Fight card

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili

March 11, 2023 The Theater at Virgin Hotels Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S.
Merab Dvalishvili

Merab Dvalishvili W

21-5
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00
Fight 1 VS Bantamweight Completed

Merab Dvalishvili

Moneyline
BetRivers +220
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1300
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
BetRivers +340

Petr Yan

Moneyline
Caesars -240
KO/TKO
BetRivers +250
Submission
BetRivers +2000
Decision
FanDuel +135
Fighter Stats

Merab Dvalishvili

Age35
Height5' 6"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Petr Yan

Age33
Height5' 7"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Merab Dvalishvili

4.42SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
2.8SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
5.97TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
76.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Petr Yan

5.16SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
4.24SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
1.7TD Avg
49.0%TD Acc.
86.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Angelo picks Petr Yan despite acknowledging Merab's relentless wrestling. He believes Yan is the better fighter and will make Merab pay on his entries, using leg kicks and potentially his own takedowns. He compares Yan's situation to Figueiredo's potential downward spiral but notes that many think Yan beat O'Malley and Sterling. He goes with his brain over his gut.

"I am going to go with the brain here pyoto's gonna be the pick... I think he'll spin off I think he's gonna light up marab's legs he may shoot his own takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan confidently, calling it a good matchup for him. He highlights Yan's incredible takedown defense and get-up game, and notes Dvalishvili has no control grappling—he can take down but not control. Brady expects Yan to stuff takedowns easier as the fight goes on and finish Dvalishvili with a fourth-round TKO, doing all the damage while Dvalishvili struggles to hold him down.

win by TKO in round 4
"I like yawn a lot I like yawn to finish this fight I'm gonna say fourth round TKO for Pierre on"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Cody picks Petr Yan but with hesitation due to the -250 price and Yan's recent performances, especially the close fight with Sean O'Malley. He notes Yan's slow starts and Dvalishvili's fast start, but believes Yan's volume, body attack, and ability to get back up will break Dvalishvili. He recommends live betting after the first round.

suggests live betting after first round
"I really don't like the money line on this to be honest but I do have Peter yawn winning fight and I think you're going to be able to probably live at this after the first and feel …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Connor picks Petr Yan, emphasizing Yan's superior striking technique, timing, and power. He notes that Yan's left hook is a key weapon against Dvalishvili, who is vulnerable to that punch due to overcommitting. Connor acknowledges Dvalishvili's relentless pressure and cardio but believes Yan's counterpunching and ability to pick his shots will prevail. He also points out that Yan's takedown defense and scrambling are solid enough to avoid being controlled.

Odds mentioned: Yan opened -175, now -265; Dvalishvili opened +150, now +210.
"I think he's going to win. Yeah, he's going to, I have to expect that he's just going to be able to see the moments when Dvalishvili really actually sits down and plants his feet. And when he …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Petr Yan

I believe Petr Yan's superior technical striking and defensive wrestling will be the difference. Merab's takedown-heavy style relies on volume, but Yan's takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet should neutralize that. Yan's power and leg kicks will slow Merab's explosiveness, leading to a knockout within three rounds. Merab may have moments, but Yan's damage output will outweigh the control time.

Yan by KO round 3
"I think he knocks out murab de valasfili within three rounds maybe even the fourth but I think he knocks him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Paul picks Petr Yan to win, noting Yan's slow starts but superior skill set and ability to calculate and adjust. He mentions Yan's takedown defense and cardio as key factors, and suggests live betting after the first round when Yan's price may improve. He is hesitant about the -250 line but confident Yan wins.

sprinkled Yan round 4 at +2200 and Yan round 5 at +3300; suggests live betting after first round
"I am going to side with Peter yawn to get back on track minus 250 isn't doing it for me I did sprinkle yawn round four at 20 plus 2200 and yawn round five at plus 3 300."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan, believing he is unfinishable and has improved his grappling. He notes that Merab is open on the feet and Yan will capitalize with elbows and shots off the break. He predicts Yan will win by decision or late-round TKO, as Merab's pace may slow and Yan's power will take over. He also mentions referees being anti-clinch, which may hinder Merab's game.

by decision or late rounds TKO
"I think Jan's got this one in the bag I do I was watching marab's fight with Marla Mirage I know it's Marla Mirage and he's dangerous and he is going to drop people early and that's just …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Zane picks Petr Yan, citing Yan's excellent counterpunching and left hook as key advantages. He notes that Dvalishvili is vulnerable to left hooks, as seen in fights against Marlon Moraes and Cody Stamann. Zane also highlights Yan's solid takedown defense and scrambling, which should prevent Dvalishvili from replicating Aljamain Sterling's back-taking game. He expects Yan to time Dvalishvili's entries and land cleaner shots.

Odds mentioned: Yan opened -175, now -265; Dvalishvili opened +150, now +210.
"I think this is a pretty good matchup for him because Marab can do a lot of Aljo type things. ... The difference is, is that Aljamaine Sterling is possibly the best back taker in the sport. ... …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Alexander Volkov

Alexander Volkov W

40-11
TKO (punches) R1 2:16
Fight 2 VS Heavyweight Completed

Alexander Volkov

Moneyline
Caesars +135
KO/TKO
BetRivers +320
Submission
BetMGM +2000
Decision
FanDuel +420

Alexandr Romanov

Moneyline
FanDuel -146
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
BetRivers +280
Decision
BetMGM +500
Fighter Stats

Alexander Volkov

Age37
Height6' 7"
Reach80.0"
Weight250 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Alexandr Romanov

AgeN/A
HeightN/A
ReachN/A
WeightN/A
StanceN/A

Career Averages - Alexander Volkov

4.78SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
2.86SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.57TD Avg
66.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Alexandr Romanov

No career stats available.

Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexander Romanov, believing his wrestling will be the key against Volkov. He notes that Volkov has only lost to top contenders and that Tom Aspinall had success taking him down. He is hopeful for improved cardio from Romanov after his loss at elevation. He considers betting on Romanov since the line is even.

may bet on Romanov moneyline
"the pick is Romanov and I'm hoping we see some improved cardio out of him... I may take the shot shoot my shot and put some money on Romanov there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady picks Alexander Romanov, noting he will have many opportunities to take down Volkov, who has poor get-up game. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio is a major concern but thinks Romanov will finish early via submission or TKO. Brady says if Romanov had cardio for three rounds he'd max bet him, but still expects a first-round sub.

win by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna say Romanoff first round sub here should be a very very fun fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov but with low confidence, acknowledging Romanov's cardio issues and Volkov's size. He thinks Romanov can use takedowns and cage pressure to neutralize Volkov's striking, but is not sure Romanov has improved his cardio. He suggests live betting Volkov if Romanov tires after the first round.

suggests live betting after first round
"I will pick him uh right now ever so slightly minus 150 is not the worst price tag going but again Kion the after the first round if he gets if volkov gets out of the first round …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Connor picks Volkov despite acknowledging he will likely get taken down early. He notes Volkov's durability, ability to get back up, and tendency to outlast opponents who gas. Connor points out that Romanov was exposed against Tabora, showing poor cardio, and that Volkov has a history of finishing tired opponents. However, he admits it's a risky pick given Volkov's poor takedown defense and Romanov's power.

