UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana Next Fight
Age 31
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 245 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 250 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Carlos Felipe
4.88 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
5.6 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Yorgan De Castro
2.46 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
3.85 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
77.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Carlos Felipe - Fight History
LOSS vs Andrei Arlovski
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · Oct 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrei Arlovski 0 83 of 172 48% 84 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 73 of 172 42% 73 of 172 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrei Arlovski 0 26 of 51 50% 26 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 12 of 33 36% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrei Arlovski 0 28 of 67 41% 28 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 30 of 74 40% 30 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Andrei Arlovski 0 29 of 54 53% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 31 of 65 47% 31 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrei Arlovski 83 of 172 48% 49 of 133 11 of 15 23 of 24 81 of 170 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 73 of 172 42% 53 of 145 15 of 21 5 of 6 54 of 148 12 of 14 7 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrei Arlovski 26 of 51 50% 9 of 32 7 of 9 10 of 10 26 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 12 of 33 36% 3 of 22 6 of 8 3 of 3 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Andrei Arlovski 28 of 67 41% 17 of 54 3 of 4 8 of 9 27 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 30 of 74 40% 25 of 67 4 of 5 1 of 2 27 of 71 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Andrei Arlovski 29 of 54 53% 23 of 47 1 of 2 5 of 5 28 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 31 of 65 47% 25 of 56 5 of 8 1 of 1 15 of 44 9 of 11 7 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Angelo picks Arlovski reluctantly due to his age (42) but believes his new bouncing style, footwork, and jab will allow him to outpoint Felipe. Felipe is a young boxer with good volume and cardio but lacks power. Arlovski can also initiate grappling if needed. Angelo is concerned about Arlovski's chin but thinks he can avoid danger. He likes Arlovski at 8200 in DraftKings and the more more on monkey knife fight.

more more on monkey knife fight
"Andre lowsky's the pick i'm doing it reluctantly because he is 42 at some point he's gonna look 42"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Felipe

Big Brady leans toward Carlos Felipe by decision, citing Felipe's youth, durability, and volume. He notes Arlovski is 42 and inconsistent, sometimes low-volume. However, he dislikes Felipe's close split decisions and showboating. He has no interest in betting this fight.

by decision
"i'm actually going to lean with the younger guy and carlos felipe i don't like it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Cody picks Arlovski as a slight lean, arguing that Arlovski has become the ultimate gatekeeper who beats young up-and-comers who aren't the real deal. He points out that Felipe's wins have been close split decisions against low-level competition, and that Arlovski's smart game plan of smothering Felipe against the cage and outpointing him at distance should work. He expects the fight to go to decision.

over 2.5 rounds (juiced to -210), fight goes to decision
"as of the gun to my head pick i'm gonna take on geraldowski for now"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 14, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Felipe

Daniel picks Carlos Felipe, noting the odds are close and everyone is on Arlovski. He sees Felipe as a young, improving fighter who likes to bang, and he dismisses the controversial Jake Collier fight as a win for Felipe. He acknowledges Arlovski's veteran savvy and speed but thinks Felipe can win a close, possibly controversial split decision.

Split decision
"give me the other side let me go with carlos felipe be a close maybe even controversial split decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Arlovski will use his outside striking, jabs, and leg kicks to outpoint Felipe, who lacks finishing ability in the UFC. Felipe's success comes in the pocket, but Arlovski will avoid brawling. The fight is likely to go the distance, with Arlovski winning a decision.

Over 2.5 rounds -200, Arlovski by decision +160, fight starts round 3 -225
"i like uh arlowski arlovsky by decision uh over two and a half is the prop that i like the most"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Felipe

Paul leans toward Felipe edging out a decision based on volume and forward pressure, but admits he's not confident. He notes that Arlovski is the more technical striker but Felipe throws more volume and is durable. He says he's not willing to step in front of it with his money.

