Career Averages - Rei Tsuruya
Career Averages - Carlos Hernandez
Rei Tsuruya - Fight History
AJ picks Tsuruya, expecting him to dominate with high-level jiu-jitsu and positional grappling. He notes Aguilar is tough but basic, and Tsuruya's submission threat is real. AJ worries about Tsuruya's cardio but thinks he will either win by submission or decision, with a preference for a rear-naked choke finish.
Angelo picks Rei Tsuruya because he is a very good wrestler with great control and cardio. He notes that Luis Gurule just fought a full 15-minute war and is flying across the world, which will not help his cardio. Rei's only loss is to the current world champion Joshua Van.
Angelo picks Rei Tsuruya, trusting his wrestling control and ability to get the fight to the ground. He notes that Luis Gurule has been taken down many times before and still won, but he doesn't think that will happen here. He also questions Gurule's ability to perform after a short turnaround and travel. He believes Tsuruya's top control and cardio will be the difference.
Angelo picks Rei Tsuruya (referred to as Ryura), citing his high-level wrestling and control. He believes Luis Guruel (Jesus Aguilar) will fade due to two weight cuts in two weeks and jet lag, and that Tsuruya's takedowns and top control will be decisive. He notes Tsuruya may not score extremely well but is a decent lineup play.
Big Brady picks Rei Tsuruya by decision, noting Aguilar took the fight on short notice after fighting a week ago and absorbing over 100 significant strikes. He believes Tsuruya's wrestling and grappling are superior, and he will attempt many takedowns, similar to the Pichinin fight. He acknowledges Aguilar would be a live dog with a full camp but the circumstances favor Tsuruya.
Cody picks Tsuruya, citing his youth, back-take specialist skills, and the favorable circumstances. He notes that Tsuruya was supposed to fight Jesus Aguilar, who beat Gurule, but now faces a short-notice opponent who just fought two weeks ago and is moving up to 135. Cody believes Tsuruya's takedowns and control will be effective, and Gurule's fatigue and travel will work against him.
Levi picks the underdog Aguilar, noting his anti-wrestling and ability to scramble. He thinks Tsuruya's standup is limited and Aguilar can sprawl-and-brawl to a decision. However, he acknowledges many 'ifs' regarding Aguilar's health and travel.
Jacob picks Rei because he is a relentless wrestler with a lifetime of wrestling experience. He expects Rei to get early takedowns and that Luis's defensive wrestling will drain his gas tank, leading to late takedowns for Rei. He compares it to Rei's fight against Carlos Hernandez.
Lucrative James picks Rei Tsuruya confidently, citing his slick grappling, unorthodox takedowns, and youth (23). He notes Jesus Aguilar's poor takedown defense and believes Tsuruya's creativity and scrambling will lead to a submission. He mentions Tsuruya's training with Cejudo and improvement since his loss to Joshua Van.
The host picks Aguilar on short notice, believing his cardio and scrambling ability will overcome Tsuruya's grappling. He notes Aguilar's experience against good grapplers and his tendency to not settle for bad positions. He expects Aguilar to defend takedowns early, work back to his feet, and land more damage as the fight goes into deeper waters.
The host picks Jesus Aguilar (referred to as 'Guru') over Rei Tsuruya, noting Aguilar's recent win and good grappling defense. He expects Aguilar to stop takedowns and outwork Tsuruya on the feet, winning on the scorecards in the later rounds.
Paul picks Tsuruya, noting his ability to get takedowns and control positions. He mentions Gurule's recent war and short notice, and that Tsuruya is a young prospect. Paul believes Tsuruya can find a submission or at least control the fight.
The Guru picks Jesus Aguilar over Ray Borgia (Rei Tsuruya), favoring Aguilar's experience and aggressive striking. He doubts Borgia's ability to implement his grappling due to limited striking, and believes Aguilar can stuff takedowns and overwhelm Borgia on the feet. He notes Aguilar's submission threat as a bonus.
The MMA Guru picks Rei Tsuruya to win by submission. He notes that Tsuruya is an elite freestyle wrestler with good grappling, and despite Aguilar's dangerous guillotine, Tsuruya is crafty enough to avoid those positions. He believes Tsuruya will get a submission, possibly similar to how Tatsuru Taira submitted Aguilar from a guillotine attempt.
The Guru believes Tsuruya's relentless grappling and fast start will win the first two rounds at a high clip. He notes Tsuruya's takedown volume and scrambling are excellent, while Aguilar has good cardio and could take the third round but likely loses a decision. He thinks Tsuruya wins 29-28 or 30-27.
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tsuruya (-220); Gurule (+180)
Round 1
Gurule (11-3; 1-3 UFC), just two weeks removed from his first UFC win, looks to build on that momentum as he steps up on short notice against Tsuruya (10-1; 1-1 UFC), who was last in action over a year ago against now-champ Josh Van and most now rebound from that setback. The habitual flyweights have agreed to meet at 135 pounds here, and Marc Goddard is the referee. Tsuruya refuses the glove touch, and his southpaw stance against Gurule’s orthodox attack leads to immediate jostling of the lead hands. A few awkward, glancing exchanges result, but Tsuruya’s advantages in height and reach are stark. He lands a hard left that buckles Gurule’s legs momentarily, and he presses his advantage. He can’t land any more clean strikes, but hustles the American to the canvas, where he gradually moves to take back control. Gurule halts his positional advance, and Tsuruya punishes him with a brutal stream of ground punches that have Goddard looking on closely. Gurule survives and shells up, but when he tries to stand, Tsuruya hoists him, slams him back to the ground and takes back mount.
