UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier

Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to win by submission in the second round, but with low confidence. He notes that Oliveira has improved immensely, answering questions about his cardio and chin. He believes Oliveira can get the fight to the mat, where he is a wizard, and submit Poirier. Poirier has the striking advantage and good takedown defense, but has been taken down by grapplers like Dan Hooker. Brady is staying away from moneyline bets and is playing props.

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to win the lightweight title. He emphasizes Poirier's finishing instinct, particularly his patented blitz when he hurts opponents, and his ability to throw high volume (350+ strikes in recent fights). Levi notes that Poirier has survived deep submission attempts before, unlike Michael Chandler who made a 'meathead error' against Oliveira. He believes Poirier's composure and experience on big stages will be key, and that he will hurt Oliveira standing and finish him without making a mistake.

This is a volatile fight. Poirier is the slightly better boxer and should weather Oliveira's early aggression. Oliveira's striking has improved, but Poirier's defensive soundness and experience in five-round fights give him an edge. The fight likely ends inside the distance, and Poirier's finishing ability in later rounds is key. The 'fight doesn't go to decision' is a strong play.

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira to win by first-round submission (rear-naked choke). He highlights Oliveira's check hook as a key weapon against Poirier's vulnerability to left hooks. He also notes Poirier's tendency to leave his neck exposed on the ground, as seen against Khabib. He believes Oliveira's confidence in his jiu-jitsu allows him to strike freely, while Poirier will be hesitant due to takedown threats.

Big Brady is very confident in Amanda Nunes winning early, likely by first-round submission. He notes that Nunes is the GOAT and has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, and cardio. Peña has poor takedown defense (23%) and was submitted by GDR, which is concerning. Nunes can finish by knockout or submission, and Brady expects a quick finish.

Daniel Levi picks Amanda Nunes to win by submission in the first round. He notes that Peña's striking is sloppy and she has been submitted in two of her last four fights. Levi believes Nunes will establish her jab and calf kicks, and when Peña shoots a sloppy takedown, Nunes will sprawl and lock in a d'arce or anaconda choke. He thinks Peña's trash talk will motivate Nunes to make a statement.

Nunes is the far superior fighter and should win, but the method is uncertain. Peña will try to grapple, which could slow the fight and push it past 1.5 rounds. Nunes has KO power, but Peña's durability and grappling could extend the fight. The over 1.5 rounds is a lean, but Nunes inside the distance is the most likely outcome.

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Nunes to win by first-round TKO, dismissing Julianna Peña's chances. He criticizes Peña's striking technique and notes she was submitted by a standing guillotine against Jermaine de Randamie. He believes Nunes is on a different level in strength and skill.

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to win by knockout, but with low confidence due to Neal's recent DUI and gun possession arrest. He notes that Neal has a power advantage and reach advantage over Ponzinibbio, who is 35 and coming off a layoff and a knockout loss. However, Neal's preparation is a major concern. Brady says if Neal shows up focused, he has a good chance, but he is not sure the fight will even happen.

Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win a war of attrition. He notes that both fighters nearly died from medical issues, but Ponzinibbio looked better in his last fight against Miguel Baeza, shaking off rust. Levi questions whether Geoff Neal has recovered from his sepsis and heart failure, citing poor performances against Wonderboy and Neil Magny. He believes Ponzinibbio's jab, straight right, calf kicks, and takedown defense will be too much. Levi expects Ponzinibbio to be more aggressive and meaner.

Neal is the more technical striker and will counter Ponzinibbio's aggressive pressure effectively. Ponzinibbio has defensive flaws and is hittable, especially against a counter-striker. Neal's straight right and speed should find the mark, and a knockout is possible. The underdog odds provide value.

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, citing his experience, technical striking, and ability to pressure. He notes that Geoff Neal had a troubled training camp (jail time) and has shown vulnerability against pressure fighters. He predicts Ponzinibbio will win 30-27.

Big Brady picks Cody Garbrandt by knockout, but with very low confidence. He notes that Garbrandt has fought better competition and is the harder hitter, but there are many red flags: Garbrandt is moving down in weight, has durability concerns, and has been knocked out before. Kara-France has good takedown defense and volume, but his chin is questionable. Brady cannot bet this fight due to the uncertainty.

