UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026 · Lightweight · Completed
Age 29
Height 5' 11"
Reach 75"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 5' 8"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Maurício Ruffy
4.19 SLpM
58.0% Str. Acc.
4.09 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Rafael Fiziev
4.71 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
4.84 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.83 TD Avg
66.0% TD Acc.
90.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Maurício Ruffy - Fight History
SCHED vs Michael Chandler
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
WIN vs Rafael Fiziev
KO R2 4:30 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Ruffy 0 36 of 66 54% 37 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 1 55 of 88 62% 60 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Ruffy 0 16 of 33 48% 17 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 18 of 28 64% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
2 Maurício Ruffy 0 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 1 37 of 60 61% 39 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Ruffy 36 of 66 54% 9 of 31 15 of 19 12 of 16 34 of 64 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 55 of 88 62% 45 of 77 4 of 4 6 of 7 42 of 66 1 of 2 12 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Ruffy 16 of 33 48% 2 of 12 7 of 11 7 of 10 14 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 18 of 28 64% 13 of 22 2 of 2 3 of 4 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Maurício Ruffy 20 of 33 60% 7 of 19 8 of 8 5 of 6 20 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 37 of 60 61% 32 of 55 2 of 2 3 of 3 24 of 38 1 of 2 12 of 20
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-122), Fiziev (+102)

Round 1
It’s a striker’s delight in the “featured fight of the night” slot, as lightweights in need of a big win lock ‘em up. “Ataman” Fiziev (13-4, 7-4 UFC) may have struggled having to face Justin Gaethje twice in the span of about two years, but he righted the ship last June by taking out Ignacio Bahamondes. On the other side of the equation, Fighting Nerds staple Ruffy (12-2, 3-1 UFC) saw his mighty win streak come to a crashing halt last year when the co-headliner Benoit St. Denis wrangled and tapped him. This ranked lightweight contest where only man will remain in the top 10 when the dust settles will be officiated by referee Dan Movahedi. The heavy hitters touch gloves before handling their business.
Ruffy in a wide stance holds the center of the cage, avoiding a sweeping low kick while keeping his lead hand dangerously low. The head movement allows Ruffy to dodge a sudden head kick, and he answers with a quick leg kick. Fiziev slowly works his way forward, cutting off the cage and darting in behind a single left hand. Ruffy tosses out another kick, and Fiziev drills him with one that is far heavier. Fiziev ducks away from a tie-up attempt and goes low with another hard kick. Ruffy is not responding well to the calf kicks from the Tiger Muay Thai striking instructor, and Fiziev pressures him all the way to the wall to force a clinch. Ruffy turns him around, and Fiziev is able to escape out the side and nail the body with a kick. Ruffy offers a spinning elbow that is not accurate, and Fiziev walks him down without fear of reprisal.
Ruffy steps in to strike, and he gets caught with a pair of punches and a surprise head kick. Fiziev keeps Ruffy on the back foot, whipping him with kicks to remain pinned to the wall. Ruffy chains a low kick into a step-in knee, and Fiziev barely dodges in time. Both men go to the body, with tit-for-tat powerful single striking exchanges. Ruffy largely throws one at a time, while Fiziev walks through them and fires of his own combos. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy

Round 2
The athletes meet in the middle, with Fiziev starting off with strong body kicks. Ruffy replies with a solid right hand to back him off, and he spins with a back kick that Fiziev evades in time. Fiziev kicks low and then to the ribs, and he ducks under a sweeping left hand. Ruffy sneaks in a right hand over the top, and he partially checks a low kick. Fiziev rushes in with a left hook, and he keeps his opponent skirting on the back wall. They trade punches, with Fiziev taking a low kick on the way out that he does not defend well. Ruffy prods out a few jabs and is met with a hard body kick, and he winds up with a huge right hand that Fiziev takes flush.
Fiziev spins with a wheel kick and bounces off, and he resets without Ruffy taking advantage of it. Fiziev kicks at the front calf, and is answered with one from his opponent. Fiziev digs a right to the midsection, and then ducks in to go left to the liver. Ruffy retreats, and he takes low kicks on both sides. Ruffy reaches out with a right, and he bats Fiziev upside the head with a standing back fist. Fiziev walks Fiziev down and boots him in the liver again, and he gets backed off with a straight jab but is right in front of Ruffy. Ruffy measures his man and blasts Fiziev in the face with a right hand down the pipe, and Fiziev goes squirrely and on ice skates trips around the cage barely able to stay upright. Movahedi thinks to step in, but allows them to keep fighting. Ruffy does not go wild, instead picking his shots and methodically clobbering Fiziev with ground strikes. Fiziev still has his head on a swivel, and he sways and moves so that he can work his way back to his feet, but after several more blistering right hands, he is in a bad way as his balance has completely abandoned him.
Ruffy is able to bully Fiziev down to the ground again, partly due to Fiziev clinging to consciousness with figurative stars over his head like a "Street Fighter" character, and he unloads with a brief but final, concussive bombardment of punches until Movahedi does intervene.
This is a huge triumph for Ruffy, earning easily the biggest win of his career by putting away a renowned muay thai striker and trainer.

The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Rafael Fiziev R2 4:30 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo picks Rafael Fiziev, stating he is the better traditional striker and has shown he can wrestle and grapple, which is a key advantage. He notes that Ruffy is creative and powerful but was frozen by takedowns in his last fight. Fiziev has dog in him and made adjustments in his last fight. Angelo sees value at minus 115 given their resumes.

minus 115 seems like solid value
"Raphael Faziv is the pick and minus 115 given their resumes honestly seems like solid value here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady slightly leans toward Maurício Ruffy in a close striker's delight. He notes Fiziev has slowed down in the third round historically and didn't look great against Gachi after injury. Ruffy is a high-level striker with flashy spinning attacks and won't fade. Brady sees it as a 29-28 split decision either way, but expects Ruffy to take over late.

"I'm going to ever so slightly lean with Mauricio Hufi to win a very close decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Cody believes Fiziev is undervalued as a slight underdog. He criticizes Ruffy's reliance on flashy knockouts and low volume, noting that Ruffy was outstruck by James Llontop and only landed 3 significant strikes before his wheel kick KO of Bobby Green. He praises Fiziev's veteran savvy, volume, and ability to mix in wrestling, predicting a close decision win for Fiziev.

"Phys's he's got more volume by the numbers, but not like a runaway amount. The difference is if you want to go punch for punch with Raphael Phys, he lands eyecatching stuff, man."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Connor picks Fiziev, arguing that Ruffy is a smoke-and-mirrors fighter who is not a natural counter puncher and struggles when pressured. He notes that Fiziev is a superior technician with good takedown defense and that Ruffy's only path to victory is a lucky knockout. He also points out that Ruffy's wins are against slow or limited opponents, while Fiziev has fought elite competition.

Odds: Fiziev +105, Ruffy -125. Connor is surprised Fiziev is the underdog and notes the line is moving.
"I have to pick Fiziev. It's just, yeah, totally. There's a well fighting a superior technician who is super fast and who's only real weakness is a sort of like loss of cohesion late in the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Daniel Vreeland picks Ruffy as a dog, viewing the line as a market overcorrection. He believes Ruffy is a special striker who can match Fiziev's speed and technique, and that Fiziev has slowed down since his ACL surgery. Vreeland also notes that Ruffy has improved by training with Volkanovski and that Fiziev lacks a ground threat, making this a striking match where Ruffy can win.

"I took Mauricio Hui at plus 107 odds. I put one unit on it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

James picks Ruffy to win by KO, citing Ruffy's youth, distance control, and timing advantage. He believes Fiziev is on a downtrend and may be hesitant to engage. James notes Ruffy's training with Volkanovski and that Fiziev's wrestling won't be effective. He sees Ruffy's durability and power as key factors.

"I got Rua in this one, boys. I got Rua via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Fiziev is a nasty Muay Thai striker with good speed, combinations, and countering ability. He has improved his wrestling, as shown in his last fight where he landed four takedowns. Ruffy struggles with grapplers and was broken mentally by Saint Denis. Fiziev's durability is ironclad, and he should push the pace, counter effectively, and mix in takedowns. The host is baffled that Fiziev is the underdog and expects a finish in round two or three.

Fiziev by knockout round 2 or 3
"There it is. Raphael Fizz by knockout round two or round three."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ruffy is overvalued due to his flashy style and that Fiziev is a more complete fighter. He highlights Fiziev's ability to mix in takedowns and his experience against top competition. He expects Fiziev to win a close decision.

"I think Faze can hang with this guy on the feet. Ruffy if he wins will win like big huge exciting kind of moments but veteran savvy sneak in a takedown round and kind of just scrape by on probably …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, citing his superior striking, timing, and ability to chop at opponents with kicks. He notes Ruffy's weaknesses in fundamentals and predicts Fiziev will win by decision, possibly 29-28. He expects Ruffy to have a good third round but Fiziev's technical edge will prevail.

decision 29-28
"I'm going with FizzV, dude."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Zane picks Fiziev, emphasizing that Ruffy is limited strategically and relies on time and space to set up shots. He notes that Fiziev is a capable, controlled striker who can crowd Ruffy and take him down if needed. He also mentions that Ruffy's takedown defense is poor and that Fiziev's only losses are to elite fighters like Gaethje and Gamrot.

