The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale · Nov 30, 2013 · Women's Bantamweight · Completed
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Age 36
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 49
Height 5' 7"
Reach N/A
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Julianna Peña
3.1 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
2.56 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.7 TD Avg
54.0% TD Acc.
24.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jessica Rakoczy
2.5 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
3.55 SApM
64.0% Str. Def.
0.75 TD Avg
20.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Julianna Peña - Fight History
LOSS vs Kayla Harrison
Submission R2 4:55 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 0 9 of 30 30% 15 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kayla Harrison 0 30 of 54 55% 59 of 88 2 of 3 66% 1 0 6:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 6 of 17 35% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kayla Harrison 0 8 of 24 33% 24 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:35
2 Julianna Peña 0 3 of 13 23% 6 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kayla Harrison 0 22 of 30 73% 35 of 47 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 9 of 30 30% 8 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 26 0 of 0 4 of 4
Kayla Harrison 30 of 54 55% 17 of 39 9 of 10 4 of 5 15 of 36 6 of 7 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 6 of 17 35% 5 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 4
Kayla Harrison 8 of 24 33% 5 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 21 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Julianna Peña 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kayla Harrison 22 of 30 73% 12 of 19 8 of 9 2 of 2 10 of 15 6 of 7 6 of 8
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Angelo picks Kayla Harrison based on her Olympic judo credentials and physicality. He acknowledges Peña's toughness and ability to survive, but thinks relying on Kayla gassing is not a real strategy. He notes Kayla has fought 25 minutes before and can win the first three rounds. He finds the odds too wide and is hesitant to bet on Kayla.

Odds are too wide; probably won't bet on Kayla.
"Kayla Harrison's going to be the pick. Obviously, the odds are insane. I would say these odds are actually too wide."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Big Brady is confident in Kayla Harrison, citing her ability to take down anyone, including Ketlen Vieira who has great takedown defense. He notes Peña's 23% takedown defense and questions her motivation. He expects Harrison to get the fight to the ground, mix in ground and pound, and eventually submit Peña in the second round. He mentions weight cut concerns but thinks Harrison will dominate if she makes weight.

Harrison by submission in round 2
"I think Harrison gets the fight down to the ground. I think she mixes in some ground and pound. I think she eventually gets a submission here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Connor picks Peña, citing the potential for Harrison to get anxious and gas if Peña pressures her. He notes that Peña's chaotic, relentless style could rattle Harrison, who has shown discomfort in striking exchanges. Connor admits it's a risky pick but thinks the funnier outcome and Peña's ability to exploit Harrison's unease make it plausible.

Odds: Peña +551. Connor thinks the odds are too wide and the fight should be closer.
"I am going to pick Juliana Pena."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Harrison is much better than Peña in every area. She will utilize her physicality, judo, and grappling to get Peña to the ground, wear her out, and ground and pound her for a TKO victory, becoming the new bantamweight champion.

win by TKO
"Look for Harrison to utilize her physicality, her judo, her grappling to eventually get Pena to the ground, wear her out and eventually ground and pound her on route to a TKO victory and new bantamweight champion Kayla Harrison."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison by decision, citing her physicality and grappling advantage. He criticizes Peña's standup as abysmal and notes Harrison's strength will be too much. He acknowledges Harrison's standup is not great but believes she will out-grapple Peña. He thinks Peña is tough but difficult to finish, so he predicts a decision win. He notes the odds of -600 are too high, suggesting value on Peña by submission.

Odds comment: Harrison should be -300, not -600. Value on Peña by submission or finish. Finish prediction: decision win.
"I'm going to go with Kayla Harrison getting this one done. Decision win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Zane picks Kayla Harrison, reasoning that Peña's takedown defense is poor and Harrison's judo and top control should be enough to dominate. He acknowledges Harrison's striking is awkward and she can panic, but believes Peña's wild aggression will play into Harrison's strengths. Zane notes the odds are too wide and the fight should be closer to -200.

