vs
-400 +350
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 06, 2021 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 37
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Islam Makhachev
2.45 SLpM
58.0% Str. Acc.
1.45 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
3.1 TD Avg
56.0% TD Acc.
91.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Drew Dober
4.48 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
4.33 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.61 TD Avg
16.0% TD Acc.
58.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Islam Makhachev
Moneyline
BetWay -400
KO/TKO
BetWay +650
Submission
BetWay +275
Decision
BetWay -118
Drew Dober
Moneyline
FanDuel +350
KO/TKO
BetWay +450
Submission
BetWay +1600
Decision
BetWay +900
Islam Makhachev - Fight History
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 18 of 61 29% 30 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 30 of 57 52% 140 of 188 4 of 4 100% 0 0 19:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 4 of 18 22% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 3 of 8 37% 20 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:52
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 3 of 6 50% 6 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 9 of 17 52% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:05
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 11 of 18 61% 32 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:06
4 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 11 9% 1 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 7 of 12 58% 30 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:24
5 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 0 of 2 0% 22 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 18 of 61 29% 10 of 45 6 of 12 2 of 4 14 of 56 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 30 of 57 52% 14 of 40 6 of 7 10 of 10 20 of 41 3 of 4 7 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 4 of 18 22% 3 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 2 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 3 of 8 37% 0 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jack Della Maddalena 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 9 of 17 52% 6 of 13 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 6 1 of 2 5 of 9
3 Jack Della Maddalena 9 of 20 45% 4 of 12 4 of 7 1 of 1 5 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 11 of 18 61% 5 of 12 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 2
4 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 11 9% 0 of 8 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Makhachev (-270), Della Maddalena (+220)

Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Makhachev opens with a low keg kcik. Maddalena immediately pressures behind a combination. Makhachev with a front kick down the middle but Maddalena has his guard up. Maddalena moves in with a combination. It’s a about a minute in when Makhachev shoots for his first takedown, and he gets it by tripping the Aussie to the mat. Makhachev in half guard, applying heavy top pressure. Makhachev looks for openings to land offense, and he lands short elbows and punches. Maddalena creates a scramble and gets to his feet, but Makhachev jumps on his back. The champ goes to his back, so Makhachev is in top position again, working from half guard. It’s all defense for Maddalena, who’s trying to limit his opponent’s offense from above. Makhachev looks to advance to lock up a choke. Maddalena seems to be wise to it, and he recovers full guard. The round ends with Maddalena landing an illegal upkick on Makhachev, who had a knee down.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 2
Maddalena misses a front kick and Makhachev answers with a hard calf kick. Makhachev leaps in with a two-punch combo then moves away. Makhachev lands a leg kick and then slides away with his jab. Maddalena partially blocks a high kick. Maddalena lands a solid shot as Makhachev closes the range. The Dagestani shoves his foe into the fence. Maddalena tries to defend by stepping over the top, but he ends up on his back near the fence. Makhachev works from half guard with 3:00 to go in the frame. Makhachev drops an elbow as he methodically controls the action. Maddalena isn’t doing much in the way of initiating a scramble. Short elbows land for Makhachev. The combatants move further away from the fence, and it’s still Makhachev in control. Maddalena considers moving to a hip but thinks better of it, maybe due to the threat of the submission. Makhachev creates some room to drop a series of elbows. Maddalena gets to his feet with about 10 seconds to go. Makhachev ends the frame with a knee to the body. One-way traffic so far.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 3
Maddalena throws a jab and then an inside leg kick. A much harder low kick lands for Makhachev. A calf kick from Makhachev makes Maddalena stumble. Makhachev picks up the pace and lands a combination. They clinch, and Maddalena finds a home for some body work. Makhachev attacks with a leg kick before executing a quick level change — and Maddalena is back on the floor. Maddalena does a good job defending his opponent’s desired choke, but Makhachev is otherwise in a dominant position again. Makhachev works diligently to pass guard as he peppers his foe with short punches. Makhachev switches from punches to elbows while continuing to apply top pressure. Maddalena gets to his knees, but he’s unable to create anything during a late scramble before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 4
Maddalena tries a high kick but Makhachev is ready for it. Makhachev lands a body kick as his opponent moves forward. Makhachev lands an inside leg kick. Another body kick connects for the Dagestani. Maddalena isn’t offering much in the way of offense at this point in the fight. Another low kick makes Maddalena hop briefly. Suddenly, Makhachev explodes for a takedown and he gets it with about 3:30 left in the period. Maddalena tries to create space with his guard, but Makhachev floats on top and deftly transitions to the back. The former lightweight king locks in a body triangle, and then he briefly collects one of Maddalena’s arms. The Aussie frees his limb, but he’s flat on his back again. It’s rinse and repeat for Makhachev, who continues to maintain significant pressure from half guard. Makhachev is thinking about a kimura, and Maddalena scoots to a seated position. Maddalena stands with 10 seconds left, but he can’t break his foe’s grip before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 5
Like Weili Zhang before him, Maddalena needs a miracle to come out with a victory. Maddalena tries to pressure early, but Makhachev takes him down with ease less than 30 seconds into the period. Makhachev is looking to frame a kimura once again, but Maddalena escapes the submission. It’s essentially turned into a repeat of the earlier rounds. Maddalena doesn’t have any answers for Makhachev, and the only suspense at this point is whether the Dagestani will be able to secure a submission before the final horn. For now, Makhachev is just staying busy with pressure and occasional offense from top position. Maddalena briefly recovers full guard, but he’s grimacing as Makhachev continues to impose his will. Makhachev briefly has a choke locked in, but Maddalena again avoids the finish. As time ticks away, an “Islam” chant rains down, led by Khabib Nurmagomedov from the corner. Maddalena scrambles up right before the horn once again, but it’s of little importance. Makhachev has his 16th consecutive victory in hand, and he’s about to be a two-division champion.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)

The Official Result
Islam Makhachev def. Jack Della Maddalena via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) R5 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, emphasizing his relentless wrestling and ability to chain takedowns. He acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's size and scrambling but believes Islam's wrestling pressure will be too much. He notes this is a tough fight due to JDM's size but still picks Islam.

"I'm gonna go with the wrestler here... I think the relentless wrestling pressure from Islam is going to be enough."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev, citing Jack Della Maddalena's history of making mistakes on the ground, such as surviving deep submissions against Anshul Jubli and Ramazan Emeev. He believes Makhachev will capitalize on those mistakes, get takedowns, and secure a submission, likely a D'Arce choke. Brady notes Della Maddalena has been taken down frequently and thinks Makhachev's grappling is on another level. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Islamachev to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing that Islam's wrestling and game plan are perfectly suited to beat Jack. He notes that Jack's takedown defense was exposed by Belal and Gilbert Burns, who are not on Islam's level. Cody highlights that Islam has Khabib in his corner and will stick to the game plan of taking Jack down and controlling him. He predicts a decision or late finish for Islam.

"ride this man like a miniature pony for 25 minutes, pick up a decision, or finish him late if the opportunity opens up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev based on his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Makhachev has diverse takedown entries and rarely loses positions, while Della Maddalena has shown takedown defense issues and made bad grappling decisions against Belal. He acknowledges Della Maddalena's punching power but believes Makhachev's wrestling will be the deciding factor.

Odds: Makhachev opened -265, now -250; Della Maddalena opened +225, now +210. Connor mentions the line move and jokes about fight fixing.
"I still have to pick Makachev just out of hand here. I really cannot watch the body of work that both men have done and say that I trust JDM to stay on his feet and out punch Makachev at …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Jack's toughness and underrated grappling, but believes Islam's grappling is on another level. He notes that Jack has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Islam's darce choke and grip strength are exceptional. He expects Islam to capitalize on the ground where others couldn't, but warns that if the fight stays on the feet, Jack could hurt Islam with body shots.

"I think I got to go with Makachev because I've seen Jack in those vulnerable spots on the mat and I think that Islam can capitalize where other guys weren't able to do it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win by decision. He believes Islam's grappling is a massive advantage, as he will take JDM down and control him, similar to his fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. He notes JDM's improved grappling defense but thinks Islam's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are too much. He predicts the fight goes the distance, with Islam winning via control and possibly threatening submissions but not finishing.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to pick Islam Makv. I'm going to pick him via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's move to welterweight is calculated. He wears Della Maddalena down with wrestling. Della Maddalena's BJJ improvements keep him from being finished, but Makhachev wins on the scorecards to become champion.

"Look for Makachev to really wear Matalena down. Although I expect the BJJ improvements of Matalena to keep him out of trouble in terms of getting finished. Thus, I'm going to put pick Makashev to win this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Islam's wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Jack's takedown defense has improved but that Belal Muhammad had success wrestling late in their fight, and Islam is a much better wrestler. He also points out that Jack's win over Belal was a split decision and that he was controlled on the ground. Paul thinks Islam's size is not a concern and that he will bring the title back to Dagestan.

"the title's coming home to Dagestan on Saturday night."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by TKO in round three or four. He believes JDM's grappling defense and scrambling ability will neutralize Makhachev's takedowns, and his striking volume and body work will take over in later rounds. He compares JDM to a better version of Dustin Poirier, who had success against Makhachev. The Guru sees Makhachev's path to victory only via early submission, which he doubts.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned in prizepicks segment)
"I'm going with Jack Dela Madelena. I think this is actually Makashev's [ __ ] arm holding the belt, which doesn't bode well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev due to his wrestling advantage. He highlights that Della Maddalena struggled with Belal's wrestling and that Makhachev is a much better wrestler. He also notes the weight class change and Makhachev's potential decline but still favors him.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"So yeah, I think you have to pick Makachev, but that is fascinating. It's the champion taking literally the most dangerous..."
Submission (brabo choke) R1 4:05 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 19 31% 18 of 31 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:27
Renato Moicano 0 9 of 27 33% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 19 31% 18 of 31 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:27
Renato Moicano 0 9 of 27 33% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Renato Moicano 9 of 27 33% 2 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Renato Moicano 9 of 27 33% 2 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, noting his improvements in striking and his wrestling dominance. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's takedown of Makhachev in their first fight but believes Makhachev's size, cardio, and overall game will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's chin being questionable after being dropped by a 40-year-old Silva.