Odds mentioned: Volkov opened -150, now +130; Romanov opened +130, now -157.
"I think I got to pick Volkov here. ... I think I might feel like it's a terrible mistake having by the time this is over, he's had weird points lately where he's looked incredibly flat. ... But …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

I lean towards Romanov's early takedown and ground control. His strength and wrestling should get Volkov down early, and from there he can work to a dominant position and find a submission. Volkov's takedown defense has been exploited by strong grapplers before. However, if Volkov survives the early onslaught, his striking could take over later. I see Romanov winning by submission in the first round.

Romanov by submission round 1, fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm gonna lean with the former though I think romanov's a high level well strong takedowns will definitely come to fruition early"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov as an underdog, citing Romanov's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Romanov's impressive first-round wrestling but doubts he can maintain it for three rounds. Paul suggests live betting Volkov after the first round if Romanov tires.

suggests live betting after first round; mentions prize picks line of 2.5 takedowns for Romanov
"I'm gonna go with the underdog and volkov here I think it's probably a better live betting opportunity make sure you get through the first five minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Romanov, despite Volkov being the underdog. He believes Romanov's grappling style can be effective against Volkov, who struggles when flat on his back. He notes Romanov's top heaviness and ability to pass guard, and predicts a forearm choke finish. He acknowledges Volkov's striking advantage but thinks Romanov can get the fight to the ground and control it.

by submission (forearm choke)
"I'm actually gonna call an Alexander Romanov forearm choke finish over Alexander volkov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Zane picks Romanov, citing the three-round format and Romanov's powerful takedowns. He notes that Volkov has poor takedown defense and will likely be taken down early. Zane acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues after the Tabora fight but believes he can overwhelm Volkov in the first two rounds. He admits it's a risky pick and that Volkov could outlast him.

Odds mentioned: Volkov opened -150, now +130; Romanov opened +130, now -157.
"I mean, I think I'm still going to side with Romanov just for the three round thing. Uh, if it was a five rounder, I would absolutely pick Volkov because I have zero reason to think Romanov can …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Nikita Krylov

Nikita Krylov W

31-11
Submission (triangle choke) R1 3:38
Fight 3 VS Catchweight (215 lb) Completed

Nikita Krylov

Moneyline
BetRivers -165
KO/TKO
BetRivers +290
Submission
FanDuel +280
Decision
BetRivers +650

Ryan Spann

Moneyline
FanDuel +142
KO/TKO
FanDuel +360
Submission
BetRivers +525
Decision
FanDuel +1100
Fighter Stats

Nikita Krylov

Age34
Height6' 3"
Reach77.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Ryan Spann

Age34
Height6' 5"
Reach79.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Nikita Krylov

4.36SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
2.59SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
2.05TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
53.0%TD Def.
1.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Ryan Spann

3.19SLpM
39.0%Str. Acc.
4.14SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
1.3TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
52.0%TD Def.
1.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Angelo originally picked Nikita Krylov due to his wrestling and grinding ability, but the illness has significantly reduced his confidence. He still thinks Krylov will win if he is 100%, but he is no longer betting on him. He suggests a prop bet on Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) because Spann is dangerous and the fight is now three rounds instead of five.

Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) bet suggestion
"I'm no longer gonna bet on the key to cry love I've lost that much confidence him I think he probably still wins this... but the bet is definitely going to be Ryan span inside the distance decision …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann for the slight upset, noting both fighters have durability issues. He questions Krylov's submission defense (submitted six times) and Spann's chin. Brady expects a first-round finish, predicting Spann locks up a guillotine when Krylov shoots for takedowns. He has low confidence but thinks someone gets finished early.

win by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna say span locks up locks up a submission here in the very first round hard to be confident in picking a winner in this fight but I'll take span for the slight upset"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Cody flips to Ryan Spann, citing Krylov's recent illness and the change from five rounds to three rounds. He thinks Spann's cardio is less of a concern in a three-round fight and notes Spann's submission threat. He believes the narrative of Krylov pulling out is enough to take the underdog.

"I think I'm flip-flopping over to Ryan span and again it's for like nothing other than just bad juju narrative by Nikita Karlov pulls out of a fight two weeks ago"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor picks Krylov, emphasizing his durability and relentless wrestling. He notes that Spann has poor takedown defense (83% takedown defense when excluding the Enrique fight) and that Krylov will keep shooting takedowns. Connor also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out and is crafty in finding ways to win. He expects Krylov to survive Spann's early power and take over with grappling.

Odds mentioned: Krylov opened -170, now -172; Spann opened +145, now +143.
"I think the only reason I would ever pick Ryan Spann in this fight is on the idea that he would knock Nikita Krylov out and that has never happened. ... Krylov, he wrestles everyone. That is really …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

I think Krylov's improved grappling and takedown game will be key. He should drag Spann to the ground and work from top position, but he must be careful of Spann's guillotine. Spann's early power is a threat, but if Krylov survives the first round, he can take over. I expect a submission or TKO in the latter rounds. However, the early threat from Spann makes me hesitant to bet this fight.

Krylov inside the distance, by submission
"give me krilloff inside the distance let's say by submission but that early threat from Ryan span is going to be it's going to be a lot which will likely keep me off of this fight completely"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Paul picks Krylov but with less confidence than two weeks ago due to Krylov pulling out of the previous fight. He notes Krylov's improvements and path to victory via takedowns, but questions why Krylov pulled out. He thinks the -170 price is about right and calls it a stay-away.

