UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025 · Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg Next Fight
Age 30
Height 5' 7"
Reach 71"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Édgar Cháirez
3.65 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
4.75 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
38.0% TD Def.
1.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - C.J. Vergara
5.02 SLpM
56.0% Str. Acc.
4.69 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Édgar Cháirez
Moneyline
FanDuel -270
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
BetRivers +310
Decision
FanDuel +170
C.J. Vergara
Moneyline
Caesars +225
KO/TKO
DraftKings +750
Submission
BetRivers +2200
Decision
BetWay +450
Édgar Cháirez - Fight History
SCHED vs Bruno Silva
13
138 MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

The host picks Bruno Silva, noting that Silva is better on the mat and can counter while moving forward on the feet. He believes Silva's opportunistic takedowns and slick transitions will give him the edge. He also mentions that Silva does not accept bottom position and is quick to attack submissions.

"I'm taking Bruno Silva."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

AJ picks Bruno Silva due to his well-rounded game, strong wrestling, and experience against elite competition. He views Cháirez as having questionable fight IQ and less proven wins. AJ expects Silva to outwork Cháirez over three rounds, possibly winning a decision, and notes Silva's toughness and activity as green flags.

over 2.5 rounds minus 130; Silva by decision
"I got Bruno Silva to win. I'm not doubting Bruno Silva in this spot. I think Bruno Silva is more crafty than Edgar Shyz."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Angelo picks Bruno Silva, citing his power and output advantage. He believes Silva will be the one moving forward and dictating pace, making Cháirez uncomfortable. He notes that when pressured, Cháirez tends to back up and doesn't fight as comfortably, and may get taken down where he throws up random submissions.

"I am going to pick Bruno because I think he has the power and the output advantage."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Big Brady picks Édgar Cháirez to win by third round knockout. He thinks the market is low on Cháirez after a poor performance in Mexico City, but expects Cháirez to return to his aggressive style. He notes that Bruno Silva is older and has been finished multiple times, and that Cháirez has a good chance to land a big shot late.

by third round knockout
"I'm going to take Edgar Charz here to win. And I think he's going to hopefully, you know, show up this time."
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Édgar Cháirez is the underdog but has power and range with head kicks and jabs. Bruno Silva is past his prime and likely won't take the fight to the ground. Cháirez will win by decision, using his reach advantage and boxing, as Silva's recent performances have been poor.

decision win; underdog pick
"Give me Edgar Shyz by decision."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Bruno Silva is picked because he has faster hands, more power, and better wrestling than Édgar Cháirez. Cháirez struggled against Felipe Bunes and has a tendency to pull guard and sit in his guard. Silva's aggressive pressure and ground and pound should overwhelm Cháirez. The host expects a decision win, as both are durable.

Bruno Silva wins by decision; agrees with -135 line
"I am going with Bruno Silva in this matchup. ... I think Bruno Silva is going to be the aggressor."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Silva has more pathways to victory with his grappling and wrestling advantage. Chavez has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Silva should bank the first round with takedowns and win a decision.

"I'm going to go Bruno Silva to win this one by decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Lucrative James picks Édgar Cháirez, citing Bruno Silva's age (36) and recent decline at flyweight, where fighters peak young. He notes Cháirez's finishing ability, having hurt top fighters like Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira, and Silva's increased vulnerability. He predicts Cháirez will hurt Silva on the feet and secure a submission, possibly a guillotine or rear-naked choke.

Édgar Cháirez via submission
"I'll pick Egaris in this fight. I'll pick him to win the fight via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Silva's pressure, calf kicks, and boxing combinations should overwhelm Cháirez, who lacks one-punch knockout power. Silva dictates the pace and avoids submission threats, grinding out a decision. The -135 line is acceptable.

Silva by decision
"I think Silva is going to continuously move forward. I think he's going to chop away at the lead leg of Chyz."
WIN vs Felipe Bunes
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Édgar Cháirez 0 66 of 136 48% 69 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Felipe Bunes 0 54 of 132 40% 113 of 202 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Édgar Cháirez 0 4 of 9 44% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Felipe Bunes 0 5 of 13 38% 64 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:26
2 Édgar Cháirez 0 21 of 52 40% 21 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Felipe Bunes 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Édgar Cháirez 0 41 of 75 54% 42 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Felipe Bunes 0 29 of 66 43% 29 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Édgar Cháirez 66 of 136 48% 41 of 104 18 of 23 7 of 9 63 of 133 1 of 1 2 of 2
Felipe Bunes 54 of 132 40% 44 of 115 5 of 10 5 of 7 52 of 129 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Édgar Cháirez 4 of 9 44% 1 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Felipe Bunes 5 of 13 38% 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 10 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Édgar Cháirez 21 of 52 40% 14 of 42 6 of 7 1 of 3 20 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Felipe Bunes 20 of 53 37% 15 of 46 2 of 4 3 of 3 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Édgar Cháirez 41 of 75 54% 26 of 56 11 of 15 4 of 4 40 of 74 0 of 0 1 of 1
Felipe Bunes 29 of 66 43% 26 of 58 2 of 5 1 of 3 29 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Felipe Bunes vs. Edgar Chairez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chairez (-300); Bunes (+250)

Round 1
Two flyweights who have struggled as of late will collide with hopes of gaining just a wisp of momentum in their speedy weight class. Chairez (12-6, 1 NC; 2-2, 1 NC UFC) has the crowd on his side in a big way, while Bunes (14-8, 1-2 UFC) is showered in boos and looks to spoil their mood. Referee Marc Goddard is on top of things for as long as the match lasts, bearing witness to a glove touch that opens the fight up.
Bunes stands tall to open the fight, walking down the local favorite with his right hand firing. Chairez backs him off with his jab, but not for long as Bunes pushes the pace on him. Chairez drills the lead leg with a kick, and Bunes frowns, swings hard and shoots in on the hips for a takedown. Chairez defends the initial offering, leaning his head against the cage to keep himself on his feet. Bunes holds on from behind before speedily climbing onto the back to take it standing, and he locks down a body triangle. Bunes starts slugging away with his free left hand while Chairez holds the other to block a choke setup. Bunes elbows Chairez in the side and shoulder, and he is warned for leaning his arm on top of the cage.
Chairez hand-fights to protect his neck, and Bunes nearly snatches it up and is again fussed at for resting his arm on the cage. Fans in the building erupt with frustration as Bunes rests on the top of the cage, and the Brazilian hacks down with multiple unorthodox elbows to the top of the shoulder. Chairez looks confused that strikes are raining down from those angles and actually affecting him, but he is biding his time and hanging on without getting strangled. Bunes picks his elbows carefully so that he does not strike the mohawk line on the top of the head, and he lets loose with clubbing right hands before wrapping his arm around Chairez’ face. Chairez jumps to the ground to slap Bunes down on his back, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bunes
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Bunes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bunes

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves to get going in this round, where Chairez fires off a chopping kick and slips away from a looping left hook. Bunes scores his own low kick, and he aims a stomp kick to the knee before ripping his shin to the body with his free leg. Chairez spins with a back fist that misses the mark, and he walks Bunes down and slugs him in the chin. Bunes fires back, doing enough damage to force Chairez to stop pressuring him for a moment. Bunes reaches out with a right hand, parrying a few jab offerings from his opponent as both men look for options. Chairez bangs a left hand off the guard and follows a right straight to the solar plexus. He then chains a few punches together, only for Bunes to meet him in the pocket with a trio of fists that knock him back.
Chairez resets and smacks Bunes with a spinning back fist, and Bunes has nothing to answer back with and keeps his guard up to defend another that Chairez fakes. Chairez digs a front kick to the torso and hand-fights to protect his mug, and he steps back to avoid a back fist aimed at his face. Chairez dips in an uppercut and a left hook, leading Bunes to strike him back heavily. Bunes headhunts, and Chairez’s head movement and elusiveness are keeping him from taking much damage this round. Bunes goes high with a kick, and Chairez tries to do the same as both men do not connect flush. Bunes gets rocked with a jab and gathers his thoughts to swing back, but he slips. Chairez walks directly into a turning back kick to the pectoral, and Bunes tosses out an inside thigh kick that goes high and cracks into the cup. Goddard calls time as Chairez winces and rubs his eye, which has some damage on it as well as blood leaks into his eye. Chairez bounces up and down and is ready to go in 45 seconds, and he wants to throw down and does just that. Chairez punches his way into a spin, and he knocks Bunes back a bit as the horn ends the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chairez
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Chairez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chairez

Round 3
The last round opens with jabs from both sides, and Chairez scores with his uppercut as Bunes asks for more. Chants for Chairez echo through the arena, but they are quickly silenced when Bunes shoots for and completes a takedown. Chairez kicks off and gets back up, and he intercepts Bunes with a spinning elbow. Bunes backpedals, and Chairez pours it on with a few right hands and a crisp uppercut. Bunes again waves him on, so Chairez does just that by blasting him with body shots. Bunes grits his teeth but is taking damage and not offering much back, and Chairez puts a low kick on him and a few punches to keep him guessing. Chairez rips a right hand upstairs, and Bunes has to back off and take a quick count of his teeth. Bunes jabs the body with a kick and motions that it’s time to brawl, but Chairez does not engage recklessly.
Chairez picks his shots, spinning with a back kick to the body. Bunes sticks him with a jab and backs him off, further bloodying up an already damaged Chairez. Chairez offers up his own power jabs, switching stances and waving his hands around to fluster the Brazilian. Chairez kicks to both legs and swats out a left hand twice, and Bunes slaps his chest to demand he bring it on. Chairez stays in kickboxing range, reaching out with his long left hand and barely blocking a high kick in time. Chairez drills his man in the eye socket with a left hand, and Bunes backpedals in a hurry to protect himself while claiming it was a poke, as Goddard calls for them to keep fighting. Chairez walks Bunes down and digs body shots to open up strike upstairs, and he pushes out a front kick to the sternum. Chairez spins with a wheel kick that slams into Bunes’ head, further knocking him around with two swarming punches, a jump knee and a charge that is stopped before he lands further as time is up. It could go either way, likely depending on how the second round was scored.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chairez (29-28 Chairez)
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Bunes (29-28 Bunes)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chairez (29-28 Chairez)

The Official Result
Edgar Chairez def. Felipe Bunes via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Angelo picks Édgar Cháirez, describing him as a well-rounded fighter with good striking, takedowns, and BJJ. He notes Cháirez's toughness and quality losses to top fighters. He believes Cháirez is too long and tricky for Felipe Bunes, and expects him to win as long as he doesn't get caught in a submission.

