Christian Rodriguez vs Melquizael Costa

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Andre Fili	0	64 of 182	35%	74 of 193	3 of 5	60%	0	0	1:42
Christian Rodriguez	0	83 of 174	47%	95 of 190	1 of 7	14%	0	0	1:35

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Andre Fili	0	22 of 63	34%	27 of 68	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
Christian Rodriguez	0	29 of 64	45%	29 of 66	1 of 3	33%	0	0:35
2	Andre Fili	0	23 of 69	33%	23 of 69	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
Christian Rodriguez	0	29 of 56	51%	30 of 57	0 of 3	0%	0	0:28
3	Andre Fili	0	19 of 50	38%	24 of 56	3 of 4	75%	0	1:42
Christian Rodriguez	0	25 of 54	46%	36 of 67	0 of 1	0%	0	0:32

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Andre Fili	64 of 182	35%	52 of 164	6 of 10	6 of 8	62 of 179	2 of 3	0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez	83 of 174	47%	49 of 130	8 of 13	26 of 31	69 of 157	13 of 16	1 of 1

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Andre Fili	22 of 63	34%	19 of 56	1 of 4	2 of 3	22 of 63	0 of 0	0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez	29 of 64	45%	13 of 43	4 of 6	12 of 15	28 of 63	0 of 0	1 of 1
2	Andre Fili	23 of 69	33%	18 of 62	2 of 3	3 of 4	23 of 69	0 of 0	0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez	29 of 56	51%	17 of 40	3 of 5	9 of 11	27 of 54	2 of 2	0 of 0
3	Andre Fili	19 of 50	38%	15 of 46	3 of 3	1 of 1	17 of 47	2 of 3	0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez	25 of 54	46%	19 of 47	1 of 2	5 of 5	14 of 40	11 of 14	0 of 0

Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-250); Fili (+200)

Round 1
With eight years separating the two, this featherweight contest could be considered one of the “passing of the torch” variety. Fili (24-12, 1 NC; 12-11, 1 NC UFC), 35, needs a win badly, as he has alternated them with defeats for his seven outings and is a loss away from a .500 UFC record. Rodriguez (12-3, 5-3 UFC) is a bit above the midpoint line, but he can scarcely afford coming up short as well given that he has dropped two of three. Something’s gotta give, and referee Mike Beltran will be there for it every step of the way. The 145ers touch ‘em up.
Rodriguez says hello with a long one-two, and Fili gets right behind jabbing and low kicks. Rodriguez gets in his face and busts Fili in the chops with a few punches, and a second combination backs Fili off. Fili replies with a crisp right hand over the top, but Rodriguez does not retreat for long and continue to pursue the taller man. Fili uses his range to keep Rodriguez at bay, coming up missing with a head kick and wiping his nose after. Fili keeps his jab going, and he reddens the nose of the younger man and kicks him under the armpit to boot. Rodriguez gets right in Fili’s face and punches him, and Fili changes stances and re-enters the pocket. Both men lob big punches at one another, with Fili clipping “CeeRod” with a few left hands.
Fili gives chase and wings a head kick, and Rodriguez shakes out the cobwebs and re-engages. Fili snaps out his powerful jab, and some damage is showing on Rodriguez’ face on several places. Fili styles on Rodriguez with his jab and short hook, staying out of the range of the biggest power. Fili’s jab is his best weapon, breaking up Rodriguez attacks. Rodriguez catches a body kick and rushes forward to take the vet down, hurling him to the mat like a sack of potatoes with 15 seconds to spare. Rodriguez rides out the remainder of the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili

Round 2
Both fighters get right back to business when the second round kicks off, as Fili opens up with his jab to get going with high kicks. Rodriguez throws back and ducks down to grab hold of a single, and when that fails, he spins with an elbow that goes wide. Rodriguez reaches his man with a head kick, and Fili takes it cleanly without flinching. Rodriguez stomps at the front leg, and when he comes out swinging, Fili is there to chew him up with jabs and calf kicks. Rodriguez sits down on a hard right hand, and his low kick after further gets Fili’s attention. Fili kicks his foe in the front leg, which is welding up and turning colors fast. Rodriguez wades in to brawl, and Fili meets him with his fists until Rodriguez gloms onto him and looks for a body lock.
Fili escapes to reset, and they bang it out for a few seconds, with Rodriguez nodding after taking heavy blows and getting his nose busted open. Rodriguez does land his own power punches, but Fili is more fluid and appears to be putting out a higher volume. Rodriguez swarms forward and misses the mark, allowing Fili to jack him in the jaw with a pair of straight punches. Fili chains a jab into a leg kick that freezes Rodriguez for a second, and “CeeRod” gathers his thoughts and returns to his own leg-based assault. Fili probes and prods with effective jabs, forcing blood to smear on the younger fighter’s visage. Fili clubs Rodriguez with a left hook, and he takes a jab to put two punches on the cheeks. Fili swaps stances and shoots for a takedown, with Rodriguez stonewalling him and kneeing him on the break. Rodriguez goes way wide with a spin, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili

Round 3
The featherweights bump fists and promptly punch one another square in the face. There are no feelers, with the jabs from both sides coming with some fire behind them. Rodriguez takes one or two and decides to tie the Californian up, where he knees him in the thigh several times while controlling him against the wire. Rodriguez lets loose with some punches before Fili strikes back, and the jab from Fili ends the exchange as they both gather steam for a second. Rodriguez leaps at Fili, and Fili lets him land so he can tee off on him with fast fists. Fili times a picture-perfect takedown to scoop “CeeRod” off his feet, putting the younger man down to the floor. Rodriguez scrambles, and Fili gladly hangs onto him from behind while looking for trips. Fili lifts Rodriguez up and slams him down with emphasis, although Rodriguez is still with it after bouncing his melon off the floor. Rodriguez scrambles well, getting to his knees in a hurry, and he spins out to split.
Rodriguez walks Fili down, looping punches at him that set up a head kick. Fili pecks with repetitive, painful jabs, and Rodriguez has no answer to them but tries to counter with a wheel kick that is so far away, Fili could have taken a picture of it on a Polaroid and developed it by the time Rodriguez was good to go again. Rodriguez gets mad, and he starts swinging up close and personal. Fili fires back with a vengeance, only to get clipped with a left hand that changes his course. “Touchy” grabs Rodriguez and bowls him over to the mat, landing some ground-and-pound until Rodriguez explodes to his knees. Fili tries a mat return with Rodriguez leaned up against the wire, and Rodriguez breaks off and just misses a slashing elbow. Fili’s jab is turning Rodriguez’ face to hamburger, and Rodriguez just nods at him looking for more. Rodriguez walks Fili down, briefly clinching only to let go so he can let his hands go. Fili intercepts two spinning moves, with Rodriguez tries to initiate a crazy final brawl but not getting it from the veteran. Fili ends the match by landing some shots, and when the dust settles, Fili plants a kiss on the defeated man’s forehead.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)

The Official Result
Andre Fili def. Christian Rodriguez via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Andre Fili

Angelo leans Andre Fili, believing he is the more skilled fighter with better speed and cleaner striking. He notes Christian Rodriguez is a prospect killer but struggles against experienced, well-rounded fighters. However, Fili is unreliable and his chin is questionable. Angelo may change his pick later in the week.

"I think I'm going to lean Andre here. This is a pick that I might change later in the week."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Christian Rodriguez, noting Andre Fili's recent decline and tendency to get submitted. He highlights Rodriguez's guillotine threat and believes he can snatch a neck if Fili shoots for takedowns. Brady predicts a second-round submission for Rodriguez.

second round submission

"I like Rodriguez here. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Andre Fili

Connor picks Fili because Rodriguez struggles against veterans who don't run into his defensive wall. He notes that Fili will stay at range, use jabs and high kicks, and not get drawn into a wrestling match. Connor points out that Rodriguez has shown an inability to adjust when his plan A fails, as seen against Melquizael Costa. He acknowledges Fili's tendency for catastrophic errors but believes Rodriguez won't capitalize consistently.

Odds mentioned: Rodriguez opened -300, currently -235; Fili opened +250, currently +200.

"I have to pick Andre Fili."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

The host is a big C-rod fan but thinks he is being overappreciated, making him a chalky favorite. He notes a size advantage for Rodriguez fighting at 145 when he should be at 135, which gives some concern, but believes it's a matter of time before Rodriguez finds a submission opportunity and forces the tap.

by submission, odds comment: would be happy to pull the trigger at -180 range

"I think he is the technically superior fighter. It's just a size advantage of Rodriguez constantly fighting at 145 lbs when he should be down at 135. That gives me some cause for concern, but I think it's just a …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Andre Fili

The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili as an underdog, despite acknowledging Christian Rodriguez should win. He believes Fili's size, reach, and veteran savvy will be too much, and that Rodriguez can't finish him. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Fili.

"I'm going with Andre Philly. Crafty vet performance. Little bit too big. Little bit too physical. This is my underdog of the card."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Andre Fili

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Rodriguez's game is built for opponents who make mistakes, but Fili is a veteran who won't just run into his defense. He highlights that Fili's wrestling is tough to out-grapple and that Rodriguez hasn't proven he can beat a veteran like Fili. Zane is concerned about Fili's age and recent wins over older fighters, but still sees Rodriguez as unproven at this level.

Odds mentioned: Rodriguez opened -300, currently -235; Fili opened +250, currently +200.

"I think I'm going to go with you. I want my gut says pick Rodriguez, but it does really feel like his game is not made to beat veterans right now."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Melquizael Costa

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Christian Rodriguez	0	64 of 98	65%	77 of 113	6 of 15	40%	1	1	6:48
Melquizael Costa	0	65 of 105	61%	159 of 208	1 of 2	50%	1	3	4:53

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Christian Rodriguez	11 of 14	78%	12 of 15	1 of 5	20%	1	0	2:07
1	Melquizael Costa	22 of 32	68%	63 of 73	0 of 1	0%	0	1	2:12
2	Christian Rodriguez	19 of 27	70%	24 of 33	1 of 4	25%	0	1	1:42
2	Melquizael Costa	26 of 40	65%	71 of 93	1 of 1	100%	1	1	2:24
3	Christian Rodriguez	34 of 57	59%	41 of 65	4 of 6	66%	0	0	2:59
3	Melquizael Costa	17 of 33	51%	25 of 42	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:17

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Christian Rodriguez	64 of 98	65%	36 of 69	23 of 24	5 of 5	29 of 53	26 of 31	9 of 14
Melquizael Costa	65 of 105	61%	39 of 72	19 of 25	7 of 8	19 of 47	17 of 23	29 of 35

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Christian Rodriguez	11 of 14	78%	3 of 5	8 of 9	0 of 0	2 of 3	9 of 11	0 of 0
1	Melquizael Costa	22 of 32	68%	5 of 11	15 of 19	2 of 2	4 of 9	8 of 12	10 of 11
2	Christian Rodriguez	19 of 27	70%	8 of 16	9 of 9	2 of 2	10 of 18	9 of 9	0 of 0
2	Melquizael Costa	26 of 40	65%	21 of 32	2 of 4	3 of 4	3 of 11	7 of 8	16 of 21
3	Christian Rodriguez	34 of 57	59%	25 of 48	6 of 6	3 of 3	17 of 32	8 of 11	9 of 14
3	Melquizael Costa	17 of 33	51%	13 of 29	2 of 2	2 of 2	12 of 27	2 of 3	3 of 3

Play-by-Play

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Melquizael Costa vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-148), Costa (+124)

