UFC on Fox: Machida vs. Rockhold · Apr 18, 2015 · Lightweight · Completed
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Age 37
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 42
Height 5' 8"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Beneil Dariush
3.78 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
2.62 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
2.11 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jim Miller
2.92 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.44 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.5 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
48.0% TD Def.
1.7 Sub. Avg
Beneil Dariush - Fight History
TKO R1 3:29 · UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 02, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beneil Dariush 0 3 of 9 33% 4 of 10 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:32
Quillan Salkilld 1 12 of 19 63% 15 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beneil Dariush 0 3 of 9 33% 4 of 10 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:32
Quillan Salkilld 1 12 of 19 63% 15 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beneil Dariush 3 of 9 33% 2 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 2 0 of 0
Quillan Salkilld 12 of 19 63% 11 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 13 2 of 3 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beneil Dariush 3 of 9 33% 2 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 2 0 of 0
Quillan Salkilld 12 of 19 63% 11 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 13 2 of 3 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld

Round 1
In the co-main event, perennial contender Dariush (23-7-1; 17-7-1 UFC) will look to slow the rise of the red-hot Aussie Salkilld (11-1; 4-0 UFC), who has racked up quite the highlight reel since graduating from the Contender Series two years ago. Rich Mitchell draws his final referee assignment of the evening. Salkilld is orthodox, Dariush southpaw, and they exchange awkward pawing jabs with their lead hands. Out of nowhere, Dariush blasts Salkilld with a left hand, buckling his knees! Dariush is all over him but Salkilld recovers quickly, nailing Dariush with a left hand on his way in. Dariush shoves Salkilld into the fence, mugs him with a couple of punches and tries to secure a takedown. Salkilld goes to a knee but doesn’t give up the takedown, and he returns to his feet a moment later. Salkilld reverses the position and drives Dariush into the fence, only to be reversed again. Dariush works for a single-leg against the fence, but Salkilld patiently defends. They separate and Salkilld briefly changes levels, then comes back up and blasts him with a right hand.
Dariush is hurt badly, trying to get his hands on the youngster and recover, but Salkilld crushes him with another right hand that drops him. Salkilld follows up with a stream of big lefts until Mitchell interposes himself, awarding the TKO, and the biggest win of his career, to Quillan Salkilld.

The Official Result
Quillan Salkilld def. Beneil Dariush R1 3:29 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Angelo picks Quillan Salkilld, acknowledging that Beneil Dariush is past his prime with a compromised chin and cardio. He believes Salkilld is the better striker and should win, but hopes Dariush doesn't get knocked out badly. He notes that if Salkilld tries to grapple, Dariush might have an advantage.

"Quan's going to be the pick. I'll be rooting hard for Ben Darus though."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Big Brady picks Quillan Salkilld to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Beneil Dariush has elite skills but a completely compromised chin, and that Salkilld has power and has knocked out durable opponents. Brady believes Dariush will get touched early and finished, especially given his age and weight cut issues.

Salkilld by KO, round 1
"Give me Quillin Sal Khill to win this fight and win it by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Cody picks Salkilld by knockout, citing Dariush's declining durability and history of getting knocked out. He notes Salkilld's power and length, and believes Dariush's chin is no longer reliable.

KO prop
"Kill him and Sfield uh wins by knockout. That's my official pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Daniel Vreeland picks Quillan Salkilld, believing he is catching Beneil Dariush at a good time. He notes Salkilld's well-rounded skills and momentum, while Dariush has shown vulnerability to knockouts and may be past his prime. He expects a competitive fight but sees Salkilld's damage as decisive.

"I think Quillin's catching him at a good time. Kind of a big favorite, kind of a big price for my liking, but I'm going to pick Quillin South to win this fight."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Odds feel very wide; Salkilld is a big favorite but unproven. Dariush is declining but skilled. The fight spread on Dariush (+3.5) and over 1.5 rounds are interesting but not committed. No bet on moneyline; dog or pass.

Considering Dariush +3.5 fight spread and over 1.5 rounds
"I think it's dog or pass, Dariush or nothing. I'm not going to be betting this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Lucrative James picks Quillan Salkilld to win via knockout in round one. He cites Beneil Dariush's declining chin and recent knockout losses, and believes the UFC is setting up Salkilld as a prospect. He notes Dariush's weight cut issues and desire to move up to welterweight.

"I think Quillin's going to knock him out, boys. That's all I really have to say."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

The host picks Salkilld due to his youth, durability, and well-rounded skills. He expects Salkilld to strike first and find a knockout, likely early in round one. The host notes Dariush's chin issues and recent knockout loss, making it hard to trust him despite his grappling prowess.

Knockout win; round one finish
"I think if Salkild comes out there striking first, striking heavy, striking focused, he should be able to find that big shot to to put uh Darush away here. So, um I'll go Sil. I'll go Sill by by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Paul agrees with Cody, stating Dariush has all the skills but can't take a punch anymore. He highlights Salkilld's power and the fact that Dariush has been knocked out repeatedly, making Salkilld by KO the likely outcome.

KO prop
"I can't agree more. I mean, Benil Der has got all the other skills... but his ability to take a punch isn't quite there anymore."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

The MMA Guru picks Quillan Salkilld, citing his first-round finishing potential and the pattern of younger athletes beating Dariush. He notes Dariush's recent chin issues and believes Salkilld will get a first-round TKO. He acknowledges Salkilld's grappling skills but expects a striking finish.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Quillin Sal Caged getting this one done. TKO early first round."
KO R1 0:16 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beneil Dariush 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Benoît Saint Denis 1 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beneil Dariush 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Benoît Saint Denis 1 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beneil Dariush 3 of 5 60% 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
Benoît Saint Denis 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beneil Dariush 3 of 5 60% 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
Benoît Saint Denis 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 3 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his relentless pressure and wrestling. He believes Beneil Dariush is aging and was sloppy in his last fight. Despite Dariush's scrambling skills, Angelo thinks BSD's grit and non-stop pace will overcome technique. He notes he would have picked Dariush a few years ago.

"I have to go with Benois. I think good old-fashioned grit will beat just technique."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing Beneil Dariush's compromised chin. He notes Dariush has been knocked out in three of his last four fights, including by Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan, and was dropped by Hakeem Dawodu. Brady believes Saint Denis can take a punch better at this stage and predicts a first-round knockout in a war. He acknowledges Dariush's elite anti-grappling and skills but says the chin is the deciding factor.

first round knockout
"I'm going to say he's going to knock him out in the first round. It's going to be Ben Saint Anthony by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Cody picks Dariush despite the risk of a first-round knockout. He notes that Dariush has excellent grappling and cardio, and that Saint Denis tends to fade and take damage in longer fights. Cody believes that if Dariush survives the early onslaught, he can take over with his wrestling and pressure. He suggests a live bet if Dariush gets through the first round.

"if he does not get KO'd stiff in the first round, he's live. He's live to win this fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Connor picks Dariush confidently, citing his superior grappling and scrambling. He notes that Saint Denis relies on aggression and faith in his conditioning, but Dariush is a fluid control grappler who will stay ahead in scrambles. He warns that Dariush could lose if knocked out, but in any grappling exchange, Dariush wins.

Odds: Dariush opened +250, now +160; Saint Denis opened -300, now -185. Connor comments that the line movement is age-based.
"I got to pick Dariouche. It's fairly simple. Same. Yep. If he loses, it's because he gets knocked out. If there's any grappling at all, he's very likely to win."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Daniel thinks Dariush is the better overall fighter but his chin is suspect, and Saint Denis has the power and pressure to test it. He notes that Saint Denis is riding high on confidence after dismantling Ruffy, while Dariush looks a fight or two away from retirement. He leans toward Saint Denis finding a knockout, but acknowledges Dariush has paths to victory if he can avoid getting hit clean.

"I kind of lean Santi to find that kill shot, but if he doesn't, this fight could play out in a variety of ways."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Lucrative James picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by knockout, despite acknowledging Dariush's superior scrambling and counter-grappling. He believes Dariush's durability is a major concern, as he has been knocked out multiple times and is getting older. He thinks BSD's relentless pressure and power will eventually catch Dariush on the feet, even if he struggles to secure takedowns. He predicts a KO victory for BSD, possibly via head kick or in a transition.

by KO
"I got Benois Denv knockout here, man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Dariush is the better fighter. Saint Denis struggles to get grappling going. Dariush scrambles out of bad positions, keeps Saint Denis on the defensive, and finds a finish in the second or third round.

finish in the second or third round
"I think Santine will struggle to get his grappling going and ultimately that should lead to Daruse scrambling out of bad positions, keeping Sandi on the defensive and eventually finding a finish in the second or third round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Paul agrees with Cody, preferring to watch the first round before betting due to the knockout risk. He notes that Saint Denis has gassed in past fights and that Dariush's takedown defense is excellent. Paul thinks that if Dariush can avoid early trouble, he can outwork Saint Denis and potentially submit him. He is not fully confident but leans towards Dariush.

"I'd prefer because of the first round knockout risk that is with every single Dariush fight to kind of just watch see how it plays out a little bit."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

The Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by TKO in round two. He believes Saint Denis' pressure, clinch work, and body shots will wear down Dariush, who may struggle with the pace. He notes that both are evenly matched on the ground, but Saint Denis has a higher KO percentage and momentum. The Guru expects Saint Denis to break Dariush against the cage.

TKO in round 2
"I'm going to go with Benois. I'm going to go with Benoir. I think his clinch work will be good here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Dariush. He emphasizes that Saint Denis' aggressive, throw-himself-in style will not work against Dariush's relaxed, anticipatory grappling. He notes that Saint Denis lost to Moicano by being overwhelmed, and Dariush is a better grappler than Moicano.

Same odds commentary.
"I think you just can't rely on that kind of attitude against Benoit Dariouche. You have to go out there and be ready to pick him off and make him pay for his own overaggression."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beneil Dariush 0 56 of 107 52% 77 of 131 5 of 5 100% 0 0 5:53
Renato Moicano 1 31 of 61 50% 38 of 69 0 of 3 0% 0 1 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beneil Dariush 0 22 of 46 47% 22 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Renato Moicano 1 22 of 42 52% 25 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
2 Beneil Dariush 0 8 of 14 57% 28 of 37 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:46
Renato Moicano 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Beneil Dariush 0 26 of 47 55% 27 of 48 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:07
Renato Moicano 0 8 of 17 47% 10 of 20 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beneil Dariush 56 of 107 52% 30 of 73 10 of 15 16 of 19 47 of 95 4 of 5 5 of 7
Renato Moicano 31 of 61 50% 25 of 52 4 of 6 2 of 3 25 of 54 4 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beneil Dariush 22 of 46 47% 9 of 28 3 of 6 10 of 12 22 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Renato Moicano 22 of 42 52% 16 of 33 4 of 6 2 of 3 16 of 35 4 of 5 2 of 2
2 Beneil Dariush 8 of 14 57% 8 of 13 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 7
Renato Moicano 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Beneil Dariush 26 of 47 55% 13 of 32 7 of 8 6 of 7 22 of 43 4 of 4 0 of 0
Renato Moicano 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Angelo picks Beneil Dariush because he believes Dariush's grappling and striking are a good matchup against Renato Moicano, who he thinks is too busy with outside commitments to be fully focused. He notes that Dariush is a BJJ world champion and a powerful striker, and he doesn't see Moicano out-grappling him. He also points out that Moicano's takedowns are not clean and he often clinches, while Dariush has shown incredible scrambles against top competition.

Angelo calls Dariush a 'phenomenal underdog' and implies value.
"I'm going to stick with what I did the first time, and that's pick Beneil Dariush. And I'm even more confident now."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Big Brady likes the stylistic matchup for Dariush, who has elite takedown defense and is the better striker with more power. However, he is worried about Dariush coming off back-to-back knockout losses, his age, and potential chin issues. He thinks Moicano doesn't have knockout power but could still hurt Dariush. Brady predicts Dariush will win by knockout, but he is not confident due to the layoff and durability concerns.

Dariush wins by second round knockout
"I'm going to go Benel Derush by knockout. I don't feel amazing about it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Connor picks Dariush but is not confident. He notes that Moicano has never knocked anyone out standing, so Dariush can survive on the feet. He believes Dariush's wrestling and grappling are superior, and that Moicano's confidence can waver when things go wrong. However, he acknowledges that Moicano's lightweight run has been unpredictable and that Dariush has been knocked out brutally before.

