UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen Next Fight
Age 26
Height 5' 6"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 29
Height 5' 5"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Stephanie Luciano
5.2 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.04 SApM
64.0% Str. Def.
1.3 TD Avg
71.0% TD Acc.
80.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Ravena Oliveira
1.91 SLpM
30.0% Str. Acc.
3.72 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
0.88 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
46.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Stephanie Luciano
Moneyline
Caesars -300
KO/TKO
FanDuel +650
Submission
BetMGM +1400
Decision
BetRivers -143
Ravena Oliveira
Moneyline
FanDuel +265
KO/TKO
BetWay +1400
Submission
BetMGM +1800
Decision
FanDuel +490
Stephanie Luciano - Fight History
Submission R3 2:50 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stephanie Luciano 0 60 of 124 48% 80 of 153 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:53
Ravena Oliveira 0 24 of 103 23% 36 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stephanie Luciano 0 25 of 56 44% 25 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ravena Oliveira 0 14 of 54 25% 14 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Stephanie Luciano 0 26 of 53 49% 39 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:58
Ravena Oliveira 0 9 of 41 21% 13 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Stephanie Luciano 0 9 of 15 60% 16 of 30 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:55
Ravena Oliveira 0 1 of 8 12% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stephanie Luciano 60 of 124 48% 22 of 69 14 of 23 24 of 32 46 of 102 5 of 6 9 of 16
Ravena Oliveira 24 of 103 23% 14 of 76 3 of 5 7 of 22 24 of 102 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stephanie Luciano 25 of 56 44% 6 of 26 7 of 12 12 of 18 22 of 52 3 of 4 0 of 0
Ravena Oliveira 14 of 54 25% 10 of 40 1 of 2 3 of 12 14 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Stephanie Luciano 26 of 53 49% 11 of 33 6 of 10 9 of 10 20 of 45 2 of 2 4 of 6
Ravena Oliveira 9 of 41 21% 4 of 30 1 of 2 4 of 9 9 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Stephanie Luciano 9 of 15 60% 5 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 10
Ravena Oliveira 1 of 8 12% 0 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Angelo is confident Stephanie Luciano wins, estimating she wins 95 out of 100 times. He notes her busy striking, forward pressure, and cardio, but doubts she will get a finish. He highlights Ravena Oliveira's long layoff, knee surgery, and weight class drop as major disadvantages. He expects a dominant decision for Luciano.

Decision win likely, low fantasy scoring expected
"I think Stephanie wins this fight. I think she wins it if they fight 100 times, I think she wins 95 of them."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Big Brady notes Oliveira is coming down two weight classes and hasn't fought in two years, making her unpredictable. He likes Luciano's volume, cardio, and improving takedown defense. He thinks Luciano is the much better fighter but worries about Oliveira's potential improvements. He picks Luciano by decision.

"I gotta go Luciano here. I actually really like Luciano. I like the volume, the cardio, uh the takedown defense looks to be getting better... It's going to be Stephanie Luciano to win by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Cody picks Luciano, citing her volume and striking. He notes Oliveira is moving down two weight classes and has poor striking. Luciano's takedown defense has improved. Cody expects Luciano to win by decision.

"I'm going to go with Stephanie Luciano, but I don't feel good about this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ravena Oliveira

Connor picks Ravena Oliveira, believing she will be too big and strong for Luciano. He notes that Oliveira is a flyweight/bantamweight cutting to strawweight, and that she knows how to be a blanket. Connor dislikes the matchup but expects Oliveira to overwhelm Luciano physically.

Luciano opened -325, now -280; Oliveira opened +275, now +240. Connor is surprised Luciano is such a big favorite.
"I'm gonna take ravine Olivera. I think she's just gonna be too big and strong."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

James sees Luciano as levels above Oliveira in all areas: striking, jiu-jitsu, wrestling, and cardio. He believes Luciano should be an even bigger favorite and expects a dominant win, though he is unsure about a finish. He plans to look for prop value closer to fight night.

"I feel like Stephanie Luciano is going to get the win. You know, I just feel like she's levels above Rava Olivea and it's reflected in her price tag. And I honestly believe that it could be even a little …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

The host believes Oliveira will struggle in her return after two years away, and Luciano will put it on her with striking and takedowns. He expects a clear win for Luciano on the scorecards.

