Fight card

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2

April 06, 2024 UFC Apex Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S.
Brendan Allen

Brendan Allen W

26-7
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00
Fight 1 VS Middleweight Completed

Brendan Allen

Moneyline
BetWay -210
KO/TKO
BetRivers +750
Submission
BetRivers +175
Decision
FanDuel +300

Chris Curtis

Moneyline
BetMGM +190
KO/TKO
BetRivers +325
Submission
DraftKings +2800
Decision
FanDuel +750
Fighter Stats

Brendan Allen

Age30
Height6' 2"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Chris Curtis

Age38
Height5' 10"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Brendan Allen

3.59SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.62SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
1.56TD Avg
42.0%TD Acc.
56.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Chris Curtis

5.52SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
5.75SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis because he already knocked out Brendan Allen in under two minutes in their first fight. He believes Allen's recent win streak is impressive but that he can only win by getting the fight to the ground, which is very difficult against Curtis's takedown defense. Angelo also notes that Curtis on short notice may be better because he doesn't overthink. He mentions that underdogs have won 63% of main events in 2024 and expects that trend to continue.

underdogs have won 63% of main events in 2024
"I got to go Chris here... Chris Curtis is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, noting that he doesn't understand why Allen is a 2-to-1 favorite. He highlights Curtis's elite takedown defense, durability, and cardio, and believes the fight will take place on the feet, where Curtis is more defensively sound and durable. He thinks Allen is hitable and has been knocked out before, and predicts Curtis will find Allen's chin over 25 minutes and win by third-round knockout.

win by third round knockout
"I'm taking Chris Curtis here I'm taking Chris Curtis to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Allen's wins have come against one-dimensional grapplers, while Curtis is a sprawl-and-brawl boxer who works the body and legs. He points out that Curtis has looked midling lately but still has the style to beat Allen. Cody also highlights that Curtis knows Allen from sparring and took the first fight on short notice, and that the five-round fight favors Curtis's power and cardio. He expects Curtis to win by TKO again.

likely by TKO
"I think asman does it again... Chris Curtis likely by TKO"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Daniel Vreeland picks Brendan Allen but is hesitant due to Allen's ego and past knockout loss to Curtis. He notes Allen has improved since their first fight, with a six-fight win streak and better grappling as a black belt. However, he worries Allen might get distracted by Sean Strickland's trash talk and engage in pocket exchanges where Curtis excels. Vreeland believes Allen has more paths to victory if he fights smart, using kicks and distance to avoid brawling, and can win by volume or submission if he gets top control.

"I'm gonna go Brendan Allen but I'd be remissed if I left this out... if Brennan's gonna fight with his ego... I'd move in on a Chris Curtis live bet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Curtis has the striking advantage and an iron chin. Allen's wrestling isn't good enough to get Curtis down consistently. In the pocket, Curtis will land the bigger shots and likely knock Allen out again, as he did in their first fight. The line is too wide for Allen.

Curtis by KO (around +250)
"I'm going to go with Curtis here you know rematches normally don't always go the same as the first fight but considering the stylistic Clash that we have here and some of the shortcomings that Allen has with …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul thinks Chris Curtis is a bad matchup for Brendan Allen again. He notes Allen has improved but Curtis is a brick wall with solid boxing, body work, and five-round cardio. Paul believes Curtis's sprawl-and-brawl style will stifle Allen's takedowns and that Curtis will eventually land his power, likely by TKO. He also mentions Curtis took the fight on short notice last time and still won, and that the five-round distance favors Curtis's pressure.

likely by TKO
"I still think that this is a bad match up for Brennan Allen... Chris Curtis likely by TKO"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

The host provides a detailed breakdown, noting Allen was doing well in the first fight before getting caught. He highlights Allen's improved offensive grappling (submitting Paul Craig, holding his own against Jacob Malkoun) and striking. He sees Curtis regressing, losing power, and taking the fight on short notice. He predicts Allen will win by submission in the first round via rear-naked choke, using body kicks to set up takedowns and chain wrestling to take Curtis' back.

submission win predicted, first round rear-naked choke
"I'm going to say that he gets this one done by submission and I'm going to say that he gets it done in the first round actually I'm going to say first round rear naked choke for Brendan …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Damon Jackson

Damon Jackson W

23-8-1
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 2 VS Catchweight (147.5 lb) Completed

Damon Jackson

Moneyline
Caesars +165
KO/TKO
BetWay +1000
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
BetRivers +540

Alexander Hernandez

Moneyline
BetWay -180
KO/TKO
BetWay +130
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
FanDuel +440
Fighter Stats

Damon Jackson

Age37
Height5' 11"
Reach71.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Alexander Hernandez

Age33
Height5' 9"
Reach72.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Damon Jackson

2.96SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
3.47SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
2.3TD Avg
32.0%TD Acc.
37.0%TD Def.
1.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Alexander Hernandez

4.31SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
4.5SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
1.14TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
73.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez but with very low confidence. He acknowledges Hernandez is the better overall fighter and athlete, but he hates the weight cut to 145 lbs, which he thinks makes Hernandez slower, chinny, and potentially cardio-compromised. He notes that Damon Jackson is the type of grappler who can spoil plans and slow the pace. Angelo says he is only picking Hernandez because he is better everywhere except BJJ, but he hates the weight cut.