Round 1
If the UFC isn’t careful, a fight might break out in the cage with this next one. Having bounced back from his first career stoppage loss well enough, Rodriguez (12-2, 5-2 UFC) is looking to put himself on another win streak. To get that going, he will have to get past the recently renamed “Melk Cauthy” Costa (22-7, 3-2 UFC), a name more in line with Costa’s preference for the knockout—or, nocaute. Fists are bumped before they are traded, as the featherweights are joined in the Octagon by referee Fernando Salas Navarro. Costa pump-fakes several times to get started, setting up a high kick with it that does not get through. His low kicks do trip up Rodriguez, who hits his knees and bounces back up to tie Costa up against the wall. Rodriguez peppers the ribs with knees on either sides, and Costa responds with short punches to the side of the dome when not fighting to keep his balance. A body lock and trip from Rodriguez allows him to get Costa down for a split-second, only to have to settle for pushing Costa against the wire again. They jockey for position against the wire, and Rodriguez sells out to drag Costa down to the floor as they hit the ground together. They spring right back upright while still in the tie-up, with Costa stomping the toes and kneeing the body. Costa softens the side up with several punches, and Rodriguez finally hits the sweep he was looking for and puts Costa down. Costa gets back up as fast as he can, and he keeps his hand on the ground to defend himself from knees to the head. Rodriguez suddenly snatches up a brabo choke and twirls Costa around, and the Brazilian does not panic in the slightest and not only escapes it, but flips Rodriguez over to establish top position. Costa attacks the body with elbows, and when Rodriguez explodes back upright, Costa chases him with a single strike before the horn sounds to end the close round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
Rodriguez is the initial aggressor in the round, taking it to Costa with punches and kicks. Costa pushes off with the ball of his foot, sending Rodriguez down to the mat for a second. Rodriguez jumps back up, elbows Costa in the noggin and initiates the clinch. Costa breaks free and plants a body kick on the side of his foe, and a second comes up short. Rodriguez jabs his way into a right hand, and Costa counters him with a clean right that drops Rodriguez to his knees. Rodriguez regains his footing and clinches heavily, and he fights off a sweep attempt and turns to avoid a slashing elbow when back tied up. They continue to deliver short strikes to one another, and Rodriguez lands his foot sweep and places Costa on his back. Costa returns upright after a second, where he re-engages in a clinch. Rodriguez ducks down for a level change, and Costa knees Rodriguez in the side of the head and hurts him badly. Rodriguez scrambles to try to keep himself in the fight and not taking much more damage, and he lets Costa’s punches rebound off his guard. Costa wraps up an unusual arm-in guillotine choke from the side, partially a bulldog choke, and Rodriguez stays composed and twists out of it. Costa throws Rodriguez to his back, blood streaming down the left eye of “CeeRod,” and he postures up to jack Rodriguez up with elbows and punches. Rodriguez attempts a guillotine off his back to stop Costa from hitting him, but Costa breaks out of it and drops down more strikes including an axe kick to the chest before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
Rodriguez races out of his corner to engage, where he kicks his way into close range and sets up a trip. “CeeRod” hits the sweep—the same one he has been attempting the whole fight—and Costa finds himself on his back playing jiu-jitsu. The Brazilian looks for a kimura in hopes of sweeping, and although he takes a clean elbow on the melon, he turns the tables on Rodriguez and takes his back standing. They continue to roll and twist, and Rodriguez keeps Costa tied up and bullies him to the fencing. Rodriguez uses his elbows to fluster Costa from up close when not looking for another sweep, and he takes Costa off his feet for a moment. Costa climbs back up, elbows his foe in the chin and frames off to take a breath. Rodriguez is quick to impose his weight on him, and he trips Costa up again for good measure. Costa stands and avoids an elbow that soars at him, and he gets pulled back to the floor. Rodriguez tries to take his back, and he slides off. “CeeRod” races back to his feet and rails Costa with a right hand, stunning him for a moment and giving him openings to find more punches and a step-in knee. Costa pushes off with a front kick, and Rodriguez shrugs at him. Costa knees him again, but not before getting clipped with a barrage of punches. Costa whiffs on a two-punch flurry and hits his back from an easy foot sweep from Rodriguez. Rodriguez sits up in the guard and drops down hammers, with Costa faded just enough to not offer resistance to force a standup. Rodriguez rains down a bombardment of hammerfists, including one raised from the ceiling all the way to the floor, and the crowd is loving it. Rodriguez keeps hammering away, and Costa survives to make it the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Costa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Christian Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Connor picks Rodriguez, noting his excellent wrestling and grappling defense against powerful wrestlers. He thinks Costa's structureless, erratic style will play into Rodriguez's hands, allowing him to show offensive wrestling. However, he cautions that Rodriguez can be too defensive on the feet, as seen against Julian Erosa.

"I'm definitely going to pick him. But I think it stands to be a little bit of a lumpier kind of fight."

MMA Vivisection

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez, emphasizing that he is a much better fighter than Costa. He notes that Rodriguez has feasted on raw fighters who expect to blow him out, and Costa's experience and guillotine threat are concerns but not enough to change the pick. Zane thinks Rodriguez deserves to be a bigger favorite.

"I'm definitely gotta pick him. He's just a much better fighter than Costa."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Austin Bashi

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Christian Rodriguez	0	44 of 82	53%	55 of 93	2 of 4	50%	2	2	3:20
Austin Bashi	0	23 of 50	46%	32 of 60	3 of 18	16%	0	0	5:41

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Christian Rodriguez	7 of 18	38%	9 of 20	1 of 2	50%	2	1	1:14
1	Austin Bashi	8 of 13	61%	11 of 16	1 of 6	16%	0	0	2:16
2	Christian Rodriguez	14 of 18	77%	19 of 23	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:24
2	Austin Bashi	5 of 15	33%	11 of 22	2 of 7	28%	0	0	2:44
3	Christian Rodriguez	23 of 46	50%	27 of 50	1 of 2	50%	0	0	1:42
3	Austin Bashi	10 of 22	45%	10 of 22	0 of 5	0%	0	0	0:41

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Christian Rodriguez	44 of 82	53%	32 of 68	12 of 14	0 of 0	32 of 66	8 of 12	4 of 4
Austin Bashi	23 of 50	46%	12 of 34	9 of 11	2 of 5	17 of 43	5 of 6	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Christian Rodriguez	7 of 18	38%	5 of 16	2 of 2	0 of 0	3 of 14	4 of 4	0 of 0
1	Austin Bashi	8 of 13	61%	3 of 7	3 of 4	2 of 2	5 of 10	3 of 3	0 of 0
2	Christian Rodriguez	14 of 18	77%	13 of 16	1 of 2	0 of 0	11 of 15	1 of 1	2 of 2
2	Austin Bashi	5 of 15	33%	2 of 10	3 of 3	0 of 2	4 of 13	1 of 2	0 of 0
3	Christian Rodriguez	23 of 46	50%	14 of 36	9 of 10	0 of 0	18 of 37	3 of 7	2 of 2
3	Austin Bashi	10 of 22	45%	7 of 17	3 of 4	0 of 1	8 of 20	1 of 1	1 of 1

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Austin Bashi vs. Christian Rodriguez

Round 1
In three of his last four outings, Rodriguez (11-2, 4-2 UFC) has donned his prospect-killer hat while staving off an undefeated opponent. This comes to a head once more for “CeeRod,” as this time he battles Michigan-based up-and-comer Bashi (13-0, 0-0 UFC) in hopes of spoiling one more flawless record. Whether he succeeds or fails, referee Chris Tognoni will be on top of things from start to finish. There is a sporting glove touch to commence the featherweight scrap, and Rodriguez nails the newcomer with a right hand and a flying knee. Bashi takes them on the chin and attempts a takedown, only to be easily stuffed by the underdog. Bashi pushes Rodriguez up against the fence and goes all-in for a takedown, as Rodriguez sets him down in 50-50 position. Rodriguez snatches hold of a power guillotine choke, turning Bashi to the side and wrenching him to the floor. Bashi, still in submission danger, works his way up to his feet, and he wriggles out of the choke and backs Rodriguez off with strikes. Rodriguez feints with loud stomps, drawing reactions out of the newcomer every time. A head kick from Rodriguez gets up quick, and he changes levels to ground Bashi. Rodriguez waits to line up a legal knee when Bashi stands, planting one on the torso and retreating. Bashi follows him, considers a takedown and elects to leap on Rodriguez’ back standing up. Rodriguez controls Bashi’s right arm with both hands, looking to shake Bashi off of him. When he does not fall off, Bashi resets and hooks a triangle around Rodriguez’ hips. Rodriguez fights the leg grip and does not let Bashi get a choke in, and he forces Bashi to release him. Rodriguez pushes back to get enough space to strike, and he follows a strafing Bashi and flusters him with a stomp on the mat before spurring into action. Bashi clings to “CeeRod” where he elevates and dumps Rodriguez to the ground. Rodriguez sweeps him with relative ease, but he does not establish top control as he wishes to engage on the feet. Bashi ties him up with the clinch and pushes him to the wire, but it is Rodriguez who takes advantage of the close proximity with a spinning back elbow. Bashi tags him back with a right hand before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
A calm Rodriguez meanders out of his corner to commence the round, and he skillfully tags Bashi from afar without letting the relative neophyte score much back. Bashi dives in deep for a single and succeeds in putting Rodriguez on his seat, only for Rodriguez to get back up before one second elapses. Bashi goes for a double and scoops Rodriguez off the ground to put him down, and this time, he lowers himself into top position. Rodriguez elbows his man off his back while scrambling, and this allows Bashi to take his back and wrap his legs around the waist again. Rodriguez grips the ankle to turn Bashi about, and he uses elbows to further break the leg grip. Rodriguez peels his foe off of him and knees him in the belly, and he takes an elbow on the break. Rodriguez peppers out a jab and evades a swinging right hand, preparing himself for a takedown that inevitably comes. An irritated Rodriguez falls to his back, and Bashi quickly advances to three-quarter mount so he can hop to the side instead of full mount. Bashi works the body with knees all while maintaining heavy chest pressure, and Rodriguez still turns him around and thwarts a submission setup. Rodriguez pushes Bashi over and nearly sneaks into mount, and he pushes off the back of the neck to stand. Bashi tries to follow him with a spinning back elbow, and he is met with a knee on the jaw. Rodriguez cracks the newcomer with an uppercut and a right hand, and Bashi takes a breath and shoots. Rodriguez sprawls to keep himself upright, turning the corner to put Bashi on his knees. Bashi reasserts going for his takedown attempt, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bashi
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bashi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bashi

Round 3
In three of his last four outings, Rodriguez (11-2, 4-2 UFC) has donned his prospect-killer hat while staving off an undefeated opponent. This comes to a head once more for “CeeRod,” as this time he battles Michigan-based up-and-comer Bashi (13-0, 0-0 UFC) in hopes of spoiling one more flawless record. Whether he succeeds or fails, referee Chris Tognoni will be on top of things from start to finish. There is a sporting glove touch to commence the featherweight scrap, and Rodriguez nails the newcomer with a right hand and a flying knee. Bashi takes them on the chin and attempts a takedown, only to be easily stuffed by the underdog. Bashi pushes Rodriguez up against the fence and goes all-in for a takedown, as Rodriguez sets him down in 50-50 position. Rodriguez snatches hold of a power guillotine choke, turning Bashi to the side and wrenching him to the floor. Bashi, still in submission danger, works his way up to his feet, and he wriggles out of the choke and backs Rodriguez off with strikes. Rodriguez feints with loud stomps, drawing reactions out of the newcomer every time. A head kick from Rodriguez gets up quick, and he changes levels to ground Bashi. Rodriguez waits to line up a legal knee when Bashi stands, planting one on the torso and retreating. Bashi follows him, considers a takedown and elects to leap on Rodriguez’ back standing up. Rodriguez controls Bashi’s right arm with both hands, looking to shake Bashi off of him. When he does not fall off, Bashi resets and hooks a triangle around Rodriguez’ hips. Rodriguez fights the leg grip and does not let Bashi get a choke in, and he forces Bashi to release him. Rodriguez pushes back to get enough space to strike, and he follows a strafing Bashi and flusters him with a stomp on the mat before spurring into action. Bashi clings to “CeeRod” where he elevates and dumps Rodriguez to the ground. Rodriguez sweeps him with relative ease, but he does not establish top control as he wishes to engage on the feet. Bashi ties him up with the clinch and pushes him to the wire, but it is Rodriguez who takes advantage of the close proximity with a spinning back elbow. Bashi tags him back with a right hand before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Christian Rodriguez def. Austin Bashi via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Austin Bashi

Angelo picks Austin Bashi, believing he is a better prospect than those Christian Rodriguez has beaten before. He notes Bashi's well-rounded skills, particularly his grappling and improved striking. He thinks Bashi's wrestling and cardio will be too much for Rodriguez, who has been submitted before. He considers Bashi safe to bet on despite being a UFC debutant.

"I think Austin bashy is better than those other guys because of the Striking first of all ... Austin bashley should win this fight and I think he gets it done and I actually think he's safe to bet on …"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Austin Bashi

Big Brady is extremely high on Bashi, calling him the number one prospect from contender series. He notes Bashi is well-rounded, has great cardio, and can wrestle for 15 minutes, unlike previous undefeated prospects who gassed against Rodriguez. He acknowledges Rodriguez has beaten undefeated prospects before, but believes Bashi's cardio and durability will be the difference. He predicts Bashi wins by decision in a close fight.

"I'm going to go Bashi here I'm going to take Bashi to probably win this fight by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Austin Bashi

Cody picks Bashi despite the high price, believing his wrestling and youth will overwhelm Rodriguez. He notes Rodriguez's poor takedown defense and weight misses at 135. He expects Bashi to secure takedowns and win two of three rounds.

"for my personal take he's the pick I got Austin bosy to pick up his first UFC win"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Connor picks Rodriguez because of his experience and craft, despite being physically outmatched. Rodriguez is an excellent scrambler, patient, and persistent, and he has shown he can outlast stronger opponents like Dulgarian. Bashi is a great prospect, but this is a tough stylistic matchup for him. Connor notes that Rodriguez's boxing and positional grappling are high-level, and he believes Rodriguez's determination and fight IQ will carry him through.

"I just think I'm going to go with Rodriguez."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Austin Bashi

Daniel thinks Rodriguez is in the wrong weight class (too small for featherweight) and has had issues with grapplers who gas, but Bashi has endless cardio and strong grappling. He predicts Bashi will have grappling success and win a decision, similar to Rodriguez's previous fights but without the gas issue. He notes the odds have moved from -190 to -270, making it a pass for betting.

pass on betting due to odds movement

"I'm going to just tell you I'm picking Austin bashy here but minus 270 is trash"

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Lucrative James leans toward Christian Rodriguez at plus 250, citing Rodriguez's proven track record against undefeated prospects. He believes Rodriguez is the better striker and has improved his anti-wrestling. He notes that Bashi is a strong grappler but making his UFC debut, which often leads to underperformance. He also mentions that Rodriguez is not a natural featherweight, which is a concern. He hasn't fully decided on a bet yet but sees value.

"I think Cod is the better striker in this matchup right I think if the fight is on the feet cod's going to win and he definitely won't look plus 250"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Rodriguez is a good scrambler and defensive grappler who can cause Bashi trouble in establishing dominant positions. He can then get the fight to striking, where he is the cleaner and superior striker, landing more damage and winning on the scorecards.

