UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg Next Fight
Age 27
Height 5' 5"
Reach 67"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 4"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - David Martínez
4.82 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
2.9 SApM
69.0% Str. Def.
0.6 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Saimon Oliveira
2.62 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.87 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
1.18 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
36.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
David Martínez - Fight History
WIN vs Marlon Vera
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 0 42 of 145 28% 52 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
David Martínez 0 71 of 155 45% 86 of 173 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 0 5 of 39 12% 13 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
David Martínez 0 19 of 41 46% 26 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
2 Marlon Vera 0 13 of 40 32% 14 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
David Martínez 0 21 of 43 48% 29 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:45
3 Marlon Vera 0 24 of 66 36% 25 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
David Martínez 0 31 of 71 43% 31 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 42 of 145 28% 26 of 113 11 of 21 5 of 11 41 of 142 1 of 3 0 of 0
David Martínez 71 of 155 45% 48 of 126 16 of 20 7 of 9 67 of 148 1 of 2 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 5 of 39 12% 0 of 30 2 of 4 3 of 5 5 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
David Martínez 19 of 41 46% 10 of 28 5 of 7 4 of 6 16 of 36 0 of 0 3 of 5
2 Marlon Vera 13 of 40 32% 10 of 32 1 of 4 2 of 4 13 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
David Martínez 21 of 43 48% 13 of 33 6 of 8 2 of 2 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marlon Vera 24 of 66 36% 16 of 51 8 of 13 0 of 2 23 of 63 1 of 3 0 of 0
David Martínez 31 of 71 43% 25 of 65 5 of 5 1 of 1 30 of 69 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
David Martínez

Angelo picks David Martínez, criticizing Marlon Vera as a fighter who often does nothing and then complains about decisions. He highlights Martínez's movement, volume, and defensive stats, and believes he will outwork Vera. He warns against betting on Vera as a dog, calling it a trap.

"David Martinez is the pick. The odds reflect it, but I am still 100% sure so many people are going to fall into the most stereotypical Cheeto Vera as a dog trap."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
David Martínez

Big Brady picks David Martínez, citing Marlon Vera's apparent lack of effort in recent fights. He notes Vera has shown no urgency against top competition and lost to Ian Zahabi. Martínez is young, hungry, and fast, and Brady believes he will win by decision, continuing Vera's frustrating streak.

decision
"Give me David Martinez to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
David Martínez

Cody is concerned about Martinez taking a round off against Font and the high price. He sees split decision potential and notes Vera's durability and experience. However, he leans Martinez due to Vera's recent poor form and age, but suggests live betting Vera if he loses the first round.

"I end up with a David Martinez. Um, you know, if you're going to bet Marlon Vera, bet him after the first round because he is a really slow starter."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
David Martínez

Connor also picks Martinez but is more cautious, noting that Vera is a dangerous puncher who can hurt anyone. He points out that Martinez has not faced someone with Vera's power and could get knocked out. However, Connor believes Vera's tendency to let fights slip away and his declining athleticism will allow Martinez to win rounds with volume and pressure.

Vera's power; Martinez's untested chin; Vera's tendency to lose close fights; odds too wide
"I'm still going to pick Martinez just because I do think that Vera is increasing..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)

The host considers this a dog-or-pass fight. Martínez is a heavy favorite at -294, but the host cannot bet him at that price. He notes that Vera has been passive and lost his last five decisions, and Martínez has home advantage. However, Vera is dangerous if he shows up, but the host hates betting on passive fighters. He passes.

"Martinez will probably win, but at these odds, you can't touch him. If you do want to bet this fight, you do have to take Ver. This is doggo or pass, but I hate betting on fighters that are very …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
David Martínez

James favors Martínez due to his superior footwork, kicking game, and volume, which should trouble Vera's forward pressure. He notes Vera's durability and power but believes Martínez can outpoint him over three rounds. James predicts a decision win for Martínez and suggests betting on Martínez by decision as a prop.

David Martínez via decision
"I got David Martinez to win this fight. I got him to win via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
David Martínez

The host picks David Martínez by decision, citing his slick striking, speed, and cardio. He believes Martínez will stick and move effectively, while Vera is reckless and a slow starter. He notes Vera's durability but expects Martínez to outland him and win a clear decision, similar to the Sean O'Malley fight but less dominant.

