UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira

Angelo picks Alex Perez as an underdog, arguing that Perez has shown he can defend takedowns against elite wrestlers like Muhammad Mokaev. He believes Taira's takedowns are not as good, and Perez has the striking advantage. He notes Perez's recent knockout win and experience. He thinks the plus 170 odds offer value and plans to place a bet.

Cody picks Alex Perez as a plus money underdog, arguing that flyweight fights are always close and Perez is a veteran with a wrestling base, BJJ black belt, and decent striking. He highlights Perez's 82% takedown defense and notes that Taira's wrestling is not good enough to take him down. Cody also points out that Taira struggled with Edgar Chairez, got dropped, and showed questionable cardio, which could be a problem in a five-round fight. He believes Perez's experience and power will take over as the fight goes on.

Daniel Vreeland acknowledges Alex Perez's resurgence and boxing/wrestling advantages but leans toward Taira due to his youth, reach, defensive striking, and opportunistic finishing ability. He notes Taira's incremental development and believes he can get past Perez, possibly by submission. However, he admits it could be a vet lesson and is not fully confident.

Jacob picks Tatsuro Taira, arguing that Perez has been outgrappled by top competition and Taira is more well-rounded than Mokaev. He believes Taira's striking and grappling are superior, and he will set up takedowns with strikes. He thinks Perez's takedown defense won't hold up and Taira will submit him. He is confident and offers to bet openly.

Perez's defensive grappling will shut down Taira's wrestling, which I'm not sold on. In the striking, Perez will dictate the pace with calf kicks to slow Taira and then open up his hands, finishing Taira in the third or fourth round.

Paul agrees with Cody, stating that Taira is a prospect who may look like a stud one day but the level of competition Perez has faced is far superior. He notes that Perez has been fighting the best in the division for years and is a big-time gatekeeper. Paul acknowledges the risk of Taira getting takedowns and taking the back, but he is still with Cody on betting Alex Perez.

The MMA Guru picks Tatsuro Taira by TKO. He believes Taira is better technically on the feet than Muhammad Mokaev, and that his grappling is more opportunistic and technical. He notes Taira's ability to take the back, reverse positions, and his good right hand. He thinks Perez may crumble under pressure and that Taira's youth and improvement over his career, plus having more notice for this fight, will lead to a finish. He also mentions the narrative of Taira opening doors for Japanese MMA.

Angelo picks Miles Johns, citing his youth, speed, and wrestling advantage. He notes Douglas is durable and a tough striker but is older and slowing down. He worries about Miles' cardio but believes his wrestling will be the difference. He mentions he has a moneyline bet on Miles.

Cody picks Miles Johns, citing his improved cardio and wrestling under Trey Ogden at Marathon MMA. He notes that Johns used to gas out but has shown better pacing in recent fights. Cody believes Johns can outwork Silva de Andrade by pressing him against the cage and using takedowns, especially since Silva de Andrade is 39 and cuts to 135, which may affect his durability. He expects a low-volume decision win for Johns.

Daniel Vreeland has a love-hate relationship with Miles Johns, noting his low output and tendency to back himself to the fence. He acknowledges Douglas Silva de Andrade's experience and durability but leans with Johns due to his physicality, youth, and confidence. He expects a low-output fight and sees Johns as the more physical younger guy.

Jacob picks Miles Johns but expects to be nervous during the fight. He recalls Miles gassing in the Cody Gibson fight and needing motivation. He thinks Douglas is a tough bowling ball and Miles may struggle with cardio again. He notes Miles should win but it will be close.

Johns has evolved and matured, allowing him to execute a game plan to wear on de Andrade's gas tank. By slowing him down early and evading his power, Johns will grind out a decision using clinching, takedowns, footwork, and output.

Paul picks Douglas Silva de Andrade as a dog, noting that he bets him almost every fight because he is always the underdog. He highlights Silva de Andrade's durability and power, and believes that judges are not rewarding wrestling control as much these days. Paul thinks Silva de Andrade can land the bigger shots and win, despite his low volume.

The MMA Guru picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, questioning whether Miles Johns can KO him. He notes Johns couldn't KO Cody Gibson and relies too much on overhands. He thinks Silva de Andrade has better wins (Cody Stamann, Sergey Morozov) and will make reads on Johns' power shots. He also mentions Silva de Andrade's competitive fights with Lerone Murphy and Nate Maness.

