UFC on Fox: Machida vs. Rockhold · Apr 18, 2015 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on Fox: Machida vs. Rockhold Next Fight
Age 32
Height 5' 4"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 41
Height 5' 4"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Paige VanZant
3.35 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
2.62 SApM
42.0% Str. Def.
1.27 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
34.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Felice Herrig
3.84 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
5.19 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
1.08 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Paige VanZant - Fight History
LOSS vs Amanda Ribas
Submission (armbar) R1 2:21 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Ribas 0 6 of 7 85% 13 of 15 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:08
Paige VanZant 0 3 of 5 60% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Ribas 0 6 of 7 85% 13 of 15 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:08
Paige VanZant 0 3 of 5 60% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Ribas 6 of 7 85% 1 of 1 4 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 3 0 of 0
Paige VanZant 3 of 5 60% 1 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Ribas 6 of 7 85% 1 of 1 4 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 3 0 of 0
Paige VanZant 3 of 5 60% 1 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Big Brady picks Amanda Ribas by second-round submission, stating she wins everywhere – on the feet and on the ground. He notes VanZant may have improved but Ribas is the better fighter overall, and he expects a submission given VanZant's history of being submitted.

submission round 2
"give me a reboss i'm gonna go second round submission ... reebos wins this fight everywhere she wins it on the feet she wins on the ground i am very very high on reeboks"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Daniel Levi is extremely confident in Amanda Ribas, calling it a mismatch. He notes Ribas is a top prospect and will dominate everywhere. He believes Paige VanZant is being fed to Ribas as a highlight-reel win, and expects Ribas to finish via submission or complete domination. He dismisses any chance of an upset.

predicts submission or 30-24/30-25 decision
"I got Amanda Reba's by finishing the spot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Ribas is better than VanZant in every area: striking, grappling, and jiu-jitsu. VanZant's only chance is to wrestle, but that plays into Ribas's strength. Ribas should dominate and finish, likely by first-round rear-naked choke. Not betting due to heavy favorite odds.

first round rear naked choke
"I'll say first round rear naked choke for Amanda he busts"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The Guru picks Ribas, noting that VanZant tried to outwrestle Ribas and failed. He mentions that the odds on VanZant are juicy but he still puts money on Ribas. He also comments that VanZant has only fought twice in four years and is lucky to have a job.

