UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · Dec 02, 2017 · Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 39
Height 6' 4"
Reach 83.0"
Weight 250 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 46
Height 6' 4"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Francis Ngannou
2.33 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
2.16 SApM
41.0% Str. Def.
0.76 TD Avg
62.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Alistair Overeem
3.67 SLpM
64.0% Str. Acc.
2.44 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.42 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Francis Ngannou - Fight History
WIN vs Ciryl Gane
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francis Ngannou 0 43 of 104 41% 71 of 139 4 of 5 80% 0 1 8:29
Ciryl Gane 0 63 of 91 69% 79 of 107 1 of 3 33% 3 0 2:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francis Ngannou 0 12 of 31 38% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Ciryl Gane 0 15 of 20 75% 24 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:05
2 Francis Ngannou 0 10 of 27 37% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Ciryl Gane 0 19 of 33 57% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Francis Ngannou 0 9 of 20 45% 19 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:55
Ciryl Gane 0 6 of 9 66% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:07
4 Francis Ngannou 0 7 of 13 53% 15 of 25 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:57
Ciryl Gane 0 16 of 17 94% 18 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Francis Ngannou 0 5 of 13 38% 13 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:44
Ciryl Gane 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francis Ngannou 43 of 104 41% 9 of 56 21 of 33 13 of 15 34 of 87 6 of 10 3 of 7
Ciryl Gane 63 of 91 69% 15 of 32 20 of 29 28 of 30 57 of 84 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francis Ngannou 12 of 31 38% 3 of 18 8 of 11 1 of 2 8 of 24 4 of 7 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 15 of 20 75% 4 of 7 9 of 11 2 of 2 10 of 14 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Francis Ngannou 10 of 27 37% 1 of 11 4 of 10 5 of 6 9 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 19 of 33 57% 4 of 11 4 of 10 11 of 12 19 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Francis Ngannou 9 of 20 45% 3 of 13 5 of 6 1 of 1 6 of 13 1 of 2 2 of 5
Ciryl Gane 6 of 9 66% 2 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Francis Ngannou 7 of 13 53% 0 of 6 4 of 4 3 of 3 6 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ciryl Gane 16 of 17 94% 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 11 16 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Francis Ngannou 5 of 13 38% 2 of 8 0 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 1
Ciryl Gane 7 of 12 58% 3 of 7 3 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Heavyweight Title Fight: Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane

Round 1
Former teammates collide in the UFC 270 main event, which comes in the form of a heavyweight championship unification battle. Ngannou (16-3, 11-2 UFC) will come in on a five-fight knockout streak that includes victories over three of the last five champions to hold the heavyweight strap before him, while Gane (10-0, 7-0 UFC) is a spotless 10 up and none down as he continues his quest for the undisputed belt. A bit of bad blood infiltrated the matchup due to a dispute about old sparring footage, but they still do elect to touch gloves as a prepared referee Herb Dean stands firm as the Octagon sentinel. Ngannou takes the center of the cage and starts to pressure Gane, only for Gane to rush in and pursue a takedown that gets stopped. The close range of Gane allows him to avoid the power shots, but when Ngannou gets backed up across the cage to the wall, he gets off a high knee. Gane pushes off and retreats, keeping a safe distance and kicking and Ngannou’s lead knee – both of the champ’s knees have braces on them. Ngannou closes in with a big punch, and he blocks a rising knee from Gane as they are tied up in the center of the cage. Gane gets some space with a short elbow, but Ngannou walks him down and delivers a painful uppercut up the middle that stuns Gane for a moment. Gane regains his composure and backs off, but he gets clipped with an uppercut, Gane escapes out the edge and evades most of the power punches that come his way, and he spins with a kick to the body. Ngannou walks him down, but Gane is light on his feet and staying away. Gane steps in suddenly with a knee before breaking away to get into a safe range, and he does so just when Ngannou loads up on a right hand. “The Predator” stalks his prey, only to come up short with a looping right hand. Ngannou kicks the knee and comes up high, and Gane pushes it off and ends in grappling range with the champ. Ngannou flirts with a takedown effort, but he abandons the try to knee Gane in the chest. “Bon Gamin” turns him about on the wall, staying tightly pressed to Ngannou so as to not absorb any short but powerful shots. Gane clings to his opponent, stifling Ngannou for a moment, but Ngannou still manages to land a knee and an uppercut as Gane pushes off. Ngannou marches ahead, and they stare down one another as the round comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou

Round 2
The heavyweights touch gloves to start off the second frame, and Gane leads off with a front kick that splits the guard. Ngannou mimics the blow with one of his own, and it gets swatted away. Ngannou is continually advancing as Gane is light on his feet with his hands low, so Ngannou kicks him in the thigh a few times with the ball of his foot. Gane then turns to side kick Ngannou in the knee, and darts away before Ngannou can get in on him. This does not stop Ngannou from trying, and when he misses, Gane chips away at his lead leg from a distance. Ngannou lifts up a high kick, and he then goes low with a stomping kick to the knee. Gane sticks out a jab, and his mobility keeps him away from the swinging shots that come at him. Ngannou eats a clean right hand that glances off the side of his ear, and he appears no worse for wear as he plods forward. Ngannou swings with a huge right hand, and the power is there but the accuracy is not, so Gane ducks it without concern. The punch leads Ngannou to tie him up, and he breaks off and misses by an inch with an overhand right. Gane picks and pokes Ngannou with low kicks before spinning with a wheel kick that clocks Ngannou in the top of the head. “The Predator” barely registers that the strike landed, and he continues to march ahead to line up a missile of a right hand. Ngannou kicks at the leg, and he absorbs one that comes back at him and makes him lift his leg up. Gane is loose and has his hands very low given the opponent staring across from him, and he relies on his movement to not let Ngannou get a hold of him. Ngannou sits down on a body kick, one that sneaks under Gane’s blocking elbow. Gane bounces around as Ngannou slowly aims for a big strike, and he walks face-first into a powerful uppercut that knocks Gane back but does not hurt him. The Frenchman gathers himself and delivers a kick on the outside of Ngannou’s leg, and then goes with the other leg to the midsection. Ngannou checks one more kick as the round comes to an end, and the crowd is not overly thrilled with the pace of these two big men.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 3
The big gentlemen meet in the middle, only for Gane to give ground immediately and back off. Gane keeps his hand up and his fingers outstretched in hopes that he can anticipate a power strike from Ngannou and block it. Ngannou secures a short uppercut on the chin, but whiffs badly on the power left hand. Gane sees another powerful left hand come at him, and he darts away and kicks Ngannou in the side. “The Predator” is enraged by this kick, and he lifts a 250-pound Gane up in the air like a sack of potatoes and slams him down to the mat with emphasis. Ngannou lands in side control, and he is heavily positioned on top and does not let Gane twist and turn. Gane ends up surrendering mount as he tries to scramble, and he turns over to give up his back in the process. Ngannou starts dropping down a few sledgehammers in the form of his ground-and-pound, and when Gane walks his way to his knees, Ngannou trips him back down. Gane is able to defend his face from punishment, standing up safely and getting up against the wall. Ngannou deftly throws Gane down to the mat, face-first, in what appears to be a painful slam. “Bon Gamin” does not seem concerned, calmly working his way up to his feet. As Gane is composed in the clinch, he smoothly breaks the grip and spins around to elbow Ngannou in the face. Ngannou eats the Frenchman’s spinning elbow like a baguette, and he continues to lumber forward and narrowly evades a spinning wheel kick that grazes his hair. Ngannou pursues his man and loads up on a punch to the body, only to change levels and hit a double-leg takedown and ground the interim titleholder. Gane tries to defend off his back with a kimura, but there is nothing there. The champ rides out the round on top without landing strikes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou

Round 4
Ngannou stands right in the center of the cage to begin the fourth round, and he lifts his leg up to check a kick that comes at him. “Bon Gamin” gets off a jab and scampers away from the power strikes that are telegraphed and not coming at him as frequently. The pitter-patter leg kicks and jabs from Gane frustrate Ngannou but do not appear to have an appreciable effect, and the crowd lets the two have it. Ngannou continues to ignore leg kicks, and he absorbs a clean side kick to the body while missing on the right hand counter. Gane gets interrupted on the way in with a low kick, so he replies with a slapping kick to Ngannou’s face. Ngannou does not appear thrilled by the kick, leading him to blitz forward and set up a body lock. “The Predator” succeeds on a toss to plant Gane on the mat again, and Gane is effective at protecting his mug from damage although he does give up control time. Gane works his way up to his knee and stand, but Ngannou trips him back down in a sneaky mat return. The Frenchman maneuvers his way up, and he pursues a standing kimura when Ngannou wrenches his legs out beneath him and puts Gane down again. Ngannou steps over to mount, and he loses it when Gane nearly sits up and out of it. Gane finds himself on his back, with a 260-ish pound Ngannou on top of him relying more on pressure than ground strikes. Gane sits up against the fence, and Ngannou knees him square in the chest in a very risky maneuver. Gane is struggling to stand as Ngannou is tightly pinned to him, and the champion holds him down to end the fourth frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou

Round 5
The champ and interim champ meet in the middle for one final touch of gloves. Gane backs away, and he steps in with a cheeky elbow that catches Ngannou clean. Gane lands a punch that makes Ngannou backpedal for a moment, and Gane stands right in front of him and kicks him in the leg and punches him in the body. Gane rushes ahead with a short combination, and Ngannou chows down on it like a steak. When Ngannou swings with a big punch, Gane ducks down and hits a takedown to plant the champion flat on his back. Ngannou looks to sit up, but he miraculously hits a sweep and turns Gane over to put him on his back. Gane defends effectively by dropping down with a heel hook, and Ngannou grimaces but grits it out to not allow Gane to sit up and get on top. Ngannou pops his leg out, and Gane goes for another that is not under the knee, so it is not as dangerous as the first. Like a snake, “The Predator” slithers over to re-take top control, sliding up to half guard and nearly claiming mount. Ngannou begins to set up an arm-triangle choke, but he does not present any other offense as Dean tells them to keep working. Gane sits up, allowing Ngannou to defend with a potential guillotine choke to sit him back down. The Frenchman keeps moving off his back, scooting his way towards the wall, and Ngannou pushes him back over as precious seconds tick off the clock. Gane is furious that he is being held down, and Ngannou finally lets a few punches go to end the fight on top. Some may be surprised that this fight went the distance, but
many
would be surprised that it was Ngannou that leaned on wrestling and effectively controlled Gane for long stretches of the fight. The bout in the books after 25 grueling minutes, the two men embrace and appear to have squashed the potentially manufactured beef. When Buffer announces the winner, it is not UFC President Dana White but matchmaker Mick Maynard that is in the cage to place the belt around the winner’s waist.
In his post-fight interview, Ngannou tells the crowd that he went through a great deal in this training camp, and three weeks ago, he completely tore his MCL tendon and hurt his ACL as well. Ngannou expresses his love for his home country and the fans, and tells the crowd that boxing is always in his back pocket but not an immediate goal for him. With that, UFC 270 is in the books, and the organization is taking a week off. When it comes back with UFC Fight Night 200 in February, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou (49-46 Ngannou)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou (48-47 Ngannou)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou (49-46 Ngannou)

The Official Result
Francis Ngannou def. Ciryl Gane via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo picks Ciryl Gane primarily due to contract negotiation factors, believing Ngannou may have motivation issues. He acknowledges Ngannou is the better fighter with power and takedown defense, but thinks Gane's only path is a decision. He notes the sparring footage where Gane's strikes didn't bother Ngannou.

contract negotiation factors
"i'm going to go with cyril gone because of the contract factors but the reality is francis ingano is more dangerous and i think francis inganu is the better fighter but the contract negotiation that stuff is very real and …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Big Brady picks Ciryl Gane to win by decision, citing Gane's superior cardio, output, footwork, fight IQ, and defensive soundness. He acknowledges Ngannou's devastating power and the threat of a one-punch knockout, comparing it to the Derrick Lewis fight. He expects Gane to fight smart, stay at range, and avoid danger, similar to his performance against Rozenstruik. He notes that Ngannou has never won a fight past the second round and has never been knocked out, but believes Gane has more paths to victory.

