Career Averages - Jared Cannonier
Career Averages - Jack Hermansson
Jared Cannonier - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 20 of 57 | 35% | 46 of 88 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 8:14 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 36 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 2 of 16 | 12% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:10 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 12 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 24 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 20 of 57 | 35% | 10 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 11 of 45 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 8 |
| Michael Page | 29 of 55 | 52% | 19 of 45 | 8 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 2 of 16 | 12% | 0 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Page | 11 of 20 | 55% | 5 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 10 of 25 | 40% | 3 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Page | 11 of 20 | 55% | 9 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 8 of 16 | 50% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Michael Page | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes this is a tailor-made matchup for MVP, as his speed and karate style will be too much for the powerful but slow Cannonier. He notes MVP has outstruck everyone in the UFC, including Ian Garry, and can pop in and out safely. He is surprisingly confident in MVP.
Big Brady picks Michael Page to win by decision. He notes Page is an incredible striker with a unique style that makes him hard to hit, and he has outlanded top strikers like Ian Garry and Kevin Holland. He thinks Cannonier will struggle to take Page down, as Cannonier has only one fight with more than one takedown. He favors Page heavily in distance striking and thinks Page wins a decision, possibly a knockout. He also mentions a prop bet on Page under 54.5 significant strikes.
Connor picks Page, arguing that Page can frustrate Cannonier from range and that Cannonier is slowing down and less likely to have fight-stealing moments. He notes that Page is comfortable with boring fights and can make Cannonier look slow and cumbersome. However, he acknowledges that Cannonier's strength in the clinch could be a problem, but Page's ability to tie up after striking may mitigate that.
The host believes Page's elusive striking style will be too much for the veteran Cannonier. He predicts Page will pick apart Cannonier and eventually find a knockout in the second round.
The Guru picks Michael Venom Page to win by decision over Jared Cannonier. He believes Cannonier will be too technical and hesitant to pressure Page effectively, instead opting for a low-output striking match. The Guru notes that Cannonier has a history of not taking risks, as seen in his fights with Marvin Vettori and Paulo Costa. He expects Page to outpoint Cannonier with movement and occasional highlights, winning a dull decision.
Zane picks Page, noting that Page is a master of body language and can make even close rounds feel like his. He believes Cannonier is a middleweight version of Josh Koscheck, a tough but limited fighter who is winding down. Zane thinks Page's ability to pick his shots and avoid engagement will frustrate Cannonier, who doesn't cut off the cage well. He sees Page as a meme fighter who can carve a path to the top of the division.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 2 | 98 of 201 | 48% | 109 of 215 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 2 | 93 of 221 | 42% | 95 of 225 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 22 of 38 | 57% | 31 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 2 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 26 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 33 of 72 | 45% | 35 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 25 of 68 | 36% | 26 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 1 | 34 of 78 | 43% | 34 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 43 of 87 | 49% | 43 of 87 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 1 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 98 of 201 | 48% | 59 of 157 | 20 of 23 | 19 of 21 | 69 of 161 | 20 of 25 | 9 of 15 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 93 of 221 | 42% | 65 of 188 | 21 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 85 of 208 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 22 of 38 | 57% | 10 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 30 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 25 of 66 | 37% | 16 of 53 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 56 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 33 of 72 | 45% | 15 of 50 | 11 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 28 of 65 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 25 of 68 | 36% | 16 of 59 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 34 of 78 | 43% | 27 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 59 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 15 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 43 of 87 | 49% | 33 of 76 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 41 of 85 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 9 of 13 | 69% | 7 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40) as a key factor. He notes that Cannonier's chin and speed are declining, and while Cannonier may have early success, Rodrigues has enough power and grappling to turn the fight. Angelo also mentions he might bet the under on 4.5 rounds if the prop is available.
Big Brady picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout, noting Cannonier's decline in durability and performance. Cannonier was outclassed by Caio Borralho and wobbled by Vettori. Rodrigues is younger and has power, though his own chin is questionable. He expects Rodrigues to land a big shot and finish Cannonier.
Connor picks Jared Cannonier, though hesitantly. He acknowledges Cannonier has lost a step and is on a slide, but believes this is a level of fight Cannonier can still win. He points to Cannonier's hand speed, counter-punching, and ability to time counters against Rodrigues' defensive liabilities. Connor also notes that Cannonier has been competitive with top fighters like Imavov and Bahaio, and that Rodrigues' tendency to get caught by surprise makes him susceptible to Cannonier's power. However, he admits the version of Cannonier that gets big finishes might be gone, and he can also envision Cannonier getting crushed.
Lucrative James picks Gregory Rodrigues despite acknowledging his suspect chin, because Jared Cannonier is 40 years old and has taken severe damage in recent fights, especially the brutal KO loss to Caio Borralho just five and a half months ago. He believes Cannonier's age and accumulated punishment make him vulnerable to Rodrigues' power and pressure. However, he notes that Rodrigues gets hit often and has been knocked out by lesser fighters, so he is not fully confident. He also mentions that Cannonier is live for a KO and may play a small prop on Cannonier by KO. He strongly recommends betting 'fight doesn't go to distance' at -250, seeing value there.
Cannonier is on a downward slope at nearly 41 years old. Rodrigues will use pace, pressure, and power to take advantage of Cannonier's diminishing durability and speed. Cannonier has been hurt in recent fights, and Rodrigues finishes him in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40), recent damage, and lack of recent knockouts. He highlights Rodrigues' size, grappling advantage, power, and youth. He believes Rodrigues has multiple paths to victory: knockout, takedown and ground control, or submission, while Cannonier has fewer options.
Zane picks Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Cannonier has lost a step and no longer has the finishing ability to capitalize on Rodrigues' defensive lapses. He notes that Cannonier's tactical, non-strategic style means he gives opponents infinite chances, and with age and declining durability, those chances are now breaking against him. Zane also highlights Rodrigues' improved wrestling and strategic approach, as seen in the Brad Tavares fight, as key factors. He acknowledges Cannonier could still catch Rodrigues, but trusts the math less for Cannonier now.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 83 of 254 | 32% | 83 of 254 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 1 | 153 of 255 | 60% | 156 of 258 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 26 of 70 | 37% | 26 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 15 of 58 | 25% | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 37 of 58 | 63% | 37 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 4 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 11 of 42 | 26% | 11 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 1 | 50 of 69 | 72% | 53 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 83 of 254 | 32% | 57 of 206 | 11 of 24 | 15 of 24 | 82 of 252 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 153 of 255 | 60% | 106 of 197 | 26 of 37 | 21 of 21 | 129 of 224 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 12 of 34 | 35% | 4 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 15 of 32 | 46% | 7 of 22 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 26 of 70 | 37% | 18 of 53 | 4 of 9 | 4 of 8 | 25 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 21 of 43 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 15 of 58 | 25% | 14 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 37 of 58 | 63% | 24 of 44 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 36 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Caio Borralho | 19 of 50 | 38% | 11 of 38 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 30 of 53 | 56% | 19 of 37 | 5 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Caio Borralho | 11 of 42 | 26% | 10 of 38 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 50 of 69 | 72% | 42 of 60 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 28 |
Angelo picks Caio Borralho, citing his high fight IQ and slick grappling. He notes that Borralho is a 'fighting nerd' who makes smart adjustments mid-fight, and that his head is massive and hard to put out. He acknowledges Cannonier's power and the short notice for both, but believes Borralho's intelligence and size advantage will carry him.
Cody thinks the betting line on Borralho is inflated. He notes Cannonier is a tough veteran who has fought top competition and has good takedown defense and get-up game. He believes Borralho may try to be entertaining instead of wrestling, which plays into Cannonier's hands. He also mentions Cannonier's price of +190 is too good to pass up.
Daniel Vreeland is not fully confident but leans toward Jared Cannonier. He argues that Borralho's competition has been unranked and his striking volume is low, while Cannonier has proven output against top fighters. He worries about Cannonier's age and recent stoppage loss but believes the volume and experience advantage will be decisive unless Cannonier has declined overnight.
JP picks Borralho by decision, noting he is 6-0 in the UFC and hasn't lost since 2015. He highlights Borralho's grappling match against heavyweight Jilton Almeida as evidence of his skills. He thinks Cannonier is 40 and inconsistent. Brevin agrees, picking Borralho, praising his striking style similar to Michael Venom Page with explosive entries, and his good grappling. He thinks Cannonier will try to pressure but Borralho's in-and-out movement will be effective.
