UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Sep 28, 2019 · Welterweight · Completed
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Age 39
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Gilbert Burns
3.15 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.64 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
2.12 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Gunnar Nelson
1.77 SLpM
61.0% Str. Acc.
3.06 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
2.0 TD Avg
52.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Gilbert Burns - Fight History
LOSS vs Mike Malott
KO R3 2:08 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Apr 18, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 40 of 92 43% 42 of 94 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:01
Mike Malott 2 56 of 121 46% 56 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 11 of 38 28% 12 of 39 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Gilbert Burns 0 23 of 37 62% 24 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 22 of 53 41% 22 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Gilbert Burns 0 6 of 17 35% 6 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Mike Malott 2 21 of 34 61% 21 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 40 of 92 43% 16 of 60 10 of 12 14 of 20 39 of 89 1 of 3 0 of 0
Mike Malott 56 of 121 46% 51 of 112 3 of 6 2 of 3 44 of 103 1 of 4 11 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 11 of 38 28% 3 of 26 5 of 7 3 of 5 10 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mike Malott 13 of 34 38% 10 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2 13 of 32 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Gilbert Burns 23 of 37 62% 11 of 23 3 of 3 9 of 11 23 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mike Malott 22 of 53 41% 21 of 48 1 of 4 0 of 1 22 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Gilbert Burns 6 of 17 35% 2 of 11 2 of 2 2 of 4 6 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Malott 21 of 34 61% 20 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 18 1 of 2 11 of 14
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-375); Burns (+275)

Round 1
The year is 2026, and the UFC has elected to put a fighter in Burns (22-9, 15-9 UFC) on a four-fight losing streak in a main event. He will be placed in hostile territory, perhaps set up as a stepping stone. Ready to prove that he still has plenty left in the tank, he comes to blows with proud Canadian Malott (13-2-1, 6-1 UFC). Whether a passing of the torch moment or one that shows levels to the game, referee Herb Dean will be here for them every step of the way. He brings them together to issue final instructions, and they share a fist bump. It’s on with the show.
Burns lashes out with a leg kick, and Malott sees it coming and brings his leg in to partially check it. Burns kicks off, and his foot bounces into the cup. Malott adjusts his groin and tells Dean he is good to continue, so they do not pause. Malott chases Burns to the cage behind a pair of punches, and he leans over to let a massive overhand right from the Brazilian buzz behind his neck. Burns whiffs on two more big hooks, but his digging left to the liver gets in twice. Malott swings back hard enough to make Burns think twice about coming in recklessly, and he goes for a takedown only to get stood up. Malott resets and sticks out four punches. Burns fights off a takedown shot, lets Malott hit the ground and bounce back up, and fires out a kick that pounds into his foe’s pectoral. Malott calmly jabs and rolls with the right hand he knows is coming.
Burns kicks at the front leg and is backed off with a left hand, and he defends the uppercuts and wings a right hand as Malott bends over. Burns ducks down for a takedown shot, and he bails it to loose two haymakers that hit nothing but air. Malott times a straight right hand down Broadway as Burns is aiming a leg kick, giving chase as Burns circles away. Burns shoots again, and the Canadian is a stone wall and does not give an inch. Burns backs off and bounces on his heels, tossing out a left hook that brushes the nose. Both men let fly heavy hooks, and Burns follows his land with a chopping kick. Malott looks for a hefty counter, and Burns evades it but cannot get out of the way of a calf kick. Malott leaps forward to land a body kick on the abdomen, landing to sling two hooks behind it. Burns tries to jump for an attack of his own, but time expires while he is in the air so he just lands normally.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 2
The two men bump fists before getting after it. Burns nails the front leg with a kick so hard, Malott drops to a knee. His calf is glowing red just a few seconds into the second round, and Burns is aware of this and does not go after it recklessly. Instead, Burns sets up the kick with blows to other targets. As he is backed off from a one-two, a thin trickle of blood leaks out of the Brazilian’s nostril, who shoots for a takedown that is stopped in its tracks. Burns rebounds to kick the inner leg of his foe, and he drills a right hand on the side of Malott’s head. Burns kicks low to punch high again, even leaping with a Superman punch. Malott backs him off behind his fists, even as Burns loops a left hand back at him. Burns scores with one more hard calf kick and a left hand after it. Malott splits his guard with an uppercut and appears to shake Burns up, who retreats in a hurry. A shiner and some blood immediately develops under Burns’ left eye, as he backs off to defend himself while Malott goes on the offensive. Malott rips uppercuts and loops his right hand around the guard, staying in range just long enough to land but not leaving himself open for Burns’ big swings.
Burns wears the strikes well but is showing damage all over, and he cannot quite secure the home run blow he is seeking. Malott sneaks in an uppercut, and Burns counters with an overhand right and waves Malott on for more. When Malott does not bite, Burns shoots for a takedown. Malott shucks him to the side and sticks a jab in his face, staying calm and composed. Malott beats Burns to the punch and forces him to spin away with a left hook. Both men lunge at one another with power, but nothing significant lands as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 3
Burns takes directly to the center of the cage to engage, doubling up on a jab to sling his big right hand. Malott shies away from the heavy blow and circles around to give chase to Burns. After almost 30 seconds of staring, Burns swings for the bleachers with his right hand twice. Malott laughs them off and sprawls smoothly to defuse the takedown attempt before anything comes of it. Malott backs Burns to the fence with his long, straight punches, staying at his preferred distance to not get caught with the counter. Burns tries and fails to bash him with his right hand, but he leaves himself wide open for an uppercut and a left hook that puts Burns down hard. Burns climbs back up but is compromised, leading to Malott knocking him down again with a blistering right hand. Burns hits his side and is not about to go anywhere, so Malott hammers the nail with a final onslaught of concussive fists that force Dean to step in. The crowd, understandably, goes wild. Malott has earned the biggest win of his career in his most significant fight to date, and he does it by knockout after going toe-to-toe with a powerful striker. Canada may not have won the night in terms of individual matchups, going 4-5 throughout the billing, but Malott prevailed when it mattered most.
The logjam of the welterweight title picture has yet another contender, and as this sport gives, it also takes. A heartbroken “Durinho” leaves his gloves in the center of the cage to signal his retirement, overcome by emotion but still more than willing to give it up for the man that just put him down. The respectful victor has nothing but positive things to say about his opponent, his team and his fans. He does not have any opponent set as he hopes to work his way up the ladder, instead saying he will do so the “Proper” way. When he competes again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Mike Malott def. Gilbert Burns R3 2:08 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Angelo picks Mike Malott with extreme confidence, calling Gilbert Burns too old, slow, and not durable. He notes Gilbert is on a four-fight losing streak and has not submitted anyone recently. He recommends parlaying Malott heavily, saying the odds are too wide and should be much higher.

Parlay Mike Malott heavily, even if he's minus 11,000.
"Mike Malott's the pick. Parlay the [ __ ] out of him, even if he's minus 11,000. Like, this is unbelievably straightforward."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Big Brady hesitantly picks Mike Malott, despite calling him overrated. He criticizes Malott's takedown defense, questionable cardio, and low volume, but notes his power. Brady also doubts Gilbert Burns' durability and age (40). He predicts Malott wins by second-round knockout but says he will not bet on the fight.

second round knockout; no bet
"I'm taking Mike Malott. I'll say he wins this fight by second round knockout, but this is a fight I will not be betting on."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody picks Gilbert Burns because he sees value in the plus money and questions Mike Malott's cardio in later rounds. He notes that Burns has fought top competition and that Malott has never been past three rounds. He also mentions that the line movement towards Burns supports his pick.

round 4 and round 5 props
"I end up with a Gilbert Burns play. I know it's going to upset some people I know personally. And you know, don't shoot the messenger. It's just uh sometimes it's more economics than you going with your heart."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Daniel believes Mike Malott is catching Gilbert Burns at a great time, as Burns is nearly 40 and on a decline. He thinks Malott's explosiveness and freshness will be key, and that Burns will show signs of aging when hit. He predicts Malott will finish Burns.

"I think Mike Malot's going to come out here in Winnipeg, Canada, and I think he's going to finish Gilbert Dorinho Burns."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 18, 2026 (fight day)
Gilbert Burns

Burns is a value underdog despite being older and on a losing streak. Malott fades in later rounds and has shown weakness on the ground. Burns has excellent grappling and cardio for five rounds. If Burns survives the early rounds, he can take over. The odds are too wide; this fight is closer to 50/50.

fight not to go to decision (odds terrible)
"I think this fight is way closer to 50/50 than the odds suggest."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

James believes the line is too wide and that Gilbert Burns has value as a plus 425 underdog. He thinks Burns can weather the early storm and take over in later rounds due to his experience and cardio. Despite picking Malott as the pure winner, he confidently sides with Burns for the moneyline.

"I'm going to say Gilbert Burns gets the upset here. And that's because I'm a sports better."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)

The host mentions the main event but does not make a pick for either fighter. He only notes that Gilbert Burns has been bet down from a massive underdog to a big underdog.

"Gilbert Burns has been getting bet down from a massive underdog to now just a big underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

The host believes Mike Malott will land a big shot and put Gilbert Burns away, but does not like the chalk on Malott. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as the best way to play the matchup, expecting pocket exchanges and a striking battle. He notes Burns' age and four-fight losing streak, and thinks Malott's power will be the difference.

under 2.5 rounds
"I like Malott here. I don't like the chalk on him. I think he'll end up landing a big shot to put Burns down, but I think the under two and a half would probably be the best way to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul also picks Gilbert Burns, citing the same concerns about Malott's cardio and the value on Burns. He mentions he has a bet on Burns at plus 316 and likes late round props. He believes Burns can win if the fight goes into the later rounds.

round 4 and round 5 props
"Burns is the side for me. Um, I see some other people saying that like, you know, he's going to run, you know, Burns going to get knocked out in the first round. I mean, it's possible. It's MMA. Anything …"
LOSS vs Michael Morales
KO R1 3:39 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Michael Morales 2 33 of 56 58% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Michael Morales 2 33 of 56 58% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 5 of 18 27% 4 of 13 0 of 3 1 of 2 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Morales 33 of 56 58% 31 of 52 0 of 0 2 of 4 25 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 5 of 18 27% 4 of 13 0 of 3 1 of 2 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Morales 33 of 56 58% 31 of 52 0 of 0 2 of 4 25 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 9
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-850), Burns (+575)