"very low pick on Alexander Hernandez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Hernandez has the tools to win, including takedown defense to stuff Jackson's shots, and is the much better striker. He questions Jackson's chin and believes Hernandez will knock him out early. However, he acknowledges that if the fight reaches the second round, Hernandez tends to slow down and get broken.

win by first round KO
"Hernandez ko1 for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is wary of betting him at -210. He notes Hernandez's explosive first round and power, but his cardio fades after 7.5 minutes. Cody thinks Hernandez likely disposes of Jackson in the first round, but if it goes longer, Jackson's craftiness and submission threat could flip the fight. He calls it a dodgy proposition.

"Alexander Hernandez gets the job done and takes him out in the first seven and a half minutes... but it's a dodgy proposition"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Damon Jackson to upset Alexander Hernandez. He argues Hernandez is a front-runner who fades after round one, citing examples like the Billy Quarantillo fight where Jackson dragged him into deep waters. Vreeland believes Jackson's awkward length and grappling can neutralize Hernandez's early explosiveness, and if the fight goes past the first round, Jackson will take over. He notes Hernandez's recent win over Bill Algeo was unimpressive because Algeo is not a finishing threat.

"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson here for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez is faster, more explosive, and has more power. Jackson will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. Hernandez can land big shots and likely knock Jackson out. The under 2.5 rounds is a good play as the fight should end early.

Hernandez by KO; under 2.5 rounds
"I expect that to produce a Hernandez knockout but what I'm going to be looking to hone in on is the under two and a half which isus 170 a little bit chalky"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez but is hesitant because Hernandez is inconsistent. He likes Hernandez's athleticism, speed, strength, and wrestling, and thinks he can ground-and-pound Jackson. However, he worries about Hernandez's cardio and confidence, noting that he falls off after the first round. Paul sees a path where Hernandez finishes Jackson early, but if it goes longer, Jackson's BJJ and durability could cause problems.

"I am going with Alexander Hernandez... he just seems maybe not the better fighter but just the better athlete"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host struggles with this pick, noting Jackson's surprising wins (e.g., over Jim Miller) but criticizes his lack of punching conviction. He picks Hernandez as the younger, more explosive fighter with reach and good initial takedown defense. He envisions Hernandez starting fast and clipping Jackson, though he admits Jackson could lay on him. He ultimately goes with Hernandez, calling Jackson 'Mega Mind' and hoping to see him removed from the UFC.

"I think I'm going to go with the younger guy in Alexander Hernandez here he's got reach he has got good initial takedown defense"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Chepe Mariscal

Chepe Mariscal W

18-7
Decision (split) (29–28, 27–30, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 3 VS Featherweight Completed

Chepe Mariscal

Moneyline
FanDuel +126
KO/TKO
FanDuel +800
Submission
BetWay +1800
Decision
FanDuel +195

Morgan Charrière

Moneyline
BetRivers -129
KO/TKO
BetRivers +320
Submission
FanDuel +1400
Decision
BetWay +240
Fighter Stats

Chepe Mariscal

Age33
Height5' 7"
Reach69.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Morgan Charrière

Age30
Height5' 8"
Reach69"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Chepe Mariscal

4.14SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
2.66SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
2.34TD Avg
39.0%TD Acc.
59.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Morgan Charrière

4.02SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
4.51SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
2.06TD Avg
46.0%TD Acc.
83.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he has been an underdog in all three UFC fights and is 2-0, showing he is tough, can pressure, and wrestle. He believes Chepe will make the fight ugly and grind out Morgan Charrière. Angelo notes that Chepe is currently a +145 dog and expects the line to move, so he plans to bet on Chepe soon. He mentions Chepe's BJJ championship, kickboxing credentials, and collegiate wrestling as reasons for his confidence.

Angelo plans to bet on Chepe at +145, watching line movement; expects Chepe to become favorite
"I like Chepe to make this fight ugly and grind out Morgan Charrière"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Big Brady picks Morgan Charrière to win by decision. He notes that Charrière is good everywhere, a really good striker and wrestler with vicious ground and pound. He acknowledges that Mariscal is tough and has the dog in him, but thinks Charrière has more ways to win and will be slightly better wherever the fight goes. He expects a back-and-forth war that goes to a split decision.

"I'll take sh for the win but I think the line is about accurate probably probably should be about to pick him here Sher decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Chepe has fought tougher competition outside the UFC, including Gregor Gillespie and Bryce Mitchell. He highlights Chepe's constant work rate, durability, and takedown game. Cody thinks Charrière's low output and tendency to fight close decisions make him a bad favorite, and that Chepe's pressure will earn him the win.

"I agree with you on all the takes there... he'll be the pick for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Daniel Vreeland picks Chepe Mariscal, citing his toughness and Judo background. He notes Morgan Charrière is more athletic and powerful but has low output and close decisions against lesser competition. Vreeland points out Mariscal's win over Jack Jenkins was dominant, not a fluke injury, and his regional wins over UFC-level fighters like Yousef Zalal and Pat Sabatini. He expects a close fight but favors Mariscal's forward pressure and willingness to exchange.

"I'm going to pick Chepe here for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Mariscal is more battle-tested with higher output and volume. Charrière is more hype than talent, with cardio issues and a low pace. Mariscal can mix in grappling and striking, and his durability has held up. He should outwork Charrière and win by decision, with a possible late stoppage.

