Career Averages - Brandon Moreno
Career Averages - Steve Erceg
Brandon Moreno
Steve Erceg
Brandon Moreno - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 79 of 168 | 47% | 134 of 229 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 7:20 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 97 of 205 | 47% | 136 of 245 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 18 of 45 | 40% | 18 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 24 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 42 of 83 | 50% | 42 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 31 of 56 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 20 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 31 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 29 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 29 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 27 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 79 of 168 | 47% | 51 of 133 | 15 of 21 | 13 of 14 | 69 of 154 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 97 of 205 | 47% | 60 of 160 | 18 of 24 | 19 of 21 | 92 of 198 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 19 of 40 | 47% | 14 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 18 of 45 | 40% | 10 of 33 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 24 of 54 | 44% | 13 of 40 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 42 of 83 | 50% | 30 of 70 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 39 of 78 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 16 of 40 | 40% | 13 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 17 of 44 | 38% | 11 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Brandon Moreno | 9 of 15 | 60% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 8 of 14 | 57% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Brandon Moreno | 11 of 19 | 57% | 6 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 12 of 19 | 63% | 5 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Moreno (-230); Kavanagh (+190)
Round 1
Remember, fight fans, this was not the initially intended main event for UFC Mexico. Rather than Moreno (23-9-2, 11-6-2 UFC) taking on Asu Almabayev—acceptable under today’s standards for a main event—he draws Kavanagh (9-1, 2-1 UFC), who just lost his last fight by knockout. Taking the opportunity few else would or could, the Brit falls upward into a pivotal matchup and tries as hard as he can to not drop two in a row. The final official for the evening is referee Herb Dean, who issues final instructions and elicits a fist bump from the two. It’s on with the flyweight show.
Kavanagh moves to the middle of the cage, allowing Moreno to swat at him with range-finding jabs and a looping right hook. Kavanagh takes a funny step when getting kicked, and he gathers himself quickly. Moreno keeps peppering jabs, and he loads up on a left hook. Kavanagh dances back, and he aims a front kick to the chest. Moreno fakes a level change to go upstairs, and he swings wildly and reaches his target at the end of a left. Kavanagh clips Moreno coming in with a right hand that reddens up the former champ’s eye. Kavanagh chops at the front leg, and Moreno’s lead leg is welted and turning red quickly. Kavanagh splits the guard with a right hand down the pipe, and Moreno triples up on a jab that leads to an overhand right.
Kavanagh puts a front kick to the chest and works on the inside of his foe’s front leg, and he speedily raises up a high kick that slaps “The Assassin Baby” in the face. Moreno reaches out with a right that knocks Kavanagh’s hair back, and he rushes in to score a few more. Kavanagh backs him off with a short flurry, spins with a back kick and falls over when comboing it into a high kick. Moreno lets him stand back up because he is having fun striking, and he connects at the end of his punches. Kavanagh leans back but not far enough, so Moreno is able to contact him. Kavanagh’s right hook marks up Moreno’s left eye, who pays it no mind and kicks back at his adversary. Kavanagh pitter patters several punches off the guard, and Moreno’s counter is sharp and accurate. Kavanagh stings Moreno with a left, and Moreno looks around for a moment to gather his thoughts. The first round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh
Round 2
A clap of hands opens the round, one in which Kavanagh starts with a front kick aimed at the face. Moreno replies with a one-two down Broadway, and he has his leg entangled in a kick exchange and tumbles to the mat. Kavanagh does not want to go to the ground with him, so he measures his foe and readies his jab. Kavanagh keeps beating on the front leg, inspiring Moreno to kick him back on the same spot. Moreno goes down for a single, and Kavanagh pushes him away and rattles off punches that bound into the guard. Kavanagh pecks away as Moreno looks for an opening to attack, and he preemptively counters Moreno with a left that stuns the former champ for a second. Kavanagh stabs the body with a kick with his toes pointed straight out at the target, and he slides back from additional offense aimed his way. Moreno appears to be irritated by the kicks beating up his front leg, and he lumbers forward looping right hands at his foe.
Moreno thumps the front leg with a kick and follows Kavanagh around, who is jabbing him square in the nose repeatedly. Moreno loads up with a left hand and is wide open for the counter, and Kavanagh makes sure to make him pay with a monstrous combination that busts the former champion up repeatedly and makes him stumble courtesy of a flush head kick. Moreno backs off to shake out the cobwebs, so Kavanagh slaps kick after kick on the Mexican’s wounded limb. Kavanagh has also busted Moreno’s nose open in the process, with blood leaking out of both nostrils. The Brit checks a kick and fires off a straight one-two followed by a piercing teep kick. Moreno quadruples his jab, snapping the head back each time, and he cracks Kavanagh with a leaping left hand. Moreno follows with a heavy right, getting Kavanagh’s attention and slowing his attack for a time. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh
Round 3
Gloves are touched as the athletes reach Round 3, and Moreno flashes his jab several times and lashes out with his right. Kavanagh hammers his front leg, one that is badly welted at this point, and paws out with jabs. He hops away from the looping right hand of “The Assassin Baby” and jams the body with a front kick, keeping Moreno at bay for the time being. Moreno reaches out with a big right hand, and he follows with a left and then another to boot. Moreno turns it on with a flurry that Kavanagh largely evades, and Kavanagh replies with a few speedy punches up high. Kavanagh drives home a one-two on the jaw, and he is again reached with the right hand from the ex-champ. Moreno flicks out his jab a few times and paws away the ones aimed at him, and he puts a little more steam behind a left hand that misses but leads to a takedown shot.
The Mexican fighter considers a single, and he transitions to wrap his arms around his opponent’s waist so that he can hoist him to the floor. Kavanagh keeps his balance, so Moreno starts jackhammering him on the thigh in the same spot time and again. Moreno breaks off and partially lands a left on the break, and Kavanagh slips when pitching a front kick. Moreno scores a one-two and shells up to defend a high kick. Moreno connects with two punches and lets a bunch bang into his gloves, rushing his opponent but taking a hard kick on the way in. Moreno targets the body with the ball of his foot, and he swats out a left and leans back on the expected counter. Moreno pursues a single, backing Kavanagh to the wall but not grounding him. Moreno knees the thigh when leaning on his foe, spamming them until time runs out in the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 4
Having reached the championship rounds, the two share a high-five. Moreno, who is well-schooled and conditioned for five rounds, pushes the pace right out of the gate. He punches his way into a takedown shot, grabbing hold of Kavanagh’s left leg for his single attempt. Kavanagh defends it with his back to the fence, but this leads to Moreno pressing him against the cage as if he were trying to squeeze him through the chain links like a Play-Do mold. Moreno puts some mustard into his repeated knees to the inner thigh, hitting one of two spots time and time again with Kavanagh unable to get out. The damage might not be significant, but he nullifies the unranked fighter in this position. Kavanagh starts to smack Moreno with short, ineffective right hands, and Moreno doggedly pursues the takedown. Dean asks for them to work, so Kavanagh tries to take things into his own hands and step out of it. Moreno follows all the while, exerting heavy pressure while constantly threatening with a trip or other level change.
Dean wants them to keep working, and once more it is up to Kavanagh to do something, so he does. Kavanagh escapes out the side, and he slams a kick on the calf. A second from the Brit makes Moreno limp, his poker face gone as he tries to put weight on his damaged limb. Moreno pushes out his jabs, and he swings recklessly with two punches as Kavanagh slips away. Kavanagh works the body with a kick, and he tries a low kick but has his leg caught when Moreno tries to take the fight down. Moreno settles for more cage squeezing, replete with knee strikes to the thigh. Dean calls multiple times for more activity, so Moreno frames off and jacks Kavanagh in the jaw with a left hand. Kavanagh spins with a wheel kick, bouncing it into the guard, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 5
It could be all tied up in the final round, and the two hug it out before finishing their business. At best, Moreno is 2-2, but Kavanagh could easily be up three rounds to one. Kavanagh leads off with a low kick, and he evades the one-two aimed at his face but is in the crosshairs of the takedown attempt. Moreno leans as heavily as he can once he plants Kavanagh’s back on the fence, comfortably engaging in a wall-and-stall style that would not thrill most viewers. The knees to the thigh may be effective and are scoring, but the damage is less-than-stellar. Dean keeps telling Moreno he will break them up if he does not do more, and Moreno eats up all the time he can in this position. Dean splits them up, and Moreno is leaking and practically sprays blood out of his mouth when he exhales. Kavanagh smacks the front leg and then goes up high with his same leg, and Moreno stays right in front of him. Moreno ducks a punch and clashes heads with his foe, avoid a flying knee so he can engage in more clinchery.
Moreno is more than happy to work on the thigh with his knees and little else, until he changes his strategy to lace his legs between his foe’s to trip him up. The younger man keeps his balance and holds on, defending a standing back take by putting his back against the wall again. Kavanagh lashes out with an elbow to force a break, and he drills Moreno in the gut with a solid kick. Moreno gets off a pair of jabs and takes another front kick, and Kavanagh sits down on several punches while Moreno is in front of him. Moreno connects with a flush left hand and forces the tie-up, and Dean wastes no time asking for Moreno to fight more. Moreno brings up a knee to the chest this time, when otherwise pressuring Kavanagh with all his might. Kavanagh tries for a trip, but Moreno breaks off. Kavanagh swings one final spinning back kick to the body, and the grueling five-rounder finally comes to an end. Scores could be all over the map here, but more than anything, it proves that Kavanagh can hang among the top echelon of his division after all.
When the cards were read, the 49-46 card gave up who got the nod, because there would be no reasonable explanation for Moreno to win four rounds. The crowd is understandably silent, having watched their hometown hero lose a bloody upset to a foreign up-and-comer on relatively short notice. The victor is nothing but gracious, remembering his fallen father while thanking his team and family first. He suggests that life is made up of a few legendary moments, and that he just “beat a legend.” Kavanagh offers a respectful callout to anyone in the division, and commentator Michael Bisping is trying to hide the smile on his face from ear to ear. Next week, there is a belt* on the line at UFC 326, and we will be there for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh (48-47 Kavanagh)
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Moreno (48-47 Moreno)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh (48-47 Kavanagh)
The Official Result
Lone’er Kavanagh def. Brandon Moreno via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
Angelo hesitantly picks Brandon Moreno, acknowledging that Lone'er Kavanagh is fast and accurate and could give Moreno trouble early. He notes Moreno's five-round experience and toughness as key advantages, expecting him to outlast Kavanagh who may fade. He admits if it were a three-round fight with a full camp, he would pick Kavanagh.
Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno, citing his hometown advantage, experience as a former champion, and step down in competition. He notes Kavanagh looked good in the first round against Charles Johnson but faded and got knocked out. Brady believes Moreno's cardio, pressure, and minute-winning ability will lead to a decision win, possibly a late finish if Kavanagh slows down.
Cody points out Moreno's recent stylistic changes, lack of wrestling, and potential decline. He highlights Kavanagh's speed and power, and the danger of an early knockout. Despite these concerns, he picks Moreno due to the difficulty of betting against him, but strongly advises live betting or hedging.
Connor agrees with Zane that Moreno should win, but he is slightly less confident due to Moreno's recent inconsistent performances. He notes that Moreno sometimes makes weird mistakes and that Kavanagh is a dangerous counterpuncher with speed and accuracy. However, Connor ultimately believes Moreno's experience and ability to pressure will be too much for Kavanagh, especially given Kavanagh's stamina concerns.
Daniel picks Brandon Moreno to win, citing his well-rounded skills and fight IQ. He notes Moreno's takedown advantage against Royval's poor takedown defense, but acknowledges Royval's danger on the feet with unorthodox strikes. He expects Moreno to exploit takedown defense and control the fight on the ground, though he warns that Moreno has been dropped in recent fights.
The host is betting on Moreno despite his decline, because the circumstances heavily favor him. Moreno has experience fighting in Mexico City, excellent cardio, and has never been knocked out. Kavanagh is inexperienced (10 pro fights), a volume striker with no knockout power, and is fighting on short notice at high altitude. The host believes Kavanagh would need to finish Moreno or win a clear decision, both unlikely. He plans to parlay Moreno with Zellhuber.
James believes Kavanagh is one of the best flyweights despite his loss to Charles Johnson, citing his speed, footwork, and counter-striking. He questions Moreno's consistency and recent performance, noting Moreno's age and potential decline. James sees value in Kavanagh at +210 odds, predicting Moreno may not push the pace needed to exploit Kavanagh's cardio concerns.
