UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020 · Women’s Bantamweight · Completed
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Age 42
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Germaine de Randamie
2.57 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
2.0 SApM
65.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Julianna Peña
3.1 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
2.56 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.7 TD Avg
54.0% TD Acc.
24.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Germaine de Randamie - Fight History
LOSS vs Norma Dumont
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Norma Dumont 0 11 of 29 37% 49 of 76 6 of 8 75% 0 0 10:04
Germaine de Randamie 0 16 of 33 48% 91 of 126 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Norma Dumont 0 0 of 5 0% 15 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:49
Germaine de Randamie 0 3 of 4 75% 23 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Norma Dumont 0 8 of 18 44% 28 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:44
Germaine de Randamie 0 9 of 20 45% 32 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:12
3 Norma Dumont 0 3 of 6 50% 6 of 13 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:31
Germaine de Randamie 0 4 of 9 44% 36 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Norma Dumont 11 of 29 37% 6 of 21 5 of 7 0 of 1 4 of 20 5 of 6 2 of 3
Germaine de Randamie 16 of 33 48% 7 of 21 7 of 8 2 of 4 8 of 24 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Norma Dumont 0 of 5 0% 0 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1
Germaine de Randamie 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Norma Dumont 8 of 18 44% 3 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 10 5 of 6 2 of 2
Germaine de Randamie 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 11 8 of 9 0 of 0
3 Norma Dumont 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Germaine de Randamie 4 of 9 44% 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Germaine de Randamie vs. Norma Dumont
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dumont (-175), de Randamie (+145)

Round 1
For the first time in years, Dumont (10-2, 6-2 UFC) successfully made the bantamweight limit, hitting the scales at 136 pounds. In her return to the division still maintained by the organization, she draws former featherweight champ de Randamie (10-4, 7-2 UFC), who is coming back after nearly a four-year layoff. The victor could be right in the title picture, and they have the next 15 minutes or less to make their case. Referee Keith Peterson will keep things on the up-and-up and not allow any nonsense in the Apex, and the bout starts with a sporting clap of hands. De Randamie leads off with a front kick up the middle, and she follows it with a low kick after Dumont misses with a right up top. Dumont whiffs on a leg kick, and de Randamie steps in and spins her around with a thudding calf kick. Dumont flicks out a jab, and she catches a leg kick and tackles de Randamie down to the ground. De Randamie hits her back and threatens with a heel hook, but the Brazilian is quick to push past it and climb into the half guard. Dumont keeps de Randamie pressed flat on her back, and de Randamie tries to scoot her way towards the fence to sit up. The Dutchwoman regains full guard and closes it, and Dumont tries to break out of it with a short burst of ground-and-pound. Dumont leans one side to pursue an arm-triangle choke, but the leverage is not right and she bails on it. Dumont keeps smothering without landing any offense, and de Randamie shrugs and looks to Peterson to do something. Peterson asks for more activity from the Brazilian, and she stands up and tries to pass guard but is stopped from getting anywhere while lowering herself down. Dumont steps over at the same time that de Randamie explodes back to her feet, and she dumps de Randamie down to the ground to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dumont

Round 2
The ladies clap hands to get things started, and de Randamie follows it with a jab. Dumont sits down on a big right hand, and she shoots in for a takedown. De Randamie stands her up and pops her with a jab, and when she looks to come after it with an overhand right, Dumont shoots in on her hips. The Dutchwoman again thwarts the takedown, and she turns Dumont towards the wall and starts landing short knees to the thigh and body. Dumont gives her one back before attempting to turn and throw her, but she bails when de Randamie keeps her balance. De Randamie finds the midsection with a few knees, and Dumont keeps a knee shield up to defend from a few more of them. De Randamie opens up with two clean right hands that make Dumont turn around, and Dumont gets away with a fence grab to turn herself in a more advantageous position. De Randamie keeps working the body with knees, and Dumont’s efforts to free herself or turn the tables largely fall short. Dumont does manage to put “The Iron Lady” and her back to the cage, but de Randamie responds with a knee up the middle that makes Dumont rethink her approach. De Randamie walks Dumont down and kicks her in the head, and Dumont shakes her head at her. De Randamie chains a few punches together, and she allows Dumont to throw hands because hers are more accurate and powerful. De Randamie looses a body kick, and the Brazilian catches it and slings her to the mat. Dumont lands and hacks down with an elbow, and she lifts de Randamie up and slams her on her back again to open up the guard around her waist. De Randamie maintains a high guard to keep Dumont honest, all while throwing elbows or punches off her back. De Randamie looks for butterfly hooks, and Dumont stands up and finds herself in immediate armbar danger. The round ends with Dumont surviving the sudden submission setup.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 de Randamie
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 de Randamie
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 de Randamie

Round 3
The bantamweights hug it out to start the final frame, and de Randamie is ready and willing to strike from her preferred range. Dumont swings back with bad intentions, but the straight, sharp strikes from the Dutchwoman keep her at bay. Dumont charges like a bull, grabbing hold of a double leg and sending de Randamie from one side of the cage to the other. De Randamie urgently moves to her knees and stands up with the wall at her back, and Dumont manages to hit a body lock and trip to dump her back down. De Randamie gives up her back when escaping, and Dumont sets up a rear-naked choke and stays with it while de Randamie turns to her back. Dumont lets the choke go and shifts to side control, where she sets up an arm-triangle choke. Dumont presses her shoulder down when the choke is not locked up, as she is on the other side. Dumont looks to pass as de Randamie turns to her side, and in the process she gives her back up. Dumont jumps on and sneaks a hook in, and she hand-fights while de Randamie protects against a potential choke. De Randamie keeps moving, turning all the way around and back to her knees. The Dutchwoman nearly slides Dumont off of her, but she manages to work to her feet and lean against the fence. Dumont laces one leg between her foe’s and wrangles de Randamie back down to the mat. A desperate de Randamie hacks with elbows or punches as Dumont lays on her, and this continues until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (29-28 Dumont)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (29-28 Dumont)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (29-28 Dumont)

The Official Result
Norma Dumont def. Germaine de Randamie via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Norma Dumont

Angelo picks Norma Dumont but acknowledges that Germaine de Randamie is much better than people give her credit for, with only losses to Amanda Nunes and wins over three champions. However, he notes that those wins are old (3.5 to 7 years ago) and that Germaine is 39. He thinks Norma's technical striking and sound takedown defense will be enough. He also mentions that Germaine might be a good plus 3.5 spread bet if she can win one round.

