UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, believing he will dominate Bobby Green with his wrestling and grappling. He notes that while Green is a better striker, Makhachev has enough striking to avoid getting hurt and will then take the fight to the ground where he can control and finish. Angelo acknowledges that Makhachev hasn't faced top-ranked opponents yet, but he expects him to blow through Green as a heavy favorite. He also mentions a two-unit parlay with Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan at around -180.

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by submission. He notes that Makhachev absorbs only 0.79 significant strikes per minute and no opponent has landed more than 13 strikes on him in the UFC. He highlights that Bobby Green has never faced a wrestler or grappler of Makhachev's caliber and has been taken down by lesser fighters. Brady believes Green's path to victory is a knockout, but Green hasn't knocked anyone out since 2013. He respects Green for stepping in on short notice but sees this as a terrible matchup for him.

Cody is confident in Makhachev's grappling dominance, citing his wins over Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Thiago Moises. He notes that Makhachev's style mirrors Khabib's and that Bobby Green's path to victory is a knockout, which is unlikely given Green's lack of one-punch power. Cody acknowledges the wide odds but still picks Makhachev as a top parlay piece, though he mentions hedging with a small bet on Green by KO at +1100.

Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win via submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes that Bobby Green is durable and will stuff early takedowns, but Makhachev's relentless pressure will eventually wear him down. Levi mentions the fight goes the distance is plus 250 but does not think Green can survive five rounds. He emphasizes Makhachev's point to prove and expects a statement finish.

Jacob picks Islam Makhachev but is hesitant, stating that if Bobby Green had a full camp, he would have been his lock of the week. He believes Green's pressure and volume are the best defense against takedowns, and that Green's unorthodox boxing could trouble Makhachev. Jacob thinks Makhachev might try to stand and prove a point, but ultimately expects him to win via wrestling. He also mentions placing a half-unit bet on Green at +550, showing his uncertainty.

Makhachev is a heavy favorite at -800, and the host believes he will dominate with his wrestling. He expects Makhachev to repeatedly take Green down and control him on the ground, though he thinks Green's defensive grappling may prevent a finish. The host notes Green's lack of power and predicts Makhachev wins by decision, also suggesting a bet on over 1.5 rounds.

Paul agrees that Makhachev is the clear winner but is tempted to sprinkle on Bobby Green at +600 due to the wide line. He notes Green's volume and pace could make it competitive if he avoids takedowns, but ultimately sees Makhachev's grappling as too much. Paul mentions the line has moved from -700 to -900, making it less appealing for a straight bet.

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win by third-round rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Bobby Green's counter-grappling and durability but believes Makhachev's size, physicality, and superior grappling will be too much. He notes that Green's output drops significantly when facing wrestlers, as seen against Thiago Moises and Francisco Trinaldo. The Guru also highlights that the catchweight of 160 lbs benefits Makhachev by easing his weight cut, potentially improving his chin and conditioning. He expects Makhachev to wear Green down against the cage, take his back in a scramble, and secure the choke in the third round.

Big Brady picks Misha Cirkunov to win, likely by first-round TKO. He notes Cirkunov is much bigger with a five-inch reach advantage and has very good wrestling and grappling, having submitted legit light heavyweights. He criticizes Turman's striking defense and negative strike differential, and points out that Turman was outgrappled by Carl Roberson. Brady believes Cirkunov can win on the feet or on the mat, and sees Turman's path to victory as unlikely.

Cody picks Turman as an underdog, citing his youth (25), better cardio, and training at Glover Teixeira's gym. He notes Cirkunov's poor striking, declining chin, and inability to get takedowns against Giaco. Cody believes Turman's volume and durability will pay off as Cirkunov fades, and he plans to live-bet Turman if Cirkunov doesn't finish early.

Daniel Levi picks Wellington Turman to edge out a decision. He questions Misha Cirkunov's heart and notes he has folded in tough fights. Levi believes Turman is hungrier and more confident after his last win, and that Cirkunov's best days are behind him. He warns that Turman must avoid getting finished early but expects him to pull away down the stretch.

