UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier

Angelo picks Marvin Vettori, trusting his chin and pressure. He notes that Vettori's takedowns and volume should be effective against Jared Cannonier, who can be gun shy at 39. Vettori lands more significant strikes and has only lost to top competition. Angelo has a half unit moneyline bet on Vettori at minus 145.

Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori to win by decision. He believes Vettori will implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, pushing Cannonier against the cage and taking him down, similar to Israel Adesanya's second fight strategy. He notes Cannonier hasn't faced many wrestlers recently and has been taken down in the past by Derek Brunson and David Branch. Brady emphasizes Vettori's superior cardio, toughness, and durability, and thinks he can win minutes with control and grappling over 25 minutes. He does not expect a finish but sees a clear path to a decision win.

Cody initially gravitates toward Vettori due to his elite generalist skills, cardio, and durability, but he reconsiders after reviewing Cannonier's last fight against Sean Strickland, where Cannonier landed 141 significant strikes and proved he can maintain pace for five rounds despite his muscular build. He notes that Vettori's wrestling may not be good enough to take Cannonier down and hold him there, and that Vettori's last fight against Roman Dolidze was a close call where many thought he lost. Cody ultimately leans Cannonier for landing more damaging strikes, but acknowledges the fight could go either way and recommends betting live rather than pre-fight.

Connor picks Vettori, citing his consistency, durability, and high output. He argues that Vettori is more reliable minute-to-minute than Cannonier, and that Cannonier's lack of a systematic approach will allow Vettori to outwork him. Connor expects a five-round decision where Vettori lands more strikes and edges out rounds.

Daniel Levi picks Jared Cannonier, citing comparable volume but a significant power advantage for Cannonier. He notes Cannonier's high output against Strickland (140+ significant strikes) and believes Cannonier lands the harder shots that impress judges. He expects a decision win for Cannonier, though acknowledges a finish is possible. He also mentions Cannonier's leg kicks as a key weapon and Vettori's susceptibility to them. He got Cannonier at +100 and expects the fight to be close but favors Cannonier's power.

Cannonier lands more significant strikes over a prolonged period, similar to what Roman Dolidze did but for longer. Vettori's striking is improving but he will struggle to implement his clinch/grappling game because Cannonier is tough to keep in one spot and difficult to hold down. Cannonier keeps the fight upright, uses leg kicks and movement, and lands big shots down the middle. Vettori is very durable so Cannonier wins by decision.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting the line has shortened from +130s to near pick'em, which he considers sharp. He thinks Vettori can take Cannonier down but cannot hold him down and maintain position. He likes the over 2 takedowns prop for Vettori but is not fully committed. He leans Cannonier for landing more damaging strikes over 25 minutes but says anything could happen.

The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier over Marvin Vettori, arguing Cannonier is more dynamic with leg kicks, body kicks, and elbows, while Vettori mostly boxes. He compares their common opponents: Cannonier held his own against Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya, while Vettori was schooled by both. He also notes Cannonier knocked out Derek Brunson, while Vettori went to a decision. He predicts a 49-46 decision win for Cannonier.

Zane picks Cannonier because he believes Cannonier's power will be the deciding factor. He notes that Cannonier is not consistent but has a 'get out of jail free card' with his power, and that Vettori has been pushed out of his fight by power punchers like Whittaker and Adesanya. Zane expects a close fight where Cannonier's power wins out over Vettori's durability and output.

Angelo is extremely confident in Arman Tsarukyan, calling him a massive favorite. He expects Tsarukyan to dominate with relentless wrestling, avoiding Silva's submissions. Silva has knockout power but will be defending takedowns the entire time. Angelo says there is no reason to overcomplicate this pick.

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by first-round knockout. He calls this an astronomical step down in competition for Tsarukyan, who has fought top-tier opponents like Islam Makhachev and Mateusz Gamrot. Brady believes Tsarukyan will get takedowns at will, as Silva's takedown defense and durability are poor. He expects a vicious finish, either by knockout on the feet or TKO via ground and pound, similar to Tsarukyan's win over Joel Alvarez. Brady questions why this fight was even made.

Cody sees this as a massive step down for Tsarukyan, who has been fighting elite competition. He expects Tsarukyan to win easily, likely by TKO in the second round, as Tsarukyan has a traditional Russian grinding style that breaks down lesser opponents. He notes Silva is a banger with knockout power but poor takedown defense, and at 34, his skills aren't improving. Cody thinks Tsarukyan will take him down and finish him in the second round.

