The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale · Nov 30, 2013 · Women's Bantamweight · Completed
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Age 37
Height 5' 7"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 43
Height 5' 7"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Raquel Pennington
4.1 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.32 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
0.83 TD Avg
27.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Roxanne Modafferi
3.35 SLpM
30.0% Str. Acc.
5.7 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.35 TD Avg
23.0% TD Acc.
30.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Raquel Pennington - Fight History
LOSS vs Julianna Peña
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 1 92 of 317 29% 112 of 345 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Raquel Pennington 0 92 of 260 35% 123 of 308 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 17 of 60 28% 17 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 25 of 59 42% 25 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Julianna Peña 0 6 of 24 25% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 6 of 16 37% 18 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:00
3 Julianna Peña 0 8 of 34 23% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 18 of 33 54% 35 of 53 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:20
4 Julianna Peña 1 26 of 84 30% 26 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Raquel Pennington 0 16 of 67 23% 18 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
5 Julianna Peña 0 35 of 115 30% 35 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Raquel Pennington 0 27 of 85 31% 27 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 92 of 317 29% 57 of 277 29 of 33 6 of 7 88 of 308 4 of 6 0 of 3
Raquel Pennington 92 of 260 35% 82 of 248 9 of 11 1 of 1 90 of 256 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 17 of 60 28% 12 of 53 3 of 4 2 of 3 17 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 25 of 59 42% 24 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Julianna Peña 6 of 24 25% 2 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Julianna Peña 8 of 34 23% 5 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 18 of 33 54% 14 of 28 3 of 4 1 of 1 16 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Julianna Peña 26 of 84 30% 12 of 69 12 of 13 2 of 2 25 of 80 1 of 1 0 of 3
Raquel Pennington 16 of 67 23% 14 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Julianna Peña 35 of 115 30% 26 of 105 8 of 9 1 of 1 34 of 113 1 of 2 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 27 of 85 31% 24 of 81 3 of 4 0 of 0 27 of 84 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington to win by grinding against the cage, using her technical striking and control. He notes Julianna Peña is coming off a two-year layoff and a severe beating, which often leads to poor performances. He believes Pennington's durability and preparation at elevation will be key, and that Peña's chaotic style won't be enough. He also mentions that Pennington's wife Tisha Torres fights earlier, which could affect her mentally if Tisha loses.

"Rocko Pennington is the pick and I'm fairly confident that she gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her recent activity and impressive wins over Macy Chiasson, Ketlen Vieira, and Mayra Bueno Silva. He notes Peña has been inactive for two years and lost to Amanda Nunes. He believes Pennington is the better striker and has strong clinch work, and expects her to win a decision.

"I got to go Pennington here and I think Pennington is going to win this fight and win it probably probably by decision Pennington Pennington by decision more active better fighter give me Pennington"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Cody picks Pennington due to Peña's two-year layoff, age, and tendency to fatigue. He highlights Pennington's durability, volume striking, and ability to fight five rounds. He expects Pennington to pressure Peña against the cage and win a decision.

Raquel Pennington by decision
"I will take Ral Pennington"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Connor picks Pennington, but hesitantly. He thinks Pennington's crafty boxing and durability will allow her to survive Peña's initial onslaught and win rounds in the clinch. He notes that Pennington is comfortable in long clinches and can land knees and front headlock chokes. However, he acknowledges Peña's athleticism and aggression make it a tough fight.

Same odds commentary.
"I think she is going to end up in a lot of long clinches with rocky which is a position where rocky is very comfortable even against stronger women."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Raquel Pennington, citing her superior boxing and clinch work. He believes Pennington can keep the fight standing and piece up Peña, possibly even choking her out if Peña shoots a sloppy takedown. He is not confident in Peña's evolution since her loss to Amanda Nunes and thinks Pennington's takedown defense will be key.

"I do lean Pennington man if she can keep this fight standing she's gonna box this girl up even piece her up in the clinch with knees and elbows"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Vreeland picks Raquel Pennington. He cites multiple factors: Pennington trains at elevation and has amazing cardio, while Peña has not fought since July 2022 and has a history of poor preparation for elevation. Vreeland notes that Pennington's style is exhausting to fight, as seen in her win over Mayra Bueno Silva. He also points out that Pennington's boxing looked good in her last fight, while Peña's boxing looked terrible with wild swings. He believes Pennington will grind out a win, likely by decision or late TKO.

Pennington by TKO +2000
"I'm going Raquel Pennington yes sir"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Jeff Fox picks Raquel Pennington. He agrees with Vreeland on the elevation advantage and Peña's layoff. He notes that Pennington is a tough out, especially if Peña doesn't properly prepare. Fox thinks Pennington will grind out a win, though it may not be pretty.

Pennington by decision +110
"I'm in on all of that as well Raquel Pennington she's a tough out especially if you're not going to properly prepare for it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Julianna Peña

The host thinks Peña is the overall better fighter and that her wrestling advantage will nullify Pennington's game. He believes people are overlooking Peña due to her loss to Amanda Nunes, but notes Pennington is nowhere near Nunes's level. He expects Peña to lean on her wrestling and grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes.

submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes
"look for Peña to go out there lean on her wrestling lean on her grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Peña's two-year layoff and Pennington's cardio advantage. He notes Pennington's recent procedure as a minor concern but believes her durability and wrestling will carry her to a decision win.

Raquel Pennington by decision
"Pennington probably Pennington by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Julianna Peña, citing Peña's long layoff (over two years) and inactivity. He notes Pennington trains at altitude and has a cage control game. He acknowledges Peña's win over Nunes but questions her deserving a title shot. He is not confident, calling it a tough pick, but goes with Pennington due to Peña's ring rust.

"I'm going to go Raquel Pennington you guys Juliana Pena hasn't been in she's 10 and five fighting for she's 35 years old who are you like what are you doing go away"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Julianna Peña

Zane picks Peña, arguing that Pennington is slow-footed and will get stuck on the cage, allowing Peña to impose her physicality and wrestling. He believes Peña's aggression and strength will overwhelm Pennington, despite Pennington's improved boxing and durability. Zane thinks Peña will win the belt and set up a fight with Kayla Harrison.

Peña opened at +145, currently +147. Pennington opened at -185, now -166.
"So i'm just i'm gonna take penia i'm gonna take penia to go out and be her absolute most annoying self and win this belt and give an indecipherable interview afterward."
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 134 of 201 66% 265 of 342 1 of 3 33% 2 2 11:28
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 69 of 88 78% 96 of 118 3 of 9 33% 3 0 8:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 11 of 22 50% 26 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:16
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 18 of 22 81% 27 of 31 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:20
2 Raquel Pennington 0 33 of 52 63% 47 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:04
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 20 of 30 66% 29 of 41 0 of 1 0% 1 0 2:46
3 Raquel Pennington 0 27 of 43 62% 52 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:32
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 17 of 20 85% 20 of 23 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:35
4 Raquel Pennington 0 29 of 38 76% 75 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:17
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 7 of 8 87% 8 of 10 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:11
5 Raquel Pennington 0 34 of 46 73% 65 of 83 0 of 0 --- 2 0 4:19
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 7 of 8 87% 12 of 13 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 134 of 201 66% 91 of 156 32 of 34 11 of 11 54 of 110 38 of 43 42 of 48
Mayra Bueno Silva 69 of 88 78% 32 of 44 26 of 30 11 of 14 28 of 45 38 of 40 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 11 of 22 50% 7 of 18 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 18 of 22 81% 11 of 13 4 of 5 3 of 4 7 of 11 10 of 10 1 of 1
2 Raquel Pennington 33 of 52 63% 29 of 47 4 of 5 0 of 0 23 of 40 10 of 12 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 20 of 30 66% 7 of 14 10 of 11 3 of 5 7 of 16 12 of 13 1 of 1
3 Raquel Pennington 27 of 43 62% 13 of 28 12 of 13 2 of 2 9 of 23 14 of 16 4 of 4
Mayra Bueno Silva 17 of 20 85% 6 of 8 9 of 10 2 of 2 4 of 6 13 of 14 0 of 0
4 Raquel Pennington 29 of 38 76% 22 of 31 7 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 11 5 of 5 19 of 22
Mayra Bueno Silva 7 of 8 87% 3 of 3 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0
5 Raquel Pennington 34 of 46 73% 20 of 32 5 of 5 9 of 9 8 of 17 7 of 7 19 of 22
Mayra Bueno Silva 7 of 8 87% 5 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2 6 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Title Fight: Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bueno Silva (-170), Pennington (+142)