The host leans with Cirkunov, believing he will be stronger and craftier in grappling exchanges. He expects Cirkunov to land takedowns and assert top position, eventually finding a finish via submission or ground and pound. He notes both fighters have durability and fight IQ issues but favors Cirkunov's jiu-jitsu from the top. His favorite play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' at -190.

Paul leans toward Turman as an underdog, noting both fighters are chinny but Turman has better volume and striking. He parlayed the over 1.5 rounds in this fight with Gegard Mousasi at +128. Paul sees this as a competitive fight that could go either way, but Turman's cardio and youth give him an edge.

The MMA Guru picks Misha Cirkunov to win by arm-triangle submission in the second round. He believes Cirkunov's size, physicality, and strong grappling will be too much for Wellington Turman, who has been taken down and finished by lesser grapplers. He notes that Turman has been KO'd multiple times and that Cirkunov's experience and strength will tip the grappling exchanges in his favor. The Guru expects a close fight on the feet but sees Cirkunov securing dominant positions and finishing with an arm triangle.

Big Brady picks Ji Yeon Kim to win by decision. He notes Kim has a seven-inch reach advantage and throws high volume, while Cachoeira absorbs 6.97 significant strikes per minute with terrible defense. He calls Cachoeira 'ketchup cheating' and says she is very hittable. Brady thinks Kim is more defensively sound and will outwork Cachoeira, though he acknowledges both fighters are low level and the fight is on the main card surprisingly.

Cody leans toward Cachoeira as a dog, noting her pressure and power could overwhelm Kim, who lacks takedown ability. He mentions Kim's reach advantage but doubts her power to keep Cachoeira off. Cody calls it a 'dog or pass' fight and suggests Cachoeira inside the distance at +400 as a possible bet.

Daniel Levi picks Ji Yeon Kim to win by decision. He notes Kim has a reach and volume advantage, and that she has been training in Vegas to avoid jet lag. Levi is concerned that Kim's fights sometimes play out too close, but believes her durability and technical boxing will overcome Cachoeira's power. He mentions Cachoeira is predictable and lacks ground game.

The host leans with Kim due to her more refined striking and better technique, expecting her to stay on the back foot and land jabs and one-twos while avoiding Cachoeira's power shots. He notes Cachoeira is flat-footed and lacks speed, which could be her downfall. However, he is not confident enough to bet at -165, saying the margin for error is thin for Kim. He predicts a decision win for Kim.

Paul leans toward Kim, citing her improved volume and defense in recent fights, especially against Molly McCann. He notes Cachoeira's poor technique and tendency to gas, and believes Kim's volume will take over as the fight progresses. However, he acknowledges women's MMA volatility and calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

The MMA Guru picks Ji Yeon Kim to win by 30-27 unanimous decision. He cites Kim's significant reach advantage (72 inches vs 66-67) and believes the fight will stay on the feet, where Kim's range and cardio will allow her to outpoint Cachoeira. He references their common opponent Molly McCann, noting that Kim had a closer fight with McCann than Cachoeira did. The Guru expects competitive rounds but sees Kim pulling ahead as the fight progresses.

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win inside the distance. He notes Alvarez has a massive eight-inch height and 4.5-inch reach advantage, and is dangerous everywhere: striking and submissions. He points out that Tsarukyan's wrestling could play into Alvarez's game, as Alvarez has a 0% takedown defense but is very dangerous off his back with multiple submission wins. Brady was initially surprised that money was coming in on Alvarez but now sees it as justified. He believes Alvarez can finish by knockout or submission.

Cody picks Tsarukyan by decision, citing his superior speed, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Alvarez's submission threats but believes Tsarukyan's head placement and takedown defense will keep him safe. Cody mentions Tsarukyan's camp in Russia as a slight concern but still sees him winning via volume and takedowns.

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by decision. He emphasizes Tsarukyan's relentless takedown game and ability to neutralize submissions. Levi notes Alvarez is dangerous with submissions off his back and has knockout power, but believes Tsarukyan will avoid standing and grind out a win. He disagrees with the dog-or-pass label and expects Tsarukyan to cover the spread.

