UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026 · Welterweight · Completed
Age 27
Height 6' 0"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 28
Height 6' 0"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jonathan Micallef
3.96 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
4.22 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.13 TD Avg
66.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Oban Elliott
3.62 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.24 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
1.52 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
52.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Jonathan Micallef - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 02, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Micallef 0 55 of 112 49% 83 of 147 1 of 4 25% 0 1 3:26
Themba Gorimbo 0 39 of 90 43% 74 of 132 2 of 5 40% 0 0 5:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Micallef 0 6 of 20 30% 11 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:11
Themba Gorimbo 0 11 of 23 47% 23 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
2 Jonathan Micallef 0 4 of 7 57% 7 of 15 0 of 3 0% 0 1 0:57
Themba Gorimbo 0 5 of 15 33% 23 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:41
3 Jonathan Micallef 0 45 of 85 52% 65 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Themba Gorimbo 0 23 of 52 44% 28 of 57 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Micallef 55 of 112 49% 39 of 94 13 of 15 3 of 3 46 of 99 7 of 9 2 of 4
Themba Gorimbo 39 of 90 43% 22 of 70 3 of 6 14 of 14 34 of 83 2 of 4 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Micallef 6 of 20 30% 2 of 16 3 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 14 2 of 4 1 of 2
Themba Gorimbo 11 of 23 47% 5 of 17 1 of 1 5 of 5 9 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Micallef 4 of 7 57% 1 of 4 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 2 1 of 2
Themba Gorimbo 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 1 3 of 3
3 Jonathan Micallef 45 of 85 52% 36 of 74 7 of 9 2 of 2 42 of 82 3 of 3 0 of 0
Themba Gorimbo 23 of 52 44% 12 of 38 2 of 5 9 of 9 23 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef

Round 1
Micallef (9-1; 2-0 UFC) looks to keep his Octagon record spotless against Gorimbo (14-6; 4-3 UFC), who is tasked with snapping the first losing streak of his career in hostile territory. Lukas Bosacki draws the referee assignment. Micallef is southpaw, Gorimbo orthodox, and both men reach out with awkward rear-hand punches in the opening moments. Gorimbo closes the distance and shoves Micallef to the fence. They pummel for position briefly, then disengage and return to the center of the cage. Gorimbo clocks Micallef with a right hand in the pocket, but can’t follow it with anything of consequence. Micallef lands a good left hand of his own, then eats another hard right from Gorimbo. Micallef connects with a pair of punches upstairs and Gorimbo clinches. They fight for underhooks against the fence. Two minutes to go in the round and it’s Micallef on the outside, shoving Gorimbo into the cage. Gorimbo reverses the position. They exchange knees inside. Micallef hits a lovely foot sweep and dumps Gorimbo to the canvas. Micallef is in Gorimbo’s full guard, then postures up and drops a couple of hard punches. Gorimbo starts to pop up, but Micallef drives him back to the ground and threatens to take his back. Gorimbo stands, giving up his back briefly, but spins out of it and returns to his feet. They collide in the pocket and the round ends. 10-9 Micallef.

Round 2
Gorimbo comes forward swinging big, but the punches glance off of Micallef’s guard. He throws another salvo of punches and several of them connect. He closes the distance and grabs a body lock, dragging Micallef to his knees, but the Australian pops right back up. Gorimbo drives Micallef to the fence, keeping the body lock, but Micallef shucks him off and grabs a single-leg. He looks about to finish the takedown, but falls back off-balance with Gorimbo on top. Gorimbo is in Micallef’s full guard, and as he looks to pass, Micallef throws his legs up for a triangle choke. He can’t secure it, and Gorimbo is very close to passing his guard against the fence. Micallef kicks Gorimbo all the way off of him, but Gorimbo dives straight back into guard. Micallef controls Gorimbo’s wrists and tries another triangle setup. Gorimbo sniffs it out easily and passes Micallef’s guard, then takes his back in a flash. There’s a full minute left as Gorimbo cinches up a body triangle from back mount. Micallef fights off Gorimbo’s initial attempts at a choke, then squirms and, Anthony Pettis-like, spins all the way out of back mount into guard. Micallef gets in a couple of punches right before the horn. 10-9 Gorimbo.

Round 3
Gorimbo just touches with a right high kick, and Micallef answers with a right hand. Gorimbo is active with the kicks early, tagging Micallef’s lead leg. Micallef throws a right kick to the body and Gorimbo catches the kick, then counters with a right hand up top. Gorimbo times Micallef’s next kick and plows him to the canvas. They pop back up seconds later and Gorimbo drives Micallef to the fence. Micallef reverses the position. They separate and go back to kickboxing, and Gorimbo immediately goes back to work with low kicks. Micallef answers with a few kicks of his own, but seems to be trying to measure his man for a counterpunch. Micallef gets the better of a boxing exchange, and Gorimbo changes levels for a single-leg attempt. He holds onto the leg and shoves Micallef to the fence, but Micallef extricates the leg and nails Gorimbo with a pair of punches. Gorimbo suddenly looks very tired. Micallef lights him up with a three-piece. Gorimbo has slowed but is still very much in the fight, blasting Micallef’s lead right leg with another calf kick. Micallef throws a spinning backfist that lands cleanly. Under 30 seconds left and Micallef surges forward with spinning attacks and a series of big punches, trying for the last-second finish, but nothing of consequence lands. The horn sounds, and it should be his fight anyway, on our scorecard at least. 10-9 Micallef (29-28 Micallef).

The Official Result
Jonathan Micallef def. Themba Gorimbo via Split Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Angelo picks Jonathan Micallef because he believes Micallef's pressure wrestling will neutralize Themba Gorimbo's range striking. He expects Micallef to crowd Gorimbo, take away his distance, and drag him to the ground for control. Angelo also mentions the possibility of Australian judges favoring Micallef in a close fight.

Over 2.5 rounds mentioned as solid.
"Jonathan Mlev should win this with just some good oldfashioned wrestling. I don't think we find a finish here. Over two and a half is probably pretty solid."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Big Brady picks Jonathan Micallef to win by submission in the second or third round. He criticizes Themba Gorimbo's style as panic wrestling and notes his poor durability and submission defense. Brady believes Micallef is dangerous everywhere, especially with his kicks, and that Gorimbo will make a mistake in the grappling as he slows down, leading to a submission.

Micallef by submission, round 2 or 3
"I'm picking Mequelet to win this fight by submission in the second or third round when Themba starts to slow down."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Cody picks Micallef, noting his youth and improvement. He believes Micallef's grappling and submission skills will overcome Gorimbo's wrestling, and likes the submission prop.

submission prop
"Malf will be the side the pick for me. I think he's a guy that I kind of underestimated when he first came into the UFC and he's kind of proven me wrong."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Connor picks Micallef, agreeing that Gorimbo is a mess who overwhelms bad athletes but gets flung around by good ones. He notes Micallef is a good athlete with reach and a high-output kicking game, and Gorimbo's wrestling is not good enough to neutralize him. He calls it a worthwhile test for Micallef.

"Yep. And yeah, McAlluff has never dealt with a blanket, but he's definitely not a bad athlete. No, and he's pretty big."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Daniel Vreeland leans towards Jonathan Micallef to win a split decision, but is not confident. He thinks Gorimbo may win the first round but fade, while Micallef's body lock and kicking game could take over. He notes the odds are off but doesn't trust Gorimbo.

"I'm going to lean towards Michaeliff to win kind of an uninspiring split decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Lucrative James picks Jonathan Micallef to win via submission. He believes Micallef's jiu-jitsu is a level above Gorimbo's, and expects Gorimbo to make a grappling mistake that Micallef can capitalize on. He notes Gorimbo's training in North Ossetia may improve his wrestling, but still favors Micallef's submission skills.