Odds: Fiziev +105, Ruffy -125. Zane notes that Fiziev was the underdog but the line is quickly shifting.
"I think that Fiziev will crowd him. He's just the more technical striker and the guys that have beat him are really, you know, it's Justin Gaethje who could take a war to him and then a leg injury against …"
Submission R2 2:56 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Benoît Saint Denis 0 17 of 38 44% 37 of 61 3 of 10 30% 1 0 4:38
Maurício Ruffy 0 5 of 17 29% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Benoît Saint Denis 0 6 of 18 33% 19 of 32 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:04
Maurício Ruffy 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Benoît Saint Denis 0 11 of 20 55% 18 of 29 1 of 5 20% 1 0 1:34
Maurício Ruffy 0 4 of 11 36% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Benoît Saint Denis 17 of 38 44% 9 of 26 8 of 12 0 of 0 9 of 26 3 of 3 5 of 9
Maurício Ruffy 5 of 17 29% 4 of 14 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Benoît Saint Denis 6 of 18 33% 2 of 12 4 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 2
Maurício Ruffy 1 of 6 16% 0 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Benoît Saint Denis 11 of 20 55% 7 of 14 4 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 1 5 of 7
Maurício Ruffy 4 of 11 36% 4 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Benoit St. Denis vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-200); St. Denis (+170)

Round 1
Buckle up, buckaroos. The co-main event is here, and it should be a wild one. St. Denis (14-3, 1 NC; 6-3 UFC) and Ruffy (12-1, 3-0 UFC) are about to trade. Nothing more needs to be said, other than that referee Herb Dean is standing by. The lightweights touch gloves. Here we go.
St. Denis introduces himself with a body kick, and then slings one up high. St. Denis rushes at the Brazilian with a looping left hand, and Ruffy bounces off the fencing. St. Denis drops to his knees in pursuit of a double, and he wrangles Ruffy to the mat in about 40 seconds. St. Denis steps over to half guard, side control and then full mount less than one minute into the bout. The crowd is predictably going nuts before St. Denis even starts setting up a chest pressure-based arm-triangle choke. Ruffy turns over to give up his back as St. Denis starts raining down punches, and he tries to pursue a choke while Ruffy stands up. Ruffy spins his opponent around while in a body lock, and he explodes back to his feet. St. Denis times a head kick and goes after a takedown, so Ruffy responds with an intercepting knee. St. Denis tackles the Brazilian to the mat, and he assumes full mount but actually steps to the side so he can retain a controlling posture.
St. Denis gets in a body lock from behind as Ruffy scrambles to turn to his back, and this allows St. Denis to assume full mount again. St. Denis wraps up an arm-triangle choke, and he has it tight but the Fighting Nerds export is able to tough it out. St. Denis drills him with a few ground strikes, and Ruffy muscles his way to his feet. The two tie up against the fencing, jockeying for position and trading knees. St. Denis lands a knee to the groin, or so Ruffy claims to Dean repeatedly. Dean asks the replay official to check the foul, which indeed struck him below the belt. Ruffy gets time to recover as the audience showers him with boos and then songs. Ruffy states he is good to go less than a minute in, and they get back to it. Ruffy wings a big uppercut that misses the mark, and he is countered by a head kick, jab and takedown attempt. Ruffy rebounds off the fencing and takes a flush jab on the way out. St. Denis kicks high and slaps into the guard, and he goes after two kicks to the ribs. St. Denis launches one more head kick that is blocked as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 St. Denis
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 St. Denis
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 St. Denis

Round 2
The second round begins with St. Denis faking a takedown to open up with a head kick. St. Denis hurls a body kick and is jabbed back with a vengeance. Ruffy jumps in the air with a knee that staggers for a second, and St. Denis steels himself and forces himself into a takedown effort. St. Denis gets Ruffy down, but the Brazilian times a picture-perfect reversal to plant the local athlete on his back. St. Denis immediately opens up with an active guard, and Ruffy abandons ship and stands back up, where he misses a huge right hand. St. Denis walks him down and punches his way into a takedown shot, and a knee from St. Denis makes Ruffy cry foul once more. Dean is not hearing it this time, possibly because it is deafening in the arena. St. Denis wrangles his opponent to the ground, grappling him from behind and getting in his hooks.
With the body triangle in play, St. Denis starts clubbing Ruffy on both sides of the head. This softens the Brazilian up, so that St. Denis can fasten a rear-naked choke grip on the chin.
Ruffy is tucking in his chin to protect his neck, and St. Denis squeezes with everything he has. Ruffy is calm and composed, but the face crank is crushing his skull as the French fighter is empowered by the audience that is going positively bonkers at this point. St. Denis does not relent with his vice grip on the jaw, and Ruffy’s eyes go wide as he has tap out with the end of his fingers from the nasty submission.
At that moment, no one in the building can hear themselves think, as the legion of screaming masses explode in support of the man named “God of War.” Until today, Ruffy had never been submitted. He won’t be able to say that anymore, but he is nothing but gracious and professional as he congratulates St. Denis for beating him. That makes 11 finishes this evening, tying the UFC’s single-event record. What a night it has been, and we still have one more to go.

The Official Result
Benoit St. Denis def. Mauricio Ruffy R2 2:56 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Angelo picks Maurício Ruffy confidently, criticizing the hype around Saint Denis. He points out Saint Denis' losses where he was dominated, and argues that Ruffy's dynamic striking and takedown defense will be too much. He believes Ruffy will 'style on' Saint Denis and land clean, big shots. He plans to parlay and bet on Ruffy but is waiting for the line to tighten further.

planning to parlay
"Mauricio Ruffy should run through Benois Saintini."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady picks Maurício Ruffy, believing he will dominate on the feet. He notes Saint Denis has poor striking defense (41%) and has been knocked out before. He thinks if Saint Denis cannot get takedowns, he is in trouble. He predicts a first-round knockout.

Ruffy by knockout, round 1
"I'm going Hoofy by knockout. I'm going to take Hoofy to win this fight and win it by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Connor picks Ruffy, believing he might knock Saint Denis out. He notes that Saint Denis has a Patrick Cummins-like ability to take clean shots and that his defensive flaws are severe. Connor thinks Ruffy's accuracy and power will find a home, and that Saint Denis's aggressive style plays into Ruffy's hands. He acknowledges that Ruffy's level of competition is questionable but sees the potential for a spectacular finish.

"I'm going to pick Ruffy. I think he might knock Saint Denis out."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

The host acknowledges Ruffy's flashy knockout style and fan support but believes he is not ready for Saint Denis's grapple-heavy, smothering approach. He expects Saint Denis to grapple Ruffy, take his back, and sink in a rear-naked choke for a submission victory.

submission (rear-naked choke)
"I think we'll see BSD go out there grapple Huffy eventually get the back and I think it's just a matter of time before he sinks in that rear naked choke and forces the submission from the Brazilian."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

The Guru picks Maurício Ruffy with high confidence, citing Ruffy's speed, shot selection, and ability to set traps. He criticizes Saint Denis' slow, chin-up striking and believes he is ripe for a knockout. He predicts a first-round KO, comparing it to McGregor vs Aldo, and dismisses concerns about Ruffy's grappling.

first round KO
"I'm going with Mauricio Hafi and I'm very confident in Mauricio Huffy as well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Zane picks Saint Denis because he knows what Saint Denis will do—aggressive pressure and physicality—and he doubts Ruffy is ready for that sustained onslaught. He notes that Ruffy's wins have come against inferior athletes and that his trick-striking style may not hold up against a relentless forward fighter. He acknowledges that Saint Denis is vulnerable defensively and may gas, but believes his pace will overwhelm Ruffy.

"I'm picking Benoît Saint-Denis. That's why is it, I know what Benoît Saint-Denis is going to do and he's going to go out there and he's going to try and crush Maurício Ruffy with pace and pressure and physicality."
WIN vs King Green
KO R1 2:07 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Ruffy 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Ruffy 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 4 of 15 26% 1 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 5 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Ruffy 4 of 9 44% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 4 of 15 26% 1 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 5 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Ruffy 4 of 9 44% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bobby Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-470), Green (+360)

Round 1
Two 155-pound strikers will light up the T-Mobile Arena to open up the main card. Green (31-16-1, 1 NC; 13-11-1, 1 NC UFC) has seen better days but is still dangerous even at the age of 38, but he will have to mind his P’s and Q’s against the man 10 years his younger in Ruffy (11-1, 2-0 UFC). Before the frenetic action, referee Chris Tognoni makes sure to keep things official and starts the fight. Ruffy offers a glove, but Green would rather just fight. Green backs himself intentionally to the wall, hands low, ready to counter. Ruffy is composed rather than a marauder, and he blocks a push kick when standing in front of his opponent. Ruffy is keeping Green confused with his rangy punches and movement, and this results in a stalemate and stretches of inactivity. When Green kicks low, Ruffy rings his bell with a straight right hand. Green bounces off the wall and gives a right hand back, but it has far less mustard on it than the one that shook him up. Green surges forward with a left high and a right to the ribs, and chants for “Let’s Go Ruffy” start spreading. The Brazilian absorbs all of this energy from the audience and channels it like a Spirit Bomb, only instead of into his hand, he puts it into his right foot. A picture-perfect spin from Ruffy delivers the wheel kick square into the side of Green’s head, and Green is immediately unconscious and slumps face-first the ground like he got shot by a sniper. Absolutely incredible! Forget “Knockout of the Year,” that wheel kick is up there when it comes to “Knockout of the Decade,” much less one of the best in company history. Unreal. The crowd is electric, no one can hear anyone think. Knowing that there is nothing else he needs to do tonight, Ruffy stands stoically above his fallen opponent, while Tognoni sprints in to make sure Green does not take any more damage. Meanwhile, blood pours out of the nose of the flattened Green, who manages to come to and eventually makes it back to his feet. With plenty of energy left in the tank, Ruffy goes off to perform several flips and capoeira moves, sticking the landing each and every time to further wow the fans. The Fighting Nerds have one more highlight on the reel, and the victorious Ruffy dons his team’s famed glasses and gives commentator Joe Rogan a pair to sport as well. Knowing exactly what he wants next, Ruffy calls for a headlining opportunity against Beneil Dariush. The UFC would be hard pressed to pass that up. Wow. What a knockout. Mauricio Ruffy is for real.

The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Bobby Green R1 2:07 via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Connor picks Ruffy despite acknowledging that stylistically, Green should be able to outbox him. He notes that Green has been getting hurt more often and fighting in a way that leaves him vulnerable to big punchers. Connor believes that even if Green has a good first round, he is likely to get knocked out eventually. He admits the line is too wide and that Ruffy has yet to prove himself against veteran talent.

Odds: Green opened at +405, now +345; Ruffy opened at -654, now -468. Connor thinks the line is too wide.
"I think at this point, I have to feel like even a veteran performance out of Bobby Green is going to be him doing really well for a round, a round and a half, whatever, and just getting melted by …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green, hoping for a vintage performance. He believes that if Green doesn't get knocked out, he can outwork Ruffy with smarter reads and better cardio. Zane points out that Ruffy struggled against James Llontop, who is slow and clumsy, and that Green is a much more technical boxer. He acknowledges the risk but wants to see Green replicate his win over Nasrat Haqparast.

