UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026 · Featherweight · Completed
Age 27
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 32
Height 5' 6"
Reach 66"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Keiichiro Nakamura
4.48 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
4.28 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
78.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Sebastian Szalay
4.94 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
2.2 SApM
65.0% Str. Def.
0.51 TD Avg
20.0% TD Acc.
84.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Keiichiro Nakamura - Fight History
KO R3 3:48 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Keiichiro Nakamura 1 45 of 119 37% 46 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Sebastian Szalay 0 79 of 204 38% 80 of 205 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Keiichiro Nakamura 0 13 of 33 39% 13 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sebastian Szalay 0 23 of 63 36% 23 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Keiichiro Nakamura 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sebastian Szalay 0 24 of 78 30% 24 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:00
3 Keiichiro Nakamura 1 21 of 47 44% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Sebastian Szalay 0 32 of 63 50% 33 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Keiichiro Nakamura 45 of 119 37% 21 of 86 11 of 18 13 of 15 41 of 112 1 of 3 3 of 4
Sebastian Szalay 79 of 204 38% 47 of 150 24 of 46 8 of 8 78 of 202 1 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Keiichiro Nakamura 13 of 33 39% 2 of 18 3 of 7 8 of 8 13 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sebastian Szalay 23 of 63 36% 13 of 44 7 of 16 3 of 3 22 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Keiichiro Nakamura 11 of 39 28% 6 of 30 2 of 4 3 of 5 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sebastian Szalay 24 of 78 30% 14 of 58 5 of 15 5 of 5 24 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Keiichiro Nakamura 21 of 47 44% 13 of 38 6 of 7 2 of 2 17 of 40 1 of 3 3 of 4
Sebastian Szalay 32 of 63 50% 20 of 48 12 of 15 0 of 0 32 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Sebastian Szalay

Angelo picks Sebastian Szalay, citing his power, solid defense, and composure. He notes that Nakamura is fast but not powerful, and charges forward wildly. He trusts Szalay's defense and thinks he can counter effectively. He warns not to bet on this regional fight.

do not bet on regional MMA
"Sebastian's going to be the pick. I trust the composure. I trust the defense. Nakamura is not I I at least for now as powerful as his record will indicate."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Sebastian Szalay

Big Brady picks Sebastian Szalay, impressed by his striking (fast hands, heavy leg kicks). He thinks Nakamura is okay but Szalay is another level on the feet. He expects a decision win, as Szalay is not a big knockout artist.

"I'm going to take Clay to win this fight. I'll say decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kazuhiro Nakamura

Cody is leaning toward Nakamura as a slight underdog, citing his youth, power, and improvement. He questions Szalay's durability and cardio, and believes Nakamura has a higher ceiling. He expects a competitive fight but picks Nakamura.

"I think I'm going to lean Nakamura ever so slightly. But again, this stuff's all at the bottom."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Keiichiro Nakamura

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nakamura. He notes that Szalay is like a worse version of Tim Elliott without wrestling, and Nakamura's range and power should be too much.

Same odds commentary.
"Yeah, I'll take Nakamura. Same."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)

James admits he hasn't done tape study on this fight and cannot provide a pick. He directs viewers to his paid service for his official prediction after further analysis.

"I haven't done tape study. Obviously, I'm in the Maldives."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Keiichiro Nakamura

Nakamura is a slick power striker with good range management and defensive grappling. Szalay is well-rounded but Nakamura's striking could cause problems. If Nakamura's defensive grappling holds up, he can counter Szalay's forward pressure and land a knockout. The host likes Nakamura at plus money and expects a knockout, possibly waiting for a better underdog price.

Nakamura by knockout
"I'm going to go with Kichi Kaichiro Nakamura to win this fight by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sebastian Szalay

Paul is surprised by the near pick'em line and favors Szalay, who has been a favorite throughout the tournament. He believes Szalay's karate style and counter-striking will be effective.

"Salai seems like a pretty easy moneyline selection to me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Sebastian Szalay

The Guru picks Sebastian Szalay based on his experience and good grappling. He admits he doesn't remember much about Szalay but trusts his earlier research. He is skeptical of Asian prospects from Road to UFC, noting they often lose in the UFC.