"I think that Olivera will struggle in her return after two years away from action and Luciano will really put it on her with her striking."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Paul picks Luciano, citing her volume and striking ability. He notes Oliveira's takedowns are ineffective and she loses striking exchanges. Luciano's improvements in takedown defense are key. Paul expects Luciano to win.

"Luchiano for volume, striking ability, everything like that, it's going to be the pick for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano over Taila Santos (Ravena Oliveira). He notes both are not great but Luciano had a close fight with Sam Hughes, who he believes would dominate Santos. He sees Luciano as younger and possibly improving to Hughes' level. He predicts a decision win, 29-28.

decision win
"I'm going to go with Stephanie Luciano to win this fight by decision, a classic women's 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ravena Oliveira

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Oliveira. He notes that Luciano showed promise against Sam Hughes but was ultimately overwhelmed by power and size, and that Oliveira is even bigger. Zane thinks the odds are off and Luciano shouldn't be such a big favorite.

"I agree... Olivera... Hate to say it."
LOSS vs Sam Hughes
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stephanie Luciano 0 82 of 251 32% 101 of 273 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
Sam Hughes 0 76 of 152 50% 146 of 233 3 of 8 37% 1 0 4:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stephanie Luciano 0 42 of 104 40% 52 of 114 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Sam Hughes 0 35 of 68 51% 42 of 75 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:47
2 Stephanie Luciano 0 18 of 44 40% 20 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 13 of 29 44% 71 of 98 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:19
3 Stephanie Luciano 0 22 of 103 21% 29 of 112 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
Sam Hughes 0 28 of 55 50% 33 of 60 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stephanie Luciano 82 of 251 32% 45 of 202 23 of 34 14 of 15 79 of 246 3 of 5 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 76 of 152 50% 43 of 113 15 of 20 18 of 19 69 of 144 3 of 4 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stephanie Luciano 42 of 104 40% 21 of 76 13 of 19 8 of 9 41 of 102 1 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 35 of 68 51% 21 of 48 6 of 11 8 of 9 32 of 64 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Stephanie Luciano 18 of 44 40% 9 of 35 7 of 7 2 of 2 16 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 13 of 29 44% 8 of 24 1 of 1 4 of 4 9 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 4
3 Stephanie Luciano 22 of 103 21% 15 of 91 3 of 8 4 of 4 22 of 103 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 28 of 55 50% 14 of 41 8 of 8 6 of 6 28 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Angelo picks Stephanie Luciano over Sam Hughes. He believes Luciano is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, and cardio. He notes that Hughes is a pressure fighter but Luciano won't fade early. He also mentions the plus 3.5 round line as a potential value bet on Hughes.

Sam Hughes +3.5 round line
"Stephanie luchano is going to be the pick and honestly if the odds are just who wins this fight I think the odds are correct."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Big Brady picks Stephanie Luciano, noting her excellent cardio and output, which should allow her to maintain pace for all 15 minutes. He observes that Sam Hughes' wins come against opponents who slow down after the first 7-8 minutes, but Luciano won't fade. Brady thinks if Luciano can stuff takedowns, she will pick Hughes apart on the feet. He predicts a decision win but does not like the -225 price.

Luciano by decision
"I like Luciano here... I think she wins a decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Yur Medeiros, but with low confidence due to his volatile style and durability issues. He notes that Medeiros is a finisher but has been knocked out. He prefers the under on the fight, expecting a finish. He considers Gilbert Urbina as a dog play because of the high line.

Under 1.5 rounds at -155
"I think I this just feels like unders uh for me whether it's fight doesn't or you know I don't know if that line even still exists but uh if you can find an under two and a half and …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

The host believes Luciano's striking advantage will prove decisive, though the fight might be closer than odds indicate. He expects Luciano to land more damage and win on the scorecards.

Hughes is always a dog at plus money
"I believe hu uh Luciano's striking Advantage here will prove prove fo for for her it might play out closer than the odds indicate and Hughes is always a dog when she's uh at this plus money but I still …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul picks Gilbert Urbina as a dog, citing Medeiros's inconsistency and durability issues. He notes that Urbina has a reach advantage and has been off for a while, possibly making improvements. He believes the line is too high and that Urbina has a chance to win, especially if he can avoid early knockout.