Angelo picks Lucas Almeida as an underdog, citing his deeper resume and higher level of competition. He notes Lucas is a powerful striker who comes forward, while Timmy is more technical but less experienced. He thinks Lucas's power and chin could be the difference, though Timmy's accuracy is a concern. He mentions the plus 165 odds are appealing.

Cody picks Lucas Almeida as a dog, arguing that Cuamba is a low-volume striker who relies on a knockout and has shown poor cardio and wrestling. He notes that Almeida has better wins and has fought tougher competition, including a competitive fight with Daniel Zellhuber. Cody believes Almeida's volume and leg kicks can overwhelm Cuamba, and that the line is too wide for a fighter of Cuamba's level.

Daniel Vreeland is concerned about Lucas Almeida's recent performances, noting he only landed two strikes in his last fight and looked stiff. He speculates a possible health issue. He likes Timothy Cuamba's technical soundness and ability to fight everywhere, though he's not the most physical. He believes Cuamba can pick Almeida apart and mix in wrestling.

Jacob picks Timmy, thinking he is the more technical striker and could mix in takedowns against Lucas's poor takedown defense. He notes Timmy held his own against Bolaji on short notice. He acknowledges Lucas is more dangerous but believes Timmy's technique will prevail.

Cuamba's lateral movement will frustrate Almeida, opening up takedown opportunities and allowing Cuamba to land damage from distance. The line is too wide for someone taking a step up in competition, but Cuamba's potential and body of work should get the judges' favor.

Paul agrees with Cody, stating that Cuamba is a low-volume Contender Series guy and that he would never bet that type of fighter at minus 200. He notes that Almeida gave Zellhuber a tough fight and that plus 180 is generous. Paul thinks Almeida can win with volume and pressure.

The MMA Guru picks Timmy Cuamba by decision. He notes Cuamba stepped up on short notice in his debut against Boki and took him to a split decision, showing composure. He thinks Cuamba has been tested and that Lucas Almeida's wins have asterisks, including a first-round KO loss to Andre Fili. He believes Cuamba's experience against a larger, powerful opponent in Boki will help him handle Almeida's physicality.

Angelo picks Garrett, citing his busy striking, forward pressure, and good takedown defense. He expects the fight to look like Garrett's win over Brad Katona, where he outworks Brady on the feet and wins a decision. He notes Brady struggles with pressure and has not shown he can dominate wrestling or striking.

Cody picks Garrett Armfield, comparing him to last week's Ludovit Klein as a bettable favorite. He notes Armfield's improvement under Trey Ogden at Marathon MMA, his striking advantage, and his takedown defense. Cody believes Armfield can keep the fight standing and outbox Hiestand, who is one-dimensional and lacks activity. He expects a clear decision win for Armfield.

Daniel Vreeland has seen big improvements in Garrett Armfield's game, especially his head movement, boxing, and volume. He notes Armfield hurts everyone he fights with his right hand. He acknowledges Brady Hiestand's durability and grinding style but believes if Armfield keeps it standing, he lands the better shots and possibly gets a knockout or wins a decision.

Jacob picks Garrett but expects a close fight. He notes Garrett's low stance and reaction to faints could be exploited by Brady's overhand right. He thinks Garrett's striking should be enough to win a decision, but Brady's relentless wrestling could make it competitive. He believes Garrett has high fight IQ and knows how to win rounds.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that he has backed Hiestand before and got lucky. He points out that Hiestand's takedowns don't lead to damage and judges are not rewarding control time anymore. Paul thinks Armfield can replicate his performance against Katona and win easily.

The MMA Guru picks Garrett Armfield by second-round TKO. He believes there is a massive boxing composure difference between the two, with Armfield being more composed and able to get back to his feet after takedowns. He notes Armfield's compact frame makes him hard to keep down, and that his win over Brad Katona has aged well. He expects Armfield to push forward and land punches on the feet for a TKO.

Angelo picks Asu confidently, citing his dominant wrestling, cardio, and ability to close distance. He notes Jose Johnson is a long Muay Thai striker with poor takedown defense, and Asu will take him down and control him. He expects Asu to be worth his DraftKings salary due to takedowns and potential finish.

Cody picks Almabayev but is hesitant due to the minus 600 line in a flyweight fight. He notes that Almabayev has good takedowns but poor top control, as he couldn't keep CJ Vergara down. He also highlights Jose Johnson's size (6 feet tall) and activity off his back, which could cause problems. Cody thinks Almabayev will likely win but the price is too high for comfort.

