islam by decision, citing Hooker's durability and chin. He notes Hooker has only been knocked out twice (by Barboza body kick and Chandler) and has good submission defense. He thinks Islam's grappling will control the fight but Hooker will survive to a decision.
Daniel picks Islam Makhachev, citing his dominant wrestling and submission skills, including making Tiago Moises tap. He notes Hooker's durability and striking but believes Islam's grappling will be the difference. Daniel is curious to see if Islam tests his striking but expects a dominant performance. He mentions the line is too high to bet.
Makhachev's wrestling and pressure will be overwhelming for Hooker, who took the fight on short notice. Hooker's only chance is a KO, but Makhachev's striking has improved and he will likely take Hooker down repeatedly. Makhachev wins a decision or possibly a late finish.
Paul picks Islam Makhachev by decision, noting Hooker's durability and that Hooker has never been submitted. He thinks Islam's suffocating top control and methodical approach will lead to a decision win. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds is -160 and he likes that as well.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Dan Hooker. He thinks Makhachev's grappling is superior and that Hooker's camp is not ideal. He predicts Hooker may win the first round with his length and clinch work, but Makhachev will take over in rounds two and three with takedowns and positional dominance. He expects a 29-28 unanimous decision for Makhachev, possibly a boring fight. He also notes that even with a perfect camp, Hooker would likely lose.
Drew Dober - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 1 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 76 | 35% | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 1 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 22 of 55 | 40% | 9 of 33 | 7 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 21 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 27 of 76 | 35% | 18 of 55 | 0 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 11 of 29 | 37% | 2 of 14 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 18 of 51 | 35% | 9 of 31 | 0 of 11 | 9 of 9 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Drew Dober as a slight underdog over Michael Johnson, but with very low confidence. He notes Johnson is inconsistent and his recent wins are against weak competition, while Dober's chin may be fading after brutal KO losses. However, Brady thinks Dober hits harder and could catch Johnson, predicting a second-round KO. He acknowledges the fight is a toss-up and trusts neither fighter.
Cody picks Johnson, citing his better speed, boxing, and reach advantage. He notes Dober's recent knockout losses and regression, while Johnson is on a three-fight win streak. He expects Johnson to win by knockout or decision.
Connor picks Johnson, citing Dober's clear decline in recent fights, especially the Kyle Propolek fight where Dober looked slow and unfocused. He notes that Johnson has maintained a consistent level and still has sharp counterpunching and good first-level takedown defense. Connor believes Dober's durability has faded and his pressure style leaves him open to counters, which Johnson can exploit.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Drew Dober as an underdog, expecting an early scare followed by a late knockout. He notes that Michael Johnson's speed fades with age, and Dober's durability and power can turn the tide. Vreeland compares it to Dober's fight against Bobby Green, where he took punishment early and finished later.
James picks Michael Johnson because he is faster and hits just as hard as Dober, and he expects Johnson to land first. He notes Dober's declining durability and hittability, making him vulnerable to a knockout. James predicts a KO finish, likely by Johnson, and suggests betting on the fight ending via KO.
Johnson is the better technical striker with cleaner counters. Dober is explosive but vulnerable to counters. Johnson's speed and power should allow him to land a big shot and put Dober away. Johnson by knockout.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Johnson due to his power, volume, and footwork. He mentions Dober's durability issues and Johnson's ability to fight to his opponent's level. He expects Johnson to either knock Dober out or win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober, believing he will walk through Johnson's shots and land a KO. He compares it to the Bobby Green fight and predicts a second-round TKO. He mentions Dober's whiteboard and obsession with finishing Johnson.