Round 1
The post-Amanda Nunes era at bantamweight truly begins, as eternal contender Pennington and the red-hot Bueno Silva meet to contest the belt vacated last year by the “Lioness,” who in a nice touch by the UFC is in attendance cageside with her family. Canada’s own Jerin Valel draws the referee assignment for this five-round title fight. Both fighters are in orthodox stance to open the fight. Bueno Silva throws a leg kick that glances, and Pennington rushes forward with a flurry of punches, backing the Brazilian up. Bueno Silva touches Pennington’s lead leg with a solid low kick. They engage again, and Pennington grabs hold of Bueno Silva and shoves her to the fence. Bueno Silva clasps her arms as Pennington throws a few short strikes. Bueno Silva breaks the clinch, and lands another hard calf kick. Pennington grabs a single-leg and tries to take Bueno Silva down, but Bueno Silva defends easily. Pennington goes for another quick single moments later, and they move to the fence. Bueno Silva takes Pennington’s back as she drags her to the canvas and quickly locks up a choke. Pennington fights the hands expertly, standing as she does so. Pennington breaks the grip to the point that she feels safe throwing elbow strikes to the thigh of Bueno Silva. Bueno Silva gives up on the choke and briefly loses back control as Pennington scrapes her against the chain-link, but hops back on her back and pulls her to a sitting position against the fence. She throws strikes from seated back control until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva

Round 2
Pennington comes forward with a triple jab, backing Bueno Silva up and dodging the first calf kick that comes her way. Bueno Silva throws another calf kick, backing Pennington to the fence as she does so, then uses underhooks to keep her there. Pennington throws knee up the middle, then another, and switches her hooks to reverse Bueno Silva against the fence. She lets Bueno Silva off the fence and tags her with three punches as she does so. Bueno Silva comes back with a single counter, but it’s a solid one. Bueno Silva clinches and puts Pennington back on the fence. They exchange knee strikes in close quarters. Bueno Silva tags Pennington with a pair of uppercuts to the body, and Pennington comes back across the top with a big punch to the head that rocks her. They get a little space and Pennington hits her with two more good shots to the head. Bueno Silva is hurt and goes staggering back to the fence. Pennington gives chase but ends up clinching, without enough space to follow up with more big shots. They disengage and fight a running battle all the way back across the cage, where Bueno Silva takes Pennington’s back once again and tries for the rear-naked choke. Pennington calmly defends, but again she is standing with Bueno Silva in back control. Bueno Silva loses the choke moments before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 3
Pennington scores first with a long overhand right. Bueno Silva lands two good right low kicks in succession. Pennington clinches and runs Bueno Silva to the fence, where the Brazilian promptly reverses her. Bueno Silva pushes her into the chain-link, looking to move to her back, but Pennington defends well and throws a knee to the body. Pennington takes the outside position. Bueno Silva uses a whizzer kick to toss Pennington to the ground, but Pennington kicks her off and sweeps to stand. Halfway through the round it’s Pennington driving Bueno Silva into the cage. Bueno Silva throws a knee to the body then reverses Pennington into the fence. The two would-be champs spend several long moments exchanging sporadic knees on the inside. Bueno Silva grabs a front headlock and briefly threatens, but Pennington escapes and tosses her to the canvas, ending up on top in half guard with an arm around the neck. Pennington gets up and Bueno Silva stays on the ground, suddenly looking very tired. She seems to want Pennington to go back into her guard, but Pennington is having none of it and Valel waves her up. The round expires a few moments later.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 4
Pennington steps right in a smashes Bueno Silva with a right overhand. She throws another pair of punches as Bueno Silva comes forward, looking for the clinch. Pennington quickly reverses her against the cage, but elects to stay there, throwing short punches—rather than disengage as her corner is loudly imploring her to do. Bueno Silva moves to try and take Pennington’s back against the cage. Pennington defends for a moment, but Bueno Silva persists and gets the position, then slaps on another rear-naked choke. It isn’t completely under the chin, and Pennington is turning red as she fights it off. She shrugs Bueno Silva partway off her back, but Bueno Silva continues to threaten with the choke even from the side. Finally, Pennington spins all the way into Bueno Silva’s guard at the base of the fence. She throws strikes as Bueno Silva throws her legs up for a possible triangle or armbar, but none of them are enough to really threaten, and Pennington keeps pouring on the punches and hammerfists. At the 30-second mark, Pennington postures up and comes down with a big hammerfist that draws a reaction from the Brazilian. The round ends a moment later, and Bueno Silva is slow to get up.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 5
Pennington is first off the blocks with a left and right hook. Bueno Silva swings back, advancing as she does so. Pennington seems motivated to deny her the clinch, especially against the cage, but Bueno Silva manages to get her there anyway. Bueno Silva tries for some kind of body lock, but bails on it and goes for a kneebar on her way down. There’s nothing doing there, and Pennington lands on top, sliding to mount as she locks up an arm-triangle choke. Bueno Silva is surviving just fine, as Pennington is in complete control of the position but apparently can’t get enough torque to finish the choke. Pennington moves out to one side without completely surrendering the mount, and Bueno Silva is slowly turning away from her. A minute and a half to go, and Pennington gives up the choke, settling in Bueno Silva’s half guard. Pennington pours on the punches as Bueno Silva clings to her, eyes closed, just hanging on. Valel looks on and Pennington stands out of guard, throwing kicks to the legs of her supine foe. Pennington dives in with a couple of big, but glancing punches right before the final horn. Barring a historically horrible judging gaffe, “Rocky” should be your new UFC women's bantamweight champion in about two minutes here.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Pennington (49-45 Pennington)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington (49-46 Pennington)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington (49-46 Pennington)

The Official Result
Raquel Pennington def. Mayra Bueno Silva via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Pennington, citing her experience, pressure, and control style. He acknowledges Bueno Silva's power and submissions but believes Pennington's grit and high-level experience will prevail. He has a quarter unit on Pennington at plus 135 and will monitor for better value. He notes the potential distraction of Pennington's eight-month-old baby.

Quarter unit bet at +135; may add more if value improves
"I'm going to go rockel Pennington she is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mayra Bueno Silva

Big Brady picks Silva, noting her submission skills are top-notch. He expects the fight to hit the mat at some point, where Silva will have the advantage. He thinks the striking will be close but Silva's forward pressure and durability will be key. He predicts a submission win for Silva.

submission
"give me Silva to win this fight and I guess she's going to become bantamweight champion"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mayra Bueno Silva

Cody picks Bueno Silva but is not confident, citing her submission threat and the fact that Pennington fights in the clinch where Silva caught Holly Holm. However, he worries about Silva's cardio and the lack of her ADHD medication (ritalinic acid) in a five-round fight. He sees Pennington as a live underdog but ultimately goes with Silva.

"I got Mayra Bueno Silva but there's a whole lot of red flags... the pick's going to be Bueno Silva."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mayra Bueno Silva

Vreeland picks Bueno Silva, analyzing her striking success against Holly Holm. He notes that Silva found the range against Holm and landed impactful strikes. He contrasts Pennington's lack of range kicks and long fighting style, which should allow Silva to close distance. Vreeland also mentions Silva's submission threat if Pennington shoots takedowns. He sees Silva overwhelming Pennington on the feet.

"I'm gonna go marro Buena Silva I think if you watch her fight with Holly Holm she was actually having some success in the Striking in finding the range of Holly Holm who's you know notoriously kind of hard to …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mayra Bueno Silva

Daniel Vreeland picks Mayra Bueno Silva to become the new bantamweight champion. He highlights her heavy power, devastating leg kicks, and finishing instinct, including the ninja choke. He expects her calf kicks to be effective against Pennington's stationary boxing style, and believes she will land the harder shots throughout the fight, possibly finishing or winning a decision.

"I'm picking maira Shara Bueno Silva to become the new UFC bantamweight champion"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mayra Bueno Silva

Fox picks Bueno Silva as the better fighter, but acknowledges Pennington's tendency to win. He notes Pennington's year-long layoff as a concern. Fox doesn't provide detailed technical analysis but defers to Silva's overall skill advantage.