The host picks Brandon Moreno inside the distance, expecting a round 4 or 5 finish. He notes Moreno's experience, cardio, and durability, and believes Kavanagh will fade in the later rounds due to altitude and short notice. He is surprised the line moved to -225 and considers it a great value. He predicts a late TKO or submission.
Paul acknowledges Moreno's experience and cardio advantage, especially at altitude. He notes Moreno's wrestling and submission game are superior, and expects Moreno to take over in later rounds. He is puzzled by the money coming in on Kavanagh and recommends Moreno as a parlay piece, but suggests live betting for better value.
The MMA Guru picks Brandon Moreno, noting that Lone'er Kavanagh has a cardio issue and gasses after about 7 minutes. He argues that Moreno is hard to finish early and that Kavanagh's only path to victory is a first-round TKO, which is unlikely at Mexico City altitude. He predicts a late-rounds TKO for Moreno, possibly in rounds 4 or 5.
Zane picks Moreno because Kavanagh is not ready for this level of competition, especially on short notice and at altitude. He notes that Kavanagh's gas tank was a problem against Charles Johnson, and Moreno's experience and ability to set a comfortable tempo will likely overwhelm him. Zane also mentions that Moreno has a reach advantage and is fighting at home, which should help him make better decisions.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 45 of 65 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 4:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 18 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 3:33 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 26 of 39 | 66% | 27 of 40 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 9 of 17 | 52% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 28 of 48 | 58% | 23 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 19 | 2 of 4 | 19 of 25 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 7 of 13 | 53% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 26 of 39 | 66% | 22 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 23 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-142), Moreno (+120)
Round 1
Mark Smith is the referee. Taira opens up with a quick and powerful right hand in what is a largely deliberate opening minute. Taira thinks about a shot, then resets and gets reversed on his takedown attempt. Moreno is on his back with a triangle locked in early. This is bad news for Taira to be trapped in this maneuver so early in the fight. Fortunately for the Japanese prospect, Moreno doesn’t quite have the position he needs to really apply the squeeze. Taira has Moreno stacked and he lifts and slams his foe down. That might have allowed Moreno to adjust the hold and tighten it. Taira seems to be OK with a little more than a minute remaining. Taira tries to fire some punches while in the awkward position. Moreno finally loses the hold in the waning seconds. Taira grabs a front headlock and they separate before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 2
Moreno pumps a jab but Taira answers with an uppercut. Moreno with a low kick and he follows that with a combination, landing a crafty lead hook. Taira drops low for a takedown, but Moreno sprawls effectively and counters. Taira doesn’t give up, and he closes the distance ands a trip takedown moments later. The Japanese prospect takes the back, locks in a body triangle and begins to tee off with ground-and-pound from back control. Taira flattens the former champ out and continues to unload with unanswered punches. Moreno is still moving from the bottom, but Smith has seen enough. As Taira tosses his mouthguard in celebration, Moreno questions if the stoppage might have been premature. It won’t matter, as Taira becomes the first person to finish Moreno in professional MMA competition.
The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. Brandon Moreno via TKO (Punches) R2 2:24
Angelo picks Brandon Moreno, citing his experience, well-rounded skills, and relentless pace. He believes Moreno's striking will be a problem for Taira and that Taira's takedowns are not good enough to keep Moreno down. He notes that Alex Perez outstruck Taira before his knee injury. Angelo is surprised that Moreno is an underdog and considers betting if the odds become favorable.
Big Brady picks Tatsuro Taira, citing his elite grappling and control, and believes he will take Moreno down and win rounds. He acknowledges Moreno's striking advantage but expects Taira's takedowns to be decisive. He predicts Taira wins by decision.
Cody picks Moreno, highlighting his experience, durability, and scrambling ability. He notes that Moreno has never been finished as a pro and has fought the best in the division. He believes Taira is not a refined product and relies on getting the back, which Moreno's scrambling will neutralize. He expects Moreno to outwork Taira and win by decision.
Connor picks Moreno, citing his experience and technical edge. He notes that Taira struggles to set up takedowns and relies on opponents overextending, while Moreno has strong wrestling defense and can hit his own takedowns. Connor acknowledges that Moreno sometimes fights stupidly, but even then he has a good chance. He believes Moreno's methodical pressure and straight punches will be effective against Taira's limited striking arsenal.
Daniel picks Taira, impressed by his back-taking ability and heart shown in the Royval fight. He believes Taira's grappling is elite and that Moreno may struggle with it, similar to how Pantoja took Moreno's back. He sees Taira's standup improving and thinks he can win a competitive fight, possibly by controlling rounds with back takes.
Lucrative James favors Moreno on the feet and believes his takedown defense is better than Brandon Royval's, which will help him avoid Taira's grappling. He notes Moreno's preparation with Mikey Musumeci and thinks Moreno's experience in five-round fights gives him an edge in a three-round contest. He expects a close split decision but picks Moreno to edge it.
The host believes Taira will continue his winning ways by putting Moreno in bad positions. He notes that Moreno is not as good a scrambler as Brandon Royval, which will keep him in bad positions for at least two rounds, allowing Taira to win on the scorecards.
Paul agrees with Cody, citing Moreno's advantages in striking, experience, durability, and cardio. He notes that Taira's only top-tier fight was against Brandon Royval, where he lost and was outstruck. He believes Moreno's leg kicks and scrambling will be key, and he picks Moreno by decision.
The Guru picks Tatsuro Taira over Brandon Moreno, citing Taira's back-taking ability and Moreno's recent decline. He notes Taira's grappling and range striking will be effective in a three-round fight. The Guru predicts a 29-28 decision win for Taira.
Zane also picks Moreno, emphasizing that Taira's takedown entries are telegraphed and that Moreno's wrestling is far superior to Royval's, who still managed to defend takedowns. He notes that Taira's striking is limited to a 1-2 with occasional kicks, while Moreno can apply pressure from range. Zane worries about Moreno's tendency to fight recklessly but believes his advantages in experience and grappling outweigh that risk.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 89 of 176 | 50% | 95 of 182 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 116 of 279 | 41% | 119 of 282 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 21 of 40 | 52% | 21 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 25 of 68 | 36% | 25 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 27 of 48 | 56% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 25 of 57 | 43% | 26 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 22 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 19 of 56 | 33% | 21 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 89 of 176 | 50% | 59 of 138 | 18 of 25 | 12 of 13 | 87 of 174 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 116 of 279 | 41% | 90 of 237 | 11 of 24 | 15 of 18 | 115 of 278 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 21 of 40 | 52% | 14 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 25 of 68 | 36% | 18 of 57 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 21 of 46 | 45% | 14 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 27 of 48 | 56% | 20 of 39 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 10 of 24 | 41% | 3 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 20 of 50 | 40% | 16 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Brandon Moreno | 19 of 35 | 54% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 25 of 57 | 43% | 19 of 49 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Brandon Moreno | 18 of 31 | 58% | 13 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 19 of 56 | 33% | 17 of 50 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Moreno (-238), Erceg (+195)
Round 1
The only ranked matchup—meaning, fight between two fighters with numbers next to their names—is in the main event, and it should be a fun one. Former champ Moreno (22-8-2, 10-5-2 UFC) turned things around with a decision over Amir Albazi a few months ago, while Erceg (12-3, 3-2 UFC) has still not shaken the dust off after unsuccessfully vying for the flyweight strap. The triumphant man may position himself better towards another championship opportunity, while the defeated’s stock will take a serious hit. Referee Herb Dean brings the two 125ers to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and have the two bump their fists. They do. It’s on with the show. Jabs are outstretched to one another’s general direction, and Moreno commits first with a looping left hand. When the first misses, he fires it again and bangs it into Erceg’s temple. Moreno gets behind his jab, and he checks a kick aimed at his front leg. The lunging left gets through again, and he follows it with a left to the liver and a kick to the same spot. Moreno’s left side continues to get through, as he again blitzes with a left. Erceg sticks him with a few jabs and a right hand, and the low kick at the end of the combo is checked. Moreno pecks out a jab and a left hook, and Erceg walks him down to throw hands for a moment before splitting off. Moreno’s leaping left hand sends Erceg staggering off to the side, and he gathers his thoughts and pins a few punches on the raised guard. When Moreno’s left is established, he hurls out a right to surprise his opponent. Erceg drills him in the ribs with a pair of punches, and he comes up an inch or two shy of a snappy front kick. Chants in support of Moreno practically do not cease, with the crowd excited to celebrate each and every moment of success for their fighter. Moreno gets in again, and the audience booms in delight. Erceg gets off jabs and low kicks, but the power is firmly in the favor of the former champ. Erceg sneaks in a left shovel uppercut, and Moreno sits down with a body kick in response. Erceg flashes his jab a few more times, planting it at the top of the head. Moreno clacks him with another big overhand right, and a second shakes him up and forces him to jump away and shake it out. Moreno uses the opportunity to chop down the front leg, and jabs are where the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 2
Erceg rushes out of his corner to take the center of the Octagon, where he paws away jabs from his opponent and pitches a head kick up high. Moreno blocks and blasts Erceg with a right hand, and Erceg scoots away to not stay on the gunnery range. They crash together, and Erceg drives home a right hand and steps in with a knee. Erceg slips a punch to deliver an uppercut on the chin, and he tries to skirt away but takes two nasty leg kicks. Moreno steps in to fake like he will kick a third time, and goes up top with a left hand. Moreno dings Erceg with a second left, thwarting any attempt for Erceg to tie things up. Moreno times a counter right to knock Erceg back from a kick, and both men chain solid combinations together on one another. Moreno kicks the leg, and Erceg peppers out a jab. Moreno’s own jab allows him to get in and get off two left hooks, and he ducks down to mess with Erceg by grabbing his ankle. Erceg regains his balance and flicks the jab out, and he just misses a right hand and rushes away but gets kicked on the way out. Moreno drills Erceg with two clean hooks, and Erceg stands straight up and wonders what the number was of that bus. When he blinks out the damage, Erceg sticks his fists to the guard of his foe a few times. Moreno beats his man to the punch with a jab, and he lets a front kick go by so he can rip a left hand up top. Moreno capitalizes on the success with a low kick, and both men score single heavy hooks. Chins have been tested and answered the call well, with Erceg trying his foe’s out with a few punches and a high kick. Erceg hits a fade-back right hand, and the round closes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Round 3
The round opens with Moreno faking to reach down for a level change. Erceg is not buying it, and jabs him in the face. Moreno lunges forward with a left hook, and he raises his guard just in time to block a kick. Moreno hits air on a pair of looping punches, with Erceg starting to see the power strikes coming. Moreno jabs the body and ignores a front kick that goes by, bobbing and weaving to move with jabs and not take anything flush. Erceg drives his opponent back with an uppercut, and Moreno reaches and barely lands at the end of his right hand. Erceg is slicker and more elusive than the last two rounds, but he still gets reached with kicks that are actively targeting him. Moreno flirts with checking kicks when Erceg kicks low, and he kicks the former challenger in the side. Erceg plants his fists on Moreno’s nose, kicking him in the front leg to mix things up. The fighters slip when trying to dodge one another, and then regain their footing as Erceg plants his feet to put a few punches together. Erceg sets up a knee to the body and backs off to avoid the counter, and he surprises Moreno with a front kick up the middle. Moreno fakes high to kick low, and he reaches with a few left hooks that continue to miss the mark. Erceg is more content to touch while Moreno loads up, but neither man is connecting at a particular high volume. One solid strike from Erceg comes in the form of a knee to the body, and as the round time expires, Moreno shrugs his shoulders.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 4
Having reached the championship rounds, the two pick up where they left off with jab attacks and kicks. Erceg aims to split the guard while Moreno wants to dig beneath or around it. Moreno successfully loops a single left around the defense of his opponent, and he pops Erceg with a second to force Erceg to stumble away. The Aussie is no worse for wear, wide-eyed to watch out for Moreno walking him down. Erceg forces Moreno to stay honest, keeping the jab in his face when not backing off to defend himself. Erceg times a front kick on the belly, hurting Moreno for a moment as the Mexican staggers back and forth confusedly. Moreno bites down on his mouthpiece and lunges into action, landing flush until Erceg kicks him upside the head. Another front kick from Erceg gives him a moment to breathe, as Moreno bears down on him looping heavy shots at him. Erceg jabs, follows the jabs and has to guard the oncoming fire from the former champ. Moreno starts talking to him, and Erceg grins when taking a few punches on the chin. Moreno goes high and then to the ribs, with his left hook drawing blood on the side of Erceg’s right eye. Erceg pays it no mind and kicks Moreno in the melon. Moreno laughs it off and swings back, and he keeps talking while throwing hands. Erceg defends from an overhand right, and he has his head kick pushed back while Moreno chases him around the cage. Moreno jabs the body, and the fans in the building start booing the fighters for their lack of heavy engagement after three rounds. Moreno shoots in for a single to quiet the masses momentarily, and he pulls Erceg to his seat and forces Erceg to scramble right before the bell. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 5
The crowd is largely on its feet as the fighters signal to them to give it up. The athletes are all smiles, and they get down to business by punching one another in the face in the final period of the fight. Moreno loads up on big right and lefts, and he lets Erceg try to do the same so he can make the Aussie hit air. Moreno sways and moves from a combo to let fly a left hand, torqueing his body in unusual ways to keep from being struck. Moreno winds up with a nasty leg kick, and a second is checked. Moreno jumps forward and possibly goes for a level change, but Erceg is having none of it and puts his hands in the former champ’s face. Erceg lifts up a kick that bangs into the raised guard, and when Moreno stings him, Erceg slips back. Moreno charges, ripping punches and hammering Erceg with a high kick. Erceg shells up and bounces off the fencing to reset, but he finds that Moreno is still right in front of him like always. An Erceg head kick mildly bumps into the guard, and Moreno reaches him with a right hook. Doubled jabs from the former beltholder lead to a right hand, and Erceg steels himself and drills Moreno in the chin. Erceg pushes out his jab, and Moreno does not budge an inch even when tagged. Moreno gives a bit of ground to lure Erceg in towards him, and when Erceg does not bite, he meanders forward. Erceg looses a head kick, and Moreno grabs it and hurls the former title challenger to his back. With 50 seconds to go, Moreno looks for a guard pass, positioning Erceg in an uncomfortable posture nearly doing a split on his back. Moreno successfully leaps over to the side with seconds to spare, and he jams down elbows until the horn concludes this five-round entanglement. Moreno stands and screams, waving off the doctor and pacing back and forth in anticipation of the result. Barring something unusual, Mexican fighters will end the night way ahead of foreign adversaries. Meanwhile, Moreno is about to pick up his first win in the Octagon on home soil. The former champion, who is now officially on a win streak, calls for an opportunity to compete at UFC 320 in Guadalajara, Mexico, this September. If he makes it on that event, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno (49-46 Moreno)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno (49-46 Moreno)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno (49-46 Moreno)
The Official Result
Brandon Moreno def. Steve Erceg via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
Connor argues that Steve Erceg has been rushed into tough fights, facing Pantoja, Kai Kara-France, and now Moreno without proper development. He highlights Erceg's defensive boxing flaws, particularly his lack of head movement and tendency to overcommit. Connor believes Moreno's experience and technical superiority will exploit these weaknesses, leading to a Moreno win.