Angelo mentions Germaine de Randamie as a potential plus 3.5 spread bet (buying points) if she can win one round
"I got to go Norma here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Big Brady picks Germaine de Randamie despite a 3.5-year layoff and many question marks. He notes that de Randamie has only lost to Amanda Nunes in the last 10 years and is the better striker. However, he worries about her takedown defense and the layoff, and acknowledges that the line has moved from +180 to +115, making it less attractive. He is not confident and would not bet on this fight.

"I still think I'm going with gdr here the 39y old with a three and a half year layoff"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Cody agrees, noting Dumont's low output and reliance on clinch control, which doesn't score well. He highlights de Randamie's striking, body work, and improved cardio. Cody also mentions that Dumont will likely miss weight, which could affect her performance. He sees de Randamie as the better athlete and striker.

"I think it's gdr all day... it's a total dogger pass situation"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Daniel Vreeland picks Germaine de Randamie despite her four-year layoff, citing her championship-level resume and improvements in takedown defense before the break. He notes Norma Dumont has been dropped by lesser fighters like Megan Anderson and has only one path to win: extended top control. Vreeland believes even 70% of de Randamie is enough to beat Dumont, given the massive step down in competition.

"I think that Germaine de Randamie might have a little something for her so I'm going with the former champ here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

De Randamie is more skilled overall with striking advantages and improved grappling. She has size and reach advantages and can keep the fight upright. However, the three-and-a-half-year layoff and recent pregnancy are major concerns. If she comes in shape, she should win by decision.

de Randamie by decision
"give me durandy and toand me by decision um not a bad Underdog shot but be wary about all the things that I just laid out for you guys"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Paul picks de Randamie as a dog, citing her superior striking and experience. He notes Dumont is a decision fighter with low volume and no power, and that she will likely miss weight. Paul thinks de Randamie's cardio and durability are solid, and that her striking will be the difference. He calls it a quintessential dogger pass.

"it's a total dogger pass situation and Jermain randomy you could be doing a lot worse"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Norma Dumont

The host uses a mayonnaise bottle flip to decide, but then provides reasoning. He notes Dumont had a close fight with Macy Chiasson, nearly finishing her, showing good grappling. He criticizes de Randamie for being 39, inactive since 2020, and not impressive on the feet. He predicts Dumont will take her down and win on the ground.

"Norma's probably going to win she had a close fight with Macy chasson who I think is actually pretty good of a fighter and has good grappling so Norma jamont arguably nearly beat her"
Technical Submission (guillotine choke) R3 3:25 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Germaine de Randamie 0 37 of 91 40% 57 of 119 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:48
Julianna Peña 0 27 of 91 29% 58 of 125 3 of 6 50% 0 0 5:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Germaine de Randamie 0 20 of 58 34% 23 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 8 of 43 18% 12 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
2 Germaine de Randamie 0 6 of 9 66% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:48
Julianna Peña 0 11 of 23 47% 30 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:41
3 Germaine de Randamie 0 11 of 24 45% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 8 of 25 32% 16 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Germaine de Randamie 37 of 91 40% 32 of 86 5 of 5 0 of 0 32 of 84 4 of 6 1 of 1
Julianna Peña 27 of 91 29% 19 of 79 7 of 10 1 of 2 18 of 75 2 of 2 7 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Germaine de Randamie 20 of 58 34% 18 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0 20 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 8 of 43 18% 7 of 39 0 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Germaine de Randamie 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 1 of 2 1 of 1
Julianna Peña 11 of 23 47% 6 of 17 5 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 14
3 Germaine de Randamie 11 of 24 45% 8 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 8 of 25 32% 6 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Big Brady leans towards Germaine de Randamie to win by decision. He notes the striking discrepancy favors de Randamie, and while Peña's path is takedowns, he thinks de Randamie can stop them. He is worried about cage control but expects the fight to stay on the feet.

"give me drain derandomy to win this fight by uh by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Daniel picks de Randamie, emphasizing the massive striking gap and Peña's ugly stand-up. He believes de Randamie will clip Peña coming in and possibly knock her out, similar to the Aspen Ladd fight. He acknowledges concern if Peña gets on top but thinks de Randamie's takedown defense has improved and she will pull the trigger.

de Randamie by knockout; mentions the striking gap is bigger than the grappling gap; notes Peña's horrendous stand-up
"i'm gonna roll with jermaine duran maybe a knockout in this spot it kind of reminds me of the aspen lad fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

The host picks Peña as the underdog, believing her wrestling and trip takedowns will be effective against de Randamie's takedown defense. He notes that de Randamie has struggled against grapplers like Nunes and that Peña's style is similar. He predicts a decision win for Peña and thinks the line should be closer to -120.

"i love juliana pena in this situation i'm kind of surprised at the amount of love that's coming in on jermaine duranomy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

The Guru picks Germaine de Randamie, believing she can survive on the ground and will keep the fight standing to beat Peña with leg kicks and eventually finish by TKO. He notes Peña couldn't submit Nico Montano and thinks de Randamie is too big and dangerous.