Paul agrees with Cody, favoring Cannonier because of his experience and plus money. He notes Cannonier is 40 and coming off knee surgery but has fought the best. He thinks Borralho might try to be aggressive to impress, which could lead to his demise. Paul also mentions that Borralho's low volume and risk-averse style might not work against a durable veteran.
The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho by rear-naked choke. He notes Cannonier's takedown defense is good but he gives up his back often. He believes Borralho's back-take ability and momentum from his win over Paul Craig will be key. He also cites Cannonier's age (40) and quick turnaround after a near-finish loss to Nassourdine Imavov. He trusts Borralho's improving standup and the Fighting Nerds team.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 64 of 109 | 58% | 102 of 152 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 6:18 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 82 of 134 | 61% | 106 of 159 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 38 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:16 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 28 of 46 | 60% | 36 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 33 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 4 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 21 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassourdine Imavov | 64 of 109 | 58% | 42 of 81 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 17 | 58 of 100 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 82 of 134 | 61% | 61 of 112 | 16 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 64 of 114 | 17 of 19 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassourdine Imavov | 21 of 32 | 65% | 13 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 20 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 14 of 30 | 46% | 7 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Nassourdine Imavov | 17 of 32 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 28 of 46 | 60% | 19 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 34 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nassourdine Imavov | 18 of 30 | 60% | 12 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 25 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 21 of 32 | 65% | 18 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Nassourdine Imavov | 8 of 15 | 53% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 19 of 26 | 73% | 17 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jared Cannonier, citing his impressive performance against Marvin Vettori where he showed forward pressure, takedowns, and cardio. He acknowledges that Imavov is good and just dominated Roman Dolidze, but he is impressed with Cannonier's last fight. He thinks the best version of Cannonier wins, and he is crossing his fingers that version shows up.
Big Brady picks Jared Cannonier to win by split decision. He notes that Cannonier is 40 but looks better than ever, with impressive wins over Marvin Vettori and Sean Strickland. He expects Imavov to have early success but fade, while Cannonier's five-round cardio and takedown defense will allow him to take over. He predicts a close 48-47 split decision.
Cody picks Cannonier based on his proven cardio, durability, and experience against top competition. He notes Cannonier's ability to maintain high volume over five rounds, as seen in the Marvin Vettori fight where he landed 241 significant strikes. Cody acknowledges the concerns about Cannonier's age (40) and the two-year layoff due to an MCL tear, but believes his gas tank and power will be too much for Imavov, who has shown cardio issues in the past. He expects Cannonier to win a competitive decision.
Daniel leans towards Imavov due to his youth, speed, and improved defense since the Strickland fight. He worries about Imavov's high-energy style causing a late fade, allowing Cannonier to take over in the championship rounds. He notes Cannonier's durability and high output, especially in the Vettori fight, but sees Imavov's early movement and speed as key to banking rounds. Ultimately, he calls it a tough fight that could go either way.
Jacob is very confident in Jared Cannonier, stating he will not pick against him until someone beats him over five rounds. He notes that Imavov might have early success, but Cannonier's veteran savvy and cardio will take over. He predicts Cannonier wins a decision and makes another title run. He considered Cannonier as lock of the week but the odds were too close.
Cannonier has power, speed, and explosiveness to crash the pocket and disrupt Imavov's range striking. Imavov may get demoralized when his range control fails, as seen against Strickland. Cannonier can land big shots, change levels for takedowns, and grind out a decision or even a KO. At +105, he's a solid underdog bet.
Paul leans towards Cannonier but is hesitant due to the injury and layoff. He notes that Cannonier's price at plus money seems like good value given his resume, but the torn MCL and age are concerns. Paul thinks Cannonier's reach advantage and pressure will be key, and he expects Imavov to struggle with Cannonier's volume and power as the fight goes on. He predicts a competitive fight but sees Cannonier getting the nod.
The Guru picks Cannonier because Imavov slows down in fights and lacks finishing instinct, as seen against Roman Dolidze and Buckley. He notes Cannonier gets better as the fight goes on and can walk Imavov down, chew up his legs, and work him against the cage in the later rounds. He says if it were a three-rounder he'd take Imavov, but in a five-rounder Cannonier builds into it and wins a split decision. He also mentions Cannonier looked phenomenal against Vettori and that Imavov hasn't shown he's clearly better than that level of middleweight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 153 of 301 | 50% | 154 of 302 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 241 of 411 | 58% | 257 of 428 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 38 of 71 | 53% | 38 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 29 of 66 | 43% | 29 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 24 of 50 | 48% | 24 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 82 of 125 | 65% | 94 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 31 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 49 of 81 | 60% | 52 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 37 of 76 | 48% | 37 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 32 of 57 | 56% | 32 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 23 of 54 | 42% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 49 of 82 | 59% | 50 of 83 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 153 of 301 | 50% | 117 of 257 | 15 of 21 | 21 of 23 | 148 of 293 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 241 of 411 | 58% | 173 of 339 | 39 of 43 | 29 of 29 | 195 of 354 | 26 of 31 | 20 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 38 of 71 | 53% | 31 of 63 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 29 of 66 | 43% | 14 of 51 | 8 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 28 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 24 of 50 | 48% | 21 of 44 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 22 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 82 of 125 | 65% | 62 of 104 | 15 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 58 of 96 | 12 of 13 | 12 of 16 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 31 of 50 | 62% | 23 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 49 of 81 | 60% | 36 of 66 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 41 of 70 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 37 of 76 | 48% | 26 of 63 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 37 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 32 of 57 | 56% | 22 of 46 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 32 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 23 of 54 | 42% | 16 of 45 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 49 of 82 | 59% | 39 of 72 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 66 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 9 |
Angelo picks Marvin Vettori, trusting his chin and pressure. He notes that Vettori's takedowns and volume should be effective against Jared Cannonier, who can be gun shy at 39. Vettori lands more significant strikes and has only lost to top competition. Angelo has a half unit moneyline bet on Vettori at minus 145.
Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori to win by decision. He believes Vettori will implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, pushing Cannonier against the cage and taking him down, similar to Israel Adesanya's second fight strategy. He notes Cannonier hasn't faced many wrestlers recently and has been taken down in the past by Derek Brunson and David Branch. Brady emphasizes Vettori's superior cardio, toughness, and durability, and thinks he can win minutes with control and grappling over 25 minutes. He does not expect a finish but sees a clear path to a decision win.
Cody initially gravitates toward Vettori due to his elite generalist skills, cardio, and durability, but he reconsiders after reviewing Cannonier's last fight against Sean Strickland, where Cannonier landed 141 significant strikes and proved he can maintain pace for five rounds despite his muscular build. He notes that Vettori's wrestling may not be good enough to take Cannonier down and hold him there, and that Vettori's last fight against Roman Dolidze was a close call where many thought he lost. Cody ultimately leans Cannonier for landing more damaging strikes, but acknowledges the fight could go either way and recommends betting live rather than pre-fight.
Connor picks Vettori, citing his consistency, durability, and high output. He argues that Vettori is more reliable minute-to-minute than Cannonier, and that Cannonier's lack of a systematic approach will allow Vettori to outwork him. Connor expects a five-round decision where Vettori lands more strikes and edges out rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Jared Cannonier, citing comparable volume but a significant power advantage for Cannonier. He notes Cannonier's high output against Strickland (140+ significant strikes) and believes Cannonier lands the harder shots that impress judges. He expects a decision win for Cannonier, though acknowledges a finish is possible. He also mentions Cannonier's leg kicks as a key weapon and Vettori's susceptibility to them. He got Cannonier at +100 and expects the fight to be close but favors Cannonier's power.
Cannonier lands more significant strikes over a prolonged period, similar to what Roman Dolidze did but for longer. Vettori's striking is improving but he will struggle to implement his clinch/grappling game because Cannonier is tough to keep in one spot and difficult to hold down. Cannonier keeps the fight upright, uses leg kicks and movement, and lands big shots down the middle. Vettori is very durable so Cannonier wins by decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting the line has shortened from +130s to near pick'em, which he considers sharp. He thinks Vettori can take Cannonier down but cannot hold him down and maintain position. He likes the over 2 takedowns prop for Vettori but is not fully committed. He leans Cannonier for landing more damaging strikes over 25 minutes but says anything could happen.
The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier over Marvin Vettori, arguing Cannonier is more dynamic with leg kicks, body kicks, and elbows, while Vettori mostly boxes. He compares their common opponents: Cannonier held his own against Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya, while Vettori was schooled by both. He also notes Cannonier knocked out Derek Brunson, while Vettori went to a decision. He predicts a 49-46 decision win for Cannonier.