Connor agrees with Zane, calling Tsarukyan a 'gimme matchup' for Silva. He highlights Tsarukyan's elite grappling and physicality, and notes that Silva's only path to victory is an early knockout. Connor is confident Tsarukyan will dominate with his wrestling and pressure.

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by knockout in round one or two. He notes Tsarukyan's improved striking and power, and expects a dominant performance. He compares it to the Giagos fight where Tsarukyan finished quickly, rather than the Fiziev fight which was more competitive. He respects Silva but sees a clear mismatch.

Tsarukyan can dominate Silva anywhere and will finish him. He is a solid grappler with improving striking and cardio. Silva is a BJJ black belt but prefers striking and has been knocked out in recent fights. Tsarukyan should make an emphatic statement. The pick is Tsarukyan inside the distance rather than the heavy moneyline.

Paul agrees Tsarukyan is a justifiable massive favorite, but he doesn't see an edge in betting the moneyline at -1000. He prefers to chase a prop or just avoid the fight entirely. He notes that Tsarukyan is 26, improving, and has gone five rounds before, while Silva is a banger with nothing to lose but likely gets taken down and finished.

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan easily, calling it a straightforward matchup. He notes Silva has been KO'd by Ricky Glenn and Nazareno Malegarie, and hasn't had a first-round finish since 2014. He expects Tsarukyan to stay calm, out-strike Silva, and get a late TKO.

Zane sees this as a complete stylistic layup for Tsarukyan. He notes that Tsarukyan is one of the best wrestler-grapplers in the sport, while Silva is a dynamic but limited striker who struggles against physical pressure. Zane believes Tsarukyan will bully Silva on the feet and take him down at will, making Silva's only chance a flying knee in the first minute.

Angelo picks Christian Leroy Duncan, noting his pressure and creativity. He acknowledges that Armen Petrosyan is a skilled striker with a solid chin, and if Duncan chases an early knockout and gasses, Petrosyan could take over. However, Duncan hasn't shown a gas tank issue yet. Angelo calls Duncan an affordable minus 150.

Big Brady picks Christian Leroy Duncan to win by second-round knockout. He acknowledges that Petrosyan is likely to win the minutes with higher volume, but Duncan has fight-ending power with spinning attacks and flying knees. Brady notes Petrosyan has poor takedown defense and has been knocked out before. He also mentions Duncan has shown some takedown ability and solid ground game, which could be an alternative path. He thinks the line may be a bit wide but leans to Duncan's power.

Cody takes the underdog Petrosyan, citing his elite striking volume, cardio, and leg kicks. He notes that Petrosyan's takedown defense is poor but his ability to scramble back up and maintain pace is excellent. He believes Duncan, while athletic and rangy, may not have the cardio to keep up with Petrosyan's pressure over three rounds. Cody thinks Petrosyan's leg kicks will slow Duncan's movement, and if Petrosyan can survive the first round, he will take over in the second and third. He also mentions a prop for Petrosyan by split decision at +1250.

Connor picks Duncan for similar reasons, citing his power and aggression. He notes that Petrosian is a 'Vettori type' who is difficult to look good against, but Duncan's power and ability to land crushing shots should carry him. Connor is not fully confident but leans to the powerful fighter.

Daniel Levi picks Christian Leroy Duncan, citing his athleticism, speed, and reach advantage. He notes Duncan's impressive movement in his debut and believes he can land takedowns on Petrosyan, whose takedown defense is poor. He got Duncan at -125 and thinks the line is good value. He also mentions the age disparity and Duncan entering his prime.

Petrosyan is the technically better kickboxer but Duncan's speed, explosiveness, and power will be the difference maker. Petrosyan has been knocked out by less technical strikers before. Duncan throws flying knees and spinning techniques and is likely to land a knockout blow in the first or second round.

Paul sides with Cody, noting that Petrosyan's sample size of high-volume striking in three-round fights is impressive, and until he sees more from Duncan, he leans to the underdog. He mentions that Petrosyan by decision is +250 and by split decision is +1250, which could be worth a sprinkle. He thinks the fight could be close and go to the judges.

The MMA Guru picks Christian Leroy Duncan over Armen Petrosyan, emphasizing the eight-inch reach advantage. He notes Petrosyan is a good striker but lacks dynamism, while Duncan throws wheel kicks, front kicks, and flying knees. He expects Duncan to catch Petrosyan pulling out of an exchange and win by TKO.

