Career Averages - Stephanie Luciano
Career Averages - Ravena Oliveira
Stephanie Luciano
Ravena Oliveira
Stephanie Luciano - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Luciano | 0 | 60 of 124 | 48% | 80 of 153 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:53 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 0 | 24 of 103 | 23% | 36 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephanie Luciano | 0 | 25 of 56 | 44% | 25 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 0 | 14 of 54 | 25% | 14 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Stephanie Luciano | 0 | 26 of 53 | 49% | 39 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 41 | 21% | 13 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Stephanie Luciano | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 16 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:55 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Luciano | 60 of 124 | 48% | 22 of 69 | 14 of 23 | 24 of 32 | 46 of 102 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 16 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 24 of 103 | 23% | 14 of 76 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 22 | 24 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephanie Luciano | 25 of 56 | 44% | 6 of 26 | 7 of 12 | 12 of 18 | 22 of 52 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 14 of 54 | 25% | 10 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 12 | 14 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stephanie Luciano | 26 of 53 | 49% | 11 of 33 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 20 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 9 of 41 | 21% | 4 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 9 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Stephanie Luciano | 9 of 15 | 60% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident Stephanie Luciano wins, estimating she wins 95 out of 100 times. He notes her busy striking, forward pressure, and cardio, but doubts she will get a finish. He highlights Ravena Oliveira's long layoff, knee surgery, and weight class drop as major disadvantages. He expects a dominant decision for Luciano.
Big Brady notes Oliveira is coming down two weight classes and hasn't fought in two years, making her unpredictable. He likes Luciano's volume, cardio, and improving takedown defense. He thinks Luciano is the much better fighter but worries about Oliveira's potential improvements. He picks Luciano by decision.
Cody picks Luciano, citing her volume and striking. He notes Oliveira is moving down two weight classes and has poor striking. Luciano's takedown defense has improved. Cody expects Luciano to win by decision.
Connor picks Ravena Oliveira, believing she will be too big and strong for Luciano. He notes that Oliveira is a flyweight/bantamweight cutting to strawweight, and that she knows how to be a blanket. Connor dislikes the matchup but expects Oliveira to overwhelm Luciano physically.
James sees Luciano as levels above Oliveira in all areas: striking, jiu-jitsu, wrestling, and cardio. He believes Luciano should be an even bigger favorite and expects a dominant win, though he is unsure about a finish. He plans to look for prop value closer to fight night.
The host believes Oliveira will struggle in her return after two years away, and Luciano will put it on her with striking and takedowns. He expects a clear win for Luciano on the scorecards.
Paul picks Luciano, citing her volume and striking ability. He notes Oliveira's takedowns are ineffective and she loses striking exchanges. Luciano's improvements in takedown defense are key. Paul expects Luciano to win.
The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano over Taila Santos (Ravena Oliveira). He notes both are not great but Luciano had a close fight with Sam Hughes, who he believes would dominate Santos. He sees Luciano as younger and possibly improving to Hughes' level. He predicts a decision win, 29-28.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Oliveira. He notes that Luciano showed promise against Sam Hughes but was ultimately overwhelmed by power and size, and that Oliveira is even bigger. Zane thinks the odds are off and Luciano shouldn't be such a big favorite.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Luciano | 0 | 82 of 251 | 32% | 101 of 273 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 76 of 152 | 50% | 146 of 233 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 4:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephanie Luciano | 0 | 42 of 104 | 40% | 52 of 114 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 35 of 68 | 51% | 42 of 75 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | Stephanie Luciano | 0 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 20 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 71 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:19 | |
| 3 | Stephanie Luciano | 0 | 22 of 103 | 21% | 29 of 112 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 28 of 55 | 50% | 33 of 60 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Luciano | 82 of 251 | 32% | 45 of 202 | 23 of 34 | 14 of 15 | 79 of 246 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Hughes | 76 of 152 | 50% | 43 of 113 | 15 of 20 | 18 of 19 | 69 of 144 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephanie Luciano | 42 of 104 | 40% | 21 of 76 | 13 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 41 of 102 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Hughes | 35 of 68 | 51% | 21 of 48 | 6 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 32 of 64 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stephanie Luciano | 18 of 44 | 40% | 9 of 35 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Hughes | 13 of 29 | 44% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Stephanie Luciano | 22 of 103 | 21% | 15 of 91 | 3 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 103 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Hughes | 28 of 55 | 50% | 14 of 41 | 8 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 28 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Stephanie Luciano over Sam Hughes. He believes Luciano is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, and cardio. He notes that Hughes is a pressure fighter but Luciano won't fade early. He also mentions the plus 3.5 round line as a potential value bet on Hughes.