Zane picks Cannonier because he believes Cannonier's power will be the deciding factor. He notes that Cannonier is not consistent but has a 'get out of jail free card' with his power, and that Vettori has been pushed out of his fight by power punchers like Whittaker and Adesanya. Zane expects a close fight where Cannonier's power wins out over Vettori's durability and output.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 141 of 310 | 45% | 141 of 310 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 152 of 400 | 38% | 157 of 410 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 16 of 43 | 37% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 13 of 48 | 27% | 17 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 28 of 73 | 38% | 28 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 33 of 69 | 47% | 33 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 35 of 81 | 43% | 35 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 27 of 61 | 44% | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 33 of 87 | 37% | 34 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 40 of 79 | 50% | 40 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 43 of 111 | 38% | 43 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 141 of 310 | 45% | 57 of 187 | 60 of 88 | 24 of 35 | 141 of 310 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 152 of 400 | 38% | 126 of 365 | 24 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 152 of 400 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 16 of 43 | 37% | 3 of 26 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 9 | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 13 of 48 | 27% | 9 of 43 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 25 of 58 | 43% | 6 of 28 | 11 of 18 | 8 of 12 | 25 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 28 of 73 | 38% | 23 of 64 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 28 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 33 of 69 | 47% | 12 of 40 | 15 of 21 | 6 of 8 | 33 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 35 of 81 | 43% | 28 of 73 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 27 of 61 | 44% | 14 of 39 | 11 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 33 of 87 | 37% | 29 of 83 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 40 of 79 | 50% | 22 of 54 | 16 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 40 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 43 of 111 | 38% | 37 of 102 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 43 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Strickland (-115), Cannonier (-105)
Round 1
It’s a striker’s delight for the final UFC match of this year, and it might be one with immediate championship implications depending on the result. Coming off his unsuccessful jaunt for the belt, the lead-fisted Cannonier (15-6, 8-6 UFC) is motivated for one last title run and has to get through Strickland (25-4, 12-4 UFC) to do so. On the other hand, Strickland’s last time out saw him get crushed by the current champ Alex Pereira, one in which he promises would be different should they meet again. Herb Dean will serve as the referee for the final UFC fight of the year, and it begins with a smile from the two fighters and an enthusiastic fist bump. The first strike that lands is a leg kick from Cannonier that bounces off the kneecap. Strickland takes notes and measures his jab, pawing it out a few times, and Cannonier bears down on him with two wide punches. Another Cannonier kick makes Strickland pick up the leg to attempt to check it, but he does not block it. Cannonier kicks high and then goes low to the calf again, and this one lands flush. Cannonier fakes an overhand right, and he lands at the end of a second one. Strickland does not bat an eye, reaching with jabs and slapping a kick to the hip. Cannonier steps through two jabs to plant a right hand on the jaw, and he closes in on Strickland as Strickland jabs repeatedly. A pair of oblique kicks land to the knee for Cannonier, and Strickland starts getting in his groove of jabs and short arcing lefts. “The Killa Gorilla” hits air when he launches an overhand right, and Strickland sees it coming and dodges a second. Cannonier plants the ball of his foot on the ribcage, and he backs Strickland up and cannot quite get around the guard or connect cleanly with a kick. Cannonier kicks to the side, and it gets caught. Strickland tosses Cannonier down to the floor, and Cannonier muscles his way back up without staying grounded. They both get back to their feet, and Strickland holds his man from behind while smacking him with right hands. Strickland does not go after a takedown, and he bails on the clinch when Cannonier turns around. Cannonier slowly walks forward, and he fakes with an overhand right and smashes his shin into the calf. Strickland takes a funny step and retreats, and he measures his jab to fluster the advancing Alaskan. A kick from Cannonier careens off the guard, and he fires one off with the other leg to the calf. One more on the inside makes Strickland preemptively pick up his lead leg, possibly showing that the kicks are bothering him. He skates out of the way of an advancing Cannonier, who cannot catch him with a power blow before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Round 2
The middleweights touch ‘em up to start Round 2, and Cannonier delivers a leg kick home to begin. The kicks, and faked kicks, are making Strickland flinch. Cannonier winds up with a kick to the body, and when it gets caught, he is thrown to the mat again. Cannonier somersaults away and gets to his feet before Strickland can bear down on him and grab him, and they resume in the center of the cage. Strickland flashes out several jabs, and Cannonier is more reliant on power punches and kicks. Strickland dances out of the way when a right hand comes his direction, and he times the lunges of “The Killa Gorilla” with sharp jabs. The jab pace from Strickland increases as he sticks it on Cannonier’s face again and again, and he keeps it busy to not let Cannonier crowd him. Cannonier reaches the body with a right hand, and it is one-and-done while Strickland keeps jabbing him. Two heavy leg kicks find their target on the calf, and the second, Strickland swings his leg with it to take some of the sting out of it. Cannonier keeps beating on that left leg, forcing Strickland to start thinking about switching stances. Cannonier swings with all his might and comes up short with a haymaker of a right hand, and Strickland sees it and evades it. Cannonier fires another, and the left to set it up is the one that connects while the overhand right whiffs. Strickland sticks his man with a jab and a right hand, and he splits the guard with repeated jabbing. Cannonier cannot find the spot with his right hand, and they start talking to each other as Cannonier tells his foe to sit still. Cannonier kicks low and punches high, and the first lands while the second misses. “Tarzan” remains composed, swinging from side to side and dodging most of the power strikers while peppering the lunging Cannonier. As if we were shot out of a cannon, Cannonier charges, and his punches would blow back the hair if Strickland had any. Strickland keeps his distance and pops Cannonier with a few more lengthy punches until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 3
Cannonier flicks his hand out to receive the half-hearted glove touch, and they pick up right where they left off, with Strickland imposing his jab-heavy game plan. Cannonier lightly oblique kicks the knee, and he gets stunned by a piston-like jab from Strickland. Cannonier connects with a solid leg kick, and he jabs to the midsection. Strickland splits the guard with a few more jabs and a push kick as well, and he starts to follow his jabs with slapping right hands on the side of the head. Cannonier kicks the body, and it hits the block without issue. A Cannonier overhand is blocked, and he kicks on the other side suddenly to slip beneath the guard. Strickland continues to fluster the power puncher with his effective jabs, and Cannonier cannot quite bridge the gap to land with his overhand right. “The Killa Gorilla” goes after the lead leg again, and Strickland’s expression has not changed one iota even while battling it out against a heavy striker. Cannonier finds the end of a right hand, and he chains another left hook into a right hand that knocks Strickland back into the wall. Strickland walks it off and continues to pepper with jabs, and he chains four punches together to drive Cannonier back. Cannonier loads up with two power blows, but he misses the mark cleanly by a matter of inches. Settling for a leg kick, Cannonier maintains a relatively high guard to anticipate the jabs that come. Strickland successfully checks a swinging leg kick, and he pecks at Cannonier with punches in small bunches. Cannonier swings for the bleachers and nearly ends up in the stands after missing with his powerful blows, and they begin to start chatting again. Cannonier targets the body with straighter lefts, and Strickland actively jabs comfortably. Cannonier scores at the end of a left hand, and the close round ends. It would not be surprising if judges possibly had it three rounds in favor of either man now.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 4
Between rounds, Strickland’s coach slaps him in the face to get him going, as if Strickland weren’t already dealing with enough strikes coming his way. The top middleweights move into the championship rounds actively throwing hands, and Cannonier continues to press forward while Strickland is comfortable fighting off his back foot with jabs peppering his foe. Strickland gets off a trio of punches and a kick to the body, and he is answered with a leg kick that makes him pick it up ever so briefly. Cannonier walks through a jab to throw, but he does not swing it, just eating punches for nothing. Strickland powerfully checks another kick and plants two punches on the chin, and Cannonier is stalled out in front of his foe who is now starting to walk him down. Cannonier takes three clean punches that sting him, and he shakes it out but does not throw back. The jab has neutralized the offense for the last minute or two, and he connects with a one-two to decent effect. Cannonier sinks in an inside leg kick after a lull in offense, and he wings a heavy blow that glances off the shoulder. Strickland’s footwork and head movement keep him safe from harm when his jab does not keep Cannonier off of him. Strickland gets off a short left hand to drive Cannonier away, and he whips a high kick up and has a front kick graze off the jaw. Cannonier loads up with an overhand right and gets knocked back with a right hand for his handiwork. Cannonier takes a couple jabs on the jaw in an effort to march through then and throw hands, but Strickland sees them coming and moves. Strickland wraps his hands around the guard, and Cannonier finally finds his intended target with a few power punches. Strickland ties him up after absorbing the heavy shots, and he backs up against the wall and smiles. Strickland scores in response, and Cannonier comes at him right to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 5
The last round of the last fight of the UFC this year is on, and the coaches are extremely fired up and trying to channel their energy to their fighters, not knowing how the judges are scoring this fight. Cannonier lashes out with a low kick, and Strickland pins a few punches on the chin with a little more heat on them. While jabbing and parrying, Strickland throws a little harder at his opponent. Cannonier jabs the body and hand-fights to find a way in, and he scores a left hand. Strickland staggers him with a few right hands over the top, and Cannonier talks to him and tells him to stand in front of him and trade. Cannonier swings hammers, and Strickland sticks and moves with a double jab and a right hand down the pipe. Cannonier rings his man’s bell with a right hand on the temple, and he snaps the head back with another as Strickland has to blink it out. “Tarzan” recovers and pushes out jabs and a short combo, and he absorbs a low kick on the way back. Cannonier unloads with two big punches that knock the head around, ignoring the jab so that he can connect cleanly. This second land from Cannonier wakes Strickland up, who strings together a lengthy combination as his nose begins to bleed. Strickland gets back into his jab-heavy approach, swatting away the punches that zoom past him. Cannonier sets up a jab and chain a right hand into it, and Strickland is getting marked up as Cannonier is ignoring jabs to strike. Cannonier swings with a back fist that goes wide, and he loads up on a left that breezes past the chin. The final minute begins with a brief brawl, and Cannonier strikes and gets knocked back by the responsive salvo. Strickland walks into a winging left hand and still stays composed sticking out jabs, and he catches an overswinging Cannonier with a few strikes. They both put big power into their strikes, and they throw fire in the form of punches, kicks and anything else they can muster until the bitter end. Neither man goes down, and they have reached the final bell. It truly could go either way. It was a fight. With this event in the books, we have reached the end of the year, with 42 UFC fight cards carrying on across 2022. Our next play-by-play will run on Jan. 14 in what could be a fun Fight Night event with a fantastic co-main event. Thank you for joining us this year on all of the action that the UFC has had to put on. We will be here for the next year, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier (48-47 Strickland)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (48-47 Strickland)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier (48-47 Strickland)
The Official Result
Jared Cannonier def. Sean Strickland via Split Decision (49-46, 46-49, 49-46)
Angelo picks Jared Cannonier, believing he is the more dangerous, stronger, and faster fighter. He thinks Cannonier has a good enough chin to handle Strickland's arm punches but needs to pick up the volume. He notes that if Cannonier lets his hands go, it could be one-sided, but if not, he could get jabbed to death. He considers Strickland overrated.