"I'm taking Myra buo Silva as well just a better Fighter um it's hard though Pennington somehow she wins gumy she always wins so I can that could very easily happen here again but I think I'm going to take …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert pick date unknown

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host only covers the main event, co-main event (Weili Zhang vs Tatiana Suarez), and other fights, but not Pennington vs Bueno Silva.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mayra Bueno Silva

I'm leaning on Bueno Silva to win inside the distance, likely by submission. Pennington could be the busier fighter and win rounds with volume, but Bueno Silva has a finish-heavy style that can break and frustrate Pennington. I think Bueno Silva lands a shot that opens up a clinch and sub opportunity. I'm not taking the moneyline at -155; I prefer the inside distance prop. I'd be very surprised if Pennington finishes Bueno Silva.

inside distance, submission victory
"I'm going to say Bueno Sila inside the distance that will likely end up being a bet too but I think she wins this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Paul picks Pennington, emphasizing her experience in five-round fights, superior cardio, and wrestling. He notes Bueno Silva's submission threat but believes Pennington can avoid submissions and take over in later rounds. He also jokes about Silva missing her ADHD medication affecting her focus.

"I'm going to enact the CF dot model for this one... it's Pennington for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mayra Bueno Silva

The MMA Guru picks Mayra Bueno Silva, citing her higher finishing potential and submission ability. He notes her win over Holly Holm (though overturned) and her competitive fight with Manon Fiorot. He believes she will submit Pennington with a knee bar in round two.

submission via knee bar, round 2
"I'm going with Maya Bueno Silva over Raquel Pennington I think her finishing potential is just way higher than Raquel Pennington"
WIN vs Ketlen Vieira
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 64 of 152 42% 138 of 230 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:45
Ketlen Vieira 0 81 of 159 50% 104 of 184 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 23 of 71 32% 29 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Ketlen Vieira 0 27 of 58 46% 27 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Raquel Pennington 0 21 of 51 41% 42 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Ketlen Vieira 0 29 of 61 47% 32 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
3 Raquel Pennington 0 20 of 30 66% 67 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:04
Ketlen Vieira 0 25 of 40 62% 45 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 64 of 152 42% 41 of 122 5 of 10 18 of 20 56 of 143 8 of 9 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 81 of 159 50% 37 of 111 32 of 35 12 of 13 59 of 134 22 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 23 of 71 32% 15 of 58 3 of 7 5 of 6 21 of 69 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 27 of 58 46% 14 of 44 9 of 9 4 of 5 24 of 54 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 21 of 51 41% 10 of 39 2 of 3 9 of 9 19 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 29 of 61 47% 14 of 43 11 of 14 4 of 4 21 of 51 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 20 of 30 66% 16 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 5 16 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 25 of 40 62% 9 of 24 12 of 12 4 of 4 14 of 29 11 of 11 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raquel Pennington vs. Ketlen Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-115), Pennington (-105)

Round 1
In terms of pure rankings, no fight on the billing is more relevant than this fight that is not on the marquee. This women’s bantamweight pairing, one pitting the second-ranked Vieira (13-2, 7-2 UFC) against the no. 5 Pennington (14-8, 11-5 UFC), could have immediate title implications depending on how it plays out. One woman will take her first defeat in quite some time, and referee Chris Tognoni will be the first to know who that is. The ladies sportingly clap hands ahead of their important fight, and they are jittery and not ready to engage. At the 20-second mark, Pennington leaps forward with a superwoman punch, and Vieira backs her off with a solid right hand in response. Vieira walks through a low kick on the inside and a jab to the body so that she can swing a swatting left hook, but this misses the mark. The Brazilian whiffs on a big right as well, prompting Pennington to charge in with a stream of jabs. Vieira parries two looping strikes to catch “Rocky” with a short right hand on the way in. Pennington appears no worse for wear as she goes for another kick on the inside of the knee, and she ducks back when a big left hook whizzes past her face. Vieira grabs a charging Pennington to knee her right in the chest, and she sends her backpedaling with a clean right hand across the bow. Pennington slams her shin on the low calf of her opponent, and she fakes a second to draw an exaggerated reaction out of the Brazilian. Vieira snipes with a left hand to open a cut on the top of Pennington’s forehead, and she chains together a combination of punches and a low kick to keep Pennington guessing. Vieira absorbs a kick to the ribs as she closes the distance, and she reaches her foe with a left hook in a short salvo. Vieira paws out a trio of low kicks before lunging with a straight punch to the body, and Pennington answers with a similar punch before swinging a left hand at her. Vieira lands at the end of her left hook, and another superwoman punch from Pennington allows her to close the distance and tie the Brazilian up to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 2
The bantamweight contenders touch hands before re-engaging, and engage they do almost immediately, when Pennington coming out firing. Vieira answers with a counter left hook, as she measures this strike to draw ever closer to the mark. Vieira takes one on the chin to throw back two, and she has a handful of punches ricochet off the guard. Pennington connects with a heavy one-two, and Vieira blinks it out but cannot keep an advancing Pennington off of her. “Rocky” grabs hold of Vieira from behind, where she considers elevating the Brazilian to drop her on the mat, or otherwise force Vieira to carry her body weight. Vieira gets warned for bragging the fence, and she turns back around in the clinch and belts Pennington in the face with a stern elbow. Vieira opens up with a one-two, and she starts slugging it out with her opponent and gets marked up as well. The right side of Pennington’s face is growingly covered in blood, while Vieira’s mouth is also turning a brilliant shade of scarlet. Vieira spins Pennington around, and a knee from the former title challenger slams square into Vieira’s groin. Tognoni recognizes the foul as Vieira appears in clear pain, and the action is paused for about 45 seconds until they get back to it. Pennington starts off the initial aggressor, slinging a high kick and a few lancing punches while Vieira throws back in volume. Vieira gets off with a right hand, and Pennington replies in kind to snap the head back. Pennington nails her with another right over the top before latching on to the clinch and clubbing the body with a pair of knees. Pennington checks the clock when pinned to the fence – it reads about 58 seconds – and she tries with all her might to break off. When she cannot get out of the clinch, she settles for knee after unanswered knee to the chest and midsection. Vieira is sticking to her tightly without striking back, and Pennington remains the busier of the two with body shots. Vieira slithers around to the back with seconds to spare, and there is nothing to be had before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 3
The ladies double touch hands, hug and then bump fists again to start the last round. They immediately go for broke, with Pennington not wasting any time engaging and throwing hands. Pennington cracks Vieira with a superwoman punch, and Vieira answers with several speedy punches in response. The two close the distance and end up tied up, with Vieira pushing the former title challenger against the wall. Pennington grinds her elbow on the chin as Vieira stays close enough to not take many knees as she did the end of the last round. When Pennington sets up a Thai plum, Vieira disengages. Vieira resets and dings Pennington with a right hand, stringing together a few strikes before Pennington closes in to grab hold of her. They trade short single punches up close, and both try to attempt a throw or toss to change position. When neither succeed, Vieira spins her around in the tie-up, and Pennington looks for a Thai clinch again. This time, Pennington is able to score a knee before they separate, and Vieira leaps forward suddenly with a crushing elbow. Pennington takes it cleanly and tries to escape, so Vieira follows her and nails her with another before snagging here again up close. Vieira targets elbows, and Pennington rips the body with a knee. When in the clinch, Vieira slips around to nearly take the back, and she knees the thigh while Pennington punches her from over her own shoulder. Vieira looks to elevate Pennington, but she cannot throw her as Pennington’s base is too solid. Vieira stays clung to her adversary right to the bitter end, and the judges have their hands full with this one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)

The Official Result
Raquel Pennington def. Ketlen Vieira via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ketlen Vieira

Angelo picks Vieira, citing her size, power, and Judo. He thinks she will be busier in the clinch and work off the cage, making Pennington look boring. He acknowledges Pennington's toughness but believes Vieira's recent win over Holly Holm and physical advantages will secure a decision. He is willing to bet on her.

"I like Caitlin to win this fight I think minus 117 I actually think that's good money on her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Ketlen Vieira

Big Brady picks Ketlen Vieira but is not confident, calling it his least favorite fight on the card. He sees Vieira having a grappling advantage if she gets on top, but notes she often does nothing with control time, as seen in fights against Yana Kunitskaya and Holly Holm. He also acknowledges Pennington's clinch work and ability to push Vieira against the cage. He predicts a close, ugly decision that judges might get wrong, and he will not bet on the fight.