James picks Brandon Moreno to win, citing Moreno's vast experience advantage (over 30 fights vs 15 for Erceg), superior durability, better cardio, and higher fight IQ. He notes Erceg has been knocked out recently and has shown poor decision-making in late rounds, as seen against Pantoja. James acknowledges the elevation factor but believes Moreno's gas tank is more reliable, especially late. He predicts a late stoppage or more likely a decision win for Moreno, and mentions that if there's value, it lies with Erceg as an underdog.
Zane agrees with Connor that Erceg is being mishandled by the UFC, taking too many high-level fights in a row. He notes that Erceg's takedown attempt against Pantoja was a rookie mistake, and that he hasn't had time to develop. Zane sees Moreno as a tough test that Erceg isn't ready for, and picks Moreno to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 132 of 317 | 41% | 132 of 317 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 63 of 235 | 26% | 63 of 236 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 29 of 67 | 43% | 29 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 6 of 33 | 18% | 6 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 31 of 68 | 45% | 31 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 12 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 22 of 70 | 31% | 22 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 20 of 66 | 30% | 20 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 32 of 76 | 42% | 32 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 9 of 54 | 16% | 9 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 132 of 317 | 41% | 113 of 284 | 12 of 22 | 7 of 11 | 128 of 309 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Amir Albazi | 63 of 235 | 26% | 50 of 207 | 6 of 14 | 7 of 14 | 63 of 234 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 18 of 36 | 50% | 16 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Amir Albazi | 16 of 39 | 41% | 12 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 29 of 67 | 43% | 25 of 58 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 5 | 29 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Amir Albazi | 6 of 33 | 18% | 4 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 31 of 68 | 45% | 23 of 59 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 28 of 64 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Amir Albazi | 12 of 43 | 27% | 9 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Brandon Moreno | 22 of 70 | 31% | 19 of 64 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 22 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Amir Albazi | 20 of 66 | 30% | 16 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 20 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Brandon Moreno | 32 of 76 | 42% | 30 of 70 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 72 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Amir Albazi | 9 of 54 | 16% | 9 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Amir Albazi to pull off the upset, citing Moreno's recent flat performances and loss of aura. He thinks Albazi can time takedowns and sneak out a win if Moreno looks flat-footed again. He wishes Albazi were more active with pressure and volume, like Brandon Royval. He notes the year layoff for Albazi and uncertainty about Moreno's form, so he will avoid betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno to win by decision. He questions Albazi's resume, noting his best win is a controversial decision over Kai Kara-France. Brady thinks Moreno's scrambling will neutralize Albazi's takedowns, and on the feet, Moreno is the better striker with better volume and cardio. He also cites Moreno's activity and experience in five-round fights.
Cody picks Brandon Moreno, citing his wrestling advantage over Albazi, who has only 33% takedown accuracy and 40% takedown defense. He notes Moreno's volume striking and five-round experience, but acknowledges the risk of Moreno being unmotivated after his partial retirement. He believes Moreno's reinvigorated version will win a decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Amir Albazi to upset Brandon Moreno. He believes Moreno is at a crossroads after losing the belt twice and showing signs of decline, while Albazi is in his prime and has improved significantly since his neck surgery. Vreeland notes that Albazi is a plus-150 underdog and expects a close, competitive fight where he favors the younger, hungrier fighter. He also mentions that betting against Moreno at dog odds has historically worked for him.
Lucrative James picks Amir Albazi to win by decision, citing Moreno's decline in recent fights and Albazi's control time advantage. He notes Moreno looked washed against Pantoja and Royval, while Albazi is undefeated in the UFC and has strong grappling. He believes Albazi's trajectory is higher and that Moreno's best days are behind him.
Moreno looked un-Moreno-like in his last performance, but the layoff will do wonders. He has good defensive work against wrestlers, which will allow him to keep the fight standing where he has the striking and cardio advantage, battering Albazi in three or four of the five rounds and winning on the scorecards.
Paul agrees with Cody, pointing out that Albazi's takedown defense is a red flag after being taken down twice by Kai Kara-France. He emphasizes Moreno's superior competition and durability, and believes Moreno's volume and wrestling will lead to a decision win. He also notes that Moreno's chin has held up and he's fought the best in the division.
The Guru picks Brandon Moreno over Amir Albazi, citing Albazi's long layoff and severe injuries (broken spine, neck surgery). He believes Moreno's experience and five-round cardio will be key, and he doubts Albazi can hold Moreno down or out-strike him. He predicts a close decision win for Moreno, 3-2 rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 112 of 211 | 53% | 119 of 219 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 145 of 510 | 28% | 177 of 556 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 12 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 18 of 87 | 20% | 22 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 17 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 25 of 79 | 31% | 26 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 29 of 58 | 50% | 29 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 49 of 161 | 30% | 60 of 179 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 5 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 36 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 41 of 140 | 29% | 57 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 112 of 211 | 53% | 48 of 127 | 37 of 51 | 27 of 33 | 103 of 191 | 7 of 17 | 2 of 3 |
| Brandon Moreno | 145 of 510 | 28% | 97 of 437 | 38 of 54 | 10 of 19 | 142 of 504 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 15 of 23 | 65% | 6 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Moreno | 12 of 43 | 27% | 6 of 31 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 11 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 22 of 45 | 48% | 13 of 34 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Brandon Moreno | 18 of 87 | 20% | 7 of 66 | 8 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 18 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 17 of 31 | 54% | 7 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Brandon Moreno | 25 of 79 | 31% | 13 of 61 | 8 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 24 of 76 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Brandon Royval | 29 of 58 | 50% | 7 of 27 | 13 of 20 | 9 of 11 | 28 of 54 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Moreno | 49 of 161 | 30% | 37 of 147 | 11 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 48 of 159 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Brandon Royval | 29 of 54 | 53% | 15 of 34 | 10 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 26 of 46 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Moreno | 41 of 140 | 29% | 34 of 132 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 41 of 140 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Moreno, citing his pace, toughness, and improvement since their last fight. He believes Moreno is better everywhere and will eventually break Royval, likely in the fourth or fifth round. He notes Moreno already won this fight once and will do it again at home.
Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno to win by decision. He notes that Moreno has never been finished in 30 fights, which is crucial against a finisher like Royval. He believes Moreno has more paths to win, especially by taking the fight to the mat where Royval has poor takedown defense (40%). He thinks Moreno can control Royval on the ground and potentially submit him, but leans toward a decision. He questions Royval's ability to win a decision or finish Moreno.
Cody picks Moreno, citing Moreno's cast-iron chin, takedown ability, and the fact that Royval is coming in on short notice after a five-round war with Pantoja eight weeks ago. He notes Royval's takedown defense is a serious problem and that Moreno already beat him once. He acknowledges the line is justifiable and is not playing contrarian.
The host expects Moreno to replicate his first fight strategy by using his wrestling advantage to control Royval on the ground. He notes Moreno's good submission defense against Royval's aggressive style. Even if the fight stays standing, Moreno is the more technical striker. He predicts Moreno will grind out a decision victory.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Moreno. He highlights Moreno's cast-iron durability as kryptonite to Royval's game, and notes that Moreno's ability to mix in takedowns will secure rounds in front of a hometown crowd. He also mentions Royval's short-notice turnaround and the altitude disadvantage, though Royval trains in Denver.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 147 of 245 | 60% | 167 of 265 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 3 | 4:01 |
| Brandon Moreno | 1 | 129 of 274 | 47% | 161 of 323 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 8:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 22 of 32 | 68% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Brandon Moreno | 1 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 42 of 75 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 2 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 41 of 77 | 53% | 41 of 77 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 33 of 74 | 44% | 36 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 26 of 47 | 55% | 29 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 0:37 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 25 of 52 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 4 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 31 of 48 | 64% | 34 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:24 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 23 of 56 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:04 | |
| 5 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 27 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 35 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 147 of 245 | 60% | 133 of 231 | 13 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 128 of 220 | 12 of 14 | 7 of 11 |
| Brandon Moreno | 129 of 274 | 47% | 106 of 247 | 20 of 22 | 3 of 5 | 104 of 239 | 13 of 21 | 12 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 22 of 32 | 68% | 20 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Moreno | 28 of 50 | 56% | 23 of 43 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 37 | 4 of 8 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Alexandre Pantoja | 41 of 77 | 53% | 37 of 73 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 38 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
| Brandon Moreno | 33 of 74 | 44% | 27 of 67 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Alexandre Pantoja | 26 of 47 | 55% | 24 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 |
| Brandon Moreno | 23 of 48 | 47% | 14 of 39 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 | |
| 4 | Alexandre Pantoja | 31 of 48 | 64% | 27 of 44 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 39 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 2 |
| Brandon Moreno | 20 of 50 | 40% | 18 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 41 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexandre Pantoja | 27 of 41 | 65% | 25 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Moreno | 25 of 52 | 48% | 24 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Moreno but disagrees with the 2-to-1 odds, thinking Pantoja has a clear striking advantage. He notes Moreno's pace, wrestling improvements, and takedowns as key factors. Pantoja is durable and a good grappler, but has been beaten by wrestlers. He expects a dogfight and advises against parlaying Moreno.
Big Brady picks Alexandre Pantoja to win a close decision. He notes that Pantoja is 2-0 against Moreno, but those fights were years ago. He believes Pantoja is the better striker with more power and better grappling, and he expects Pantoja to win the early rounds. However, he is concerned about Pantoja's cardio in a five-round fight, as Moreno has proven he can go 25 minutes. He thinks Pantoja wins rounds 1-3 and loses 4-5, making it a split decision. He says the line makes no sense and that Pantoja is live.