"Give me Martinez and Martinez by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
David Martínez

Paul likes Martinez's speed and kickboxing, and believes he passed the Rob Font test. He notes Vera's slow starts and recent decline, but is not excited about the -310 price. He expects a close decision but picks Martinez to get the job done.

"I'm picking Martinez. I'm not excited about laying minus 310 on him though."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
David Martínez

The MMA Guru picks David Martínez, stating that Marlon Vera has looked inactive and frustrated since his loss to Sean O'Malley. He praises Martínez's chin, explosiveness, low kicks, and movement, noting that he beat Rob Font. He believes Vera is done as a fighter and that Martínez will outwork him.

"I'm going to have to go with David Martinez over Marlon Vera here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
David Martínez

Zane picks Martinez because Vera is on a three-fight losing streak and his style is falling apart. He notes that Vera's process was always dysfunctional, relying on late surges, and now he lacks the speed and durability to make it work. Martinez showed toughness against Rob Font and has the volume and pressure to outwork Vera, though Zane acknowledges Vera's power is a threat.

Vera's three-fight losing streak; Martinez's win over Rob Font; Vera's declining speed and durability; odds too wide (Vera +260)
"I think I'm going to pick Martinez here."
WIN vs Rob Font
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rob Font 0 49 of 158 31% 49 of 158 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:59
David Martínez 0 62 of 155 40% 115 of 210 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rob Font 0 11 of 51 21% 11 of 51 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
David Martínez 0 22 of 45 48% 35 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Rob Font 0 15 of 49 30% 15 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:39
David Martínez 0 10 of 27 37% 30 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
3 Rob Font 0 23 of 58 39% 23 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
David Martínez 0 30 of 83 36% 50 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rob Font 49 of 158 31% 40 of 138 7 of 17 2 of 3 49 of 158 0 of 0 0 of 0
David Martínez 62 of 155 40% 33 of 115 10 of 16 19 of 24 62 of 155 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rob Font 11 of 51 21% 11 of 48 0 of 2 0 of 1 11 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
David Martínez 22 of 45 48% 7 of 25 5 of 8 10 of 12 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rob Font 15 of 49 30% 9 of 37 5 of 11 1 of 1 15 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
David Martínez 10 of 27 37% 6 of 20 3 of 5 1 of 2 10 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rob Font 23 of 58 39% 20 of 53 2 of 4 1 of 1 23 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
David Martínez 30 of 83 36% 20 of 70 2 of 3 8 of 10 30 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rob Font

Angelo picks Rob Font, despite his age (38) and lack of takedown defense. He says Font is a technical striker with clean hands, good chin, and veteran composure. He thinks David Martinez, stepping up on short notice, probably won't look to wrestle unless losing the striking exchanges, and by then it's too late. He says the over 2.5 is probably rock solid. He also mentions a David Martinez inside the distance decision no action prop.

The over two and a half is probably rock solid here. I might like a David Martinez inside the distance decision, no action might be the play.
"Font is the pick. The over two and a half is probably rock solid here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rob Font

Big Brady picks Font because Martinez is a big step down in competition. He notes Font has fought and lost to elite fighters, but has beaten lower-level opponents. He likes Font's volume, cardio, and experience. He predicts a decision win, though he acknowledges Martinez has power and Font can be hurt.

Decision win
"I'm going to take Font to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rob Font

Connor picks Rob Font, emphasizing Font's reach advantage and high-output one-two, which will trouble Martínez's in-and-out striking style. He notes that Martínez struggled with the jab against Xavier Franklin and Font is a better version of that. Connor acknowledges Font's age (38) but says his chin hasn't gone yet, and Martínez lacks the power or wrestling to exploit it.

Font opened at -170, dropped to -200, currently -130; Martínez opened at +145, currently +110. Connor says 'it really feels like Font could be a bigger favorite' and attributes the line movement to age bias.
"Martínez is just going to be stuck having Rob Font's fight as far as I can tell."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
David Martínez

Martinez has received a lot of love, moving from +180 to +115, and the host agrees. He believes Martinez is closer to his prime, dangerous in striking, treads distance well, and will counter Font's output. He expects Martinez to stuff takedowns and win on the scorecards.

odds movement from +180 to +115
"I think he is way closer to his prime. He's very dangerous in the striking realm. Treads distance very well. Utilizes a good mobile striking game and I think he'll be able to counter the output heavy game of Font."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

The MMA Guru picks Rob Font, dismissing David Martinez as unproven with wins over low-level opponents. He believes Font's jab and reach will be key, and that Martinez's single-shot explosivity won't trouble Font. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27 or 30-26, as Martinez loses composure when peppered with jabs.

