UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Sep 28, 2019 · Middleweight · Completed
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Age 40
Height 5' 11"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 38
Height 5' 10"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - John Phillips
1.72 SLpM
34.0% Str. Acc.
4.03 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
7.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Alen Amedovski
0.99 SLpM
30.0% Str. Acc.
3.85 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
John Phillips - Fight History
LOSS vs JunYong Park
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · Oct 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
JunYong Park 0 10 of 21 47% 260 of 350 4 of 4 100% 0 0 13:11
John Phillips 0 5 of 14 35% 13 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 JunYong Park 0 3 of 9 33% 51 of 79 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:09
John Phillips 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 JunYong Park 0 1 of 6 16% 143 of 187 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:35
John Phillips 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 JunYong Park 0 6 of 6 100% 66 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:27
John Phillips 0 2 of 9 22% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
JunYong Park 10 of 21 47% 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 19
John Phillips 5 of 14 35% 1 of 10 2 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 JunYong Park 3 of 9 33% 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 9
John Phillips 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 JunYong Park 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6
John Phillips 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 JunYong Park 6 of 6 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 4
John Phillips 2 of 9 22% 1 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2020 (4 days before fight)
JunYong Park

Big Brady is confident in Park due to his significant striking volume advantage and Phillips' terrible 11% takedown defense. He expects Park to take Phillips down and control him on the ground, or out-strike him on the feet. He notes Phillips' only path is a knockout, but Park has never been knocked out.

"park for me i'm gonna go with park here to win i'm gonna go by decision he's not much of a finisher"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2020 (7 days before fight)
JunYong Park

The MMA Guru picks JunYong Park because John Phillips has been figured out: opponents can bait his wild overhands and take him down. Park is a great grappler who outgrappled Marc-Andre Barriault, and Phillips is older and coming off a beatdown. He expects Park to grind out a unanimous decision or get a rear-naked choke in the second round.

rear naked choke in the second round
"i think i'm going to go with parque and young just baiting out the shots from john phillips ducking underneath them getting himself to take down and maybe even getting this done by a rear naked choke in the second …"
LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev
Submission (D'Arce choke) R2 1:12 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Ige · Jul 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Phillips 0 43 of 52 82% 124 of 140 2 of 2 100% 1 0 5:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Phillips 0 40 of 49 81% 118 of 133 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:55
2 Khamzat Chimaev 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Phillips 0 3 of 3 100% 6 of 7 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Phillips 43 of 52 82% 40 of 49 1 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 42 of 51
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Phillips 40 of 49 81% 37 of 46 1 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 39 of 48
2 Khamzat Chimaev 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Phillips 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
John Phillips vs. Khamzat Chimaev

Round 1
Welsh fighters will try to go two for two tonight as “The Welsh Wrecking Machine” Phillips (22-9, 1 NC; 1-3 UFC) squares off with the unbeaten Chimaev (6-0, 0-0 UFC), for whom the latter was recently described as “Khabib Nurmagomedov 2.0” by manager Ali Abdelaziz. Can Chimaev maintain his 100 percent finish rate, or will the Welshman spoil his party? Like referee Herb Dean, we are about to find out in this preliminary headliner. Chimaev lets fly a head kick, and immediately chains that into shooting for a takedown. The newcomer hits it with ease, and opens up with sledgehammer left hands as Phillips tries to walk up the fence. Phillips sits up but as he does, he gets slashed open with some thudding left hands. Chimaev pulls Phillips’ legs out, and the Welshman rolls over. Chimaev instantly takes his back, and starts pounding him with right hands as he fishes for a choke on the bloodied fighter. Phillips complains that his opponent is grabbing his gloves, and after a brief bit of confusion, Chimaev picks up where he left off with punches to the side of the head as Phillips tries to get up desperately. Phillips continues to absorb these short punches in the face as blood continues to flow, and he rolls over to get out. Chimaev follows him and starts hacking at him with elbows. “The Welsh Wrecking Machine” is getting wrecked as Chimaev keeps raining down punches, and a big mouse has started to form above his right eyebrow. Chimaev keeps punching from a short distance, and Phillips attempts to stand up but sits down as his neck is nearly caught in a guillotine choke. Chimaev knees him in the side a few times, and a few punches soften Phillips up until Chimaev fishes for a rear-naked choke. The Welshman rolls again, but Chimaev is on him like a cheap suit and maintains a steady pace of ground-and-pound. Phillips goes back to his knees, and Chimaev ends the round by continuing to attack. The only question from that brutal round is whether it merited an incredibly rare 10-7 score from the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-7 Chimaev