Cody picks Pantoja as an underdog, noting he has beaten Moreno twice before. He believes Pantoja's superior ground game and power shots can be effective early, while Moreno is hittable and gets rocked. He thinks Pantoja's takedown defense is poor but his submission threat is real. He prefers a live bet on Moreno later if he survives early rounds.
Connor picks Moreno but with hesitation, noting that Pantoja has won twice before and is a dangerous mauler. He acknowledges Moreno's development, especially his jab, but worries about Moreno's tendency to get into scrappy fights. Connor thinks Moreno's best path is to use his reach and avoid grappling exchanges, but he's not fully confident given Pantoja's proven ability.
Daniel Levi picks Pantoja, primarily because he values the plus-170 odds as a betting opportunity against any flyweight. He acknowledges that Moreno has improved his composure and had big moments in recent fights, but believes Pantoja's jiu-jitsu is the nastiest in the division and that he has never been finished. Levi notes that Pantoja has beaten Moreno twice before (submission and 30-26 decision), though those fights were years ago. He expresses concern about Pantoja's potential to fade in championship rounds due to his aggressive style, but is willing to take that risk at the underdog price.
James picks Pantoja at plus money, disagreeing with Moreno being a -200 favorite. He argues that skill-for-skill Pantoja is the favorite, and the perceived cardio disadvantage is overblown. He notes Pantoja has beaten Moreno twice, including a submission, and has pushed a hard pace in striking fights like against Figueiredo. He thinks the line is too wide and Pantoja has value.
Moreno has improved boxing, footwork, and cardio, which will be key in a five-round fight. Pantoja is dangerous early with power and BJJ, but fades late. Moreno will survive the early onslaught and overwhelm Pantoja in deep waters, likely getting a finish. Fight doesn't go to decision is the best prop.
Paul leans toward Moreno but is not confident at -190. He notes Moreno's experience in five-round fights and better cardio, while Pantoja has never gone five rounds. He thinks Moreno's volume and leg kicks will pay off in later rounds. He suggests waiting to bet Moreno live after the first round or two for a better price.
The MMA Guru picks Alexandre Pantoja to win by submission (rear-naked choke) late in the first round. He believes Pantoja's forward pressure and grappling will force Moreno to be hesitant and defensive. He notes that Moreno builds into fights and may be afraid of Pantoja's submission threat. He cites Pantoja's striking improvements and ability to take the back.
Zane picks Moreno, highlighting his improved jab and patience compared to their previous fights. He believes Moreno can use his reach and stick-and-move strategy to break Pantoja down, exploiting Pantoja's tendency to surge forward in straight lines. Zane is concerned about Moreno's occasional tendency to fight down to his opponent but thinks his technical evolution gives him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 24 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 48 of 74 | 64% | 85 of 111 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 6:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 17 of 24 | 70% | 18 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 14 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 19 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:10 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 48 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 19 of 43 | 44% | 8 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 48 of 74 | 64% | 37 of 61 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 52 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 17 of 24 | 70% | 13 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 10 of 20 | 50% | 6 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 17 of 25 | 68% | 13 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 4 of 12 | 33% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 14 of 25 | 56% | 11 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 14 |
Big Brady switches to Moreno after picking Figueiredo in the previous three fights. He cites Figueiredo's age (35), brutal weight cuts, and not training at Fight Ready as concerns. Moreno is younger, has better cardio, and has never been finished. He notes Moreno was winning minutes in the third fight before Figueiredo's knockdowns. He needs to see Figueiredo's weigh-in to decide on betting, but leans Moreno by decision.
Cody is confident in Brandon Moreno, citing Moreno's better wrestling, cardio, and ability to mix striking and grappling. He notes Figueiredo is older, has a tough weight cut, moved away from a great training camp, and has a year-long layoff. He believes Moreno's pace and pressure will be too much, and Figueiredo's best chance is counter-punching early. He also mentions Moreno's resilience and Mexican grit.
Connor picks Figueiredo, calling it a 'sadness hedge'—expecting the worst so it doesn't crush him. He thinks Figueiredo will find ways to sneak out rounds in a five-round fight, as he has done before. Connor notes Figueiredo's ability to land hard low kicks and his natural counter-punching, but acknowledges Moreno's dominance in the second fight and the uncertainty.
Paul leans towards Brandon Moreno but is cautious, noting he made a rule to bet the underdog in this series. He is very curious about Figueiredo's weight cut and age (35), and thinks speed and cardio are key at flyweight. He says he will wait for weigh-ins before betting, but ever so slightly leans Moreno. He acknowledges Figueiredo's power and toughness but thinks Moreno is the better fighter at this point.
The Guru picks Moreno for the quadrilogy, noting he won most of the minutes in the trilogy. Moreno has better striking, gas tank, and scrambles, while Figueiredo relies on explosive moments. Figueiredo is 35 with a tough weight cut and has been inactive for a year, while Moreno is younger and more active. The Guru predicts a clear decision win for Moreno, 49-46.
Zane picks Moreno, believing he looked like the better fighter in the third fight and lost mainly due to overconfidence. He thinks Moreno's adjustments are straightforward: stay busier with the jab, use footwork to avoid low kicks, and bring back his wrestling. Zane notes Figueiredo's defensive issues and psychological decline, and that Moreno's youth and resilience give him an edge.
Steve Erceg - Fight History
AJ backs Ramazan Temirov as a slight underdog, citing his explosive pressure, power striking, and impressive win over Charles Johnson. He notes Temirov's heart medication issue was doctor-prescribed, so no steroid recovery concerns. AJ thinks Temirov's physical strength and kickboxing will overwhelm Steve Erceg, who has shown durability but may get wobbled by Temirov's big shots.
AJ does not make a pick for this fight. He does not mention either fighter in the transcript.
Angelo is a self-proclaimed Steve Erceg hater and believes Erceg is overhyped, with his best win being years ago. He thinks Temirov has power, takedown defense, and pressure that will overwhelm Erceg. He notes that Erceg's wins are against low-level competition and that he nearly lost to older fighters.
Big Brady picks Erceg to win by decision, citing his superior striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He acknowledges Erceg's chinny nature and hittability as concerns against Temirov's power, but believes if Erceg avoids the early knockout, he will take over and win a decision. He notes Temirov's questionable cardio and volume, and that he relies solely on power.
James picks Temirov as an underdog, acknowledging it's a close fight. He thinks Temirov's early explosiveness and power could hurt Erceg, who has been hurt in many fights. He notes Erceg's path to victory via grappling and cardio late, but favors Temirov's knockout upside and early start. He predicts a KO win for Temirov, but admits Erceg has multiple paths to victory.
Temirov has raw power and speed, and will cut off the cage to find Erceg's chin. Erceg has durability issues and has been hurt before. Temirov likely knocks him out within two rounds, though his cardio may fade. The big shots early should be enough even if it goes to decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 90 of 261 | 34% | 93 of 265 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 136 of 254 | 53% | 136 of 254 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 39 of 91 | 42% | 40 of 93 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 27 of 78 | 34% | 28 of 79 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 47 of 85 | 55% | 47 of 85 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 24 of 92 | 26% | 25 of 93 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 65 of 114 | 57% | 65 of 114 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 90 of 261 | 34% | 44 of 191 | 11 of 27 | 35 of 43 | 87 of 255 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 136 of 254 | 53% | 122 of 236 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 129 of 245 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 39 of 91 | 42% | 20 of 57 | 5 of 15 | 14 of 19 | 39 of 89 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 24 of 55 | 43% | 21 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 27 of 78 | 34% | 10 of 56 | 4 of 8 | 13 of 14 | 24 of 75 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 47 of 85 | 55% | 44 of 82 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 81 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 24 of 92 | 26% | 14 of 78 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 10 | 24 of 91 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 65 of 114 | 57% | 57 of 102 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 64 of 112 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Elliott (21-13; 10-11 UFC), one of the flyweight division’s top spoilers over the last several years, looks to take that role once again in this featured clash with Perth’s own, “Astro Boy” Erceg (13-4; 4-3 UFC). Lukasz Bosacki is the referee on duty. Both men are in orthodox stance and Elliott immediately starts with his oddball striking attack, switching stances, hanging his hands at his waist and stabbing out with Jon Jones-style oblique kicks at Erceg’s lead leg. The contrast could not be much greater, as Erceg comes forward in his classic, composed upright stance. Through the first 90 seconds, the resulting collisions are sporadic and awkward; Erceg slides forward but refuses to be drawn into a wild firefight, while Elliott lands sporadic strikes but can’t string anything together. A little past the halfway mark, Erceg lands a clean one-two that represents the best offense by either man thus far. Erceg appears to be growing more and more comfortable, but Elliott catches him with a sweeping right hand that hurts him. Again, Elliott can’t follow up, and Erceg recovers. Erceg places a couple of stiff jabs on Elliott’s chin, and takes a glancing hook in return. Elliott changes levels and gets a fast takedown against the fence, but Erceg gets right back up. They separate, meet in the center of the cage and Elliott gets another takedown right after the 10-second clapper. The horn sounds. 10-9 Elliott.
Round 2
Elliott is switching stances constantly as they meet in the middle of the cage for Round 2. Erceg again pursues in disciplined fashion, sliding forward and cutting off the cage while Elliott springs in and out of range, spins and throws off-balance single strikes. Elliott is talking, but a minute in, it’s Erceg landing the cleaner, sharper punches. Elliott’s kicks are effective, landing to Erceg’s lead left leg from both sides, mixing in some body work. Elliott changes levels and grounds the Australian with a double-leg, but Erceg pops back to his feet instantly. They disengage and meet against in the center of the Octagon, and it’s Erceg launching a takedown attempt, which Elliott defends. Erceg gets the better of a couple of pocket exchanges, then gets a clean takedown in the middle of the cage. Elliott escapes to his feet and scores a takedown of his own. Erceg escapes to his feet with a minute left and tags Elliott with two unblocked punches. Elliott is hurt but far from out of it, marching forward and swinging big. Erceg gives ground, plants and returns fire with more accurate punches to the head. It’s still competitive, but the momentum has definitely swung the other way as the horn sounds. 10-9 Erceg.
Round 3
Erceg walks down Elliott, who comes up just short with a superman punch. Erceg’s jab continues to define the fight, as he can’t seem to miss with it. The jab is scoring for Erceg, answering everything Elliott throws at him and preventing the American from building any kind of momentum. Elliott hacks away at Erceg’s left leg with two hard low kicks. Erceg suddenly launches a big high kick that glances off of Elliott’s guard, then goes right back to work with his bread-and-butter jab and right cross. Elliott is still in Erceg’s face at the midpoint of the round, coming forward with big swinging punches, and Erceg is calmly sniping him on the counter every single time. Elliott drops levels and runs Erceg all the way across the cage with a double-leg, depositing him on his butt at the base of the fence. Erceg gets right back up and Elliott disengages rather than keep wrestling. When they meet again it’s more of the same: Erceg slipping big telegraphed attacks from Elliott and returning fire with ultra-clean punches. The horn sounds on what was, by the end, a quietly dominant performance for Steve Erceg. 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg).
The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Tim Elliott via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Steve Erceg despite being a known hater, because he believes Erceg is the cleaner, more technical grappler. He thinks Erceg's durability and wrestling will overcome Tim Elliott's pressure. However, he criticizes the -400 odds as too high and finds it hard to connect the dots.
Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by third-round submission. He believes Erceg is the better striker and has underrated grappling, while Tim Elliott slows down and has poor submission defense (submitted six times). Brady expects Elliott to be competitive early but fade, allowing Erceg to catch a late submission.
Cody picks Erceg but is hesitant, noting Erceg's inconsistency and chin issues. He believes Erceg's takedown defense and counter grappling will be key, and that Elliott's age and travel fatigue may work against him.
Connor picks Elliott, arguing that if Elliott fights like he did in round two against Kai Asakura—pressuring and wrestling—he will win. He notes Erceg's footwork falls apart under heavy pressure and that Elliott is a better wrestler than people think. Connor acknowledges the risk of Elliott fighting stupidly but believes the current version of Elliott is more playful and enjoys breaking opponents.
Daniel Vreeland picks Steve Erceg, expecting him to take over in the later rounds. He notes Tim Elliott's funky style and early-round danger but believes Erceg's cardio and submission threat will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's jet lag complaints as a potential factor.