Decision win 30-27 or 30-26
"Rob Font is gonna beat David Martinez, I reckon. ... I'm going to go Rob Font decision win 2928 based on the second and third or maybe 30-27."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rob Font

Zane picks Rob Font, highlighting Font's consistent output, power, and experience against top competition. He notes that Font's losses have come only against elite fighters with superior wrestling or power, and Martínez lacks both. Zane believes Martínez's step up in competition is too large, and Font's one-two and takedown to seal rounds will be decisive.

Font opened at -170, dropped to -200, currently -130; Martínez opened at +145, currently +110. Zane says 'it really feels like Font could be a bigger favorite' and attributes the line movement to age bias.
"This is just a monstrous step up. And as we have seen many times now, Rob Font is not a guy you step up against."
KO R1 4:38 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
David Martínez 1 27 of 41 65% 28 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Saimon Oliveira 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 David Martínez 1 27 of 41 65% 28 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Saimon Oliveira 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
David Martínez 27 of 41 65% 21 of 34 1 of 2 5 of 5 14 of 25 5 of 5 8 of 11
Saimon Oliveira 7 of 24 29% 3 of 17 3 of 4 1 of 3 7 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 David Martínez 27 of 41 65% 21 of 34 1 of 2 5 of 5 14 of 25 5 of 5 8 of 11
Saimon Oliveira 7 of 24 29% 3 of 17 3 of 4 1 of 3 7 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
David Martínez

James picks David Martínez to win, praising his footwork, striking variety, and fight IQ. He notes Martínez's ability to pace himself and turn it up late in rounds, and believes Oliveira's chaotic style and poor cardio will be exposed at elevation. James highlights Oliveira's two-year layoff and previous gas-out against Daniel Marcos. He predicts Martínez will win inside the distance, likely in rounds two or three, due to superior footwork and Oliveira's tendency to fade.

Prediction: Martínez inside the distance. Mentions Oliveira's submission threat as a possible angle but favors Martínez.
"David Martinez I think if he doesn't get UFC Jitters on his UFC debut I think that he gets a finish in this fight in rounds two or rounds three."
Saimon Oliveira - Fight History
LOSS vs Luan Lacerda
Submission R2 3:55 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luan Lacerda 0 24 of 39 61% 60 of 85 3 of 4 75% 1 0 6:06
Saimon Oliveira 0 21 of 34 61% 33 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 2 1:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luan Lacerda 0 10 of 20 50% 26 of 42 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:38
Saimon Oliveira 0 6 of 8 75% 14 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 1 0:58
2 Luan Lacerda 0 14 of 19 73% 34 of 43 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:28
Saimon Oliveira 0 15 of 26 57% 19 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luan Lacerda 24 of 39 61% 13 of 26 10 of 12 1 of 1 6 of 13 6 of 8 12 of 18
Saimon Oliveira 21 of 34 61% 14 of 21 3 of 7 4 of 6 8 of 17 2 of 3 11 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luan Lacerda 10 of 20 50% 3 of 11 7 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 6 6 of 8 3 of 6
Saimon Oliveira 6 of 8 75% 1 of 1 3 of 4 2 of 3 4 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Luan Lacerda 14 of 19 73% 10 of 15 3 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 12
Saimon Oliveira 15 of 26 57% 13 of 20 0 of 3 2 of 3 4 of 12 0 of 0 11 of 14
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Angelo picks Luan Lacerda based on his raw notes from watching their last fights. He describes Luan as 'incredibly dangerous' and constantly working towards submissions, while his notes for Saimon simply say 'sucks.' He acknowledges the layoff for Luan but believes he is fighting a lesser opponent and should win. He also suggests the odds might be a discount.

odds might be a discount
"Luan Lacerda is the pick. I hate the layoff, but he's fighting a suck."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Big Brady picks Luan Lacerda by default, as he is not picking Saimon Oliveira to beat anyone in the UFC. He notes Oliveira has no takedown defense, no cardio, and no durability, and that he almost died in a training accident. Lacerda is 0-2 in the UFC but has taken a two-year layoff; Brady expects him to get takedowns at will and potentially find a submission or win a decision. He calls the fight sketchy with two fighters who arguably shouldn't be in the UFC.