"I think he wins here I think he gets it done I think the wrestling will be there I think the Striking is going to be better than armen's"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Islam Makhachev to retain, citing Islam's championship experience, improved wrestling, and ability to handle five rounds. He notes that Arman Tsarukyan has improved but still relies heavily on wrestling and tends to tire in later rounds. Cody also mentions that Islam has already beaten Tsarukyan once and has only gotten better since. He suggests a live bet strategy or a small hedge on Tsarukyan if the parlay is still alive.

Live bet strategy: if Makhachev wins first round, cash; if loses, get better live price. Also mentions hedging with Tsarukyan if parlay is alive.
"I expect michev to win the longer it goes but if he can win the first round oh we're money if he loses the first round you could get a better live price on it in the betting Market"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior poise, technical striking, and defensive wrestling. He notes that Makhachev has become one of the best strikers in the division with a calm, principled approach, while Arman still fights with tension and wastes energy. Connor emphasizes that Makhachev's ability to stay relaxed and make good decisions under pressure gives him a clear edge, especially given their first fight where Makhachev outlasted Arman. He acknowledges Arman's improvements in finishing ability but believes Makhachev's overall game has grown more.

Odds opened at -336, now -366; Arman opened +278, now +299. Connor thinks the line is too wide but is confident in Makhachev.
"I think we're both warming ourselves up here for the eventual we're picking Islam Makhachev to win the match."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Daniel picks Moicano as a significant underdog, citing that Makhachev's days at 155 are numbered and he is looking to move up to 170. He notes that Makhachev has shown vulnerability in recent fights, with Dustin Poirier stuffing 11 takedowns and Volkanovski stuffing 5. Daniel believes Moicano can match Makhachev's wrestling and has dangerous kicks and knockout power, as seen against Benoit Saint-Denis. He also mentions the location in Los Angeles with a large Armenian population as a motivating factor for Moicano.

Daniel took Moicano at +305 and says he would take him at +300 against any 155-pounder. He mentions the fight being in LA with a large Armenian population as a factor.
"I would take plus 300 on him against anybody I mean right now that's how good of a fighter he is so it's definitely a doger pass situation"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior striking improvements against top competition like Dustin Poirier, Alexander Volkanovski, and Charles Oliveira. He expects the fight to feature more striking than their first bout, where Arman Tsarukyan was hesitant. James notes Islam's experience in five-round fights and counter-wrestling as key advantages, but acknowledges Arman's improved striking and power as potential threats. He mentions Islam's chin as a vulnerability, having been wobbled before, but ultimately believes Islam's overall skill set and prime condition will prevail.

Arman Tsarukyan at +310 is worth a one-unit shot for value
"I ultimately think Islam makev is going to come out with the win I think there's value in Arman surin's price tag at plus 310 he may be worth a one unit shot for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The host acknowledges Tsarukyan has improved since their first fight and his power striking could cause issues. However, he believes Makhachev will create grappling opportunities and squeeze out a decision victory. He likes the fight to go to decision and does not like the heavy chalk on Makhachev but still expects him to win.

fight goes to decision
"I think makev will create grappling opportunities that he will be able to come out ahead on it might be grindy it might be slow it might not be the most entertaining but I think makev will squeeze his way …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul agrees with Cody that Islam Makhachev will retain, noting that Islam has learned from the first fight and has a better understanding of Tsarukyan's style. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's knockout potential but believes Islam's experience and preparation will prevail. Paul also points out that Islam is a rightful favorite and a parlay piece for him this week.

Mentions Tsarukyan by knockout at +600 or +700 as a possible shot, but not banking on it.
"I think Islam retains as well minus 3557 at cool but is the best number on Market uh that I can see right now as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win a close decision. He argues that Arman Tsarukyan cannot finish Makhachev and is unlikely to win a decision due to Makhachev's status. He notes Makhachev's clinch work and body knees are key weapons, and he expects Makhachev to win 3-2 or 4-1 on the scorecards. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's low kicks are not as effective as he remembered.

decision
"mlam makev will win I think he'll win a close decision I think it'll be razor close"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev. He highlights Makhachev's unflappable poise and technical striking, contrasting it with Arman's all-or-nothing style that led to his loss in the first fight. Zane notes that Makhachev has improved significantly since then, becoming a more complete fighter, while Arman still tends to expend energy recklessly. He also points out that Makhachev's southpaw stance could trouble Arman, who hasn't looked great against southpaws. Zane acknowledges Arman's increased violence and finishing ability but believes Makhachev's calmness and defensive skills will prevail.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I think we're both warming ourselves up here for the eventual we're picking Islam Makhachev to win the match."
Submission (brabo choke) R5 2:42 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 88 of 156 56% 147 of 222 5 of 16 31% 2 0 10:23
Dustin Poirier 0 74 of 183 40% 104 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 9 66% 46 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
Dustin Poirier 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Islam Makhachev 0 26 of 46 56% 30 of 50 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:49
Dustin Poirier 0 24 of 58 41% 32 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
3 Islam Makhachev 0 18 of 24 75% 24 of 33 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:10
Dustin Poirier 0 15 of 36 41% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
4 Islam Makhachev 0 20 of 44 45% 29 of 53 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:28
Dustin Poirier 0 23 of 61 37% 34 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
5 Islam Makhachev 0 18 of 33 54% 18 of 33 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:33
Dustin Poirier 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 88 of 156 56% 81 of 148 7 of 7 0 of 1 71 of 136 11 of 14 6 of 6
Dustin Poirier 74 of 183 40% 53 of 159 18 of 20 3 of 4 51 of 157 23 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dustin Poirier 1 of 5 20% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Islam Makhachev 26 of 46 56% 23 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 1 17 of 36 6 of 7 3 of 3
Dustin Poirier 24 of 58 41% 18 of 51 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 47 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Islam Makhachev 18 of 24 75% 18 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 15 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 1
Dustin Poirier 15 of 36 41% 13 of 34 1 of 1 1 of 1 15 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Islam Makhachev 20 of 44 45% 17 of 41 3 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 23 of 61 37% 12 of 49 11 of 12 0 of 0 12 of 50 11 of 11 0 of 0
5 Islam Makhachev 18 of 33 54% 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 11 of 23 47% 9 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing his superior wrestling and pressure. He believes Islam will get takedowns at will and potentially finish Dustin Poirier. He acknowledges Poirier's toughness and one-punch power but thinks the grappling gap is too wide. He mentions a fantasy scenario where Poirier wins by submission but calls it highly unlikely.

"Islam makev is absolutely the pick and I am very confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady is heavily on Islam Makhachev, calling him his favorite play on the board and planning 100% exposure. He expects Islam to get takedowns and finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Dustin Poirier's power and cheap price but sees a very limited path for Poirier. He will sprinkle a little on Poirier but is confident Islam gets the job done inside the distance.

fight doesn't go to decision (-550), Islam Makhachev wins inside the distance, Dustin Poirier to land more than 0.5 significant strikes (free square on PrizePicks)
"I'm going to have a ton of Islam in this matchup he's probably my favorite play on the board"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees Makhachev is the favorite but notes Poirier's puncher's chance and the appealing +500 underdog price. He discusses Poirier's win over Benoît Saint Denis, which he considers tainted due to Saint Denis having a staph infection. Cody believes Makhachev will take Poirier down and grind him out, likely submitting him late or winning by TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds at +145.

over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"Obviously Makhachev is the favorite but he's starting to take on almost too much money... Poirier is a bonafide legend... the more you're getting these giant plus 500 type price tags on them the more appealing it does become."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Vreeland picks Makhachev but disagrees that he's a better striker than Poirier. He notes Makhachev's striking is overrated based on the Volkanovski fight. However, he believes Poirier will give up too many positions and won't be on his feet long enough to win a decision. Vreeland thinks Poirier's only path is a finish, but Makhachev is durable and has gone 25 minutes with Volkanovski. He suggests Poirier's props (KO or submission) are better value than his moneyline.

Poirier by submission +800 or +900, Poirier inside distance
"I don't think makev is as hitable as the people who Dustin PO is beating with his hands"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Islam's dominant grappling and improved striking, noting his win over Volkanovski. He points out that Dustin has faced grapplers like Khabib and Oliveira, but the Dagestani style is uniquely relentless. He mentions the possibility of Poirier landing a check hook like Martins did, but ultimately sees Islam's path to victory as more likely. He is rooting for Poirier but picks Islam as a pure pick.

"as a pure pick I will pick Islam but I'm rooting for porier here"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Jeff Fox picks Makhachev, calling him 'Khabib with hands.' He believes Poirier has no advantage anywhere, especially now that Makhachev is knocking people out on the feet. Fox sees no realm where Poirier is better and expects Makhachev to dominate.

"obviously makev is my pick here he's he's basically khabib with hands"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The host expects Makhachev to take the fight to the ground and submit Poirier, similar to how Khabib and Oliveira did. Poirier's grappling defense has been exploited by elite wrestlers, and Makhachev's pressure and top control should lead to a rear-naked choke. The host sees this as an easy win for Makhachev and likes the submission prop.

submission
"Give me Makhachev, Makhachev by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Makhachev to win, noting Poirier's age (35) and the historical stat that fighters over 35 under 155 lbs are 0-15 in title fights. He believes Makhachev's takedowns will be there whenever he wants, but warns that Makhachev has had bad performances before (like against Adriano Martins and Volkanovski) and could get into trouble if he stands with Poirier. He suggests betting the over 1.5 or over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline at -700.

over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"I don't really like Poirier against any of these Dagestani wrestlers... takedowns are going to be there for Makhachev whenever he wants them."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev, predicting a first-round submission via arm triangle or Von Flue choke. He explains that Poirier's habit of going for guillotines leaves his arm in a vulnerable position. He also notes that Makhachev's striking has evolved to be more counter-based, reducing the chance of getting caught. He mentions Poirier's hip issues limiting his kicks and takedown defense.