Zane also picks Johnson, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He emphasizes that Dober's recent performances show a fighter who is no longer present in the moment, similar to Tony Ferguson's decline. Zane notes that Johnson's speed and counterpunching are still dangerous, and Dober's tendency to lead with his face makes him vulnerable. He sees Johnson as the more reliable fighter at this stage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 51 of 164 | 31% | 51 of 164 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 83 of 161 | 51% | 85 of 163 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 17 of 66 | 25% | 17 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 28 of 58 | 48% | 28 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 27 of 80 | 33% | 27 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 35 of 58 | 60% | 36 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Prepolec | 51 of 164 | 31% | 36 of 139 | 7 of 13 | 8 of 12 | 51 of 164 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 83 of 161 | 51% | 46 of 117 | 18 of 22 | 19 of 22 | 77 of 153 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Prepolec | 17 of 66 | 25% | 11 of 53 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 17 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 28 of 58 | 48% | 12 of 40 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 11 | 28 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kyle Prepolec | 27 of 80 | 33% | 20 of 70 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 27 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 35 of 58 | 60% | 18 of 36 | 11 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 35 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kyle Prepolec | 7 of 18 | 38% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 20 of 45 | 44% | 16 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 37 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dober (-500); Prepolec (+375)
Round 1
Chins will be tested when this lightweight matchup is all said and done. Dober (27-15, 1 NC; 13-11, 1 NC UFC) may be one of the quietest recordholders in the promotion, as he and Dustin Poirier remain tied for the most knockouts (nine) in the history of the division. He gains a fortuitous matchup in Canada’s Prepolec (18-9, 0-3 UFC), who with a win tonight would earn his first in the Octagon after four efforts. The two will be joined by referee John Cooper, who will keep things on the up-and-up as the fighters choose not to touch gloves.
Prepolec offers an early low kick, and he leans back out of range from a check right hook. Both men land at the end of punches, and Dober scores a low kick behind it. Dober turns his hips behind another hefty leg kick, and he fires one more off and cracks Prepolec with a left hand. Prepolec boots Dober in the face with his shin, and Dober completely ignores it and pops him with a one-two. Dober has his guard up to defend against a high kick the next time, and he swats away all but a body shot from the Canadian. Dober lunges in with a flurry of punches, his left hook finding the target. Dober goes low with a kick and high upstairs with a right hand. A Dober left misses by a hair, and Prepolec’s counters fall short as well. Dober pounds the front leg and puts fists on face immediately thereafter, with Prepolec left playing second fiddle with little more than an overhand left.
Dober scores with his left and chops the front leg with a kick, and he aims a body shot but is kicked back by the Canadian. Dober reaches with his big left, and his body kick plants on the torso. Dober kicks the thigh, and the leg brushes up against the cup. Prepolec waves Cooper off and they keep going. Dober’s kicks have started to have an impact on Prepolec’s front wheel, as Prepolec is ginger on it and open to big left hands. Dober catches him at the end of his left, and he flashes out a few jabs to set up a body shot. Dober backs his man off only to walk into a combination, and Prepolec grins. Even when Prepolec blocks a head kick, the impact of it bangs into his head. Dober whiffs on a wheel kick, clearly feeling himself in the Octagon. Prepolec doubles up jabs to mark up Dober’s nose, and he slips a punch and scores a straight left. Both men toss out head kicks, and Prepolec goes to the body. Prepolec’s jabs further bloody Dober’s nose, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dober
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dober
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dober
Round 2
The lightweights bump fists this round, and Dober says hello with a low kick that transitions into a wheel kick. Prepolec tries to defend a low kick by raising his knee, but that only opens Dober up to throw a body shot. Prepolec strings together his own counters, and Dober takes them on the chin and swings back with bad intentions. Prepolec gets back behind his jab and two, and the nose of Dober begins to leak again. Prepolec checks a kick with an audible thud to it and splits Dober’s shin wide open, and he punches Dober in the face with both fists—one after the other, not at once. Dober shrugs it off and tries to brawl, only for Prepolec to answer him with two upstairs and a head kick. Dober rips the body and jams a kick on the lead leg, and Prepolec is ginger on it after taking damage. Dober kicks it on the inside and swipes out with a pair of hooks, and his left hand is catching the Canadian but not seeming to slow him. Dober gets off the wheel kick he was seeking, banging it into Prepolec’s raised guard. Dober slips a punch and counters with a big left hand up top.
