UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2

Angelo picks Marcin Tybura because he already won the first fight and has good takedown defense (only taken down once in six years). He notes that Spivac hasn't evolved much and had a sloppy fight against Oleinik. However, he cautions that Tybura is 38 and Spivac is 9 years younger, and heavyweights are unpredictable. He likely won't bet on this fight.

Cody agrees with Paul, favoring Tybura due to his cardio, striking, wrestling, and experience. He points out that Spivac's skill set hasn't evolved, his grappling isn't high-level, and he struggles when he can't take down opponents. Cody believes Tybura's ability to persevere and land better shots in later rounds gives him the edge.

Tybura is the better overall fighter with superior striking, cardio, and experience. He won the first fight and has only lost to top-tier heavyweights since. Spivac's improvements may not be enough to overcome Tybura's well-rounded game. The fight likely goes to the scorecards, making Tybura by decision a solid play at plus money.

Paul favors Tybura because he won the previous matchup and still holds advantages in striking, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes Spivac hasn't evolved much, has robotic striking, poor cardio, and relies on wrestling which Tybura can neutralize. Paul sees Tybura as a durable journeyman who can grind out a win in a five-round fight.

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, citing his win in their first fight and his improved takedown defense. He notes Tybura's cardio advantage in a five-round fight and his ability to win later rounds, as seen against Blaydes and Romanov. He criticizes Spivac's lack of improvement and finishing ability, pointing out that Spivac landed no significant strikes against Tom Aspinall.

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he is the more well-rounded fighter with BJJ, kickboxing, and wrestling credentials, and is a dog who won't break. However, he is hesitant because Chepe is a favorite for the first time, his wins have been close, and Damon Jackson with a new hair transplant has been the best version of himself. He warns not to overexpose on Chepe.

Cody picks Mariscal because he is more durable, has a cast iron chin, judo black belt, trains at altitude with top fighters, and has good takedown defense. He notes Jackson needs to finish early and tends to gas, while Mariscal's forward pressure and volume will wear him down. Cody suggests a possible third-round finish.

Mariscal has a high work rate, good scrambling, and cardio that should overwhelm Jackson as the fight goes on. Jackson is dangerous early with submissions, but if he doesn't finish, Mariscal will take over in rounds two and three. The prediction is Mariscal by decision, with a possible third-round finish.

Paul echoes Cody's sentiments, highlighting Mariscal's activity, striking with ill intent, and ability to get back to his feet. He notes Jackson's history of gassing and that Mariscal has the dog in him. Paul also jokes about Jackson's new hair plugs giving him confidence.

The MMA Guru picks Chepe Mariscal, comparing him to a slightly worse Dan Ige. He highlights Mariscal's scrambling ability, pressure, and striking advantage over Damon Jackson. He notes Jackson's grappling threat but believes Mariscal's 'ball of muscle' physique and urgency in scrambles will neutralize it. He also jokes about hairline envy affecting Jackson.

Angelo picks Danny Barlow due to his well-roundedness and range striking, but is hesitant because Barlow is unproven with only 8 fights and the odds are too wide at 3-to-1. He notes that Veretennikov is durable, powerful, and pressures forward, which could exploit Barlow's weakness against pressure. He advises staying away from betting this fight due to lack of value.

Barlow is a talented prospect with speed and power, especially his straight left. He has good takedown defense and should showcase it against Veretennikov, who may look to grapple. Barlow's striking advantage should lead to a knockout within the first two rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Danny Barlow, noting his reach advantage (79 inches) and power. He acknowledges Veretennikov's good first round against Michael Morales but worries about his short notice and tendency to slow down. He predicts a first-round TKO for Barlow, calling it a 'star-making performance.'

Angelo picks Chelsea Chandler based on size and power, expecting her to slow down the pace, lean on Santos, and hold her against the cage. He admits Santos is the better technical fighter but is on a three-fight skid and might be phoning it in. He warns that confidence is very low and advises not to bet heavily on this pick.

Cody picks Santos but with low confidence, citing her poor takedown defense (42%) and Chandler's grappling. He thinks Santos can win rounds 2 and 3 if she keeps it standing, and suggests live betting if she loses the first round. He notes the fight likely goes to decision and judges may favor activity.

Santos has a significant experience advantage and is better in the clinch, where the fight will likely be won. Chandler is raw on the feet and open to counters. Santos should land better damage and win a split decision, though Chandler's physical strength could cause problems.

Paul leans slightly to Santos due to her volume striking, but acknowledges low confidence. He expects a split decision and notes Chandler's grappling could control early rounds. He suggests a split decision prop as a good play.

The MMA Guru picks Chelsea Chandler, citing her commitment to the game and size/strength advantage over Yana Santos. He does not provide detailed technical breakdown but expresses confidence in Chandler's physical attributes.

Angelo is confident in Grigoriou because Kazama is a grapple-first fighter who has failed to get his grappling going in the UFC, is chinny on the feet, and has back-to-back first-round TKO losses. Grigoriou has powerful leg kicks, solid grappling, and is being set up for success. This is one of Angelo's more confident picks on the card.

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Kazama's poor chin and Grigoriou's striking advantage. He notes Grigoriou's counter-grappling ability from training with high-level grapplers, and that Kazama's submission threats are unlikely to succeed. Cody expects a knockout.

Grigoriou has a clear striking advantage and should be able to touch up Kazama, who has been knocked out in his last two fights. However, Kazama is dangerous on the ground and could pull guard or find a submission. This is the least confident pick on the card, and the minus 220 price is not recommended.