"I believe Rodriguez is a good enough Scrambler and good enough defensive Grappler that he should be able to cause bashy trouble in terms of trying to establish a dominant position and from there Rodriguez should be able to get …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Paul leans toward Rodriguez as a dog, questioning Bashi's readiness despite his potential. He notes Rodriguez's experience against prospects and Bashi's greenness. He suggests live betting Bashi after round one if he comes out hot.

live bet on Bashi after round 1

"another dogger pass situation here for me"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Austin Bashi

The Guru picks Bashi, impressed by his wrestling and experience. He notes Bashi's undefeated record (13-0) and better competition compared to Rodriguez's loss to Julian Erosa. He thinks Bashi's standup is better than R. Rosas Jr.'s and predicts a 29-28 decision, with Rodriguez having a good third round but not enough. He warns that Bashi sometimes fails to capitalize on takedowns and is open on the feet.

29-28 decision

"I'm going to side with him to win this fight and I think he'll get it done I don't think he'll get a finish though"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Austin Bashi

Zane picks Bashi despite acknowledging it's the wrong matchup for him. He believes Bashi's athletic upside, endless motor, and physicality will allow him to get early advantages and maintain them. Bashi is stronger and better put together than fighters like Raul Rosas, and he doesn't gas out like Dulgarian. Zane thinks Bashi's superior athleticism and cardio will be the difference, even if Rodriguez is more experienced.

"I am actually going to pick Bashi here."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Julian Erosa

Submission (guillotine choke) R1 4:49 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Julian Erosa	0	35 of 88	39%	39 of 94	1 of 1	100%	1	0	0:41
Christian Rodriguez	0	33 of 75	44%	33 of 76	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:19

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Julian Erosa	0	35 of 88	39%	39 of 94	1 of 1	100%	1	0	0:41
1	Christian Rodriguez	0	33 of 75	44%	33 of 76	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:19

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Julian Erosa	35 of 88	39%	27 of 73	7 of 13	1 of 2	33 of 84	2 of 4	0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez	33 of 75	44%	26 of 67	2 of 2	5 of 6	31 of 73	0 of 0	2 of 2

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Julian Erosa	35 of 88	39%	27 of 73	7 of 13	1 of 2	33 of 84	2 of 4	0 of 0
1	Christian Rodriguez	33 of 75	44%	26 of 67	2 of 2	5 of 6	31 of 73	0 of 0	2 of 2

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Julian Erosa vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-205), Erosa (+170)

Round 1
Always willing to either add to his highlight reel or be a part of someone else’s, Erosa (29-11, 7-7 UFC) and his .500 record come to a head with Roufusport’s Rodriguez (11-1, 4-1 UFC). While “CeeRod” holds four wins on the scorecards, three of those have come in his last three outings. On the other hand, the last three walks to the cage for Erosa have ended in the first round. Whether it takes three minute or three rounds to get to a result, referee Nick Berens will be here for it from start to finish. The featherweights bump fists, and Erosa uses a front kick to keep Rodriguez away. Rodriguez passes right past it and puts his hands on Erosa’s face. Erosa is reddened up in a hurry from the quick punches from Rodriguez, and he answers with a pair of looping uppercuts. Erosa flicks out his jab, and Rodriguez dips down and smashes him in the face with a head kick. As they trade, Rodriguez’ mouthpiece goes flying, and Erosa sees it and decides it is time to brawl. They slug it out fast and furiously until Berens finds a moment to replace the gumshield, and they get right back to it. Erosa goads Rodriguez on, and he clips “CeeRod” with a right hand in the midst of a speedy combination. They both connect with powerful blows, and Erosa gets off a strong front kick. Rodriguez kicks his man upside the head, and Erosa tells him to bring it on. Rodriguez does just that. Erosa manages to get Rodriguez to take a step back with his own counters, and his front kick to the chest and face are able to keep the hard-charging Rodriguez relatively at bay. Rodriguez settles down and tosses out a low kick, and Erosa wags his finger at him and rings his bell an elbow. Erosa walks his man down and pounds him in the face with his fists, and Rodriguez responds with a flurry ending with a right hand that staggers Erosa back. Erosa gathers his thoughts and marches forward, a cut opened on the bridge of his nose, and he lets go with a head kick that is blocked. Another elbow from Erosa comes up short, and he catches a kick and bowls and trips Rodriguez to the mat. Erosa scrambles to take Rodriguez’ back and set up a body triangle, and he is quick to consider an armbar instead of going after the neck like usual. Rodriguez defends the possible submission and turns to his knees, and he manages to flip Erosa over. Erosa’s upkicks do not keep Rodriguez off of him, as Rodriguez leaps at him and punches him hard.
Erosa ignores them and grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and it is suddenly and surprisingly tight. Erosa tightens his legs around the waist of his foe and turns to the side, and falls to his back to complete the submission. Rodriguez tries to tough it out, but he is forced to surrender with seconds left on the clock.
Erosa sits up and shoves Rodriguez off of him when Berens intervenes, springing yet another upset and adding one more impressive stoppage to his ledger. The victorious "Juicy J" becomes the first fighter to finish Rodriguez as a professional.

The Official Result
Julian Erosa def. Christian Rodriguez R1 4:49 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Angelo picks Christian Rodriguez but with caution, noting that Rodriguez has been gifted decisions and has never faced a veteran as experienced as Julian Erosa. He acknowledges Rodriguez's slick striking and composure but points out his lack of finishing ability and the fact that Erosa is much larger and more experienced. Angelo warns that the odds seem wide for a fighter who lost to the last tough veteran he faced.

"I do think Christian Rodriguez wins this fight but the odds seem wide two to one favorite 3 to one favorite that seems wide"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez, highlighting his youth, cardio, and striking advantage. He notes Erosa's history of getting knocked out and believes Rodriguez will overwhelm him with volume and power. He expects a finish, possibly in the first or second round.

"Rodriguez just crushes him like first round knockout."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Daniel Vreeland picks Christian Rodriguez to win, predicting his first UFC knockout. He notes that Rodriguez has handed prospects their first losses and that Erosa's chin is a massive liability. He advises Rodriguez to headhunt rather than engage in a technical battle. He believes Rodriguez will pass the Erosa test.

by KO

"I'm gonna go Christian Rodriguez here to get it done and continue the big win streak."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Christian Rodriguez is the slicker striker and one of the best prospects on the roster. Despite a height and reach disadvantage, he will crash the pocket, land combinations, and eventually drop Erosa, leading to a knockout or a club-and-sub opportunity.

"I think Rodriguez is one of the best if not the best prospect on the roster right now and I think you'll showcase it once again by picking up the biggest win of his UFC career"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Paul picks Rodriguez, citing his superior cardio and durability. He notes Erosa's knockout losses and believes Rodriguez's pressure will be too much. He acknowledges Erosa's length but thinks Rodriguez's pace will win the fight.

"I'll be going with Christian Rodriguez as well."

Bookie Beatdown

WIN vs Isaac Dulgarian

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Mar 16, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Christian Rodriguez	0	48 of 76	63%	97 of 135	0 of 0	---	0	0	3:19
Isaac Dulgarian	0	22 of 44	50%	56 of 89	7 of 16	43%	2	0	9:22

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Christian Rodriguez	1 of 3	33%	5 of 7	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
1	Isaac Dulgarian	9 of 11	81%	36 of 49	3 of 3	100%	2	4:48
2	Christian Rodriguez	12 of 15	80%	18 of 22	0 of 0	---	0	0:05
2	Isaac Dulgarian	8 of 11	72%	15 of 18	4 of 6	66%	0	4:11
3	Christian Rodriguez	35 of 58	60%	74 of 106	0 of 0	---	0	3:14
3	Isaac Dulgarian	5 of 22	22%	5 of 22	0 of 7	0%	0	0:23

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Christian Rodriguez	48 of 76	63%	43 of 71	4 of 4	1 of 1	21 of 40	10 of 10	17 of 26
Isaac Dulgarian	22 of 44	50%	17 of 39	2 of 2	3 of 3	14 of 34	1 of 1	7 of 9

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Christian Rodriguez	1 of 3	33%	1 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Isaac Dulgarian	9 of 11	81%	7 of 9	1 of 1	1 of 1	2 of 2	0 of 0	7 of 9
2	Christian Rodriguez	12 of 15	80%	9 of 12	3 of 3	0 of 0	6 of 9	5 of 5	1 of 1
2	Isaac Dulgarian	8 of 11	72%	5 of 8	1 of 1	2 of 2	7 of 10	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Christian Rodriguez	35 of 58	60%	33 of 56	1 of 1	1 of 1	14 of 28	5 of 5	16 of 25
3	Isaac Dulgarian	5 of 22	22%	5 of 22	0 of 0	0 of 0	5 of 22	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Isaac Dulgarian vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dulgarian (-192), Rodriguez (+160)

Round 1
Finding himself on a bit of a win streak, Rodriguez (10-1, 3-1 UFC) moves up to featherweight after some issues making weight in the past. He will attempt to become the first man to beat ferocious finisher Dulgarian (6-0, 1-0 UFC), who has yet to fight beyond the five-minute mark as a pro. The fast and furious action will be overseen by referee Chris Tognoni, who sharply exhales when the two men touch gloves to engage. Dulgarian flashes out a low kick, and when Rodriguez throws back, he charges like a bull to take the fight down. “The Midwest Choppa” succeeds in putting Rodriguez on his back on the first effort, and he postures up well to smash down with punches and elbows. Dulgarian sits down with a potential guillotine choke setup, and he lets go of it to lower himself down to go after an arm-triangle choke. When Rodriguez scrambles, Dulgarian drops down for an unusual Peruvian Necktie choke with his arm grip beneath his legs. Rodriguez turns through it, and he finds himself in a much deeper Peruvian Necktie. He grits it out, and he turns to put himself flat on his back as Dulgarian resides on top of him in half guard. Dulgarian continues moving until Rodriguez turns over, and he beats Rodriguez every step of the way with movement or strikes. Rodriguez stands back up, and Dulgarian drags him down immediately. Dulgarian clings on from behind, shutting down Rodriguez’ return to his feet. Rodriguez miraculously scrambles to get out of a precarious position, and he works his way back up. The doggedly persistent Dulgarian wrenches his foe down to the mat, and he lands in half guard where he sets up an arm-triangle choke. Rodriguez breaks the choke up, so Dulgarian lays into him with elbows that split his eyebrow open. Rodriguez turns to his stomach, and Dulgarian slams him in the side of the head with hammerfists. Rodriguez flips back over, and Dulgarian laces up an arm-in arm-triangle choke. When he feels the submission is not as tight as he wants it, he lets it go. Rodriguez scrambles to get to his knees, and Dulgarian hops on his back and chucks him down to the floor. Dulgarian softens him up from the sides with punches until Rodriguez stands up by leaning on the wall. Dulgarian reaches his career long professional fight as he completes the first round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Dulgarian
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Dulgarian
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Dulgarian

Round 2
The featherweights race out of their corners, and Rodriguez introduces himself with a jump knee that lands on the forehead. Rodriguez snatches up the neck while Dulgarian is surprised, and he jumps guard with a guillotine choke. Dulgarian wriggles his neck free, and he goes back to imposing his wrestling. Dulgarian manages to get control from behind, and Rodriguez turns around to nearly get top position before Dulgarian explodes to his feet. Dulgarian trips Rodriguez up to set him down to his knees, and when Rodriguez stands, he secures an almost immediate mat return. Rodriguez hits his seat and winces, and Dulgarian keeps himself very low to keep Rodriguez grounded. Dulgarian slings him back down to the canvas, where he tries to get back control before Rodriguez posts off his arms to stand up. Dulgarian pressures from behind when Rodriguez walks towards and leans on the cage wall. Rodriguez turns around to put his back to the fence, and he lifts up a knee to the body. Rodriguez lifts up a knee that smacks into Dulgarian’s chin, and Dulgarian thanks him by hurling him to the ground. Dulgarian immediately takes the back, hanging on from an opposite side before Rodriguez works his way upright. Rodriguez manages to get a little breathing room, and he reaches out with punches and an elbow. Dulgarian jabs the body and kicks his foe out, and Rodriguez responds with a short shot that might have stung Dulgarian. Dulgarian goes back to his wrestling, tripping Rodriguez to a knee and leaning on him against the fencing. Tognoni asks for them to stay busy when they stall out, and the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dulgarian
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dulgarian
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dulgarian

Round 3
Beginning the last round, the pace and intensity of Dulgarian has dialed down a little. Rodriguez lands a few strikes from up close, and he succeeds in staving off two attempts. Dulgarian charges to go after a low ankle pick, and Rodriguez stands up and blasts Dulgarian in the side with a soccer kick. Dulgarian is on his knees, perhaps out of gas, and Rodriguez jumps on his back and easily gets both hooks in. Rodriguez flattens the undefeated fighter out and starts pounding on him from both sides of the head. Dulgarian turns to his back, and Rodriguez welcomes this so he can sit up and start pummeling him. Rodriguez follows his foe while spinning to his stomach, landing pitter-patter shots but not the damaging kind that will like force a stoppage. Rodriguez pops Dulgarian on the side of the head, and when Dulgarian sits up, he grabs hold of a rear-naked choke. Dulgarian survives by grabbing his foe’s gloves, and Rodriguez uses his free arm to land shots on the side of the head. Dulgarian controls one wrist, and he turns around and scoots himself to the fence. Dulgarian finds his way back to his feet with 90 seconds to go, and he is a spent force but still manages to get off a power overhand right. Rodriguez connects with a low kick and walks Dulgarian down, blasting him with a straight right hand to follow. Dulgarian eats a right hand and shoots, and “CeeRod” stops it in its tracks and stands. Rodrigeuz leaps forward with left hands until Dulgarian shoots for a double, and the Rodriguez stuff leads to him searching for a brabo choke. Dulgarian gets hold of a leg and tries to lift Rodriguez up one final time, and Rodriguez elbows him in the side of the head until the horn blares. The scores could go all over the map here, depending on how many 10-8 tallies are awarded.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Rodriguez (28-27 Dulgarian)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Rodriguez (28-27 Dulgarian)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Rodriguez (28-27 Dulgarian)

The Official Result
Christian Rodriguez def. Isaac Dulgarian via Split Decision (28-27, 27-28, 28-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Isaac Dulgarian

Angelo is surprised Rodriguez is an underdog but thinks Dulgarian is a legit prospect with real wrestling and good striking. He compares it to Rodriguez's win over Raul Rosas Jr., noting that Rosas mauled Rodriguez in the first round before gassing. He believes Dulgarian has better cardio and fight IQ, and will get the job done. He sees this as a true test of Dulgarian's potential.