Mentions that -275 might look like -500, implying value.
"Edgar's going to be the pick. As long as he doesn't do something stupid and get caught in a submission, which I don't think he does, then that minus 275 might look like minus 500."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Big Brady is high on Édgar Cháirez, praising his toughness, dangerous jiu-jitsu, and improved boxing. He notes Felipe Bunes has poor cardio (especially in elevation) and is dangerous early but likely to gas. Brady predicts Cháirez will hurt Bunes on the feet, Bunes will shoot a sloppy takedown, and Cháirez will snatch a submission, possibly a first-round club and sub.

first round submission
"Give me Edgar Charz to win this fight. I think that's going to be a first round uh submission, maybe a club and sub."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Cody agrees with Paul, highlighting Cháirez's pace, durability, and altitude preparation. He sees Bunes as a prime candidate to fade due to his explosive but unsustainable style. He expects Cháirez to win as the fight progresses.

"I feel like Felipe Bunes we've seen in some of his other fights at sea level. It's just like this is a he's a prime candidate I think to see him absolutely fall off a cliff."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Connor also picks Cháirez but notes that Bunes is a creative striker who can find his timing and land shots. He points out that Bunes's wrestling is a weakness, but Cháirez doesn't wrestle much. However, Connor believes Cháirez's toughness and willingness to push the pace will earn him the win, though it could be a war.

Bunes's creativity; Cháirez's toughness; potential war in later rounds
"Chires for consistency. Oh, totally. Yeah."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)

The host considers this a dog-or-pass fight. Cháirez is a heavy favorite at -347, but the odds feel too wide. He notes that Cháirez has power but slows down, while Bunes has volume but is older and not a finisher. The host would have to bet Bunes if betting, but expects him to lose.

"Another fight where the odds feel very wide. ... If you do want to bet this fight, it is doggo or pass. You have to take Felipe Boon, but just know he will probably lose."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

James views Cháirez as the more well-rounded fighter with better striking, cardio, and durability. He believes Bunes' reckless style will lead to fatigue, allowing Cháirez to finish him. James predicts Cháirez wins inside the distance.

"I got Charis winning this fight inside the distance."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

The host picks Édgar Cháirez inside the distance, expecting a second or third round finish. He notes Cháirez's Muay Thai and jiu-jitsu, and believes his cardio will outlast Bunes, who fades after the first round. He likes the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop at -200 rather than the chalky line on Cháirez.

Fight doesn't go to decision at -200
"My prediction will still be Chz Chavez inside the distance. Uh and I think he gets it done within two and a half rounds."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Paul likes Cháirez's durability, training at altitude, and well-rounded game. He notes Bunes fades after the first round and has poor cardio. He expects Cháirez to take over in rounds 2 and 3 and is comfortable parlaying him.

"I like Edgar Sharez and a minus 355. It's like it's this is not any type of value play, but at some point you're going to have to sink your teeth into some of these favorites and Sharez for me …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Édgar Cháirez

The MMA Guru picks Édgar Cháirez, noting that he looked much better against Joshua Van than Felipe Bunes did. He describes Cháirez as a tricky fighter who is big for flyweight and has finishing potential, predicting a finish in the first two rounds. He also cites the Mexico City altitude advantage for Cháirez.

finish in first two rounds
"I'm going to say Shayrez gets the finish in the first two rounds."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Zane picks Cháirez because he is the more consistent round-to-round danger and has an instinctive sense of where he stands in the fight. He notes that Bunes often starts slow and needs time to process, while Cháirez will increase aggression and take the fight to him. Zane also mentions that Cháirez is rangier and fights long, which could trouble Bunes.

Cháirez's reach advantage; Bunes's slow starts; Cháirez's aggression; odds getting wide
"I got to try res, he might be able to do it."
WIN vs C.J. Vergara
Submission R1 2:30 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Édgar Cháirez 0 8 of 27 29% 8 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
C.J. Vergara 0 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Édgar Cháirez 0 8 of 27 29% 8 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
C.J. Vergara 0 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Édgar Cháirez 8 of 27 29% 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 2 7 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 1
C.J. Vergara 6 of 13 46% 1 of 2 0 of 3 5 of 8 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Édgar Cháirez 8 of 27 29% 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 2 7 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 1
C.J. Vergara 6 of 13 46% 1 of 2 0 of 3 5 of 8 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Edgar Chairez vs. C.J. Vergara
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chairez (-278), Vergara (+225)

Round 1
It is unfortunate that in the year 2025, the UFC is still depositing a match between two fighters with losing records in the promotion this high on its billing. It originally was a bit lower, but when Pyfer vs. Gastelum fell off, this flyweight encounter shifted up to this slot. If there is a silver lining, it is that one of these two will hold the coveted .500 mark in the Octagon at night’s end. Whether that is Chairez (11-6, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) or Vergara (12-6-1, 3-4 UFC), referee Marc Goddard will be the first to know. A respectful glove touch starts things off, and Vergara comes out firing with a one-two that is off the mark. Chairez gets behind his jab, take full advantage of his long reach, and they trade low kicks. Chairez just misses with an uppercut, but his jab is already reddening the face of Vergara. Vergara comes up short on his own offense, and Chairez is able to pick at him from his preferred distance. Jabs continue popping Vergara in the face until calf kicks fly his direction, reddening and welting it in a hurry. Chairez lines up a jab and loops a left hook behind it, flooring Vergara for a moment. Vergara gets back up and tries to escape, but Chairez is on him and backs him to the wall with swinging fists. Vergara drops to his knees, and rather than punch his man out,
the Mexican leaps on Vergara’s back and wraps up a rear-naked choke. The submission is almost instantly tight, but it does not slide underneath the American’s chin and is settled firmly on his jaw. Chairez, destined on keeping his 100% finish rate intact, crushes the face crank with all his might. The sheer horsepower from the squeeze is enough for Vergara to surrender
, and Goddard recognizes the tap and gets between them. The victor, completely overcome with emotion, goes to his corner and then drops to his knees in tears, just now processing what he accomplished in front of thousands of screaming fans. Chairez has the building in the palm of his hands, yet he cannot stop weeping.

The Official Result
Edgar Chairez def. C.J. Vergara R1 2:30 via Submission (Face Crank)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Connor picks Cháirez despite acknowledging his flaws, such as dropping for guillotines and compromising his range. He believes Cháirez is the more likely damage dealer and that Vergara's athletic limitations will be a wall. However, he is not particularly confident due to Cháirez's inconsistency.

"I'll take Chaires as well. I'm not particularly confident about it, he's a hard fighter to trust."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Zane picks Cháirez, noting that Vergara's boxing and wrestling game could be effective but that Cháirez's long straight punches and willingness to work in close make him dangerous. He thinks Vergara may get caught stepping back. Zane is not fully confident due to Cháirez's tendency to make bad decisions.