"I'm going to take Gilbert or Beina. Strictly a system play. Too big of a line. If one of these big favorites is is is going to do something stupid, it's probably Euros Medic that kind of fights like a, …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano, citing her improved takedown defense after facing an opponent who shot 24 takedowns in her last fight. He notes she's tall for the division with nasty striking, planting her feet when she throws punches. He dismisses Sam Hughes as a 'fraud checker' who has beaten prospects but thinks Luciano's takedown defense and striking will be too much. He also suggests judges might rob Hughes even if she wins, so he's confident in Luciano.

"I'm going to go of Stephanie Luciano I don't think the judges will even let Sam Hughes get another fraud check at women's MMA I just don't think so"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stephanie Luciano 1 72 of 175 41% 87 of 190 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Talita Alencar 0 41 of 151 27% 45 of 159 1 of 10 10% 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stephanie Luciano 0 26 of 67 38% 27 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Talita Alencar 0 17 of 55 30% 17 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Stephanie Luciano 0 24 of 54 44% 31 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Talita Alencar 0 9 of 41 21% 9 of 42 1 of 8 12% 0 0 0:21
3 Stephanie Luciano 1 22 of 54 40% 29 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Talita Alencar 0 15 of 55 27% 19 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stephanie Luciano 72 of 175 41% 49 of 139 14 of 22 9 of 14 66 of 167 5 of 7 1 of 1
Talita Alencar 41 of 151 27% 20 of 100 16 of 44 5 of 7 36 of 141 5 of 9 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stephanie Luciano 26 of 67 38% 18 of 52 5 of 10 3 of 5 26 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Talita Alencar 17 of 55 30% 12 of 47 3 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Stephanie Luciano 24 of 54 44% 15 of 42 5 of 7 4 of 5 21 of 51 3 of 3 0 of 0
Talita Alencar 9 of 41 21% 4 of 28 4 of 11 1 of 2 8 of 37 1 of 3 0 of 1
3 Stephanie Luciano 22 of 54 40% 16 of 45 4 of 5 2 of 4 19 of 49 2 of 4 1 of 1
Talita Alencar 15 of 55 27% 4 of 25 9 of 27 2 of 3 11 of 49 4 of 6 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Talita Alencar vs. Stephanie Luciano
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Luciano (-185), Alencar (+154)

Round 1
A women’s strawweight rematch kicks off the streamlined undercard, as Alencar (5-0-1, 1-0 UFC) takes on Luciano (5-1-1, 0-0 UFC) for the second time in less than a year. The 115-pound hopefuls fought to a draw on Dana White’s Contender Series in September. Luciano was awarded a UFC contract for her efforts and Alencar received a traditional call-up for her Octagon debut, as she eked out a split decision over Rayanne dos Santos at UFC Fight Night 233 on Dec. 9. Jerin Valel draws the assignment as the referee. A glove touch gets us underway. Luciano takes the center and eats a head kick right out of the gate. Fortunately for her, there was not much oomph behind it. Alencar fires a leg kick, circles out into open space and steers clear of her opponent’s punches. Luciano tries and fails to corner Alencar, who continues to circle effectively. Luciano now using her seven-inch reach advantage to get her jab and one-twos in gear. She probes to the body, then misfires on an overhand right. Luciano sneaks in a left hook, then gets back to the jab. Midway through the first round, and neither woman has established too much of an advantage. Alencar mixes in a body-head combination, then fakes a takedown. Luciano jabs and manages to dodge the return fire. Ninety seconds to go. Luciano jabs, feints a kick and scores with a pawing right hook. Alencar swings wildly with both hands and misses. They clinch, and Luciano shoots a few knees to the body, then punches on the break. A flying knee from Luciano lands to the body. Jumping switch kick from Luciano gets blocked, but a knee that follows bloodies Alencar’s nose.
Advertisement