"I think that Jonathan Miff is going to submit him... I'm picking Jonathan Miff to win this fight via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

The host thinks Micallef is the better and stronger fighter, with a grappling edge that will show in deeper waters. He expects Micallef to grind out a decision, but advises waiting for a better line as Gorimbo may get public support. The host notes Micallef's strength and grappling ability, while Gorimbo's reckless striking and recent losses are concerns.

"I think he is the better fighter. I think he's the stronger fighter. I think he's the better grappler. And I think that's going to start to show more and more as we get into deeper water here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Paul picks Micallef, citing his submission skills and Gorimbo's tendency to get taken down. He believes Micallef will catch a submission off his back or win a decision.

submission prop
"I took a small shot on Maciff by sub because um I mean he's shown a knack for it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Micallef, highlighting his well-rounded skills and durability. He criticizes Themba Gorimbo's recent performances, especially the loss to Jeremiah Wells where Gorimbo made mistakes. He notes Micallef's power and athleticism, and predicts a submission win.

submission win
"I'm going to go with Jonathan Micallef here. Um I think he'll be a little bit too well-rounded and probably get a submission win over Themba Gorimbo."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Zane picks Micallef confidently, noting his high-output kicking game and reach will trouble Gorimbo, who is a blanketer with rudimentary striking. He thinks Micallef is a much better athlete and sniper, and Gorimbo's wrestling is sacrificial and not good enough to hold Micallef down. He sees it as a sensible matchup for Micallef.

"So I'm picking him too, but I think it's a sensible matchup. I have no problem with giving this fight to McAlluff right now."
WIN vs Oban Elliott
Submission R2 3:31 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Micallef 0 19 of 59 32% 30 of 70 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:35
Oban Elliott 0 40 of 82 48% 47 of 89 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Micallef 0 11 of 36 30% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Oban Elliott 0 21 of 49 42% 27 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:05
2 Jonathan Micallef 0 8 of 23 34% 10 of 25 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:00
Oban Elliott 0 19 of 33 57% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Micallef 19 of 59 32% 13 of 49 5 of 9 1 of 1 16 of 53 3 of 6 0 of 0
Oban Elliott 40 of 82 48% 34 of 74 1 of 3 5 of 5 35 of 74 5 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Micallef 11 of 36 30% 8 of 31 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 31 2 of 5 0 of 0
Oban Elliott 21 of 49 42% 16 of 43 1 of 2 4 of 4 16 of 43 5 of 5 0 of 1
2 Jonathan Micallef 8 of 23 34% 5 of 18 2 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Oban Elliott 19 of 33 57% 18 of 31 0 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 31 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Oban Elliott vs. Jonathan Micallef
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Micallef (-135), Elliott (+114)

Round 1
Of the 10 fights the UFC designates as UFC 325, two of them do not feature an athlete from Oceania. This is not one of those, as locals have another man in the cage to get excited about in the form of Micallef (8-1, 1-0 UFC). He collides in a classic matchup of Australia vs. Wales as he locks horns with Elliott (12-3, 3-1 UFC). The welterweights get right after it while referee Marc Goddard keeps tabs on the action.
Micallef leads off with a few kicks, and one to the midsection gets caught as Elliott slings him right down to the mat and climbs on top. Micallef scoots his way to the fence and walks up it with his face aimed towards the audience, and Elliott slugs him upside the head a few times until Micallef breaks off. Elliott intercepts his opponent with a chopping kick that sweeps him off his feet, and when Micallef gets up, he takes a power jab on the jaw. Micallef lunges recklessly, landing a front kick but nearly falling over while doing so. Elliott shrugs it off and corners Micallef, clubbing him with his fists until Micallef peels out and resets. Elliott stings Micallef with a short combination, and he whips a kick at the Aussie’s head that is blocked in time. Elliott kicks low, and Micallef is unable to get out of first gear. Both fighters miss on big hooks, and Elliott uses a second to set up an ankle pick takedown that does not materialize.
The clashing men clinch up, and when they split, Micallef drills Elliott in the temple with a right hand that sets him down. The Welshman climbs back up, and he watches Micallef load up wildly and sees the punches soar past him. Micallef offers out a one-two, and he is met with an intercepting jab. Elliott beats his man to the punch, opening a cut on Micallef’s right eye with his faster swings. Micallef lumbers forward, loading up so much that he crashes into the cage looking quite silly. Elliott does not make him pay for it, so Micallef circles around and wipes the wound that is leaking a bit. Micallef manages to get his hands on Elliott, wrapping him up and leaning on him against the fence. Elliott escapes and dodges an elbow, and he plants his left hand on the bloody face of the Aussie. Elliott further targets it before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 2
Elliott rushes out to start the round, where he is met with a front kick to his breadbasket. Micallef looks to establish his jab, and he guards against a high kick when pressing forward. Elliott’s boxing is crisp and quick, allowing him to beat the wide-swinging Micallef to the punch. Micallef swarms forward but misses the mark with his lobbed arms, and Elliott opens the cut up again on the side of Micallef’s eye. Elliott strings a few punches together, not getting too greedy and backing off when he sees the counter coming. Micallef winds up on his punches, allowing Elliott to see many of them coming. The Welshman slams a kick on the lead leg, and his guard is able to defend the responsive head kick. Micallef catches him coming forward with a right hand, and Elliott gets frustrated and lashes out with a storm of reaching punches.
Micallef takes them flush and bounces off the wall behind him, letting Elliott come to him so he can wrap him up and go for a level change. The body lock takedown from Micallef is successful in wresting “The Welsh Gangster” to the floor, and he is quick to set up a rear-naked choke while lacing both hooks in. Micallef slithers his arm beneath the chin in a slightly unorthodox position, and Elliott fights the hands and releases slack in his arms in hopes of loosening the grip.
Seeing this is a poor decision, Elliott frantically attacks the choke grip, but it is now fully secured and squeezing the carotid artery as tight as one can. Elliott’s defensive gestures fall away as his limbs go limp, losing consciousness as Goddard quickly identifies—and measures his resistance by lifting the lifeless arms—the submission has reached its completion.
Snatching victory from the jaws of defeat thanks to one perfectly timed takedown, the Australian adds another win on the board for home-country athletes with a technical submission of a man in Elliott who had never been submitted. There’s a first time for everything, as “The Captain” declares that he is the captain now.

The Official Result
Jonathan Micallef def. Oban Elliott R2 3:31 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Angelo picks Jonathan Micallef, citing his wrestling and ability to land big shots and then shoot takedowns. He notes that Oban Elliott was afraid of power in his last fight and got taken down six times. He likes that Micallef is only minus 150 and says the line moved from dog to favorite, which reassures him.

"I'm going to lean Michelef here. And I and I like seeing that he's only minus 150."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks the underdog Oban Elliott, believing the market overreacted to his loss against Sung Ho Ko (who is legit). He thinks Elliott is the better striker and wrestler, while Micallef only has a body kick. He expects a decision win for Elliott.

"I'm going to take Elliott here. I'll take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Cody is taking Elliott as a slight underdog, believing he is being undervalued after one loss. He notes that Micallef has a limited striking arsenal and questionable takedown defense. He expects Elliott to use his wrestling and win a decision.

"I think Oban Elliot's got a plus money. I'm gonna take a small poke here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Micallef. He notes that Elliott is a classic neutralizer who feasts on unprincipled strikers, but Micallef is a principled striker who will not get frustrated. Connor believes Micallef's comfort at range and ability to stay proactive will win him the fight.

Same odds commentary.
"Yeah, I think it's very much a winnable fight for Elliott, but he is going to have to break out of his his golden cage. Yeah, and actually do something different."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Elliott as a dog, believing the market overcorrected after his loss to a legit opponent. He thinks Elliott's takedown defense is solid and that Micallef is overrated. Vreeland sees this as a competitive fight and likes Elliott at plus money.