Odds: Green opened at +405, now +345; Ruffy opened at -654, now -468. Zane thinks the line is too wide.
"I'm picking it openly because I want it to happen. Yes. I think it's actually, it's a, you know, it is actually quite possible that Bobby Green can can look. Okay. If he, if he doesn't get knocked out, I …"
WIN vs James Llontop
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Ruffy 1 67 of 113 59% 74 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
James Llontop 0 90 of 236 38% 112 of 260 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Ruffy 0 21 of 31 67% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
James Llontop 0 19 of 63 30% 19 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Maurício Ruffy 1 24 of 42 57% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
James Llontop 0 26 of 78 33% 28 of 80 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
3 Maurício Ruffy 0 22 of 40 55% 28 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
James Llontop 0 45 of 95 47% 65 of 117 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Ruffy 67 of 113 59% 53 of 97 6 of 8 8 of 8 57 of 101 3 of 3 7 of 9
James Llontop 90 of 236 38% 29 of 143 39 of 62 22 of 31 75 of 215 15 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Ruffy 21 of 31 67% 13 of 23 3 of 3 5 of 5 21 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
James Llontop 19 of 63 30% 6 of 36 7 of 14 6 of 13 19 of 62 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Maurício Ruffy 24 of 42 57% 21 of 39 0 of 0 3 of 3 16 of 32 1 of 1 7 of 9
James Llontop 26 of 78 33% 8 of 49 10 of 19 8 of 10 25 of 76 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Maurício Ruffy 22 of 40 55% 19 of 35 3 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
James Llontop 45 of 95 47% 15 of 58 22 of 29 8 of 8 31 of 77 14 of 18 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
James Llontop (166.2: Missed Weight) vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-800), Llontop (+550)

Round 1
One of the largest betting favorites on the card—but still trailing the top name in a huge way tonight—will be Fighting Nerds export Ruffy (10-1, 1-0 UFC), who battles the skidding Llontop (14-4, 0-2 UFC) instead of Charlie Campbell. “Goku” might be in for a rough night, facing an adversary with a 100% knockout rate compared to his own at 50%. There will be no energy blasts allowed in this catchweight contest, so “Goku” will need to rely on his strikes alone. Before hitting the cage, the underdog required accommodations to shift this lightweight match to one at 165, pounds, and he still could not reach that limit. Seeing that Llontop’s back is against the wall, referee Kevin MacDonald checks the fight in, and observes a quick fist bump. Ruffy moves directly to the center of the cage, hopping out of the way of a leg kick and then dodging a second. Ruffy slowly edges forward, measuring a counter right hand but not letting it go. No strike lands until Ruffy connects with a jab 45 seconds in. Llontop whiffs on the counter, and Ruffy jabs him in the belly. Ruffy kicks the front leg and slides out of the way. Llontop surges forward, and Ruffy easily parries the strikes and gets kicked in the midsection at the end. Ruffy connects with a sharp jab and absorbs a low kick, and both men get behind a jab. Ruffy swings for the bleachers with a monstrous right hand, and he only buzzes past the hair of his adversary. The Brazilian smoothly dodges winging punches coming his way, and a few jabs get in on him. Ruffy uses his own jab to break up a big swing, and Llontop goes to the body to follow. Llontop prods out with jabs, and his body kick slips under the elbow. Llontop looses three big punches, and the right hand in the middle of it clips the favorite. Ruffy fires back, only to miss the mark. Two hard leg kicks from Ruffy draw a reaction out of his opponent, who surges into action with a lunging right. Llontop kicks the body and then the front leg, and Ruffy sits down on a shovel uppercut that nearly detaches Llontop’s head from his body. Llontop manages to avoid it in the nick of time, and he kicks the body of his adversary. Ruffy rips a right hand over the top, and he nails the underdog with a big left. Ruffy times a massive right hand that hurts Llontop, and he spins with a tornado kick and falls over. Llontop allows him to stand so he can blast him in the face with a right hand. Ruffy takes it on the chin and lands a punch and spins with a back kick to the ribs. Llontop kicks the front leg once before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy

Round 2
Before the round begins, the crowd chants “USA” but it is unclear who they are supporting between the Brazilian and the Peruvian. They get right to business after tapping gloves, and Ruffy starts promisingly with a spinning kick to the lead leg. Llontop chews up Ruffy’s front leg with a few kicks, and they both connect with jabs. Ruffy tries to time a jab with a spinning back fist, and Llontop is able to block it. Llontop walks the Brazilian down and pitches out a front kick, and he mixes things up with a leg kick and a few punches. Ruffy laughs it off and decks “Goku” with a ferocious left hand, and Llontop rolls around on the ground to regain his composure and work his to his feet. Llontop’s left eye begins swelling in a hurry, and he tries for a takedown but is shoved out of the way. Llontop doubles up on a jab, and Ruffy has his hands low and dodges back to avoid anything further. Ruffy blasts his foe in the face with a right hand from the depths of Hades, and Llontop is tough as nails and keeps on coming forward. Ruffy slips several jabs and a head kick with his hand on his hip, so Llontop goes after the front leg with kicks. Ruffy narrowly misses a big left hand counter when Llontop rushes forward, and he connects with a perfect right hand on the busted eye that stuns Llontop completely. Llontop shakes out the cobwebs, and he goes back to attacking with heavy punches. Ruffy busts him open with his mean right hand, and he lets Llontop dive after a takedown so he can counter him. Ruffy backs off, parrying and blocking a few punches, and Llontop is busy as can be. Ruffy times counters and hops away from big punches so he can pay Llontop back in spades. Ruffy throws everything he has, and he stops after missing and puts both hands on his hips. It is unclear if he is tired or trying to goad Llontop on, but the round ends before anything comes of it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy

Round 3
There is a clap of hands to open up the last round, and Llontop is ready and rearing to go. Ruffy gets behind his jab early, using it to set up and draw out strikes. Llontop kicks the side of his opponent, and Ruffy tries to slip away but is grabbed by the Peruvian. Llontop dirty boxes until Ruffy turns him around, and he misses with an elbow on the break. “Goku” is fighting just as aggressively as before, pushing the pace and not fearing Ruffy’s attacks. Ruffy’s volume diminishes as he looks for single home run strikes, and one big left misses. Llontop drives knees to the body when he ties the favorite up, and a right hand from Ruffy on the break skims the side of his head. Ruffy scores two punches and Llontop kicks his front leg on the kneecap twice. Ruffy goes wide with booming right hands, his hands low when not striking. Llontop beats on Ruffy’s front leg with kicks, and Ruffy gets sick of taking these kicks and punches Llontop in the face a few times. Llontop kicks low and then high, and he drops down after a single that fails. Llontop tries again, and when the takedown comes up short, he knees Ruffy in the chest. Two hard inside leg kicks from Llontop get Ruffy’s attention, and the Peruvian is picking it up while Llontop is flagging. Llontop stomps on the toes when he gets up tight, grinding on Ruffy and working the body with knees and punches up top. Ruffy dodges and slides away when Llontop tries to trap him, and he appears somewhat compromised when his leg gets kicked hard. Ruffy goofs around and dances in place, lifting up a no-look elbow when he sees Llontop coming at him. Ruffy connects with a blistering right hand when Llontop approaches, and he is swinging for the fences. Llontop does the same, and they let one another have it until the final horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Llontop (29-28 Ruffy)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Llontop (29-28 Ruffy)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Llontop (29-28 Ruffy)

The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. James Llontop via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Angelo is very confident in Maurício Ruffy, describing him as an insanely good striker with movement like prime Conor McGregor. He expects Ruffy to defend takedowns and pick apart James Llontop, who is tough but not very technical. He predicts a showcase win for Ruffy.

"very confident in Mauricio ruffy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady picks Maurício Ruffy, though he thinks the line is too wide. He notes that Ruffy is a very good striker with length, speed, and power, but sometimes starts slow. He believes James Llontop has never been finished but will likely eat big shots due to his aggressive style. Brady predicts a third-round knockout, as Ruffy has a 100% finish rate.

"I like kouy 100% finish rate I think he keeps that intact I'll take huy to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Cody picks Maurício Ruffy by knockout, citing his power and finishing ability. He notes Ruffy has knocked out all his opponents and is a product of the Fighting Nerds gym. Cody likes Ruffy by knockout at minus 145 or better, and is not worried about the money line.

by knockout
"ruy or ruy by knockout is uh minus 200 at cool bet so it's kind of been a little bit steam there but there's still like minus 135s minus 150s out there seems like the play to me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Connor also picks Ruffy confidently, agreeing that Llontop is slow and cumbersome, while Ruffy is a fast counter striker. He expects Ruffy to land clean counters and finish the fight. Connor criticizes the matchup as a squash match.

Ruffy wins via KO/TKO
"mariso hoofy is gonna win me... He's going to murder yon top with a couple of really well timed counters."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Vreeland picks Ruffy because he hits very hard and Llontop takes too many punches. Even if Llontop is durable and doesn't get knocked out, Vreeland believes the early violence will be bad enough that Llontop will be down two rounds and cannot finish Ruffy. He expects Ruffy to throw an absurd amount of strikes and win by decision or late finish. He also notes that Llontop took 15 minutes of damage from Slava Claus, and Ruffy hits harder.

Maurício Ruffy higher than 40.5 significant strikes (Underdog fantasy)
"I think the violence early is going to be bad enough for him... I don't see him finishing Huffy so like Mauricio Huffy is my pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Daniel Vreeland picks Maurício Ruffy, highlighting his size, counter-striking ability, and potential to submit or ground-and-pound. He notes Llontop's slow speed and tendency to leave openings, and believes Ruffy can win by knockout, submission, or decision. He mentions Ruffy's training at Fighting Nerds and his well-rounded game.

"I think huy is gonna do his thing here man and move on and uh take another step up the ladder"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Fox picks Ruffy because he is a heavy favorite and Llontop is taking the fight on short notice, which is bad against a powerful striker. He notes Ruffy's knockout power and Llontop's recent losses. Fox is confident Ruffy will win, though he acknowledges the line is steep.

"obviously I'm taking hoofy I'm not taking someone on short notice especially against guy probably gonna have to do a a uh a quick weight cut... against a guy who rattles your brain around in hoofy"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Lucrative James leans toward Maurício Ruffy to win but is skeptical of the -800 price, which he attributes to hype and recency bias from Ruffy's viral scissor sweep. He acknowledges Ruffy's dynamic striking and finishing upside but notes Ruffy has been knocked out before. He thinks Llontop can make it close and that the true line should be around -300. He will not bet on Ruffy at -800 but picks him to win before doing full tape study.

