Career Averages - Carlos Felipe
Career Averages - Yorgan De Castro
Carlos Felipe - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 83 of 172 | 48% | 84 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Felipe | 0 | 73 of 172 | 42% | 73 of 172 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 26 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Felipe | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 28 of 67 | 41% | 28 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Felipe | 0 | 30 of 74 | 40% | 30 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Felipe | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Arlovski | 83 of 172 | 48% | 49 of 133 | 11 of 15 | 23 of 24 | 81 of 170 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Felipe | 73 of 172 | 42% | 53 of 145 | 15 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 54 of 148 | 12 of 14 | 7 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrei Arlovski | 26 of 51 | 50% | 9 of 32 | 7 of 9 | 10 of 10 | 26 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Felipe | 12 of 33 | 36% | 3 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andrei Arlovski | 28 of 67 | 41% | 17 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 9 | 27 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Felipe | 30 of 74 | 40% | 25 of 67 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 27 of 71 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andrei Arlovski | 29 of 54 | 53% | 23 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 28 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Felipe | 31 of 65 | 47% | 25 of 56 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 44 | 9 of 11 | 7 of 10 |
Angelo picks Arlovski reluctantly due to his age (42) but believes his new bouncing style, footwork, and jab will allow him to outpoint Felipe. Felipe is a young boxer with good volume and cardio but lacks power. Arlovski can also initiate grappling if needed. Angelo is concerned about Arlovski's chin but thinks he can avoid danger. He likes Arlovski at 8200 in DraftKings and the more more on monkey knife fight.
Big Brady leans toward Carlos Felipe by decision, citing Felipe's youth, durability, and volume. He notes Arlovski is 42 and inconsistent, sometimes low-volume. However, he dislikes Felipe's close split decisions and showboating. He has no interest in betting this fight.
Cody picks Arlovski as a slight lean, arguing that Arlovski has become the ultimate gatekeeper who beats young up-and-comers who aren't the real deal. He points out that Felipe's wins have been close split decisions against low-level competition, and that Arlovski's smart game plan of smothering Felipe against the cage and outpointing him at distance should work. He expects the fight to go to decision.
Daniel picks Carlos Felipe, noting the odds are close and everyone is on Arlovski. He sees Felipe as a young, improving fighter who likes to bang, and he dismisses the controversial Jake Collier fight as a win for Felipe. He acknowledges Arlovski's veteran savvy and speed but thinks Felipe can win a close, possibly controversial split decision.
Arlovski will use his outside striking, jabs, and leg kicks to outpoint Felipe, who lacks finishing ability in the UFC. Felipe's success comes in the pocket, but Arlovski will avoid brawling. The fight is likely to go the distance, with Arlovski winning a decision.
Paul leans toward Felipe edging out a decision based on volume and forward pressure, but admits he's not confident. He notes that Arlovski is the more technical striker but Felipe throws more volume and is durable. He says he's not willing to step in front of it with his money.
The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski by decision, noting the even odds and Felipe's lack of KO power. He argues that only fighters who obliterate competition beat Arlovski, and Felipe's close fights with Jake Collier and Justin Tafa are red flags. He expects Arlovski's footwork and jab to neutralize Felipe's body shots, leading to a 30-27 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Felipe | 0 | 94 of 192 | 48% | 94 of 192 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Jake Collier | 0 | 130 of 281 | 46% | 130 of 281 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Felipe | 0 | 25 of 43 | 58% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jake Collier | 0 | 42 of 92 | 45% | 42 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Felipe | 0 | 28 of 58 | 48% | 28 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jake Collier | 0 | 34 of 78 | 43% | 34 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carlos Felipe | 0 | 41 of 91 | 45% | 41 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Jake Collier | 0 | 54 of 111 | 48% | 54 of 111 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Felipe | 94 of 192 | 48% | 64 of 153 | 25 of 33 | 5 of 6 | 92 of 190 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Collier | 130 of 281 | 46% | 86 of 229 | 20 of 26 | 24 of 26 | 127 of 277 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Felipe | 25 of 43 | 58% | 13 of 26 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 25 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Collier | 42 of 92 | 45% | 23 of 69 | 4 of 7 | 15 of 16 | 42 of 91 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Felipe | 28 of 58 | 48% | 15 of 44 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 28 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Collier | 34 of 78 | 43% | 23 of 65 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 33 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Felipe | 41 of 91 | 45% | 36 of 83 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 39 of 89 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Collier | 54 of 111 | 48% | 40 of 95 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 52 of 109 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Carlos Felipe despite acknowledging it's a close fight. He notes Felipe has better boxing, cardio, and durability, while Collier has a reach and height advantage but has been knocked out three times. He expects a close decision win for Felipe, though he is not overly confident.