Gane by decision; mentions Ngannou's power and that the line should be closer; compares to Rozenstruik fight
"I'm going to take gone to win by decision maybe a late finish but nganu 19 fights never been knocked out and gano's durability is phenomenal"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody picks Ciryl Gane, emphasizing Gane's superior technique, footwork, cardio, and activity rate compared to Ngannou. He notes that Ngannou, despite his power, is 35 and fights infrequently, while Gane has gone five rounds and shown precision. Cody believes Gane's risk-averse style will allow him to avoid damage and tire Ngannou out in deeper waters. He also mentions the narrative that Ngannou may be distracted by contract disputes and a potential boxing career.

"I gotta go with the speed, the precision, and just the better all-around skill set, so sign me up for Ciryl Gane."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Francis Ngannou

Daniel Levi picks Francis Ngannou to win by knockout. He argues that Ngannou's power is generational and that Ciryl Gane has not faced anyone who can put him on the back foot. Levi notes that Gane drops his hands off kicks and leaves his chin exposed, and believes Ngannou's improved wrestling and fight IQ under Eric Nicksick will be key. He acknowledges Gane's elite movement but thinks Ngannou's power is a different level. Levi also mentions that Ngannou is in a great mental space and that the underdog price is too good to pass up.

Ngannou by KO; underdog price +132 is value
"you give me a line like that on francis and i'm taking my chances so uh yeah i'm gonna go with francis and ganu to knock out the very elusive and talented uh cyril god"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The host believes Ciryl Gane's mastery of range management and ability to avoid significant strikes will be key. He notes that Gane has passed the 'heavyweight power punching gauntlet' against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Derrick Lewis, and now faces Ngannou. He expects Gane to use his southpaw stance, body work, and fight IQ to weather the early storm and finish Ngannou in the later rounds, possibly round 4 or 5. He also mentions that Ngannou's cardio is a concern and that Gane is the type of fighter who can exploit that.

Gane round 4 (+1500), Gane round 5 (+2500), live betting on Gane as rounds progress
"i think if there's anybody that's going to be francis it's going to be sirigon sir gone and you i'm going to take him to win this fight around via round you know what let's call round five round five …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Francis Ngannou

Paul picks Francis Ngannou, arguing that Ngannou's power and speed combination gives him at least a 50-50 chance to knock out anyone. He acknowledges Gane's technical advantages and the big cage, but believes Ngannou's power carries into later rounds. Paul also mentions the narrative that Ngannou is motivated to prove himself and secure a better contract. He notes that Ngannou by KO is available at +175 and considers that a play.

Francis Ngannou by knockout +175 at DraftKings
"I'm of the opinion that Francis Ngannou against any person on earth when Francis Ngannou is wearing four ounce gloves has at least a 50-50 shot to knock them out."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane, calling him a future heavyweight GOAT. He praises Gane's technical striking, including oblique kicks, jabs, and leg kicks, which he believes will neutralize Ngannou's power. He notes Ngannou's distractions (contract disputes, movie appearances) and predicts a fourth-round TKO, as Gane's versatility and range management will be too much.

fourth round tko
"i'm trusting in cyril ghan i've never seen a heavyweight move like this i think he's going to be the goat"
WIN vs Stipe Miocic
KO (punch) R2 0:52 · UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 · Mar 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francis Ngannou 0 12 of 13 92% 12 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Stipe Miocic 2 36 of 56 64% 38 of 58 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francis Ngannou 0 8 of 8 100% 8 of 8 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Stipe Miocic 0 23 of 37 62% 24 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:19
2 Francis Ngannou 0 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stipe Miocic 2 13 of 19 68% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francis Ngannou 12 of 13 92% 3 of 4 2 of 2 7 of 7 12 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stipe Miocic 36 of 56 64% 28 of 46 2 of 4 6 of 6 17 of 36 8 of 8 11 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francis Ngannou 8 of 8 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 7 8 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stipe Miocic 23 of 37 62% 16 of 28 2 of 4 5 of 5 11 of 24 3 of 3 9 of 10
2 Francis Ngannou 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stipe Miocic 13 of 19 68% 12 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 12 5 of 5 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Stipe Miocic

Big Brady picks Stipe Miocic to win by fifth-round TKO. He believes Stipe is the more well-rounded fighter with better cardio and fight IQ. He expects Stipe to survive the early rounds by clinching and attempting takedowns to tire Ngannou, then take over as the fight progresses. He notes that Ngannou only landed two significant strikes after the second round in their first fight. However, he acknowledges Ngannou's one-shot knockout power and says he would not bet the fight at current odds.

Stipe by fifth-round TKO; Ngannou by KO prop; Stipe decision prop; odds comment: Stipe opened +135 now +100, Ngannou by KO is the way to bet Ngannou
"i do think stephen wins i'm going to say steepy wins with a fifth round tko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Francis Ngannou

Cody backs Ngannou, citing his generational power and the fact that he has been training wrestling defense with Kamaru Usman. He believes Ngannou's strategy is to go out and kill his opponent early, and if he lands, it's over. He acknowledges the cardio concerns but thinks Ngannou's durability held up in the first fight and that he has improved mentally since the Lewis loss.