Not betting on this fight; Vieira by decision
"I'm gonna stick with with Vera though I don't love it I will not be betting on this fight but I will pick Viera to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Cody leans slightly towards Pennington, noting her striking output against Aspen Ladd and potential bulldog choke. He sees it as a close fight and prefers to bet it live after seeing who is stronger in the clinch.

"I'll lean ever so slightly to Rocky Pennington... but uh no way I'm getting money invested in it early"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ketlen Vieira

Connor picks Vieira because she is physically stronger and more powerful, and has a wrestling advantage that can neutralize Pennington's boxing. He notes that Pennington often gets taken down at least once per fight, and Vieira's clinch work and top control can sway judges. Connor also mentions that Vieira showed renewed confidence against Holly Holm, throwing off her back foot and in clinches.

Odds: Vieira opened -145, jumped to -105, currently -123. Pennington opened +125, jumped to -112, currently +101. Connor expects a split decision either way.
"I'm going to pick her here. ... Vieira is more she's more powerful. She's she's the bigger hitter and at least the little bit of confidence renewed confidence. She showed against home to at least throw off her back foot …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ketlen Vieira

Connor also picks Vieira, agreeing that she has improved and has more options. He notes that Pennington has power and patience, which could create opportunities, but Vieira's grappling and overall game should prevail. Connor mentions that Pennington has made herself interesting but Vieira is the better fighter.

"I'm gonna take you banks as well but uh yeah I you know it I would I will be interested to see if if cash aware I can win a fight like this"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Jacob picks Pennington, calling Vieira overrated and Pennington underrated. He argues Pennington's recent wins are more impressive and she is the better overall fighter. He notes Vieira's split decision losses and that Pennington's clinch control and striking looked sharp. He is confident enough to bet $100 against Angelo.

Bet $100 with Angelo
"I'll pick Rocky in this fight I think she's the better fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Ketlen Vieira

Paul leans towards Vieira, citing her size and recent five-round experience. He expects a clinch-heavy fight and thinks Vieira may get the better of it, but admits he has low confidence and sees it as a pass or live-bet situation.

"the official pick will be Kellen Vieira but it's like you know there's Fighters that you can trust... I couldn't tell you"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Zane picks Pennington because she has steadily improved her boxing and showed excellent counter-punching against Aspen Ladd. He notes that Pennington is a solid defensive wrestler who doesn't give up much even when taken down, and that she makes good decisions as the fight goes on. Zane also points out that Vieira's striking has become overly cautious since her knockout loss, relying on clinch work rather than developing her forward striking.

Odds: Vieira opened -145, jumped to -105, currently -123. Pennington opened +125, jumped to -112, currently +101. Zane expects a close fight and thinks Pennington's technical acumen could earn her a decision.
"I'm going to take Pennington though. ... Pennington is just she is a very solid defensive wrestling grappler even when she gets surprised by somebody's strength or you know gets put in a bad position. She doesn't give a lot …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ketlen Vieira

Zane picks Vieira, noting that she has shown improvements in tactical depth and technique over her last few fights. He believes she has too many options and has gotten better at connecting phases of her game, defense, and counterpunching. However, he worries about her last fight against Melissa Gatto where she couldn't finish and got reversed. He still thinks she should be a lock to win.

Odds mentioned: Vieira opened at -160, currently -248; Pennington opened at +140, currently +200.
"I'm gonna take you banks as well but uh yeah I you know it I would I will be interested to see if if cash aware I can win a fight like this"
WIN vs Aspen Ladd
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 65 of 160 40% 102 of 199 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:56
Aspen Ladd 0 114 of 195 58% 136 of 218 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 20 of 60 33% 25 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Aspen Ladd 0 40 of 74 54% 40 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Raquel Pennington 0 26 of 68 38% 28 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aspen Ladd 0 49 of 82 59% 52 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
3 Raquel Pennington 0 19 of 32 59% 49 of 64 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:56
Aspen Ladd 0 25 of 39 64% 44 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 65 of 160 40% 37 of 118 21 of 34 7 of 8 52 of 145 13 of 15 0 of 0
Aspen Ladd 114 of 195 58% 57 of 133 47 of 52 10 of 10 89 of 166 25 of 29 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 20 of 60 33% 13 of 48 6 of 11 1 of 1 20 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aspen Ladd 40 of 74 54% 24 of 56 12 of 14 4 of 4 36 of 70 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 26 of 68 38% 19 of 53 2 of 10 5 of 5 23 of 63 3 of 5 0 of 0
Aspen Ladd 49 of 82 59% 29 of 60 20 of 22 0 of 0 42 of 74 7 of 8 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 19 of 32 59% 5 of 17 13 of 13 1 of 2 9 of 22 10 of 10 0 of 0
Aspen Ladd 25 of 39 64% 4 of 17 15 of 16 6 of 6 11 of 22 14 of 17 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Aspen Ladd

Angelo picks Aspen Ladd, citing her toughness and 'dog' mentality. He thinks Pennington's style of cage pressure and control won't work against Ladd's refusal to be bullied. He notes Ladd's power and wrestling, and says this is a no-bet situation.

No bet situation.
"i think i like aspen ladd here i think i like aspen ladd honestly the dog in her not accepting the bully the positions from raquel pennington i think aspen lad gets this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington to win by decision. He notes Pennington has solid takedown defense and should keep the fight on the feet, where she can outstrike Ladd. Ladd looked terrible in her last fight against Norma Dumont, landing only 3 strikes in the first round. Brady thinks Ladd's path to victory is takedowns, but Pennington is strong and physical enough to stuff them.

"give me rocky pennington to win and give me her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Aspen Ladd

Cody also leans Ladd, but emphasizes the weight cut risk. He notes Pennington's recent wins are over low-level opponents and that she has been taken down by her last three foes. Cody thinks Ladd's top game will be decisive if she makes weight. He plans to watch weigh-ins before betting, and is interested in the under if Ladd looks drained.

under 2.5 rounds +240
"the value side would be aspen lad for me but more interested in uh watching the weigh-ins"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Levi sees Raquel Pennington as the more well-rounded fighter with takedowns and a grinding style. He worries about Aspen Ladd's top pressure and ground-and-pound, but thinks Pennington's takedown defense and experience against top competition (including Amanda Nunes) will allow her to mix strikes and takedowns. He expects a decision win for Pennington, though he is not rushing to bet at -190.

"the more well-rounded fighter here no questions asked is rocky pennington"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Aspen Ladd

I think we'll see a better version of Aspen Ladd than last time. She should be able to push Pennington against the cage, drag her to the floor, and have success with ground and pound. Pennington struggles when fights hit the mat. Ladd will grind out a decision victory.

"I think we're going to see a better version of Aspen Ladd than we did last time... I think we see Ladd grind her out and eventually get a decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Aspen Ladd

Paul leans towards Ladd as an underdog but conditions it on her making weight. He notes Pennington's takedown defense is weak and that Ladd has ferocious ground and pound. Paul thinks if Ladd gets top position, she'll smash Pennington. He also considers the under 2.5 rounds if Ladd looks bad at weigh-ins. He calls Ladd his first underdog pick of the card.

under 2.5 rounds +240
"this is gonna be my first underdog pick of the card aspen lad yeah she's my baby"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington, criticizing Aspen Ladd's lack of grit and poor performance in her last fight. He expects Pennington to push the pace and win a 30-27 decision, noting that Ladd has changed her style since being KO'd and no longer leads the dance.

"i am going to be going with raquel pennington here getting the job done over aspen lad"
WIN vs Macy Chiasson
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 3:07 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 45 of 79 56% 61 of 95 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:09
Macy Chiasson 0 26 of 86 30% 64 of 126 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 24 of 38 63% 37 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Macy Chiasson 0 15 of 48 31% 48 of 83 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
2 Raquel Pennington 0 21 of 41 51% 24 of 44 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:38
Macy Chiasson 0 11 of 38 28% 16 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 45 of 79 56% 22 of 48 20 of 28 3 of 3 38 of 71 7 of 8 0 of 0
Macy Chiasson 26 of 86 30% 16 of 65 9 of 18 1 of 3 22 of 79 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 24 of 38 63% 10 of 21 11 of 14 3 of 3 21 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0
Macy Chiasson 15 of 48 31% 11 of 39 4 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 45 1 of 2 1 of 1
2 Raquel Pennington 21 of 41 51% 12 of 27 9 of 14 0 of 0 17 of 36 4 of 5 0 of 0
Macy Chiasson 11 of 38 28% 5 of 26 5 of 9 1 of 3 9 of 34 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes that Pennington is a grinder who uses cage control and pressure, but that Macy Chiasson uses her reach well and has good Muay Thai. He believes the small cage at the Apex may limit Chiasson's ability to circle, but still sees Chiasson as a live underdog. Angelo expects a boring win for Pennington but not a cakewalk.