Cody leans towards Collier as an underdog, citing his impressive cardio and output in his last fight. He thinks Collier's pressure and volume will overwhelm Felipe, who has shown cardio issues and inability to get off the cage. He notes Felipe's lack of power.
Daniel Levi picks Carlos Felipe to win by knockout in the first round. He emphasizes Felipe's durability, high boxing volume, and youth, contrasting with Jake Collier's questionable win over John Volante. Levi notes that Collier was a former middleweight who ballooned up and that Felipe's power and pressure will be too much. He also mentions that Felipe's weakness is the clinch or ground, but Collier is not a strong grappler.
Collier has a more varied striking attack with leg kicks, body kicks, and punches, while Felipe is a headhunter who telegraphs his big shots. Collier's durability should allow him to eat Felipe's power, and he can mix in takedowns and clinch work to control the fight. Expect Collier to win via decision, as Felipe's takedown defense is questionable and his output is low.
Paul leans towards Collier, noting his improved cardio and striking output in his last fight. He thinks Collier can pressure Felipe and exploit his weaknesses against the cage. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Felipe based on his superior cardio, boxing, and toughness. He notes Felipe's close fight with Sergey Spivak and his youth and chin advantage. He expects Felipe to win a 29-28 decision, possibly losing one close round to Collier.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Felipe | 0 | 77 of 142 | 54% | 77 of 142 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 86 of 148 | 58% | 109 of 171 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Felipe | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 26 of 47 | 55% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Felipe | 0 | 35 of 61 | 57% | 35 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 34 of 53 | 64% | 34 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carlos Felipe | 0 | 33 of 52 | 63% | 33 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 26 of 48 | 54% | 49 of 71 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Felipe | 77 of 142 | 54% | 46 of 103 | 28 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 64 of 128 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 86 of 148 | 58% | 50 of 107 | 20 of 24 | 16 of 17 | 74 of 133 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Felipe | 9 of 29 | 31% | 3 of 20 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 26 of 47 | 55% | 7 of 27 | 8 of 9 | 11 of 11 | 26 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Felipe | 35 of 61 | 57% | 22 of 45 | 12 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 53 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 34 of 53 | 64% | 23 of 40 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Felipe | 33 of 52 | 63% | 21 of 38 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 46 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 26 of 48 | 54% | 20 of 40 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 36 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Carlos Felipe to win by decision, citing his volume and cardio for a heavyweight. He notes that Felipe has a good chin and has never been knocked out, while Tafa has power but is less active. He likes the over 1.5 rounds due to Felipe's durability and lack of one-punch knockout power. He thinks if there is a finish, it would be from Tafa, but Felipe's chin should hold.
Daniel Levi leans Carlos Felipe due to more experience and volume, though he acknowledges Tafa's power and potential improvement. He notes Felipe's fight with Spivak showed durability, and he mixes body punches. He calls it a possible dollar pass due to heavyweight variance.
Felipe has a well-rounded game with good volume, pressure, and durability. He outworked Jorgen de Castro and showed a solid chin. Tafa relies on his power, especially his uppercut, but his defense is poor and he has cardio issues. Felipe's head movement and defensive striking should keep him safe, and his pace will overwhelm Tafa as the fight goes on. Tafa's only path to victory is an early KO, but Felipe has never been knocked out. Felipe by decision or late finish is likely.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Felipe over Justin Tafa, citing Felipe's better cardio, chin, and fight IQ. He expects Felipe to weather Tafa's early power, clinch against the cage, and slow Tafa down for a late second or third round TKO. He notes Tafa's tendency to rush recklessly and his lack of cardio in longer fights.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Felipe | 0 | 48 of 100 | 48% | 113 of 174 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:13 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 0 | 78 of 177 | 44% | 88 of 187 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Felipe | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 0 | 23 of 57 | 40% | 23 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Felipe | 0 | 28 of 57 | 49% | 29 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 0 | 27 of 75 | 36% | 28 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 3 | Carlos Felipe | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 70 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 37 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Felipe | 48 of 100 | 48% | 24 of 72 | 8 of 11 | 16 of 17 | 48 of 99 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 78 of 177 | 44% | 39 of 127 | 28 of 38 | 11 of 12 | 65 of 161 | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Felipe | 14 of 27 | 51% | 3 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 23 of 57 | 40% | 7 of 35 | 8 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 23 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Felipe | 28 of 57 | 49% | 15 of 42 | 6 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 28 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 27 of 75 | 36% | 12 of 55 | 12 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 71 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Felipe | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 28 of 45 | 62% | 20 of 37 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 33 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Yorgan De Castro to win, likely by knockout. He notes De Castro's hard leg kicks and power, while Felipe is hittable. However, he is concerned about De Castro's low volume and poor performance against Hardy, so he is not confident enough to parlay.