Dober leaps forward behind a Superman punch, and Prepolec’s chin holds up well as he tanks it and hurls back. Dober goes to the body, and Prepolec returns fire with a few punches and a head kick that Dober rolls. Prepolec checks another kick, and Dober stumbles back from it. Prepolec slaps his foe’s inside thigh, and Dober blasts him with a left hand. Prepolec tries to spin through it with a back fist, but it is out of range. Prepolec snaps Dober’s head back with a right hand, and Dober belts him in the belly with his non-damaged shin. Dober opens up with power punches, and Prepolec stands in the pocket and bangs with him, even shaking Dober up with a left hand. Dober suddenly shoots in for a single-leg takedown, and Prepolec sits him up and staves it off. Both men stand up, and Dober bounces a left hand off the temple and releases his opponent’s leg. Prepolec chains a left hand into a head kick, and Dober is wearing it at this point but has hit Prepolec with everything and the kitchen sink. Prepolec splits the guard with an uppercut, and he knocks Dober to his knees with a ferocious left hand. Right before Prepolec is about to annihilate Dober with what would be an illegal soccer kick with Dober’s knee down, the round ends and Cooper is between them.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prepolec
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Prepolec
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Prepolec
Round 3
When the last round begins, Dober shouts, “Let’s do it!” They nod to one another, touch gloves, and swing for the fences. Prepolec boots Dober in the face with his foot, and Dober races after him with flailing punches. Dober unleashes a low kick with everything behind it, and it crashes directly into Prepolec’s cup. Prepolec collapses to the floor, and Cooper goes to the Canadian and practically begs him to take as much time as he needs instead of hurrying back. The partisan crowd starts a booming, profane chant of “F--- Drew Dober,” as Prepolec is in agony on his knees. Two minutes into the five-minute window, and Prepolec stands back up, albeit hunched over. Cooper keeps Prepolec informed of how much time he has left, and Prepolec responds that he is starting to feel better. Due to the severity of the foul, Cooper elects to deduct one point from Dober—this is the right call given the fight-changing nature of the illegal kick. Prepolec asks for them to restart the fight, and after 4:10 of recovery time, he is good to go.
Dober rushes after the Canadian and starts swinging for the bleachers. Practically sprinting at his opponent, Dober hurls punches in bunches and knocks Prepolec’s head around the cage. Prepolec leans over and takes a brutal knee to the chest that further makes him double over. Prepolec skirts away, and Dober rushes after him with one goal in mind: smash the Canadian’s face. Dober takes the counters that Prepolec offers, including a head kick or two, because he is a man possessed.
Backing Prepolec up against the cage, Dober blasts his man with a knee, an elbow and one final surge of punches. With Prepolec leaned over in bad shape, Cooper saves him from further punishment, and the fans are not having it.
Dober apologizes to the Vancouver masses for sending their fighter out like that, and they appear to accept his apology and stop raining down boos. While claps are sporadic, a few in the building realize the significance of Dober now the solo recordholder for the most knockouts in UFC lightweight history with 10.
The Official Result
Drew Dober def. Kyle Prepolec R3 1:16 via TKO (Elbow and Punches)
Angelo picks Drew Dober to win, citing his technical striking and ability to grapple if needed. He notes Dober's recent chin issues but believes Kyle Prepolec is not a UFC-caliber fighter and lacks power. He expects Dober to find a finish, making him a good fantasy play at $9,400.
Big Brady is concerned about Drew Dober's age, fight mileage, and recent chin issues, but believes the skill gap is massive in Dober's favor. He notes Prepolec has never been knocked out and is likely more durable at this stage. He picks Dober by decision, staying away from the -550 price.
Cody picks Prepolec, citing value. He notes Dober's chin is declining and he has been knocked out recently. Prepolec has never been knocked out and has a full camp. Cody believes Prepolec can catch Dober and win by knockout, but admits it's a value play.
Connor picks Drew Dober but is hesitant, acknowledging that Dober seems to have lost his confidence and timing after the Manuel Torres loss. He notes that Prepolec is a tough slugger who has never been knocked out, and that Dober's usual brawling approach may not work anymore. However, Connor still expects Dober to win because Prepolec is a step down in competition.
James picks Dober to win but notes value on Prepolec as an underdog. He questions Dober's recent chin issues after knockouts by Jean Silva and Matt Frevola, while Prepolec has never been knocked out. James expects a striking battle where Prepolec could land a head kick, but ultimately favors Dober's speed and experience.
The host is not a big fan of Dober at the super chalky line given his recent form and Prepolec being a striker himself. However, he still thinks Dober is the better all-around fighter and should mix striking and grappling to win on the scorecards, provided his durability holds up.