Prediction: TKO
"i'm going to go to jeremy i think she can survive on the ground and i think she'll keep it standing and beat up juliana pena on the feet with some brutal leg kicks eventually finishing by tko"
LOSS vs Amanda Nunes
Decision (unanimous) (49–44, 49–46, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Dec 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 0 79 of 184 42% 199 of 337 8 of 11 72% 2 0 18:29
Germaine de Randamie 0 40 of 73 54% 126 of 175 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 0 42 of 87 48% 43 of 88 2 of 2 100% 2 0 2:53
Germaine de Randamie 0 11 of 23 47% 22 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
2 Amanda Nunes 0 9 of 26 34% 33 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:13
Germaine de Randamie 0 16 of 30 53% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
3 Amanda Nunes 0 16 of 44 36% 47 of 80 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:21
Germaine de Randamie 0 8 of 10 80% 17 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
4 Amanda Nunes 0 12 of 24 50% 22 of 39 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:16
Germaine de Randamie 0 4 of 6 66% 28 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
5 Amanda Nunes 0 0 of 3 0% 54 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:46
Germaine de Randamie 0 1 of 4 25% 30 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 79 of 184 42% 63 of 162 4 of 6 12 of 16 15 of 46 2 of 3 62 of 135
Germaine de Randamie 40 of 73 54% 19 of 48 11 of 15 10 of 10 19 of 42 12 of 13 9 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 42 of 87 48% 38 of 81 1 of 1 3 of 5 4 of 16 1 of 1 37 of 70
Germaine de Randamie 11 of 23 47% 2 of 11 4 of 7 5 of 5 4 of 9 4 of 4 3 of 10
2 Amanda Nunes 9 of 26 34% 4 of 20 0 of 0 5 of 6 5 of 17 1 of 1 3 of 8
Germaine de Randamie 16 of 30 53% 10 of 24 5 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 22 7 of 8 0 of 0
3 Amanda Nunes 16 of 44 36% 13 of 39 1 of 2 2 of 3 2 of 8 0 of 0 14 of 36
Germaine de Randamie 8 of 10 80% 5 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 5
4 Amanda Nunes 12 of 24 50% 8 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 2 4 of 4 0 of 1 8 of 19
Germaine de Randamie 4 of 6 66% 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1
5 Amanda Nunes 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2
Germaine de Randamie 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2
WIN vs Aspen Ladd
TKO (punch) R1 0:16 · UFC Fight Night: de Randamie vs. Ladd · Jul 13, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Germaine de Randamie 1 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Aspen Ladd 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Germaine de Randamie 1 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Aspen Ladd 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Germaine de Randamie 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aspen Ladd 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Germaine de Randamie 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aspen Ladd 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodríguez · Nov 10, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Germaine de Randamie 0 24 of 84 28% 52 of 130 0 of 8 0% 0 0 6:05
Raquel Pennington 0 42 of 107 39% 91 of 159 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Germaine de Randamie 0 4 of 11 36% 14 of 24 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:45
Raquel Pennington 0 9 of 22 40% 29 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
2 Germaine de Randamie 0 12 of 37 32% 20 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:27
Raquel Pennington 0 13 of 45 28% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Germaine de Randamie 0 8 of 36 22% 18 of 58 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:53
Raquel Pennington 0 20 of 40 50% 38 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Germaine de Randamie 24 of 84 28% 4 of 55 11 of 17 9 of 12 13 of 71 11 of 13 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 42 of 107 39% 17 of 73 17 of 24 8 of 10 25 of 84 17 of 23 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Germaine de Randamie 4 of 11 36% 0 of 7 3 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 8 3 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 9 of 22 40% 3 of 13 5 of 7 1 of 2 4 of 15 5 of 7 0 of 0
2 Germaine de Randamie 12 of 37 32% 4 of 25 1 of 3 7 of 9 9 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 13 of 45 28% 9 of 37 3 of 6 1 of 2 9 of 39 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 Germaine de Randamie 8 of 36 22% 0 of 23 7 of 11 1 of 2 3 of 29 5 of 7 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 20 of 40 50% 5 of 23 9 of 11 6 of 6 12 of 30 8 of 10 0 of 0
WIN vs Holly Holm
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 208: Holm vs. de Randamie · Feb 11, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Germaine de Randamie 0 77 of 182 42% 122 of 235 0 of 9 0% 0 0 8:16
Holly Holm 0 80 of 150 53% 144 of 223 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Germaine de Randamie 0 18 of 42 42% 19 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Holly Holm 0 12 of 25 48% 15 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Germaine de Randamie 0 13 of 30 43% 28 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:21
Holly Holm 0 19 of 34 55% 36 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
3 Germaine de Randamie 0 18 of 42 42% 19 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
Holly Holm 0 16 of 39 41% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
4 Germaine de Randamie 0 12 of 34 35% 19 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:33
Holly Holm 0 16 of 26 61% 32 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
5 Germaine de Randamie 0 16 of 34 47% 37 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:39
Holly Holm 0 17 of 26 65% 42 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Germaine de Randamie 77 of 182 42% 18 of 99 21 of 37 38 of 46 61 of 161 16 of 21 0 of 0
Holly Holm 80 of 150 53% 28 of 88 34 of 40 18 of 22 49 of 113 31 of 36 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Germaine de Randamie 18 of 42 42% 4 of 25 2 of 3 12 of 14 17 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Holly Holm 12 of 25 48% 5 of 16 3 of 4 4 of 5 11 of 22 1 of 2 0 of 1
2 Germaine de Randamie 13 of 30 43% 2 of 17 6 of 7 5 of 6 7 of 23 6 of 7 0 of 0
Holly Holm 19 of 34 55% 8 of 20 10 of 13 1 of 1 9 of 21 10 of 13 0 of 0
3 Germaine de Randamie 18 of 42 42% 3 of 21 4 of 8 11 of 13 18 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Holly Holm 16 of 39 41% 8 of 30 3 of 3 5 of 6 12 of 34 4 of 5 0 of 0
4 Germaine de Randamie 12 of 34 35% 1 of 15 6 of 12 5 of 7 8 of 27 4 of 7 0 of 0
Holly Holm 16 of 26 61% 1 of 7 11 of 13 4 of 6 8 of 18 8 of 8 0 of 0
5 Germaine de Randamie 16 of 34 47% 8 of 21 3 of 7 5 of 6 11 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 0
Holly Holm 17 of 26 65% 6 of 15 7 of 7 4 of 4 9 of 18 8 of 8 0 of 0
WIN vs Anna Elmose
TKO (knee to the body and punches) R1 3:46 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Arlovski · May 08, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Germaine de Randamie 1 18 of 29 62% 23 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Anna Elmose 0 6 of 10 60% 32 of 43 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Germaine de Randamie 1 18 of 29 62% 23 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Anna Elmose 0 6 of 10 60% 32 of 43 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Germaine de Randamie 18 of 29 62% 9 of 19 9 of 10 0 of 0 7 of 16 11 of 13 0 of 0
Anna Elmose 6 of 10 60% 2 of 3 2 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 4 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Germaine de Randamie 18 of 29 62% 9 of 19 9 of 10 0 of 0 7 of 16 11 of 13 0 of 0
Anna Elmose 6 of 10 60% 2 of 3 2 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 4 4 of 6 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R2 2:02 · UFC 185: Pettis vs. dos Anjos · Mar 14, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Germaine de Randamie 0 8 of 60 13% 13 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Larissa Pacheco 0 29 of 84 34% 31 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Germaine de Randamie 0 6 of 43 13% 11 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Larissa Pacheco 0 16 of 57 28% 18 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Germaine de Randamie 0 2 of 17 11% 2 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Larissa Pacheco 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Germaine de Randamie 8 of 60 13% 4 of 48 1 of 4 3 of 8 8 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Larissa Pacheco 29 of 84 34% 26 of 76 0 of 2 3 of 6 28 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Germaine de Randamie 6 of 43 13% 4 of 38 0 of 0 2 of 5 6 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Larissa Pacheco 16 of 57 28% 14 of 50 0 of 2 2 of 5 15 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Germaine de Randamie 2 of 17 11% 0 of 10 1 of 4 1 of 3 2 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Larissa Pacheco 13 of 27 48% 12 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1 13 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julianna Peña - Fight History
LOSS vs Kayla Harrison
Submission R2 4:55 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 0 9 of 30 30% 15 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kayla Harrison 0 30 of 54 55% 59 of 88 2 of 3 66% 1 0 6:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 6 of 17 35% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kayla Harrison 0 8 of 24 33% 24 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:35
2 Julianna Peña 0 3 of 13 23% 6 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kayla Harrison 0 22 of 30 73% 35 of 47 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 9 of 30 30% 8 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 26 0 of 0 4 of 4
Kayla Harrison 30 of 54 55% 17 of 39 9 of 10 4 of 5 15 of 36 6 of 7 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 6 of 17 35% 5 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 4
Kayla Harrison 8 of 24 33% 5 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 21 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Julianna Peña 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kayla Harrison 22 of 30 73% 12 of 19 8 of 9 2 of 2 10 of 15 6 of 7 6 of 8
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Angelo picks Kayla Harrison based on her Olympic judo credentials and physicality. He acknowledges Peña's toughness and ability to survive, but thinks relying on Kayla gassing is not a real strategy. He notes Kayla has fought 25 minutes before and can win the first three rounds. He finds the odds too wide and is hesitant to bet on Kayla.