"I think he's going to beat Hanata Moikano. Moikano is just not that dangerous a striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

The host is surprised Moicano is the favorite, believing Dariush's durability and grappling defense will shut down Moicano's approach. He predicts Dariush will land big shots and finish inside the distance, likely by TKO or submission within two and a half rounds.

inside the distance, TKO or submission, within two and a half rounds
"I really like Darius to shut down the grappling game of Moano then land some big shots of his own to eventually put Moano out probably by TKO maybe club and sub but either way I think Darush gets it …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

The host picks Renato Moicano by decision, citing Dariush's long layoff and recent KO losses. He believes Moicano's grappling and striking have improved, and that he will start fast and set the tone. He expects a competitive fight but sees Moicano winning a 29-28 decision.

decision
"I'm taking Hanato Moano by decision here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Zane also picks Dariush but is hesitant. He agrees that Moicano is not a dangerous striker and that Dariush can likely outgrapple him. He notes that Dariush has fought and beaten good grapplers before. However, he acknowledges that Moicano's run has been strange and that he has a tendency to find ways to win even when losing.

"I think I'll take Daryu's too, but I do not feel confident."
LOSS vs Arman Tsarukyan
KO (knee and punches) R1 1:04 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Beneil Dariush 1 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Beneil Dariush 1 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Beneil Dariush 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 2 of 2 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Beneil Dariush 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 2 of 2 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tsarukyan (-278), Dariush (+225)

Round 1
Lightweights close the show in the five-round headliner, where Dariush (22-5-1, 16-5-1 UFC) sets his sights on Tsarukyan (20-3, 7-2 UFC) at 155 pounds. Tsarukyan has rattled off eight victories across his past nine outings.
For more on the American Top Team standout, see “Rivalries: Arman Tsarukyan” in Features
. Smith administers the law and order once the Octagon door closes. They touch gloves to get us started in the final bout of the night. Dariush fires an inside leg kick, eats a jab and then attacks the leg again.
Tsarukyan steps forward with a knee and follows it with a brutal right hook, dropping Dariush where he stands. He then dives in with punches and pounds Dariush unconscious. A signature victory for the young lightweight contender
.

The Official Result
Arman Tsarukyan def. Beneil Dariush—KO (Punches) 1:04 R1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing youth, cardio, and durability advantages. He notes Dariush has been finished in all five of his losses, and that Tsarukyan's relentless pace will break him down in the later rounds. He predicts a third-round TKO, as Tsarukyan's ground and pound and big shots will eventually finish Dariush.

third round TKO
"I see suruki going out there and getting a third round TKO in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody picks Tsarukyan but acknowledges Dariush's skills and path to victory. He notes Dariush's cardio, high ring IQ, and BJJ black belt, but thinks Tsarukyan's speed and youth are decisive. He mentions Tsarukyan's five-round experience and that he's only getting better. He doesn't love the money line but expects Tsarukyan to win, possibly by finish.

decision props considered but not bet
"I think darush is a lot a bigger like the it's a good plus money for sure and he's he he I think he's gonna give a better account of himself than that might dictate but it's not enough for …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Lucrative James picks Beneil Dariush, stating that the line is wide and disrespectful at +240. He believes Dariush can defend takedowns and scramble well, and is the better striker. He notes that Tsarukyan's youth and tenacity could be a factor in a five-round fight, but still sees Dariush as the side. He would go heavy on Dariush if it were a three-round fight.

"I definitely think benil darush is wied I think that darus is going to be able to defend the takedowns early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan has high-level wrestling and improving striking, and he is expected to control the fight with his grappling and striking advantage. However, Dariush is a live underdog with great scrambling and BJJ, making the fight closer than the odds suggest. Tsarukyan is predicted to win by decision over 3.5 rounds, but a small underdog shot on Dariush is also recommended due to value.

over 3.5 rounds, decision win predicted, half unit shot on Dariush mentioned
"prediction is suin but I am not touching that chalk darush is way more alive than plus 260 indicates"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul thinks Tsarukyan is the rightful favorite due to a sizable speed advantage and good enough grappling to avoid submissions. He notes the line is wide but doesn't see much value at -310. He mentions Tsarukyan's speed in striking and entrances/exits as the biggest difference. He is not lining up to bet it but picks Tsarukyan.

"I think arman's a rightful favorite not one that I'm lining up to uh to go bet this week but suian is the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan, believing his youth, wrestling, and striking will be too much for Beneil Dariush. He notes Tsarukyan's reach advantage and ability to win the leg kick battle. He predicts Tsarukyan will break Dariush down and win by TKO in the fourth round.

TKO in fourth round
"I'm going Arman Tsarukyan... I think he can pick at Dariush, annoy him, frustrate him, hurt him to the body and legs, break him down and I think he beats him by TKO in the fourth round."
TKO (punches) R1 4:10 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Oliveira 1 26 of 36 72% 37 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:31
Beneil Dariush 0 12 of 28 42% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Oliveira 1 26 of 36 72% 37 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:31
Beneil Dariush 0 12 of 28 42% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Oliveira 26 of 36 72% 23 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 1 7 of 13 3 of 3 16 of 20
Beneil Dariush 12 of 28 42% 8 of 24 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 14 0 of 0 6 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Oliveira 26 of 36 72% 23 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 1 7 of 13 3 of 3 16 of 20
Beneil Dariush 12 of 28 42% 8 of 24 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 14 0 of 0 6 of 14
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Oliveira vs. Beneil Dariush
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dariush (-140), Oliveira (+120)

Round 1
Hold onto your hats, because a fight many fans and observers circled on their calendars is about to happen. Former champ Oliveira (33-9, 1 NC; 21-9, 1 NC UFC), fresh off losing his belt to Islam Makhachev, is aiming to bounce back from that submission loss. Across from him is the surging Dariush (22-4-1, 16-4-1 UFC), who has strung eight impressive wins together to earn this potential no. 1 contender matchup. While unfortunately only scheduled for three rounds, the two top lightweights might not need that long. Referee Jason Herzog earns the honor of officiating this co-main attraction, and the combatants respectfully bump fists first. Oliveira reaches out with a front kick, and as he does, Dariush kicks his lead leg. Oliveira walks straight into the fire, throwing a head kick and shaking Dariush up, and the two trade furious strikes. The two wind up clashing together, chest to chest, and Oliveira looks to lift Dariush and dump him to the mat but ends up falling to his back. Dariush sits in the close guard and lands a few punches, and Oliveira actively pushes off the chest and uses upkicks. Oliveira attacks with hammerfists while Dariush is striking him from above, and the blows from Dariush are heavier. Oliveira pursues a leglock, and he hooks Dariush’ leg beneath his armpit. Dariush stands up, and he slips his foot out and meanders back into Oliveira’s guard. Dariush swings hard down at his opponent, and he punches the floor a few times with Oliveira swaying back and forth. Oliveira kicks off with upkicks again, and Dariush settles to return to the closed guard, smacking the Brazilian with hammerfists and punches. Dariush avoids any traps, but Oliveira bursts back to his feet and knees his man in the chest. Oliveira abandons the clinch and boots Dariush in the head. Dariush is stung from that and a subsequent left hand, and he knocks Dariush to his knees with a clubbing right hand behind the ear. Dariush drops to go after a takedown, and when that fails, he rolls with desperation with for some kind of leglock. “Do Bronx” pushes right past it and slams his fists down on Dariush again and again. Dariush tries to turn to his side, but his bell is rung and Oliveira is not about to let him off the hook. The punches continue to mount for the Brazilian, who will not stop until Herzog pulls him off. As he keeps beating down the Kings MMA fighter, Herzog has no choice but to wave the fight off. The former champ peels off to jump atop the cage and soak it in as the deafening crowd showers him with cheers and affection. Oliveira climbs back down to embrace his fallen foe, and then he leaps out of the cage to go hug someone in the crowd. This is a statement performance for Oliveira, who claims his 20th finish as a UFC fighter, which adds to his own record. Lightweights will not likely going to line up wanting to face him next, and he has just one goal in mind: he wants his belt back, calling out Islam Makhachev and offering to the UFC brass that he will fight Makhachev on his home soil.

The Official Result
Charles Oliveira def. Beneil Dariush R1 4:10 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Angelo picks Beneil Dariush, having placed 1.5 units on him at -125. He argues that Dariush is the better wrestler and grappler, and that his no-gi BJJ world championship credentials give him an edge. He believes Dariush can avoid Charles Oliveira's submission threats by staying controlled and not creating scrambles. He thinks Dariush's power and wrestling will be key.

Bet: 1.5 units on Beneil Dariush moneyline at -125
"I have one and a half units on him at minus 125"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Big Brady picks Beneil Dariush to finish Charles Oliveira in the first round. He notes that Dariush has the wrestling to dictate where the fight goes and has heavy hands. Oliveira is hittable and has been dropped in recent fights. Dariush's power and grappling should overwhelm Oliveira early. He predicts a knockdown followed by a submission or TKO.

first round finish
"I'll take Darius should go out there I think he knocks down Charles Oliveira um gets on top and and Subs them I think a tko's in play but I think he does finish Charles Oliveira and I think it's …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Cody picks Beneil Dariush despite being a fan of Oliveira. He argues that Dariush is a thinking man's fighter with high ring IQ, underrated power, and a nasty liver kick. He notes that Oliveira's reckless approach and durability issues (gets knocked down often) play into Dariush's precision. He also believes Dariush's wrestling and BJJ are good enough to grapple with Oliveira, and he can win standing or on the ground. He expects the fight to end inside the distance.

Fight ends inside distance
"I just feel like he's got a whole lot of ways to win this fight probably inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Connor picks Dariush confidently, citing his superior grappling and pressure. He believes Dariush can out-grapple Oliveira and that Oliveira's submission threat is overrated. He notes that Dariush is willing to grapple and has the skills to neutralize Oliveira's guard. However, he acknowledges the risk of Oliveira's power and chaos.

Oliveira opened at +115, currently +123; Dariush opened at -127, currently -136.
"I'm going to pick Beniel Darjesh here as confidently as I think I possibly could."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush in a coin-toss fight, citing momentum and Dariush's time to get a title shot. He notes that Dariush has paid his dues and is on a win streak, while Oliveira has been dropped in his last three fights. He believes Dariush will not be afraid to follow Oliveira to the ground, unlike previous opponents, and that Dariush's calm, pressure-based Jiu-Jitsu can neutralize Oliveira's non-stop attacking style. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's offensive potency and the possibility of Dariush getting hurt.

"the reason I'm picking banil is because the momentum's on his side I think right now simply his time"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Beneil Dariush

James picks Beneil Dariush, believing Oliveira's time at the top is done. He thinks Dariush's distance control with his left kick and technical striking can make Oliveira look amateur on the feet, similar to how Islam Makhachev did. He also believes Dariush can get takedowns and has elite jiu-jitsu to avoid submissions. However, he notes Dariush's chin is vulnerable and he could be dragged into a brawl, where Oliveira has an edge. James sees Dariush winning by decision or submission, and considers the moneyline value good.

Beneil Dariush by submission at +450 (not played)
"I think Charles oliviera's time in the sunshine is done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Dariush has a well-rounded game with improved striking and excellent defensive grappling. Oliveira is dangerous everywhere but has shown vulnerability to pressure and wrestling. Dariush's ability to stuff takedowns and land on the feet should lead to a finish, likely by KO. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play given both fighters' finishing rates.

Under 2.5 rounds (-165), Dariush wins by KO
"I think it's going to be bonill der Rouge getting his hand raised"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Paul leans toward Dariush, citing his technical striking and smart approach. He thinks Oliveira could do crazy things early, but once Dariush susses out the situation, he will take over and find his advantage. Paul is not betting this fight but is interested in a PrizePicks play on under 1.5 takedowns for Dariush, reasoning that Dariush may not want to go to the ground with Oliveira.

Under 1.5 takedowns for Dariush on PrizePicks
"I do side with you and I ever so slightly leaned towards baniel Darius just on the fact that I think he's got a little bit more technical solid technical striking"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush over Charles Oliveira, despite wanting Oliveira to win. He notes Dariush's consistent recent performances, great takedown defense, and improving hands. He worries about Oliveira's tendency to get dropped and his injury layoff. He believes Dariush can control where the fight goes and may finish or win a decision.

