Career Averages - Diego Lopes
Career Averages - Dan Ige
Diego Lopes
Dan Ige
Diego Lopes - Fight History
AJ is leaning towards Steve Garcia, citing Garcia's terrifying hands and cardio to go three hard rounds. He thinks Garcia could outstrike Lopes and notes that Lopes is not a grapple smotherer, making it hard for him to control Garcia. He also mentions Garcia's chin and finishing ability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 98 of 160 | 61% | 112 of 178 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 2:49 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 70 of 158 | 44% | 74 of 162 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 17 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 19 of 30 | 63% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 25 of 44 | 56% | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 21 of 24 | 87% | 29 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 98 of 160 | 61% | 72 of 118 | 3 of 6 | 23 of 36 | 88 of 149 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 7 |
| Diego Lopes | 70 of 158 | 44% | 33 of 98 | 17 of 33 | 20 of 27 | 66 of 152 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 12 of 27 | 44% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 12 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 12 of 28 | 42% | 3 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 19 of 30 | 63% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 19 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 16 of 34 | 47% | 9 of 23 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 15 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 21 of 35 | 60% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 17 of 38 | 44% | 8 of 24 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 15 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 25 of 44 | 56% | 15 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 22 of 48 | 45% | 10 of 29 | 7 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 21 of 24 | 87% | 18 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 |
| Diego Lopes | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Volkanovski to win the rematch, citing his insane cardio, high fight IQ, and ability to game plan. He believes Volkanovski will wrestle more this time to take away Diego's distance, where he landed his best shots. Angelo acknowledges Diego's dangerous grappling and striking, and notes that Diego was close to finishing Volkanovski in the first fight. He suggests a prop bet on Diego Lopes winning inside the distance, as you get a refund if he doesn't and get paid if he does.
Big Brady leans toward Diego Lopes for the upset, citing that Lopes needs to be more aggressive and make it a 'car crash' to touch Volkanovski's chin, which has been cracked. He notes Lopes dropped Volkanovski in the first fight and started turning it on in the later rounds. However, he acknowledges Volkanovski wins a decision 90% of the time if it goes the distance, so Lopes must finish. Brady predicts a second-round knockout for Lopes.
Cody believes Volkanovski will win a decision similar to the first fight, citing his superior striking volume and takedown defense. He notes that Volkanovski landed 158 significant strikes in the first fight and that Lopes' ground game was ineffective. He acknowledges Volkanovski's age and potential decline but sees no evidence of regression yet. He picks Volkanovski by decision.
Connor picks Diego Lopes because he believes that Volkanovski is older and more vulnerable, and that Lopes has a puncher's chance that becomes more likely the more times they fight. He notes that Lopes is insanely fast and durable, and that Volkanovski's defensive decisions have worsened. However, he acknowledges that Volkanovski is still the more technical fighter and that Lopes could easily lose.
Daniel Vreeland picks Volkanovski to outclass Lopes again, citing his superior fight IQ, feinting game, and all-around skills. He notes that Lopes needs a finish to win, as he has a negative record in decisions, but Volkanovski is tough to put away and has already proven he can handle Lopes' best shots. Vreeland acknowledges Lopes' dangerous finishing ability but believes Volkanovski's adjustments and experience will prevail.
James picks Diego Lopes to win the rematch, citing Lopes' momentum from his KO of Jean Silva, improved camp, and admission of ego issues in the first fight. He believes Lopes will push a higher pace and force pocket exchanges where he can land a knockout. James notes Volkanovski's age and potential decline, and that the close odds (Volk -155) suggest the fight is a toss-up. He also mentions Lopes' durability and submission threat.
Volkanovski's fight IQ and tactical approach will allow him to execute a game plan similar to their first fight: jab, leg kick, takedowns to disrupt Lopes' rhythm. He out-struck Lopes 158 to 63 in their first bout, landing at 61% in rounds three and five. Lopes may be more aggressive this time, but Volkanovski's submission defense and ability to stick and move should neutralize that. The host notes that if Lopes wins, it likely comes by knockout, but he favors the better overall fighter. He suggests waiting for better odds on Volkanovski during fight week.
Paul argues that Volkanovski clearly won the first fight 4-1 and that the line is too close given that result. He acknowledges Lopes' improvements and Volkanovski's age but believes the champion's skills and experience will prevail. He sees a similar outcome, possibly a 48-47 decision.
The Guru picks Diego Lopes by TKO in round two, citing his performance in the first fight where he dropped Volkanovski. He believes Volkanovski's age, layoff, and lack of motivation will be factors, while Lopes has improved and has a lottery ticket mentality. He expects Lopes to finish him this time.
Zane picks Volkanovski, arguing that Lopez has atrocious defense and poor footwork, and that Volkanovski will walk him into jabs and overhand rights. He notes that Lopez might win with a puncher's chance due to his durability and speed, but believes Volkanovski's technical superiority will prevail. He also points out that Lopez is an opportunist who starts hot but fades if he doesn't get an early finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 1 | 74 of 135 | 54% | 86 of 154 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Jean Silva | 0 | 43 of 91 | 47% | 43 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 43 of 77 | 55% | 50 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Jean Silva | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Diego Lopes | 1 | 31 of 58 | 53% | 36 of 68 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Jean Silva | 0 | 33 of 71 | 46% | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 74 of 135 | 54% | 63 of 118 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 16 | 31 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 42 of 68 |
| Jean Silva | 43 of 91 | 47% | 26 of 67 | 10 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 42 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 43 of 77 | 55% | 36 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 53 |
| Jean Silva | 10 of 20 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Diego Lopes | 31 of 58 | 53% | 27 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 17 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 13 of 15 |
| Jean Silva | 33 of 71 | 46% | 21 of 56 | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-270); Lopes (+220)
Round 1
Mike Beltran is the referee. Lopes alnds an outside leg kick. Silva with a front kick close to Lopes’ chin. Lopes is attacking with low kicks. Another front kick up high for Silva, just missing the mark. Lopes with another low kick. Silva working the front kick. Silva throws a couple leg kicks of his own. Lopes gets a takedown to counters a Silva spinning back kick. Lopes wants to take the back. Silva gives up full mount instead. Silva wants to buck him off. Lopes cuts his foe with a downward elbow. He smiles and drops more elbows. Lopes alternates between elbows and punches and Silva gives up his back. Silva is in defensive mode. More elbows and punches for Lopes, who isn’t giving up mount. Lopes drops elbows on the smiling mug of Silva. He switches to punches and Silva rolls. Lopes continues the beating, but finally Silva breaks free. He is bloodied but ready to get to work. Silva jabs and rocks Lopes with a snap kick to the chin. Lopes goes bck to the leg kick and Silva lands a jab. Lopes avoids the snap kick this time. Lopes pumps his jab and Silva lands a left hook to the body. Silva with a right. Silva wipes the blood off his head and smiles as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Lopes
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Lopes
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-8 Lopes
Round 2
Silva comes out with a couple leg kicks. Silva with a right to the body. Silva steps in with a solid one-two. Lopes counters with a right during an exchange. Silva with a right hook and he smiles. Silva goes body-head, and he does it again. Lopes is eating heavy shots. That propels Lopes to fire back. Silva steps in with an elbow and he just misses a spinning back elbow. Lopes lands a calf kick and he advances. Silva rocks his foe with a counter right. Silva touches the chin of Lopes again, and now he’s opening up, landing punches in bunches. Silva is mixing in some elbows to his offense. They trade low kicks. Silva digs to the body, but Lopes counters with a right. A big right lands for Silva. Lopes is still in Silva’s face. Silva over extends and Lopes gets a takedown. He lands a series of rights from Silva’s back as he laces the right leg. Lopes slams Silva, but “Lord” rolls. Lopes is able to transition to side control during a scramble. Silva uses a single-leg to stand and he’s unloading now. They’re both trading heavy punches and a finish seems like it could be imminent. Silva kicks the body and is in pursuit of his opponent. A spinning elbow from Lopes — virutally the same one “Lord” has been using repeatedly — drops Silva near the fence.
The Fighting Nerds product is stunned, and Lopes tees off with ground-and-pound. Silva isn’t recovering, and the assault continues. Beltran has finally seen enough, and he waves off the fight to save a badly bloodied Silva.
In the aftermath of the stoppage, an upset Silva attempts to go after Lopes, but he’s held back by security. The slump for the Fighting Nerds continues, but there’s no shame in this defeat: This is a “Fight of the Year” candidate.
The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Jean Silva via TKO (Spinning Back Elbow and Punches) R2 4:48
Angelo picks Jean Silva, calling him the fighting nerds' last hope. He says Silva is a powerful striker, loose, creative, and composed. He notes Diego Lopez has dangerous BJJ and power, but his technique goes out the window as the fight goes on, and he is too busy coaching others. He thinks Silva will beat the hell out of Lopez, and the odds reflect that accurately.
Big Brady picks Silva because of his exceptional power and Lopes's poor striking defense. He notes Lopes has only two takedowns in the UFC and Silva has good takedown defense, so the fight stays standing. He predicts Silva knocks out Lopes, who has been knocked out twice before, in the third round.
Connor picks Jean Silva, emphasizing Silva's superior positioning and distance management, which he compares to Anderson Silva. He notes that Silva's natural feel for the fight and ability to remain unanxious will allow him to handle Lopes's pressure. Connor acknowledges Lopes's power and durability but believes Silva's style is better suited for an unstructured fight, where his innate skills shine.
The host believes people are realizing Lopes is not as good as he seemed. He expects Silva to dictate the pace, take the center, land big shots, break Lopes down, fend off takedowns, and eventually find a knockout, cementing himself as a top contender.
The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes, arguing that Jean Silva is being overhyped and that the 'Fighting Nerds' mystique has faded. He notes Lopes has championship experience, having gone five rounds with Volkanovski, and crashes well, which will trouble Silva. He believes Silva's loose, goofy style will be shut down when Lopes lands power. He predicts a second-round finish.