"At dog odds, I'm a little tempted on Elliot."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

James picks Micallef, citing his advantage in jiu-jitsu and outside kickboxing. He believes Elliott's wrestling could lead to submissions, and that Micallef's footwork and kicks will win the striking exchanges. James questions Elliott's durability and sees Micallef as the more well-rounded fighter.

"I got Makalif in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Elliott is a well-rounded grappler with good cardio and chain wrestling. Micallef relies on mobile striking and BJJ, but Elliott should be able to shut down his striking and win the grappling exchanges. The host liked Elliott at -120 when the fight was first scheduled, so at +110 he sees value. Elliott is the better scrambler and should get more top time and damage.

Elliott by decision
"I'm going to have to lean on Elliot as I think he's a bit a little bit more well-rounded and will get the better of the grappling exchanges as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Paul disagrees and picks Micallef, citing Elliott's poor performance in his last fight and questionable wrestling. He believes Micallef's length and striking will be enough to win a decision.

"McAlliff throws like basically he's got like a long body kick. He's got some submissions off of his back. Is Oan going to just hang out in his guard? possible, but McCallip is the side for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Oban Elliott

The Guru picks Oban Elliott despite acknowledging potential bias as a friend. He cites Elliott's experience, craftiness in scrambles, and ability to mix things up on the feet. He notes Micallef's athleticism and finishing potential but believes Elliott's experience and training camp preparation will lead to a split decision win.

split decision 29-28
"I'm going to go with Orban getting this one done. Plus lighter man skill."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Zane picks Micallef because he is a principled striker who is comfortable operating from long range, which should neutralize Elliott's passive, counter-fighting style. He notes that Elliott struggles against principled strikers and tends to give up too much momentum. Zane believes Micallef's kicking game and generalship will be key.

Micallef opened at -110, now -130; Elliott opened at -110, now +110.
"I'm gonna take Michalif on that. And I like Elliott, but that's also why I feel like this is for him, this is much more a fight for him where he has to kind of it's gonna have to do …"
CANCEL vs Oban Elliott
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Angelo picks Jonathan Micallef because he has takedowns and random power, which he believes will exploit Oban Elliott's grappling holes. He notes that Elliott recently lost to a similar style fighter (Shyuko) who took him down six times and made him hesitant. Angelo admits he is not insanely confident but sees a clear path to victory for Micallef.

"I'm going to pick Jonathan Malef. Am I insanely confident in that? No. No, I'm not. But I do think Jonathan Mikv, a guy that we know has random power, we know has takedowns versus a guy that has some …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks Oban Elliott to win by decision, but is hesitant. He has never been high on Elliott and thinks he is overrated, but sees this as a winnable fight. He notes Elliott is the better striker and can get takedowns, but worries about his ground game after a poor performance against Co.

"I'm going to pick Elliot here. pick Elliot here to win by decision, but I don't know. It's a weird one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Cody picks Elliott but is nervous after his last poor performance. He believes Elliott has the skills to win if he returns to form, using his judo and takedowns. He notes Micallef is green and relies on volume, but Elliott's low volume and recent loss make him untrustworthy.

"Obanelli hopefully jumps back in the in the right track, but last fight was abysmal. He's the pick for me, but I'm a little nervous there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Elliott is not comfortable being a pressure fighter and will likely spend too much time on the end of Micallef's kicks. He thinks Elliott may duck into a head kick trying to play Micallef's guessing game. However, he acknowledges it's a good fight and Elliott could win if he pressures.

"Yeah, I'll take Micallef as well. I think stylistically Elliott's gonna let him have too much play."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

James leans toward Oban Elliott due to his more well-rounded skill set, better boxing, and proven UFC experience. He notes that Micallef relies heavily on kicks and jiu-jitsu, while Elliott has superior wrestling and cardio. However, he acknowledges the fight is close and passes on betting due to lack of strong read.

"I lean Elliot a little bit. I mean he's been there and done it on the UFC scene a little bit more."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The host expects Elliott to bounce back after losing as a big favorite. He thinks Elliott will shut down Micallef's grappling and use pace and pressure in striking that Micallef cannot keep up with, winning on the scorecards.

"Elliot is looking to bounce back after fumbling the bag as a minus 500 favorite last time around. And I think he can do it successfully by shutting down Mckela's grappling game and then putting on a pace and pressure …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The Guru picks Oban Elliott, citing his experience and well-rounded skills. He believes Micallef won't be able to impose his bully tactics and that Elliott's wrestling and striking will be key. He predicts a 29-28 decision, with Elliott winning the first and third rounds.

29-28 decision
"I'm going to go towards my boy Oran Elliot here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Zane thinks Micallef's kicking game will be effective if Elliott gives him space, which he expects Elliott to do. He notes that Elliott tends to be a neutralizer who may not pressure effectively, and that Micallef's southpaw stance and power rear leg kick could cause problems. However, he acknowledges Elliott could counter if he pressures.

Odds comment: razor thin odds; Micallef opened +110 now -102, Elliott opened -130 now -118
"Part of my guts is I should take Micallef here. I think Elliott is gonna give him space."
WIN vs Kevin Jousset
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Micallef 1 85 of 192 44% 89 of 197 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Kevin Jousset 0 67 of 168 39% 71 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Micallef 1 25 of 49 51% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Kevin Jousset 0 16 of 39 41% 20 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jonathan Micallef 0 30 of 69 43% 30 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Jousset 0 25 of 60 41% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jonathan Micallef 0 30 of 74 40% 30 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Jousset 0 26 of 69 37% 26 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Micallef 85 of 192 44% 52 of 151 28 of 34 5 of 7 83 of 190 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kevin Jousset 67 of 168 39% 32 of 112 17 of 34 18 of 22 66 of 166 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Micallef 25 of 49 51% 9 of 29 13 of 16 3 of 4 24 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Jousset 16 of 39 41% 6 of 20 2 of 9 8 of 10 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Micallef 30 of 69 43% 22 of 59 7 of 8 1 of 2 30 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Jousset 25 of 60 41% 10 of 39 7 of 12 8 of 9 25 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jonathan Micallef 30 of 74 40% 21 of 63 8 of 10 1 of 1 29 of 73 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Jousset 26 of 69 37% 16 of 53 8 of 13 2 of 3 25 of 67 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Jousset vs. Jonathan Micallef
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jousset (-258), Micallef (+210)

Round 1
Moving right along, Australia hopes to keep its momentum going against a regional rival in New Zealand. Micallef (7-1, 0-0 UFC) springboarded into the organization thanks to a stellar showing on the Contender Series, while Jousset (10-3, 2-1 UFC) made his way here by winning on the same fight card—Hex Fight Series 26 in 2023—as his opponent did. Having swam in the same circles early on, they will come to blows in the former’s promotional debut. For the second fight of the night, referee Rich Mitchell draws the charge, clocking the welterweights in as they bump fists. The fighters immediately start out whipping kicks at one another, with Micallef starting first and eating one right back. Micallef steps in with a left hand, and he follows it by bashing Jousset in the ribs with his shin. Micallef circles and goes high with a kick, stumbling and drawing back to his feet before Jousset can get to him. Jousset picks his shots with kicks to varied targets, while Micallef is chambering and launching heavier blows. Jousset digs a kick under the guard, and he backs off but still eats a leg kick before getting away. Jousset jabs a kick forward, absorbs a body kick and follows with an overhand right. Micallef sneaks a leg over the top and connects to the body again with a kick, and he briefly thinks about clinching but backs off to reset instead. Micallef walks into a sharp jab, and a few more from the City Kickboxing fighter produce some swelling under Micallef’s right eye. They go after one another to the ribs with additional kicks, putting a lot into them as they smack into one another with heavy impact. Micallef gets one in low and it slides up to bump the cup, but Jousset waves him off to keep kicking. Jousset chips away from his preferred distance, and Micallef bears down on him to get tied up in a clinch. A few sharp uppercuts and an elbow force the break for “Air Jousset,” who then backs away to measure his target with accurate kicks. Micallef kicks low and then whips one up high that beans Jousset in the temple. Jousset goes down in a heap, but he is still with it and shakes out the cobwebs before Micallef can finish the job. Jousset climbs up to dodge another sweeping head kick, motioning that the blow was extremely close to landing. Jousset walks through a few more body kicks, but they are having an impact as he follows Micallef around. Both men score right hands, and they wrap their shins beneath one another’s guard. The ribcage of Jousset is looked especially marked up as the round closes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Micallef
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Micallef
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Micallef