"I'm gonna go with banil Darius over Charles Oliveira as much as I love Charles Oliveira I'm worried for him in this matchup"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Zane also picks Dariush, emphasizing that if Dariush can scramble with Oliveira on the ground, he can win. He notes that Dariush's defensive wrestling and scrambling were impressive against Gamrot and Ferreira. He acknowledges the danger of Oliveira's striking but believes Dariush's grappling advantage is key.

"I guess I'll go Darjush. The biggest thing just being that if he can really just scramble like crazy with Olivera on the ground, I think he can get this fight into a place where he's more fit to win …"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29-28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beneil Dariush 1 59 of 130 45% 67 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Mateusz Gamrot 0 33 of 81 40% 38 of 86 4 of 19 21% 0 0 2:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beneil Dariush 0 9 of 26 34% 13 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Mateusz Gamrot 0 9 of 13 69% 13 of 17 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:22
2 Beneil Dariush 0 31 of 67 46% 32 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Mateusz Gamrot 0 15 of 47 31% 15 of 47 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:10
3 Beneil Dariush 1 19 of 37 51% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Mateusz Gamrot 0 9 of 21 42% 10 of 22 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beneil Dariush 59 of 130 45% 35 of 100 15 of 21 9 of 9 52 of 121 2 of 3 5 of 6
Mateusz Gamrot 33 of 81 40% 22 of 67 9 of 12 2 of 2 29 of 76 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beneil Dariush 9 of 26 34% 2 of 16 4 of 7 3 of 3 7 of 23 1 of 2 1 of 1
Mateusz Gamrot 9 of 13 69% 8 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 9 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Beneil Dariush 31 of 67 46% 19 of 53 8 of 10 4 of 4 27 of 62 0 of 0 4 of 5
Mateusz Gamrot 15 of 47 31% 9 of 40 4 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Beneil Dariush 19 of 37 51% 14 of 31 3 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 9 of 21 42% 5 of 16 4 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gamrot (-195), Dariush (+165)

Round 1
Like every other main card tilt, this lightweight affair pitting Dariush (21-4-1, 15-4-1 UFC) against Gamrot (21-1, 1 NC; 4-1 UFC) has nearly immediate championship implications, as the victor could very likely be next in line for the winner of the headliner a few fights from now. Before they can look ahead, they have to get past the other, and they will do so under the watchful eye of referee Dan Movahedi. The two bump fists, and after a few seconds to find their feet in the cage, Dariush slings a pair of quick kicks. Dariush rushes forward with a high kick, and Gamrot attacks for a takedown. A furious scramble ensues, and Gamrot lowers Dariush down but finds himself in leglock danger. Dariush attempts to sweep with this, but the two end up back on their feet. Gamrot pushes him to the wall, but he releases his foe and they reset. The right ear of Gamrot is split, and it starts to bleed, but he pays it no mind. Dariush attacks with a few low kicks, and Gamrot catches a body kick that follows and dumps Dariush to the mat. Dariush pursues a leglock as soon as they hit the ground, and he considers a heel hook but is on the wrong side without the right leverage to lock it down. “Gamer” pulls his leg out and stands up, and Dariush follows him. Gamrot stays tightly pressed to his opponent, before releasing him and backing off. An odd takedown entry allows Gamrot to get his hands on Dariush and drag the fight down, but Dariush defends with an awkward position to stop it. Dariush implores the referee to break them up, so Gamrot answers this by taking Dariush’s legs out beneath him. The Polish fighter cannot keep Dariush down, so he backs off and lets Dariush kick him in the side. On the kick, Gamrot grabs it, and he gives a shove but cannot ground Dariush this time. They trade kicks, and Gamrot slips on the way out before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot

Round 2
Sherdog encountered some technical difficulties at the beginning of this round, and we apologize for the inconvenience. We resume the action at the beginning of Round 2. The lightweights touch ‘em up, and Gamrot leans forward into a punch and has a strange reaction to it, but it could have been from a possible takedown setup. Gamrot resets and crashes forward for an authentic try, and Dariush tosses him aside and lets Gamrot get his footing again. Dariush kicks the body and gets punched in the head for his effort, and Gamrot counters another kick with an overhand right. Dariush pushes a jab out, and he sets up a high kick that glances off the shoulder. The lightweights clash legs at the same time, and Dariush walks forward to engage only to get sniped with a jab. Gamrot dives down to the ankle to take the fight down, and Dariush pulls his leg away and backs away. Dariush intercepts his opponent with a stern knee, and he targets the body with his shin as his legs continue to be his best weapon. A Gamrot takedown is stuffed, and Dariush makes him pay by chopping at his lead leg. The single strikes come back and forth, and Gamrot darts forward to throw a few in a bundle, but Dariush slips and rips with a left hand. The former KSW champ slowly moves forward without pulling the trigger, and he is forced to block a high kick that rolls off his shoulder. Dariush scoops up an uppercut and gets backed off with an overhand right, and Gamrot blitzes him with a knee. Gamrot sprints at his foe for one final takedown, and the scramble that ensues ends the round with both men on their seats.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dariush

Round 3
The top lightweights meet in the middle and offer half-hearted gloved touch that is more of a jab, and Gamrot claims the center of the cage. Gamrot punches his way into a takedown entry, but the veteran savvy of Dariush smoothly flows with the attempt and forces Gamrot to release his grip and stand back up. Dariush lets him have it with a flush kick to the body, and he lets go with a subsequent pair of kicks to the upper thigh. As Gamrot replies with a head kick try, Dariush pops him with a right hook. Gamrot comes up short with another high kick, and Dariush sees his strikes coming and is seemingly one step ahead of the offense. Dariush lifts up a knee that bounces off the midsection when Gamrot strides forward, and Gamrot continues to give chase no matter what he absorbs. The crowd appears distracted with the drama outside the cage, and they rain down a shower of boos not targeting the fighters but at that individual or individuals. As they are paying attention to something out of the cage, Gamrot leaps forward to snatch up Dariush’s lead leg and look for a takedown, but the attempt fails and Dariush gains his balance and hops away. Gamrot loops a right hand over the top, but it is one-and-done when Dariush backpedals. Dariush prepares a left-hand counter for when Gamrot walks into his range, and he times a spectacular blow that knocks Gamrot clean off his feet. The recoverability of Gamrot is solid, as he somersaults back and gets right back into action following the flash knockdown. Gamrot punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Dariush smoothly follows him all the way through to get to his knees and back up without spending much time on his back. The fight comes to an end with one final exchange of alternating punches, and the lightweights hug it out after the bell sounds. It remains to be seen if the victor here has done enough to earn a crack at the triumphant man of the main event, a shot which also hinges on the result of that match itself.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)

The Official Result
Beneil Dariush def. Mateusz Gamrot via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot confidently, stating he is better everywhere than Dariush. He highlights Gamrot's wrestling, power, cardio, and pace, and notes that Dariush has been waiting for a title shot while Gamrot has been active. He has 2 units on Gamrot at -185 and expects the line to move.

"gamrod's a clear pick his minus 185 odds right now are solid those are definitely going to move I got two units on that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Gamrot to win by knockout in the second round. He questions Dariush's chin (three knockout losses) and believes Gamrot's volume and deceptive power will catch him. He expects the fight to play out mostly on the feet, with Gamrot dictating the range. He notes Dariush's striking is underrated but trusts Gamrot to land a finishing shot.

second round knockout
"I think gamra knocks him out and uh moves up these rankings so I like gamrod here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Cody thinks Gamrot is the pick, noting his wrestling pedigree and takedown defense. He believes Gamrot's pressure and pace will be key, and that Dariush may struggle with cardio. Cody acknowledges Dariush is a live underdog but feels Gamrot is getting more comfortable and should put on a clean performance. He is not super high on Gamrot this week because Dariush could spoil.

"the pick is gamma and I'm gonna ride with him"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor picks Gamrot, citing his incredible pace and cardio, which he believes will wear down Dariush over three rounds. He notes that Dariush often gasses after going berserk, and Gamrot's ability to keep up high-intensity scrambles will exploit that. However, he acknowledges that Dariush could win early if he lands a big shot or imposes his grappling.

"I'm gonna take Gamrot because he's got an incredible pace... he has a way of sort of sucking some of the life out of the fight on the feet."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mateusz Gamrot. He praises Gamrot's unorthodox low single leg takedown and relentless pressure, noting he attempted 21 takedowns against Arman Tsarukyan. Levi is concerned about Dariush's recent broken ankle and whether he will be fully recovered. He thinks Dariush has the better striking, especially body kicks, but worries that Gamrot's wrestling and scrambling could overwhelm Dariush over three rounds. Levi does not bet this fight.

"I'm gonna slightly lean towards gamroth though but I mean I can't blame someone for taking a plus 165 on their use."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot has shown he can grapple with high-level fighters like Arman Tsarukyan. Dariush's reckless style may leave him open to counters. Gamrot is the cleaner striker and has cardio advantage. The under 2.5 at +160 or Gamrot inside the distance at +250 are intriguing. A one-unit shot on the under is the play.

Under 2.5 rounds at +160; Gamrot inside the distance at +250; Gamrot by KO at +500
"the under two and a half at plus 160 which is the last line I saw that has my Intrigue but even uh gamrod inside the distance at plus 250 I think is a great line as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul is torn but leans Gamrot, citing that wrestling may be negated in the big cage and that Gamrot has speed and grappling advantages. He mentions Dariush's chin issues from the past and that Gamrot's power could be a factor. Paul is not sure about betting but picks Gamrot.

"gamrat's the pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot over Beneil Dariush. He questions the quality of Dariush's wins (e.g., Ferguson) and notes Dariush's long layoff due to a broken leg. He believes Gamrot's youth, momentum, and grappling will overwhelm Dariush, predicting a decision win with some dangerous moments.

"I'm going with Matteo Shamrock now"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Zane picks Dariush, arguing that Dariush's well-rounded game and ability to control the fight early will give him an edge. He notes that Dariush is a hell of a grappler and can match Gamrot's wrestling, and that Gamrot's takedowns don't lead to control. He admits it's a close fight and that Dariush's tendency to get hurt is a concern, but he thinks Dariush can win a decision or finish.

"I'll take the flyer on Dariush. I think Dariush is gonna probably have a really good round one."
WIN vs Tony Ferguson
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beneil Dariush 0 15 of 34 44% 37 of 59 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:05
Tony Ferguson 0 23 of 55 41% 76 of 142 3 of 6 50% 1 1 12:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beneil Dariush 0 7 of 18 38% 13 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 10 of 28 35% 32 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:40
2 Beneil Dariush 0 2 of 4 50% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:05
Tony Ferguson 0 6 of 14 42% 26 of 41 1 of 2 50% 1 1 4:04
3 Beneil Dariush 0 6 of 12 50% 13 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 7 of 13 53% 18 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beneil Dariush 15 of 34 44% 10 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 23 1 of 1 8 of 10
Tony Ferguson 23 of 55 41% 16 of 48 3 of 3 4 of 4 15 of 44 1 of 1 7 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beneil Dariush 7 of 18 38% 6 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 13 1 of 1 4 of 4
Tony Ferguson 10 of 28 35% 6 of 24 1 of 1 3 of 3 9 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Beneil Dariush 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Tony Ferguson 6 of 14 42% 5 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 8
3 Beneil Dariush 6 of 12 50% 3 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 5
Tony Ferguson 7 of 13 53% 5 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tony Ferguson vs. Beneil Dariush

