UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2

Angelo picks Marlon Vera as a dog, noting that underdogs have won five of seven main events in 2024. He thinks Vera's durability and power will be key, as O'Malley is a counter striker who may not engage. He also mentions the Miami crowd may favor Vera. He suggests betting the over on rounds.

Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by decision, but is not feeling great about it. He notes that O'Malley is the better striker with more volume and accuracy, but worries about the later rounds as O'Malley has never been past three rounds. He believes Vera needs a knockout to win, and O'Malley should do enough to win a decision.

Cody believes O'Malley has improved significantly since the first fight, especially in managing space and distance. He thinks O'Malley will win on volume, similar to the Chris Moutinho fight, but acknowledges that Vera is durable and could come on late. He respects Vera but sticks with O'Malley as the pick, though he won't bet the moneyline.

Daniel Vreeland picks Sean O'Malley, emphasizing that O'Malley has improved his footwork and ability to cut angles. He notes that O'Malley's cerebral approach allows him to set traps, as he did against Aljamain Sterling. Vreeland argues that Vera fights by downloading information and then exploding, but O'Malley controls what Vera sees. He believes Vera's habit of giving up early rounds is dangerous against a finisher like O'Malley. Vreeland concludes that O'Malley is the better striker, longer, more explosive, and younger.

Daniel leans towards O'Malley to defend his belt, but he has significant concerns about O'Malley's durability and cardio. He notes that O'Malley will likely light up Vera early, but worries that O'Malley may gas out from beating on Vera, allowing Vera to take over late. Daniel references O'Malley's fatigue in the second round against Yan and Vera's proven durability and finishing ability. He also mentions that Vera's camp issues don't sway him. Ultimately, he picks O'Malley but calls it a 'dog or pass' betting situation.

Jeff Fox picks Sean O'Malley, noting that Vera is essentially the same fighter as in their first fight while O'Malley has improved significantly. He highlights O'Malley's improved footwork and ability to cut angles, as seen in the Aljamain Sterling fight. Fox also praises O'Malley's cerebral game, setting traps and controlling what his opponent sees. He believes Vera gives up early rounds and then has to press, which plays into O'Malley's hands. Fox is confident that O'Malley's striking, length, and youth will lead to a win.

O'Malley is the better technical striker with great fight IQ and trap-setting ability. He showed discipline and patience in his win over Sterling. However, Vera has never been knocked down in the UFC and is a slow starter who thrives in five-round fights. O'Malley may not get the early knockout, and if Vera finds his groove late, it could be competitive. I still pick O'Malley to win by decision, as his striking wizardry should allow him to outwork Vera over 25 minutes. I am passing on betting this fight due to the -300 line and Vera's durability.

Paul highlights Vera's slow-starting nature but five-round cardio and durability. He notes that O'Malley has not been tested in late rounds and that Vera's pressure and toughness will allow him to take over in rounds 3-5. He also points to a trend of underdogs winning main events recently and Vera's life-changing motivation.

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, predicting a boring fight where O'Malley uses low kicks and range to outpoint Vera. He argues O'Malley's feints are more dangerous because he can actually land the strikes he feints. He believes Vera will struggle to land his power shots and O'Malley will win a clear decision, possibly with a robbery if close. He notes O'Malley's underrated chin and better movement in the larger cage.

Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his pressure, power, and wrestling. He worries that Dustin Poirier's chin may have deteriorated after the Justin Gaethje knockout. He thinks Saint Denis can overwhelm Poirier early. However, he won't bet because he's rooting for Poirier.

Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by second-round submission. He notes that Saint Denis is younger, hungrier, and has grappling upside. He believes Saint Denis will get Poirier down and submit him, similar to how Michael Chandler did. He acknowledges Poirier's striking advantage but thinks Saint Denis's durability and pressure will be too much.

Cody points to Poirier's declining volume and durability, noting he has been outstruck in recent fights and is showing signs of wear. He contrasts that with Saint Denis's relentless pressure, cardio, durability, and progression. He believes Saint Denis will break Poirier's will as the fight goes on.

Daniel Vreeland picks Benoît Saint Denis but expresses discomfort with the -205 price. He believes BSD's wrestling and pace will be too much for Poirier, especially given Poirier's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes that BSD has finished all his opponents and has never been finished. However, he calls the line a 'dog or pass' spot because BSD has never fought anyone as tough as Poirier. He says he would rather see BSD fight someone like Rafael Fiziev before this step up. Despite the price, he picks BSD because he has never picked against him.