"I'll pick ruffy to win before doing research I do think he will get the win here but I don't think he should be- 800."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Maurício Ruffy

The host thinks the odds are too wide but believes Ruffy is the slicker striker. He expects Llontop's aggressiveness to get him countered, but notes Llontop has solid durability, so the fight likely goes over 1.5 rounds with Ruffy winning on the scorecards.

over 1.5 rounds
"odds way too wide in my opinion here but I do believe that ruffy is the Slicker striker of the two fighters here laop's aggressiveness will get him countered and touched up but laop has shown solid durability throughout his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
James Llontop

Paul picks James Llontop as an underdog, citing his durability, cardio from training at altitude, and volume striking. He notes Ruffy has been knocked out before and has never gone to the third round, while Llontop has a deep gas tank and has never been knocked out. Paul thinks Llontop can take Ruffy's shots and outwork him late, possibly winning a decision.

"I'm in minus 240 I'm in minus 310 I start to question a little bit but yeah he would be my pick minus 900 woof I'm not"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

The MMA Guru picks Maurício Ruffy, expecting a first-round TKO. He notes Llontop took heavy damage in his last fight and is fighting on short notice. He believes Ruffy's flow state striking and power will overwhelm Llontop.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Mauricio Huffy getting this one done first round TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Zane picks Ruffy confidently, noting that Llontop is slow and hittable, while Ruffy is a fast counter striker. He thinks Ruffy will land well-timed counters and finish Llontop. Zane criticizes the matchup as a squash match.

Ruffy wins via KO/TKO
"mariso hoofy is gonna win me... He's going to murder yon top with a couple of really well timed counters."
TKO (punches) R1 4:42 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Ruffy 1 25 of 40 62% 25 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Jamie Mullarkey 0 14 of 38 36% 14 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Ruffy 1 25 of 40 62% 25 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Jamie Mullarkey 0 14 of 38 36% 14 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Ruffy 25 of 40 62% 21 of 35 0 of 1 4 of 4 22 of 37 1 of 1 2 of 2
Jamie Mullarkey 14 of 38 36% 7 of 28 4 of 6 3 of 4 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Ruffy 25 of 40 62% 21 of 35 0 of 1 4 of 4 22 of 37 1 of 1 2 of 2
Jamie Mullarkey 14 of 38 36% 7 of 28 4 of 6 3 of 4 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jamie Mullarkey vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-175), Mullarkey (+145)

Round 1
A striker’s delight at 155 pounds will treat fans to conclude the early preliminary portion of the fight card. With all of his wins and losses coming via knockout, Ruffy (9-1, 0-0 UFC) makes no bones about what he wants to do to willing brawler Mullarkey (17-7, 5-5 UFC). Fists are sure to fly in high quantity and intensity, but before they do, referee Mike Beltran checks them in. Before fists meet faces, they come together sportingly. Ruffy drops down to the floor to drill Mullarkey’s low calf with a Mortal Kombat-esque sweeping kick, and Mullarkey just looks at him. Mullarkey looks for a head kick that misses the mark, and Ruffy hammers his lead leg with a more traditional kick. Ruffy pokes out a jab that reddens the nose of his opponent, and he lands another that gets Mullarkey’s attention. Ruffy puts power behind his strikes, and multiple parts of Mullarkey are red in a hurry. Mullarkey slaps a body kick home, and it is one-and-done as he slips away. Ruffy turns to roll with a heavy right hand just in the nick of time, and he powers out a jab and a winging right hand. Ruffy hammers the lead wheel, and another jab of his opens a cut on the bridge of the nose. Ruffy slips a punch and nails Mullarkey with a right hand, and Mullarkey is tough as a two-dollar steak after eating that without flinching. Mullarkey pursues his own jabs, and Ruffy spins with a wheel kick that gets around the guard. Mullarkey crowds him with a punch salvo, and Ruffy shifts and moves and throws back with a few. Mullarkey keeps powering forward, and Ruffy’s defense is able to keep him safe from most of the harm. Mullarkey fakes a takedown, but Ruffy ignores it and smashes Mullarkey in the face with a ruthless right hand. Ruffy has a right hand skim the top of the head, and he ignores a left hand coming back at him. Ruffy dodges a wide right hand, and he leaps forward to trip Mullarkey up with a flying scissor sweep. Both men hit the ground, but they stand back up and trade. Ruffy beans Mullarkey with two stern right hands, and he times a perfect jump knee that smashes open Mullarkey’s nose. Beltran thinks about stopping the fight but lets it play out a bit longer, and Ruffy does not miss a beat as Mullarkey falls to the ground and climbs back up.
The Brazilian fearlessly marches forward, and he unloads with a long string of punches until Mullarkey collapses in a heap. With Mullarkey on his hands and knees about to take some unnecessary damage, Beltran calls a stop to the fight to save the tough Aussie from himself and the onslaught of the UFC newcomer.
This is a statement introduction for Ruffy, who dons the thick-rimmed glasses of his camp, The Fighting Nerds. Ruffy leaps on top of the cage to celebrate his handiwork, and the crowd goes wild in support of their fighter.

The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Jamie Mullarkey R1 4:42 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Angelo picks Ruffy based on skill sets alone, citing his power and takedown defense. He expresses concern about the huge step up in competition and stage for Ruffy, and notes Mullarkey has been knocked out multiple times. He only considers a bet on Ruffy by knockout if the odds are good.

Angelo says 'the only bet I would even consider is potentially ruffy by knockout' but only if odds are favorable
"I'm going to have to go with the powerful Striker that can defend takedowns I don't love it I don't love it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady emphasizes Mullarkey's poor chin and Ruffy's power, predicting a first-round knockout. He notes Ruffy's low volume but believes he will land a fight-ending shot. He also mentions a prize pick play on Ruffy under 46.5 significant strikes.

under 46.5 significant strikes (PrizePicks)
"I'm taking him to win by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Cody picks Ruffy, citing his knockout power and Mullarkey's questionable chin. He notes Ruffy is coming down from 170 and has finishing ability. Cody expects Ruffy to knock out Mullarkey early.

Ruffy by KO
"Ruffy by knockout for me..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Daniel Vreeland picks Ruffy by KO, citing his 100% finish rate and sniper-like counter right hand. He notes Ruffy's excellent takedown defense and calf kicks that slow opponents. He believes Mullarkey's chin is vulnerable and that Ruffy will find the big shot in the second or third round after frustrating Mullarkey on the feet.

Ruffy by KO/TKO
"I think huy is going to stop the takedowns and I think maybe in the scrambles... we're going to see huy land something big"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Ruffy is on a four-fight winning streak and utilizes a Conor McGregor-like striking style with a straight punch down the pipe. Mullarkey has been knocked out three times in the last two years, so his chin won't hold up against Ruffy's precision striking. Ruffy wins by knockout.

knockout
"give me huffy and Huffy by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Paul picks Ruffy, highlighting Mullarkey's history of getting knocked out and Ruffy's power. He notes Mullarkey's takedown threat is minimal and Ruffy's striking will be too much. Paul expects a knockout.

"I got to go with Mauricio Ruffy... it's just a matter of time before he gets something blown up on his chin."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

The MMA Guru picks Maurício Ruffy, believing Jamie Mullarkey is on borrowed time in the UFC. He criticizes Mullarkey's recent performances and close decisions, while praising Ruffy's power, finishing ability, and toughness shown on the Contender Series. He expects Ruffy to win, possibly by knockout, and notes Ruffy's size and dangerous striking.

"I'm going to go with him to win this fight he's big he's dangerous he's got knockout ability"
Rafael Fiziev - Fight History
SCHED vs Manuel Torres
LOSS vs Maurício Ruffy
KO R2 4:30 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Ruffy 0 36 of 66 54% 37 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 1 55 of 88 62% 60 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Ruffy 0 16 of 33 48% 17 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 18 of 28 64% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
2 Maurício Ruffy 0 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 1 37 of 60 61% 39 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Ruffy 36 of 66 54% 9 of 31 15 of 19 12 of 16 34 of 64 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 55 of 88 62% 45 of 77 4 of 4 6 of 7 42 of 66 1 of 2 12 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Ruffy 16 of 33 48% 2 of 12 7 of 11 7 of 10 14 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 18 of 28 64% 13 of 22 2 of 2 3 of 4 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Maurício Ruffy 20 of 33 60% 7 of 19 8 of 8 5 of 6 20 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 37 of 60 61% 32 of 55 2 of 2 3 of 3 24 of 38 1 of 2 12 of 20
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-122), Fiziev (+102)

Round 1
It’s a striker’s delight in the “featured fight of the night” slot, as lightweights in need of a big win lock ‘em up. “Ataman” Fiziev (13-4, 7-4 UFC) may have struggled having to face Justin Gaethje twice in the span of about two years, but he righted the ship last June by taking out Ignacio Bahamondes. On the other side of the equation, Fighting Nerds staple Ruffy (12-2, 3-1 UFC) saw his mighty win streak come to a crashing halt last year when the co-headliner Benoit St. Denis wrangled and tapped him. This ranked lightweight contest where only man will remain in the top 10 when the dust settles will be officiated by referee Dan Movahedi. The heavy hitters touch gloves before handling their business.
Ruffy in a wide stance holds the center of the cage, avoiding a sweeping low kick while keeping his lead hand dangerously low. The head movement allows Ruffy to dodge a sudden head kick, and he answers with a quick leg kick. Fiziev slowly works his way forward, cutting off the cage and darting in behind a single left hand. Ruffy tosses out another kick, and Fiziev drills him with one that is far heavier. Fiziev ducks away from a tie-up attempt and goes low with another hard kick. Ruffy is not responding well to the calf kicks from the Tiger Muay Thai striking instructor, and Fiziev pressures him all the way to the wall to force a clinch. Ruffy turns him around, and Fiziev is able to escape out the side and nail the body with a kick. Ruffy offers a spinning elbow that is not accurate, and Fiziev walks him down without fear of reprisal.
Ruffy steps in to strike, and he gets caught with a pair of punches and a surprise head kick. Fiziev keeps Ruffy on the back foot, whipping him with kicks to remain pinned to the wall. Ruffy chains a low kick into a step-in knee, and Fiziev barely dodges in time. Both men go to the body, with tit-for-tat powerful single striking exchanges. Ruffy largely throws one at a time, while Fiziev walks through them and fires of his own combos. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy

Round 2
The athletes meet in the middle, with Fiziev starting off with strong body kicks. Ruffy replies with a solid right hand to back him off, and he spins with a back kick that Fiziev evades in time. Fiziev kicks low and then to the ribs, and he ducks under a sweeping left hand. Ruffy sneaks in a right hand over the top, and he partially checks a low kick. Fiziev rushes in with a left hook, and he keeps his opponent skirting on the back wall. They trade punches, with Fiziev taking a low kick on the way out that he does not defend well. Ruffy prods out a few jabs and is met with a hard body kick, and he winds up with a huge right hand that Fiziev takes flush.
Fiziev spins with a wheel kick and bounces off, and he resets without Ruffy taking advantage of it. Fiziev kicks at the front calf, and is answered with one from his opponent. Fiziev digs a right to the midsection, and then ducks in to go left to the liver. Ruffy retreats, and he takes low kicks on both sides. Ruffy reaches out with a right, and he bats Fiziev upside the head with a standing back fist. Fiziev walks Fiziev down and boots him in the liver again, and he gets backed off with a straight jab but is right in front of Ruffy. Ruffy measures his man and blasts Fiziev in the face with a right hand down the pipe, and Fiziev goes squirrely and on ice skates trips around the cage barely able to stay upright. Movahedi thinks to step in, but allows them to keep fighting. Ruffy does not go wild, instead picking his shots and methodically clobbering Fiziev with ground strikes. Fiziev still has his head on a swivel, and he sways and moves so that he can work his way back to his feet, but after several more blistering right hands, he is in a bad way as his balance has completely abandoned him.
Ruffy is able to bully Fiziev down to the ground again, partly due to Fiziev clinging to consciousness with figurative stars over his head like a "Street Fighter" character, and he unloads with a brief but final, concussive bombardment of punches until Movahedi does intervene.
This is a huge triumph for Ruffy, earning easily the biggest win of his career by putting away a renowned muay thai striker and trainer.