"I'm going to go with Sebastian Sazlay. He's got a lot more experience."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Keiichiro Nakamura

Zane picks Nakamura because he is rangy, bigger, and more composed than Szalay. He notes that Szalay is a funky fighter with poor striking defense who relies on opponents getting tired, while Nakamura moves well off the back foot and throws powerful strikes. Nakamura's size and composure should be decisive.

Nakamura opened at +170, now +110; Szalay opened at -200, now -130. Zane says you have a problem if you're gambling on this.
"I'll take Nakamura. Same. Nakamura is once again the underdog open it plus 170 currently plus 110. Saleh opened at minus 200 currently minus 130 a you've got a problem if you're gambling on this be I have no clue."
Sebastian Szalay - Fight History
KO R3 3:48 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Keiichiro Nakamura 1 45 of 119 37% 46 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Sebastian Szalay 0 79 of 204 38% 80 of 205 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Keiichiro Nakamura 0 13 of 33 39% 13 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sebastian Szalay 0 23 of 63 36% 23 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Keiichiro Nakamura 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sebastian Szalay 0 24 of 78 30% 24 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:00
3 Keiichiro Nakamura 1 21 of 47 44% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Sebastian Szalay 0 32 of 63 50% 33 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Keiichiro Nakamura 45 of 119 37% 21 of 86 11 of 18 13 of 15 41 of 112 1 of 3 3 of 4
Sebastian Szalay 79 of 204 38% 47 of 150 24 of 46 8 of 8 78 of 202 1 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Keiichiro Nakamura 13 of 33 39% 2 of 18 3 of 7 8 of 8 13 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sebastian Szalay 23 of 63 36% 13 of 44 7 of 16 3 of 3 22 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Keiichiro Nakamura 11 of 39 28% 6 of 30 2 of 4 3 of 5 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sebastian Szalay 24 of 78 30% 14 of 58 5 of 15 5 of 5 24 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Keiichiro Nakamura 21 of 47 44% 13 of 38 6 of 7 2 of 2 17 of 40 1 of 3 3 of 4
Sebastian Szalay 32 of 63 50% 20 of 48 12 of 15 0 of 0 32 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Sebastian Szalay

Angelo picks Sebastian Szalay, citing his power, solid defense, and composure. He notes that Nakamura is fast but not powerful, and charges forward wildly. He trusts Szalay's defense and thinks he can counter effectively. He warns not to bet on this regional fight.

do not bet on regional MMA
"Sebastian's going to be the pick. I trust the composure. I trust the defense. Nakamura is not I I at least for now as powerful as his record will indicate."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Sebastian Szalay

Big Brady picks Sebastian Szalay, impressed by his striking (fast hands, heavy leg kicks). He thinks Nakamura is okay but Szalay is another level on the feet. He expects a decision win, as Szalay is not a big knockout artist.

"I'm going to take Clay to win this fight. I'll say decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kazuhiro Nakamura

Cody is leaning toward Nakamura as a slight underdog, citing his youth, power, and improvement. He questions Szalay's durability and cardio, and believes Nakamura has a higher ceiling. He expects a competitive fight but picks Nakamura.

"I think I'm going to lean Nakamura ever so slightly. But again, this stuff's all at the bottom."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Keiichiro Nakamura

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nakamura. He notes that Szalay is like a worse version of Tim Elliott without wrestling, and Nakamura's range and power should be too much.

Same odds commentary.
"Yeah, I'll take Nakamura. Same."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)

James admits he hasn't done tape study on this fight and cannot provide a pick. He directs viewers to his paid service for his official prediction after further analysis.

"I haven't done tape study. Obviously, I'm in the Maldives."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Keiichiro Nakamura

Nakamura is a slick power striker with good range management and defensive grappling. Szalay is well-rounded but Nakamura's striking could cause problems. If Nakamura's defensive grappling holds up, he can counter Szalay's forward pressure and land a knockout. The host likes Nakamura at plus money and expects a knockout, possibly waiting for a better underdog price.

Nakamura by knockout
"I'm going to go with Kichi Kaichiro Nakamura to win this fight by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sebastian Szalay

Paul is surprised by the near pick'em line and favors Szalay, who has been a favorite throughout the tournament. He believes Szalay's karate style and counter-striking will be effective.