"It should be so obvious to just take his ass down though right... but I don't know, even if he does who's to say he doesn't just take one straight step backwards and get decked by a long right hand?"
LOSS vs Joshua Van
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joshua Van 0 79 of 189 41% 87 of 197 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:27
Édgar Cháirez 0 118 of 200 59% 183 of 276 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joshua Van 0 40 of 81 49% 40 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Édgar Cháirez 0 23 of 48 47% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Joshua Van 0 28 of 73 38% 33 of 78 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Édgar Cháirez 0 71 of 108 65% 101 of 144 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:14
3 Joshua Van 0 11 of 35 31% 14 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Édgar Cháirez 0 24 of 44 54% 59 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joshua Van 79 of 189 41% 46 of 145 12 of 18 21 of 26 77 of 187 2 of 2 0 of 0
Édgar Cháirez 118 of 200 59% 79 of 155 24 of 30 15 of 15 109 of 187 4 of 4 5 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joshua Van 40 of 81 49% 15 of 52 6 of 8 19 of 21 39 of 80 1 of 1 0 of 0
Édgar Cháirez 23 of 48 47% 12 of 37 4 of 4 7 of 7 23 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joshua Van 28 of 73 38% 21 of 62 6 of 8 1 of 3 27 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0
Édgar Cháirez 71 of 108 65% 52 of 85 14 of 18 5 of 5 67 of 104 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Joshua Van 11 of 35 31% 10 of 31 0 of 2 1 of 2 11 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Édgar Cháirez 24 of 44 54% 15 of 33 6 of 8 3 of 3 19 of 35 0 of 0 5 of 9
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Edgar Chairez vs. Joshua Van
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-218), Chairez (+180)

Round 1
Plugging right along, flyweights take center stage in a fast-paced matchup that is likely to make referee Mark Smith dizzy before it is all over. Once expecting to battle Kevin Borjas, the tables have turned and previously favored Chairez (11-5, 1 NC; 1-1, 1 NC UFC) is now an underdog to replacement Van (10-2, 3-1 UFC). With finish rates of 100% and 80%, respectively, the two will go to battle in hopes of leaving the judges out of the equation once more. They touch gloves before getting down to it, and Chairez introduces himself with three quick kicks. Van resets, and Chairez walks him down to kick him another time in the lead leg. Van fires back, but the kick is checked with a thump. Chairez jabs with the ball of his foot and slams home an outside low kick, and he chambers to release a body kick. Van is getting chewed up by kicks, and Chairez opens up with a pair of swatting left hands. Van lets loose a head kick, and he doubles up on a jab that may have poked Chairez in the eye. Smith warns Van about his outstretched fingers, and Chairez hammers the front leg of his opponent with two more kicks. When Chairez stutter-steps his way in, Van counters with a right hand over the top. Chairez nails the calf once more with a kick, and as Van attempts to counter, Chairez kicks it again. Chairez scoops an uppercut that bangs in the chin of his foe, and Van shakes it off and sticks out a jab. Van evades a low kick but is not out of the way of a sharp jab, and a second kick from Chairez shakes Van up. Van gathers his thoughts and gets up close and personal to throw hands, only to get met with a step-in knee. They both kick one another low, but Chairez’ is much more powerful and damaging. Chairez whiffs on a one-two, but he uses his jab to set strikes up. Van dips under a jab to loop a right hand over the guard, and he connects with two low kicks on the way out. Van scores another low kick that irritates Chairez, but Chairez kicks him back and forces him to limp as well. Chairez’ jab and low kick seemingly cannot miss, and he plants a body kick to the ribs and pecks out with jabs. Van misses on a wheel kick, and Chairez smiles at him and pushes out a jab and a left hook. When Van throws a naked leg kick, Chairez sets him down with a powerful straight right hand. Van pops back up, and Chairez is in his face throwing punches. Chairez calms himself down after missing with a kick, but Van wants to keep swinging in the pocket. Van succeeds in brushing a left hand by the jaw, and Chairez answers with an Andy Hug-inspired spin kick to the lower leg. The horn sounds after the unorthodox blow.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chairez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chairez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chairez

Round 2
After a glove touch, Chairez says hello with a leaping knee. Van pushes past it and puts his hands together. Chairez keeps him at bay with jabs and low kicks, and one calf kick from Van makes Chairez change stances. Van sits down on a short left hand and hammers the front leg with two kicks, and Chaires frowns and tries to give him back a few punches. Van is quicker to the punch on these exchanges, starting combinations first and ending them last. Van strings several punches up high to body, and Chairez leans over showing he is a little hurt. Van turns it on, chasing after the Mexican and letting loose a flurry of fists and feet. Chairez feebly responds, but Van breaks him down with body shots. Van unloads an onslaught of punches and kicks, especially targeting the body, and Chairez is barely on his feet and leaned against the fence. Chairez grabs the fence with one arm, and when Van sells out for a blitz, he spins with a back fist that smashes Van in the face. Van staggers back to the wall, and now it is he who is hurt badly. Van tries to compromise himself by tackling Chairez to the ground, and they both share a laugh and catch their breath after ferocious exchanges. Van decides to stand back up, and they get back to it, with Van landing punch combinations and aiming at the body. Chairez digs deep and launches an overhand right that rocks the man from Myanmar. Van tries to steel himself and charge into the fray, and Chairez jumps guard with a guillotine choke that is tight in an instant. Van manages to work his head out of danger, and he settles down on top. Both fighters need to again get their wind back after another slugfest, and they trade ground strikes until the horn sounds. Talk about a “Round of the Year” contender.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 3
It is anyone’s guess how much these two flyweights have left in the tank after 10 minutes of frenetic action, but they are eager to get going and tap gloves. Chairez starts the round with several low kicks, and he uses them to keep enough distance along with his jabs. Van pushes through a few with a one-two, and he slams home a low kick only to get met with a leg kick coming right back. Van sneaks a right hand over the top, and Chairez jabs him back to the body with a front kick. Van jabs the body, and he receives a one-two in response. Chairez uses head movement to keep himself safe from the majority of the strikes, but a body shot does get to him. Van jabs low and punches high, and Chairez tries to slip and move but finds himself square in the center of a methodical slugfest. Van goes after two punches and a front kick to the gut, and he chases after his foe. As Chairez looks to escape, he trips on Van’s foot and falls to his seat. Van assumes top control in a hurry, but Chairez does not settle for this position and instead tries to stand. Van answers by dropping to his back in pursuit of a heel hook, and he makes Chairez drop back to the mat as well to defend it. Chairez fights out of the leglock and takes Van’s back while they both stand up. Van shoots in for a double-leg takedown, and he lifts Chairez up and slams him back down with emphasis. Chairez defends by throwing his legs up to go after a triangle choke, and he looks his left leg over the shoulder but cannot get his right leg locked up. Van pushes through it and hammerfists his foe in the face several times, and he keeps Chairez stuck in the corner of the floor and the fence. Van sits comfortably in half guard pounding down, using his free left hand to shut Chairez down until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)

The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Edgar Chairez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Angelo picks Joshua Van, calling him the better fighter skill-for-skill. He notes Van is a solid striker with good aggression and decent grappling, while Cháirez is hittable with a negative striking differential. Angelo acknowledges Van is coming off a KO loss but sees this as a good bounceback spot against a more stationary target. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins if nervous about the short notice, but expects Van to win as a 2-to-1 favorite.

Suggests waiting for weigh-ins before betting due to short notice.
"Edgar's not very good guys Edgar is not very good I feel like you're getting a discount on Josh van here... skill for skill Josh van is the better fighter here he's got clean striking decent power good enough grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Big Brady initially considered Cháirez as a live dog due to his submission threat and Van's recent KO loss, but after watching Cháirez's fights, he found Cháirez rarely wrestles and relies on opponents shooting in. He believes Van will win if the fight stays on the feet, but he hates the price and is concerned about Van's durability coming back from a knockout. He predicts Van by decision.

"I do like van here I hate the number I think he's you know too big of a favorite I don't trust him at the price tag but in terms of picking a winner I think Joshua van might be …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Daniel picks Joshua Van, citing his volume and pressure, but warns that Cháirez is dangerous with heavy hands and opportunistic submissions. He thinks Van will out-volume Cháirez but could get caught. He ultimately believes Van gets the win.

"I think he gets guy personally get knocked out yeah I mean that's what I do know"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)

The transcript does not discuss this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Joshua Van

Van is the cleaner and crisper striker of the two, but there is concern about his recent knockout loss. However, his defensive striking is normally not bad. Expects Van to deal with Cháirez's aggressive style early and run away with the fight in deep water, winning on the scorecards.

"I do believe that van is the cleaner and crisper striker of the two but you have to wonder how much he is debilitated by The Knockout loss"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Joshua Van

The MMA Guru picks Joshua Van by decision. He notes that Cháirez doesn't have huge knockout power and is more of a submission guy, but Van won't get submitted. He expects a standup fight and Van's patient approach to see out the first round and work into the second and third. He also justifies the quick turnaround after a KO by noting Van is a small flyweight who doesn't drain himself making weight.

"I'll actually go over Joshua van decision here a little bit more of a patient approach sort of see out that first round get the explosiv explosiveness out the way and then start working into the fight in the second …"
SUB R1 2:17 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
LOSS vs Daniel Lacerda
No Contest (overturned) R1 3:47 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 16, 2023
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Edgar Chairez (131: Missed Weight) vs. Daniel da Silva (127: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chairez (-355), da Silva (+280)

Round 1
Running back a meeting from September that went awry due to an early stoppage from Chris Tognoni, overturning the fight to a no contest, Chairez (10-5, 1 NC; 0-1, 1 NC UFC) and da Silva (11-5, 1 NC; 0-4, 1 NC UFC) will settle their business in the second go-round. Chairez had snared his foe in a standing guillotine choke that mistakenly was identified at one that rendered da Silva unconscious, so da Silva will need to protect his neck this time around. Both fighters ended up missing weight for what was supposed to be a catchweight contest, as the Brazilian came in a pound heavy while Chairez whiffed by five pounds. The referee for the rematch will be Marc Goddard, and the fighters decide to touch gloves despite their history. Chairez reintroduces himself with a faked high kick, and da Silva sits down on offense to counter. Both men fire off kicks at the same time, and Chairez’ slides up and might have bumped the cup but there is no pause. They aim kicks at one another from a distance, taking turns and loading up on one after the other. Chairez spins with a wheel kick that slides off the shoulder, and he recovers and pushes out a front kick. The Brazilian responds with two kicks to the body, and Chairez drives him back with a thudding one-two. Chairez gives chase, and da Silva takes his momentum and repurposes it to tackle Chairez to the ground. Chairez starts talking to the man on top of him, and da Silva answers by elbowing him in the face repeatedly. Chairez kicks off to get some space, and he wraps up a high guard and sets up a triangle choke.
Chairez switches his leg grip to an omoplata, and then goes back to a triangle choke. “Puro Chicali” fastens his legs tight and uses his arms to pull da Silva’s head down to complete the submission. It only takes seconds for da Silva to realize he is beaten, and he taps out on the hip.
Chairez immediately releases, and both men hug it out and express great respect for one another by bowing. The rivalry is complete with no early stoppage this time, and da Silva is now winless in six walks to the Octagon. In victory, the Mexican fighter's coach wraps a purple belt around Chairez' waist, who maintains his 100% finish rate while landing his seventh career submission.