Daniel Vreeland picks Asu Almabayev as the favorite but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He acknowledges Jose Johnson's striking and scrambling ability but believes Almabayev's takedowns and ground game will be the difference. He notes Johnson gives up takedowns and is not a novice on the mat, but Almabayev should dominate if he gets top position.

Jacob picks Asu, questioning the love for Jose Johnson. He notes Jose was getting rolled by Chad Anheliger and needed a finish to avoid being 0-2. He thinks Asu's wrestling and scrambling are superior, and Jose's length won't help on the ground. He expects Asu to win easily.

Almabayev will drag the fight to the ground, but must be wary of Johnson's knees up the middle and long limbs. He will grind from top position and win on the scorecards. This is a bad stylistic matchup for Johnson making his flyweight debut.

Paul picks Almabayev, noting his well-rounded skills and takedown ability. He points out that Jose Johnson has been taken down frequently in the past and that Almabayev should be able to secure takedowns and control the fight. Paul expects Almabayev to win by decision or submission.

The MMA Guru picks Asu Almabayev, citing his good grappling that hasn't let him down, including dominant wins over Ode' Osbourne and CJ Vergara. He notes Jose Johnson has been taken down by worse grapplers and that Almabayev should be able to keep him down. He also comments on Johnson's extreme weight cut to flyweight, suggesting he will be frail and easy to toss around.

Angelo picks Josh Quinlan, noting his power and striking advantage over Adam Fugitt's loose boxing. He thinks Josh can defend takedowns and land meaningful shots. He also notes Adam's year layoff and submission loss, and that Vegas judges don't favor wrestlers. He considers it a close fight but leans Josh.

Cody picks Josh Quinlan, citing his power and ability to knock out Fugitt, who has been knocked down before. He notes that Quinlan is a BJJ black belt but relies on power punching. Cody is concerned about Quinlan's cardio and volume but thinks he can catch Fugitt early. He calls it a 'dogger pass' and is not highly confident.

Daniel Vreeland is critical of Adam Fugitt's athleticism, speed, and chin, calling him too slow and hittable for the UFC level. He favors Josh Quinlan for his power and athleticism advantage, despite Quinlan's past steroid failures and brutal loss. He believes Quinlan is the harder hitter and more athletic, and that Fugitt is the least athletic guy on the roster.

Jacob picks Josh Quinlan but is not betting it. He thinks Josh is the better striker and may use his jiu-jitsu if taken down. He notes Josh has been hard to trust since the USADA issues but considers this a step down in competition. He expects a close fight.

Fugitt is coming off a year-long layoff but has changed training camps to Fight Ready in Arizona. His pace, movement, and overall game should be too much for Quinlan's power punching style, leading to a decision win.

Paul picks Fugitt for the purpose of the show but states he has no intention of betting the fight. He notes that Fugitt's durability is questionable and Quinlan's power may be overrated. Paul thinks Fugitt could win if he pushes the pace and uses wrestling, but he is not confident.

The MMA Guru picks Josh Quinlan by TKO. He does not rate Adam Fugitt at all, calling him slow and lacking fast-twitch muscle fibers. He thinks Quinlan is more athletic, better in grappling speed and strength, and that Fugitt has to be consistently better for 15 minutes to win, which he doubts. He notes Quinlan took big shots from Danny Barlow and kept trying, and that Fugitt is not a threat to knock him out.

Angelo picks Nate Maness confidently, calling it a mismatch. He notes Nate is well-rounded with good submissions, power, and takedown defense, while Jimmy Flick is a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking and takedowns. He believes Nate wins 29 out of 30 times and should dominate, possibly by finish. He suggests parlaying Nate.

Cody picks Nate Maness, highlighting his takedown defense, power, and cardio. He notes that Maness has fought tough competition at 135 and is now at his natural weight class of 125. Cody believes Flick is one-dimensional (submission or bust) and that Maness will avoid submissions and knock him out or win a decision. He warns that flyweight fights can be unpredictable but is confident in Maness.

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Maness, citing his length and range striking. He expects Maness to pick Flick apart and make him shoot sloppy shots. He notes Flick's pattern of getting beaten up before finishing or being finished, and believes Maness will pound him out as Flick fatigues and pulls guard.