Round 1
Up next is the long-awaited co-main event, which sees Ferguson (25-5, 15-3 UFC) try to snap the first losing streak of his career against the surging Dariush (20-4-1, 14-4-1 UFC). Hold on to your hats, this one is about to get crazy. Referee Mike Beltran clocks them in and they do not touch gloves, preferring to let their hands settle things instead. Ferguson stutter-steps forward into a left hand, but he is no worse for wear from it. Dariush kicks across Ferguson’s leg to his surprise, and he darts in with a left hook that falls short. Dariush charges in to attack, and Ferguson eats a few shots but is slick and moving everywhere to avoid the shots. Dariush scores another unusual leg kick to Ferguson’s rear leg, and Dariush is ready to brawl and throws hands to catch Ferguson off-guard. Dariush presses forward, and he hits a body lock takedown to plant Ferguson on his back. Ferguson kicks him off, scores an upkick, and pulls a high rubber guard when Dariush climbs back down. Dariush ignores it and pushes through to land a few punches to the body, but “El Cucuy” is holding him tight and elbowing him on the side of the head a few times. Ferguson looks to set up a triangle choke, but when that fails, he recovers his guard. Dariush sits up to start nailing Ferguson with punches and elbows, and Ferguson takes them on the chin all while continuing to hack back with elbows. Ferguson rolls over to nearly sweep Dariush, but he is pushed back over and finds himself surrendering half guard. Dariush steps over to set up an arm-triangle choke, and Ferguson looks to roll through and attack with an armbar as he pushes off the fence. Dariush sees it coming and flows with him, where he slides into Ferguson’s butterfly guard. The Kings MMA fighter resecures half guard, and he steps over to the other side to land some ground-and-pound. When Dariush looks to congratulate him for the round, Ferguson pushes him away to go back to his corner.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush

Round 2
The second round begins with Ferguson taking the center of the cage, and Dariush kicks his lead leg. Ferguson falls down Dariush looks to take him down. Instead of succumbing to a bad position, Ferguson attacks a brabo choke from his back against the wall. Dariush stays patient and unconcerned with the submission until Ferguson bails on it, where he looks to pull Ferguson’s legs out from beneath him. Dariush pulls him off the fence to put Ferguson flat on his back, and Dariush in full guard starts slugging away at Ferguson. Dariush ignores Ferguson’s flailing on his back to smash his fists on Ferguson’s head, and elbows and punches land until Ferguson tries to push him away. Dariush stays committed to keeping Ferguson grounded, and Ferguson attacks with a submission to get Dariush to back off. Ferguson sweeps Dariush in a wild scramble, and Dariush pulls him back down to attack a heel hook. Ferguson is in serious agony, and he grimaces but does not yell out and instead kicks Dariush in the chest to break the grip. As Dariush loosens the grip, he climbs over on top. Dariush steps into half guard, where he threatens with an arm-triangle choke but is more intent on smothering Ferguson’s face with his chest. Ferguson elbows him a few times, but Dariush does not care as he stays pressed heavy to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush

Round 3
Ferguson’s leg is severely compromised from the heel hook, and he tries to use his tricky movement but does not have his wheels about him. Dariush walks through any strikes to grab hold of Ferguson, and “El Cucuy” latches on to a guillotine choke. Dariush lifts him up and slams him down, where he breaks the grip and gains an advantageous position. The two end up in a north-south position as Ferguson kicks off the fence, but Dariush expertly traverses the guard to try to get side control. The crowd chants “stand them up,” and these chants echo through the Toyota Center, Beltran asks the fighters to keep moving. Dariush pulls on his adversary to try to get Ferguson’s legs away from the cage, and the two are in a grappling stalemate with no strikes thrown of any kind. Dariush grinds his elbow on Ferguson’s chin, and Ferguson holds on tight but is not doing anything of note either. This odd north-south posture continues as fans grow more restless, and Dariush hops over to side control. Ferguson looks to set up an arm-triangle choke from his back like Maurice Greene pulled off on Gian Villante, but Dariush breaks the grip and hops over on top. Ferguson rolls through and the two get back to their north-south with Ferguson’s feet on the cage, and Dariush spins through to try to land strikes. Ferguson closes his guard and Dariush lands a few short punches to the body. Dariush finishes the fight with a few punches from above, and Ferguson answers with elbows to end this disappointing yet one-sided lightweight clash.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)

The Official Result
Beneil Dariush def. Tony Ferguson via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Ferguson has taken massive damage and looks diminished. Dariush is a BJJ black belt with good striking and takedowns. He can implement a similar game plan to Oliveira: take Ferguson down and control him. Ferguson is tough to finish, so I expect a decision win for Dariush.

"I'll take minil daryush i'm gonna say he wins by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Cody also picks Dariush, emphasizing Ferguson's decline and poor game plans. He notes that Ferguson's wins are aging and he hasn't knocked anyone out in years. Cody believes Dariush is a thinking man's fighter who will use takedowns and top control to win. He points out that Ferguson's takedown defense is weak and his submission game is not a threat from the bottom. Cody expects Dariush to win the first round and then secure a decision.

Live betting: back Ferguson after the first round if he drops it. Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes.
"i'm going to go with daniel daryush and uh neil darius by decision due to the takedowns that'll be the difference"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush, emphasizing Ferguson's decline since his knee injury and the Gaethje fight. He notes Dariush's six-fight win streak, knockout power, and jiu-jitsu credentials, and believes Dariush can mix takedowns and avoid submissions. Levi is concerned about Dariush's tendency to leave openings and gas, but thinks Ferguson's durability and chin have diminished. He expects Dariush to dominate and win via decision or late stoppage.

mentions Dariush's chin and gas tank as concerns, but still picks him
"i'm going to go with neil daryus to get this one done here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

The host picks Dariush but is not confident, noting Ferguson's chaotic style could cause problems. He thinks Dariush should have a grappling advantage and grind out a decision, but worries about Ferguson's ability to create volatility. He says he is not running to the betting window on Dariush.

Dariush by decision
"ultimately i will go with neil i'll go with him to win this fight and grind this fight out by decision but i'm not right right run into the to the betting window to bed darry you share"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Paul picks Dariush, citing Ferguson's decline. He notes that Ferguson has lost to elite guys and looked abysmal in his last two fights. Paul believes Dariush's wrestling and game planning will be key, as he can take Ferguson down and neutralize him, similar to what Oliveira did. He mentions that Ferguson's takedown defense is poor and his submission game is not a threat from the bottom. Paul expects Dariush to win by decision, using takedowns to control the fight.

Live betting opportunity: back Ferguson after the first round if he drops it. Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (48.5 for Dariush, 38.5 for Ferguson).
"i'm going to go with daniel daryush and uh neil darius by decision due to the takedowns that'll be the difference"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's age and recent decline. He notes that Ferguson's wins are aging poorly and that Dariush thrives under chaos, which is key against Ferguson. He predicts Dariush will control the fight with grappling and win a unanimous decision 29-28.

"i'm going with benildaryushman"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beneil Dariush 0 54 of 121 44% 74 of 145 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:58
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 62 of 116 53% 74 of 132 5 of 15 33% 0 0 7:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beneil Dariush 0 21 of 39 53% 24 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 29 of 51 56% 32 of 54 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:06
2 Beneil Dariush 0 14 of 24 58% 30 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 10 of 22 45% 18 of 34 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:37
3 Beneil Dariush 0 19 of 58 32% 20 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:36
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 23 of 43 53% 24 of 44 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beneil Dariush 54 of 121 44% 43 of 104 10 of 15 1 of 2 45 of 109 5 of 5 4 of 7
Carlos Diego Ferreira 62 of 116 53% 46 of 98 10 of 12 6 of 6 51 of 93 3 of 5 8 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beneil Dariush 21 of 39 53% 17 of 32 4 of 6 0 of 1 19 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Diego Ferreira 29 of 51 56% 24 of 46 3 of 3 2 of 2 22 of 38 0 of 2 7 of 11
2 Beneil Dariush 14 of 24 58% 10 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 19 3 of 3 1 of 2
Carlos Diego Ferreira 10 of 22 45% 7 of 17 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 12 3 of 3 1 of 7
3 Beneil Dariush 19 of 58 32% 16 of 52 2 of 5 1 of 1 16 of 53 0 of 0 3 of 5
Carlos Diego Ferreira 23 of 43 53% 15 of 35 6 of 6 2 of 2 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Big Brady slightly edges Carlos Diego Ferreira, citing his durability and output advantage. He notes that Dariush has been knocked out three times and Ferreira is not a knockout artist, but Ferreira's volume could be key. He expects a very close decision and admits it's a coin-flip fight.

"I'm going to slightly edge Ferreira to get it done, I'm going to say by a very close decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush, noting his wrestling and top control advantage. He acknowledges Ferreira's improved boxing and footwork, but believes Dariush's grappling and ability to avoid submissions will be key. He mentions Dariush's past win over Ferreira and his experience against high-level grapplers.

"i'm gonna go with benil here via decision i think he can mix in takedowns avoid the submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Ferreira has transformed his game since joining Fortis MMA, showing improved striking, pace, and pressure. He averages 283 strikes thrown per fight and has great cardio. His takedown defense has improved, and he gets back to his feet quickly. Dariush has been in firefights recently and may struggle with Ferreira's constant forward pressure. Ferreira's durability and chin are solid. I expect Ferreira to push the pace, outwork Dariush, and win a decision. The line is fair and Ferreira is the better fighter now.

Ferreira by decision
"i like diego feje here i like him roughly around that even money we got minus -125 i think that's a solid line too"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush in a close fight, noting the odds should be 50-50. He praises Dariush's youth, activity, and improving stand-up, citing his performance against Edson Barboza. He questions Ferreira's wins over aging opponents and thinks Dariush's grappling will keep him safe. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.

unanimous decision 29-28
"i'm gonna go with benildarius i feel like okay and that is very on the spot because this is a very even bout"
Jim Miller - Fight History
WIN vs Jared Gordon
Submission R1 3:29 · UFC 328 ·
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 9 of 17 52% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 9 of 17 52% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 9 of 17 52% 5 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 9 of 17 52% 5 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-325), Miller (+260)

Round 1
It’s Jim Miller (38-19, 1 NC; 27-18, 1 NC UFC) fight day, the first one of these this year. Coming up on 43 years of age, the New Jersey native still has a ways to go to reach 50 UFC bouts. He can get to 47 tonight once the cage doors close and referee Keith Peterson says go, when he battles Gordon (21-8, 1 NC; 9-7, 1 NC UFC). This lightweight clash kicks off with no nonsense and no fist bump either.
Miller stalks Gordon down slowly and cautiously, keeping his gloves up to defend a high kick. Miller leaps forward and catches Gordon with a shovel uppercut. Gordon has to take a quick count of his teeth and absorbs a knee from up close. Miller breaks off and takes a body kick. Miller throws a low kick that bangs into Gordon’s cup, and Gordon tries to take him down and abandons it to adjust his groin. Peterson calls time and gives Gordon as much time as he needs to recover. After 80 seconds, Gordon is good to go, and Miller apologizes for the accidental foul. Gordon strikes first with a high kick that harmlessly bangs into the guard, and Miller crowds him behind a pair of hooks. Miller kicks the side again and is driven back with a right hand.
Gordon jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and he catches a Miller body kick to shoot for a takedown.
This reckless shot is just traveling down the road to perdition for Gordon, as Miller snatches up a guillotine choke and cinches both legs around the waist, gripping the submission with everything he has. Miller rolls Gordon to the side, squeezing with his self-describes "old man strength." Miller arches his back and has Gordon dead to rights. Gordon surrenders so he does not go out on his shield, and the victorious Miller leaps atop the cage to let loose a roar of victory.
In less than four minutes, the OG Miller has notched his 28th victory in the Octagon, extending his own record. He has now finished 20 opponents as a UFC fighter, one shy of organizational leader Charles Oliveira. In victory, Miller gives it up to his son for beating cancer, declaring that anything he does in combat pales in comparison to what his offspring went through.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Jared Gordon R1 3:29 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon, stating his hands are better and his takedown defense should be good enough. He dismisses Gordon's last loss due to being hit by a car. He notes Gordon is a touch younger and faster. However, he thinks the 3-to-1 odds are crazy and will not bet on it. He acknowledges Jim Miller's home advantage and toughness.

Angelo says he is not spending on the 3-to-1 odds.
"I'm gonna pick Jared Gordon here because I do think his hands are better and I think the takedown defense should be good enough to defend some of these Jim Miller takedowns. But 3 to 1 money is crazy. I'm …"
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon but is not fully confident. He notes that Jim Miller is tough and experienced, and that the age difference might only be half a second faster. He thinks the fight is competitive and that Jim Miller plus 3.5 is not the worst bet. He mentions that Jim Miller has been finished in all his losses in New Jersey.

over round line lean
"I am picking Jared Gordon here. But the idea that Jim Miller can't hang on the feet seems something that you can dismiss."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, assuming he wasn't hit by a car before this fight. He notes Gordon fights at a high level and should be the minute winner everywhere. Brady expects Gordon to win by decision, though he acknowledges Jim Miller has power and a guillotine. He is rooting for Miller but thinks Gordon gets it done on the scorecards.