"i'm going to lean towards felipe edging out a decision just based on volume and staying and moving forward"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski by decision, noting the even odds and Felipe's lack of KO power. He argues that only fighters who obliterate competition beat Arlovski, and Felipe's close fights with Jake Collier and Justin Tafa are red flags. He expects Arlovski's footwork and jab to neutralize Felipe's body shots, leading to a 30-27 decision.

decision win 30-27
"gotta go with andre alofsky here moves his feet very light very bouncy"
WIN vs Jake Collier
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Felipe 0 94 of 192 48% 94 of 192 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jake Collier 0 130 of 281 46% 130 of 281 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Felipe 0 25 of 43 58% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Collier 0 42 of 92 45% 42 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Felipe 0 28 of 58 48% 28 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Collier 0 34 of 78 43% 34 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carlos Felipe 0 41 of 91 45% 41 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jake Collier 0 54 of 111 48% 54 of 111 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Felipe 94 of 192 48% 64 of 153 25 of 33 5 of 6 92 of 190 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jake Collier 130 of 281 46% 86 of 229 20 of 26 24 of 26 127 of 277 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Felipe 25 of 43 58% 13 of 26 10 of 14 2 of 3 25 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jake Collier 42 of 92 45% 23 of 69 4 of 7 15 of 16 42 of 91 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Carlos Felipe 28 of 58 48% 15 of 44 10 of 11 3 of 3 28 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jake Collier 34 of 78 43% 23 of 65 7 of 8 4 of 5 33 of 77 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Carlos Felipe 41 of 91 45% 36 of 83 5 of 8 0 of 0 39 of 89 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jake Collier 54 of 111 48% 40 of 95 9 of 11 5 of 5 52 of 109 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Felipe

Big Brady picks Carlos Felipe despite acknowledging it's a close fight. He notes Felipe has better boxing, cardio, and durability, while Collier has a reach and height advantage but has been knocked out three times. He expects a close decision win for Felipe, though he is not overly confident.

Felipe by decision
"I'm going to say that philippe does win a very close decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Cody leans towards Collier as an underdog, citing his impressive cardio and output in his last fight. He thinks Collier's pressure and volume will overwhelm Felipe, who has shown cardio issues and inability to get off the cage. He notes Felipe's lack of power.

"i'm going to give collier a shot here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Felipe

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Felipe to win by knockout in the first round. He emphasizes Felipe's durability, high boxing volume, and youth, contrasting with Jake Collier's questionable win over John Volante. Levi notes that Collier was a former middleweight who ballooned up and that Felipe's power and pressure will be too much. He also mentions that Felipe's weakness is the clinch or ground, but Collier is not a strong grappler.

by knockout in the first round
"i'm going with carlos boy felipe by vicious knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Jake Collier

Collier has a more varied striking attack with leg kicks, body kicks, and punches, while Felipe is a headhunter who telegraphs his big shots. Collier's durability should allow him to eat Felipe's power, and he can mix in takedowns and clinch work to control the fight. Expect Collier to win via decision, as Felipe's takedown defense is questionable and his output is low.

Collier by decision
"I will continue to go out there and back Collier here at plus money... I think that we'll see an overall mma performance from him... I do like Collier and I'll take him to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Paul leans towards Collier, noting his improved cardio and striking output in his last fight. He thinks Collier can pressure Felipe and exploit his weaknesses against the cage. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.

"i think collier is the play here at plus 145"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Carlos Felipe

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Felipe based on his superior cardio, boxing, and toughness. He notes Felipe's close fight with Sergey Spivak and his youth and chin advantage. He expects Felipe to win a 29-28 decision, possibly losing one close round to Collier.

"i'm gonna go with carlos felipe getting the better of jake collier here over the three rounds"
WIN vs Justin Tafa
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Felipe 0 77 of 142 54% 77 of 142 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Justin Tafa 0 86 of 148 58% 109 of 171 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Felipe 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 26 of 47 55% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Felipe 0 35 of 61 57% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Justin Tafa 0 34 of 53 64% 34 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carlos Felipe 0 33 of 52 63% 33 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 26 of 48 54% 49 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Felipe 77 of 142 54% 46 of 103 28 of 36 3 of 3 64 of 128 13 of 14 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 86 of 148 58% 50 of 107 20 of 24 16 of 17 74 of 133 12 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Felipe 9 of 29 31% 3 of 20 4 of 7 2 of 2 9 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 26 of 47 55% 7 of 27 8 of 9 11 of 11 26 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Felipe 35 of 61 57% 22 of 45 12 of 15 1 of 1 28 of 53 7 of 8 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 34 of 53 64% 23 of 40 7 of 9 4 of 4 32 of 50 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Carlos Felipe 33 of 52 63% 21 of 38 12 of 14 0 of 0 27 of 46 6 of 6 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 26 of 48 54% 20 of 40 5 of 6 1 of 2 16 of 36 10 of 12 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Felipe