Zane picks Duncan because he trusts Duncan's power and comfort in the pocket. He notes that Petrosian is consistent but lacks power, and that Duncan is a more mindful pocket puncher with good vision in exchanges. Zane believes Duncan's dynamic fight-changing power will be too much for Petrosian, who has shown vulnerability to counters.

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini because he has a huge grappling advantage. He notes that Sabatini's chin is a concern after recent knockouts, but he has been recovering. Lucas Almeida has dangerous hands and good scramble skills, but Sabatini's takedowns and top control should be the difference. Angelo also considers a prop bet on Almeida inside the distance/decision no action.

Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win by first-round knockout. He likes both fighters but sees Almeida as a live dog due to his power and volume. Brady questions Sabatini's durability, noting he was hurt by Jamall Emmers and Damon Jackson. Almeida has a 100% finish rate and hits very hard, as seen in his fight with Daniel Zellhuber. Brady thinks Sabatini needs to wrestle early and often, but Almeida's takedown defense looks solid and he is physically strong. If Almeida can keep the fight standing for even a few minutes, he likely gets the knockout.

Cody is hesitant on Sabatini, acknowledging that Almeida has crushing power and improved cardio, and that Sabatini's chin is questionable. He notes that Sabatini's wrestling is good but not elite, and that he tends to stall rather than finish. Cody thinks Sabatini will likely get takedowns and control the fight, but it will be a butt-clencher because Almeida can shut the lights off at any time. He doesn't love the -200 price.

Connor also picks Sabatini, acknowledging that Almeida could KO him but trusting Sabatini's grappling. He notes that Sabatini is awkward on the feet but has shown the ability to recover and submit opponents after being hurt. Connor is less confident than he would like but sees Sabatini as the safer pick.

Daniel Levi leans toward Lucas Almeida, believing if the fight stays standing, Almeida will knock Sabatini out. He notes Sabatini's low volume and chin issues, citing knockouts by Damon Jackson and Jamall Emmers. However, he expresses hesitation because Sabatini's wrestling could neutralize Almeida, leading to a frustrating loss. He considers it a coin flip but prefers the dog.

Sabatini is the best grappler Almeida has faced. He should get takedowns and rack up control time, possibly even a submission. However, there is concern about how Sabatini rebounds from his knockout loss to Damon Jackson. Almeida has power but has shown grappling deficiencies. Sabatini wins by decision.

Paul is not laying -200 on Sabatini, calling him one-dimensional. He notes that Sabatini's takedowns are not always effective and that Almeida has power and durability. Paul thinks Almeida could be in big trouble if the fight stays on the feet, and he likes the plus money on Almeida. He also mentions a prop on Almeida by KO in round 1 at +700.

The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida over Pat Sabatini, arguing Sabatini doesn't do much with takedowns and has been stuffed before. He notes Almeida's durability and finishing ability, referencing his comeback win over Mike Trizano. He believes Almeida can survive bad positions on the ground and land a big shot on the feet.

Zane picks Sabatini despite concerns about his striking. He believes the grappling disparity is too wide and that Almeida takes too many risks standing, which will lead to Sabatini getting takedowns. Zane notes that Almeida has never faced a wrestler of Sabatini's caliber and that Sabatini can survive early trouble to win on the mat.

Angelo picks Nikolas Motta as the underdog. He believes Motta is the more powerful striker and will avoid Torres's plum clinch and takedowns. Torres has a BJJ advantage but will struggle to get the fight to the ground. Angelo plans to bet Motta plus 3.5 points on the judge's scorecard, so a 29-28 loss still pays.

Big Brady picks Manuel Torres to win by first-round knockout. He describes Torres as a wild, relentless fighter who pushes a high pace and looks for finishes. Brady notes Torres has been finished twice by submission but has good durability and chin, while Motta has been knocked out multiple times. He believes Torres will make it his fight and overwhelm Motta with pressure and volume. Brady expects a chaotic car crash of a fight ending early in Torres' favor.

Cody is high on Torres, citing his finishing ability, good volume, durability, and multiple ways to win. He notes that Torres has a nasty submission game and striking, and that his only losses came via leg locks early in his career. Cody thinks Torres will overwhelm Motta with volume and eventually catch him, predicting a knockout after the over 1.5 rounds. He acknowledges Motta's durability is a question mark.