The host hesitantly picks Alvarez as an underdog, citing his size, confidence, and finishing streak. He believes Alvarez can keep the fight standing and land big strikes, potentially drawing a desperation takedown from Tsarukyan that could lead to a guillotine. He acknowledges Tsarukyan is a top prospect but thinks the odds are too wide and Alvarez deserves more respect. He predicts a second-round TKO.

Paul agrees with Tsarukyan by decision, emphasizing his wrestling and striking advantage. He notes Alvarez's improved striking but trusts Tsarukyan's ability to mix takedowns and avoid submissions. Paul suggests waiting for a better price on Tsarukyan as the line may move.

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez to win, calling it a 51-49 lean. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's skills but believes Alvarez's size, reach, and power are decisive factors. He notes that Alvarez is much bigger and may have a weight advantage, and that his immediate damaging shots (elbows, guillotines) give him more paths to victory. The Guru expects Tsarukyan to win by decision if he wins, while Alvarez can finish early by TKO or submission. He also mentions Alvarez's chin held up against Thiago Moises.

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by first-round submission. He notes Petrosyan's takedown defense is a huge liability and that every Petrosyan fight follows a pattern where he gets taken down early, his opponent gasses, and then he finishes. Brady believes Rodrigues has elite BJJ and can submit Petrosyan if he gets him down. However, he is hesitant because Rodrigues has been knocked out before and his gas tank is questionable if the fight goes past the first round.

Cody picks Petrosyan as an underdog, citing his striking power, leg kicks, and improved takedown defense from training in Dagestan. He notes Rodrigues' questionable chin and cardio, and believes Petrosyan can knock him out if he avoids grappling. Cody calls it a 'dog or pass' fight.

Daniel Levi picks Gregory Rodrigues to win via submission. He highlights Rodrigues' size, physicality, and black belt, and notes Petrosyan has been knocked out before. Levi warns that if Rodrigues gets cocky and stands with Petrosyan, he could get knocked out, but expects Rodrigues to take him down and submit him. He mentions Petrosyan's ability to survive bad positions and come back, but thinks Rodrigues' experience is the difference.

The host likes Petrosyan as an underdog, believing his striking is superior and that he will defend takedowns well. He expects Rodrigues to struggle to get the fight to the ground and gas out, allowing Petrosyan to find a knockout in the second or third round. He compares the matchup to Jared Cannonier vs Derek Brunson and thinks Petrosyan deserves to be the slight favorite.

Paul picks Rodrigues by submission, noting his size, strength, and BJJ black belt. He believes Rodrigues should take Petrosyan down and submit him, though he acknowledges Rodrigues' chin is a concern. Paul placed a small bet on Rodrigues by submission at +400.

The MMA Guru picks Armen Petrosyan to win by KO in the second round. He acknowledges Gregory Rodrigues' power and recent improvements in grappling but notes that Rodrigues has shown a questionable chin and gassing issues, as seen in his fight with Park and Yong. The Guru believes Petrosyan's diverse striking (head kicks, body shots) and ability to stay calm in bad positions will be key. He expects a high-paced first round with grappling from Rodrigues, followed by Petrosyan landing a KO blow in the second as Rodrigues slows down.

Big Brady picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by decision. He praises Bahamondes' takedown defense shown against Roosevelt Roberts, where he stuffed 12 takedowns. He notes Bahamondes throws high volume (over 7.5 significant strikes per minute) and has a significant reach advantage. He criticizes Rong Zhu's striking, pointing out that he was outlanded 94-40 by Kazula Vargas at distance. Brady believes Bahamondes will keep the fight on the feet and outwork Zhu.

Cody picks Bahamondes by decision, citing his size, volume, and takedown defense. He notes Bahamondes' improvement and ability to stuff takedowns, while Zhu is still raw. Cody likes the decision prop at +150 and plans to bet it later in the week.

Daniel Levi leans Ignacio Bahamondes but is cautious. He notes Bahamondes has a tendency to fight to the level of his competition and sometimes underperforms. Levi praises Bahamondes' striking and chin, but worries about Rong Zhu's talent and youth. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and says if Bahamondes performs to his potential, he wins.