Odds: Harrison -658, Peña +551. Zane thinks the odds are too wide, should be around -200.
"I have to still pick Harrison here."
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 1 92 of 317 29% 112 of 345 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Raquel Pennington 0 92 of 260 35% 123 of 308 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 17 of 60 28% 17 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 25 of 59 42% 25 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Julianna Peña 0 6 of 24 25% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 6 of 16 37% 18 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:00
3 Julianna Peña 0 8 of 34 23% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 18 of 33 54% 35 of 53 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:20
4 Julianna Peña 1 26 of 84 30% 26 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Raquel Pennington 0 16 of 67 23% 18 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
5 Julianna Peña 0 35 of 115 30% 35 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Raquel Pennington 0 27 of 85 31% 27 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 92 of 317 29% 57 of 277 29 of 33 6 of 7 88 of 308 4 of 6 0 of 3
Raquel Pennington 92 of 260 35% 82 of 248 9 of 11 1 of 1 90 of 256 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 17 of 60 28% 12 of 53 3 of 4 2 of 3 17 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 25 of 59 42% 24 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Julianna Peña 6 of 24 25% 2 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Julianna Peña 8 of 34 23% 5 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 18 of 33 54% 14 of 28 3 of 4 1 of 1 16 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Julianna Peña 26 of 84 30% 12 of 69 12 of 13 2 of 2 25 of 80 1 of 1 0 of 3
Raquel Pennington 16 of 67 23% 14 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Julianna Peña 35 of 115 30% 26 of 105 8 of 9 1 of 1 34 of 113 1 of 2 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 27 of 85 31% 24 of 81 3 of 4 0 of 0 27 of 84 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington to win by grinding against the cage, using her technical striking and control. He notes Julianna Peña is coming off a two-year layoff and a severe beating, which often leads to poor performances. He believes Pennington's durability and preparation at elevation will be key, and that Peña's chaotic style won't be enough. He also mentions that Pennington's wife Tisha Torres fights earlier, which could affect her mentally if Tisha loses.

"Rocko Pennington is the pick and I'm fairly confident that she gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her recent activity and impressive wins over Macy Chiasson, Ketlen Vieira, and Mayra Bueno Silva. He notes Peña has been inactive for two years and lost to Amanda Nunes. He believes Pennington is the better striker and has strong clinch work, and expects her to win a decision.

"I got to go Pennington here and I think Pennington is going to win this fight and win it probably probably by decision Pennington Pennington by decision more active better fighter give me Pennington"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Cody picks Pennington due to Peña's two-year layoff, age, and tendency to fatigue. He highlights Pennington's durability, volume striking, and ability to fight five rounds. He expects Pennington to pressure Peña against the cage and win a decision.

Raquel Pennington by decision
"I will take Ral Pennington"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Connor picks Pennington, but hesitantly. He thinks Pennington's crafty boxing and durability will allow her to survive Peña's initial onslaught and win rounds in the clinch. He notes that Pennington is comfortable in long clinches and can land knees and front headlock chokes. However, he acknowledges Peña's athleticism and aggression make it a tough fight.

Same odds commentary.
"I think she is going to end up in a lot of long clinches with rocky which is a position where rocky is very comfortable even against stronger women."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Vreeland picks Raquel Pennington. He cites multiple factors: Pennington trains at elevation and has amazing cardio, while Peña has not fought since July 2022 and has a history of poor preparation for elevation. Vreeland notes that Pennington's style is exhausting to fight, as seen in her win over Mayra Bueno Silva. He also points out that Pennington's boxing looked good in her last fight, while Peña's boxing looked terrible with wild swings. He believes Pennington will grind out a win, likely by decision or late TKO.

Pennington by TKO +2000
"I'm going Raquel Pennington yes sir"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Raquel Pennington, citing her superior boxing and clinch work. He believes Pennington can keep the fight standing and piece up Peña, possibly even choking her out if Peña shoots a sloppy takedown. He is not confident in Peña's evolution since her loss to Amanda Nunes and thinks Pennington's takedown defense will be key.