Big Brady picks Carlos Felipe to win by decision, citing his volume and cardio for a heavyweight. He notes that Felipe has a good chin and has never been knocked out, while Tafa has power but is less active. He likes the over 1.5 rounds due to Felipe's durability and lack of one-punch knockout power. He thinks if there is a finish, it would be from Tafa, but Felipe's chin should hold.

over 1.5 rounds (likes the play)
"i'm going to take carlos philippe to win a a decision here just by throwing more being more active"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Felipe

Daniel Levi leans Carlos Felipe due to more experience and volume, though he acknowledges Tafa's power and potential improvement. He notes Felipe's fight with Spivak showed durability, and he mixes body punches. He calls it a possible dollar pass due to heavyweight variance.

"i gotta go with felipe i i just feel like he's got more experience throws more punches"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Felipe

Felipe has a well-rounded game with good volume, pressure, and durability. He outworked Jorgen de Castro and showed a solid chin. Tafa relies on his power, especially his uppercut, but his defense is poor and he has cardio issues. Felipe's head movement and defensive striking should keep him safe, and his pace will overwhelm Tafa as the fight goes on. Tafa's only path to victory is an early KO, but Felipe has never been knocked out. Felipe by decision or late finish is likely.

Felipe by decision is the primary pick; over 1.5 rounds is also a consideration.
"i still like felipe in this fight minus 200 is not too bad of a line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Felipe

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Felipe over Justin Tafa, citing Felipe's better cardio, chin, and fight IQ. He expects Felipe to weather Tafa's early power, clinch against the cage, and slow Tafa down for a late second or third round TKO. He notes Tafa's tendency to rush recklessly and his lack of cardio in longer fights.

late second or third round TKO
"i think felipe is going to go out there and get the job done i don't see tough rko in him i see him swinging really hard and philippe clinching up with him pushing him against the cage making him …"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Felipe 0 48 of 100 48% 113 of 174 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:13
Yorgan De Castro 0 78 of 177 44% 88 of 187 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Felipe 0 14 of 27 51% 14 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yorgan De Castro 0 23 of 57 40% 23 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Felipe 0 28 of 57 49% 29 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Yorgan De Castro 0 27 of 75 36% 28 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
3 Carlos Felipe 0 6 of 16 37% 70 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:43
Yorgan De Castro 0 28 of 45 62% 37 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Felipe 48 of 100 48% 24 of 72 8 of 11 16 of 17 48 of 99 0 of 1 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 78 of 177 44% 39 of 127 28 of 38 11 of 12 65 of 161 13 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Felipe 14 of 27 51% 3 of 14 2 of 3 9 of 10 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 23 of 57 40% 7 of 35 8 of 14 8 of 8 23 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Felipe 28 of 57 49% 15 of 42 6 of 8 7 of 7 28 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 27 of 75 36% 12 of 55 12 of 16 3 of 4 24 of 71 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Carlos Felipe 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 28 of 45 62% 20 of 37 8 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 33 10 of 12 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

Big Brady picks Yorgan De Castro to win, likely by knockout. He notes De Castro's hard leg kicks and power, while Felipe is hittable. However, he is concerned about De Castro's low volume and poor performance against Hardy, so he is not confident enough to parlay.

knockout
"give me the castro probably gets a knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

Daniel leans with De Castro, noting his powerful kicks and heavy hands, but is not confident because De Castro gassed after the first round against Greg Hardy. He calls it a dog or pass situation at the betting window due to the price and lack of proven cardio. He acknowledges Felipe's brawling style but sees De Castro's low kicks as a key weapon.

dog or pass situation; mentions De Castro's low kicks; notes Felipe is emotional and talks in the cage
"i'm gonna slightly lean with jorgan nicastro i feel like he kicks like a mule he hits hard"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

The host gives the technical advantage to De Castro, citing his leg kicks and striking polish. He expects De Castro to win by third-round TKO after wearing Felipe down. However, he finds the line too wide to bet either side confidently.