Daniel leans with De Castro, noting his powerful kicks and heavy hands, but is not confident because De Castro gassed after the first round against Greg Hardy. He calls it a dog or pass situation at the betting window due to the price and lack of proven cardio. He acknowledges Felipe's brawling style but sees De Castro's low kicks as a key weapon.
The host gives the technical advantage to De Castro, citing his leg kicks and striking polish. He expects De Castro to win by third-round TKO after wearing Felipe down. However, he finds the line too wide to bet either side confidently.
The Guru picks Yorgan De Castro, citing his good kicks and hand speed. He believes De Castro's loss to Greg Hardy was due to a broken foot and that he will land clean on Felipe's chin, predicting a first-round KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 44 of 121 | 36% | 44 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Felipe | 0 | 73 of 149 | 48% | 165 of 253 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 4:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 23 of 59 | 38% | 23 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Felipe | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 20 of 58 | 34% | 20 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Felipe | 0 | 29 of 73 | 39% | 31 of 75 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 3 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Felipe | 0 | 24 of 31 | 77% | 114 of 133 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 44 of 121 | 36% | 30 of 107 | 14 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 121 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Felipe | 73 of 149 | 48% | 72 of 148 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 47 of 121 | 3 of 3 | 23 of 25 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 23 of 59 | 38% | 14 of 50 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Felipe | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Serghei Spivac | 20 of 58 | 34% | 15 of 53 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Felipe | 29 of 73 | 39% | 28 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Serghei Spivac | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Felipe | 24 of 31 | 77% | 24 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 25 |
Big Brady is confident in Spivac despite acknowledging he's not great. He notes Spivac's submission skills (60% of wins by submission) and believes Felipe's layoff (3 years, steroid suspension) and poor gas tank will be decisive. He predicts Spivac will take Felipe down and win a grinding decision.
Daniel Levi picks Carlos Felipe to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Felipe is an unknown quantity with power, and that Spivak has looked slow and been taken down in recent fights. He thinks Felipe might come out and bomb on Spivak early. He is curious about Felipe's ground game but believes the power advantage could end the fight quickly.
The MMA Guru picks Spivac because he is the bigger guy with better experience, having faced tougher competition like Walt Harris and Tybura. He notes Felipe hasn't fought anyone of Spivac's level and rates Spivac's losses higher than Felipe's wins. He also mentions Spivac has grappling to fall back on and is slightly better on the feet.
Yorgan De Castro - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarjis Danho | 0 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 1 | 10 of 12 | 83% | 10 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jarjis Danho | 0 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 1 | 10 of 12 | 83% | 10 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarjis Danho | 2 of 11 | 18% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 10 of 12 | 83% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jarjis Danho | 2 of 11 | 18% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 10 of 12 | 83% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady picks De Castro to win by first-round knockout, but he is not confident and is passing on betting. He notes De Castro is the more active fighter, while Danho has a massive layoff (4.5 years) and poor cardio. Brady acknowledges the fight is low level and could be sloppy, but he expects De Castro's power and activity to prevail. He would not lay the -300 price.
Cody picks De Castro, citing Danho's poor performance and long layoff. He notes De Castro's leg kicks and power, while Danho is a brute with no plan B. He parlayed De Castro with Vettori.
Daniel Levi picks Yorgan De Castro, calling Jarjis Danho a quitter and a weasel who tries to get DQ wins. He thinks De Castro's leg kicks and improved get-up game will be key, and that Danho fades after the first three minutes. Levi predicts a knockout, possibly from leg kicks setting up a head shot. He also notes that De Castro has less than 10 pro fights but this is a winnable matchup.
The host is not confident in De Castro at -285, calling him a 'can crusher' and noting his poor performance against Carlos Felipe. He thinks Danho is even worse, but De Castro's output is questionable. He picks De Castro to win by decision, but strongly advises staying away from betting this fight. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds as the only play.
Paul picks De Castro, calling Danho a 'weasel' who looks for ways out. He notes Danho's lack of UFC quality and De Castro's power. He thinks De Castro wins by decision or late finish.