Odds are too wide; probably won't bet on Kayla.
"Kayla Harrison's going to be the pick. Obviously, the odds are insane. I would say these odds are actually too wide."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Big Brady is confident in Kayla Harrison, citing her ability to take down anyone, including Ketlen Vieira who has great takedown defense. He notes Peña's 23% takedown defense and questions her motivation. He expects Harrison to get the fight to the ground, mix in ground and pound, and eventually submit Peña in the second round. He mentions weight cut concerns but thinks Harrison will dominate if she makes weight.

Harrison by submission in round 2
"I think Harrison gets the fight down to the ground. I think she mixes in some ground and pound. I think she eventually gets a submission here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Connor picks Peña, citing the potential for Harrison to get anxious and gas if Peña pressures her. He notes that Peña's chaotic, relentless style could rattle Harrison, who has shown discomfort in striking exchanges. Connor admits it's a risky pick but thinks the funnier outcome and Peña's ability to exploit Harrison's unease make it plausible.

Odds: Peña +551. Connor thinks the odds are too wide and the fight should be closer.
"I am going to pick Juliana Pena."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Harrison is much better than Peña in every area. She will utilize her physicality, judo, and grappling to get Peña to the ground, wear her out, and ground and pound her for a TKO victory, becoming the new bantamweight champion.

win by TKO
"Look for Harrison to utilize her physicality, her judo, her grappling to eventually get Pena to the ground, wear her out and eventually ground and pound her on route to a TKO victory and new bantamweight champion Kayla Harrison."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison by decision, citing her physicality and grappling advantage. He criticizes Peña's standup as abysmal and notes Harrison's strength will be too much. He acknowledges Harrison's standup is not great but believes she will out-grapple Peña. He thinks Peña is tough but difficult to finish, so he predicts a decision win. He notes the odds of -600 are too high, suggesting value on Peña by submission.