Daniel picks Poirier but is very hesitant due to Poirier's age and coming off a head kick KO loss. He acknowledges Poirier is the more skilled striker and believes he can knock out Saint Denis on the feet. However, he worries about Saint Denis's pressure, grappling, and durability, and whether Poirier still has the will and cardio to go five rounds. Daniel notes that if Poirier drops Saint Denis, he might follow him to the ground unlike against Charles Oliveira. He ultimately leans on Poirier's skill advantage.

Jeff Fox picks Benoît Saint Denis as well, noting that he has never picked against BSD and won't start now. He acknowledges the massive step up in competition from Matt Frevola to Dustin Poirier, but believes BSD's wrestling and finishing ability are real. Fox points out that Poirier has been knocked out recently and that BSD has the power to put him away. He also mentions that BSD is younger and has a relentless pace. However, he says he won't bet real money on this fight due to the price and the step up.

Saint Denis is a relentless pressure fighter with five straight finishes. He uses leg kicks, body work, and clinch pressure to break opponents, then works to the back for rear-naked chokes. Poirier is a better striker but struggles against aggressive grapplers who can close the distance, as seen in losses to Khabib and Oliveira. Poirier does not want this fight and may be mentally checked out. I expect Saint Denis to break Poirier within the first two rounds and secure a submission.

Paul emphasizes Poirier's mileage and the fact that he didn't even know the fight was on until recently, suggesting he hasn't been sparring hard. He contrasts that with Saint Denis's hunger and youth, and notes that Saint Denis has never been finished and has shown incredible durability and pace.

The MMA Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis, believing he will overwhelm Dustin Poirier with body kicks, takedowns, and pressure. He notes Poirier's wide hips and square stance make him vulnerable to body kicks, and that Poirier struggled with Chandler's body kicks. He predicts Saint Denis will finish Poirier by ground-and-pound TKO in round two, leading to Poirier's retirement.

Angelo leans Michael Page, citing his unorthodox karate style, speed, and power. He thinks Page's awkwardness will cause Kevin Holland to miss and then look to wrestle. He acknowledges this is Page's toughest test and that Holland is durable and composed. He has a small bet at even money but won't parlay Page.

Big Brady picks Michael Page to win by decision. He notes that Holland has poor fight IQ and likely won't grapple, so the fight will stay on the feet. He expects a close, competitive striking match that goes the distance, and he takes the dog in Page. He has low confidence and thinks the judges could get it wrong.

Cody thinks Holland has the durability and volume to overwhelm Page, and that Holland can exploit Page's lack of recent activity and questionable chin. He notes that Holland has a clear path to victory via wrestling, but acknowledges Holland might choose to strike instead.

Daniel Vreeland also picks Michael Page, though he initially hesitates. He notes that Page's recent results are actually improving and that his only losses are to Douglas Lima and Logan Storley, both via wrestling-heavy game plans. Vreeland argues that Page is still a better kickboxer than Holland and that Holland's path to victory is wrestling, but he doubts Holland can execute that game plan. He points out that even Douglas Lima couldn't consistently wrestle Page, so Holland may struggle. Vreeland concludes that Page's striking is enough to win.

Daniel is confident in MVP, citing his unorthodox striking, speed, and improved takedown defense. He dismisses the idea that Holland will wrestle, noting Holland averages less than one takedown per 15 minutes and is not a wrestler. Daniel believes MVP's distance and angles will frustrate Holland, and that Holland makes boneheaded mistakes. He bet MVP at plus 115 and expects a low-output striking match that could go to a split decision or a knockout of Holland.

Jeff Fox picks Michael Page as a dog, citing Kevin Holland's tendency to strike rather than grapple. He believes Holland will choose to strike with Page, which plays into Page's strengths. Fox notes that Page is past his prime but still has the striking prowess to beat Holland. He references Page's losses to Douglas Lima and Logan Storley, but argues that Page's striking is still elite and that Holland is not a strong wrestler. Fox is confident that Page's kickboxing will overwhelm Holland.