Mariscal by decision; sprinkle Mariscal round 3 at +2200
"I'm going to go marcow and marcow by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul is confident in Chepe Mariscal at plus money. He criticizes Charrière's low-volume, counter-heavy style and notes his record is full of split decisions. Chepe is aggressive, has good durability, cardio from training at altitude, and mixes in takedowns. Paul believes Chepe's constant work rate will overwhelm Charrière, especially in the Apex where judges favor damage and volume.

"I'm like in chpe I got some plus money plays on him already... if you're going to give me plus money on chpe mariscal I think he's got just the volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The host expresses personal dislike for Charrière due to UFC signing him over Paul Hughes and Jordan Vucenic, but acknowledges Charrière is good. He notes Charrière's power, dangerous striking, great kicks, finishing instincts, and strong takedown defense. He predicts Charrière will smoke Mariscal by TKO, despite Mariscal's scrappy win over Trevor Peek.

TKO win predicted
"I think he'll smoke shet mariscal so I'm going to go with him by TKO"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Ignacio Bahamondes

Ignacio Bahamondes W

17-7
KO (head kick) R1 3:34
Fight 4 VS Lightweight Completed

Ignacio Bahamondes

Moneyline
BetMGM -300
KO/TKO
BetRivers +200
Submission
BetRivers +390
Decision
BetRivers +275

Christos Giagos

Moneyline
Caesars +280
KO/TKO
FanDuel +850
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
BetRivers +750
Fighter Stats

Ignacio Bahamondes

Age28
Height6' 3"
Reach75.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Christos Giagos

Age36
Height5' 10"
Reach71.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Ignacio Bahamondes

5.99SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
4.07SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
70.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Christos Giagos

3.03SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
3.21SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
2.84TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
52.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Angelo leans Ignacio Bahamondes because he believes Bahamondes' last loss was more about how good Ludovit Klein is rather than Bahamondes being bad. He acknowledges that Bahamondes has good takedown defense (85%) but that it failed in his last fight. He thinks Christos Giagos could win if he gets takedowns, but Angelo is on the Bahamondes side, though he admits he will be biting his nails over takedowns.

"I'm on the Bahamondes side... Ignacio is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Big Brady picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by second-round submission. He notes that Giagos will likely have early success with takedowns and wrestling, but will fade as the fight goes on due to poor cardio. Bahamondes will grow into the fight and finish Giagos in the second round.

win by second round submission
"give me bonus to win this fight I'll say second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Cody agrees, pointing to Giagos's pattern of fading after round 1, as seen in the Zellhuber fight. He notes Bahamondes's length and reach may make it hard for Giagos to land early, and that Bahamondes has never been knocked out. Cody thinks Bahamondes will take control as the fight goes on, and that Giagos's takedown threat diminishes as he tires.

live bet on Bahamondes in round 2
"I'm with you I think the longer that this fight plays out B mes will take control"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Ignacio Bahamondes, praising his stance switching, range, and opportunistic submissions. He dismisses Bahamondes' losses to Melsik Baghdasaryan and Ludovit Klein as forgivable, noting Klein's suspicious transformation. Vreeland sees Christos Giagos as an athletic journeyman who fades after the first round, lacking depth beyond spamming hooks. He expects Bahamondes to frustrate Giagos with range and dominate past round one, possibly by finish.

"I expect Ignacio Bahamondes to really frustrate Christos with his range and I don't know if it's gonna be a finish or not but I do expect dominance past round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Bahamondes is a talented striker with nasty Muay Thai and improving grappling. Giagos has early finishing power but fades if he doesn't get the finish. Bahamondes can weather the early storm, then take over in later rounds with his striking and cardio. Expect a TKO in the second or third round.

Bahamondes round 3 TKO; hedge with Giagos round 1 KO at +1700
"I'm going to go baham mundez third round uh TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Paul is confident in Bahamondes, citing his length, chin, cardio, and striking. He notes Giagos is explosive but fades after 6-7 minutes, and that Bahamondes's takedown defense and ability to get up will neutralize Giagos's early wrestling. Paul expects Bahamondes to take over in rounds 2 and 3, possibly by TKO. He also suggests live betting Bahamondes if he loses the first round.

by TKO, under 2.5 rounds, live market on Bahamondes if he loses round 1
"baham mandz wins this fight... you play it right now on a parlay... or you just hit that baham Manz by TKO maybe that under two and a half"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

The host dismisses Giagos as a 'pensioner killer' with wins over older fighters like Ricky Glenn, Soroano, and Carlton Minus. He notes Bahamondes' lanky frame (6'2" at lightweight) and recent wins over Roosevelt Roberts, Ronu, and Trey Ogden. He predicts Bahamondes will sleep Giagos, ignoring technique and focusing on size advantage.