Odds comment: Harrison should be -300, not -600. Value on Peña by submission or finish. Finish prediction: decision win.
"I'm going to go with Kayla Harrison getting this one done. Decision win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Zane picks Kayla Harrison, reasoning that Peña's takedown defense is poor and Harrison's judo and top control should be enough to dominate. He acknowledges Harrison's striking is awkward and she can panic, but believes Peña's wild aggression will play into Harrison's strengths. Zane notes the odds are too wide and the fight should be closer to -200.

Odds: Harrison -658, Peña +551. Zane thinks the odds are too wide, should be around -200.
"I have to still pick Harrison here."
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 1 92 of 317 29% 112 of 345 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Raquel Pennington 0 92 of 260 35% 123 of 308 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 17 of 60 28% 17 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 25 of 59 42% 25 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Julianna Peña 0 6 of 24 25% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 6 of 16 37% 18 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:00
3 Julianna Peña 0 8 of 34 23% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 18 of 33 54% 35 of 53 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:20
4 Julianna Peña 1 26 of 84 30% 26 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Raquel Pennington 0 16 of 67 23% 18 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
5 Julianna Peña 0 35 of 115 30% 35 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Raquel Pennington 0 27 of 85 31% 27 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 92 of 317 29% 57 of 277 29 of 33 6 of 7 88 of 308 4 of 6 0 of 3
Raquel Pennington 92 of 260 35% 82 of 248 9 of 11 1 of 1 90 of 256 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 17 of 60 28% 12 of 53 3 of 4 2 of 3 17 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 25 of 59 42% 24 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Julianna Peña 6 of 24 25% 2 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Julianna Peña 8 of 34 23% 5 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 18 of 33 54% 14 of 28 3 of 4 1 of 1 16 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Julianna Peña 26 of 84 30% 12 of 69 12 of 13 2 of 2 25 of 80 1 of 1 0 of 3
Raquel Pennington 16 of 67 23% 14 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Julianna Peña 35 of 115 30% 26 of 105 8 of 9 1 of 1 34 of 113 1 of 2 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 27 of 85 31% 24 of 81 3 of 4 0 of 0 27 of 84 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington to win by grinding against the cage, using her technical striking and control. He notes Julianna Peña is coming off a two-year layoff and a severe beating, which often leads to poor performances. He believes Pennington's durability and preparation at elevation will be key, and that Peña's chaotic style won't be enough. He also mentions that Pennington's wife Tisha Torres fights earlier, which could affect her mentally if Tisha loses.

"Rocko Pennington is the pick and I'm fairly confident that she gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her recent activity and impressive wins over Macy Chiasson, Ketlen Vieira, and Mayra Bueno Silva. He notes Peña has been inactive for two years and lost to Amanda Nunes. He believes Pennington is the better striker and has strong clinch work, and expects her to win a decision.

"I got to go Pennington here and I think Pennington is going to win this fight and win it probably probably by decision Pennington Pennington by decision more active better fighter give me Pennington"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Cody picks Pennington due to Peña's two-year layoff, age, and tendency to fatigue. He highlights Pennington's durability, volume striking, and ability to fight five rounds. He expects Pennington to pressure Peña against the cage and win a decision.

Raquel Pennington by decision
"I will take Ral Pennington"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Connor picks Pennington, but hesitantly. He thinks Pennington's crafty boxing and durability will allow her to survive Peña's initial onslaught and win rounds in the clinch. He notes that Pennington is comfortable in long clinches and can land knees and front headlock chokes. However, he acknowledges Peña's athleticism and aggression make it a tough fight.

Same odds commentary.
"I think she is going to end up in a lot of long clinches with rocky which is a position where rocky is very comfortable even against stronger women."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Vreeland picks Raquel Pennington. He cites multiple factors: Pennington trains at elevation and has amazing cardio, while Peña has not fought since July 2022 and has a history of poor preparation for elevation. Vreeland notes that Pennington's style is exhausting to fight, as seen in her win over Mayra Bueno Silva. He also points out that Pennington's boxing looked good in her last fight, while Peña's boxing looked terrible with wild swings. He believes Pennington will grind out a win, likely by decision or late TKO.

Pennington by TKO +2000
"I'm going Raquel Pennington yes sir"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Raquel Pennington, citing her superior boxing and clinch work. He believes Pennington can keep the fight standing and piece up Peña, possibly even choking her out if Peña shoots a sloppy takedown. He is not confident in Peña's evolution since her loss to Amanda Nunes and thinks Pennington's takedown defense will be key.

"I do lean Pennington man if she can keep this fight standing she's gonna box this girl up even piece her up in the clinch with knees and elbows"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Jeff Fox picks Raquel Pennington. He agrees with Vreeland on the elevation advantage and Peña's layoff. He notes that Pennington is a tough out, especially if Peña doesn't properly prepare. Fox thinks Pennington will grind out a win, though it may not be pretty.

Pennington by decision +110
"I'm in on all of that as well Raquel Pennington she's a tough out especially if you're not going to properly prepare for it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Julianna Peña

The host thinks Peña is the overall better fighter and that her wrestling advantage will nullify Pennington's game. He believes people are overlooking Peña due to her loss to Amanda Nunes, but notes Pennington is nowhere near Nunes's level. He expects Peña to lean on her wrestling and grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes.

submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes
"look for Peña to go out there lean on her wrestling lean on her grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Peña's two-year layoff and Pennington's cardio advantage. He notes Pennington's recent procedure as a minor concern but believes her durability and wrestling will carry her to a decision win.

Raquel Pennington by decision
"Pennington probably Pennington by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Julianna Peña, citing Peña's long layoff (over two years) and inactivity. He notes Pennington trains at altitude and has a cage control game. He acknowledges Peña's win over Nunes but questions her deserving a title shot. He is not confident, calling it a tough pick, but goes with Pennington due to Peña's ring rust.