The host is confident in Bahamondes, citing his volume striking, takedown defense, and ability to overwhelm opponents. He notes that Bahamondes stuffed takedowns from Roosevelt Roberts and expects similar success against Rong Zhu. He thinks Rong Zhu's only chance is a knockout, but Bahamondes should control the fight and win by decision.

Paul agrees with Bahamondes by decision, noting his pressure, volume, and takedown defense. He acknowledges Zhu's power but believes Bahamondes' size and output will win rounds. Paul also likes the decision prop at +150.

The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by 29-28 decision. He believes Bahamondes has more potential and a higher ceiling than Rong Zhu, citing Bahamondes' impressive performance against Roosevelt Roberts and his toughness in the John McDermott fight. He criticizes Zhu's loss to Rodrigo Vargas and thinks Bahamondes will pressure Zhu, lose the first round, but come back in the second and third with better pacing to take Zhu into deep waters and win the last two rounds.

Big Brady picks Josiane Nunes to win by first-round knockout. He notes Nunes has power and aggression, and that Pascual's competition has been very low level. However, he is hesitant because Pascual has improved training at Syndicate MMA and is much bigger. He also flags that Nunes has been taken down and gassed out in the past. He calls the fight 'sketchy' and says he doesn't know enough about Pascual to be confident.

Cody picks Nunes confidently, citing her pressure, power, and durability. He notes Pascual's low level of competition and poor takedown defense. Cody expects Nunes to win by knockout or decision, but hesitates due to women's MMA volatility.

Daniel Levi picks Josiane Nunes to win. He notes Nunes has one-hitter-quitter power rare for women's divisions, and that Pascual has not faced that level of competition. Levi acknowledges Pascual's size and ground game as potential threats, but believes Nunes' power and experience will be too much. He expects a spectacular finish.

The host leans with Pascual as an underdog, believing her grappling will be the key. He notes that Nunes has been taken down easily in the past and that Pascual should be able to drag the fight to the ground and control her there. However, he has concerns about Pascual's level of competition and is not confident enough to bet, but he considers the decision prop at +350.

Paul picks Nunes, noting her nuclear left hand and aggressive style. He believes Pascual is a warm body taking the fight on short notice and expects Nunes to finish her. Paul considered the knockout prop but found it juiced to -110.

The MMA Guru picks Josiane Nunes to win by first-round KO. He describes Nunes as a 'lab experiment' with monstrous power, noting her first-round KO of Bea Malecki and her regional knockouts. He believes Pascual is outmatched and that Nunes will land the KO blow early. He mentions that Pascual has been TKO'd before by ground and pound, and trusts Nunes' brutal hands to finish the fight in the first round.

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round submission. He notes McKinney has underrated wrestling and grappling, with a 55% submission rate. He believes McKinney can take Ziam down and finish early, as Ziam has been taken down and submitted before. However, he is concerned about McKinney's cardio if the fight goes past the first round, as McKinney has never seen the scorecards and has gassed in previous fights. He suggests live betting on Ziam if the fight reaches the second round.

Cody leans toward McKinney due to his explosive early pace, but he bet under 2.5 rounds at -123. He notes McKinney's cardio issues but believes the fight ends early either by McKinney's finish or Ziam's counter. Cody sees Ziam as a live dog if he survives the first round.

Daniel Levi picks Farès Ziam to win. He believes Ziam is the better fighter with good range and reads, and that McKinney's head is not straight. Levi expects McKinney to come out hard but fade if he doesn't get an early finish, and Ziam will pull away down the stretch. He notes Ziam has been training grappling and is more focused.

The host picks McKinney despite being a slight underdog, expecting him to land a takedown and overwhelm Ziam with ground and pound or a submission in the first round. He notes McKinney's explosive style and power from top position, while Ziam is a good kickboxer but may struggle to keep the fight standing. He prefers betting under 2.5 rounds and mentions McKinney round 1 prop at +300.

Paul leans toward Ziam as a dog, citing McKinney's poor cardio and submission defense. He notes Ziam's improved wrestling and durability, and believes if Ziam survives the first round, he can take over. Paul suggests live betting Ziam if McKinney doesn't finish early.