"I'm going to go with ignasio bahamondes over Christos kagos ... this bully is about to get [ __ ] slept"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Charlie Campbell

Charlie Campbell W

9-3
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 5 VS Lightweight Completed

Charlie Campbell

Moneyline
Caesars -150
KO/TKO
BetRivers +163
Submission
FanDuel +600
Decision
DraftKings +600

Trevor Peek

Moneyline
BetMGM +145
KO/TKO
FanDuel +230
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
BetMGM +1000
Fighter Stats

Charlie Campbell

Age30
Height6' 0"
Reach72.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Trevor Peek

Age31
Height5' 9"
Reach70.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Charlie Campbell

5.23SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
4.17SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
2.45TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Trevor Peek

4.39SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.88SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
1.45TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
52.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Angelo picks Trevor Peek despite acknowledging that Charlie Campbell is the more skilled technical fighter. He believes Peek's granite chin, high pressure, and chaotic style make him very difficult to beat. He says that Campbell cannot out-technique Peek because Peek is so crazy and in your face. Angelo notes that Peek is a 2-to-1 underdog and that based on skills alone he should be a 10-to-1 underdog, but with Peek's chin and aggression, it's a pick 'em fight. He picks the dog.

Angelo suggests 'inside the distance - no action' bet because finishing Peek is almost impossible; he may bet moneyline if line moves further
"Trevor Peak is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Big Brady picks Trevor Peek with no confidence, acknowledging a huge skill deficit. He notes that Campbell is the much better mixed martial artist, but Peek makes up for it with heart, durability, and toughness. He worries that Campbell may beat Peek up early but fail to finish, allowing Peek to come back and find a finish in the second round, similar to Peek's previous fights.

win by second round KO
"I'm going to pick Peak with like no confidence... I think Peak starts to to get it together and maybe find a finish in that second round so I'll take Trevor Peak to win this fight by second …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Cody is confident in Peek, noting his dog mentality and ability to overcome adversity. He points out Campbell's tendency to fight in the pocket and his high chin, which plays into Peek's power. Cody also highlights Peek's training at altitude with Justin Gaethje and Cory Sandhagen, which should improve his cardio. He predicts a Peek knockout, especially in the small Apex cage.

by KO
"Trevor Peak knockout one... let's get it Trevor ever Peak fight week baby"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Daniel Vreeland picks Trevor Peek despite admitting bias, as he loves Peek's brawling style. He acknowledges Charlie Campbell is more technical and will likely win round one, but believes Peek can take over late if Campbell doesn't finish early. Vreeland notes Campbell is green and has been knocked out by lesser athletes like Chris Duncan, and expects Peek to rough him up against the fence and test his heart in deep waters.

"I'm going to go Trevor Peek to take over late."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charlie Campbell

Campbell is the technically better striker with good range management and patience. He learned from his loss to Duncan and now lets knockouts come to him. Peek has an iron chin and forward pressure, but Campbell can pot-shot him from distance. The fight likely goes to decision, but Campbell should outland him.

Campbell by decision; fight starts round two
"I am going to lean with Campbell in this matchup I think he's the technically better and Slicker fighter here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Paul picks Trevor Peek as a dog, citing his durability, pressure, and power. He notes Campbell has a reach advantage but fights with his head high and has been knocked out by Chris Duncan after dominating. Paul thinks Peek's ability to take a punch and return fire will be key, and that Peek's training camp at altitude with top guys will improve his cardio. He expects a Peek knockout.

by KO
"Trevor Peak is that dog... if this is 50/50 or Trevor Peak is the favorite you might be reconsidering it but a plasman this is a do pass all day"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Charlie Campbell

The host praises Campbell's crispy boxing, footwork, and patience. He notes Campbell learned from getting KO'd by Chris Duncan after dominating early. He predicts Campbell will use his reach advantage, find a shot to wobble Peek, and finish with crisp one-twos. He expects a TKO win.

TKO win predicted
"I'm GNA go Charlie Campbell I know Alex Reyes isn't that good but I urge you guys to watch that fight he had really good striking accuracy"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Alex Morono

Alex Morono W

24-13
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 6 VS Welterweight Completed

Alex Morono

Moneyline
BetWay -290
KO/TKO
FanDuel +190
Submission
BetRivers +600
Decision
BetWay +200

Court McGee

Moneyline
Caesars +290
KO/TKO
DraftKings +1800
Submission
DraftKings +2000
Decision
FanDuel +420
Fighter Stats

Alex Morono

Age35
Height5' 11"
Reach72.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Court McGee

Age41
Height5' 11"
Reach75.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Alex Morono

4.9SLpM
39.0%Str. Acc.
4.88SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.32TD Avg
24.0%TD Acc.
47.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Court McGee

4.5SLpM
36.0%Str. Acc.
3.65SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
1.78TD Avg
24.0%TD Acc.
70.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo picks Alex Morono because he believes Morono is a step ahead everywhere in this fight and could potentially finish an aging Court McGee. He notes that McGee relied on his work ethic and chin, but at 39, that chin is gone and hard work alone won't get wins. Morono is somewhat unreliable himself, but Angelo thinks he should be good here.

"Morono is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady picks Alex Morono to win by decision. He notes that Morono is six years younger, has better striking volume, and good jiu-jitsu. He believes Court McGee's durability is waning after recent knockouts, but doesn't expect a finish. He thinks Morono will be better wherever the fight goes.

win by decision
"I'm taking morono here I'm taking morono to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Cody agrees, noting McGee's recent knockout losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells. He thinks Morono's volume and speed will be too much, and that McGee's pressure game won't work against a more technical striker. Cody also mentions Morono's competitive fight with Joaquin Buckley has aged well.