Daniel Levi picks Kai Kara-France for the upset, expressing concerns about Cody Garbrandt's drop to flyweight. He references historical examples like TJ Dillashaw and Figueiredo struggling with the weight cut, and worries about Garbrandt's durability losing 10 pounds. Levi acknowledges Garbrandt's superior competition but believes the speed and output at flyweight will favor Kara-France. He notes Kara-France's one-punch knockout power and training at a great camp. Levi is skeptical about Garbrandt's desperation move to flyweight.

Garbrandt is the much better technical striker and should be able to counter Kara-France's blitzes. However, his durability is a concern, especially at a new weight class. If he stays disciplined and uses footwork, he can win a decision. The weight cut and chin are question marks, so this is a watch-and-see fight.

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France to win by first-round KO, calling it an upset. He believes Garbrandt's weight cut to flyweight will be detrimental, and his defensive flaws will be exposed. He notes Kara-France's reach advantage and power, predicting he will catch Garbrandt early.

Big Brady is confident in Sean O'Malley winning by knockout. He highlights O'Malley's massive striking advantage, with high volume and accuracy, while Paiva has poor striking defense and gets hit more than he lands. Paiva rarely shoots takedowns and has low takedown accuracy, so O'Malley should be able to keep the fight standing. Brady is unimpressed with Paiva's competition and believes O'Malley will finish him.

Daniel Levi picks Sean O'Malley to win but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He praises O'Malley's striking diversity and volume but questions his defensive and mental toughness when facing adversity. Levi notes Paiva's heart and durability, referencing his comeback win over Kyler Phillips. He worries about O'Malley's compromised leg (from the Chito fight) and Paiva's ability to capitalize if O'Malley gets hurt. Levi says he might take a half-unit shot on Paiva but ultimately picks O'Malley.

O'Malley has the striking advantage and power to finish, but Paiva is durable and has a path via takedowns. However, Paiva's striking defense is suspect, and O'Malley will counter effectively. The under 2.5 rounds is a good bet, as O'Malley likely gets a first-round KO.

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley to win by second-round TKO via a spinning back kick to the body. He believes O'Malley's reach, height, and striking advantage will be too much for Paiva. He notes O'Malley's underrated ground game and training with Kyla Phillips, who recently fought Paiva. He predicts O'Malley will hurt Paiva early and finish him with body shots.

Big Brady picks Josh Emmett to win, but with some hesitation due to Emmett's age (36) and layoff. He notes that Emmett is one of the hardest hitters in the division, with knockdowns in his last six fights. Ige is durable and has never been finished, but has been knocked down before. Brady expects Emmett's power to be the key, possibly leading to a decision win if he can't finish Ige. He also mentions that Ige is younger and the line movement favors Ige.

Daniel Levi picks Josh Emmett to win, highlighting his incredible volume and power. He notes that Emmett's strike output increases as the fight progresses, unlike typical power punchers. Levi mentions Emmett's wrestling background and his most knockdowns in featherweight history. He believes Emmett is a bad matchup for Dan Ige, who tends to take rounds off and has defensive issues. Levi sees value in Emmett at -150, opening at -200, and expects a knockout or dominant decision.

The MMA Guru picks Josh Emmett to win by decision (29-28). He praises Emmett's power, footwork, and technical striking, noting his ability to drop opponents with jabs. He believes Dan Ige was exposed by Korean Zombie and lacks the technical ability to handle Emmett's power and movement.

Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz by decision, but with low confidence. He notes that Cruz has excellent striking defense (72%) and movement, and the bigger cage favors his footwork. Munoz is dangerous with leg kicks and submissions, but he absorbs a lot of strikes. Brady believes Cruz can stay on the outside and outpoint Munoz, but Munoz's power and grappling threat make this a close fight.

Daniel Levi picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision, citing Munhoz's struggles against point fighters. He notes that Munhoz gets hit frequently (six times per minute) and has lost to fighters like John Dodson and Frankie Edgar who use movement. Levi believes Cruz's footwork and elusiveness will frustrate Munhoz, and the larger octagon at T-Mobile gives Cruz more room. He acknowledges Munhoz's power and calf kicks but thinks Cruz can neutralize them. Levi sees Cruz winning a clear decision.