Round 1
In keeping with the theme of fights that promise action and intensity, the main event should be just what the doctor ordered. Former title challenger Burns (22-8, 15-8 UFC) may have his best days behind him, but “Durinho” is still as dangerous at it comes at 170 pounds. To keep himself in top contention, he will need to deflate the momentum of Morales (17-0, 5-0 UFC), who would like nothing more than to have a breakout performance at the expense of the vaunted grappler. Referee Herb Dean brings these two to the center of the cage to issue final instructions, and they stoically bump fists to seal the cage and make things official. It’s time for some action. It is Morales who claims the center of the Monster Logo on the floor, while Burns circles around him. Burns circles away from the power side of the Ecuadorian, and he lets loose a low kick that slaps loudly. When Morales retaliates with a calf kick, it is a thudding sound. Burns leaps forward to strike, and Morales dances out of the way and punches him around the back of the ear. Burns launches a kick up high, and Morales parries and lobs a jab back. Burns throws a fastball of a right hand that is well off the mark, but his check left hook does catch the chin. Morales lines up a heavy right hand that back off Burns, and he gets clipped by the older man. Burns marches him down looping hooks, and Morales rolls with the punches and jabs his way forward. Burns counters and takes a few more jabs on the nose, and he absorbs a thumping kick on his calf. Morales connects with a crisp uppercut, shaking up the grappler and forcing him to shoot for a takedown. Morales is dragged to his seat for a moment, and Burns wraps his arms around him as Morales stands. Burns leans in close and tight, but Morales pushes him back and unloads with power punches. Morales knocks Burns back to the wall courtesy of a clubbing right hand, and his onslaught slowly breaks Burns down and puts him on the ground.
Dean calls for Burns to fight back, and Burns answers by ducking under and grabbing his foe's legs awkwardly for some kind of desperation takedown. Morales steps over it, allows Burns to stand and lays into him with a blistering salvo of bombarding fists that puts “Durinho” down for the count again. This time, as Dean observes that Burns’ face is bleeding and he is in a bad way, he waves the fight off.
Burns sits up, but he does not protest, knowing that the day is not his. Morales has just passed the biggest test of his career with flying colors, destroying a durable top talent in the first round and not looking back. When Burns gets back to his feet, he needs a minute to recover, but he embraces the man who ran through him like no one has at 170 pounds. The 25-year-old handles the huge moment with poise, dedicating the victory to his mother and thanking her for her advice while declaring that he is ready for the next challenge, whatever that may be. Morales says he is healthy and ready to go, so with any luck, he will be back in the cage at least one more time this year. When he fights next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Michael Morales def. Gilbert Burns R1 3:39 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, citing that Morales is a better wrestler, striker, bigger, faster, stronger, and younger than Gilbert Burns. He notes that Burns is on the wrong side of 35 and coming off a loss to Sean Brady where his grappling was neutralized. Angelo questions what game plan Burns could have, as Morales is a national wrestling champion and Burns was just knocked out. He is shocked Morales is only -600 and expects the line to close at -1000.

Angelo is shocked Morales is only -600, expects line to close at -1000.
"Mic Morales is the pick. He's a better wrestler, a better striker. He's bigger. He's faster. He's stronger. He's younger."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady picks Michael Morales, citing Burns' age (38), three-fight skid, and declining durability. He notes Morales is a much better striker with volume and power, and expects him to find Burns' chin. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Morales by KO, round 2
"I like Morales. I like him quite a bit. ... I'll take Michael Morales to win this fight. And I think he's going to find the chin of Gilbert Burns. And I think he finds it within the first probably …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michael Morales

The host thinks Morales is a huge favorite but not justified given Burns' strength of schedule; Burns' three-fight losing streak came against top competition. He gives Burns the benefit of the doubt as a championship gatekeeper but worries if Burns can't dictate pace or get takedowns, his cardio fades and Morales can take over and knock him out. He picks Morales to win by knockout, but notes minus 800 is tough to get behind. He also leans under 3.5 rounds.

Morales by KO; under 3.5 rounds; odds comment: minus 800 tough to get behind
"I think the Ecuadorian improves his record to 18 and 0 by knocking out Gilbert Burns."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michael Morales

The Guru picks Michael Morales, calling him a crazy natural athlete who controls distance well and switches stances. He thinks Burns is past his prime and lacks the grit to engage, citing the Sean Brady fight where Burns didn't let his hands go. He believes the five-round fight benefits Morales' picking style and predicts a decision win (49-46). He notes the -850 odds are insane and thinks Morales is not that good, but still picks him.

Morales by decision (49-46); odds comment: -850 is insane
"I'm going to go with Michael Morales here over Gilbert Burns."
CANCEL vs Michael Morales
LOSS vs Sean Brady
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Brady 0 47 of 97 48% 76 of 126 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:43
Gilbert Burns 0 130 of 217 59% 274 of 368 7 of 17 41% 0 0 10:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Brady 0 6 of 14 42% 7 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
Gilbert Burns 0 23 of 42 54% 58 of 79 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:15
2 Sean Brady 0 8 of 20 40% 12 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
Gilbert Burns 0 33 of 54 61% 59 of 81 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:26
3 Sean Brady 0 17 of 27 62% 29 of 39 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:28
Gilbert Burns 0 19 of 38 50% 77 of 97 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:26
4 Sean Brady 0 7 of 16 43% 10 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:50
Gilbert Burns 0 24 of 34 70% 44 of 54 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:48
5 Sean Brady 0 9 of 20 45% 18 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 31 of 49 63% 36 of 57 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Brady 47 of 97 48% 25 of 72 19 of 21 3 of 4 32 of 80 15 of 17 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 130 of 217 59% 97 of 179 12 of 16 21 of 22 118 of 202 11 of 13 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Brady 6 of 14 42% 2 of 9 4 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 9 4 of 5 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 23 of 42 54% 17 of 36 2 of 2 4 of 4 20 of 39 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Sean Brady 8 of 20 40% 5 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 33 of 54 61% 24 of 43 6 of 8 3 of 3 29 of 50 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Sean Brady 17 of 27 62% 9 of 19 7 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 19 8 of 8 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 19 of 38 50% 16 of 32 2 of 4 1 of 2 15 of 32 4 of 6 0 of 0
4 Sean Brady 7 of 16 43% 5 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 24 of 34 70% 17 of 27 1 of 1 6 of 6 24 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Sean Brady 9 of 20 45% 4 of 15 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 31 of 49 63% 23 of 41 1 of 1 7 of 7 30 of 47 0 of 0 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-185), Burns (+154)

Round 1
With the welterweight title picture in flux thanks to a glut of contenders, the winner of this main event might need to get one more victory after tonight to get a crack at gold. Nevertheless, it is a big one at 170 pounds as former title challenger Burns (22-7, 15-7 UFC) looks to show that age is nothing but a number at 38 years young when he throws down with much younger grappler Brady (16-1, 6-1 UFC). This bout could take place anywhere, and it likely will go everywhere before it is all settled. Referee Herb Dean will hand the particulars for the headliner, and he brings the fighters together to respectfully touch gloves. It’s on with the show. Brady strikes first in the form of an inside low kick. Burns jumps forward with a knee that does not come up, and he backs off as Brady slaps him with another leg kick. Brady attacks the same spot with his kick once more, and he punches his way into a combination of fists that makes Burns smile at him. Burns lunges with a left hook, and Brady backs him off with a handful of punches. Brady scoops an uppercut through the guard, and he interrupts an advancing Burns with a straight left. Burns lets loose a few hooks, and Brady is wise to them and counters the Brazilian with a quicker combo. Burns times a punch to shoot in for a double, and he deposits the Philadelphia native to his seat. Brady climbs back to his feet thanks to the wall behind him, and they trade knees in the clinch as Brady walks Burns from one side of the cage to the other. Brady uppercuts on the break, and he races forward landing a series of punches that Burns largely blocks. Brady considers changing levels, but the Brazilian stops it from going anywhere. Brady gets in a short uppercut, and they trade knees on the inside in a clinch. Burns spins him about and looks for a single, allowing Brady to knee him in the face. Brady trips Burns up, and Burns topples to his knee, jumps back up and lashes out with an elbow that is inches away from his intended target. Brady reaches with longer punches than Burns is throwing, and he backs Burns up with a chain of strikes and pushes him to the chain links. Brady lifts Burns up and sets him on the mat, and Burns is quick to wall-walk to get upright. Brady hangs on from the side, tripping Burns up but not grounding him with a mat return effort. Burns spins out with seconds to spare, kneeing Brady once before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 2
Burns absorbs a clean body kick to start the round, and he responds with an overhand right that sends Brady flying into the wall. Burns leaps after him, but is grabbed and spun around in the clinch. Brady drops down for a double, and his first try lifts Burns up but does not put him on his back. Brady knees the Brazilian in the thigh a few times until Burns turns him about, and they break up. Brady gets off a trio of one-twos, and Burns walks through them and pushes out his own jab. Brady lands three punches in rapid succession, and he takes another hard right hand as Burns surges into action. After taking another powerful punch on the chin, Brady gets hold of the clinch. Burns wraps a right hand over the guard on the break, and he winds up with two more power hooks that Brady ducks and tries to counter with wrestling. Burns spins him to the fence, but he lets go so he can punch Brady in the face. Brady hits a takedown, and Burns scrambles, spins him around and dumps Brady to a knee. Burns grabs Brady from behind as Brady leans against the wall, and Brady fights out of the grip and uses a jab. Brady lands a jab and a low kick, and he lands another leg kick on the inside. Brady swarms forward with punches, clubbing Burns on the side of the head around the guard. Brady rifles off three quick punches, and he ducks a right hand to double up on a jab. Burns loads up on his power hook, and Brady is more accurate and far more active. They shadowbox until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 3
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Brady’s jabs are the first blows to lead off the round. Burns responds with a low kick and a body kick, and he dings Brady on the nose with a right hand. Brady chains several punches together in response until Burns ties him up. Burns is spun around and eats several body shots, and he gives one back before Brady goes after a single. Burns pulls his leg out and puts his guard up to defend the attack from Brady. Brady goes for a takedown, and Burns spins him around and throws him to his knees. Burns lets fly a pair of huge hooks, and Brady thanks his lucky stars he did not absorb them flush. Brady splits the guard with an uppercut, and he walks face-first into a right hand that stuns him. Brady still has the wherewithal to power forward into the clinch, and he considers a level change until Burns spins him about and attacks a single. Brady hops back to remain on his feet, and they split apart after some dirty boxing. Brady charges forward to go after a single, and Burns pushes on the back of Brady’s neck to stifle it. Burns gets a bit of space and throws punches, but it is an elbow on the inside when Brady comes towards him that does some damage. Burns lays into Brady’s body with knees, and Brady backs away. Burns slips a jab and counters with a right hand, and he turns to his side when Burns takes him down. Burns tags him with an overhand right on the standup, and Brady explodes through to scoop the Brazilian up with a double and loudly dumps Burns to the floor. Burns pushes off and defends himself until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 4
The two reach the championship rounds, and they share a fist bump to kick off the fourth frame. Brady paws out a few jabs, and he offers out a leg kick that bumps into Burns’ cup. Dean calls time, and Burns walks away to lean on the fence and recover. Burns takes a minute to get his wind back, and the two share another fist bump. Burns whips a kick to the body as Brady comes at him, and this time Burns has kicked Brady in the groin. As Dean calls time again, Brady falls to his knees in pain, and he takes a little bit and winks at the camera. Brady paces back and forth until another minute elapses, and Dean tells them to please keep it clean. On the next restart, Brady kicks the lead leg on the outside and then twice on the inside. Burns kicks the front leg once, and Brady fires right back. Brady releases a solid body kick, and he plants his left hand on Burns’ chin when setting down. Brady drives a few jabs through the guard, and Burns clubs him behind the ear and makes him stumble. Burns ducks a jab to respond with another heavy right hand, and Brady knows it is coming and still has to shake it off. Brady rushes at him with six punches in a row, resulting in a clinch. As Brady keeps Burns against the fence, he holds his fingers in the links, and he is warned for it. Burns gets a little space and knees Brady in the face and releases a right hand on the side of the dome. They break apart to reset, and Brady punches his way into a single that lands and puts Burns on his seat. Burns defends with a guillotine choke and uses it to work his way to his feet, only for Brady to sling him down with a mat return. Burns responds with a leglock, and Brady scrambles enough but gives up his back. Burns rolls through and keeps hold of Brady’s back in a grappling exchange, and they stand up with Burns behind him. Burns lifts Brady up and slams him down, and Brady climbs back up after landing on his face. Burns cannot get the takedown again before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 5
The two touch gloves to start off the last round, and even though Brady might be ahead in terms of raw numbers, it might still be anyone’s fight. Brady adds to his totals when it commences with a stream of punches, and Burns ducks away and has his front leg kicked. Burns wings a right hand over the top, and Brady pecks at him from a safer distance with jabs and leg kicks. Burns winds up with a right hand that gets Brady’s attention, and Brady steels himself to throw hands and rushes into a legal knee where the foot lifts and bounces into the cup. Dean calls time and checks the replay to make sure it struck Brady’s groin, and Brady takes 50 seconds before resuming. They get back to it with a brief firefight, throwing hard at one another. Brady doubles up on leg kicks, and he also sticks out a double jab and a right hand. Burns slams his low kick home, and he leaps at Brady and cracks him in the chin with his knee. A shocked Brady turns him around and goes after the single, but Burns is a stone wall. Burns pushes Brady back and wings a right hand that brushes past the hair. Brady shoots for a high single and lifts Burns up to dump him to the floor. Brady peels precious time off the clock as he maintains ground control, until Burns threatens with an omoplata that he uses to turn himself around and work his way to his feet. Brady trips Burns out and slams him to the floor like a sack of potatoes, landing in half guard for a moment before Burns pushes off his chest. Burns turns to grab hold of a leglock, and Brady smartly turns through it and lowers himself back down to not let Burns get any extension on it. Burns works to his feet only to get muscled down to the mat, and when time expires, Brady collapses to the floor in exhaustion. This brings to a close an intriguing back-and-forth battle that answered a slew of questions for the resurgent Brady, including how he can perform in a five-rounder. While the top of welterweight is a mess, the Brady victory likely puts on the shortlist of top contenders. Brady knows that a title fight may not be the immediate next challenge for him, so he calls for anyone in the top five or the unbeaten Ian Garry—the latter Brady says could work because they share the same management. If that matchup comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady (48-47 Brady)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady (50-45 Brady)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady (50-45 Brady)