"I'm going to take Jared Gordon to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon, citing his youth and well-rounded skills. He thinks Gordon's striking and grappling are a step ahead of Miller, who is older and less active. Cody expects Gordon to win by decision.

"I'm picking Jared Gordon. Despite the fact that I want Jim Miller to win."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Connor also picks Gordon, focusing on directionality: Gordon has a clear process of pressuring and putting out volume, while Miller never has. Connor notes that Miller has no ability to be the one pressuring and will just accept the fight Gordon wants. He adds that Gordon is a little too fast and put together with his hands for Miller to take him out of his game.

Miller opened at +210, now +250; Gordon opened at -250, now -300.
"I think I will because he is going to understand how to kind of tell the story of the fight to dictate in a way that Jim Miller never has been able to."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Daniel picks Gordon, predicting a 29-28 decision where Miller wins the first round but Gordon edges out the last two with top control. He respects Miller's legacy but sees Gordon's youth and grappling as decisive.

"I'm also going Gordon. I'm gonna go 2928 decision. I think Miller wins the first round. Gordon kind of edges out the last two with top control."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Jared Gordon

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 3. Gordon is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (5.64 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to the 41-year-old Miller. Miller's takedown defense (48%) is a liability, and Gordon has solid takedown defense (60%) to keep the fight standing. Gordon's recent KO win over Thiago Moises shows his power, while Miller has been knocked out multiple times. Gordon's pace and pressure should overwhelm Miller, leading to a late stoppage or clear decision.

Gordon by KO/TKO +400
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Jacob picks Jared Gordon but is not betting on him out of respect for Jim Miller, who has been dealing with his son's cancer. He thinks Gordon should win but sees weird paths to victory for Miller. He might play Jim Miller in some capacity on Saturday.

"I got to pick Jared Gordon as a pick because I mean he should just be the better fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The host picks Gordon, citing his pressure, pace, and power striking. He believes Gordon's grappling is good enough to keep Miller from grinding, and that Gordon's durability and cardio will allow him to dictate the fight. He expects a decision win, though he notes Miller's hometown crowd and power could pose a threat.

"I like Gordon here. I think he wins by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Paul picks Gordon, citing his technical striking and Miller's decline. He notes Miller's age and distractions, and thinks Gordon is simply better everywhere. Paul expects Gordon to win.

"Jared Gordon is just a kind of like one step advance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon but calls him a 'risky pick'. He notes Gordon's inconsistency but believes Jim Miller has lost his pop and recent performances have declined. He thinks Gordon should figure out the 55-year-old Miller and get a finish, though he initially says decision then corrects to finish.

by finish
"I'm going to go with Jared Gordon winning this one by decision. Um, by finish. Sorry."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Zane picks Gordon, citing his improved boxing and ability to dictate the fight with pressure and volume. He notes that Jim Miller lacks a clear process and is not a strategic thinker, while Gordon has a clear game plan. However, Zane acknowledges Miller's power and finishing ability, making Gordon vulnerable despite being the favorite.

Miller opened at +210, now +250; Gordon opened at -250, now -300. Should probably be closer than that.
"I am going to take Jared Gordon."
LOSS vs Chase Hooper
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 13 of 35 37% 22 of 45 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:39
Chase Hooper 0 21 of 44 47% 59 of 94 8 of 14 57% 1 0 10:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 10 of 16 62% 14 of 21 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:39
Chase Hooper 0 10 of 21 47% 24 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:57
2 Jim Miller 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Hooper 0 5 of 11 45% 10 of 19 5 of 8 62% 0 0 4:04
3 Jim Miller 0 2 of 7 28% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Hooper 0 6 of 12 50% 25 of 34 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 13 of 35 37% 11 of 30 1 of 2 1 of 3 7 of 28 1 of 2 5 of 5
Chase Hooper 21 of 44 47% 13 of 34 7 of 9 1 of 1 18 of 41 1 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 10 of 16 62% 10 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 5 of 5
Chase Hooper 10 of 21 47% 4 of 13 5 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 1 of 12 8% 0 of 9 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Jim Miller 2 of 7 28% 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chase Hooper vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hooper (-800), Miller (+550)

Round 1
While it is understandable, it is still unfortunate that announcer Bruce Buffer declined to shout out Miller’s (38-18, 1 NC; 27-17, 1 NC UFC) preferred nickname that was certainly not “A-10.” We get what we get, so “Expletive Deleted” will have to hold serve for now. The grizzled veteran, one whose name is all over the leaderboards including the most fights (soon to be 46) and the most victories (27 for now), will throw down with a man 16 years his junior. In a contest of old man strength vs. youthful exuberance, Hooper (15-3-1, 7-3 UFC) will represent the latter and will close as an astronomical betting favorite north of -800. Things like 41 and -800 are just numbers to Miller, who will meet Hooper in the center of the cage while referee Kerry Hatley watches on. They do not touch gloves. When Miller plods forward, Hooper backs away and uses his kicks to keep his preferred distance. Hooper suddenly attacks with a swarm of punches, and Miller sits in the pocket and fires back at him. Hooper gets the better of an exchange, and he slides back and clips Miller with a solid right hand. Miller is unfazed and cracks his foe with a left hook, and Hooper punches and shoots low for a single. Miller drops to a knee to defend it, and he wraps up a guillotine choke that forces Hooper to stand. Hooper drops to the floor to roll out of it, and Miller lowers himself down and blasts the youngster in the face with a standing-to-ground left hand. Hooper hunts for a triangle choke, and Miller punches his way out of it and reassumes top position in the guard. “A-10” stacks Hooper up to prevent Hooper from going after anything, and Miller latches on with a guillotine and jumps guard to secure it. Hooper calmly works his neck out of harm’s way, and he finds himself in top. Miller turns over and gives up his back, and Hooper is quick to start hunting for a standing rear-naked choke. Miller leans against the cage to take some of the weight off, and he tries to scrape “The Dream” off of him using the chain links. Hooper has the body triangle wrapped around the waist to remain on Miller’s back, and he hacks at Miller with an elbow. Hooper attempts a neck crank, and Miller bucks and twists to get Hooper off of his back. Hooper hits his back and instantly attacks an armbar, and Miller punches his way out of that and a subsequent triangle setup. Miller nails his man with a big left hand, and he pushes out of a quick triangle that materializes out of nowhere. Miller stands up, and Hooper follows him and pushes out a front kick. One more front kick from Hooper results in him getting caught with an overhand right, and the horn sounds to end the dramatic round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper

Round 2
Miller starts out the round ready to get in the pocket and exchange, and he scores a solid left hand to back Hooper off. When Hooper presses him, Miller tags him with another left. The youngster chains a front kick into a spinning back fist, and Miller defends against them and allows Hooper to take him down so he can grip hold of a two-on-one wrist lock. Hooper elbows him in the side while Miller clings to the limb, using it to work back to his feet. Hooper takes his back standing and wrenches him to the ground, where he flirts with a rear-naked choke to further control his foe. Miller works his way back to his feet and leans himself on the wire, and Hooper softens him up and is pulled off of Miller’s back, but he sells out for a takedown and lands in side control. After Hooper gets off some strikes, Miller fights to his feet, and he considers a guillotine when Hooper pursues a mat return. Miller lets it go and stands up, and Hooper kicks off the fencing and tosses Miller to his back. Hooper controls Miller from the side and then back, and the two scramble and roll to find themselves in an awkward situation. Hoop looks to lace Miller’s legs and spread them apart for a banana split, and he tugs on Miller’s foot to further hold on tight. Miller survives this and makes it to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper

Round 3
Hooper wants to take the fight down to begin the final round, with Miller wearing it after 10 minutes of combat. The control of Hooper starts to take over, as he latches on the elder statesman’s back and wrangles him to the floor. Hooper again pursues a leglock from a strange angle, and Miller’s knee is trapped in a precarious predicament. They remain stuck in a 50-50 of sorts, with a possible twister or other unorthodox submission coming together. Miller on his back, has his legs caught between Hooper’s, and his torso is about to turn the wrong direction until Hooper decides to abandon it and take top position. Hooper clings to the top position like Saran wrap, nullifying Miller and causing the audience to start booing. Hooper resides in half guard, smothering and hanging tight until posturing up with a few elbows to the side. Hooper sits up with seconds to go, and the fight that started with a roar ends with a whimper.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (29-28 Hooper)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (30-27 Hooper)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (30-27 Hooper)

The Official Result
Chase Hooper def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Chase Hooper

Daniel Levi notes that Chase Hooper handled a legend, securing eight takedowns and doing what he was supposed to do. He suggests moving Hooper up and even proposes a fight against Michael Chandler. He respects Jim Miller as a legend but acknowledges the loss.

"Chase Hooper went out there, handled a legend, you know, eight takedowns. Uh he didn't he didn't get to sub him, but you know, he went out there, did what he was supposed to do."
WIN vs Damon Jackson
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:44 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damon Jackson vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-170), Miller (+142)

Round 1
Two vets on the wrong end of 35 will be matched against one another as the prelims carry on. Miller (37-18, 1 NC; 26-17, 1 NC UFC) will be seeking to improve on his UFC-leading win tally, while Jackson (23-7-1, 1 NC; 6-5-1, 1 NC UFC) has regressed to the mean and is a loss away from a .500 record after two stints in the promotion. For as long as it lasts, this one should be a good one, and referee Keith Peterson is on top of the lightweight action as well as the nonsense. There is no glove touch that comes from the elder statesmen, as they want to go after it immediately. Jackson attacks first, connecting with a few power punches to introduce himself. Miller fires back with an overhand right, takes a right to the body and comes back with another clubbing punch. The two clash legs at the same time when kicking, and Miller dings Jackson with an uppercut when defending a single-leg takedown. Jackson pushes Miller to the wire, and chants for “Miller” drown out all other noise in the building. This energizes “A-10,” who breaks out of the clinch and stuffs another takedown to boot. Jackson punches his way into an exchange, and Miller cuts him when firing back. Miller further opens the cut on the eyebrow with a step-in elbow, and he swings a big right hand that is ducked and countered. Jackson tosses out a front kick, and Miller throws back with fire. Another front kick from Jackson gets in, and Miller pressures forward and whips a low kick that lands with a whump. Miller sits down with a left hand that makes both men take a step back, and he is prepared to defend against what comes next. Jackson dives after him, with an ill-advised naked takedown that is stopped in its tracks by a Miller guillotine choke.
Miller jumps guard to complete the submission, and as soon as Jackson hits the mat, he realizes the choke is so deep and so tight that he almost abandons ship immediately. Miller keeps squeezing for all his might, and Jackson decides against going out on his shield and surrenders.
It is the first time that Jackson has ever tapped in his long career, with his previous submission defeat of the technical variety that put him out. The ageless wonder does it again, submitting a man with incredible jiu-jitsu without taking much damage. The crowd goes wild, as the UFC’s all-time winningest fighters adds one more to the total. Miller tells commentator Joe Rogan that there is still tread left on the tires, and says he plans on making it to fight 50 in the UFC. On the other side of the equation—as there is the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat in almost every fight—Jackson removes his gloves and leaves them in the center of the Octagon, not wishing to speak to the crowd to give Miller his time to shine. Shine he did.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Damon Jackson R1 2:44 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson, citing Jackson's striking improvements and wrestling. He believes Jackson will hang in striking, get takedowns, and control on top without being in danger. He notes Jim Miller's age and that his black belt is outdated. He placed a half-unit bet on Jackson at -150.

Angelo bet half a unit on Damon Jackson at -150.
"I threw a half a unit on Damon Jackson at minus5"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady picks Jim Miller by knockout, citing Miller's power and durability versus Jackson's chinny nature. He notes that Jackson gets hurt in every fight and looks like a wounded deer on the feet, while Miller still has power that lasts. He also mentions the return to old gloves, which he believes favors knockouts. He predicts a second-round knockout, though he acknowledges Jackson's path via takedowns.