Paul picks Grigoriou despite the high price, citing Kazama's weak chin and one-dimensional grappling. He notes Grigoriou trains at Ray Longo's gym with better partners, has knockout power, and should win by KO. He took Grigoriou by inside the distance at minus 105.

The MMA Guru picks Charalampos Grigoriou, calling him a 'can crusher' but better than Toshiomi Kazama. He notes Grigoriou's wins over Cameron Smotherman and Chris Dutenhoffer, while criticizing Kazama's poor striking defense and recent KO losses. He believes Grigoriou's striking will prevail, especially given Kazama's two consecutive KO defeats.

Angelo picks Karol Rosa due to her insane volume (204 significant strikes in a three-round fight), pressure, and grit. He notes that Pannie is a more technical boxer but will struggle if she's on her back foot against Rosa's volume. He also mentions Rosa has solid takedown offense and defense.

Cody also picks Kianzad, calling Rosa's style frustrating and noting she doesn't use her BJJ or adjust game plans. He believes Kianzad lands better shots and has a plus number, making her the play. He mentions both have been knocked down by Lena Lansburg, which is a useless but funny stat.

Rosa is the better overall fighter with a more well-rounded game, but her lack of urgency in past fights is a concern. She can win by mixing in grappling behind her striking, but the fight likely goes to a split decision. The line is a bit high; waiting for a better price around -130 to -140 is advised.

Paul picks Kianzad at plus 180, viewing the fight as a coin flip striking affair. He criticizes Rosa's lack of fight IQ, poor takedown defense, and inability to adjust. He notes Kianzad has better striking volume and can land the better shots.

The MMA Guru picks Karol Rosa, stating she is more committed to the game and younger than Pannie Kianzad. He does not provide extensive technical analysis but expresses confidence in her dedication and age advantage.

Angelo picks Karl Williams because he can dictate where the fight takes place with his wrestling. He expects a grapple-heavy fight and believes Williams will extend his win streak to eight. Diniz is a dangerous striker with 100% finish rate, but Williams can choose to take it to the ground if striking isn't working.

Cody picks Williams, expecting him to use wrestling to control Diniz and win a decision. He notes Diniz has shown zero ability to get back up, and Williams has taken down better grapplers. However, he warns of cardio issues and the risk of getting knocked out.

Diniz is the clearly better striker with knockout power, but his takedown defense is a concern, especially early. Williams will likely get a takedown in the first round, but his lack of finishing ability and Diniz's improving takedown defense could allow Diniz to take over in later rounds. The pick is risky but Diniz by knockout in the second or third is the prediction.

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Diniz has no get-up game and Williams should dominate with takedowns. He compares Diniz to Caesar Almeida, a kickboxer with poor grappling. Paul notes the risk of Diniz landing a knockout but believes Williams' wrestling will prevail.

The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz despite expecting most people to pick Karl Williams. He notes Diniz's dangerous striking and ability to finish, as seen in his KO win over Austen Lane. He criticizes Williams' habit of getting wobbled before shooting takedowns and questions his size for the division. He believes Diniz's takedown defense and striking advantage will lead to a finish.

Angelo is very confident in Zalal because of his high fight IQ, incredible defense (only 1.73 significant strikes absorbed per minute), and well-rounded skills. He notes that Errens overcommits and extends while chasing power, which sets him up to be taken down. Zalal is one of Angelo's most confident picks on the card.

Cody is high on Zalal, citing his improved grappling, slick Jiu-Jitsu, and dominant win over Billy Quarantillo. He notes Errens has poor takedown defense (26%) and is one-dimensional. Cody expects Zalal to submit Errens and took Zalal by submission at plus 310.

Zalal has a solid all-around game with good striking, leg kicks, and aggressive grappling, plus high-level cardio training at elevation. Errens has shown flaws in takedown defense and has been out-grinded by strikers. Zalal should mix in takedowns to separate himself and win on the scorecards, though Errens is tough to finish.

Paul agrees, calling Zalal a potential top-five guy. He notes Errens' takedown defense is a massive flaw and Zalal should dominate. Paul took Zalal by submission as well, believing Zalal will take the smart route and not risk striking.

The MMA Guru picks Youssef Zalal, citing his experience and underrated skills. He notes Zalal's ability to float on the outside and play the point-fighting game, which he believes will be effective against Jarno Errens. He mentions Zalal's close fight with Ilia Topuria and his win over Billy Quarantillo as evidence of his quality. He dismisses Errens' recent win over Steven Nguyen, stating Zalal is a step up in competition.

Angelo picks Luciano because she showed toughness and cardio in the first fight, biting down on her mouthpiece and coming forward while Alencar gassed. He notes that Alencar went 4 for 24 on takedowns and without takedowns she cannot win. However, he acknowledges it's a tricky rematch and Alencar could win if she gets her wrestling going.

Cody agrees, highlighting Luciano's grappling defense and striking advantage. He notes Alencar's striking is stiff and she mostly holds opponents down. Cody expects Luciano to stuff takedowns and win a decision or late TKO.

Luciano is the better striker and should have a decided advantage if she keeps the fight standing. However, her takedown defense and fight IQ are concerns, and Alencar could make it close if she completes takedowns. Luciano's youth and damage output lead to a decision win, but confidence is low due to ring rust and Alencar's BJJ threat.

Paul picks Luciano, noting her youth, volume, and ability to survive on the ground. He thinks she can keep the fight standing more this time and win by decision or late TKO. He mentions her dengue fever layoff but believes she should be improved.

The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano based on her size advantage and ability to stuff takedowns. He notes that in their first fight on the Contender Series, Talita Alencar had control time but couldn't finish, and Luciano won the third round decisively. He believes Luciano's defensive jiu-jitsu and striking will carry her to victory in the rematch.