Page is a devastating striker with incredible speed, precision, and power. Holland will likely try to strike with him early, but his wrestling is not good enough to consistently take Page down. Page has good footwork and distance management to avoid takedowns and land his own shots. I expect Page to touch up Holland and eventually find a knockout in the second or third round. Holland's tendency to leave openings when his wrestling fails will be his downfall.

Paul believes Page is past his prime and hasn't fought in a year, while Holland is durable and has a significant experience advantage. He thinks Holland can use his wrestling to control Page, but also notes that Holland might choose to stand and trade, which could be risky.

The MMA Guru picks Michael Page, predicting a boring fight but a win. He believes Page's low kicks will be key, as Holland has poor leg kick defense. He expects Holland to get frustrated and drop his output, and Page will drop him off-balance with a straight right. He cites Holland's losses to fighters who used leg kicks effectively.

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume striking and jab. He thinks Burns is past his prime and has been exposed by wrestlers. He believes Della Maddalena will piece Burns up on the feet and defend takedowns. He has a half-unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.

Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Della Maddalena has great striking and power, but has made grappling mistakes in the past. He believes Della Maddalena can keep the fight standing and finish Burns, though Burns could submit him if it goes to the mat. He acknowledges the fight could go either way.

Cody notes that Della Maddalena has been in close fights and could easily have lost, while Burns is a well-rounded grappler with a clear path to victory via takedowns. He thinks Burns's wrestling and experience will be too much for Della Maddalena.

Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Della Maddalena, stating he has never picked against him and doesn't plan to start. He acknowledges this is a big step up from fighting Kevin Holland to Gilbert Burns, and calls it a 'dog or pass' spot. Vreeland notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, as seen against Kamaru Usman and Vicente Luque, and that Burns' path to victory is to grapple immediately. He believes the line should be closer to even money but still picks JDM.

Daniel is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, citing his superior boxing and underrated takedown defense. He notes that Burns has been dropped by jabs from Usman, Chimaev, and Muhammad, and that Jack has a nasty jab. Daniel acknowledges Burns's dangerous jiu-jitsu but believes Jack can avoid submissions by not getting carried away with guillotines like he did against Hiestand. He bet Jack at minus 135 and expects Jack to light Burns up and possibly knock him out.

Jeff Fox picks Jack Della Maddalena as well, echoing that he has never picked against him. He mentions that Burns is always in people's corners coaching, which may detract from his own training. Fox also notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, citing the Kamaru Usman knockout. He believes JDM's youth and momentum are key, and that Burns' best chance is to take the fight to the ground immediately.

Della Maddalena is a far superior striker with excellent range management and takedown defense, as shown in his fight against Kevin Holland. Burns relies on takedowns to win, but at 38 years old and with declining athleticism, he may struggle to get the fight to the ground. Della Maddalena should dictate the pace in the striking realm and eventually land a knockout in the second or third round. Burns' BJJ is a threat, but Della Maddalena's improved awareness should keep him safe.

Paul agrees, pointing out that Della Maddalena has shown holes in his takedown defense and that Burns can exploit that. He also notes that Burns has a strong wrestling game and can win rounds by controlling position on the ground.

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, arguing he clearly beat Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland. He believes JDM's striking defense is excellent and that he will stuff Burns' takedowns and tune him up on the feet with a jab. He notes Burns' tendency to bail on takedowns with guillotine attempts and predicts JDM will TKO Burns late in round one.

Angelo picks Song Yadong, feeling a changing of the guard. He notes Song hits hard, is fast, and can make the fight ugly, which is how you beat Yan. However, he acknowledges Yan is still very good and this is a tough test. He won't bet on it because it's too close.

Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win by decision, but has low confidence. He notes that Yan has lost four of his last five, but those losses were to top competition. He believes Yan's boxing and volume will edge out Song, who has more power but is less proven. He thinks the fight is razor thin and could go either way.

Cody is concerned about Yan's slow starts and poor decision-making in recent fights. He thinks Song's takedown defense, volume, and durability make him a live underdog, especially in a three-round fight where Yan's slow starts could cost him.

Daniel Vreeland also picks Song Yadong, emphasizing how Petr Yan has been losing. He notes that Yan's losses are to top competition but points to the Merab Dvalishvili fight where Yan was worn down by pace and wrestling. Vreeland believes Song's wrestling has improved and that he can take the first round against a slow-starting Yan. He argues that in a three-round fight, Song only needs to win the third round as Yan fades. Vreeland highlights Song's youth and upward trajectory as key factors.