"I am going to pick Isaac dgeren here I do think he's the real deal and we're about to find out for sure because Christian Rodriguez is the perfect Prospect killer"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Isaac Dulgarian

Big Brady picks Isaac Dulgarian to win by first-round TKO. He is impressed by Dulgarian's wrestling and ground-and-pound, and thinks he can take Rodriguez down and finish him early. He notes Rodriguez's takedown defense is not elite and Dulgarian's pace may be too much.

by first round TKO

"I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round TKO"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Isaac Dulgarian

Cody picks Isaac Dulgarian, despite Rodriguez being a legitimate prospect. He highlights Dulgarian's elite wrestling pedigree (D2 champion, three-time state champ in all styles) and his first-round finishing streak. He notes Rodriguez has missed weight twice and is moving up to 145, which could be a disadvantage against a strong wrestler. He believes Dulgarian's pace and wrestling will be too much.

under 2.5 rounds (-105)

"I like Dulgarian... wrestling pedigree, obviously more accustomed to this weight class."

Bookie Beatdown

Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Lucrative James picks Christian Rodriguez despite acknowledging Dulgarian's early-round dominance and wrestling advantage. He believes Rodriguez will lose round one but come back in rounds two and three due to better cardio, scrambling ability, and superior striking. He also thinks Rodriguez has submission opportunities and trusts him to weather the storm, as he has beaten hyped prospects before.

Rodriguez by decision

"I'm actually gonna come out and pick CR Rod here."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

The host considers Rodriguez one of the better prospects but notes he struggled to make 135 lbs and is now fighting at 145 lbs. He expects Rodriguez to give up some takedowns early but provide the most resistance Dulgarian has faced, allowing Rodriguez to work back to his feet and use his superior striking. As Dulgarian slows down, Rodriguez will clamp onto a submission after a poor takedown attempt.

submission

"I think we'll see doarian start to slow down later on in this matchup allowing Rodriguez to eventually clamp onto a submission"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Isaac Dulgarian

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Dulgarian trains at altitude in Colorado, which should improve his cardio. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down and outmuscled early in fights, and Dulgarian is not the kind of opponent you want to face when moving up. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

under 2.5 rounds (-105)

"I'm with with with you on Dulgarian but under two and a half looks spicy to me."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Isaac Dulgarian

The Guru picks Isaac Dulgarian, emphasizing his NCAA Division 2 wrestling credentials and physicality. He criticizes Rodriguez for missing weight multiple times and having size advantages over past opponents. He believes Dulgarian's wrestling will be a level above Rodriguez's previous opponents, and that he will dominate with takedowns and ground control. He notes Rodriguez has good survivability but doubts he can overcome Dulgarian's pressure.

"I am G to go with Isaac dgeren for many reasons... I think he's going to have too much of an advantage in the physicality and the wrestling credentials."

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Cameron Saaiman

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Christian Rodriguez	0	83 of 161	51%	92 of 173	3 of 6	50%	2	1	3:12
Cameron Saaiman	0	73 of 175	41%	87 of 192	0 of 5	0%	1	0	1:26

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Christian Rodriguez	22 of 50	44%	22 of 50	1 of 4	25%	1	0	0:36
1	Cameron Saaiman	27 of 69	39%	32 of 74	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:16
2	Christian Rodriguez	19 of 27	70%	28 of 39	1 of 1	100%	1	1	2:25
2	Cameron Saaiman	8 of 19	42%	16 of 29	0 of 2	0%	1	0	1:04
3	Christian Rodriguez	42 of 84	50%	42 of 84	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:11
3	Cameron Saaiman	38 of 87	43%	39 of 89	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:06

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Christian Rodriguez	83 of 161	51%	64 of 141	18 of 19	1 of 1	63 of 131	13 of 21	7 of 9
Cameron Saaiman	73 of 175	41%	38 of 121	14 of 21	21 of 33	65 of 160	8 of 15	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Christian Rodriguez	22 of 50	44%	14 of 42	8 of 8	0 of 0	19 of 44	3 of 6	0 of 0
1	Cameron Saaiman	27 of 69	39%	12 of 44	7 of 9	8 of 16	23 of 61	4 of 8	0 of 0
2	Christian Rodriguez	19 of 27	70%	17 of 25	2 of 2	0 of 0	9 of 15	3 of 3	7 of 9
2	Cameron Saaiman	8 of 19	42%	4 of 12	1 of 2	3 of 5	8 of 19	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Christian Rodriguez	42 of 84	50%	33 of 74	8 of 9	1 of 1	35 of 72	7 of 12	0 of 0
3	Cameron Saaiman	38 of 87	43%	22 of 65	6 of 10	10 of 12	34 of 80	4 of 7	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Christian Rodriguez (140: Missed Weight) vs. Cameron Saaiman
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-142), Saaiman (+120)

Round 1
A catchweight appetizer gets the blood pumping on the main card, as Saaiman (9-0, 3-0 UFC) puts his undefeated record on the line against Rodriguez (9-1, 2-1 UFC) at 140 pounds. Rodriguez missed weight by a whopping four pounds and was fined a percentage of his purse. Smith serves as the referee. No glove touch. Rodriguez presses forward and clips Saaiman with a right hand. Saaiman eats a knee, and Rodriguez flurries with punches. Rodriguez connects with a spinning backfist, ducks return fire and secures a takedown. He threatens with an anaconda choke, but Saaiman escapes. They return to their feet. Saaiman finds the mark with a body kick, but he is losing the striking battle at this point. Rodriguez follows a knee to the body with an elbow upstairs. Rodriguez lands another collar-tie knee. Saaiman probes forward with his jab, but the output is not where it needs to be yet. Rodriguez bleeding from a cut near his left eye. Saaiman pieces together a combination, started by his jab. Saaiman misfires on two spinning attacks. He shoots on a takedown in the closing seconds but goes nowhere.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez

Round 2
Saaiman delivers an inside leg kicks, then throws a left hook upstairs. Rodriguez commands the center of the cage. Saaiman slams another kick into the Roufusport rep’s tight. Rodriguez narrowly misses a knee and shuts down an attempted takedown. He sprawls on a follow-up takedown, makes another pass at an anaconda choke but surrenders top position. Saaiman sets up in full guard and scrambles to the back. Rodriguez springs a reversal, climbs to the back and secures his position with a body triangle. Punches follow. Saaiman scrambles free, moves to the back and slides off. This has turned into a scramblefest. Rodriguez slips behind Saaiman and settles in a kneeling position before threading the needle with punches. Saaiman rolls into a heel hook, but Rodriguez defends without issue and wheels behind him. They finish on the feet.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez

Round 3
Rodriguez paws with his jab from the center of the cage. Saaiman lands a low kick, then eats a left hook to the body. Saaiman clinches but releases Rodriguez into open space. A jab from Rodriguez buckles Saaiman’s knees. Saaiman backs him up with punches, connects with an uppercut and clangs a wild overhand left off the side of his head. Rodriguez lands an elbow in close quarters, circles on the outside and steps back into the pocket. Saaiman lets his hands go and throws in an inside leg kick. Rodriguez connects with a one-two. Rodriguez tosses the unbeaten prospect to the mat but allows him to get back to his feet. Saaiman circles on the outside, connects with another leg kick, eats a knee up the middle and answers with punches. He closes with a one-two and a spinning back kick to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Saaiman (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Saaiman (29-28 Rodriguez)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Saaiman (29-28 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Christian Rodriguez def. Cameron Saaiman—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Cameron Saaiman

Angelo picks Cameron Saaiman as an underdog, believing Christian Rodriguez is overvalued after beating a 'high school kid' (Raul Rosas Jr.) who gassed. He thinks Saaiman's technical striking and potential wrestling could be key, but he's not sure if Saaiman will commit to wrestling. He plans to bet on Saaiman if the line moves favorably, possibly taking plus 3.5 rounds.

Considering plus 3.5 rounds bet on Saaiman

"I'm going to go ahead I am going to pick Cameron here uh low confidence type pick"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cameron Saaiman

Big Brady picks Cameron Saaiman by close decision. He likes Saaiman's higher volume striking and cardio, and thinks his grappling is competitive. He sees it as a well-matched fight but leans Saaiman slightly due to his higher ceiling. He will not bet this fight.

"I'm going to take Cameron Simon to win this fight I just feel like I'm higher as a whole on Cameron Simon"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez, highlighting his proven track record against prospects (beating Joshua Weems, competitive with Jonathan Pearce). He notes Rodriguez's excellent cardio, solid striking, and ability to escape bad positions. Cody contrasts Saaiman's rawness and tendency to get taken down, and believes Rodriguez's high fight IQ and grappling will be the difference.

"Sign me up for Christian Rodriguez"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

The host picks Christian Rodriguez confidently, citing his technical advantages in striking, grappling, and Jiu-Jitsu. He notes Rodriguez's clean combinations and discipline, and expects him to exploit Saaiman's technical flaws. He predicts a decision win for Rodriguez.

"give me Rodriguez and I'm going to take Rodriguez by decision"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Cody, pointing to Saaiman's struggles against wrestlers (e.g., losing to Cody Stamann via takedowns). He notes that Rodriguez is more complete at this stage and has shown he can bully opponents on the ground. Paul expects Rodriguez to mix in takedowns and control the fight.

"I got Christian Rodriguez as the guy who's maybe just a little bit more ready right now"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Cameron Saaiman

The MMA Guru picks Cameron Saaiman as an underdog over Christian Rodriguez. He believes Saaiman is better on the feet, more dynamic and versatile, with higher finishing potential. In grappling, he thinks Saaiman is more vicious with ground and pound, while Rodriguez is more positional. He also notes Saaiman is younger, taller, and more active, having taken no damage in his last fight.

"I'm going to go with Cameron Simon on the grappling department and on the feet I think he's way better than chrisan Rodriguez"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Raul Rosas Jr.

Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Christian Rodriguez	0	2 of 19	10%	2 of 19	3 of 16	18%	1	0	4:50
Raul Rosas Jr.	0	29 of 52	55%	83 of 115	1 of 1	100%	0	0	7:30

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Christian Rodriguez	0 of 0	---	0 of 0	3 of 8	37%	1	4:02
1	Raul Rosas Jr.	2 of 6	33%	9 of 14	0 of 0	---	0	0:34
2	Christian Rodriguez	0 of 4	0%	0 of 4	0 of 5	0%	0	0:48
2	Raul Rosas Jr.	4 of 6	66%	24 of 32	0 of 0	---	0	3:37
3	Christian Rodriguez	2 of 15	13%	2 of 15	0 of 3	0%	0	0:00
3	Raul Rosas Jr.	23 of 40	57%	50 of 69	1 of 1	100%	0	3:19

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Christian Rodriguez	2 of 19	10%	2 of 15	0 of 1	0 of 3	2 of 19	0 of 0	0 of 0
Raul Rosas Jr.	29 of 52	55%	26 of 47	3 of 5	0 of 0	4 of 18	4 of 7	21 of 27

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Christian Rodriguez	0 of 0	---	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Raul Rosas Jr.	2 of 6	33%	1 of 3	1 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 5	0 of 1
2	Christian Rodriguez	0 of 4	0%	0 of 3	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Raul Rosas Jr.	4 of 6	66%	2 of 4	2 of 2	0 of 0	1 of 3	2 of 2	1 of 1
3	Christian Rodriguez	2 of 15	13%	2 of 12	0 of 0	0 of 3	2 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Raul Rosas Jr.	23 of 40	57%	23 of 40	0 of 0	0 of 0	3 of 15	0 of 0	20 of 25

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Christian Rodriguez * vs. Raul Rosas Jr.
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosas (-225), Rodriguez (+190)