Round 2
The fighters bump fists before picking up right where they left off. Micallef leads the dance with a left hand, and Jousset pays him back almost immediately in kind. Micallef slides on the outside to evade Jousset’s kicks while responding with some, but a quick head kick from Jousset gets blocked in the nick of time. They both fade back to sway and dodge punches, and their kicks have a much higher accuracy rate. Micallef kicks so hard, the impact on the rib echoes through the arena as fans go “ooh.” Jousset chips back with kicks, but power is not on his side as Micallef is turning his hips into these audible blows. Micallef strafes back and forth to disrupt Jousset’s movement, keeping his guard up to defend the high kick that inevitably comes. Micallef goes up high again, and Jousset breathes a sigh of relief that he could guard against it. Micallef swipes left hands over the top, chaining punches into kicks while staying wise to potential counters. Jousset manages to catch him with a left hand every so often, but the volume and damage are both tilted to the unbeaten fighter’s side. Jousset slams a kick into the raised guard, chasing Micallef around and pawing at him with jabs. When Jousset tries a head kick, Micallef protects himself and retaliates appropriately. Micallef sneaks a kick above the guard again, and Jousset’s eyes go wide as the crowd grows in support of their Aussie. They batter the body once more in rapid succession, with pops so loud that Mitchell smiles when hearing a heavy impact. The two trade punches and kicks while standing directly in front of one another, with Micallef beating Jousset to the punch just enough to matter. Another big head kick from Micallef dings Jousset at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Micallef
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Micallef
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Micallef

Round 3
A final glove touch gets things going after 10 minutes of kickfighting, and they decide to do more of that. They take turns kicking at one another, with the fighters seemingly trying to outdo the other they slug it out. Micallef strafes from one side to the other to deliver a payload of a booming kick to the liver. Micallef keeps chewing up the body with successful kicks, not letting Jousset get his tempo for much more than a counter or a long pair of punches. Micallef shrugs off jabs so he can continue welting up Jousset’s sides with kicks, and he even lets Jousset kick him to open up responses. Jousset gets irritated by an exchange and walks forward with dangerous intent, tagging Micallef with lunging punches and cutting Micallef off when trying to escape. Jousset stands in the pocket too long, eating a trio of punches before Micallef can back off to reset. Micallef strides forward, kicking, punching and kicking again, and Jousset keeps his feet planted when not hurling kicks right back. Micallef doubles up on a jab to loose a head kick, and it skims the side of the dome but does not shake “Air Jousset” up. Jousset instead bites down on his gumshield and slings vicious leather, opening up a cut on the bridge of Micallef’s nose while swinging with bad intentions. Micallef circles to his right, away from the power, but not far enough away to avoid big kicks. Fans appreciate the hard work these two have put in so far, rewarding the fighters with big cheers, and the competitors show their gratitude by banging it out. Micallef kicks Jousset square in the noggin, and the City Kickboxing fighter does not bat an eye and instead is right there to throw back harder. They display inaccurate head kicks until reaching the final horn, leaving most of it in the cage after three violent rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jousset (29-28 Micallef)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jousset (29-28 Micallef)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jousset (29-28 Micallef)

The Official Result
Jonathan Micallef def. Kevin Jousset via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Jousset

Big Brady is not a huge fan of Kevin Jousset's style but likes him in this matchup. He notes that Jousset is a technical striker with good takedown defense, while Micallef has poor striking defense and tends to panic wrestle. Brady believes Jousset will win by decision, possibly a knockout, but he doesn't trust Jousset to finish. He predicts a three-round decision.

"I think jet wins this fight I think he wins it by decision could even knock out malli but I don't really want to trust jet to to finish any anybody"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Jousset

Jousset is favored due to his Judo background which can stop Micallef's takedowns. From there, his striking advantage will allow him to pick apart Micallef. The fight is expected to go the full 15 minutes with Jousset winning by decision.

decision
"I really like Jay in the spot as I think that he can stop the takedowns of malli with his Judo uh Judo background and then from there utilize his striking advantage to really pick apart malli"
Oban Elliott - Fight History
Submission R2 3:31 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Micallef 0 19 of 59 32% 30 of 70 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:35
Oban Elliott 0 40 of 82 48% 47 of 89 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Micallef 0 11 of 36 30% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Oban Elliott 0 21 of 49 42% 27 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:05
2 Jonathan Micallef 0 8 of 23 34% 10 of 25 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:00
Oban Elliott 0 19 of 33 57% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Micallef 19 of 59 32% 13 of 49 5 of 9 1 of 1 16 of 53 3 of 6 0 of 0
Oban Elliott 40 of 82 48% 34 of 74 1 of 3 5 of 5 35 of 74 5 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Micallef 11 of 36 30% 8 of 31 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 31 2 of 5 0 of 0
Oban Elliott 21 of 49 42% 16 of 43 1 of 2 4 of 4 16 of 43 5 of 5 0 of 1
2 Jonathan Micallef 8 of 23 34% 5 of 18 2 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Oban Elliott 19 of 33 57% 18 of 31 0 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 31 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Oban Elliott vs. Jonathan Micallef
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Micallef (-135), Elliott (+114)