Mentions VanZant at +550 odds, says 'I put money on bands on anyway because those odds are too juicy to pass up'
"I put money on bands on anyway because those odds are too juicy to pass up"
Submission (armbar) R2 1:50 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Jan 19, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paige VanZant 0 17 of 27 62% 38 of 56 0 of 1 0% 2 0 4:33
Rachael Ostovich 0 10 of 14 71% 13 of 18 4 of 4 100% 0 0 0:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paige VanZant 0 2 of 7 28% 12 of 17 0 of 1 0% 1 0 4:12
Rachael Ostovich 0 6 of 8 75% 9 of 12 3 of 3 100% 0 0 0:06
2 Paige VanZant 0 15 of 20 75% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:21
Rachael Ostovich 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paige VanZant 17 of 27 62% 13 of 23 1 of 1 3 of 3 5 of 13 0 of 0 12 of 14
Rachael Ostovich 10 of 14 71% 7 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paige VanZant 2 of 7 28% 1 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rachael Ostovich 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3
2 Paige VanZant 15 of 20 75% 12 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 14
Rachael Ostovich 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · Jan 14, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jessica-Rose Clark 0 54 of 118 45% 96 of 162 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:33
Paige VanZant 0 55 of 98 56% 78 of 122 2 of 3 66% 1 1 5:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jessica-Rose Clark 0 7 of 16 43% 21 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Paige VanZant 0 12 of 25 48% 24 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 1 3:40
2 Jessica-Rose Clark 0 19 of 29 65% 47 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:29
Paige VanZant 0 15 of 22 68% 26 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:58
3 Jessica-Rose Clark 0 28 of 73 38% 28 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paige VanZant 0 28 of 51 54% 28 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jessica-Rose Clark 54 of 118 45% 29 of 75 18 of 32 7 of 11 40 of 100 2 of 3 12 of 15
Paige VanZant 55 of 98 56% 36 of 71 12 of 19 7 of 8 32 of 67 7 of 11 16 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jessica-Rose Clark 7 of 16 43% 5 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 1 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Paige VanZant 12 of 25 48% 9 of 21 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 15 3 of 5 4 of 5
2 Jessica-Rose Clark 19 of 29 65% 15 of 23 3 of 5 1 of 1 6 of 13 1 of 1 12 of 15
Paige VanZant 15 of 22 68% 10 of 17 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 15
3 Jessica-Rose Clark 28 of 73 38% 9 of 40 13 of 24 6 of 9 27 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paige VanZant 28 of 51 54% 17 of 33 6 of 12 5 of 6 25 of 46 3 of 5 0 of 0
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:21 · UFC on Fox: VanZant vs. Waterson · Dec 17, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 5 of 12 41% 9 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paige VanZant 0 12 of 17 70% 13 of 18 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 5 of 12 41% 9 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paige VanZant 0 12 of 17 70% 13 of 18 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 5 of 12 41% 1 of 6 2 of 3 2 of 3 4 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paige VanZant 12 of 17 70% 6 of 9 3 of 4 3 of 4 10 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 5 of 12 41% 1 of 6 2 of 3 2 of 3 4 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paige VanZant 12 of 17 70% 6 of 9 3 of 4 3 of 4 10 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
WIN vs Bec Rawlings
KO (jumping switch kick and punches) R2 0:17 · UFC on Fox: Maia vs. Condit · Aug 27, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paige VanZant 1 25 of 63 39% 27 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Bec Rawlings 0 21 of 51 41% 30 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paige VanZant 0 16 of 48 33% 17 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Bec Rawlings 0 21 of 50 42% 30 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Paige VanZant 1 9 of 15 60% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Bec Rawlings 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paige VanZant 25 of 63 39% 14 of 38 4 of 12 7 of 13 15 of 45 3 of 7 7 of 11
Bec Rawlings 21 of 51 41% 15 of 41 6 of 10 0 of 0 9 of 34 12 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paige VanZant 16 of 48 33% 6 of 26 4 of 11 6 of 11 13 of 41 3 of 7 0 of 0
Bec Rawlings 21 of 50 42% 15 of 40 6 of 10 0 of 0 9 of 33 12 of 17 0 of 0
2 Paige VanZant 9 of 15 60% 8 of 12 0 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 11
Bec Rawlings 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Rose Namajunas
Submission (rear-naked choke) R5 2:25 · UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · Dec 10, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 0 57 of 100 57% 104 of 158 8 of 10 80% 4 0 16:40
Paige VanZant 0 10 of 50 20% 53 of 97 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 20 of 40 50% 28 of 53 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:09
Paige VanZant 0 2 of 14 14% 13 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Rose Namajunas 0 10 of 18 55% 20 of 28 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:37
Paige VanZant 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Rose Namajunas 0 17 of 30 56% 28 of 45 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:19
Paige VanZant 0 3 of 21 14% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
4 Rose Namajunas 0 7 of 7 100% 23 of 23 2 of 2 100% 2 0 4:24
Paige VanZant 0 1 of 3 33% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