Tsuruya sinks a body triangle and starts fishing for a choke. He gets a neck crank and applies torque, and it’s enough: Gurule is forced to tap and Goddard is there for the save.
Impressive work from Rei Tsuruya to bounce back from his first professional loss in dominant fashion.
The Official Result
Rei Tsuruya def. Luis Gurule R1 3:19 via Submission (Neck Crank)
AJ is confident in Rei Tsuruya, citing a clear grappling edge over Luis Gurule, who is a short-notice replacement. He notes that Gurule was dropped multiple times by Jesus Aguilar, whom Tsuruya was originally scheduled to fight. AJ expects Tsuruya to take Gurule's back and secure a rear-naked choke submission, as Tsuruya is a hyper-elite grappler with only one pro loss to Joshua Van.
AJ is confident Tsuruya will out-grapple Gurule, citing his high-level grappling, takedowns, and jiu-jitsu. He notes Tsuruya's only loss is to Joshua Van and compares him to a 'great value Tatsuro Taira'. He predicts Tsuruya will hit takedowns, control position, and win by decision or submission, specifically a rear naked choke in the first or second round.
Connor picks Rei Tsuruya, noting Gurule is not fast, dynamic, or powerful for flyweight, and cannot create separation. Tsuruya is faster and can impose his wrestling game. Gurule is also on short notice.
Zane picks Rei Tsuruya because he is a strong, determined wrestler who gave Joshua Van a hard fight. Luis Gurule is a meat-and-potatoes flyweight who struggles against athletic opponents willing to push pace. Tsuruya is faster and knows exactly what he needs to do.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 0 | 59 of 97 | 60% | 127 of 169 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Rei Tsuruya | 0 | 32 of 84 | 38% | 47 of 104 | 4 of 21 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Van | 0 | 17 of 29 | 58% | 37 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Rei Tsuruya | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 13 of 24 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 | |
| 2 | Joshua Van | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 31 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Rei Tsuruya | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 19 of 43 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 | |
| 3 | Joshua Van | 0 | 24 of 40 | 60% | 59 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Rei Tsuruya | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 15 of 37 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 59 of 97 | 60% | 39 of 74 | 19 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 53 of 90 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 2 |
| Rei Tsuruya | 32 of 84 | 38% | 28 of 78 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 83 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Van | 17 of 29 | 58% | 10 of 22 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Rei Tsuruya | 6 of 14 | 42% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joshua Van | 18 of 28 | 64% | 13 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Rei Tsuruya | 11 of 33 | 33% | 9 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joshua Van | 24 of 40 | 60% | 16 of 30 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rei Tsuruya | 15 of 37 | 40% | 13 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-192), Tsuruya (+160)
Round 1
Preliminary headlining focus shifts from the heaviest weight class in the UFC instead to the lightest men’s division, as Van (12-2, 5-1 UFC) vs. Tsuruya (10-0, 1-0 UFC) has been elevated to that vaunted cable slot. As a note, this will be the first fight in the history of the promotion between two competitors born after the year of 2000, and referee Jason Herzog will do his best to keep pace with these two youngsters. The flyweights bump fists, and Tsuruya takes the center of the cage and hand-fights his opponent. Van starts to walk forward, where he jabs the body. Tsuruya shoots in on his hips, and Van shucks him off and escapes. Van stuffs a second takedown, and he turns Tsuruya towards the fence but is unable to keep him there. They jockey for position while kneeing one another in the thigh and midsection, and Van frees himself. When Tsuruya fakes for another takedown, Van sells out defending it and eats a left hand down the pipe. Van pays him back with a snappy right hand, and Tsuruya turns and runs to reset. Van tags him with another right, and he has to fend off another takedown from a long way away. Van works his way to the wall to put his back against it, helping defend the level change. Tsuruya keeps him tied up until Van explodes out of position, and he throws himself off-balance when trying to back off. Van walks him down and punches him in the face, stifling a takedown effort and breaking out of the tie-up. Tsuruya reaches out with a right hand, and he leans back to dodge a head kick that buzzes his cornrows. Van times a perfect right hand when Tsuruya ducks, and Tsuruya has to take a moment to recover. Van keeps after him, ready for the incoming takedown, and Tsuruya still manages to get lower and throws Van to his back. Van gets to his knees and escapes before anything comes from the successful takedown, and he gets back to walking the unbeaten fighter down. Tsuruya again ducks away to get safe, and Van punches him in the nose to bloody it. When Van looses a head kick, Tsuruya hits a successful single-leg entry and puts Van on his seat. Van jumps back up again and elbows Tsuruya on the break to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van
Round 2
It takes no more than a few seconds for Tsuruya to shoot for a takedown, and Van shuts him down. The second effort results in both men dropping to their knees, and Van gets out of this one again and goes back to marching his opponent down. Tsuruya ducks and eats a right hand, and Van runs at him with his hands flying. Tsuruya takes one or two on the chin before grabbing Van’s arm and expertly slinging him to the floor. Tsuruya holds on from a high side control, keeping his right arm beneath Van’s head while his left hand slugs Van in the face. Van bursts back to his feet, and he uncomfortably frames of Tsuruya’s face to get some space. Van stuffs a takedown and lands a punch, and Tsuruya gives him two back that set up a single. Van drops to his knees to stop the takedown from going anywhere, and he lets go to stand up. Tsuruya connects at the end of a one-two, and he gets back to circling on the outer edge of the cage. Van disallows him from getting another takedown, pushing out of the clinch so he can throw hands. Tsuruya tries to pay him back, and Van goes to the body with two thudding punches. Tsuruya whiffs, dodges and comes out with a right hand over the top, only for Van to be in his face working him with front kicks and right hands. One particularly damaging front kick forces Tsuruya to shoot, and Van laughs it off and elbows Tsuruya in the face. Tsuruya tries to spin with an elbow in close range, and Van ducks and walks him down to club him in the face with a right hand. Van scores a left hand, grabs the back of Tsuruya’s neck and lowers himself into a painful knee, and Tsuruya shakes it off and spins with a back fist that does land. Van keeps after him until the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van