"I got to go Lera here by default. I mean, you know, I'm not picking Simon Oliver to beat literally anybody in the UFC."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Cody picks Lacerda, citing Oliveira's poor durability and technique. He notes Lacerda's body work and wrestling, and expects him to wear Oliveira down. He suggests live betting if Lacerda starts slow.

"I'll take low on Lerta."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Lucrative James picks Luan Lacerda to win, noting that Lacerda has shown better performances in the UFC despite being 0-2, and believes he should be 1-1. He highlights Lacerda's superior grappling and submission game, with six submission wins leading up to his UFC debut. He also mentions Lacerda's dangerous leg lock game but warns about his tendency to roll for leg locks, which got him knocked out in his last fight. He expects a finish inside the distance, likely by submission, but passes on betting due to the -245 price tag and layoff concerns.

inside the distance (no value at -180), under 1.5 rounds (+120)
"I kind of like Luan Lerta to win this one. He's minus 245 favorite. So, I can't really do business with him at that price tag."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Manpreet picks Lacerda but is wary of the long layoff and chalky odds. He believes Lacerda's BJJ will be the difference, expecting a submission win. However, he notes that Oliveira's grappling defense is not as dangerous as previous opponents, and the layoff makes Lacerda tough to trust at minus 260.

Lacerda by submission
"I'm going to go Lacerda. I think he probably wraps up a submission here and forces the tap from Oliveira, but very tough to trust him at minus 260 considering the long layoff."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Paul picks Lacerda, calling Oliveira the worst guy on the roster. He notes Oliveira's 0-3 record and reckless style, while Lacerda has faced better competition. He expects Lacerda to win, possibly by knockout or decision.

"Luan Lasser is a pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

The MMA Guru picks Luan Lacerda over Saimon Oliveira, citing toughness and durability advantages. He notes Oliveira seems 'soy' and easy to break, with a losing streak and finishes. Lacerda trains at a better gym (Nova União) and has had time off to develop. He predicts a late-round finish by TKO or submission.

"I'm going to go with Lan Lerta getting this one done. I think he's likely to get a finish here by TKO or submission in the later rounds."
LOSS vs David Martínez
KO R1 4:38 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
David Martínez 1 27 of 41 65% 28 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Saimon Oliveira 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 David Martínez 1 27 of 41 65% 28 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Saimon Oliveira 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
David Martínez 27 of 41 65% 21 of 34 1 of 2 5 of 5 14 of 25 5 of 5 8 of 11
Saimon Oliveira 7 of 24 29% 3 of 17 3 of 4 1 of 3 7 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 David Martínez 27 of 41 65% 21 of 34 1 of 2 5 of 5 14 of 25 5 of 5 8 of 11
Saimon Oliveira 7 of 24 29% 3 of 17 3 of 4 1 of 3 7 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
David Martínez

James picks David Martínez to win, praising his footwork, striking variety, and fight IQ. He notes Martínez's ability to pace himself and turn it up late in rounds, and believes Oliveira's chaotic style and poor cardio will be exposed at elevation. James highlights Oliveira's two-year layoff and previous gas-out against Daniel Marcos. He predicts Martínez will win inside the distance, likely in rounds two or three, due to superior footwork and Oliveira's tendency to fade.