Round 1
Of the 26 competitors on the lineup, just one missed weight: Rodriguez (8-1, 1-1 UFC), who clocked in a pound heavy for his bantamweight meeting with surging youngster Rosas (7-0, 1-0 UFC). Rosas will be looking for his second UFC win before his 19th birthday, while the relatively elderly Rodriguez at 25 is also hunting for win no. 2 in the promotion. Grappling should be on display for this catchweight affair, one that will be joined in the cage by referee Keith Peterson. Nonsense has left the building, while former President Donald Trump is sitting next to Dana White. The fighters have no interest in touching gloves, and instead want to get right down to business. Rosas sprints at his opponent for a takedown, and Rodriguez easily stops it and gets pushed to the wall. A second try from Rosas trips Rodriguez to the floor for a moment, and he even lifts Rodriguez up in the air, but “CeeRod” keeps himself upright and knees the body. Rosas drops down for a single, and Rodriguez defends it by punching and elbowing Rosas in the face. “El Nino Problema” whips Rodriguez down to the mat, and he moves straight into half guard and shifts to side control. Rosas snatches up a guillotine choke, and Rodriguez times this perfectly to flip over him and gain dominant position. Rosas explodes back to his feet before falling victim to a potential submission, and he pushes Rodriguez up to the wire. Rosas clasps his hands around the waist, and Rodriguez remains upright and has his mouthpiece knocked out by a jump knee from his opponent. Rosas yanks Rodriguez down to the floor, and Rodriguez stands up. Rosas jumps on his back and hooks his legs around the waist for a body triangle, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke. The forearm is not under the neck and is more of a face crank, but Rodriguez grits it out and fights the hands to stop the choke from succeeding. Rosas resets it and secures the arm on the jaw, and he squeezes with all his might. Rodriguez lowers himself to the floor, and he protects himself by hand-fighting again. Rosas secures the body triangle again, crushing down below the ribs, and Rodriguez attempts to turn over. Rosas looks to switch for an armbar setup, but he bails on it to hang on until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosas

Round 2
The two fighters meet in the middle, and Rosas instantly starts the round by shooting for a single. Rodriguez bowls him over and pushes the youngster to the mat. Briefly taking side control, Rodriguez cannot keep him down and stands up. He greets Rosas with a knee and an elbow, and Rosas holds on and drops down for a failed single. Rodriguez pushes him off and steps back from a spinning back kick, and he attacks another takedown and manages to take Rodriguez’ back standing. The 18-year-old, who appears to be fading slightly, pulls Rodriguez down to the floor momentarily. Rodriguez climbs back up with the wall behind him, and he looks to grab Rosas’ leg from behind his own. Rosas falls to his back, and he throws his legs up for a potential inverted triangle setup. Rodriguez shrugs it off and moves to north-south position, and he shifts over to half guard and drops down an elbow. Rosas rolls and scrambles wildly, but Rodriguez follows him every step of the way and winds up in side control, elbowing the body. Rosas attempts to push off the wall with his feet, and he rolls to his knees and gives up his back. Rodriguez bullies Rosas down to the floor, and he locks up the body triangle and gains possession of the back. Rosas turns over, and Rodriguez slugs him in the side of the head a few times while maintaining the body lock. Rodriguez sets up a rear-naked choke, and he softens “El Nino Problema” up with his right hand. Rodriguez maintains his leg grip tight as a drum, and he rides out the round on the back.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 3
The final round kicks off, and this time, Rosas does not frantically shoot for takedown. Rodriguez catches him with a right hand, and he times a leaping Rosas with another overhand right. The punches of Rodriguez slightly dislodge the youngster’s mouthpiece, and he bears down on him and slugs him a few more times. Rosas charges for a takedown, and he releases the grip when it fails. Rodriguez stops it and stands up, and he meanders towards his opponent and staves off another entry. Rosas leaps forward with a left hand, and Rodriguez whiffs on a counter. The 18-year-old ends up giving up his back when shooting in for a takedown, and Rodriguez pummels him until throwing Rosas down to the ground and claiming the mount position. The calm Rodriguez flattens his prey out briefly, and he pounds on him with unblocked punches. Rodriguez postures up and slowly, methodically beats on Rosas, who latches onto his left arm with all his might. Rodriguez elbows behind the ear, and he wraps up the body lock and takes the back. Rodriguez plants his elbow on Rosas’ dome, and he considers a choke but elects to keep punching Rosas. Rodriguez threatens with rear-naked choke setups from both arms, and he looks to shift over to mount but instead fastens his grip for a face crank. Rosas twists and turns, but Rodriguez is wise to every move and smacks him around. With 20 seconds to spare, Rodriguez releases his leg grip and stands back up. Rodriguez eats a left hand and nails Rosas with a few left hands of his own. The fight comes to a close, and the undefeated record of the 18-year-old is about to go up in smoke.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Rodriguez (29-27 Rodriguez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Rodriguez (29-27 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Christian Rodriguez def. Raul Rosas Jr. via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Raul Rosas Jr.

Angelo is confident in Raul Rosas Jr., noting that Christian Rodriguez has been taken down 10 times in the UFC, and Raul is a relentless grappler who doesn't let people up. He thinks it's that simple: Raul will take him down and control him. He has a moneyline bet at -185 and expects the line to move further in Raul's favor.

moneyline bet at -185

"I got Raul Rosas at minus 185. but this line is sort of all over the place"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Raul Rosas Jr.

Big Brady picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by first-round submission, impressed by his grappling and maturity. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down by previous opponents and that Rosas has elite BJJ. He warns about Rodriguez's guillotine but believes Rosas will be wise to it. He predicts an early finish.

first round submission

"I'm gonna go rob Rose's Junior first round sub"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Raul Rosas Jr.

Cody picks Rosas, arguing that despite his age, he is rapidly improving and his wrestling should be effective against Rodriguez, who has poor takedown defense. Cody notes that Rodriguez is still developing himself and the gap between an 18-year-old and a 25-year-old isn't huge. He believes Rosas' physical maturity and grappling will carry him, and that the price is fair. He acknowledges Rosas may eventually be humbled but not here.

"I think he is the pick"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Raul Rosas Jr.

Connor picks Rosas because Rodriguez takes himself out of position and fights into the clinch, where Rosas excels. Rosas is a great back-taker and crushing positional grappler. Rodriguez showed vulnerability to takedowns against Joshua Weems, and Rosas is a much better grappler. Connor doesn't see anything in Rodriguez's game that suggests he can stay off the ground or win if taken down.

Rosas opened at -175, now -233; Rodriguez opened at +156, now +203. Connor thinks the odds could get wider.

"You got to take Raul."

MMA Vivisection

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Raul Rosas Jr.

Jacob is also confident in Raul, sharing a story about how Raul started grappling after being out-grappled once, showing his natural talent. He notes that Christian Rodriguez likes to scramble, which will lead to Raul taking his back. He predicts a finish after the first takedown.

"I like Raul with the finish I think it happens after the first takedown"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Rodriguez is a well-rounded prospect with pinpoint striking and good scrambles. Rosas is a young grappling phenom but his striking is raw and he makes positional mistakes. Rodriguez has the composure to reverse positions and keep the fight standing, where he has a clear advantage. I think Rosas's overzealous grappling will be exploited, and Rodriguez wins by knockout or decision.

"I think the guy with the brighter future out of both of these guys is Christian Rodriguez in my opinion he's the more complete fighter here"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

Paul picks Rodriguez as a dog but is hesitant. He questions Rosas' striking and notes that if Rodriguez can survive the early rounds and get back to his feet, he has a striking advantage. Paul points out Rodriguez's good scrambling and ability to land shots. He also mentions the Florida crowd might favor exciting striking over grinding wrestling. However, he acknowledges Rosas' wrestling is a threat and that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense.

"for the purposes of the show I'll pick the dog in Christian Rodriguez"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)

Raul Rosas Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by second-round submission via face crank. He initially thought decision but changed due to Rodriguez's bad weight cut. He expects Rodriguez to do well early but fade, with Rosas taking over in scrambles and eventually sinking in a choke over the jaw. He describes a detailed grappling sequence leading to the tap.

second round submission, face crank

"I'm gonna go with Raul roses Jr by second late second round submission"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Raul Rosas Jr.

Zane picks Rosas because Rodriguez's takedown defense is poor, as seen against Weems. Rosas is an aggressive grappler with excellent back-taking and ground control. Zane notes that Rodriguez's record shows submissions, but he doesn't see anything that suggests he can avoid being taken down and controlled by Rosas.

Rosas opened at -175, now -233; Rodriguez opened at +156, now +203. Zane thinks the odds could get wider.

"Same."

MMA Vivisection

View all 10 fights

Melquizael Costa - Fight History

LOSS vs Arnold Allen

DEC R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Arnold Allen	1	98 of 152	64%	156 of 222	7 of 7	100%	0	0	9:28
Melquizael Costa	0	100 of 254	39%	118 of 280	0 of 4	0%	0	0	1:45

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Arnold Allen	1	9 of 9	100%	18 of 20	2 of 2	100%	1:44
1	Melquizael Costa	0	10 of 14	71%	19 of 25	0 of 2	0%	1:45
2	Arnold Allen	0	23 of 38	60%	28 of 44	0 of 0	---	0:36
2	Melquizael Costa	0	26 of 78	33%	28 of 81	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Arnold Allen	0	32 of 52	61%	44 of 66	0 of 0	---	1:22
3	Melquizael Costa	0	30 of 71	42%	30 of 72	0 of 1	0%	0:00
4	Arnold Allen	0	23 of 36	63%	26 of 41	1 of 1	100%	1:43
4	Melquizael Costa	0	23 of 63	36%	24 of 67	0 of 0	---	0:00
5	Arnold Allen	0	11 of 17	64%	40 of 51	4 of 4	100%	4:03
5	Melquizael Costa	0	11 of 28	39%	17 of 35	0 of 1	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Arnold Allen	98 of 152	64%	81 of 134	6 of 7	11 of 11	79 of 131	0 of 2	19 of 19
Melquizael Costa	100 of 254	39%	47 of 173	20 of 42	33 of 39	97 of 249	0 of 1	3 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Arnold Allen	9 of 9	100%	8 of 8	0 of 0	1 of 1	4 of 4	0 of 0	5 of 5
1	Melquizael Costa	10 of 14	71%	5 of 8	3 of 3	2 of 3	7 of 11	0 of 0	3 of 3
2	Arnold Allen	23 of 38	60%	16 of 31	2 of 2	5 of 5	23 of 38	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Melquizael Costa	26 of 78	33%	8 of 49	5 of 14	13 of 15	26 of 78	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Arnold Allen	32 of 52	61%	27 of 47	2 of 2	3 of 3	25 of 45	0 of 0	7 of 7
3	Melquizael Costa	30 of 71	42%	14 of 49	7 of 13	9 of 9	30 of 71	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Arnold Allen	23 of 36	63%	20 of 33	1 of 1	2 of 2	23 of 35	0 of 1	0 of 0
4	Melquizael Costa	23 of 63	36%	10 of 41	4 of 11	9 of 11	23 of 63	0 of 0	0 of 0
5	Arnold Allen	11 of 17	64%	10 of 15	1 of 2	0 of 0	4 of 9	0 of 1	7 of 7
5	Melquizael Costa	11 of 28	39%	10 of 26	1 of 1	0 of 1	11 of 26	0 of 1	0 of 1

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Arnold Allen

Angelo picks Arnold Allen, believing he is cleaner, faster, and more experienced. He is not worried about Costa's grappling and thinks Allen will control the striking. He notes Costa has random power but sees no reason Allen is chinny. He expects Allen to be a step ahead.

"Arnold Allen is the pick. ... I think Arnold Allen is cleaner. I think he's faster. He certainly has more experience."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Arnold Allen

Big Brady picks Arnold Allen despite not being a fan, citing the five-round distance as key. He expects Costa to fade in later rounds, as seen in his previous fights. He predicts a decision win for Allen, noting that if it were three rounds, he might pick Costa.

"I like Allen here."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Arnold Allen

Cody leans toward Arnold Allen due to his experience in five-round fights and higher level of competition, despite a 1-3 record in his last four. He notes Allen's ability to win rounds against elite fighters like Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev, and expects his cardio to be an advantage as the fight progresses. However, he is hesitant to bet the current -155 line and prefers to play Allen in the live market if he loses early rounds. He acknowledges Melquizael Costa's recent knockout power and higher volume, but worries about Costa's cardio in a five-round fight.

Would rather bet Arnold Allen in the live market if he loses the first round; expects a 48-47 decision.

"I'd rather just bet Arnold Allen in the live market instead of betting minus 155 right now."

Bookie Beatdown

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)

Arnold Allen

Costa is more technical and dynamic on the feet, but may fade in later rounds. Allen is tough, durable, and has good cardio. If Costa's gas tank holds, he wins; if not, Allen takes over. Lean Allen but not betting.

Costa +5.5 is interesting but odds too short.

"My lean is Arnold Allen, but I wouldn't bet him."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Arnold Allen

Lucrative James picks Arnold Allen to win, citing Allen's superior five-round experience, size, and ability to close distance against kickers like Costa. He believes Costa's recent knockout streak is not repeatable and that Allen's losses to elite fighters (Max Holloway, Movsar Evloev, Jean Silva) were competitive. He also notes Allen's grappling advantage and the small cage benefiting Allen's pressure style.

"I think Arnold Allen is going to win the fight. I trust Arnold Allen a little bit more with his five round experience."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Arnold Allen

The host picks Arnold Allen but is hesitant due to the chalky odds. He expects Allen to land more significant damage, but acknowledges Costa's volume and aggression could cause issues. He believes Allen's veteran savvy and five-round experience will lead to a decision win.