Round 3
There is a glove touch to open the last round, and three seconds in, Tsuruya shoots. Van is reminded by Herzog that his opponent is grounded so he does not throw knees, and he lets Tsuruya up so he can bust him in the face with an elbow. Van keeps plodding ever forward, kicking Tsuruya in the face and eating a right hand on the way out. Two more shots from Tsuruya run into a 125-pound brick wall, and Van wants nothing to do with the grappling and gets back to throwing hands. Any time he is about to land with something effective, Tsuruya shoots, and Van easily sprawls. Tsuruya sneaks in a right hand, and he wobbles back when apparently clipped on the way out. Van goes to the body, and his foe fakes a takedown to knee him in the body. Van fires off a front kick, and it bangs into Tsuruya’s cup to force a Herzog stoppage. After 75 seconds, the fighters get back to it with a touch of gloves. Tsuruya shoots in with a naked takedown, and Van belts him in the side of the head as he backs himself to the fence. Van unleashes vicious left hands to the side, with Tsuruya all the way in for a takedown that he is not landing. Van turns the corner and gets out, and he puts his foot on the gas and hops away from a low kick. Van jabs his way in, and he walks through a Tsuruya punch to put one on Tsuruya’s chin. Tsuruya comes up short on a one-two, and Van stings him with a straight right hand. A second from “The Fearless” stumbles Tsuruya, who gathers his thoughts and spins with a back fist that brushes off the side. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 failed takedowns have now come from Tsuruya, and Van walks him down and kicks him in the gut. Van goes to the body and wings a right hand up top, but the big right hand misses his target. Van jams a front kick into Tsuruya’s midsection, and Tsuruya goes down clutching his groin. However, the toes from Van are shown to have stabbed into Tsuruya’s torso, and Herzog ushers them back to restart the fight despite that it was partially a groin shot. Van walks his man down, punching in the face repeatedly, and nearly dropping him right before the final bell. When time expires, Van raises his arms in the air and goes to talk to someone outside the cage, proud that he very likely ejected the Japanese fighter from the ranks of the unbeaten.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (30-27 Van)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Van (30-27 Van)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van (30-27 Van)
The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Rei Tsuruya via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rei Tsuruya | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 62 of 83 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 6:19 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 26 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rei Tsuruya | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 8 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Rei Tsuruya | 0 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 26 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:42 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rei Tsuruya | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 27 of 28 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 16 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rei Tsuruya | 17 of 32 | 53% | 15 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 17 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 16 of 32 | 50% | 7 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rei Tsuruya | 2 of 12 | 16% | 1 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 8 of 23 | 34% | 3 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rei Tsuruya | 13 of 17 | 76% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 17 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Rei Tsuruya | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 6 of 7 | 85% | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tsuruya (-485), Hernandez (+370)
Round 1
Fresh off three wins on the Road to UFC series, unbeaten youngster Tsuruya (9-0, 0-0 UFC) has a shiny UFC contract and will be officially making his debut with the organization. He takes on 2021 Dana White’s Contender Series pickup Hernandez (9-3, 2-2 UFC), who has alternated wins and losses since joining the major leagues. The third man in the Octagon for this flyweight affair will be referee Marc Goddard, who sits back as the fighters touch gloves. Tsuruya moves to the center of the Octagon immediately, bouncing back and forth looking for a read. Hernandez paws out half-hearted jabs to find his distance, and he hops back when a right hand whizzes by his face. Tsuruya splits the guard with a one-two, and he absorbs a low kick on the way out. When Hernandez commits to an overhand right, Tsuruya drops low and gets hold of a single-leg takedown. Hernandez moves right to a knee and stands back up, and he moves around to take Tsuruya’s back and slams Tsuruya down on his face. When the Japanese fighter hits the mat, he is quick to pursue a kneebar, and he turns the heel to get hold of a possible heel hook. Hernandez turns out of both of them, fights off the potential calf slicer and stands back to his feet. Tsuruya lunges at him with a right hand, and Hernandez walks him down looking for a big right hand that he does not throw. Both fighters miss with short punch combinations, and Hernandez dings the youngster with a left hand on the way out. Tsuruya leans over to land a few strikes, and Hernandez leans back and gets off a right hand at the end of a combo. Tsuruya shoots in for a takedown, and Hernandez works his way to the wall and leans back against it to stay upright. The 22-year-old decides instead to hit a suplex to toss Hernandez to the mat, and he winds up in side control briefly after a mad scramble. Hernandez continues to move, not settling for any position, and Tsuruya sits on top of him at an odd angle. Tsuruya locks down one left of his opponent and turns it to the right, and looks to torque the torso to the left for a potential twister. Hernandez is wise to it, and he escapes the danger before the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Round 2