Connor picks Torres, citing his chin and comfort in the pocket. He notes that Motta is a sharp counter puncher but gets hit cleanly and lacks durability. Connor expects Torres to fire back when hit and eventually overwhelm Motta with power.

Daniel Levi picks Nikolas Motta, citing Motta's superior technical striking and counter boxing. He notes Torres's reckless striking leaves openings, and Motta can exploit them. He also mentions Motta's grappling as a potential path to tire Torres. He acknowledges the danger in the first few minutes but believes Motta can weather the storm and take over.

Torres has cardio issues and is mostly an early knockout threat. Motta is a better technical striker with more experience. If Motta survives the early onslaught, he can take over in the second round and find his own knockout. The fight likely ends inside the distance. Motta wins by knockout.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Torres puts on a high pace early and often, and that his significant strike totals are impressive. He questions whether Torres can maintain that pace if the fight extends, but given Motta's durability issues, he thinks Torres will get the job done. Paul likes the over 37.5 significant strikes for Torres on PrizePicks.

The MMA Guru picks Manuel Torres over Nikolas Motta, citing Torres as a good prospect with momentum and a reach advantage. He notes Motta was slept by Jim Miller and has questionable striking defense. He expects a stand-up fight favoring Torres, who has improved over a year off.

Zane picks Torres because of his durability and ability to navigate wild exchanges. He notes that Motta is fragile and has been knocked out multiple times, while Torres has never been KO'd. Zane believes that in a pocket exchange, Torres will land the harder shots and Motta will break.

Angelo has a slight lean to Muslim Salikhov because he has better wrestling, but he calls this a 50/50 fight. Both are older strikers with traditional martial arts backgrounds. Dalby's 65% takedown defense could be a factor. Angelo is waiting for props to drop and is not betting the moneyline.

Big Brady picks Nicolas Dalby to win by decision, but he is low on both fighters. He criticizes Salikhov for low volume, poor cardio, and being 39 years old. Dalby is slightly younger and showed high volume in his last fight against Warlley Alves, landing 119 strikes. Brady thinks Dalby can push Salikhov against the cage, tire him out, and be more active. He notes Dalby has never been knocked out and is very tough. However, he admits he is very low on both guys and this is not an exciting fight.

Cody has a tough time reading this fight. He notes Salikhov is a low-volume counter puncher with heavy power, and that opponents often freeze up against him. He thinks Dalby's wrestling is not good enough to take Salikhov down, and if Dalby tries to out-volume him, he risks walking into a big shot. Cody leans Salikhov to land the better strikes and possibly get a knockout, but he doesn't want much exposure. He likes Salikhov by knockout at +240.

Connor picks Dalby, citing his grinding approach as effective against a fighter like Salikhov who needs space. He notes that Salikhov has not been tested by wrestling since Alex Garcia, and Dalby's physicality should be a problem. Connor sees Dalby muscling his way to a win.

Daniel Levi picks Muslim Salikhov, citing a significant firepower advantage and Salikhov's ability to land damaging shots. He notes Dalby's history of being dropped and his lower volume, while Salikhov can knock him out. He gives the cardio edge to Dalby but thinks Salikhov's power will be decisive. He has a good betting history with Salikhov and plans to bet him as long as the line stays under -200.

Dalby has a speed and athleticism advantage, a good output game, and decent takedowns to mix in. Salikhov is one-dimensional with a kung fu striking style and has shown durability issues. Dalby's awkward striking and volume should outwork Salikhov over three rounds. However, Dalby's durability is a slight concern. Dalby wins by decision.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Dalby's pitter-patter striking won't work against Salikhov, who hits hard. He points out that Dalby has been knocked down by lesser fighters and that Salikhov's power is a real threat. Paul sees Salikhov by knockout at +240 as a potential small bet, though he wishes the price were higher.

The MMA Guru picks Muslim Salikhov over Nicolas Dalby, stating Salikhov is simply better. He notes Dalby lacks finishing potential, submission ability, and great grappling, while Salikhov has momentum and can finish or win a decision. He mentions Dalby was KO'd by Jesse Ronson, and expects Salikhov to catch Dalby with a right hand.

Zane picks Dalby because he believes Dalby's grinding pressure will overwhelm Salikhov. He notes that Salikhov is a sniper who needs time and space, and that Dalby's high output and physicality will not allow that. Zane acknowledges Salikhov could crack Dalby early, but favors Dalby's consistency.

Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa to win by late first-round knockout. He is high on Costa, praising his BJJ black belt, grappling, and knockout power. He thinks Costa can dictate where the fight takes place and has good takedown defense. Flick's path is an early submission, but Brady doubts he can submit Costa. He questions Flick's cardio, toughness, and chin, noting Flick has five knockout losses. Brady expects Costa to land a big shot and finish Flick after weathering an early storm.

Cody is confident in Costa, citing Flick's poor durability and cardio. He notes that Flick has been knocked out in five of his six losses, often early, and that his boxing is poor. Costa showed good takedown defense against Amir Albazi, and Cody thinks he can stuff Flick's takedowns and win on the feet. He also plans to live bet Costa if Flick takes him down early and fails to submit him.

Connor picks Costa, citing his more functional and modern MMA game compared to Flick's one-dimensional grappling. He notes that Costa is a cleaner puncher and that Flick's success depends entirely on landing a submission. Connor is concerned that Flick's aggression could be neutralized if Costa stays standing, as seen in Flick's loss to Charles Johnson. He acknowledges Costa's downside is matching Flick's aimlessness but believes Costa's power and takedown defense give him the edge.

Daniel Levi picks Alessandro Costa, citing his BJJ black belt under Diego Lopez and ability to defend submissions. He views Flick as submission-or-bust and believes Costa can handle that threat. He notes Flick's poor durability and that Costa should win if he avoids submissions. He acknowledges the high juice but sees it as a slam dunk.

Flick is a high-level BJJ player who is crafty from top position. Costa is a solid striker but his takedown defense and control on the ground are not impressive. Flick's stationary style of Costa should allow takedown opportunities. Even though Costa is a BJJ black belt, Flick's submission threat is real. The plus 210 line offers value. Flick wins by submission.

Paul is hesitant to lay -255 on Costa, given the question marks around him, but he picks Costa because Flick's cardio and durability are major issues. He notes that Flick looked terrible in his return against Charles Johnson and that Costa held his own against Albazi. Paul would not bet the moneyline but expects Costa to win.

The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa over Jimmy Flick, questioning Flick's return after a retirement and a first-round TKO loss to Charles Johnson. He notes Costa's loss to Amir Albazi is no shame, and that Costa has fought good opponents and learned lessons. He predicts Costa will finish Flick by TKO.

Zane picks Jimmy Flick despite acknowledging his limited game, which relies heavily on back takes and submissions. He notes that Flick is a consistent finisher and that Costa is 'just a guy' who may not have the foundation to stop Flick's chaos. However, he admits Flick's style is a Hail Mary and that Costa could win if he keeps it standing. Zane is hesitant because Flick's return is uncertain and he was easily handled by Charles Johnson.

Angelo picks Alessandro Costa, noting that if Jimmy Flick looks like he did in his last fight, Costa should be a much heavier favorite. Costa is a patient striker with power and good takedown defense, while Flick had nothing to offer on his feet in his return. Angelo also mentions he would bet the under 2.5 rounds if that line becomes available, expecting a stoppage.

Big Brady picks Cristian Quiñonez to win by decision. He was initially not high on Quiñonez but was impressed by his knockout of Khaos Williams and his overall skills. Quiñonez is a high-volume striker with solid grappling, though he can make mistakes on the mat. Kang is a solid fighter but typically low volume, though he showed improvement in his last fight. Brady thinks Quiñonez is the better striker and as long as he isn't held down for long periods, he should win a decision. He has some concerns about Quiñonez's chin and cardio.

Cody agrees with Paul that Kang at plus money is the pick. He notes Kang has legitimate skills in wrestling and striking, but his ring IQ is poor and he makes stupid mistakes. However, at 35 and coming off a layoff, Kang still has the volume and wrestling edge over Quiñonez. Cody thinks Kang can win striking exchanges and mix in takedowns, and at +140, he's willing to take the chance.

Connor picks Quiñonez, arguing that while Kang is a sharp boxer, he doesn't press advantages and lacks layers behind his striking. Quiñonez, on the other hand, is willing to sit in the pocket and throw combinations with vigor. Connor notes that Quiñonez's low kicks and ability to mix in wrestling could trouble Kang. He acknowledges Quiñonez can get messy but believes his recent improvements under Brandon Moreno's tutelage are durable enough to win a close fight.

