UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov, emphasizing his cardio, output, and takedown defense. He notes that Overeem's chin is completely shot and that he has been knocked out 14 times. He expects Volkov to be the 15th to knock him out, likely in the later rounds. He also suggests looking at the over 1.5 rounds prop.

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkov, citing his improved power at 265 pounds and his ability to sit down on punches. He notes Volkov's 40 pro fights and prime condition, and expects him to outpoint and eventually knock out Overeem. He respects Overeem but believes Volkov's size and power will be decisive.

Overeem has shown evolution in his game since joining Team Elevation, landing 7 takedowns in his last 5 fights compared to only 3 in his first 13 UFC fights. He has accrued almost 18 minutes of control time in his last 3 fights, showing he can grind out wins. Volkov's takedown defense is sketchy (66% according to UFC stats) and he was taken down 14 times by Curtis Blaydes. Overeem's chin has held up well recently, and Volkov is not a one-punch knockout artist. Overeem's clinch work, knees, and top pressure should be key. I expect Overeem to slow the fight down, take Volkov down, and control him against the cage, winning a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov, praising his patience, versatility, and takedown defense shown against Curtis Blaydes. He notes Overeem's tendency to shell up and get hit, and believes Volkov's front kicks and body work will be key. He predicts a second-round TKO via body shots, similar to Volkov's win over Walt Harris.

Big Brady picks Cory Sandhagen, calling the odds 'insane' and noting Sandhagen's striking volume and durability. He acknowledges Frankie Edgar's path to victory via takedowns, but believes Sandhagen's ability to get back up and his chin will prevail. He predicts a knockout, citing Edgar's declining chin, and suggests looking at the knockout prop for better value.

Daniel Levi leans with Cory Sandhagen, acknowledging Frankie Edgar's takedown threat and Sandhagen's poor takedown defense (30%). He notes Edgar's experience against taller fighters and his durability at 135, but believes Sandhagen's striking output and range will be key. He says it's a dog-or-pass situation and doesn't blame anyone betting on Edgar.

Sandhagen's unorthodox style, feints, and footwork will be difficult for Edgar to deal with. He uses his reach and height advantage well, and his diverse striking (kicks, spinning attacks) should keep Edgar at range. Edgar has struggled with bigger fighters who can maintain distance. Sandhagen's takedown defense is a concern, but Edgar's wrestling may not be as effective at 135. I expect Sandhagen to win a decision by landing the better shots and controlling the distance. The line is a bit wide, but Sandhagen should get the win.

The MMA Guru picks Cory Sandhagen, calling him a deserving favorite but criticizing the -440 odds as too high. He highlights Sandhagen's length, kicking game, and takedown defense. He predicts Sandhagen will use front kicks and question mark kicks to set up a head kick TKO in the second round, noting Edgar's boxing will be negated by range.

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson but with low trust, calling him one of the least trustworthy fighters. He notes Johnson's massive striking advantage and excellent takedown defense, but warns that Johnson often loses as a big favorite. He expects Johnson to win a decision by outpointing Guida, but advises leaving him off parlays.

Daniel Levi picks Michael Johnson but is hesitant due to Johnson's history of pulling stunts and losing fights he should win. He acknowledges Johnson's speed and better competition, but worries about his takedown defense and submission vulnerability. He suggests live betting Clay Guida if he gets takedowns, but pre-fight goes with Johnson.

Michael Johnson is extremely untrustworthy, having lost 6 of his last 8 fights with mental lapses and slip-ups. He has all the skills but cannot be relied upon. Clay Guida brings relentless pressure, takedowns, and clinch work, and has a great gas tank. Johnson's takedown defense and fight IQ are questionable. Guida should be able to grind out a decision by pushing Johnson against the cage and taking him down. Skill-for-skill Johnson is better, but Guida's mentality and experience give him the edge.

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, believing his grappling is good enough to stuff Clay Guida's takedowns. He notes Johnson's wins over Poirier and Ferguson, and training with Usman. He predicts Johnson will land big shots early and finish Guida by TKO in the first or second round, suggesting Guida should retire.

Big Brady picks Alexandre Pantoja, emphasizing his elite grappling and durability. He notes that Manel Kape has struggled with wrestlers and grapplers, and once taken down, he has little to offer off his back. He expects Pantoja to take the fight to the mat and find a submission, predicting a third-round rear-naked choke.