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Luciano

Round 2
Luciano immediately gets back to the jab. Alencar ducks in for a takedown but fails to corral her counterpart, and Luciano escapes to a standing position. Luciano separates and unleashes more jabs. A spinning backfist from Alencar gets blocked. Both women tend to telegraph their strikes. Luciano sprawls on attempted takedown, takes top position briefly and disengages. More jabs score. Not going well for Alencar thus far. Leg kick from Luciano, then a chopping right hand followed by a left hook. Alencar eats a head kick without issue. Luciano blocks one in return, then connects again upstairs. Alencar now reaching on her punches, as she continues to struggle to find the mark. A minute to go, and Luciano is in charge. Side kick from Luciano grazes Alencar’s midsection. She shoots in response, only to get shut down along the fence. Luciano separates and hammers home a body kick. Alencar fires back but generally with single shots. Luciano whiffs on a spinning backfist and denies a takedown as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Luciano

Round 3
Luciano smiles at her adversary at the start of Round 3, and she has every reason to do so. They trade leg kicks. Alencar looks to pressure, but Luciano calmly circles away. Right cross-left hook combination from Luciano. She counters an Alencar leg kick with multiple punches. To no one’s surprise, Alencar needs this fight on the mat to have a real chance. Luciano denies a takedown, blocks a head kick and connects with a clean one-two. She backs Alencar to the fence with punches, engages her in the clinch and uses her height and leverage to her advantage. They separate midway through the round. Luciano drops her fellow Brazilian with a jumping knee. Alencar resorts to the butt scoot while she clears her head. Back on her feet now. Luciano looks to jab, throws a right hand over the top and engages Alencar in the clinch with double underhooks. They separate. Time running out on Alencar. Luciano leaving her feet to throw kicks and knees more and more as her comfort level increases. She lands a close-range elbow and a left hook. Alencar tries to answer. No luck. Luciano coasts to the finish line.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Luciano (30-27 Luciano)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Luciano (30-27 Luciano)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Luciano (30-27 Luciano)

The Official Result
Stephanie Luciano def. Talita Alencar—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Angelo picks Luciano because she showed toughness and cardio in the first fight, biting down on her mouthpiece and coming forward while Alencar gassed. He notes that Alencar went 4 for 24 on takedowns and without takedowns she cannot win. However, he acknowledges it's a tricky rematch and Alencar could win if she gets her wrestling going.

"luchano is the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Cody agrees, highlighting Luciano's grappling defense and striking advantage. He notes Alencar's striking is stiff and she mostly holds opponents down. Cody expects Luciano to stuff takedowns and win a decision or late TKO.

"I agree with Luciano it seems like this is kind of her style is that her takedown defense is not necessarily great but her grappling defense is pretty solid"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Luciano is the better striker and should have a decided advantage if she keeps the fight standing. However, her takedown defense and fight IQ are concerns, and Alencar could make it close if she completes takedowns. Luciano's youth and damage output lead to a decision win, but confidence is low due to ring rust and Alencar's BJJ threat.

Luciano by decision
"I still believe Luciano will end up getting the better of those exchanges getting the better of the Striking Landing more damage and winning this fight on the scorecards not a whole lot of confidence here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Paul picks Luciano, noting her youth, volume, and ability to survive on the ground. He thinks she can keep the fight standing more this time and win by decision or late TKO. He mentions her dengue fever layoff but believes she should be improved.

"I think it minus F 15 um she's probably Fair PR or she's probably a fair favorite to uh to be betting this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano based on her size advantage and ability to stuff takedowns. He notes that in their first fight on the Contender Series, Talita Alencar had control time but couldn't finish, and Luciano won the third round decisively. He believes Luciano's defensive jiu-jitsu and striking will carry her to victory in the rematch.