Daniel picks Yan to get back in the win column, but it's a lean. He believes Yan is not washed and has looked good in recent losses to elite competition. He notes Yan's takedown ability and diverse striking, but warns that Song is a massive bantamweight with heavy hands and can crack in the pocket. Daniel expects a competitive three-round war and thinks Yan's experience and technique will prevail, but acknowledges Song could knock him out.

Jeff Fox picks Song Yadong at even money, citing Petr Yan's three-fight losing streak and mental state concerns. He notes Song's continued improvement and youth, and believes Yan's slow starts in three-round fights are a liability. Fox thinks Song's wrestling has improved, as shown against Ricky Simon, and that he can tire Yan out by pushing the pace. He concludes that Yan refuses to win the first round, making him vulnerable.

Yan is on a three-fight losing streak and has a low-output style that often leaves him behind on the scorecards early. Song Yadong has improved his takedown defense and mixes his striking with grappling well. He is likely to be the more aggressive fighter, using kicks and volume to win rounds. Yan has power and can turn a fight with one shot, but his tendency to give up early rounds is a concern. I lean Song Yadong by decision, but this is not a lock.

Paul gives Yan a pass for some recent losses, noting he has fought the best in the division. He believes Yan's experience and multiple paths to victory (striking, wrestling) will be enough to beat Song, who hasn't proven himself against top-tier competition.

The MMA Guru switched from Song Yadong to Petr Yan after rewatching Song's fight with Chris Gutierrez. He argues Yan's compact style and catch-and-shoot counters will neutralize Song's power. He notes Song couldn't finish Gutierrez or Cory Sandhagen, and Yan's durability and boxing should win a striking match. He worries about Yan's three-fight losing streak but believes the aura is still there.

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida, believing his relentless grappling and pressure will overwhelm Curtis Blaydes. He notes Blaydes hasn't attempted a takedown in three years and has poor takedown defense (33%). He thinks Almeida will take Blaydes down and dominate on the ground. He is waiting for plus money on Almeida before betting.

Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida is incredibly strong and has taken down bigger heavyweights, and that Blaydes has never faced a grappler like Almeida. He believes Almeida will get the takedown and finish quickly, though he acknowledges Blaydes could win if he stuffs the takedowns.

Cody thinks Blaydes is the natural test for Almeida at heavyweight. He notes Blaydes' wrestling, size advantage (40 lbs on fight night), and better cardio. He questions Almeida's striking and ability to take down a wrestler of Blaydes' caliber.

Daniel leans towards Almeida because he trusts Almeida to follow his game plan of taking Blaydes down, while he questions Blaydes's fight IQ. He notes Blaydes has a path to win by using his wrestling in reverse and keeping it standing, but fears Blaydes will test his grappling and get taken down. Daniel references Blaydes's poor decisions against Lewis and Pavlovich. He is not betting unless he gets dog odds.

Blaydes has strong wrestling and should be able to either stop Almeida's takedowns or land his own. Almeida struggled to finish Derrick Lewis despite 21 minutes of control time, showing he may not have the power to hurt Blaydes. Blaydes has better footwork and striking from the outside, and he can grind out a decision. The minus 120 line is great value on a fighter who is usually a chalky favorite. I expect Blaydes to win by decision.

Paul agrees, emphasizing the size difference and Almeida's lack of striking volume. He notes that Almeida has not faced a wrestler like Blaydes and that his takedown technique is not refined enough to take Blaydes down consistently.

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, calling him a 'roid abuser' but praising his athleticism and grappling. He believes Almeida will easily take down Curtis Blaydes, whose grappling he considers overrated. He notes Blaydes struggled to takedown Derrick Lewis, while Almeida toppled Lewis easily. He predicts Almeida wins a decision, not a finish.

Angelo slightly leans Maycee Barber due to her recent surge and well-rounded game, but warns that Katlyn Cerminara can drag opponents into a boring decision. He thinks Barber is too big a favorite. He suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.

Big Brady picks Maycee Barber to win, but is scared of the judges. He notes that Barber is younger, more physical, and has power, while Cerminara has zero finishes and low striking accuracy. He expects Barber's power shots to be the difference, but fears a split decision due to Cerminara's history of controversial wins.