The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Rafael Fiziev R2 4:30 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo picks Rafael Fiziev, stating he is the better traditional striker and has shown he can wrestle and grapple, which is a key advantage. He notes that Ruffy is creative and powerful but was frozen by takedowns in his last fight. Fiziev has dog in him and made adjustments in his last fight. Angelo sees value at minus 115 given their resumes.

minus 115 seems like solid value
"Raphael Faziv is the pick and minus 115 given their resumes honestly seems like solid value here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady slightly leans toward Maurício Ruffy in a close striker's delight. He notes Fiziev has slowed down in the third round historically and didn't look great against Gachi after injury. Ruffy is a high-level striker with flashy spinning attacks and won't fade. Brady sees it as a 29-28 split decision either way, but expects Ruffy to take over late.

"I'm going to ever so slightly lean with Mauricio Hufi to win a very close decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Cody believes Fiziev is undervalued as a slight underdog. He criticizes Ruffy's reliance on flashy knockouts and low volume, noting that Ruffy was outstruck by James Llontop and only landed 3 significant strikes before his wheel kick KO of Bobby Green. He praises Fiziev's veteran savvy, volume, and ability to mix in wrestling, predicting a close decision win for Fiziev.

"Phys's he's got more volume by the numbers, but not like a runaway amount. The difference is if you want to go punch for punch with Raphael Phys, he lands eyecatching stuff, man."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Connor picks Fiziev, arguing that Ruffy is a smoke-and-mirrors fighter who is not a natural counter puncher and struggles when pressured. He notes that Fiziev is a superior technician with good takedown defense and that Ruffy's only path to victory is a lucky knockout. He also points out that Ruffy's wins are against slow or limited opponents, while Fiziev has fought elite competition.

Odds: Fiziev +105, Ruffy -125. Connor is surprised Fiziev is the underdog and notes the line is moving.
"I have to pick Fiziev. It's just, yeah, totally. There's a well fighting a superior technician who is super fast and who's only real weakness is a sort of like loss of cohesion late in the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Daniel Vreeland picks Ruffy as a dog, viewing the line as a market overcorrection. He believes Ruffy is a special striker who can match Fiziev's speed and technique, and that Fiziev has slowed down since his ACL surgery. Vreeland also notes that Ruffy has improved by training with Volkanovski and that Fiziev lacks a ground threat, making this a striking match where Ruffy can win.

"I took Mauricio Hui at plus 107 odds. I put one unit on it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

James picks Ruffy to win by KO, citing Ruffy's youth, distance control, and timing advantage. He believes Fiziev is on a downtrend and may be hesitant to engage. James notes Ruffy's training with Volkanovski and that Fiziev's wrestling won't be effective. He sees Ruffy's durability and power as key factors.

"I got Rua in this one, boys. I got Rua via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Fiziev is a nasty Muay Thai striker with good speed, combinations, and countering ability. He has improved his wrestling, as shown in his last fight where he landed four takedowns. Ruffy struggles with grapplers and was broken mentally by Saint Denis. Fiziev's durability is ironclad, and he should push the pace, counter effectively, and mix in takedowns. The host is baffled that Fiziev is the underdog and expects a finish in round two or three.

Fiziev by knockout round 2 or 3
"There it is. Raphael Fizz by knockout round two or round three."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ruffy is overvalued due to his flashy style and that Fiziev is a more complete fighter. He highlights Fiziev's ability to mix in takedowns and his experience against top competition. He expects Fiziev to win a close decision.

"I think Faze can hang with this guy on the feet. Ruffy if he wins will win like big huge exciting kind of moments but veteran savvy sneak in a takedown round and kind of just scrape by on probably …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, citing his superior striking, timing, and ability to chop at opponents with kicks. He notes Ruffy's weaknesses in fundamentals and predicts Fiziev will win by decision, possibly 29-28. He expects Ruffy to have a good third round but Fiziev's technical edge will prevail.

decision 29-28
"I'm going with FizzV, dude."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Zane picks Fiziev, emphasizing that Ruffy is limited strategically and relies on time and space to set up shots. He notes that Fiziev is a capable, controlled striker who can crowd Ruffy and take him down if needed. He also mentions that Ruffy's takedown defense is poor and that Fiziev's only losses are to elite fighters like Gaethje and Gamrot.

Odds: Fiziev +105, Ruffy -125. Zane notes that Fiziev was the underdog but the line is quickly shifting.
"I think that Fiziev will crowd him. He's just the more technical striker and the guys that have beat him are really, you know, it's Justin Gaethje who could take a war to him and then a leg injury against …"
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Fiziev 0 62 of 113 54% 87 of 141 4 of 4 100% 0 0 1:43
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 50 of 147 34% 62 of 165 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Fiziev 0 17 of 25 68% 17 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 13 of 46 28% 13 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafael Fiziev 0 15 of 28 53% 28 of 41 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:55
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 20 of 44 45% 23 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:43
3 Rafael Fiziev 0 30 of 60 50% 42 of 75 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:48
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 17 of 57 29% 26 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Fiziev 62 of 113 54% 31 of 72 25 of 34 6 of 7 52 of 96 5 of 7 5 of 10
Ignacio Bahamondes 50 of 147 34% 23 of 108 13 of 17 14 of 22 47 of 139 3 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Fiziev 17 of 25 68% 4 of 10 9 of 10 4 of 5 17 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ignacio Bahamondes 13 of 46 28% 2 of 26 3 of 5 8 of 15 13 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafael Fiziev 15 of 28 53% 8 of 20 6 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 24 1 of 2 1 of 2
Ignacio Bahamondes 20 of 44 45% 7 of 30 9 of 9 4 of 5 19 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Rafael Fiziev 30 of 60 50% 19 of 42 10 of 17 1 of 1 22 of 47 4 of 5 4 of 8
Ignacio Bahamondes 17 of 57 29% 14 of 52 1 of 3 2 of 2 15 of 52 2 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Angelo picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his length, striking, and multiple ways to win. He acknowledges that Fiziev is the better striker but thinks Bahamondes is on a run and has more finishing options. He notes that Fiziev may have slowed down after injuries and tough fights. He recommends exposure to both in multiple lineups.

Recommends exposure to both fighters in multiple lineups.
"Ignasio Bahamandez is going to be my pick. You probably want exposure to both of them if you have multiple lineups."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev despite him being on a three-fight skid, noting that Fiziev's losses came against top competition (Gamrot, Gaethje twice) and one was on short notice. He believes Bahamondes is taking a step up in competition and that Fiziev's speed, power, and movement will cause problems early. Brady acknowledges Fiziev's cardio issues but thinks the fight goes to decision and that hometown judges will favor Fiziev in a close fight. He predicts a greasy, possibly controversial decision win for Fiziev.

fight goes the distance, hometown decision
"I'm going to go with Phys here. I'm going to go Faze to get the job done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Connor picks Fiziev, agreeing with Zane that Bahamondes' reversion to pocket fighting against Turner is a bad sign against Fiziev. He notes that Bahamondes has lost to short, explosive strikers before and that Fiziev is a much more polished striker than Bahamondes' recent opponents. He believes Fiziev's technical edge and the fact that Bahamondes hasn't proven his new style against a serious range striker make Fiziev the clear pick.

"I have to pick Fiziv here coming off that gage fight. I just think, you know, he looked good. He looked great in that fight, honestly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The host is surprised Bahamondes is the slight favorite. He thinks Fiziev may have handpicked his opponent to perform in front of his hometown crowd. He expects Fiziev's speed advantage and wrestling to thwart Bahamondes' distance striking, leading to a big shot or control time for a decision win.

"Very surprised that Bahamundes finds himself as the slight favorite here cuz this is a spot where Fiziev was maybe able to handpick his opponent so that he can perform form in front of his hometown crowd. I think his …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his range and improved distance management. He believes Fiziev's size disadvantage and recent war with Justin Gaethje will be factors. He expects Bahamondes to pick Fiziev apart as the fight goes on, predicting a third-round finish.

Bahamondes wins by TKO in round 3
"I'm gonna go with Ignario Bahamandez over Ra Rafael Fizzv. I think the range and all of that is just going to be a bit much for Fizzv."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Zane picks Fiziev, noting that Fiziev looked great in his return against Gaethje despite losing, and that Bahamondes has struggled against shorter, better range strikers like Ludovic Klein and John McDessie. He points out that Bahamondes' instinct to sit in the pocket and trade hooks plays into Fiziev's strengths, and that Bahamondes' new rangy style hasn't been tested against a serious striker. He believes Fiziev's technical advantage will be decisive even if he tires.