The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Angelo picks Sean Brady because he is bigger, has good takedowns and Jiu-Jitsu, and is coming off a dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He questions how Gilbert Burns can win, noting Burns' small size, 50% takedown defense, and 38% takedown accuracy. He believes Brady's new-generation black belt will be too much for Burns, though he acknowledges Burns could control on top if he gets takedowns.

"I think Shawn Brady wins this fight and I'll tell you why"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Big Brady picks Sean Brady to win by decision but admits he doesn't have a ton of confidence. He notes Burns is 38 and talking retirement, while Brady is 31 and improving. Brady thinks Brady's wrestling could win minutes and he might hurt Burns, but acknowledges Burns' phenomenal grappling and underrated striking. He expects a decision.

"I got to go Shawn Brady here I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody argues that Burns is the better striker with proven five-round experience, while Brady has poor cardio and striking volume. He notes Brady gassed against Belal Muhammad and relies solely on takedowns, which Burns' 80% takedown defense can neutralize. Despite concerns about Burns' age and coaching distractions, he sees value at +150 and picks Burns as a dog, but admits it's a rollercoaster and not a high-confidence play.

Gilbert Burns submission prop if juicy could be interesting
"I'll take Gilbert Burns uh but yeah it's it's not going to be high up"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 14, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Michael Morales, noting that Morales is 25, undefeated, and improving each fight. He expects Morales to take over as the fight goes into later rounds due to his youth and cardio advantage. Cody also mentions the reach advantage and judo background of Morales, and suggests live betting or over totals rather than laying -800.

over 2.5 rounds
"I do have Morales, but I can fully admit that minus 800, like there's no value there."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Daniel believes Brady is catching Burns at the perfect time, as Burns is 38 and coming off two losses (to Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena). He notes Brady's improved mindset after losing his undefeated record, and his strong performance against Kelvin Gastelum, where he showed heart and cardio. Daniel thinks Brady's physical strength and short, stocky frame will make him hard to submit, and that Brady can tire Burns out and potentially have success on the feet.

"I think that Brady is catching Burns at the perfect time this weekend... I'm going Shawn Brady here in the main event."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Brady is younger and should dictate the pace with wrestling and clinch work. Burns is 38 and on a two-fight losing streak, often gassing in later rounds. Brady can wear Burns down and finish in the third or fourth round. The only hesitation is that it's Brady's first five-round fight, but he is still favored.

Brady inside the distance (round 3 or 4)
"I like Brady in the spot... I'm going to go Brady here I just think he's at this stage of his career uh much better than Burns at 38."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Paul acknowledges Burns' cardio issues and recent decline, noting he gassed against Jack Della Maddalena and seems to have lost his grappling edge. He sees Brady's path via takedowns and control, especially in a five-round fight where Burns' cardio is a bigger liability. However, he is hesitant because he has never been a Sean Brady fan and dislikes the -175 price. He ultimately picks Brady but with low confidence, calling it a 'gun to my head' pick.

"Shawn Brady is the pick for me I mean I kind of hate it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 14, 2025 (fight day)
Gilbert Burns

Paul picks Gilbert Burns as a dog, taking a small poke on Burns by submission at +1800. He acknowledges Burns is likely washed but sees value in the prop given Burns' submission history and the possibility of catching Morales. Paul admits he doesn't expect to win but likes the long odds.

Gilbert Burns by submission +1800
"I took a little small poke on that. Do I expect it to win? No."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sean Brady

The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady over Gilbert Burns. He cites the age difference (Burns is 38) and notes Brady has improved massively. He mentions Brady's wins over Kelvin Gastelum and Jake Matthews, and that he neutralized Craig Jones in grappling. He criticizes Burns' recent performance against JDM, arguing Burns didn't do enough. He believes Brady's size and strength will allow him to stall on the ground and win a slow-paced decision.

decision prediction
"I'm going with Shawn Brady... I'm going to go Brady with decision maybe... a really boring Main Event win for Shawn Brady"
KO (knee and elbows) R3 3:43 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 27 of 58 46% 31 of 63 7 of 11 63% 0 0 5:07
Gilbert Burns 1 67 of 123 54% 85 of 146 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 18 of 35 51% 20 of 37 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:15
Gilbert Burns 0 18 of 38 47% 23 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 23 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Gilbert Burns 0 21 of 48 43% 27 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:13
Gilbert Burns 1 28 of 37 75% 35 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 27 of 58 46% 16 of 43 8 of 11 3 of 4 23 of 52 3 of 5 1 of 1
Gilbert Burns 67 of 123 54% 54 of 104 9 of 15 4 of 4 47 of 100 4 of 6 16 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 18 of 35 51% 9 of 23 7 of 9 2 of 3 14 of 29 3 of 5 1 of 1
Gilbert Burns 18 of 38 47% 13 of 33 3 of 3 2 of 2 15 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 9 of 20 45% 7 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 21 of 48 43% 15 of 36 5 of 11 1 of 1 21 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 28 of 37 75% 26 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 18 1 of 2 16 of 17
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-162), Burns (+136)

Round 1
The deep card continues with a potential thriller at 170 pounds between a striker and a grappler who loves to bang. Former lightweight and Mundials medalist Burns (22-6, 15-6 UFC) will try to derail the hype train and 16-fight win streak of talented Aussie Maddalena (16-2, 6-0 UFC), and referee Dan Miragliotta is as psyched as the fans are to see it go down. Ahead of their scheduled melee, the two men bump fists. Burns whips a low kick to find his distance, and Maddalena paws out a jab. Burns aims a kick to the body and then lead leg, and Maddalena jabs him back. Chants of “Gilbert” rain down in support of the Brazilian by way of Florida, and he does not go crazy when hearing it and stays composed to land punches and a body kick. Burns shoots for a takedown, and when Maddalena scrambles, he takes the back. Maddalena scrambles and turns, and Burns drags him down from behind to assume partial control of the back again. Maddalena once more explodes to his feet, and he is pushed back to the fence as Burns wants to relocate him to a more horizontal position. Burns aims a knee to the sternum hen the takedown is thwarted, and he drops down low for a single and lets it go to hang on. Maddalena counters with a throw and knees Burns in the face with a strike that was borderline, but it was uncalled as a potential foul, so they continue. Burns appears no worse for wear, but he is less aggressive than before as Maddalena sticks out several jabs and a low kick. Maddalena sneaks in and scores a right hand, and Burns kicks him in the ribs and comes up short with a booming right hand. Burns fires off another big right, and Maddalena sees it coming and boxes him back. Maddalena tags Burns with a left hand, and he leans back to dodge a head kick that flies past his noggin. Maddalena strings three left together to the head and then body, and Burns grits his teeth and swings back with bad intentions. Maddalena times an advancing Burns to nail him with a left hook, and Burns takes it well enough and jabs back. Burns wings a right hand that just misses, and Maddalena skim a right hand off the cheek. Burns again fires off an inaccurate head kick, and he crashes forward to engage and lands a right hand, backs off and kicks the body and lead leg. Maddalena darts in with two swiping lefts, and he defends against a takedown that puts him on his back. Burns sits up and drops down hammerfists, and he concludes the close round with a standing-to-ground right hand.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
Maddalena jabs early to lead off, and he prods out a front kick that Burns parries. Maddalena aims a left to the body as he doubles up on jabs, and he ducks when Burns counters with an overhand right. Burns swings hard, and Maddalena sees it coming and backs him away with a straight right hand. Burns kicks high, and he is the one that bounces back when hitting the guard. Maddalena dings his man with a punch, and Burns shoots for a single and moves Maddalena to the mat. Maddalena gets to a knee, and Burns clings to him from on top. Maddalena shrugs off a potential submission from the Brazilian to stand back upright, and they both land punches at the same time. Maddalena aims a left hand straight down the middle, and Burns throws back with a heavy right that draws some swelling. Maddalena dings “Durinho” with a one-two, and Burns throws back with the same and hops away to avoid an Anderson Silva-esque back elbow. Burns winds up and bounces a right hand on the forehead, and Maddalena crowds him and chains five punches together before pulling back. Maddalena leans back, scores and evades the counters. Maddalena connects with four punches before Burns escapes out the side, and Burns smiles and throws a big right hand. Maddalena slips and digs a right to the body. Burns blasts Maddalena in the face with a huge overhand right, and Maddalena frowns and gets taken down from a blast double. Maddalena turns to his knees, and he considers his own takedown but Burns easily stops it and drags him down with his arm wrapped around the neck. Burns steps into full mount, but Maddalena scrambles perfectly to get out. Burns takes the back as they keep moving, and he get hooks in and secures the body triangle. Burns sneaks an arm around the chin, but there is nothing there as Maddalena sticks his tongue out before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The last round kicks off, and Maddalena is back to his jab. Burns strafes laterally, and stops as Maddalena kicks him in the chest. Maddalena scores a right, and he leaps forward with another as Burns continues to move. Burns kicks him in the head, and Maddalena counters him with several uppercuts that rock the Brazilian. Burns leans over, and after absorbing a few more, he shoots for a single to stop himself from taking damage. Maddalena elbows him once before rolling through to stop a takedown, and the elbow smashes the Brazilian’s nose open and blood leaks down his face. Burns wrenches him down to the floor from the side. Burns presses his full body weight on his opponent, and he disallows Maddalena from standing by isolating the right leg. Maddalena looks at the video to find a better way to get up, and Burns wraps arms around the waist and drags him down. Burns gets a hook in and uses his left arm to set up a rear-naked choke, but his other arm is busy so there is no submission in sight. Burns pushes through to advance position, and they both flip all the way over. Maddalena scurries back to his feet, and Burns follows and charges directly into about the cleanest knee one could ever offer. Burns falls to his back, and Maddalena lays into the damaged Burns with a long barrage of punches and elbows. As Maddalena puts more mustard on the elbows, Miragliotta watches closely and makes the decision to intervene and wave the fight off while Burns is staring blankly into space, detached from his senses. This is a huge comeback for the Aussie, who has now won 17 fights in a row while putting away the ultra-durable “Durinho.”