"I do lean Pennington man if she can keep this fight standing she's gonna box this girl up even piece her up in the clinch with knees and elbows"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Jeff Fox picks Raquel Pennington. He agrees with Vreeland on the elevation advantage and Peña's layoff. He notes that Pennington is a tough out, especially if Peña doesn't properly prepare. Fox thinks Pennington will grind out a win, though it may not be pretty.

Pennington by decision +110
"I'm in on all of that as well Raquel Pennington she's a tough out especially if you're not going to properly prepare for it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Julianna Peña

The host thinks Peña is the overall better fighter and that her wrestling advantage will nullify Pennington's game. He believes people are overlooking Peña due to her loss to Amanda Nunes, but notes Pennington is nowhere near Nunes's level. He expects Peña to lean on her wrestling and grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes.

submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes
"look for Peña to go out there lean on her wrestling lean on her grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Peña's two-year layoff and Pennington's cardio advantage. He notes Pennington's recent procedure as a minor concern but believes her durability and wrestling will carry her to a decision win.

Raquel Pennington by decision
"Pennington probably Pennington by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Julianna Peña, citing Peña's long layoff (over two years) and inactivity. He notes Pennington trains at altitude and has a cage control game. He acknowledges Peña's win over Nunes but questions her deserving a title shot. He is not confident, calling it a tough pick, but goes with Pennington due to Peña's ring rust.

"I'm going to go Raquel Pennington you guys Juliana Pena hasn't been in she's 10 and five fighting for she's 35 years old who are you like what are you doing go away"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Zane picks Peña, arguing that Pennington is slow-footed and will get stuck on the cage, allowing Peña to impose her physicality and wrestling. He believes Peña's aggression and strength will overwhelm Pennington, despite Pennington's improved boxing and durability. Zane thinks Peña will win the belt and set up a fight with Kayla Harrison.

Peña opened at +145, currently +147. Pennington opened at -185, now -166.
"So i'm just i'm gonna take penia i'm gonna take penia to go out and be her absolute most annoying self and win this belt and give an indecipherable interview afterward."
LOSS vs Amanda Nunes
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–44, 50–43) R5 5:00 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 0 60 of 154 38% 130 of 239 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 3 85 of 152 55% 126 of 201 6 of 8 75% 1 0 11:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 0 21 of 51 41% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 25 of 47 53% 25 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Amanda Nunes 0 25 of 66 37% 31 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 3 19 of 48 39% 24 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
3 Amanda Nunes 0 6 of 21 28% 31 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 14 of 23 60% 23 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:02
4 Amanda Nunes 0 4 of 10 40% 33 of 42 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 16 of 20 80% 34 of 40 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:54
5 Amanda Nunes 0 4 of 6 66% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 11 of 14 78% 20 of 26 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 60 of 154 38% 54 of 144 6 of 10 0 of 0 59 of 151 1 of 3 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 85 of 152 55% 67 of 128 10 of 14 8 of 10 57 of 117 0 of 1 28 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 21 of 51 41% 20 of 49 1 of 2 0 of 0 21 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 25 of 47 53% 17 of 37 3 of 3 5 of 7 25 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Nunes 25 of 66 37% 21 of 59 4 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 19 of 48 39% 13 of 40 4 of 6 2 of 2 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Amanda Nunes 6 of 21 28% 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 14 of 23 60% 12 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 13 0 of 1 7 of 9
4 Amanda Nunes 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 16 of 20 80% 15 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 14
5 Amanda Nunes 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 11 of 14 78% 10 of 12 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 10
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Big Brady picks Amanda Nunes to win by first-round submission. He believes Nunes is better everywhere and that the first fight was a one-off due to injury or motivation issues. He expects Nunes to finish early, but if it extends, he has concerns about her cardio. He is not betting this fight.