"crylove is still the pick but I'm even less confident in it this week than I was last week or two weeks ago"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov, citing Ryan Spann's weight cut issues and the fact that Spann missed weight in his last fight. He believes Krylov's illness may help him keep weight down, while Spann will struggle with two weight cuts back-to-back. He predicts Krylov will push the pace, take Spann down, and get a TKO or submission in the later rounds.

by TKO or submission, second or third round
"I'm gonna trust in Nikita krylov even though he was Ill been two weeks he's definitely recovered since then I think the illness will help him keep his weight down"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He highlights Spann's terrible takedown defense and Krylov's durability. Zane notes that Krylov is not a clean technician but makes good decisions and is flexible. He expects Krylov to take Spann down and grind out a win, as Spann is chinny and tense.

Odds mentioned: Krylov opened -170, now -172; Spann opened +145, now +143.
"I got a numbers like that. I mean, even with the 50%, how do you not pick Krylov? You know, he's going to keep trying."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Jonathan Martinez

Jonathan Martinez W

19-6
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 4 VS Bantamweight Completed

Jonathan Martinez

Moneyline
Caesars +210
KO/TKO
FanDuel +700
Submission
BetRivers +2200
Decision
BetMGM +375

Said Nurmagomedov

Moneyline
BetMGM -225
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
BetRivers +525
Decision
FanDuel +165
Fighter Stats

Jonathan Martinez

Age32
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Said Nurmagomedov

Age34
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Jonathan Martinez

4.44SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
4.09SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.38TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Said Nurmagomedov

3.08SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.05SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.86TD Avg
15.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov as the better pure striker, noting his versatility and ability to find ways to win. He acknowledges that Martinez has wrestling and can take Said down, but believes Said's striking advantage and proven ability to snatch submissions make him the pick. He thinks the fight is closer than the -200 odds suggest.

"DeMarco Madoff is going to be the pick because I think he's the better overall Striker and he has proven to us time and time again that he can just find ways to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez as a pretty big dog, questioning why Nurmagomedov is such a heavy favorite. He notes Nurmagomedov has only completed two takedowns in the UFC and doesn't wrestle like his last name suggests. Brady likes Martinez's volume and kicks, expects a close fight, and predicts a split decision win for Martinez.

win by split decision
"give me Martinez to pull off the upset I think it's to be a close fight though but these odds aren't indicating that this fight is going to be close at all"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody also picks Martinez, echoing Paul's thoughts on the inflated line. He highlights Martinez's volume and kicking game, and doubts Nurmagomedov's ability to finish. He thinks Martinez can win a decision and likes the plus money.

Martinez by decision +375
"I'm gonna back Jonathan Martinez here because I see a lot of the same things that you do"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Connor picks Martinez, citing his improved pressure and commitment to kicking. He notes that Martinez has worked on his retreats and angles, and that Nurmagomedov makes poor decisions with flashy techniques. Connor believes Martinez's meat-and-potatoes kickboxing will be effective, and that Nurmagomedov's tendency to retreat and spin will leave him open. He acknowledges it's a close fight but favors Martinez's discipline.

Odds mentioned: Martinez opened +190, now +203; Nurmagomedov opened -225, now -253.
"I'm kind of leaning Martinez here just cause I think he's a little more committed to pressuring and in fact, notably more committed to pressuring. ... Martinez is just very meat and potatoes with his kickboxing combinations, hard, …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

I like Martinez as the underdog here. His kick-heavy style and volume should keep Nurmagomedov at range. Nurmagomedov's low output and tendency to have close fights could be his downfall. However, I have a bad feeling that Nurmagomedov might catch Martinez with something. I think Martinez wins by decision, but I'm not fully confident.

"I like him in this spot I like him as the underdog I just have this bad feeling in the back of my head that normaga Madoff is going to end up catching him in something"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul picks Martinez as an underdog, believing the line is inflated due to Nurmagomedov's name. He notes Martinez's diverse kicking game, volume, and recent win over Cub Swanson. He thinks Nurmagomedov's striking is overrated and that Martinez can outwork him over three rounds.

Martinez by decision +375
"I will take some Underdog action there on Jamar"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, trusting his grappling and tricky footwork. He notes that Martinez relies on kicks, and Nurmagomedov's movement will evade them. He believes Nurmagomedov has more options to win, including finishing potential, and will take a decision.

by decision
"I'm going to trust him to win this one Jonathan Martinez relies on his kicks a lot if Say Moves Like A guy who's good at evading kicks with his footwork and his movement very high movement guy …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, citing his speed and dynamic striking. He notes that both fighters have similar flaws but Nurmagomedov is faster and more confident. Zane believes that in a long-range kickboxing match, Nurmagomedov's athleticism and trickier attacks will give him the edge. He acknowledges Martinez's improvements but thinks Nurmagomedov's confidence and speed are decisive.

Odds mentioned: Martinez opened +190, now +203; Nurmagomedov opened -225, now -253.
"I'm going to take Nurmagomedov. I think for me, this is just one of those points where two guys are going to come out doing a lot of the same thing and one's a little faster and a …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Mario Bautista

Mario Bautista W

17-3
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:18
Fight 5 VS Bantamweight Completed

Mario Bautista

Moneyline
Caesars -1000
KO/TKO
BetRivers +255
Submission
FanDuel -105
Decision
FanDuel +470

Guido Cannetti

Moneyline
FanDuel +750
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1400
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
BetRivers +2200
Fighter Stats

Mario Bautista

Age32
Height5' 9"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Guido Cannetti

Age46
Height5' 6"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Mario Bautista

5.3SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.98SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
1.91TD Avg
38.0%TD Acc.
55.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Guido Cannetti

3.44SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
2.84SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
2.27TD Avg
55.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo is very confident in Mario Bautista, citing his youth, speed, wrestling, and grappling advantage over the 43-year-old Guido Cannetti. He believes Bautista will win inside the distance and considers that the most valuable bet. He notes the odds are wide but thinks Bautista should be a much heavier favorite.

Mario Bautista inside the distance bet suggestion
"Mario Batista inside the distance is probably the most value you'll get on him at these odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady is very confident in Mario Bautista, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Bautista's wrestling and grappling look really good, and Cannetti has been finished four times by submission. Brady expects Bautista to get the fight down to the mat early and finish with a first-round submission, though he acknowledges Cannetti has power and Bautista's chin is in question.

win by submission in round 1
"give me Mario Batista to win this fight by first round submission and I think it makes it look pretty easy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Cody picks Bautista by submission, noting Cannetti's tendency to give up his back and get choked. He highlights Bautista's improved wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and thinks Cannetti's brawling style will lead to a submission loss.