"I'm going to go with Stephanie Luciano lad because she's a bit bigger than her lad and she Stu the takedowns"
Ravena Oliveira - Fight History
LOSS vs Shanelle Dyer
KO R2 1:17 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shanelle Dyer 0 49 of 78 62% 50 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
Ravena Oliveira 0 26 of 80 32% 32 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shanelle Dyer 0 32 of 47 68% 33 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Ravena Oliveira 0 20 of 67 29% 26 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
2 Shanelle Dyer 0 17 of 31 54% 17 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Ravena Oliveira 0 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shanelle Dyer 49 of 78 62% 22 of 42 13 of 17 14 of 19 35 of 57 8 of 11 6 of 10
Ravena Oliveira 26 of 80 32% 16 of 65 9 of 10 1 of 5 24 of 78 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shanelle Dyer 32 of 47 68% 13 of 24 8 of 8 11 of 15 28 of 43 4 of 4 0 of 0
Ravena Oliveira 20 of 67 29% 11 of 54 8 of 9 1 of 4 18 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Shanelle Dyer 17 of 31 54% 9 of 18 5 of 9 3 of 4 7 of 14 4 of 7 6 of 10
Ravena Oliveira 6 of 13 46% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 1 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Shanelle Dyer

Angelo picks Shanelle Dyer despite her recent Contender Series loss where she was dropped three times. He notes she is a dangerous striker, incredibly tough, and never stops moving forward. He believes Ravena Oliveira can be hit and doesn't see her having success. He acknowledges the -400 odds seem crazy but points to Dyer's ability to put a beating on someone.

odds comment: -400 favorite seems crazy
"I have to pick her here because Maria Alivera, Rava Alivera, Rava Canudi can be hit. She can be beat up and I don't see her having the success here that she will be hoping to have."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Shanelle Dyer

Big Brady is very confident in Shanelle Dyer, calling her the much better striker and noting that Ravena Oliveira has no power to make Dyer pay for her defensive flaws. He points out that Oliveira hasn't won a fight in five years, is 0-2 in the UFC, and didn't attempt any takedowns in her last fight. Even if Oliveira tries to grapple, Dyer has good takedown defense. He predicts a decision win but wouldn't be shocked by a finish.

Shanelle Dyer by decision
"This should be Dyer all day. Like Dyer's going to be the much much better striker and it's like Oliveira doesn't have the power to make Dyer pay for her defensive flaws."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Shanelle Dyer

Cody agrees, noting Dyer's youth and potential, while Oliveira has been unimpressive. He expects Dyer to win.

"Chanel Dyer minus 500. So how are we going to approach this one coach?"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Shanelle Dyer

Connor picks Shanelle Dyer but with hesitation, agreeing that the Fordo fight showed defensive issues. He notes that Oliveira doesn't have the volume that Fordo had, which could help Dyer. Connor still sees Dyer as a good prospect with excellent kicking and teeps, but acknowledges she needs to improve her defense.

Odds comment: Dyer opened -200, now -500; Oliveira opened +170, now +385. Connor says the odds are a little wide.
"I still feel like I should pick Dyer. I think she's a better school prospect."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Shanelle Dyer

Daniel Vreeland picks Shanelle Dyer to win her UFC debut. He praises her striking superiority and expects her to keep the fight standing, where she will outclass Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's path via grappling but doubts she can implement it.

"I'm going to take Chanel Dyer to come out here, win her UFC debut."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Shanelle Dyer

Daniel picks Dyer (Cheyanne Vlismas) to win, possibly by finish. He notes her striking prowess and thinks Oliveira has nothing for her. He expects Dyer to make a statement in her debut.

"I'm going to go Cheyanne Vlismas. You're saying finish? ... I'd love to see a finish."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Shanelle Dyer

Dyer is the better striker and has home advantage, but the odds are aggressive for a UFC debut. The skill gap isn't huge, and Oliveira could nick a round. Dyer should get the job done, but the value isn't great.

Fight likely goes to decision; odds feel wide; not interested in fight spreads or over/under.
"Dyer should get the job done. Don't want to re-drag this one out. Pretty straightforward fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Shanelle Dyer

James picks Shanelle Dyer, believing she is the better striker and will outgun Oliveira on the feet. He notes that Oliveira's grappling is not strong enough to compensate. He thinks Dyer will win by decision or possibly finish.

"The ultimate prediction is Chanel Dier to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Shanelle Dyer

The host is confident in Shanelle Dyer winning inside the distance. He notes Dyer's Muay Thai skills and improved grappling, while Oliveira has shown poor takedown defense and mediocre striking. He expects Dyer to dominate on the feet or on the ground, possibly via submission. He mentions a submission prop at +1000 as a potential sprinkle.