Daniel Levi leans toward Cristian Quiñonez, but only at the underdog price he got (opener +145). He sees it as a 50-50 fight and notes Kang's experience and close fights. He likes Quiñonez's volume and style but wouldn't bet him at current juice. He expects the fight to go the distance.

Quiñonez is a long, lanky striker with great footwork and a solid jab. Kang is a solid all-around fighter but will have trouble dealing with Quiñonez's range and movement. Quiñonez has power and can keep the fight standing where he has the advantage. Kang has a slight edge in grappling but Quiñonez should be able to avoid takedowns. Quiñonez wins by decision.

Paul is stunned that Kang is the underdog, given his experience and skills. He notes that the market moved from Kang -180 to +160, which he finds surprising. Paul thinks Kang has skills in every aspect and has been in there with every style. He picks Kang to bring the upset.

Zane picks Kyung Ho Kang, emphasizing his consistent technical boxing and reach advantage. He notes that Kang has a great jab and straight punches, and is willing to pressure opponents. Zane believes Kang's experience and sharpness will edge out Quiñonez, who is still developing and can get messy in exchanges. He also suggests Kang could employ wrestling to make the fight easier, but expects a competitive striking battle where Kang slightly gets the better of it.

Angelo picks Cristian Quiñonez because he believes Quiñonez's relentless forward pressure and wrestling will get Kang down repeatedly. He notes that Kang has cleaner technique and a good jab, but Quiñonez's pace and grappling should be the difference. Angelo also hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line and would bet the over if available, as Kang is tough and the fight likely goes into the second round.

Big Brady picks Denys Bondar to win by submission. He was very high on Bondar initially but tempered expectations after Bondar lost to Malcolm Gordon due to injury and was losing on the feet. However, he sees this as a great stylistic matchup for Bondar, as Hernandez has poor takedown defense. Bondar has strong wrestling and grappling with a 100% finish rate. Brady thinks Bondar will get takedowns easily and be dangerous on the mat, eventually submitting Hernandez. He is curious to see where the odds open.

Cody takes the underdog Hernandez, citing Bondar's padded record and poor UFC debut where he got his arm broken. He notes that Bondar's wrestling looked good against cans, but Hernandez has faced better competition. Cody thinks Hernandez's takedown defense is a weakness, but Bondar's striking is non-existent, and if Bondar can't get takedowns, Hernandez will win on the feet. He expects a close, greasy fight.

Connor agrees with Zane, stating he trusts Bondar's physicality and grinding style over Hernandez's scrappy but limited game. He notes that Hernandez is not athletic enough to keep up with Bondar's pace and pressure. Connor expects Bondar to impose his will with takedowns and top control, leading to a clear decision or late finish.

Daniel Levi leans toward Carlos Hernandez, citing his superior competition and volume. He notes Hernandez's body shots and activity, but acknowledges Bondar's grappling threat. He thinks if Bondar can't hold him down, Hernandez will outpoint him. He sees it as a close fight and takes the underdog.

Hernandez consistently moves backwards and puts himself in bad positions near the cage, which Bondar can exploit with takedowns. Bondar is an aggressive grappler who looks to finish from top position. Even if Hernandez gets the better of striking exchanges, Bondar's takedowns and top control should win rounds. Bondar wins by decision.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Bondar's wrestling is unproven at UFC level and that Hernandez's takedown defense has been exploited but Bondar may not be able to exploit it. He thinks the over 2 takedowns for Bondar is possible but not a play. Paul picks Hernandez but is not confident.

The MMA Guru picks Cristian Quiñonez over Kyung Ho Kang, citing Kang's age (35), long layoffs, and lackluster performances against bottom feeders. He notes Quiñonez is an up-and-coming prospect on a win streak, with an impressive first-round KO debut against Khalid Taha. He believes the prospect should be favored over the older, injury-prone veteran.

Zane picks Bondar, viewing his debut loss as a fluke and trusting his grinding style of takedowns and top control. He notes that Hernandez is scrappy but not athletic, and will fight whatever fight his opponent wants. Zane believes Bondar's pressure and ability to stay in his face will overwhelm Hernandez, who lacks the athleticism to get Bondar off his game. He expects Bondar to control the fight with wrestling and clinch work.