"i'm going to take nunes here... i'll say nunez first round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Cody believes Peña is the right pick because she already exposed Nunes' cardio and quit rate. He notes Nunes has suspect cardio, has shown red flags in fights against Germaine de Randamie and Felicia Spencer, and may be unmotivated after becoming a multi-millionaire and mother. He also points out that Peña is durable, pressures well, and the odds (+245) are too juicy to pass up given she just choked Nunes out. He expects Peña to win again, possibly taking a bit longer this time.

Nunes under 2 takedowns on PrizePicks; odds are too juicy for Peña at +245
"i just think that the pace at some point will cause amanda to quit... the odds are just way too juicy to look away here's a girl that just choked her out in the second round standing feels like crap …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Daniel argues that Julianna Peña's ability to stand up to the bully and absorb Nunes' power is the key factor. He notes that Peña's iron jaw and willpower broke Nunes mentally in the first fight, causing her to tap to a choke that wasn't locked in. He believes Nunes has a history of struggling when opponents don't back down, citing the Cat Zingano fight and the Valentina Shevchenko fights. He acknowledges Nunes could win via calf kicks or a submission, but he trusts Peña's heart and durability. He also points out that long-reigning champions rarely regain their belt in immediate rematches, citing a 11-2 record for the new champion.

1 unit bet at +245; mentions that Peña could win by ground and pound from full mount this time
"I'm taking Juliana Peña. I only put one unit on it, um I think I got it plus 245."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Amanda Nunes

Preet leans Nunes to win but won't lay -260; instead he likes the over 2.5 rounds at +100. He expects a more cautious, methodical fight that goes into the later rounds, noting that rematches of first-round finishes often go the distance. He thinks Nunes will be more disciplined and use leg kicks and combinations, but Peña's durability and pressure could extend the fight.

over 2.5 rounds +100
"the spot that i think that is being overlooked here is the the over uh over one and a half minus 190 not bad but even the over two and a half plus 100"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Paul picks Peña as well, citing the narrative that Nunes emptied her tank early in the first fight and quit. He thinks Nunes can win a striking match if she paces herself, but he's terrified to bet the fight. He notes that Peña is super durable and that the odds (+245) are attractive. He compares it to Ronda Rousey's loss to Holly Holm, where people still believed in Rousey, but here Peña already beat Nunes.

Nunes under 2 takedowns on PrizePicks; odds are too juicy for Peña at +245
"i'll pick pena if i was going to bet but like i'm terrified to bet this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Julianna Peña

The MMA Guru predicts Julianna Peña wins by submission (rear-naked choke) in round four. He expects Nunes to win the first two rounds with takedowns and jabs, but Peña will threaten submissions throughout. In round four, Peña times a takedown, passes to half guard, takes the back, and chokes Nunes out.

submission in round 4
"juliana pena choked her around on round four"
WIN vs Amanda Nunes
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:26 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 0 46 of 99 46% 58 of 112 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:35
Amanda Nunes 0 79 of 135 58% 90 of 147 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 10 of 14 71% 22 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:35
Amanda Nunes 0 5 of 20 25% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Julianna Peña 0 36 of 85 42% 36 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Nunes 0 74 of 115 64% 74 of 115 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 46 of 99 46% 36 of 85 1 of 3 9 of 11 44 of 97 0 of 0 2 of 2
Amanda Nunes 79 of 135 58% 69 of 122 10 of 13 0 of 0 78 of 134 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 10 of 14 71% 4 of 7 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 12 0 of 0 2 of 2
Amanda Nunes 5 of 20 25% 5 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Julianna Peña 36 of 85 42% 32 of 78 0 of 1 4 of 6 36 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Nunes 74 of 115 64% 64 of 103 10 of 12 0 of 0 73 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Big Brady is very confident in Amanda Nunes winning early, likely by first-round submission. He notes that Nunes is the GOAT and has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, and cardio. Peña has poor takedown defense (23%) and was submitted by GDR, which is concerning. Nunes can finish by knockout or submission, and Brady expects a quick finish.