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Gilbert Burns R3 3:43 via KO (Knee and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume striking and jab. He thinks Burns is past his prime and has been exposed by wrestlers. He believes Della Maddalena will piece Burns up on the feet and defend takedowns. He has a half-unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.

Half unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.
"Jack manalan is going to win this fight he's going to piece him up do whatever he wants to do on the feet and defend the takedowns Jack manalan is the pick and I have a half a unit bet …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Della Maddalena has great striking and power, but has made grappling mistakes in the past. He believes Della Maddalena can keep the fight standing and finish Burns, though Burns could submit him if it goes to the mat. He acknowledges the fight could go either way.

win by second round knockout
"I'm going Jack Dela Melina by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody notes that Della Maddalena has been in close fights and could easily have lost, while Burns is a well-rounded grappler with a clear path to victory via takedowns. He thinks Burns's wrestling and experience will be too much for Della Maddalena.

"if you're looking for underdogs you do a lot worse than Gilbert Burns I he's live at that plus money"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, citing his superior boxing and underrated takedown defense. He notes that Burns has been dropped by jabs from Usman, Chimaev, and Muhammad, and that Jack has a nasty jab. Daniel acknowledges Burns's dangerous jiu-jitsu but believes Jack can avoid submissions by not getting carried away with guillotines like he did against Hiestand. He bet Jack at minus 135 and expects Jack to light Burns up and possibly knock him out.

"I bet him at minus 135 got the best of it well the best of it in terms of like you know he's gonna close What minus 180 to whatever"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Della Maddalena, stating he has never picked against him and doesn't plan to start. He acknowledges this is a big step up from fighting Kevin Holland to Gilbert Burns, and calls it a 'dog or pass' spot. Vreeland notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, as seen against Kamaru Usman and Vicente Luque, and that Burns' path to victory is to grapple immediately. He believes the line should be closer to even money but still picks JDM.

"I haven't ever picked against Jack Della Maddalena and I don't plan on starting."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Jeff Fox picks Jack Della Maddalena as well, echoing that he has never picked against him. He mentions that Burns is always in people's corners coaching, which may detract from his own training. Fox also notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, citing the Kamaru Usman knockout. He believes JDM's youth and momentum are key, and that Burns' best chance is to take the fight to the ground immediately.

"Yeah me too give me Jack as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena is a far superior striker with excellent range management and takedown defense, as shown in his fight against Kevin Holland. Burns relies on takedowns to win, but at 38 years old and with declining athleticism, he may struggle to get the fight to the ground. Della Maddalena should dictate the pace in the striking realm and eventually land a knockout in the second or third round. Burns' BJJ is a threat, but Della Maddalena's improved awareness should keep him safe.

Della Maddalena by KO/TKO in rounds 2-3
"I think that Melina should win this fight I think that this is a matchup where we'll see Burns stying to show the decline in his career and showcasing that he can't compete with the guys that are deserving of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul agrees, pointing out that Della Maddalena has shown holes in his takedown defense and that Burns can exploit that. He also notes that Burns has a strong wrestling game and can win rounds by controlling position on the ground.

"it's Gilbert Burns for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, arguing he clearly beat Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland. He believes JDM's striking defense is excellent and that he will stuff Burns' takedowns and tune him up on the feet with a jab. He notes Burns' tendency to bail on takedowns with guillotine attempts and predicts JDM will TKO Burns late in round one.

TKO late round one
"I'm going to go JDM tkoos burns up against the cage late round one"
LOSS vs Belal Muhammad
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 132 of 283 46% 132 of 283 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 81 of 147 55% 81 of 147 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 15 of 31 48% 15 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Belal Muhammad 0 25 of 59 42% 25 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 14 of 22 63% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Belal Muhammad 0 28 of 54 51% 28 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Belal Muhammad 0 42 of 80 52% 42 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 132 of 283 46% 92 of 241 39 of 41 1 of 1 132 of 283 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 81 of 147 55% 35 of 96 13 of 16 33 of 35 81 of 147 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 19 of 39 48% 9 of 29 9 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 15 of 31 48% 7 of 22 3 of 4 5 of 5 15 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 18 of 51 35% 11 of 44 7 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 15 of 28 53% 6 of 18 0 of 0 9 of 10 15 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 25 of 59 42% 20 of 53 5 of 6 0 of 0 25 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 14 of 22 63% 7 of 14 3 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Belal Muhammad 28 of 54 51% 18 of 44 10 of 10 0 of 0 28 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 16 of 23 69% 6 of 12 4 of 4 6 of 7 16 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Belal Muhammad 42 of 80 52% 34 of 71 8 of 9 0 of 0 42 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 21 of 43 48% 9 of 30 3 of 4 9 of 9 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Five-Round Co-Feature: Gilbert Burns vs. Belal Muhammad
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-125), Muhammad (+105)

Round 1
A rarity in the promotion the last several years, the UFC is offering up an official “title eliminator” status for a fight. This comes at 170 pounds, between two excelling talents who are stringing win streaks together at the right time. While many believe Muhammad (22-3, 1 NC; 13-3, 1 NC UFC) should have gotten a title shot already, he will look to push his unbeaten streak to 10 when he collides with brick-fisted grappler Burns (22-5, 15-5 UFC). The two will have five rounds to work, even with no championship or main event status available. This short-notice tilt will receive oversight from referee Keith Peterson, and there is no nonsense or touching of gloves to start things off. Chants for “Let’s go, Burns” rain down immediately in the building, and Burns is spurred into action with a charging right hand. Muhammad absorbs a low kick and looks to find angles and get to Burns with his footwork. Muhammad ricochets a kick off his opponent’s raised guard, and he sneaks a left hand through it. Burns loads up on his power right hand, and Muhammad darts away and aims out a jab. Another solid right from the Brazilian connects square on the chin, and Muhammad backs off and eats a leg kick to follow. Burns flicks a kick up high off the raised guard, and he sneaks a right hand through. Muhammad retaliates with a shin to the ribs, and Burns intercepts a subsequent kick to tackle his man to the mat. Muhammad climbs right back up and strikes a few more kicks to the liver, and he dodges a swatting left hook. Muhammad stays composed and utilizes his jab effectively, mixing in kicks occasionally to stay busier. Burns comes up short on a winging hook, and he kicks the body. Muhammad counters with a straight left hand that staggers Burns, and Burns grits his teeth and slams his right fist into Muhammad’s jaw twice to make “Remember the Name” remember his power. Burns has a kick caught, and he scrambles out of the way before getting dumped to the floor. Burns goes up high with a kick, and Burns stumbles back right as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 2
The second frame kicks off as the two welterweights meet in the middle, and Burns strikes first with a stomping kick to the kneecap. Muhammad strafes to his right, and Burns follows him with a kick to the inside of the knee. Burns comes up short with a right hook, allowing Muhammad to sink in another liver kick. Burns chambers and fires a low kick and a massive right hand, and Muhammad’s beard absorbs it without much issue. Muhammad whips a high kick up, and he aims one to the body as Burns retaliates low to the inner calf. Burns paws away a one-two, and he gathers his thoughts to blast Muhammad in the face with a power right. Muhammad replies with a blocked head kick, and Burns hops around to shake it out. Muhammad is far less active, as Burns steps in with a right. The jabs from Muhammad are less constant, and Burns stings him with a right hand on the temple. Muhammad flashes his jab a few times, and Burns walks into one and storms forward. Muhammad times a body kick, and Burns gives him one to the calf back. Burns fires off a short right hand when Muhammad bears down on him, and he lets go with an inside low kick. Muhammad rips a kick to the side, and Burns surges into action and has a right hand slide off the shoulder. Burns lets fly a low kick, and he dodges a zipping left hand. Muhammad gives chase, and his fists collide with the guard. The slower round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The round begins with a body kick from the Brazilian, and Muhammad retaliates with a front kick that grazes the cup. There is no pause, as Burns waves it off, and the crowd grows restless from the otherwise lack of action in the first minute. Muhammad gets off a jab or two, and Burns chambers his right hand and blocks a head kick. Burns gets off a single jab of his own, and he steps back from a looping punch. Burns kicks the lead leg a few times, and he stumbles when walking forward. Muhammad fires off a high kick that smacks into a shoulder, and Burns swings and misses wit ha haymaker. The pace is very deliberate and ineffective on both sides, and Muhammad throws two punches at a time if he can. Burns backs off, and Muhammad follows him with a head kick that bounces off the shoulder and a few straight punches. Burns tags him with a big right hand, and Muhammad shakes it off and sneaks a kick under Burns’ elbow. Burns steps in with a knee to the chest, and he gets kicked in the neck for his effort. The Brazilian appears no worse for wear, and he backs away when Muhammad jabs and front kicks at him. Burns throws a high body kick that smacks into the armpit, and Muhammad chains two kicks together with his left leg. Muhammad jabs quickly when Burns races forward, and he stays active with kicks. Muhammad gets into his groove of head kicks and jabs, stifling Burns. “Durinho” swings and misses with his right, and Muhammad makes him pay with a body shot. The tepid round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 4
Between rounds, Burns appears to be struggling with his left arm, and he complains to his corner that he cannot use it. Despite this, the championship rounds are upon them, and Burns’ body language and face show he is not having a good time in the cage. Muhammad compounds this by starting off Round 4 with a body kick and a few punches, and Burns blinks hard and drills Muhammad with a right hand on the jaw. Muhammad shakes it targets the same spot on the ribs with one more kick. Burns shells up as Muhammad kicks his body, and Burns replies with one of his own. Muhammad narrowly blocks a head kick in time, with Burns surprising him with the sudden strike. Muhammad stutter-steps his way into action, with a one-two off the guard as he leans back from a home run punch soaring at him. Burns drops down to snatch up a single, and he nails Muhammad with a blistering right hand that gives Muhammad a little wobble. Burns celebrates this with a body kick, a knee to the body and a leg kick, and he backs Muhammad away with a feint. Burns considers another single, and he abandons it because he cannot use his arm to secure it. Muhammad kicks high to the hurt arm, and Burns grimaces. Seeing this, Muhammad attacks it again with a kick up high. Muhammad shrugs off a leg kick to the inside of his knee, and he fires off two kicks to the shoulder. Burns blocks the strikes that come at him, and he splits a right hand down the pipe that shakes Muhammad up again. Muhammad weathers it and goes to jab, and the round ends with the crowd booing the welterweights.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 5
A dejected Burns is able to come out of his corner to start the last round, and a corner stoppage would not be out of the question given Burns condition. This sport rarely allows for such a courtesy, and the last round begins. Burns blocks an early head kick and loops two right hands over the top. Burns drops down for a takedown, and he abandons it and absorbs a few kicks to the head and body. Muhammad reaches his foe with a lunging right, and he is out of range when Burns attempts his overhand right. Burns is caught with a right hand coming in, and he wobbles back but gathers his balance. Muhammad punishes the ribs with the umpteenth kick to that same target, and Burns toughs it out. They both clash together with their fists, and Muhammad is the one to land better and backs Burns away. Burns secures a leg kick to buckle Muhammad’s knee for a second, but Muhammad speedily recovers and he takes another. Burns leaps in with a few rights, and Muhammad counters and fearlessly walks Burns down. Muhammad leans back from the obligatory right hook and tags him with a few punches, and he sees the telegraphed bomb and dodges it again. Burns knocks Muhammad back with his right, only for Muhammad to step in front of him and connect with a one-two. Burns swings and misses with two missiles that are right hands, with his left completely out of the picture in this fight other than as a blocking limb. They both trade heavy fire, and Muhammad darts out of harm’s way when Burns looks to reach him. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Muhammad kicks high and then aims one to the body, and the disappointing 25-minute affair comes to a merciful conclusion. The two immediately hug it out after the bell rings, and Muhammad should finally have done enough to earn a crack at the 170-pound throne.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (50-45 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)