Round 1
Of the 10 fights the UFC designates as UFC 325, two of them do not feature an athlete from Oceania. This is not one of those, as locals have another man in the cage to get excited about in the form of Micallef (8-1, 1-0 UFC). He collides in a classic matchup of Australia vs. Wales as he locks horns with Elliott (12-3, 3-1 UFC). The welterweights get right after it while referee Marc Goddard keeps tabs on the action.
Micallef leads off with a few kicks, and one to the midsection gets caught as Elliott slings him right down to the mat and climbs on top. Micallef scoots his way to the fence and walks up it with his face aimed towards the audience, and Elliott slugs him upside the head a few times until Micallef breaks off. Elliott intercepts his opponent with a chopping kick that sweeps him off his feet, and when Micallef gets up, he takes a power jab on the jaw. Micallef lunges recklessly, landing a front kick but nearly falling over while doing so. Elliott shrugs it off and corners Micallef, clubbing him with his fists until Micallef peels out and resets. Elliott stings Micallef with a short combination, and he whips a kick at the Aussie’s head that is blocked in time. Elliott kicks low, and Micallef is unable to get out of first gear. Both fighters miss on big hooks, and Elliott uses a second to set up an ankle pick takedown that does not materialize.
The clashing men clinch up, and when they split, Micallef drills Elliott in the temple with a right hand that sets him down. The Welshman climbs back up, and he watches Micallef load up wildly and sees the punches soar past him. Micallef offers out a one-two, and he is met with an intercepting jab. Elliott beats his man to the punch, opening a cut on Micallef’s right eye with his faster swings. Micallef lumbers forward, loading up so much that he crashes into the cage looking quite silly. Elliott does not make him pay for it, so Micallef circles around and wipes the wound that is leaking a bit. Micallef manages to get his hands on Elliott, wrapping him up and leaning on him against the fence. Elliott escapes and dodges an elbow, and he plants his left hand on the bloody face of the Aussie. Elliott further targets it before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 2
Elliott rushes out to start the round, where he is met with a front kick to his breadbasket. Micallef looks to establish his jab, and he guards against a high kick when pressing forward. Elliott’s boxing is crisp and quick, allowing him to beat the wide-swinging Micallef to the punch. Micallef swarms forward but misses the mark with his lobbed arms, and Elliott opens the cut up again on the side of Micallef’s eye. Elliott strings a few punches together, not getting too greedy and backing off when he sees the counter coming. Micallef winds up on his punches, allowing Elliott to see many of them coming. The Welshman slams a kick on the lead leg, and his guard is able to defend the responsive head kick. Micallef catches him coming forward with a right hand, and Elliott gets frustrated and lashes out with a storm of reaching punches.
Micallef takes them flush and bounces off the wall behind him, letting Elliott come to him so he can wrap him up and go for a level change. The body lock takedown from Micallef is successful in wresting “The Welsh Gangster” to the floor, and he is quick to set up a rear-naked choke while lacing both hooks in. Micallef slithers his arm beneath the chin in a slightly unorthodox position, and Elliott fights the hands and releases slack in his arms in hopes of loosening the grip.
Seeing this is a poor decision, Elliott frantically attacks the choke grip, but it is now fully secured and squeezing the carotid artery as tight as one can. Elliott’s defensive gestures fall away as his limbs go limp, losing consciousness as Goddard quickly identifies—and measures his resistance by lifting the lifeless arms—the submission has reached its completion.
Snatching victory from the jaws of defeat thanks to one perfectly timed takedown, the Australian adds another win on the board for home-country athletes with a technical submission of a man in Elliott who had never been submitted. There’s a first time for everything, as “The Captain” declares that he is the captain now.

The Official Result
Jonathan Micallef def. Oban Elliott R2 3:31 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Angelo picks Jonathan Micallef, citing his wrestling and ability to land big shots and then shoot takedowns. He notes that Oban Elliott was afraid of power in his last fight and got taken down six times. He likes that Micallef is only minus 150 and says the line moved from dog to favorite, which reassures him.

"I'm going to lean Michelef here. And I and I like seeing that he's only minus 150."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks the underdog Oban Elliott, believing the market overreacted to his loss against Sung Ho Ko (who is legit). He thinks Elliott is the better striker and wrestler, while Micallef only has a body kick. He expects a decision win for Elliott.

"I'm going to take Elliott here. I'll take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Cody is taking Elliott as a slight underdog, believing he is being undervalued after one loss. He notes that Micallef has a limited striking arsenal and questionable takedown defense. He expects Elliott to use his wrestling and win a decision.

"I think Oban Elliot's got a plus money. I'm gonna take a small poke here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Micallef. He notes that Elliott is a classic neutralizer who feasts on unprincipled strikers, but Micallef is a principled striker who will not get frustrated. Connor believes Micallef's comfort at range and ability to stay proactive will win him the fight.

Same odds commentary.
"Yeah, I think it's very much a winnable fight for Elliott, but he is going to have to break out of his his golden cage. Yeah, and actually do something different."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Elliott as a dog, believing the market overcorrected after his loss to a legit opponent. He thinks Elliott's takedown defense is solid and that Micallef is overrated. Vreeland sees this as a competitive fight and likes Elliott at plus money.

"At dog odds, I'm a little tempted on Elliot."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

James picks Micallef, citing his advantage in jiu-jitsu and outside kickboxing. He believes Elliott's wrestling could lead to submissions, and that Micallef's footwork and kicks will win the striking exchanges. James questions Elliott's durability and sees Micallef as the more well-rounded fighter.

"I got Makalif in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Elliott is a well-rounded grappler with good cardio and chain wrestling. Micallef relies on mobile striking and BJJ, but Elliott should be able to shut down his striking and win the grappling exchanges. The host liked Elliott at -120 when the fight was first scheduled, so at +110 he sees value. Elliott is the better scrambler and should get more top time and damage.

Elliott by decision
"I'm going to have to lean on Elliot as I think he's a bit a little bit more well-rounded and will get the better of the grappling exchanges as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Paul disagrees and picks Micallef, citing Elliott's poor performance in his last fight and questionable wrestling. He believes Micallef's length and striking will be enough to win a decision.

"McAlliff throws like basically he's got like a long body kick. He's got some submissions off of his back. Is Oan going to just hang out in his guard? possible, but McCallip is the side for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Oban Elliott

The Guru picks Oban Elliott despite acknowledging potential bias as a friend. He cites Elliott's experience, craftiness in scrambles, and ability to mix things up on the feet. He notes Micallef's athleticism and finishing potential but believes Elliott's experience and training camp preparation will lead to a split decision win.

split decision 29-28
"I'm going to go with Orban getting this one done. Plus lighter man skill."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Zane picks Micallef because he is a principled striker who is comfortable operating from long range, which should neutralize Elliott's passive, counter-fighting style. He notes that Elliott struggles against principled strikers and tends to give up too much momentum. Zane believes Micallef's kicking game and generalship will be key.

Micallef opened at -110, now -130; Elliott opened at -110, now +110.
"I'm gonna take Michalif on that. And I like Elliott, but that's also why I feel like this is for him, this is much more a fight for him where he has to kind of it's gonna have to do …"
CANCEL vs Jonathan Micallef
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Angelo picks Jonathan Micallef because he has takedowns and random power, which he believes will exploit Oban Elliott's grappling holes. He notes that Elliott recently lost to a similar style fighter (Shyuko) who took him down six times and made him hesitant. Angelo admits he is not insanely confident but sees a clear path to victory for Micallef.

"I'm going to pick Jonathan Malef. Am I insanely confident in that? No. No, I'm not. But I do think Jonathan Mikv, a guy that we know has random power, we know has takedowns versus a guy that has some …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks Oban Elliott to win by decision, but is hesitant. He has never been high on Elliott and thinks he is overrated, but sees this as a winnable fight. He notes Elliott is the better striker and can get takedowns, but worries about his ground game after a poor performance against Co.

"I'm going to pick Elliot here. pick Elliot here to win by decision, but I don't know. It's a weird one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Cody picks Elliott but is nervous after his last poor performance. He believes Elliott has the skills to win if he returns to form, using his judo and takedowns. He notes Micallef is green and relies on volume, but Elliott's low volume and recent loss make him untrustworthy.

"Obanelli hopefully jumps back in the in the right track, but last fight was abysmal. He's the pick for me, but I'm a little nervous there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Elliott is not comfortable being a pressure fighter and will likely spend too much time on the end of Micallef's kicks. He thinks Elliott may duck into a head kick trying to play Micallef's guessing game. However, he acknowledges it's a good fight and Elliott could win if he pressures.

"Yeah, I'll take Micallef as well. I think stylistically Elliott's gonna let him have too much play."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

James leans toward Oban Elliott due to his more well-rounded skill set, better boxing, and proven UFC experience. He notes that Micallef relies heavily on kicks and jiu-jitsu, while Elliott has superior wrestling and cardio. However, he acknowledges the fight is close and passes on betting due to lack of strong read.

"I lean Elliot a little bit. I mean he's been there and done it on the UFC scene a little bit more."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The host expects Elliott to bounce back after losing as a big favorite. He thinks Elliott will shut down Micallef's grappling and use pace and pressure in striking that Micallef cannot keep up with, winning on the scorecards.