The Official Result
Edgar Chairez def. Daniel da Silva R1 2:17 via Submission (Triangle Choke)
LOSS vs Tatsuro Taira
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatsuro Taira 0 61 of 78 78% 121 of 148 2 of 3 66% 1 1 9:53
Édgar Cháirez 1 25 of 38 65% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatsuro Taira 0 27 of 30 90% 36 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:43
Édgar Cháirez 1 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:11
2 Tatsuro Taira 0 17 of 26 65% 57 of 76 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:10
Édgar Cháirez 0 4 of 7 57% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Tatsuro Taira 0 17 of 22 77% 28 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:00
Édgar Cháirez 0 15 of 21 71% 15 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatsuro Taira 61 of 78 78% 40 of 54 2 of 4 19 of 20 26 of 36 0 of 0 35 of 42
Édgar Cháirez 25 of 38 65% 15 of 23 5 of 6 5 of 9 25 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatsuro Taira 27 of 30 90% 18 of 18 0 of 2 9 of 10 11 of 14 0 of 0 16 of 16
Édgar Cháirez 6 of 10 60% 2 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 4 6 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tatsuro Taira 17 of 26 65% 16 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 22
Édgar Cháirez 4 of 7 57% 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 3 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tatsuro Taira 17 of 22 77% 6 of 11 2 of 2 9 of 9 14 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 4
Édgar Cháirez 15 of 21 71% 10 of 14 4 of 5 1 of 2 15 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Edgar Chairez vs. Tatsuro Taira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-950), Chairez (+650)

Round 1
Thanks in part to some late card rejiggering, highly regarded prospect Taira (13-0, 3-0 UFC) moves his way up the billing. Originally planning on meeting Kleydson Rodrigues, the Japanese prodigy now faces late replacement Chairez (10-4, 0-0 UFC) out of Mexico. The match will take place at a pre-planned 130-pound catchweight, and it will be overseen by referee Herb Dean. It begins with a half-hearted reach of a glove touch try from Chairez, and Taira ignores it so he can get offense going in the form of a chopping leg kick. Chairez gives it back, and chants of “Mexico” rain down in support of the debuting Chairez. Chairez comes up short on another attempt, and he is reached by the man from Japan. The action is largely muted other than occasional kicks from both fighters, with Taira working from both legs. Chairez steps in with a jab as Taira crashes towards him, and when Taira backs off, he continues bludgeoning the lead wheel of his opponent. Taira jabs to force Chairez to backpedal, and he gets kicked off his feet by the Mexican. Chairez gets off a body shot, and he tags Taira with a left hand. Taira wobbles to his seat, and he recovers and moves over to tackle Chairez over to gather himself. Chairez grips hold of a guillotine choke, and it is tight until Taira settles down and drives Chairez back to the corner between the floor and the wall. This allows Taira to threaten with a Von Preux choke, as he keeps Chairez stuck in a bad position. Chairez recognizes the danger, and he releases the grip. Taira slowly and methodically works to pass guard, and Chairez is warned for interlocking his toes in the cage to stifle the pass. Dean slaps and pulls Chairez’ toes out of the links, and he keeps warning Chairez for doing it repeatedly. This foul gets called a few times, but as he is focused on tugging on the links with his big toe, Taira sits on top of him and isolates his left arm to set up a crucifix. Taira elbows Chairez several times, and he is admonished for the angle he uses of the 12-to-6 variety. Taira looks up confusedly at Dean, and he changes his angle of attack until the close round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Chairez

Round 2
The second round begins with the two combatants getting off kicks on one another. Taira changes levels and shoots in for a takedown, and Chairez jumps guard to grab hold of a guillotine choke. The Japanese fighter easily slides his neck out of the choke, where he moves right to half guard and even takes mount briefly before getting bucked back to guard. Chairez shifts his hips, and Taira times it perfectly to move right into mount. Taira smothers his foe when he willingly moves back to half guard, doing so to pin Chairez down. Taira elbows Chairez on the side of the head with light but effective blows, and he hooks his legs together in an effort to trap Chairez’ right arm. Taira continues working with elbows before transitioning to a straight armlock from the other side of the body. Taira, who steps back into mount, postures up to rain down punches and elbows. With 80 seconds to spare, he hammers Chairez with strikes until Chairez turns and almost gives up his back. Taira slashes down with elbows, hurting his opponent, and he calmly lands strikes from a dominant position. Taira considers an arm-triangle choke, and Chairez sits up and wraps his arms around Taira’s waist to hang on. Taira rolls to his back to lock down a triangle choke, and he elbows Chairez on the dome and tightens it up. Pulling the head down to cut off the blood flow to the brain and hopefully deprive his man of oxygen as well, Taira tries with all his might but cannot get the tap before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Taira

Round 3
The last frame kicks off with kicks. Taira wades his way into a striking exchange, and he gets backed off with a left hand. Taira checks a low kick and throws it back. A right hand from the Japanese fighter sneaks over the guard, and Chairez slings a few punches back his direction much to the delight of the crowd. The undefeated fighter pecks at Chairez with leg kicks, and he ducks a looping left hook in the nick of time. Chairez reaches out with a one-two and a subsequent jab, and he shrugs off a body kick. Taira shoots in for a double-leg takedown, and he plants Chairez on his back without Chairez hunting for a guillotine this time. Taira uses shoulder pressure while in half guard to keep Chairez flat on his back, and he elbows his foe on the ear. Taira grinds his elbow on the forehead and forearm on the throat, as he settles for control over offense as the clock keeps ticking. Fans grow restless as Taira clings to top position, even when he lands the occasional elbow. Taira threatens with a guillotine when Chairez sits up, and Chairez is able to fight it off and get back to his feet. Taira goes after a double, and Chairez pulls guard for a guillotine. Chairez locks his feet together and squeezes with every bit of energy he has left, and he rolls over to secure the mounted guillotine choke. Taira toughs it out, with no plan of tapping out no matter how bad it gets, and time expires before the submission puts him out. The scorecards could be all over the map for this one, depending on the potential assessment of a 10-8 in Round 2 and how the first stanza panned out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira (30-27 Taira)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chairez (29-28 Taira)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Taira (29-28 Taira)

The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. Edgar Chairez via Unanimous Decision (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Angelo gives a slight lean to Taira at 50.1%, but he actually bet on Cháirez at +600. He acknowledges Cháirez's solid striking, takedowns, and BJJ, but worries about short notice. He sees Taira's path to victory through grappling and control, but thinks Cháirez is just as dangerous on the ground. The lean is extremely slight, and he encourages viewers to watch tape on Cháirez.

Bet 0.25 units on Cháirez at +600
"the slightest lean of all time is going to be for Tatsu rotira so if I was picking this in percentages I would say tatsuro Tyra 50.1 percent but I'm gonna bet on Edgar"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Big Brady picks Tatsuro Taira to win by submission in the second round. He notes that Taira is a well-rounded fighter with underrated striking and slick grappling, especially back takes and submissions. He believes Cháirez will slow down as the fight goes on, leading to a finish in the second or third round. He mentions that Cháirez has been submitted before by Jesus Aguilar, whom Taira beat in the first round.

submission in round 2
"give me a tatsura tyara to get this guy out of there I'll say second round submission for tayara"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Cody is confident Taira wins but the price is unplayable. He thinks Taira will likely finish Cháirez in the first or second round via submission. He notes Taira's back-taking and submission skills are elite. He considers the under 1.5 rounds at -145 but isn't in love with it because Taira may be patient.

Under 1.5 rounds (-145), Taira by submission
"Tyra is gonna end up being our pick here but uh how quickly does he do it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Connor picks Taira because he is a great problem solver who starts fights passively but uses opponent aggression to set up takedowns and submissions. Cháirez is a wild, aggressive fighter who will likely come forward, and Taira excels at countering that aggression. Taira's ability to blast opponents off their feet when pressured makes him a clear winner.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"If you pressure him instead... Tyra, he solves that problem."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Daniel Levi picks Taira, calling him one of the best Japanese prospects he has ever seen. He praises Taira's ground game, composure, and ability to chain striking to takedowns. Levi respects Cháirez's toughness and his controversial win on Fury FC, but believes Taira's ceiling is much higher and that he is headed straight for the top 15. He notes that the minus-1100 price is prohibitive for betting but still picks Taira to win.

"I'm going to retire here to get this done."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)

James does not make a clear pick on the winner. He disagrees with Taira being a -1000 favorite, capping him around -500 to -600, but does not see enough value on Cháirez at plus money. He discusses props: he likes Taira by decision at +500 more than the submission prop at -200 to -250, and also considers the KO prop at +700. He ultimately passes on betting the fight due to lack of a strong read.