The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling pressure and improved striking. He notes that Gilbert Burns is coming off a quick turnaround (fought three weeks ago) and that fighters in that situation often lose. Angelo believes Belal's wrestling pace will overwhelm Burns, and he questions Burns' submission threat off his back. He has a quarter unit on Belal at +105, noting the line has tightened from Burns being a big favorite.

quarter unit at +105
"I got a quarter of a unit on below at Plus 105."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady picks Muhammad in this five-round fight. He believes Burns is the better striker early with more power, but Muhammad's cardio, pressure, and volume will wear Burns down in the later rounds. He notes Burns has questionable cardio and chin, and Muhammad has excellent takedown defense and get-up game. He predicts Muhammad will weather the early storm and finish Burns late, possibly by fourth-round TKO.

Fourth round TKO prediction
"I'm going to take Muhammad here to win this fight I like him to weather the early storm put the pressure on put the pace on and break Burns as this fight goes on"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Cody emphasizes that the five-round format heavily favors Belal Muhammad's proven cardio and durability over Gilbert Burns, who has questionable gas tank. He notes Belal's high ring IQ, ability to adjust game plans (lateral movement vs Luque, forward pressure vs Brady), and that Burns' recent wins are over older or less dangerous opponents. He expects Belal to survive early rounds and take over late, making the underdog line attractive.

Live betting after first round for better price
"pre-fight flop I will take the underdog Muhammad plus 110"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Connor also picks Muhammad, agreeing that Burns is uncomfortable under pressure and that Muhammad's jab will be key. He notes that Muhammad is a smart fighter who sticks to his game plan and that Burns' wrestling may not be a decisive factor. Connor expresses concern about Muhammad's short notice but trusts his conditioning.

"I'm going to pick Balal too, but that is my concern."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The host picks Belal Muhammad, citing his pace, pressure, and cardio as key advantages over Gilbert Burns. He believes Muhammad's grappling-heavy style, similar to Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, will wear down Burns, who has cardio issues. He expects Muhammad to finish Burns in the fourth or fifth round, and notes that the plus 120 odds look easy.

Belal Muhammad by TKO in round 4 or 5, plus 120 odds
"I think that this is a spot that he can go out there put Gilbert Burns through the grinder and finish him probably in the 4th of fifth round of this matchup give me give me below Muhammad a short …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Paul initially leaned toward Gilbert Burns but changed his mind after realizing the fight is five rounds, which makes the line more reasonable. He notes Burns' quick turnaround and Belal's experience fighting after Ramadan without issue. He says he's 'leaning ever so slightly towards Belal' because of the five rounds, but thinks the market has it right and it's a close fight.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Burns moved from 1.5 to 1; thinks one takedown is accurate
"I'm leaning ever so slightly towards below because of the fact that it's five rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

The Guru confidently picks Burns, citing his peak physical condition from fighting frequently and his power advantage on the feet. He believes Burns will set traps and land big shots as Belal comes forward, and that Belal's takedowns won't worry Burns due to his jiu-jitsu. He also questions Belal's mindset and weight cut, noting Belal's complaints and inconsistent weight claims. He predicts a TKO via right hand against the cage.

TKO prediction
"I'm going with Gilbert Burns I like the fact that he called for five rounds knowing that Bilal Muhammad might not be in a peak shape I'm gonna go Gilbert Burns getting this one done by TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Zane picks Muhammad, emphasizing that Burns tends to destruct under pressure and that Muhammad's jab-centric striking is a great weapon against Burns' catch-and-counter style. He notes that Muhammad is adaptable and well-prepared, and that Burns' recent performance against Masvidal was uninspiring. Zane also mentions that the five-round fight favors Muhammad's cardio and pressure.

"I got to pick Balal Muhammad in that kind of fight."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 42 of 99 42% 72 of 135 4 of 6 66% 0 0 5:41
Jorge Masvidal 0 39 of 91 42% 77 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 13 of 39 33% 15 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Jorge Masvidal 0 15 of 38 39% 20 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Gilbert Burns 0 7 of 16 43% 27 of 40 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:05
Jorge Masvidal 0 5 of 11 45% 32 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Gilbert Burns 0 22 of 44 50% 30 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:30
Jorge Masvidal 0 19 of 42 45% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 42 of 99 42% 34 of 84 3 of 7 5 of 8 37 of 90 0 of 0 5 of 9
Jorge Masvidal 39 of 91 42% 14 of 61 8 of 11 17 of 19 38 of 90 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 13 of 39 33% 7 of 29 3 of 6 3 of 4 12 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 15 of 38 39% 5 of 26 2 of 2 8 of 10 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gilbert Burns 7 of 16 43% 6 of 12 0 of 1 1 of 3 5 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 5 of 11 45% 1 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Gilbert Burns 22 of 44 50% 21 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 1 20 of 41 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 19 of 42 45% 8 of 29 3 of 5 8 of 8 19 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-490), Masvidal (+390)

Round 1
The loudest pop of the evening almost certainly goes to Miami’s own Masvidal (35-16, 12-9 UFC), who walks out to this tough stylistic matchup as a heavy underdog on a losing streak. In his face for a maximum of three rounds will be “Durinho” Burns (21-5, 14-5 UFC), who can present problems on the feet and ground, depending on where his mood takes him. Action is virtually a guarantee here, and the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard looks on. With ample respect, the gloves get touched when Goddard brings them together. There is no flying knee try from Masvidal, for those expecting him to come out firing this. Burns walks forward, but Masvidal takes the center of the cage. The two are hesitant to engage with little more than jabs, other than a single low kick from “Gamebred.” Burns throws one back, and they proceed to go tit-for-tat with these slapping strikes. Chants for “305” and “Let’s Go Jorge” rain down, but it does not spur the local fighter into action. Burns whiffs on a left hook, and neither man seems willing to commit to anything of note. Burns reaches out with a few jabs that miss the mark, but a right hand splits the guard and draws a smile from his opponent. Burns darts in with a straight right, and Masvidal slides out of the way and resets. Masvidal blitzes suddenly with three punches and a leg kick, and the crowd goes wild. Masvidal sinks another kick home on the lead calf, and Burns replies with a leg kick and one to the ribs. Masvidal sticks his tongue out, and Burns attacks with a pair of looping, blocked punches. Burns ducks a big punch and nearly takes the fight down, but Masvidal moves out of the way before he gets tripped. The Brazilian lands a single kick to the body, and he switches stances a few times and catches Masvidal with a right hand. Masvidal connects with another leg kick, and Burns chops down low. Masvidal surges into action, throwing a few heavy punches, but a left hand from Burns keeps him honest. Burns loops a right hand around the guard, and Masvidal shakes it off and pins three punches on the guard. Burns cracks him with a serious right hand, and Masvidal waves him on. Burns slings a right hand, changes levels and throws Masvidal to the ground. Burns postures up, flailing punches, and Masvidal goes crazy throwing offense from his back. The round ends, and the two high five.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
The second round opens up with Burns pushing forth a jab, and he slams his fist onto Masvidal’s jaw and knocks him off his feet. Masvidal jumps back to his feet, but Burns meets him with a double. When Masvidal defends with a guillotine, Burns simply lifts him off the ground like a sack of flour and slams him down to the ground. Burns lands in the guard and Masvidal is quickly warned for punches to the back of the head. Burns maintains heavy top pressure while getting off occasional strikes, but Goddard asks him to do more. Masvidal hangs on in hopes of forcing a standup, and Burns is unable to get off much offense from above. Goddard again tells Burns to work, and Masvidal clings to him to shut it down. Burns slashes down with a single elbow, and Masvidal works his way to put his head and neck against the wire. Burns partially stands up to step over, but Masvidal wall-walks at the same time and somersaults to break the grip. This backfires, as Burns takes his back and hangs onto it while Masvidal stands. Burns slams “Gamebred” on his face in a subsequent takedown, and Masvidal leans up against the wall and even threatens the BJJ world champion with a guillotine choke. Burns completely ignores it, and Masvidal manages to fight back to his feet. Burns presses him tightly in the clinch, and Masvidal spins him around and knees him a few times. Burns turns him back around, and he gets pushed back to split them up with 30 seconds to spare. Masvidal wings an inaccurate right hand, and he plants his shin on the body. Burns runs at him with his hands flying, and they both clash together with right hands. Burns acknowledges it, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The fighters touch ‘em up to open the final frame, and Burns puts his foot upside the head. Masvidal shrugs it off and chops the calf with a single strike. The crowd puts its support behind the local competitor, and Burns punches him square in the face with his right hand. Masvidal blocks a lunging right hook but eats a pair of jabs. Masvidal gets off a strong low kick, and he comes up short on an uppercut. The leg kicks continue working for “Gamebred,” whose offense is otherwise generally muted. Masvidal suddenly spins with a back kick to the body, and Burns steps through it and snipes Masvidal with a left. Burns lands another, and Masvidal smiles at him. Burns lands a one-two on the chin, and Masvidal wobbles back to the fence and waves Burns on. A home run of a right hand skims off the chin, and Masvidal is still rocked but survives it. Masvidal gets some space and appears to have the cobwebs shaken out, as he puts a one-two on the Brazilian’s jaw. Burns lets his hands fly and smashes Masvidal in the face, and Masvidal again stumbles back to the fence. Burns jabs instead of falling into a Masvidal trap, so Masvidal kicks his foe’s lead leg and flashes out his own jab. Burns lands a left and a right, and “Gamebred” toughs it out and gets Burns’ respect with a few punches. The Brazilian changes levels in pursuit of a takedown, and Masvidal stands him up. Burns continues to go after it, and he trips Masvidal and throws him on his back, where he lands in side control. Burns slams Masvidal in the face with elbows, and he moves to half guard to keep Masvidal pinned to the mat. Burns considers an arm-triangle choke, but Masvidal uses two-on-one wrist control to stifle it. Masvidal is warned for grabbing inside the gloves, and Burns slides around to nearly take the back. Masvidal works to his knees, and the fight comes to a close. After the scores are read, Burns calls for a title shot. Masvidal, however, takes his gloves off and calls it a career after "20 long years."