"morona kills him... I think it's Justified Chuck on Alex morono"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Alex Morono to finish Court McGee in the first round. He compares McGee to past veterans Morono has stopped, like Josh Burkman and Tim Means, noting McGee is 40 and slow. Vreeland believes Morono's speed, power, and vicious intent will overwhelm McGee, and even if taken down, Morono can pop back up. He predicts a first-round knockout or submission.

first round finish
"I actually think Alex Morano gets a first round finish man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Morono is younger, more durable, and has better striking volume and power. McGee's chin is fading after recent knockouts. Morono's defensive grappling should be enough to keep the fight standing, where he can land damaging combinations. Expect a finish in the second or third round.

Morono by KO/TKO or submission (club and sub)
"I think he knocks out or clubs and Subs McGee at some point in this matchup early going should be a little bit grindy a little bit close but as this fight starts to wear on is and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Paul is confident in Morono, citing McGee's age, declining durability, and recent knockout losses. He notes McGee's wins are over one-dimensional grapplers, while Morono has better footwork, volume, and takedown defense. Paul thinks Morono will outwork McGee and possibly knock him out, as McGee's durability is gone.

by KO
"morona kills him... don't mind Alex morono knockout one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The host picks Morono based on output and commitment. He notes Morono looked amazing against Buckley and is better than Ventre. He criticizes McGee's recent losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells. He predicts neither will get a KO or dominate grappling, so Morono's higher volume will win a decision.

"I'm going to go Alex morono more committed to the game more volume on the feet and I doubt either of them get a KO over over each other"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

ŁU

Łukasz Brzeski W

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 7 VS Heavyweight Completed

Łukasz Brzeski

Moneyline
Caesars +210
KO/TKO
FanDuel +470
Submission
BetWay +2500
Decision
BetWay +600

Valter Walker

Moneyline
FanDuel -225
KO/TKO
FanDuel +150
Submission
BetRivers +950
Decision
FanDuel +340
Fighter Stats

Łukasz Brzeski

Age34
Height6' 3"
Reach78"
Weight236 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Valter Walker

Age28
Height6' 6"
Reach78.0"
Weight265 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Łukasz Brzeski

4.9SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
3.65SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.41TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
35.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Valter Walker

2.0SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
2.85SApM
42.0%Str. Def.
5.74TD Avg
69.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
2.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Angelo picks Valter Walker with high confidence, noting that Walker is massive (6'6") and a wrestler who should dominate by coming forward and ragdolling Łukasz Brzeski. He acknowledges that Walker's striking is miserable and he eats shots, but believes heavyweights are not used to a 6'6" Brazilian charging at them with wrestling. He expects the UFC to fast-track Walker.

"Valter is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Big Brady picks Valter Walker by decision, despite being unimpressed with Walker. He notes that Walker is huge, a solid wrestler, and can get fights to the mat. He cannot pick Łukasz Brzeski to win any UFC fight due to poor takedown defense and cardio. He expects a grinding decision with no finish.

win by decision
"give me Walker I'm actually taking Walker by the decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Cody also picks Walker, noting that Brzeski has been taken down 8 times by Karl Williams. He thinks Walker's wrestling and size advantage will be key, and that if Walker sticks to takedowns and top control, he should win. Cody is wary of Walker's UFC debut but believes the matchup favors him.

"I'll go against where the market has been moving and I'll pick volter Walker with you"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Walker is a more complete fighter than his brother Johnny, with solid striking and underrated wrestling. He can take opponents down and grind them out. Brzeski is on a losing streak and has struggled against grapplers. Walker's size and strength advantage will allow him to control the fight and win by decision.

Walker by decision
"I'm going to go Walker here I think he grinds this fight out over 15 minutes and gets his hand raised mainly with a grapple heavy Style on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Paul picks Walker but is hesitant due to question marks. He likes Walker's size, athleticism, and grappling, and notes Brzeski has been taken down repeatedly by wrestlers like Karl Williams. Paul thinks Walker can take Brzeski down, make him carry weight, and gas him out. He acknowledges Walker is unproven but sees a clear path to victory via wrestling and top control.

"I do have volter Walker... he is the pick 100% and there will be a play on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Valter Walker

The host identifies Walker as Johnny Walker's brother, noting he is 6'6", 26 years old, with an 81.5-inch reach. He highlights Walker's dynamic striking (front kicks, head kicks, spinning backfists) and good double-leg takedowns. He recalls a clip of Walker grappling with Johnny Walker, showing good sweeps and butterfly guard. He acknowledges Walker has a chin but is confident in his skills.

"I'm going with wter Walker I don't know if you guys know who this guy is I'm about to tell you who he is"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Norma Dumont

Norma Dumont W

13-3
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 8 VS Women's Bantamweight Completed

Norma Dumont

Moneyline
Caesars -105
KO/TKO
FanDuel +2200
Submission
BetRivers +950
Decision
BetRivers +123

Germaine de Randamie

Moneyline
BetWay +105
KO/TKO
BetWay +500
Submission
FanDuel +1900
Decision
BetWay +275
Fighter Stats

Norma Dumont

Age35
Height5' 7"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Germaine de Randamie

Age42
Height5' 9"
Reach71.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Norma Dumont

3.89SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
2.12SApM
65.0%Str. Def.
1.56TD Avg
56.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Germaine de Randamie

2.57SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
2.0SApM
65.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
65.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Norma Dumont

Angelo picks Norma Dumont but acknowledges that Germaine de Randamie is much better than people give her credit for, with only losses to Amanda Nunes and wins over three champions. However, he notes that those wins are old (3.5 to 7 years ago) and that Germaine is 39. He thinks Norma's technical striking and sound takedown defense will be enough. He also mentions that Germaine might be a good plus 3.5 spread bet if she can win one round.