Francis Ngannou round 1 +200
"francis ngani plus 200 round one that's all i've got action on this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Francis Ngannou

Daniel Levi picks Francis Ngannou to win by first-round knockout. He emphasizes that Ngannou is now focused, has the right team, and has learned from his first fight with Stipe. He notes that Stipe has absorbed over 300 head strikes since their first fight, including a knockout loss, while Ngannou has taken minimal damage. Levi believes Ngannou's power and improved mental approach will lead to a violent finish.

first round knockout
"i'm going francis be a first round knockout i think the trilogy is going to be great but i think it's time for francis to realize his dream"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Stipe Miocic

The host believes Stipe Miocic will retain his title by third-round TKO. He notes that Stipe has improved his cardio and fight IQ since their first fight, as seen in the Cormier trilogy. He expects Stipe to use head movement, smart takedown entries to the weak side, and mix in grappling to wear down Ngannou, who he thinks will gas after a round and a half if he doesn't get the knockout. He compares the matchup to Lewis vs Blaydes and Gane vs Rozenstruik, where the more skilled fighter won. He advises that if backing Ngannou, take the KO prop because he won't win by decision.

If backing Ngannou, take the KO prop; Stipe by third-round TKO
"I think he gets a third round finish here... I'll take him to win by third round tko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Stipe Miocic

Paul picks Stipe Miocic, emphasizing his wrestling advantage, cardio advantage, and later-round experience. He notes that Stipe has shown he can take Ngannou's punches and grind him down, as seen in the first fight. He also highlights Stipe's success in rematches, having avenged losses to JDS and Cormier. Paul is confident that if Ngannou doesn't knock him out early, Stipe will take over.

"i gotta i got to backsteep it the same way i did last time i got underdog money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Stipe Miocic

The Guru picks Stipe Miocic, emphasizing that Stipe has improved since the first fight: better footwork, cardio, wrestling, and clinch work from his camps against Daniel Cormier. He argues that Stipe's wrestling is the key difference, as he can take Ngannou down and control him, unlike other heavyweights who tried to stand and trade. He predicts Ngannou will be hesitant and gas out, leading to a TKO in the third or fourth round. He acknowledges the puncher's chance for Ngannou but relies on evidence over guesswork.

Stipe by TKO in round 3 or 4
"i'm picking stephen youtube to win he flies under the radar i think in ghana who's going to [ __ ] himself in there after the first round and stipe is going to ragdoll him"
KO (punches) R1 0:20 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francis Ngannou 1 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francis Ngannou 1 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francis Ngannou 6 of 13 46% 5 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 4
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 5 of 5 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francis Ngannou 6 of 13 46% 5 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 4
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 5 of 5 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Francis Ngannou

Big Brady picks Francis Ngannou by first-round knockout, expecting him to land a hard punch early. He notes that if Ngannou doesn't get the knockout, Rozenstruik could win a decision due to Ngannou's low activity. He sees value in betting Rozenstruik but ultimately goes with Ngannou.

Ngannou by first round knockout; Rozenstruik by decision value
"I'm going to go with Enanu first round knockout. Uh if he does not get that knockout, I am worried that Rosen Shrew will win a decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Francis Ngannou

Daniel Levi picks Francis Ngannou, acknowledging the risk due to Rozenstruik's timing and power, but believes Ngannou is the better fighter with more tools. He suggests Ngannou should use a clinch and takedown game plan, as Rozenstruik's takedown defense is weak. Levi notes that Ngannou's confidence is high after three wins, unlike the Lewis fight, and expects a knockout.

Ngannou by knockout
"I'm gonna take Francis but I don't want to say it's dog or pass you know because Francis has been coming out here and but these guys that he's been dealing our [ __ ] done man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Matt picks Rozenstruik as an underdog, believing the line at -270 for Ngannou is too wide. He notes Ngannou's rudimentary striking and reliance on power, while Rozenstruik has a wider arsenal and better kickboxing experience. He thinks if Rozenstruik can survive the early power, he can take over and finish Ngannou in the second round.

Rozenstruik by second-round TKO
"I'm actually gonna take Rosen strike by I'm gonna pick him to win... Rosen strike second-round TKO"
TKO (punches) R1 1:11 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. dos Santos · Jun 29, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francis Ngannou 1 9 of 19 47% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Junior dos Santos 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francis Ngannou 1 9 of 19 47% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Junior dos Santos 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francis Ngannou 9 of 19 47% 5 of 14 1 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 7
Junior dos Santos 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francis Ngannou 9 of 19 47% 5 of 14 1 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 7
Junior dos Santos 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
KO (punches) R1 0:26 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Feb 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francis Ngannou 0 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cain Velasquez 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francis Ngannou 0 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cain Velasquez 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francis Ngannou 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 3
Cain Velasquez 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francis Ngannou 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 3
Cain Velasquez 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R1 0:45 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · Nov 24, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francis Ngannou 0 1 of 8 12% 1 of 8 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Curtis Blaydes 1 13 of 17 76% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francis Ngannou 0 1 of 8 12% 1 of 8 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Curtis Blaydes 1 13 of 17 76% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francis Ngannou 1 of 8 12% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Curtis Blaydes 13 of 17 76% 11 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 6 5 of 5 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francis Ngannou 1 of 8 12% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Curtis Blaydes 13 of 17 76% 11 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 6 5 of 5 5 of 6
LOSS vs Derrick Lewis
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Jul 07, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derrick Lewis 0 11 of 46 23% 11 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francis Ngannou 0 20 of 54 37% 20 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derrick Lewis 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francis Ngannou 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derrick Lewis 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francis Ngannou 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Derrick Lewis 0 4 of 21 19% 4 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francis Ngannou 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derrick Lewis 11 of 46 23% 7 of 39 3 of 6 1 of 1 9 of 43 2 of 3 0 of 0
Francis Ngannou 20 of 54 37% 1 of 26 11 of 18 8 of 10 18 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derrick Lewis 1 of 7 14% 1 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Francis Ngannou 5 of 15 33% 1 of 9 3 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Derrick Lewis 6 of 18 33% 5 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0
Francis Ngannou 4 of 15 26% 0 of 9 3 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Derrick Lewis 4 of 21 19% 1 of 16 2 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Francis Ngannou 11 of 24 45% 0 of 8 5 of 8 6 of 8 9 of 22 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Francis Ngannou