Cody thinks Barber is overvalued and has shown poor takedown defense, while Cerminara is a smart fighter who can mix in takedowns and use her volume and movement. He believes Cerminara can win a close decision by outworking Barber.

Daniel picks Barber but has no confidence. He notes Barber has power and gets violent when she closes the distance, but she has had controversial decisions and can be held down. He sees Cerminara as a gatekeeper who can outstrike with volume. Daniel is not interested at the price and calls it a no-confidence pick.

Cerminara (formerly Chookagian) has a reliable style of staying on the outside, using her jab and kicks, and maintaining high output. She has been out for over a year but is still capable of veteran performances. Barber is on a winning streak but has had controversial decisions and can be taken down and controlled. Cerminara's volume and optics should allow her to win rounds on the scorecards. I expect her to touch up Barber from distance and win a decision. The plus money is appealing.

Paul agrees with the CF dog model but has some hesitation because Barber can be a brawler and has shown power. He thinks if Barber comes in aggressive, she could overwhelm Cerminara, but at plus money, he leans toward Cerminara.

The MMA Guru picks Maycee Barber, dismissing Katlyn Cerminara as not good and noting her inactivity (last fight in October 2022). He highlights Barber's youth (25), power, and strength, especially since moving to flyweight. He believes Barber's finishing potential and physicality will be too much for Cerminara.

Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.

Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.

Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.

Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.

Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.

Angelo leans Kyler Phillips due to his youth, cardio, and well-rounded game, but acknowledges Pedro Munhoz is the better fighter on paper. He notes Munhoz is 37 and has only one win in five fights, while Phillips is younger and has momentum. He won't bet because the odds on Phillips are too wide for an untested fighter.

Big Brady picks Kyler Phillips to win by decision. He likes Phillips' movement, volume, and sneaky power, and notes that Munhoz has been outlanded in recent fights. He expects Phillips to win the first two rounds and possibly drop the third, winning 29-28. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Phillips under 2.5 takedowns.

Cody acknowledges Phillips' speed and athleticism but worries about his cardio and durability. He thinks Phillips can win the first two rounds with movement and volume, but Munhoz's durability and pressure could lead to a late finish or decision for Munhoz.

Daniel leans towards Phillips due to youth, speed, and explosiveness. He notes Phillips goes balls to the wall and may fatigue, but Munhoz has also slowed down in later rounds recently. Daniel is not interested at the price but picks Phillips to win.

Phillips has a speed, footwork, and technical striking advantage that should allow him to dance around at range and touch up Munhoz. He tends to fade in the third round due to cardio issues, but he should win the first two rounds clearly and survive the third. Munhoz is a tough veteran with power and forward pressure, but his short reach and tendency to get outpointed by technical strikers is a concern. Phillips should put on a similar performance to his win over Barcelos, using movement and output to win a decision.

Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting Phillips' reach and speed advantages. He thinks Phillips can win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, but acknowledges the risk of Munhoz's leg kicks and pressure.

The MMA Guru picks Pedro Munhoz, arguing that Kyler Phillips' flashy striking style relies on hurting opponents, but Munhoz has never been dropped or wobbled. He notes Munhoz's low kicks and durability, and that even Sean O'Malley couldn't do much to Munhoz. He predicts Munhoz will win a decision, possibly 29-28, or even a draw if Phillips wins early rounds.

Angelo rolls the dice on Ion Cuțelaba, noting his dangerous grappling and power, despite his questionable chin. He thinks Cuțelaba can win because Lins hasn't faced good takedown artists. He warns Cuțelaba gets finished often but says his losses are to quality opponents. He won't bet on this fight due to Cuțelaba's chinny nature.

Big Brady picks Philipe Lins to win by decision, but is not confident. He calls the fight a 'dog or pass' because he doesn't trust either fighter. He notes that Cuțelaba has only 5 minutes of gas and tends to fade, while Lins has shown he can go 15 minutes. He expects a chaotic fight but thinks Lins can win a greasy decision.

Cody thinks Cuțelaba is explosive but has terrible cardio and often fades after the first round. He believes Lins is durable and can survive the initial onslaught, then take over as the fight goes on. However, he notes Lins has a history of pulling out of fights, which makes him hard to trust.