Zane picks Jean Silva, citing Silva's natural positioning and ability to evolve over rounds, which allows him to time opponents better as the fight progresses. He notes that Silva's lack of anxiety and tendency to stay composed under pressure will be key against Lopes's aggressive but unstructured style. Zane acknowledges Lopes's finishing ability and toughness but believes Silva's natural gifts and adaptability will prevail in an unstructured fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 158 of 259 | 61% | 165 of 266 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Diego Lopes | 1 | 63 of 194 | 32% | 71 of 203 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 31 of 48 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 24 of 52 | 46% | 27 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Diego Lopes | 1 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 25 of 45 | 55% | 25 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 9 of 37 | 24% | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 39 of 57 | 68% | 39 of 57 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 16 of 43 | 37% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 43 of 61 | 70% | 43 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 14 of 59 | 23% | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 158 of 259 | 61% | 136 of 225 | 8 of 14 | 14 of 20 | 142 of 237 | 7 of 11 | 9 of 11 |
| Diego Lopes | 63 of 194 | 32% | 49 of 171 | 7 of 13 | 7 of 10 | 59 of 185 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 27 of 44 | 61% | 21 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 27 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 11 |
| Diego Lopes | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 24 of 52 | 46% | 18 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 24 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 16 of 33 | 48% | 15 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 25 of 45 | 55% | 21 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 25 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 9 of 37 | 24% | 7 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 39 of 57 | 68% | 36 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 39 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 16 of 43 | 37% | 13 of 37 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 43 of 61 | 70% | 40 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 40 of 56 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 14 of 59 | 23% | 9 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 55 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkanovski (-155), Lopes (+130)
Round 1
In the UFC 314 headliner in April 2025, Volkanovski (27-4, 14-3 UFC) took Lopes (27-7, 6-2 UFC) to task across 25 minutes, with the Brazilian claiming one round on two official scorecards when it all wrapped up. With promotional matchmakers seemingly out of ideas or options, the Lobo Gym MMA product only needed a single win to get another crack at gold, while it serves as an immediate rematch for the Aussie. No matter the thoughts on the pairing, it is here now, and fans should appreciate “The Great” for as long as we have him. Walking out to “Down Under” by Men at Work, he holds the arena in the palm of his hand. Referee Marc Goddard receives the final assignment today and brings the two 145ers to the center of the cage, issuing their instructions and setting them loose after their respectful fist bump. It’s all up to them now.
Volkanovski moves directly to the center of the cage, circling towards the power right hand of Lopes. Volkanovski lands first with a low kick, and Lopes answers back. Chants in favor of the Aussie boom through the building. Volkanovski stays light on his feet, never staying on one place, and he switches stances a few times and absorbs a kick to the liver. Lopes intercepts him with a low kick, and he takes one in response. Volkanovski connects with a hard low kick, and Lopes retaliates with a head kick that gets blocked. Volkanovski shoots, and Lopes tosses him aside and tags him with a right hand while Volkanovski resets. Lopes bounces on his heels and absorbs a low kick and one to the midsection, and neither man seems ready to fully commit after two minutes. Volkanovski loads up on a right hand, and he rushes at Lopes to toss out two more big right hands. The Aussie checks a kick, and he parries a jab.
Lopes constantly changes stances, firing off his high kick while in southpaw. Volkanovski kicks him on the inner calf, and he chips away on the other side before Lopes can get to him. Volkanovski gets in and out with his low kick, and Lopes tries and fails to counter him back. Volkanovski pecks out with a jab, and he shoots for a speedy double and presses Lopes to the wall. “The Great” clasps his hands and looks to elevate Lopes, and he releases his grip and starts slugging Lopes with his right hand. Lopes frames off with his knee, and he breaks off and gets sideswiped with a right hand. Volkanovski clips Lopes with a flush right hand, who shakes his head at him. Volkanovski connects with another right, and Lopes flashes a grin but cannot deny he got tagged. Lopes drills the champ with a stern body kick right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Round 2
The fighters touch gloves to get started again, and this time, Lopes positions himself in the center of the cage right off the bat. Volkanovski measures with a jab out of range, and he leans back as a high kick soars past him. Volkanovski slips to the side when taking a kick, and he dings Lopes twice and has a kick bounce into the cup. Lopes does not cry foul, and they continue fighting. Volkanovski works both sides of the lead leg, and he jabs to keep Lopes busy. Lopes chambers and fires a leg kick to the back leg, and they whip additional leg kicks at one another. Lopes slowly pressures forward, scoring a low kick and crashing the pocket to sneak in a right hand.
Lopes charges in, and Volkanovski ducks away and gets off a left hand on the way. Lopes lands a hard leg kick and a right hand, and Volkanovski counters him as he takes a side step. Lopes flashes his own jab, forcing Volkanovski to rush him and start trading. Lopes hits him back, and he cuts Volkanovski’s right cheek. Volkanovski pays it no mind and rails Lopes with a ferocious right hand, and Lopes comfortably tanks a blow that would fell lesser men. Lopes draws Volkanovski into a brief slugfest, and he takes a few but manages to land at the end of his long right. Volkanovski bashes Lopes in the jaw with a one-two, and Lopes steels himself and races in for a takedown. Volkanovski jumps guard with a flying guillotine choke, and he falls to his back and laughs when Lopes and his slippery hair slide out of the submission. Volkanovski scrambles, and Lopes climbs on his back and wraps his arm around the chin. Lopes hangs on until the horn sounds, and the two high-five after 10 close minutes of combat.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Round 3
Round 3 The athletes once more greet with a glove touch, and Lopes leads off with a chopping kick. As Volkanovski is moving and listening to his corner, Lopes wags his finger at them and laughs. Lopes strides forward behind an elbow, skimming it off the raised guard. Lopes jabs to the head and body, and he skirts away from a calf kick. Lopes goes to the body when Volkanovski aims high, and the Aussie checks a low kick that zips towards him. Volkanovski reestablishes his jab, peppering the challenger to open up a right hand. Lopes pops him with his own to make Volkanovski take a few steps back, and he absorbs a flush right hand up top. They clash together, and Lopes gets the better of the exchange with an elbow on the break.
Volkanovski sits down on two fierce right hands, stumbling Lopes and transitioning to a takedown. Lopes stops the first try, knees Volkanovski in the belly and stops a second subsequent effort. Volkanovski resets and kicks the lead leg to open up his right hand, and Lopes answers with a single kick to the ribcage. Lopes just misses a huge right hand, and he avoids a similar one as the champ smiles. Both of these two are having a blast in the cage together, and they are not afraid to show it. Volkanovski leads with his jab, constantly moving to not get pinned down by the larger man. Volkanovski races in with a right hand, and he stumbles possibly from taking a counter right but he might have thrown himself off-balance. The champ pops right back up, and he proceeds to slam his fists in the sides of Lopes’ melon. Lopes drives home a knee to the liver, and he takes a jab as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Round 4
The two have reached the championship rounds again, and it has been remarkably close. Volkanovski comfortably jabs out and tosses his leg kick to disrupt Lopes’ forward movement, and he turns his lead leg to check an oncoming kick. Lopes scores an inside thigh kick, and he aims another to the same spot. The Brazilian fakes a takedown and eats a right hand, but not before landing an inside low kick. Volkanovski chops at the front leg and doubles up on a jab, and he uses that jab to come over the top with an oddly timed right hand. Volkanovski parries the jabs and steps in with a knee to the body, and he slides back just out of range of the counter. Volkanovski sinks in a crisp right on the nose, and Lopes is stuck jabbing him. Volkanovski clubs him with a pair of hooks on either side of the head, and Lopes grits his teeth and doubles up on an outside leg kick.
The challenger is met with jabs, and when he tries to answer, he turns to avoid the worst of a right hand. Volkanovski snaps the head back with a jab, one so effective that Lopes nods at him as if to celebrate the strike. Chants for the champ rain down once more, as fans had been silent and one could hear a pin drop in the arena. Volkanovski busts Lopes in the chops with a blistering right hand, taking advantage of Lopes coming at him with his right. Volkanovski lets fly a body kick, and he goes low and bangs it into the cup. Volkanovski is upset by the foul and goes to apologize immediately, but Goddard gets between them and has the champ go to a neutral corner while Lopes recovers. Lopes is good to go after 35 seconds, and Volkanovski is full of apologies. Lopes accepts them, and he marches the champion down and lobs a head kick at him. Volkanovski dodges it and kicks low, and he evades a step-in elbow. Volkanovski sees right hands coming and disengages before taking them on the chin, and his jab is a masterclass and his follow-up right is money. Lopes draws him into a big exchange, and Lopes lands as much as Volkanovski does. Lopes falls over when missing on a head kick, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Round 5
Five minutes remain in this match, one with scores that could range from 4-0 Volkanovski to 2-2. It could potentially be all up for grabs in this last round, and Volkanovski is quick to get right behind his jab again. The snappy jab has an extra impact as Lopes hair moves when he absorbs the blow, and he remains elusive and hard to pin down. Volkanovski shoots for a single, and Lopes answers with an arm-in guillotine choke. Volkanovski rolls through it and Lopes follows him upright by clinging to it, kneeing the champ in the head. Volkanovski drops his man with a right hand, and he chains a body lock and trip takedown into it the moment Lopes recovers. Lopes posts off his hands to get up, and Volkanovski holds on from behind and keeps to Lopes when Lopes spins. Lopes explodes and manages to take the champion to the floor, and during the scramble, he takes the back.
Volkanovski stands up, with a body triangle around his waist, and he promptly breaks the leg grip and calmly shucks Lopes off. Lopes transitions to a double, and Volkanovski hacks down with elbows before reversing the position and putting Lopes to the fence. Volkanovski trips Lopes up with his feet, and he swirls around to take Lopes’ back and drags the fight down again. Lopes hits a kimura to sweep him, and he chains it into an armbar. Volkanovski sits up and his arm is still trapped, so he keeps tightly pressed to the challenger rather than lean back to possibly straighten it. Volkanovski yanks his arm out of danger and sits on Lopes’ face, and he pumps his fist to the crowd with 30 seconds left while they go wild for him. Lopes tries for a Hail Mary leglock, and Volkanovski stands up and shrugs to Goddard when he does. Volkanovski lowers himself down, and he commences one final bombardment of elbows to punish Lopes. The audience is so loud, the fighters are lucky that Goddard knows when time is up because it is practically impossible to hear the final horn.
The fighters are happy that it’s over, after a combined 50 minutes of combat with one another. Barring something extreme, there does not need to be a third match between the two. As expected, Volkanovski has the belt wrapped around his waist, further defying the age curse that many imposed on him. The masses in the building practically blow the roof off when the victorious Aussie’s arm is raised. The defending champion is all smiles after facing a wrecking machine in Lopes, and he is proud to have his moment in Sydney in front of his home country faithful. “The Great” lauds his grit, determination and many other factors for his success to this date, and he is not ready to call it quite yet. There is no clear-cut contender at the moment, with the potential for Lerone Murphy and Movsar Evloev to establish that in London soon. He welcomes the challenge. When Volkanovski fights again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (50-45 Volkanovski)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (49-46 Volkanovski)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (50-45 Volkanovski)
The Official Result
Alexander Volkanovski def. Diego Lopes via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 50-45)
Connor picks Volkanovski, echoing Zane's reasoning about Lopes' lack of process. He emphasizes that Lopes' success is built on favorable matchups and short-notice opponents, and that Volkanovski has multiple paths to victory. Connor notes that Lopes' style is similar to Paddy Pimblett's but with better athleticism, and that Volkanovski's wrestling and fight IQ should be enough to overcome Lopes' early aggression. He acknowledges the risk of Volkanovski's chin but believes Lopes is not the same level as Topuria or Makhachev.