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Jorge Masvidal via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Angelo picks Gilbert Burns but is not betting due to the steep -450 odds. He notes that Masvidal has solid takedown defense and good hands, and if the fight stays on the feet, Masvidal is the better striker. He thinks Burns will grind out a win but is wary of Masvidal's ability to defend takedowns and potentially win a decision in his hometown.

"I do think Gilbert Burns wins this fight but I am not going anywhere near these minus 450 odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Big Brady picks Gilbert Burns to win by decision, citing his wrestling advantage and Masvidal's age. He notes Burns should take the fight to the mat and control Masvidal, who has good takedown defense but can be controlled once taken down. He does not see a finish and warns against betting at -500 odds.

not laying minus 500
"give me Burns I'll say Burns by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody picks Burns but is hesitant at -450. He notes Masvidal is very difficult to take down, as shown in five-round fights against Usman and Covington. Cody thinks Burns wins 8 out of 10 times but sees value on Masvidal due to the Florida crowd and Masvidal's power. He mentions PrizePicks under 2.5 takedowns for Burns as a potential play because Burns might not wrestle or could get a quick submission.

Burns under 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I'm going to be picking Burns but... the fact that we're in Florida... it's not making me feel like oh lock burns up in parlays"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Connor picks Burns because Masvidal has regressed significantly: his boxing has become sloppy, he relies on trick shots that he's no longer fast enough to land, and he lets opponents dictate the fight. Burns is aggressive, assertive, and will take full advantage of Masvidal's tendency to back up and corner himself. Connor notes that Masvidal used to be a great scrambler and wrestler, but now he seems to hate grappling and makes poor decisions. He also mentions Masvidal's ego and age have eroded his game.

Burns opened around -420, now -455; Masvidal opened around +350, now +370. Connor says the line is wide and getting wider, and it doesn't feel inaccurate.
"Gilbert Burns is going to run him over."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Jacob is extremely confident in Gilbert Burns, calling Masvidal overrated and saying he is here to collect a check. He believes Burns will take Masvidal down, slam him, and submit him. He notes that Masvidal has only defended wrestlers like Usman and Colby, but Burns is a powerful grappler who will use strength and technique to finish the fight.

submission
"Gilbert's Gonna Get Us done first take down submission easy peasy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jorge Masvidal

Masvidal is on a three-fight losing streak but those were against the division's elite. He has slick boxing, deceptive power, and excellent takedown defense and get-up game. Burns is a BJJ specialist but his striking is decent, and he doesn't have the cardio or wrestling to replicate what Colby did to Masvidal. I think Masvidal's striking advantage and the Miami crowd will carry him to a knockout win.

"the line in this fight makes no sense to me at all massive at all even though he's on three in his last three fights should not be a plus 380 Underdog to Gilbert Burns"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul acknowledges the best version of Masvidal could beat Burns, but believes Masvidal at 38 has lost a step and lacks the fire. He notes Masvidal's takedown defense is good but Burns' pressure and wrestling should wear him down. Paul expects Burns to take Masvidal down, control rounds, and win a decision or late finish. He cautions that Masvidal could keep it close in Florida but ultimately picks Burns.

Burns under 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks considered
"I do gotta end up taking Gilbert Burns"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Gilbert Burns

The MMA Guru picks Gilbert Burns to drop Masvidal in round one and submit him with an arm triangle. He expects Masvidal to lead with kicks, and Burns will time a right hand over the top, dropping Masvidal. Burns will then take mount, land big shots, and as Masvidal scrambles, he will give up an arm triangle and tap with 30 seconds left in the round.

first round submission, arm triangle
"I think Gilbert Burns is gonna drop masvidal in round one and sub him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Zane picks Burns because Masvidal's game has fallen off: he's slower, gasses now, and his boxing is worse. He used to be a well-rounded technician, but now he looks for highlight-reel shots and doesn't have the speed for them. Burns will out-grapple him and doesn't even need to do that the whole time; he can just pressure Masvidal, who backs up too easily and corners himself. Zane notes that Masvidal's ego and age have combined to make him a shadow of his former self.

Burns opened around -420, now -455; Masvidal opened around +350, now +370. Zane says the line is reasonable and not surprising.
"I would have picked an earlier version of Jorge against an earlier version of Gilbert. But now it just seems like there's a gulf."
WIN vs Neil Magny
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 4:15 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 6 83% 10 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:35
Neil Magny 0 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 6 83% 10 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:35
Neil Magny 0 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 5 of 6 83% 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Neil Magny 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 5 of 6 83% 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Neil Magny 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-410), Magny (+330)

Round 1
Welterweights with a lot at stake invade the Octagon next, as former title challenger Burns (20-5, 13-5 UFC) looks to get back on the right track against the UFC welterweight division’s all-time wins leader Magny (27-9, 20-8 UFC). At 36 and 35 years of age, respectively, the time is now for these two to go on a run, lest they get left behind for the young guns nipping at their heels. This 170-pound “featured fight of the night” scrap will have referee Fernando Portella keeping tabs, and it begins with hands clapping together. The two hesitantly approach one another, and Magny uses his range to disallow Burns from coming at him. This strategy does not stay intact for long, as Burns closes in to whip a high body kick under the elbow. Burns chambers his big right hand without throwing it for a prolonged stretch, and he rushes forward and only lands a jab. The right hand from Burns is chained right into a level change, and he scoops Magny off the ground and slams him to the mat without batting an eye. The Brazilian shifts straight into half guard when landing, although the veteran Magny drags him back to his guard. Burns aims to jump into the mount, and opts to move to side control when Magny’s long legs give him issues. Magny leans to his side, and Burns hooks his left arm behind the neck and right arm beneath Magny’s left knee to pass. Burns passes to the other side, and he presses his shoulder down in a potential arm-triangle setup. "Durinho" slices over to full mount, as the crowd cheers in unison for his success. Burns again flirts with an arm-triangle, but bails on it to lock Magny’s right arm down in a potential keylock. Burns suddenly presses his full body weight down and steps to the side brilliantly for an arm-triangle choke, and he locks it up in an instant even with his side against the cage wall. Magny knows there is nothing more he can do, and he reaches his arm straight out and then taps out. Burns made that look easy, putting away a respected veteran while barely breaking a sweat. In the process, he also pulled off his first submission since returning to welterweight in 2019.

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Neil Magny R1 4:15 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Big Brady is confident Burns will submit Magny in the first round. He notes Burns is a wizard on the mat with elite BJJ, while Magny has poor takedown defense (57%) and has been submitted five times. Burns will take the fight down easily and finish. On the feet, Magny has a reach advantage but Burns has more power. He expects a first-round submission.

first round submission
"I think Burns submits this guy and I think he does it probably early as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody picks Gilbert Burns confidently, believing Burns should win two rounds and coast in the third. He notes Burns' pressure, wrestling, and Jiu-Jitsu are key, and that Magny's long limbs are a disadvantage on the ground. He acknowledges Burns' cardio and chin concerns but thinks the Brazilian crowd and Burns' recent form (Chimaev fight) will carry him. He says Burns' path to victory is takedowns and control.

parlayed Burns with Johnny Walker; mentions Burns' takedowns and control
"I jumped in on Gilbert Burns early I think worst case scenario turns into like the Wonder Boy fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Connor agrees with Zane, stating that Burns is a nightmare matchup for Magny. He notes that Magny has improved his jab and pressure, but Burns is a souped-up version of the fighters who have troubled Magny before. Connor believes Burns can take Magny down or beat him in the clinch, and that Magny's only path is a lucky shot.

Connor mentions the odds but does not place a bet.
"It's just a miserable net matchup for Magni. Really like RDA, just that combination of skills that whenever Magni meets it just ruins his whole day."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul picks Gilbert Burns but with some hesitation. He notes Burns' cardio and durability issues, but thinks Burns' pressure, wrestling, and Jiu-Jitsu will be too much for Magny. He mentions Magny's good cardio and ring IQ but says Burns is the better fighter. He warns that Burns could gas out or get caught, but overall expects Burns to win via takedowns and top control.

mentions Burns' cardio concerns; says Magny's long limbs are a disadvantage on the ground
"I like Gilbert Burns as well I think he's the better fighter and should win but there are versions of Gilbert Burns that exist that can make this very difficult on himself"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

The Guru picks Burns but calls it his least confident pick on the card. He notes Magny's reach advantage and straight punches could trouble Burns, who struggles with range. However, Burns has offensive takedowns and Magny makes mistakes defending them. The Guru predicts Burns will find a submission (rear-naked choke or arm triangle) or TKO via ground and pound. He worries about the style matchup but trusts Burns' grappling.

submission
"I'm going Gilbert Burns but I don't know ... this is my least confident pick funnily enough"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Zane picks Burns, calling it a 'miserable matchup' for Magny. He notes that Magny historically struggles against powerful strikers, technical top-position grapplers, and freak athletes—Burns is all three. Zane highlights Burns' toughness, power, and well-rounded game, and believes Magny's only chance is to be super aggressive and hope for a miracle.