Angelo mentions Germaine de Randamie as a potential plus 3.5 spread bet (buying points) if she can win one round
"I got to go Norma here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Big Brady picks Germaine de Randamie despite a 3.5-year layoff and many question marks. He notes that de Randamie has only lost to Amanda Nunes in the last 10 years and is the better striker. However, he worries about her takedown defense and the layoff, and acknowledges that the line has moved from +180 to +115, making it less attractive. He is not confident and would not bet on this fight.

"I still think I'm going with gdr here the 39y old with a three and a half year layoff"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Cody agrees, noting Dumont's low output and reliance on clinch control, which doesn't score well. He highlights de Randamie's striking, body work, and improved cardio. Cody also mentions that Dumont will likely miss weight, which could affect her performance. He sees de Randamie as the better athlete and striker.

"I think it's gdr all day... it's a total dogger pass situation"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Daniel Vreeland picks Germaine de Randamie despite her four-year layoff, citing her championship-level resume and improvements in takedown defense before the break. He notes Norma Dumont has been dropped by lesser fighters like Megan Anderson and has only one path to win: extended top control. Vreeland believes even 70% of de Randamie is enough to beat Dumont, given the massive step down in competition.

"I think that Germaine de Randamie might have a little something for her so I'm going with the former champ here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

De Randamie is more skilled overall with striking advantages and improved grappling. She has size and reach advantages and can keep the fight upright. However, the three-and-a-half-year layoff and recent pregnancy are major concerns. If she comes in shape, she should win by decision.

de Randamie by decision
"give me durandy and toand me by decision um not a bad Underdog shot but be wary about all the things that I just laid out for you guys"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Paul picks de Randamie as a dog, citing her superior striking and experience. He notes Dumont is a decision fighter with low volume and no power, and that she will likely miss weight. Paul thinks de Randamie's cardio and durability are solid, and that her striking will be the difference. He calls it a quintessential dogger pass.

"it's a total dogger pass situation and Jermain randomy you could be doing a lot worse"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Norma Dumont

The host uses a mayonnaise bottle flip to decide, but then provides reasoning. He notes Dumont had a close fight with Macy Chiasson, nearly finishing her, showing good grappling. He criticizes de Randamie for being 39, inactive since 2020, and not impressive on the feet. He predicts Dumont will take her down and win on the ground.

"Norma's probably going to win she had a close fight with Macy chasson who I think is actually pretty good of a fighter and has good grappling so Norma jamont arguably nearly beat her"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Victor Hugo

Victor Hugo W

25-5
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 9 VS Bantamweight Completed

Victor Hugo

Moneyline
BetWay -140
KO/TKO
BetRivers +600
Submission
BetRivers +400
Decision
FanDuel +260

Pedro Falcão

Moneyline
Caesars +135
KO/TKO
BetRivers +480
Submission
FanDuel +700
Decision
BetMGM +400
Fighter Stats

Victor Hugo

Age33
Height5' 7"
Reach71.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Pedro Falcão

Age33
Height5' 6"
Reach66"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Victor Hugo

3.27SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
2.95SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.81TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
73.0%TD Def.
1.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Pedro Falcão

3.21SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.39SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
2.73TD Avg
25.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (3)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Victor Hugo

Angelo picks Victor Hugo, noting that he is very high on him. He believes Victor's wild aggressive striking and grappling will break Ailang Haley, who struggles with fighters who push forward and brawl. He expects Victor to pressure forward, have enough takedown defense to keep it standing, and ultimately break Haley.

"Victor Hugo is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Pedro Falcão

Big Brady picks Pedro Falcão as the underdog, despite coming in on short notice. He notes that Falcão is a BJJ black belt, durable, and has good cardio, while Hugo may slow down and sell out for early submissions. Brady thinks Falcão will survive the early rounds and take over late, possibly finishing Hugo in the third round by knockout.

win by third round knockout
"I'm GNA take falca and I'm take him to maybe lose the the early rounds but take over as the fight goes on and maybe finish Victor Hugo late in that third round so give me falal to …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel Vreeland does not make a pick for this fight because it was announced just minutes before recording. He provides background on both fighters: Victor Hugo is a well-rounded veteran with wins by KO, submission, and decision, while Pedro Falcão trains at Nova União and has beaten UFC vets. Vreeland says he needs more time to analyze the matchup.

"I haven't had the adequate time to research it so I'm not gonna give you a pick on it."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Jean Matsumoto

Jean Matsumoto W

17-2
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 4:59
Fight 10 VS Bantamweight Completed

Jean Matsumoto

Moneyline
DraftKings -155
KO/TKO
BetRivers +750
Submission
BetRivers +750
Decision
DraftKings +130

Dan Argueta

Moneyline
BetRivers +143
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1800
Submission
BetMGM +700
Decision
BetRivers +275
Fighter Stats

Jean Matsumoto

Age26
Height5' 6"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Dan Argueta

Age32
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Jean Matsumoto

5.37SLpM
39.0%Str. Acc.
5.41SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
3.0TD Avg
48.0%TD Acc.
56.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Dan Argueta

2.48SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.44SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
4.36TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
55.0%TD Def.
1.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Angelo picks Dan Argueta despite the line movement making him a big underdog. He believes Argueta's pressure and wrestling will be too much for Jean Matsumoto, who is a Contender Series prospect. He notes that Matsumoto beat a wrestler on Contender Series but thinks Argueta is a different animal. He mentions that Argueta's pressure is bigger and better than anything Matsumoto has seen, and that Matsumoto will have to defend every takedown. Angelo is watching the line movement and may bet Argueta if the odds get better.