Makhachev wins in round 1 by submission (arm triangle or Von Flue choke)
"I think he's going to lose very bad in round one with absolute [__] ease"
KO (head kick and punches) R1 3:06 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 1 24 of 29 82% 39 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Alexander Volkanovski 0 4 of 6 66% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 1 24 of 29 82% 39 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Alexander Volkanovski 0 4 of 6 66% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 24 of 29 82% 13 of 16 9 of 11 2 of 2 7 of 11 8 of 9 9 of 9
Alexander Volkanovski 4 of 6 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 24 of 29 82% 13 of 16 9 of 11 2 of 2 7 of 11 8 of 9 9 of 9
Alexander Volkanovski 4 of 6 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, calling him a discount at -170. He thinks Islam will be all-in on wrestling this time, unlike the first fight where he took Volkanovski lightly. He notes Volkanovski is coming off the couch with no camp, while Islam had a full camp. He expects Islam to tire Volkanovski and win more decisively. He considers Islam safe to parlay.

parlay inclusion, odds comment: discount at -170
"I like Islam to win and uh honestly I think he's a discount right now he's only minus 170"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He notes that Volkanovski is coming off elbow surgery on short notice, while Makhachev is improving, especially in striking. In their first fight, Makhachev clearly won and controlled the grappling. Brady expects Makhachev to take Volkanovski's back and ride out rounds, winning a clear decision.

decision
"I got to go Islam here and I'm take Islam to win this fight by pretty dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Makhachev, emphasizing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and had surgery, so he won't be at his best. He notes that Makhachev took Volkanovski down four times in their first fight and controlled him for eight minutes, and expects a similar or better performance in Abu Dhabi. Cody also mentions that Makhachev is in his prime and getting better, while Volkanovski just turned 35 and may not have celebrated his birthday properly.

Makhachev by decision, Makhachev over 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I think the short notice takes a little bit away from it with Islam Makhachev he's 31 years old he's in the prime of his life he's still getting better"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing that Islam is more physical, dictates the pace, and has the hometown advantage in Abu Dhabi where a close decision will go to Islam. He notes Volkanovski's elite feinting game and durability but believes Islam's weight cut and fatigue issues from the first fight are mitigated by Volkanovski taking the fight on short notice. He expects a competitive fight but sees Islam winning, possibly by decision, though he doesn't rule out a finish.

Islam minus 255, Volkanovski plus 250; mentions fight likely goes five rounds again
"I do have to pick Islam makev in this fight... I just think that this is Islam time at this weight class right now and I think he's going to get it done."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)
Islam Makhachev

James predicted Makhachev would win by KO, citing that Makhachev had hurt Volkanovski multiple times in their first fight and that Volkanovski's conditioning might not be there on short notice. He noted that Makhachev's ground and pound could come into play if Volkanovski faded. James was very confident, placing a 5-unit bet on Makhachev moneyline and a half-unit bet on the TKO prop. He also mentioned that he switched from betting Volkanovski in the first fight to Makhachev in this rematch due to the damage Makhachev inflicted.

Makhachev by KO/TKO at +450 to +600; under 4.5 rounds
"I said Islam Makhachev is going to knock out Alexander Volkanovski... I cashed on Islam KO, I cashed on Islam money line, and I also cashed on the under four and a half rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is a live underdog despite short notice. He has already fought Makhachev once and knows what to change. He is a freak athlete who can give a solid 25-minute performance. Makhachev is unlikely to finish him, and Volkanovski's cardio and durability should allow him to win a close decision. The line is too wide.

over 4.5 rounds (fight goes the distance)
"I'm going to take volkanovski I'm going to take him once again and hope that he can pull this one out Win It by decision down the stretch"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Islam Makhachev, citing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and recent surgery, which diminishes his preparation. He notes that Makhachev is in full camp, younger, and fighting in Abu Dhabi where the judges may favor him. Paul expects Makhachev to control the fight with takedowns and ground control, similar to their first fight, and sees value in Makhachev by decision at plus money.

Makhachev by decision (+185 to +200), Makhachev over 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I think you go Makhachev and because I have so much faith that Volkanovski truly is that badass I think I chase out Volkanovski by or by Islam Makhachev by decision again try to get some additional value"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev by third-round TKO. He believes Volkanovski will be weaker and smaller than in their first fight because he didn't have a full camp at 155 and is coming off a 145 fight. He thinks Makhachev will be bigger and stronger. He predicts Makhachev will land knees in the clinch, eventually catching Volkanovski with a knee to the face. He also notes that Volkanovski is rushing back from injuries.

Makhachev wins in round 3 by TKO
"I think makev is going to catch vog in the third round"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 57 of 95 60% 95 of 135 4 of 9 44% 0 0 7:37
Alexander Volkanovski 1 70 of 143 48% 164 of 255 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 10 of 16 62% 18 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:04
Alexander Volkanovski 0 11 of 23 47% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Islam Makhachev 0 19 of 32 59% 30 of 44 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:57
Alexander Volkanovski 0 19 of 34 55% 30 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
3 Islam Makhachev 0 16 of 22 72% 20 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Alexander Volkanovski 0 14 of 37 37% 19 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
4 Islam Makhachev 0 4 of 9 44% 19 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:25
Alexander Volkanovski 0 6 of 13 46% 49 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Islam Makhachev 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Alexander Volkanovski 1 20 of 36 55% 52 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 57 of 95 60% 36 of 72 18 of 20 3 of 3 45 of 82 12 of 13 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 70 of 143 48% 37 of 96 21 of 33 12 of 14 58 of 125 6 of 10 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 10 of 16 62% 5 of 11 3 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 11 of 23 47% 4 of 13 5 of 7 2 of 3 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Islam Makhachev 19 of 32 59% 12 of 24 7 of 8 0 of 0 13 of 25 6 of 7 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 19 of 34 55% 8 of 20 7 of 10 4 of 4 18 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Islam Makhachev 16 of 22 72% 10 of 15 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 14 of 37 37% 7 of 26 4 of 8 3 of 3 11 of 32 2 of 4 1 of 1
4 Islam Makhachev 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 6 of 13 46% 4 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Islam Makhachev 8 of 16 50% 6 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 12 4 of 4 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 20 of 36 55% 14 of 27 4 of 7 2 of 2 12 of 25 3 of 4 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev with high confidence, arguing that Volkanovski's size disadvantage and lack of one-punch power or submission threat make him an easy matchup for Islam. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is suspect (Ortega took him down twice) and that Islam's grappling is suffocating. He has a three-unit bet on Islam at -330 and expects the line to close around -500.

Islam safe for parlays
"I have a three unit moneyline bet on Islam at minus 330"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady is confident in Makhachev, citing his size advantage and elite grappling. He thinks Volkanovski's takedown defense won't hold up against a lightweight wrestler like Makhachev. He predicts a submission win in the third round, noting Volkanovski's toughness but believing Makhachev will eventually catch him.

third round submission
"I'm going to take mahachiev to win I'm gonna take him to win by submission and I'll say it happens in the third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Makhachev but thinks the -400 line is too high and sees value in Volkanovski as a hedge. He notes Volkanovski's path to victory is keeping the fight standing and outworking Makhachev in later rounds, as Makhachev is a low-volume striker. He also mentions Volkanovski's durability and ability to escape submissions from Ortega. He suggests building parlays around Makhachev and throwing a small bet on Volkanovski at +300.

suggests hedging with Volkanovski at +300
"I'm picking Islam mankachev but I think the best path here is build parlays maybe around mankachev and then when it gets down to the main event don't be be too proud to just throw a couple bucks on vulcanovski …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev, emphasizing his superior grappling and ability to chain attacks. He notes that Volkanovski's get-up game, while improved, may not work against Makhachev's patient, trap-setting style. Connor highlights that Makhachev's team prepares specific counters to opponents' tendencies, and that Volkanovski's path to victory requires tiring Makhachev, which has never been done. He also mentions that Volkanovski's striking is better, but the wrestling threat neutralizes it.

"I think i'm still going to pick mocka chip here at the end of the day just because like... it's a hard place to start and be like but I also think he's going to lose."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is the pound-for-pound best, undefeated in 22 fights over 10 years. His defensive grappling is elite; no one has held him down. Makhachev's competition is overrated—Volkanovski would beat everyone Makhachev faced. Volkanovski's cardio and striking will take over late as Makhachev tires from unsuccessful grappling. The size difference is a concern but Volkanovski's strength and bulking up mitigate it. At +300, the value is tremendous.

over 2.5 rounds at -175; fight goes all five rounds
"the fact that we're getting the number one pound for pound fighter a fighter who has been undefeated in 22 professional mixed martial arts fights over 10 years that you can get him at plus 300 is absolutely crazy to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Makhachev will take Volkanovski down at will and eventually finish him inside the distance. He notes Volkanovski was taken down twice by Brian Ortega and lucky to escape submissions, and that Makhachev's hands have improved. He sees Volkanovski's only path as a big overhand right, but thinks Makhachev wins 80% of the time via submission or TKO. He bet Makhachev inside the distance at -105 to -110.

Makhachev inside the distance at -105/-110
"I took some uh makachev inside the distance... I got one book it was minus 105 but another book it was minus 110."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Alexander Volkanovski, emphasizing Makhachev's size, strength, and grappling. He believes Makhachev will use clinch knees and head kicks to finish Volkanovski in the third round by TKO. He notes Volkanovski leads with his head, which Makhachev can exploit with knees.

third round TKO
"I'm gonna go with Islam makashev third round TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane also picks Makhachev, agreeing with Connor that the grappling advantage is decisive. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is not elite and that Makhachev's pressure and chain wrestling will likely overwhelm him. Zane points out that Volkanovski's best chance is to make it a striking match, but Makhachev's wrestling threat will stifle that. He also mentions that Makhachev's preparation is meticulous, targeting specific weaknesses.