Prediction: Martínez inside the distance. Mentions Oliveira's submission threat as a possible angle but favors Martínez.
"David Martinez I think if he doesn't get UFC Jitters on his UFC debut I think that he gets a finish in this fight in rounds two or rounds three."
LOSS vs Daniel Marcos
KO (knee to the body and punches) R2 2:18 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Marcos 0 23 of 70 32% 25 of 73 0 of 5 0% 0 0 2:15
Saimon Oliveira 1 53 of 78 67% 59 of 84 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Marcos 0 13 of 40 32% 15 of 43 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:05
Saimon Oliveira 0 27 of 40 67% 31 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
2 Daniel Marcos 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Saimon Oliveira 1 26 of 38 68% 28 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Marcos 23 of 70 32% 7 of 47 3 of 7 13 of 16 20 of 63 3 of 7 0 of 0
Saimon Oliveira 53 of 78 67% 31 of 52 20 of 23 2 of 3 36 of 58 16 of 19 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Marcos 13 of 40 32% 4 of 27 3 of 5 6 of 8 10 of 35 3 of 5 0 of 0
Saimon Oliveira 27 of 40 67% 16 of 28 10 of 11 1 of 1 17 of 30 10 of 10 0 of 0
2 Daniel Marcos 10 of 30 33% 3 of 20 0 of 2 7 of 8 10 of 28 0 of 2 0 of 0
Saimon Oliveira 26 of 38 68% 15 of 24 10 of 12 1 of 2 19 of 28 6 of 9 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Big Brady is not extremely impressed with either fighter but sees more paths to victory for Daniel Marcos. He notes Marcos made significant improvements from his earlier fights to the Contender Series, particularly in striking and takedown defense. He believes Marcos can get takedowns against Oliveira, who has poor takedown defense, though Oliveira is dangerous off his back. He calls it a sketchy fight he's staying away from betting.

"I think Marcos has more paths to Victory here as a dog so I'm gonna pick him to win this is kind of a sketchy fight a fight I'm going to be staying away from"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Cody picks Daniel Marcos as a slight underdog, noting his striking and power. He says Marcos showed good volume and power on Contender Series, and that Oliveira is reckless and has poor wrestling. He thinks Marcos can win a striking battle. He mentions Marcos' cardio issues but thinks he can push through. He says this is a 50/50 fight and he'll take the plus money.

mentions Marcos' flying knees; says Oliveira is reckless
"I'm gonna go with Daniel Marcos yeah"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Saimon Oliveira

Connor agrees, noting Oliveira has more experience and is more aggressive. Marcos may struggle with Oliveira's pressure and guillotine threat.

"I agree. I have very little to add."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Paul picks Daniel Marcos, agreeing with Cody. He notes Oliveira's recklessness and poor wrestling. He says Marcos has good striking and power. He mentions Marcos' cardio issues but thinks he can win. He says he's not confident but will pick Marcos.

mentions Oliveira's spinning back fists; says Marcos has good leg kicks
"I'm leaning towards Marcos as well he threw like a bunch of like you know flying knees on Contender Series"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The Guru sees this as a 50/50 matchup but leans towards Marcos as the underdog. He notes that Oliveira barely scraped by on the contender series and was ragdolled by Tony Gravely, who got 11 takedowns on him. Marcos showed good takedown defense against Brandon Lewis, stuffing 11 of 13 takedowns, and has been more active recently, while Oliveira hasn't fought in a year. The Guru gives a slight grappling advantage to Marcos due to his hustle and stubbornness in positions.

"I'm gonna side with Daniel Marcos as the underdog here because this is kind of like a 50 50 matchup and they have made Simon Oliveira quite a decent favorite so I'm leaning towards Daniel Marcos"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Saimon Oliveira

Zane picks Oliveira because he is cleaner and more aggressive. Marcos is gritty but lacks clean technique. Oliveira's experience and aggression should give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's guillotine could be a threat.

"I think this will just be a technical edge and an aggression edge."
LOSS vs Tony Gravely
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tony Gravely 0 46 of 99 46% 66 of 132 11 of 15 73% 0 0 11:28
Saimon Oliveira 0 35 of 71 49% 50 of 87 0 of 0 --- 4 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tony Gravely 0 5 of 21 23% 14 of 36 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:31
Saimon Oliveira 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:03
2 Tony Gravely 0 20 of 44 45% 25 of 51 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:33
Saimon Oliveira 0 18 of 29 62% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Tony Gravely 0 21 of 34 61% 27 of 45 5 of 5 100% 0 0 3:24
Saimon Oliveira 0 13 of 36 36% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tony Gravely 46 of 99 46% 36 of 87 4 of 6 6 of 6 24 of 50 4 of 7 18 of 42
Saimon Oliveira 35 of 71 49% 21 of 53 9 of 13 5 of 5 27 of 62 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tony Gravely 5 of 21 23% 4 of 20 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 16
Saimon Oliveira 4 of 6 66% 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tony Gravely 20 of 44 45% 15 of 38 4 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 23 2 of 4 9 of 17
Saimon Oliveira 18 of 29 62% 11 of 22 4 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 20 8 of 9 0 of 0
3 Tony Gravely 21 of 34 61% 17 of 29 0 of 1 4 of 4 13 of 22 2 of 3 6 of 9
Saimon Oliveira 13 of 36 36% 8 of 27 4 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Angelo picks Tony Gravely despite the submission threat from Oliveira. He believes Gravely's wrestling and top pressure will be effective, similar to how Arjan Bhullar beat Oliveira. However, he warns that five of Gravely's seven losses are by submission, and Oliveira has 11 submission wins, so he will be looking at prop bets.