Round 1
Ngannou creeps forward in the southpaw stance, testing the range with an outstretched hand, offering a few fakes. Neither heavyweight offers much of anything in the opening minute. Lewis, circling off his back foot, pauses and steps forward to counter an Ngannou low kick with a right hand. Ngannou switches to orthodox after Lewis throws a switch kick to the body. Lewis is being backed up to the fence, creating some space with kicks, then getting backed up again. Despite his constant forward pressure, Ngannou has done virtually nothing in terms of significant offense. Lewis tries a high single, gets shoved away by the "Predator," and the big men continue their stroll around the cage until the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Lewis
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Lewis
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-10

Round 2
The boo birds are out early in round two, following another 60 seconds of incactivity from the heavyweights. Ninety seconds in, Lewis comes over the top with a glancing right hand, then tries to get hold of Ngannou's legs, only to be shoved away by the hulking Frenchman. Ngannou pressures Lewis backward to the fence until Lewis backs him up with a high switch kick. Ngannou switches between stances as he jumps around in front of the "Black Beast." A few leg kicks land for Lewis as the tepid pace continues. With 1:10 on the clock, referee Herb Dean finally intervenes, cautioning the fighters to engage or risk a point deduction. Lewis gets a bit busier after the restart, though not by much, and the final minute ticks away without incident.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-10
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Lewis
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-10

Round 3
It's more of the same as the final round begins, with another minute of nothing between the big men. Ngannou fires a quick left high kick from the southpaw stance, but Lewis gets a glove up to block it. Referee Dean calls for action again; Lewis grabs for a clinch or takedown and is shoved away. With two minutes left, Lewis counters a kick from Ngannou with a left hand that puts the "Predator" in reverse. Lewis ducks as he steps forward and puts a punch on Ngannou's body. Ngannou throws a high kick and winds up spinning around as Lewis ducks underneath. Down to the final 40 seconds, Lewis lands a body kick and slips his head off center to avoid Ngannou's left hand. Ngannou catches a kick and tries to take down Lewis in the final 10 seconds. With Lewis leaning forward, balancing on his hands, Ngannou lands a cheap shot after the horn, a fittingly ugly end to one of the worst fights you'll see this year.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Lewis (30-28 Lewis)
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Lewis (30-27 Lewis)
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Lewis (30-29 Lewis)

The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Francis Ngannou via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
LOSS vs Stipe Miocic
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–44, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Jan 20, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stipe Miocic 0 70 of 95 73% 200 of 244 6 of 14 42% 0 0 15:02
Francis Ngannou 0 21 of 113 18% 33 of 126 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stipe Miocic 0 16 of 25 64% 24 of 33 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:57
Francis Ngannou 0 15 of 62 24% 18 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Stipe Miocic 0 17 of 24 70% 29 of 37 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:17
Francis Ngannou 0 4 of 27 14% 4 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Stipe Miocic 0 12 of 16 75% 47 of 58 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:47
Francis Ngannou 0 1 of 8 12% 7 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
4 Stipe Miocic 0 18 of 21 85% 82 of 95 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:39
Francis Ngannou 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Stipe Miocic 0 7 of 9 77% 18 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:22
Francis Ngannou 0 1 of 13 7% 4 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stipe Miocic 70 of 95 73% 45 of 67 9 of 11 16 of 17 37 of 52 5 of 6 28 of 37
Francis Ngannou 21 of 113 18% 17 of 106 4 of 7 0 of 0 19 of 105 2 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stipe Miocic 16 of 25 64% 13 of 22 2 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 19 2 of 2 2 of 4
Francis Ngannou 15 of 62 24% 14 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0 13 of 55 2 of 7 0 of 0
2 Stipe Miocic 17 of 24 70% 7 of 13 4 of 5 6 of 6 14 of 20 0 of 0 3 of 4
Francis Ngannou 4 of 27 14% 2 of 23 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Stipe Miocic 12 of 16 75% 8 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 4 4 of 5 2 of 2 6 of 9
Francis Ngannou 1 of 8 12% 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Stipe Miocic 18 of 21 85% 15 of 18 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 20
Francis Ngannou 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Stipe Miocic 7 of 9 77% 2 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 5 6 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
Francis Ngannou 1 of 13 7% 0 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem - Fight History
TKO (punches) R2 2:06 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Alistair Overeem 1 54 of 88 61% 54 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alistair Overeem 0 33 of 53 62% 33 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Alexander Volkov 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Alistair Overeem 1 21 of 35 60% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 10 of 20 50% 3 of 13 2 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 54 of 88 61% 47 of 81 3 of 3 4 of 4 40 of 65 11 of 18 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 8 of 14 57% 3 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 33 of 53 62% 26 of 46 3 of 3 4 of 4 22 of 34 8 of 14 3 of 5
2 Alexander Volkov 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 21 of 35 60% 21 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0 18 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov

Round 1
Five hundred nineteen and one-half pounds, not counting referee Jason Herzog, are in the cage now for our headliner. The two heavyweight strikers in Overeem (47-18, 1 NC; 12-7 UFC) and Volkov (32-8, 6-2 UFC) will determine who is perhaps a win away for a title shot, while the other falls to the middle of the pack with their hopes dashed. The big men respectfully touch gloves, and the cage door seals behind them as we begin. Volkov lands a huge leg kick, and Overeem backs off to shell up against the fence. Volkov lands a few strikes but does not fall into a trap of Overeem letting loose a counter strike. The Russian pulls back at the last second of a big kick to draw a reaction out of his opponent, and his strikes are already making Overeem flinch. Volkov lands a front kick down the middle, and Overeem tries to catch it and lets it go. Volkov chops at the calf with a kick, and he does not follow it and instead eats a huge right hand from “The Demolition Man.” Overeem loads up with another, and Volkov eats it like borscht and retreats against the cage wall. Volkov stalks down his opponent, but he takes a right hand and clinches up. Volkov separates, and he absorbs a left hand and fights off a takedown attempt. Volkov fires off a high kick that is blocked, and a single jab is pawed away without issue. Overeem ducks forward to land a big uppercut, and he continues along with a thudding body kick. Overeem backs off to land a kick to the thigh, and Volkov counters him with a left hand that puts Overeem down. Overeem might not be hurt and he may have slipped, but Volkov chases after him to hammer him with punches. Not sensing a finish, Volkov lets him back up and reaches out with his left jab. Volkov lands a couple punches and a knee up the middle, and he backs off to land a heavy kick to the body. Overeem lunges forward with a left hand, and Volkov picks at him with a low kick and a jab. Volkov chambers a right hand but does not throw it, and Overeem swings and misses wildly with a looping left. Volkov assaults Overeem with a barrage of punches, and Overeem covers up and takes some damage as his face is marked up. The round ends with Overeem aiming a punch to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
The heavyweights touch gloves to stat off the second round, and Overeem rushes forward shoulder first and eats a right hand. Overeem lets loose a head kick that gets blocked, and Volkov triples up on his left hand to sting Overeem. A solid one-two snaps Overeem’s head back, and Overeem ducks down to wing a left hook but it glances off the guard. Overeem crashes in to tie the Russian up, but he pushes Volkov away and gets jabbed. Volkov splits the guard with a few punches, and Overeem is stalking him down and pushes him back into the cage wall. “Drago” connects with a heavy one-two, and Overeem is in the danger zone. Overeem turns away as he takes another punch, and Volkov rips into him with punches in bunches. Volkov measures his shots and does not punch himself out, and Herzog cautions Overeem to defend himself. Overeem attacks a takedown but it is easily stuffed.
Volkov measures his strikes and lands punches that make Overeem’s legs wobble. “Drago” fires off a deadly one-two, and a bloodied Overeem stumbles to the canvas and topples over. Herzog has seen enough, and Volkov walks off knowing his work tonight is done.
We have a legitimate, new heavyweight contender on the rise, as Volkov notched a very impressive win against a devastatingly effective striker with a penchant for nasty finishes. Volkov goes down to join Overeem on his knees to thank him for the fight, showing respect for the legendary Dutchman in victory. In his post-fight interview, an eerily calm Volkov says it is his time, and that he is not done improving. With this fight card in the books, we return next week with a pay-per-view offering putting the welterweight title on the line.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Alistair Overeem R2 2:06 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov, emphasizing his cardio, output, and takedown defense. He notes that Overeem's chin is completely shot and that he has been knocked out 14 times. He expects Volkov to be the 15th to knock him out, likely in the later rounds. He also suggests looking at the over 1.5 rounds prop.

method: KO, round: 4, prop: over 1.5 rounds
"I'm gonna go with Volkov here to get a knockout, I'm gonna say he's gonna be the 15th person to knock out Alistair Overeem... give me like a fourth round knockout."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkov, citing his improved power at 265 pounds and his ability to sit down on punches. He notes Volkov's 40 pro fights and prime condition, and expects him to outpoint and eventually knock out Overeem. He respects Overeem but believes Volkov's size and power will be decisive.

"i think it's a fun competitive striking match until volkov lands on the chin of overeem"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

Overeem has shown evolution in his game since joining Team Elevation, landing 7 takedowns in his last 5 fights compared to only 3 in his first 13 UFC fights. He has accrued almost 18 minutes of control time in his last 3 fights, showing he can grind out wins. Volkov's takedown defense is sketchy (66% according to UFC stats) and he was taken down 14 times by Curtis Blaydes. Overeem's chin has held up well recently, and Volkov is not a one-punch knockout artist. Overeem's clinch work, knees, and top pressure should be key. I expect Overeem to slow the fight down, take Volkov down, and control him against the cage, winning a decision.

Overeem by decision; Overeem has at least a 40-45% chance to win, so plus money is value
"i like over him here i think he could kind of just slow this fight down i like the improvements that we've been seeing from him since he changed camps"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov, praising his patience, versatility, and takedown defense shown against Curtis Blaydes. He notes Overeem's tendency to shell up and get hit, and believes Volkov's front kicks and body work will be key. He predicts a second-round TKO via body shots, similar to Volkov's win over Walt Harris.