There is a quick tap of gloves to get things started in the second stanza, and Hernandez moves to the middle of the cage to start this one instead. Tsuruya dives after him in pursuit of a takedown, and he scoops Hernandez up and deposits him to the mat. Hernandez locks on with an arm-triangle of Tsuruya’s shoulder to trap him in this position, but he looses it to scramble and turn over to his knees. Tsuruya wraps up Hernandez’s left arm and smashes him in the dome with an elbow on the other side, and he is warned for it landing to the back of the head. Tsuruya gets hold of a crucifix position, and Hernandez moves wildly to free his limbs from the precarious posture. Tsuruya follows him in an effort to take the back, and he settles to hold on from one side. Hernandez sits up, with Tsuruya partially behind him, and Tsuruya goes after another twister setup. Tsuruya cranks Hernandez’ hips to the right and looks to pull on Hernandez’ left arm to torque his body in inhuman directions. Hernandez does everything he can to get out of it, and Hernandez turns the wrong direction but wriggles his leg out to escape at the last second. Hernandez flips over to put his back on the mat, where Tsuruya moves into a more standard position of the open guard. Hernandez tries to push off the hips, slash out with elbows and otherwise get some space. Tsuruya gets shoved up back to his feet, and he leaps back down on top and wraps his left arm around the neck for a possible guillotine choke. Tsuruya lets the neck go so he can look for Hernandez’ leg, and Hernandez keeps shifting and twisting. Tsuruya winds up sitting up dropping down 12-6 elbows on his opponent until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Round 3
It takes Tsuruya three seconds to shoot for a takedown, and when that fails, he attempts to throw Hernandez behind him. Hernandez keeps heavy, instead pressing forward and landing on top of his opponent. During the exchange, their heads bang together and a cut is opened on the corner of Hernandez’ left eye, and it starts leaking blood down immediately. Hernandez maintains the heaviest of top pressures, not allowing Tsuruya to get any space but not ultimately doing any damage either. Hernandez resides in half guard, and Goddard asks for more activity and for Hernandez to try to improve his position. Tsuruya turns to his side and looks for a single in response, allowing Hernandez to sit up and elbow him a few times. Tsuruya gets to both knees, and he commits hard to the single but they stand up together and end up clinched on the fence. Hernandez squeezes his man up against the wire, until Tsuruya goes down to a knee to try to trip Hernandez to the floor. Hernandez stands up and jams Tsuruya up further, and the pace wanes as Hernandez turns things to a grind. Hernandez digs two left hands to the body before squeezing tightly against the Japanese prospect, occasionally opening up to land another punch or two as time keeps ticking. Tsuruya looks for an arm drag but Hernandez spins around and knees him in the liver. Tsuruya does not like this strike, and Hernandez goes after a single but cannot get it before time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Tsuruya)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Tsuruya)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Tsuruya)
The Official Result
Rei Tsuruya def. Carlos Hernandez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Cody picks Tsuruya, citing his youth, grappling, and back-taking ability. He notes that Hernandez has been taken down multiple times in recent fights and that Tsuruya is a relentless grappler. Cody believes Tsuruya will eventually get a takedown and take Hernandez's back, leading to a submission or dominant decision. He also mentions that Tsuruya has a good gas tank and creates scrambles.
Daniel respects Tsuruya's grappling-heavy style and his commitment to takedowns, even if they are not set up. He worries about Hernandez's lack of athleticism and physicality, which could allow Tsuruya to backpack and win a decision or submission. However, he notes that Tsuruya is vulnerable to knees when shooting blindly and calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host is confident Tsuruya will win, citing his superior wrestling and ability to create chaos in grappling exchanges. He expects Tsuruya to grind out Hernandez over 15 minutes, possibly by decision. He notes Hernandez has solid takedown defense but thinks Tsuruya's relentless pressure will overcome it.
Paul leans toward Tsuruya but is wary of the minus-500 price. He notes that Hernandez has been taken down frequently and that Tsuruya is a strong grappler. However, Paul prefers to see Tsuruya against better competition before betting him at such short odds. He acknowledges that Tsuruya likely wins but passes on the bet.
The Guru picks Carlos Hernandez as an underdog over Rei Tsuruya. He suspects Tsuruya may be due for a 'fraud check' as a Road to UFC prospect. He notes Hernandez's experience and longevity in the sport. He believes Hernandez can win a close decision, possibly 29-28.
Carlos Hernandez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Park Hyun-sung | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 17 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 4 of 17 | 23% | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Park Hyun-sung | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 17 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 4 of 17 | 23% | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Park Hyun-sung | 14 of 22 | 63% | 5 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 4 of 17 | 23% | 2 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Park Hyun-sung | 14 of 22 | 63% | 5 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 4 of 17 | 23% | 2 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Park Hyun-sung but notes that the 2:1 odds seem a bit off. He describes Park as a slick grappler who is a finisher but has looked uncomfortable on his feet. He notes that Carlos Hernandez is a grappler with okay striking and improving wrestling. Angelo thinks this fight is a test for Park and that Hernandez is tough, so he might consider the over if a 1.5 round line is available.