Nunes by submission in round 1
"i think amanda nunez is going to get it done i think she's going to get it done early very early in the first round whether it's a first round knockout or a first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Daniel Levi picks Amanda Nunes to win by submission in the first round. He notes that Peña's striking is sloppy and she has been submitted in two of her last four fights. Levi believes Nunes will establish her jab and calf kicks, and when Peña shoots a sloppy takedown, Nunes will sprawl and lock in a d'arce or anaconda choke. He thinks Peña's trash talk will motivate Nunes to make a statement.

submission, first round, d'arce or anaconda choke
"i think that amanda nunes is going to sprawl on her and i'm thinking a darcer anaconda choke finish in the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Nunes is the far superior fighter and should win, but the method is uncertain. Peña will try to grapple, which could slow the fight and push it past 1.5 rounds. Nunes has KO power, but Peña's durability and grappling could extend the fight. The over 1.5 rounds is a lean, but Nunes inside the distance is the most likely outcome.

over 1.5 rounds, Nunes inside the distance
"i'm going nunez nunes by let's say third round tko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Nunes to win by first-round TKO, dismissing Julianna Peña's chances. He criticizes Peña's striking technique and notes she was submitted by a standing guillotine against Jermaine de Randamie. He believes Nunes is on a different level in strength and skill.

first-round TKO
"i'm gonna go with amanda nunez here she's on a different level she's too strong she's too manly she's too lesbian juliana pena is too heterosexual i'm going with amanda nunez by tko in the first round"
WIN vs Sara McMann
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 3:39 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 0 38 of 76 50% 140 of 192 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:55
Sara McMann 0 21 of 54 38% 28 of 63 3 of 3 100% 0 0 7:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 5 of 20 25% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sara McMann 0 12 of 30 40% 15 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:58
2 Julianna Peña 0 13 of 29 44% 70 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Sara McMann 0 8 of 17 47% 11 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:11
3 Julianna Peña 0 20 of 27 74% 33 of 42 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:47
Sara McMann 0 1 of 7 14% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 38 of 76 50% 27 of 65 11 of 11 0 of 0 20 of 57 10 of 10 8 of 9
Sara McMann 21 of 54 38% 10 of 39 7 of 10 4 of 5 12 of 43 6 of 6 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 5 of 20 25% 5 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sara McMann 12 of 30 40% 7 of 23 3 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Julianna Peña 13 of 29 44% 7 of 23 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 23 6 of 6 0 of 0
Sara McMann 8 of 17 47% 3 of 10 3 of 4 2 of 3 2 of 9 4 of 4 2 of 4
3 Julianna Peña 20 of 27 74% 15 of 22 5 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 14 4 of 4 8 of 9
Sara McMann 1 of 7 14% 0 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sara McMann

Big Brady picks Sara McMann by decision, citing her wrestling advantage and Peña's poor takedown defense (28%). He notes McMann lands 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes with 60% accuracy. He expects McMann to control Peña on the ground for at least two rounds. He is not confident enough to bet but leans towards McMann.

"give me sarah mcmahon 29 28 maybe 30 27"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Sara McMann

Daniel Levi picks Sara McMann, highlighting her superior wrestling and power. He criticizes Julianna Peña's poor takedown defense (28%) and lack of submissions. Levi believes McMann can dominate with top control and avoid Peña's comeback attempts, as long as she stays focused for 15 minutes.

"i'll go with sarah just stay in it for 15 straight minutes keep your head on straight and you win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Sara McMann

McMann is the better wrestler and should be able to get takedowns and control Peña on the ground. Peña has poor takedown defense and her jiu-jitsu off her back is not great. However, McMann is 40 years old and has cardio issues, which is a concern. I think McMann grinds out a decision, but I'm not confident enough to bet on her.