"i feel like jorgen could get it done in the third round especially"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

The Guru picks Yorgan De Castro, citing his good kicks and hand speed. He believes De Castro's loss to Greg Hardy was due to a broken foot and that he will land clean on Felipe's chin, predicting a first-round KO.

Prediction: KO round 1
"i'm probably going to be going with jorgen de castro here because although a lot of people seem to remember him just by his big ko"
LOSS vs Serghei Spivac
Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · Jul 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 44 of 121 36% 44 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 73 of 149 48% 165 of 253 3 of 7 42% 0 0 4:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 23 of 59 38% 23 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Serghei Spivac 0 20 of 58 34% 20 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 29 of 73 39% 31 of 75 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:21
3 Serghei Spivac 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 24 of 31 77% 114 of 133 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 44 of 121 36% 30 of 107 14 of 14 0 of 0 44 of 121 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 73 of 149 48% 72 of 148 1 of 1 0 of 0 47 of 121 3 of 3 23 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 23 of 59 38% 14 of 50 9 of 9 0 of 0 23 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0 19 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Serghei Spivac 20 of 58 34% 15 of 53 5 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 29 of 73 39% 28 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0 27 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Serghei Spivac 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 24 of 31 77% 24 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 23 of 25
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady is confident in Spivac despite acknowledging he's not great. He notes Spivac's submission skills (60% of wins by submission) and believes Felipe's layoff (3 years, steroid suspension) and poor gas tank will be decisive. He predicts Spivac will take Felipe down and win a grinding decision.

"I'm going to go Sergey Spivak there to win by a very ugly weird decision there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Felipe

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Felipe to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Felipe is an unknown quantity with power, and that Spivak has looked slow and been taken down in recent fights. He thinks Felipe might come out and bomb on Spivak early. He is curious about Felipe's ground game but believes the power advantage could end the fight quickly.

Felipe by first-round knockout
"i'm gonna go with uh the brazilian here ... i'll say my first round knockout"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

The MMA Guru picks Spivac because he is the bigger guy with better experience, having faced tougher competition like Walt Harris and Tybura. He notes Felipe hasn't fought anyone of Spivac's level and rates Spivac's losses higher than Felipe's wins. He also mentions Spivac has grappling to fall back on and is slightly better on the feet.

"I feel as though spear that's gonna get the job done not just because he's a bigger guy but he's got better experience"
Yorgan De Castro - Fight History
LOSS vs Jarjis Danho
KO (punch) R1 3:02 · UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland · Apr 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jarjis Danho 0 2 of 11 18% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Yorgan De Castro 1 10 of 12 83% 10 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jarjis Danho 0 2 of 11 18% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Yorgan De Castro 1 10 of 12 83% 10 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jarjis Danho 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 10 of 12 83% 3 of 4 1 of 2 6 of 6 8 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jarjis Danho 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 10 of 12 83% 3 of 4 1 of 2 6 of 6 8 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

Big Brady picks De Castro to win by first-round knockout, but he is not confident and is passing on betting. He notes De Castro is the more active fighter, while Danho has a massive layoff (4.5 years) and poor cardio. Brady acknowledges the fight is low level and could be sloppy, but he expects De Castro's power and activity to prevail. He would not lay the -300 price.

"i'm going to take the castro to win by knockout i think the layoff is just insane"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

Cody picks De Castro, citing Danho's poor performance and long layoff. He notes De Castro's leg kicks and power, while Danho is a brute with no plan B. He parlayed De Castro with Vettori.

Parlayed De Castro with Vettori; over 1.5 rounds; over 2.5 rounds; fight goes the distance
"i parlayed them with marv inventory because i couldn't help myself"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

Daniel Levi picks Yorgan De Castro, calling Jarjis Danho a quitter and a weasel who tries to get DQ wins. He thinks De Castro's leg kicks and improved get-up game will be key, and that Danho fades after the first three minutes. Levi predicts a knockout, possibly from leg kicks setting up a head shot. He also notes that De Castro has less than 10 pro fights but this is a winnable matchup.