"Salai seems like a pretty easy moneyline selection to me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Sebastian Szalay

The Guru picks Sebastian Szalay based on his experience and good grappling. He admits he doesn't remember much about Szalay but trusts his earlier research. He is skeptical of Asian prospects from Road to UFC, noting they often lose in the UFC.

"I'm going to go with Sebastian Sazlay. He's got a lot more experience."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Keiichiro Nakamura

Zane picks Nakamura because he is rangy, bigger, and more composed than Szalay. He notes that Szalay is a funky fighter with poor striking defense who relies on opponents getting tired, while Nakamura moves well off the back foot and throws powerful strikes. Nakamura's size and composure should be decisive.

Nakamura opened at +170, now +110; Szalay opened at -200, now -130. Zane says you have a problem if you're gambling on this.
"I'll take Nakamura. Same. Nakamura is once again the underdog open it plus 170 currently plus 110. Saleh opened at minus 200 currently minus 130 a you've got a problem if you're gambling on this be I have no clue."
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Sebastian Szalay

Angelo picks Sebastian Szalay, citing his power, solid defense, and composure. He notes that Nakamura is fast but not powerful, and charges forward wildly. He trusts Szalay's defense and thinks he can counter effectively. He warns not to bet on this regional fight.

do not bet on regional MMA
"Sebastian's going to be the pick. I trust the composure. I trust the defense. Nakamura is not I I at least for now as powerful as his record will indicate."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Sebastian Szalay

Big Brady picks Sebastian Szalay, impressed by his striking (fast hands, heavy leg kicks). He thinks Nakamura is okay but Szalay is another level on the feet. He expects a decision win, as Szalay is not a big knockout artist.

"I'm going to take Clay to win this fight. I'll say decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kazuhiro Nakamura

Cody is leaning toward Nakamura as a slight underdog, citing his youth, power, and improvement. He questions Szalay's durability and cardio, and believes Nakamura has a higher ceiling. He expects a competitive fight but picks Nakamura.

"I think I'm going to lean Nakamura ever so slightly. But again, this stuff's all at the bottom."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Keiichiro Nakamura

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nakamura. He notes that Szalay is like a worse version of Tim Elliott without wrestling, and Nakamura's range and power should be too much.

Same odds commentary.
"Yeah, I'll take Nakamura. Same."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
No clear pick

James admits he hasn't done tape study on this fight and cannot provide a pick. He directs viewers to his paid service for his official prediction after further analysis.

"I haven't done tape study. Obviously, I'm in the Maldives."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Keiichiro Nakamura

Nakamura is a slick power striker with good range management and defensive grappling. Szalay is well-rounded but Nakamura's striking could cause problems. If Nakamura's defensive grappling holds up, he can counter Szalay's forward pressure and land a knockout. The host likes Nakamura at plus money and expects a knockout, possibly waiting for a better underdog price.

Nakamura by knockout
"I'm going to go with Kichi Kaichiro Nakamura to win this fight by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sebastian Szalay

Paul is surprised by the near pick'em line and favors Szalay, who has been a favorite throughout the tournament. He believes Szalay's karate style and counter-striking will be effective.

"Salai seems like a pretty easy moneyline selection to me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Sebastian Szalay

The Guru picks Sebastian Szalay based on his experience and good grappling. He admits he doesn't remember much about Szalay but trusts his earlier research. He is skeptical of Asian prospects from Road to UFC, noting they often lose in the UFC.

"I'm going to go with Sebastian Sazlay. He's got a lot more experience."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Keiichiro Nakamura

Zane picks Nakamura because he is rangy, bigger, and more composed than Szalay. He notes that Szalay is a funky fighter with poor striking defense who relies on opponents getting tired, while Nakamura moves well off the back foot and throws powerful strikes. Nakamura's size and composure should be decisive.

Nakamura opened at +170, now +110; Szalay opened at -200, now -130. Zane says you have a problem if you're gambling on this.
"I'll take Nakamura. Same. Nakamura is once again the underdog open it plus 170 currently plus 110. Saleh opened at minus 200 currently minus 130 a you've got a problem if you're gambling on this be I have no clue."