Big Brady picks Stephanie Luciano, noting her excellent cardio and output, which should allow her to maintain pace for all 15 minutes. He observes that Sam Hughes' wins come against opponents who slow down after the first 7-8 minutes, but Luciano won't fade. Brady thinks if Luciano can stuff takedowns, she will pick Hughes apart on the feet. He predicts a decision win but does not like the -225 price.
Cody picks Yur Medeiros, but with low confidence due to his volatile style and durability issues. He notes that Medeiros is a finisher but has been knocked out. He prefers the under on the fight, expecting a finish. He considers Gilbert Urbina as a dog play because of the high line.
Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.
The host believes Luciano's striking advantage will prove decisive, though the fight might be closer than odds indicate. He expects Luciano to land more damage and win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Gilbert Urbina as a dog, citing Medeiros's inconsistency and durability issues. He notes that Urbina has a reach advantage and has been off for a while, possibly making improvements. He believes the line is too high and that Urbina has a chance to win, especially if he can avoid early knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano, citing her improved takedown defense after facing an opponent who shot 24 takedowns in her last fight. He notes she's tall for the division with nasty striking, planting her feet when she throws punches. He dismisses Sam Hughes as a 'fraud checker' who has beaten prospects but thinks Luciano's takedown defense and striking will be too much. He also suggests judges might rob Hughes even if she wins, so he's confident in Luciano.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Luciano | 1 | 72 of 175 | 41% | 87 of 190 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Talita Alencar | 0 | 41 of 151 | 27% | 45 of 159 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephanie Luciano | 0 | 26 of 67 | 38% | 27 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Talita Alencar | 0 | 17 of 55 | 30% | 17 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Stephanie Luciano | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 31 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Talita Alencar | 0 | 9 of 41 | 21% | 9 of 42 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 3 | Stephanie Luciano | 1 | 22 of 54 | 40% | 29 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Talita Alencar | 0 | 15 of 55 | 27% | 19 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Luciano | 72 of 175 | 41% | 49 of 139 | 14 of 22 | 9 of 14 | 66 of 167 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Talita Alencar | 41 of 151 | 27% | 20 of 100 | 16 of 44 | 5 of 7 | 36 of 141 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephanie Luciano | 26 of 67 | 38% | 18 of 52 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Talita Alencar | 17 of 55 | 30% | 12 of 47 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stephanie Luciano | 24 of 54 | 44% | 15 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 21 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Talita Alencar | 9 of 41 | 21% | 4 of 28 | 4 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Stephanie Luciano | 22 of 54 | 40% | 16 of 45 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 19 of 49 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Talita Alencar | 15 of 55 | 27% | 4 of 25 | 9 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 49 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Luciano (-185), Alencar (+154)
Round 1
A women’s strawweight rematch kicks off the streamlined undercard, as Alencar (5-0-1, 1-0 UFC) takes on Luciano (5-1-1, 0-0 UFC) for the second time in less than a year. The 115-pound hopefuls fought to a draw on Dana White’s Contender Series in September. Luciano was awarded a UFC contract for her efforts and Alencar received a traditional call-up for her Octagon debut, as she eked out a split decision over Rayanne dos Santos at UFC Fight Night 233 on Dec. 9. Jerin Valel draws the assignment as the referee. A glove touch gets us underway. Luciano takes the center and eats a head kick right out of the gate. Fortunately for her, there was not much oomph behind it. Alencar fires a leg kick, circles out into open space and steers clear of her opponent’s punches. Luciano tries and fails to corner Alencar, who continues to circle effectively. Luciano now using her seven-inch reach advantage to get her jab and one-twos in gear. She probes to the body, then misfires on an overhand right. Luciano sneaks in a left hook, then gets back to the jab. Midway through the first round, and neither woman has established too much of an advantage. Alencar mixes in a body-head combination, then fakes a takedown. Luciano jabs and manages to dodge the return fire. Ninety seconds to go. Luciano jabs, feints a kick and scores with a pawing right hook. Alencar swings wildly with both hands and misses. They clinch, and Luciano shoots a few knees to the body, then punches on the break. A flying knee from Luciano lands to the body. Jumping switch kick from Luciano gets blocked, but a knee that follows bloodies Alencar’s nose.