Jacob picks Nate, emphasizing he should not grapple with Jimmy and should stay on the feet to avoid submissions. He notes Nate's length and striking advantage, and that Jimmy is dangerous only if he gets a hold on the ground. He expects Nate to win easily by keeping the fight standing.

Maness should win by knockout if he keeps the fight upright, but Flick is squirmy and dangerous in the clinch and on the back. This makes me hesitant to take the chalk on Maness. I'll predict Maness by knockout but a small sprinkle on Flick by submission is not bad.

Paul picks Nate Maness, noting that Flick's only path to victory is a submission and that Maness has good takedown defense. He points out that Flick has been knocked out multiple times and that Maness has power. Paul thinks Maness will win, possibly by knockout.

The MMA Guru picks Nate Maness but expresses worry about Jimmy Flick's knack for pulling off random wins. He thinks Maness has a wrestling background and a standup advantage, and that he will be big enough at flyweight not to be manhandled. He criticizes Maness for his poor performance against Umar Nurmagomedov but believes Flick's inconsistency and past desire to quit make Maness the safer pick. He expects Maness to avoid submissions and find a TKO.

Angelo picks Gabriella but calls it a razor-thin fight that should be 50/50. He notes Gabriella is a powerful, technical striker but has poor takedown defense, though Carli is not a wrestler. He thinks Carli's volume and forward pressure could be effective, but Gabriella's power and experience should prevail. He advises caution after last week's underdog women wins.

Cody picks Gabriella Fernandes, arguing that she has been matched against wrestlers and spent most of her fights on her back, but against Judice, who is a brawler, she will have a chance to strike. He notes that Fernandes has cleaner striking and more power, while Judice has volume but may tire. Cody expects a competitive fight and thinks Fernandes can win a decision.

Daniel Vreeland picks Gabriella Fernandes, noting her physicality and knockout power. He acknowledges her weakness against wrestlers but believes Carli Judice is not a takedown threat. He expects Fernandes to have the bigger moments and win a decision, while Judice may outland in volume but lacks impact.

Jacob picks Gabriella, believing this fight is tailor-made for her as a striker against someone who won't shoot takedowns. He notes Carli showed toughness in her Contender Series fight but is inexperienced. He thinks Gabriella is the cleaner, more powerful striker and should win, though Carli could steal a round.

Fernandes' power, explosiveness, and physicality will be the difference in the striking realm. Both have holes in grappling, but the fight will stay standing and Fernandes will land more damage to get the victory.

Paul picks Judice by default (CF do - 'when in doubt, CF do'), but admits he has no strong opinion. He notes that Judice showed high volume in her Contender Series fight and that Fernandes has not faced a volume striker. However, he is not confident and calls it a pass.

The MMA Guru struggles with this pick, admitting he did research but can't remember details. He notes Carli Judice is younger (25) and has a reach advantage (68 inches vs 66), and that she had a great war on the Contender Series. He mentions Gabriella Fernandes has no takedowns in her career and is 30, but his reasoning is flimsy and he ultimately picks Judice almost arbitrarily.

Angelo picks Jeka, citing his one-punch power and the fact that Westin Wilson gets hit and has been knocked out. He notes Jeka also has grappling as a backup. He acknowledges Westin's length and karate style could cause trouble if Jeka headhunts and gasses, but ultimately believes Jeka's power is the difference. He suggests betting Jeka inside the distance or by KO.

Cody picks Westin Wilson as a live underdog, noting his size and reach advantage, and that Saragih is a low-volume striker with poor grappling. He acknowledges Wilson's poor chin but thinks he can use distance management and possibly submit Saragih. Cody calls it a 'sprinkle' and expects Wilson to either win by decision or get knocked out.

Daniel Vreeland is critical of Westin Wilson's athleticism, head movement, durability, and confidence at the UFC level. He believes Jeka Saragih, despite being green, has knockout power and will knock out Wilson. He sarcastically notes that Wilson is a favorable matchup for Saragih.

Jacob picks Jeka but does not trust him, recalling Jeka's previous loss as a lock of the week where he looked lost on the ground. He notes that Westin Wilson has been competitive against better fighters and can land shots that could clip Jeka. He thinks Jeka should win but is not confident and is not betting him.

Saragih has knockout power and should eventually find Wilson's chin and put him out. However, the odds are not worth it. Wilson is a poor man's Wonderboy and could be dangerous with a submission, but Saragih's power is the deciding factor.