Big Brady picks Cannonier, liking his power and expecting Strickland to stand and trade. He notes Strickland said he has no game plan and will just walk forward and brawl. He thinks Cannonier will have 25 minutes to land a big shot, especially since Strickland was recently knocked down. He predicts Cannonier wins by knockout, possibly in any round.
Cody picks Strickland, believing he can execute a 25-minute game plan with high volume. He argues Strickland learned from the Pereira loss and can be smarter against Cannonier. He doesn't see Cannonier as an elite finisher like Pereira, so Strickland's durability and volume should earn a decision.
Strickland's style is better suited for Cannonier than for a taller fighter like Alex Pereira. Cannonier's knockout power is overrated due to Strickland's recent KO loss, but Strickland's pressure and volume should wear on Cannonier as the fight goes on. Expect close first two rounds, then Strickland pulls away. Strickland's durability and pace are key.
Paul picks Cannonier because he believes Strickland needs to fight a perfect fight to win, while Cannonier can land a bomb. He notes Cannonier has five-round experience and cardio, and lands more damaging shots. He took Cannonier at plus money, acknowledging it's not a lock but his side.
The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier over Sean Strickland, predicting a second-round KO. He believes Strickland is too basic and readable on the feet, and Cannonier will find his chin with hooks over the jab. He notes Cannonier's reach advantage and leg kicks, and compares Strickland's vulnerability to Alex Pereira's striking. He thinks Cannonier is the next best contender after Whittaker and Adesanya, and that Strickland is not elite at middleweight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 116 of 230 | 50% | 163 of 277 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 90 of 157 | 57% | 141 of 217 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 38 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 40 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 31 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 20 of 26 | 76% | 35 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 116 of 230 | 50% | 60 of 165 | 26 of 31 | 30 of 34 | 114 of 226 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 90 of 157 | 57% | 36 of 89 | 32 of 40 | 22 of 28 | 78 of 143 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 22 of 48 | 45% | 7 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 18 of 28 | 64% | 1 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 14 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 28 of 48 | 58% | 12 of 32 | 9 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 28 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 19 of 31 | 61% | 6 of 15 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 17 of 35 | 48% | 9 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 17 of 36 | 47% | 7 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 27 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 24 of 45 | 53% | 15 of 34 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 16 of 36 | 44% | 8 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 25 of 54 | 46% | 17 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 23 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 20 of 26 | 76% | 14 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Israel Adesanya, citing his superior speed, technique, and counter-striking. He notes that Cannonier offers no takedown threat, making it a pure kickboxing match where Izzy is the better kickboxer. He acknowledges Cannonier's power but believes Izzy's defense and timing will prevail.
Big Brady is confident in Israel Adesanya, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He believes Cannonier has no clear path to victory, as wrestling is unlikely and striking on the outside favors Adesanya. He predicts a decision win, possibly a late finish if Cannonier rushes.
Cody believes Adesanya is the cleaner striker and will manage range effectively. He notes Cannonier tends to wait on his punches and doesn't throw high volume, which will allow Adesanya to dictate the pace. He sees a decision victory or late stoppage as likely.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win, citing his superior range, stance switching, and fight IQ. He notes that Adesanya's fainting game and variety of strikes make him difficult to deal with, and that Cannonier's only path is to capitalize on Adesanya's occasional defensive lapses. Levi acknowledges Cannonier's power and durability but believes Adesanya's technical edge will prevail. He mentions the line is about right and sees no value in betting at -500.
Adesanya is faster and more technical. Cannonier's path to victory is a KO, but Adesanya's defense and movement make that unlikely. Cannonier is not a proactive grappler and doesn't have exceptional cardio. Adesanya should win a decision, possibly a late finish.
Paul thinks the line is too wide but still expects Adesanya to win. He highlights Adesanya's leg kicks and movement to stay out of danger, and notes Cannonier lacks the wrestling to exploit Adesanya. He sees a decision win but won't bet at -500.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya to win by TKO in the fourth round. He believes Adesanya's leg kicks and range will be key, and that Cannonier, at 38, will take risks when behind on the scorecards, leading to a counter shot finish. He notes Cannonier's forearm injury from blocking kicks and expects Adesanya to capitalize.
Jack Hermansson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 1 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 1 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 19 of 38 | 50% | 9 of 25 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 15 of 33 | 45% | 9 of 25 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 19 of 38 | 50% | 9 of 25 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 15 of 33 | 45% | 9 of 25 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Myktybek Orolbai over Jack Hermansson, calling it a life savings on the caveman. He describes Orolbai as a fun grappler with non-stop pressure, cardio, and power, while Hermansson is an aging welterweight moving down in weight, which weakens his chin and cardio. Orolbai's game plan is simple: takedown, smash, win.
Big Brady picks Myktybek Orolbai (Mairbek Tukhugov) by first-round knockout, citing Hermansson's recent brutal KO loss and quick turnaround. He questions Hermansson's chin and weight cut to welterweight, expecting Orolbai to land a big shot and finish him early.
Cody picks Jack Hermansson confidently, pending weight cut. He notes that Orolbai is one-dimensional, a weight bully who relies on takedowns but has poor striking defense. Jack has a reach advantage, excellent wrestling, and BJJ. Cody believes Jack can stuff takedowns and outwork Orolbai, who gasses and gets hit a lot.
Connor picks Orolbai, citing his physicality and grinding style as a problem for Hermansson. He notes that Hermansson is making a drastic weight cut to welterweight, which often fails at this career stage. Connor acknowledges Hermansson's win over Joe Pyfer but sees Orolbai's natural size and aggression as decisive.
Lucrative James picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing the weight class advantage (Orolbai moving up from 155, Hermansson cutting from 185). He believes Orolbai has better striking power, durability, and grappling. He notes Hermansson's recent KO loss and questionable chin. He predicts Orolbai will win, possibly by knockout.
Orolbai is a pressure grappler with solid cardio and finishing ability. Hermansson is dropping to welterweight at 37, with durability concerns and a long layoff. Orolbai should overwhelm Hermansson and finish him via TKO or submission.