Angelo is watching line movement; Argueta opened at -140 now +175; may bet if line moves further
"I think Dan Argueta is going to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Big Brady picks Dan Argueta as a live dog, noting that Matsumoto has a tendency to play off his back too much and can be taken down. While Matsumoto is the better striker, Argueta has the wrestling to get the fight to the mat and potentially win two out of three rounds. Brady sees a grinding decision win for Argueta.

"I'm going to take Dan areda to go out there get takedowns stay safe on top and ultimately win a grinding base decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Cody also picks Matsumoto, noting Argueta's inconsistency and tendency to gas. He thinks Argueta will get takedowns early, but Matsumoto's submission threat off his back and striking advantage will allow him to take over late. Cody is wary of Argueta's power wrestling but believes Matsumoto's youth and skill will prevail.

"I'm with you I'm going to side with the uh the contender series graduate in John mats Moto as well"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Daniel Vreeland leans slightly toward Jean Matsumoto, citing his upside and striking combinations. He acknowledges Dan Argueta's wrestling and physicality will likely win the first round, but questions Argueta's cardio if he expends too much energy early. Vreeland believes if Matsumoto can survive the early grappling, he can pick Argueta apart on the feet in later rounds and edge out a decision.

"I'm a slightly lean with Matsumoto I think he's got more upside."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Matsumoto is a bright prospect with great all-around skills, especially striking. He has solid defensive grappling and should be able to stuff takedowns or get back to his feet. His combination striking and leg kicks will damage Argueta, who relies on wrestling but lacks striking. Matsumoto wins by decision.

Matsumoto by decision
"I'm going to take Matsumoto to win by decision um but yeah I I think people are overlooking the true skill set and potential of Matsumoto here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Paul picks Matsumoto but is hesitant. He likes Matsumoto's striking and BJJ, but notes Argueta is a strong wrestler early. Paul thinks if Argueta doesn't get the takedown early or gasses, Matsumoto will take over. He sees Matsumoto as a future contender but acknowledges Argueta's early danger.

"I'm gonna go matumoto... Jean masimoto will be the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The host calls Argueta awful, citing losses to Miles Johns and a no-contest with Ronnie Lawrence. He praises Matsumoto as an undefeated prospect with wicked striking, low kicks, strong hips, and good takedown defense. He notes Matsumoto's small size (5'5") may help stuff takedowns. He predicts a decision win where Matsumoto does more damage than Argueta's control time, but also mentions Matsumoto has good submissions from stuffing takedowns.

"Gan matuto 14 and0 undefeated Prospect Wicked striking Wicked low kicks and something that I've noticed in his game is that he's got a very strong bottom half"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

César Almeida

César Almeida W

7-2
TKO (punches) R2 2:13
Fight 11 VS Middleweight Completed

César Almeida

Moneyline
Caesars +140
KO/TKO
DraftKings +425
Submission
BetRivers +2000
Decision
BetRivers +295

Dylan Budka

Moneyline
BetWay -145
KO/TKO
FanDuel +650
Submission
BetRivers +550
Decision
FanDuel +190
Fighter Stats

César Almeida

Age38
Height6' 1"
Reach74"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Dylan Budka

Age26
Height6' 0"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - César Almeida

3.46SLpM
58.0%Str. Acc.
2.03SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
52.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Dylan Budka

1.06SLpM
38.0%Str. Acc.
1.8SApM
42.0%Str. Def.
1.93TD Avg
38.0%TD Acc.
76.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dylan Budka

Angelo leans Dylan Budka (whom he accidentally calls Gillan) because he is a grappler facing a striker. He expects Budka to shoot takedowns instantly and not stand and strike with César Almeida, a high-level kickboxer. He notes that Almeida's takedown defense is unknown and that defending trips on Contender Series is different from defending actual shots. However, he acknowledges the unknowns with UFC debuts.

"Dylan is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
César Almeida

Big Brady picks César Almeida as the underdog, citing that Almeida is the much better striker with an extensive kickboxing background. He notes that the judges have been emphasizing damage over control, which favors Almeida's big shots. However, he acknowledges that Budka could rack up control time with wrestling, but doubts Budka will do much with it. He sees a close fight with Almeida landing bigger shots and winning a decision.

"give me the dog here and Caesar Al it just doing a little bit more Landing a little bit more bigger shots having bigger moments and ultimately coming away with a decision win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
César Almeida

Cody picks Almeida as a dog, citing his win over Alex Pereira in kickboxing and his striking advantage. He notes Budka is a one-dimensional wrestler with poor cardio, and that Almeida's takedown defense, while not great, may be enough to get back to his feet. Cody thinks Almeida's striking will be the difference, especially if Budka tires.