Knockout
"I'm gonna go with york into castro to low kick him and just win the fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

The host is not confident in De Castro at -285, calling him a 'can crusher' and noting his poor performance against Carlos Felipe. He thinks Danho is even worse, but De Castro's output is questionable. He picks De Castro to win by decision, but strongly advises staying away from betting this fight. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds as the only play.

Over 1.5 rounds
"stay the [ __ ] away from this fight that's all i'm going to say stay away from this fight my pick is going to be to castro"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

Paul picks De Castro, calling Danho a 'weasel' who looks for ways out. He notes Danho's lack of UFC quality and De Castro's power. He thinks De Castro wins by decision or late finish.

"jorgen de castro for the win"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

The MMA Guru picks Yorgan De Castro by first-round KO. He notes De Castro has good power and a big KO win over Justin Tafa. He criticizes Danho as a 37-year-old who arguably shouldn't be in the UFC and had a draw in his last fight. He thinks De Castro, fighting for his career, will be urgent and finish Danho early.

first round knockout
"i'm gonna go with jorgen de castro getting this one done by first round ko against georgia stan"
LOSS vs Carlos Felipe
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Felipe 0 48 of 100 48% 113 of 174 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:13
Yorgan De Castro 0 78 of 177 44% 88 of 187 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Felipe 0 14 of 27 51% 14 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yorgan De Castro 0 23 of 57 40% 23 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Felipe 0 28 of 57 49% 29 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Yorgan De Castro 0 27 of 75 36% 28 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
3 Carlos Felipe 0 6 of 16 37% 70 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:43
Yorgan De Castro 0 28 of 45 62% 37 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Felipe 48 of 100 48% 24 of 72 8 of 11 16 of 17 48 of 99 0 of 1 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 78 of 177 44% 39 of 127 28 of 38 11 of 12 65 of 161 13 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Felipe 14 of 27 51% 3 of 14 2 of 3 9 of 10 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 23 of 57 40% 7 of 35 8 of 14 8 of 8 23 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Felipe 28 of 57 49% 15 of 42 6 of 8 7 of 7 28 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 27 of 75 36% 12 of 55 12 of 16 3 of 4 24 of 71 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Carlos Felipe 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 28 of 45 62% 20 of 37 8 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 33 10 of 12 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

Big Brady picks Yorgan De Castro to win, likely by knockout. He notes De Castro's hard leg kicks and power, while Felipe is hittable. However, he is concerned about De Castro's low volume and poor performance against Hardy, so he is not confident enough to parlay.

knockout
"give me the castro probably gets a knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

Daniel leans with De Castro, noting his powerful kicks and heavy hands, but is not confident because De Castro gassed after the first round against Greg Hardy. He calls it a dog or pass situation at the betting window due to the price and lack of proven cardio. He acknowledges Felipe's brawling style but sees De Castro's low kicks as a key weapon.

dog or pass situation; mentions De Castro's low kicks; notes Felipe is emotional and talks in the cage
"i'm gonna slightly lean with jorgan nicastro i feel like he kicks like a mule he hits hard"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

The host gives the technical advantage to De Castro, citing his leg kicks and striking polish. He expects De Castro to win by third-round TKO after wearing Felipe down. However, he finds the line too wide to bet either side confidently.

"i feel like jorgen could get it done in the third round especially"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

The Guru picks Yorgan De Castro, citing his good kicks and hand speed. He believes De Castro's loss to Greg Hardy was due to a broken foot and that he will land clean on Felipe's chin, predicting a first-round KO.