"I'm going to go Raquel Pennington you guys Juliana Pena hasn't been in she's 10 and five fighting for she's 35 years old who are you like what are you doing go away"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Zane picks Peña, arguing that Pennington is slow-footed and will get stuck on the cage, allowing Peña to impose her physicality and wrestling. He believes Peña's aggression and strength will overwhelm Pennington, despite Pennington's improved boxing and durability. Zane thinks Peña will win the belt and set up a fight with Kayla Harrison.

Peña opened at +145, currently +147. Pennington opened at -185, now -166.
"So i'm just i'm gonna take penia i'm gonna take penia to go out and be her absolute most annoying self and win this belt and give an indecipherable interview afterward."
LOSS vs Amanda Nunes
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–44, 50–43) R5 5:00 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 0 60 of 154 38% 130 of 239 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 3 85 of 152 55% 126 of 201 6 of 8 75% 1 0 11:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 0 21 of 51 41% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 25 of 47 53% 25 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Amanda Nunes 0 25 of 66 37% 31 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 3 19 of 48 39% 24 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
3 Amanda Nunes 0 6 of 21 28% 31 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 14 of 23 60% 23 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:02
4 Amanda Nunes 0 4 of 10 40% 33 of 42 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 16 of 20 80% 34 of 40 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:54
5 Amanda Nunes 0 4 of 6 66% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 11 of 14 78% 20 of 26 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 60 of 154 38% 54 of 144 6 of 10 0 of 0 59 of 151 1 of 3 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 85 of 152 55% 67 of 128 10 of 14 8 of 10 57 of 117 0 of 1 28 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 21 of 51 41% 20 of 49 1 of 2 0 of 0 21 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 25 of 47 53% 17 of 37 3 of 3 5 of 7 25 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Nunes 25 of 66 37% 21 of 59 4 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 19 of 48 39% 13 of 40 4 of 6 2 of 2 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Amanda Nunes 6 of 21 28% 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 14 of 23 60% 12 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 13 0 of 1 7 of 9
4 Amanda Nunes 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 16 of 20 80% 15 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 14
5 Amanda Nunes 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 11 of 14 78% 10 of 12 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 10
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Big Brady picks Amanda Nunes to win by first-round submission. He believes Nunes is better everywhere and that the first fight was a one-off due to injury or motivation issues. He expects Nunes to finish early, but if it extends, he has concerns about her cardio. He is not betting this fight.

"i'm going to take nunes here... i'll say nunez first round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Cody believes Peña is the right pick because she already exposed Nunes' cardio and quit rate. He notes Nunes has suspect cardio, has shown red flags in fights against Germaine de Randamie and Felicia Spencer, and may be unmotivated after becoming a multi-millionaire and mother. He also points out that Peña is durable, pressures well, and the odds (+245) are too juicy to pass up given she just choked Nunes out. He expects Peña to win again, possibly taking a bit longer this time.

Nunes under 2 takedowns on PrizePicks; odds are too juicy for Peña at +245
"i just think that the pace at some point will cause amanda to quit... the odds are just way too juicy to look away here's a girl that just choked her out in the second round standing feels like crap …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Daniel argues that Julianna Peña's ability to stand up to the bully and absorb Nunes' power is the key factor. He notes that Peña's iron jaw and willpower broke Nunes mentally in the first fight, causing her to tap to a choke that wasn't locked in. He believes Nunes has a history of struggling when opponents don't back down, citing the Cat Zingano fight and the Valentina Shevchenko fights. He acknowledges Nunes could win via calf kicks or a submission, but he trusts Peña's heart and durability. He also points out that long-reigning champions rarely regain their belt in immediate rematches, citing a 11-2 record for the new champion.

1 unit bet at +245; mentions that Peña could win by ground and pound from full mount this time
"I'm taking Juliana Peña. I only put one unit on it, um I think I got it plus 245."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Amanda Nunes

Preet leans Nunes to win but won't lay -260; instead he likes the over 2.5 rounds at +100. He expects a more cautious, methodical fight that goes into the later rounds, noting that rematches of first-round finishes often go the distance. He thinks Nunes will be more disciplined and use leg kicks and combinations, but Peña's durability and pressure could extend the fight.

over 2.5 rounds +100
"the spot that i think that is being overlooked here is the the over uh over one and a half minus 190 not bad but even the over two and a half plus 100"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Paul picks Peña as well, citing the narrative that Nunes emptied her tank early in the first fight and quit. He thinks Nunes can win a striking match if she paces herself, but he's terrified to bet the fight. He notes that Peña is super durable and that the odds (+245) are attractive. He compares it to Ronda Rousey's loss to Holly Holm, where people still believed in Rousey, but here Peña already beat Nunes.

Nunes under 2 takedowns on PrizePicks; odds are too juicy for Peña at +245
"i'll pick pena if i was going to bet but like i'm terrified to bet this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Julianna Peña

The MMA Guru predicts Julianna Peña wins by submission (rear-naked choke) in round four. He expects Nunes to win the first two rounds with takedowns and jabs, but Peña will threaten submissions throughout. In round four, Peña times a takedown, passes to half guard, takes the back, and chokes Nunes out.

submission in round 4
"juliana pena choked her around on round four"
WIN vs Amanda Nunes
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:26 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 0 46 of 99 46% 58 of 112 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:35
Amanda Nunes 0 79 of 135 58% 90 of 147 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 10 of 14 71% 22 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:35
Amanda Nunes 0 5 of 20 25% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Julianna Peña 0 36 of 85 42% 36 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Nunes 0 74 of 115 64% 74 of 115 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 46 of 99 46% 36 of 85 1 of 3 9 of 11 44 of 97 0 of 0 2 of 2
Amanda Nunes 79 of 135 58% 69 of 122 10 of 13 0 of 0 78 of 134 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 10 of 14 71% 4 of 7 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 12 0 of 0 2 of 2
Amanda Nunes 5 of 20 25% 5 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Julianna Peña 36 of 85 42% 32 of 78 0 of 1 4 of 6 36 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Nunes 74 of 115 64% 64 of 103 10 of 12 0 of 0 73 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Big Brady is very confident in Amanda Nunes winning early, likely by first-round submission. He notes that Nunes is the GOAT and has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, and cardio. Peña has poor takedown defense (23%) and was submitted by GDR, which is concerning. Nunes can finish by knockout or submission, and Brady expects a quick finish.