"All right, we're both gonna pick uh... well, we're both picking makachev. He is the favorite here."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 3:16 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 19 of 39 48% 25 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Charles Oliveira 1 30 of 41 73% 72 of 86 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 11 54% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Charles Oliveira 0 12 of 18 66% 51 of 60 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:48
2 Islam Makhachev 0 13 of 28 46% 15 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Charles Oliveira 1 18 of 23 78% 21 of 26 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 19 of 39 48% 7 of 23 12 of 15 0 of 1 10 of 26 7 of 8 2 of 5
Charles Oliveira 30 of 41 73% 25 of 35 5 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 31 5 of 5 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 11 54% 1 of 5 5 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 4
Charles Oliveira 12 of 18 66% 9 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 10 3 of 3 4 of 5
2 Islam Makhachev 13 of 28 46% 6 of 18 7 of 9 0 of 1 8 of 21 5 of 6 0 of 1
Charles Oliveira 18 of 23 78% 16 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, arguing that Islam's wrestling and control will be the difference. He notes that Charles Oliveira's submission wins mostly come when he gets the takedown, not when he is taken down. He believes Islam can get takedowns, avoid submissions, and control the fight. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but is confident in Islam.

"I like Islam to get the takedowns keep the control avoid the submissions I think islamankachev wins this fight I'm very confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Makhachev to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Makhachev will take Oliveira down easily and eventually get to a dominant position. Oliveira is dangerous off his back but has been finished before (seven finish losses). Makhachev's wrestling and top control should wear Oliveira down, leading to a ground-and-pound stoppage.

third round TKO
"I think Islam finishes some ground and pound TKO in that third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Cody acknowledges Makhachev's relentless grinding and pressure style, but notes Oliveira's elite jiu-jitsu and striking power. He points out that Oliveira has been a live underdog before, with plus money wins in his last two fights. Cody is concerned about Makhachev's ability to hang in Oliveira's guard without getting submitted. He ultimately leans Oliveira because of the value and Oliveira's diverse finishing ability, though he admits it's a conflicted pick.

under in the fight
"ever so slightly I think I'm gonna go with uh my fellow Horseman Charles Oliveira"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor argues that Makhachev must grapple with Oliveira and that he is too dominant and technical on the ground to be swept or submitted. He notes that Oliveira has been outgrappled before by fighters like Paul Felder, Anthony Pettis, and Ricardo Lamas, and that Makhachev's patience and cardio will allow him to slow-cook Oliveira over five rounds. He emphasizes that Makhachev's submission defense and ability to avoid trouble in scrambles make him a safe pick.

"Even if Makhachev does end up in trouble so long as he isn't finished with one shot, we're gonna end up in a grappling sequence where Makhachev is just I think too dominant too technical."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win the lightweight title. He believes Islam's Dagestani wrestling and grappling will allow him to engage with Charles Oliveira on the ground where previous opponents were hesitant. Levi notes that Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights but opponents respected his guard and backed off, whereas Islam will not be intimidated and will follow up. He also mentions that Islam's striking, especially high kicks, is underrated and that he absorbs very few strikes. Levi acknowledges Oliveira's improved confidence and submission threat but thinks Islam's grappling pedigree and ability to neutralize submissions will be the difference. He bet 2 units at -162.

Bet 2 units at -162. Notes that Islam is a discount at these odds compared to his usual -300 to -600 lines. Expects the fight to favor Islam as it goes longer.
"I actually bet islamicachev in the spa and I bet I'm at -162."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's wrestling is the key factor; Oliveira hasn't faced a wrestler of this caliber since Kevin Lee. Makhachev has five-round cardio and can neutralize Oliveira's jiu-jitsu by passing guard and getting to dominant positions. Oliveira's striking advantage won't matter if the fight goes to the ground. Makhachev inside the distance at -105 is the pick, likely finishing in the second or third round.

Makhachev inside the distance at -105; under 2.5 rounds at -160; fight doesn't go to decision as parlay piece
"give me my hot Chef inside the distance minus 105. I love his money line as well where it's at minus 180"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Paul is confident in Oliveira, citing that he grabbed Oliveira at +285 earlier and added more at +175. He questions Makhachev's striking defense, referencing the Adriano Martins knockout, and believes Oliveira's style is problematic for Makhachev. Paul thinks Oliveira can win on the feet or by submission, and doesn't understand the 66% win probability for Makhachev. He sees Oliveira as a very live dog.

bet at +285 and +175
"it's Charles Oliveira pass as far as I'm concerned I don't really understand jumping um at like 66 percent win percentage islamakachev in this situation whatsoever"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Islam Makhachev, despite being the underdog. He notes that BJJ fighters with hands have given Makhachev problems (e.g., Thiago Moises, Davi Ramos). He believes Oliveira's pressure and striking will rock Makhachev, leading to a guillotine submission in round one. He also cites Makhachev's lack of big-fight experience and the pressure of fighting in Abu Dhabi.

guillotine in round one
"I've got Charles Oliveira winning this one dominantly"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees that Makhachev should grapple and believes he will find takedowns against Oliveira, who is willing to engage on the ground. He notes that Makhachev's multi-directional takedown threats and ability to chain attacks will overwhelm Oliveira. He also points out that Oliveira's recent success is partly due to opponents being afraid to follow him to the ground, but Makhachev will not hesitate.

"I think that Makhachev is going to find that if he gets in on takedowns against Charles Oliveira, Charles Oliveira is probably gonna give many of them up."
WIN vs King Green
TKO (punches) R1 3:23 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 14 of 32 43% 30 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
King Green 0 9 of 13 69% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 14 of 32 43% 30 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
King Green 0 9 of 13 69% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 14 of 32 43% 10 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 3 3 of 10 2 of 2 9 of 20
King Green 9 of 13 69% 2 of 5 6 of 6 1 of 2 4 of 8 3 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 14 of 32 43% 10 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 3 3 of 10 2 of 2 9 of 20
King Green 9 of 13 69% 2 of 5 6 of 6 1 of 2 4 of 8 3 of 3 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, believing he will dominate Bobby Green with his wrestling and grappling. He notes that while Green is a better striker, Makhachev has enough striking to avoid getting hurt and will then take the fight to the ground where he can control and finish. Angelo acknowledges that Makhachev hasn't faced top-ranked opponents yet, but he expects him to blow through Green as a heavy favorite. He also mentions a two-unit parlay with Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan at around -180.

Two-unit parlay with Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan at approximately -180
"i think he absolutely dismantles bobby green i think he blows through bobby green islam is absolutely my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by submission. He notes that Makhachev absorbs only 0.79 significant strikes per minute and no opponent has landed more than 13 strikes on him in the UFC. He highlights that Bobby Green has never faced a wrestler or grappler of Makhachev's caliber and has been taken down by lesser fighters. Brady believes Green's path to victory is a knockout, but Green hasn't knocked anyone out since 2013. He respects Green for stepping in on short notice but sees this as a terrible matchup for him.

Makhachev by submission; line is accurate but Brady won't bet at -700
"I got mahachev no hot take um but i think he gets it done and i will not be betting on bobby green like a lot of people seem to be doing but i can tell you i will also …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody is confident in Makhachev's grappling dominance, citing his wins over Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Thiago Moises. He notes that Makhachev's style mirrors Khabib's and that Bobby Green's path to victory is a knockout, which is unlikely given Green's lack of one-punch power. Cody acknowledges the wide odds but still picks Makhachev as a top parlay piece, though he mentions hedging with a small bet on Green by KO at +1100.

Green by KO +1100 (DraftKings), hedge suggestion
"i like islam i like him a lot you know he's just like your boy could be nurmagomedov"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win via submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes that Bobby Green is durable and will stuff early takedowns, but Makhachev's relentless pressure will eventually wear him down. Levi mentions the fight goes the distance is plus 250 but does not think Green can survive five rounds. He emphasizes Makhachev's point to prove and expects a statement finish.

fight goes the distance +250 (does not think it hits)
"i think he does make a statement i think he submits bobby green and i think he gets his title shot"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Jacob picks Islam Makhachev but is hesitant, stating that if Bobby Green had a full camp, he would have been his lock of the week. He believes Green's pressure and volume are the best defense against takedowns, and that Green's unorthodox boxing could trouble Makhachev. Jacob thinks Makhachev might try to stand and prove a point, but ultimately expects him to win via wrestling. He also mentions placing a half-unit bet on Green at +550, showing his uncertainty.

Half-unit bet on Bobby Green at +550
"my pick's gonna be islam i'm not gonna pick bobby green but i'm just saying if there was ever anyone that could beat islam outside that top five it's gonna be bobby green"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev is a heavy favorite at -800, and the host believes he will dominate with his wrestling. He expects Makhachev to repeatedly take Green down and control him on the ground, though he thinks Green's defensive grappling may prevent a finish. The host notes Green's lack of power and predicts Makhachev wins by decision, also suggesting a bet on over 1.5 rounds.

over 1.5 rounds
"i'm gonna go islam hachev and uh in terms of a method of victory since you guys are putting a gun to my head i have a hypothetical gun to my head i'm going to go with this lama chevy …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul agrees that Makhachev is the clear winner but is tempted to sprinkle on Bobby Green at +600 due to the wide line. He notes Green's volume and pace could make it competitive if he avoids takedowns, but ultimately sees Makhachev's grappling as too much. Paul mentions the line has moved from -700 to -900, making it less appealing for a straight bet.

sprinkle on Bobby Green +600, Green by KO +1100
"i'm kind of tempted cody to wait and see how how wide this line gets and then maybe just sprinkle on bobby green a little bit"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win by third-round rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Bobby Green's counter-grappling and durability but believes Makhachev's size, physicality, and superior grappling will be too much. He notes that Green's output drops significantly when facing wrestlers, as seen against Thiago Moises and Francisco Trinaldo. The Guru also highlights that the catchweight of 160 lbs benefits Makhachev by easing his weight cut, potentially improving his chin and conditioning. He expects Makhachev to wear Green down against the cage, take his back in a scramble, and secure the choke in the third round.

third round rear-naked choke submission; odds are -800 (implied from 'eight to one favorite'); Makhachev by submission in round 3
"i'm going to go the third round very naked choke for islam makashev over bobby green"
WIN vs Dan Hooker
Submission (kimura) R1 2:25 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 2 of 3 66% 13 of 14 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:48
Dan Hooker 0 4 of 13 30% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 2 of 3 66% 13 of 14 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:48
Dan Hooker 0 4 of 13 30% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He believes Makhachev's wrestling will be relentless and he will control Hooker on the ground. Hooker has good takedown defense on paper but hasn't faced a wrestler of Makhachev's caliber. Hooker has never been submitted, so a decision is likely. He respects Hooker for stepping in but thinks it's a tough matchup.