Round 2
In just over 10 seconds into the second, Chimaev hits a smooth takedown as Phillips is exasperated. Phillips crawls to his knee and gets up against the fence, but the Swedish resident gets right back to pounding on him like the last devastating round. Phillips rolls to his back to try to get to some sort of survival position, and he keeps rolling through to get to his knees.
At that second, Chimaev snatches up the neck in the form of brabo choke, and he latches on the choke and secures it tightly. “Borz” squeezes with all his might, and Phillips falls to his back and taps out to surrender.
What an overwhelming beating, and what a statement to put the still undefeated Chimaev on the map.

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. John Phillips R2 1:12 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev, calling him 'the real deal' with great ground game and power. He notes John Phillips has a 100% finish rate but has lost by submission four times, and Chimaev will take him down and submit him. He predicts a first-round submission, though he acknowledges Phillips has a puncher's chance.

Parlayed Chimaev with Calvin Kattar; says he wouldn't feel comfortable in a parlay due to Phillips' danger but expects Chimaev to roll
"jamya if he is - 335 which is you know pretty wide for a guy that's making his UFC debut against john phillips"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel Levi picks Khamzat Chimaev, noting his wrestling ability to take Phillips down and avoid Phillips' first-round knockout power. He believes Chimaev is smart enough to not stand and bang, and will win by decision or submission.

by decision or submission
"i'ma go hamza to either get a decision or a submission here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev despite the short notice and weight class change (welterweight moving to middleweight). He notes Chimaev has fought decent opponents and has KO power, while John Phillips is inconsistent and was embarrassed in his last fight against Jack Marshman. Chimaev is younger, bigger, and rangier, and the Guru expects a first-round KO due to Chimaev's speed and flurries.

first round KO
"I'm gonna go cams action may of I like John Phillips but he is not good and if he wins he can just be a meme of the division but you know cams at cheer Chimayo vis a welterweight coming …"
KO (punches) R1 0:17 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Sep 28, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
John Phillips 0 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alen Amedovski 1 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 John Phillips 0 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alen Amedovski 1 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
John Phillips 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alen Amedovski 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 John Phillips 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alen Amedovski 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2
LOSS vs Jack Marshman
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Mar 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Marshman 0 31 of 149 20% 31 of 149 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Phillips 1 32 of 95 33% 35 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Marshman 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Phillips 1 11 of 32 34% 14 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
2 Jack Marshman 0 9 of 50 18% 9 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Phillips 0 10 of 23 43% 10 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Marshman 0 11 of 68 16% 11 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Phillips 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Marshman 31 of 149 20% 19 of 135 10 of 11 2 of 3 31 of 149 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Phillips 32 of 95 33% 15 of 70 8 of 15 9 of 10 29 of 90 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Marshman 11 of 31 35% 8 of 28 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Phillips 11 of 32 34% 3 of 18 4 of 10 4 of 4 9 of 28 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jack Marshman 9 of 50 18% 4 of 43 5 of 6 0 of 1 9 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Phillips 10 of 23 43% 5 of 18 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jack Marshman 11 of 68 16% 7 of 64 3 of 3 1 of 1 11 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Phillips 11 of 40 27% 7 of 34 2 of 3 2 of 3 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Kevin Holland
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:05 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · Nov 24, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 123 of 187 65% 164 of 236 5 of 6 83% 2 0 3:21
John Phillips 0 51 of 154 33% 53 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 60 of 90 66% 60 of 90 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:03
John Phillips 0 12 of 44 27% 13 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Kevin Holland 0 49 of 79 62% 50 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
John Phillips 0 38 of 102 37% 39 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
3 Kevin Holland 0 14 of 18 77% 54 of 66 4 of 4 100% 2 0 3:18
John Phillips 0 1 of 8 12% 1 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 123 of 187 65% 74 of 127 33 of 42 16 of 18 95 of 153 11 of 12 17 of 22
John Phillips 51 of 154 33% 21 of 108 16 of 29 14 of 17 43 of 132 7 of 16 1 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 60 of 90 66% 31 of 56 20 of 25 9 of 9 51 of 80 6 of 6 3 of 4
John Phillips 12 of 44 27% 2 of 26 3 of 8 7 of 10 11 of 40 1 of 4 0 of 0
2 Kevin Holland 49 of 79 62% 30 of 54 12 of 16 7 of 9 44 of 73 5 of 6 0 of 0
John Phillips 38 of 102 37% 18 of 74 13 of 21 7 of 7 32 of 90 6 of 12 0 of 0
3 Kevin Holland 14 of 18 77% 13 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 18
John Phillips 1 of 8 12% 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. John Phillips