5 Rose Namajunas 0 3 of 5 60% 5 of 9 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:11
Paige VanZant 0 3 of 7 42% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 57 of 100 57% 43 of 82 12 of 16 2 of 2 27 of 53 9 of 13 21 of 34
Paige VanZant 10 of 50 20% 2 of 30 4 of 15 4 of 5 8 of 46 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 20 of 40 50% 16 of 35 4 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 21 4 of 5 7 of 14
Paige VanZant 2 of 14 14% 0 of 8 0 of 3 2 of 3 2 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rose Namajunas 10 of 18 55% 7 of 13 2 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 6 3 of 6 3 of 6
Paige VanZant 1 of 5 20% 0 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Rose Namajunas 17 of 30 56% 13 of 25 3 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 19 1 of 1 7 of 10
Paige VanZant 3 of 21 14% 0 of 13 2 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Rose Namajunas 7 of 7 100% 4 of 4 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 4
Paige VanZant 1 of 3 33% 1 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Rose Namajunas 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paige VanZant 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Alex Chambers
Submission (armbar) R3 1:01 · UFC 191: Johnson vs. Dodson 2 · Sep 05, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paige VanZant 0 73 of 130 56% 165 of 248 3 of 7 42% 1 0 7:12
Alex Chambers 0 30 of 47 63% 66 of 88 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paige VanZant 0 27 of 59 45% 65 of 107 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:46
Alex Chambers 0 17 of 27 62% 40 of 51 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:10
2 Paige VanZant 0 38 of 59 64% 84 of 118 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:37
Alex Chambers 0 10 of 17 58% 23 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
3 Paige VanZant 0 8 of 12 66% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:49
Alex Chambers 0 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paige VanZant 73 of 130 56% 37 of 78 32 of 43 4 of 9 19 of 52 47 of 71 7 of 7
Alex Chambers 30 of 47 63% 23 of 36 3 of 7 4 of 4 16 of 26 14 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paige VanZant 27 of 59 45% 13 of 34 12 of 19 2 of 6 4 of 22 22 of 36 1 of 1
Alex Chambers 17 of 27 62% 14 of 22 1 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 13 9 of 14 0 of 0
2 Paige VanZant 38 of 59 64% 18 of 34 19 of 23 1 of 2 13 of 24 24 of 34 1 of 1
Alex Chambers 10 of 17 58% 7 of 12 1 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 10 5 of 7 0 of 0
3 Paige VanZant 8 of 12 66% 6 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 5
Alex Chambers 3 of 3 100% 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Felice Herrig
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 29–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Machida vs. Rockhold · Apr 18, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paige VanZant 0 28 of 47 59% 44 of 67 0 of 4 0% 1 1 2:43
Felice Herrig 0 67 of 92 72% 199 of 241 2 of 5 40% 0 2 10:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paige VanZant 0 16 of 24 66% 21 of 31 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:42
Felice Herrig 0 21 of 29 72% 45 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:24
2 Paige VanZant 0 11 of 18 61% 17 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:42
Felice Herrig 0 16 of 28 57% 60 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:43
3 Paige VanZant 0 1 of 5 20% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Felice Herrig 0 30 of 35 85% 94 of 114 1 of 2 50% 0 1 4:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paige VanZant 28 of 47 59% 12 of 24 14 of 20 2 of 3 8 of 20 18 of 24 2 of 3
Felice Herrig 67 of 92 72% 45 of 67 14 of 17 8 of 8 8 of 15 22 of 27 37 of 50
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paige VanZant 16 of 24 66% 7 of 12 8 of 11 1 of 1 4 of 9 10 of 13 2 of 2
Felice Herrig 21 of 29 72% 11 of 19 7 of 7 3 of 3 4 of 8 11 of 12 6 of 9
2 Paige VanZant 11 of 18 61% 5 of 9 5 of 7 1 of 2 4 of 7 7 of 10 0 of 1
Felice Herrig 16 of 28 57% 9 of 18 4 of 7 3 of 3 2 of 5 8 of 11 6 of 12
3 Paige VanZant 1 of 5 20% 0 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 30 of 35 85% 25 of 30 3 of 3 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 25 of 29
Felice Herrig - Fight History
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:01 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 55 of 122 45% 59 of 126 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Felice Herrig 0 82 of 123 66% 102 of 146 0 of 2 0% 2 0 3:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 30 of 73 41% 34 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Felice Herrig 0 48 of 70 68% 50 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:16
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 25 of 49 51% 25 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Felice Herrig 0 34 of 53 64% 52 of 74 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 55 of 122 45% 34 of 92 20 of 28 1 of 2 49 of 116 6 of 6 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 82 of 123 66% 54 of 94 23 of 24 5 of 5 57 of 96 17 of 18 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 30 of 73 41% 15 of 50 15 of 22 0 of 1 25 of 68 5 of 5 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 48 of 70 68% 30 of 51 15 of 16 3 of 3 34 of 55 14 of 15 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25 of 49 51% 19 of 42 5 of 6 1 of 1 24 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 34 of 53 64% 24 of 43 8 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 41 3 of 3 8 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Felice Herrig