"I'm going with Sara McMann to win this fight via decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Sara McMann

The MMA Guru picks Sara McMann to win by controlling Peña on the ground with top control. He criticizes Peña's submission game, noting she hasn't submitted anyone of note and has been submitted herself. He believes McMann's wrestling and top control will be effective, especially since women's fights are not stood up quickly. He predicts a 30-27 decision via ground control.

30-27 unanimous decision, ground control
"i'm going to go sarah mcmahon smushing her on the ground in half guard with top control the entire round landing total strikes winning herself to fight that way"
Technical Submission (guillotine choke) R3 3:25 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Germaine de Randamie 0 37 of 91 40% 57 of 119 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:48
Julianna Peña 0 27 of 91 29% 58 of 125 3 of 6 50% 0 0 5:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Germaine de Randamie 0 20 of 58 34% 23 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 8 of 43 18% 12 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
2 Germaine de Randamie 0 6 of 9 66% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:48
Julianna Peña 0 11 of 23 47% 30 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:41
3 Germaine de Randamie 0 11 of 24 45% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 8 of 25 32% 16 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Germaine de Randamie 37 of 91 40% 32 of 86 5 of 5 0 of 0 32 of 84 4 of 6 1 of 1
Julianna Peña 27 of 91 29% 19 of 79 7 of 10 1 of 2 18 of 75 2 of 2 7 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Germaine de Randamie 20 of 58 34% 18 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0 20 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 8 of 43 18% 7 of 39 0 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Germaine de Randamie 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 1 of 2 1 of 1
Julianna Peña 11 of 23 47% 6 of 17 5 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 14
3 Germaine de Randamie 11 of 24 45% 8 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 8 of 25 32% 6 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Big Brady leans towards Germaine de Randamie to win by decision. He notes the striking discrepancy favors de Randamie, and while Peña's path is takedowns, he thinks de Randamie can stop them. He is worried about cage control but expects the fight to stay on the feet.

"give me drain derandomy to win this fight by uh by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Daniel picks de Randamie, emphasizing the massive striking gap and Peña's ugly stand-up. He believes de Randamie will clip Peña coming in and possibly knock her out, similar to the Aspen Ladd fight. He acknowledges concern if Peña gets on top but thinks de Randamie's takedown defense has improved and she will pull the trigger.

de Randamie by knockout; mentions the striking gap is bigger than the grappling gap; notes Peña's horrendous stand-up
"i'm gonna roll with jermaine duran maybe a knockout in this spot it kind of reminds me of the aspen lad fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

The host picks Peña as the underdog, believing her wrestling and trip takedowns will be effective against de Randamie's takedown defense. He notes that de Randamie has struggled against grapplers like Nunes and that Peña's style is similar. He predicts a decision win for Peña and thinks the line should be closer to -120.

"i love juliana pena in this situation i'm kind of surprised at the amount of love that's coming in on jermaine duranomy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

The Guru picks Germaine de Randamie, believing she can survive on the ground and will keep the fight standing to beat Peña with leg kicks and eventually finish by TKO. He notes Peña couldn't submit Nico Montano and thinks de Randamie is too big and dangerous.