Daniel flips a coin and picks Cuțelaba. He notes Cuțelaba is dangerous early but can gas out, while Lins has been knocked out before but looked good at 205. He has very low confidence and says he could see it going either way.

Lins has been on a three-fight winning streak since moving down to light heavyweight, showing good power and the ability to mix in the clinch and wear on opponents. Cuțelaba relies on early knockouts but tends to gas out and become vulnerable if he doesn't get the finish. Lins is more skilled overall and should be able to roll with Cuțelaba's big shots, then grind on him in the clinch and slow him down. I expect Lins to showcase a full MMA arsenal and pick up a decision victory. The plus money is a good value.

Paul agrees that Cuțelaba is a one-round fighter and that Lins can weather the storm. He also notes Lins' durability and ability to go the distance, but he is concerned about Lins' frequent withdrawals from fights.

The MMA Guru picks Ion Cuțelaba, acknowledging his inconsistency but highlighting his physical freak athleticism and moments of brilliance. He believes Philipe Lins lacks the athleticism and power to punish Cuțelaba's mistakes, and that Cuțelaba will get his own way and finish early. He notes Cuțelaba's losses came against strong, athletic fighters like Nikita Krylov and Johnny Walker, which Lins is not.

Angelo picks Michel Pereira, citing his better cardio, power, and grappling. He notes Oleksiejczuk has a great chin but can fade. He has a half-unit bet on Pereira at -130, but keeps it small because Oleksiejczuk could survive early and outpoint him.

Big Brady picks Michał Oleksiejczuk to win by decision. He notes that while Pereira has a BJJ black belt, he doesn't wrestle often and lacks the cardio to grapple for 15 minutes. He expects the fight to stay on the feet, where Oleksiejczuk's forward pressure, body work, and volume will wear down Pereira and win the later rounds.

Cody notes that Pereira has matured and now fights more conservatively, using his accuracy and wrestling. He thinks Oleksiejczuk is a reckless brawler with poor takedown defense, and Pereira will counter him and mix in takedowns to win a decision.

Oleksiejczuk has great durability and forward pressure, marching forward and breaking opponents with his boxing. He has eaten clean shots and continued to push. Pereira is dangerous early with his unorthodox power, but Oleksiejczuk's durability should allow him to weather the early storm. As the fight goes on, Oleksiejczuk will start to catch Pereira, coral him against the cage, and land combinations. I expect Oleksiejczuk to get a finish in the second or third round, possibly by knockout.

Paul agrees, highlighting Pereira's improved fight IQ and the fact that he looked great at 185. He thinks Oleksiejczuk's wrestling is exploitable and that Pereira has multiple ways to win.

The MMA Guru picks Michał Oleksiejczuk, citing concerns about Michel Pereira's finishing ability and cardio. He notes Pereira failed to finish chinny fighters like Andre Fialho and Nico Price, and that Oleksiejczuk is extremely tough and has power. He predicts Oleksiejczuk will pressure Pereira, take him down, and finish with a body shot TKO in round two.

Angelo picks Robelis Despaigne despite it being his UFC debut, citing his Olympic taekwondo background, insane power, and 19-second cumulative knockout time in his last three fights. He acknowledges Parisian is durable and has experience, but believes Parisian lacks one-punch power to hurt Despaigne. He considers a high-risk parlay with Despaigne.

Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne to win by first-round knockout in under 60 seconds. He notes Despaigne's incredible reach and power, and that all his fights have ended quickly. He believes Josh Parisian will try to strike with Despaigne and get knocked out. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Despaigne's fight time under 4.75 minutes.

Cody is intrigued by Despaigne's physical attributes and knockout power but notes his lack of experience and questionable grappling. He thinks Despaigne will likely knock out Parisian early, but at -330, he's not confident enough to bet heavily.

Daniel picks Despaigne via knockout, citing his athleticism, reach, and power. He notes Parisian is a bottom-of-the-barrel heavyweight and Despaigne is too athletic for him. However, he warns that if Parisian gets double underhooks and takes it past round one, Despaigne could gas out. He expects a quick knockout.