"I'm totally taking Fiziv as well. I just wanted to raise the point that Fiziv with his own new fondness for fighting like off the back foot and from kicking range might once again run into some hiccups..."
LOSS vs Justin Gaethje
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Gaethje 1 72 of 134 53% 98 of 163 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:32
Rafael Fiziev 0 68 of 119 57% 81 of 134 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Gaethje 0 12 of 21 57% 17 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Rafael Fiziev 0 21 of 32 65% 22 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:40
2 Justin Gaethje 1 21 of 52 40% 34 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Rafael Fiziev 0 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Justin Gaethje 0 39 of 61 63% 47 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:35
Rafael Fiziev 0 30 of 47 63% 42 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Gaethje 72 of 134 53% 56 of 117 9 of 9 7 of 8 41 of 92 26 of 34 5 of 8
Rafael Fiziev 68 of 119 57% 20 of 61 43 of 52 5 of 6 49 of 100 14 of 14 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Gaethje 12 of 21 57% 7 of 15 1 of 1 4 of 5 9 of 15 3 of 6 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 21 of 32 65% 6 of 16 13 of 14 2 of 2 9 of 20 7 of 7 5 of 5
2 Justin Gaethje 21 of 52 40% 16 of 47 4 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 39 5 of 5 5 of 8
Rafael Fiziev 17 of 40 42% 6 of 24 9 of 13 2 of 3 16 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Justin Gaethje 39 of 61 63% 33 of 55 4 of 4 2 of 2 21 of 38 18 of 23 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 30 of 47 63% 8 of 21 21 of 25 1 of 1 24 of 41 6 of 6 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Connor picks Gaethje because he has more faith in Gaethje's cardio and durability than Fiziev's coming off a knee injury and short notice. He notes that Fiziev faded in their first fight and has not looked good since, while Gaethje's loss to Holloway was a stylistic nightmare that doesn't reflect his overall level. Connor believes Gaethje's jab and pressure will be too much for a rusty Fiziev.

Odds: Gaethje opened at -110, now +135; Fiziev opened at -110, now -163. Connor is surprised bettors are backing Fiziev.
"I'm just, I'm going to pick Gagey again, like I, yeah. He might go through the same process, but I can't have more faith in physives, uh, in physives cardio and his fitness coming off of a horrible injured, like …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Lucrative James picks Fiziev but is not confident due to intangibles like Gaethje's recent KO loss and Fiziev's knee injury layoff. He thinks Fiziev is the better striker and will land counters, but Gaethje could take over late if he pressures. He predicts Fiziev by KO, similar to his first fight prediction. He notes the line has moved from -250 to -155, indicating market correction.

Fiziev via KO; under 2.5 rounds at plus money
"I'm going to go with Rafael fiz here I'm not super confident about it but I will predict him to win the fight via KO the exact same prediction as I gave in the first iteration of this fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Zane picks Gaethje, echoing Connor's reasoning about Fiziev's injury and short notice. He notes that Fiziev's pacing has always been a problem and that he tends to gas in round three. Zane also points out that Fiziev's style of crashing into Gaethje plays into Gaethje's strengths in the clinch and pocket. He is surprised by the betting line moving toward Fiziev.

Odds: Gaethje opened at -110, now +135; Fiziev opened at -110, now -163. Zane is surprised bettors are backing Fiziev.
"I got to think Gagey should be the favorite, especially on a short note, it's coming off an injury. Like, I know, I don't understand why gamblers would be leaning on Fiziv here."
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
TKO (knee injury) R2 2:03 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 32 56% 19 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 16 of 40 40% 17 of 42 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 16 of 27 59% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 2 of 5 40% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 32 56% 4 of 14 12 of 16 2 of 2 18 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 16 of 40 40% 11 of 31 2 of 5 3 of 4 13 of 35 1 of 1 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 16 of 27 59% 4 of 11 10 of 14 2 of 2 16 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 12 of 34 35% 7 of 25 2 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo picks Fiziev for the first time against Gamrot. He notes Fiziev is the better striker and has shown a willingness to go to war. He thinks over five rounds, Fiziev will eventually catch Gamrot. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling and durability, and says Gamrot at the current moneyline is great value.

Gamrot at current moneyline is great value
"the reality is physiov probably gonna win this fight he is gonna be my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev to win by decision, noting he would max-bet Fiziev if it were a three-round fight. He praises Fiziev's striking power and improvement, but worries about his cardio in the championship rounds. He expects Fiziev to stuff takedowns early and bank the first three rounds, possibly knocking Gamrot down. He acknowledges Gamrot's relentless pace and never-slow-down cardio could make it close late.

"I'm gonna take physio to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Cody leans towards Gamrot as a live underdog, emphasizing that Fiziev's cardio fades in later rounds and Gamrot's wrestling can exploit that. He notes Gamrot has never been finished and has a strong chin, but acknowledges Fiziev's striking advantage early. He prefers to bet Gamrot live at a better price rather than pre-fight.

Prefers live betting on Gamrot at plus money; mentions Gamrot's takedown ability and Fiziev's fatigue in later rounds.
"I'm leaning right now towards gamrod... I would much rather just hit this live a bigger plus money price tag on the two's gamron."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel sees this as a very close fight that could go either way, so he leans toward the underdog. He highlights Gamrot's relentless takedown attempts (21 vs. Tsarukyan, 19 vs. Dern) and his unique low-single wrestling style that Fiziev hasn't faced. He worries Fiziev may fade in the later rounds under constant grappling pressure, leading to Gamrot taking over in rounds 3-5. He acknowledges Fiziev's athleticism and takedown defense but thinks the volume of attempts will eventually pay off.

plus 130 underdog value; hopes line moves to plus 135
"I'm going to have to go with the plus 130 hopefully maybe even a plus 135 or a plus 40 later on in the week on gamr"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Lucrative James picks Fiziev, citing his takedown defense and Muay Thai balance to stuff Gamrot's single-leg attempts. He believes Fiziev will land critical damage on the feet and potentially finish Gamrot. Even if it goes late, he thinks Gamrot will be too damaged to capitalize on his cardio edge. He placed 3 units on Fiziev at -136.

3 units at -136
"I like Fiziev in this spot... I think he's going to defend the takedowns and knock out Gamrot on the feet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The host picks Gamrot as an underdog, reasoning that Fiziev fades in later rounds while Gamrot has proven cardio and grappling over five rounds. He notes Fiziev's 90% takedown defense but believes Gamrot's relentless pressure and chain wrestling will wear him down, leading to a decision win in rounds 3-5. The host also mentions the over 4.5 rounds as a good prop.

over 4.5 rounds
"give me the underdog shot on the Polish fighter here and Montage camera to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Paul leans slightly towards Fiziev, citing his striking advantage and improved takedown defense early. He worries about Gamrot's low volume and that judges may not reward takedowns without damage. However, he is not confident enough to bet pre-fight and will wait for weigh-ins.

"I'm leaning ever so slightly to physive but um I mean I'm gonna wait for weigh-ins and and all of that it's not a fight that I feel like I need to get money on."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, criticizing Mateusz Gamrot's striking as limited to a one-two and takedown attempts. He believes Fiziev's body kicks and counter shots will be effective, and predicts a first or second round TKO. He notes Fiziev's strength and low center of gravity, and argues that the 'secret better half' of lightweight (including Fiziev) tends to beat grapplers like Gamrot. He acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling but thinks Fiziev's danger will prevail.

first or second round TKO
"I'm going for Raphael physiov I just can't unsee it... I think physio is actually going to get a first or second round TKO and make a statement against gamrot"
LOSS vs Justin Gaethje
Decision (majority) (29–28, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Gaethje 0 103 of 171 60% 106 of 174 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:05
Rafael Fiziev 0 97 of 169 57% 97 of 169 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Gaethje 0 23 of 36 63% 23 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 27 of 50 54% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Justin Gaethje 0 27 of 48 56% 29 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 32 of 49 65% 32 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Justin Gaethje 0 53 of 87 60% 54 of 88 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Rafael Fiziev 0 38 of 70 54% 38 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Gaethje 103 of 171 60% 81 of 142 14 of 15 8 of 14 84 of 147 19 of 24 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 97 of 169 57% 38 of 100 52 of 61 7 of 8 81 of 151 16 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Gaethje 23 of 36 63% 11 of 21 7 of 8 5 of 7 20 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 27 of 50 54% 11 of 29 15 of 19 1 of 2 25 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Justin Gaethje 27 of 48 56% 22 of 41 3 of 3 2 of 4 23 of 44 4 of 4 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 32 of 49 65% 12 of 27 18 of 20 2 of 2 27 of 43 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Justin Gaethje 53 of 87 60% 48 of 80 4 of 4 1 of 3 41 of 70 12 of 17 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 38 of 70 54% 15 of 44 19 of 22 4 of 4 29 of 60 9 of 10 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiziev (-148), Gaethje (+124)

Round 1
It might not be the fight some were hoping to see, but if their first rumble was any indication, Gaethje (25-5, 8-5 UFC) vs. Fiziev (12-3, 6-3 UFC) 2 should be crackerjack material. Due to the late notice of this lightweight rematch, the two will be scheduled for three five-minute rounds instead of 5x5 like when Gaethje was planning on facing Dan Hooker. In a contest that could easily headline any Fight Night offering out there, these two strikers plan on picking right where they left off. Referee Jason Herzog has donned his hard hat to protect from any errant blows once these two mighty gladiators start swinging. There is a sign of respect before the anticipated brawl, as the men high-five in the center of the cage. Immediate chants of “USA” in support of Gaethje drown out any other audio in the building, and they die down as the fighters do not commit to much. When Gaethje lands his first full-throated strike, Fiziev tackles him to the canvas with a surprise takedown. Gaethje scrambles to get out of the precarious predicament, and Fiziev quickly tries for another level change. The man from Kazakhstan successfully puts Gaethje down again, where he winds up sitting in an inverted triangle choke position dropping down elbows. Gaethje calmly remains in the position until exploding out, and he resets in the center of the cage and takes a right hand over the top. Fiziev jabs his foe in the stomach and then comes up top with another, only for Gaethje to walk him down and uppercut him in the jaw. Gaethje wings a right hand that lands at the end of it, and it is one-and-done as he slowly creeps forward towards his adversary. Fiziev pushes his foe back with a jab to the chest and a leg kick, and his jab keeps Gaethje from engaging fully. Gaethje swings his way in, and Fiziev greets him with a knee and a tie-up. Fiziev rips another two knees to the body, and Gaethje strikes back and swings a right hand up top. Fiziev targets the body with a kick and stings him with a left hand, and he goes after another audible body kick. Gaethje closes in on him as if he wants to take the fight down, but Fiziev’s balance holds up as he knees Gaethje in the ribcage. Gaethje slashes with an elbow up close and forces a break, and he unloads a right hand square on Fiziev’s eye socket. Fiziev kicks, and he recoils it awkwardly. Gaethje shoots for a takedown, and when it fails, he catches Fiziev with a pair of punches. Gaethje goes wide with a kick, and Fiziev sneaks in a left right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev

Round 2
The lightweights touch gloves to get back to it, and Gaethje leads the dance with two inaccurate hooks. Gaethje ducks and lashes out with a right and a left, staying in Fiziev’s face until Fiziev partially lands a groin kick. Herzog calls time, and Gaethje takes a little more than 15 seconds before he’s good to go again. Fiziev lunges with a left hand, and his right that follows scores effectively. Gaethje dings him with two hooks, and he absorbs a leg kick before he can back out. “The Highlight” come up short on most of his swings, but he does clip the striking coach with a left hook. Fiziev considers a takedown, bailing on it and taking a few punches on the way out. Fiziev lands a couple in the pocket, but he wants to get out of the brawl and into his preferred technical range. Fiziev looses a body kick and a left to the ribs, and he waves Fiziev on for more as he walks him down. Gaethje slips and comes up top with a vicious overhand right, and he absorbs a body kick and has a head kick skim his dome. Gaethje shakes it off, asks for more and puts his hands on Fiziev’s face. Fiziev misses with a massive right hand, and he kicks low and is checked. Fiziev steps in with a knee to the torso, and Gaethje gives him a clean uppercut to the body and a right hand to break up the brief clinch. Gaethje intercepts his foe with a short left, and he ducks into an uppercut. Fiziev times a perfect knee when Gaethje ducks, and Gaethje slips a few punches and blasts Fiziev with a brutal uppercut that knocks him clean off his feet. Gaethje pounces to try to finish the job, smothering Fiziev when Fiziev turns to his knees and starts beating on his side. Fiziev grits his teeth and works to his feet, but Gaethje drills him with a right hand on the way. Fiziev swings a head kick that bangs into the raised guard, and he leans back to watch a Gaethje head kick pass him by. The tense, exciting round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje

Round 3
There is a final high-five to open the final stanza, and Gaethje is quick to engage and swat his left hand. Gaethje looks for his uppercut, and it just grazes the beard. Fiziev backs off to unload a spinning wheel kick that bangs into Gaethje’s chin, and Gaethje wipes his nose and paws out a left hand. Fiziev chops at the lead leg, and Gaethje unloads three successive uppercut right hands that catch Fiziev cleanly. Fiziev stands firm in the pocket and cracks Gaethje with a left hand, and Gaethje waves him on. Fiziev whips kick after kick to the body, with Gaethje calling him on every time. Fiziev kicks him upside the head, and Gaethje drills him with an uppercut on the way out. Gaethje trips and stumbles but gathers himself, tying Fiziev up and clipping him with a right hand. Fiziev blasts him with punches and knees to the body, while Gaethje punches him in the head time and time again. One fierce right hand from Gaethje lumps up Fiziev’s left eye in a hurry, and the two get in the clinch and practiced muay thai with ferocious knees. Gaethje breaks and swings a sneaky head kick up top, catching Fiziev in the side of the head leaned over. Gaethje pushes his foe against the wall and delivers three crisp uppercuts on the jaw, and he takes a step back and slips. Gaethje pours it on with power punches, and he uppercuts Fiziev a few more times when they are tied up. Fiziev knees Gaethje in the belly any time they clinch, and Gaethje scores the right hand frequently when breaking. Gaethje strings a jab and an uppercut into a takedown effort, where he pushes Fiziev to the wire but does not ground him. Gaethje imposes his pressure and works the body, and Fiziev knees him back up close. When Fiziev tries to escape, Gaethje catches him on the way out. Fiziev sits on two punches and a high kick, and Gaethje laughs it off and kicks Fiziev in the face. Gaethje unloads a swarm of wild hooks, rocking Fiziev and hurting him badly. Fiziev steels himself and knees Gaethje, and the horn sounds to conclude the dramatic lightweight tilt. What a fight, living up to the hype about as much as it can.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (29-28 Gaethje)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (29-28 Gaethje)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (29-28 Gaethje)

The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Rafael Fiziev via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo is confident in Fiziev because he is the most technical striker in the division and Gaethje struggles with technical strikers. He notes Fiziev has phenomenal takedown defense and has defended takedowns from elite grapplers. He thinks Gaethje's power is always a threat but Fiziev should outclass him on the feet.

"I think physique wins this fight I think he's uh someone of an easy pick here because stylistically Justin gagey struggles with technical Strikers."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Big Brady picks Fiziev, citing his technical striking and youth. He questions Gaethje's durability due to accumulated damage and notes Gaethje looked tired in the Oliveira fight. He believes Fiziev can knock Gaethje out, predicting a second-round KO. He expects a war but trusts Fiziev's cardio and skills.

"I like physia by knockout I think he's Gonna Knock Out Just engage you at some point in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Cody picks Fiziev, citing Gaethje's accumulated damage and declining durability. He notes Gaethje's reckless style leaves him open to counters, and Fiziev's technical striking and ability to intercept shots will be key. He mentions Gaethje's wrestling is an option but he chooses not to use it. He doesn't love the moneyline but sees Fiziev as the cleaner striker. He has no strong prop lean but says the pick is Fiziev.

"I will go with Raphael physique don't have a prop on it as much as I would like to say physique by decision... the pick would be fizzy"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Rafael Fiziev

Connor picks Fiziev because Gaethje has become a back-foot counter puncher who no longer pressures. He notes that Gaethje's new approach makes him vulnerable to fighters who can draw out his counters and come back with combinations, as Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier did. Fiziev is a fast, technical striker with good body work and defensive responsibility. Connor thinks Fiziev's ability to slip and counter will be key, and that Gaethje's lack of subtle adjustments will hurt him. He also notes that Fiziev's kicking game and creativity will give Gaethje trouble.

Gaethje opened +235, currently +187; Fiziev opened -275, currently -232
"I think physique is a smart enough fighter to put a lot of bodywork in even if he just does his normal amount, it will take its toll."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Jacob is a big fan of Fiziev and thinks he is the best striker in the UFC regardless of weight class. He notes Fiziev knocked out his former striking coach Brad Riddell. He thinks Fiziev will expose Gaethje's striking as high school level with precise counters. He expects a dominant win.

"I think he's the best striker in the UFC currently regardless of weight class he's going to show it off Saturday and get a dominant win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Fiziev is a technical Muay Thai striker with good defense and cardio, while Gaethje is a brawler who may be slowing down at 34. Fiziev's technical advantage should allow him to counter Gaethje's wild hooks and leg kicks, leading to a knockout. Gaethje's durability is a concern, and Fiziev is the younger, hungrier fighter.

"I think the technical advantages that physiev has in this matchup is going to open up a tremendous amount of knockout opportunities for him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Paul echoes Cody's sentiment, picking Fiziev as the better striker. He notes Fiziev's takedown defense was impressive against dos Anjos, and Gaethje is unlikely to wrestle. He acknowledges Gaethje's power and volume make him live, but thinks Fiziev's technical edge wins out. He says minus 225 is about right and he won't bet it, but Fiziev is the pick.

"I'm picking physiv I think he's the better overall Striker... minus 225 I think the books have this vote right like gaichi's 100 live"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev to win by TKO, calling it a terrible matchup for Gaethje. He notes Fiziev is a kickboxer who doesn't have to worry about takedowns, allowing him to focus on striking. Gaethje's weaknesses include leg kicks, body shots, and a high guard that leaves his body open. Fiziev has the best body shots in the division and will chop the legs, rip the body, and eventually land a body-head combo for a KO. He also mentions Gaethje's accumulated damage and recent KO loss as factors.

Fiziev wins by TKO (body-head combo)
"terrible matchup for Gucci I'm going with physiev by TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Rafael Fiziev

Zane also picks Fiziev, citing Gaethje's increasing unwillingness to pressure. He notes that Gaethje has struggled against consistent technical strikers who are not easily breakable, like Poirier and Alvarez. Fiziev is a fast, powerful kicker who can work at range and in the pocket. Zane thinks Fiziev's defense and combination punching will be effective, and that Gaethje's habit of overcommitting on counters will leave him off-balance. He also mentions that Fiziev's body work could slow Gaethje down, and that this is a good matchup for Fiziev at the right time.

Gaethje opened +235, currently +187; Fiziev opened -275, currently -232
"The increasing unwillingness to pressure from Gachie is a major concern."
KO (punches) R5 0:18 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Fiziev 0 54 of 110 49% 90 of 162 2 of 16 12% 0 0 6:13
Rafael dos Anjos 1 64 of 159 40% 92 of 192 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Fiziev 0 9 of 26 34% 22 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:08
Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 41 34% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafael Fiziev 0 19 of 36 52% 25 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:31
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 44 38% 20 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
3 Rafael Fiziev 0 9 of 22 40% 13 of 32 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:46
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 38 44% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
4 Rafael Fiziev 0 15 of 23 65% 28 of 41 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:48
Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 27 44% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
5 Rafael Fiziev 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael dos Anjos 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Fiziev 54 of 110 49% 31 of 80 12 of 14 11 of 16 50 of 106 4 of 4 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 64 of 159 40% 32 of 102 27 of 52 5 of 5 62 of 155 1 of 2 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Fiziev 9 of 26 34% 5 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 4 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 41 34% 8 of 26 6 of 15 0 of 0 14 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafael Fiziev 19 of 36 52% 10 of 26 7 of 7 2 of 3 18 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 44 38% 6 of 27 9 of 15 2 of 2 17 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael Fiziev 9 of 22 40% 6 of 16 2 of 3 1 of 3 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 38 44% 7 of 26 8 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Rafael Fiziev 15 of 23 65% 9 of 17 1 of 1 5 of 5 13 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 27 44% 7 of 17 4 of 9 1 of 1 11 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Rafael Fiziev 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 9 44% 4 of 6 0 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos as a +170 underdog, citing his grappling, size advantage, cardio, and durability. He notes Fiziev is the better striker but has questionable cardio, especially in a 5-round fight. He points out that RDA has not lost in 6 years without being taken down, and Fiziev is unlikely to initiate takedowns. He already has a moneyline bet on RDA at +170.

Already has a moneyline bet on Rafael dos Anjos at +170.
"I like rafael dosanos I already got a money line bet on him at plus 170."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing the five-round distance as a key factor. He notes that Fiziev has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in third rounds of past fights, while RDA has proven cardio and experience in championship rounds. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns to test Fiziev's 95% takedown defense and cardio, potentially taking over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for RDA, acknowledging Fiziev could knock him out early.

"i'm gonna pick rda here to win this fight and win it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Cody believes Fiziev has the advantage in striking with better hands and kicks, and his takedown defense is strong. He thinks Fiziev's cardio is sufficient to secure early rounds and then survive if needed. He sees RDA as a gatekeeper and Fiziev as a rising contender, calling it a passing of the torch.