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Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Round 2
Luciano immediately gets back to the jab. Alencar ducks in for a takedown but fails to corral her counterpart, and Luciano escapes to a standing position. Luciano separates and unleashes more jabs. A spinning backfist from Alencar gets blocked. Both women tend to telegraph their strikes. Luciano sprawls on attempted takedown, takes top position briefly and disengages. More jabs score. Not going well for Alencar thus far. Leg kick from Luciano, then a chopping right hand followed by a left hook. Alencar eats a head kick without issue. Luciano blocks one in return, then connects again upstairs. Alencar now reaching on her punches, as she continues to struggle to find the mark. A minute to go, and Luciano is in charge. Side kick from Luciano grazes Alencar’s midsection. She shoots in response, only to get shut down along the fence. Luciano separates and hammers home a body kick. Alencar fires back but generally with single shots. Luciano whiffs on a spinning backfist and denies a takedown as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Round 3
Luciano smiles at her adversary at the start of Round 3, and she has every reason to do so. They trade leg kicks. Alencar looks to pressure, but Luciano calmly circles away. Right cross-left hook combination from Luciano. She counters an Alencar leg kick with multiple punches. To no one’s surprise, Alencar needs this fight on the mat to have a real chance. Luciano denies a takedown, blocks a head kick and connects with a clean one-two. She backs Alencar to the fence with punches, engages her in the clinch and uses her height and leverage to her advantage. They separate midway through the round. Luciano drops her fellow Brazilian with a jumping knee. Alencar resorts to the butt scoot while she clears her head. Back on her feet now. Luciano looks to jab, throws a right hand over the top and engages Alencar in the clinch with double underhooks. They separate. Time running out on Alencar. Luciano leaving her feet to throw kicks and knees more and more as her comfort level increases. She lands a close-range elbow and a left hook. Alencar tries to answer. No luck. Luciano coasts to the finish line.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Luciano (30-27 Luciano)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Luciano (30-27 Luciano)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Luciano (30-27 Luciano)
The Official Result
Stephanie Luciano def. Talita Alencar—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Luciano because she showed toughness and cardio in the first fight, biting down on her mouthpiece and coming forward while Alencar gassed. He notes that Alencar went 4 for 24 on takedowns and without takedowns she cannot win. However, he acknowledges it's a tricky rematch and Alencar could win if she gets her wrestling going.
Cody agrees, highlighting Luciano's grappling defense and striking advantage. He notes Alencar's striking is stiff and she mostly holds opponents down. Cody expects Luciano to stuff takedowns and win a decision or late TKO.
Luciano is the better striker and should have a decided advantage if she keeps the fight standing. However, her takedown defense and fight IQ are concerns, and Alencar could make it close if she completes takedowns. Luciano's youth and damage output lead to a decision win, but confidence is low due to ring rust and Alencar's BJJ threat.