Paul picks Jeka Saragih but is hesitant, noting that Saragih has power but is low-volume and has shown poor grappling. He thinks Saragih will likely land a big shot and knock out Wilson, but the price is too high for comfort. Paul prefers to look for a prop like Wilson by submission.

The MMA Guru picks Jeka Saragih, calling him a knockout artist with explosive power. He believes Saragih will land brutal KO shots early, referencing his spinning backfist and straight right hand. He dismisses Westin Wilson's flashy techniques and thinks Wilson has a good chin for KO shots, meaning Saragih will find the finish.

Angelo picks Mel Costa but at very low confidence, noting that Costa is the better fighter but makes poor decisions by wrestling when he should strike. He worries Costa can be pushed around and taken down by Shayilan's bully style. He emphasizes that Costa's wrestling should be plan B, not plan A, and that if he engages in clinch work, Shayilan will drag him to the ground.

Cody picks Melquizael Costa, noting his striking volume and movement, but is concerned about his last performance where he gassed out against Steve Garcia. He thinks Costa can outwork Nuerdanbieke if he fights smart and doesn't overuse wrestling. Cody expects Costa to win a decision but is not highly confident.

Daniel Vreeland is not high on Melquizael Costa, calling him overrated and lacking killer instinct. He favors Shayilan Nuerdanbieke's power and wrestling, though he notes gassing issues. He believes Nuerdanbieke can hurt Costa or at least win the first round, and calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

Jacob picks Shayilan, expecting a wrestling vs. jiu-jitsu battle where Shayilan's powerful control wrestling will be key. He thinks Shayilan can get takedowns and keep control for at least two rounds to win a decision. He notes that if Costa is ever in a scramble when Shayilan is tired, Costa is more dangerous, but overall favors Shayilan's wrestling.

Costa's movement and Jiu-Jitsu should keep him out of trouble from Nuerdanbieke. As long as Costa stays conscious early, his Jiu-Jitsu will outlast Nuerdanbieke, who will slow down, allowing Costa to take control and potentially find a submission.

Paul picks Melquizael Costa, citing his superior striking and range management. He notes that Nuerdanbieke has power but low volume and may rely on wrestling. Paul thinks Costa can win with volume if he keeps the fight standing, but is not confident due to Costa's gas tank issues.

The MMA Guru picks Melquizael Costa because he believes Costa is better on the feet, with nasty front kicks, head kicks, and question mark kicks. He thinks Shayilan's ground game is not dominant enough to expose Costa's weaknesses, and that Shayilan's style of trading hooks and shooting double legs won't work. He notes both have lost to Steve Garcia.

Angelo picks Josephine at high confidence, citing her well-rounded game and ability to mix in takedowns. He acknowledges Julia is the more dangerous striker with more power, but believes Josephine will wrestle more if needed. He also mentions he has a bet on Julia by win inside the distance (decision no action) as a hedge, because Josephine is unlikely to finish and Julia could finish.

Cody picks Josefine Knutsson, highlighting her Muay Thai, clinch work, and physical strength. He notes that she has good takedown defense and has been working on her wrestling. Cody believes she can control the fight in the clinch and on the feet, and win a decision. He is confident in her ability to outwork Polastri.

Daniel Vreeland picks Josefine Lindgren Knutsson, citing her technical striking and clinch work. He believes she can outpoint Julia Polastri at range and neutralize her in the clinch. He acknowledges Polastri's chance if she makes it a brawl but thinks Knutsson will pick her apart.

Jacob picks Julia as his lock of the week, though not super confident. He describes Julia as a tough fighter who absorbs damage and returns it with more power, comparing her to vibranium. He thinks Julia will walk forward, eat shots, and eventually overwhelm Josephine with pressure and power. He expects a close decision and notes that Julia's takedown defense and ability to get back up are key.

Knutsson's aggressiveness and physicality will be the difference, allowing her to dictate the pace, put Polastri in bad positions, grind her out, and win a decision.

Paul picks Knutsson but is hesitant, noting that he is not confident in her ability to get takedowns early. He thinks the fight could be competitive and that Polastri has experience against tough opponents. Paul prefers to avoid betting this fight.

The MMA Guru picks Josefine Knutsson by TKO in the later rounds. He believes Knutsson is much better on the feet and that Polastri needs to earn respect on the feet before getting takedowns, which she won't be able to do against Knutsson. He trusts Knutsson's takedown defense and thinks Polastri's path to victory requires walking through fire that she can't handle.