Paul leans Prepolec, agreeing with Cody on value. He notes Dober's durability is a question and Prepolec has power. Paul says he'll have a small bet on Prepolec but has low conviction.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Kyle Prepolec. He acknowledges Dober's recent KO loss to Manuel Torres but attributes that to Torres being a genetic freak with nasty power. He believes Dober still has it and will beat Prepolec easily, noting Prepolec shouldn't be in the UFC. He predicts a TKO in the second round.
Zane picks Kyle Prepolec as a wild flyer, citing Dober's recent struggles and loss of confidence. He notes that Prepolec is a tough slugger who has never been knocked out, and that Dober's path to victory is to slug it out, which may no longer work. Zane is not confident but sees value in the underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres | 1 | 23 of 25 | 92% | 23 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Torres | 1 | 23 of 25 | 92% | 23 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres | 23 of 25 | 92% | 21 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 16 |
| Drew Dober | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Torres | 23 of 25 | 92% | 21 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 16 |
| Drew Dober | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
James picks Drew Dober to win, arguing that Torres has never won outside round one except for a split decision where he gassed, and that elevation will worsen his cardio. He highlights Dober's elite chin, cardio, and forward pressure, noting Dober's last fight against Jean Silva showed his durability. James believes Dober will survive Torres' early onslaught and then dominate in rounds two and three, likely finishing Torres. He also mentions a potential submission angle for Torres but favors Dober's path to victory.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Silva | 0 | 59 of 147 | 40% | 59 of 148 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 53 of 109 | 48% | 53 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Silva | 0 | 20 of 58 | 34% | 20 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 16 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jean Silva | 0 | 30 of 70 | 42% | 30 of 71 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 31 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jean Silva | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Silva | 59 of 147 | 40% | 29 of 109 | 21 of 28 | 9 of 10 | 55 of 138 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 53 of 109 | 48% | 37 of 89 | 15 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 48 of 101 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Silva | 20 of 58 | 34% | 7 of 41 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 16 of 42 | 38% | 10 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jean Silva | 30 of 70 | 42% | 17 of 53 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 26 of 61 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 31 of 55 | 56% | 23 of 45 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Jean Silva | 9 of 19 | 47% | 5 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jean Silva, having bet on him at +105. He believes Silva is the better striker and would win with a full camp, but cautions about the quick turnaround (fighting two weeks after UFC 303) and moving up in weight. He notes that Silva opened as an underdog but has become the favorite, and advises that betting at plus money was good but at current minus odds may not be worth it. He acknowledges Drew Dober's durability and chin.
Cody picks Jean Silva, impressed by his power and durability shown against Charles Jourdain. He believes Dober's chin is declining and that Silva's pressure and power will be too much. He notes Silva's camp at Fighting Nerds and his ability to generate power from any position.
Daniel Vreeland picks Drew Dober over Jean Silva. He cites Dober's experience, power, and size advantage as a true lightweight, while Silva is moving up from featherweight. He notes Dober's status as a lightweight KO king and that he lives in Colorado, giving him an altitude advantage. He acknowledges Silva's impressive performances but thinks the quick turnaround and elevation may affect him. He leans with the veteran Dober.
Drew Dober is the more technical striker. If he can stay competitive early, Jean Silva will slow down due to altitude and whiffing. Dober's solid striking defense will allow him to turn up the pace and potentially put Silva away in the second or third round.
Paul picks Jean Silva, citing his power and the fact that Dober's chin may be fading. He notes Silva's performance against Jourdain and believes Silva's pressure will overwhelm Dober. He expects an entertaining fight with a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 142 of 177 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 10:33 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 23 of 59 | 38% | 36 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 43 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 34 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:19 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 17 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 3 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 65 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 23 of 42 | 54% | 20 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 13 |
| Drew Dober | 23 of 59 | 38% | 17 of 50 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Drew Dober | 6 of 20 | 30% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Drew Dober | 6 of 13 | 46% | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | |
| 3 | Renato Moicano | 15 of 25 | 60% | 14 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
| Drew Dober | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Drew Dober, trusting his chin and brawling ability. He notes that Moicano is chinny and hasn't fought in a year. He believes Dober can bait Moicano into a firefight and knock him out. He has a half-unit bet on Dober at +125.