Magny opened at +245, now +350; Burns opened at -285, now -459. Zane does not place a bet.
"This is a miserable fight for Neil Magny and I would never pick him in it."
Gunnar Nelson - Fight History
CANCEL vs Neil Magny
LOSS vs Kevin Holland
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gunnar Nelson 0 15 of 24 62% 30 of 44 3 of 10 30% 1 0 9:29
Kevin Holland 1 55 of 89 61% 138 of 178 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gunnar Nelson 0 5 of 9 55% 13 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:55
Kevin Holland 1 19 of 37 51% 31 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Gunnar Nelson 0 3 of 6 50% 7 of 11 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:22
Kevin Holland 0 17 of 23 73% 73 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
3 Gunnar Nelson 0 7 of 9 77% 10 of 13 1 of 4 25% 1 0 3:12
Kevin Holland 0 19 of 29 65% 34 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gunnar Nelson 15 of 24 62% 10 of 19 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 7 7 of 8 6 of 9
Kevin Holland 55 of 89 61% 30 of 57 15 of 20 10 of 12 15 of 34 22 of 27 18 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gunnar Nelson 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 4
Kevin Holland 19 of 37 51% 10 of 24 3 of 5 6 of 8 9 of 20 4 of 4 6 of 13
2 Gunnar Nelson 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 1
Kevin Holland 17 of 23 73% 9 of 15 6 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 7 6 of 7 8 of 9
3 Gunnar Nelson 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 5 3 of 4
Kevin Holland 19 of 29 65% 11 of 18 6 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 7 12 of 16 4 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Gunnar Nelson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nelson (-130), Holland (+110)

Round 1
Dan Movahedi will referee Nelson’s first fight since March 2023. Holland opens with a pair of inside leg kicks. Nelson is operating from his usual karate stance. Another leg kick for Holland, who has a significant reach edge. Nelson tries to charge in, but he’s rebuffed by Holland. Holland with a long jab and right hand. Nelson shoots and gets Holland down. Holland is active from his back, threatening with submissions, but Nelson is a savvy grappler. Nelson stands and picks Holland up with one arm and both fighters share a laugh. Nelson goes back to work from above, but he’ll have to navigate his foe’s long limbs. Holland is landing hammerfists from his bck on occasion. Nelson with a solid right from top position. Holland lands an elbow from his back. Nelson is struggling to find openings for offense from above. The Iceland native drops a short elbow. Nelson stands and has to worry about Holland’s upkicks before moving back on top. They stand late in the round, and Holland drops Nelson with a one-two. He hovers over Nelson and drops heavy standing to ground shots. Nelson is saved by the horn, but Holland might've landed one after the buzzer.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 2
Holland is aggressive, and he punches his way into the clinch behind an uppercut. Holland with a knee and a foot stomp. They separate and size each other up from range. Holland with a solid inside low kick. Holland is measuring the right hand that dropped Nelson in Round 1. Nelson is working hard for a takedown, but Holland is able to stay upright. Nelson adjusts against the fence, but Holland maintains his footing. Nelson is clinging to the leg, and Holland stays busy with short strikes. Nelson pulls Holland off the fence and drags him to the canvas with about 2:00 to go. Nelson is in top position, but Holland is active again, both with his guard and strikes from his back. Nelson is simply holding position as Holland continues to work from his back. Holland with an upkick as Nelson stands. Nelson works his way back into full guard as the round draws to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 3
Holland chips away at the legs of Nelson before they collide in the clinch. Holland lands a knee in close. Nelson counters with uppercuts, but another Holland knee gets through. Nelson decides against continuing to trade offense in the clinch, and he changes levels for a takedown. Nelson moves into full mount with ease. Holland kicks off the fence to remove Nelson from mount, but the grappling ace is still in top position. Holland is warned to remove his toes from the cage. Nelson absorbs a series of heel strikes to to the head. He responds by dropping a right from above. Nelson transitions to an arm triangle during a scramble. He’s close to the cage, but it looks pretty deep. Holland looks comfortable for now, and he’s able to eventually escape to his feet. Holland pushes Nelson into the fence. Nelson is looking at the clock now. Holland with a knee to the midsection. Back at range, Holland connects with a front kick. Nelson closes the distance but eats another knee for his efforts. Holland denies a takedown and the welterweights battle in the clinch. Holland breaks free and falls to his back after missing on a knee before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Gunnar Nelson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland despite his poor takedown defense, arguing that skill-wise Holland is the better fighter. He notes that Holland is likely fighting for his job at welterweight and will be motivated. He criticizes Gunnar Nelson's inactivity (2 years), poor striking differential, and lack of wins over active UFC fighters. He has a small bet on Holland.

Small bet on Kevin Holland
"I am going to pick Kevin and I know his takedown defense is worse than my six-year-old daughter's... but damn it at times he's a good fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Brady is very hesitant but picks Holland, calling it 'One Last Ride'. He notes Nelson is 36, inactive (2 fights in 5 years), has no striking, and is coming off a 2-year layoff. Holland has an astronomical striking advantage and is fighting at welterweight where he belongs. Brady predicts a second-round knockout.

Holland by KO round 2
"One Last Ride Kevin Holland don't let me down knock this guy out give me Kevin Holland to win this fight and win this fight by second round knock out"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nelson. He highlights Holland's inability to wrestle seriously and his tendency to fall apart when pressured. Nelson's striking, though limited, will force Holland to close distance, leading to takedowns and submissions. Connor is confident Nelson will look the same despite the layoff.

Nelson opened at -133, currently -120; Holland opened at +102, currently +107.
"Yeah, I mean I just feel like because of the who gunner nelson always has been as a fighter ... he'll probably look pretty much exactly the same."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

The host notes Nelson doesn't fight often but still showcases superb jiu-jitsu. He expects Nelson to get a body lock, drag the fight to the ground, find the back, and secure a submission win over Holland.

submission
"I think he'll be able to showcase that once again here, eventually getting the body lock, dragging this fight to the ground, and eventually finding the back and wrapping up a submission win over Kevin Holland."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

The Guru confidently picks Gunnar Nelson, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and takedown entries. He expects Nelson to get a takedown, take Holland's back, and secure a rear-naked choke in the first round. He notes that Holland is susceptible to grapplers and has not finished anyone early in a long time. He acknowledges a small chance Holland lands a 45-70 kick but dismisses it.

submission round 1 (rear-naked choke)
"I'm gonna have to imagine Gana Nelson gets a takedown and gets a re naked choke over Kevin Holland"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Zane confidently picks Nelson, arguing that Holland's poor wrestling and tendency to crash forward will play directly into Nelson's strengths. Nelson's karate-style striking and elite ground game will exploit Holland's lack of takedown defense and submission awareness. He expects Holland to either get taken down and submitted or run into Nelson's clinch.

Nelson opened at -133, currently -120; Holland opened at +102, currently +107.
"If we simply go with the assumption that nelson is going to look more or less the same ... I think kevin holland is going to leap right into his hands."
Submission (armbar) R1 4:51 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gunnar Nelson 0 10 of 11 90% 20 of 21 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:13
Bryan Barberena 0 7 of 12 58% 18 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gunnar Nelson 0 10 of 11 90% 20 of 21 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:13
Bryan Barberena 0 7 of 12 58% 18 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gunnar Nelson 10 of 11 90% 8 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 7
Bryan Barberena 7 of 12 58% 3 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5 6 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gunnar Nelson 10 of 11 90% 8 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 7
Bryan Barberena 7 of 12 58% 3 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5 6 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Angelo picks Nelson but is not betting. He thinks Nelson's ground game is far superior and Barberena is tough but not technical. He notes Nelson's takedowns are telegraphed but Barberena will close distance and get clinched. He worries Nelson might not be motivated and could be a parlay buster.

"I do think Gunner Nelson wins because there's a bigger gap on the ground than there is anywhere else in this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Big Brady picks Nelson confidently, citing Barberena's atrocious takedown defense (taken down multiple times by lower-level fighters). He believes Nelson will take him down and submit him early. He predicts a first-round submission, noting Barberena was just submitted by RDA.

"I'm going to take Gunner Nelson first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Cody picks Nelson, emphasizing Barberena's poor takedown defense and tendency to give up his back. He notes Nelson's elite back-taking and body triangle control. He thinks Nelson wins by decision or submission, but after Nelson's last fight where he didn't chase submissions, he's less sure about a finish. He says the line is reflective of what should happen but feels trappy due to Nelson's inactivity and age.

"Gunner Nelson for me but minus 355... I think it's probably close to about right... the path is very clearly there"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Gunnar Nelson

Connor picks Nelson based on his wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes that Barberena is slow-footed and vulnerable to takedowns, as shown by RDA easily taking him down. Nelson has a quick shot and good clinch trips. Connor acknowledges that Nelson's striking defense is poor and he can be shocked standing, but believes Nelson's path to victory is clear via takedowns and control. He also mentions that Barberena's scrambling is solid but Nelson's control grappling is superior.

Nelson opened -300, currently -391; Barberena opened +250, currently +297
"It comes down to Gunnar Nelson's speed and the wrestling and his grappling that is going to... that's like the ace of his sleeve."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Jacob calls Nelson his most confident play on the card. He thinks Barberena is not a powerful puncher and will struggle with Nelson's range. He expects Barberena to close distance and get taken down via body clinch. He notes everyone takes Barberena down and Nelson should dominate on the ground.

"the gunar is my most confident play on this card because I think it is a perfect match of form."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Nelson is a high-level grappler with a karate-style striking base, but has struggled against top competition. Barberena is a durable brawler who has been finished by technically better fighters. Nelson should be able to take the fight to the ground and submit Barberena, though the submission prop may not offer value at the expected line.

submission (if plus money)
"I think that Gunner should win this fight... I think he does it via submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick. He discusses the trap potential: Nelson has had one fight in four years, is a small welterweight, and may not be the same fighter. He notes Barberena's ability to get back to his feet and that Nelson could get outstruck if he doesn't get a submission. He says he doesn't have the cojones to pick Barberena but has zero confidence in Nelson at the price.

"I don't know if I got the colonies to find barbarina I really don't... for this price point I have zero confidence in them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

The MMA Guru picks Gunnar Nelson to win by rear-naked choke, citing Barberena's short notice and defensive flaws exposed by Rafael dos Anjos. He notes Barberena repeatedly made the same mistake of lowering his stance, allowing inside trips. Nelson is a technical grappler who will exploit that and find a finish. He does not see Barberena having success on the feet either.

Nelson wins by submission (rear-naked choke)
"I'm gonna go with Gunner Nelson getting himself a real naked choke win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Gunnar Nelson

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Barberena's takedown defense is poor and Nelson's wrestling is a major threat. He notes that Barberena has been taken down multiple times by lesser wrestlers. Zane also points out that Nelson's striking is vulnerable but his grappling is elite. He thinks Nelson will likely get the fight to the ground and control it. Zane adds that Barberena's best chance is to keep it standing and land a big shot, but Nelson's speed and shot selection should prevail.