Angelo calls this a coin flip fight with too many variables. He notes Karolina is the better fighter but looks like a shell of herself, while Felice is scrappy and well-rounded. He reluctantly picks Felice because he believes she still has passion, but advises not to bet on this fight.

advises not to bet on this fight
"honestly i don't want to pick it i don't want to bet it there's too many variables to work on here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Big Brady picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz to win by a very close decision. He thinks the fight will play out like their first fight, with Kowalkiewicz stuffing takedowns and out-striking Herrig. However, he is very hesitant because both fighters are on long losing streaks and he questions Kowalkiewicz's mindset after five straight losses. He calls it a 'complete mess' and an 'unbeatable fight' from a betting perspective.

"give me carolina to win i'll say she stuffed the takedowns and out strikes felice herrig"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz, arguing that her losses came against elite competition while Herrig has been inactive. He notes Herrig's takedown-dependent style and thinks Kowalkiewicz can stuff takedowns and win on volume. He is hesitant due to both fighters' age and recent form.

"i'll go with carolina but i don't know if i can put money my hard-earned dollars on karolina kovalkovic in the year 2022."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz as a slight underdog, noting she won their first fight and that both fighters are past their prime. He mentions Herrig's long layoff and focus on OnlyFans, while Kowalkiewicz has health issues. He calls it a 'dog or pass' fight and advises against betting, but leans toward Kowalkiewicz for the pick.

"i'll go with the underdog who actually beat the favorite one so let's go with carolina to get back on track"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, noting her superior striking and takedown defense from their first fight. He acknowledges both fighters are washed but believes Kowalkiewicz's activity and training at ATT give her an edge. He is not confident due to women's MMA volatility.

"give me uh give me carolina kovakovich but of course women's mma so you just you can't have a ton of confidence"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz but with clear disdain and low confidence. He calls the fight a 'sympathy bout' and questions why it's on the card. He notes Kowalkiewicz has good grappling defense and is scrappy, and she won the first fight, so he expects her to win again. However, he admits 'who knows' and seems to care little about the outcome.

"i'm going to go kovalkavich she's got good grappling defense in her career she's scrappy on the feet"
LOSS vs Virna Jandiroba
Submission (armbar) R1 1:44 · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 1 of 1 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Felice Herrig 0 4 of 5 80% 12 of 15 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 1 of 1 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Felice Herrig 0 4 of 5 80% 12 of 15 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 5
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Big Brady thinks Jandiroba will get takedowns and control the fight on the ground, but he is not impressed with her striking. He notes Herrig is the better striker and could win if she stuffs takedowns. He sees value on Herrig as an underdog.

value on Herrig if she stuffs takedowns
"i'm going to pick jan roberto to win probably by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Daniel Levi picks Virna Jandiroba to win by submission. He believes Jandiroba is a specialist on the ground and will get takedowns against Herrig, who is coming off a two-year layoff and ACL surgery. He notes that Herrig has been submitted before and that Jandiroba's takedown game, though basic, should be enough. He also mentions that if Jandiroba can't get takedowns, she could struggle, but he expects her to succeed.

Jandiroba by submission; Herrig's layoff and surgery are concerns; line is a bit wide but pick is solid
"i'll go with the jandarova"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Jandiroba is a high-level grappler with heavy top pressure and a strong submission game; she will take Herrig down with double legs and work for a finish. Herrig is returning from a two-year layoff and ACL surgery, and her takedown defense is questionable. Jandiroba may win by submission or decision, but she should dominate on the ground.