Big Brady picks Renato Moicano to win by first-round submission. He notes that Moicano has a huge advantage on the ground, and Dober has been submitted multiple times. However, Moicano sometimes falls in love with striking, which would be dangerous against Dober's power. Brady thinks Moicano will take Dober down and submit him, but acknowledges it's a 50-50 fight.
Cody picks Moicano, citing Dober's declining durability and Moicano's superior grappling and angles. He notes Dober's chin is fading after the Fialho knockout, and Moicano can set up takedowns with his jab. He sees Moicano by submission as a strong prop.
Moicano has a tremendous BJJ black belt and should be able to drag Dober to the ground and sink in a rear naked choke. However, the host is hesitant due to Moicano's long layoff and knee surgery at 34 years old. Dober has power and good cardio, but is at a skill disadvantage on the ground. The host expects the fight not to go to decision, with Moicano winning by submission.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Moicano. He highlights Dober's reckless pressure and suspect takedown defense, while Moicano's jab and movement should set up takedowns. He notes Moicano's losses are to elite fighters, and Dober has never been at that level.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Renato Moicano, predicting a TKO. He cites Moicano's long layoff since November 2022 due to a leg injury, and doubts he will look his best. He believes Dober has more power on the feet and has impressive wins over Terrance McKinney, Rafael Alves, and Bobby Green. He thinks Moicano will struggle to take Dober down and that Dober will catch him with his hands down, Korean Zombie style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 1 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Ricky Glenn | 0 | 5 of 22 | 22% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 1 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Ricky Glenn | 0 | 5 of 22 | 22% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 30 of 53 | 56% | 19 of 40 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 12 |
| Ricky Glenn | 5 of 22 | 22% | 2 of 15 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 30 of 53 | 56% | 19 of 40 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 12 |
| Ricky Glenn | 5 of 22 | 22% | 2 of 15 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Drew Dober confidently, citing his technical kickboxing, power, and willingness to brawl. He notes that Ricky Glenn struggles when opponents bring a brawl. However, he expresses concern about Dober's chin after his knockout loss to Matt Frevola, wondering if it's the beginning of the end. He has Dober in a parlay with Kanako Murata, calling it risky.
Big Brady is very confident in Drew Dober, calling the matchup questionable and noting Ricky Glenn's poor performance in his last fight. He believes Glenn looks washed and has had long layoffs due to injuries. He expects Dober's power to be too much, predicting a first-round knockout despite Glenn only being knocked out once in his career.
Cody picks Dober but is hesitant, noting that Dober's chin may be compromised after his knockout loss to Matt Frevola. He acknowledges Glenn's sneaky power and low activity, but believes Dober's experience and power give him the edge. He does not like the line and sees better value elsewhere.
Daniel Levi picks Drew Dober, noting that Dober has always been a step ahead of Ricky Glenn in competition. He highlights Dober's power and his record for most KOs in the lightweight division, but also acknowledges Glenn's durability (only one KO loss in over 30 fights). He thinks Dober should get back on track but doesn't guarantee a KO.
Lucrative James predicts Dober wins by knockout in round two or three. He thinks the line is wide but Dober should get the finish. He notes Dober has good takedown defense but struggles to get back up if taken down. He believes Glenn is slowing down and Dober will eventually crack his chin.
Dober has power and speed advantages, and Glenn has durability concerns after a long layoff and surgeries. However, Dober is unreliable as a heavy favorite and Glenn can also knock him out. The fight likely ends inside the distance, with Dober getting a KO, but the odds are too high to trust. I predict Dober by KO but won't bet the moneyline.