Prediction: KO round 1
"i'm probably going to be going with jorgen de castro here because although a lot of people seem to remember him just by his big ko"
LOSS vs Greg Hardy
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Greg Hardy 0 55 of 124 44% 66 of 135 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Yorgan De Castro 0 24 of 69 34% 24 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Greg Hardy 0 25 of 55 45% 25 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yorgan De Castro 0 15 of 41 36% 15 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Greg Hardy 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yorgan De Castro 0 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Greg Hardy 0 14 of 38 36% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Yorgan De Castro 0 5 of 17 29% 5 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Greg Hardy 55 of 124 44% 21 of 80 7 of 9 27 of 35 55 of 124 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 24 of 69 34% 6 of 44 2 of 7 16 of 18 24 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Greg Hardy 25 of 55 45% 13 of 40 4 of 5 8 of 10 25 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 15 of 41 36% 6 of 30 1 of 3 8 of 8 15 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Greg Hardy 16 of 31 51% 5 of 18 1 of 1 10 of 12 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 4 of 11 36% 0 of 6 0 of 1 4 of 4 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Greg Hardy 14 of 38 36% 3 of 22 2 of 3 9 of 13 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 5 of 17 29% 0 of 8 1 of 3 4 of 6 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

Big Brady picks Greg Hardy, citing his athleticism, reach advantage, and improvement. He compares the fight to Hardy's win over Juan Adams. He acknowledges De Castro's power but expects Hardy to be busier and win by first-round knockout. He thinks the line at minus 190 is a bit wide and would not bet it due to heavyweight volatility.

Hardy by first round knockout; line minus 190 is a little wide
"I like Greg Hardy here and I like him quite a bit. Um he's way more athletic fighter."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

Daniel Levi picks Greg Hardy, citing his athleticism, size, and UFC experience. He notes Hardy's improvement in patience and jab, and believes De Castro may gas in later rounds. Levi acknowledges De Castro's power and timing but thinks Hardy's reach advantage and ability to avoid big shots will be key.

"I'm gonna go with Hardy here I think the athleticism will be too much the size even the UFC experience at this point so I'm gonna go with Greg Hardy to get this done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

Matt is high on De Castro, citing his leg kicks, power, and movement. He believes De Castro can neutralize Hardy's movement with calf kicks and eventually finish him. He sees Hardy as overvalued and plans to bet De Castro if the line reaches +200. He picks De Castro by second-round TKO.

under 1.5 rounds (+130), De Castro by second-round TKO
"I really like Jurgen to cash flow in this fight... my pick is gonna be Jurgen de Castro via second round TKO"
WIN vs Justin Tafa
KO (punch) R1 2:10 · UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · Oct 05, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yorgan De Castro 0 6 of 9 66% 17 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
Justin Tafa 1 4 of 12 33% 6 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yorgan De Castro 0 6 of 9 66% 17 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
Justin Tafa 1 4 of 12 33% 6 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yorgan De Castro 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 4 of 6 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 4 of 12 33% 2 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yorgan De Castro 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 4 of 6 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 4 of 12 33% 2 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 4 0 of 0
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

Big Brady picks Yorgan De Castro to win, likely by knockout. He notes De Castro's hard leg kicks and power, while Felipe is hittable. However, he is concerned about De Castro's low volume and poor performance against Hardy, so he is not confident enough to parlay.

knockout
"give me the castro probably gets a knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

Daniel leans with De Castro, noting his powerful kicks and heavy hands, but is not confident because De Castro gassed after the first round against Greg Hardy. He calls it a dog or pass situation at the betting window due to the price and lack of proven cardio. He acknowledges Felipe's brawling style but sees De Castro's low kicks as a key weapon.

dog or pass situation; mentions De Castro's low kicks; notes Felipe is emotional and talks in the cage
"i'm gonna slightly lean with jorgan nicastro i feel like he kicks like a mule he hits hard"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

The host gives the technical advantage to De Castro, citing his leg kicks and striking polish. He expects De Castro to win by third-round TKO after wearing Felipe down. However, he finds the line too wide to bet either side confidently.

"i feel like jorgen could get it done in the third round especially"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Yorgan De Castro

The Guru picks Yorgan De Castro, citing his good kicks and hand speed. He believes De Castro's loss to Greg Hardy was due to a broken foot and that he will land clean on Felipe's chin, predicting a first-round KO.

Prediction: KO round 1
"i'm probably going to be going with jorgen de castro here because although a lot of people seem to remember him just by his big ko"