Taira by decision at +500; Taira by KO at +700; over 1.5 rounds (lean, not played)
"I don't agree with Tyra being a minus 1000 favorite I have to say that straight off the bat"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Taira is a skilled Japanese prospect with a strong submission game, especially the rear-naked choke. Cháirez is aggressive and flashy but will likely be taken down and submitted. The fight should be closer than the odds suggest, but Taira will eventually secure a submission victory.

submission
"I do think of the Japanese Prospect continues his undefeated run and stretches his record to 14-0 and that win coming by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Paul agrees Taira wins easily. He notes Cháirez is a short-notice replacement with no clear path to victory. He thinks Taira's grappling is far superior. He says the real question is how quickly Taira finishes, possibly in the first or second round.

Under 1.5 rounds (-145), Taira by submission
"I'm thinking he gets it done probably first or second round I would lean towards second round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

The MMA Guru picks Tatsuro Taira, citing his patient top grappling and submission threat. He notes that Cháirez was taken down by Clayton Carpenter on the contender series, and believes Taira's methodical style will lead to a submission. He acknowledges Cháirez's momentum but sees Taira as a different level of grappler.

"I am gonna have to go with tattoo rotara here to start off the card"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Zane picks Taira because he is a great problem solver who can take whatever Cháirez gives him and turn it into an advantage. Cháirez is overly aggressive and will likely come forward, which plays into Taira's takedown and positional grappling game. Taira is a huge favorite and should be able to submit Cháirez if he gets taken down.

Taira opened at -847, currently -1100; Cháirez opened at +607, currently +691. Zane notes the wide lines.
"This is a chance for Tyra to shine against a very dangerous opponent."
C.J. Vergara - Fight History
LOSS vs Édgar Cháirez
Submission R1 2:30 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Édgar Cháirez 0 8 of 27 29% 8 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
C.J. Vergara 0 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Édgar Cháirez 0 8 of 27 29% 8 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
C.J. Vergara 0 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Édgar Cháirez 8 of 27 29% 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 2 7 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 1
C.J. Vergara 6 of 13 46% 1 of 2 0 of 3 5 of 8 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Édgar Cháirez 8 of 27 29% 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 2 7 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 1
C.J. Vergara 6 of 13 46% 1 of 2 0 of 3 5 of 8 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Edgar Chairez vs. C.J. Vergara
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chairez (-278), Vergara (+225)

Round 1
It is unfortunate that in the year 2025, the UFC is still depositing a match between two fighters with losing records in the promotion this high on its billing. It originally was a bit lower, but when Pyfer vs. Gastelum fell off, this flyweight encounter shifted up to this slot. If there is a silver lining, it is that one of these two will hold the coveted .500 mark in the Octagon at night’s end. Whether that is Chairez (11-6, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) or Vergara (12-6-1, 3-4 UFC), referee Marc Goddard will be the first to know. A respectful glove touch starts things off, and Vergara comes out firing with a one-two that is off the mark. Chairez gets behind his jab, take full advantage of his long reach, and they trade low kicks. Chairez just misses with an uppercut, but his jab is already reddening the face of Vergara. Vergara comes up short on his own offense, and Chairez is able to pick at him from his preferred distance. Jabs continue popping Vergara in the face until calf kicks fly his direction, reddening and welting it in a hurry. Chairez lines up a jab and loops a left hook behind it, flooring Vergara for a moment. Vergara gets back up and tries to escape, but Chairez is on him and backs him to the wall with swinging fists. Vergara drops to his knees, and rather than punch his man out,
the Mexican leaps on Vergara’s back and wraps up a rear-naked choke. The submission is almost instantly tight, but it does not slide underneath the American’s chin and is settled firmly on his jaw. Chairez, destined on keeping his 100% finish rate intact, crushes the face crank with all his might. The sheer horsepower from the squeeze is enough for Vergara to surrender
, and Goddard recognizes the tap and gets between them. The victor, completely overcome with emotion, goes to his corner and then drops to his knees in tears, just now processing what he accomplished in front of thousands of screaming fans. Chairez has the building in the palm of his hands, yet he cannot stop weeping.

The Official Result
Edgar Chairez def. C.J. Vergara R1 2:30 via Submission (Face Crank)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Connor picks Cháirez despite acknowledging his flaws, such as dropping for guillotines and compromising his range. He believes Cháirez is the more likely damage dealer and that Vergara's athletic limitations will be a wall. However, he is not particularly confident due to Cháirez's inconsistency.

"I'll take Chaires as well. I'm not particularly confident about it, he's a hard fighter to trust."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Zane picks Cháirez, noting that Vergara's boxing and wrestling game could be effective but that Cháirez's long straight punches and willingness to work in close make him dangerous. He thinks Vergara may get caught stepping back. Zane is not fully confident due to Cháirez's tendency to make bad decisions.

"It should be so obvious to just take his ass down though right... but I don't know, even if he does who's to say he doesn't just take one straight step backwards and get decked by a long right hand?"
LOSS vs Ramazan Temirov
TKO (punches) R1 2:50 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ramazan Temirov 0 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 3 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ramazan Temirov 0 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 3 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ramazan Temirov 4 of 16 25% 1 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 3 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 23 of 55 41% 18 of 46 4 of 8 1 of 1 20 of 50 0 of 0 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ramazan Temirov 4 of 16 25% 1 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 3 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 23 of 55 41% 18 of 46 4 of 8 1 of 1 20 of 50 0 of 0 3 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Angelo picks Ramazan Temirov, noting his lightning-fast striking and power. He acknowledges that UFC debuts are tricky, but Temirov seems different with confidence and experience pushing through adversity. Angelo believes Temirov's speed and power will be too much for Vergara, especially if he connects like Daniel Lacerda did. He plans to wait for prop bets before wagering.

Waiting for prop bets
"tamarov seems different... I think he's going to get the win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Big Brady picks Ramazan Temirov to win by first-round knockout. He notes Temirov is a knockout artist with power, but Vergara is durable and has never been knocked out. However, Vergara was almost knocked out by Daniel da Silva, so Brady thinks Temirov can hurt him. He worries about Temirov's cardio if the fight goes long, but expects early big shots to get the finish. He suggests this could be a good live bet spot if Temirov doesn't finish in the first.

Temirov by first-round knockout; live bet if not finished in round 1
"I'll go tamarov to win this fight I'll say first round knockout but this might be a good like live bet spot"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Vergara is a very tough test but Temirov's athleticism and ability to land shocking shots give him the edge. He points out that Vergara is slow and not dynamic, and Temirov's scrambling ability makes him hard to hold down. Connor thinks the odds are too wide in Temirov's favor.

Odds too wide; Temirov should be around -150 to -200, Vergara around +150 to +100.
"I got to agree on and if it's a very if it's a more typical kind of performance or even on the the more lackadaisical side then Vergara is totally capable of kind of shutting him out"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Daniel is very high on Temirov's aggressive, spinning attack style and killer instinct, but he worries about a potential debut stun. He notes that Vergara is durable and well-rounded but not exceptional. Daniel believes if Temirov fights with his usual confidence, he will win impressively, possibly even becoming the first to knock out Vergara in the UFC.

"I'm picking Temirov 100%... as long as Ramazan Temirov doesn't pull some debut stun where he's hesitant to throw, I think he's going to whoop CJ Vergara's ass."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Temirov is a much better version of Vergara, both leaning on striking. Temirov is more explosive, faster, and better with footwork, cutting angles to crash the pocket. He should land big strikes and find a knockout within the first two rounds.

knockout within first two rounds
"look for him to land his big strikes and eventually finding knockout here over Vergara within the first two rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

The MMA Guru picks Ramazan Temirov, praising his finishing potential, explosiveness, and activity. He dismisses C.J. Vergara as 'dog [__]' and notes Vergara's losses and lack of talent. He expects Temirov to win by decision, as Vergara may put up a fight and take a round, but Temirov's youth and experience edge prevail.

decision
"I'm going to go with ramesan Beck tamarov getting this one done probably by decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Zane thinks Temirov can win if he pushes for the finish, as he is an athletic freak with fast, accurate strikes. However, he notes Temirov has a poor understanding of pace and often wastes time circling. Zane acknowledges Vergara is a tough, persistent pressure fighter who could shut Temirov out if he's lackadaisical.

Odds too wide; Temirov should be around -150 to -200, Vergara around +150 to +100.
"I just think this looks like the kind of fight where as long as Tamarov like pushes for the finish he'll probably be able to win it"
LOSS vs Asu Almabayev
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Asu Almabayev 0 29 of 53 54% 66 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
C.J. Vergara 0 44 of 77 57% 85 of 132 9 of 14 64% 0 0 9:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Asu Almabayev 0 7 of 14 50% 13 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
C.J. Vergara 0 16 of 25 64% 23 of 34 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:14
2 Asu Almabayev 0 8 of 12 66% 25 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 0 12 of 21 57% 36 of 55 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:35
3 Asu Almabayev 0 14 of 27 51% 28 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 0 16 of 31 51% 26 of 43 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Asu Almabayev 29 of 53 54% 13 of 32 14 of 17 2 of 4 22 of 46 4 of 4 3 of 3
C.J. Vergara 44 of 77 57% 22 of 53 9 of 11 13 of 13 23 of 51 8 of 10 13 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Asu Almabayev 7 of 14 50% 3 of 9 3 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 16 of 25 64% 7 of 15 3 of 4 6 of 6 10 of 19 2 of 2 4 of 4
2 Asu Almabayev 8 of 12 66% 5 of 8 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 3
C.J. Vergara 12 of 21 57% 10 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 9 1 of 2 7 of 10
3 Asu Almabayev 14 of 27 51% 5 of 15 9 of 11 0 of 1 13 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 16 of 31 51% 5 of 19 5 of 6 6 of 6 9 of 23 5 of 6 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Angelo is confident in Asu Almabayev, citing his wild striking, strong grappling, and cardio. He notes that if Tatu Riera could take down Vergara three times, Almabayev can too. He sees Almabayev as safe to parlay, contrasting him with point fighters he's wary of.