"It's hard for me to fully trust Allen, especially at chalky odds here, but I expect him to land more a significant damage. Although the volume and aggression of Costa could potentially cause Allen some issues, I believe the veteran …"

MMA Lock of the Night

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Arnold Allen

The host leans with the veteran Allen due to his experience and ability to potentially exploit Costa's aggressive style, especially in a five-round fight. However, he is not confident enough to bet Allen at -180, as he has never been high on Allen. He predicts Allen wins by decision and might consider the over.

over (implied)

"I find myself leaning with the veteran though. I find myself leaning with Allen. I I just feel like he's his experience."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Melquizael Costa

Paul is not passionate about the main event but leans toward Melquizael Costa if forced to make a play. He notes that Costa has been on a good run and that Arnold Allen has never been knocked down in the UFC, but Costa seems to be putting it together. He is not confident enough to bet pre-fight and will focus on live markets instead.

"If I was forced to make a play, I'd probably click Costa."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2023 (1201 days before fight)

The host leans towards Max Holloway because the fight is five rounds, which favors Holloway's cardio and experience. He notes that Arnold Allen tends to break his hand and slow down in later rounds, as seen in the Sadiq Yusuf fight. He believes Allen will win the first two rounds but fade, allowing Holloway to potentially finish in rounds 4 or 5. He also mentions Holloway's durability and volume punching.

"I am leaning towards Max Holloway winning this fight as it goes on maybe getting a finish in the later rounds"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Dan Ige

KO R1 4:56 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Dan Ige	0	7 of 11	63%	12 of 16	1 of 3	33%	0	0	1:31
Melquizael Costa	1	19 of 40	47%	26 of 48	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:32

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Dan Ige	0	7 of 11	63%	12 of 16	1 of 3	33%	0	0	1:31
1	Melquizael Costa	1	19 of 40	47%	26 of 48	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:32

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Dan Ige	7 of 11	63%	2 of 5	2 of 3	3 of 3	7 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0
Melquizael Costa	19 of 40	47%	9 of 26	7 of 9	3 of 5	13 of 29	4 of 5	2 of 6

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Dan Ige	7 of 11	63%	2 of 5	2 of 3	3 of 3	7 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Melquizael Costa	19 of 40	47%	9 of 26	7 of 9	3 of 5	13 of 29	4 of 5	2 of 6

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Melquizael Costa vs. Dan Ige

Round 1
Jacob Montalvo is the referee. Ige takes the center, kicks the leg and then lands a takedown. Costa is right back up as Ige presses him into the cage. Ige with a shoulder strike from the clinch. Costa is able to toss Ige to the canvas and then lands a knee to the body as his foe stands. They’re battling it out in the clinch, and Costa drives a couple knees to the midsection. Costa with another knee and then he shoves Ige away. Costa goes high with a kick, but Ige has his guard up .Another high kick from Costa is blocked. Costa follows yet another head kick with a front kick down the middle. Another front kick has hurt Ige, but he keeps his wits to survive a follow-up barrage from his foe. Costa steps in with an elbow, then lands a knee as he slides out of range. Ige forces the clinch, but Costa knees and separates. Costa follows a side kick to the body with a left hand. A leg kick lands on Ige. Costa backs up to the fence but leaps in with a knee.
With time winding down, Costa drops Ige with a beautiful spinning back kick to the jaw. Ige covers up on the canvas, and Costa unloads with about seven to eight standing-to-ground punches before Montalvo steps in to wave off the fight.
Costa has his sixth straight UFC win and in the process becomes the first person to finish Ige in 30 professional fights.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Dan Ige via TKO (Spinning Back Kick and Punches) R1 4:56

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Melquizael Costa

Angelo picks Melquizael Costa, citing his speed, busy style, and well-rounded skills. He respects Dan Ige's toughness and experience but believes Costa is the rising star. He also suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Ige as a potential prop, noting Ige often wins rounds even in losses.

Suggests Dan Ige plus 3.5 as a prop bet.

"I got to pick Mel Costa."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)

Melquizael Costa

Big Brady picks Melquizael Costa to defeat Dan Ige, citing Costa's hot streak and superior minute-winning. He notes Costa has more tools on the feet, including kicks, and that Ige is hittable and tends to lose decisions. He is concerned about Ige's last performance against Pitbull, where he did nothing. He predicts Costa will win by decision, picking him apart with volume. He mentions the line moved from -120 to -185, indicating public money on Costa.

Melquizael Costa by decision; line movement noted

"I like Costa here. I kind of think it's just a Costa decision. Just picking apart Dan Ige, who is hittable, landing a lot of kicks, landing a lot of volume, and winning this fight on the scorecard."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Dan Ige

Cody likes Ige at plus money, citing his recent performances against top competition (Diego Lopez, Lerone Murphy, Patricio Pitbull) where he won rounds. He thinks Costa's wrestling isn't proven and that Ige's cardio and power in later rounds give him an edge. He expects a decision win for Ige.

"I got a Dan Eay play out of this. And if you really want to get jiggy with it, like Eay's got knockout power. Do not overlook it, but likely Eay by decision."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)

Dan Ige

Connor picks Ige but with caution, noting that Costa is an opportunistic fighter who has been winning but often in messy ways. He points out that Costa tends to fade in the third round and that Ige is durable and a good counter puncher. He also notes that Ige has been impossible to finish and that Costa's lack of process could be exploited by Ige's experience.

Ige opened +105, now +182; Costa opened -125, now -212

"I'm going to pick Danny Gaye, but it's a very uneasy pick and I have been wrong. I've been surprised by Costa all the way through."

MMA Vivisection

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)

The host favors Costa stylistically due to his size, length, and technical striking, but considers the odds too steep to bet. He notes both fighters are weak on the ground, and Ige has one-shot knockout power, making Costa a risky bet at -224. He passes on betting either side.

"This is one of those matchups where for me it's an easy pass. I favor Costa. He should win. The odds are too steep. There's no way I can justify a bet on him at these odds."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)

Dan Ige

James picks Dan Ige as the betting side, believing Ige has better pocket boxing and power, and that Costa's cardio and durability are questionable. He notes that Ige has faced much tougher competition and that Costa's recent wins are over lesser opponents. James expects Ige to get a knockout, possibly in the later rounds as Costa fades.

"I am going to pick Eay as the betting side. I think that ultimately gets a knockout in this one."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Melquizael Costa

Costa is on a five-fight winning streak with good activity and a kicking game that should trouble Ige. Ige is a veteran boxer but has struggled against high-volume strikers. Costa's range and kicks should keep Ige at bay, and he should land the more significant strikes. Ige could have success if he crashes the pocket, but Costa should win a decision.

"I still think he ends up landing more significant strikes, the better shots, the more eye-catching shots, and I think that leads to him winning this fight on the scorecards."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Dan Ige

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Ige's ability to win rounds against elite fighters. He points out that Costa has slowed down in later rounds and that Ige's takedown defense has improved. He thinks the fight goes to decision and Ige's experience gives him the edge.

"I want that plus money price tag for sure. Milk's a little unproven, right?"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)

Dan Ige

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige by TKO, feeling that Ige's composure and power will catch Costa. He notes that Costa sometimes throws lazy kicks and can be caught on the back foot. He believes Ige is the highest-level opponent Costa has faced and can time him for a KO.

TKO

"I think Dan Ige is going to get this one done by TKO."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)

Dan Ige

Zane also picks Ige with the same caution, agreeing that Costa's success is partly smoke and mirrors. He notes that Costa is not a process-driven fighter and that opponents who are resilient tend to do better against him as the fight goes on. He believes Ige's counter-punching and durability will be key, but acknowledges Costa could win if he lands a big shot early.

"So I'm picking Ige too, but with exactly the same amount of caution. As you, I am prepared to be wrong."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Morgan Charrière

KO R1 1:14 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Melquizael Costa	1	4 of 9	44%	4 of 9	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:02
Morgan Charrière	0	2 of 4	50%	2 of 4	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Melquizael Costa	1	4 of 9	44%	4 of 9	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:02
1	Morgan Charrière	0	2 of 4	50%	2 of 4	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Melquizael Costa	4 of 9	44%	1 of 3	1 of 1	2 of 5	4 of 9	0 of 0	0 of 0
Morgan Charrière	2 of 4	50%	0 of 2	0 of 0	2 of 2	2 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Melquizael Costa	4 of 9	44%	1 of 3	1 of 1	2 of 5	4 of 9	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Morgan Charrière	2 of 4	50%	0 of 2	0 of 0	2 of 2	2 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Morgan Charriere vs. Melquizael Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-110); Charriere (-110)

Round 1
Finally settling on a suitable—and spectacular—nickname, Costa (24-7, 5-2 UFC) now goes by “The Dalmatian” rather than some version of his name or a riff on some inside joke no one gets. He faces an equally dramatic traveler, Charriere (21-11-1, 3-2 UFC), who used to go by the nickname of “Luffy” in honor of the main character from anime series “One Piece.” There will be no Gum Gum attacks in the cage as long as referee Eric McMahon is in charge. The featherweights race towards one another, not bothering to touch gloves as Costa moves right to the center of the cage.
Costa pitches out a low kick and then one to the liver, the latter landing loudly. Charriere kicks him back, resulting in a back-and-forth kick-off. Costa aims a push kick to the knee of his foe, and he splits the guard with a jab.
Out of nowhere, “The Dalmatian” drops down and hurls a missile of a high kick, who falls to the floor off-balance. Before he hits the deck, his foot wraps just around the guard enough to completely separate Charriere from his senses. Even with Charriere blocking it, the sheer impact was enough to completely neutralize him.
Charriere collapses to his back, limbs seemingly stricken by rigor mortis, his eyes wide open but no one is home. Costa scoots back up to his feet and is about to drop down a punctuating blow, but he peels off seeing that his work here is done. After a very brief celebratory hoot, Costa drops to his knees in the center of the cage respectfully as he waits for Charriere to recover. Thankfully, Charriere sits up and is able to return to his feet before long, but he needs to be assisted out of the cage with someone having their arm around him. It is an emotional moment for the pink and blue-haired featherweight who may have just earned the biggest win of his career in ultra-violent fashion.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Morgan Charriere R1 1:14 via KO (Head Kick)

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Melquizael Costa

Cody picks Costa, citing his well-rounded game, durability, and ability to mix striking with takedowns. He notes Charrière's low volume and tendency to wait, while Costa is more active and willing to push the pace. He expects Costa to win a decision.

Costa by decision +150

"Melk Costa is the side for me."

Bookie Beatdown

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Morgan Charrière

Lucrative James leans toward Morgan Charrière, citing his ability to dictate where the fight takes place and his power advantage. However, he admits it's a 50/50 fight and not confident, noting Charrière's inconsistent fight IQ and Costa's kicking and grappling skills. He projects even odds at -110 each.

"I will say that Sharier gets it done just cuz I think that he can probably dictate where the fight takes place."

Lucrative MMA

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Melquizael Costa

Paul also picks Costa, emphasizing his blend of skills and recent submission streak. He thinks Charrière is skilled but often does not do enough, while Costa's forward pressure and grappling will secure the win. He suggests Costa by decision.

Costa by decision +150

"Melk Costa by decision."

Bookie Beatdown

WIN vs Julian Erosa

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Julian Erosa	0	69 of 173	39%	85 of 202	3 of 10	30%	0	0	3:34
Melquizael Costa	0	102 of 204	50%	128 of 236	2 of 3	66%	1	0	0:23

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Julian Erosa	10 of 26	38%	10 of 27	1 of 3	33%	0	0:36
1	Melquizael Costa	32 of 75	42%	32 of 75	0 of 0	---	0	0:01
2	Julian Erosa	23 of 54	42%	30 of 62	2 of 4	50%	0	1:56
2	Melquizael Costa	33 of 55	60%	47 of 70	1 of 2	50%	1	0:08
3	Julian Erosa	36 of 93	38%	45 of 113	0 of 3	0%	0	1:02
3	Melquizael Costa	37 of 74	50%	49 of 91	1 of 1	100%	0	0:14

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Julian Erosa	69 of 173	39%	42 of 140	18 of 24	9 of 9	55 of 150	13 of 21	1 of 2
Melquizael Costa	102 of 204	50%	67 of 160	16 of 22	19 of 22	99 of 196	3 of 7	0 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Julian Erosa	10 of 26	38%	5 of 19	1 of 3	4 of 4	9 of 24	0 of 0	1 of 2
1	Melquizael Costa	32 of 75	42%	14 of 52	7 of 10	11 of 13	32 of 73	0 of 2	0 of 0
2	Julian Erosa	23 of 54	42%	11 of 40	8 of 10	4 of 4	15 of 43	8 of 11	0 of 0
2	Melquizael Costa	33 of 55	60%	25 of 46	3 of 4	5 of 5	31 of 53	2 of 2	0 of 0
3	Julian Erosa	36 of 93	38%	26 of 81	9 of 11	1 of 1	31 of 83	5 of 10	0 of 0
3	Melquizael Costa	37 of 74	50%	28 of 62	6 of 8	3 of 4	36 of 70	1 of 3	0 of 1

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-192), Erosa (+160)