"I'll take Jim Miller to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody picks Damon Jackson, citing Miller's age (41) and recent decline. He notes Miller's only path is an early finish, while Jackson has better durability and cardio. Cody expects Jackson to win a competitive decision, possibly by outworking Miller in the later rounds.

"I'm actually gonna take Damon Jackson for this one"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller but with hesitation, noting that Jackson's game is 'chancey' and that Miller can still obliterate lower-level opponents. He points out that Jackson's wins are always scrappy and that Miller is a more reliable fighter. However, he acknowledges that Miller's stamina and directional issues could be exploited.

"I do not... I don't know. Damon jackson's game is it's just much more chancey than miller's. Yes. It's always been a thing like, you know, Jackson wins all the time. And so it's easy to we but i've talked …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland picks Damon Jackson via decision, expecting Miller to win the first round but fade. He notes Miller's history of fading after round one and Jackson's ability to grind out wins. He acknowledges Miller's early threat but believes Jackson can survive and take over in later rounds. He mentions Miller's recent loss to Bobby Green as evidence of his decline.

decision
"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson via decision here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Vreeland picks Miller as his dog, liking the plus money. He notes Miller is a durable veteran and that Jackson has lost three in a row. Vreeland expects Miller to win by decision, as Jackson is tough to finish.

Jim Miller wins by decision (+400)
"Jim Miller I like... better number too slightly plus 145"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions Vreeland's pick but does not state his own opinion.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Damon Jackson

The host gives Miller a slight striking advantage but believes the fight will be dictated in the grappling realm, where Jackson should utilize his size and strength more effectively to get controlling positions and grind out a decision win.

"I'd give Miller the slight advantage in the Striking I do think it will be dictated in the grappling real and that's where Jackson should be able to utilize this SI and strength a little bit more effectively getting those …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Damon Jackson, noting Miller is on his last legs and Jackson has good enough grappling to avoid being submitted. He expects Jackson to win a decision, possibly by outworking Miller. Paul is not betting the fight but leans Jackson.

"I won't be fading Jim Miller but I will be picking his opponent Damon Jackson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson, expecting him to grapple and grind out a decision. He believes Jackson will take Miller down and hold him there, wearing him out. He notes Jackson's size and grappling ability, and doubts Miller can finish early.

decision win
"Damon Jackson's GNA half guard Camp Jim Miller it's going to happen... I can so see him getting taken down and held down by Damon Jackson"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Zane picks Miller despite acknowledging his age and stamina issues. He notes that Miller is still dangerous on the feet and harder to hurt than Jackson, who is hittable and structurally unsound. Zane thinks Miller's power and durability give him an edge, but he is hesitant because Miller tends to fade late and can be out-wrestled.

Odds: Miller opened -145, now +154; Jackson opened +114, now -174. Zane says 'you don't want damon jackson any wider than that over anyone'.
"I'm kind of tempted to pick jim miller here. It is his home division. I think he might feel kind of stronger than damon jackson's uh issues, too."
LOSS vs King Green
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 30–25, 29–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 1 186 of 319 58% 187 of 320 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Jim Miller 0 57 of 144 39% 58 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 43 of 83 51% 43 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 King Green 0 61 of 115 53% 61 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 King Green 1 82 of 121 67% 83 of 122 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Jim Miller 0 20 of 45 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 186 of 319 58% 136 of 245 40 of 56 10 of 18 167 of 295 7 of 8 12 of 16
Jim Miller 57 of 144 39% 29 of 103 10 of 18 18 of 23 55 of 141 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 43 of 83 51% 26 of 57 12 of 19 5 of 7 43 of 82 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 17 of 46 36% 9 of 35 2 of 4 6 of 7 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 King Green 61 of 115 53% 45 of 88 13 of 19 3 of 8 60 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 20 of 53 37% 9 of 37 3 of 6 8 of 10 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 King Green 82 of 121 67% 65 of 100 15 of 18 2 of 3 64 of 99 6 of 6 12 of 16
Jim Miller 20 of 45 44% 11 of 31 5 of 8 4 of 6 18 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo leans Bobby Green based on skill set, noting Green's better striking and takedown defense. However, he is not confident due to Green's recent knockout losses and Miller's resurgence. He calls the -200 odds absurd and advises staying away from betting.

Odds comment: -200 is absurd for this fight
"I am going to lean Bobby green very very slightly minus 200 is absolutely absurd for this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Bobby Green, citing his superior footwork, volume, and jab. He notes that Jim Miller is slower and more flat-footed now, and no longer relies on wrestling. Green's takedown defense is solid, and Miller is unlikely to wrestle. Cody thinks the fight will resemble a sparring match where Green picks Miller apart with the jab. He warns that Miller is a fan favorite and the crowd could influence judges, but on paper, Green's style defeats Miller. Cody expects a decision win for Green.

"On paper Bobby green has a style to defeat him so the pick is Green."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Connor picks Green, arguing that Miller's game is not suited to track down a mobile striker like Green. He notes that Miller is best when he can plant his feet in the middle distance, but Green will keep moving and counter. Connor believes Green's ability to fire back with better offense will be the difference, though Miller's kicks could be troublesome.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I got to take green to just be able to have a competitive interesting fight, maybe eat a couple of shots that he lunges in and Miller is sitting and waiting on a counter."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Daniel Vreeland picks Bobby Green, citing his speed, volume, and higher level of competition. He believes Green's striking and cardio will outpace Miller, despite concerns about Green's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes Miller's momentum but trusts Green's technical edge.

"I'm gonna pick Bobby Green to get it done"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He calls it a feel-good fight and is excited because Jim Miller is fighting on UFC 100, 200, and 300. He says Bobby Green always brings hype and entertainment. No prediction is given.

"Jim Miller versus Bobby Green that's just a feel-good fight Jim Miller for UFC 100 UFC 200 and UFC 300 well is going to fight UFC 300 so I'm excited for that fight as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Green is the better technical striker and his defensive grappling is good enough to keep the fight upright. Miller might land some big shots early but Green will roll with them and put it on Miller in rounds two and three, winning on the scorecards.

decision
"I think for the most part green will roll with them well enough to take the brunt of it off and then really start to put it on Jim Miller through rounds two and three winning this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Paul agrees, noting that Green's footwork and jab should keep Miller at bay. He mentions that Green is coming off a bad knockout loss to Jalin Turner, but Miller doesn't have the power to replicate that. Paul thinks Miller's best chance is to land a right hand and get a takedown, but Green's takedown defense is good. He expects Green to win a decision, possibly a clear one.

"I like Bobby green too."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller to defeat Bobby Green by TKO in the second round. He predicts Miller will chop at Green's lead leg, find the chin after making Green hesitant, and notes Green's recent knockout loss to Jalin Turner may have affected him. He emphasizes Miller's momentum and ability to shoot takedowns.

"Jim Miller is going to destroy the lead leg of Bobby green he's going to hack it to Pieces."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green, believing his defensive awareness and skill will allow him to adjust as the fight goes on. He notes that Miller's meat-and-potatoes style is effective early but predictable, and Green's footwork and counters will take over. Zane acknowledges that Green has looked shaky recently but trusts his technical edge over Miller's plodding pressure.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I am going to pick Bobby Green because I think Jim Miller is so meat and potato potatoes that he is going to have all the success he's ever going to have in the fight in like the first six …"
Submission (face crank) R3 3:25 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 80 of 140 57% 96 of 157 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:55
Gabriel Benítez 0 80 of 182 43% 84 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 32 of 64 50% 33 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Gabriel Benítez 0 32 of 77 41% 32 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Jim Miller 0 28 of 38 73% 42 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:52
Gabriel Benítez 0 22 of 48 45% 26 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jim Miller 0 20 of 38 52% 21 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:46
Gabriel Benítez 0 26 of 57 45% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 80 of 140 57% 50 of 108 10 of 12 20 of 20 67 of 125 5 of 7 8 of 8
Gabriel Benítez 80 of 182 43% 51 of 145 13 of 21 16 of 16 79 of 181 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 32 of 64 50% 17 of 47 5 of 7 10 of 10 30 of 60 2 of 4 0 of 0
Gabriel Benítez 32 of 77 41% 18 of 56 7 of 14 7 of 7 31 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 28 of 38 73% 19 of 29 4 of 4 5 of 5 18 of 28 3 of 3 7 of 7
Gabriel Benítez 22 of 48 45% 17 of 42 2 of 3 3 of 3 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jim Miller 20 of 38 52% 14 of 32 1 of 1 5 of 5 19 of 37 0 of 0 1 of 1
Gabriel Benítez 26 of 57 45% 16 of 47 4 of 4 6 of 6 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Miller (-120), Benitez (+100)

Round 1
It’s Miller (36-17, 1 NC; 25-16, 1 NC UFC) time. The storied veteran takes on Benitez (23-10, 7-6 UFC) and already has his next date on the calendar circled: April 13. Before then, he has to get past the fiery “Moggly,” who should not just serve as a heavy bag. The co-main event will be covered by referee Dan Miragliotta. The lightweights have all the respect in the world for one another, they touch ‘em up before engaging, and there’s a bad moon on the rise. Miller parries a jab and takes a one-two on the chin, and he walks Benitez down. Benitez tries to back him off with a front kick, and he scores a low kick. Miller gives him one back immediately, and he scores three punches up top and a left to the body. Miller scores a low kick, and he aims a right to the body. Miller walks his foe down and unloads with punches, and Benitez is marked up already and defends with a knee. They trade leg kicks, with Miller throwing harder. Miller chops down the lead leg of his opponent, and Benitez drives a one-two down the pipe. Benitez gets off another one-two, and Miller pushes a front kick out of the way to make Benitez slip. Benitez jumps back up, and he swings heavy punches including a left hand that marks up Miller’s right eye. They connect with right hands at the same time, and Miller blitzes forward to back Benitez off. Miller blasts the body with two loud knees, and Benitez escapes on the outside and gets back to striking range. Miller follows him and swings, and he gets clipped with a left hand. Benitez scores a low kick, Miller fires it back and walks through a jab. Miller plods ahead with punches and an inside leg kick, and he gets one off on the other side. Benitez sticks out a few jabs, and Miller crowds him but does not land flush in an exchange. Miller keeps coming forward, getting off a left hand and a knee up the middle. Benitez ties him up, and Miller aims a body shot before the two split up. Benitez goes to the body, and Miller goes up top. Benitez flicks out a few jabs and gets backed off with a hefty low kick, and he reaches Miller with a long left. Miller loads up on a high kick, and Benitez springs into action with several punches and a body kick. Benitez tags his foe with a left hand, and Miller blinks it out and keeps his guard up to defend another one-two that soars at him at high speed. Miller leaps ahead with a right hook, and he gets met on the way in with a left hand and a low kick. Benitez gets off several jabs and a left hook follows the fourth, and Miller is on him with his own combination to end the spirited round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
The lightweights touch ‘em up to get started, and fists meet faces shortly thereafter. Benitez wades through a few punches and then backs off, but Miller is right on him and nails him with two leg kicks. Benitez connects with a clean left hand to shake Miller up, and he eats a few punches as Miller is right on him. Miller blasts him with a left hand, lands another, drives up a knee and pounds Benitez with another short left. Miller slashes out an elbow, and Benitez is no worse for wear as he backs away. Miller keeps the high pace and whips down low kicks that have welted up the Mexican’s legs. Benitez looks to get his jab going frequently, and the low kicks from Miller make Benitez lift his leg up preemptively to block them. They land powerful punches, and Miller strides forward confidently to nail Benitez with an elbow. Miller changes things up and hits an easy takedown, and Benitez turns to one side in an effort to set up an armbar. Miller sees it coming and shuts it down, and he stacks Benitez up and works the body. Miller continues to strike, and Benitez moves his legs up to set up a high guard to for a potential submission setup. Miller breaks out of it by connecting with two nasty elbows, and Benitez rolls frantically to grab hold of Miller’s arm and lock down an armbar. Miller moves the proper way through it and gets out of danger, and he again holds himself on top of Benitez and hammers him with standing-to-ground punches. As Benitez turns after absorbing a particularly heavy blow, Miller takes his back and secures a body triangle. Benitez hand-fights to prevent any rear-naked choke, and Miller uses one left to break the wrist lock so that he can isolate Benitez’ neck. Benitez survives to the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 3
The fighters clap hands together as the last round opens, and they are just as willing to slug it out as ever. They stand in the center of the Octagon and trade leather briefly, and Miller targets the busted lead leg of his foe with a kick. Benitez stands firm and throws punches, and he comes up short with a high kick. Miller punches high and kicks low in response, as his corner cheers the kick as if he were in a muay thai contest. Miller sneaks two left hands around the guard, and Benitez is tough as nails but his nose starts leaking. Miller lands a heavy leg kick, and when Benitez backs him off with a few punches, Miller comes back firing with a kick he turns his hip towards. Benitez walks forward to throw hard, and Miller’s eyes begin to close from swelling. Benitez continues to pepper him with punches and kicks, and Miller staggers him with a straight right hand. Miller wades forward without a care in the world, and Benitez’s volume is starting to frustrate his opponent. Miller connects with another vicious low kick, and he shoots for a double that lands him in half guard easily. Benitez looks to scramble, and he gives his back up.
Miller gets the body lock he was looking for, and he immediately starts pursuing the choke. Benitez turns to his side, but Miller has him locked down and fishing for rear-naked choke grip. Miller cranks down with his forearm on Benitez’ jaw, and he does not even bother to slide it under the chin before he starts squeezing. Knowing that he has no way out, Benitez surrenders to the face crank, and Miller has done it.
He adds to his record with the most victories in UFC history, and hardcore fans around the world are elated at the grizzled veteran getting it done by stoppage once more. Pleasing the crowd and commentator Michael Bisping, Miller proudly declares that he has his sights set on UFC 300 in April, with three names in mind: Paul Felder, Matt Brown and Brock Lesnar.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Gabriel Benitez R3 3:25 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Angelo picks Jim Miller but with low confidence due to his age (40). He notes Miller's late-career power and toughness, but acknowledges Gabriel Benítez is a dangerous striker with power. He thinks Miller's wrestling and grit could get the win, but won't bet on a 40-year-old.