Angelo is torn on this fight. He notes that Tereza Bledá has the grappling blueprint to win, but she is only 21 and could get overzealous. Gabriella Fernandes is a powerful striker and a plus 235 underdog, which feels wide. Angelo mentions a prop bet idea: if Jasmine wins, bet on Gabriella inside the distance/decision no action. He hasn't pulled the trigger yet and is waiting for props to drop.

Big Brady picks Tereza Bledá to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Fernandes is skilled on the feet with fast kicks and power, but has terrible takedown defense and ground game. Bledá can wrestle and grapple, and her ground and pound is dangerous. Brady recalls that Jasmine Jasudavicius almost finished Fernandes from crucifix, and Bledá is more dangerous than Jasudavicius. However, he worries about Bledá's cardio after she gassed in her UFC debut. If her cardio holds or she gets an early finish, she should win easily.

Cody picks Bledá but is not confident at the price. He notes she is very strong, can bulldoze into the clinch, and has a path to victory by pressing Fernandes against the cage and scoring takedowns. However, she is only 21, green, and has zero striking. He compares her to Miranda Maverick, who had all pre-fight advantages but none in the fight. He thinks the price is too high for a risky grappling-dependent fighter.

Connor picks Fernandes, noting that while both fighters are limited, Fernandes is more polished on the feet and has shown decent takedown defense. He worries about Bledá's gas tank and believes if Fernandes can avoid being taken down early, she can outwork Bledá over three rounds. Connor acknowledges Bledá's physical strength but thinks Fernandes's technique and patience will be the difference.

Daniel Levi leans toward Tereza Bledá, citing her takedown ability and top control. He notes Fernandes's poor takedown defense and get-up game. However, he is hesitant because Fernandes has dangerous striking and Bledá's top game may not be as good as Jasmine's. He expects Bledá to win via control but won't bet at the current price.

Bledá is far superior to Fernandes and will eventually get takedowns and grind her out. Fernandes is a striker who struggles off her back. Bledá's cardio is a concern but she should have an easier time corralling Fernandes than she did against Natalia Silva. Bledá wins inside the distance, likely by submission in round 2.

Paul is hesitant, noting that Bledá's path to victory is to muscle Fernandes against the cage and hold her there, which is risky and relies on judges appreciating cage control. He thinks the price is too high for such a one-dimensional approach. He picks Bledá but is not interested in betting.

The MMA Guru essentially flips a coin for this fight, admitting he has no logical breakdown. He notes Tereza Bledá is 21 with time to improve, and her losses to Jasmine Jasudavicius and Natalia Silva are not bad. He decides to pick Bledá after a failed coin flip, but with no confidence.

Zane picks Fernandes, citing her sharper striking and movement compared to Bledá's raw physicality. He notes that Bledá is young and strong but lacks technique, and Fernandes has the power to hurt her. Zane is concerned about Fernandes's grappling defense but believes she can stuff takedowns and let Bledá tire herself out. He expects Fernandes to win by decision or late TKO if she stays patient.

Angelo picks Dan Argueta as a low confidence underdog. He notes that Ronnie Lawrence is a great offensive wrestler but struggled when pressured in his last fight. Argueta's forward pressure and wrestling could cause similar issues. Angelo likes the plus 135 moneyline but hasn't bet yet, saying he's keeping an eye on it.

Big Brady picks Ronnie Lawrence to win by decision. He is high on Lawrence, praising his relentless wrestling, cardio, and underrated striking. Lawrence averages 7 takedowns per 15 minutes with 77% accuracy. Argueta is also a wrestler, but Brady thinks Lawrence's relentless pace will be too much. He notes that Lawrence can attempt 20+ takedowns if needed. He disagrees with the initial -550 opener for Lawrence, saying -155 is about right, but still expects Lawrence to win a decision.

Cody picks Lawrence, noting that despite his poor takedown performance against Said Khamzatov, he got up nine times and learned from the experience. He thinks Lawrence is a talented striker with good footwork and speed, and that Argueta's takedown defense is not great and his volume is low. Cody believes Lawrence can stuff takedowns and win on the feet.

Connor picks Argueta, arguing that Lawrence is not a strong athlete and will struggle with Argueta's strength and wrestling. He notes that Argueta is a featherweight cutting down and will be able to spend time on top. Connor believes Lawrence will give up tie-ups and Argueta will end up in dominant positions. He expects Argueta to grind out a decision or get a late finish.