"Elliot is looking to bounce back after fumbling the bag as a minus 500 favorite last time around. And I think he can do it successfully by shutting down Mckela's grappling game and then putting on a pace and pressure …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The Guru picks Oban Elliott, citing his experience and well-rounded skills. He believes Micallef won't be able to impose his bully tactics and that Elliott's wrestling and striking will be key. He predicts a 29-28 decision, with Elliott winning the first and third rounds.

29-28 decision
"I'm going to go towards my boy Oran Elliot here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Zane thinks Micallef's kicking game will be effective if Elliott gives him space, which he expects Elliott to do. He notes that Elliott tends to be a neutralizer who may not pressure effectively, and that Micallef's southpaw stance and power rear leg kick could cause problems. However, he acknowledges Elliott could counter if he pressures.

Odds comment: razor thin odds; Micallef opened +110 now -102, Elliott opened -130 now -118
"Part of my guts is I should take Micallef here. I think Elliott is gonna give him space."
LOSS vs Ko Seok-hyun
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ko Seok-hyun 0 33 of 61 54% 80 of 127 6 of 9 66% 1 0 10:15
Oban Elliott 0 10 of 31 32% 19 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ko Seok-hyun 0 8 of 20 40% 19 of 36 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:36
Oban Elliott 0 4 of 11 36% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:41
2 Ko Seok-hyun 0 15 of 27 55% 26 of 45 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:15
Oban Elliott 0 3 of 10 30% 7 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ko Seok-hyun 0 10 of 14 71% 35 of 46 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:24
Oban Elliott 0 3 of 10 30% 7 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ko Seok-hyun 33 of 61 54% 25 of 51 5 of 6 3 of 4 14 of 32 3 of 6 16 of 23
Oban Elliott 10 of 31 32% 2 of 20 6 of 8 2 of 3 9 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ko Seok-hyun 8 of 20 40% 5 of 16 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 12 3 of 5 2 of 3
Oban Elliott 4 of 11 36% 0 of 5 3 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ko Seok-hyun 15 of 27 55% 12 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 11 0 of 1 10 of 15
Oban Elliott 3 of 10 30% 0 of 6 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ko Seok-hyun 10 of 14 71% 8 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 5
Oban Elliott 3 of 10 30% 2 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Oban Elliott

Angelo picks Oban Elliott confidently, noting his well-rounded skills, cardio, and ability to flow. He contrasts Oban's movement with Ko's stiffness and power, predicting that Oban will avoid big shots and win early. He thinks Oban's footwork and range control will be key, and that Ko's lack of setup will be exploited.

Predicts win in first or second round; expects high fantasy score.
"I think Oban Elliott absolutely wins this fight. I think he wins early, meaning in like the first or second round."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks Oban Elliott, the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Elliott has fixed previous chin and cardio issues, is only 27, and trains at a good gym. Brady is not sold on Ko, who had limited footage and a boring Contender Series win. He thinks Elliott will do better work on the feet and can mix in takedowns. He predicts Elliott by decision.

decision
"I'm going to go Elliot here. Elliot to win this one by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Oban Elliott

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Elliott has turned his neutralizing style into a potentially elite MMA game by making opponents frustrated and error-prone. He compares Ko to Bogdan Grad, describing him as a pressure fighter who trudges forward but lacks power and dynamic ability. Connor believes Elliott's length and counter-striking will frustrate Ko, leading to a violent finish.

"Yeah, I tend to agree. So I have to pick Elliott pretty firmly here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The host acknowledges that Ko will provide resistance, especially if Elliott looks for a takedown-heavy approach. However, he expects Elliott to mix it up well with volume striking and takedown threat to grind out a decision win.

"Co will surely provide some resistance, especially if Elliot looks for a takedown heavy approach, but I'm expecting Elliot to mix it up well with his volume striking and his takedown threat to grind this fight out and win it …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Oban Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Oban Elliott, despite acknowledging bias as a friend. He praises Elliott's ability to overcome adversity and resistance in fights, citing his comebacks against Val Woodburn and others. He believes Elliott's well-roundedness and durability will overcome Ko Seok-hyun, predicting a third-round finish.

Elliott wins by TKO in round 3
"I'm going to go with Oban Elliot. I think he's more wellrounded and he's met resistance. He's been rocked, he's been dropped, and he still wins every time."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Oban Elliott

Zane sees Oban Elliott as a neutralizing fighter who frustrates opponents and capitalizes on their mistakes, as shown in recent wins. He views Ko Seok-hyun as a stodgy, flat-footed fighter with poor defense and limited dynamic ability, making him a poor matchup for Elliott's style. Zane notes that Elliott has developed a logical progression from frustration to finishing, and expects Ko to walk into counter shots and make big errors.

Opened at -208, now -481; Ko opened +158, now +395. Odds movement indicates heavy public support for Elliott.
"So I have to pick Elliott pretty firmly here. He's proven himself already very capable of not only handling this level of fighter, but making them look really bad."
CANCEL vs Ramiz Brahimaj
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Angelo picks Oban Elliott confidently, noting his well-rounded skills, cardio, and ability to get back to his feet after takedowns. He contrasts this with Ramiz Brahimaj's tendency to grapple off his back and lack of striking. He expects the odds to widen further and advises betting early.

Suggests the line will move from -400 to -800 or -900, implying value on Elliott at current odds.
"Oban is 100 times a striker that Ramese is and should absolutely run away here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Billy Goff despite the wide line, noting that Ramiz Brahimaj is essentially first-round sub or bust and fades after the first five minutes. Goff is tough, has great cardio, and applies constant pressure. Brady expects Goff to break Brahimaj and finish him in the second round, possibly by knockout.

second round knockout
"I like Billy Rigoff here. It is a wide line, but I think he does break Ramsey's Brahimage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Matt picks Billy Goff to win by decision. He notes that Goff is an all-gas fighter who wears opponents down, while Brahimaj is an early-finish threat who fades. Goff has never been finished and should survive the early onslaught, then take over in the second and third rounds. Matt likes Goff by decision at +220.

Goff by decision +220, Brahimaj round one KO +2400, Brahimaj round one submission +1200
"Goff will likely start pulling away in the second and third rounds here. Goff to win by decision is the prop that I'd go with here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)

The MMA Guru picks Billy Goff over Ramiz Brahimaj, citing Goff's pressure, body work, and grit. He criticizes Brahimaj's level, noting losses to Court McGee and others. He predicts Goff will win by second or third round TKO, mixing body shots and low kicks.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Billy Ray Gooff... I think Billy Gooff is going to win this fight... Billy Gooff wins by second or third round TKO over Ramis Brahimage."
WIN vs Bassil Hafez
KO (punches) R3 0:40 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Oban Elliott 0 24 of 70 34% 24 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Bassil Hafez 1 65 of 117 55% 66 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Oban Elliott 0 10 of 27 37% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Bassil Hafez 0 25 of 49 51% 26 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Oban Elliott 0 12 of 37 32% 12 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bassil Hafez 0 29 of 53 54% 29 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Oban Elliott 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bassil Hafez 1 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Oban Elliott 24 of 70 34% 16 of 55 2 of 9 6 of 6 23 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 65 of 117 55% 22 of 60 16 of 24 27 of 33 55 of 107 2 of 2 8 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Oban Elliott 10 of 27 37% 7 of 21 1 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 25 of 49 51% 6 of 21 5 of 9 14 of 19 23 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Oban Elliott 12 of 37 32% 8 of 29 0 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 29 of 53 54% 7 of 27 10 of 13 12 of 13 29 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Oban Elliott 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 11 of 15 73% 9 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 8
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Angelo picks Bassil Hafez as an underdog, liking his pressure, takedowns, and power. He notes that Oban Elliott has good cardio and tools but is not very dangerous and can be taken down. He believes if Hafez's cardio holds up, he wins. He plans to bet on Hafez if the line moves in his favor.