Daniel Levi picked Diego Lopes going into the fight, believing Lopes would catch Volkanovski and close the show as he normally does. He expected Volkanovski to be diminished from back-to-back knockout losses. However, he notes that Lopes was gunshy and hesitant after hurting Volkanovski, failing to pull the trigger enough, which cost him the fight.
Lucrative James picks Alexander Volkanovski to win, citing his superior skill set, cardio, fight IQ, and ability to win the minutes. He believes Volkanovski will dominate in rounds four and five, as Lopes has shown a tendency to fade late. He acknowledges the danger of Lopes' early finishing ability but thinks Volkanovski's experience and durability will carry him. He also notes that Volkanovski has taken a year off to recover, which should benefit him. The biggest worry is Volkanovski's age and potential decline, but he still sides with the former champion.
Zane picks Volkanovski because he believes Diego Lopes lacks a coherent process and relies on reckless aggression and counter-punching without controlling the initiative. He notes that Volkanovski has multiple paths to victory: pressuring, counter-fighting, or wrestling. Zane compares Lopes to Dricus du Plessis and Paddy Pimblett, suggesting his success is built on favorable matchups and short-notice opponents. He acknowledges Volkanovski's recent knockout losses and potential chin issues but sees Lopes as a step down from the elite fighters who beat Volk.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 63 of 195 | 32% | 69 of 201 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 106 of 206 | 51% | 113 of 214 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 29 of 57 | 50% | 34 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 | |
| 2 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 16 of 48 | 33% | 16 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 22 of 46 | 47% | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 32 of 102 | 31% | 32 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 55 of 103 | 53% | 57 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 63 of 195 | 32% | 52 of 180 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 61 of 192 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Brian Ortega | 106 of 206 | 51% | 75 of 172 | 13 of 15 | 18 of 19 | 75 of 161 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 38 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 15 of 45 | 33% | 11 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Brian Ortega | 29 of 57 | 50% | 24 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 26 | |
| 2 | Diego Lopes | 16 of 48 | 33% | 12 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 22 of 46 | 47% | 11 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 10 | 20 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Diego Lopes | 32 of 102 | 31% | 29 of 97 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 55 of 103 | 53% | 40 of 87 | 10 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 41 of 87 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 12 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lopes (-175), Ortega (+145)
Round 1
A backdrop of the Mexico City Metropolitan Cathedral is the fighting area for this next bout, one that signals the victory of Mexico in winning its independence. A relatively short-notice matchup between these upcoming fighters turned into a spectacle at UFC 303, when Ortega (16-3, 1 NC; 8-3, 1 NC UFC) realized that he would not be anywhere close to reaching the featherweight limit. When the weight cut down to 155 pounds still sickened him to the point of withdrawing from the bout, Lopes (25-6, 4-1 UFC) made modern UFC history when Dan Ige stepped in just a few hours before the match. Rescheduled for this September showcase and neither man having issue making weight, the two elite featherweights will settle things. Referee Marc Goddard draws the assignment for this intense 145-pound contest, and he checks the fighters in. They clap hands, and proceed cautiously. Ortega leads off with his boxing, sticking out a few short strings of punches. Lopes responds with a low kick, and a remarkably powerful barrage of blows that knock Ortega off his feet. Ortega recovers to try to escape, and Lopes follows him, lifts him up and hurls him to the mat like a side of beef. Lopes decides to get into the guard so he can hammer Ortega with ground-and-pound, and he shrugs off a triangle choke to bust up Ortega’s eye. Lopes lowers himself down again to attack, once more pushing past a triangle, and the cut on Ortega’s left eye is even worse. Ortega turns over to give up his back, and the Brazilian leaps on top of him and lays into him with right hands. Ortega works his way off the fence and smacks Lopes with an upkick, so Lopes responds by grabbing hold of the ankle and lowering himself down to attack. Ortega’s snake-like offensive guard threatens every step of the way, and Lopes appears to want to make a point by either submitting Ortega or playing fearlessly in his guard. Lopes cannot find a way in, so he backs off and beckons Ortega back to his feet. Ortega thanks him for this by landing a pair of punches, and Lopes returns fire to that damaged eye. Ortega plants two kicks in the inside of his foe’s leg, and he connects with an uppercut and a left hand. Lopes jabs his way in, and Ortega’s is far more concussive as he knocks Lopes back. Lopes scoops a left hook around the guard and square into Ortega’s jaw, and Ortega responds with a blitz that is met with an elbow. Lopes sticks out his jab and follows it with a low kick, and he checks a kick coming back his way. Ortega catches a kick and winds up a right hand, but Lopes beats him to the punch when wrenching it back and clips Ortega with a three-fist bouquet. Lopes loops a left over the guard, and he connects with three punches before Ortega can give one back. “T-City” plants a kick to the ribs, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Round 2
The two men high-five before engaging again. Ortega leads off behind his jab, and Lopes sways as his mullet follows behind him. Ortega boxes his way in, and has his chin checked by powerful punches from the Brazilian. Lopes walks through a jab to load up on a right hand, and he tags a speeding Ortega with a right hand as Ortega comes by him. Ortega lets his right hand fly as well, and Lopes ducks and works the body. Lopes gets off a few leg kicks, and Ortega shoots in for a single and is uppercutted several times to stop his approach. Lopes keeps working on the front leg during the lulls, and Ortega loads up on a pair on his own side. Lopes wings a right hand that is easily parried, and he hops forward with a left hook that just misses the mark as well. The looping Lopes right hand knocks Ortega back, and he shakes it off and eats a subsequent head kick like a chile relleno. Lopes darts in with two punches, Ortega pays him back, and they trade power shots. Lopes blasts the former title challenger with a leg kick that knocks Ortega off his feet, and a huge welt has developed on and around his shin. Lopes lets him stand back up, and he kicks the same spot once before Ortega races at him. The two trade jabs, and Ortega follows one with a straight right hand. Lopes’ counter combo bounces off the guard, and he slaps a low kick as Ortega fails on checking it. Lopes plants a right hand on the jaw at the end of three punches, and Ortega counters with a right up top and a few jabs. Ortega partially checks a chopping kick, and his jab reddens the nose of the Brazilian. The round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Round 3
The fighters clap hands one final time as the last round begins, and Ortega is not sure-footed as he slips on his front leg. Lopes scoops a left hand around the guard and nails Ortega’s swollen shin with another kick. Ortega jabs the body, and Lopes sits down on a left hook that clubs “T-City” on the side of the noggin. The featherweights trade jabs, and Ortega attacks his own leg kick. Lopes does the same with another kick, and he catches Ortega in the midst of a combination. Ortega stands in the pocket and trades leather, and Lopes clips him again but Ortega is right there to deliver punishment in response. Lopes absorbs several straight punches, and he loads up on responses. Lopes snaps the head back with bitter strikes, and Ortega remains right in front of him putting his hands in his face. Lopes chops the front leg and goes after a push kick, and Ortega catches the second but sets it down. Ortega sneakily works his way into a takedown attempt, and the Brazilian stops it in its tracks and pushes Ortega away. Lopes nails the front leg with his umpteenth kick, and Ortega pops Lopes in the chops with a big right hand. Lopes hurts Ortega with a right hand and a left, and Ortega wipes his eye as if he got poked, but it appeared to be a punch and not an outstretched digit. Lopes races at him throwing hands, but he ties him up and holds on instead of taking him down or otherwise attacking. They separate, and Lopes apologizes in case he was a poke after all. Ortega acknowledges it, and the two start slugging. Ortega fights behind his jab, and Lopes wobbles him twice with massive left hooks. Ortega’s chin is made of sterner stuff as he rarely backs off, but eventually Lopes’ left hook finds its home in the perfect way. Lopes sends “T-City” flying, and he runs after him and takes his back to try to submit the grappler. He bails from that submission setup to stand and bang for the remaining seconds, and he batters Ortega with a final flurry of fists.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)
The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Brian Ortega via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Diego Lopes confidently, having placed a full unit on him at -175. He dismisses concerns about Lopes fading in the third round of his last fight, attributing it to the chaos of multiple opponent and weight class changes on short notice. He believes Lopes is the better striker and grappler, and that Ortega's takedown accuracy is poor. He criticizes Ortega for missing weight and calls him a 'fat slob', expecting Lopes to steamroll him again.
Big Brady picks Lopes, citing his rapid improvement, youth, and hunger. He notes Lopes can win by decision or early finish, but expects Ortega's toughness to carry him to a decision loss. He predicts Lopes wins 29-28.
Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as a dog, citing his grappling advantage as the difference maker. He notes Ortega nearly submitted Alexander Volkanovski and controlled Yair Rodriguez on the mat. He believes Diego Lopez relies on scrambles, while Ortega catches people in scrambles. He trusts Ortega's grappling to hold up and likes the plus money.
Daniel picks Diego Lopes but with low confidence, citing Lopes' tendency to fade in third rounds and Ortega's legendary third-round finishing ability. He thinks Lopes will win a controversial split decision by taking the first two rounds, but worries about Ortega's durability and Lopes' cardio. He notes Lopes' dangerous hooks and Ortega's ability to weather storms.
Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes because he is bigger, younger, and can grapple a bit. He took Lopes last time and is sticking with him, noting Lopes is on a roll.
The transcript does not discuss this fight. The host covers other fights but not Lopes vs Ortega.
Lopez's BJJ background will save him from the threat Ortega normally poses on the ground. Lopez also provides more threats in the striking realm. Expects Lopez to win inside the distance.