Despaigne has insane power and speed, but there is not enough film on him against legitimate competition. He was held up against the cage in his debut, and his takedown defense is untested. Parisian has good durability, forward pressure, and a grinding style that could wear on Despaigne. If Parisian can survive the first couple minutes of each round and get his cage grind going, he is live to win. I have no confidence in the chalky spot on Despaigne, so I lean Parisian by decision.

Paul thinks Despaigne is a fraud waiting to be exposed. He notes that Parisian is a big heavyweight who can take Despaigne down and grind on him. He believes if Parisian can survive the first round, he has a good chance to win.

The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Robelis Despaigne, mocking Josh Parisian's physique and conditioning. He notes Despaigne is an Olympic medalist in Taekwondo with a massive reach and athleticism, while Parisian is out of shape and has been finished by lower-level heavyweights. He predicts a TKO victory.

Angelo is confident in Asu Almabayev, citing his wild striking, strong grappling, and cardio. He notes that if Tatu Riera could take down Vergara three times, Almabayev can too. He sees Almabayev as safe to parlay, contrasting him with point fighters he's wary of.

Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by third-round submission. He notes that Almabayev has good grappling and control, and that Vergara has been taken down and submitted in the past. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the mat and eventually find a submission over 15 minutes.

Cody thinks Almabayev's wrestling will be too much for Vergara, who has poor takedown defense. He expects Almabayev to chain wrestle and control the fight on the ground, possibly securing a submission.

Daniel picks Almabayev, believing he will dictate the pace and win by decision or submission. He notes Vergara is durable and well-rounded but not special anywhere. Daniel was initially low on Almabayev but was impressed by his performance against Ode' Osbourne.

Almabayev is a hot prospect who is very solid all around, but his best work is when he gets fights to the mat. He has impressive chain wrestling, using body locks and trips to drag opponents down. Vergara is a decent striker but lacks the power to keep Almabayev at bay, and his ground game is a weakness. I expect Almabayev to drag this fight to the ground, dominate from top position, and secure another submission victory.

Paul agrees, noting that Vergara has been taken down repeatedly and submitted in the past. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and submission skills will lead to a finish.

The MMA Guru is confident in Asu Almabayev due to his grappling advantage and C.J. Vergara's unimpressive UFC run. He notes Vergara has struggled against lower-level opponents and was dominated by Tatsuya Taira and Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Almabayev's dominant grappling win over Osbourne and predicts a first-round submission.

Angelo leans toward Joanne Wood as a dog, noting she is a technical striker with solid fight IQ and has only lost to ranked fighters. He thinks she can grind out a decision by getting the fight to the cage. He is wary of her age (38) and slowing down, but believes the odds on Moroz are too wide given Wood's experience.

Big Brady picks Maryna Moroz to win by second-round submission. He notes that Moroz has improved her wrestling and striking since her debut, and that Joanne Wood has been submitted five times in her career, including by Moroz in their first fight. He believes Moroz can get the fight to the mat and tap Wood out, though he acknowledges that Moroz doesn't wrestle often.

Cody thinks Wood is being undervalued as a +190 underdog. He notes that Moroz has poor striking volume and has been taken down in recent fights, while Wood has good volume, clinch work, and takedowns. He expects Wood to win a close decision.

Daniel picks Moroz but has no confidence. He notes Moroz has good takedowns and if she uses them, she will win. However, she has not attempted takedowns in her last two fights. If it becomes a standup fight, it could go to a split decision. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

Moroz is a solid striker but does her best work when she implements a grapple-heavy approach, controlling from top position and doing damage. She was successful in their first meeting via armbar submission. However, Moroz has been inconsistent and the -225 line is a bit wide for me to trust completely. If she is dialed in and uses her grappling, she should overwhelm the aging Joanne Wood. I expect Moroz to push the pace, drag the fight to the ground, and win by decision.

Paul initially leans toward Moroz by submission, noting she submitted Wood in their first fight. However, he acknowledges that Wood has improved her wrestling and that Moroz's recent form is poor. He ultimately passes on betting but notes the submission prop has moved from +400 to +220.

The MMA Guru acknowledges this is a tricky fight, noting that Joanne Calderwood has a skill advantage on the feet but is 38 years old. He believes Maryna Moroz's grappling and takedown ability will be the deciding factor, as she is younger and can implement takedowns to sway close rounds. He expresses hesitation but ultimately sides with Moroz due to her grappling edge.