Makhachev by decision
"I'll say uh makachev does uh get it done by a pretty convincing dominant decision here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Islam by decision, citing Hooker's durability and chin. He notes Hooker has only been knocked out twice (by Barboza body kick and Chandler) and has good submission defense. He thinks Islam's grappling will control the fight but Hooker will survive to a decision.

Islam by decision
"i agree with democracy call uh i go back to hooker's nep he's only been knocked out one time"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev, citing his dominant wrestling and submission skills, including making Tiago Moises tap. He notes Hooker's durability and striking but believes Islam's grappling will be the difference. Daniel is curious to see if Islam tests his striking but expects a dominant performance. He mentions the line is too high to bet.

comments on line being too high to bet
"i mean look if it's a pick um fight you got to go with islam but i ain't laying no minus 700"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's wrestling and pressure will be overwhelming for Hooker, who took the fight on short notice. Hooker's only chance is a KO, but Makhachev's striking has improved and he will likely take Hooker down repeatedly. Makhachev wins a decision or possibly a late finish.

Makhachev by decision -105, Hooker inside distance +675, Hooker by KO +850.
"I'm going to go with islam and i'm going to take him to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Islam Makhachev by decision, noting Hooker's durability and that Hooker has never been submitted. He thinks Islam's suffocating top control and methodical approach will lead to a decision win. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds is -160 and he likes that as well.

Over 2.5 rounds (-160), Islam by decision
"maka jeff by decision is my official pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Dan Hooker. He thinks Makhachev's grappling is superior and that Hooker's camp is not ideal. He predicts Hooker may win the first round with his length and clinch work, but Makhachev will take over in rounds two and three with takedowns and positional dominance. He expects a 29-28 unanimous decision for Makhachev, possibly a boring fight. He also notes that even with a perfect camp, Hooker would likely lose.

"i'm going with islam makashev here"
Drew Dober - Fight History
KO R2 1:53 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Drew Dober 1 22 of 55 40% 22 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 27 of 76 35% 27 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Drew Dober 0 11 of 29 37% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Drew Dober 1 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Drew Dober 22 of 55 40% 9 of 33 7 of 14 6 of 8 21 of 54 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 27 of 76 35% 18 of 55 0 of 11 9 of 10 27 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Drew Dober 11 of 29 37% 2 of 14 5 of 9 4 of 6 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 18 of 51 35% 9 of 31 0 of 11 9 of 9 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Drew Dober 11 of 26 42% 7 of 19 2 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 9 of 25 36% 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady picks Drew Dober as a slight underdog over Michael Johnson, but with very low confidence. He notes Johnson is inconsistent and his recent wins are against weak competition, while Dober's chin may be fading after brutal KO losses. However, Brady thinks Dober hits harder and could catch Johnson, predicting a second-round KO. He acknowledges the fight is a toss-up and trusts neither fighter.

Dober by second round knockout
"Give me give me Dober as a dog with very little confidence, but I'll take Dober to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Cody picks Johnson, citing his better speed, boxing, and reach advantage. He notes Dober's recent knockout losses and regression, while Johnson is on a three-fight win streak. He expects Johnson to win by knockout or decision.

"Ang Michael Johnson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Connor picks Johnson, citing Dober's clear decline in recent fights, especially the Kyle Propolek fight where Dober looked slow and unfocused. He notes that Johnson has maintained a consistent level and still has sharp counterpunching and good first-level takedown defense. Connor believes Dober's durability has faded and his pressure style leaves him open to counters, which Johnson can exploit.

Odds: Johnson opened at -185, now -122; Dober opened at +160, now +102.
"I think I have to take Michael Johnson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Drew Dober as an underdog, expecting an early scare followed by a late knockout. He notes that Michael Johnson's speed fades with age, and Dober's durability and power can turn the tide. Vreeland compares it to Dober's fight against Bobby Green, where he took punishment early and finished later.

"I'm going to go Drew Dober to come out here and get this upset after an early scare."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

James picks Michael Johnson because he is faster and hits just as hard as Dober, and he expects Johnson to land first. He notes Dober's declining durability and hittability, making him vulnerable to a knockout. James predicts a KO finish, likely by Johnson, and suggests betting on the fight ending via KO.

Fight ends via KO
"I am picking Michael Johnson to win the fight. The reason I'm picking him to win the fight is because he's faster than Drew Dober and hits probably just as hard."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Johnson is the better technical striker with cleaner counters. Dober is explosive but vulnerable to counters. Johnson's speed and power should allow him to land a big shot and put Dober away. Johnson by knockout.

Johnson by knockout
"I have to lean with Johnson and I think you have to make him the slight favorite because of the technical advantages that he has in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Johnson due to his power, volume, and footwork. He mentions Dober's durability issues and Johnson's ability to fight to his opponent's level. He expects Johnson to either knock Dober out or win a decision.

"Johnson either detonates one upside that chin or just puts in the better of volume over the course of two of those three rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober, believing he will walk through Johnson's shots and land a KO. He compares it to the Bobby Green fight and predicts a second-round TKO. He mentions Dober's whiteboard and obsession with finishing Johnson.

KO in round two
"Drew Dober is gonna knock out Michael Johnson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Zane also picks Johnson, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He emphasizes that Dober's recent performances show a fighter who is no longer present in the moment, similar to Tony Ferguson's decline. Zane notes that Johnson's speed and counterpunching are still dangerous, and Dober's tendency to lead with his face makes him vulnerable. He sees Johnson as the more reliable fighter at this stage.

Odds: Johnson -122, Dober +102.
"Me too. Unless Drew Dover hits his legendary lap drop."
WIN vs Kyle Prepolec
KO R3 1:16 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyle Prepolec 0 51 of 164 31% 51 of 164 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
Drew Dober 0 83 of 161 51% 85 of 163 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyle Prepolec 0 17 of 66 25% 17 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Drew Dober 0 28 of 58 48% 28 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kyle Prepolec 0 27 of 80 33% 27 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Drew Dober 0 35 of 58 60% 36 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Kyle Prepolec 0 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Drew Dober 0 20 of 45 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyle Prepolec 51 of 164 31% 36 of 139 7 of 13 8 of 12 51 of 164 0 of 0 0 of 0
Drew Dober 83 of 161 51% 46 of 117 18 of 22 19 of 22 77 of 153 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyle Prepolec 17 of 66 25% 11 of 53 3 of 7 3 of 6 17 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Drew Dober 28 of 58 48% 12 of 40 5 of 7 11 of 11 28 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kyle Prepolec 27 of 80 33% 20 of 70 3 of 5 4 of 5 27 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Drew Dober 35 of 58 60% 18 of 36 11 of 13 6 of 9 35 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kyle Prepolec 7 of 18 38% 5 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Drew Dober 20 of 45 44% 16 of 41 2 of 2 2 of 2 14 of 37 6 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Drew Dober vs. Kyle Prepolec
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dober (-500); Prepolec (+375)

Round 1
Chins will be tested when this lightweight matchup is all said and done. Dober (27-15, 1 NC; 13-11, 1 NC UFC) may be one of the quietest recordholders in the promotion, as he and Dustin Poirier remain tied for the most knockouts (nine) in the history of the division. He gains a fortuitous matchup in Canada’s Prepolec (18-9, 0-3 UFC), who with a win tonight would earn his first in the Octagon after four efforts. The two will be joined by referee John Cooper, who will keep things on the up-and-up as the fighters choose not to touch gloves.
Prepolec offers an early low kick, and he leans back out of range from a check right hook. Both men land at the end of punches, and Dober scores a low kick behind it. Dober turns his hips behind another hefty leg kick, and he fires one more off and cracks Prepolec with a left hand. Prepolec boots Dober in the face with his shin, and Dober completely ignores it and pops him with a one-two. Dober has his guard up to defend against a high kick the next time, and he swats away all but a body shot from the Canadian. Dober lunges in with a flurry of punches, his left hook finding the target. Dober goes low with a kick and high upstairs with a right hand. A Dober left misses by a hair, and Prepolec’s counters fall short as well. Dober pounds the front leg and puts fists on face immediately thereafter, with Prepolec left playing second fiddle with little more than an overhand left.
Dober scores with his left and chops the front leg with a kick, and he aims a body shot but is kicked back by the Canadian. Dober reaches with his big left, and his body kick plants on the torso. Dober kicks the thigh, and the leg brushes up against the cup. Prepolec waves Cooper off and they keep going. Dober’s kicks have started to have an impact on Prepolec’s front wheel, as Prepolec is ginger on it and open to big left hands. Dober catches him at the end of his left, and he flashes out a few jabs to set up a body shot. Dober backs his man off only to walk into a combination, and Prepolec grins. Even when Prepolec blocks a head kick, the impact of it bangs into his head. Dober whiffs on a wheel kick, clearly feeling himself in the Octagon. Prepolec doubles up jabs to mark up Dober’s nose, and he slips a punch and scores a straight left. Both men toss out head kicks, and Prepolec goes to the body. Prepolec’s jabs further bloody Dober’s nose, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dober
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dober
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dober