The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes. He notes that Ortega is a slow starter and Lopes is more switched on currently. He believes Lopes has better takedown defense and grappling conditioning than Yair Rodriguez, and his striking is more consistent. He also mentions Ortega has taken a lot of damage and has had only one fight in over two years. He sees Lopes winning by finish or decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 42 of 77 | 54% | 67 of 103 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 49 of 100 | 49% | 90 of 143 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 4:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 2 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 17 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 51 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:10 | |
| 3 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 25 of 41 | 60% | 41 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 16 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 42 of 77 | 54% | 34 of 67 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 24 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 20 |
| Dan Ige | 49 of 100 | 49% | 32 of 74 | 8 of 14 | 9 of 12 | 38 of 85 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 9 of 24 | 37% | 6 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 22 of 47 | 46% | 16 of 38 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 37 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Diego Lopes | 8 of 12 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dan Ige | 12 of 16 | 75% | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Diego Lopes | 25 of 41 | 60% | 22 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 18 |
| Dan Ige | 15 of 37 | 40% | 10 of 27 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 33 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogODDS: Lopes (-275), Ige (+220)
Round 1
The sport never fails to surprise. As recent as a few hours ago, two-time former featherweight title challenger Ortega was planning on facing surging 145er Lopes (24-6, 3-1 UFC). That fight came together on quite short notice, and as a result, Ortega was unable to make 146 pounds comfortably—transforming the matchup into a lightweight affair. However, on fight day, Ortega fell ill and was forced out of the fight. In a first for the UFC, Xtreme Couture product Ige (18-7, 10-6 UFC), who trains in Las Vegas, is stepping up to serve as the latest-notice replacement imaginable. Again, this has never happened before. Ige hit the scale at 164.5 pounds today, making the 165-pound catchweight affair official—the magnificently mulleted Lopes weighed 161 pounds on the other side of the equation. The two will give it their all while referee Jason Herzog keeps things clean, and they decide to touch ‘em up before swinging for the fences. Lopes starts right out in the center of the cage, keeping his guard up to parry early jabs from the Hawaiian. Lopes lands a quick leg kick, ducks down and lets go with two fast punches. Ige comes in to swing, and Lopes dips to drive a counter knee up the middle. Ige counters on the way out, and they reset with Lopes pawing with a front kick. Ige misses a huge left hand, and Lopes catches him with a knee that spins his man around. Ige twirls and recovers without issue, evading the worst of the rest that comes his way. Ige shells up to protect against a few punches and a step-in elbow, and he lets Lopes bounce punches off his guard. Lopes sneaks in a knee, and he strings three punches around the guard as well. Lopes slams his shin on the outside of Ige’s front leg and flashes a jab, and the two in alternating stances hand-fight on the outer edge. Ige swings and misses, and Lopes meets him with a right hand before Ige backs off. Lopes whiffs with a jump knee, and he lands lobbing hooks from both hand. Ige prevents them from getting to him and pushes Lopes away, keeping his guard up to defend against a head kick that follows. Lopes winds up on a power right hand, and it is one-and-done as Ige lets it harmless clatter off the guard. Ige ducks down to race forward and engage in a slugfest, and Lopes drives him back with a combination punctuated with an uppercut. Ige walks through a low kick to shoot for a takedown, and Lopes hits the ground and instinctively snatches up a guillotine choke. Ige turns to the right direction, and Lopes adjusts his grip to set up a brabo choke. Ige keeps twisting and returns to his feet, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Round 2
The fighters jog towards one another to start the second round, where they share a fist bump. Ige is the initial aggressor, sliding in to deliver a straight left hand and slipping away to not get countered. Lopes chambers and fires a calf kick that spurs Ige into movement, and Lopes is ready for him coming in and tags him with a right hand. Lopes works on the front leg again, forcing a stance switch. Lopes tries to jab and is caught with a right hand behind the ear, and he shakes it off and meanders forward to let go with a leg kick. Ige returns fire with his own calf kick, prompting Lopes to loose a few body shots. A few jabs have opened a cut on the bridge of Ige’s nose, and he pays it no mind and slings a head kick that bangs onto the man with the mullet. Lopes grabs hold of it and chucks the Hawaiian down to the ground, where Ige scrambles and is quick to recover back to his feet. Lopes follows him and gets hold of him from behind, and he allows Ige to roll through so he can maintain the back control while locking down a body triangle in a hurry. Lopes softens Ige up with short, frustrating right hands, and he searches for a rear-naked choke but does not have a free hand to get it. Ige turns over to his knees, and Lopes adjusts his leg lock around the waist to keep Ige stuck in his grasp. Lopes smacks Ige upside the head a few times, and his search for the choke is fruitless as Ige maintains smart two-on-one wrist control. Lopes keeps bopping Ige with minor strikes, and Ige turns to his side and start slugging Lopes in the face with surprisingly powerful blows. Lopes transitions to an armbar with seconds to spare, and Ige turns over and rides it out to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Round 3
Lopes offers a double glove touch and pats Ige on the side to initiate the final frame, and he backs away to commence offense. The Brazilian reaches out with a front kick while adjusting his gloves, and Ige walks through it and a low kick to back Lopes to the wall. Ige loops a left hand over the top that brushes Lopes’ hair, and he tries again and does the same. Lopes gets off six punches in a rapid flurry while Ige chucks one bomb, and Lopes is not concerned about the flamethrowing Hawaiian. Lopes gets out a jab, and Ige touches him with a right hand that briefly wobbles Lopes. Lopes fires back with an uppercut, and he appears to have his legs beneath him again in a hurry. Ige charges swinging punches, and he walks into a leg kick that disrupts his movement. Lopes rushes him and nearly completes a takedown, but Ige scrambles to burst back to his feet. Ige walks Lopes down, who may be flagging, and he has his right hand ready to release. Ige releases it. Lopes takes it on the temple and absorbs a subsequent uppercut, and he digs a left to the body and right to the head. A huge left hand from the Hawaiian knocks Lopes against the fencing, prompting a desperation single from the Brazilian. Lopes manages to turn the corner and drive Ige down to a knee, and Ige stands back up with a hook around him as Lopes tries to make him carry their body weight. Ige forces Lopes to slide off his back, and he lowers himself down to the guard to bust Lopes in the chops with fierce punches. Lopes ties him up with a closed guard to ride out the clock, and Ige sits up to nail him with a stiff right. Ige postures up to deliver a single elbow on the cheek, and he rains two more down and smiles. Ige drops right hands on the midsection, and he lets loose with a number of pounding left hands. Ige is pushed up to his feet from Lopes’ legs after Lopes gets tagged, and Lopes upkicks him and flusters him until the final horn sounds. No matter the result, these two men should be proud of their performances and simply the fact that the fight happened. History was made tonight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)
The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Dan Ige via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Cody fades the hype on Diego Lopes and picks Brian Ortega. He argues that Lopes' wins are over lower-level competition (Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, Sodi Yusuf) and that his takedown defense is poor. Ortega, on the other hand, has fought the elite of the division and has shown improved wrestling, taking down Yair Rodriguez, Alexander Volkanovski, and Max Holloway. Cody believes Ortega's experience, durability, and Jiu-Jitsu will neutralize Lopes' grappling, and that Ortega has multiple paths to victory including submission or decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as the underdog, arguing that people are writing him off too soon. He notes that Ortega was a whisper away from submitting Alexander Volkanovski, and his grappling is at another level. Vreeland believes Ortega can hold his own on the feet and will get the better of scrambles. He compares this fight to Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez, where Ortega proved doubters wrong. He also questions whether Diego Lopes is as good as Yair Rodriguez.
Daniel is leaning towards Ortega (Ige) by decision, citing Ortega's durability, offensive wrestling improvements, and experience against top competition. He notes that Lopes has a poor record when fights go to decision (2-4) and that Ortega is 5-1 in decisions with the only loss to Volkanovski. He expects Ortega to weather early adversity and accumulate top control.
Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes, stating he is far more explosive on the feet, which is a concern for Ortega. He acknowledges Ortega's grappling is elite but notes that the Volkanovski fight was almost four years ago. Fox prefers the younger fighter who has been mowing through people and sees good value in the line. He admits it's a close matchup but leans Lopes.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host gives a slight lean to Diego Lopes, citing his momentum, confidence, and striking improvements. He believes Lopes has good enough defensive jiu-jitsu to avoid Ortega's submissions and should have a striking advantage. He notes Ortega has more high-level experience but thinks Lopes' style is perfect to beat Ortega. He mentions the line has moved from -160 to -125 and says he might bet if Lopes becomes the underdog.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that the market loves Lopes but that Ortega has never been finished and has fought the best. He points out that Lopes has low striking volume and questionable takedown defense, while Ortega has a proven ability to win decisions or submissions. Paul also mentions that Ortega's experience against top competition gives him a clear edge, and that Lopes' hype is based on flashy finishes over lesser opponents.
The Guru picks Diego Lopes over Brian Ortega (note: transcript says Ortega vs Lopes, but fight card lists Lopes vs Ige; likely a mistake in transcript). He is confident in Lopes, citing his dangerous striking and submission skills. He believes Lopes will be aggressive from the start, while Ortega may be hesitant. He notes Lopes' short-notice advantage and year-round training. He predicts a first-round finish for Lopes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 2 | 26 of 32 | 81% | 29 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 2 | 26 of 32 | 81% | 29 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 26 of 32 | 81% | 21 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 7 | 18 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 26 of 32 | 81% | 21 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 7 | 18 of 21 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lopes (-135), Yusuff (+114)
Round 1
The hits keep right on coming, as well-schooled fist-fighter Yusuff (13-3, 6-2 UFC) would like to professionally break down the surging Lopes (23-6, 2-1 UFC) in front of a wild crowd at the T-Mobile Arena. The lion’s share of Yusuff’s wins have come via strikes, while Lopes is an equal opportunity destroyer. Referee Mark Smith will need to keep his head on a swivel when overseeing these featherweights, and it does not feature a glove touch. Yusuff reaches out with a long low kick, and when that misses, he tries again. Lopes meets him with one that is checked. The two fighters trade calf kicks and little else, until Lopes springs into action with a one-two and a checked low kick. Lopes unloads with an uppercut that knocks “Super Sodiq” off his feet, and Yusuff collapses down to the mat. Lopes gives chase, pounding on his man, and Yusuff fights back to his feet valiantly.
Lopes rushes after him and smashes him in the face with another uppercut, and Yusuff crashes to the ground, totally defeated. Lopes, his mullet waving majestically behind him, drums out a flattened Yusuff with punches to the side of the head, with a seemingly unending barrage of strikes that only concludes when Smith gets between them to call a halt to the one-sided bludgeoning.
This is a huge moment for the meteorically rising Lopes, who will likely be ranked come Monday.
The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Sodiq Yusuff R1 1:29 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Sodiq Yusuff as the underdog, believing he is the much better striker with good fight IQ to avoid grappling. He notes Lopes has dangerous BJJ but will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds prop.
Cody fades Diego Lopes again, noting Lopes' wrestling isn't great and he stands tall, leaving himself open to be hit. He points out that Lopes has been taken down by Movsar Evloev and Gavin Tucker. Yusuff is a sharpshooter with good Jiu-Jitsu from Team Lloyd Irvin, and he has cardio and decent power. Cody believes Yusuff can use a point-fight style, staying at range and picking Lopes apart. He also mentions that Yusuff has takedown defense to keep the fight standing. Cody picks Yusuff as an underdog.
Connor picks Lopes, arguing that his relentless chaos and willingness to keep trying different attacks will overwhelm Yusuff. He notes that Yusuff often starts strong but fades as opponents adjust, while Lopes just increases the intensity. Connor admits that Yusuff could win by controlling Lopes on the ground, but he believes Lopes' unpredictability and durability will carry him.