Round 1
The southpaw Phillips presses forward at the bell, kept at range by a few push kicks from his taller opponent. Holland gets backed up to the wall and has to bail out as Phillips fires heavy combinations. Phillips keeps pressing and walks into a body kick from Holland, and it looks like a bad one. Phillips backpedals immediately, doubled over and protecting his body. Somehow, despite taking several additional front kicks and punches, Phillips stays on his feet and in the fight. Halfway through a busy opening round, Phillips is on the advance again. Holland catches him in the Thai clinch and drives a pair of hard knees up the center, but again Phillips swings back and Holland circles away after taking a glancing punch. Holland comes over the top of Phillips’ next pair of hooks with a clean counter left. After landing another body kick, Holland hits Phillips with an accidental kick to the groin. Referee Peter Hickmott calls time, Phillips takes 30 or 40 seconds to recover, and the middleweights get back to action with 90 seconds remaining. Both men stand still in place in the center, waiting for the other to strike. Holland acts first, hitting Phillips with another kick to the body, now one to the lead leg. Phillips blocks a right high kick but eats a straight right hand behind it. Inside the 10-second clapper, Holland drives Phillips to the ground with a flying knee, then tries to pound him out and runs out of time.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round 10-8 Holland
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-8 Holland
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-8 Holland

Round 2
Holland lands a couple leg kicks before Phillips tags him with a hook and puts him on the mat in the center of the cage. Holland pops back to his feet and gives Phillips a touch of gloves and a nod of the head. Phillips rushes the American against the fence and swarms him with hooks; Holland puts up a high guard and makes a show of rolling as he blocks the punches, then circles away. Phillips keeps pressing and takes a stiff jab, now another hard shot to the body, and suddenly the Welshman looks to be slowing down. Halfway through the fight now, and Phillips continues to come forward, walking into front kicks and one-twos from the rangy Holland. Phillips leaps forward with a series of big right hands, one of which rattles the brain of Holland, who’s forced to circle away in a hurry. Phillips clinches Holland against the fence with 60 seconds remaining. Holland breaks free and looks up to the big screen to check on a newly opened cut over his right eye. Holland finishes the round strong, punishing Phillips with several hard body kicks and a left high kick that goes through Phillips’ glove.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round 10-9 Holland
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Holland
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Holland

Round 3
Holland hits an easy takedown in the opening seconds, changing levels as Phillips overcommits on a wind-up right hand. Phillips eats several punches before climbing back to his feet. As soon as they stand, Holland lifts and dumps Phillips back to the mat, then begins peppering the Welshman with punches while trying to take the back. Phillips is on his knees, leaning forward, Holland on his back with one hook in. Holland sits up to drill Phillips in the side of the head with an elbow, then pulls Phillips backward, still trying to establish back-mount. Holland still only has one hook in when he tries a rear-naked choke, allowing Phillips to twist out of it and drive forward. Holland takes him straight back to the ground, then steps over to full mount with two minutes left to fight. Phillips bucks and rolls, winding up on top in Holland’s half guard. Holland catches an arm as Phillips drops punches but can’t finish the armbar attempt. With 70 seconds remaining, Holland sits up and ankle-picks Phillips down at the base of the fence. This time, Holland explodes into the back-take and wraps his arm around Phillips’ neck for the RNC before Phillips can defend. Phillips resists for a few seconds, recognizes he’s stuck and taps out.