Mentions RDA over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks as a play.
"gotta go with raphael physique so when you're looking at the odds of course it doesn't look you know great like uh you got minus 225 and raphael's eve versus more of a proven commodity in rafael sanyos"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host discusses the Fiziev vs RDA fight but does not place a bet on it. He acknowledges the value on RDA as an underdog and respects those who pick him, but he personally keeps the fight out of his betting card. He mentions having Fiziev in a parlay but does not elaborate on a clear pick. He notes that Fiziev is younger, faster, and stronger, but RDA is durable and could win by decision. Ultimately, he does not commit to a side.

"I have a bet on Johnson and I understand the value on our day like if you're seeing perceived value on RDA I'd absolutely agree with you which is why I'm not touching that fight but I still do think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul thinks the price on Fiziev is too wide and expects to get RDA at a better price closer to fight time. He notes RDA's wrestling could be a factor, especially in a five-round fight, and that Fiziev's takedown defense hasn't been fully tested. He calls it a dogger pass situation but leans RDA.

Mentions RDA over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks as a play.
"i just think it's uh the price is a little bit too wide and it's continuing to grow so it's like i feel like by the time we get to fight time i'm gonna probably end up with an rda …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, believing RDA's style is tailor-made to lose to Fiziev. He notes Fiziev's body work, takedown defense, and youth advantage. He predicts Fiziev will win the first three rounds decisively, possibly a 4-1 decision, with RDA making a late resurgence but ultimately losing.

4-1 decision
"I've got to side with Rafael Fiziev here."
WIN vs Brad Riddell
KO (spinning wheel kick) R3 2:20 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Fiziev 0 59 of 115 51% 62 of 118 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:14
Brad Riddell 0 66 of 123 53% 66 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Fiziev 0 21 of 41 51% 21 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brad Riddell 0 19 of 35 54% 19 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafael Fiziev 0 22 of 50 44% 23 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brad Riddell 0 30 of 59 50% 30 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
3 Rafael Fiziev 0 16 of 24 66% 18 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:14
Brad Riddell 0 17 of 29 58% 17 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Fiziev 59 of 115 51% 23 of 72 20 of 26 16 of 17 59 of 114 0 of 1 0 of 0
Brad Riddell 66 of 123 53% 36 of 78 22 of 30 8 of 15 64 of 121 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Fiziev 21 of 41 51% 9 of 28 7 of 8 5 of 5 21 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brad Riddell 19 of 35 54% 10 of 18 7 of 10 2 of 7 19 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafael Fiziev 22 of 50 44% 8 of 30 8 of 13 6 of 7 22 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 0
Brad Riddell 30 of 59 50% 14 of 38 13 of 17 3 of 4 28 of 57 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Rafael Fiziev 16 of 24 66% 6 of 14 5 of 5 5 of 5 16 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brad Riddell 17 of 29 58% 12 of 22 2 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo picks Fiziev, citing his volume and diversity of strikes. He notes Riddell has more power but waits for the perfect shot, while Fiziev will already have landed kicks. Angelo is nervous about Riddell's power but sticks with Fiziev.

Inside the distance/decision no action spot (not specified which side)
"i'm going to stick with rafael fizzav i think his volume and his diversity and strikes will be the difference"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Brad Riddell

Big Brady picks Brad Riddell as a slight underdog, but with low confidence. He notes the fight is very even and should be a pick'em. He highlights Fiziev's tendency to slow down in later rounds, while Riddell maintains his pace. He also notes Riddell may mix in takedowns, though Fiziev has 100% takedown defense. Brady thinks Riddell's volume and cardio advantage could be key, but acknowledges Fiziev lands harder shots. He sides with Riddell slightly.

"i'm going to side with brad riddell here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Brad Riddell

Cody also picks Riddell, emphasizing his volume and technical striking. He points out that Fiziev's power shots led to him gassing out against Bobby Green, while Riddell has superior cardio and accuracy. Cody believes Riddell's takedown defense has improved and that he can win by outworking Fiziev, especially in the later rounds.

"gotta go with my guy brad riddell for sure and when we're talking about volume over power i think that's a great example"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Daniel Levi picks Rafael Fiziev by a close decision, acknowledging that Fiziev is explosive and accurate in the first two rounds but tends to slow down and get hit more in the third. He notes that Fiziev's output remains high throughout, but his defense deteriorates. He expects Fiziev to win the first two rounds and edge out a decision, though he admits it could go either way.

"I'm going to say rafael fazeev just barely gets past brad riddell"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Jacob picks Fiziev, noting his wild style may impress judges. He thinks Fiziev's aggression and volume will sway scorecards in a close fight. Jacob acknowledges it's a coin toss but leans Fiziev.

"i'm going to pick physio because he gets wild because i think that this this this fight is going to be so back and forth"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Brad Riddell

I like Riddell. He is the better boxer with better cardio and tends to get stronger as fights go on. Fiziev starts fast but slows down, and he has lost round three in every fight. Riddell will punish Fiziev's naked kicks and land cleaner shots. I expect Riddell to win a decision, and the decision prop at plus 190 is solid. A round three finish is also live.

Riddell by decision +190, Riddell round 3 +1700
"i like rideau redoubt decision is the spot but uh i do think the round three is live here as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Brad Riddell

Paul picks Riddell, citing his volume and technical kickboxing. He notes that Fiziev was out-struck by Bobby Green and faded in the third round, while Riddell has shown cardio and takedown defense improvements. Paul believes Riddell's familiarity with Fiziev from training together gives him an edge, and that Riddell can win by outworking him over three rounds.

"i gotta go with brad riddell again here i mean he's not failed me so far he's been you know one of these guys ever since he's come to the ufc i've backed him in every single fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
Brad Riddell

The MMA Guru picks Brad Riddell to win by 29-28 decision. He expects Fiziev to win the first round with kicks and takedown defense, but Riddell's body shots and takedown pressure will wear Fiziev down. Riddell will take over in the second and third, landing heavy body hooks and knees, winning the last two rounds.

"29-28 decision and i think this is going to be based on cardio again"
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo picks Rafael Fiziev, stating he is the better traditional striker and has shown he can wrestle and grapple, which is a key advantage. He notes that Ruffy is creative and powerful but was frozen by takedowns in his last fight. Fiziev has dog in him and made adjustments in his last fight. Angelo sees value at minus 115 given their resumes.

minus 115 seems like solid value
"Raphael Faziv is the pick and minus 115 given their resumes honestly seems like solid value here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady slightly leans toward Maurício Ruffy in a close striker's delight. He notes Fiziev has slowed down in the third round historically and didn't look great against Gachi after injury. Ruffy is a high-level striker with flashy spinning attacks and won't fade. Brady sees it as a 29-28 split decision either way, but expects Ruffy to take over late.

"I'm going to ever so slightly lean with Mauricio Hufi to win a very close decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Cody believes Fiziev is undervalued as a slight underdog. He criticizes Ruffy's reliance on flashy knockouts and low volume, noting that Ruffy was outstruck by James Llontop and only landed 3 significant strikes before his wheel kick KO of Bobby Green. He praises Fiziev's veteran savvy, volume, and ability to mix in wrestling, predicting a close decision win for Fiziev.

"Phys's he's got more volume by the numbers, but not like a runaway amount. The difference is if you want to go punch for punch with Raphael Phys, he lands eyecatching stuff, man."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Connor picks Fiziev, arguing that Ruffy is a smoke-and-mirrors fighter who is not a natural counter puncher and struggles when pressured. He notes that Fiziev is a superior technician with good takedown defense and that Ruffy's only path to victory is a lucky knockout. He also points out that Ruffy's wins are against slow or limited opponents, while Fiziev has fought elite competition.

Odds: Fiziev +105, Ruffy -125. Connor is surprised Fiziev is the underdog and notes the line is moving.
"I have to pick Fiziev. It's just, yeah, totally. There's a well fighting a superior technician who is super fast and who's only real weakness is a sort of like loss of cohesion late in the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Daniel Vreeland picks Ruffy as a dog, viewing the line as a market overcorrection. He believes Ruffy is a special striker who can match Fiziev's speed and technique, and that Fiziev has slowed down since his ACL surgery. Vreeland also notes that Ruffy has improved by training with Volkanovski and that Fiziev lacks a ground threat, making this a striking match where Ruffy can win.

"I took Mauricio Hui at plus 107 odds. I put one unit on it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

James picks Ruffy to win by KO, citing Ruffy's youth, distance control, and timing advantage. He believes Fiziev is on a downtrend and may be hesitant to engage. James notes Ruffy's training with Volkanovski and that Fiziev's wrestling won't be effective. He sees Ruffy's durability and power as key factors.

"I got Rua in this one, boys. I got Rua via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Fiziev is a nasty Muay Thai striker with good speed, combinations, and countering ability. He has improved his wrestling, as shown in his last fight where he landed four takedowns. Ruffy struggles with grapplers and was broken mentally by Saint Denis. Fiziev's durability is ironclad, and he should push the pace, counter effectively, and mix in takedowns. The host is baffled that Fiziev is the underdog and expects a finish in round two or three.

Fiziev by knockout round 2 or 3
"There it is. Raphael Fizz by knockout round two or round three."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ruffy is overvalued due to his flashy style and that Fiziev is a more complete fighter. He highlights Fiziev's ability to mix in takedowns and his experience against top competition. He expects Fiziev to win a close decision.

"I think Faze can hang with this guy on the feet. Ruffy if he wins will win like big huge exciting kind of moments but veteran savvy sneak in a takedown round and kind of just scrape by on probably a close decision phys for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, citing his superior striking, timing, and ability to chop at opponents with kicks. He notes Ruffy's weaknesses in fundamentals and predicts Fiziev will win by decision, possibly 29-28. He expects Ruffy to have a good third round but Fiziev's technical edge will prevail.

decision 29-28
"I'm going with FizzV, dude."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Zane picks Fiziev, emphasizing that Ruffy is limited strategically and relies on time and space to set up shots. He notes that Fiziev is a capable, controlled striker who can crowd Ruffy and take him down if needed. He also mentions that Ruffy's takedown defense is poor and that Fiziev's only losses are to elite fighters like Gaethje and Gamrot.

Odds: Fiziev +105, Ruffy -125. Zane notes that Fiziev was the underdog but the line is quickly shifting.
"I think that Fiziev will crowd him. He's just the more technical striker and the guys that have beat him are really, you know, it's Justin Gaethje who could take a war to him and then a leg injury against Matej Gamrot."