Daniel Vreeland picks Sodiq Yusuff, citing his superior boxing, output, and defensive skills. He believes Yusuff can outpoint Lopes and avoid submissions, noting that Lopes is opportunistic but limited. Vreeland acknowledges Lopes' finishing ability but trusts Yusuff's experience and durability.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He calls it a banger and says he is very interested in it, but does not give a prediction. He notes that most people won't know about it unless they are hardcore fans, and that it will be on the prelims.
Yusuff has better experience and a higher level striking game. His takedown defense and ability to keep the fight upright will force Lopes to make mistakes on the feet, allowing Yusuff to counter and find a knockout in round two.
Paul sides with Cody, noting that Yusuff should have advantages at range. He acknowledges a red flag: Edson Barboza, not known for wrestling, took Yusuff down three times, so Lopes could get the fight to the ground. However, Paul believes Yusuff has enough takedown defense and ground skills to survive. He thinks the fight could go to decision and mentions the decision prop at +250. Paul expects Yusuff to keep the fight upright and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes to win by rear-naked choke, despite initially considering Sodiq Yusuff. He notes Yusuff struggled against Alex Caceres and that Lopes thrives under pressure. He believes Lopes's finishing ability and scrambling will be too much for Yusuff, who may be hesitant after a five-round war.
Zane picks Yusuff, believing his wrestling and clinch control will neutralize Lopes' chaotic style. He notes that Yusuff is a strong wrestler and physically powerful, and Lopes' car-crash approach often leads to him being controlled. Zane acknowledges that Lopes could catch Yusuff with a submission or knockout, but he trusts Yusuff's consistency and defensive grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 1 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Pat Sabatini | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 1 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Pat Sabatini | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 13 of 18 | 72% | 11 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 7 |
| Pat Sabatini | 7 of 12 | 58% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 13 of 18 | 72% | 11 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 7 |
| Pat Sabatini | 7 of 12 | 58% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-120), Lopes (+100)
Round 1
The main card is upon us, and it should provide a grappler’s delight as the two featherweights about to invade the Octagon combine for 23 submission victories without a single defeat via tapout. Aiming to prove he is not just a grappler, action-packed Brazilian contender Lopes (22-6, 1-1 UFC) will bring his 89% finish rate and try to threaten every step of the fight. With not a great deal of New Yorkers on the card, the UFC dipped into the Tri-State Area to pull Pennsylvanian Sabatini (18-4, 4-1 UFC) up onto the billing, and he too would like to showcase his jiu-jitsu chops when it counts. Referee Keith Peterson will draw the assignment for the pay-per-view opener, and the fighters quickly touch ‘em up. No nonsense will be permitted for the next 15 minutes or less. Both men bounce up and down while quite distant from one another, and Lopes tries to reach with a kick. Sabatini surges forward with a three-punch salvo that gets Lopes’ attention, and Lopes has to shake it off early. Sabatini jumps with a switch kick to the body, and Lopes looks to catch it but lets it go all while chants for “USA” rain down in support of Sabatini. The Pennsylvanian comes up short with another jump kick, and the two come together for a possible takedown effort of some sort. Lopes stands his man up with an uppercut as they try to get upright, and Sabatini is stunned when he tries to take a step back. The Brazilian immediately follows suit with a vicious right hand on the temple, and Sabatini might be out on his feet as he turns to another direction and his eyes go wide. Lopes will not let this fish get away, and he charges after Sabatini with powerful fists until pushing Sabatini down to his side. Lopes traps the Pennsylvania native’s arm behind his back and begins battering Sabatini with his free hand. Sabatini, unable to block his face and clinging to consciousness, gets knocked out, back in, and out again as Lopes punishes him with right hands. Peterson recognizes that Sabatini cannot defend himself at all, and he calls a stop to the beating. What a performance for Lopes, who likely catapults himself into featherweight contendership by wrecking a tough out in about a minute and a half.
The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Pat Sabatini R1 1:30 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Sabatini, believing his takedowns and BJJ will neutralize Lopes. He criticizes Lopes' takedown defense and striking, and thinks Sabatini will control the fight on the ground. He plans to bet on Sabatini later in the week.
Big Brady picks Diego Lopes as the underdog, predicting a second or third round submission. He likes Lopes' evolving striking, power, and dangerous submission game off his back. He worries about Sabatini's durability on the feet, noting he has been dropped early in fights. Brady thinks Lopes has more ways to win and that Sabatini will have to fight off submissions for 15 minutes.
Cody picks Sabatini, expecting him to get takedowns and control the fight on top. He notes Sabatini's suffocating top game and ability to avoid submissions. He thinks Lopes' guard is dangerous but Sabatini's grappling is good enough to avoid trouble, and he sees value at even money.
James leans Diego Lopes because he believes Lopes has a clear advantage on the feet with more power and a better chin, while Sabatini's wrestling may not be sufficient to consistently control Lopes. He notes that Sabatini has been submitted before and is chinny, and Lopes has submission upside. However, he acknowledges Sabatini could have control time on top, making it a tricky matchup.
Sabatini is the better wrestler and will dictate where the fight takes place. He is a good enough BJJ artist to fend off Lopes' submission attempts. Sabatini will control positions and grind out a decision win. The line at -120 is a good value. Notes that recency bias from Lopes' highlight finishes is inflating his line.
Paul picks Sabatini, emphasizing his wrestling and top control. He notes Lopes has been taken down easily in the past and relies on submissions from guard. He thinks Sabatini's suffocating style will neutralize Lopes' offense and lead to a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes, noting his superior Jiu-Jitsu and comfort on the ground, which neutralizes Sabatini's back-taking game. He also highlights Lopes' striking advantage, size, and reach. He predicts a TKO win for Lopes, referencing his recent performances against Movsar Evloev and Gavin Tucker.
Dan Ige - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Melquizael Costa | 1 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 26 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Melquizael Costa | 1 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 26 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 7 of 11 | 63% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Melquizael Costa | 19 of 40 | 47% | 9 of 26 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 7 of 11 | 63% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Melquizael Costa | 19 of 40 | 47% | 9 of 26 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Jacob Montalvo is the referee. Ige takes the center, kicks the leg and then lands a takedown. Costa is right back up as Ige presses him into the cage. Ige with a shoulder strike from the clinch. Costa is able to toss Ige to the canvas and then lands a knee to the body as his foe stands. They’re battling it out in the clinch, and Costa drives a couple knees to the midsection. Costa with another knee and then he shoves Ige away. Costa goes high with a kick, but Ige has his guard up .Another high kick from Costa is blocked. Costa follows yet another head kick with a front kick down the middle. Another front kick has hurt Ige, but he keeps his wits to survive a follow-up barrage from his foe. Costa steps in with an elbow, then lands a knee as he slides out of range. Ige forces the clinch, but Costa knees and separates. Costa follows a side kick to the body with a left hand. A leg kick lands on Ige. Costa backs up to the fence but leaps in with a knee.
With time winding down, Costa drops Ige with a beautiful spinning back kick to the jaw. Ige covers up on the canvas, and Costa unloads with about seven to eight standing-to-ground punches before Montalvo steps in to wave off the fight.
Costa has his sixth straight UFC win and in the process becomes the first person to finish Ige in 30 professional fights.
The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Dan Ige via TKO (Spinning Back Kick and Punches) R1 4:56
Angelo picks Melquizael Costa, citing his speed, busy style, and well-rounded skills. He respects Dan Ige's toughness and experience but believes Costa is the rising star. He also suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Ige as a potential prop, noting Ige often wins rounds even in losses.
Big Brady picks Melquizael Costa to defeat Dan Ige, citing Costa's hot streak and superior minute-winning. He notes Costa has more tools on the feet, including kicks, and that Ige is hittable and tends to lose decisions. He is concerned about Ige's last performance against Pitbull, where he did nothing. He predicts Costa will win by decision, picking him apart with volume. He mentions the line moved from -120 to -185, indicating public money on Costa.
Cody likes Ige at plus money, citing his recent performances against top competition (Diego Lopez, Lerone Murphy, Patricio Pitbull) where he won rounds. He thinks Costa's wrestling isn't proven and that Ige's cardio and power in later rounds give him an edge. He expects a decision win for Ige.
Connor picks Ige but with caution, noting that Costa is an opportunistic fighter who has been winning but often in messy ways. He points out that Costa tends to fade in the third round and that Ige is durable and a good counter puncher. He also notes that Ige has been impossible to finish and that Costa's lack of process could be exploited by Ige's experience.
The host favors Costa stylistically due to his size, length, and technical striking, but considers the odds too steep to bet. He notes both fighters are weak on the ground, and Ige has one-shot knockout power, making Costa a risky bet at -224. He passes on betting either side.
James picks Dan Ige as the betting side, believing Ige has better pocket boxing and power, and that Costa's cardio and durability are questionable. He notes that Ige has faced much tougher competition and that Costa's recent wins are over lesser opponents. James expects Ige to get a knockout, possibly in the later rounds as Costa fades.
Costa is on a five-fight winning streak with good activity and a kicking game that should trouble Ige. Ige is a veteran boxer but has struggled against high-volume strikers. Costa's range and kicks should keep Ige at bay, and he should land the more significant strikes. Ige could have success if he crashes the pocket, but Costa should win a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Ige's ability to win rounds against elite fighters. He points out that Costa has slowed down in later rounds and that Ige's takedown defense has improved. He thinks the fight goes to decision and Ige's experience gives him the edge.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige by TKO, feeling that Ige's composure and power will catch Costa. He notes that Costa sometimes throws lazy kicks and can be caught on the back foot. He believes Ige is the highest-level opponent Costa has faced and can time him for a KO.
Zane also picks Ige with the same caution, agreeing that Costa's success is partly smoke and mirrors. He notes that Costa is not a process-driven fighter and that opponents who are resilient tend to do better against him as the fight goes on. He believes Ige's counter-punching and durability will be key, but acknowledges Costa could win if he lands a big shot early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrício Pitbull | 0 | 47 of 124 | 37% | 59 of 145 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 55 of 97 | 56% | 71 of 114 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrício Pitbull | 0 | 6 of 28 | 21% | 10 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 | |
| 2 | Patrício Pitbull | 0 | 19 of 51 | 37% | 19 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 37 of 58 | 63% | 47 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 3 | Patrício Pitbull | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 30 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 17 of 33 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrício Pitbull | 47 of 124 | 37% | 24 of 93 | 15 of 23 | 8 of 8 | 38 of 109 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 10 |
| Dan Ige | 55 of 97 | 56% | 42 of 82 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 42 of 82 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrício Pitbull | 6 of 28 | 21% | 1 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 7 of 13 | 53% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Patrício Pitbull | 19 of 51 | 37% | 10 of 38 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 37 of 58 | 63% | 30 of 50 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 45 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Patrício Pitbull | 22 of 45 | 48% | 13 of 34 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 |
| Dan Ige | 11 of 26 | 42% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dan Ige, calling him a tough, durable journeyman who has fought top competition in the UFC. He is wary of the Patricio Pitbull trap after Pitbull's loss in his UFC debut. He thinks Ige's will and determination will carry him, but he won't bet on it.