"i think raquel is able to crowd pressure and work her way to a pretty boring win but this is not a cakewalk"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Macy Chiasson

Big Brady initially liked Pennington but changed his pick after learning the fight is at 145 lbs, which he believes massively favors Chiasson. He notes Chiasson's size, youth, and experience at featherweight, and expects her to use her height and reach to win a close decision. He mentions Pennington's takedown ability but thinks the weight class change is decisive.

decision
"I'm going to say macy chazon comes out here uses her height her reach her size and wins a very close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Macy Chiasson

Cody likes Chiasson as a dog, noting the fight is at 145 lbs which favors her. He points out that Pennington has looked disinterested since her title fight and has poor striking. Chiasson is bigger, stronger, and has better striking at range and in the clinch. Cody thinks Chiasson can win by outworking Pennington.

"I think this is a dog selection here I think I think macy chase on is live in the spot and she could get the job done so I'll uh I'll take missy jason"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Raquel Pennington. He praises Pennington's grit, durability, and experience, noting she only loses to former champions. However, he points out that many of Pennington's wins are split decisions, making it a close fight. Levi is concerned about Chiasson's size and reach advantage at 145, and wonders if Pennington's clinch game will be less effective against a taller opponent. He thinks Chiasson could win if she has improved, but ultimately picks Pennington to edge out a decision.

Pennington by split decision; fight goes to decision
"I do lean Pennington but I mean if someone wants to take a shot on Chiasson and hope for that split decision I can't sit here talk you off of it."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Macy Chiasson

Jacob picks Macy Chiasson, believing the UFC is setting her up to be a contender. He thinks the fight comes down to clinch work, and that Chiasson is bigger, more physical, and nastier than Pennington at this point. He expects Chiasson to win a dirty decision, possibly with a finish. Jacob notes that Chiasson has never been finished and has finishing ability herself.

"i think she's a little even more nastier than raquel at this point in her career i think she's hungry i think she knows she's close to getting those big big fights"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

The host picks Pennington by decision, citing her well-rounded game and experience. He notes that Chiasson relies on being physical and bullying, but if she can't do that, she succumbs. He expects Pennington to pull away in the later rounds and win a 15-minute fight. He likes the decision prop at +115.

Pennington by decision (+115)
"I'm liking uh penguin by decision at plus 115. i do think she'll grand alchemists on over over 15 minutes here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Macy Chiasson

Paul agrees with Chiasson, citing the reach advantage and the weight class change. He notes Pennington isn't big for 135, let alone 145, and Chiasson doesn't have to cut much weight. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and leans Chiasson.

"I'm with you as well I think like five and a half inch reach rocky isn't exactly too big for 135 pounds let alone 145 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Macy Chiasson, citing Pennington's physical strength and ability to bully Chiasson against the cage. He notes Pennington has good wins over Pannie Kianzad, Marion Reneau, and Irene Aldana. He was not impressed by Chiasson's performance against Reneau. He thinks Pennington is too strong and will control the fight.

"i'm going to go over raquel pennington here over mesa chasson"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 50 of 98 51% 85 of 144 1 of 2 50% 0 0 5:34
Pannie Kianzad 0 48 of 79 60% 98 of 144 1 of 3 33% 0 0 6:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:24
Pannie Kianzad 0 8 of 12 66% 25 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:20
2 Raquel Pennington 0 10 of 17 58% 21 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
Pannie Kianzad 0 12 of 18 66% 34 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
3 Raquel Pennington 0 28 of 62 45% 43 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:15
Pannie Kianzad 0 28 of 49 57% 39 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 50 of 98 51% 26 of 68 20 of 25 4 of 5 13 of 50 37 of 48 0 of 0
Pannie Kianzad 48 of 79 60% 26 of 56 17 of 18 5 of 5 23 of 49 23 of 28 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 12 of 19 63% 3 of 7 8 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 3 12 of 16 0 of 0
Pannie Kianzad 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 5 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 5 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 10 of 17 58% 7 of 14 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 6 of 7 0 of 0
Pannie Kianzad 12 of 18 66% 7 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 11 3 of 5 2 of 2
3 Raquel Pennington 28 of 62 45% 16 of 47 9 of 11 3 of 4 9 of 37 19 of 25 0 of 0
Pannie Kianzad 28 of 49 57% 16 of 36 8 of 9 4 of 4 15 of 33 13 of 16 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington because she will march forward, hold Pannie against the cage, and neutralize her boxing. He notes that Pennington's losses are to current/former champions and that she is a boring but effective grappler. He likes the -132 odds and thinks they will move. He is confident Pennington stifles Pannie's combinations.

Less on Pannie Kianzad's strike line (115.5)
"raquel pennington is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her superior level of competition and ability to grind against the cage. He notes Kianzad was outstruck by Alexis Davis and has shown vulnerability to wrestling. He predicts a decision win for Pennington, though he wishes the price were better and likely won't bet it.

"i'm going to take pennington to win um don't love the price to be honest"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Pannie Kianzad

Cody picks Kianzad as a slight underdog, citing her better striking and improved takedown defense. He notes that Pennington is a grinder but has looked mentally off in recent fights. Cody believes Kianzad can keep the fight at range and outwork Pennington.

"i would classify this one as a dog or pass situation and again you do have chianzan as that plus 110 underdogs so gonna go ahead"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Levi leans with Raquel Pennington. He calls Kianzad an overachiever and thinks Pennington's record is misleading because she has fought the best. He sees similar boxing-centric styles but gives the edge to Pennington, expecting a close decision. He notes he usually likes to dog close decisions but here he leans with Pennington.

"i'm gonna go with rocky pennington here maybe a close decision and oftentimes on close decisions i like to dog but on this one i'm leaning with rocky pennington to to win the decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Preet picks Pennington because she is good at everything and has better cardio and forward pressure. He thinks Kianzad is a better technical striker but Pennington will nullify her with clinch work and takedowns. He expects a decision and likes the fight goes to decision at +125.

Fight goes to decision +125
"I like Pennington in this fight I'm kind of you know I'm kind of surprised how much I like her here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Pannie Kianzad

Paul agrees with taking Kianzad at plus money, noting that Pennington's style could lead to a close decision. He thinks Kianzad's volume and range striking give her an edge, but acknowledges the smaller cage may favor Pennington's grinding.

"if it's gonna be that close you take the plus money i guess in those spots so i'll i'll follow you along on that one panty cans at plus 110"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Pannie Kianzad

The MMA Guru picks Pannie Kianzad over Raquel Pennington, praising Kianzad's fundamentals, dirty boxing, and recent form. He questions Pennington's motivation and activity, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision for Kianzad.

"i'm going to go with pani kian's ad here"
WIN vs Marion Reneau
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 107 of 154 69% 118 of 165 1 of 2 50% 0 1 5:29
Marion Reneau 0 46 of 117 39% 81 of 154 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 23 of 36 63% 25 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:24
Marion Reneau 0 17 of 52 32% 24 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
2 Raquel Pennington 0 37 of 50 74% 41 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:15
Marion Reneau 0 13 of 29 44% 35 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:38
3 Raquel Pennington 0 47 of 68 69% 52 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:50
Marion Reneau 0 16 of 36 44% 22 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 107 of 154 69% 54 of 97 46 of 50 7 of 7 51 of 93 52 of 56 4 of 5
Marion Reneau 46 of 117 39% 20 of 85 20 of 25 6 of 7 22 of 84 24 of 33 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 23 of 36 63% 9 of 22 12 of 12 2 of 2 11 of 23 12 of 13 0 of 0
Marion Reneau 17 of 52 32% 8 of 39 6 of 9 3 of 4 7 of 37 10 of 15 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 37 of 50 74% 15 of 27 20 of 21 2 of 2 14 of 24 19 of 21 4 of 5
Marion Reneau 13 of 29 44% 5 of 21 6 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 15 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 47 of 68 69% 30 of 48 14 of 17 3 of 3 26 of 46 21 of 22 0 of 0
Marion Reneau 16 of 36 44% 7 of 25 8 of 10 1 of 1 12 of 32 4 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington by decision, believing she is the better striker and that the fight will stay on the feet. He notes Pennington's superior competition and Reneau's age (42). He thinks Reneau's only path to victory is a submission, which he doesn't see happening. He is pretty confident and thinks the line could be wider.

odds: Pennington minus 150, Reneau plus 125; pick by decision
"I like Pennington here I like her to win I think she's more you know the better fighter on the feet"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Marion Reneau

Daniel Levi picks Marion Reneau as an underdog, arguing that the line should be closer to a pick 'em. He notes that Raquel Pennington is average and doesn't land many takedowns, while Reneau has decent hands and can win a close decision. Levi believes Reneau has a chance to win a split decision, especially on her 43rd birthday.