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision (29-28). He believes Cruz's footwork and range management will be problematic for Munhoz, who struggles against fighters who stay on the outside. He notes the bigger cage favors Cruz and that Munhoz has faded in recent fights.

Big Brady edges with Augusto Sakai in a close fight. He notes that both fighters have similar striking and grappling numbers, but Sakai has better cardio and has gone to decisions against tough opponents. Tuivasa tends to fade after the first round, while Sakai is more comfortable in later rounds. Brady expects Sakai to win a 29-28 decision, but acknowledges Tuivasa's power and early-round finishing ability make this a pick'em.

Daniel Levi picks Tai Tuivasa, noting that Sakai's chin has been checked in his last two losses and his confidence may be shaken. He believes Tuivasa's brawling style and power could get Sakai out early. Levi acknowledges that an extended fight favors Sakai's methodical approach, but he thinks Tuivasa will have big moments that sway the judges. He also mentions Tuivasa's improved training at AKA and lifestyle changes. Levi is not sure it will be a knockout but expects Tuivasa to win.

The MMA Guru picks Tai Tuivasa to win by first-round KO. He highlights Tuivasa's improved cardio and calf kicks, which he believes will wear down Sakai. He criticizes Sakai's chin and notes he is coming off a KO loss. He predicts Tuivasa will land a counter right hand or left hook to finish.

Big Brady is confident in Bruno Silva winning by first-round knockout. He highlights that both fighters have poor striking defense and high finish rates, but Silva has never been knocked out and hits extremely hard. Wright has a questionable chin and keeps his chin high, making him vulnerable. Brady expects Silva to pressure Wright against the cage and land heavy combinations. He also notes the fight doesn't go to decision line is minus 450, indicating high finish probability.

Daniel Levi picks Bruno Silva to knock out Jordan Wright. He praises Silva's body work, knees, and finishing ability, noting his wins over Alexander Shlemenko and Artem Frolov. Levi criticizes Wright's durability, saying he can give but not take shots. He expects Silva to land a body shot that puts Wright down. Levi is confident in Silva's power and pressure.

The MMA Guru picks Bruno Silva to win by third-round TKO. He believes Silva is more technically sound on the feet and has better cardio. He notes Wright's tendency to slow down after the first round and Silva's ability to pressure and land body shots. He predicts a war early, with Silva taking over in later rounds.

Big Brady picks Eryk Anders as an underdog, but with low confidence. He notes that Muniz is a phenomenal grappler with a wizard-like BJJ, but his striking is poor and he has been knocked out in all four losses. Anders has good takedown defense (76%) and power, and if he can stuff takedowns and extend the fight, he can finish Muniz by knockout. However, if the fight hits the mat, Muniz is extremely dangerous. Brady is concerned about Muniz's cardio and Anders' fight IQ.

Daniel Levi picks Eryk Anders to upset André Muniz. He argues that Muniz will have difficulty taking Anders down due to Anders' size and strength, and that Anders' jiu-jitsu is good enough to survive on the mat. Levi notes that Anders has never been submitted and rarely taken down. On the feet, he believes Anders throws more and has knockout power. Levi acknowledges Muniz's elite jiu-jitsu but thinks Anders can sprawl-and-brawl to a decision or KO.

The MMA Guru picks André Muniz to win by first-round submission (rear-naked choke). He highlights Muniz's dangerous grappling, as seen in his armbar win over Jacaré. He notes Anders is taking the fight on short notice and has been taken down before. He suggests a live bet on Anders if the fight goes to the third round, as Muniz has slowed down in the past.

Daniel Levi picks Erin Blanchfield, citing her aggression, volume, and black belt in jiu-jitsu. He notes that he took Blanchfield at +135 earlier in the week, seeing value. Levi believes the striking can be even, with Blanchfield having more volume and Maverick more power. On the mat, Blanchfield has a black belt vs Maverick's brown belt. He acknowledges Blanchfield is smaller but likes her toughness and competition outside the UFC. He expects a close decision and likes the dog odds.

The MMA Guru picks Miranda Maverick to win by decision (30-27). He believes Maverick is a level above Blanchfield, with better striking and takedown defense. He expects the fight to stay on the feet, where Maverick will outpoint Blanchfield. He acknowledges Blanchfield's grappling but thinks Maverick can negate it.