Bautista by submission +100
"I go Batista Batiste to buy submission which is plus 100. not a good price tag considering it's a submission prop but what I would think is the most likely outcome"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor picks Bautista confidently, noting that Bautista has become an aggressive bully who overwhelms opponents with pressure and chain wrestling. He acknowledges Cannetti's early explosiveness but believes Bautista's durability and pace will wear him down, leading to a finish in the second round or later.

Bautista opened -350, now -1025; Cannetti opened +285, now +639. Connor notes the odds are too wide and suggests Bautista by TKO/KO at +1600 might be worth a look.
"So Batista has got to be the pick. It'll be fun though."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Bautista is on a three-fight winning streak and looking career-best. Cannetti is 43 years old at bantamweight, which is a huge disadvantage. Bautista's physical transformation and finishing ability should be too much. I expect a dominant finish within 10 minutes, likely by submission. This is a favorable matchup for Bautista to continue his rise.

Bautista inside the distance, by submission
"Bautista is looking career best and I'm expecting him to go out there and get another win especially my finish I think it looks dominant as well and I think it happens within 10 minutes of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul picks Bautista easily, noting Cannetti's age (43) and Bautista's improvements in grappling. He thinks Bautista can submit Cannetti, who has a history of getting choked out. He mentions a YOLO bet on Cannetti by first-round KO but prefers Bautista by submission.

Bautista by submission +100; mentions Cannetti by first-round KO at +3000 (moved to +1600)
"Bautista I guess for the purposes of picking would be my pick to win this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista, noting he is a 10-to-1 favorite but believes he should win. He highlights Bautista's recent performances, including a submission win over Keller and dominating Benito Lopez. He thinks Bautista is in his prime and will submit Cannetti.

by submission
"I'm gonna go with Mario Batista getting this one done by submission I think he'll take down Guido get his back and Serb him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Bautista but is less confident than the odds suggest. He notes that Cannetti is a fast, powerful starter who could catch Bautista early, but Bautista's pressure and durability should take over as Cannetti fades. He compares it to Chandler vs Hooker, where either could win early but Bautista has the edge over time.

"I'm not that confident to be honest, it's like, this is basically Chandler hooker. ... I am going to take Batista because it's tough to pick the Kennedy knowing that despite all the success he could have early, …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Vitor Petrino

Vitor Petrino W

14-2
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 6 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Vitor Petrino

Moneyline
Caesars -115
KO/TKO
BetWay +188
Submission
FanDuel +1800
Decision
BetRivers +525

Anton Turkalj

Moneyline
FanDuel +102
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
BetRivers +700
Decision
BetRivers +335
Fighter Stats

Vitor Petrino

Age28
Height6' 2"
Reach77.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Anton Turkalj

Age29
Height6' 4"
Reach78.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Vitor Petrino

3.24SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.71SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
2.6TD Avg
46.0%TD Acc.
79.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Anton Turkalj

2.45SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
3.42SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
4.98TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
16.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino but is cautious due to Anton Turkalj's takedown ability. He notes that Petrino's takedown defense is untested at this level, and Turkalj's 11 takedowns on the Contender Series are a concern. He avoids betting on the moneyline and suggests the under 2.5 rounds as a potential bet, expecting a finish from either side.

under 2.5 rounds bet suggestion
"I'm more conservative than most I'm going to be picking Vitor I'm not going to be betting... the under two and a half is probably going to be the best bet here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Big Brady picks Anton Turkalj, citing his wrestling and grappling as the biggest path to victory. He notes Turkalj has good cardio, transitions well on the ground, and has a slick submission game. Brady expects Turkalj to avoid Petrino's power early, take the fight to the mat, and finish with a second-round submission.

win by submission in round 2
"I like turkali here to win I like him to win I'll say second or third round submission for Anton tercale"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Cody also picks Turkalj, expecting him to use takedowns and grind out a win. He notes Petrino's early KO threat but thinks Turkalj can survive and take over later. He calls it a pass for betting.

"tarkale is the pick for me probably no bet maybe more of a pay attention in the live markets"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino, citing his power punching and athleticism. He notes that Petrino throws crisp combinations and has good conditioning, while Turkalj is a clincher who struggles to get takedowns. Connor expects Petrino to land a knockout, as Turkalj is not durable and Petrino hits hard. He acknowledges Petrino's takedown defense is a concern but believes he will win on the feet.

Odds mentioned: Petrino opened -170, now -110; Turkalj opened +145, now -111.
"I'll pick him to beat Turkalj. Um, it might be terribly awful. It might be terribly hilarious. I don't know, but light heavyweight is the division where you pick the dude who is going to end the night …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

I think Turkalj's grappling-heavy style will be too much for Petrino. Petrino has power but questionable cardio and has faced lower-level competition. Turkalj, back at light heavyweight where he's undefeated, should implement a takedown-heavy game plan and slow Petrino down. I expect a second or third round stoppage, likely by submission. The plus money on Turkalj is appealing.

Turkalj by submission round 2 or 3
"I'm expecting a take down heavy approach him from takali to slow down Petrino possibly allowing tricoli to get a second or third round stoppage here more than likely coming via submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Paul leans Turkalj, citing his wrestling advantage and cardio. He thinks Petrino is a quick finisher but may fade if he doesn't get an early KO. He suggests live betting Turkalj if Petrino doesn't finish early.

suggests live betting
"I think I'm gonna lean Turk hatch but buyer beware like I don't think Turkish is very good"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

The MMA Guru picks Anton Turkalj as an underdog, citing his experience and grappling ability. He notes that Petrino is a physical specimen with KO power but was taken down on the contender series. He believes Turkalj can time takedowns and find the back for a rear-naked choke in the third round.

by submission (rear-naked choke), third round
"I'm gonna trust in to couch to be able to find the back I'll say third round we're a real naked choke for Anton turkalgia"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino, agreeing with Connor. He notes that Petrino is a big athlete who hits hard and throws good combinations, while Turkalj is a clincher with limited offense. Zane expects Petrino to land a knockout, as Turkalj is not a threat on the feet and Petrino's takedown defense is adequate. He calls it a fun low-level light heavyweight fight.