Erceg has every advantage: home crowd, younger, better striker, better grappler. Elliott has poor striking, bad takedown defense, and is weak off his back. Erceg went five rounds with Pantoja, so submission risk is low. Surprised Erceg isn't a bigger favorite; tempted to bet straight.
Lucrative James picks Steve Erceg to win via submission in round three. He expects Tim Elliott to start strong but fade, allowing Erceg to take over in later rounds with superior cardio and grappling. He references Erceg's past performances where he dominated late rounds.
The host picks Erceg, believing his Muay Thai and BJJ will nullify Elliott's grappling. He expects Erceg to land more damage on the feet and win a decision, possibly catching Elliott in a submission. The host notes Elliott's value but thinks Erceg is the more skilled fighter.
Paul picks Erceg, emphasizing his strong takedown defense and performance against top competition. He notes Elliott's age and travel issues, and believes Erceg will edge out a close decision in Australia.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott after initially considering Steve Erceg. He worries about Erceg's inconsistency, citing the Ode Osbourne fight, and believes Elliott's craftiness will lead to a split decision win. He thinks Erceg may fumble in the big moment.
Zane picks Erceg, reasoning that Tim Elliott is likely to 'fuck around' and think takedowns will come easier than they will. He notes Erceg is a sharp boxer with good hands and combinations, and that Elliott's chaotic style could leave him exposed. Zane acknowledges Elliott could win if he pressures and wrestles correctly, but he's betting on Elliott's inconsistency.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 39 of 82 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 35 of 74 | 47% | 47 of 89 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 4 of 14 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 26 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:46 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 18 of 33 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 17 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 20 of 53 | 37% | 10 of 42 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 43 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 35 of 74 | 47% | 20 of 53 | 4 of 7 | 11 of 14 | 29 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 3 of 11 | 27% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 17 of 32 | 53% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 11 of 25 | 44% | 4 of 18 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 12 of 25 | 48% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Steve Erceg | 6 of 17 | 35% | 4 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 6 of 17 | 35% | 3 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Erceg (-400); Osbourne (+300)
Round 1
We have reached the co-main event, a battle between two flyweights who decided that they would be better suited competing at 135 pounds on late notice. Former title challenger Erceg (12-4, 3-3 UFC) has run into a competitive wall as of late, and he fights down in the rankings to take on Osbourne (13-8, 1 NC; 5-6 UFC). The referee for tonight’s penultimate match will Mark Smith, and the athletes tap gloves together before getting down to it.
Osbourne claims the center of the cage, fishing with his jab and awkward up-and-down hand movement. Osbourne kicks the front leg of his foe multiple times, and he sits back when Erceg advances to aim a counter. The left hand from Osbourne bounces Erceg off the wall, who rebounds and lets go with a big overhand right. Osbourne chips at the heavy favorite, chewing up his knee with oblique kicks and parrying the oncoming fire. Osbourne times Erceg with two crisp punches, standing the former title challenger up and marking up his nose. Osbourne continues chopping at the knee with kicks, and he narrowly dodges a big right hand up top. Osbourne keeps moving his hands in circular motions, and when Erceg comes in, he pops him in the chops with a right hand. Erceg slings a right hand to set up a takedown shot, and Osbourne springboards off the wall to get out and back to kickboxing range. The Aussie just misses a looping right hand, and he stands a little too still after swinging.
Osbourne fires off a huge right hand to the temple, and Erceg crashes face-first into the wall. Still somewhat with it, Erceg looks for a single, pushing the underdog to the fence while trying to recover. Osbourne starts smacking him upside the head while defending the takedown, and he uses his weight to topple over on top of Erceg. Osbourne scrambles to take his back, and Erceg keeps moving and gets back to his feet. Erceg turns the tables on his opponent, wrangling him to the mat and snaking around to take his back. Erceg starts hunting for a rear-naked choke while getting his hooks in, and Osbourne times a moment to spin around in the guard and wind up on top without getting subbed. Osbourne tosses out a head kick as Erceg stands, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Round 2
The athletes hand-fight to start off until Osbourne looses a big body kick. Erceg’s attempted counter is caught with a right hand on the jaw. Erceg calms himself down and shoots for a single, pressing the underdog to the wall. Erceg works the body with short punches to try to take some of the sting out of the punches. They switch position while clinches until Osbourne breaks free.
Both men throw out jabs, and Osbourne connects with a hard inside leg kick. Erceg boots Osbourne upside the head, and “The Jamaican Sensation” does not bat an eye. Erceg sticks out a few right hands, using them to set up a takedown shot. A knee from Erceg bangs into the cup, and Osbourne grimaces and Smith tells the fouling fighter to watch it. There is no break, so Osbourne takes it into his own hands to separate himself. Erceg reaches after him with a body kick on the way out. Erceg steps in with a left hand, and Osbourne busts him in the chops with a right hand that staggers him. The Aussie’s takedown shot fails, but his front kick after it digs into the body. Osbourne stays elusive and trips Erceg coming forward, but he misses a few big hooks. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Round 3
There is a clap of hands to start the final frame, and they both land at the same time. Erceg pitches a head kick that Osbourne is able to partially block, and Osbourne shrugs it off and gets after the former title challenger. Osbourne connects with a hard right hand, and Erceg stumbles and shakes it off to go for a single. “The Jamaican Sensation” trades in the pocket for a moment, and he calms down to thrust out jabs. Erceg digs him with a single punch, chaining it into a few more with a right hand at the end. Erceg lands first and last in a flurry, and he shoots for a double and lifts Osbourne off the ground. Erceg dumps his foe to the mat, allowing Osbourne to scramble so he can get to a more advantageous position.
The Aussie steps into half guard, staying heavy and flat chest-to-chest to not let Osbourne buck him off. Rather than attack, Erceg smothers, to which he uses the heavy pressure to advance to full mount. Osbourne spins around to his knees, and Erceg welcomes this too so he can get his back. “Astro Boy” secures the body triangle, and he loops his left arm beneath the chin but does not have the anchor arm to complete it. Perhaps due to the sweatiness of both men, but Osbourne is able to squirm around and work his way out of bad position and upright again. Erceg aggressively grabs Osbourne and chucks him to the floor, where Osbourne lands on his knees taking fire on both sides of his head. Erceg fastens a rear-naked choke that is on the chin and not under it, and he bails on it to sit up and deliver two gnarly punches before time expires. The second round could be the difference-maker as to who prevailed in this co-headliner.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Osbourne)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Ode Osbourne via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Steve Erceg, emphasizing that Erceg is an accomplished wrestler who should use takedowns against Ode' Osbourne, who has poor takedown defense. He criticizes Erceg for not wrestling in recent fights. If Erceg wrestles, he should win; if he strikes, he could lose. Angelo hopes Erceg has learned from his mistakes.
Big Brady is confident in Steve Erceg, noting his losses came only to champions or top contenders. He believes Erceg is better everywhere, especially in grappling, and that Osbourne has poor takedown defense, cardio, and durability. Brady predicts Erceg will submit Osbourne in the second round.
Connor picks Erceg because he is a more structured, consistent fighter than Osbourne, who is fast but dysfunctional and gasses easily. He notes that Erceg's defense is a concern but that he manages distance well when on the front foot, and that Osbourne's tendency to jump into the pocket will lead to takedowns and grappling where Erceg has the advantage. Connor acknowledges the southpaw question but believes Erceg will handle it.
The host believes Erceg is the better fighter with superior Muay Thai and a BJJ black belt. He acknowledges Osbourne's speed and power shown in his last fight, which is a concern as Erceg has been dropped before. However, he thinks Erceg will dial it in to avoid a four-fight losing streak and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg, calling him a more well-rounded mixed martial artist than Ronaldo Rodriguez, who beat Osbourne. He believes Erceg has better chin, submission defense, and IQ. He predicts a 30-27 decision or a third-round finish, dismissing Osbourne's chances unless he catches Erceg early.
Zane picks Erceg, noting that Osbourne is a dark horse who can deliver a top flyweight result but is inherently dysfunctional. He highlights Osbourne's poor takedown defense (65%) and tendency to gas, while Erceg is tough, has good grappling, and doesn't make many mistakes going forward. Zane is concerned about Erceg's lack of experience against southpaws but thinks Osbourne's style will force wrestling, which favors Erceg.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 89 of 176 | 50% | 95 of 182 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 116 of 279 | 41% | 119 of 282 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 21 of 40 | 52% | 21 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 25 of 68 | 36% | 25 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 27 of 48 | 56% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 25 of 57 | 43% | 26 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 22 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 19 of 56 | 33% | 21 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 89 of 176 | 50% | 59 of 138 | 18 of 25 | 12 of 13 | 87 of 174 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 116 of 279 | 41% | 90 of 237 | 11 of 24 | 15 of 18 | 115 of 278 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 21 of 40 | 52% | 14 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 25 of 68 | 36% | 18 of 57 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 21 of 46 | 45% | 14 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 27 of 48 | 56% | 20 of 39 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 10 of 24 | 41% | 3 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 20 of 50 | 40% | 16 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Brandon Moreno | 19 of 35 | 54% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 25 of 57 | 43% | 19 of 49 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Brandon Moreno | 18 of 31 | 58% | 13 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 19 of 56 | 33% | 17 of 50 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Moreno (-238), Erceg (+195)
Round 1
The only ranked matchup—meaning, fight between two fighters with numbers next to their names—is in the main event, and it should be a fun one. Former champ Moreno (22-8-2, 10-5-2 UFC) turned things around with a decision over Amir Albazi a few months ago, while Erceg (12-3, 3-2 UFC) has still not shaken the dust off after unsuccessfully vying for the flyweight strap. The triumphant man may position himself better towards another championship opportunity, while the defeated’s stock will take a serious hit. Referee Herb Dean brings the two 125ers to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and have the two bump their fists. They do. It’s on with the show. Jabs are outstretched to one another’s general direction, and Moreno commits first with a looping left hand. When the first misses, he fires it again and bangs it into Erceg’s temple. Moreno gets behind his jab, and he checks a kick aimed at his front leg. The lunging left gets through again, and he follows it with a left to the liver and a kick to the same spot. Moreno’s left side continues to get through, as he again blitzes with a left. Erceg sticks him with a few jabs and a right hand, and the low kick at the end of the combo is checked. Moreno pecks out a jab and a left hook, and Erceg walks him down to throw hands for a moment before splitting off. Moreno’s leaping left hand sends Erceg staggering off to the side, and he gathers his thoughts and pins a few punches on the raised guard. When Moreno’s left is established, he hurls out a right to surprise his opponent. Erceg drills him in the ribs with a pair of punches, and he comes up an inch or two shy of a snappy front kick. Chants in support of Moreno practically do not cease, with the crowd excited to celebrate each and every moment of success for their fighter. Moreno gets in again, and the audience booms in delight. Erceg gets off jabs and low kicks, but the power is firmly in the favor of the former champ. Erceg sneaks in a left shovel uppercut, and Moreno sits down with a body kick in response. Erceg flashes his jab a few more times, planting it at the top of the head. Moreno clacks him with another big overhand right, and a second shakes him up and forces him to jump away and shake it out. Moreno uses the opportunity to chop down the front leg, and jabs are where the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 2