Paul picks Luciano, noting her youth, volume, and ability to survive on the ground. He thinks she can keep the fight standing more this time and win by decision or late TKO. He mentions her dengue fever layoff but believes she should be improved.
The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano based on her size advantage and ability to stuff takedowns. He notes that in their first fight on the Contender Series, Talita Alencar had control time but couldn't finish, and Luciano won the third round decisively. He believes Luciano's defensive jiu-jitsu and striking will carry her to victory in the rematch.
Ravena Oliveira - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shanelle Dyer | 0 | 49 of 78 | 62% | 50 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 0 | 26 of 80 | 32% | 32 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shanelle Dyer | 0 | 32 of 47 | 68% | 33 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 0 | 20 of 67 | 29% | 26 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Shanelle Dyer | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 17 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shanelle Dyer | 49 of 78 | 62% | 22 of 42 | 13 of 17 | 14 of 19 | 35 of 57 | 8 of 11 | 6 of 10 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 26 of 80 | 32% | 16 of 65 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 5 | 24 of 78 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shanelle Dyer | 32 of 47 | 68% | 13 of 24 | 8 of 8 | 11 of 15 | 28 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 20 of 67 | 29% | 11 of 54 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 4 | 18 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Shanelle Dyer | 17 of 31 | 54% | 9 of 18 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 14 | 4 of 7 | 6 of 10 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 6 of 13 | 46% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Shanelle Dyer despite her recent Contender Series loss where she was dropped three times. He notes she is a dangerous striker, incredibly tough, and never stops moving forward. He believes Ravena Oliveira can be hit and doesn't see her having success. He acknowledges the -400 odds seem crazy but points to Dyer's ability to put a beating on someone.
Big Brady is very confident in Shanelle Dyer, calling her the much better striker and noting that Ravena Oliveira has no power to make Dyer pay for her defensive flaws. He points out that Oliveira hasn't won a fight in five years, is 0-2 in the UFC, and didn't attempt any takedowns in her last fight. Even if Oliveira tries to grapple, Dyer has good takedown defense. He predicts a decision win but wouldn't be shocked by a finish.
Cody agrees, noting Dyer's youth and potential, while Oliveira has been unimpressive. He expects Dyer to win.
Connor picks Shanelle Dyer but with hesitation, agreeing that the Fordo fight showed defensive issues. He notes that Oliveira doesn't have the volume that Fordo had, which could help Dyer. Connor still sees Dyer as a good prospect with excellent kicking and teeps, but acknowledges she needs to improve her defense.
Daniel Vreeland picks Shanelle Dyer to win her UFC debut. He praises her striking superiority and expects her to keep the fight standing, where she will outclass Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's path via grappling but doubts she can implement it.
Daniel picks Dyer (Cheyanne Vlismas) to win, possibly by finish. He notes her striking prowess and thinks Oliveira has nothing for her. He expects Dyer to make a statement in her debut.
Dyer is the better striker and has home advantage, but the odds are aggressive for a UFC debut. The skill gap isn't huge, and Oliveira could nick a round. Dyer should get the job done, but the value isn't great.
James picks Shanelle Dyer, believing she is the better striker and will outgun Oliveira on the feet. He notes that Oliveira's grappling is not strong enough to compensate. He thinks Dyer will win by decision or possibly finish.
The host is confident in Shanelle Dyer winning inside the distance. He notes Dyer's Muay Thai skills and improved grappling, while Oliveira has shown poor takedown defense and mediocre striking. He expects Dyer to dominate on the feet or on the ground, possibly via submission. He mentions a submission prop at +1000 as a potential sprinkle.
Paul thinks Dyer's boxing and speed will overwhelm Oliveira, who lacks wrestling and power. He expects a decision win for Dyer.