Daniel Levi picks Pantoja, emphasizing his massive grappling advantage and the need to take Kape down to avoid getting knocked out. He notes Kape's knockout power and Pantoja's tendency to brawl, but believes Pantoja can expose Kape on the ground. He mentions Kape's past losses to wrestlers and Pantoja's losses only to top competition.

Pantoja is a high-level jiu-jitsu black belt with experience against top flyweights. He should look to take the fight to the ground, where Kape has struggled. Kape is making his UFC debut and has fought mostly in a ring, so the cage could be a factor. Pantoja's chin is solid enough to survive Kape's early attacks. I expect Pantoja to get takedowns and eventually secure a submission. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Kape, so Pantoja needs an early finish.

The MMA Guru picks Alexandre Pantoja, citing his experience, chin, and recent activity. He questions Manel Kape's year off and debut in a cage, noting Kape fought in Rizin with shoes. He believes Pantoja's power and pressure will be too much, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision. He thinks Kape should be a bigger underdog.

Big Brady slightly edges Carlos Diego Ferreira, citing his durability and output advantage. He notes that Dariush has been knocked out three times and Ferreira is not a knockout artist, but Ferreira's volume could be key. He expects a very close decision and admits it's a coin-flip fight.

Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush, noting his wrestling and top control advantage. He acknowledges Ferreira's improved boxing and footwork, but believes Dariush's grappling and ability to avoid submissions will be key. He mentions Dariush's past win over Ferreira and his experience against high-level grapplers.

Ferreira has transformed his game since joining Fortis MMA, showing improved striking, pace, and pressure. He averages 283 strikes thrown per fight and has great cardio. His takedown defense has improved, and he gets back to his feet quickly. Dariush has been in firefights recently and may struggle with Ferreira's constant forward pressure. Ferreira's durability and chin are solid. I expect Ferreira to push the pace, outwork Dariush, and win a decision. The line is fair and Ferreira is the better fighter now.

The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush in a close fight, noting the odds should be 50-50. He praises Dariush's youth, activity, and improving stand-up, citing his performance against Edson Barboza. He questions Ferreira's wins over aging opponents and thinks Dariush's grappling will keep him safe. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.

Daniel Levi picks Devonte Smith confidently, citing his calf kicks, jab, and straight right. He notes Smith's 8-inch reach advantage and expects him to weather Jaynes' early storm and finish him in the second round. He mentions Smith's bounce-back potential after a torn Achilles and personal issues.

The MMA Guru picks Alex da Silva (Justin Jaynes) with hesitation, noting the fight is very close. He was impressed by da Silva's performance against Brad Riddell, showing good striking and grappling. He worries about Devonte Smith's chin after a KO loss to Kamal Worthy and thinks the threat of takedowns will make Smith gun-shy. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for da Silva.

Big Brady picks Karol Rosa, highlighting her high output and the threat of takedowns against Joselyne Edwards, who struggles off her back. He notes that Edwards is coming in on short notice and may fade in the third round. He expects Rosa to win a decision, but thinks the line at -230 is a bit wide and would have preferred the opener at -185.

Daniel Levi picks Karol Rosa, citing her well-rounded game, volume striking, and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Edwards' bright future but believes Rosa's experience and clinch/ground advantage will be decisive. He expects a decision win for Rosa.

Rosa has a more complete game with good combinations, leg kicks, and fight IQ. She trains with Jessica Andrade and has a size advantage. Edwards is still green and this is a tough test on short notice. Rosa's volume and pressure should be key. Edwards has speed and power, but Rosa's durability and experience should carry her. I expect Rosa to win a decision by outworking Edwards.

The MMA Guru favors Karol Rosa due to her superior technique, calling her an 'amazing fighter' with great fundamentals. He acknowledges Joselyne Edwards' potential but notes her sloppiness. He predicts Rosa will use straight shots to counter Edwards' looping punches and win a 30-27 unanimous decision.

Big Brady picks the underdog Lara Procópio, believing she has multiple paths to victory. He notes that Procópio is a black belt in BJJ and will have a massive grappling advantage if the fight goes to the mat. He also thinks the striking is close and that Molly McCann may be overrated, as her wins have come against lower-level competition. He predicts a decision win, possibly a submission.