Big Brady picks Park Hyun-sung, citing his finishing upside and slick grappling. He notes Carlos Hernandez is okay everywhere but lacks knockout power and has poor takedown defense. He expects Park to mix in takedowns and win a competitive decision.
The host is high on Park as one of his favorite Korean prospects, citing his firepower, physicality, and athleticism. He believes Park can land more significant damage whether striking or mixing in takedowns, and that will be the difference maker. The pick is confident but not a lock.
The Guru picks Park Hyun-sung, calling him a great prospect with finishing potential. He notes Carlos Hernandez has lost too many times and lacks fluidity. He acknowledges Hernandez could make it gritty and win later rounds, but leans toward Park getting a TKO. He does not see Park as a legitimate contender yet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hernandez | 1 | 26 of 93 | 27% | 28 of 95 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:15 |
| Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | 0 | 44 of 105 | 41% | 46 of 110 | 4 of 14 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Hernandez | 1 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 13 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 12 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 | |
| 2 | Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 2 of 18 | 11% | 2 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:06 |
| Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 13 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 | |
| 3 | Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 12 of 49 | 24% | 13 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | 0 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hernandez | 26 of 93 | 27% | 18 of 82 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 84 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 5 |
| Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | 44 of 105 | 41% | 26 of 85 | 8 of 9 | 10 of 11 | 40 of 94 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Hernandez | 12 of 26 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 23 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | 11 of 29 | 37% | 7 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Carlos Hernandez | 2 of 18 | 11% | 2 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 |
| Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | 12 of 26 | 46% | 6 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Carlos Hernandez | 12 of 49 | 24% | 10 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | 21 of 50 | 42% | 13 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Carlos Hernandez, valuing his UFC experience and cage time over the undefeated but untested Nyamjargal. He thinks Nyamjargal may get frustrated if the fight goes long. He explicitly says no bet on this fight due to uncertainty.
Big Brady picks Carlos Hernandez to win by third-round submission. He is shocked Hernandez is the favorite given he is usually a big underdog, but after watching Tumendemberel's Road to UFC fights, he saw a 14% takedown defense and poor ground game. Brady believes Hernandez can flip the script and use his grappling to take down and submit his opponent, as Hernandez has hung with tough grapplers before.
Cody agrees, calling Hernandez a proven gatekeeper who has tested prospects. He notes that the Mongolian fighter has been inactive and struggled against a smoker in his last fight. Hernandez's superior striking and cardio should carry him to a win, though he could be knocked out if he's careless.
Daniel Vreeland acknowledges that Carlos Hernandez is more experienced and well-rounded, but notes that Hernandez often fails to separate himself in fights and has lost to green opponents before. He believes Tumendemberel, despite being green, has the killer instinct and could win a close decision. He picks the upset, predicting a controversial split decision.
Paul picks Hernandez, noting his solid chin, grappling, and experience against tough prospects. He thinks the Mongolian fighter is unproven and Hernandez will be a tough gatekeeper. He expects Hernandez to win by decision or late finish, and sees value at minus-185.
The MMA Guru sides with the undefeated newcomer Nyamjargal Tumendemberel, despite acknowledging Carlos Hernandez is good and made it tricky against Ray Surria. He reasons that Hernandez at 9-4 may no longer have title hopes, while the newcomer is undefeated and on the come-up. He admits he almost picked Hernandez for the upset but ultimately goes with the undefeated fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rei Tsuruya | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 62 of 83 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 6:19 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 26 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rei Tsuruya | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 8 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Rei Tsuruya | 0 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 26 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:42 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rei Tsuruya | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 27 of 28 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 16 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rei Tsuruya | 17 of 32 | 53% | 15 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 17 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 16 of 32 | 50% | 7 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rei Tsuruya | 2 of 12 | 16% | 1 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 8 of 23 | 34% | 3 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rei Tsuruya | 13 of 17 | 76% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 17 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Rei Tsuruya | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 6 of 7 | 85% | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tsuruya (-485), Hernandez (+370)
Round 1