Paul picks Jack Hermansson, noting that Orolbai is moving up to welterweight and has struggled with bigger opponents. Jack is a natural welterweight with good wrestling and submission skills. Paul believes Jack's experience and size will be too much for Orolbai, who has poor cardio and striking defense.
The MMA Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai over Jack Hermansson, believing Orolbai's speed and technique will overcome Hermansson's size. He notes Hermansson's KO loss and weight cut to welterweight. He trusts Orolbai's grappling defense and offensive submissions, predicting a win.
Zane picks Hermansson, betting that his size and strength at welterweight will be enough to control Orolbai. He notes that Orolbai's success depends on physicality, and if Hermansson is too strong, Orolbai's one-dimensional pressure will fail. Zane admits it's a risky pick given Hermansson's recent losses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 1 | 18 of 63 | 28% | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 1 | 18 of 63 | 28% | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 30 of 55 | 54% | 24 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 18 of 63 | 28% | 11 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 30 of 55 | 54% | 24 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 18 of 63 | 28% | 11 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Rodrigues's power and early success will carry him in a three-round fight, despite his cardio issues. He compares it to Jack Hermansson's win over Joe Pyfer, where Hermansson survived early and took over, but notes that Rodrigues's loss to Jared Cannonier was in the fourth round and Cannonier hits harder. He is cautious because Rodrigues is a -180 favorite with cardio concerns, and he suggests the over 1.5 rounds might be a good bet.
Big Brady likes Rodrigues stylistically, noting his power advantage over Hermansson. He thinks Hermansson's best path is wrestling, but Rodrigues has good takedown defense and is a BJJ black belt. Brady expects the fight to stay standing, where Rodrigues will land harder shots. He references Marvin Vettori knocking down Hermansson as evidence of his chin vulnerability, and picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout.
The host notes Hermansson's long layoff and believes Rodrigues will dictate the pace with power punching and ground control, winning on the scorecards.
The host picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his activity and more intricate striking compared to Hermansson's last opponent. He believes Rodrigues' grappling is good enough to neutralize Hermansson's, and that Hermansson's long layoff is a concern. He predicts a TKO win for Rodrigues in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 121 of 235 | 51% | 188 of 327 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 92 of 250 | 36% | 95 of 254 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 16 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 22 of 60 | 36% | 22 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 37 of 69 | 53% | 43 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 20 of 65 | 30% | 20 of 65 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 33 of 57 | 57% | 58 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 22 of 46 | 47% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 | |
| 5 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 52 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 4 of 21 | 19% | 6 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 121 of 235 | 51% | 74 of 174 | 15 of 23 | 32 of 38 | 111 of 219 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 10 |
| Joe Pyfer | 92 of 250 | 36% | 56 of 196 | 25 of 34 | 11 of 20 | 92 of 250 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 16 of 38 | 42% | 3 of 21 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 24 of 58 | 41% | 11 of 41 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 7 | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Hermansson | 19 of 38 | 50% | 11 of 28 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 22 of 60 | 36% | 11 of 45 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 22 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jack Hermansson | 37 of 69 | 53% | 25 of 54 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 8 | 33 of 64 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 20 of 65 | 30% | 12 of 54 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jack Hermansson | 33 of 57 | 57% | 21 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 13 | 32 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 22 of 46 | 47% | 19 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jack Hermansson | 16 of 33 | 48% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 |
| Joe Pyfer | 4 of 21 | 19% | 3 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo acknowledges Jack Hermansson's grappling credentials but notes his low takedown accuracy (29%). Joe Pyfer has incredible power, good wrestling, and has trained with high-level grapplers, including a win over Gerald Meerschaert. Angelo believes Pyfer is the real deal and that this is a perfect stepping stone fight. He suggests betting or parlaying Pyfer.
Big Brady picks Joe Pyfer to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Pyfer has dynamite in his hands and hits like a truck, while Hermansson has been knocked out before and struggles to get fights to the mat. He thinks the small cage favors Pyfer's pressure, and he expects Pyfer to knock Hermansson out early. He acknowledges Hermansson's cardio and grappling but believes Pyfer's power is the difference.
Cody sees value in Hermansson as a plus money underdog. He questions Pyfer's cardio and five-round experience, noting Pyfer has never fought three rounds and relies on early finishes against lower-level competition. Hermansson has proven volume and cardio over five rounds, with wins over Chris Curtis and competitive fights with Strickland and Vettori. Cody believes Pyfer's -260 price is too high given the unknowns, making Hermansson a clear dogger pass pick.
Hermansson is a tough veteran with a grappling-heavy approach and good durability. He should be able to weather Pyfer's early power and then take over with his grinding style, potentially winning by decision or late stoppage. Pyfer's cardio is untested against a durable opponent. However, Hermansson is coming off a knee injury, and Pyfer has youth and power. Low confidence pick.
Paul agrees with Cody, calling Hermansson a clear dogger pass. He notes Pyfer's lack of five-round experience and that Hermansson has multiple tools and paths to victory. Paul points out that if the fight goes deep, Hermansson's cardio and volume will be decisive. He also mentions that Pyfer could win by early knockout, but the value is on Hermansson at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer with high confidence, citing Pyfer's knockout power and grappling ability. He notes Pyfer's impressive KO of Gerald Meerschaert and his performance against Abdul Razak Alhassan, where Alhassan seemed scared. He believes Pyfer can put away Hermansson, who he criticizes for losing to Roman Dolidze. He predicts a first-round KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 47 of 79 | 59% | 48 of 80 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 39 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 25 of 40 | 62% | 26 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 21 of 38 | 55% | 32 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 47 of 79 | 59% | 16 of 41 | 11 of 16 | 20 of 22 | 43 of 74 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Jack Hermansson | 25 of 54 | 46% | 23 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 25 of 40 | 62% | 6 of 16 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 15 | 23 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Jack Hermansson | 4 of 16 | 25% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Roman Dolidze | 22 of 39 | 56% | 10 of 25 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 20 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 21 of 38 | 55% | 20 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 14 |
Angelo picks Roman Dolidze, calling him a world champion grappler with real power. He notes Dolidze's impressive recent win over Phil Hawes, where he showed both submission and KO ability. He thinks Hermansson is a good grappler but not on Dolidze's level, and lacks power in his striking. He expects Dolidze to be the favorite by fight night and has a moneyline bet on him.
Big Brady is confident in Hermansson, citing his underrated striking, improved cardio, and superior grappling. He notes Dolidze's poor takedown defense (33%) and short-notice fight, expecting Hermansson to win exchanges on the feet, mix in takedowns, and finish a tired Dolidze in the second round by submission. He mentions Hermansson's dominant win over Chris Curtis as evidence.
Cody agrees, highlighting Hermansson's high output and Dolidze's low volume. He thinks Hermansson can win by decision or even submission, and prefers Hermansson by decision. He notes Dolidze's power but doubts he can land cleanly.
Daniel Levi leans Hermansson as a pure pick, citing his better competition, improved striking, and ground-and-pound. However, he notes Dolidze's danger everywhere and calls it a dog-or-pass situation at the current line. He might bet Dolidze if the line widens to +200 or more.
The host picks Hermansson but is not confident due to Dolidze's tendency to pull off upsets. He thinks Hermansson will dictate the fight with clinching and striking from the outside, similar to his win over Chris Curtis. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet, expecting a slow-paced fight. He warns that Dolidze is a wild man who could finish if he smells blood.
Paul thinks Hermansson has Dolidze covered everywhere. He notes Dolidze's low volume and Hermansson's output advantage. He expects Hermansson to keep the fight standing and use his reach and cardio to win a decision or possibly get a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Hermansson, citing his superior experience and grappling. He thinks Dolidze's recent wins are over lesser competition and that Hermansson's leg kicks and pressure will be key. He predicts Hermansson will take over in the later rounds and win a decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 100 of 251 | 39% | 100 of 251 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 43 of 125 | 34% | 43 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 21 of 65 | 32% | 21 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 7 of 28 | 25% | 7 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 45 of 108 | 41% | 45 of 108 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 34 of 78 | 43% | 34 of 78 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 20 of 57 | 35% | 20 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 100 of 251 | 39% | 48 of 176 | 25 of 45 | 27 of 30 | 99 of 246 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 43 of 125 | 34% | 18 of 89 | 25 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 41 of 123 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 21 of 65 | 32% | 7 of 42 | 3 of 10 | 11 of 13 | 21 of 63 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 7 of 28 | 25% | 3 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Hermansson | 45 of 108 | 41% | 26 of 80 | 10 of 18 | 9 of 10 | 44 of 105 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 16 of 40 | 40% | 5 of 24 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jack Hermansson | 34 of 78 | 43% | 15 of 54 | 12 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 34 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 20 of 57 | 35% | 10 of 42 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo has a slight lean towards Chris Curtis but expresses buyer's remorse after betting on him. He notes Curtis has good boxing and takedown defense, but gassed in his last fight against Rodolfo Vieira and was outstruck. He points out Jack Hermansson went 0 for 8 on takedowns against Sean Strickland but still won rounds on some scorecards, meaning he can strike. He says the pick might change by fight day.