looking at prop bets
"i'm still gonna pick tony gravy to win here i think he'll have solid pressure and smother olivera similar to how you know ari ferrius beat oliveira but tony needs to watch out for elbows from the bottom and avoid …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Big Brady picks Tony Gravely to win by first or second round knockout, citing his power advantage and superior competition. He notes Oliveira's record is padded and he is hittable. Gravely has multiple paths: knockout on the feet or takedown and ground-and-pound. The only concern is Gravely has been submitted before, but those were against elite grapplers. He expects Gravely to finish Oliveira early.

Gravely by KO in rounds 1-2; mentions Oliveira's padded record
"i'm going to take gravely to win by i'm going to say first or second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Cody picks Tony Gravely, citing his collegiate wrestling, developing boxing, and power. He notes that Oliveira has never been finished and has poor defensive tendencies, leaving himself open to big shots. Cody believes Gravely's wrestling and striking will be too much, but warns that Gravely has cardio issues and can be reckless. He likes Gravely by knockout but notes the decision is possible.

Tony Gravely by knockout +225 at DraftKings
"Gravely is my pick... Gravely by knockout."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Saimon Oliveira

Daniel Levi picks Saimon Oliveira as an underdog. He notes that Tony Gravely has a history of mental lapses, getting submitted or knocked out after dominating early rounds. Oliveira is experienced (18-3), has fought tough competition like Ari Farias, and has knockout power and opportunistic submissions. Levi believes Gravely will muscle Oliveira around early but eventually leave his neck or chin out, allowing Oliveira to capitalize and get his first UFC win. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

Oliveira by opportunistic finish (submission or KO); +205 underdog
"i think that simon oliveira is going to capitalize and actually get his first ufc win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Saimon Oliveira

The host leans Oliveira because he believes Gravely's cardio is suspect and that Oliveira has advantages on the feet and in the clinch. He notes that Gravely tends to fade in later rounds and that Oliveira has good guillotine chokes if Gravely shoots desperately. He expects Oliveira to win by submission in the third round, but he is not confident enough to bet it heavily; he may take a small play on under 2.5 rounds.

Oliveira inside the distance (+400), under 2.5 rounds (+115)
"i do lean oliveira ever so slightly though i do think that he'll likely lose the first round so possibly a live betting opportunity there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Paul picks Tony Gravely, agreeing that Gravely's wrestling and power are key. He notes that Oliveira has never been finished but puts himself in positions to get sparked. Paul warns that Gravely's cardio is a concern and that he gassed against Nate Maness. He advises not going too heavy on Gravely due to these risks.

"The pick is Tony Gravely but I've learned a little bit more, I don't want to go super high on him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

The MMA Guru picks Tony Gravely, though hesitant due to Gravely's recent KO loss. He notes Gravely's tough competition and training at 80T, and believes his grappling and stand-up will be enough. He was unimpressed by Oliveira's contender series performance and predicts a close 29-28 decision.

"tony gravely gets this one done i wasn't too impressed by the contender series performance of oliveira"
Expert Picks (1)
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
David Martínez

James picks David Martínez to win, praising his footwork, striking variety, and fight IQ. He notes Martínez's ability to pace himself and turn it up late in rounds, and believes Oliveira's chaotic style and poor cardio will be exposed at elevation. James highlights Oliveira's two-year layoff and previous gas-out against Daniel Marcos. He predicts Martínez will win inside the distance, likely in rounds two or three, due to superior footwork and Oliveira's tendency to fade.

Prediction: Martínez inside the distance. Mentions Oliveira's submission threat as a possible angle but favors Martínez.
"David Martinez I think if he doesn't get UFC Jitters on his UFC debut I think that he gets a finish in this fight in rounds two or rounds three."