Daniel Levi picks Molly McCann, believing she lands harder shots and has better boxing. He acknowledges Procópio's jiu-jitsu credentials but hasn't seen them translate to MMA. He notes McCann's takedown ability and thinks she can win a decision if she avoids submissions.

Procópio is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and should have a significant grappling advantage. McCann has poor takedown defense (33%) and has been submitted before. Procópio's takedowns are effective when she sets them up, unlike the desperation shots she threw against Rosa. She can hold her own on the feet enough to get the fight to the ground. At plus money, this is a value play. I expect Procópio to get a submission in the first or second round.

The MMA Guru picks the underdog Lara Procópio, acknowledging the risk. He likes her reach advantage and technique, and thinks she can stuff takedowns. He notes Molly McCann's takedowns lack control. He predicts a close split decision win for Procópio, saying the odds should be 50-50.

Big Brady picks the underdog SeungWoo Choi, disagreeing with the line that has Zalal as a heavy favorite. He notes that Zalal may struggle to take Choi down, and if the fight stays standing, Choi's striking is very impressive. He also mentions that Zalal is coming in on short notice, which adds to his uncertainty. He is not overly confident but likes the value at plus money.

Daniel Levi picks SeungWoo Choi as a dog-or-pass, viewing it as a close fight. He notes Choi's takedown defense (stuffed 11 vs Evloev, 8 vs Tucker) and believes his physical attributes and kickboxing make him live. He thinks the line moved too far in Zalal's favor and sees value on Choi.

Zalal is a well-rounded fighter with good cardio and a solid ground game. He should be able to mix in takedowns and grind out a decision. Choi has a tough run in the UFC and tends to fade as fights go on. Zalal's pace and pressure will be too much. I expect Zalal to win by decision, using his wrestling and volume striking.

The MMA Guru picks the underdog SeungWoo Choi, believing the odds should be even. He highlights Choi's Muay Thai background and reach advantage, and doubts Zalal's offensive grappling ability to expose Choi's ground game. He predicts Choi will piece Zalal up on the feet for two rounds, possibly slowing in the third, winning a 30-27 decision.

Big Brady picks Timur Valiev, citing his higher output, better fight IQ, and advantages everywhere on the feet and on the mat. He notes that Valiev was winning his last fight before getting caught, and that Martin Day is 0-3 in the UFC with questionable fight IQ. He expects Valiev to win a dominant decision, but warns that the odds may be too high to bet.

Daniel Levi picks Timur Valiev confidently, citing his dynamic and well-rounded game. He notes Valiev's loss to Trevin Jones was due to gassing out while trying to finish, and expects a more measured approach. He believes Valiev's striking and takedown ability will overwhelm Martin Day.

Valiev is a well-rounded fighter with good kicks and solid wrestling. Day has lost three straight and makes poor decisions, like leaving his neck exposed in submissions. Valiev's striking and grappling should be too much. However, the line is expected to be very high (around -400), so there is no betting value. I expect Valiev to win by decision.

The MMA Guru is very confident in Timur Valiev, calling this a 'lamb for slaughter'. He notes Valiev's high-level competition and only two losses, one a split decision to Chris Gutierrez which he avenged. He believes Martin Day is on a losing streak and took this fight on short notice, predicting a first-round TKO.

Big Brady picks Jerome Rivera, citing his legit wrestling and ground game, and expects him to get takedowns and control the fight. He notes that Ode' Osbourne is a threat off his back with submissions, but believes Rivera's top game will prevail. He predicts a decision win, possibly a submission, but is wary of Osbourne's submission threat.

Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne confidently, comparing his style to Yuri Alcantara. He notes Rivera's lack of takedowns (0 in three UFC fights) and believes Osbourne's athleticism and striking will be too much. He expects a finish or clear decision.

Rivera has good wrestling and submission skills, and Osbourne has shown poor takedown defense and cardio issues. Osbourne has only been to the second round once, so his gas tank is unknown. Rivera should be able to take Osbourne down and control him. I expect Rivera to win by submission in the second round.

The MMA Guru picks Dennis Bondar (Jerome Rivera) over Ode' Osbourne, citing Bondar's calmness in bad positions and scrambling ability. He expects Osbourne to throw wild shots early, which Bondar will counter with takedowns. He predicts a submission win via arm triangle in the second round after Osbourne gasses.