Angelo says he will bet on Bassil Hafez if the line moves in his favor, indicating a potential bet on the underdog.
"I love his pressure I love the takedowns I'm going to pick him as an underdog here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks Oban Elliott but thinks the line is too wide. He notes Elliott's improved takedown defense in his last fight against Preston Parsons and believes he is the cleaner striker. However, he acknowledges that Bassil Hafez has solid wrestling and that Elliott has been taken down by lesser fighters in the past. He predicts a close decision win for Elliott, possibly 29-28.

"I do think this Line's a tad too wide for my liking I do think there's some recency biased here with obon Elliott but with that said I I do think Elliott looked the best he he's ever had in …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Cody picks Bassil Hafez, citing his durability and grappling. He notes Hafez was competitive with Jack Madalena and has a strong top game. Cody expects Hafez to neutralize Elliott with takedowns and control, possibly winning a decision. He likes the plus money.

"I'll take HZ HZ by decision if you're a split decision kind of guy maybe chase the split decision prop on this one as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Hafez's aggression and willingness to scramble will trouble Elliott. He mentions that Elliott's defensive wrestling and footwork are good, but Hafez's pace and power could overwhelm him. Connor sees it as a close fight but leans toward Hafez.

"Yeah, Hafez just making aggressive decisions is a much bigger problem for somebody whose primary interest is to neutralize at the start of the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Vreeland picks Hafez as his dog, noting he has been fading Oban Elliott from day one. He thinks the plus 200 line is juicy and that Hafez can submit Elliott, who gave up his back to B Woodburn.

Bassil Hafez wins by submission (+600)
"I think that number is Juicy against obon Elliot and I have been an obon Elliott fader since day one"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Daniel Vreeland picks Oban Elliott, expecting him to take over after the first round. He notes Hafez's tendency to gas out and Elliott's improving takedown defense and fight IQ. He acknowledges Hafez's early power but believes Elliott's pace and durability will win him the decision.

decision
"I see Oban taking over the second and third coming out here and uh winning this decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox does not make a clear pick for this fight. He comments that he doesn't like the Hafez submission prop but does not state his own pick.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Oban Elliott

The host was impressed by Elliott's pressure approach against Preston Parsons, where he turned the takedowns against Parsons and landed big shots. He expects Elliott to replicate that against Hafez, using his speed and technical striking advantage to win a decision as Hafez slows down in deeper waters.

"Elliot surprised me very much last time around against Preston Parsons as he took that pressure approach and turned it against Parsons Stu the takedowns Landing big shots of his own and I expect him to do the same here …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Paul picks Bassil Hafez, noting the growing plus money and Hafez's durability. He expects a close fight that could go to a split decision, and likes Hafez as an underdog. Paul is waiting for the line to move further before betting.

"I'll wind up with some money on uh basil ofz this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Oban Elliott, citing his volume striking and underrated grappling. He notes Bassil Hafez looked awful against Mickey Gall and struggled with takedowns. He believes Elliott will out-volume Hafez on the feet and won't be taken down.

"I'm going to go with auan Elliott he's going to win the fight... I think auan ot's going to out volume him on the feet out busy him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Zane picks Hafez, feeling that Hafez's relentless aggression and power will be too much for Elliott's neutralization style. He notes that Elliott has been knocked out before and that Hafez is faster and harder to dissuade. Zane expects a split decision but leans toward Hafez.

Odds: Elliott opened -156, now -275; Hafez opened +123, now +232. Zane says it feels like a very close fight, split decision either way.
"I'm gonna go with Hafez as well. I just feel in my gut that Elliot his style... it is a level thing."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Oban Elliott 0 44 of 125 35% 49 of 142 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:56
Preston Parsons 0 36 of 93 38% 71 of 133 1 of 9 11% 0 0 1:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Oban Elliott 0 9 of 35 25% 12 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:56
Preston Parsons 0 12 of 34 35% 25 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
2 Oban Elliott 0 13 of 46 28% 14 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:54
Preston Parsons 0 16 of 29 55% 23 of 38 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Oban Elliott 0 22 of 44 50% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
Preston Parsons 0 8 of 30 26% 23 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Oban Elliott 44 of 125 35% 36 of 116 4 of 5 4 of 4 41 of 122 3 of 3 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 36 of 93 38% 15 of 66 4 of 9 17 of 18 31 of 85 5 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Oban Elliott 9 of 35 25% 6 of 32 2 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 12 of 34 35% 3 of 21 2 of 5 7 of 8 9 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Oban Elliott 13 of 46 28% 9 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 16 of 29 55% 7 of 18 2 of 4 7 of 7 15 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Oban Elliott 22 of 44 50% 21 of 42 0 of 1 1 of 1 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 8 of 30 26% 5 of 27 0 of 0 3 of 3 7 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Angelo picks Preston Parsons, expecting him to dive for takedowns and either submit or decision Oban Elliott. He notes that Oban is well-rounded but not dangerous, and Parsons has 9 submissions in 11 wins. Angelo acknowledges the fight could be boring but believes Parsons will get the grappling going and win.

"I'm going to go with Preston I think he's diving at legs I think he gets it to the ground probably 50/50 if he subs or decisions"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Cody picks Preston Parsons, citing his relentless pressure, grappling, and power. He notes that Oban Elliott was taken down by Val Woodburn, which is a red flag, and that Parsons has better wrestling and cardio. Cody believes Parsons can grind out a win or even knock Elliott out.

"I gotta go with Preston Parsons uh honestly he's got some legitimate skills guy that shows up every time and he's just a go go go go type guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Daniel thinks Preston Parsons is more battle-tested and has faced better competition. He notes Oban Elliott is unathletic and boring but tough. He picks Parsons but not confidently, citing potential jet lag and judging issues.

"I'm gonna pick Preston Parsons but not confidently"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Daniel picks Modestas Bukauskas inside the distance as his prop. He notes Bukauskas has good takedowns and back-takes from his Cage Warriors days, and expects him to work his grappling. He thinks there's a real chance of a ground-and-pound finish, and the inside distance line at +240 offers value.

Modestas Bukauskas inside the distance +240; also mentions submission line +1800 as tempting but not official
"I'm gonna take his inside the distance because even if he takes him down a bunch I think there's a real chance he gets a ground and pound finish instead"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Elliott's takedown defense is questionable and that Parsons' wrestling will be the difference. He mentions that Parsons has a clear game plan and that Elliott's love from the betting market is unwarranted.

"I don't really understand the OB and Elliott love to be perfectly honest."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

The MMA Guru picks Preston Parsons, believing he is the better fighter with tougher competition. He notes Parsons' well-rounded game, including grappling and submission attempts, and his impressive win over Matthew Semelsberger. The Guru is less impressed with Oban Elliott's striking, calling it slow, and thinks Parsons will mix things up effectively. He acknowledges Elliott's size and potential but trusts Parsons' experience and skill.