"I'm actually going to go on the opposite end and take a Marion Reneau to get it done on her 43rd birthday."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Pennington is boring but has experience against better opponents. Reneau is 42 years old and coming off a loss to Jessica Eye, which indicates she is past her prime. Pennington will get the job done, though it may be a dull fight.

"Raquel Pennington is gonna beat Marion Reneau Marion Reneau is 42 years of age she's at losses she lost a Jessica aya which now tells me that she is absolute [ __ ] dog shits"
LOSS vs Holly Holm
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 30 of 62 48% 81 of 129 0 of 3 0% 0 0 7:16
Raquel Pennington 0 38 of 78 48% 55 of 95 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 6 of 12 50% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:48
Raquel Pennington 0 5 of 14 35% 7 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
2 Holly Holm 0 9 of 17 52% 32 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:07
Raquel Pennington 0 19 of 27 70% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Holly Holm 0 15 of 33 45% 23 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:21
Raquel Pennington 0 14 of 37 37% 20 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 30 of 62 48% 12 of 33 9 of 18 9 of 11 20 of 50 10 of 12 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 38 of 78 48% 9 of 43 27 of 30 2 of 5 10 of 46 28 of 32 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 6 of 12 50% 2 of 5 2 of 3 2 of 4 3 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 5 of 14 35% 1 of 8 3 of 3 1 of 3 2 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 9 of 17 52% 2 of 8 5 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 9 6 of 8 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 19 of 27 70% 3 of 10 15 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 9 17 of 18 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 15 of 33 45% 8 of 20 2 of 8 5 of 5 14 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 14 of 37 37% 5 of 25 9 of 11 0 of 1 6 of 26 8 of 11 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

Daniel picks Raquel Pennington to edge out a close decision. He notes that Pennington is the more active fighter moving forward and that Holm has gone 4-5 since their first fight while Pennington is 5-2. He also mentions that Pennington is younger at 31 vs Holm pushing 40.

"I will take Raquel to edge out a very close decision this time just by being the more active fighter that's moving forward the entire time."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Holly Holm

The host is confident in Holly Holm, having already placed 2.5 units at -122. He believes Holm won the first fight easily and that her counter-striking, fight IQ, and power left head kick will be too much for Pennington. He argues that Holm is better at getting off the cage and landing damaging shots, while Pennington's forward movement plays into Holm's game. He dismisses concerns about Holm's recent record, noting she lost to elite fighters, and sees Pennington as a step below.

2.5 units at -122; might sprinkle another unit if line improves.
"I have 2.5 units on Holly Holm"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raquel Pennington

The host picks Raquel Pennington, citing her thickness and ability to take damage, as seen in her performance against Amanda Nunes. He criticizes Holly Holm's damage-taking ability and age (38), suggesting her prime is over. He predicts Pennington wins by decision.

decision
"Raquel Pennington is gonna get a job done here I'll be honest with you guys I like her damage taking ability I don't like Holly Holm's damage taking ability whatsoever"
Roxanne Modafferi - Fight History
LOSS vs Casey O'Neill
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey O'Neill 0 120 of 358 33% 148 of 390 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:06
Roxanne Modafferi 0 229 of 393 58% 230 of 395 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey O'Neill 0 44 of 135 32% 44 of 135 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roxanne Modafferi 0 72 of 130 55% 72 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Casey O'Neill 0 35 of 118 29% 40 of 123 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Roxanne Modafferi 0 86 of 142 60% 86 of 142 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Casey O'Neill 0 41 of 105 39% 64 of 132 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:01
Roxanne Modafferi 0 71 of 121 58% 72 of 123 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey O'Neill 120 of 358 33% 98 of 330 20 of 25 2 of 3 112 of 347 8 of 11 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 229 of 393 58% 187 of 348 22 of 25 20 of 20 225 of 387 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey O'Neill 44 of 135 32% 40 of 129 3 of 4 1 of 2 44 of 135 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 72 of 130 55% 55 of 111 7 of 9 10 of 10 72 of 130 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Casey O'Neill 35 of 118 29% 28 of 109 6 of 8 1 of 1 34 of 117 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 86 of 142 60% 73 of 129 7 of 7 6 of 6 84 of 140 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Casey O'Neill 41 of 105 39% 30 of 92 11 of 13 0 of 0 34 of 95 7 of 10 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 71 of 121 58% 59 of 108 8 of 9 4 of 4 69 of 117 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Casey O'Neill

Angelo is very confident in O'Neill, calling her too good everywhere. He expects a dominant one-sided decision win, noting Modafferi's toughness but lack of athleticism. He mentions a parlay with Ronnie Lawrence and a potential prop bet on O'Neill by decision.

parlay with Ronnie Lawrence at -110, 2 units; Casey O'Neill by decision prop
"i see a dominant one-sided decision win for casey o'neill and my favorite parlay on this card is a casey o'neill and ronnie lawrence parley i already threw two units on that and i got it at -110"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady acknowledges O'Neill's poor striking defense but believes she can take down Modafferi at will due to Modafferi's 25% takedown defense. He thinks O'Neill will control the fight on the ground and win a decision. He notes Modafferi is retiring and 39 years old, and while she is tough and has good BJJ defense, he doesn't see her winning. Brady picks O'Neill by decision.

O'Neill by decision
"i think o'neil can take down roxy whenever she wants... write out a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Casey O'Neill

Cody agrees, highlighting O'Neill's youth, improving skills, and physical strength. He notes Modafferi's takedown defense is poor and that O'Neill can dictate where the fight goes. He sees this as a passing of the torch.

"this is a passing of the torch so to speak"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Casey O'Neill

Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill by decision. He acknowledges Modafferi's toughness and black belt in jiu-jitsu, but notes that O'Neill's pace and grappling pressure will be too much. Levi does not expect a finish because Modafferi has not been finished since 2013. He also mentions that Modafferi's retirement mindset may affect her performance.

"just give me casey o'neill will be a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Casey O'Neill

O'Neill is the younger, more explosive fighter, but Modafferi is durable and has good grappling. O'Neill has shown vulnerabilities in being taken down and controlled, which is Modafferi's strength. Modafferi hasn't been finished in over a decade. O'Neill should eventually get the TKO in the later rounds, but the odds are too wide. This is a no-play for betting.

O'Neill by TKO in round 2 or 3; no bet advised
"i'm still picking quest here i'm she's going to be my prediction but i would not advise getting trigger happy on parlaying her in every single spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Casey O'Neill

Paul thinks O'Neill's pressure and grappling will be too much for Modafferi. He notes Modafferi has been taken down frequently in recent fights and that O'Neill is strong and relentless. He expects a decision win for O'Neill, possibly a finish.