Big Brady picks Dan Ige, citing Pitbull's age (38), declining durability, low volume, and lack of wrestling. He notes Ige has advantages in size, reach, volume, durability, and competition level. He predicts Ige wins by knockout, as Pitbull has been dropped recently.
Connor believes Pitbull's patient counterpunching style is a great matchup against Ige, who tends to rush in and make mistakes. He notes that Ige lacks a range game and often gets hit while coming forward, which plays into Pitbull's strengths. He sees Pitbull capitalizing on Ige's aggression with counters and takedowns.
The host believes Ige's volume output and ability to manage distance and pace will be key to shutting down Pitbull's power striking. He expects Ige to have a competitive first round but then chip away and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige over Patrício Pitbull, predicting a KO win. He criticizes Pitbull as a jack-of-all-trades but master of none, lacking dominant grappling or KO power. Ige is described as a short, stocky power puncher who can crack on the inside, similar to Michael Chandler who knocked out Pitbull. The Guru also references Pitbull's poor performance against Yair Rodriguez and believes Ige will put him away. He notes that Ige is a slight favorite and should be a bigger favorite.
Zane agrees, stating that Ige's style of rushing forward with flurries is exactly what Pitbull thrives against. He notes that Ige's lack of a range game and tendency to get hit while pressing forward will allow Pitbull to land counters and control the fight. He sees this as a much better matchup for Pitbull than the Yair Rodriguez fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 0 | 44 of 107 | 41% | 53 of 116 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Sean Woodson | 0 | 51 of 115 | 44% | 57 of 121 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 0 | 9 of 37 | 24% | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Sean Woodson | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 26 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dan Ige | 0 | 15 of 41 | 36% | 17 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Sean Woodson | 0 | 18 of 49 | 36% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Dan Ige | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 27 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Woodson | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 44 of 107 | 41% | 28 of 78 | 11 of 20 | 5 of 9 | 41 of 104 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Woodson | 51 of 115 | 44% | 36 of 98 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 51 of 115 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 9 of 37 | 24% | 4 of 25 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Woodson | 26 of 51 | 50% | 15 of 39 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dan Ige | 15 of 41 | 36% | 9 of 30 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Woodson | 18 of 49 | 36% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dan Ige | 20 of 29 | 68% | 15 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Woodson | 7 of 15 | 46% | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Daniel Levi picked Sean Woodson but never got the price he wanted, so he passed. He emphasizes the importance of getting the best number and not forcing bets. He notes that even though Woodson lost, he saved money by not betting at unfavorable odds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 52 of 100 | 52% | 78 of 133 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Dan Ige | 1 | 46 of 106 | 43% | 52 of 116 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 2 | 4:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 18 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Dan Ige | 1 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:30 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 36 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 12 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:43 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 24 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 3 of 17 | 17% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 52 of 100 | 52% | 36 of 77 | 12 of 17 | 4 of 6 | 37 of 80 | 12 of 16 | 3 of 4 |
| Dan Ige | 46 of 106 | 43% | 35 of 92 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 32 of 79 | 6 of 16 | 8 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 17 of 32 | 53% | 11 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 32 of 60 | 53% | 27 of 53 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 39 | 5 of 11 | 8 of 10 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 19 of 42 | 45% | 12 of 31 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
| Dan Ige | 11 of 29 | 37% | 5 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 16 of 26 | 61% | 13 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Dan Ige | 3 of 17 | 17% | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Lerone Murphy confidently. He praises Murphy's striking, footwork, and power, and believes he is too clean a striker for Dan Ige. He thinks Murphy's ability to mix striking and wrestling will keep Ige guessing. He also notes both fighters are tough and expects the over 2.5 rounds to be solid.
Big Brady likes Murphy in this fight, believing he has more paths to win and is better everywhere. He praises Murphy's striking in his last fight against Edson Barboza and notes that Murphy can mix in takedowns, while Ige has shown he can be taken down and controlled. He predicts Murphy will win by decision, doing better work on the feet and mixing in occasional takedowns.
Cody picks Lerone Murphy, citing his well-rounded skills, reach advantage, and recent win over Edson Barboza. He notes that Ige is undersized, has poor takedown defense, and relies on power that may not translate against a longer, more technical striker. Cody believes Murphy's volume and precision will overwhelm Ige, and that Murphy can mix in takedowns if needed.
Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Ige struggles when forced to lead and lacks range tools. Murphy's jab and footwork can keep Ige at distance, and his size and reach advantage should allow him to control the fight. Connor notes that Ige is dangerous in the pocket but Murphy can avoid that by fighting at range.
Daniel Vreeland picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision, highlighting Murphy's volume striking and top-five potential. He notes that Murphy out-landed Edson Barboza with 220 significant strikes over five rounds and that Ige's toughness and power are his main advantages. Vreeland believes Murphy's skill set and minute-winning ability will carry him to a clear decision win.
Lucrative James picks Lerone Murphy to win, citing Murphy's superior technical striking, fight IQ, and grappling upside. He believes Murphy is the better all-around fighter and can win via striking or takedowns. He acknowledges Ige's power and experience but thinks Murphy's calculated approach will prevail. He expects Murphy to look good and possibly call for a title shot.
Murphy is the better overall fighter with slicker striking and more damaging offense on the feet. He can also grind Ige out in clinch positions and take him down. Ige's boxing will be muzzled by Murphy's superior athleticism. Murphy wins on the scorecards.
Paul picks Murphy, emphasizing his reach advantage and superior striking. He notes that Ige struggles against bigger fighters and has never landed over 88 significant strikes in a fight. Paul believes Murphy's length and technical boxing will keep Ige at range, and that Murphy's takedown defense has improved. He also mentions that Ige's wrestling is not a threat.
The Guru picks Lerone Murphy by decision, arguing that Murphy's technical, well-rounded style is a bad matchup for Dan Ige. He notes that Ige struggles against fighters who can mix in grappling and fight at range, and that Murphy's jab, low kicks, and clinch work will outpoint Ige. He compares Murphy to fighters like Calvin Kattar and Movsar Evloev who have beaten Ige with technical breakdowns. The Guru acknowledges Ige's power but believes Murphy's discipline will earn a 29-28 decision.
Zane expected Murphy to win but noted he took the hardest path, getting caught early by a huge counter due to overstepping. He credited Murphy's durability and conditioning for bouncing back and winning. Zane emphasized that Ige is a dangerous pocket fighter with a great chin, but Murphy minded the pocket and won scrambles to secure the win.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ige is a counter puncher who struggles when forced to lead. Murphy's jab and range management should neutralize Ige's offense. Zane points to Ige's losses to fighters who kept him at range and thinks Murphy can replicate that.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 42 of 77 | 54% | 67 of 103 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 49 of 100 | 49% | 90 of 143 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 4:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 2 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 17 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 51 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:10 | |
| 3 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 25 of 41 | 60% | 41 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 16 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 42 of 77 | 54% | 34 of 67 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 24 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 20 |
| Dan Ige | 49 of 100 | 49% | 32 of 74 | 8 of 14 | 9 of 12 | 38 of 85 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 9 of 24 | 37% | 6 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 22 of 47 | 46% | 16 of 38 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 37 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Diego Lopes | 8 of 12 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dan Ige | 12 of 16 | 75% | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Diego Lopes | 25 of 41 | 60% | 22 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 18 |
| Dan Ige | 15 of 37 | 40% | 10 of 27 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 33 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogODDS: Lopes (-275), Ige (+220)
Round 1
The sport never fails to surprise. As recent as a few hours ago, two-time former featherweight title challenger Ortega was planning on facing surging 145er Lopes (24-6, 3-1 UFC). That fight came together on quite short notice, and as a result, Ortega was unable to make 146 pounds comfortably—transforming the matchup into a lightweight affair. However, on fight day, Ortega fell ill and was forced out of the fight. In a first for the UFC, Xtreme Couture product Ige (18-7, 10-6 UFC), who trains in Las Vegas, is stepping up to serve as the latest-notice replacement imaginable. Again, this has never happened before. Ige hit the scale at 164.5 pounds today, making the 165-pound catchweight affair official—the magnificently mulleted Lopes weighed 161 pounds on the other side of the equation. The two will give it their all while referee Jason Herzog keeps things clean, and they decide to touch ‘em up before swinging for the fences. Lopes starts right out in the center of the cage, keeping his guard up to parry early jabs from the Hawaiian. Lopes lands a quick leg kick, ducks down and lets go with two fast punches. Ige comes in to swing, and Lopes dips to drive a counter knee up the middle. Ige counters on the way out, and they reset with Lopes pawing with a front kick. Ige misses a huge left hand, and Lopes catches him with a knee that spins his man around. Ige twirls and recovers without issue, evading the worst of the rest that comes his way. Ige shells up to protect against a few punches and a step-in elbow, and he lets Lopes bounce punches off his guard. Lopes sneaks in a knee, and he strings three punches around the guard as well. Lopes slams his shin on the outside of Ige’s front leg and flashes a jab, and the two in alternating stances hand-fight on the outer edge. Ige swings and misses, and Lopes meets him with a right hand before Ige backs off. Lopes whiffs with a jump knee, and he lands lobbing hooks from both hand. Ige prevents them from getting to him and pushes Lopes away, keeping his guard up to defend against a head kick that follows. Lopes winds up on a power right hand, and it is one-and-done as Ige lets it harmless clatter off the guard. Ige ducks down to race forward and engage in a slugfest, and Lopes drives him back with a combination punctuated with an uppercut. Ige walks through a low kick to shoot for a takedown, and Lopes hits the ground and instinctively snatches up a guillotine choke. Ige turns to the right direction, and Lopes adjusts his grip to set up a brabo choke. Ige keeps twisting and returns to his feet, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Round 2
The fighters jog towards one another to start the second round, where they share a fist bump. Ige is the initial aggressor, sliding in to deliver a straight left hand and slipping away to not get countered. Lopes chambers and fires a calf kick that spurs Ige into movement, and Lopes is ready for him coming in and tags him with a right hand. Lopes works on the front leg again, forcing a stance switch. Lopes tries to jab and is caught with a right hand behind the ear, and he shakes it off and meanders forward to let go with a leg kick. Ige returns fire with his own calf kick, prompting Lopes to loose a few body shots. A few jabs have opened a cut on the bridge of Ige’s nose, and he pays it no mind and slings a head kick that bangs onto the man with the mullet. Lopes grabs hold of it and chucks the Hawaiian down to the ground, where Ige scrambles and is quick to recover back to his feet. Lopes follows him and gets hold of him from behind, and he allows Ige to roll through so he can maintain the back control while locking down a body triangle in a hurry. Lopes softens Ige up with short, frustrating right hands, and he searches for a rear-naked choke but does not have a free hand to get it. Ige turns over to his knees, and Lopes adjusts his leg lock around the waist to keep Ige stuck in his grasp. Lopes smacks Ige upside the head a few times, and his search for the choke is fruitless as Ige maintains smart two-on-one wrist control. Lopes keeps bopping Ige with minor strikes, and Ige turns to his side and start slugging Lopes in the face with surprisingly powerful blows. Lopes transitions to an armbar with seconds to spare, and Ige turns over and rides it out to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Round 3