Round 1
Although much can be said about the state of UFC matchmaking as of late, the promotion knew exactly what it was doing when it matched Erosa (31-11, 9-7 UFC) against Costa (23-7, 4-2 UFC). It chose violence. The featherweights will go for broke under the watchful eye of referee Herb Dean, and they get right to it after embracing the formality of bumping fists. Costa prods with the ball of his foot, looking for low kicks as Erosa walks him down. Costa keeps working on the front leg as Erosa gives him one back, and Erosa grabs his foe’s foot and lifts it up. Costa bounces off the fence to get his limb back, and he whiffs on two hooks. Costa scores a body kick as he stays on the outside, and after pitching a leg kick, he trips on the edge of the cage but does not fall over. Erosa lets him get up and continues to trade kicks with him, and Costa mixes things up with a surprise Superman punch. Costa follows it with a booming head kick that rocks “Juicy J,” who backs off to the fence but is still dangerous as a coiled snake. Costa walks forward to throw bombs, and Erosa snipes him with a mean right hand that makes him think twice. Erosa gets his legs back beneath him and blocks a head kick, walking Costa down but taking three punches on the chin to do so. Erosa fakes a spin and lunges forward with an elbow, slipping and falling over. Costa lets him up so he can leap at him with a knee, and he chains punches into a body kick as Erosa is now the one retreating. Costa parries a few punches and lets fly a left hand, and his second effort reaches his man. Costa wraps a head kick around the guard and Erosa shrugs it off, nailing Costa with a right hand over the top. Erosa jumps at his foe to attack, and Costa times a spinning back kick that pounds into the cup. Erosa grumbles and adjusts his groin supporter before waving Dean off. Costa lets his foe’s fists and feet whiz past him so he can deliver a hard body kick, and Erosa fakes his way in to take the fight down. Erosa whips Costa all the way around to take him down, and he slashes down with an elbow as soon as he gets to side control. Costa is warned for having his toes in the cage, and Erosa drops down a few punches and leans back to watch an upkick buzz past him at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Costa’s left foot is leaking blood as the second round begins, but he shrugs it off and touches gloves with his opponent. Erosa gets right into attack mode, firing off a head kick and a right hand but getting countered with a left and a body kick. Costa belts “Juicy J” with a left hand, and Erosa bites down on his mouthpiece to unload a power punch. Costa shakes Erosa up with a one-two, and Erosa again has to recover before coming forward. The punches of Costa make Erosa pursue a takedown, and Costa defends with a guillotine choke and stands back up to re-secure it. Erosa holds on and leverages Costa back down, but he in submission danger again. Costa lets go before burning his arms out, and he stands up. Erosa leans on from behind, his left eye swelling up fast. Costa defends a takedown effort and keeps his balance, stomping Erosa’s foot and receiving an elbow in the face for his effort. As Erosa is leaning heavily on his man, Costa sweeps his leg and puts him down for a second. Erosa climbs back up and walks through a one-two. Costa reaches the Washington native at the end of a left hand, and Erosa fires back with a vengeance. They reach one another with long punches, and instead of clinching, Erosa pushes off and shrugs at him. Costa lines up a solid crescent kick that hits the target, and Erosa goes for broke with punches and kicks to any target he can find. Erosa pokes Costa in the eye, and Costa tells them he is fine and keeps going. Erosa thanks him by drilling a spinning back kick in his ribs, and Costa laughs it off and throws hammers. Erosa staggers Costa with a pair of hooks, and a grinning Costa swings back with bad intentions and rocks Erosa. Erosa spins through to hit Costa in the face with his foot, and he knocks Costa across the cage with a left hand right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erosa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
While Erosa does touch gloves, he is a man on a mission. Walking Costa down immediately, he swings his way into a clinch. Erosa leans on the Brazilian to slow him down, getting off the occasional knee until Costa trips him and sets him down. Erosa responds by nailing Costa with an upkick and working his way to his feet, where he backs “Melk” off and dislodges his mouthpiece with a right hand. He follows with another right hand to lead into a clinch, and Costa backs off with a left hook. The two clash heads after Erosa lands an uppercut, and “Juicy J” pours it on while swinging wildly. Costa’s head movement keeps him relatively safe, and he blasts Erosa in the jaw with four punches in a combination. Erosa’s movement leads him to banging into the fence, but he is quick to shake it off and uppercut Costa in the chops. Erosa continues staying in Costa’s face, with punches that lead to an elbow as Costa is backing off but smiling. Erosa lines up punches in bunches, and his elbows are not accurate. They proceed to brawl it out with little regard to defense or cardio, and even though Costa is fatigued, he is still loading up with everything he has. Thankfully for those watching this carnage, Erosa is doing just the same, as they proceed to hammer one another in the jaw again and again. Costa trips Erosa up to get a second to breathe, and he backs off to avoid an upkick and let Erosa stand. Erosa marches ever forward, swinging recklessly while Costa is giving it back when he can. Costa takes several punches square on the jaw and offers up a knee, and Erosa spins with a back fist. A second and third back fist from Erosa do manage to rail into the Brazilian, who is as tough as nails and never falters. The action-packed “Fight of the Night” candidate goes the distance, and both exhausted men raise their arms. The second round may be where the victor emerges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erosa (29-28 Erosa)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa (29-28 Costa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa (29-28 Costa)

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Julian Erosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Melquizael Costa

Angelo picks Melquizael Costa with high confidence, stating that Costa should be better everywhere. He notes Costa's creative striking, solid grappling, and incredible scrambles. His only concern is Costa's activity level, as this will be his fifth fight in 12 months, which could lead to nagging injuries or fatigue. However, Angelo is not overly concerned and expects Costa to win.

"Mel Costa. I am very confident in this pick."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Julian Erosa

Big Brady picks Julian Erosa as a dog, acknowledging Costa could knock him out early. He notes Costa's quick turnaround and tendency to slow down, while Erosa has great cardio and a nasty choke game. He predicts Erosa wins by second-round submission if it gets extended.

Erosa by submission, round 2

"I like a Rosa here as a dog. ... I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round submission."

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Melquizael Costa

The host notes Costa's aggressiveness and unorthodox striking can catch Erosa off guard, especially since six of Erosa's seven losses have come by knockout. He feels Costa can take advantage of Erosa's mistakes and get a finish. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

Costa by KO/TKO; under 2.5 rounds

"I think his just aggressiveness and unorthodox striking approach can really catch Arosa offguard."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Melquizael Costa

The Guru picks Melquizael Costa, calling him a fellow 'fraud checker' who can handle Julian Erosa's gritty style. He notes Costa's grappling looked improved against Christian Rodriguez and his kicks are very good. He worries about Erosa's upset potential but believes Costa is better and more active. He predicts a TKO or decision win.

"I'm going to have to go with Malikisel Costa. I think he's just better by far than Julian Rosa."

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Christian Rodriguez

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Christian Rodriguez	0	64 of 98	65%	77 of 113	6 of 15	40%	1	1	6:48
Melquizael Costa	0	65 of 105	61%	159 of 208	1 of 2	50%	1	3	4:53

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Christian Rodriguez	11 of 14	78%	12 of 15	1 of 5	20%	1	0	2:07
1	Melquizael Costa	22 of 32	68%	63 of 73	0 of 1	0%	0	1	2:12
2	Christian Rodriguez	19 of 27	70%	24 of 33	1 of 4	25%	0	1	1:42
2	Melquizael Costa	26 of 40	65%	71 of 93	1 of 1	100%	1	1	2:24
3	Christian Rodriguez	34 of 57	59%	41 of 65	4 of 6	66%	0	0	2:59
3	Melquizael Costa	17 of 33	51%	25 of 42	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:17

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Christian Rodriguez	64 of 98	65%	36 of 69	23 of 24	5 of 5	29 of 53	26 of 31	9 of 14
Melquizael Costa	65 of 105	61%	39 of 72	19 of 25	7 of 8	19 of 47	17 of 23	29 of 35

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Christian Rodriguez	11 of 14	78%	3 of 5	8 of 9	0 of 0	2 of 3	9 of 11	0 of 0
1	Melquizael Costa	22 of 32	68%	5 of 11	15 of 19	2 of 2	4 of 9	8 of 12	10 of 11
2	Christian Rodriguez	19 of 27	70%	8 of 16	9 of 9	2 of 2	10 of 18	9 of 9	0 of 0
2	Melquizael Costa	26 of 40	65%	21 of 32	2 of 4	3 of 4	3 of 11	7 of 8	16 of 21
3	Christian Rodriguez	34 of 57	59%	25 of 48	6 of 6	3 of 3	17 of 32	8 of 11	9 of 14
3	Melquizael Costa	17 of 33	51%	13 of 29	2 of 2	2 of 2	12 of 27	2 of 3	3 of 3

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

"I'm definitely going to pick him. But I think it stands to be a little bit of a lumpier kind of fight."

MMA Vivisection

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

"I'm definitely gotta pick him. He's just a much better fighter than Costa."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Andre Fili

Submission R1 4:30 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Andre Fili	0	7 of 24	29%	7 of 24	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:24
Melquizael Costa	0	27 of 56	48%	27 of 56	0 of 1	0%	1	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Andre Fili	0	7 of 24	29%	7 of 24	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:24
1	Melquizael Costa	0	27 of 56	48%	27 of 56	0 of 1	0%	1	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Andre Fili	7 of 24	29%	4 of 20	3 of 4	0 of 0	7 of 24	0 of 0	0 of 0
Melquizael Costa	27 of 56	48%	3 of 25	10 of 13	14 of 18	26 of 55	1 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Andre Fili	7 of 24	29%	4 of 20	3 of 4	0 of 0	7 of 24	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Melquizael Costa	27 of 56	48%	3 of 25	10 of 13	14 of 18	26 of 55	1 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Melquizael Costa vs. Andre Fili

Round 1
A veritable chasm of UFC-level experience separates the next two featherweights, with grizzled Team Alpha Male product Fili (24-11, 1 NC; 12-10, 1 NC UFC) looking to hold the line and remind folks he is still very much a factor. Like Fili, Costa’s (21-7, 2-2 UFC) tenure thus far has been somewhat inconsistent but fairly violent. Referee Jeff Hoiby draws the charge between the two, and the local man Fili has no time for a glove touch as he wants to get going immediately. Fili chases his foe around the cage, looking for his jab. Costa backs him off briefly with a pair of high kicks, and he doubles up on leg kicks as well. Fili walks through everything pitched at him to sling leather, including a right left hand that zips through his guard. “Let’s go Fili” chants boom through the building, and they both fire off head kicks. Fili’s gets his foe’s attention, with Costa smiling at him. They decide to throw caution to the wind for a moment and brawl with no interest in defense, and they tag one another cleanly but do not budge. Costa backs off and fires off a wheel kick, and he settles himself to chop at the Washington-based fighter’s knee with oblique kicks. Costa rips a kick to the ribs as Fili is marching ever forward, and he narrowly evades getting his chin checked with a low kick but still walks into a left hook. Fili blocks a high kick but cannot stop a body kick, and he plods forward, energized by “USA” chants. Fili whiffs on a head kick, unable to lock his foe down, and he brushes his shoulder when Costa misses as well. Fili blocks a kick and hurls one right back, and Costa breathes a sight of relief and strikes back with a high kick. Fili motions that he protected himself from it, and Costa stays on his bike prodding with oblique kicks. Fili connects with a heavy body kick, dodges one that comes back and makes a matador motion. Fili takes a kick and shoots in for a takedown, and when he hits it,
Costa wraps up a guillotine choke and wrenches with all his might. The Brazilian clings to the choke, which is not going anywhere as he has it tight as a drum with his right leg wrapped around Fili’s waist. Fili is fine until suddenly he is not, and he frantically taps out.
The stunned audience is silenced in a second, as the hometown fighter surrenders from the submission and walks off disappointed that he got caught. Meanwhile, Costa has just earned the biggest win of his career, and he goes off to celebrate with teammate Joanderson Brito who previously put Fili away in the first round.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Andre Fili R1 4:30 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Melquizael Costa

Big Brady picks the underdog Melquizael Costa, noting that Andre Fili's durability is declining after many wars, and he was dropped and knocked out recently. He thinks Costa is younger, has more tools on the feet with hard kicks to head, legs, and body, and has solid grappling with seven takedowns in his last three fights. He expects a close fight going to decision, with Costa winning a close decision.

by decision

"I'm going toide with the underdog here in in Mel Costa so give me Mel Costa to win the fight I think it's going to be close though I think it's going to be close I think it goes 15"

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Andre Fili

The host acknowledges the fight is close as odds indicate, but believes Fili's strength of schedule, experience, and unorthodox striking will shut down Costa's grappling. He expects Fili to win on the scorecards, possibly by split decision.

"I believe ph's strength of schedule experience and unorthodox striking approach will be enough for him to shut down the grappling of Costa really touching him up from distance and winning this fight on the scorecards but I wouldn't be …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Andre Fili

The Guru hesitantly picks Fili, noting he never likes picking him but sees Costa as getting 'fraud checked'. He values Fili's win over Cub Swanson and thinks Costa's loss to Thiago Moisés is a bad look. He expects Fili to mix in grappling in the second and third rounds and win a close decision.