Submission prop at +1000
"Give me Dyer. I'm going to say Dyer inside the distance. I think she just runs through Oliveira."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Shanelle Dyer

Paul thinks Dyer's boxing and speed will overwhelm Oliveira, who lacks wrestling and power. He expects a decision win for Dyer.

"I think it probably going to go to decision, but it should be Chanel Dyer 3027 or 2928."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Shanelle Dyer

The MMA Guru picks Shanelle Dyer over Ravena Oliveira. He notes Dyer looked technical in her Contender Series fight despite a loss, while Oliveira has lost to lower-level UFC fighters. He believes Dyer's technical skills will get the job done.

"Chanel Dier looked pretty good in her contender series fight. I thought very technical. So I'm going to go with Chanel Dier here getting the job done over Rava Olivea."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Shanelle Dyer

Zane picks Shanelle Dyer but with hesitation, noting that her fight against Carol Fordo exposed defensive flaws and a lack of experience being hurt. He still thinks Dyer is a better prospect with good technical skills (jab, low kicks, teeps), but Oliveira can crack and won't go away easily. Zane hopes Dyer has learned from the Fordo fight.

Odds comment: Dyer opened -200, now -500; Oliveira opened +170, now +385. Zane says the odds are a little wide but Dyer should be a decent favorite.
"I still feel like I should pick Dyer. I think she's a better school prospect."
Submission R3 2:50 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stephanie Luciano 0 60 of 124 48% 80 of 153 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:53
Ravena Oliveira 0 24 of 103 23% 36 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stephanie Luciano 0 25 of 56 44% 25 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ravena Oliveira 0 14 of 54 25% 14 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Stephanie Luciano 0 26 of 53 49% 39 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:58
Ravena Oliveira 0 9 of 41 21% 13 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Stephanie Luciano 0 9 of 15 60% 16 of 30 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:55
Ravena Oliveira 0 1 of 8 12% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stephanie Luciano 60 of 124 48% 22 of 69 14 of 23 24 of 32 46 of 102 5 of 6 9 of 16
Ravena Oliveira 24 of 103 23% 14 of 76 3 of 5 7 of 22 24 of 102 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stephanie Luciano 25 of 56 44% 6 of 26 7 of 12 12 of 18 22 of 52 3 of 4 0 of 0
Ravena Oliveira 14 of 54 25% 10 of 40 1 of 2 3 of 12 14 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Stephanie Luciano 26 of 53 49% 11 of 33 6 of 10 9 of 10 20 of 45 2 of 2 4 of 6
Ravena Oliveira 9 of 41 21% 4 of 30 1 of 2 4 of 9 9 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Stephanie Luciano 9 of 15 60% 5 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 10
Ravena Oliveira 1 of 8 12% 0 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Angelo is confident Stephanie Luciano wins, estimating she wins 95 out of 100 times. He notes her busy striking, forward pressure, and cardio, but doubts she will get a finish. He highlights Ravena Oliveira's long layoff, knee surgery, and weight class drop as major disadvantages. He expects a dominant decision for Luciano.

Decision win likely, low fantasy scoring expected
"I think Stephanie wins this fight. I think she wins it if they fight 100 times, I think she wins 95 of them."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Big Brady notes Oliveira is coming down two weight classes and hasn't fought in two years, making her unpredictable. He likes Luciano's volume, cardio, and improving takedown defense. He thinks Luciano is the much better fighter but worries about Oliveira's potential improvements. He picks Luciano by decision.

"I gotta go Luciano here. I actually really like Luciano. I like the volume, the cardio, uh the takedown defense looks to be getting better... It's going to be Stephanie Luciano to win by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Cody picks Luciano, citing her volume and striking. He notes Oliveira is moving down two weight classes and has poor striking. Luciano's takedown defense has improved. Cody expects Luciano to win by decision.

"I'm going to go with Stephanie Luciano, but I don't feel good about this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ravena Oliveira

Connor picks Ravena Oliveira, believing she will be too big and strong for Luciano. He notes that Oliveira is a flyweight/bantamweight cutting to strawweight, and that she knows how to be a blanket. Connor dislikes the matchup but expects Oliveira to overwhelm Luciano physically.