The Result
Kevin Holland def. John Phillips via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R3 4:05
LOSS vs Charles Byrd
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:58 · UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · Mar 17, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Byrd 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Phillips 0 11 of 14 78% 34 of 41 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Byrd 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Phillips 0 11 of 14 78% 34 of 41 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Byrd 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Phillips 11 of 14 78% 11 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Byrd 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Phillips 11 of 14 78% 11 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 13
Alen Amedovski - Fight History
LOSS vs Joe Pyfer
TKO (punches) R1 3:55 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joe Pyfer 1 14 of 45 31% 14 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alen Amedovski 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joe Pyfer 1 14 of 45 31% 14 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alen Amedovski 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joe Pyfer 14 of 45 31% 12 of 42 1 of 2 1 of 1 13 of 44 0 of 0 1 of 1
Alen Amedovski 11 of 30 36% 4 of 19 2 of 4 5 of 7 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joe Pyfer 14 of 45 31% 12 of 42 1 of 2 1 of 1 13 of 44 0 of 0 1 of 1
Alen Amedovski 11 of 30 36% 4 of 19 2 of 4 5 of 7 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Angelo picks Pyfer, praising his power, pressure, and wrestling. He notes that Amedovski is a knockout-or-bust fighter who has lost three in a row and looked disinterested. Angelo believes Pyfer can win by knockout or submission and is safe for parlays.

Safe for parlays.
"i love joe in this matchup punch for punch he should be the heavier hitting striker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady is very confident in Joe Pyfer to win by first-round submission. He notes that Pyfer is well-rounded with good wrestling, grappling, and power, while Amedovski has looked horrible in the UFC with a 0% takedown defense. Brady expects Pyfer to take the easiest path: take down Amedovski, beat him up, and submit him. He also mentions that Amedovski's only threat is landing a big shot in the first 60 seconds, but Pyfer should have him covered everywhere.

first round submission
"it's going to be joseph heifer to win joseph pifer to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Cody thinks Pyfer has Amedovski beat everywhere: striking, wrestling, and ground game. He notes Amedovski's poor takedown defense and chin issues. Cody calls Pyfer a top ticket play and a good parlay piece, though he acknowledges the price is steep.

"i think piper's got him beat all over and piffer's definitely a top ticket or top two ticket play this week"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Daniel Levi picks Joe Pyfer to win but refuses to bet at minus 425. He thinks Pyfer is overrated, with low volume and a susceptibility to being taken down, as seen in his contender series fight. He expects Pyfer to win due to Amedovski's poor UFC performances, but views Pyfer as a -400 type and plans to fade him in future fights against better competition.

"I'm gonna pick joe pie for to win this fight but you ain't gonna catch me dead laying no minus 425 on on a guy like that"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Jacob is very confident in Pyfer, noting that Amedovski looked like he didn't want to be there in his last fight. He believes Pyfer is hungry and can finish early. Jacob wanted to bet under 1.5 rounds but the odds moved. He thinks Pyfer can win by knockout or submission.

Wanted to bet under 1.5 rounds at -115.
"i would be very very surprised if allen wins this matchup"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Amedovski has shown terrible fight IQ and durability, getting knocked out quickly by John Phillips and submitted by Joseph Holmes. Pyfer is bigger, faster, and more skilled everywhere. Pyfer should take this to the ground and submit him or knock him out early. The under 1.5 rounds is a strong play. I took a sprinkle on Pyfer by submission at +550 but he may look for the knockout instead.

Pyfer by submission at +550 (sprinkle), under 1.5 rounds at -200
"I think Piper gets him down early or just knocks him out early there's a reason the under one and a half is currently hanging around minus 200"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Paul calls Amedovski the worst fighter on the roster and says Pyfer should roll. He notes Pyfer's well-rounded skills and that Amedovski has been finished by lower-level opponents. Paul says he wouldn't bat an eye at people parlaying Pyfer.