"I'm going to have to do it again we ride Andre Philly Pickers we ride again"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Submission (face crank) R3 1:50 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Melquizael Costa	0	16 of 35	45%	76 of 106	2 of 2	100%	2	1	3:00
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	0	6 of 8	75%	20 of 28	4 of 10	40%	1	2	6:26

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Melquizael Costa	4 of 7	57%	31 of 39	0 of 0	---	1	1	0:28
1	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	1 of 2	50%	9 of 12	3 of 4	75%	1	0	3:52
2	Melquizael Costa	6 of 16	37%	31 of 46	2 of 2	100%	0	0	1:41
2	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	3 of 4	75%	7 of 11	1 of 4	25%	0	2	2:34
3	Melquizael Costa	6 of 12	50%	14 of 21	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:51
3	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	2 of 2	100%	4 of 5	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Melquizael Costa	16 of 35	45%	8 of 20	5 of 10	3 of 5	8 of 22	5 of 7	3 of 6
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	6 of 8	75%	4 of 6	1 of 1	1 of 1	4 of 6	2 of 2	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Melquizael Costa	4 of 7	57%	1 of 4	0 of 0	3 of 3	4 of 6	0 of 0	0 of 1
1	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	1 of 2	50%	1 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Melquizael Costa	6 of 16	37%	4 of 9	2 of 5	0 of 2	1 of 8	5 of 7	0 of 1
2	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	3 of 4	75%	1 of 2	1 of 1	1 of 1	1 of 2	2 of 2	0 of 0
3	Melquizael Costa	6 of 12	50%	3 of 7	3 of 5	0 of 0	3 of 8	0 of 0	3 of 4
3	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	2 of 2	100%	2 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Melquizael Costa vs. Nuerdanbieke Shayilan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-170), Shayilan (+142)

Round 1
The prelims continue with a featherweight contest featuring two men with plenty of experience despite their young ages. At 27, Costa (20-7, 1-2 UFC) is attempting to even his UFC record to .500, while the 30-year-old Shayilan (39-11, 3-2 UFC) aims to make his 51st pro outing a successful one. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Mike Beltran, and the fight kicks off with no plan of a glove touch. Costa jabs his way forward and tosses out a low kick, and Shayilan hops out of the way. Costa kicks low a second time, and Shayilan counters him with a long right hand. Costa lazily reaches out with a right hand, and Shayilan ducks it and hits an easy double-leg takedown to put the vibrantly haired featherweight on his back. Costa turns to his side and looks for a kimura sweep, and he cranks on the submission from his back. “Wolverine” is calm, cool and collected, and he shrugs off the two-on-one wrist lock to keep his arm in good position. Before he burns his arms out, Costa lets go, and he explodes back to his knees and to his feet. Shayilan hits a quick mat return and loops as hook in to take Costa’s back standing. Costa leans himself against the cage wall, so Shayilan snags the body lock and hurls Costa to the floor. Costa climbs back up, and Shayilan uses sheer muscle to toss Costa down once more. Costa turns quickly to swirl around and take the Chinese fighter’s back, and Shayilan counters with a kneebar out of nowhere. Costa defends the leglock by pulling on Shayilan’s knee to try to free his limb, and he stands up and punches down to force the submission apart. Shayilan sits up and attacks a double, and he presses Costa against the cage when he cannot ground him. Using a trip, Shayilan chucks Costa to the mat, and Costa rolls through and even threatens briefly with his own leglock before Shayilan turns through it. Shayilan climbs on top, and Costa responds with short elbows. As Costa is warned for striking the back of the head, the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan

Round 2
Costa moves right to the center of the cage to start the round, and he walks down Shayilan and pushes out a front kick that is just short of the intended target. Shayilan pursues a level change while Costa kicks at him, and he succeeds in dumping the Brazilian to the floor. Shayilan steps into the guard and thumps his man with an elbow, and Costa replies with a few off his back before rolling to try to get hold of an armlock using his legs. Costa bursts out of the position flat on his back to turn to the side, and he grabs hold of an ankle and trips Shayilan up to put him on his seat. Costa drags Shayilan away from the cage, and Shayilan times this explosion to flip around and get on Costa’s back. Costa stands up and turns to shed the Chinese fighter from his back, and they settle for a clinch. Shayilan shoots deep for a single, and Costa turns the corner to stuff it and somehow get hold of Shayilan. Costa ends up dragging Shayilan down from behind, and he wriggle his left arm around the chin for a moment. Shayilan defends the submission and turns all the way through to reestablish top position. Costa considers a triangle choke setup, but Shayilan tosses it aside. Costa uses this moment to power back to his feet, and Shayilan remains stuck on him like fly paper. Costa works the body with a few knees, and he is forced to stop a sudden level change. Shayilan fails on a second takedown try, and he takes a high kick upside the head that draws an immediate lump by the side of his eye. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
The last round kicks off with Costa throwing single kicks one after the other. Shayilan parries them and circles away from the power, and he ducks a head kick that zips past him. Costa scores a body kick and eats a two-punch combo for his effort, and attacks the body a second time. Shayilan drops all the way down to the ankle to try to trip Costa up, but Costa turns him over and bowls the Chinese fighter to the floor. Shayilan explodes back to his knees, and Costa hangs on from behind before dragging Shayilan down and getting both hooks in.
“Melk” uses a fierce rear-naked choke grip, squeezing it on top of the chin, but it is extremely tight and quite dangerous. Shayilan’s eyes go wide, as he is surprised at just how powerful the face crank is from the Brazilian. Using palm-to-palm grip, he crushes the submission with every remaining bit of his energy.
Rather than grit it out, Shayilan decides to tap with his fist a few times. This is a huge win for Costa, who now celebrates a perfectly even distribution of victory: seven knockouts, seven submissions and seven decisions. This also marks the seventh time that Shayilan has been submitted.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Nuerdanbieke Shayilan R3 1:50 via Submission (Face Crank)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Melquizael Costa

Angelo picks Mel Costa but at very low confidence, noting that Costa is the better fighter but makes poor decisions by wrestling when he should strike. He worries Costa can be pushed around and taken down by Shayilan's bully style. He emphasizes that Costa's wrestling should be plan B, not plan A, and that if he engages in clinch work, Shayilan will drag him to the ground.

"I am going to pick Mel Costa but at insanely very low confidence"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Melquizael Costa

Cody picks Melquizael Costa, noting his striking volume and movement, but is concerned about his last performance where he gassed out against Steve Garcia. He thinks Costa can outwork Nuerdanbieke if he fights smart and doesn't overuse wrestling. Cody expects Costa to win a decision but is not highly confident.

"the pick will be Mel Costa but as you can tell it's just another fight that you don't have a ton of confidence in."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Daniel Vreeland is not high on Melquizael Costa, calling him overrated and lacking killer instinct. He favors Shayilan Nuerdanbieke's power and wrestling, though he notes gassing issues. He believes Nuerdanbieke can hurt Costa or at least win the first round, and calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

"I'm going go shyan to to get an upset here"

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Jacob picks Shayilan, expecting a wrestling vs. jiu-jitsu battle where Shayilan's powerful control wrestling will be key. He thinks Shayilan can get takedowns and keep control for at least two rounds to win a decision. He notes that if Costa is ever in a scramble when Shayilan is tired, Costa is more dangerous, but overall favors Shayilan's wrestling.

"I'm going with Shayilan I think that it's going to be a just a wrestling takedown and then it's going to be Mel trying to do that jiu-jitsu thing off his back"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Melquizael Costa

Costa's movement and Jiu-Jitsu should keep him out of trouble from Nuerdanbieke. As long as Costa stays conscious early, his Jiu-Jitsu will outlast Nuerdanbieke, who will slow down, allowing Costa to take control and potentially find a submission.

"Mel Kaz Costa I think his movement and his Jiu-Jitsu will keep him out of too much trouble from nerd and Becca as long as Costa can stay conscious early here I expect his Jiu-Jitsu and his move to uh …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Melquizael Costa

Paul picks Melquizael Costa, citing his superior striking and range management. He notes that Nuerdanbieke has power but low volume and may rely on wrestling. Paul thinks Costa can win with volume if he keeps the fight standing, but is not confident due to Costa's gas tank issues.

"Mel Costa will also be the pick for me but not very confident in that pick."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Melquizael Costa

The MMA Guru picks Melquizael Costa because he believes Costa is better on the feet, with nasty front kicks, head kicks, and question mark kicks. He thinks Shayilan's ground game is not dominant enough to expose Costa's weaknesses, and that Shayilan's style of trading hooks and shooting double legs won't work. He notes both have lost to Steve Garcia.

"I think Malik quaz El Costa is better on the feet than shaan NM Beck and I don't think that shaan has that dominant of a ground game to expose the ground game of Malik wasel Costa"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Steve Garcia

KO (elbows) R2 1:01 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Steve Garcia	1	29 of 49	59%	41 of 66	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:46
Melquizael Costa	0	6 of 10	60%	20 of 25	2 of 10	20%	0	0	4:41

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Steve Garcia	0	4 of 11	36%	12 of 23	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
1	Melquizael Costa	0	5 of 7	71%	19 of 22	2 of 9	22%	0	4:41
2	Steve Garcia	1	25 of 38	65%	29 of 43	0 of 0	---	1	0:46
2	Melquizael Costa	0	1 of 3	33%	1 of 3	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Steve Garcia	29 of 49	59%	26 of 45	2 of 3	1 of 1	4 of 10	3 of 8	22 of 31
Melquizael Costa	6 of 10	60%	1 of 5	2 of 2	3 of 3	2 of 3	4 of 7	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Steve Garcia	4 of 11	36%	3 of 9	1 of 2	0 of 0	3 of 7	1 of 4	0 of 0
1	Melquizael Costa	5 of 7	71%	0 of 2	2 of 2	3 of 3	1 of 2	4 of 5	0 of 0
2	Steve Garcia	25 of 38	65%	23 of 36	1 of 1	1 of 1	1 of 3	2 of 4	22 of 31
2	Melquizael Costa	1 of 3	33%	1 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 1	0 of 2	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Melquizael Costa vs. Steve Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-275), Garcia (+225)

Round 1
The predominant method of victory for these two fighters—now competing at lightweight due to the short-notice nature of their rescheduled pairing—is the knockout. Referee Chris Tognoni should don his hard hat before going out against these two sluggers. “Mean Machine” Garcia (14-5, 3-2 UFC) has performed his last six victories via strikes, while LFA vet Costa (20-6, 1-1 UFC) has earned two of his last three wins by knockout. Before the fists fly, they meet together in a sporting manner. Garcia springs forward, but he pulls back before engaging. On his second advance, Garcia throws caution to the wind, winging big punches. Costa shimmies to the side and allows Garcia to push past him, and he hooks his leg around Garcia’s and tries to drag him down to the floor. Costa elects to lift Garcia up and slam him to the mat, but “Mean Machine” moves back up to his feet quickly. Costa clings to Garcia from behind relentlessly, and Garcia tries to defend with no-look elbows. Costa knees Garcia in the backside and upper thigh as he pressures his man, and Garcia responds with elbows on the thigh. Costa whips Garcia to a knee, and Garcia considers grabbing the fence but at the last second just points at it. Costa forces his man down to a knee again, but Garcia springs up with no ill effects. Costa continues to embrace the grind from behind, shutting down any offense from Garcia and forcing him to spend energy in strange exchanges. When Costa looks to get a hook in, Garcia shucks it off. Costa peppers with knees until scooping Garcia up and dumping him down once more. Garcia powers back upright, and he wiggles and wriggles but cannot escape. Costa trips Garcia out but is unable to keep him grounded for more than a second, and he stays in this position until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Garcia comes out of his corner angrily, and he swings violently and connects with a few of his shots. Costa responds as the two engage in a mad brawl, with punches and elbows flailing in all directions. Garcia wings a left and a right, catching Costa and knocking him down to the canvas. “Mean Machine” follows him to the mat and drives down a vicious elbow, splitting Costa wide open, and Costa is in a bad way. Garcia smashes his man with fists and sharp elbows, and blood sprays around the canvas. Costa turns over and gives up his back, and Garcia snatches up a rear-naked choke. Perhaps due to the blood flow, Costa is able to slide out of the choke and turns to his back.
Garcia postures up, in full mount, and he demolishes “Melky” with three ruthless elbows. Tognoni halts the fight, with Costa out or very nearly out.
When Garcia dismounts his defeated adversary, Costa tries to take Tognoni down, and he is deep in on a single. Tognoni displays excellent takedown defense as officials flood the cage, with one very loud shouting at Costa to wake him back up. Costa realizes that he is trying to take down a referee and that the fight is over, and he surrenders.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Melquizael Costa R2 1:01 via KO (Elbows)

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Melquizael Costa

Cody picks Melquizael Costa. He notes that Costa is a volume puncher and Garcia is a knockout-or-bust fighter. Cody points out that Garcia has poor defense and gets rocked in his wins and losses. He thinks Costa's volume and durability will be key. Cody is suspicious that the line hasn't moved despite Garcia pulling out last week due to illness and moving up a weight class. He still favors Costa.

"I like Costa I'm playing Costa cost going to be high up there but it almost favors a little bit Garcia a little bit better"

Bookie Beatdown

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Melquizael Costa

Paul picks Melquizael Costa. He notes that he liked Costa last week and nothing has changed. Paul points out that Garcia has a history of missing weight and was sick last week, but now fights at lightweight without cutting weight. He thinks Garcia's power is a threat but Costa's volume and durability should win out. Paul is not taking Garcia just because of the circumstances.

"him getting sick and pulling out of a fight last week did not cause me to change my pick this week to suddenly take him so no no not taking Steve Garcia gonna stick with M Costa"

Bookie Beatdown

View all 10 fights

Expert Picks (2)

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

"I'm definitely going to pick him. But I think it stands to be a little bit of a lumpier kind of fight."

MMA Vivisection

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Christian Rodriguez

"I'm definitely gotta pick him. He's just a much better fighter than Costa."

MMA Vivisection

Comments (1)

brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Costa was too big for him. Class fighters, unreal jiu jistsu. great leg trips by rodriguez