Big Brady picks Chris Curtis to win by decision. He notes Curtis has shown improved takedown defense (stuffing all 20 of Rodolfo Vieira's attempts). On the feet, Curtis has the striking advantage. If Hermansson can't take him down, Curtis should outpoint him in a competitive decision. He acknowledges Hermansson's ground game is dangerous if he gets takedowns.
Cody is confident in Chris Curtis, citing his excellent cardio, takedown defense, and boxing. He argues that Hermansson's best volume comes in championship rounds, but this is a three-round fight. Cody notes Hermansson has been knocked out by punchers and dropped by Marvin Vettori, while Curtis has power and volume. He also mentions Curtis' training with Sean Strickland and his ability to stuff takedowns. Cody believes Curtis will keep the fight standing and box Hermansson up.
Daniel Levi leans towards Jack Hermansson, citing his top-level experience and dangerous ground game, particularly his guillotine choke. He acknowledges Chris Curtis's improved takedown defense and boxing, but questions whether Curtis can handle the step up in competition. Levi notes that Hermansson has been in there with the best and has a lot of heart, but also wonders if Hermansson still has the hunger after recent setbacks. He thinks Hermansson can find opportunistic takedowns and use his ground and pound to win.
Hermansson is too big and strong for Curtis. He will drag the fight to the ground and control him. Curtis defended 20 takedowns against Adolfo Vieira, but Vieira is a jiu-jitsu player, not a wrestler. Hermansson's wrestling is elite. Curtis will realize he should have stayed at 170.
Paul picks Jack Hermansson, feeling the line is too close and that there may be too much hype on Chris Curtis. He notes Hermansson is a legitimate pounder with great cardio, excellent wrestling, and complete skills. Paul acknowledges Curtis has been a cash printing machine but thinks this step up in competition might be too much. He wants to hear Cody's take before making any action.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to win by decision. He praises Curtis's grappling defense, as seen against Rodolfo Vieira. Hermansson will have success with takedowns early but will slow down. Curtis will land body shots and knees, pulling away in the last two rounds for a 29-28 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 137 of 353 | 38% | 137 of 353 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 153 of 330 | 46% | 161 of 338 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 26 of 47 | 55% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 24 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 32 of 70 | 45% | 32 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 32 of 77 | 41% | 32 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 26 of 75 | 34% | 26 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 27 of 59 | 45% | 27 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 27 of 78 | 34% | 27 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 34 of 67 | 50% | 37 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 26 of 83 | 31% | 26 of 83 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 38 of 76 | 50% | 41 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 137 of 353 | 38% | 22 of 194 | 64 of 105 | 51 of 54 | 134 of 350 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 153 of 330 | 46% | 125 of 286 | 24 of 40 | 4 of 4 | 151 of 328 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 26 of 47 | 55% | 4 of 15 | 11 of 20 | 11 of 12 | 25 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 22 of 51 | 43% | 19 of 46 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 32 of 70 | 45% | 3 of 35 | 15 of 21 | 14 of 14 | 31 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 32 of 77 | 41% | 22 of 65 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 26 of 75 | 34% | 4 of 43 | 9 of 19 | 13 of 13 | 26 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 27 of 59 | 45% | 22 of 49 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Sean Strickland | 27 of 78 | 34% | 6 of 47 | 13 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 26 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 34 of 67 | 50% | 30 of 58 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Sean Strickland | 26 of 83 | 31% | 5 of 54 | 16 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 26 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 38 of 76 | 50% | 32 of 68 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 38 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Top-10 middleweights come to blows for the marquee matchup atop UFC Fight Night 200, with possible championship implications in play. “The Joker” Hermansson (22-6, 9-4 UFC) will try to blunt the momentum of the fast-swinging “Tarzan” Strickland (24-3, 11-3 UFC) in a clear-cut style matchup of a savvy grappler against a solid striker. Referee Herb Dean draws the final assignment of the evening, and he may have his hands full depending on where the fight goes. The gloves are touched, the fighters are ready, and it’s time for some action. The middleweights meet in the middle, and Hermansson lands first with a leg kick. Strickland checks the second one that comes to that target, and he flicks out a few jabs as Hermansson comes towards him. Strickland pops out his jab to split the guard repeatedly, and he blocks one from Hermansson but does not block the sweeping low kick. Strickland keeps his jab flowing, and he gets forced to fight off a takedown effort about a minute into the round. Strickland backs up to the fence, keeping himself upright, while Hermansson goes low for a single. Hermansson hooks the leg between his own, and Strickland defends with a few body shots but gets wrenched down to his hands and knees. “Tarzan” swings right back up to his feet, and Hermansson holds him from behind against the wire. Hermansson bails on the single so that he can knee the body, and he kicks Strickland’s calf on the way out. Strickland returns a jab, and Hermansson pushes one back that is far less snappy. Strickland blocks a body kick and is comfortable with his left jab finding the spot again and again. Strickland checks another leg kick, and Hermansson kicks it from the other side when he does. Strickland’s jab pierces the guard again and again, and he keeps at a safe range to dodge a three-punch salvo that swings his way. While Strickland powers out a jab, he eats a heavy body kick and a slapping inside low kick. Hermansson varies his targets while Strickland is primarily focused on sticking out a jab on the nose. Strickland follows a jab with a right, and Hermansson wears it well and replies with a low kick. The American opens up with another one-two, and it gives Hermansson pause for a moment but “The Joker” bites down on his mouthpiece and throws with a right hand and a leg kick. Strickland’s jab continues to find its home, and he adds in a front kick to the body. “Tarzan” dances out of the way of punches right at the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Hermansson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 2
The Swede comes out of his corner much more aggressively than the previous frame, swinging wildly with looping shots and heavier kicks. Strickland remains composed with his jabs and effective defense, checking the low kicks and blocking the bigger punches aimed at his head. They both trade strikes, and Hermansson rushes in with a combination that gets intercepted by a pair of punches. Hermansson hammers Strickland’s lead leg with another kick, and the calf is starting to change colors. Without setting it up, Hermansson ducks down for a takedown attempt, and Strickland shucks it off and pushes him aside. Strickland marches ahead with jabs and follow-up right hands, and he swats down a punch aimed at his face. Hermansson may be throwing harder, but the accuracy rate of his vicious strikes is low. Hermansson bites down on his mouthpiece to throw hands, and they begin to trade it out right in front of one another. Hermansson slugs Strickland in the face, and Strickland’s pace does not change that significantly, keeping to jabs and occasional twos. Hermansson has another takedown try stuffed with ease, allowing Strickland to get to his preferred range and smack him in the face with a jab and body with a right hand. Hermansson kicks the body, and Strickland does not register the blow as he checks a leg kick. Strickland picks out with punches and a single body kick, and Hermansson blitzes forward with a wide combination that mostly misses the mark. A heavy low kick connects for the Swede, but it is one-and-done as he backs away to reset. Strickland lands cleanly with a power jab, and he winds up with a power punch only for Hermansson to greet him with one of his own. They club one another in the face with big punches, and Strickland scores a few kicks to the body. Strickland sits back, avoids a punch and lets go with a right hand that knocks Hermansson cleanly off his feet. Strickland does not give chase, letting Hermansson up as the round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 3
Strickland’s jab starts off again in the round, as he stabs out his fist while Hermansson keeps a high, tight guard. Hermansson’s low kicks have ranging success, as some land cleanly while others get checked. The hand speed shifts in favor of Strickland, catching Hermansson on the way in when Hermansson loads up on powerful strikes. The kicks are marking Strickland’s legs up as well, but Strickland keeps a stiff upper lip and does not change his approach. Hermansson keeps the leg attack going as he eats punches, giving up jabs to land calf kicks. Hermansson tries to bob and weave, and Strickland’s accurate jab is able to still find the target as Hermansson’s face begins to change color. Hermansson sells out for a heavy body kick, and it pounds into Strickland’s liver. Strickland does not budget, and he proceeds to let loose a high kick that glances off Hermansson’s shoulder. “Tarzan” smoothly dodges punches while feeding Hermansson a steady diet of jabs, and he gets tagged with a looping left hand. Strickland gives it back with a body kick, allowing him to take a moment in case he needs to shake off the cobwebs. Hermansson’s variety is much more noteworthy than Strickland, as Strickland sticks to a few fundamentals while Hermansson is trying everything he can to close the distance and land with power punches. Strickland slips and moves, sticking Hermansson with jabs and occasionally mixing in a front kick. Strickland snipes Hermansson with a right hand, and he slings a high kick that is blocked just in the nick of time. They both trade heavy shots, with Strickland scoring a right hand while Hermansson gets off a head kick, and the third frame wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 4