The MMA Guru picks Shanelle Dyer over Ravena Oliveira. He notes Dyer looked technical in her Contender Series fight despite a loss, while Oliveira has lost to lower-level UFC fighters. He believes Dyer's technical skills will get the job done.
Zane picks Shanelle Dyer but with hesitation, noting that her fight against Carol Fordo exposed defensive flaws and a lack of experience being hurt. He still thinks Dyer is a better prospect with good technical skills (jab, low kicks, teeps), but Oliveira can crack and won't go away easily. Zane hopes Dyer has learned from the Fordo fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Luciano | 0 | 60 of 124 | 48% | 80 of 153 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:53 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 0 | 24 of 103 | 23% | 36 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephanie Luciano | 0 | 25 of 56 | 44% | 25 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 0 | 14 of 54 | 25% | 14 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Stephanie Luciano | 0 | 26 of 53 | 49% | 39 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 41 | 21% | 13 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Stephanie Luciano | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 16 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:55 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Luciano | 60 of 124 | 48% | 22 of 69 | 14 of 23 | 24 of 32 | 46 of 102 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 16 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 24 of 103 | 23% | 14 of 76 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 22 | 24 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephanie Luciano | 25 of 56 | 44% | 6 of 26 | 7 of 12 | 12 of 18 | 22 of 52 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 14 of 54 | 25% | 10 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 12 | 14 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stephanie Luciano | 26 of 53 | 49% | 11 of 33 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 20 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 9 of 41 | 21% | 4 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 9 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Stephanie Luciano | 9 of 15 | 60% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident Stephanie Luciano wins, estimating she wins 95 out of 100 times. He notes her busy striking, forward pressure, and cardio, but doubts she will get a finish. He highlights Ravena Oliveira's long layoff, knee surgery, and weight class drop as major disadvantages. He expects a dominant decision for Luciano.
Big Brady notes Oliveira is coming down two weight classes and hasn't fought in two years, making her unpredictable. He likes Luciano's volume, cardio, and improving takedown defense. He thinks Luciano is the much better fighter but worries about Oliveira's potential improvements. He picks Luciano by decision.
Cody picks Luciano, citing her volume and striking. He notes Oliveira is moving down two weight classes and has poor striking. Luciano's takedown defense has improved. Cody expects Luciano to win by decision.
Connor picks Ravena Oliveira, believing she will be too big and strong for Luciano. He notes that Oliveira is a flyweight/bantamweight cutting to strawweight, and that she knows how to be a blanket. Connor dislikes the matchup but expects Oliveira to overwhelm Luciano physically.
James sees Luciano as levels above Oliveira in all areas: striking, jiu-jitsu, wrestling, and cardio. He believes Luciano should be an even bigger favorite and expects a dominant win, though he is unsure about a finish. He plans to look for prop value closer to fight night.
The host believes Oliveira will struggle in her return after two years away, and Luciano will put it on her with striking and takedowns. He expects a clear win for Luciano on the scorecards.
Paul picks Luciano, citing her volume and striking ability. He notes Oliveira's takedowns are ineffective and she loses striking exchanges. Luciano's improvements in takedown defense are key. Paul expects Luciano to win.
The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano over Taila Santos (Ravena Oliveira). He notes both are not great but Luciano had a close fight with Sam Hughes, who he believes would dominate Santos. He sees Luciano as younger and possibly improving to Hughes' level. He predicts a decision win, 29-28.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Oliveira. He notes that Luciano showed promise against Sam Hughes but was ultimately overwhelmed by power and size, and that Oliveira is even bigger. Zane thinks the odds are off and Luciano shouldn't be such a big favorite.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tainara Lisboa | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 77 of 106 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 6:55 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 61 of 87 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tainara Lisboa | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 28 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 19 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 | |
| 2 | Tainara Lisboa | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 34 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tainara Lisboa | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 15 of 24 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 34 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tainara Lisboa | 18 of 35 | 51% | 9 of 24 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 20 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 3 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 15 of 31 | 48% | 10 of 23 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tainara Lisboa | 8 of 13 | 61% | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 4 of 12 | 33% | 1 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tainara Lisboa | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 3 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tainara Lisboa | 8 of 16 | 50% | 4 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Ravena Oliveira | 11 of 18 | 61% | 9 of 13 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo slightly leans Lisboa, thinking she can win with clinch work, but he calls her a 'parlay buster' and expects a sloppy fight. He plans to stay away from betting on this one.