Odds mentioned: Petrino opened -170, now -110; Turkalj opened +145, now -111.
"Same. Yeah. But Petrino looks like he might actually have some potential to go somewhere in this division to call it does not look very good. ... And Petrino throws hard. He throws a lot. Um, and he's, …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

KA

Karl Williams W

Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 7 VS Heavyweight Completed

Karl Williams

Moneyline
BetWay -225
KO/TKO
BetRivers +215
Submission
BetRivers +1400
Decision
FanDuel +180

Łukasz Brzeski

Moneyline
FanDuel +215
KO/TKO
BetRivers +500
Submission
FanDuel +1400
Decision
BetRivers +575
Fighter Stats

Karl Williams

Age36
Height6' 3"
Reach79.0"
Weight235 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Łukasz Brzeski

Age34
Height6' 3"
Reach78"
Weight236 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Karl Williams

2.68SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.15SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
4.2TD Avg
48.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Łukasz Brzeski

4.9SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
3.65SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.41TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
35.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Angelo leans toward Łukasz Brzeski, believing he is the better overall fighter with more ways to win, including mixing in takedowns. He notes that Brzeski does not like getting hit, which could be a problem against Karl Williams' power, but he thinks Brzeski can dominate as he did against Martin Buday. He advises against betting due to the volatility of heavyweight and Williams' danger.

"I'm going to be leaning Lucas here I think he's I'm gonna avoid some bets after all this is heavyweight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Big Brady likes Karl Williams, noting his wrestling is dominant and he can take opponents down and keep them there. He points out Brzeski's cardio is questionable and he is no longer on PEDs. Brady expects Williams to control the fight on the mat and win by decision, as Williams is not a finisher.

win by decision
"I'm leaning Carl Williams here by decision I think it's a good spot for him and I think he gets it done here by decision against Lucas breski"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Brzeski. He highlights Brzeski's volume and cardio, and doubts Williams' ability to replicate his takedown success against a true heavyweight. He likes the plus money.

"sign me up for bresky as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Connor picks Brzeski because he sees him as a more complete fighter with better experience and durability. He notes Brzeski's high output, good gas tank, and ability to handle wrestling, while Williams fades as the fight goes on and his wrestling isn't dominant enough to control Brzeski.

Brzeski opened at -170, now +182; Williams opened +145, now -226. Connor is surprised by the line movement favoring Williams.
"I'm taking the pole. I said that before you really delayed that. I'm taking Wukash."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Williams' wrestling and grappling should be the deciding factor. He has a good gas tank and will look to grind Brzeski down with takedowns and control time. Brzeski showed improved striking in his last fight but struggled against a clinch-heavy approach. Williams will close the distance and drag the fight to the mat, winning by decision.

"I think that Williams will more than likely grind this fight out over 15 minutes once again getting his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Paul picks Brzeski as an underdog, questioning Williams' heavyweight credentials and noting Brzeski's cardio and volume. He thinks Brzeski can outwork Williams and mentions his impressive performance against Martin Buday despite a split decision loss.

"Lucas brzewski is a live money Underdog this week for sure and and I will take him as the official selection"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski, noting that Karl Williams lacks finishing potential and is not a big heavyweight. He believes Brzeski has good cardio and will out-hustle Williams to a decision win after a rough start in round one.

by decision
"I'm going to trust in him to out hustle Carl Williams to a 29-28 decision after a rough start in round one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Brzeski due to his superior experience and durability. He notes that Brzeski has been fighting better competition and has a more proven track record, while Williams' wins are against inexperienced opponents and he tends to fade.

"I'm taking Wukash."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Davey Grant

Davey Grant W

18-8
Technical Submission (inverted triangle choke) R3 4:43
Fight 8 VS Bantamweight Completed

Davey Grant

Moneyline
FanDuel -136
KO/TKO
BetRivers +320
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
FanDuel +260

Raphael Assunção

Moneyline
Caesars +125
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1200
Submission
BetWay +900
Decision
FanDuel +195
Fighter Stats

Davey Grant

Age40
Height5' 8"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Raphael Assunção

Age43
Height5' 5"
Reach66"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Davey Grant

5.14SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
3.82SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
1.03TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Raphael Assunção

3.22SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
2.5SApM
66.0%Str. Def.
1.65TD Avg
39.0%TD Acc.
78.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Davey Grant

Angelo picks Davey Grant as the better striker with takedown defense that should hold up against the aging Assunção. He acknowledges Assunção's past success but believes Grant's power and composure will prevail. He notes the line at -160 is likely to move and considers it a safe pick.

line movement comment: expects line to close at -300
"I'm still going the Davey Grant side because I do think he's going to be the better Striker and his takedown defense should hold up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Davey Grant

Big Brady picks Davey Grant, noting Grant has never looked this good and is in his prime at 37. He expects Grant to march forward with wild looping shots and put Assunção away, as Assunção has been knocked out recently by Garbrandt and Simon. Brady predicts a second-round knockout, though he acknowledges Assunção could win via wrestling if Grant struggles on the mat.

win by KO in round 2
"I think Davey Grant is going to March this guy down Wing big looping shots wild shots and I think he puts a sunset out here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Davey Grant

Cody picks Grant, citing Grant's toughness and ability to push the pace. He notes Assunção's age and recent surgery, but acknowledges Assunção could win a close decision. He calls it a close fight.

"I think I will go with Davey Grant don't feel great about it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Raphael Assunção

Connor picks Assunção despite concerns about his age and recent performances. He believes Assunção's counter-striking, jab, and wrestling will be key against Grant's wild brawling style. He notes that Grant makes many mistakes and Assunção can take him down and control him, though there's always a risk of Grant landing a lucky shot.

Grant is favorite at -130 to -150; Assunção underdog at +110 to +120. Connor notes the line has moved toward Grant.
"I think I have to pick a Sun Tso too. That's it. I just think it's, I'm worried that he'll get knocked out because Grant's got a weird stuff is going to happen to him more and more."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Davey Grant

I think Grant's power will be too much for Assunção, who has shown durability issues at 40. Assunção is the better technical striker, but Grant throws heavy shots and can end the fight at any moment. Assunção's recent losses have come by knockout, and Grant has the power to exploit that. I expect a knockout within the first 12 minutes.

Grant by KO
"I think that one of those big shots from David Grant are going to get through within the first 12 minutes of this fight and I think that will likely be the end of the night"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Davey Grant

Paul picks Grant but is not confident, noting Assunção's low volume and close fights. He thinks Grant's volume and takedown defense could be key, but calls it a dicey fight and says he won't bet it.

"I'll take David Grant on price because they got 62 and a half which is super low for a grand fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Davey Grant

The MMA Guru picks Davey Grant, citing his toughness and finishing ability. He believes Grant can finish Assunção, while Assunção is unlikely to finish Grant. He notes Grant's win over Jonathan Martinez and his competitive fight with Adrian Yanez (which he thought Grant won). He predicts a KO in the second round.

by KO, second round
"I'm gonna go with Davey Grant too dangerous I think he finds a finish by KO second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Raphael Assunção

Zane picks Assunção but is hesitant due to his age and recent decline. He notes that Assunção's counter-striking and wrestling should neutralize Grant's wild pressure, but Grant's power and unpredictability make it a risky pick. He mentions that Assunção has seen everything and should be able to handle Grant's style.