The jab keeps right on coming from Strickland, but Hermansson is motivated to turn this into a wild brawl. The powerful punches of the Swede hit little but air, as Strickland calmly dodges and counters with jabs up the middle. Hermansson swings wide, using his forward momentum to go after a single-leg takedown, and Strickland keeps smart neck control by pushing Hermansson’s head down to fail on the attempt. The American is able to stop the try and gain some space, where he starts to add right hands in after stinging Hermansson with jabs. One such right hand stuns the Swede momentarily, but Hermansson shakes it off and throws back with bad intentions. Hermansson tries to punch around the jab, getting off a few right hands that loop around Strickland’s outstretched arm. Strickland doubles up on a jab, and Hermansson swings wild and goes wide. Strickland’s defensive nature does not put him into much danger, but it is damaging Hermansson to any noticeable degree. Strickland scores a leg kick, and he backs off as Hermansson goes for broke by ducking down and winging punches. Strickland does not absorb them and stays loose and light, jabbing out while windmilling punches go past him. Hermansson finally lands with a big right hand, but Strickland does not budge. Strickland continues to play the matador to Hermansson’s bull, and he pokes and prods Hermansson from a distance until the bell sounds. Both men appear to be bleeding after exchanges, with Strickland’s nose leaking while Hermansson has a cut under his right eye.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 5
Sensing he is likely down on the scorecards, Hermansson attacks recklessly with whipping punches. Strickland’s composure never changes, with his jab and footwork keeping him safe from the majority of harm. On the other hand, Hermansson throws so hard he nearly topples over, unable to find the range with more than a single strike in a salvo. Hermansson kicks the legs and body, and Strickland does what he does best with straight, sharp jabs right down Broadway. While Strickland gets off a one-two, Hermansson leaps ahead with a superman punch that pops Strickland on the cheek. Hermansson walks Strickland down, putting everything he has into his punches, and Strickland’s guard remains active and effective at staving off the worst that comes at him. Hermansson does not bother reacting to jabs any longer, and he throws hard at his opponent. Strickland gives it right back with a pair of one-twos, but he settles back to his calm, methodical pace while Hermansson shouts kiais after every strike. Strickland smoothly walks through a leg kick to push out a few jabs, and he leans to the side to slap Hermansson in the side of his calf. A whiff from Hermansson allows Strickland to counter heavily, but Hermansson does not falter. Instead, the Swede crashes forward in pursuit of a single-leg takedown, and Strickland’s takedown defense remains immaculate as he pushes Hermansson away. Strickland shrugs off a low kick so that he can belt Hermansson in the face with a right hand, and he jabs out a few more times for good measure. Strickland starts talking trash, telling Hermansson to brawl with him. Hermansson appears confused at this, and his confusion lets Strickland blast him in the face a few times. Hermansson obliges him in one final throwdown, and they let it go right to the final horn. There is no bad blood after the last exchange, as they slap one another on the shoulder and laugh after five hard-fought rounds. After the head-scratching split decision score is read, Strickland thanks the UFC for the opportunity and says he is a “company man” and would be more than willing to fight the person that holds the belt next, if that is who’s next for him. The middleweight championship will be decided next week in Houston at UFC 271, with Sherdog in the building covering the fight card, so we will absolutely be there for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (50-45 Strickland)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (50-45 Strickland)
The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Jack Hermansson via Split Decision (49-46, 47-48, 49-46)
Angelo picks Sean Strickland but is hesitant. He notes Strickland's insane volume and solid takedown defense, but criticizes his lack of hip rotation and footwork. Hermansson is a great grappler who will shoot takedowns relentlessly. Angelo thinks Strickland's volume can win, but Hermansson could frustrate him with takedowns. He calls it a great live betting card.
Cody agrees with Paul that Strickland's volume and cardio should win the fight, but he is hesitant about the decision prop. He notes that Hermansson has good wrestling and BJJ, and if anyone can take Strickland down, it's Hermansson. However, he thinks Strickland's takedown defense has improved and that the fight will likely be decided by volume down the stretch. He picks Strickland but is hesitant on the method.
Daniel Levi picks Sean Strickland, citing his improved power at middleweight and his ability to stuff takedowns and get back up. He notes that Strickland's wrestling is underrated, having taken down Uriah Hall and Brendan Allen. Levi believes Jack Hermansson's herky-jerky striking won't trouble Strickland, and that Hermansson shells up when hit, while Strickland thrives on pressure. He predicts a late finish or unanimous decision for Strickland.
Lock of the Night favors Strickland, citing his high output and volume striking that will drown Hermansson on the feet. He acknowledges the unknown of Strickland's takedown defense at 185 but believes his black belt and training with Kutila will suffice. He expects Strickland to get back to his feet and outpoint Hermansson, similar to the Vettori fight. He likes the over 4.5 rounds and Strickland by decision.
Paul thinks Strickland's volume and cardio will be the difference in a five-round fight. He notes that Strickland lands a high volume of significant strikes and that Hermansson may struggle to keep up. He also mentions that Strickland's wrestling is rarely tested but he trains with great wrestlers, so Hermansson's takedown edge is uncertain. Paul picks Strickland but says the price is about right.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland, citing his experience and underrated grappling. He notes that Khamzat Chimaev flies across the world to train grappling with Strickland, implying high-level skills. He predicts Strickland will piece up Hermansson on the feet, stuff takedowns, and win a decision (50-45 or 50-44). He mentions Hermansson doesn't take damage well, as seen in the Uriah Hall fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 55 of 100 | 55% | 141 of 192 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 7:11 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 0 | 40 of 92 | 43% | 42 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 18 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 0 | 26 of 67 | 38% | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 24 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:51 | |
| 3 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 31 of 45 | 68% | 99 of 115 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:14 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 55 of 100 | 55% | 44 of 82 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 12 | 20 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 44 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 40 of 92 | 43% | 34 of 84 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 77 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 18 of 42 | 42% | 7 of 24 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 12 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 26 of 67 | 38% | 21 of 60 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Hermansson | 6 of 13 | 46% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 10 of 17 | 58% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 11 | |
| 3 | Jack Hermansson | 31 of 45 | 68% | 31 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 39 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The main card commences with a high-stakes middleweight showdown as “The Joker” Hermansson (21-6, 8-4 UFC) will try to take more shine away from “The Golden Boy” Shahbazyan (11-1, 4-1 UFC). Two finishers will collide here, with 27 stoppage wins among their 32 career victories, so referee Herb Dean will need to mind his P’s and Q’s. There is no sign of a glove touch, as the two would rather get right down to business. Hermansson hops around as he takes the center of the cage, where he lets go with several front kicks to the knee. Shahbazyan loads up on a few punches down the middle, and Hermansson swats them away and kicks his lead leg. Shahbazyan sneaks in a right hand, and he follows it with a few more powerful strikes that give Hermansson some pause. “The Joker” sits down on a jab, and he gets countered with a left hand on the way in. Three big punches from Shahbazyan ricochet off Hermansson’s guard, and he splits that guard with an uppercut. Hermansson looses a few head kicks and a leg kick, and a jab that comes his way stings him on the chin. A long shot from Hermansson is unsuccessful, as Shahbazyan hops back and lands a big uppercut as the Swede stands. Hermansson rushes in to throw hands, but Shahbazyan’s sharper jab gives him some pause. A few punches from Shahbazyan have marked up Hermansson’s face, but the Swede gives him a response with a few kicks. Shahbazyan’s hands continue to land, and a single leg kick from Hermansson finds its home. Shahbazyan mixes it up with body shots as he jabs, forcing Hermansson to shoot in on him from a distance. “The Golden Boy” shines as he stuffs it, and he cracks Hermansson with a right hand. Hermansson walks through everything, until he meets a one-two that wobbles his knees. “The Joker” is not laughing as he stalks Shahbazyan down, but Shahbazyan is the one landing practically at will. Shahbazyan circles on the outside and reaches out with a front kick, and he sticks Hermansson with a few jabs. Hermansson fires off a kick on the inside leg, and one on the outside, but Shahbazyan ignores them and drills him in the face with a pair of punches. Hermansson gets busted up with a nasty jab, and Hermansson throws wildly with power strikes but is largely inaccurate. Hermansson attacks, but those strikes do not find their home as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Round 2