Big Brady picks Tainara Lisboa to win by second-round submission. He was impressed by her performance against Jessica Rose Clark, noting improved striking and grappling. He thinks Oliveira is a step down in competition and expects Lisboa to dominate on the ground.
Cody picks Lisboa, noting her superior striking and grappling. He highlights her win over Jessica-Rose Clark via rear-naked choke and her kickboxing background. Cody believes Oliveira has little to offer and that Lisboa can win anywhere the fight goes. He suggests Lisboa inside the distance as a prop.
The host picks Tainara Lisboa, citing her superior striking technique and grappling improvements. He questions Oliveira's level of competition and believes Lisboa is far more complete. He expects a submission win but notes the minus 315 price is a bit wide for a young UFC fighter.
Paul picks Lisboa, citing her well-rounded skills and the lack of quality opposition for Oliveira. He notes that Lisboa has a 100% finish rate at 135 lbs and that Oliveira's tape shows she is not on the same level. Paul expects Lisboa to dominate and finish the fight.
The MMA Guru picks Tainara Lisboa over Ravena Oliveira, though he admits there's not much to go on. He notes Lisboa has a UFC win over Jessica-Rose Clark and has had time off to improve. He criticizes Oliveira's competition, saying her opponents have poor records (0-2 after fighting her). He believes Lisboa's experience and preparation give her the edge.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo is confident Stephanie Luciano wins, estimating she wins 95 out of 100 times. He notes her busy striking, forward pressure, and cardio, but doubts she will get a finish. He highlights Ravena Oliveira's long layoff, knee surgery, and weight class drop as major disadvantages. He expects a dominant decision for Luciano.
Big Brady notes Oliveira is coming down two weight classes and hasn't fought in two years, making her unpredictable. He likes Luciano's volume, cardio, and improving takedown defense. He thinks Luciano is the much better fighter but worries about Oliveira's potential improvements. He picks Luciano by decision.
Cody picks Luciano, citing her volume and striking. He notes Oliveira is moving down two weight classes and has poor striking. Luciano's takedown defense has improved. Cody expects Luciano to win by decision.
Connor picks Ravena Oliveira, believing she will be too big and strong for Luciano. He notes that Oliveira is a flyweight/bantamweight cutting to strawweight, and that she knows how to be a blanket. Connor dislikes the matchup but expects Oliveira to overwhelm Luciano physically.
James sees Luciano as levels above Oliveira in all areas: striking, jiu-jitsu, wrestling, and cardio. He believes Luciano should be an even bigger favorite and expects a dominant win, though he is unsure about a finish. He plans to look for prop value closer to fight night.
The host believes Oliveira will struggle in her return after two years away, and Luciano will put it on her with striking and takedowns. He expects a clear win for Luciano on the scorecards.
Paul picks Luciano, citing her volume and striking ability. He notes Oliveira's takedowns are ineffective and she loses striking exchanges. Luciano's improvements in takedown defense are key. Paul expects Luciano to win.
The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano over Taila Santos (Ravena Oliveira). He notes both are not great but Luciano had a close fight with Sam Hughes, who he believes would dominate Santos. He sees Luciano as younger and possibly improving to Hughes' level. He predicts a decision win, 29-28.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Oliveira. He notes that Luciano showed promise against Sam Hughes but was ultimately overwhelmed by power and size, and that Oliveira is even bigger. Zane thinks the odds are off and Luciano shouldn't be such a big favorite.
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