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win, either by first-round KO or decision. He is surprised McKinney is an underdog, noting that 77% of fans are picking him. He believes McKinney has a power advantage over Ziam, who lacks KO power. The Guru thinks the fight will be close on the feet and in grappling, but McKinney's power and speed could lead to an early finish or cause Ziam to become gun-shy. He sees McKinney dropping Ziam in a round and winning a decision if not finishing early.

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez to win by decision. He praises Martinez's striking volume, accuracy, and takedown defense. He criticizes Perez's recent performance against a 45-year-old Johnny Eduardo, where Perez was outlanded and looked poor on the feet. Brady believes Martinez is younger, improving, and training at a good camp. He thinks Perez's takedown attempts will be ineffective and that Martinez will pick him apart on the feet.

Cody picks Martinez confidently, citing his striking, takedown defense, and youth. He notes Pérez's declining chin, low volume, and poor takedown accuracy. Cody believes Martinez wins by volume and suggests watching weigh-ins due to Martinez's past weight issues.

Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Martinez to win, possibly by knockout. He notes Martinez has superior striking and range control, and that Pérez has looked older and less durable. Levi warns that Martinez can be complacent and Pérez could weasel a split decision, but believes Martinez's technique and knees will be the difference. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation betting-wise.

The host is confident in Martinez, citing his length, striking from the outside, and 72% takedown defense. He expects Martinez to keep the fight standing and pick apart Pérez with kicks and punches, similar to his performance against Zviad Lazishvili. He notes Pérez is flat-footed and may struggle to close distance. He predicts a decision win for Martinez.

Paul agrees with Martinez, noting his superior striking and takedown defense. He points out Pérez's poor volume and recent KO loss. Paul thinks the line is fair and expects Martinez to win by decision or late stoppage.

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez to win, possibly by third-round finish. He criticizes Alejandro Pérez's striking, calling it terrible with poor range control, and notes that Pérez was clipped by Johnny Eduardo. He highlights Martinez's takedown defense improvements, as seen against Vince Morales, and believes Martinez will stuff takedowns and beat up Pérez on the feet. The Guru expects Martinez to dominate and potentially finish Pérez in the third round.

Big Brady picks Ramiz Brahimaj to win by first-round submission. He notes Brahimaj has only won by first-round submission and has never won by knockout or decision. He criticizes Gillmore's takedown defense and grappling, saying Gillmore has been finished in all four losses, three by submission. However, he is cautious because Brahimaj is on short notice and has poor cardio if the fight goes past the first round. He calls the -350 line 'terrifying' but believes Brahimaj is the much better fighter.

Cody picks Brahimaj by submission, noting his 9 career wins all by submission and Gillmore's 4 losses all by submission. He believes Brahimaj will take Gillmore down and submit him early, but acknowledges Brahimaj's cardio issues if it goes past the first round. Cody bets Brahimaj by submission at +100.

Daniel Levi picks Ramiz Brahimaj to win via first-round submission. He notes Brahimaj's wins are mostly first-round submissions and that Gillmore has a history of getting tapped. Levi acknowledges Brahimaj's confidence may be shaken after two losses, but believes Gillmore is a step down in competition. He expects Brahimaj to get back on track.

The host is very confident in Brahimaj, expecting him to take the fight to the ground with ease and find a submission. He notes that Gillmore has been submitted before and that Brahimaj's jiu-jitsu is more finesse and should lead to a finish. He prefers betting Brahimaj inside the distance at -125 rather than the moneyline.

Paul agrees with Brahimaj by submission, citing the stylistic matchup. He notes Gillmore's poor takedown defense and Brahimaj's wrestling background. Paul is concerned about Brahimaj's cardio but expects a first-round submission.

The MMA Guru picks Ramiz Brahimaj to win by first-round rear-naked choke. He dismisses Micheal Gillmore as not UFC-caliber, citing his losses to Gilbert Urbina and Andre Petroski by submission. The Guru believes Brahimaj's grappling is a perfect stylistic matchup, predicting he will land a double leg early, take the back, and choke Gillmore out in the first round. He notes that all of Gillmore's losses have been by early submission.