"Jim Miller is going to be the pick I do think he wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady likes Jim Miller's recent form, noting he's been active and knocking people out. He questions Benítez's durability and inactivity, as Benítez has been knocked out multiple times and hasn't fought in over a year. Brady predicts Miller will knock out Benítez in the first round, possibly via a club-and-sub.

first round knockout
"I'm going to say Jim Miller knocks this guy out in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Cody picks Benítez, citing his solid takedown defense from training with elite wrestlers, his volume striking, and leg kicks that can immobilize Miller. He notes Miller's lack of volume and takedown attempts in recent fights, and believes Benítez can sprawl and keep the fight standing to win by volume.

"I'll take Gabriel bonitz"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Daniel Vreeland leans with Gabriel Benítez, citing his youth and durability. He expects a competitive first round, but if it goes past that, Benítez's kicks and knees will wear down Jim Miller. Vreeland acknowledges Miller's finishing ability but thinks Benítez's chin issues are mitigated by the fact that only heavy hitters have knocked him out.

"I'm gonna lean with the younger Mowgli Bonitz here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript. He only covers fights from the card he mentions, and Jim Miller vs Gabriel Benítez is not mentioned.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Gabriel Benítez is a technical striker with a strong kicking game, especially to the body, and trains at AKA. He has a significant layoff but looked impressive in his last win over Charlie Ontiveros. Jim Miller is 40 years old and tends to fade in later rounds if he doesn't get an early finish. Benítez's technical striking advantage should allow him to outwork Miller from distance and potentially hurt him to the body. I expect Benítez to win by decision, but I'm cautious about the layoff and Miller's power. I'd wait for better odds on Benítez, ideally plus 140 or higher.

"I'm going to lean bonitz ever so slightly by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Paul leans towards Benítez as the number climbs, noting that Jim Miller's recent wins are against low-level competition and that Benítez has a speed advantage and kicks very hard. He mentions that if the line moves to +150, he would take a shot on Benítez, but he's not heavily invested.

over 1.5 rounds -140
"I'm going to ever so SL lean towards Gabriel Mowgli Benitez as this number climbs"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller, admitting bias but citing Miller's consistency and activity. He notes Gabriel Benítez has been inactive for nearly two years and lost to David Onama. He believes Miller still has fast-twitch muscle and finishing ability, predicting a TKO finish in the first round.

TKO in the first round
"I'm going to go with Jim Miller getting this one done by TKO finish in the first round"
WIN vs Jesse Butler
KO (punch) R1 0:23 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 1 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jesse Butler 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 1 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jesse Butler 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jesse Butler 1 of 7 14% 1 of 5 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jesse Butler 1 of 7 14% 1 of 5 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jesse Butler vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: N/A

Round 1
The widest gap in UFC experience will take place in this ultra-late notice lightweight fight. With the most fights (and wins) in company history, Miller (35-17, 1 NC; 24-16, 1 NC UFC) gladly accepted anyone they threw at him, after losing opponents Ludovit Klein and Jared Gordon. Taking the call this week, Butler (12-4, 0-0 UFC) will be making his UFC debut on the heels of five straight wins, including three in the growing Fury FC organization. In comparison, Miller had already competed 20 times in the UFC by the time Butler made his professional debut. This pairing that may not end in the hands of the judges will be officiated by referee Dan Miragliotta, and the fighters are glad to be competing and display this with a glove touch. Butler leads off with a left hand, and he loads up on a right hand and a body kick. Miller avoids all three, but he walks into a big pair of punches as the newcomer is ready for him. “A-10” flies into action with a right hand and a left, and the second stings his foe.
Miller corks back a bomb of a left hand and detonates it on the chin of the debutant, and Butler collapses like a bird that’s just had its wings clipped. Just to punctuate his performance, Miller clobbers the unconscious fighter with a devastating uppercut before Miragliotta can get between them.
Butler is all the way out, and takes some time to regain his senses from the vicious destruction. Miller declares in his post-fight interview that he has few things left he wants to accomplish in the sport, other than landing a kimura on an opponent, fighting at UFC 300 and facing someone he is “a fan” of in the cage. If Miller keeps fighting like that, it will be up to him when he wants to hang it up, as he very likely earned the fastest finish of his illustrious career while extending his record for the most wins in organizational history (25).

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Jesse Butler R1 0:23 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Angelo picks Gordon, noting he looked sharp against Bobby Green before the headbutt. He thinks Gordon's wrestling and volume striking will be too much for an aging Miller. He is concerned about Gordon being knocked out recently but believes Miller has slowed down. He is not betting this fight.

"I think Jared Gordon is is much better striker in this fight and uh I'm pretty confident in him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody picks Jared Gordon very reluctantly. He acknowledges Miller's power and submission threat early, but thinks Gordon will work him over slowly if it goes 15 minutes. Cody notes Gordon's wrestling and striking volume should be enough to outpoint Miller. He admits Miller could knock Gordon out, but he's sticking with Gordon as the right pick despite the risk.

"I'm looking to get the right pick and I think the right pick is Jared Gordon so very reluctantly again I I will stick with them"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller, hedging against Gordon's recent knockout loss. He admits that in a vacuum he would pick Gordon, but is too worried about Gordon's durability after being knocked out cold by Bobby Green a month ago. Connor notes that Miller still has sharp counter-punching and can finish anyone, and that Gordon's new patient style might play into Miller's hands.

Concern about Gordon's recent KO loss and short notice replacement.
"I'm going to take Jim Miller. I'm going to hedge against Gordon here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Daniel picks Jared Gordon, expecting him to outwork Jim Miller in the later rounds. He notes that Miller is a potent finisher early, but Gordon's volume and cardio should take over as the fight goes on. He acknowledges the recent KO loss for Gordon but doesn't put much stock in it, and sees a 29-28 decision either way.

"I'm on Gordon so we finally have our first opposite side"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Jacob picks Gordon, citing his performance against Bobby Green where he landed clean combinations. He thinks Gordon can point-fight and avoid Miller's power. Jacob notes Miller has power but is flat-footed and hittable. He is confident Gordon wins by outworking Miller.

"I believe Jared Gordon can kind of avoid those power shots like he did against Paddy kind of in out Point fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Gordon puts high volume and pressure, mixing striking, clinching, and grappling. Miller fades in later rounds and relies on early success. Gordon will tie him up, maintain pace, and win a decision. The five-week layoff from the no-contest is not a major concern.

"I like Gordon to just go out there and do work do what he did to Leonardo Santos in terms of just putting forward pressure on and just putting output and volume that Jim Miller may not be able to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Paul picks Jim Miller as the value side at +155. He notes Miller has one-punch power and a chin that could catch Gordon, who has been knocked out before. Paul mentions Gordon's recent no-contest due to a headbutt and his history of getting knocked out. He thinks Miller could finish early, but if it goes the distance, Gordon might outwork him. Paul is reluctant but sees value in the underdog.

Jim Miller by knockout prop
"I think plus 155 is the value side 100 what do you think so I'm going to agree with you I think it's the value side I think Jay Miller could absolutely win this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jesse Butler

The MMA Guru picks Jesse Butler (referred to as Jared Gordon, but the fight is Jim Miller vs Jesse Butler; likely a mistake in the transcript, but the pick is for Butler). He notes that Butler was looking good before being KO'd by Bobby Green (which was a headbutt). He believes Butler is simply a better fighter than Jim Miller, who he thinks has lost a step, as seen in his loss to Alexander Hernandez. He predicts Butler by decision, 30-27 or 29-28.

Butler by decision
"I'm going with Jared Gordon although Jared Gordon just got ko'd and it really does worry me... I do still think he's just a better fighter simply a better fighter than Jim Miller"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Zane picks Gordon in a vacuum, believing Gordon's improved boxing and pressure will be too much for the aging Miller. He notes that Miller's striking falls apart when he is forced to consistently go forward or backward, and Gordon's style can exploit that. However, Zane expresses concern about Gordon's recent knockout loss to Bobby Green just a month ago, which could affect his durability.

Concern about Gordon's recent KO loss (April 22nd) and short turnaround.
"I would pick him in a vacuum based on the styles and the age of Jim Miller."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 0 67 of 185 36% 68 of 186 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:40
Jim Miller 0 108 of 234 46% 111 of 238 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 24 of 70 34% 24 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 32 of 66 48% 32 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Hernandez 0 16 of 50 32% 17 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Jim Miller 0 34 of 74 45% 34 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Hernandez 0 27 of 65 41% 27 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:39
Jim Miller 0 42 of 94 44% 45 of 98 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 67 of 185 36% 32 of 137 16 of 25 19 of 23 64 of 182 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jim Miller 108 of 234 46% 62 of 169 39 of 50 7 of 15 98 of 223 3 of 3 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 24 of 70 34% 12 of 53 8 of 10 4 of 7 24 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jim Miller 32 of 66 48% 14 of 43 12 of 15 6 of 8 31 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 16 of 50 32% 9 of 39 3 of 7 4 of 4 16 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jim Miller 34 of 74 45% 21 of 55 12 of 16 1 of 3 34 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Hernandez 27 of 65 41% 11 of 45 5 of 8 11 of 12 24 of 62 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jim Miller 42 of 94 44% 27 of 71 15 of 19 0 of 4 33 of 84 2 of 2 7 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-230), Miller (+195)