Fresh off three wins on the Road to UFC series, unbeaten youngster Tsuruya (9-0, 0-0 UFC) has a shiny UFC contract and will be officially making his debut with the organization. He takes on 2021 Dana White’s Contender Series pickup Hernandez (9-3, 2-2 UFC), who has alternated wins and losses since joining the major leagues. The third man in the Octagon for this flyweight affair will be referee Marc Goddard, who sits back as the fighters touch gloves. Tsuruya moves to the center of the Octagon immediately, bouncing back and forth looking for a read. Hernandez paws out half-hearted jabs to find his distance, and he hops back when a right hand whizzes by his face. Tsuruya splits the guard with a one-two, and he absorbs a low kick on the way out. When Hernandez commits to an overhand right, Tsuruya drops low and gets hold of a single-leg takedown. Hernandez moves right to a knee and stands back up, and he moves around to take Tsuruya’s back and slams Tsuruya down on his face. When the Japanese fighter hits the mat, he is quick to pursue a kneebar, and he turns the heel to get hold of a possible heel hook. Hernandez turns out of both of them, fights off the potential calf slicer and stands back to his feet. Tsuruya lunges at him with a right hand, and Hernandez walks him down looking for a big right hand that he does not throw. Both fighters miss with short punch combinations, and Hernandez dings the youngster with a left hand on the way out. Tsuruya leans over to land a few strikes, and Hernandez leans back and gets off a right hand at the end of a combo. Tsuruya shoots in for a takedown, and Hernandez works his way to the wall and leans back against it to stay upright. The 22-year-old decides instead to hit a suplex to toss Hernandez to the mat, and he winds up in side control briefly after a mad scramble. Hernandez continues to move, not settling for any position, and Tsuruya sits on top of him at an odd angle. Tsuruya locks down one left of his opponent and turns it to the right, and looks to torque the torso to the left for a potential twister. Hernandez is wise to it, and he escapes the danger before the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Round 2
There is a quick tap of gloves to get things started in the second stanza, and Hernandez moves to the middle of the cage to start this one instead. Tsuruya dives after him in pursuit of a takedown, and he scoops Hernandez up and deposits him to the mat. Hernandez locks on with an arm-triangle of Tsuruya’s shoulder to trap him in this position, but he looses it to scramble and turn over to his knees. Tsuruya wraps up Hernandez’s left arm and smashes him in the dome with an elbow on the other side, and he is warned for it landing to the back of the head. Tsuruya gets hold of a crucifix position, and Hernandez moves wildly to free his limbs from the precarious posture. Tsuruya follows him in an effort to take the back, and he settles to hold on from one side. Hernandez sits up, with Tsuruya partially behind him, and Tsuruya goes after another twister setup. Tsuruya cranks Hernandez’ hips to the right and looks to pull on Hernandez’ left arm to torque his body in inhuman directions. Hernandez does everything he can to get out of it, and Hernandez turns the wrong direction but wriggles his leg out to escape at the last second. Hernandez flips over to put his back on the mat, where Tsuruya moves into a more standard position of the open guard. Hernandez tries to push off the hips, slash out with elbows and otherwise get some space. Tsuruya gets shoved up back to his feet, and he leaps back down on top and wraps his left arm around the neck for a possible guillotine choke. Tsuruya lets the neck go so he can look for Hernandez’ leg, and Hernandez keeps shifting and twisting. Tsuruya winds up sitting up dropping down 12-6 elbows on his opponent until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Round 3
It takes Tsuruya three seconds to shoot for a takedown, and when that fails, he attempts to throw Hernandez behind him. Hernandez keeps heavy, instead pressing forward and landing on top of his opponent. During the exchange, their heads bang together and a cut is opened on the corner of Hernandez’ left eye, and it starts leaking blood down immediately. Hernandez maintains the heaviest of top pressures, not allowing Tsuruya to get any space but not ultimately doing any damage either. Hernandez resides in half guard, and Goddard asks for more activity and for Hernandez to try to improve his position. Tsuruya turns to his side and looks for a single in response, allowing Hernandez to sit up and elbow him a few times. Tsuruya gets to both knees, and he commits hard to the single but they stand up together and end up clinched on the fence. Hernandez squeezes his man up against the wire, until Tsuruya goes down to a knee to try to trip Hernandez to the floor. Hernandez stands up and jams Tsuruya up further, and the pace wanes as Hernandez turns things to a grind. Hernandez digs two left hands to the body before squeezing tightly against the Japanese prospect, occasionally opening up to land another punch or two as time keeps ticking. Tsuruya looks for an arm drag but Hernandez spins around and knees him in the liver. Tsuruya does not like this strike, and Hernandez goes after a single but cannot get it before time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Tsuruya)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Tsuruya)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Tsuruya)
The Official Result
Rei Tsuruya def. Carlos Hernandez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Cody picks Tsuruya, citing his youth, grappling, and back-taking ability. He notes that Hernandez has been taken down multiple times in recent fights and that Tsuruya is a relentless grappler. Cody believes Tsuruya will eventually get a takedown and take Hernandez's back, leading to a submission or dominant decision. He also mentions that Tsuruya has a good gas tank and creates scrambles.
Daniel respects Tsuruya's grappling-heavy style and his commitment to takedowns, even if they are not set up. He worries about Hernandez's lack of athleticism and physicality, which could allow Tsuruya to backpack and win a decision or submission. However, he notes that Tsuruya is vulnerable to knees when shooting blindly and calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host is confident Tsuruya will win, citing his superior wrestling and ability to create chaos in grappling exchanges. He expects Tsuruya to grind out Hernandez over 15 minutes, possibly by decision. He notes Hernandez has solid takedown defense but thinks Tsuruya's relentless pressure will overcome it.
Paul leans toward Tsuruya but is wary of the minus-500 price. He notes that Hernandez has been taken down frequently and that Tsuruya is a strong grappler. However, Paul prefers to see Tsuruya against better competition before betting him at such short odds. He acknowledges that Tsuruya likely wins but passes on the bet.