"asu's going to win this fight he's just too good he's Wild on his feet he's great on the ground he can hang in the cardio Department with CJ and quite simply if Tatu ryra who is very good but …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by third-round submission. He notes that Almabayev has good grappling and control, and that Vergara has been taken down and submitted in the past. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the mat and eventually find a submission over 15 minutes.

win by third round submission
"give me alv here Alma to win this fight by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Cody thinks Almabayev's wrestling will be too much for Vergara, who has poor takedown defense. He expects Almabayev to chain wrestle and control the fight on the ground, possibly securing a submission.

Almabayev by submission (+150)
"I gotta roll with the favorite here what is assu by sub let's see it's early in the week obviously the early prelims don't have too many props out plus 150 and moving it opened at plus 175 I mean …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Daniel picks Almabayev, believing he will dictate the pace and win by decision or submission. He notes Vergara is durable and well-rounded but not special anywhere. Daniel was initially low on Almabayev but was impressed by his performance against Ode' Osbourne.

"I think that alabay is going to dictate the pace and he's going to win on the scorecards or or by submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Almabayev is a hot prospect who is very solid all around, but his best work is when he gets fights to the mat. He has impressive chain wrestling, using body locks and trips to drag opponents down. Vergara is a decent striker but lacks the power to keep Almabayev at bay, and his ground game is a weakness. I expect Almabayev to drag this fight to the ground, dominate from top position, and secure another submission victory.

Almabayev by submission
"I expect alab to drag this fight to the ground dominate from that top position and secure another submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Paul agrees, noting that Vergara has been taken down repeatedly and submitted in the past. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and submission skills will lead to a finish.

Almabayev by submission (+150)
"I gotta roll with the favorite here what is assu by sub let's see it's early in the week obviously the early prelims don't have too many props out plus 150 and moving it opened at plus 175 I mean …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

The MMA Guru is confident in Asu Almabayev due to his grappling advantage and C.J. Vergara's unimpressive UFC run. He notes Vergara has struggled against lower-level opponents and was dominated by Tatsuya Taira and Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Almabayev's dominant grappling win over Osbourne and predicts a first-round submission.

submission in the first round
"I am going to have to side with the grappling of ASU almv ... I'm going to go with ASU alab BV winning this fight by submission in the first round"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
C.J. Vergara 0 109 of 181 60% 109 of 181 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinicius Salvador 0 88 of 195 45% 89 of 196 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 C.J. Vergara 0 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinicius Salvador 0 20 of 40 50% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 C.J. Vergara 0 45 of 71 63% 45 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinicius Salvador 0 30 of 64 46% 31 of 65 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
3 C.J. Vergara 0 44 of 77 57% 44 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinicius Salvador 0 38 of 91 41% 38 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
C.J. Vergara 109 of 181 60% 43 of 102 45 of 57 21 of 22 104 of 176 5 of 5 0 of 0
Vinicius Salvador 88 of 195 45% 54 of 154 19 of 25 15 of 16 87 of 194 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 C.J. Vergara 20 of 33 60% 4 of 14 10 of 13 6 of 6 20 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vinicius Salvador 20 of 40 50% 8 of 26 3 of 4 9 of 10 20 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 C.J. Vergara 45 of 71 63% 14 of 34 21 of 26 10 of 11 41 of 67 4 of 4 0 of 0
Vinicius Salvador 30 of 64 46% 19 of 50 6 of 9 5 of 5 29 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 C.J. Vergara 44 of 77 57% 25 of 54 14 of 18 5 of 5 43 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
Vinicius Salvador 38 of 91 41% 27 of 78 10 of 12 1 of 1 38 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Angelo is very confident in C.J. Vergara, calling him as close to a lock as you can get. He highlights Vergara's incredible chin, pressure, power, and solid takedown defense. He plans to bet on him but is monitoring the line movement for the best value.

monitoring line movement for value
"I think he's as close to a lock as you're gonna get we know he has an incredible chin if he gets caught he should have the better pressure equal or better power and solid enough takedown defense to stand …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Big Brady picks C.J. Vergara to win by late third-round knockout. He questions Salvador's legitimacy after a terrible debut, citing poor striking, takedown defense, and fight IQ. He believes Vergara has durability and cardio advantages, especially at elevation, and expects Vergara to weather an early storm and finish a fading Salvador late.

late third round knockout
"I'll take uh CG regara here I'll take him to whether the early storm put it on Venetia Salvador and I think he can finish him late third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Cody likes Vergara's significant strikes over 57.5 on PrizePicks, expecting a striking match that goes into the third round. He notes Vergara's volume in previous fights (71 against Rodriguez) and believes he can reach that number. He doesn't have a strong side on the moneyline but leans Vergara for the prop.

Vergara over 57.5 significant strikes
"some prize picks 57 and a half significant strikes for Vergara I kind of think that this goes at least into the third round"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

James sides with Salvador as a dog, believing he has cleaner hands and more power than Vergara. He notes Vergara is durable but gets hit often and has been hurt in multiple fights. He thinks Salvador can have big moments and possibly knock Vergara down, and that the line should be closer to a pick'em.

"I have to side with him a plus 140 I have to say he's the side"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

Salvador is a crafty striker who will have an easier time hitting Vergara than he did against Altamirano. Vergara's grappling isn't good enough to ground Salvador effectively. Salvador's output and damage will earn him a decision. I'm taking Salvador by decision.

"I'm actually going to take him to one by decision I think it's going to be the output and the volume and then the constant you know eating up of clock from Vergara whether it's in the clinch or with …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

Paul picks Salvador at plus money, citing his power and size advantage. He notes Vergara's lack of takedown threat and tendency to stay in the pocket, which plays into Salvador's hands. He worries about Salvador's cardio at altitude but believes his power can get the job done early. He calls it a 'dog or pass' but leans Salvador.

"I am actually going to take vinicius Salvador he was hoping he brings uh brings his lunchbox with him"
TKO (punches) R2 4:04 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
C.J. Vergara 0 83 of 144 57% 98 of 164 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:54
Daniel Lacerda 2 48 of 117 41% 51 of 120 1 of 2 50% 2 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 C.J. Vergara 0 20 of 38 52% 24 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Daniel Lacerda 2 44 of 103 42% 46 of 105 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:40
2 C.J. Vergara 0 63 of 106 59% 74 of 122 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:51
Daniel Lacerda 0 4 of 14 28% 5 of 15 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
C.J. Vergara 83 of 144 57% 57 of 103 16 of 29 10 of 12 34 of 65 0 of 2 49 of 77
Daniel Lacerda 48 of 117 41% 32 of 94 11 of 17 5 of 6 42 of 106 4 of 7 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 C.J. Vergara 20 of 38 52% 8 of 21 4 of 8 8 of 9 20 of 36 0 of 2 0 of 0
Daniel Lacerda 44 of 103 42% 30 of 84 9 of 13 5 of 6 38 of 92 4 of 7 2 of 4
2 C.J. Vergara 63 of 106 59% 49 of 82 12 of 21 2 of 3 14 of 29 0 of 0 49 of 77
Daniel Lacerda 4 of 14 28% 2 of 10 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Angelo is very confident in Vergara, calling him one of his most confident picks. He notes that Vergara is a high-pressure fighter who stays busy and is tough. He thinks da Silva is dangerous early but fades, and Vergara's pressure will be too much. He recommends betting 'fight doesn't go to decision' rather than a moneyline.

Fight doesn't go to decision (recommended parlay piece)
"CJ Vergara is one of my most confident picks on this entire card."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Big Brady picks C.J. Vergara by first-round knockout, calling Daniel da Silva not UFC caliber. He notes da Silva's poor cardio (2.5 minutes of gas), lack of durability, and tendency to fold under adversity. Brady believes Vergara's pressure and toughness will overwhelm da Silva, who has been finished in all three UFC losses. He expects a quick finish as soon as da Silva faces any adversity.

Vergara by KO/TKO in round 1
"I like Vergara here I like vegara by finish first round finish even"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Cody picks Vergara, calling the line bad and favoring Vergara's heart and cardio. He notes da Silva is explosive but fades after the first round, while Vergara is tenacious and breaks opponents down. He suggests Vergara inside the distance and likes the over 1.5 rounds on PrizePicks (over 5 minutes).

Vergara inside the distance; over 1.5 rounds
"Pick would be varaguera to improve this thing bear gear inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Vergara without hesitation. He describes Lacerda as a 'flyweight Eric Silva' who is dangerous in the first minute but then falls apart. Vergara is a proven tough guy who hangs around and doesn't get blown out, making him a reliable pick against a fighter with no regulation or longevity in his style.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm with you all the way on this one."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Jacob picks Vergara, agreeing that he should win with toughness. He notes that da Silva is dangerous early but fades, and Vergara's toughness should carry him. However, he feels da Silva is 'due' for a win and might pull off an upset, but still picks Vergara.