Round 1
The main card kicks off with what should be an action-packed 155-pound tilt for as long as it lasts. On a hot streak with three finishes in a row, Miller (35-16, 1 NC; 24-15, 1 NC UFC) is determined to rattle off several more wins and potentially call it quits at UFC 300 next year. Standing in his way is late replacement Hernandez (13-6, 5-5 UFC), who returns to his weight class after an ill-fated trip to featherweight two months ago. Referee Herb Dean watches on as the two men decide not to touch gloves. Instead, Hernandez moves to the center of the cage and looses a head kick, and Miller takes it and fires back with a left hand down the pipe. Miller kicks the lead leg, counters a jab with a left hand and absorbs a calf kick coming back his way. Miller darts forward with a one-two, and Hernandez pushes off to slide a finger in Miller’s right eye. Miller does not acknowledge it, and Dean calls it for him and lets him recover anyway. Miller is good to go after about 15 seconds, and he reintroduces himself with a gnarly leg kick that makes Hernandez pick it up and lift it far back. Miller rushes forward with a few punches, and he rips a head kick that collides with the dome of his foe. Miller rings his bell a few more times with punches, and Hernandez separates and gathers his thoughts. The veteran keeps working on the lead leg, and Hernandez responds in kind. Hernandez catches Miller coming forward with one to the low calf, and Miller stumbles and blitzes with a four-punch salvo that drives Hernandez to the wall. Hernandez keeps his wits about him, circles away and pushes out a front kick that connects with the jaw. They fire off head kicks at the same time, and Miller knocks his foe back with a right hand. Hernandez gets off two punches before Miller can catch him, and he kicks Miller on the way back. A Hernandez jab leads to Miller racing forward with a one-two, and Hernandez slides out of harm’s way and plants the ball of his foot on the chest. Miller swings wildly with hooks, and Hernandez evades them all and continues feeding Miller a steady diet of kicks. Miller snaps the head back with a left hand, and he gives chase as Hernandez backpedals. Miller plods straight forward, throwing haymakers, while Hernandez strafes away. Miller swings a high kick that is barely blocked in time, and Hernandez works the lead leg in response. As Hernandez comes in throwing a punch, Miller attempts to kick the body, but it comes up short and clacks off the cup. Hernandez needs about 20 seconds to gather his wind, and they get back to exchanging. The round ends as Miller’s nose starts to bleed.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
The lightweights meet in the middle, and the first strike lands in the form of a Miller kick to the thigh. Hernandez backs off to crack Miller with a short left hook, and he scores a high kick that is barely blocked. Miller runs straight forward to attack, and Hernandez snipes him with a left hook again before stopping the takedown. Hernandez steps in with a knee to the body, and he jabs to the same spot and retreats. Miller gets stung with a right hand over the top, and Miller bounces off the fence and throws back with a vengeance. Miller takes a body kick and a right hand, and Hernandez is starting to bust Miller’s face up and cause some serious swelling. Miller scores a solid left hand but it is one-and-done before Hernandez can move away and counter. Hernandez ignores a low kick to split the guard with a straight right hand, and he rips a standing elbow right on the forehead. Miller goes up high with a kick, and it is easily blocked. Miller scores at the end of a two-punch salvo, but not before absorbing a kick to the ribs. Miller takes one on the chin and fires back, but Hernandez appears the faster fighter and the more elusive of the two. Hernandez splits the guard with a few strikes, beating Miller to the punch and slowing him down. “The Great Ape” blasts the midsection with a knee, and he jabs a few more times before having to block a head kick. Hernandez steps in to elbow and then knee Miller, and Miller can only take them without being able to land back with much. Miller stings his foe with a left hand, and he rushes after him with a few blows but is stunned from an elbow. Hernandez looks for elbows as he backs Miller up to the wall, and Miller wings a right hand that Hernandez practically ignores. Miller backs Hernandez up with a few more strikes, and he blocks a knee up the middle with kicks the liver. Hernandez digs a kick to the body and comfortably lands a jab as he backs off, and the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 3
Fists fly immediately to start off the last round, and Miller pushes the pace and knocks Hernandez back a few times. Hernandez strikes back, ripping opening a cut under Miller’s eye. Miller replies with a sweeping low kick, and he kicks the same spot when Hernandez recovers. Miller fights through a few jabs to charge with a barrage of punches, and he rocks Hernandez with a left hand over the top. Hernandez ties him up against the wall, and Miller knees the body and defends against a single-leg takedown. Hernandez goes low, and Miller grabs his neck with a guillotine choke. Hernandez stands up, backs off an elbow Miller on the dome. Miller lands a powerful low kick as he eats a right hand, and he fires a kick to the opposite leg as Hernandez’ balance is shaken up from these kicks. Miller takes a few right hands cleanly and a knee on the belly, but he keeps pushing forward throwing bombs. Miller checks a body kick and cracks Hernandez with a left hand, and Hernandez shakes it off and starts to get his jab going. Miller leads the dance with a few haymakers, and Hernandez is light on his feet with quick, straight punches. Miller blocks kicks on both sides, and he takes a one-two and whiffs on a huge left hand. Hernandez pushes forward and bullies the veteran to the wall, but Miller grits his teeth and throws bombs. Hernandez blocks a kick and sticks out a jab, and he is met with a step-in vertical elbow. Miller reaches with a right hand, and he walks face-first into an elbow. Miller lands, Hernandez responds, and Miller lashes out again. Hernandez plants the ball of his foot on Miller’s chin, but Miller does not flinch. Hernandez gets Miller’s attention in an exchange, and Miller shakes him up. Hernandez throws hands, and Miller kicks low and sweeps Hernandez to the mat. Miller works his way to take the back, and he locks down a rear-naked choke that is tight but on the chin. Miller squeezes with everything he has left, and Hernandez grits it out and survives it to turn Miller around and stand up. “The Great Ape” rains down punches right to the bitter end, and this absolute thriller is now left in the hands of the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller (29-28 Miller)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Miller (29-28 Miller)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Hernandez but won't bet on him due to lack of trust. He acknowledges Hernandez's talent, speed, power, and wrestling, but notes his inconsistency and 'brain fart' moments. Angelo thinks Jim Miller will finally look old and slow, and Hernandez should win by being faster and stronger. However, he admits he'll be rooting for Miller and keeps his money in his pocket.

"Hernandez is going to be the pick but absolutely under no circumstances am I spending money on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady likes Hernandez to wrestle and grind out a decision, similar to his win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier. He notes that Miller has been controlled by wrestlers like Joe Solecki and Vince Pichel. He worries about Hernandez's cardio but thinks the path to victory is clear. He also mentions both have knockout power early, but expects a decision.

Hernandez by decision
"I'm still going Hernandez I'm taking Hernandez to kind of grind this one out win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody picks Hernandez based on tape and skill, calling him a better athlete who moves better and hits harder. He notes Hernandez is confidence-driven and coming in on short notice, which might help him avoid overthinking. He says Jim Miller is a better fighter but at 39 with Lyme disease, the train will fall off eventually. He acknowledges Hernandez's cardio issues and tendency to fall apart if he doesn't finish early, but thinks the short notice and no weight cut to 145 will benefit him.

Cody says the line is no good and Hernandez is massively untrustworthy. He mentions Miller is always the dog and has been live in similar spots. He says he can't bet Miller but picks Hernandez.
"I just gotta go based on tape and skill and I would say Hernandez is just a better athlete he moves better he hits harder he is a better athletic fighter Jim Miller is a better fighter fighter but you …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller as well, emphasizing that Hernandez's problems are mental and technical, not size-related. Miller is tough, crafty, and a harder hitter than Hernandez's recent opponents. Connor expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, and Miller to take over in later rounds.

"I'm picking Jim Miller as well. I'm I feel very confident. He will lose the first round of this fight... But I can't trust Hernandez not to find a way out of this fight if Miller can just hang tough."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Jacob is picking Jim Miller, calling it a matchup nightmare for Hernandez. He believes Hernandez looks great early but fades when pressured, and Miller's experience and toughness will take over. Jacob notes Miller's recent wins show power and submissions, and he thinks Hernandez's weight class changes indicate desperation. He expects Miller to outwork Hernandez and possibly finish him.

"I'm taking the experience here in Jim Miller I think he outworks this kid."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez has physical advantages in speed, power, and explosiveness, which should allow him to dictate the fight early. He can grind Miller against the cage or land a quick knockout. However, Miller's durability and cardio could become factors if Hernandez fades. Low confidence pick via decision.

Hernandez wins by decision
"I lean Hernandez... I'm gonna ultimately with very low confidence say that he wins this by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Paul picks Jim Miller but is hesitant, acknowledging Hernandez could land a big bomb early. He notes Miller's last three wins are all second-round finishes and that Hernandez tends to fall apart if he doesn't finish early. He says Miller is very live here and is the best underdog on the card. However, he won't bet the moneyline because he thinks the fight has to play out a certain way for Miller to win. He prefers a sprinkle on Miller round two and live betting.

Paul sprinkles Jim Miller round two. He says he's more interested in live betting if Miller survives round one. He mentions Miller was favored against Mata and Eric Gonzalez.
"I'm gonna sprinkle the round two prop for Jim Miller and uh and be more interested in entering uh from a live market perspective because if he's living after round one it is it's Miller time."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller, noting that Alexander Hernandez has only one round of fight in him and is taking this fight on short notice after a recent loss where he took heavy damage. He believes Miller's veteran experience and toughness will allow him to survive Hernandez's early onslaught and then take over, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in the second or third round
"I want to take Jim Miller here I'm gonna take Jim Miller they've made him an underdog against Alexander Hernandez who always has one round of fight in him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Zane picks Miller because Hernandez has fundamental issues with range and defense, and he overreacts to counter strikes. Miller is a good counter puncher and will find openings. Hernandez may win the first round, but if Miller survives, he can take over. Zane notes that Hernandez's confidence is fragile after moving back to lightweight.

Miller opened +210, now +191; Hernandez opened -250, now -241. Zane says he's surprised Miller is such an underdog and thinks even odds would be more accurate.
"I'll take Jim. Yeah, I'm gonna roll with it, too. I just her name did like it, you know, I said with the Jordan Wright situation. It's just like you see somebody in this kind of career limbo."
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 1:32 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 24 of 36 66% 35 of 48 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:03
Donald Cerrone 0 21 of 33 63% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 21 of 29 72% 32 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Donald Cerrone 0 17 of 26 65% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:08
2 Jim Miller 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 24 of 36 66% 16 of 28 6 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 27 0 of 0 7 of 9
Donald Cerrone 21 of 33 63% 12 of 20 6 of 8 3 of 5 21 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 21 of 29 72% 15 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 20 0 of 0 7 of 9
Donald Cerrone 17 of 26 65% 10 of 16 5 of 6 2 of 4 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 4 of 7 57% 2 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Angelo picks Jim Miller based on his recent knockout wins over prospects, while noting that Cerrone is stepping in on short notice and may not be in peak form. He acknowledges Cerrone's technical advantage but believes Miller's toughness and momentum give him the edge. He also mentions that Cerrone at +200 might be worth a small sprinkle.

Cerrone at +200 might be worth a couple dollar long shot
"I think i'm siding with jim miller here but the odds are kind of crazy donald cerrone is a two-to-one underdog and he might be worth a couple dollar sprinkle"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady is confident in Jim Miller, stating Donald Cerrone looks washed and doesn't want to be there. He notes Miller's power and first-round finishing ability, predicting a first-round knockout. He mentions Cerrone's recent struggles and weight cuts, while Miller is still active and motivated.

Miller by first round knockout
"give me uh jim miller to win jim miller to win my first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Cody thinks Miller's improved boxing and fast starts will overwhelm Cerrone, who has looked poor recently. He notes Miller's wrestling and submissions are also threats. He expects Miller to finish early.

"I think Jim Miller gets the pounce on him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Daniel Levi leans toward Donald Cerrone as the underdog, citing the price (+165) and the fact that Cerrone has beaten Miller before via head kick. He notes that Miller tends to slow down after the first round, and if Cerrone can weather the early storm, he can take over. Levi acknowledges that Cerrone is past his prime and has lost to lesser opponents, but he sees value in the dog price. He does not bet it himself.

Dog-or-pass; price is everything; no bet.
"i'm gonna lean with cowboy because of the price man plus 165"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Cerrone is the better fighter with more tools, and the line is too wide. Miller is a quick starter but if he doesn't finish early, Cerrone takes over. Cerrone at 170 lbs benefits him. The host predicts Cerrone by decision, noting Miller's cardio is not as bad as some claim.

Cerrone round 3/decision double chance
"i think the line is whack i think this should be closer to it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is torn, calling it a 50-50 fight. He likes Cerrone's chances if he survives the first round, especially at welterweight, but won't bet Miller at -185. He might sprinkle on a Cerrone late finish prop.

Cerrone round 3 +1600
"I don't know if I'm gonna get to Cerrone"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Donald Cerrone as an underdog, citing the fight being at welterweight where Cerrone won't have to cut as much weight, preserving his chin and cardio. He thinks Miller's power may not translate up a division and that Cerrone can survive the first round and rally in later rounds. He calls it a 50/50 fight and predicts a 29-28 decision for Cerrone.

underdog pick, fight of the night performance
"i'm gonna actually go with donald cerrone here in an underdog pick i think at 170 he shouldn't be that big of an underdog and this is a 50 50."