Casey O'Neill by decision
"i think she's a rifle favorite here with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Casey O'Neill

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill by second-round ground-and-pound TKO. He criticizes Modafferi's striking and chin, and believes O'Neill's hunger and grappling will overwhelm the retiring veteran.

second round ground and pound tko
"i'm going to be going with casey o'neil here"
LOSS vs Taila Santos
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Taila Santos 0 18 of 92 19% 43 of 124 0 of 4 0% 0 0 3:02
Roxanne Modafferi 1 55 of 95 57% 118 of 164 5 of 5 100% 0 0 8:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Taila Santos 0 6 of 24 25% 19 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:17
Roxanne Modafferi 0 18 of 30 60% 35 of 50 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:50
2 Taila Santos 0 4 of 12 33% 14 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:30
Roxanne Modafferi 0 9 of 17 52% 34 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:49
3 Taila Santos 0 8 of 56 14% 10 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Roxanne Modafferi 1 28 of 48 58% 49 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Taila Santos 18 of 92 19% 13 of 85 2 of 3 3 of 4 16 of 90 2 of 2 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 55 of 95 57% 38 of 75 8 of 11 9 of 9 40 of 72 8 of 9 7 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Taila Santos 6 of 24 25% 3 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 18 of 30 60% 10 of 21 7 of 8 1 of 1 9 of 20 8 of 9 1 of 1
2 Taila Santos 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 9 of 17 52% 6 of 12 0 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 4
3 Taila Santos 8 of 56 14% 6 of 53 1 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 28 of 48 58% 22 of 42 1 of 1 5 of 5 24 of 39 0 of 0 4 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Taila Santos

Angelo picks Santos, highlighting her athleticism, boxing, and fight IQ. He notes she can adjust game plans, as seen in her fight against Molly McCann where she took her down five times. Angelo believes Santos is better everywhere and will cruise to a decision, as Modafferi is tough to finish.

Angelo suggests Santos by decision prop. He also mentions the plus three and a half points bet for Modafferi and wins inside the distance decision no action for Modafferi at +200.
"Taylor Santos is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Taila Santos

Big Brady picks Taila Santos to win by dominant decision. He emphasizes that Santos is a completely different fighter from her debut, having dominated Molly McCann and Gillian Robertson. He sees Santos as younger, stronger, and better everywhere, with no clear path to victory for Modafferi. He warns against betting on Modafferi based on Santos' first fight.

"tawa santos is the real deal you know she's somebody to definitely look out for"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Roxanne Modafferi

Cody leans towards Modafferi as a value play, noting her durability, grit, and history of cashing as an underdog. He acknowledges Santos' strength and crisp striking but questions her cardio and the wide price. He is hesitant due to Modafferi's age and torn meniscus.

"value is value and i think the value is squarely on roxanne at plus 310"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Taila Santos

Daniel Levi picks Taila Santos but is hesitant due to her previous performance against Mara Borella where she refused to throw. He notes that Santos should win dominantly but is concerned about her tendency to freeze, especially with fans returning. He respects Roxanne Modafferi's toughness and ability to upset, but believes Santos is the superior fighter. He advises against betting the -400 line.

betting advice: not laying -400
"all that said give me the superior fighter give me tyler santos is just please don't pull a stun here like please perform to the best of your abilities and you'll win this fight period"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean pick date unknown
Roxanne Modafferi

Jacob picks Modafferi by submission, following her pattern of alternating wins and losses. He feels this is a fight where Modafferi shouldn't win but will find a way. He notes Santos lacks killer instinct and thinks a weird scramble could lead to a submission.

Jacob says he'll take a small flyer on Modafferi by submission at +1200. He also mentions the plus three and a half points bet.
"I'm gonna put a wild weird bet on rockstein by submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Taila Santos

The host picks Taila Santos to win via decision. He believes Santos is a much better striker with improving takedown defense and get-up ability. He expects Santos to pick Modafferi apart from distance and pass her takedown defense test. He notes Modafferi's durability but thinks Santos is on the ascent while Modafferi is on the decline.

Santos by decision at -130
"i am gonna go with tyler santos and i'll pick her to win this fight via decision hit that minus one thirty i like it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert pick date unknown

Paul does not have a clear pick. He finds Santos' price too high and is wary of Modafferi's injury and age. He considers Modafferi at plus money but is not confident. He will watch weigh-ins before deciding.

"i can't bet taylor at this price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Taila Santos

The MMA Guru picks Taila Santos over Roxanne Modafferi, citing Modafferi's age and lack of improvement. He notes that Santos is young, well-rounded, and has a good ground game, which should prevent Modafferi from laying in half guard. He expects Santos to win a unanimous decision, as Modafferi is tough but not skilled enough. He mentions that Santos' win over Molly McCann looks better now, and that Modafferi has over 40 fights but still looks lost.

"i'm going to go with taylor santos here by unanimous decision over rocks and motor fairing"
LOSS vs Viviane Araújo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 46 of 184 25% 49 of 193 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:39
Roxanne Modafferi 0 86 of 198 43% 100 of 214 4 of 4 100% 1 0 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 12 of 61 19% 12 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Roxanne Modafferi 0 34 of 77 44% 37 of 82 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:27
2 Viviane Araújo 0 21 of 71 29% 23 of 73 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Roxanne Modafferi 0 32 of 73 43% 37 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
3 Viviane Araújo 0 13 of 52 25% 14 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Roxanne Modafferi 0 20 of 48 41% 26 of 54 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 46 of 184 25% 40 of 177 2 of 3 4 of 4 45 of 181 1 of 3 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 86 of 198 43% 79 of 187 5 of 8 2 of 3 85 of 192 1 of 2 0 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 12 of 61 19% 10 of 59 1 of 1 1 of 1 12 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 34 of 77 44% 30 of 69 3 of 6 1 of 2 34 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Viviane Araújo 21 of 71 29% 18 of 68 0 of 0 3 of 3 21 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 32 of 73 43% 30 of 71 1 of 1 1 of 1 32 of 71 0 of 1 0 of 1
3 Viviane Araújo 13 of 52 25% 12 of 50 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 50 1 of 2 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 20 of 48 41% 19 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Viviane Araújo

Big Brady calls this a disaster matchup for Roxanne Modafferi. He praises Viviane Araújo's BJJ black belt and believes she is the better striker. He notes Modafferi's low takedown accuracy and Araújo's 92% takedown defense. He predicts a decision win for Araújo, saying Modafferi's path to victory is unlikely. He warns against betting on Modafferi based on past upsets, calling it chasing.

Araújo by decision
"i think this is an absolute disaster of a matchup for roxanne mona ferry"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Viviane Araújo

The host believes Viviane Araújo's crisp striking and ability to avoid clinch positions will be key against Roxanne Modafferi's grappling. He notes Araújo's improvements in getting out of bad positions and her speed advantage. He predicts a decision win for Araújo, but also sees value in her winning inside the distance at +280.

Viviane Araújo inside the distance at +280
"i'll go with arujo i'll go by a decision but i do think plus 280 for her to win inside the distance is worth a little bit of a stab"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Viviane Araújo

The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo, expressing confusion over Modafferi's success. He criticizes Modafferi's skills and believes Araújo has better grappling and striking. He predicts a 30-27 decision win for Araújo.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm going to go with vivian arawajo getting the job done she's a little bit smaller i think she wins by decision 30 27"
WIN vs Andrea Lee
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Sep 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi 0 60 of 169 35% 129 of 267 4 of 7 57% 0 0 4:49
Andrea Lee 0 97 of 189 51% 118 of 210 3 of 4 75% 0 2 1:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roxanne Modafferi 0 12 of 27 44% 54 of 80 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:12
Andrea Lee 0 14 of 33 42% 21 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:20
2 Roxanne Modafferi 0 29 of 83 34% 30 of 90 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:28
Andrea Lee 0 55 of 94 58% 62 of 101 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:13
3 Roxanne Modafferi 0 19 of 59 32% 45 of 97 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:09
Andrea Lee 0 28 of 62 45% 35 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roxanne Modafferi 60 of 169 35% 56 of 162 2 of 5 2 of 2 57 of 165 0 of 1 3 of 3
Andrea Lee 97 of 189 51% 50 of 128 23 of 36 24 of 25 89 of 178 5 of 8 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roxanne Modafferi 12 of 27 44% 11 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 3
Andrea Lee 14 of 33 42% 3 of 20 5 of 6 6 of 7 10 of 28 2 of 3 2 of 2
2 Roxanne Modafferi 29 of 83 34% 28 of 81 0 of 1 1 of 1 29 of 82 0 of 1 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 55 of 94 58% 35 of 71 12 of 15 8 of 8 52 of 89 2 of 4 1 of 1
3 Roxanne Modafferi 19 of 59 32% 17 of 55 1 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 28 of 62 45% 12 of 37 6 of 15 10 of 10 27 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Andrea Lee

Big Brady picks Andrea Lee, stating she is better everywhere and more skilled. He notes that Modafferi's path to victory is takedowns, but Lee has decent ground game and get-up ability. He finds it sketchy due to women's MMA and Lee's 61% takedown defense, but expects Lee to win by decision.