"don't let friends bet on alan amadovsky like do not the worst guy on the roster"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer by KO in the first round. He views Alen Amedovski as a fighter paid to lose, noting he was easily submitted by Joseph Holmes and KO'd by John Phillips. He thinks Amedovski is small for the division, out of shape, and 34 years old. He believes Pyfer's power, reach advantage, youth, and momentum will lead to a first-round knockout.

first round KO
"i think we're gonna see him sleep allen amidovsky in the first round"
LOSS vs Joseph Holmes
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:04 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joseph Holmes 1 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:21
Alen Amedovski 0 1 of 8 12% 1 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joseph Holmes 1 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:21
Alen Amedovski 0 1 of 8 12% 1 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joseph Holmes 16 of 23 69% 11 of 17 2 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 8
Alen Amedovski 1 of 8 12% 1 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joseph Holmes 16 of 23 69% 11 of 17 2 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 8
Alen Amedovski 1 of 8 12% 1 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Angelo picks Joseph Holmes because of his size, versatility, and ability to mix striking and grappling. He notes that Amedovski has been on a long layoff and has shown holes in his grappling. Holmes's length and takedown threat should open up his hands. Angelo will likely stay away from betting but trusts Holmes to get the win.

"i like joseph holmes here i love his size i love his versatility he can strike and he can grapple"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Big Brady picks Joseph Holmes to win by first-round submission, but calls it a sketchy fight between two low-level fighters. He notes Holmes has a size advantage and a brown belt in BJJ, while Amedovski has poor takedown defense and ground game. However, Amedovski hits hard and could knock Holmes out early. He says laying -200 on Holmes is not ideal.

first round sub
"give me homes to win but yeah laying minus 200 on joseph holmes just not seemed like the best idea in the world holmes holmes first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Cody picks Holmes, citing his size advantage (6'4", 80-inch reach), youth (26), and multiple paths to victory. He notes Amedovski's poor takedown defense, lack of ground game, and three-year layoff. He believes Holmes' length, clinch knees, and improved cardio after a full camp will be too much for Amedovski.

"multiple paths of victory i think for joseph holmes but we need to put a little faith in them right and again at 26 and i think he's still with james krause i think that those improvements are going to …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He mentions Holmes in the context of live betting spots, suggesting Holmes after round one if grappling is heavy, but does not make a clear pick or provide analysis.

"holmes after round one i'd say"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Paul is hesitant but leans Holmes. He notes Amedovski's terrible UFC performances and long layoff, but also acknowledges Holmes' green stand-up and cardio issues. He thinks Holmes' size and grappling should be enough, but is not fully confident.

"i'm really struggling with this one what's what's your take here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

The MMA Guru picks Joseph Holmes but is hesitant. He thinks Holmes has a massive advantage on the feet and will land good shots while Amedovski struggles with takedowns. He trusts Holmes more now that he has octagon experience. He predicts a second-round TKO with a fadeaway hook.

second round TKO
"i'm gonna go joseph holmes"
LOSS vs John Phillips
KO (punches) R1 0:17 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Sep 28, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
John Phillips 0 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alen Amedovski 1 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 John Phillips 0 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alen Amedovski 1 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
John Phillips 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alen Amedovski 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 John Phillips 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alen Amedovski 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2
LOSS vs Krzysztof Jotko
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Krzysztof Jotko 0 43 of 69 62% 111 of 149 4 of 4 100% 0 0 9:37
Alen Amedovski 0 6 of 17 35% 6 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Krzysztof Jotko 0 12 of 20 60% 16 of 24 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:25
Alen Amedovski 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
2 Krzysztof Jotko 0 17 of 32 53% 45 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:38
Alen Amedovski 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Krzysztof Jotko 0 14 of 17 82% 50 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:34
Alen Amedovski 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Krzysztof Jotko 43 of 69 62% 37 of 56 4 of 10 2 of 3 8 of 25 0 of 0 35 of 44
Alen Amedovski 6 of 17 35% 6 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Krzysztof Jotko 12 of 20 60% 9 of 13 1 of 5 2 of 2 6 of 14 0 of 0 6 of 6
Alen Amedovski 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 5
2 Krzysztof Jotko 17 of 32 53% 17 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 26
Alen Amedovski 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Krzysztof Jotko 14 of 17 82% 11 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 12
Alen Amedovski 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0