Erceg rushes out of his corner to take the center of the Octagon, where he paws away jabs from his opponent and pitches a head kick up high. Moreno blocks and blasts Erceg with a right hand, and Erceg scoots away to not stay on the gunnery range. They crash together, and Erceg drives home a right hand and steps in with a knee. Erceg slips a punch to deliver an uppercut on the chin, and he tries to skirt away but takes two nasty leg kicks. Moreno steps in to fake like he will kick a third time, and goes up top with a left hand. Moreno dings Erceg with a second left, thwarting any attempt for Erceg to tie things up. Moreno times a counter right to knock Erceg back from a kick, and both men chain solid combinations together on one another. Moreno kicks the leg, and Erceg peppers out a jab. Moreno’s own jab allows him to get in and get off two left hooks, and he ducks down to mess with Erceg by grabbing his ankle. Erceg regains his balance and flicks the jab out, and he just misses a right hand and rushes away but gets kicked on the way out. Moreno drills Erceg with two clean hooks, and Erceg stands straight up and wonders what the number was of that bus. When he blinks out the damage, Erceg sticks his fists to the guard of his foe a few times. Moreno beats his man to the punch with a jab, and he lets a front kick go by so he can rip a left hand up top. Moreno capitalizes on the success with a low kick, and both men score single heavy hooks. Chins have been tested and answered the call well, with Erceg trying his foe’s out with a few punches and a high kick. Erceg hits a fade-back right hand, and the round closes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Round 3
The round opens with Moreno faking to reach down for a level change. Erceg is not buying it, and jabs him in the face. Moreno lunges forward with a left hook, and he raises his guard just in time to block a kick. Moreno hits air on a pair of looping punches, with Erceg starting to see the power strikes coming. Moreno jabs the body and ignores a front kick that goes by, bobbing and weaving to move with jabs and not take anything flush. Erceg drives his opponent back with an uppercut, and Moreno reaches and barely lands at the end of his right hand. Erceg is slicker and more elusive than the last two rounds, but he still gets reached with kicks that are actively targeting him. Moreno flirts with checking kicks when Erceg kicks low, and he kicks the former challenger in the side. Erceg plants his fists on Moreno’s nose, kicking him in the front leg to mix things up. The fighters slip when trying to dodge one another, and then regain their footing as Erceg plants his feet to put a few punches together. Erceg sets up a knee to the body and backs off to avoid the counter, and he surprises Moreno with a front kick up the middle. Moreno fakes high to kick low, and he reaches with a few left hooks that continue to miss the mark. Erceg is more content to touch while Moreno loads up, but neither man is connecting at a particular high volume. One solid strike from Erceg comes in the form of a knee to the body, and as the round time expires, Moreno shrugs his shoulders.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 4
Having reached the championship rounds, the two pick up where they left off with jab attacks and kicks. Erceg aims to split the guard while Moreno wants to dig beneath or around it. Moreno successfully loops a single left around the defense of his opponent, and he pops Erceg with a second to force Erceg to stumble away. The Aussie is no worse for wear, wide-eyed to watch out for Moreno walking him down. Erceg forces Moreno to stay honest, keeping the jab in his face when not backing off to defend himself. Erceg times a front kick on the belly, hurting Moreno for a moment as the Mexican staggers back and forth confusedly. Moreno bites down on his mouthpiece and lunges into action, landing flush until Erceg kicks him upside the head. Another front kick from Erceg gives him a moment to breathe, as Moreno bears down on him looping heavy shots at him. Erceg jabs, follows the jabs and has to guard the oncoming fire from the former champ. Moreno starts talking to him, and Erceg grins when taking a few punches on the chin. Moreno goes high and then to the ribs, with his left hook drawing blood on the side of Erceg’s right eye. Erceg pays it no mind and kicks Moreno in the melon. Moreno laughs it off and swings back, and he keeps talking while throwing hands. Erceg defends from an overhand right, and he has his head kick pushed back while Moreno chases him around the cage. Moreno jabs the body, and the fans in the building start booing the fighters for their lack of heavy engagement after three rounds. Moreno shoots in for a single to quiet the masses momentarily, and he pulls Erceg to his seat and forces Erceg to scramble right before the bell. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 5
The crowd is largely on its feet as the fighters signal to them to give it up. The athletes are all smiles, and they get down to business by punching one another in the face in the final period of the fight. Moreno loads up on big right and lefts, and he lets Erceg try to do the same so he can make the Aussie hit air. Moreno sways and moves from a combo to let fly a left hand, torqueing his body in unusual ways to keep from being struck. Moreno winds up with a nasty leg kick, and a second is checked. Moreno jumps forward and possibly goes for a level change, but Erceg is having none of it and puts his hands in the former champ’s face. Erceg lifts up a kick that bangs into the raised guard, and when Moreno stings him, Erceg slips back. Moreno charges, ripping punches and hammering Erceg with a high kick. Erceg shells up and bounces off the fencing to reset, but he finds that Moreno is still right in front of him like always. An Erceg head kick mildly bumps into the guard, and Moreno reaches him with a right hook. Doubled jabs from the former beltholder lead to a right hand, and Erceg steels himself and drills Moreno in the chin. Erceg pushes out his jab, and Moreno does not budge an inch even when tagged. Moreno gives a bit of ground to lure Erceg in towards him, and when Erceg does not bite, he meanders forward. Erceg looses a head kick, and Moreno grabs it and hurls the former title challenger to his back. With 50 seconds to go, Moreno looks for a guard pass, positioning Erceg in an uncomfortable posture nearly doing a split on his back. Moreno successfully leaps over to the side with seconds to spare, and he jams down elbows until the horn concludes this five-round entanglement. Moreno stands and screams, waving off the doctor and pacing back and forth in anticipation of the result. Barring something unusual, Mexican fighters will end the night way ahead of foreign adversaries. Meanwhile, Moreno is about to pick up his first win in the Octagon on home soil. The former champion, who is now officially on a win streak, calls for an opportunity to compete at UFC 320 in Guadalajara, Mexico, this September. If he makes it on that event, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno (49-46 Moreno)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno (49-46 Moreno)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno (49-46 Moreno)
The Official Result
Brandon Moreno def. Steve Erceg via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
Connor argues that Steve Erceg has been rushed into tough fights, facing Pantoja, Kai Kara-France, and now Moreno without proper development. He highlights Erceg's defensive boxing flaws, particularly his lack of head movement and tendency to overcommit. Connor believes Moreno's experience and technical superiority will exploit these weaknesses, leading to a Moreno win.
James picks Brandon Moreno to win, citing Moreno's vast experience advantage (over 30 fights vs 15 for Erceg), superior durability, better cardio, and higher fight IQ. He notes Erceg has been knocked out recently and has shown poor decision-making in late rounds, as seen against Pantoja. James acknowledges the elevation factor but believes Moreno's gas tank is more reliable, especially late. He predicts a late stoppage or more likely a decision win for Moreno, and mentions that if there's value, it lies with Erceg as an underdog.
Zane agrees with Connor that Erceg is being mishandled by the UFC, taking too many high-level fights in a row. He notes that Erceg's takedown attempt against Pantoja was a rookie mistake, and that he hasn't had time to develop. Zane sees Moreno as a tough test that Erceg isn't ready for, and picks Moreno to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 2 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 2 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 18 of 51 | 35% | 11 of 35 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 |
| Steve Erceg | 9 of 29 | 31% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 18 of 51 | 35% | 11 of 35 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 |
| Steve Erceg | 9 of 29 | 31% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Erceg (-166), Kara-France (+140)
Round 1
The lone all-Oceania battle comes in the co-main event, with New Zealand’s Kara-France (24-11, 1 NC; 7-4 UFC) aiming to snap his first losing streak in nearly a decade at the expense of former undisputed title challenger and Western Australia native Erceg (12-2, 3-1 UFC). Even with both men coming up short in past championship opportunities, a win tonight and maybe one more may propel the victor into contention once more. Referee Rich Mitchell will be the first to know who that is, and he sits back as the fighters come together to clap hands. Erceg shifts directly to the center of the cage, and they both are prepared for the other’s leg kick as they anticipatorily lift their lead legs when squaring up. Kara-France lunges forward after 45 seconds elapse with three looping hooks, and Erceg dances away from them all and pokes out a jab. Erceg jabs again, prompting Kara-France to do the same to the midsection. Erceg ducks just in time to dodge a looping right hand, and Kara-France is out of the way before he can get countered. Erceg jabs his way forward, and Kara-France sticks him to the ribs. Kara-France kicks the front leg and attacks the body, and Erceg kicks him back. Erceg keeps Kara-France at the end his punches, and Kara-France still manages to reach him with winging strikes. Erceg rolls with them just in time, and his own jab reddens the nose of the City Kickboxing product. Erceg puts an uppercut on the guard, bouncing Kara-France back to the fence. Kara-France unleashes a big right hand, and Erceg fires back fearlessly. “Don’t Blink” thumps the front leg and aims a jab to the body, and he strafes to the side but is still met with a jab. Kara-France winds up with a massive left hand, sending Erceg flying. The back of Erceg’s head clatters off the mat, possibly reactivating him after a flash knockout. Kara-France aims and misses two standing-to-ground punches before Erceg dives after his leg, and Erceg uses the close range to explode back to his feet. Kara-France is on him loaded for bear, firing off a huge right hand that forces Erceg to retreat as fast as he can. Kara-France connects with a massive right hook on the temple, and Erceg shifts to the side to dodge. Unfortunately for “Astro Boy,” he circles right into the power right hand of the Kiwi. Kara-France detonates a bomb of a right hand on Erceg’s dome, sending him down in a heap. Two punctuating punches to the side finish the job as Mitchell races in to rescue Erceg from further harm. Kara-France has done it, springing the sizeable upset and becoming the first fighter to knock out the durable youngster. Erceg does not protest the stoppage when he gets back to his feet while in Mitchell’s protective embrace, instead showing disappointment in himself for getting caught like this. Meanwhile, Kara-France jumps to the top of the fence and celebrates his handiwork with the elated audience.
The Official Result
Kai Kara-France def. Steve Erceg R1 4:04 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Steve Erceg because of his size advantage and grappling, believing he can use his size to lean on Kai Kara-France and get the fight to the ground. He notes that Kara-France has great takedown defense but is tiny, and Erceg is big for the division. He considers it a close fight and suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Kara-France might be good.
Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by third-round submission. He favors Erceg due to durability (never knocked out or submitted) and grappling upside (BJJ black belt). He notes Kara-France has been finished six times and is hittable. He believes Erceg can hurt Kara-France on the feet and then submit him. He acknowledges the striking could be competitive but thinks Erceg has more paths to victory, including the younger age and grappling advantage.
Cody sees Erceg as the bigger, more durable fighter with better takedown defense and a higher ceiling after nearly beating Pantoja. He notes Kara-France is on a two-fight losing streak, has been knocked down multiple times, and lacks power against top competition. Cody also mentions Erceg's hometown advantage in Perth.
Vreeland picks Erceg, calling him the better all-around fighter. He notes Kara-France is good at stuffing takedowns but Erceg's striking power (brutal KO) will make him hesitant. He also highlights Erceg's ground game shown against Pantoja, suggesting a possible submission. He envisions a 'tag and bag' scenario similar to Kara-France's loss to Brandon Royval.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kai Kara-France via split decision, arguing that Erceg is overrated off his title shot and that Kara-France has the defensive grappling and striking to make it close. He notes that Kara-France has been training hard and won the bleep test at his gym, and that the line movement toward Kara-France suggests sharp action. Vreeland acknowledges the risk of Kara-France's layoff and concussion narrative but believes the fight is a dog-or-pass situation.
Fox agrees with Erceg for the same reasons: more well-rounded and dangerous everywhere. He emphasizes Erceg's ability to hurt Kara-France on the feet and potentially submit him. He notes Kara-France has been submitted before after being stunned.