Nelson opened -300, currently -391; Barberena opened +250, currently +297
"It's just not a problem that's going to be solved against Gunnar Nelson."
WIN vs Takashi Sato
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Mar 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gunnar Nelson 0 44 of 55 80% 140 of 166 3 of 3 100% 1 0 8:09
Takashi Sato 0 9 of 23 39% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gunnar Nelson 0 24 of 29 82% 46 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:05
Takashi Sato 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Gunnar Nelson 0 12 of 16 75% 25 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:36
Takashi Sato 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Gunnar Nelson 0 8 of 10 80% 69 of 82 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:28
Takashi Sato 0 2 of 7 28% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gunnar Nelson 44 of 55 80% 36 of 47 7 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 20 1 of 2 33 of 33
Takashi Sato 9 of 23 39% 4 of 16 2 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gunnar Nelson 24 of 29 82% 21 of 26 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 8 0 of 1 20 of 20
Takashi Sato 4 of 12 33% 2 of 8 0 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gunnar Nelson 12 of 16 75% 9 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 7
Takashi Sato 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Gunnar Nelson 8 of 10 80% 6 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 6
Takashi Sato 2 of 7 28% 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Angelo picks Gunnar Nelson, predicting a submission win. He notes that Nelson has been away for two years due to rib injuries but has a short-notice opponent with grappling holes. He worries about Nelson's takedown entries leaving him hittable but thinks the UFC set him up for a win. He says Nelson probably wins by submission but acknowledges the layoff makes it uncertain.

prediction: wins by submission
"i think the stars have a line for him here but i would not be surprised if we see a pretty unmotivated gunner nelson who's kind of just doing this because he wants to fight in europe one last time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Big Brady picks Gunnar Nelson to win by first-round submission, but expresses concern about Nelson's two-year layoff. He believes if Nelson is anywhere near his best, he should submit Sato early, as Sato has been submitted three times and has poor ground game. Brady notes Nelson has fought elite competition like Gilbert Burns and Leon Edwards, while Sato's level is lower.

first round submission
"gunner nelson first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Cody picks Nelson by submission, noting Nelson's superior grappling and Sato's submission liability. He thinks Nelson will get the fight to the mat and find a submission. He mentions the prop is minus 110 and he took it.

nelson by submission minus 110
"nelson by submission probably makes it look easy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Daniel Levi picks Gunnar Nelson by submission, noting that Sato has lost 75% of his fights by submission and that Nelson has 12 submission wins. He acknowledges Nelson's low striking volume and questions his motivation, but believes Nelson only needs one takedown to finish. Levi also mentions the hometown advantage for British fighters at the O2, suggesting a decision win is possible if it goes the distance. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation due to the high price on Nelson.

Nelson by submission at -120; if goes to decision, Nelson wins
"most likely if gunny is anything like gunny used to be probably finds an opportunistic submission along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Nelson is a jiu-jitsu wizard who should get the fight to the ground and find a submission. Sato has been finished by submission in three of his last four losses, a huge red flag. However, ring rust and past injuries are concerns for Nelson. Sato has power and a karate style, but Nelson's grappling should be too much. I'd rather play Nelson inside the distance than the -450 line. I'm picking Nelson via second-round submission.

Nelson inside the distance; Nelson via submission round 2
"I do think that this is a tailor-made matchup for him to go out there and do what we all know he can do and that's use that jiu jitsu."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Paul picks Nelson, emphasizing his world-class skills and Sato's tendency to fade. He believes Nelson's cardio and grappling will be too much, and that Sato's power is only a threat early. He thinks Nelson will win handily, possibly by submission.

"gunner nelson should win this one pretty handily"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

The Guru picks Gunnar Nelson but expects a first-round scare where Sato drops him. He believes Nelson will recover, get a takedown, and eventually secure a rear-naked choke in round two or three. He notes Nelson's close losses to Leon Edwards and Gilbert Burns, and argues that if Burns couldn't finish him, Sato won't either. He predicts a late submission.

rear-naked choke round 2 or 3
"i'm gonna go gunna nelson... he gets dropped badly in round one and has to really fight back... eventually getting like a re-naked choke"
LOSS vs Gilbert Burns
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Sep 28, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 20 of 36 55% 26 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 4:49
Gunnar Nelson 0 30 of 76 39% 46 of 99 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Gunnar Nelson 0 11 of 28 39% 11 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
2 Gilbert Burns 0 6 of 14 42% 7 of 17 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:58
Gunnar Nelson 0 11 of 27 40% 18 of 34 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:57
3 Gilbert Burns 0 7 of 9 77% 12 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:23
Gunnar Nelson 0 8 of 21 38% 17 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 20 of 36 55% 9 of 23 4 of 5 7 of 8 18 of 32 2 of 3 0 of 1
Gunnar Nelson 30 of 76 39% 8 of 47 8 of 11 14 of 18 19 of 55 10 of 18 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 7 of 13 53% 4 of 9 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 1
Gunnar Nelson 11 of 28 39% 1 of 15 3 of 5 7 of 8 8 of 23 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Gilbert Burns 6 of 14 42% 3 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 12 1 of 2 0 of 0
Gunnar Nelson 11 of 27 40% 4 of 18 4 of 5 3 of 4 6 of 15 4 of 9 1 of 3
3 Gilbert Burns 7 of 9 77% 2 of 4 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gunnar Nelson 8 of 21 38% 3 of 14 1 of 1 4 of 6 5 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gunnar Nelson vs. Gilbert Burns

Round 1
A pair of welterweight submission specialists meet next, with Nelson (17-4-1, 8-4 UFC) looking to beat short-notice replacement Burns (16-3, 9-3 UFC). Referee Neil Hall is the third man inside the Octagon. The fight begins at range, with neither man ready to commit on any serious strikes. As Nelson tries to close the distance, Burns hits him with a leg kick and then a slapping left hand to separate them. Nelson sinks in a loud leg kick, but does not follow it with anything, allowing Burns to reply with one to Nelson's calf. "Gunni" tries to close the distance, but Burns defends before scoring another leg kick that bends the knee of Nelson. Nelson holds his hand outstretched, using it to find his range, and follows it with a right straight and a left hook that partially land. Burns commits to another leg kick, and then crashes forward but Nelson backs away. As Nelson comes in, he catches a knee, so he backs away and catches another leg kick for his troubles. The Icelandic fighter sneaks in a jab, and evades a low kick, as the two men seem content on engaging in a tentative kickboxing match. As Nelson comes in again, Burns sits down on an uppercut, forcing Nelson to retreat. The Brazilian charges in, winging shots that do not land before clinching up. Nelson scoops Burns' legs out from underneath him, and Burns tries for a leg lock but is nowhere near securing it as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
The second round opens with the two walking towards one another, and casually touch gloves before walking away. Burns starts out with a jab, and catches a side kick from Nelson. The action is few and far between as we get going, but Burns does score another low calf kick, and we can see Nelson's leg is changing color rapidly. "Gunni" whips a low kick that forces Burns to spin in a circle, and Nelson uses this moment to crash in and land a few strikes while Burns attempts to sit on the counter. Nelson tries to set up a takedown, and Burns is holding tight this time, but in the process Nelson scores a few short strikes in the clinch. Burns, with his back against the cage, looks confused as Nelson shoots in for a double leg that is easily stuffed. The Brazilian separates, and then crash together as Burns clubs Nelson with a right hand. With Nelson leaning on him, Burns tries to bring up a knee, causing Nelson to shrug his shoulders. The two break apart, and Nelson whiffs with a low kick. Nelson rushes in and tries to take the fight down again, but as they scuffle Burns judo throws him and lands Nelson on his head. "Gunni" immediately springs back up, so Burns leaps forward with a flying knee. As Nelson tries to take Burns down again, Burns defends it by trying to set up a brabo choke, but Nelson escapes. With 10 seconds left, Burns ends up on top and drops down a few hard punches, and the second stanza comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
Burns opens up with a spinning kick that falls well short of the target, and then they trade leg kicks. They come together again, and Nelson looks for a body lock before switching to a single, and Burns defends the attempts one by one. "Gunni" tries to set up a Thai clinch, but Nelson uses that moment to drop in a few short strikes and a right over the top. As they break, Burns wings a right hand that partially lands, causing Nelson to shoot in for a double again. Burns is strong against the fence, and stands up his Icelandic opponent. Burns slashes Nelson with an elbow, forcing Nelson to once again try for a takedown. There is nothing to be had for that attempt either, although he is racking up control time until Burns is tired of leaning against the fence. As they separate, Nelson loads up with a punch to the body, and Burns swings with all his might with a right hand that nearly causes him to fall over. Burns scores a few more effective leg kicks before launching a head kick that Nelson ducks. Another leg kick from Burns causes Nelson's leg to briefly buckle, so "Gunni" shoots in for yet another takedown. Burns shrugs it off, and uses the opportunity to lift up Nelson and slam him down emphatically. With 30 seconds left, Burns takes his opponent's back momentarily, but Nelson scrambles and stands back up quickly. This close fight wraps with Burns pressing Nelson against the cage, and the judges undoubtedly have their hands full with this one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns (29-28 Burns)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Gunnar Nelson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
LOSS vs Leon Edwards
Decision (split) (29–27, 29–28, 28–29) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Mar 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leon Edwards 1 31 of 49 63% 47 of 69 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:29
Gunnar Nelson 0 9 of 18 50% 27 of 38 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leon Edwards 0 5 of 9 55% 18 of 26 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:18
Gunnar Nelson 0 3 of 3 100% 6 of 7 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:26
2 Leon Edwards 1 23 of 36 63% 25 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Gunnar Nelson 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
3 Leon Edwards 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Gunnar Nelson 0 3 of 4 75% 18 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leon Edwards 31 of 49 63% 17 of 30 13 of 17 1 of 2 4 of 16 16 of 19 11 of 14
Gunnar Nelson 9 of 18 50% 3 of 10 4 of 5 2 of 3 4 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leon Edwards 5 of 9 55% 0 of 1 4 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 5 4 of 4 0 of 0
Gunnar Nelson 3 of 3 100% 0 of 0 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Leon Edwards 23 of 36 63% 16 of 27 7 of 8 0 of 1 3 of 11 9 of 11 11 of 14
Gunnar Nelson 3 of 11 27% 1 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Leon Edwards 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0
Gunnar Nelson 3 of 4 75% 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0
WIN vs Alex Oliveira
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:17 · UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Dec 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gunnar Nelson 0 36 of 49 73% 52 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 1 3:06
Alex Oliveira 0 11 of 11 100% 20 of 20 2 of 5 40% 1 0 4:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gunnar Nelson 0 30 of 40 75% 39 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:44
Alex Oliveira 0 2 of 2 100% 3 of 3 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:14
2 Gunnar Nelson 0 6 of 9 66% 13 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:22
Alex Oliveira 0 9 of 9 100% 17 of 17 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gunnar Nelson 36 of 49 73% 27 of 40 6 of 6 3 of 3 3 of 4 9 of 9 24 of 36
Alex Oliveira 11 of 11 100% 10 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gunnar Nelson 30 of 40 75% 25 of 35 4 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 5 24 of 34
Alex Oliveira 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Gunnar Nelson 6 of 9 66% 2 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 4 0 of 2
Alex Oliveira 9 of 9 100% 8 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 8
KO (punches) R1 1:22 · UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · Jul 16, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 5 of 7 71% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gunnar Nelson 1 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 5 of 7 71% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gunnar Nelson 1 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Santiago Ponzinibbio 5 of 7 71% 4 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gunnar Nelson 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 5 of 7 71% 4 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gunnar Nelson 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 3