second round TKO by body shots
"i'm going with alexander volkov second round tko to the body shots"
WIN vs Augusto Sakai
TKO (elbows and punches) R5 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · Sep 05, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alistair Overeem 0 92 of 114 80% 106 of 131 3 of 3 100% 0 0 5:29
Augusto Sakai 0 99 of 173 57% 120 of 196 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alistair Overeem 0 11 of 18 61% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Augusto Sakai 0 22 of 36 61% 24 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
2 Alistair Overeem 0 13 of 16 81% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Augusto Sakai 0 24 of 40 60% 28 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
3 Alistair Overeem 0 23 of 27 85% 26 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Augusto Sakai 0 34 of 54 62% 48 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
4 Alistair Overeem 0 40 of 48 83% 49 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:18
Augusto Sakai 0 19 of 43 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
5 Alistair Overeem 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Augusto Sakai 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alistair Overeem 92 of 114 80% 53 of 73 30 of 31 9 of 10 28 of 43 16 of 16 48 of 55
Augusto Sakai 99 of 173 57% 66 of 130 25 of 34 8 of 9 62 of 127 35 of 43 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alistair Overeem 11 of 18 61% 2 of 9 6 of 6 3 of 3 6 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 22 of 36 61% 13 of 23 8 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 27 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Alistair Overeem 13 of 16 81% 5 of 7 7 of 7 1 of 2 4 of 7 9 of 9 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 24 of 40 60% 12 of 24 11 of 15 1 of 1 10 of 22 14 of 18 0 of 0
3 Alistair Overeem 23 of 27 85% 10 of 14 9 of 9 4 of 4 11 of 14 2 of 2 10 of 11
Augusto Sakai 34 of 54 62% 27 of 47 4 of 4 3 of 3 21 of 37 11 of 14 2 of 3
4 Alistair Overeem 40 of 48 83% 31 of 38 8 of 9 1 of 1 7 of 9 0 of 0 33 of 39
Augusto Sakai 19 of 43 44% 14 of 36 2 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Alistair Overeem 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 5
Augusto Sakai 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady picks Sakai mainly as a fade on Overeem's chin, noting Overeem has 13 knockout losses. He acknowledges Sakai is not a huge power puncher but believes he can catch Overeem. He mentions Overeem might have better cardio and could take Sakai down, but Sakai has 83% takedown defense. He suggests betting Sakai inside the distance.

Sakai inside the distance
"i'm gonna go with sakai it's basically a fade on overeem's chin which is not an awful look at this point in his career"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Daniel Levi picks Augusto Sakai to upset Alistair Overeem. He notes Sakai's underrated chin, having taken full KO blows from Arlovski without being hurt, and his methodical Muay Thai striking. Levi is concerned about Overeem's chin and tendency to admire his work, and believes Sakai will eventually catch Overeem, predicting a third-round knockout. He also mentions Sakai's competitive running background as a plus for cardio.

Sakai by KO in round 3
"i feel like sakai's got a very underrated chin man i haven't really seen him you know stumble get hurt drive none of that man so ... i feel like he's gonna come out here and knock alistair out i'ma …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

The host picks Overeem to win by third or fourth round TKO. He believes Overeem is better everywhere, with improved grappling and cardio since joining Team Elevation. He expects Overeem to wear on Sakai against the cage, take him down, and pound him out. He notes Overeem's chin is a concern but thinks he can survive Sakai's early power.

"i will take over him to win this fight probably by third or fourth round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

The MMA Guru picks Alistair Overeem, citing Sakai's lack of impressive wins and a controversial split decision over Andrei Arlovski that he considers a robbery. He believes Overeem's experience and ability to survive early storms will be key, and predicts a second or third round TKO via ground and pound. He notes Overeem's unappealing ground and pound style but expects it to be effective.

second or third round ground and pound tko
"i think overeem is actually gonna get a big ko here um maybe not a ko actually yeah no ko i think he takes down augusto sakai after rocking him gets the submission or gets a tko via crown and …"
WIN vs Walt Harris
TKO (punches) R2 3:00 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alistair Overeem 1 68 of 85 80% 97 of 115 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:22
Walt Harris 1 25 of 48 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alistair Overeem 0 27 of 33 81% 48 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:56
Walt Harris 1 24 of 42 57% 24 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
2 Alistair Overeem 1 41 of 52 78% 49 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Walt Harris 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alistair Overeem 68 of 85 80% 58 of 75 8 of 8 2 of 2 7 of 10 1 of 1 60 of 74
Walt Harris 25 of 48 52% 19 of 41 6 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 19 1 of 3 18 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alistair Overeem 27 of 33 81% 21 of 27 5 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 4 1 of 1 23 of 28
Walt Harris 24 of 42 57% 18 of 36 6 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 13 1 of 3 18 of 26
2 Alistair Overeem 41 of 52 78% 37 of 48 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 37 of 46
Walt Harris 1 of 6 16% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Walt Harris

Big Brady picks Walt Harris by first-round knockout, citing Overeem's diminished chin and Harris' power. He notes that Overeem is likely the better fighter overall but cannot be trusted due to his chin, which has been knocked out 13 times. He believes Harris will land one shot and finish the fight. He acknowledges that Overeem could win if he takes Harris down, but doubts his wrestling is good enough. He mentions the emotional motivation for Harris after his daughter's passing.

first-round knockout, fight ends inside distance -425, emotional motivation
"I'm gonna go with Walt Harris here... I think it takes one shot to knockout over him and I think Walt Harris has that shot one of the hardest hitters in the heavyweight division so I like Walt Harris to …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 16, 2020 (fight day)
Walt Harris

Daniel Levi picks Walt Harris via vicious knockout. He believes Harris has turned a corner, putting things together, and has the proper technique and power to put away Overeem. He notes that Overeem is the more skilled fighter but has a small margin for error and is in denial about his recent KO loss. Levi emphasizes that Harris should stay composed and not fight too emotionally.

vicious knockout
"I got Walt Harris via vicious knockout I think he is gonna have that moment I think he will touch the chin of Overeem"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

The host is torn but ultimately picks Overeem, citing his experience and ability to adjust after the Rozenstruik fight. He believes Overeem will be elusive, avoid Harris's early power, and take the fight to the ground for a TKO. He admits he's rooting for Harris due to his personal story but thinks Overeem's skills and tools will prevail.