Nunes by submission in round 1
"i think amanda nunez is going to get it done i think she's going to get it done early very early in the first round whether it's a first round knockout or a first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Daniel Levi picks Amanda Nunes to win by submission in the first round. He notes that Peña's striking is sloppy and she has been submitted in two of her last four fights. Levi believes Nunes will establish her jab and calf kicks, and when Peña shoots a sloppy takedown, Nunes will sprawl and lock in a d'arce or anaconda choke. He thinks Peña's trash talk will motivate Nunes to make a statement.

submission, first round, d'arce or anaconda choke
"i think that amanda nunes is going to sprawl on her and i'm thinking a darcer anaconda choke finish in the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Nunes is the far superior fighter and should win, but the method is uncertain. Peña will try to grapple, which could slow the fight and push it past 1.5 rounds. Nunes has KO power, but Peña's durability and grappling could extend the fight. The over 1.5 rounds is a lean, but Nunes inside the distance is the most likely outcome.

over 1.5 rounds, Nunes inside the distance
"i'm going nunez nunes by let's say third round tko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Nunes to win by first-round TKO, dismissing Julianna Peña's chances. He criticizes Peña's striking technique and notes she was submitted by a standing guillotine against Jermaine de Randamie. He believes Nunes is on a different level in strength and skill.

first-round TKO
"i'm gonna go with amanda nunez here she's on a different level she's too strong she's too manly she's too lesbian juliana pena is too heterosexual i'm going with amanda nunez by tko in the first round"
WIN vs Sara McMann
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 3:39 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 0 38 of 76 50% 140 of 192 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:55
Sara McMann 0 21 of 54 38% 28 of 63 3 of 3 100% 0 0 7:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 5 of 20 25% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sara McMann 0 12 of 30 40% 15 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:58
2 Julianna Peña 0 13 of 29 44% 70 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Sara McMann 0 8 of 17 47% 11 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:11
3 Julianna Peña 0 20 of 27 74% 33 of 42 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:47
Sara McMann 0 1 of 7 14% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 38 of 76 50% 27 of 65 11 of 11 0 of 0 20 of 57 10 of 10 8 of 9
Sara McMann 21 of 54 38% 10 of 39 7 of 10 4 of 5 12 of 43 6 of 6 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 5 of 20 25% 5 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sara McMann 12 of 30 40% 7 of 23 3 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Julianna Peña 13 of 29 44% 7 of 23 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 23 6 of 6 0 of 0
Sara McMann 8 of 17 47% 3 of 10 3 of 4 2 of 3 2 of 9 4 of 4 2 of 4
3 Julianna Peña 20 of 27 74% 15 of 22 5 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 14 4 of 4 8 of 9
Sara McMann 1 of 7 14% 0 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sara McMann

Big Brady picks Sara McMann by decision, citing her wrestling advantage and Peña's poor takedown defense (28%). He notes McMann lands 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes with 60% accuracy. He expects McMann to control Peña on the ground for at least two rounds. He is not confident enough to bet but leans towards McMann.

"give me sarah mcmahon 29 28 maybe 30 27"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Sara McMann

Daniel Levi picks Sara McMann, highlighting her superior wrestling and power. He criticizes Julianna Peña's poor takedown defense (28%) and lack of submissions. Levi believes McMann can dominate with top control and avoid Peña's comeback attempts, as long as she stays focused for 15 minutes.

"i'll go with sarah just stay in it for 15 straight minutes keep your head on straight and you win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Sara McMann

McMann is the better wrestler and should be able to get takedowns and control Peña on the ground. Peña has poor takedown defense and her jiu-jitsu off her back is not great. However, McMann is 40 years old and has cardio issues, which is a concern. I think McMann grinds out a decision, but I'm not confident enough to bet on her.

"I'm going with Sara McMann to win this fight via decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Sara McMann

The MMA Guru picks Sara McMann to win by controlling Peña on the ground with top control. He criticizes Peña's submission game, noting she hasn't submitted anyone of note and has been submitted herself. He believes McMann's wrestling and top control will be effective, especially since women's fights are not stood up quickly. He predicts a 30-27 decision via ground control.

30-27 unanimous decision, ground control
"i'm going to go sarah mcmahon smushing her on the ground in half guard with top control the entire round landing total strikes winning herself to fight that way"
Technical Submission (guillotine choke) R3 3:25 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Germaine de Randamie 0 37 of 91 40% 57 of 119 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:48
Julianna Peña 0 27 of 91 29% 58 of 125 3 of 6 50% 0 0 5:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Germaine de Randamie 0 20 of 58 34% 23 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 8 of 43 18% 12 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
2 Germaine de Randamie 0 6 of 9 66% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:48
Julianna Peña 0 11 of 23 47% 30 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:41
3 Germaine de Randamie 0 11 of 24 45% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 8 of 25 32% 16 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Germaine de Randamie 37 of 91 40% 32 of 86 5 of 5 0 of 0 32 of 84 4 of 6 1 of 1
Julianna Peña 27 of 91 29% 19 of 79 7 of 10 1 of 2 18 of 75 2 of 2 7 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Germaine de Randamie 20 of 58 34% 18 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0 20 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 8 of 43 18% 7 of 39 0 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Germaine de Randamie 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 1 of 2 1 of 1
Julianna Peña 11 of 23 47% 6 of 17 5 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 14
3 Germaine de Randamie 11 of 24 45% 8 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 8 of 25 32% 6 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Big Brady leans towards Germaine de Randamie to win by decision. He notes the striking discrepancy favors de Randamie, and while Peña's path is takedowns, he thinks de Randamie can stop them. He is worried about cage control but expects the fight to stay on the feet.