Round 2
The lightweights bump fists this round, and Dober says hello with a low kick that transitions into a wheel kick. Prepolec tries to defend a low kick by raising his knee, but that only opens Dober up to throw a body shot. Prepolec strings together his own counters, and Dober takes them on the chin and swings back with bad intentions. Prepolec gets back behind his jab and two, and the nose of Dober begins to leak again. Prepolec checks a kick with an audible thud to it and splits Dober’s shin wide open, and he punches Dober in the face with both fists—one after the other, not at once. Dober shrugs it off and tries to brawl, only for Prepolec to answer him with two upstairs and a head kick. Dober rips the body and jams a kick on the lead leg, and Prepolec is ginger on it after taking damage. Dober kicks it on the inside and swipes out with a pair of hooks, and his left hand is catching the Canadian but not seeming to slow him. Dober gets off the wheel kick he was seeking, banging it into Prepolec’s raised guard. Dober slips a punch and counters with a big left hand up top.
Dober leaps forward behind a Superman punch, and Prepolec’s chin holds up well as he tanks it and hurls back. Dober goes to the body, and Prepolec returns fire with a few punches and a head kick that Dober rolls. Prepolec checks another kick, and Dober stumbles back from it. Prepolec slaps his foe’s inside thigh, and Dober blasts him with a left hand. Prepolec tries to spin through it with a back fist, but it is out of range. Prepolec snaps Dober’s head back with a right hand, and Dober belts him in the belly with his non-damaged shin. Dober opens up with power punches, and Prepolec stands in the pocket and bangs with him, even shaking Dober up with a left hand. Dober suddenly shoots in for a single-leg takedown, and Prepolec sits him up and staves it off. Both men stand up, and Dober bounces a left hand off the temple and releases his opponent’s leg. Prepolec chains a left hand into a head kick, and Dober is wearing it at this point but has hit Prepolec with everything and the kitchen sink. Prepolec splits the guard with an uppercut, and he knocks Dober to his knees with a ferocious left hand. Right before Prepolec is about to annihilate Dober with what would be an illegal soccer kick with Dober’s knee down, the round ends and Cooper is between them.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prepolec
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Prepolec
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Prepolec

Round 3
When the last round begins, Dober shouts, “Let’s do it!” They nod to one another, touch gloves, and swing for the fences. Prepolec boots Dober in the face with his foot, and Dober races after him with flailing punches. Dober unleashes a low kick with everything behind it, and it crashes directly into Prepolec’s cup. Prepolec collapses to the floor, and Cooper goes to the Canadian and practically begs him to take as much time as he needs instead of hurrying back. The partisan crowd starts a booming, profane chant of “F--- Drew Dober,” as Prepolec is in agony on his knees. Two minutes into the five-minute window, and Prepolec stands back up, albeit hunched over. Cooper keeps Prepolec informed of how much time he has left, and Prepolec responds that he is starting to feel better. Due to the severity of the foul, Cooper elects to deduct one point from Dober—this is the right call given the fight-changing nature of the illegal kick. Prepolec asks for them to restart the fight, and after 4:10 of recovery time, he is good to go.
Dober rushes after the Canadian and starts swinging for the bleachers. Practically sprinting at his opponent, Dober hurls punches in bunches and knocks Prepolec’s head around the cage. Prepolec leans over and takes a brutal knee to the chest that further makes him double over. Prepolec skirts away, and Dober rushes after him with one goal in mind: smash the Canadian’s face. Dober takes the counters that Prepolec offers, including a head kick or two, because he is a man possessed.
Backing Prepolec up against the cage, Dober blasts his man with a knee, an elbow and one final surge of punches. With Prepolec leaned over in bad shape, Cooper saves him from further punishment, and the fans are not having it.
Dober apologizes to the Vancouver masses for sending their fighter out like that, and they appear to accept his apology and stop raining down boos. While claps are sporadic, a few in the building realize the significance of Dober now the solo recordholder for the most knockouts in UFC lightweight history with 10.

The Official Result
Drew Dober def. Kyle Prepolec R3 1:16 via TKO (Elbow and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Drew Dober

Angelo picks Drew Dober to win, citing his technical striking and ability to grapple if needed. He notes Dober's recent chin issues but believes Kyle Prepolec is not a UFC-caliber fighter and lacks power. He expects Dober to find a finish, making him a good fantasy play at $9,400.

Dober wins by finish likely
"I think Drew Dober wins this fight. He's the better fighter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady is concerned about Drew Dober's age, fight mileage, and recent chin issues, but believes the skill gap is massive in Dober's favor. He notes Prepolec has never been knocked out and is likely more durable at this stage. He picks Dober by decision, staying away from the -550 price.

"I'm going to take Drew Dober to win this fight by decision just being the more skillful fighter."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Prepolec

Cody picks Prepolec, citing value. He notes Dober's chin is declining and he has been knocked out recently. Prepolec has never been knocked out and has a full camp. Cody believes Prepolec can catch Dober and win by knockout, but admits it's a value play.

"Kyle Prebbleick is the PRP pick. Let's go."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Drew Dober

Connor picks Drew Dober but is hesitant, acknowledging that Dober seems to have lost his confidence and timing after the Manuel Torres loss. He notes that Prepolec is a tough slugger who has never been knocked out, and that Dober's usual brawling approach may not work anymore. However, Connor still expects Dober to win because Prepolec is a step down in competition.

Dober opened -300, now -450; Prepolec opened +250, now +350.
"I'm still gonna pick drew... The end is nigh I'm gonna take the wild flyer on preplek for the hell of it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Drew Dober

James picks Dober to win but notes value on Prepolec as an underdog. He questions Dober's recent chin issues after knockouts by Jean Silva and Matt Frevola, while Prepolec has never been knocked out. James expects a striking battle where Prepolec could land a head kick, but ultimately favors Dober's speed and experience.

"My prediction is Drew Dober, but I'm saying that the value is on Kyle Preple in my opinion because like I said, it really comes down to this and I'm going to say it for the third time, boys, just …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Drew Dober

The host is not a big fan of Dober at the super chalky line given his recent form and Prepolec being a striker himself. However, he still thinks Dober is the better all-around fighter and should mix striking and grappling to win on the scorecards, provided his durability holds up.

not a fan of the line
"I'm not a big fan of Dober at this super chalky line considering his recent form and Prepik obviously being a striker himself."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Prepolec

Paul leans Prepolec, agreeing with Cody on value. He notes Dober's durability is a question and Prepolec has power. Paul says he'll have a small bet on Prepolec but has low conviction.

"Dogger pass. I'll have a little bit on Prepik. I don't feel too much conviction there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Kyle Prepolec. He acknowledges Dober's recent KO loss to Manuel Torres but attributes that to Torres being a genetic freak with nasty power. He believes Dober still has it and will beat Prepolec easily, noting Prepolec shouldn't be in the UFC. He predicts a TKO in the second round.

TKO in the second round
"I'm going to go with Drew Dober to get this one done by TKO in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Prepolec

Zane picks Kyle Prepolec as a wild flyer, citing Dober's recent struggles and loss of confidence. He notes that Prepolec is a tough slugger who has never been knocked out, and that Dober's path to victory is to slug it out, which may no longer work. Zane is not confident but sees value in the underdog.

"I'm gonna take the wild flyer on preplek for the hell of it."
LOSS vs Manuel Torres
KO R1 1:45 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manuel Torres 1 23 of 25 92% 23 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Drew Dober 0 3 of 9 33% 3 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manuel Torres 1 23 of 25 92% 23 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Drew Dober 0 3 of 9 33% 3 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manuel Torres 23 of 25 92% 21 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 9 0 of 0 16 of 16
Drew Dober 3 of 9 33% 2 of 5 0 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manuel Torres 23 of 25 92% 21 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 9 0 of 0 16 of 16
Drew Dober 3 of 9 33% 2 of 5 0 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

James picks Drew Dober to win, arguing that Torres has never won outside round one except for a split decision where he gassed, and that elevation will worsen his cardio. He highlights Dober's elite chin, cardio, and forward pressure, noting Dober's last fight against Jean Silva showed his durability. James believes Dober will survive Torres' early onslaught and then dominate in rounds two and three, likely finishing Torres. He also mentions a potential submission angle for Torres but favors Dober's path to victory.

Prediction: Drew Dober via knockout (round 1 or 2). Mentions Torres submission at plus 1000 as a possible angle.
"I like Drew Dober here I'm picking Drew DOA I think he's shown one of the best chin performances of his entire career in his last fight."
LOSS vs Jean Silva
TKO (doctor stoppage) R3 1:28 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jean Silva 0 59 of 147 40% 59 of 148 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:30
Drew Dober 0 53 of 109 48% 53 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jean Silva 0 20 of 58 34% 20 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Drew Dober 0 16 of 42 38% 16 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jean Silva 0 30 of 70 42% 30 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Drew Dober 0 31 of 55 56% 31 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jean Silva 0 9 of 19 47% 9 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
Drew Dober 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jean Silva 59 of 147 40% 29 of 109 21 of 28 9 of 10 55 of 138 4 of 9 0 of 0
Drew Dober 53 of 109 48% 37 of 89 15 of 19 1 of 1 48 of 101 5 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jean Silva 20 of 58 34% 7 of 41 8 of 12 5 of 5 20 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Drew Dober 16 of 42 38% 10 of 34 6 of 8 0 of 0 15 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jean Silva 30 of 70 42% 17 of 53 10 of 13 3 of 4 26 of 61 4 of 9 0 of 0
Drew Dober 31 of 55 56% 23 of 45 7 of 9 1 of 1 29 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1
3 Jean Silva 9 of 19 47% 5 of 15 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Drew Dober 6 of 12 50% 4 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Angelo picks Jean Silva, having bet on him at +105. He believes Silva is the better striker and would win with a full camp, but cautions about the quick turnaround (fighting two weeks after UFC 303) and moving up in weight. He notes that Silva opened as an underdog but has become the favorite, and advises that betting at plus money was good but at current minus odds may not be worth it. He acknowledges Drew Dober's durability and chin.