Hermansson is ready to throw bombs as he starts the second round, and he clips Shahbazyan with an uppercut as he closes the distance. The Swede gets in close with his strikes, and he attempts a single leg takedown when he has Shahbazyan pushed against the fence. “The Joker” scoops up the legs, and he plants Shahbazyan firmly on his back. Shahbazyan closes the guard, but he is eating some serious ground-and-pound as Hermansson starts to unload on him. As a cut opens on his eyebrow from a strike, Shahbazyan wildly scrambles to burst back to his feet. Hermansson keeps him held tight with the threat of a guillotine choke as he leans against the cage wall, and he tightens it when Shahbazyan tries to step out. One solid elbow from Shahbazyan lands, but Hermansson tackles him down right into a guillotine choke from Shahbazyan. The Swede welcomes the exchange, as he is not concerned about the arm around his neck, and instead puts Shahbazyan down to the ground and hops to mount. Shahbazyan recovers position slightly, and Hermansson sits in a high half guard as he elbows Shahbazyan. A few more elbows for Hermansson land as he puts a knee on the belly to slice to full mount, but Shahbazyan is bucking like a bronco. Hermansson is unable to pass position, but he isolates an arm to hunt for a kimura. When Shahbazyan kicks to get out, Hermansson jumps a bit too high and Shahbazyan slides out the back door. Hermansson falls over, and Shahbazyan climbs on top to land a single elbow. “The Golden Boy” reaches down for a guillotine choke to keep the Swede in a position he would prefer, and bails on it to get into half guard. One big thudding elbow from Shahbazyan lands as Hermansson sits up, and “The Joker” twists and turns but falls short in his escape attempt. Hermansson kicks him off, and misses with a few upkicks. This is the perfect moment for Shahbazyan, who dives down with heavy ground-and-pound to end the round violently.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hermansson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hermansson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hermansson
Round 3
The middleweights meet in the center of the cage, and both land single strikes on the other. Shahbazyan sticks out a few jabs, and Hermansson shrugs them off only to get stung with an uppercut. “The Joker” blocks a front kick up the middle, and Hermansson shoots in for a single. He is able to scoop Shahbazyan off the ground, and a second attempt puts “The Golden Boy” on his back. Hermansson, sitting in half guard, frees his right hand to start raining it down on the jaw of the American. Hermansson clubs him with punches and squeezes down with shoulder pressure to pass to mount. Hermansson elbows him a few times, and lands some thudding right hands that bounce Shahbazyan’s head off the cage floor. The Swede continues to pour it on with punches and elbows, and a big cut has opened up around Shahbazyan’s right eye. Hermansson stays comfortable in half guard, thwarting any of Shahbazyan attempts to get up and making him pay for each one with strikes. The blood continues to flow from the man on bottom, and Hermansson opens up with a barrage of nasty elbows as he looks to force a stoppage. Dean keeps a close eye on the proceedings as Hermansson wails on him, and Hermansson sits up to hammer down with a huge elbow. Hermansson steps over into side control as he lands hammerfists, and he turns it into a north-south before taking the other side. Hermansson steps to mount with seconds to go, and he unloads with a fury of punches until the final bloody round ends. As soon as the bell rings, Hermansson gets up and helps a battered Shahbazyan back up to his feet.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hermansson (29-27 Hermansson)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Hermansson (29-27 Hermansson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Hermansson (29-27 Hermansson)
The Official Result
Jack Hermansson def. Edmen Shahbazyan via Unanimous Decision (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
Big Brady picks Hermansson to survive Shahbazyan's dangerous first round, then take over with takedowns and ground game. He notes Shahbazyan's cardio issues and high finish rate (91%) but believes Hermansson's grappling and experience will lead to a second-round submission. He acknowledges Shahbazyan could knock him out early.
Cody Saftic picks Jack Hermansson, criticizing the matchmaking for Shahbazyan. He notes that Hermansson is a strong wrestler with good cardio, while Shahbazyan has shown poor takedown defense and gassing issues. Saftic believes Hermansson will take the fight to the ground and wear Shahbazyan down, similar to what Derek Brunson did. He sees value at -150 and considers it a strong play.
Daniel Levi picks Edmen Shahbazyan, arguing that Shahbazyan is a young phenom with knockout power and takedown ability, and that his loss to Brunson was due to inexperience. He believes Jack Hermansson is a one-trick pony with poor striking defense and that he took too much damage in his last fight (broken orbital). He predicts Shahbazyan will knock out Hermansson in the first round, calling it a dog or pass situation.
Matt picks Edmen Shahbazyan by knockout, believing Shahbazyan's striking advantage and power will be too much for Hermansson. He notes Hermansson's defensive striking issues, having been hit by Cannonier, Vettori, and others. He thinks Shahbazyan's cardio issues may still exist, but he should finish within two rounds. He compares the matchup to Derek Brunson's win over Shahbazyan, but notes Brunson is more defensively sound than Hermansson. He likes Shahbazyan by KO at +265 and round 1 KO at +325.
Paul Shaughnessy agrees with Hermansson, noting that the line seems too good to be true. He points out that Hermansson has fought top competition and has good cardio, while Shahbazyan was dominated by Brunson. He suggests that if Shahbazyan wins, it would likely be by early knockout, but the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Hermansson. He recommends Hermansson by knockout at +265 as a prop.
The MMA Guru predicts Jack Hermansson will win by first-round submission via arm-in guillotine. He expects Shahbazyan to show improvements on the feet and stuff some takedowns early, but Hermansson will eventually catch him in a scramble as Shahbazyan tries to get back up, latching onto the guillotine for the finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 122 of 346 | 35% | 139 of 365 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Jack Hermansson | 1 | 164 of 334 | 49% | 202 of 376 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 5:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 17 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jack Hermansson | 1 | 23 of 47 | 48% | 58 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:29 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 20 of 40 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:28 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 29 of 72 | 40% | 35 of 78 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 23 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 32 of 106 | 30% | 32 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 52 of 104 | 50% | 52 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 30 of 95 | 31% | 35 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 54 of 109 | 49% | 55 of 111 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 122 of 346 | 35% | 86 of 306 | 18 of 22 | 18 of 18 | 118 of 339 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 164 of 334 | 49% | 143 of 312 | 18 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 156 of 320 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 16 of 38 | 42% | 8 of 28 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 23 of 47 | 48% | 18 of 42 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 15 of 35 | 42% | 7 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 12 of 24 | 50% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 29 of 72 | 40% | 21 of 62 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 23 of 50 | 46% | 20 of 47 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Marvin Vettori | 32 of 106 | 30% | 28 of 102 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 30 of 103 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 52 of 104 | 50% | 46 of 98 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 52 of 103 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Marvin Vettori | 30 of 95 | 31% | 22 of 87 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 30 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Hermansson | 54 of 109 | 49% | 52 of 106 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 54 of 109 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Jack Hermansson as a dog, surprised by the line movement making Vettori the favorite. He believes Hermansson's cardio in the championship rounds is superior, as Vettori has slowed in the third round of three-round fights. He sees Hermansson's takedowns and ground game as key to grinding Vettori down, and notes Hermansson has faced tougher competition recently. He expects Hermansson to win a decision, possibly taking the last two rounds.
Daniel picks Jack Hermansson, arguing that Marvin Vettori's hype is inflated by a close fight with Israel Adesanya, which was not a true split decision. He notes that Hermansson has better volume, proven five-round cardio, and submission threats, as seen against Jacare Souza. He also questions Vettori's power, stating he doesn't have the one-punch knockout ability to stop Hermansson. However, he acknowledges that Hermansson's mental state could be a factor if he doesn't want to be there.
The host picks Jack Hermansson to win by decision, citing his superior wrestling and top pressure, especially in a five-round fight. He notes that Vettori has not faced someone with Hermansson's ground game and that Hermansson's unorthodox style and lanky strength will be key. He is not confident enough to bet Hermansson at current odds but would consider it if the line widens to +150.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Hermansson by submission in the first two rounds, emphasizing that Hermansson's style is completely different from Jacare's—he fights on the outside, chops at the legs, and waits for takedowns. He believes Vettori is taking a jump too soon and that Hermansson's explosive grappling will be too much. He notes Hermansson almost submitted Jacare with an arm-in guillotine on short notice and predicts a similar early submission here.
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