"andrea lee should win this fight she's better everywhere she's way more skilled"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Andrea Lee

The host is confident Lee's superior striking and movement will be too much for Modafferi, who is rudimentary on the feet and relies on takedowns. He notes Lee has good jiu-jitsu to defend submissions and expects her to win by decision or possibly a late TKO. He considers Lee one of his strongest leans on the card and worth the -310 price.

Lee by second round TKO; inside the distance prop if value
"I really like her in this spot um you know obviously totally worth the minus 300 this line that she's currently at"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Andrea Lee

The MMA Guru picks Andrea Lee, being very critical of Roxanne Modafferi's skills, calling her 'terrible' and saying she doesn't look like she trains MMA. He notes that Lee outstruck Lauren Murphy in her last fight and should have won, while Murphy clearly beat Modafferi. He expects Lee to stuff takedowns and out-strike Modafferi to a unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with andrea lee getting the job done unanimous decision barely out striking roxanne motor fairy every round"
LOSS vs Lauren Murphy
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 44 of 174 25% 71 of 206 0 of 1 0% 0 1 4:08
Roxanne Modafferi 0 72 of 158 45% 92 of 178 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 12 of 54 22% 18 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:14
Roxanne Modafferi 0 19 of 48 39% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lauren Murphy 0 10 of 45 22% 20 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:44
Roxanne Modafferi 0 23 of 48 47% 36 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
3 Lauren Murphy 0 22 of 75 29% 33 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Roxanne Modafferi 0 30 of 62 48% 34 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 44 of 174 25% 34 of 152 5 of 15 5 of 7 39 of 163 5 of 11 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 72 of 158 45% 46 of 127 8 of 12 18 of 19 65 of 150 3 of 3 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 12 of 54 22% 9 of 46 1 of 5 2 of 3 11 of 51 1 of 3 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 19 of 48 39% 11 of 36 0 of 4 8 of 8 19 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 10 of 45 22% 8 of 37 2 of 7 0 of 1 9 of 41 1 of 4 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 23 of 48 47% 13 of 37 5 of 5 5 of 6 18 of 42 3 of 3 2 of 3
3 Lauren Murphy 22 of 75 29% 17 of 69 2 of 3 3 of 3 19 of 71 3 of 4 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 30 of 62 48% 22 of 54 3 of 3 5 of 5 28 of 60 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Lauren Murphy

Big Brady favors Lauren Murphy to win by decision, believing she can stuff Roxanne Modafferi's takedowns and out-strike her on the feet. He notes Murphy's strong takedown defense and ability to get back up if taken down. He acknowledges Modafferi's recent wins as an underdog but thinks Murphy is the better striker and will land more shots.

odds: Modafferi minus 120, Murphy plus 100; pick by decision
"I do favor Murphy to win here I think she's going to be able to stuff the takedowns of Roxanne"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Lauren Murphy

Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy, arguing that Modafferi is one-dimensional and relies on takedowns. He believes Murphy's improved aggression and takedown defense will be key. Levi notes that Murphy looked great against Andrea Lee and should be a slight favorite, not an underdog. He expects a close decision win for Murphy.

"My pick will be Lauren Murphy in this spot as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Roxanne Modafferi

Modafferi has better grappling and a reach advantage. She was winning against Barber before the injury. Murphy hasn't shown much. Modafferi will win by decision.

"I'm gonna go over rocks and mowed a ferry here the odds are really close and I don't understand why... motor ferry gets it done by decision"
WIN vs Maycee Barber
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi 1 19 of 43 44% 112 of 155 1 of 1 100% 0 1 10:32
Maycee Barber 0 16 of 31 51% 25 of 45 0 of 0 --- 1 3 2:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roxanne Modafferi 0 11 of 22 50% 47 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:45
Maycee Barber 0 5 of 14 35% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:12
2 Roxanne Modafferi 1 5 of 10 50% 41 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:42
Maycee Barber 0 4 of 7 57% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:07
3 Roxanne Modafferi 0 3 of 11 27% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:05
Maycee Barber 0 7 of 10 70% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roxanne Modafferi 19 of 43 44% 17 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 31 1 of 1 7 of 11
Maycee Barber 16 of 31 51% 15 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 19 0 of 0 7 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roxanne Modafferi 11 of 22 50% 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 18 1 of 1 3 of 3
Maycee Barber 5 of 14 35% 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Roxanne Modafferi 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 7
Maycee Barber 4 of 7 57% 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7
3 Roxanne Modafferi 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1
Maycee Barber 7 of 10 70% 7 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 5
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maycee Barber

Daniel picks Maycee Barber to knock out Roxanne Modafferi in the first round. He praises Barber's punching power and her work at Rufus with Duke and GM3. He notes that Modafferi, despite her recent win over Shevchenko, was dominated by Jennifer Maia and is past her prime.

first round knockout
"I think Maisie Barbara is gonna go out there and knock out rocks and modifier in the first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maycee Barber

The host picks Maycee Barber to win but expects a tough fight, noting that Roxanne Modafferi will survive for at least 7.5 minutes. He plans to bet the over 1.5 rounds rather than Barber's moneyline, as he believes Barber wins but the fight goes over.

Over 1.5 rounds bet planned.
"I'm picking Maisie Barbara to win there but I believe the bet is gonna be the over in that fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Roxanne Modafferi

The host initially picks Maycee Barber but then switches to Roxanne Modafferi, reasoning that Modafferi is bigger and stronger and will hold Barber against the cage for three rounds. He notes that in female fights, holding against the cage often works, and predicts Barber loses by decision.

decision
"I'm gonna pick Roxanne mo de ferran I think she's gonna hold Maisie Barbara against a cage for free rounds she's the bigger girl she's a stronger girl she's the more experienced Gil"
LOSS vs Jennifer Maia
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jennifer Maia 0 29 of 110 26% 76 of 161 0 of 9 0% 0 0 3:32
Roxanne Modafferi 0 83 of 174 47% 111 of 205 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jennifer Maia 0 6 of 23 26% 20 of 40 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:47
Roxanne Modafferi 0 13 of 35 37% 24 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
2 Jennifer Maia 0 14 of 36 38% 37 of 60 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:10
Roxanne Modafferi 0 32 of 57 56% 36 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
3 Jennifer Maia 0 9 of 51 17% 19 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:35
Roxanne Modafferi 0 38 of 82 46% 51 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jennifer Maia 29 of 110 26% 25 of 100 1 of 5 3 of 5 28 of 109 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 83 of 174 47% 72 of 158 9 of 14 2 of 2 65 of 150 17 of 20 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jennifer Maia 6 of 23 26% 5 of 20 0 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 13 of 35 37% 11 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 29 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jennifer Maia 14 of 36 38% 12 of 33 0 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 32 of 57 56% 29 of 54 3 of 3 0 of 0 22 of 47 10 of 10 0 of 0
3 Jennifer Maia 9 of 51 17% 8 of 47 1 of 3 0 of 1 8 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 38 of 82 46% 32 of 71 4 of 9 2 of 2 35 of 74 2 of 4 1 of 4
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi 0 33 of 79 41% 105 of 162 5 of 6 83% 0 2 9:00
Antonina Shevchenko 0 64 of 116 55% 87 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roxanne Modafferi 0 11 of 40 27% 30 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:59
Antonina Shevchenko 0 26 of 46 56% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Roxanne Modafferi 0 14 of 21 66% 44 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:46
Antonina Shevchenko 0 17 of 34 50% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roxanne Modafferi 0 8 of 18 44% 31 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 2 3:15
Antonina Shevchenko 0 21 of 36 58% 39 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roxanne Modafferi 33 of 79 41% 29 of 73 3 of 5 1 of 1 18 of 60 3 of 4 12 of 15
Antonina Shevchenko 64 of 116 55% 50 of 101 12 of 13 2 of 2 49 of 98 10 of 11 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roxanne Modafferi 11 of 40 27% 8 of 36 2 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 36 2 of 3 0 of 1
Antonina Shevchenko 26 of 46 56% 23 of 43 1 of 1 2 of 2 25 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roxanne Modafferi 14 of 21 66% 14 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 6
Antonina Shevchenko 17 of 34 50% 15 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 5
3 Roxanne Modafferi 8 of 18 44% 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 8
Antonina Shevchenko 21 of 36 58% 12 of 26 9 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2