"give me drain derandomy to win this fight by uh by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Daniel picks de Randamie, emphasizing the massive striking gap and Peña's ugly stand-up. He believes de Randamie will clip Peña coming in and possibly knock her out, similar to the Aspen Ladd fight. He acknowledges concern if Peña gets on top but thinks de Randamie's takedown defense has improved and she will pull the trigger.

de Randamie by knockout; mentions the striking gap is bigger than the grappling gap; notes Peña's horrendous stand-up
"i'm gonna roll with jermaine duran maybe a knockout in this spot it kind of reminds me of the aspen lad fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

The host picks Peña as the underdog, believing her wrestling and trip takedowns will be effective against de Randamie's takedown defense. He notes that de Randamie has struggled against grapplers like Nunes and that Peña's style is similar. He predicts a decision win for Peña and thinks the line should be closer to -120.

"i love juliana pena in this situation i'm kind of surprised at the amount of love that's coming in on jermaine duranomy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

The Guru picks Germaine de Randamie, believing she can survive on the ground and will keep the fight standing to beat Peña with leg kicks and eventually finish by TKO. He notes Peña couldn't submit Nico Montano and thinks de Randamie is too big and dangerous.

Prediction: TKO
"i'm going to go to jeremy i think she can survive on the ground and i think she'll keep it standing and beat up juliana pena on the feet with some brutal leg kicks eventually finishing by tko"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: de Randamie vs. Ladd · Jul 13, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 0 45 of 90 50% 108 of 158 2 of 4 50% 0 0 4:36
Nicco Montaño 0 38 of 79 48% 59 of 103 3 of 5 60% 0 0 6:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 9 of 19 47% 14 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nicco Montaño 0 11 of 25 44% 25 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:07
2 Julianna Peña 0 16 of 27 59% 42 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:17
Nicco Montaño 0 13 of 22 59% 17 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:23
3 Julianna Peña 0 20 of 44 45% 52 of 78 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:19
Nicco Montaño 0 14 of 32 43% 17 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 45 of 90 50% 32 of 73 12 of 14 1 of 3 21 of 64 8 of 9 16 of 17
Nicco Montaño 38 of 79 48% 13 of 50 10 of 10 15 of 19 26 of 57 6 of 11 6 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 9 of 19 47% 4 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 12 6 of 7 0 of 0
Nicco Montaño 11 of 25 44% 5 of 16 1 of 1 5 of 8 5 of 14 2 of 5 4 of 6
2 Julianna Peña 16 of 27 59% 13 of 22 2 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 11 2 of 2 13 of 14
Nicco Montaño 13 of 22 59% 3 of 11 2 of 2 8 of 9 7 of 12 4 of 5 2 of 5
3 Julianna Peña 20 of 44 45% 15 of 38 5 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 41 0 of 0 3 of 3
Nicco Montaño 14 of 32 43% 5 of 23 7 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Submission (armbar) R2 4:29 · UFC on Fox: Shevchenko vs. Pena · Jan 28, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 13 of 17 76% 46 of 51 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:42
Julianna Peña 0 27 of 35 77% 78 of 99 1 of 5 20% 0 0 6:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 8 of 12 66% 25 of 29 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:42
Julianna Peña 0 20 of 24 83% 46 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:53
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 5 of 5 100% 21 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 7 of 11 63% 32 of 46 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 13 of 17 76% 5 of 9 7 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 4 7 of 7 5 of 6
Julianna Peña 27 of 35 77% 2 of 5 22 of 27 3 of 3 0 of 2 25 of 30 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 8 of 12 66% 5 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 3 3 of 3 5 of 6
Julianna Peña 20 of 24 83% 0 of 0 17 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 24 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 4 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 7 of 11 63% 2 of 5 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 2 5 of 6 2 of 3
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Big Brady leans towards Germaine de Randamie to win by decision. He notes the striking discrepancy favors de Randamie, and while Peña's path is takedowns, he thinks de Randamie can stop them. He is worried about cage control but expects the fight to stay on the feet.

"give me drain derandomy to win this fight by uh by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Daniel picks de Randamie, emphasizing the massive striking gap and Peña's ugly stand-up. He believes de Randamie will clip Peña coming in and possibly knock her out, similar to the Aspen Ladd fight. He acknowledges concern if Peña gets on top but thinks de Randamie's takedown defense has improved and she will pull the trigger.

de Randamie by knockout; mentions the striking gap is bigger than the grappling gap; notes Peña's horrendous stand-up
"i'm gonna roll with jermaine duran maybe a knockout in this spot it kind of reminds me of the aspen lad fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

The host picks Peña as the underdog, believing her wrestling and trip takedowns will be effective against de Randamie's takedown defense. He notes that de Randamie has struggled against grapplers like Nunes and that Peña's style is similar. He predicts a decision win for Peña and thinks the line should be closer to -120.

"i love juliana pena in this situation i'm kind of surprised at the amount of love that's coming in on jermaine duranomy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

The Guru picks Germaine de Randamie, believing she can survive on the ground and will keep the fight standing to beat Peña with leg kicks and eventually finish by TKO. He notes Peña couldn't submit Nico Montano and thinks de Randamie is too big and dangerous.

Prediction: TKO
"i'm going to go to jeremy i think she can survive on the ground and i think she'll keep it standing and beat up juliana pena on the feet with some brutal leg kicks eventually finishing by tko"