Jandiroba wins by submission in round 2; also mentions decision possible
"I think Jandiroba will have not too much difficulty with getting Herrig down... I do like Virna to win this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Felice Herrig

The MMA Guru picks Felice Herrig, despite criticizing her skills, because she is bigger, stronger, and has fought better competition. He notes that Jandiroba's record is padded with cans and that Herrig had a training camp booked previously, so she is prepared.

boring decision
"i think that felice herrig is going to get the job done verna janda robert is good i just don't think she's fought good competition"
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Oct 06, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 76 of 107 71% 131 of 163 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:50
Felice Herrig 0 51 of 100 51% 70 of 126 1 of 4 25% 0 0 5:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 17 of 33 51% 24 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Felice Herrig 0 23 of 51 45% 27 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:44
2 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 26 of 30 86% 50 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:50
Felice Herrig 0 11 of 19 57% 16 of 25 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:23
3 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 33 of 44 75% 57 of 68 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Felice Herrig 0 17 of 30 56% 27 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 76 of 107 71% 47 of 73 26 of 29 3 of 5 16 of 41 34 of 38 26 of 28
Felice Herrig 51 of 100 51% 15 of 51 26 of 36 10 of 13 19 of 60 30 of 37 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 17 of 33 51% 9 of 22 6 of 7 2 of 4 8 of 23 9 of 10 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 23 of 51 45% 6 of 24 12 of 19 5 of 8 12 of 39 11 of 12 0 of 0
2 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 26 of 30 86% 16 of 19 10 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 3 12 of 14 13 of 13
Felice Herrig 11 of 19 57% 2 of 9 6 of 7 3 of 3 2 of 8 8 of 9 1 of 2
3 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 33 of 44 75% 22 of 32 10 of 11 1 of 1 7 of 15 13 of 14 13 of 15
Felice Herrig 17 of 30 56% 7 of 18 8 of 10 2 of 2 5 of 13 11 of 16 1 of 1
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · Apr 07, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 126 of 248 50% 140 of 262 0 of 3 0% 0 1 1:10
Felice Herrig 0 86 of 216 39% 97 of 228 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 35 of 73 47% 46 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:31
Felice Herrig 0 21 of 59 35% 24 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:04
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 51 of 91 56% 54 of 94 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:39
Felice Herrig 0 27 of 69 39% 31 of 73 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 40 of 84 47% 40 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Felice Herrig 0 38 of 88 43% 42 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 126 of 248 50% 82 of 191 31 of 42 13 of 15 80 of 192 43 of 53 3 of 3
Felice Herrig 86 of 216 39% 62 of 181 19 of 25 5 of 10 62 of 178 24 of 38 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 35 of 73 47% 20 of 57 13 of 14 2 of 2 17 of 53 15 of 17 3 of 3
Felice Herrig 21 of 59 35% 15 of 51 4 of 6 2 of 2 16 of 49 5 of 10 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 51 of 91 56% 32 of 65 13 of 19 6 of 7 29 of 65 22 of 26 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 27 of 69 39% 19 of 58 7 of 8 1 of 3 16 of 54 11 of 15 0 of 0
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 40 of 84 47% 30 of 69 5 of 9 5 of 6 34 of 74 6 of 10 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 38 of 88 43% 28 of 72 8 of 11 2 of 5 30 of 75 8 of 13 0 of 0
WIN vs Cortney Casey
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · Dec 02, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Felice Herrig 0 76 of 262 29% 82 of 268 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:35
Cortney Casey 0 91 of 233 39% 92 of 234 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Felice Herrig 0 22 of 68 32% 27 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:33
Cortney Casey 0 29 of 66 43% 30 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
2 Felice Herrig 0 29 of 96 30% 30 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Cortney Casey 0 31 of 94 32% 31 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Felice Herrig 0 25 of 98 25% 25 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 31 of 73 42% 31 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Felice Herrig 76 of 262 29% 47 of 219 11 of 16 18 of 27 75 of 260 1 of 1 0 of 1