Overeem by TKO in the third round
"I think I'm gonna go of Alistair Overeem win him by a second-round TKO I think he's gonna ground and pound Walt Harris"
KO (punch) R5 4:56 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · Dec 07, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 74 of 105 70% 101 of 135 2 of 10 20% 0 0 8:19
Alistair Overeem 1 89 of 209 42% 109 of 229 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 13 of 15 86% 27 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:14
Alistair Overeem 0 5 of 13 38% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 14 of 20 70% 17 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:06
Alistair Overeem 0 19 of 35 54% 28 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 18 of 25 72% 27 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:30
Alistair Overeem 0 14 of 33 42% 22 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 18 of 28 64% 18 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alistair Overeem 0 30 of 73 41% 30 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 11 of 17 64% 12 of 18 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
Alistair Overeem 1 21 of 55 38% 21 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 74 of 105 70% 48 of 76 12 of 13 14 of 16 46 of 76 9 of 9 19 of 20
Alistair Overeem 89 of 209 42% 57 of 169 16 of 20 16 of 20 68 of 180 19 of 27 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 13 of 15 86% 11 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 10
Alistair Overeem 5 of 13 38% 1 of 8 0 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 14 of 20 70% 4 of 10 8 of 8 2 of 2 7 of 13 7 of 7 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 19 of 35 54% 9 of 23 7 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 25 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 18 of 25 72% 14 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 2 8 of 14 1 of 1 9 of 10
Alistair Overeem 14 of 33 42% 7 of 26 4 of 4 3 of 3 8 of 26 4 of 5 2 of 2
4 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 18 of 28 64% 13 of 22 0 of 0 5 of 6 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 30 of 73 41% 23 of 63 4 of 5 3 of 5 25 of 64 5 of 9 0 of 0
5 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 11 of 17 64% 6 of 12 0 of 0 5 of 5 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 21 of 55 38% 17 of 49 1 of 1 3 of 5 19 of 53 2 of 2 0 of 0
TKO (knees and punches) R1 4:45 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alistair Overeem 1 29 of 33 87% 31 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:10
Aleksei Oleinik 0 38 of 58 65% 78 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alistair Overeem 1 29 of 33 87% 31 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:10
Aleksei Oleinik 0 38 of 58 65% 78 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alistair Overeem 29 of 33 87% 23 of 27 6 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 8 12 of 13 12 of 12
Aleksei Oleinik 38 of 58 65% 15 of 34 23 of 24 0 of 0 12 of 26 26 of 32 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alistair Overeem 29 of 33 87% 23 of 27 6 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 8 12 of 13 12 of 12
Aleksei Oleinik 38 of 58 65% 15 of 34 23 of 24 0 of 0 12 of 26 26 of 32 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R1 4:21 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · Nov 24, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alistair Overeem 0 22 of 26 84% 26 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
Sergei Pavlovich 0 13 of 32 40% 18 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alistair Overeem 0 22 of 26 84% 26 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
Sergei Pavlovich 0 13 of 32 40% 18 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alistair Overeem 22 of 26 84% 13 of 16 8 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 5 7 of 7 12 of 14
Sergei Pavlovich 13 of 32 40% 9 of 25 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 22 5 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alistair Overeem 22 of 26 84% 13 of 16 8 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 5 7 of 7 12 of 14
Sergei Pavlovich 13 of 32 40% 9 of 25 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 22 5 of 10 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alistair Overeem vs. Sergei Pavlovich

Round 1
Overeem crouches low with a high guard as he circles Pavlovich, feinting and testing the reactions of the Russian newcomer. Pavlovich clips “The ‘Reem” with a right hand, then shoves him away when Overeem attempts to tie up. An uppercut leaves Overeem covering up momentarily, but he recovers and drives forward to push Pavlovich against the wall. Pavlovich spins to the outside position in the clinch and walks Overeem out toward the middle, then the Dutchman reclaims control and marches him back to the fence. Pavlovich drops levels to try a double-leg, and now Overeem abandons the clinch to step back to the center. Overeem swings a big right hand at Pavlovich, tries to grab the Russian in the Thai clinch and winds up tossing him to the ground. Overeem kneels down in Pavlovich’s open guard, then stands over him with 60 seconds on the clock. Suddenly, Overeem turns up the volume on his right hands, smashing Pavlovich’s face with thunderous hammerfists. Pavlovich eats a couple punches before going fetal and turning away from Overeem. The body language is not good, and Overeem continues to pour on the right hands, prompting referee John Sharp to step in for the stoppage.

The Result
Alistair Overeem def. Sergey Pavlovich via TKO (Punches) R1 4:21
LOSS vs Curtis Blaydes
TKO (elbows) R3 2:56 · UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Jun 09, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Curtis Blaydes 0 7 of 12 58% 24 of 31 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Alistair Overeem 0 37 of 53 69% 62 of 85 4 of 4 100% 0 0 7:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 1 of 3 33% 10 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alistair Overeem 0 1 of 5 20% 9 of 15 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:19
2 Curtis Blaydes 0 4 of 5 80% 11 of 12 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Alistair Overeem 0 13 of 20 65% 25 of 36 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:31
3 Curtis Blaydes 0 2 of 4 50% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alistair Overeem 0 23 of 28 82% 28 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Curtis Blaydes 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2
Alistair Overeem 37 of 53 69% 32 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 16 12 of 14 22 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Curtis Blaydes 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2
Alistair Overeem 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Curtis Blaydes 4 of 5 80% 2 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 13 of 20 65% 10 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 6 2 of 3 11 of 11
3 Curtis Blaydes 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 23 of 28 82% 21 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 6 10 of 11 10 of 11
LOSS vs Francis Ngannou
KO (punch) R1 1:42 · UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · Dec 02, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francis Ngannou 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alistair Overeem 1 6 of 14 42% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francis Ngannou 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alistair Overeem 1 6 of 14 42% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francis Ngannou 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 6 of 14 42% 4 of 12 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 10 3 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francis Ngannou 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 6 of 14 42% 4 of 12 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 10 3 of 3 1 of 1