Bet on Silva at +105; cautions about betting at current minus odds.
"I bet on John Silva I got him at plus 105 and I do think he wins this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Cody picks Jean Silva, impressed by his power and durability shown against Charles Jourdain. He believes Dober's chin is declining and that Silva's pressure and power will be too much. He notes Silva's camp at Fighting Nerds and his ability to generate power from any position.

"I will take Jean Silva."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Daniel Vreeland picks Drew Dober over Jean Silva. He cites Dober's experience, power, and size advantage as a true lightweight, while Silva is moving up from featherweight. He notes Dober's status as a lightweight KO king and that he lives in Colorado, giving him an altitude advantage. He acknowledges Silva's impressive performances but thinks the quick turnaround and elevation may affect him. He leans with the veteran Dober.

"I'm gonna go with Drew Dober to get this one done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Drew Dober

Drew Dober is the more technical striker. If he can stay competitive early, Jean Silva will slow down due to altitude and whiffing. Dober's solid striking defense will allow him to turn up the pace and potentially put Silva away in the second or third round.

"I think if Dober can stay competitive early we'll see Jean Silva start to slow down having to deal with the altitude and whiffing at air"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Paul picks Jean Silva, citing his power and the fact that Dober's chin may be fading. He notes Silva's performance against Jourdain and believes Silva's pressure will overwhelm Dober. He expects an entertaining fight with a finish.

"I'm going to go with John Silva to keep the vibes going here."
LOSS vs Renato Moicano
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Renato Moicano 0 23 of 42 54% 142 of 177 3 of 6 50% 0 0 10:33
Drew Dober 0 23 of 59 38% 36 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Renato Moicano 0 6 of 12 50% 43 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:48
Drew Dober 0 6 of 20 30% 7 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Renato Moicano 0 2 of 5 40% 34 of 42 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:19
Drew Dober 0 6 of 13 46% 17 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:01
3 Renato Moicano 0 15 of 25 60% 65 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:26
Drew Dober 0 11 of 26 42% 12 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Renato Moicano 23 of 42 54% 20 of 39 2 of 2 1 of 1 10 of 27 1 of 2 12 of 13
Drew Dober 23 of 59 38% 17 of 50 4 of 7 2 of 2 19 of 52 1 of 1 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Renato Moicano 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 2
Drew Dober 6 of 20 30% 5 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Renato Moicano 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 1
Drew Dober 6 of 13 46% 5 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 1 of 1 3 of 6
3 Renato Moicano 15 of 25 60% 14 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 15 0 of 0 9 of 10
Drew Dober 11 of 26 42% 7 of 21 2 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Angelo picks Drew Dober, trusting his chin and brawling ability. He notes that Moicano is chinny and hasn't fought in a year. He believes Dober can bait Moicano into a firefight and knock him out. He has a half-unit bet on Dober at +125.

Half-unit bet at +125
"Drew Dober is going to be the pick I do have a half a unit bet on him at plus 125"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Big Brady picks Renato Moicano to win by first-round submission. He notes that Moicano has a huge advantage on the ground, and Dober has been submitted multiple times. However, Moicano sometimes falls in love with striking, which would be dangerous against Dober's power. Brady thinks Moicano will take Dober down and submit him, but acknowledges it's a 50-50 fight.

first round, submission
"give me my Conor to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Cody picks Moicano, citing Dober's declining durability and Moicano's superior grappling and angles. He notes Dober's chin is fading after the Fialho knockout, and Moicano can set up takedowns with his jab. He sees Moicano by submission as a strong prop.

Moicano by submission +200
"moano by submission plus 200 was a good look"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Moicano has a tremendous BJJ black belt and should be able to drag Dober to the ground and sink in a rear naked choke. However, the host is hesitant due to Moicano's long layoff and knee surgery at 34 years old. Dober has power and good cardio, but is at a skill disadvantage on the ground. The host expects the fight not to go to decision, with Moicano winning by submission.

Fight doesn't go to decision is mentioned as a chalky play.
"I think it's going to be moano who ends up sinking in the choke and getting that rear naked choke Victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Moicano. He highlights Dober's reckless pressure and suspect takedown defense, while Moicano's jab and movement should set up takedowns. He notes Moicano's losses are to elite fighters, and Dober has never been at that level.

"I think it's kind of against him here minus one 5 is not a terrible price tag on hanato Mako"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Renato Moicano, predicting a TKO. He cites Moicano's long layoff since November 2022 due to a leg injury, and doubts he will look his best. He believes Dober has more power on the feet and has impressive wins over Terrance McKinney, Rafael Alves, and Bobby Green. He thinks Moicano will struggle to take Dober down and that Dober will catch him with his hands down, Korean Zombie style.

TKO
"I am going to go with Drew Dober here... I am going to go with Drew Dober getting this one done by TKO at some point."
WIN vs Ricky Glenn
TKO (punches) R1 2:36 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Drew Dober 1 30 of 53 56% 30 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Ricky Glenn 0 5 of 22 22% 5 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Drew Dober 1 30 of 53 56% 30 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Ricky Glenn 0 5 of 22 22% 5 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Drew Dober 30 of 53 56% 19 of 40 7 of 9 4 of 4 20 of 38 2 of 3 8 of 12
Ricky Glenn 5 of 22 22% 2 of 15 3 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Drew Dober 30 of 53 56% 19 of 40 7 of 9 4 of 4 20 of 38 2 of 3 8 of 12
Ricky Glenn 5 of 22 22% 2 of 15 3 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Angelo picks Drew Dober confidently, citing his technical kickboxing, power, and willingness to brawl. He notes that Ricky Glenn struggles when opponents bring a brawl. However, he expresses concern about Dober's chin after his knockout loss to Matt Frevola, wondering if it's the beginning of the end. He has Dober in a parlay with Kanako Murata, calling it risky.

Parlay with Kanako Murata
"I'm still squarely in the Drew Dober Camp here obviously some concerns about where the chin is or is not"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady is very confident in Drew Dober, calling the matchup questionable and noting Ricky Glenn's poor performance in his last fight. He believes Glenn looks washed and has had long layoffs due to injuries. He expects Dober's power to be too much, predicting a first-round knockout despite Glenn only being knocked out once in his career.

first round knockout for Drew Dober
"I'm gonna take Drew Dober to win this fight I'm gonna take him to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Cody picks Dober but is hesitant, noting that Dober's chin may be compromised after his knockout loss to Matt Frevola. He acknowledges Glenn's sneaky power and low activity, but believes Dober's experience and power give him the edge. He does not like the line and sees better value elsewhere.

Under 2.5 rounds, Fight time under 9.75 minutes
"I don't like the line I don't like the value... but I gotta pick the rifle winner"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Daniel Levi picks Drew Dober, noting that Dober has always been a step ahead of Ricky Glenn in competition. He highlights Dober's power and his record for most KOs in the lightweight division, but also acknowledges Glenn's durability (only one KO loss in over 30 fights). He thinks Dober should get back on track but doesn't guarantee a KO.

"I think Dober should get back on track here I think that the odds indicate that"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Drew Dober

Lucrative James predicts Dober wins by knockout in round two or three. He thinks the line is wide but Dober should get the finish. He notes Dober has good takedown defense but struggles to get back up if taken down. He believes Glenn is slowing down and Dober will eventually crack his chin.

"I'm predicting out round two round three sweet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Drew Dober

Dober has power and speed advantages, and Glenn has durability concerns after a long layoff and surgeries. However, Dober is unreliable as a heavy favorite and Glenn can also knock him out. The fight likely ends inside the distance, with Dober getting a KO, but the odds are too high to trust. I predict Dober by KO but won't bet the moneyline.

fight doesn't go to decision
"give me Drew Dober by KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ricky Glenn

Paul picks Ricky Glenn as a value play, citing Dober's recent knockout loss and Glenn's volatility. He notes that Glenn has sneaky power and could catch Dober. However, he is not highly confident, calling it a high-volatility fight. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop as a safer bet.

Under 2.5 rounds, Ricky Glenn by knockout (YOLO play)
"I'll pick them for the purposes of this show because I just can't get to minus 420... it's just a high volatility fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Ricky Glenn, predicting a TKO. He jokes about Dober's racially motivated power but seriously notes Glenn looked like an 'old age pensioner' in his last fight against Christos Giagos, slow and predictable. He believes Dober has decent takedown defense and will land body shots, finishing Glenn in the late first round. He also mentions Glenn stands upright, making him vulnerable.

late first round KO
"I'm gonna go Drew Dober over Ricky Glenn too old too robotic too rusty"
LOSS vs Matt Frevola
TKO (punches) R1 4:08 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Frevola 0 20 of 59 33% 20 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Drew Dober 1 35 of 75 46% 39 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Frevola 0 20 of 59 33% 20 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Drew Dober 1 35 of 75 46% 39 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Frevola 20 of 59 33% 12 of 50 8 of 9 0 of 0 19 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Drew Dober 35 of 75 46% 26 of 61 6 of 11 3 of 3 22 of 58 1 of 2 12 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Frevola 20 of 59 33% 12 of 50 8 of 9 0 of 0 19 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Drew Dober 35 of 75 46% 26 of 61 6 of 11 3 of 3 22 of 58 1 of 2 12 of 15
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Drew Dober vs. Matt Frevola
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dober (-205), Frevola (+175)