Prediction: TKO
"i'm going to go to jeremy i think she can survive on the ground and i think she'll keep it standing and beat up juliana pena on the feet with some brutal leg kicks eventually finishing by tko"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: de Randamie vs. Ladd · Jul 13, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 0 45 of 90 50% 108 of 158 2 of 4 50% 0 0 4:36
Nicco Montaño 0 38 of 79 48% 59 of 103 3 of 5 60% 0 0 6:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 9 of 19 47% 14 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nicco Montaño 0 11 of 25 44% 25 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:07
2 Julianna Peña 0 16 of 27 59% 42 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:17
Nicco Montaño 0 13 of 22 59% 17 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:23
3 Julianna Peña 0 20 of 44 45% 52 of 78 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:19
Nicco Montaño 0 14 of 32 43% 17 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 45 of 90 50% 32 of 73 12 of 14 1 of 3 21 of 64 8 of 9 16 of 17
Nicco Montaño 38 of 79 48% 13 of 50 10 of 10 15 of 19 26 of 57 6 of 11 6 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 9 of 19 47% 4 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 12 6 of 7 0 of 0
Nicco Montaño 11 of 25 44% 5 of 16 1 of 1 5 of 8 5 of 14 2 of 5 4 of 6
2 Julianna Peña 16 of 27 59% 13 of 22 2 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 11 2 of 2 13 of 14
Nicco Montaño 13 of 22 59% 3 of 11 2 of 2 8 of 9 7 of 12 4 of 5 2 of 5
3 Julianna Peña 20 of 44 45% 15 of 38 5 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 41 0 of 0 3 of 3
Nicco Montaño 14 of 32 43% 5 of 23 7 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Submission (armbar) R2 4:29 · UFC on Fox: Shevchenko vs. Pena · Jan 28, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 13 of 17 76% 46 of 51 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:42
Julianna Peña 0 27 of 35 77% 78 of 99 1 of 5 20% 0 0 6:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 8 of 12 66% 25 of 29 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:42
Julianna Peña 0 20 of 24 83% 46 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:53
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 5 of 5 100% 21 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 7 of 11 63% 32 of 46 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 13 of 17 76% 5 of 9 7 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 4 7 of 7 5 of 6
Julianna Peña 27 of 35 77% 2 of 5 22 of 27 3 of 3 0 of 2 25 of 30 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 8 of 12 66% 5 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 3 3 of 3 5 of 6
Julianna Peña 20 of 24 83% 0 of 0 17 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 24 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 4 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 7 of 11 63% 2 of 5 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 2 5 of 6 2 of 3
Jessica Rakoczy - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 186: Johnson vs. Horiguchi · Apr 25, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valérie Létourneau 0 46 of 107 42% 60 of 125 1 of 5 20% 1 1 6:19
Jessica Rakoczy 0 38 of 124 30% 50 of 136 2 of 2 100% 2 1 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valérie Létourneau 0 13 of 22 59% 19 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 1 3:27
Jessica Rakoczy 0 2 of 14 14% 2 of 14 1 of 1 100% 2 1 0:43
2 Valérie Létourneau 0 13 of 33 39% 18 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:35
Jessica Rakoczy 0 19 of 51 37% 27 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Valérie Létourneau 0 20 of 52 38% 23 of 56 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:17
Jessica Rakoczy 0 17 of 59 28% 21 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valérie Létourneau 46 of 107 42% 26 of 78 17 of 24 3 of 5 29 of 84 11 of 14 6 of 9
Jessica Rakoczy 38 of 124 30% 17 of 93 10 of 14 11 of 17 27 of 101 10 of 22 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valérie Létourneau 13 of 22 59% 6 of 14 6 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 8 4 of 5 6 of 9
Jessica Rakoczy 2 of 14 14% 1 of 11 0 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 12 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Valérie Létourneau 13 of 33 39% 8 of 25 5 of 8 0 of 0 11 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jessica Rakoczy 19 of 51 37% 8 of 38 3 of 5 8 of 8 14 of 42 5 of 9 0 of 0
3 Valérie Létourneau 20 of 52 38% 12 of 39 6 of 9 2 of 4 15 of 45 5 of 7 0 of 0
Jessica Rakoczy 17 of 59 28% 8 of 44 7 of 8 2 of 7 11 of 47 5 of 11 1 of 1
LOSS vs Julianna Peña
TKO (punches and elbows) R1 4:59 · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale · Nov 30, 2013
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 0 33 of 76 43% 66 of 119 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:29
Jessica Rakoczy 0 4 of 5 80% 8 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 33 of 76 43% 66 of 119 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:29
Jessica Rakoczy 0 4 of 5 80% 8 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 33 of 76 43% 32 of 74 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 4 1 of 2 32 of 70
Jessica Rakoczy 4 of 5 80% 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 33 of 76 43% 32 of 74 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 4 1 of 2 32 of 70
Jessica Rakoczy 4 of 5 80% 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0