Big Brady picks Ryan Hall by submission in the second round, but he is not fully confident. He notes that Minner is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with poor submission defense (8 submission losses) and tends to gas out after the first round. Hall is a phenomenal grappler, but his striking is unorthodox and he looked bad in his last fight. Brady believes Minner will engage in grappling and eventually get caught in a submission as he tires. He recommends staying away from this fight due to its unpredictability.

Daniel Levi picks Ryan Hall to win by submission, specifically a leg lock. He notes that Darrick Minner is a submission specialist himself but tends to get submitted when he grapples with elite jiu-jitsu practitioners. Levi believes Minner will try to grapple with Hall, which plays into Hall's strength. He also mentions that if the fight stays standing, Hall's unorthodox spin kicks could be effective. Levi is confident Hall will find a submission.

This is a volatile fight. Minner has discipline issues and a questionable gas tank, but if he stays disciplined and counters Hall's unorthodox striking, he can win a decision. Hall's BJJ is a threat, but if he can't get the fight to the ground, he struggles. Minner's path is to avoid submissions and grind out a win, but confidence is low.

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Hall to win by submission, specifically a heel hook in the second round. He acknowledges Darrick Minner's capabilities but believes Hall's ground game will be too much. He predicts Minner will eventually end up in Hall's guard, allowing Hall to secure a leg submission.

Big Brady picks Randy Costa but with low confidence due to Costa's questionable cardio. He notes that Costa is explosive and powerful in the first round but tends to fade if the fight goes past round one, as seen in previous fights. He believes Costa will likely finish Kelley early by knockout, but if Kelley survives the initial storm, Kelley's cardio advantage could lead to a win. Brady mentions he would not bet Costa on the moneyline but would consider a round 1 or inside the distance prop.

Daniel Levi picks Tony Kelley to win by late stoppage or decision. He argues that Randy Costa is a first-round finisher but fades if he can't get the knockout, citing losses to Brandon Davis and Adrian Yanez. Levi emphasizes Kelley's durability, never being finished, and his experience going five rounds. He believes if Kelley survives the first seven minutes, Costa will fall apart mentally and physically. Levi notes Costa's questionable mentality, referencing an interview where Costa cried before an amateur fight.

Costa is the much better striker, quicker and more explosive, but his gas tank is a major concern. If he doesn't finish early, Kelley will take over in the later rounds. The fight likely ends inside the distance, either by Costa's early KO or Kelley's late submission. The play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' to cover both outcomes.

The MMA Guru confidently picks Randy Costa to win by head kick KO in the first round. He praises Costa's potential and striking, noting his impressive performance against Adrian Yanez. He criticizes Tony Kelley's one-dimensional style and lack of cardio, believing Costa's reach advantage and power will be decisive.

Big Brady is confident in Gillian Robertson due to her superior BJJ and fight IQ. He notes that Robertson is a legit black belt with submission wins over several opponents, while Cachoeira has poor takedown and submission defense, often getting caught in submissions even by lower-level grapplers. He believes Robertson will get the fight to the mat early and finish by submission in the first round. He also mentions that Cachoeira is very hittable but tough, though the grappling gap is too wide.

Daniel Levi picks Priscila Cachoeira for the upset, despite acknowledging Gillian Robertson's submission edge. He notes that Robertson tends to quit when faced with resistance, as seen in the Tyler Santos fight and against Miranda Maverick. Levi highlights Cachoeira's knockout power and durability, referencing her willingness to take a beating in the Valentina fight. He believes if Robertson doesn't get a first-round submission, Cachoeira will eventually land a knockout. He calls the line 'way off' and suggests a half-unit bet on Cachoeira.

Robertson is the much better BJJ specialist and will take Cachoeira down with relative ease. Cachoeira is a brawler who leaves herself open to takedowns, and Robertson has the cardio to maintain top pressure. Robertson can be reckless with submissions, but even if she loses position, she is dangerous off her back. The under 2.5 rounds is also appealing due to the finishing threat from both sides.

The MMA Guru picks Gillian Robertson to win via submission, specifically a rear-naked choke in the first round. He highlights Robertson's superior jiu-jitsu and grappling advantage, noting that Cachoeira was taken down and controlled by Gina Mazany, who has inferior jiu-jitsu. He believes Robertson's submission skills will allow her to finish the fight early.