Cortney Casey 91 of 233 39% 68 of 208 3 of 4 20 of 21 90 of 229 1 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Felice Herrig 22 of 68 32% 16 of 59 3 of 4 3 of 5 21 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 1
Cortney Casey 29 of 66 43% 23 of 60 0 of 0 6 of 6 29 of 65 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Felice Herrig 29 of 96 30% 20 of 83 4 of 5 5 of 8 29 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 31 of 94 32% 23 of 85 1 of 2 7 of 7 30 of 92 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Felice Herrig 25 of 98 25% 11 of 77 4 of 7 10 of 14 25 of 98 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 31 of 73 42% 22 of 63 2 of 2 7 of 8 31 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 1
WIN vs Justine Kish
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · Jun 25, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Felice Herrig 0 47 of 93 50% 131 of 182 2 of 5 40% 1 0 9:24
Justine Kish 0 40 of 72 55% 50 of 84 0 of 2 0% 0 1 1:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Felice Herrig 0 10 of 17 58% 32 of 40 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:10
Justine Kish 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:06
2 Felice Herrig 0 16 of 47 34% 23 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:35
Justine Kish 0 26 of 48 54% 35 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:37
3 Felice Herrig 0 21 of 29 72% 76 of 87 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:39
Justine Kish 0 6 of 11 54% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Felice Herrig 47 of 93 50% 40 of 86 7 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 63 1 of 2 22 of 28
Justine Kish 40 of 72 55% 28 of 57 8 of 10 4 of 5 28 of 58 5 of 6 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Felice Herrig 10 of 17 58% 9 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 8 1 of 1 4 of 8
Justine Kish 8 of 13 61% 6 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 4
2 Felice Herrig 16 of 47 34% 11 of 42 5 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justine Kish 26 of 48 54% 19 of 39 5 of 6 2 of 3 19 of 41 3 of 3 4 of 4
3 Felice Herrig 21 of 29 72% 20 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 8 0 of 1 18 of 20
Justine Kish 6 of 11 54% 3 of 7 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Alexa Grasso
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · Feb 04, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Felice Herrig 0 80 of 206 38% 88 of 215 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:14
Alexa Grasso 0 60 of 246 24% 66 of 252 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Felice Herrig 0 16 of 45 35% 18 of 47 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Alexa Grasso 0 14 of 86 16% 14 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Felice Herrig 0 34 of 74 45% 39 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alexa Grasso 0 24 of 85 28% 28 of 89 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
3 Felice Herrig 0 30 of 87 34% 31 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Alexa Grasso 0 22 of 75 29% 24 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Felice Herrig 80 of 206 38% 43 of 153 13 of 22 24 of 31 78 of 203 2 of 2 0 of 1
Alexa Grasso 60 of 246 24% 36 of 188 21 of 46 3 of 12 52 of 235 5 of 6 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Felice Herrig 16 of 45 35% 9 of 31 1 of 5 6 of 9 15 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alexa Grasso 14 of 86 16% 10 of 70 2 of 9 2 of 7 13 of 84 1 of 1 0 of 1
2 Felice Herrig 34 of 74 45% 16 of 53 7 of 9 11 of 12 33 of 73 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alexa Grasso 24 of 85 28% 12 of 60 12 of 23 0 of 2 20 of 81 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Felice Herrig 30 of 87 34% 18 of 69 5 of 8 7 of 10 30 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 1
Alexa Grasso 22 of 75 29% 14 of 58 7 of 14 1 of 3 19 of 70 0 of 1 3 of 4
WIN vs Kailin Curran
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:59 · UFC on Fox: Holm vs. Shevchenko · Jul 23, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Felice Herrig 0 13 of 30 43% 15 of 32 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:00
Kailin Curran 0 5 of 17 29% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Felice Herrig 0 13 of 30 43% 15 of 32 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:00
Kailin Curran 0 5 of 17 29% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Felice Herrig 13 of 30 43% 5 of 19 5 of 7 3 of 4 13 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kailin Curran 5 of 17 29% 4 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Felice Herrig 13 of 30 43% 5 of 19 5 of 7 3 of 4 13 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kailin Curran 5 of 17 29% 4 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0