"I just think Preston Parsons is better than him to be honest with you and I think Preston Parsons has fought better competition"
WIN vs Val Woodburn
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Oban Elliott 0 70 of 111 63% 136 of 188 3 of 5 60% 0 0 8:58
Val Woodburn 1 23 of 61 37% 30 of 70 2 of 2 100% 0 1 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Oban Elliott 0 28 of 40 70% 51 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:09
Val Woodburn 1 5 of 17 29% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Oban Elliott 0 23 of 40 57% 53 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:40
Val Woodburn 0 6 of 20 30% 6 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
3 Oban Elliott 0 19 of 31 61% 32 of 47 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:09
Val Woodburn 0 12 of 24 50% 19 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Oban Elliott 70 of 111 63% 60 of 96 7 of 11 3 of 4 33 of 65 3 of 3 34 of 43
Val Woodburn 23 of 61 37% 19 of 55 2 of 4 2 of 2 15 of 46 5 of 10 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Oban Elliott 28 of 40 70% 24 of 36 2 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 9 2 of 2 22 of 29
Val Woodburn 5 of 17 29% 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 4 2 of 4
2 Oban Elliott 23 of 40 57% 19 of 33 4 of 7 0 of 0 19 of 36 1 of 1 3 of 3
Val Woodburn 6 of 20 30% 5 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Oban Elliott 19 of 31 61% 17 of 27 1 of 2 1 of 2 10 of 20 0 of 0 9 of 11
Val Woodburn 12 of 24 50% 9 of 21 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 18 4 of 5 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Angelo picks Oban Elliott as the more well-rounded fighter who can grind out a decision. He notes that Val Woodburn is dangerous but Oban is the better fighter. He plans to bet Val Woodburn inside the distance decision no action, expecting a refund if Oban wins by decision.

Val Woodburn wins inside distance (decision no action)
"Oban is going to be the pick... Oban probably wins a decision which means I'll get a refund if Val doesn't finish the fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks Oban Elliott to win by third-round submission. He notes Elliott's solid wrestling and grappling, expecting him to wear down Val Woodburn and eventually finish him. He expresses concerns about Elliott's durability, as he has been nearly finished before, but believes Woodburn's lack of tested grappling will be his downfall. He says he wouldn't lay -300 on Elliott but still picks him.

Elliott by submission, round 3
"I'm going to take obon Elliot to win this fight... I'll say like a third round submission for Oban Elliott here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Val Woodburn

Cody picks Woodburn as a dog, noting his appearance and the fact that he is dropping to 170, which may be a better fit. He admits he has no interest in betting Elliott at -270 and sees Woodburn as a live underdog. He acknowledges it's a pass for him but picks Woodburn for the show.

"I'll pick Val just strictly based off of his uh his appearance on his tapology page real hard-hitting analysis."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Val Woodburn

Daniel picks Val Woodburn as a value underdog. He explains that he initially dismissed Woodburn but after watching his regional fights, he was impressed by his strength and cardio. He notes that Woodburn fought up at light heavyweight and manhandled opponents. He criticizes Oban Elliott's Contender Series performance, saying he tired and his wrestling may not hold up. He believes Woodburn's power and clinch work will be decisive and that the -286 price on Elliott is too high.

"I don't think you can bet Oban Elliott in this spot at what did you say negative 270 or 280 yeah like that's just an exorbitant for this fight and I think there's some value on Woodburn so I'm gonna …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Daniel Vreeland picks Oban Elliott, believing he will break Woodburn down with his attritional style and cardio. He notes Woodburn is dropping to welterweight and is relatively unknown. He looks forward to fading Elliott in the future but picks him here.

"I think obon wins this."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Jeff picks Oban Elliott, citing his better overall skills and experience. He acknowledges that UK fighters can be overhyped but believes Elliott is the more well-rounded fighter. He is not willing to pay the -286 price, however, and says he won't bet him in real life.

"I will take Elliot probably he's gonna end up overhyped because guys from the UK tend to get overhyped... but he's he's better than Woodburn definitely better experience better fighter overall more well-rounded."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Elliott has experience and grappling advantages. Woodburn is moving down to welterweight for the first time and lacks tools. Elliott grinds out a late finish. The -310 line is too wide, so late-round props are recommended.

late round props for Elliott
"minus 310 is a little bit too wide for me and I think that honing in on those late round props for Elliott will be the key to extracting as much profit from this matchup as possible"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Paul picks Elliott, noting his experience on the European regional scene and his win on Contender Series. He questions Woodburn's durability and cardio after his quick KO loss to Bo Nickal. He believes Elliott's wrestling and well-rounded game will be too much for Woodburn.

"obon Elliott will be my pick here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Oban Elliott, noting his skill advantage over Val Woodburn if the fight leaves the first few exchanges. He criticizes Woodburn's strength of schedule, saying his wins are against older, past-it fighters. He predicts Elliott wins by decision, possibly an arm triangle submission in the late second or third round. He also mentions concern about Elliott's weight cut after a brutal KO loss.

Maybe an arm triangle submission in the late second or third round.
"I reckon he will beat Val Woodburn... I think if this fight leaves the first few exchanges he has a massive advantage in terms of skill over Val Woodburn."
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Angelo picks Jonathan Micallef, citing his wrestling and ability to land big shots and then shoot takedowns. He notes that Oban Elliott was afraid of power in his last fight and got taken down six times. He likes that Micallef is only minus 150 and says the line moved from dog to favorite, which reassures him.

"I'm going to lean Michelef here. And I and I like seeing that he's only minus 150."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks the underdog Oban Elliott, believing the market overreacted to his loss against Sung Ho Ko (who is legit). He thinks Elliott is the better striker and wrestler, while Micallef only has a body kick. He expects a decision win for Elliott.

"I'm going to take Elliott here. I'll take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Cody is taking Elliott as a slight underdog, believing he is being undervalued after one loss. He notes that Micallef has a limited striking arsenal and questionable takedown defense. He expects Elliott to use his wrestling and win a decision.

"I think Oban Elliot's got a plus money. I'm gonna take a small poke here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Micallef. He notes that Elliott is a classic neutralizer who feasts on unprincipled strikers, but Micallef is a principled striker who will not get frustrated. Connor believes Micallef's comfort at range and ability to stay proactive will win him the fight.

Same odds commentary.
"Yeah, I think it's very much a winnable fight for Elliott, but he is going to have to break out of his his golden cage. Yeah, and actually do something different."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Elliott as a dog, believing the market overcorrected after his loss to a legit opponent. He thinks Elliott's takedown defense is solid and that Micallef is overrated. Vreeland sees this as a competitive fight and likes Elliott at plus money.

"At dog odds, I'm a little tempted on Elliot."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

James picks Micallef, citing his advantage in jiu-jitsu and outside kickboxing. He believes Elliott's wrestling could lead to submissions, and that Micallef's footwork and kicks will win the striking exchanges. James questions Elliott's durability and sees Micallef as the more well-rounded fighter.

"I got Makalif in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Elliott is a well-rounded grappler with good cardio and chain wrestling. Micallef relies on mobile striking and BJJ, but Elliott should be able to shut down his striking and win the grappling exchanges. The host liked Elliott at -120 when the fight was first scheduled, so at +110 he sees value. Elliott is the better scrambler and should get more top time and damage.

Elliott by decision
"I'm going to have to lean on Elliot as I think he's a bit a little bit more well-rounded and will get the better of the grappling exchanges as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Paul disagrees and picks Micallef, citing Elliott's poor performance in his last fight and questionable wrestling. He believes Micallef's length and striking will be enough to win a decision.

"McAlliff throws like basically he's got like a long body kick. He's got some submissions off of his back. Is Oan going to just hang out in his guard? possible, but McCallip is the side for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Oban Elliott

The Guru picks Oban Elliott despite acknowledging potential bias as a friend. He cites Elliott's experience, craftiness in scrambles, and ability to mix things up on the feet. He notes Micallef's athleticism and finishing potential but believes Elliott's experience and training camp preparation will lead to a split decision win.

split decision 29-28
"I'm going to go with Orban getting this one done. Plus lighter man skill."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Zane picks Micallef because he is a principled striker who is comfortable operating from long range, which should neutralize Elliott's passive, counter-fighting style. He notes that Elliott struggles against principled strikers and tends to give up too much momentum. Zane believes Micallef's kicking game and generalship will be key.

Micallef opened at -110, now -130; Elliott opened at -110, now +110.
"I'm gonna take Michalif on that. And I like Elliott, but that's also why I feel like this is for him, this is much more a fight for him where he has to kind of it's gonna have to do something different."