The host is confident in Erceg, citing his technical striking, height advantage, and defensive grappling. He expects Erceg to land straight shots and counter Kara-France's power shots. He also notes Erceg's submission threat. He believes Erceg is the more complete fighter and will win by decision or submission.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Erceg's performance against Pantoja as a revelation that he belongs at the top. He notes Kara-France's takedowns won't be effective because Erceg gets back up easily, and that Erceg's size and durability will be key. Paul also points out the travel advantage for Erceg fighting in Perth.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg over Kai Kara-France. He praises Erceg's activity, technical striking, and game planning, noting he is taller and good at picking shots against shorter opponents. He criticizes Kara-France for being one-dimensional, always stepping in with the same overhand. He acknowledges Kara-France's takedown defense but believes Erceg will win a decision, possibly dropping Kara-France. He mentions Kara-France's long layoffs and losses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 125 of 242 | 51% | 143 of 262 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 8:15 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 111 of 212 | 52% | 129 of 233 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 34 of 59 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 27 of 53 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 28 of 43 | 65% | 33 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:13 | |
| 3 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 34 of 57 | 59% | 37 of 60 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 26 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 23 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 31 of 63 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 22 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 125 of 242 | 51% | 75 of 184 | 33 of 39 | 17 of 19 | 96 of 207 | 14 of 16 | 15 of 19 |
| Steve Erceg | 111 of 212 | 52% | 87 of 181 | 16 of 23 | 8 of 8 | 107 of 207 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 30 of 55 | 54% | 17 of 39 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 40 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 11 |
| Steve Erceg | 17 of 35 | 48% | 12 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexandre Pantoja | 23 of 48 | 47% | 16 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 41 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Steve Erceg | 28 of 43 | 65% | 23 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Alexandre Pantoja | 34 of 57 | 59% | 15 of 36 | 15 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 26 of 49 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Steve Erceg | 22 of 45 | 48% | 17 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexandre Pantoja | 23 of 55 | 41% | 18 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 31 of 63 | 49% | 23 of 52 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 31 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexandre Pantoja | 15 of 27 | 55% | 9 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Steve Erceg | 13 of 26 | 50% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pantoja (-185), Erceg (+154)
Round 1
The evening concludes in the flyweight division, as extremely violent champion Pantoja (27-5, 11-3 UFC) welcomes the next challenge of his belt. That comes in the form of relative neophyte Erceg (12-1, 3-0 UFC), who was not on the UFC roster one year ago. Make no mistake, Erceg has shown he has the skills to be a legitimate contender, and he is calm as a cucumber in the biggest fight of his life. Referee Marc Goddard receives the honor of officiating the final bout of the evening, and it begins with the two coming together to bump fists as they receive instructions. Pantoja immediately surges into action, chasing the challenger around the cage with reckless flurries of punches. One such press bullies Erceg to the wall, and he fights off a takedown attempt and gains some separation as his nose is already reddening. Erceg keeps his jab outstretched to keep the champ at bay, and he lines up several punches and a head kick to surprise Pantoja. Pantoja gathers himself and lets loose with a number of body shots, and they tie up and knee at the same time to force them apart. Erceg jabs with his foot, toes outstretched. Pantoja comes in close, stringing together three punches and a knee that cuts the challenger on the top of his forehead. They trade low kicks, and Erceg looks for a right hand but is beaten to the punch when Pantoja gets off a left hand and a leg kick. Pantoja lands a big right hand, and he races forward and tackles Erceg to the mat. Erceg utilizes a butterfly guard to keep Pantoja from claiming top position, and he bucks the champ off momentarily. Pantoja rushes at him and knees him in the chest before smothering down to get into half guard and climb on top. Pantoja drops down a few punches before Erceg works his way back upright, only for Pantoja to drag him down from behind. Pantoja holds Erceg’s leg in a strange position to keep him pinned to the mat, and he knees Erceg in the side and forces Erceg to turn the other direction to nearly surrender his back. Pantoja unleashes a blitz of ground-and-pound, and Erceg steels himself and works back to his feet, although Pantoja still has the waist lock behind him. Pantoja wrangles Erceg down to his seat again, and Erceg scrambles madly to climb back up. Erceg walks Pantoja down with seconds left in the round, and he misses with a knee before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Round 2
The flyweights clock in, and Erceg looks to establish his jab only for the champion to bull-rush him with an unorthodox slew of punches, elbows and knees. Pantoja uses his aggression to tie Erceg up and consider a single, but he breaks off so he can knee Erceg in the guts. Pantoja jumps forward to land a jab, and Erceg pushes him away with a front kick. Pantoja crowds the pocket with flying fists, and Erceg struggles to land in response. Erceg gets in a few jabs, breaking up the looping shots from Pantoja. Pantoja wanders into a firefight, and he chucks Erceg to the mat just when Erceg lands cleanly on him. Pantoja climbs over to full mount, and Erceg sits up in an effort to escape it and recover back to half guard. Erceg sweeps the champion, and Pantoja does not mind as he knees Erceg in the belly twice before they split apart, back on their feet again. Erceg lets go a left hook that bangs into the temple, and he dips down with an uppercut and shoots for a takedown. Pantoja lets him do this so he can snatch up a guillotine choke, and Erceg bails on the attempt immediately to get out of the submission danger. Erceg lands first and last during an exchange, and he brushes past the face with a front kick. Pantoja lashes out with a right hand, and he catches Pantoja coming in with a vicious elbow and a powerful left hand. Pantoja decides to shoot for a takedown, but Erceg shuts it down and starts walking the champion down. Erceg pops out a jab, and he elbows Pantoja as Pantoja strides forward. Erceg scores rapid strikes and only slows when Pantoja slaps him with a body kick. Pantoja grabs hold of Erceg, slinging the challenger to the mat with seconds to spare. Pantoja rains down punches, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Round 3
Pantoja is ready to attack to start off the round, and Erceg intercepts him on the way in immediately with a stern elbow. Pantoja still manages to tie him up and knee the body a few times before they split. Erceg loops a left hand around the guard, and he scores a low kick and lands a few punches before escaping to avoid the counter. Erceg catches his man with a right hand, and Pantoja races after him and plants a kick on the lead calf. Erceg flicks his jab out, and he eats several body shots and gives back a left hand over the top. The challenger misses with a high kick and barely reaches with a front kick, and he backs off when Pantoja charges him. Pantoja goes to the body and head, and Erceg answers the call with a right hand. Erceg lands a few shots, slides to the side and evades the counter. Erceg slips a looping punch, and Pantoja catches him on the way out with a pair of hooks. “The Cannibal” sprints forward and clinches up, and he has a knee bounce off the cup as Erceg grimaces. Goddard is about to pause the action, and Erceg calls him off. The fighters split up, and they throw bombs and detonate them on one another. Erceg lands a body shot, and Pantoja attacks with mighty punches. Pantoja takes an elbow on the forehead that splits him open, and he shoots for takedown and touches the cut that has already started bleeding. Pantoja settles to pursue a body lock takedown, and he gets the challenger down to the mat and lands in half guard. Blood leaks into Erceg’s mouth as Pantoja lords over him, and he takes the back during a mad scramble. Erceg fights and shifts, and Pantoja pounds him with punches until Erceg stands up. Pantoja lands a trip takedown right at the bell, and he holds the wound on his forehead until the cutman tends to it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Round 4
Erceg leads off in the championship rounds aggressively, and Pantoja meets him in the middle ready to counter and let fly a kick. Pantoja overswings with a right hand, and Erceg is composed and jabs while kicking low. Pantoja lands two jabs, and Erceg tries a trip takedown that Pantoja is easily able to get away from. Erceg lands at the end of a right hand, and he scores an elbow as well. Pantoja tries for a takedown that is shut down, with Erceg making him pay courtesy of an uppercut and left hand. Erceg lands first in the battle of the jab, and Pantoja races into action with three punches that appear to sting the challenger. Erceg tries for a takedown, and Pantoja again tosses him to the side. Erceg sticks him with a jab and a right hand to follow, and he snaps the head back with his sharp jab. Pantoja kicks low, and it is one-and-done as is volume has taken a downturn as he appears to be taking the round off, relatively speaking. Pantoja throws three punches, and the cut opens back up on his forehead as crimson fluid leaks into his eye. Pantoja wipes at it and clips Erceg with a right hand, and Erceg fearlessly moves forward before shooting for a takedown. Pantoja staves it off and considers a guillotine choke, but opts to release it and circle away. Erceg gives chase and hammers the liver with a left hand, and blood obscures Pantoja’s vision in his left eye. Pantoja whiffs on big hooks, and the few that follow land flush. Pantoja jabs, and he ducks right into an uppercut but does not flinch. Instead, Pantoja grabs hold of the challenger, landing a right hand when Erceg breaks. The round ends, and it could all be up for grabs in the next five minutes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Round 5
Erceg has plenty of pep in his step, as he practically runs towards the champion to engage. Pantoja meets him standing firm, throwing big hands, and Erceg stumbles as he tries to escape the assault. Erceg switches gears and throws Pantoja off his feet, landing a takedown but finding himself in an uncomfortable position with Pantoja pushes off his groin with his foot. Pantoja turns the tables, works his way back around to take the challenger down, and he circles around to take the back. Erceg stands back up, grabbing the fence to keep himself upright. Pantoja clings to him from behind, looking to drag him down, and Goddard warns Erceg about fouls. Erceg elbows him a few times without looking, and Pantoja drags him down from behind. Erceg spins during a scramble, and he manages to free himself from the grip and back to striking range. Erceg scores an uppercut, and he gets knocked back with a left hand. Pantoja sticks out a left hand as he gets kicked in the head, and he blasts the challenger with a good left hand. Erceg slashes open Pantoja with another elbow, opening a cut on the other side of the head. Pantoja digs a body shot and chains it into a right hand that stuns “Astro Boy.” Pantoja defends a takedown by allowing Erceg to attempt it and roll through it to wind up on top. Blood from the Brazilian pools on the chest of his opponent, with him residing in half guard until Erceg tries to explode and get away. Pantoja drags him back down, and he works the body while Erceg looks to twist and turn. Erceg gives up his back as he moves, and Pantoja follows him and leaps into mount. The champion drops punches on the Aussie until Erceg sits up, and the bloody battle comes to a conclusion. Scorecards could be all over the map here, but no matter the victor, Erceg proved he is among the best 125-pounders in the world.
The victorious Pantoja gives Brazilian fighters 10 wins in 13 fights tonight, in a nailbiter that might look quite different if they run it back in a year or two. The defending flyweight champion now is tied with the active record of consecutive title defenses in the UFC with two, and it remains to be seen who will challenge him next. Pantoja asks for some time off, given his high level of activity. When “The Cannibal” returns, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja (48-47 Pantoja)
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja (49-46 Pantoja)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja (48-47 Pantoja)
The Official Result
Alexandre Pantoja def. Steve Erceg via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
Angelo picks Pantoja, expecting him to wrestle his way to a win similar to his fight with Brandon Royval. He notes Erceg's unassuming look but acknowledges his skill. He says the 2-1 odds are fair given Pantoja's experience and path to victory.
Big Brady emphasizes Pantoja's superior resume and proven championship rounds. He doubts Erceg's power and finishing ability, predicting Pantoja wins a decision in Brazil. He also mentions a prize pick play on Pantoja over 2.5 takedowns.
Cody picks Pantoja, citing his championship experience, improved cardio, and elite grappling with back-taking ability. He notes Erceg hasn't faced a top-tier grappler like Pantoja and is more of a decision fighter. Cody also likes Pantoja by submission at plus money as a prop.
Daniel Vreeland picks Pantoja to win by decision, citing Pantoja's experience, durability, and ability to manage the home crowd emotions. He acknowledges Erceg's toughness but believes Pantoja's path to victory involves taking the back and grinding out a decision. He disagrees with Cody Duran's early finish prediction, leaning toward a decision due to Erceg's durability.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alexandre Pantoja confidently. He wants to root for Steve Erceg because his story is fun, but he doesn't think Erceg's skills match up. Vreeland notes that Erceg's best grappling moments come from countering shots, but Pantoja is nearly impossible to counter on takedowns. Erceg's striking power is also neutralized by Pantoja's defensive soundness. Vreeland emphasizes Pantoja's top game as possibly the best in MMA, comparing it to Islam Makhachev. He says Erceg's scrambling and countering style won't work against Pantoja's positional dominance.
Jeff Fox picks Alexandre Pantoja, surprised the line is as close as -185. He thinks this fight is too early for Erceg, who hasn't faced high-caliber opponents. Fox notes that Pantoja is happy to be champion and fights in Brazil, so he won't drop the ball. Technically, Pantoja is dangerous everywhere, with strong grappling and striking. Fox doesn't think Erceg's strengths (countering shots, throwing bombs) will work against Pantoja, who is defensively sound and has arguably the best top game in MMA. He says if Erceg were +300 or higher he might talk himself into it, but at these odds he sees Pantoja steamrolling him.
Erceg's BJJ black belt and ability to stay out of bad positions will allow him to survive Pantoja's early onslaught. He will force Pantoja to work and turn up the volume in the later rounds, eventually finding a finish as Pantoja slows down. Erceg's slicker striking in deep waters will catch Pantoja off guard, leading to a TKO victory.