The MMA Guru picks Yorgan De Castro by first-round KO. He notes De Castro has good power and a big KO win over Justin Tafa. He criticizes Danho as a 37-year-old who arguably shouldn't be in the UFC and had a draw in his last fight. He thinks De Castro, fighting for his career, will be urgent and finish Danho early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Felipe | 0 | 48 of 100 | 48% | 113 of 174 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:13 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 0 | 78 of 177 | 44% | 88 of 187 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Felipe | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 0 | 23 of 57 | 40% | 23 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Felipe | 0 | 28 of 57 | 49% | 29 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 0 | 27 of 75 | 36% | 28 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 3 | Carlos Felipe | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 70 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 37 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Felipe | 48 of 100 | 48% | 24 of 72 | 8 of 11 | 16 of 17 | 48 of 99 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 78 of 177 | 44% | 39 of 127 | 28 of 38 | 11 of 12 | 65 of 161 | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Felipe | 14 of 27 | 51% | 3 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 23 of 57 | 40% | 7 of 35 | 8 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 23 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Felipe | 28 of 57 | 49% | 15 of 42 | 6 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 28 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 27 of 75 | 36% | 12 of 55 | 12 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 71 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Felipe | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 28 of 45 | 62% | 20 of 37 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 33 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Yorgan De Castro to win, likely by knockout. He notes De Castro's hard leg kicks and power, while Felipe is hittable. However, he is concerned about De Castro's low volume and poor performance against Hardy, so he is not confident enough to parlay.
Daniel leans with De Castro, noting his powerful kicks and heavy hands, but is not confident because De Castro gassed after the first round against Greg Hardy. He calls it a dog or pass situation at the betting window due to the price and lack of proven cardio. He acknowledges Felipe's brawling style but sees De Castro's low kicks as a key weapon.
The host gives the technical advantage to De Castro, citing his leg kicks and striking polish. He expects De Castro to win by third-round TKO after wearing Felipe down. However, he finds the line too wide to bet either side confidently.
The Guru picks Yorgan De Castro, citing his good kicks and hand speed. He believes De Castro's loss to Greg Hardy was due to a broken foot and that he will land clean on Felipe's chin, predicting a first-round KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Hardy | 0 | 55 of 124 | 44% | 66 of 135 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 0 | 24 of 69 | 34% | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greg Hardy | 0 | 25 of 55 | 45% | 25 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 0 | 15 of 41 | 36% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Greg Hardy | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Greg Hardy | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 25 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Hardy | 55 of 124 | 44% | 21 of 80 | 7 of 9 | 27 of 35 | 55 of 124 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 24 of 69 | 34% | 6 of 44 | 2 of 7 | 16 of 18 | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greg Hardy | 25 of 55 | 45% | 13 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 10 | 25 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 15 of 41 | 36% | 6 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 15 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Greg Hardy | 16 of 31 | 51% | 5 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 12 | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 4 of 11 | 36% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Greg Hardy | 14 of 38 | 36% | 3 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 13 | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yorgan De Castro | 5 of 17 | 29% | 0 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Greg Hardy, citing his athleticism, reach advantage, and improvement. He compares the fight to Hardy's win over Juan Adams. He acknowledges De Castro's power but expects Hardy to be busier and win by first-round knockout. He thinks the line at minus 190 is a bit wide and would not bet it due to heavyweight volatility.
Daniel Levi picks Greg Hardy, citing his athleticism, size, and UFC experience. He notes Hardy's improvement in patience and jab, and believes De Castro may gas in later rounds. Levi acknowledges De Castro's power and timing but thinks Hardy's reach advantage and ability to avoid big shots will be key.
Matt is high on De Castro, citing his leg kicks, power, and movement. He believes De Castro can neutralize Hardy's movement with calf kicks and eventually finish him. He sees Hardy as overvalued and plans to bet De Castro if the line reaches +200. He picks De Castro by second-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yorgan De Castro | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 17 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Justin Tafa | 1 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yorgan De Castro | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 17 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Justin Tafa | 1 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yorgan De Castro | 6 of 9 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 4 of 12 | 33% | 2 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yorgan De Castro | 6 of 9 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 4 of 12 | 33% | 2 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Yorgan De Castro to win, likely by knockout. He notes De Castro's hard leg kicks and power, while Felipe is hittable. However, he is concerned about De Castro's low volume and poor performance against Hardy, so he is not confident enough to parlay.
Daniel leans with De Castro, noting his powerful kicks and heavy hands, but is not confident because De Castro gassed after the first round against Greg Hardy. He calls it a dog or pass situation at the betting window due to the price and lack of proven cardio. He acknowledges Felipe's brawling style but sees De Castro's low kicks as a key weapon.
The host gives the technical advantage to De Castro, citing his leg kicks and striking polish. He expects De Castro to win by third-round TKO after wearing Felipe down. However, he finds the line too wide to bet either side confidently.
The Guru picks Yorgan De Castro, citing his good kicks and hand speed. He believes De Castro's loss to Greg Hardy was due to a broken foot and that he will land clean on Felipe's chin, predicting a first-round KO.
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