Daniel Levi picks Ronnie Lawrence, citing his significant striking edge and power. He notes Argueta's poor striking defense and cardio issues. He acknowledges Lawrence's bad loss to Saydokub but attributes it to a broken nose and tough opponent. He got Lawrence at -150 and thinks he wins at a decent clip, though weight cut concerns exist.

Argueta has superior technical wrestling compared to Lawrence, who is more of a pace-based wrestler. Lawrence's takedown-heavy style may not work against a better wrestler like Argueta. Argueta can get top position and grind out a decision. The plus 155 underdog line offers value.

Paul is tempted by Argueta at plus money, noting that Lawrence has been rocked before and that Argueta is a strong grappler with low center of gravity. He thinks this fight is best approached live, as the first wrestling exchanges will reveal a lot. He picks Argueta for the show but is not confident pre-fight.

The MMA Guru picks Ronnie Lawrence, stating a massive talent difference. He argues Lawrence should not have been cut from the UFC after a close loss to Said Nurmagomedov, and that Dan Argueta lacks the power to trouble Lawrence. He praises Lawrence's transitions and scrambling, expecting him to be too much for Argueta's simple style.

Zane picks Lawrence, describing Argueta as slow and cumbersome, loading up on single shots. He believes Lawrence's tricky karate-style striking and scrambling will befuddle Argueta. Zane notes that Lawrence's first layer of offense is more capable of confusing Argueta than vice versa. He expects Lawrence to land more impressive shots and win a competitive fight.

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas because he is the more technical striker and this is mostly a striking matchup. He notes that if Zac Pauga could wrestle effectively, he'd be the easy pick, but Pauga hasn't shown that wrestling in the UFC. However, Angelo acknowledges there is a world where Pauga holds Bukauskas against the cage for 15 minutes and wins a decision, so he does not place a bet.

Big Brady picks Zac Pauga to win by decision, but he is very low on both fighters. He criticizes Bukauskas for low volume and power, and Pauga for taking Jordan Wright to a decision, which he calls a terrible look. However, Pauga throws more volume and has solid cardio. Brady thinks Pauga can hold Bukauskas against the cage and potentially take him down, as Bukauskas has struggled with takedown defense in the past. He expects a boring fight with Pauga winning a close decision.

Cody is confident in Bukauskas, citing his speed, striking advantage, and improved cardio since returning to the UFC. He notes that Pauga's only notable win is a decision over Jordan Wright, which was uninspiring, and that Pauga is 35 with only three years of pro experience. Cody thinks Bukauskas will outwork Pauga and possibly get a TKO in the second or third round.

Connor picks Bukauskas, acknowledging his limited boxing but noting his athleticism and size. He believes Bukauskas has improved his aggression and output, as seen in the Tyson Pedro fight. Connor expects Bukauskas to use his reach and movement to outwork Pauga, who lacks dynamic speed. He thinks Bukauskas will win by decision or late stoppage.

Daniel Levi leans toward Modestas Bukauskas, citing his size, length, and experience. He notes Pauga's greenness and that the UFC may be setting up Bukauskas as a prospect. He thinks Bukauskas could win by knockout. However, he is not interested in betting at -200 and sees it as a pass at current odds.

Pauga has a good enough striking and overall MMA game to tie up Bukauskas in the clinch, drag him to the ground, and do damage from top. He has good cardio to maintain this for 15 minutes. Bukauskas is overhyped due to recency bias from his win over Tyson Pedro. Pauga is a solid underdog at plus 165. Pauga wins by decision.

Paul agrees, noting that Pauga's win over Jordan Wright was terrible and that he will be picking against Pauga for the rest of eternity. He thinks Bukauskas is younger, more experienced, and has rebuilt himself after a knee injury. Paul expects Bukauskas to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, citing a massive advantage at range on the feet against Zac Pauga. He notes Pauga was on one of the worst seasons of TUF and lacks skill at range, while Bukauskas is technical with good footwork. He also mentions Bukauskas has improved since his first UFC stint, with a win over Tyson Pedro on short notice and a controversial loss to Khalil Rountree. He believes Bukauskas is reborn and will continue his momentum.

Zane picks Bukauskas, noting his improved output and good frame for light heavyweight. He throws long strikes and has power that can be decisive. Zane criticizes Pauga as not dynamic, lacking speed, and only beating Jordan Wright by clinching. He expects Bukauskas to move around, make Pauga look slow, and land consistent one-twos for a clear decision or late TKO.