Luciano opened -325, now -280; Oliveira opened +275, now +240. Connor is surprised Luciano is such a big favorite.
"I'm gonna take ravine Olivera. I think she's just gonna be too big and strong."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

James sees Luciano as levels above Oliveira in all areas: striking, jiu-jitsu, wrestling, and cardio. He believes Luciano should be an even bigger favorite and expects a dominant win, though he is unsure about a finish. He plans to look for prop value closer to fight night.

"I feel like Stephanie Luciano is going to get the win. You know, I just feel like she's levels above Rava Olivea and it's reflected in her price tag. And I honestly believe that it could be even a little …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

The host believes Oliveira will struggle in her return after two years away, and Luciano will put it on her with striking and takedowns. He expects a clear win for Luciano on the scorecards.

"I think that Olivera will struggle in her return after two years away from action and Luciano will really put it on her with her striking."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Paul picks Luciano, citing her volume and striking ability. He notes Oliveira's takedowns are ineffective and she loses striking exchanges. Luciano's improvements in takedown defense are key. Paul expects Luciano to win.

"Luchiano for volume, striking ability, everything like that, it's going to be the pick for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano over Taila Santos (Ravena Oliveira). He notes both are not great but Luciano had a close fight with Sam Hughes, who he believes would dominate Santos. He sees Luciano as younger and possibly improving to Hughes' level. He predicts a decision win, 29-28.

decision win
"I'm going to go with Stephanie Luciano to win this fight by decision, a classic women's 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ravena Oliveira

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Oliveira. He notes that Luciano showed promise against Sam Hughes but was ultimately overwhelmed by power and size, and that Oliveira is even bigger. Zane thinks the odds are off and Luciano shouldn't be such a big favorite.

"I agree... Olivera... Hate to say it."
LOSS vs Tainara Lisboa
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tainara Lisboa 0 18 of 35 51% 77 of 106 3 of 8 37% 0 0 6:55
Ravena Oliveira 0 15 of 31 48% 61 of 87 2 of 3 66% 0 0 5:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tainara Lisboa 0 8 of 13 61% 28 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:19
Ravena Oliveira 0 4 of 12 33% 19 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:15
2 Tainara Lisboa 0 2 of 6 33% 34 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:47
Ravena Oliveira 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tainara Lisboa 0 8 of 16 50% 15 of 24 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:49
Ravena Oliveira 0 11 of 18 61% 34 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tainara Lisboa 18 of 35 51% 9 of 24 8 of 9 1 of 2 7 of 20 11 of 12 0 of 3
Ravena Oliveira 15 of 31 48% 10 of 23 3 of 6 2 of 2 13 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tainara Lisboa 8 of 13 61% 5 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 1 5 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Ravena Oliveira 4 of 12 33% 1 of 9 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tainara Lisboa 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 3
Ravena Oliveira 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tainara Lisboa 8 of 16 50% 4 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 10 6 of 6 0 of 0
Ravena Oliveira 11 of 18 61% 9 of 13 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tainara Lisboa

Angelo slightly leans Lisboa, thinking she can win with clinch work, but he calls her a 'parlay buster' and expects a sloppy fight. He plans to stay away from betting on this one.

"I am going to lean Lisboa I'm probably going to stay away from this on the BET"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tainara Lisboa

Big Brady picks Tainara Lisboa to win by second-round submission. He was impressed by her performance against Jessica Rose Clark, noting improved striking and grappling. He thinks Oliveira is a step down in competition and expects Lisboa to dominate on the ground.

Lisboa by submission in round 2
"I like L booa to win this fight I'll take LZ booa to win this fight by by second round submission here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tainara Lisboa

Cody picks Lisboa, noting her superior striking and grappling. He highlights her win over Jessica-Rose Clark via rear-naked choke and her kickboxing background. Cody believes Oliveira has little to offer and that Lisboa can win anywhere the fight goes. He suggests Lisboa inside the distance as a prop.