Paul picks Pantoja, emphasizing his superior grappling control and ability to take backs. He questions Erceg's competition level and notes Pantoja's cardio has held up in five-round fights. Paul sees Erceg's path to victory as low and recommends Pantoja as a money-line play.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg, arguing he is technically superior to Pantoja in all areas. He praises Erceg's takedown defense, clinch work, straight punches, and low kicks, and believes Pantoja's reliance on toughness is a weakness. He also notes Erceg's training with Craig Jones and the UFC's desire for an Australian star. He predicts Erceg will break Pantoja over five rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 22 of 78 | 28% | 25 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 1 | 34 of 72 | 47% | 34 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 20 of 69 | 28% | 23 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 32 of 67 | 47% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 1 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 22 of 78 | 28% | 18 of 70 | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 74 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 34 of 72 | 47% | 24 of 60 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 67 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 20 of 69 | 28% | 17 of 63 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 65 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 32 of 67 | 47% | 23 of 56 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 62 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Erceg (-325), Schnell (+260)
Round 1
It is all action on the main card, which begins with a flashy flyweight affair between wild man Schnell (16-7, 1 NC; 6-5, 1 NC UFC) and surging up-and-comer Erceg (11-1, 2-0 UFC). The Fortis MMA fighter has not fared well as of late, but his most recent win was a spectacular technical submission over Su Mudaerji. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Chris Tognoni, who starts the fight as the speedy gentlemen clap hands together. Schnell immediately gets behind his jab, flicking it out repeatedly to back the once-beaten Erceg away. Schnell connects with a series of punches to shake up the Aussie, and he crowds him and eventually clinches with him and uses an elbow on the inside. Erceg separates, and on the break, he lands a strike to open a cut on the top of Schnell’s left eyebrow. Schnell wings punches, and Erceg sees them coming and dodges before jabbing that already damaged eye. Erceg ducks a punch and misses on a counter, and his jab continues to mark up Schnell’s face. Schnell tries for a knee on the inside when they get up close, and Erceg backs him off with two punches to splatter some blood on Schnell’s cheek. Erceg sinks in a leg kick and slides away, and he puts a one-two on the mark and slides to the side to evade the counter. Schnell swings hard but does not land flush, while Erceg is much tighter and more compact. Schnell pushes out his own jab, and he bloodies the nose of his opponent, but his own eye is turning into a crime scene. Erceg gets in a left and pounds Schnell on the cheek with a heavy right, and Schnell wears it well and jabs his way back out. Erceg staggers his foe with a right hand, and cracks him a second time as Schnell backpedals. Erceg wades in a little too carelessly, and he gets rocked by a fiery right hand from “Danger.” Schnell cracks Erceg again with a series of punches, and Erceg defends by shooting. Schnell sprawls perfectly and pops back up without issue, but Erceg bust him in the chops with a right hand. The Aussie connects with a body kick shortly thereafter, and a one-two and a snappy jab find Schnell’s face before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Round 2
The flyweights meet in the middle and touch ‘em up, and Schnell is ready and rearing to go. He starts off with a pair of low kicks and a combination, and he reaches a right hand around the jab.
Erceg continues to jab, and as Schnell comes loaded for bear, “Astro Boy” rips a right to the body and a left that sends Schnell into orbit. There is no need for anything else from the Aussie, and Tognoni intervenes just in case before tending to the unconscious flyweight.
Schnell comes to, and Erceg has now earned the second knockout of his professional career—doing so against one of the best foes he could in a top-ranked Schnell.
The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Matt Schnell R2 0:26 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Steve Erceg, noting his slick grappling and ability to scramble. He thinks Erceg will use his length and grappling to win, despite not looking like a professional fighter. He acknowledges Matt Schnell's toughness but believes Erceg will get the win, possibly by decision.
Big Brady picks Erceg to win by second-round submission. He worries about Schnell's chin and durability, noting Schnell has been finished in 6 of 7 losses and has taken massive damage. He thinks Erceg will hurt Schnell and then submit him. He acknowledges Schnell's grappling but believes his durability is a major issue.
Cody picks Erceg, emphasizing Schnell's poor durability and history of getting knocked down. He notes that Erceg is a scrappy fighter with good grappling and volume, and that Schnell's best chance is a Hail Mary submission. Cody believes Erceg will eventually hurt Schnell and finish him, possibly in the middle rounds. He disagrees with the over, leaning towards the fight not going the distance.
Erceg is too clean and precise with his striking for Schnell, who lacks the reaction time to stop him. Erceg should land straight shots down the pipe, drop Schnell, and find the finish. Schnell has durability issues and has been in trouble in fights he even won. Erceg's BJJ is also a threat, but the host prefers a TKO finish. The under 1.5 rounds is plus money, and Erceg inside the distance is the play.
Paul picks Erceg and likes the over 1.5 rounds at -130. He notes Erceg is not a big power puncher but has a high pace and good grappling. He thinks Schnell is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, but Erceg may not have the power to finish early, making the over likely. He mentions Schnell's durability issues but believes Erceg will wear him down.
The MMA Guru picks Erceg but is not entirely confident. He criticizes Schnell's chin and submission defense, saying he taps easily. He expects Erceg to outdamage Schnell over a decision, possibly dropping him, but notes Erceg's finishing instincts are not great. He predicts a decision win for Erceg.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 74 of 125 | 59% | 104 of 162 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 | 1 | 6:29 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 54 of 97 | 55% | 85 of 129 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 31 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 16 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 37 of 60 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:06 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 33 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 3 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 36 of 48 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 36 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 74 of 125 | 59% | 41 of 87 | 25 of 30 | 8 of 8 | 43 of 91 | 26 of 28 | 5 of 6 |
| Alessandro Costa | 54 of 97 | 55% | 31 of 70 | 14 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 35 of 76 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 31 of 54 | 57% | 18 of 38 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 49 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Alessandro Costa | 16 of 36 | 44% | 6 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 24 of 45 | 53% | 15 of 35 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 30 | 9 of 11 | 3 of 4 |
| Alessandro Costa | 24 of 42 | 57% | 18 of 34 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 35 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Steve Erceg | 19 of 26 | 73% | 8 of 14 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 14 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Alessandro Costa | 14 of 19 | 73% | 7 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Erceg (-166), Costa (+140)
Round 1
Crashing into the UFC in June with a huge upset win over a ranked David Dvorak, Australia’s Erceg (10-1, 1-0 UFC) hopes his sophomore effort is just as solid as his UFC debut. Looking to halt his momentum will be Costa (13-3, 1-1 UFC), a former Lux Fight League champ who holds eight first-round finishes on his resume. They will be joined in the cage by referee Marc Goddard, and the preliminary headliner commences as the two flyweights touch gloves. Erceg takes to the center of the cage, and he slowly works his way forward without throwing much of note. When Costa aims a kick low, Erceg counters with a piston-like right hand. Erceg tosses out a leg kick, and a second kick makes Costa spring into action with a hard right hand. Costa flicks out a jab, and Erceg pushes out one back and kicks the inside and outside of his leg. When Costa kicks back, Erceg has a check ready. Costa’s big right hand bounces off the guard, and he swings two hooks as Erceg bears down on him. Erceg gets backed off, but still connects with a power jab. Costa flails long and connects with part of an overhand right, but Erceg is able to move with it to take some of the sting out of it. Erceg prods out his jab and snaps the head back with a right hand, and Costa kicks him in response. Costa rings Erceg’s bell with an overhand right, and he tries to chain another and is met with a knee up the middle and a right hook. Erceg splits the guard with a one-two, and he puts three together and sways to the side to make Costa hurl punches at nothing but air. Erceg goes between the gloves with an uppercut, and he lines up a huge right hand and busts Costa in the face. Costa attempts to take him down as he is rattled, and Erceg spins him around and climbs straight into full mount. Costa turns to his side, and Erceg snatches up a rear-naked choke. Costa is in huge trouble but manages to gut out the submission, as he turns his body and keeps moving. Erceg tries to trap him with another choke attempt, but Costa explodes to get back to his feet, and he pushes the Aussie to the wire. The round ends with both men attempting inaccurate front kicks.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Round 2
To start off the second stanza, the Australian fighter again claims the middle of the Octagon and moves forward, to force Costa to immediately backpedal. Erceg launches a head kick that pounds into the guard, and he shoves Costa and bounces him off the fence. Costa goes for a home run right hand, and Erceg evades it by a matter of millimeters. Costa is a man on a mission, looking for giant strikes, and he connects with numerous huge strikes as Erceg takes them or tries to keep moving. Costa drives a knee up the middle, and Erceg recovers and returns to put pressure on his opponent. Costa winds up with a hefty leg kick, and a subsequent overhand right stings Erceg again. Costa swings with a mighty right hook once more, and he shoots in low for a single to catch Erceg unaware. Erceg defends himself by getting pushed back to the wall, and Costa drags him down and shifts himself to half guard in a hurry. Costa tries to smash his foe with ground-and-pound, but he throws himself off-balance and allows Erceg to sneak out the back door and climb back to his feet, where he pushes Costa into the wall from behind. Erceg lowers himself down to grip hold of a single, and Costa gets away with a fence grab to stay upright. Erceg knees the body a few times while tightly pressed on his adversary, and Costa jumps guard for an armbar out of nowhere. Erceg defends himself smoothly and lets them both stand, but he continues to press his weight on his aggressive opponent. Costa pushes off, and he lets his hands go to knock Erceg back. As Erceg is wobbled, Costa tackles him to the canvas. The Brazilian turns over to pursue an armlock, and Erceg flips him over and grinds him with elbows on the face until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 3
The flyweights have reached Round 3, and Erceg is quick to resume the trend where he started the first two rounds pushing the pace early. Erceg backs Costa off, threatening knees and level changes, and Costa blocks a jump knee that is aimed at his dome. Erceg pushes him up to the fencing, and he fights off a trip to keep on his feet. Erceg looks to drag his man down, but Costa awkwardly keeps his balance and may have grabbed the cage again. Erceg transitions to a single, and Costa belts him with an elbow to back him off. Costa comes up short with a sweeping low kick, and Erceg jabs him multiple times in the face before timing a clean level change. Costa is on the mat for barely a second before jumping back up, and Erceg squeezes him up against the fencing to control him further. Costa gets off a solid right hand to back off the Aussie, and Erceg gathers his thoughts and pushes him back to the wall. Erceg looks to tie the legs up and trip Costa down, and Costa hits his knees and powers back up without batting an eye. Costa attempts his own far-side trip that does not succeed, and Erceg elbows him and eats two knees in the belly for his effort. Costa turns him around and sells out for a single, and he dumps Erceg down but cannot control him. Erceg is upright before Costa knows it, and he is pushing the Brazilian against the wall to run out the clock. Costa frames off with knees to the body, and Erceg responds in kind. Erceg cannot get his foe down, and he settles for clinch control until the final horn wraps the fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Alessandro Costa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Costa as an underdog, citing Costa's solid striking, tight guard, and real power. He notes Erceg is high volume and hittable, but Costa's power and combination striking could be the difference. He is not betting on this fight yet and may flip later.
Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by knockout in the third round. He notes Erceg is not on short notice, has a size advantage, and his striking has leveled up. He worries about Costa's durability, as Costa has been knocked out twice before and gets hurt often. Brady believes Erceg's power and improved striking will lead to a finish.
Cody picks Erceg, impressed by his debut on short notice against a ranked opponent. He notes Erceg's durability, scrambling, and ability to push a pace. He thinks Costa's low output and reliance on leg kicks won't be enough, and that Erceg has more dog in him.
Costa is the better fighter and the line is close to even, so taking the underdog at +130 is worth a small shot. Costa will be more aggressive and can stay out of danger if Erceg tries to take it to the ground. Expects Costa to control distance in the striking realm, land big shots, and win by decision.
Paul leans Costa as a dog, citing his leg kicks and power. He thinks Erceg's tall frame may be vulnerable to leg kicks, and that Costa's takedown defense is solid. He notes the line movement towards Costa and sees value at plus money, though he's not overly confident.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg, citing his impressive debut win over David Dvorak on short notice and strong regional career. He notes that Alessandro Costa was pieced up by Amir Albazi on the feet, which he sees as a bad sign. He predicts a competitive decision win for Erceg, possibly 29-28, but expresses a slight worry that Erceg might get knocked out due to his build.
Expert Picks (3)
Connor argues that Steve Erceg has been rushed into tough fights, facing Pantoja, Kai Kara-France, and now Moreno without proper development. He highlights Erceg's defensive boxing flaws, particularly his lack of head movement and tendency to overcommit. Connor believes Moreno's experience and technical superiority will exploit these weaknesses, leading to a Moreno win.
James picks Brandon Moreno to win, citing Moreno's vast experience advantage (over 30 fights vs 15 for Erceg), superior durability, better cardio, and higher fight IQ. He notes Erceg has been knocked out recently and has shown poor decision-making in late rounds, as seen against Pantoja. James acknowledges the elevation factor but believes Moreno's gas tank is more reliable, especially late. He predicts a late stoppage or more likely a decision win for Moreno, and mentions that if there's value, it lies with Erceg as an underdog.
Zane agrees with Connor that Erceg is being mishandled by the UFC, taking too many high-level fights in a row. He notes that Erceg's takedown attempt against Pantoja was a rookie mistake, and that he hasn't had time to develop. Zane sees Moreno as a tough test that Erceg isn't ready for, and picks Moreno to win.
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