"give me the guy who has a win over Alex perea against any man on Earth with a man bun"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
César Almeida

Daniel Vreeland picks César Almeida, expecting him to overcome early grappling scares and take over on the feet in later rounds. He notes Almeida's kickboxing pedigree from fighting Patan three times and his ability to get back up after takedowns. Vreeland believes Almeida's body shots, leg kicks, and jab will slow Budka's takedown attempts, allowing Almeida to finesse him on the feet.

"I'm going with Cesar to kind of pick up the momentum late... finesse him on the feet after overcoming the early grappling scares."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
César Almeida

Almeida is technically the better striker with kickboxing experience, including a win over Alex Pereira. He showed improved grappling in his last fight, which should help nullify Budka's clinch and grinding. Budka is physically strong but lacks technique; Almeida can damage him in close with knees and elbows, then win by decision.

Almeida by decision
"I'm going to go Almeida uh solid Underdog spot in my opinion I think he's technically the better matchup here it all just comes down to if he can shut down the physicality of buka which will be …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dylan Budka

Paul picks Budka but with low conviction. He notes Budka is a one-dimensional wrestler, while Almeida is a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. Paul thinks Budka can grind out a win by takedowns and control, but acknowledges Almeida's striking pedigree and the possibility of a knockout. He calls it a pass fight.

"I'll take buka... there's no conviction from it whatsoever"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dylan Budka

The host emphasizes Budka's elite high school wrestling credentials (87-5 record, national champion, All-American) and contrasts it with Almeida's kickboxing background. He notes that Almeida was taken down by Lucas Fernando, who has no wrestling background, and argues Budka's wrestling will be the decisive factor. He predicts Budka will dominate with takedowns and calls it a lock, threatening to quit covering the sport if Budka doesn't outwrestle Almeida.

"this dude is ragd doing this kickboxer who has not grappled before and if he doesn't I call quit I will not cover this sport anymore"
Fight Notes
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Nice high kick, takedown down by Budka rd1. Cesar is 36 in this fight, Budka is 24. Ceasar defend takedowns rd2 and elbow'd him for the KO. Lame.

Nora Cornolle

Nora Cornolle W

9-4
TKO (knee to the body and head kicks) R2 3:06
Fight 12 VS Catchweight (138.5 lb) Completed

Nora Cornolle

Moneyline
FanDuel +310
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1000
Submission
BetMGM +1800
Decision
FanDuel +550

Melissa Mullins

Moneyline
BetWay -350
KO/TKO
FanDuel +480
Submission
FanDuel +550
Decision
DraftKings -105
Fighter Stats

Nora Cornolle

Age36
Height5' 7"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Melissa Mullins

Age34
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Nora Cornolle

2.73SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
2.04SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.22TD Avg
11.0%TD Acc.
47.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Melissa Mullins

3.71SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
4.39SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
2.03TD Avg
42.0%TD Acc.
85.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Angelo picks Melissa Mullins because she is the more well-rounded fighter with takedowns if needed, and she showed she can get dropped but get back up and stay tough. He notes that Nora Cornolle is dangerous early but has terrible takedown defense and poor cardio. He cannot pick Nora hoping for an early knockout when she can't keep the fight standing. He advises not to spend money on this fight.

"Melissa Mullins is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Big Brady picks Melissa Mullins to win by TKO in the second round. He notes that Mullins has a strong ground game and vicious ground and pound, while Cornolle has a hole in her takedown defense and ground game, as shown in her last fight against Joselyn Edwards where she was taken down repeatedly. Brady believes Mullins will get the fight to the mat and finish.

TKO in the second round
"I like Mullin to go out there get this fight down to the mat and get a TKO in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Cody also picks Mullins but is not enthusiastic. He notes Mullins's slow starts but her ability to build momentum and her strong top control. He thinks Cornolle is a low-volume fighter who was outwrestled by Joselyne Edwards. Cody believes Mullins's forward pressure and grappling will be too much, but the price is prohibitive.

"I think the rightful favorite does win and puts an end to that"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Melissa Mullins, citing her dominant grappling and resilience. He notes Mullins has overcome bad spots on the feet, as seen in the fight against 'Russian Ronda', and can finish fights once she gets takedowns. Vreeland warns that if Mullins tries to stand and bang with Cornolle, it could be trouble, but expects her to stick to her game plan of taking the fight to the mat.

"I'm going to go Melissa Dixon to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Mullins is a better fighter overall with dominant grappling and top control. Cornolle has holes in her game, especially takedown defense, as seen against Edwards. Mullins will control positions and likely find a TKO or submission in the second or third round.

Mullins inside the distance
"I think that we'll see Mullins assert that dominant top position and eventually find a TKO or a submission gim me Mullins and Mullins inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Paul picks Mullins but hates the price. He notes Mullins is a slow starter but has great durability and top pressure, and that she takes over in rounds 2 and 3. He thinks Cornolle is a low-volume fighter who was arguably gifted a decision in her UFC debut. Paul suggests live betting Mullins after round 1 or taking her by decision.

by decision, live bet after round 1
"I think she wins the price you don't love... Melissa Mullins by decision perhaps"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

The host dismisses both fighters as low-level, calling it an embarrassment to watch. He uses a mayonnaise bottle flip to decide, landing on Melissa Mullins. He notes she is younger and has more reach, but his reasoning is flippant and not serious.

"going with Melissa Dixon I re Melissa Dixon's going to win um she's younger she's got more reach"
Fight Notes

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