Lopes offers a double glove touch and pats Ige on the side to initiate the final frame, and he backs away to commence offense. The Brazilian reaches out with a front kick while adjusting his gloves, and Ige walks through it and a low kick to back Lopes to the wall. Ige loops a left hand over the top that brushes Lopes’ hair, and he tries again and does the same. Lopes gets off six punches in a rapid flurry while Ige chucks one bomb, and Lopes is not concerned about the flamethrowing Hawaiian. Lopes gets out a jab, and Ige touches him with a right hand that briefly wobbles Lopes. Lopes fires back with an uppercut, and he appears to have his legs beneath him again in a hurry. Ige charges swinging punches, and he walks into a leg kick that disrupts his movement. Lopes rushes him and nearly completes a takedown, but Ige scrambles to burst back to his feet. Ige walks Lopes down, who may be flagging, and he has his right hand ready to release. Ige releases it. Lopes takes it on the temple and absorbs a subsequent uppercut, and he digs a left to the body and right to the head. A huge left hand from the Hawaiian knocks Lopes against the fencing, prompting a desperation single from the Brazilian. Lopes manages to turn the corner and drive Ige down to a knee, and Ige stands back up with a hook around him as Lopes tries to make him carry their body weight. Ige forces Lopes to slide off his back, and he lowers himself down to the guard to bust Lopes in the chops with fierce punches. Lopes ties him up with a closed guard to ride out the clock, and Ige sits up to nail him with a stiff right. Ige postures up to deliver a single elbow on the cheek, and he rains two more down and smiles. Ige drops right hands on the midsection, and he lets loose with a number of pounding left hands. Ige is pushed up to his feet from Lopes’ legs after Lopes gets tagged, and Lopes upkicks him and flusters him until the final horn sounds. No matter the result, these two men should be proud of their performances and simply the fact that the fight happened. History was made tonight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)
The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Dan Ige via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Cody fades the hype on Diego Lopes and picks Brian Ortega. He argues that Lopes' wins are over lower-level competition (Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, Sodi Yusuf) and that his takedown defense is poor. Ortega, on the other hand, has fought the elite of the division and has shown improved wrestling, taking down Yair Rodriguez, Alexander Volkanovski, and Max Holloway. Cody believes Ortega's experience, durability, and Jiu-Jitsu will neutralize Lopes' grappling, and that Ortega has multiple paths to victory including submission or decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as the underdog, arguing that people are writing him off too soon. He notes that Ortega was a whisper away from submitting Alexander Volkanovski, and his grappling is at another level. Vreeland believes Ortega can hold his own on the feet and will get the better of scrambles. He compares this fight to Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez, where Ortega proved doubters wrong. He also questions whether Diego Lopes is as good as Yair Rodriguez.
Daniel is leaning towards Ortega (Ige) by decision, citing Ortega's durability, offensive wrestling improvements, and experience against top competition. He notes that Lopes has a poor record when fights go to decision (2-4) and that Ortega is 5-1 in decisions with the only loss to Volkanovski. He expects Ortega to weather early adversity and accumulate top control.
Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes, stating he is far more explosive on the feet, which is a concern for Ortega. He acknowledges Ortega's grappling is elite but notes that the Volkanovski fight was almost four years ago. Fox prefers the younger fighter who has been mowing through people and sees good value in the line. He admits it's a close matchup but leans Lopes.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host gives a slight lean to Diego Lopes, citing his momentum, confidence, and striking improvements. He believes Lopes has good enough defensive jiu-jitsu to avoid Ortega's submissions and should have a striking advantage. He notes Ortega has more high-level experience but thinks Lopes' style is perfect to beat Ortega. He mentions the line has moved from -160 to -125 and says he might bet if Lopes becomes the underdog.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that the market loves Lopes but that Ortega has never been finished and has fought the best. He points out that Lopes has low striking volume and questionable takedown defense, while Ortega has a proven ability to win decisions or submissions. Paul also mentions that Ortega's experience against top competition gives him a clear edge, and that Lopes' hype is based on flashy finishes over lesser opponents.
The Guru picks Diego Lopes over Brian Ortega (note: transcript says Ortega vs Lopes, but fight card lists Lopes vs Ige; likely a mistake in transcript). He is confident in Lopes, citing his dangerous striking and submission skills. He believes Lopes will be aggressive from the start, while Ortega may be hesitant. He notes Lopes' short-notice advantage and year-round training. He predicts a first-round finish for Lopes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Andre Fili | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Andre Fili | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 11 of 19 | 57% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Andre Fili | 8 of 33 | 24% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 11 of 19 | 57% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Andre Fili | 8 of 33 | 24% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo calls this a 50-50 fight. Dan Ige is a fantastic kickboxer with good BJJ and underrated wrestling, having defended 10 takedowns from Bryce Mitchell. Andre Fili has all the tools but a questionable chin and tends to brawl. Angelo thinks if Fili wrestles, he can win, but expects him to brawl, favoring Ige. He suggests this is a great live bet fight.
Big Brady picks Dan Ige to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Ige is durable (never knocked out or submitted), hits hard, and has fought top competition, while Fili has been knocked out multiple times and has questionable striking defense. He expects a stand-up fight where Ige's power and durability prevail, dropping and finishing Fili.
Cody picks Ige, expecting a close decision. He notes Ige's durability and power, while Fili has been knocked out before. He thinks the fight will likely go to decision, with Ige's superior hand speed and pressure being key. Cody also mentions the Apex environment may favor Ige's impactful strikes. He suggests a prop on Ige by decision or the over 2.5 rounds.
Ige has crisp boxing, high fight IQ, and a great game plan. He should be able to counter Fili's unorthodox striking and potentially mix in grappling to open up his boxing. Fili has a reach advantage but struggles to land big shots against disciplined strikers. Ige's experience and reliability should lead to a decision victory.
Paul also picks Ige, noting Fili's experience but questioning if his wrestling is enough to neutralize Ige. He thinks Ige's chin and power are key, and that Fili's volume may not be enough. Paul mentions a possible Ige knockout, but leans toward Ige on the moneyline. He also considers a sprinkle on Ige by KO in round 1 at +850.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige because he follows game plans well and performs against opponents just outside the rankings. He expects Ige to chop low kicks and work his way inside, finishing Fili in the second round. He notes Ige's wins over Damon Jackson and his competitive fight with Bryce Mitchell.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 37 of 59 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 7:33 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 18 of 55 | 32% | 32 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 20 of 30 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 13 of 23 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 2:30 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 14 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 3 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | 23 of 40 | 57% | 13 of 22 | 7 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 8 |
| Dan Ige | 18 of 55 | 32% | 13 of 47 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Mitchell | 14 of 22 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 6 |
| Dan Ige | 10 of 25 | 40% | 7 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bryce Mitchell | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 6 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 8 of 26 | 30% | 6 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Bryce Mitchell | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Dan Ige | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-205), Ige (+170)
Round 1
In the co-headliner spot, fans will be treated to a striker vs. grappler affair, at least on paper. Longing to take this fight to the ground, Mitchell (15-1, 6-1 UFC) would like nothing more than to hand Ige (17-6, 9-5 UFC) his first career submission defeat. On the other hand, the Hawaiian is hunting for his third win in a row, which would continue his run up the logjammed featherweight division. Referee Mark Smith draws the charge for this big fight, and he looks confused when Mitchell grabs a bible out of his cornerman’s hand and holds it up while screaming “Freedom.” When that odd moment ends, Smith clocks them in. There is no glove touch, as Mitchell is on a mission. Ige jabs to start the fight, and he counters a kick from Mitchell with a hard right hook. Mitchell wears it well and backs off when Ige chases after him to land a few punches. Mitchell pushes off with a side kick, and Ige misses a hook by a matter of inches. Ige clips “Thug Nasty” with a right hand, and Mitchell leaps at him to go after a double. Ige pushes him over, lands a punch that slips open a cut on Mitchell’s left cheek, and backs off. Ige is calm as a cucumber as he measures his opponent, and his third hook connects on the chin. Mitchell charges for a takedown attempt, and Ige defends the first try but gets tossed down on the second effort. Ige works his way back up and separates without much concern, and he blitzes with a winging right hook that just misses. Ige doubles up on a jab, and he counters a low kick with a left hook. As Mitchell recoils from the blow, his kick slaps into Ige’s cup. Ige is good to go, and Mitchell offers an apology from the accidental foul. Mitchell runs at Ige, where he does not get the takedown but does push Ige to the wall. The Hawaiian defends until he doesn’t, as Mitchell uses a body lock to put Ige on his back. “Thug Nasty” lands in full mount, and Ige defends himself from any ground strikes. Mitchell sets up an arm-triangle choke, and Ige bucks to stop it. Ige turns to his side, swaying around to dodge all but a pair of punches. The round ends with Mitchell riding on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Round 2
Ige starts off the round flicking out several jabs, looking for his range so he can follow one with an overhand right. Mitchell pushes off with a front kick, and Ige belts him in the face with a left and a devastating right. Mitchell grimaces in pain and shoots in for a double, only to get turned around and elbows in the side of the head a few times. Ige stands him up, and the two jockey for position in the clinch. The Hawaiian slips away to restart in striking range, and damage has developed above and below Mitchell’s right eye. Ige loops a big hook on the busted eye, which splits open an enormous cut and draws some swelling. Smith calls time and brings in the doctor, but she clears Mitchell in a few seconds when Mitchell states he can see. When they resume, Mitchell tries for a naked takedown, and Ige tackles him over and lands on top. As Mitchell defends with rubber guard, Ige thinks better of the situation and stands back up. Mitchell follows after him, and he dives down after an ankle. Ige hops out of the way, parries a front kick and lands a right hand on the temple. Ige walks into a short left hand, and Mitchell times Ige’s blitz to take him off his feet and land right in mount. Ige keeps moving, turning to a side and then his knee. Mitchell follows him and takes his back with Ige leaning on the fence on his knees. “Thug Nasty” wrenches his right arm on the chin of his opponent, and he gets both hooks in and tries to flatten the Hawaiian out. Ige looks to slide out the back door, and Mitchell does not let him off the hook as he turns over to attack an arm-triangle choke. Ige defends it as Mitchell has him mounted, punching Mitchell in the side a few times. Mitchell lets go with the choke, and Ige bucks as the round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Round 3
Mitchell is once more cleared to keep fighting, even with the swollen eye and the serious cut above it. Ige peppers that damaged eye immediately when the last round kicks off, with a number of jabs. Mitchell replies with a body kick, and he runs at Ige to grab hold of a single. Ige gets taken down, but he is quick to power back to his feet even with Mitchell clinging to him. Ige turns Mitchell over, until Mitchell slides his legs around to keep the back take intact. Mitchell locks down a body triangle, and he switches it to the other side when Ige tries to break it. Ige slowly, calmly looks to spin in this position, and Mitchell hangs on without offering any offense of his own. When Ige is about to escape, Mitchell slithers over to take mount while Ige is on his back. Ige still manages to get upright, and Mitchell stays tight to him like a cheap suit. Ige leans up against the fence and shakes Mitchell with all his might to get some space. Mitchell elects to lift Ige completely off the ground to throw him down, and Ige lands and switches things around to turn Mitchell to his seat. Mitchell grips both of his hands on Ige’s left arm for a possible armlock, and Ige keeps tight from on top. Ige sits up to lean on Mitchell, and he moves into mount with 10 seconds to spare. Ige is unable to land anything until the horn sounds, and this fight could go either way depending on how the second round is scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Ige)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Ige)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Ige)
The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Dan Ige via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Mitchell but with very low confidence. He notes Mitchell's wrestling is dominant and his control is phenomenal, but his personal life is a mess and Dan Ige is a tough, experienced opponent. He is staying away from betting this fight.