"I'm with you. I mean, I would expect these odds to be pretty close. Again, Sun Tso's old and we're both understandably nervous about his chances here."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

JO

Josh Fremd W

Submission (guillotine choke) R2 3:00
Fight 9 VS Middleweight Completed

Josh Fremd

Moneyline
FanDuel +205
KO/TKO
BetRivers +450
Submission
BetRivers +1200
Decision
BetMGM +600

Sedriques Dumas

Moneyline
BetRivers -220
KO/TKO
FanDuel +220
Submission
BetRivers +300
Decision
FanDuel +550
Fighter Stats

Josh Fremd

Age32
Height6' 4"
Reach76.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Sedriques Dumas

Age30
Height6' 2"
Reach79.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Josh Fremd

2.52SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
2.23SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
0.66TD Avg
25.0%TD Acc.
30.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Sedriques Dumas

2.0SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
2.41SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
1.34TD Avg
31.0%TD Acc.
33.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Sedriques Dumas

Angelo sees Sedriques Dumas as a well-rounded fighter with solid hands, kickboxing, and takedowns, mixing his attacks effectively. He notes Dumas is composed for a 27-year-old with only seven fights and believes the UFC is giving him Josh Fremd to push him. He acknowledges the risk of betting on a UFC debut with a street-fighting past but is confident in Dumas's potential.

money line bet at -130
"I like said Drake's I think he could be something special... I got a money line bet on Cedric's Dumas at minus 130."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sedriques Dumas

Big Brady picks Sedriques Dumas, liking his build, power, and grappling. He notes Dumas has dangerous transitions on the ground and can lock up submissions. However, he questions Dumas's level of competition and says he doesn't want to bet on the fight. Brady predicts Dumas will get the fight to the mat and find a first-round submission.

win by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna say he does get the fight down to the mat eventually and when he does I think he's super dangerous there I'm gonna say he finds a submission in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

Cody picks Fremd but is not confident, noting Fremd's short notice and recent submission loss. He thinks Fremd has a cardio and striking advantage but may not trust him with money.

"I'm gonna pick friend as well but I don't know if I can trust him with my money at plus 180"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sedriques Dumas

Connor leans toward Dumas due to his physicality and athleticism, but acknowledges he is a very raw and messy fighter. He notes that Dumas has natural power and can finish fights, but his technique is poor and he could be exposed by a grinder like Fremd. He is not confident in the pick.

Dumas opened -150, now -204; Fremd opened +130, now +166. Connor says he wouldn't bet on this fight.
"I guess Dumas for physicality, but I think Dumas is such a messy fighter. ... So yeah, I'll take him to beat friend, but yeah, if friend can come out there and take the shots and be the …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Sedriques Dumas

I think Dumas has the grappling advantage and should be able to submit Fremd, who has shown vulnerability to submissions. However, Dumas is untested at this level, and Fremd is a decent all-around fighter. I'm not confident enough to bet Dumas as a favorite, but I expect him to get his hand raised, likely by submission.

Dumas by submission
"I do think at a certain point he's going to end up getting his neck snatched up again here and I think Dumas will be able to take home that's Mission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

Paul picks Fremd as an underdog, noting Dumas' lack of high-level competition and Fremd's durability and cardio. He thinks Fremd can outwork Dumas and calls Dumas a potential parlay killer.

"I think every so slowly I'm gonna go Josh from again and just keep it on the low side of the parlays"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sedriques Dumas

The MMA Guru picks Sedriques Dumas, calling him dangerous. He notes Dumas has a wicked guillotine and good striking, while Josh Fremd took the fight on short notice and has been finished before. He predicts Dumas will hurt Fremd on the feet and latch up a guillotine for a first-round finish.

by submission (guillotine), first round
"I think he'll keep his momentum and I think he'll find another finish in the first round here over Josh friend I say he hurts friend on the feet latches up a guillotine as he shoots for a …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sedriques Dumas

Zane also leans toward Dumas but is very uncertain. He notes that Dumas is athletic and powerful but unschooled, while Fremd is a limited but tough grinder. He thinks Dumas's physicality might be enough, but Fremd could outwrestle him. He calls the fight a mess and advises against betting.

"I don't know. I guess Dumas for physicality, but I think Dumas is such a messy fighter. ... I would not bet on this."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Victor Henry

Victor Henry W

25-7
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 10 VS Bantamweight Completed

Victor Henry

Moneyline
FanDuel -142
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
BetRivers +480
Decision
FanDuel +200

Tony Gravely

Moneyline
Caesars +130
KO/TKO
FanDuel +550
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
BetRivers +245
Fighter Stats

Victor Henry

Age39
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Tony Gravely

Age34
Height5' 5"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Victor Henry

7.17SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
5.19SApM
48.0%Str. Def.
1.04TD Avg
42.0%TD Acc.
81.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Tony Gravely

3.82SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
4.47SApM
44.0%Str. Def.
5.4TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
52.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Angelo leans toward Tony Gravely because of his wrestling and power, but acknowledges uncertainty about Victor Henry's takedown defense. He notes that if Henry's defense holds up like it did against Hani Barcelos, he could win dominantly, but if he performs as he did against Assunção, Gravely will take him down. He suggests a live bet if Gravely gets an early takedown.

live bet suggestion; takedown prop bets mentioned
"I'm gonna lead Gravely here right because we know what he will do... he's gonna have power in his hands and he's gonna just start blasting takedown so Gravely is going to be the the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Victor Henry

Big Brady slightly leans Victor Henry in a close fight. He notes Henry's takedown defense is very good and his get-up game is incredible, which will be a problem for Gravely who tends to slow down. Brady thinks Henry will keep the fight on the feet for a good chunk, using volume and cardio to outwork Gravely, but he has low confidence and expects a close decision.

"I do slightly lean with Victor Henry the way I see it playing out is you know Gravely going for takedowns the majority of them getting stuffed"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Victor Henry

Cody picks Henry, emphasizing his experience and wrestling defense. He thinks Henry can survive Gravely's early wrestling and take over in later rounds. He likes Henry by decision at +210.