Round 1
What many are coining the must-watch battle of the evening takes place in the ESPN prelim headliner, when hard-chinned brawler Dober (26-11, 1 NC; 12-7, 1 NC UFC) throws down with aggressive action fighter Frevola (10-3-1, 4-3-1 UFC). Ahead of what hopes to be a lightweight thriller, the two men bump fists. Referee Herb Dean stands at the ready. Frevola engages with a jab and a body kick, and the latter lands flush. Dober counters with a left hand, and he gets tagged with a right hand over the top. Frevola comes at his foe with a superman punch and a head kick, and he scores a right hand that gives Dober pause. They crash together and bump heads together, and Dober gets a left hand to find the chin. Frevola flails back with powerful punches, and he changes levels and bails on it to knee the body. Dober swats away a kick to his ribs, and he gives Frevola a shove. Frevola slides a punch but cannot dodge the subsequent body shot. A few punches from Frevola bust open Dober’s nose, and he fights his way of the fence. Dober keeps walking him down, slipping a pair of hooks and walking him down. Dober thumps a left to the body, and Frevola loads up with everything he has to fire back. Dober sticks a straight right down the pipe that reddens Frevola’s nose, and he is backing Frevola off but not slowing his offense. Frevola sings a few right hands, and they crash together swinging fists. Both split apart, no worse for wear, and Frevola boots him upside the head with his shin. Dober practically ignores it to retaliate with a one-two, and a left to the body. Frevola connects with another Superman punch, and Dober wobbles but continues marching forward. Dober looses head kicks, and one slides under the arm to the upper ribs.
Frevola sits down on a right hand that pounds square into Dober's perfect jawline, and Dober collapses to his seat. Sensing he might be able to pull off the finish and upset, Frevola leaps on top and hammers Dober with a lengthy barrage of unanswered blows. Frevola beats down on Dober with a long stream of punches, and Dober’s eyes roll back briefly before he gets knocked back into his senses.
As Frevola keeps swinging to finish the job, Dean steps in to wave the fight off, and Dober immediately protests. Dober tries to get back to his feet to show he can still fight and that Dean made a mistake, but he is wobbling on his feet and barely upright. Blood streams from Dober’s face, and the fight is officially over. Frevola goes over to make sure there is no bad blood, and tensions cool down.

The Official Result
Matt Frevola def. Drew Dober R1 4:08 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Angelo picks Matt Frevola, citing his recent knockout power and wrestling ability. He thinks Drew Dober's chin may finally be wearing out from accumulated damage, and that Frevola is smart enough to mix in takedowns rather than brawl. Angelo notes Frevola's confidence from back-to-back KO wins and believes he can land, shoot, and grind to victory. He has a quarter unit on Frevola at +185, calling it great odds for a guy with power and wrestling.

quarter unit at +185
"I have a quarter of a unit on Matt frivola at plus 185"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady picks Dober, expecting a stand-up war. He notes Frevola has power but tends to brawl, and Dober has one of the best chins in the UFC. He believes if Frevola stands and trades, Dober will knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Frevola has been knocked out before and Dober's durability is elite.

First round knockout prediction
"I'm going with Drew Dober here I'm going with Drew Dober by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Cody emphasizes Dober's incredible chin and power, noting that Frevola has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He points out that Dober survived a knockdown from Terence McKinney and came back to win, while McKinney knocked out Frevola in 7 seconds. He expects Dober to land big shots and knock Frevola out, possibly under 1.5 rounds.

Under 1.5 rounds; Dober by KO
"I would say over by knockout I'm feeling the under one and a half"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dober's pressure and ability to come back from being hurt make him the pick. He notes Frevola has been knocked out too many times and that Dober's losses come only to elite wrestlers. Connor sees Frevola's path as unlikely.

Dober opened at -210, Frevola at +175; odds reflect Dober as favorite.
"Yeah, I gotta take Drew Dober here. He's been knocked out too many times for me to just be like, yeah, this is a bonafide strategy."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The host picks Drew Dober, believing his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land cleanly on Matt Frevola. He notes Dober's defensive grappling should nullify Frevola's takedowns. He expects a knockout and recommends the fight doesn't go to decision as the best bet.

Fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm gonna go the Drew Dober side but my favorite spot in this fight will end up being the fight doesn't go to decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Paul agrees, calling Dober's chin one of the best in the game. He notes Frevola's path is to grapple early, but at range Dober has a clear advantage. He predicts Dober knocks him out, as Frevola has struggled against power punchers.

"I think Drew Dober knocks him out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The Guru picks Dober, calling Frevola a scrappier, worse version of Dober. He notes Dober's chin and ability to survive storms, while Frevola has been finished by lesser fighters. He expects a stand-up fight with Dober finishing Frevola in the first round via being more technical and tough in the pocket.

first round finish
"I'm going with Drew Dober over Matt frivola ... I think Trudeau is going to finish him on the feet at some point in the first round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Zane picks Drew Dober because Dober is more reliable in a brawl, with excellent pocket composure and body work. He notes Frevola may have a wrestling out but is likely to get drawn into a war. Dober's defensive wrestling is solid but not ironclad, but Frevola's tendency to brawl and get knocked out makes Dober the clear pick.

Dober opened at -210, Frevola at +175; odds suggest Dober is a solid favorite in a wild fight.
"So you have to pick Drew. He's going to get a Drew Dober fight and he's just more reliable in that kind of matchup."
WIN vs King Green
KO (punch) R2 2:45 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Drew Dober 1 34 of 121 28% 34 of 121 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
King Green 0 73 of 142 51% 75 of 145 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Drew Dober 0 17 of 71 23% 17 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
King Green 0 39 of 87 44% 40 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
2 Drew Dober 1 17 of 50 34% 17 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
King Green 0 34 of 55 61% 35 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Drew Dober 34 of 121 28% 16 of 86 9 of 21 9 of 14 33 of 119 0 of 1 1 of 1
King Green 73 of 142 51% 50 of 113 17 of 22 6 of 7 72 of 141 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Drew Dober 17 of 71 23% 5 of 50 7 of 13 5 of 8 17 of 70 0 of 1 0 of 0
King Green 39 of 87 44% 27 of 71 7 of 10 5 of 6 38 of 86 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Drew Dober 17 of 50 34% 11 of 36 2 of 8 4 of 6 16 of 49 0 of 0 1 of 1
King Green 34 of 55 61% 23 of 42 10 of 12 1 of 1 34 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Angelo picks Drew Dober hesitantly, acknowledging that this is a very tough fight to call. He notes Dober has a great chin and power, while Bobby Green is more technically sound with higher volume and better defense. He worries that Dober might get touched up like in the Nazrat fight. He plans to stay away from betting on this fight due to low confidence.

Will not bet on this fight; staying away
"I'm going with Drew Dover here because I think he's the more dangerous guy but this could look a lot like Bobby vs nazrat where Drew dober's just getting touched up"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Big Brady picks Bobby Green as an underdog, citing his recent impressive performances and high volume. He worries about Green's fight IQ and the judges, but thinks Green will outland Dober. He notes Dober will land the harder shots but Green's volume should win rounds. He also mentions Green could wrestle but likely won't. He predicts a close decision win for Green.

Green wins by decision
"I will take Bobby green for the upset I'll take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Cody picks Dober, believing his power and durability will sway judges. He notes Dober sits down on his punches and has good leg kicks. He thinks Green's flat-footed boxing style and head-shaking may not impress judges. He expects a close decision win for Dober and considers Dober by decision.

Dober by decision
"I'm gonna go with Drew Dober... I think Drew dope is going to get his hand raised so I will play Dober and then to sweeten the action a little bit because minus 150 just not good enough for me …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
King Green

Green is a solid spot here. Dober has recency bias from two straight KOs, but Green is much more durable than those opponents (Rafael Alves, Terrence McKinney). Green will outstrike Dober, throw more combinations, and take home a decision. The line stayed around +130 to +135.

Bet at +130 to +135 range
"Bobby green is not those last two guys right Bobby green um why am I blinking on him well just a complete brain fart right there Rafael Alves you know I mean he's not Raphael office he's better than Raphael …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Paul leans Green, thinking he is a cleaner, more dynamic boxer who can win on volume. He notes Green has insane durability and will outland Dober. However, he is hesitant because Dober lands bigger shots and judges may favor damage. He says if the lines were flipped he wouldn't touch it, but at plus money he considers it.

"I kind of want to bet Bobby green Cody... I think he ends up winning the volume and then it comes down to like when this goes to a scorecard"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
King Green

The MMA Guru picks King Green over Drew Dober, despite many picking Dober. He compares Dober to Rafael Fiziev, whom Green nearly beat, and believes Green's style of straight punches and range control will trouble Dober. He notes Green's reach and height advantages and expects him to pepper Dober, swelling his eye and nose, and win a 29-28 decision. He also thinks Dober may not react well to Green's taunting.

"I'ma go Bobby green"
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing Dober's 58% takedown defense and history of being submitted. He notes Dober's only path is a knockout, but Makhachev's game plan of clinching and taking down should prevail. He predicts a dominant decision win and mentions Makhachev as a parlay piece.

"i'm gonna take mockajif here i'm gonna take him pretty comfortably"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev, citing his superior wrestling and takedowns, noting that Dober gets taken down even in wins. He acknowledges Dober's power but believes Makhachev will control the fight and win by decision or submission.

"gonna go makacha probably either decision or submission so i'll go with makachev here man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev has a huge grappling advantage and should be able to take Dober down at will. Dober's last three losses are by submission, and Makhachev is a high-level grappler. The host predicts a submission win in round one or two.

submission plus 450
"i'm going with islam here and i'm taking him to win this fight via submission round one or two"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win by submission. He notes Dober has been submitted before and has poor grappling defense, while Makhachev has great grappling. He predicts Makhachev will take Dober down and get a rear-naked choke finish, though he cautions that Makhachev is not as good as Khabib and could be vulnerable on the feet.

"i think islam makashif goes out there gets a 30-27 somewhat competitive decision stays on top lands more total strikes wins the fight that way actually no i will go with submission"