Big Brady picks Dan Ige as an underdog, expecting a decision win. He analyzes Ige's past fights against wrestlers (Evalov, Korean Zombie, Bektich) and notes Ige was not controlled for long periods. He believes if Ige keeps the fight standing for at least half the fight, his striking advantage will win rounds. He thinks it could be a split decision based on damage vs control.
Cody picks Bryce Mitchell by decision, citing Mitchell's superior wrestling and physicality. He notes Ige's poor takedown defense (58% in UFC) and that Mitchell has dominated similar opponents. He acknowledges Ige's durability and power but believes Mitchell's game plan of takedowns and control will prevail.
Daniel thinks Mitchell's price is too high at -200 and sees value in Ige as a dog. He notes Ige's confidence is back after two wins, he's physical, and has never been submitted. He questions Mitchell's focus after a bad knockout and personal issues, and points out Mitchell's low striking output and reliance on takedowns. He believes Ige can win a split decision if he avoids extended grappling, and likes the plus money.
Lucrative James sees value on Ige at plus 170, noting Ige's power and takedown defense when fresh. He questions Mitchell's mindset after a loss and possible retirement talk. However, he acknowledges Mitchell could dominate on the ground. He considers a small shot on Ige but is not fully committed.
The host picks Dan Ige as a plus 180 underdog, citing Ige's takedown defense and BJJ black belt to neutralize Mitchell's grappling. He expects Ige to use his crisp boxing to draw out desperation takedowns and angle off, accruing damage on the feet. He notes Mitchell's striking is empty and only sets up takedowns, and that Ige's experience against better grapplers (like Movsar Evloev) prepares him for this.
Paul also picks Mitchell by decision, despite acknowledging Ige's live underdog potential due to Mitchell's injuries and personal issues. He believes Mitchell's takedown entries are sharp and that he will stick to his wrestling game plan. He mentions Ige's durability but thinks Mitchell's wrestling will be the difference.
The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell, believing his grappling will be the difference. He notes Mitchell's poor stand-up but excellent wrestling, and thinks he can take down Dan Ige, who struggled with Damon Jackson's takedown threat. He acknowledges Ige's wrestling at Team Alpha Male but believes Mitchell's positional grappling is superior. He mentions potential value on Ige by KO if Mitchell is distracted by personal issues, but expects a composed Mitchell to outwrestle Ige.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 1 | 88 of 184 | 47% | 88 of 184 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 74 of 195 | 37% | 74 of 195 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 0 | 14 of 45 | 31% | 14 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 12 of 44 | 27% | 12 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dan Ige | 1 | 41 of 78 | 52% | 41 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 30 of 69 | 43% | 30 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dan Ige | 0 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 33 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 32 of 82 | 39% | 32 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 88 of 184 | 47% | 61 of 143 | 19 of 31 | 8 of 10 | 78 of 169 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 7 |
| Nate Landwehr | 74 of 195 | 37% | 54 of 161 | 13 of 24 | 7 of 10 | 55 of 168 | 18 of 24 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 14 of 45 | 31% | 8 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Landwehr | 12 of 44 | 27% | 9 of 33 | 1 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 40 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dan Ige | 41 of 78 | 52% | 28 of 59 | 10 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 68 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 7 |
| Nate Landwehr | 30 of 69 | 43% | 20 of 57 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 59 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 3 | |
| 3 | Dan Ige | 33 of 61 | 54% | 25 of 50 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 30 of 56 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Landwehr | 32 of 82 | 39% | 25 of 71 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 69 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dan Ige, but is cautious about betting. He acknowledges Ige is the better fighter skill-for-skill, but Nate Landwehr's relentless pressure and unpredictability could cause problems. He compares it to the Jaime Malarkey situation where a favorite was put in parlays and lost. He will keep Ige out of parlays and not bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr to win a close decision. He notes that Landwehr is higher volume and can mix in takedowns, while Ige is more skilled but lower volume. Both are tough, but Landwehr's pace and wrestling could edge rounds. He expects a back-and-forth war and thinks Landwehr's activity will earn him the nod.
Cody picks Dan Ige by knockout, citing Ige's durability (Hawaiians don't get knocked out) and power advantage. He notes that Landwehr can get wobbled, as seen in the Julian Erosa fight. He believes Ige's quick hands and combinations will be too much for Landwehr, who tends to brawl recklessly. He took Ige by KO at +205, expecting a finish in round 2.
Connor picks Ige, emphasizing his technical improvement and durability. He notes that Ige has a great chin and has weathered shots from big punchers. He believes Ige's counter-punching and takedown ability will capitalize on Landwehr's reckless aggression. He also notes that Landwehr is not a technical fighter and often leaves himself open.
Daniel Levi picks Dan Ige, citing Ige's crisp boxing and power, and noting that Nate Landwehr has poor striking defense and gets chinned in almost every fight. He references that Korean Zombie said Ige was the hardest hitter he ever fought. He believes Ige will knock Landwehr out, especially given Landwehr's tendency to get tagged up early. He mentions that if Landwehr survives the early onslaught, he could take over late, but he sees Ige as the cleaner, more experienced fighter.
James picks Dan Ige to win, either by knockout in round one or by decision. He believes Ige is a level above Landwehr in MMA, with sharper boxing and heavier hands. Landwehr is a brawler who gets hit often and has been knocked out before. James thinks Ige's veteran savvy will prevent him from being dragged into a wild war, and that Ige will land the cleaner, more damaging shots. He notes Ige is four years younger and has faced better competition.
Ige's tight boxing and counter-striking should exploit Landwehr's wild aggression. Landwehr has durability concerns and has been knocked out before. Ige's power and accuracy should find a finish, likely in the second round. Landwehr could win if he overwhelms Ige with output and takedowns, but Ige's well-rounded game gives him the edge.
Paul picks Dan Ige, emphasizing Ige's endless cardio, speed, and experience against elite competition. He notes that Landwehr's wild brawling style leaves him open, and Ige's quick hand speed and combinations will clip him. He believes Landwehr's takedown threat is minimal because Landwehr prefers to stand and brawl. He expects Ige to win by decision or knockout, but his gut says knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige despite being a fan of Nate Landwehr, citing Ige's knockout power and Landwehr's tendency to get hit with his chin up. He notes Ige has finished fighters like Damon Jackson and Gavin Tucker, while Landwehr has been caught before. He predicts a late first-round KO for Ige, though he hopes Landwehr wins.
Zane picks Ige, noting that Landwehr's style is to build momentum without a foundation, which can be exploited by a disciplined fighter like Ige. He believes Ige will have many opportunities to counter Landwehr's wild attacks and that Ige's takedowns will be effective. He also notes that Landwehr is not as fast as Ige.
Expert Picks (8)
Cody fades the hype on Diego Lopes and picks Brian Ortega. He argues that Lopes' wins are over lower-level competition (Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, Sodi Yusuf) and that his takedown defense is poor. Ortega, on the other hand, has fought the elite of the division and has shown improved wrestling, taking down Yair Rodriguez, Alexander Volkanovski, and Max Holloway. Cody believes Ortega's experience, durability, and Jiu-Jitsu will neutralize Lopes' grappling, and that Ortega has multiple paths to victory including submission or decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as the underdog, arguing that people are writing him off too soon. He notes that Ortega was a whisper away from submitting Alexander Volkanovski, and his grappling is at another level. Vreeland believes Ortega can hold his own on the feet and will get the better of scrambles. He compares this fight to Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez, where Ortega proved doubters wrong. He also questions whether Diego Lopes is as good as Yair Rodriguez.
Daniel is leaning towards Ortega (Ige) by decision, citing Ortega's durability, offensive wrestling improvements, and experience against top competition. He notes that Lopes has a poor record when fights go to decision (2-4) and that Ortega is 5-1 in decisions with the only loss to Volkanovski. He expects Ortega to weather early adversity and accumulate top control.
Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes, stating he is far more explosive on the feet, which is a concern for Ortega. He acknowledges Ortega's grappling is elite but notes that the Volkanovski fight was almost four years ago. Fox prefers the younger fighter who has been mowing through people and sees good value in the line. He admits it's a close matchup but leans Lopes.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host gives a slight lean to Diego Lopes, citing his momentum, confidence, and striking improvements. He believes Lopes has good enough defensive jiu-jitsu to avoid Ortega's submissions and should have a striking advantage. He notes Ortega has more high-level experience but thinks Lopes' style is perfect to beat Ortega. He mentions the line has moved from -160 to -125 and says he might bet if Lopes becomes the underdog.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that the market loves Lopes but that Ortega has never been finished and has fought the best. He points out that Lopes has low striking volume and questionable takedown defense, while Ortega has a proven ability to win decisions or submissions. Paul also mentions that Ortega's experience against top competition gives him a clear edge, and that Lopes' hype is based on flashy finishes over lesser opponents.
The Guru picks Diego Lopes over Brian Ortega (note: transcript says Ortega vs Lopes, but fight card lists Lopes vs Ige; likely a mistake in transcript). He is confident in Lopes, citing his dangerous striking and submission skills. He believes Lopes will be aggressive from the start, while Ortega may be hesitant. He notes Lopes' short-notice advantage and year-round training. He predicts a first-round finish for Lopes.
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