Paul picks Ricky Glenn as a value play, citing Dober's recent knockout loss and Glenn's volatility. He notes that Glenn has sneaky power and could catch Dober. However, he is not highly confident, calling it a high-volatility fight. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop as a safer bet.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Ricky Glenn, predicting a TKO. He jokes about Dober's racially motivated power but seriously notes Glenn looked like an 'old age pensioner' in his last fight against Christos Giagos, slow and predictable. He believes Dober has decent takedown defense and will land body shots, finishing Glenn in the late first round. He also mentions Glenn stands upright, making him vulnerable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 20 of 59 | 33% | 20 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 1 | 35 of 75 | 46% | 39 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Frevola | 0 | 20 of 59 | 33% | 20 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 1 | 35 of 75 | 46% | 39 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Frevola | 20 of 59 | 33% | 12 of 50 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 35 of 75 | 46% | 26 of 61 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Frevola | 20 of 59 | 33% | 12 of 50 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 35 of 75 | 46% | 26 of 61 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 15 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dober (-205), Frevola (+175)
Round 1
What many are coining the must-watch battle of the evening takes place in the ESPN prelim headliner, when hard-chinned brawler Dober (26-11, 1 NC; 12-7, 1 NC UFC) throws down with aggressive action fighter Frevola (10-3-1, 4-3-1 UFC). Ahead of what hopes to be a lightweight thriller, the two men bump fists. Referee Herb Dean stands at the ready. Frevola engages with a jab and a body kick, and the latter lands flush. Dober counters with a left hand, and he gets tagged with a right hand over the top. Frevola comes at his foe with a superman punch and a head kick, and he scores a right hand that gives Dober pause. They crash together and bump heads together, and Dober gets a left hand to find the chin. Frevola flails back with powerful punches, and he changes levels and bails on it to knee the body. Dober swats away a kick to his ribs, and he gives Frevola a shove. Frevola slides a punch but cannot dodge the subsequent body shot. A few punches from Frevola bust open Dober’s nose, and he fights his way of the fence. Dober keeps walking him down, slipping a pair of hooks and walking him down. Dober thumps a left to the body, and Frevola loads up with everything he has to fire back. Dober sticks a straight right down the pipe that reddens Frevola’s nose, and he is backing Frevola off but not slowing his offense. Frevola sings a few right hands, and they crash together swinging fists. Both split apart, no worse for wear, and Frevola boots him upside the head with his shin. Dober practically ignores it to retaliate with a one-two, and a left to the body. Frevola connects with another Superman punch, and Dober wobbles but continues marching forward. Dober looses head kicks, and one slides under the arm to the upper ribs.
Frevola sits down on a right hand that pounds square into Dober's perfect jawline, and Dober collapses to his seat. Sensing he might be able to pull off the finish and upset, Frevola leaps on top and hammers Dober with a lengthy barrage of unanswered blows. Frevola beats down on Dober with a long stream of punches, and Dober’s eyes roll back briefly before he gets knocked back into his senses.
As Frevola keeps swinging to finish the job, Dean steps in to wave the fight off, and Dober immediately protests. Dober tries to get back to his feet to show he can still fight and that Dean made a mistake, but he is wobbling on his feet and barely upright. Blood streams from Dober’s face, and the fight is officially over. Frevola goes over to make sure there is no bad blood, and tensions cool down.
The Official Result
Matt Frevola def. Drew Dober R1 4:08 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Matt Frevola, citing his recent knockout power and wrestling ability. He thinks Drew Dober's chin may finally be wearing out from accumulated damage, and that Frevola is smart enough to mix in takedowns rather than brawl. Angelo notes Frevola's confidence from back-to-back KO wins and believes he can land, shoot, and grind to victory. He has a quarter unit on Frevola at +185, calling it great odds for a guy with power and wrestling.
Big Brady picks Dober, expecting a stand-up war. He notes Frevola has power but tends to brawl, and Dober has one of the best chins in the UFC. He believes if Frevola stands and trades, Dober will knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Frevola has been knocked out before and Dober's durability is elite.
Cody emphasizes Dober's incredible chin and power, noting that Frevola has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He points out that Dober survived a knockdown from Terence McKinney and came back to win, while McKinney knocked out Frevola in 7 seconds. He expects Dober to land big shots and knock Frevola out, possibly under 1.5 rounds.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dober's pressure and ability to come back from being hurt make him the pick. He notes Frevola has been knocked out too many times and that Dober's losses come only to elite wrestlers. Connor sees Frevola's path as unlikely.
The host picks Drew Dober, believing his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land cleanly on Matt Frevola. He notes Dober's defensive grappling should nullify Frevola's takedowns. He expects a knockout and recommends the fight doesn't go to decision as the best bet.