Lisboa inside the distance
"Lisboa is the pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tainara Lisboa

The host picks Tainara Lisboa, citing her superior striking technique and grappling improvements. He questions Oliveira's level of competition and believes Lisboa is far more complete. He expects a submission win but notes the minus 315 price is a bit wide for a young UFC fighter.

by submission
"I'm going to go with Lisboa here I think she's far more complete she's the better Striker she shows better Tech technique and more crisp striking"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tainara Lisboa

Paul picks Lisboa, citing her well-rounded skills and the lack of quality opposition for Oliveira. He notes that Lisboa has a 100% finish rate at 135 lbs and that Oliveira's tape shows she is not on the same level. Paul expects Lisboa to dominate and finish the fight.

"Lisboa will be the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tainara Lisboa

The MMA Guru picks Tainara Lisboa over Ravena Oliveira, though he admits there's not much to go on. He notes Lisboa has a UFC win over Jessica-Rose Clark and has had time off to improve. He criticizes Oliveira's competition, saying her opponents have poor records (0-2 after fighting her). He believes Lisboa's experience and preparation give her the edge.

"I'm definitely going to go with tar Lisboa here"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Angelo is confident Stephanie Luciano wins, estimating she wins 95 out of 100 times. He notes her busy striking, forward pressure, and cardio, but doubts she will get a finish. He highlights Ravena Oliveira's long layoff, knee surgery, and weight class drop as major disadvantages. He expects a dominant decision for Luciano.

Decision win likely, low fantasy scoring expected
"I think Stephanie wins this fight. I think she wins it if they fight 100 times, I think she wins 95 of them."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Big Brady notes Oliveira is coming down two weight classes and hasn't fought in two years, making her unpredictable. He likes Luciano's volume, cardio, and improving takedown defense. He thinks Luciano is the much better fighter but worries about Oliveira's potential improvements. He picks Luciano by decision.

"I gotta go Luciano here. I actually really like Luciano. I like the volume, the cardio, uh the takedown defense looks to be getting better... It's going to be Stephanie Luciano to win by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Cody picks Luciano, citing her volume and striking. He notes Oliveira is moving down two weight classes and has poor striking. Luciano's takedown defense has improved. Cody expects Luciano to win by decision.

"I'm going to go with Stephanie Luciano, but I don't feel good about this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ravena Oliveira

Connor picks Ravena Oliveira, believing she will be too big and strong for Luciano. He notes that Oliveira is a flyweight/bantamweight cutting to strawweight, and that she knows how to be a blanket. Connor dislikes the matchup but expects Oliveira to overwhelm Luciano physically.

Luciano opened -325, now -280; Oliveira opened +275, now +240. Connor is surprised Luciano is such a big favorite.
"I'm gonna take ravine Olivera. I think she's just gonna be too big and strong."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

James sees Luciano as levels above Oliveira in all areas: striking, jiu-jitsu, wrestling, and cardio. He believes Luciano should be an even bigger favorite and expects a dominant win, though he is unsure about a finish. He plans to look for prop value closer to fight night.

"I feel like Stephanie Luciano is going to get the win. You know, I just feel like she's levels above Rava Olivea and it's reflected in her price tag. And I honestly believe that it could be even a little bit wider."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

The host believes Oliveira will struggle in her return after two years away, and Luciano will put it on her with striking and takedowns. He expects a clear win for Luciano on the scorecards.

"I think that Olivera will struggle in her return after two years away from action and Luciano will really put it on her with her striking."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Paul picks Luciano, citing her volume and striking ability. He notes Oliveira's takedowns are ineffective and she loses striking exchanges. Luciano's improvements in takedown defense are key. Paul expects Luciano to win.

"Luchiano for volume, striking ability, everything like that, it's going to be the pick for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano over Taila Santos (Ravena Oliveira). He notes both are not great but Luciano had a close fight with Sam Hughes, who he believes would dominate Santos. He sees Luciano as younger and possibly improving to Hughes' level. He predicts a decision win, 29-28.

decision win
"I'm going to go with Stephanie Luciano to win this fight by decision, a classic women's 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ravena Oliveira

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Oliveira. He notes that Luciano showed promise against Sam Hughes but was ultimately overwhelmed by power and size, and that Oliveira is even bigger. Zane thinks the odds are off and Luciano shouldn't be such a big favorite.

"I agree... Olivera... Hate to say it."