"CJ is a play because you should get it done but there's just something about Daniel it's like it feels like this might be his moment."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

The host picks Daniel da Silva as a big underdog, believing his speed, explosiveness, and power advantage will be too much for Vergara. He notes da Silva is fighting for his job and expects a calculated but reckless style. He predicts a first-round finish, possibly by submission, and likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and under 1.5 rounds.

fight doesn't go to decision, under 1.5 rounds, Daniel da Silva round 1
"I'm gonna go Daniel Da Silva first round I'm gonna call it via club and sub"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

The Guru picks Vergara, heavily criticizing da Silva's fight IQ and defensive mistakes. He believes Vergara is more reliable and can tough out danger. He predicts a second or third round TKO.

second or third round TKO
"I'm gonna go for CJ fagara here... I think he's consistently more trustworthy as a fighter than Daniel de Silva is"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Zane picks C.J. Vergara because he sees Daniel Lacerda as a self-destructive fighter who explodes and fades quickly, while Vergara is tough, reliable, and consistently puts forward pressure. Vergara may be slow and not athletic, but he is durable and will be in Lacerda's face the whole time. Zane notes that Lacerda has imploded in every UFC fight so far, and Vergara is exactly the kind of grinder who can survive the initial storm and take over.

Odds: Lacerda opened at +220, currently +203; Vergara opened at -216, currently -256. Zane likes Vergara as a reasonable favorite.
"I can't pick the dude who just got his shit wrecked by Victor Altamorano."
LOSS vs Tatsuro Taira
Submission (armbar) R2 4:19 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatsuro Taira 0 22 of 36 61% 31 of 46 3 of 8 37% 2 0 6:19
C.J. Vergara 0 19 of 30 63% 29 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatsuro Taira 0 13 of 22 59% 21 of 31 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:30
C.J. Vergara 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:31
2 Tatsuro Taira 0 9 of 14 64% 10 of 15 1 of 4 25% 2 0 2:49
C.J. Vergara 0 11 of 17 64% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatsuro Taira 22 of 36 61% 14 of 28 5 of 5 3 of 3 15 of 26 3 of 4 4 of 6
C.J. Vergara 19 of 30 63% 13 of 23 5 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 23 3 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatsuro Taira 13 of 22 59% 10 of 19 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 13 2 of 3 4 of 6
C.J. Vergara 8 of 13 61% 4 of 8 4 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Tatsuro Taira 9 of 14 64% 4 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 11 of 17 64% 9 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 14 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tatsuro Taira vs. C.J. Vergara (129: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-240), Vergara (+200)

Round 1
For the second time in three UFC appearances, Vergara (10-3-1, 1-1 UFC) has come in well over the flyweight limit. Ahead of his pairing with the undefeated Taira (11-0, 1-0 UFC), Vergara clocked in at 129 ready pounds. While collecting 30% of Vergara’s paycheck, Japan’s Taira will try to keep his spotless record intact against a heavier foe. The Octagon ranger for this now-129-pound catchweight contest will be referee Kerry Hatley, and the two fighters slowly move towards one another with no intention of a glove touch. Vergara looks to close the distance early, sticking out a few jabs, and Taira stays light on his feet to respond with a quick high kick. Vergara lumbers towards the longer man, and he walks right into a left hook. As Vergara keeps plodding forward, Taira grabs hold of him, lifts him in the air and slams him down while letting out a yelp. The Japanese fighter lands in side control, and he grips tightly to squeeze his shoulder down on Vergara’s head. Vergara bucks a few times, but he only ends up getting elbowed for his work. Taira attempts to move to mount, and as he does, Vergara times a kick-off to stop the guard pass. Taira keeps moving, and he works his way to north-south position while Vergara traps his foe’s head between his legs with an inverted scissor choke of sorts. Taira shrugs it off and shifts to side control, and he glides into mount. The American times this perfectly to spin Taira around, and he finds himself on top. Taira does not accept this, kicking Vergara off of him and returning them to the feet. They trade kicks, and Taira shoots for a takedown as Vergara is backed up to the wall. Taira jumps immediately to full mount, but this is a short-lived positional maneuver as Vergara pulls him back and threatens with a guillotine choke. This is not the best plan for him, as Taira uses that against him and crushes down with a Von Preux choke. Vergara grimaces and manages to release his grip, and Taira slides to the side and prepares to move to mount again. Vergara skillfully turns Taira over, and he uses a modified arm-triangle choke to keep Taira honest. The unbeaten fighter grits out of the choke and stands up, where he promptly tees off on his man with punches and a knee. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Taira

Round 2
Vergara darts out of his corner, but he cannot find his target to start off the round. Taira drifts out of harm’s way and plans a leg kick so heavily that Vergara falls over to the mat. Taira allows him to stand so that he can lay into him with another nasty calf kick. Taira lets his hands go with a one-two, and he surprises Vergara with his left shin. Vergara attempts to respond with a looping left hand, and Taira changes levels and nearly walks into a knee. The American keeps his balance and backs off to score a few punches, and Taira responds with a knee strike and a takedown effort. Vergara backs off to the cage in an effort to keep himself upright, but Taira brilliantly snakes around the side to trip out Vergara from behind, where he lands on his back while claiming back control. Vergara fights off a body triangle from one side, and as soon as he moves to break it, Taira shifts his lefts to the other side. While Vergara attempts to escape, Taira latches on to a rear-naked choke, but it is on the chin. Taira nevertheless squeezes with all his might, hoping for a face crank if he cannot sneak the forearm beneath the chin. The Japanese fighter releases the submission so as to not burn his arms out from attempting an unsecured choke, and he switches to his other side with another rear-naked choke. Vergara keeps his chin down, surviving another choke, and he prepares to escape.
As his opponent takes a breath, Taira transitions right into an armbar, and Vergara stands up. The arm of the heavier fighter is still very much trapped in the armbar, and he considers lifting Taira up to slam him out but he does not have the horsepower to do so. The elbow hyperextends as Taira straightens the arm out and then some, and Vergara promptly taps out to escape permanent damage
. That’s one more win for the still-unbeaten Taira, who now celebrates exactly half of his pro wins by submission.

The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. C.J. Vergara R2 4:19 via Submission (Armbar)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Angelo picks C.J. Vergara as an underdog, noting that he has takedown defense, pressure, and is a dangerous striker. He is surprised by the 3-to-1 odds favoring Taira, as Vergara only has one close loss in the UFC. Angelo likes Vergara's chances and placed a half-unit bet at +205 (now +200). He acknowledges some nervousness about backing an underdog at these odds but is confident in his pick.

Bet 0.5 units at +205 (now +200)
"I throw half a unit on him at plus 200 all the premium members saw that or sorry at plus 205"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Big Brady leans toward Tatsuro Taira to win by submission in the second round. He praises Taira's elite grappling and back-takes, but has concerns about his low striking volume and wrestling. He notes that Vergara throws high volume and could win if the fight stays on the feet. Brady says he's not touching the -240 price but picks Taira to get a takedown and finish with his ground game.

Taira wins by submission, second round
"I am leaning on the Tara side... I'll take him to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Cody picks Taira by submission, noting his slick grappling and ability to take the back. He points out Vergara exposes his back when getting up and makes mistakes. He likes the submission prop at +350 and thinks Taira will find a finish.

Taira by submission +350; Taira under 60.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think Tyra could very well find the finish here and and do so by submission so I'm impressed."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Taira has a similar striking style to Odie Osborne, using length and kicks, but mixes in solid jiu-jitsu and back takes. Vergara is tough and has pressure, but Taira should control the distance and find takedowns. The host is not fully sold on Taira's potential at -230 but expects him to win by decision. He likes Taira but not enough to bet the moneyline.

"I like Tara here just not 100 sold on his uh money line here at minus 230"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Paul picks Taira, expecting him to take Vergara's back and control him. He compares Taira's grappling to Ryan Hall or Aljamain Sterling, noting his ability to body triangle and neutralize opponents. He thinks Taira will dominate but is unsure if he will submit or just control.