The Guru picks Carlos Hernandez as an underdog over Rei Tsuruya. He suspects Tsuruya may be due for a 'fraud check' as a Road to UFC prospect. He notes Hernandez's experience and longevity in the sport. He believes Hernandez can win a close decision, possibly 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 1 | 33 of 43 | 76% | 44 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:36 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 20 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 2 | Tatsuro Taira | 1 | 21 of 24 | 87% | 24 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 33 of 43 | 76% | 30 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 34 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 12 of 19 | 63% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 17 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatsuro Taira | 21 of 24 | 87% | 18 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 17 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-410), Hernandez (+320)
Round 1
Buried on the prelims is a young man fast on the rise, as 23-year-old Japanese prospect Taira (14-0, 4-0 UFC) looks for win no. 15 at the expense of the speedy Hernandez (9-2, 2-1 UFC). The latter recently picked up a win in June when a slam knockout ended up overturned to a decision thanks to an inadvertent clash of heads on the way down. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Mark Smith, and he kicks off the fight as the 125ers touch gloves. Hernandez is the initial aggressor, pushing the action at least from a movement standpoint. Neither man commit to a strike in the first 30 seconds, until Hernandez paws out with a left hand that sneaks around the guard. Taira responds with a front kick, and Hernandez chases him to the ground. Taira immediately sweeps his opponent, and the resulting wild scramble results in both men getting back to their feet. Hernandez pushes the Japanese fighter against the wall, and he lifts Taira up and attempts to slam him down. Instead, Taira positions himself midair to shift his body weight, and he pushes Hernandez over and lands on top of him. Taira steps over to three-quarter mount briefly, but remains comfortable in half guard so he can control and land sporadic left hands or an elbow. Taira jumps over to full mount, and he looks to hook his left arm around the side of the head while lacing Hernandez’ legs between his own. Taira bails on the arm-triangle choke setup so he can posture up and land shots from on top. Hernandez turns over, and Taira flattens him out and starts fishing for a submission. When that does not come, he starts laying into Hernandez with his fists. Hernandez turns about again, giving up his back, and Taira follows him every step of the way and looks to fasten in a rear-naked choke grip. Hernandez defends it and continues twisting himself around, and Taira drills him with punches any time he has an opening. Taira sits up and blasts Hernandez in the face with an emphatic right hand, and he rides out the remainder of the round on top and lands one more right hand.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Round 2
The flyweights come together, and Hernandez is again the first to push the pace. Taira smacks him in the temple with a left hand, and he follows with a calf kick. Taira rifles a straight right hand down the pipe, rocking Hernandez down to his core, and
he strings together a chain of punches until Hernandez crumbles to the mat. Taira follows him down, continuing his bombardment of strikes, and Hernandez turtles up on his knees, barely still with it. Smith watches on as Taira beats on him, and he determines that Hernandez is no longer in the fight and waves it off.
This is a big win for Taira, who records his first career knockout in years by lifting himself to a perfect 15-0 as a pro.
The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. Carlos Hernandez R2 0:55 via TKO (Punches)
Cody picks Tatsuro Taira. He notes that Taira is a legitimate prospect with excellent back-taking skills. Cody points out that Hernandez has poor takedown defense and gives up his back. He thinks Taira will bait Hernandez in, shoot for a takedown, take the back, and sink in a rear-naked choke. Cody acknowledges that Taira will eventually face a tough wrestler but believes Hernandez is not that guy.
Paul picks Tatsuro Taira. He notes that Hernandez's grappling is solid but not elite, and he was submitted quickly by Alan Nascimento. Paul thinks Taira is systematic in getting to the back and finding the choke. He is interested in Taira by submission at plus 120 but is a bit concerned about Hernandez's ability to survive the full 15 minutes. Overall, Paul expects Taira to win by submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 102 of 233 | 43% | 108 of 239 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Denys Bondar | 0 | 76 of 170 | 44% | 82 of 176 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 35 of 71 | 49% | 36 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Denys Bondar | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 27 of 82 | 32% | 31 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Denys Bondar | 0 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 34 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 40 of 80 | 50% | 41 of 81 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Denys Bondar | 0 | 21 of 61 | 34% | 26 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hernandez | 102 of 233 | 43% | 87 of 213 | 12 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 78 of 209 | 17 of 17 | 7 of 7 |
| Denys Bondar | 76 of 170 | 44% | 37 of 121 | 29 of 38 | 10 of 11 | 68 of 157 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Hernandez | 35 of 71 | 49% | 28 of 62 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 65 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Denys Bondar | 22 of 48 | 45% | 6 of 28 | 12 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 40 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Hernandez | 27 of 82 | 32% | 23 of 76 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 77 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Denys Bondar | 33 of 61 | 54% | 20 of 43 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 30 of 57 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Carlos Hernandez | 40 of 80 | 50% | 36 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 67 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 7 |
| Denys Bondar | 21 of 61 | 34% | 11 of 50 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Cristian Quiñonez because he believes Quiñonez's relentless forward pressure and wrestling will get Kang down repeatedly. He notes that Kang has cleaner technique and a good jab, but Quiñonez's pace and grappling should be the difference. Angelo also hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line and would bet the over if available, as Kang is tough and the fight likely goes into the second round.
Big Brady picks Denys Bondar to win by submission. He was very high on Bondar initially but tempered expectations after Bondar lost to Malcolm Gordon due to injury and was losing on the feet. However, he sees this as a great stylistic matchup for Bondar, as Hernandez has poor takedown defense. Bondar has strong wrestling and grappling with a 100% finish rate. Brady thinks Bondar will get takedowns easily and be dangerous on the mat, eventually submitting Hernandez. He is curious to see where the odds open.