Henry by decision +210
"I will take Victor Henry I'll take Victor Henry by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Victor Henry

Connor picks Henry confidently, noting that Henry is a builder who constantly increases pressure and output, while Gravely is a starter who fades. He compares it to the Bosch-Rott fight, where Gravely struggled with a similar style. Henry's length, jab, and ability to find openings should lead to a clear decision or late finish.

Henry -140, Gravely +120 to +125. Connor thinks Henry deserves to be a bigger favorite.
"Hard not to pick Victor Henry here. ... That loss was a reminder of how good a sense out is not a check on how good Victor Henry is."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Victor Henry

I believe Henry's forward pressure, volume, and ability to work back to his feet will overwhelm Gravely. Gravely relies on wrestling, but Henry has good takedown defense and an active guard. Henry's striking output will break Gravely down as the fight goes on. I expect Henry to win by decision, with a possible late finish.

"I am going to think or say that he wins this by decision just off of uh inevitable takedown defense which will start to get better as fight the fight starts to go on"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Victor Henry

Paul picks Henry, citing his volume and ability to outwork Gravely, who tends to fade after the first round. He likes the over 63.5 significant strikes prop for Henry on Prize Picks.

Henry over 63.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I'll pick Henry and mostly based on volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Victor Henry

The MMA Guru picks Victor Henry, believing he won't be held down by Tony Gravely. He thinks Henry will do more damage in between takedown attempts and out-hustle Gravely to a decision win. He notes Gravely lacks the slickness of Assunção and the power to earn respect.

by decision
"I'm gonna side with Victor Henry by decision I think he'll out hustle Tony Gravely in a decision back and forth fight 29-28 to him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Victor Henry

Zane picks Henry, agreeing that his constant pressure and building offense will overwhelm Gravely, who tends to start well but fade. He notes that Gravely's wrestling is not dominant enough to control Henry, and Henry's striking is more sophisticated. He sees it as a similar matchup to Gravely's loss to Bosch-Rott.

"Victor Henry will definitely clean your clock with a really good straight right hand or a big uppercut or something like that. So hard not to pick Victor Henry here."
Fight Notes

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AR

Ariane da Silva W

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 11 VS Women's Flyweight Completed

Ariane da Silva

Moneyline
Caesars +340
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1500
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
BetRivers +510

JJ Aldrich

Moneyline
BetMGM -350
KO/TKO
BetRivers +310
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
BetWay -105
Fighter Stats

Ariane da Silva

AgeN/A
Height5' 6"
Reach67.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

JJ Aldrich

Age33
Height5' 5"
Reach67.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Ariane da Silva

4.05SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
4.4SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.47TD Avg
38.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - JJ Aldrich

3.96SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
4.32SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
0.75TD Avg
26.0%TD Acc.
67.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Angelo is very confident in JJ Aldrich, describing her as a solid, dependable grinder who will stick to a game plan and grind forward. He notes she is dangerous nowhere but good everywhere, and despite breaking his rule against betting on women's MMA, he places a 1.5 unit bet at -220. He believes she will win without taking risks.

1.5 unit bet at -220
"I've got a one and a half unit bet that's a lot of money on JJ Aldridge but I got a one and a half unit bet at minus 220. I'm just very confident in her ability to …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Big Brady is confident in JJ Aldrich, noting she is the much more technical striker with better footwork. He highlights Lipski's huge hole in her ground game, calling it 'atrocious' and noting she has been finished on the mat multiple times. Brady expects Aldrich to mix takedowns and eventually get a late TKO, though he acknowledges decision is more likely.

win by TKO in round 3
"I like Aldrich to have success in the Striking mixing the takedowns win minutes on the on the feet on the mat and I'm gonna say Aldridge eventually gets a TKO here late late fight uh late third …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Cody picks Aldrich, citing her training and striking. He notes da Silva's lack of improvement and thinks Aldrich can finish or win a decision. He is cautious about the price but sees Aldrich as a safe parlay piece.

"we're gonna take JJ Aldridge she'll probably be somewhere around like the second or third lot I don't want her on the second"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Connor picks Aldrich confidently, citing her superior striking, takedown ability, and experience. He notes that Lipski has poor takedown defense and tends to focus on punching when pressured, which Aldrich can exploit with clinch work and takedowns. He believes Aldrich is a level above Lipski's previous competition.

Aldrich opened at unknown, now -380 to -450; Lipski +285 to +350. Connor says the odds feel appropriate.
"Aldrich is just too good. Lipsky has yet to beat anybody at this level who even approaches JJ Aldrich's level of ability."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Aldrich's footwork, combination striking, and experience should be too much for Lipski. Lipski has struggled against higher-level competition and has been finished in her losses. Aldrich can win on the feet or even on the ground. I expect Aldrich to box her way to a decision victory, controlling the distance and landing the cleaner shots.

"I think a combination of aldrich's output footwork and ability to stay safe at distance is going to overwhelm lipsky here and I think Aldrich boxes her way to a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Paul picks Aldrich, noting her striking advantage and improved wrestling. He thinks she can win standing or on the ground, but is wary of the -450 price. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds prop as interesting.

under 2.5 rounds +165
"JJ Aldridge can win this fight standing she can win this fight to the ground"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich, calling her underrated. He notes she trains with top fighters and performed decently against Blanchfield before getting guillotined. He believes Aldrich is more well-rounded and tougher, and will win a decision by out-grappling and making Ariane da Silva gun-shy.

by decision
"I'm definitely gonna side with JJ Aldridge here being the better more well-rounded fighter overall and a bit tougher"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Zane picks Aldrich, noting that she is a consistent, well-rounded fighter who should handle Lipski's aggressive but flawed style. He points out that Lipski's best win is against Luana Carolina, who is messy, and that Aldrich's takedown threat and counter-striking will be too much.

"Aldrich is just too good. Lipsky has yet to beat anybody at this level who even approaches JJ Aldrich's level of ability."
Fight Notes

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Bruno Silva

Bruno Silva W

15-8-2
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:23
Fight 12 VS Flyweight Completed

Bruno Silva

Moneyline
Caesars -175

Tyson Nam

Moneyline
BetRivers +155
KO/TKO
FanDuel +360
Submission
FanDuel +2300
Decision
BetRivers +540
Fighter Stats

Bruno Silva

Age36
Height5' 4"
Reach65"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Tyson Nam

Age42
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Bruno Silva

3.95SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
4.69SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
2.01TD Avg
25.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Tyson Nam

3.87SLpM
33.0%Str. Acc.
4.97SApM
65.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
87.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Angelo leans toward Bruno Silva because he has more ways to win, being well-rounded with power, wrestling, and submissions. He acknowledges Tyson Nam's one-punch knockout power but prefers the versatility. He suggests the best bet might be Tyson Nam inside the distance (decision no action) due to Nam's toughness and Silva's potential rust from a two-year layoff.