"I gotta say uh targets the job does he submit him I don't know I'm kind of thinking he just takes his back and controls him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

The MMA Guru picks Tatsuro Taira, believing he has overcome debut jitters and will make significant improvements as a 22-year-old. He notes that CJ Vergara is underrated but gives up positional control and leaves openings in scrambles. He predicts Taira will find the back and choke out Vergara in the second round via rear-naked choke.

prediction: submission in round 2
"I think eventually tatsuro Terra will find the back and choke out CJ Vergara"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
C.J. Vergara 0 81 of 143 56% 93 of 156 2 of 7 28% 1 2 3:14
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 71 of 127 55% 155 of 221 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 C.J. Vergara 0 48 of 88 54% 52 of 92 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:54
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 27 of 51 52% 54 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 C.J. Vergara 0 13 of 17 76% 20 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:09
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 26 of 39 66% 65 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
3 C.J. Vergara 0 20 of 38 52% 21 of 40 1 of 3 33% 1 1 2:11
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 18 of 37 48% 36 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
C.J. Vergara 81 of 143 56% 39 of 91 32 of 40 10 of 12 70 of 131 6 of 7 5 of 5
Kleydson Rodrigues 71 of 127 55% 42 of 89 18 of 25 11 of 13 45 of 92 7 of 10 19 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 C.J. Vergara 48 of 88 54% 20 of 52 18 of 24 10 of 12 44 of 84 4 of 4 0 of 0
Kleydson Rodrigues 27 of 51 52% 12 of 31 8 of 11 7 of 9 25 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 C.J. Vergara 13 of 17 76% 8 of 11 5 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 13 1 of 1 3 of 3
Kleydson Rodrigues 26 of 39 66% 21 of 32 3 of 5 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 18 of 24
3 C.J. Vergara 20 of 38 52% 11 of 28 9 of 10 0 of 0 17 of 34 1 of 2 2 of 2
Kleydson Rodrigues 18 of 37 48% 9 of 26 7 of 9 2 of 2 13 of 30 4 of 6 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Angelo picks C.J. Vergara despite the bookies favoring Kleydson Rodrigues. He believes Vergara can get inside Rodrigues' looping punches and beat him to the punch. He notes that Vergara is a beast in the clinch but worries about Rodrigues' takedowns from the clinch. He references Vergara's striking output in his UFC debut.

"I think cj can get inside of them and literally beat clayton to the punch"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Kleydson Rodrigues to win by decision. He is impressed by Rodrigues' striking volume, mixing kicks to the legs, body, and head. Vergara is tough and had a close fight with Ode Osbourne, but Rodrigues is a much tougher matchup on the feet. Rodrigues has good get-up game if taken down. Brady thinks Rodrigues has more tools and will outwork Vergara over three rounds, though the -280 price is steep. He expects a decision win for Rodrigues.

decision
"I like clinton rodriguez here quite a bit ... I like rodriguez here and I like him quite a bit and I'm excited to see him make his debut"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Cody picks Kleydson Rodrigues, calling him a promising prospect with excellent technique. He notes Rodrigues' knees, elbows, and cardio, and that he improves as the fight goes on. Cody contrasts Vergara's straight-line movement and poor footwork. He believes Rodrigues will outwork Vergara and likely win a decision.

"i would think i'm leaning towards decision for clayton rodriguez"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Daniel Levi picks Kleydson Rodrigues confidently, though he does not bet due to the high price. He likes Rodrigues' athleticism, kicks, and takedown defense, and thinks he has a much higher ceiling than Vergara. He acknowledges Vergara's toughness and cardio but expects Rodrigues to win. He does not bet at -350.

Daniel does not bet this fight. He mentions possibly putting Rodrigues in a parlay but does not.
"My pick is Clayton. I think he's got the much higher ceiling. I think he's the much more potential. But CJ, he's got that spirit about him. So it's gonna be a good fight but give me Clayton to get …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

The host is very high on Kleydson Rodrigues, calling him a future top 5-7 flyweight. He praises his striking and jiu-jitsu, though notes cardio is questionable. He dismisses C.J. Vergara as a solid striker but not UFC caliber, pointing to Vergara's close decisions and draws on the regional scene. He expects Rodrigues to win via decision, as Vergara is durable. He might include Rodrigues in a parlay.

"clayton i think this guy is the [ __ ] i think he truly has the potential to be a top five to seven guy in this division"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Paul picks Kleydson Rodrigues, impressed by his defensive capabilities and well-rounded game. He notes that Rodrigues barely got hit on the Contender Series and has good striking defense. Paul believes Vergara is limited, throwing looping left hooks, and that Rodrigues will cover the price tag. He acknowledges the debut nerves but is confident.

"i'm picking clayton to win in this spot i do think that he's uh he's a real decent uh prospect coming up into this division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Kleydson Rodrigues, praising his unorthodox style and power. He believes Rodrigues' movement and kicks will keep Vergara guessing, and that Vergara may become overwhelmed. He predicts Rodrigues will win the first two rounds, possibly scoring a knockdown, and win 29-28. He notes Rodrigues is a big, powerful flyweight at 26 years old.

Rodrigues 29-28
"i'm gonna go i've played some rodriguez 29-28 winning the first two rounds on his unorthodoxy and his power"
LOSS vs Ode' Osbourne
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ode' Osbourne 0 93 of 165 56% 122 of 197 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:41
C.J. Vergara 0 79 of 194 40% 89 of 208 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ode' Osbourne 0 24 of 52 46% 24 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
C.J. Vergara 0 34 of 75 45% 34 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Ode' Osbourne 0 28 of 48 58% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 0 26 of 71 36% 31 of 78 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:17
3 Ode' Osbourne 0 41 of 65 63% 70 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:40
C.J. Vergara 0 19 of 48 39% 24 of 55 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ode' Osbourne 93 of 165 56% 35 of 99 51 of 59 7 of 7 68 of 129 16 of 22 9 of 14
C.J. Vergara 79 of 194 40% 61 of 168 15 of 23 3 of 3 77 of 191 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ode' Osbourne 24 of 52 46% 10 of 35 10 of 13 4 of 4 22 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 34 of 75 45% 23 of 62 9 of 11 2 of 2 34 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ode' Osbourne 28 of 48 58% 11 of 30 14 of 15 3 of 3 28 of 46 0 of 2 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 26 of 71 36% 21 of 63 4 of 7 1 of 1 25 of 69 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Ode' Osbourne 41 of 65 63% 14 of 34 27 of 31 0 of 0 18 of 34 14 of 17 9 of 14
C.J. Vergara 19 of 48 39% 17 of 43 2 of 5 0 of 0 18 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Angelo picks Ode' Osbourne, citing his power edge, versatility, and size advantage at 125 lbs. He believes Vergara's forward pressure and boxing-heavy style will play into Osbourne's counter-striking and range control. However, he notes concern about Osbourne's recent knockout just two months ago, which may affect his chin. He also mentions that Osbourne has switched camps to Syndicate MMA and seems more focused.

Over 1.5 rounds (monkey knife fight line)
"i'm gonna go with oday here... i think he's got the power edge he's definitely the more versatile fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Big Brady picks Ode' Osbourne to win by first-round submission. He notes Osbourne's reach advantage and wrestling potential, though Osbourne hasn't used takedowns much in the UFC. He believes if Osbourne implements a wrestling-heavy game plan, he can make it look easy, but if he stands and strikes, it could be risky. Brady sees Vergara as vulnerable on the ground and expects Osbourne to get him down and submit him early.

first round submission
"I'm actually going to take osborne here uh for the win i'm going to take him to win by a first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Cody picks Vergara as a dog, citing Osbourne's history of fading after the first round. He notes Vergara's finishing ability in later rounds and durability. He suggests live betting if Osbourne slows down.

"i'll take cj vergara because you know cody's chasing a dog again"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, citing his experience in big fights and reach advantage. He notes that Osbourne has fought on Conor McGregor cards and has been in there with tough competition. Levi acknowledges that C.J. Vergara is a talented dog with a bright future, but believes Osbourne's seasoning and the pressure of a Madison Square Garden debut favor him. He expects a close fight where Osbourne digs deep.

close decision
"give me the more season o'day osbourne in this spot"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Jacob agrees with Angelo, picking Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Osbourne's power at 125 lbs and his improved camp at Syndicate MMA. He worries about Vergara's takedowns, as Osbourne is a good grappler but not a wrestler, and could end up on his back. However, he believes Osbourne's striking advantage and the positive camp change will lead to a win.

"i agree i'm on the oday side of this but cj those takedowns worry me a little bit but i like oday all the way on this one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

The host leans Osbourne due to his striking from the outside and sneaky choke game. He expects Osbourne to ground Vergara and look for a submission, noting Vergara's recent submission loss. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and Osbourne's submission prop at +285. He has Osbourne parlayed with something else on the card.

under 2.5 rounds (-130), Osbourne by submission (+285)
"i do lean the osborne side i do like his striking from the outside i do think it will cause carlos a ton of pr issues"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick, calling it a pass. He notes Osbourne's talent but worries about his cardio. He suggests live betting Vergara if Osbourne slows down.

"i would chalk this up as like a probably a pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

The Guru picks C.J. Vergara as the underdog, citing Osbourne's recent flying knee KO loss just three months prior, which he believes is too quick a turnaround. He notes Vergara's momentum from a KO win on the Contender Series and his aggressive style with powerful knees. The Guru also questions Osbourne's weight cut to flyweight and his durability, predicting Vergara will land big knees in the clinch and possibly finish with body shots.

"I'm going to take the underdog in CJ Vergara which I very much like the sound of because I don't know why he's an underdog here."
Expert Picks (2)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Connor picks Cháirez despite acknowledging his flaws, such as dropping for guillotines and compromising his range. He believes Cháirez is the more likely damage dealer and that Vergara's athletic limitations will be a wall. However, he is not particularly confident due to Cháirez's inconsistency.

"I'll take Chaires as well. I'm not particularly confident about it, he's a hard fighter to trust."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Zane picks Cháirez, noting that Vergara's boxing and wrestling game could be effective but that Cháirez's long straight punches and willingness to work in close make him dangerous. He thinks Vergara may get caught stepping back. Zane is not fully confident due to Cháirez's tendency to make bad decisions.

"It should be so obvious to just take his ass down though right... but I don't know, even if he does who's to say he doesn't just take one straight step backwards and get decked by a long right hand?"
Comments (1)
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Rocked him then subbed him.