Cody takes the underdog Hernandez, citing Bondar's padded record and poor UFC debut where he got his arm broken. He notes that Bondar's wrestling looked good against cans, but Hernandez has faced better competition. Cody thinks Hernandez's takedown defense is a weakness, but Bondar's striking is non-existent, and if Bondar can't get takedowns, Hernandez will win on the feet. He expects a close, greasy fight.
Connor agrees with Zane, stating he trusts Bondar's physicality and grinding style over Hernandez's scrappy but limited game. He notes that Hernandez is not athletic enough to keep up with Bondar's pace and pressure. Connor expects Bondar to impose his will with takedowns and top control, leading to a clear decision or late finish.
Daniel Levi leans toward Carlos Hernandez, citing his superior competition and volume. He notes Hernandez's body shots and activity, but acknowledges Bondar's grappling threat. He thinks if Bondar can't hold him down, Hernandez will outpoint him. He sees it as a close fight and takes the underdog.
Hernandez consistently moves backwards and puts himself in bad positions near the cage, which Bondar can exploit with takedowns. Bondar is an aggressive grappler who looks to finish from top position. Even if Hernandez gets the better of striking exchanges, Bondar's takedowns and top control should win rounds. Bondar wins by decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Bondar's wrestling is unproven at UFC level and that Hernandez's takedown defense has been exploited but Bondar may not be able to exploit it. He thinks the over 2 takedowns for Bondar is possible but not a play. Paul picks Hernandez but is not confident.
The MMA Guru picks Cristian Quiñonez over Kyung Ho Kang, citing Kang's age (35), long layoffs, and lackluster performances against bottom feeders. He notes Quiñonez is an up-and-coming prospect on a win streak, with an impressive first-round KO debut against Khalid Taha. He believes the prospect should be favored over the older, injury-prone veteran.
Zane picks Bondar, viewing his debut loss as a fluke and trusting his grinding style of takedowns and top control. He notes that Hernandez is scrappy but not athletic, and will fight whatever fight his opponent wants. Zane believes Bondar's pressure and ability to stay in his face will overwhelm Hernandez, who lacks the athleticism to get Bondar off his game. He expects Bondar to control the fight with wrestling and clinch work.
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nascimento (-410), Hernandez (+330)
Round 1
Moving back to flyweights, Brazilian submission artist Nascimento (19-6, 1-1 UFC) will try to get things done against fellow grappler Hernandez (8-1, 1-0 UFC) in what could be a fun battle on the ground. The two combine for 17 submissions across their 27 career wins, while neither man has ever been finished. Referee Jason Herzog is ready for wherever the fight may take the three of them, and he sits back as the two competitors clap hands. Nascimento advances first, feinting and faking to draw immediate reactions. Hernandez does not bite on anything, and they paw at one another with low kicks and jabs. Nascimento goes up top with a kick that is blocked, and he slides out of the way from a straight right hand. Nascimento connects with a front kick that splits the guard, shaking Hernandez up, and this allows him to punch his way into a takedown try. In an unorthodox fashion, Nascimento throws Hernandez down to his knees, and Hernandez immediately fights his way back up. The subsequent mat return from Nascimento succeeds when he drags the American down from behind, and he cinches up a body triangle in a hurry. Hernandez smartly fights the hands and turns to the proper side to break up the body lock, and Nascimento switches his leg grip as he hunts for a sneaky choke. Hernandez walks off the wall and turns all the way to belly down, and
this is the worst possible move for him as Nascimento gets the leverage to sink in the rear-naked choke. Hernandez stands up with Nascimento on his back, and “Puro Osso” still has the choke under the chin as he squeezes with all his might. Switching his grip to palm-to-palm, it is just a matter of time at this point. Hernandez grimaces and squirms, but there is nothing more he can do, and he taps out.
As it turned out, something did have to give, as Hernandez has now been finished for the first time as a pro.
The Official Result
Allan Nascimento def. Carlos Hernandez R1 3:16 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Expert Picks (6)
Cody picks Tsuruya, citing his youth, grappling, and back-taking ability. He notes that Hernandez has been taken down multiple times in recent fights and that Tsuruya is a relentless grappler. Cody believes Tsuruya will eventually get a takedown and take Hernandez's back, leading to a submission or dominant decision. He also mentions that Tsuruya has a good gas tank and creates scrambles.
Daniel respects Tsuruya's grappling-heavy style and his commitment to takedowns, even if they are not set up. He worries about Hernandez's lack of athleticism and physicality, which could allow Tsuruya to backpack and win a decision or submission. However, he notes that Tsuruya is vulnerable to knees when shooting blindly and calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host is confident Tsuruya will win, citing his superior wrestling and ability to create chaos in grappling exchanges. He expects Tsuruya to grind out Hernandez over 15 minutes, possibly by decision. He notes Hernandez has solid takedown defense but thinks Tsuruya's relentless pressure will overcome it.
Paul leans toward Tsuruya but is wary of the minus-500 price. He notes that Hernandez has been taken down frequently and that Tsuruya is a strong grappler. However, Paul prefers to see Tsuruya against better competition before betting him at such short odds. He acknowledges that Tsuruya likely wins but passes on the bet.
The Guru picks Carlos Hernandez as an underdog over Rei Tsuruya. He suspects Tsuruya may be due for a 'fraud check' as a Road to UFC prospect. He notes Hernandez's experience and longevity in the sport. He believes Hernandez can win a close decision, possibly 29-28.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!