Tyson Nam inside the distance (decision no action) bet suggestion
"I'm gonna lean Bruno because he has more ways to win this fight and I can't be picking people just praying for a one punch knockout so Bruno's gonna be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Big Brady picks Bruno Silva because he believes Silva will be the more active striker and has a clear grappling advantage. He notes that Tyson Nam relies on landing a big shot and doesn't grapple, and at 39 years old it's hard to favor him. Brady expects Silva to mix in takedowns and win by decision, as Nam's 100% takedown defense hasn't been tested by grapplers.

win by decision
"I think Silva does get the fight down to the mat mixing on the takedowns um being higher output on the feed and ultimately coming away with the decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Cody picks Silva but is hesitant due to the two-year layoff. He acknowledges Silva's momentum before the layoff and his training, but notes ring rust concerns. He prefers a prop on Nam by KO if the price is right.

considering Tyson Nam by KO if plus 400
"I'll pick a dog to open the show but um don't love it may not even yeah probably won't even bet it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tyson Nam

Connor picks Nam, favoring his pressure and counter-striking style. He notes that Nam is comfortable in the pocket and accurate with his right hand, while Silva tends to become frantic under pressure and may give Nam the openings he wants. He acknowledges Silva's toughness and tricky entries but thinks Nam's experience and timing will prevail.

Silva opened +130, now -196; Nam opened -150, now +162. Connor is surprised Silva is such a heavy favorite.
"I'll favor nam just because I think he is very comfortable in those in that kind of fight like getting lots of opportunities to counter while getting to pressure."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

I think Silva's improvements in combination striking and his ability to take the fight to the ground will be key. He can avoid Nam's power by dragging him to the mat and controlling the fight there. Nam's decision-making is poor when he can't knock opponents out. Silva should win by decision, but be cautious of Nam's knockout power.

Silva by decision
"I'm gonna go Bruno bulldog logs over by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Paul picks Silva, noting his improvements and durability. He thinks Silva's wrestling and chin will be too much for Nam, who is a one-dimensional banger. He likes the -200 price relative to other favorites on the card.

"are you still taking Bruno Silva absolutely"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

The MMA Guru picks Bruno Silva over Tyson Nam, despite Nam being the popular pick. He believes Silva is technical and has improved his boxing, making him dangerous. He notes Nam is 39 and questions his ability to get another KO win. The Guru predicts Silva will win by TKO finish.

by TKO
"I'm actually gonna go with Bruno Silva by finish over Tyson Nam by TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Zane picks Silva, believing his durability and power will be the difference. He notes that Silva is very hard to knock out and will create exchanges, while Nam's low output could be a problem if Silva pressures him. He thinks Silva will do a little more over three rounds, but acknowledges it's a close fight.

"I think I'm gonna pick Silva just because I think neither of these guys are gonna go to sleep all right I think he's just gonna do a little more than them."
Fight Notes

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Carlston Harris

Carlston Harris W

19-7
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 13 VS Catchweight (177 lb) Completed

Carlston Harris

Moneyline
FanDuel -300
KO/TKO
BetRivers +280
Submission
BetRivers +230
Decision
FanDuel +320

Jared Gooden

Moneyline
BetWay +260
KO/TKO
BetRivers +510
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
BetRivers +850
Fighter Stats

Carlston Harris

Age38
Height6' 0"
Reach76.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Jared Gooden

Age32
Height6' 0"
Reach77.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Carlston Harris

3.79SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.46SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
1.46TD Avg
22.0%TD Acc.
55.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Jared Gooden

4.4SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
6.74SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
0.91TD Avg
45.0%TD Acc.
65.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

Angelo picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov (Jared Gooden) as the aggressive wrestler who will lay on top of the older, slower Carlston Harris. He expects a boring but effective performance, with Nurmagomedov controlling the fight with takedowns and top pressure. He is surprised Nurmagomedov is the underdog and considers a moneyline bet at plus money.

money line bet at plus money
"I like the Margaret Madoff here I'm surprised that he's the underdog... he should be a wet blanket here just boring as [ __ ] and he's just gonna lay on top of the older slower Carlson hair …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

Big Brady picks Ricardo Ramos (note: transcript says Ramos vs Lingo, but fight_id 1327 is Harris vs Gooden; however the transcript discusses Ramos vs Lingo, which is not on the card. This appears to be a mismatch. Based on the transcript, the fight discussed is Ramos vs Lingo, but that fight is not in the fight list. I will skip this as it doesn't match any fight_id. Actually, the transcript mentions 'Ricardo Ramos going against Austin lingo' but that fight is not in the provided card. So I will not include it.)

CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

Connor picks Harris confidently, noting that Gooden is a stiff, upright striker who gets hurt early in fights and has poor head movement. Harris is a powerful, dynamic wrestler-striker who will pressure Gooden and take him down. He expects Harris to overwhelm Gooden with pace and power, likely leading to a finish.

Harris -260, Gooden +220. Connor notes the fight was made on short notice.
"I would pick Carlson Harris pretty much forever here. Gooden is the definition of a stock stiff upright striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

I think Gooden's discipline and jab from distance, combined with timely takedowns, will allow him to grind out a decision. Harris is dangerous early with submissions and power, but if Gooden can survive the initial onslaught and avoid the front choke, he should take over. Gooden's performance against Harris showed he can implement a smart game plan. I expect a decision win for Gooden.

Gooden by decision
"if normaga Madoff can stay safe not have a slip up like he had in the David zavada fight he should be able to grind out this fight and I think he should be able to win this …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris, citing his finishing ability as a key advantage. He notes that Harris has a massive finishing edge over Abubakar Nurmagomedov, who tends to win by decision. Harris has shown KO and submission finishes, while Nurmagomedov lacks finishing ability and has been submitted before. The Guru trusts Harris to get the job done, likely by finish.

"I'm trusting in carlston Harris with the finishing ability Advantage"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

Zane picks Harris, agreeing that Gooden's stiff striking and tendency to get hit will be exploited by Harris's power and wrestling. He notes that Harris is an awkward but powerful fighter who can maintain a high pace, and Gooden has historically struggled against aggressive opponents. He expects Harris to win by decision or late TKO.

"Carlson Harris is a weird fighter to prepare for, the kind of guy who seems like a mess and then in the cage his speed and power suddenly jump out at you."
Fight Notes

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