Paul agrees, calling Dober's chin one of the best in the game. He notes Frevola's path is to grapple early, but at range Dober has a clear advantage. He predicts Dober knocks him out, as Frevola has struggled against power punchers.
The Guru picks Dober, calling Frevola a scrappier, worse version of Dober. He notes Dober's chin and ability to survive storms, while Frevola has been finished by lesser fighters. He expects a stand-up fight with Dober finishing Frevola in the first round via being more technical and tough in the pocket.
Zane picks Drew Dober because Dober is more reliable in a brawl, with excellent pocket composure and body work. He notes Frevola may have a wrestling out but is likely to get drawn into a war. Dober's defensive wrestling is solid but not ironclad, but Frevola's tendency to brawl and get knocked out makes Dober the clear pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 1 | 34 of 121 | 28% | 34 of 121 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| King Green | 0 | 73 of 142 | 51% | 75 of 145 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 0 | 17 of 71 | 23% | 17 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| King Green | 0 | 39 of 87 | 44% | 40 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 1 | 17 of 50 | 34% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| King Green | 0 | 34 of 55 | 61% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 34 of 121 | 28% | 16 of 86 | 9 of 21 | 9 of 14 | 33 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| King Green | 73 of 142 | 51% | 50 of 113 | 17 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 72 of 141 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 17 of 71 | 23% | 5 of 50 | 7 of 13 | 5 of 8 | 17 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 39 of 87 | 44% | 27 of 71 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 38 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 17 of 50 | 34% | 11 of 36 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 16 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| King Green | 34 of 55 | 61% | 23 of 42 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 34 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Drew Dober hesitantly, acknowledging that this is a very tough fight to call. He notes Dober has a great chin and power, while Bobby Green is more technically sound with higher volume and better defense. He worries that Dober might get touched up like in the Nazrat fight. He plans to stay away from betting on this fight due to low confidence.
Big Brady picks Bobby Green as an underdog, citing his recent impressive performances and high volume. He worries about Green's fight IQ and the judges, but thinks Green will outland Dober. He notes Dober will land the harder shots but Green's volume should win rounds. He also mentions Green could wrestle but likely won't. He predicts a close decision win for Green.
Cody picks Dober, believing his power and durability will sway judges. He notes Dober sits down on his punches and has good leg kicks. He thinks Green's flat-footed boxing style and head-shaking may not impress judges. He expects a close decision win for Dober and considers Dober by decision.
Green is a solid spot here. Dober has recency bias from two straight KOs, but Green is much more durable than those opponents (Rafael Alves, Terrence McKinney). Green will outstrike Dober, throw more combinations, and take home a decision. The line stayed around +130 to +135.
Paul leans Green, thinking he is a cleaner, more dynamic boxer who can win on volume. He notes Green has insane durability and will outland Dober. However, he is hesitant because Dober lands bigger shots and judges may favor damage. He says if the lines were flipped he wouldn't touch it, but at plus money he considers it.
The MMA Guru picks King Green over Drew Dober, despite many picking Dober. He compares Dober to Rafael Fiziev, whom Green nearly beat, and believes Green's style of straight punches and range control will trouble Dober. He notes Green's reach and height advantages and expects him to pepper Dober, swelling his eye and nose, and win a 29-28 decision. He also thinks Dober may not react well to Green's taunting.
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing Dober's 58% takedown defense and history of being submitted. He notes Dober's only path is a knockout, but Makhachev's game plan of clinching and taking down should prevail. He predicts a dominant decision win and mentions Makhachev as a parlay piece.
Daniel picks Islam Makhachev, citing his superior wrestling and takedowns, noting that Dober gets taken down even in wins. He acknowledges Dober's power but believes Makhachev will control the fight and win by decision or submission.
Makhachev has a huge grappling advantage and should be able to take Dober down at will. Dober's last three losses are by submission, and Makhachev is a high-level grappler. The host predicts a submission win in round one or two.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win by submission. He notes Dober has been submitted before and has poor grappling defense, while Makhachev has great grappling. He predicts Makhachev will take Dober down and get a rear-naked choke finish, though he cautions that Makhachev is not as good as Khabib and could be vulnerable on the feet.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!