Career Averages - Edson Barboza
Career Averages - Esteban Ribovics
Edson Barboza - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
| Jalin Turner | 2 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 43 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
| Jalin Turner | 2 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 43 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 10 of 20 | 50% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jalin Turner | 39 of 66 | 59% | 29 of 55 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 53 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 10 of 20 | 50% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jalin Turner | 39 of 66 | 59% | 29 of 55 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 53 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 3 |
Angelo picks Jalin Turner despite concerns about his mental state after retiring following a couple of losses. He acknowledges Turner's advantages in height, range, and striking, and believes he is the better fighter at this stage. However, he questions whether Turner returned for the right reasons or just for a paycheck. Angelo ultimately trusts that Turner is focused and will win, but expresses hesitation.
Big Brady picks Jalin Turner, citing his dangerous striking and 100% finish rate. He believes Barboza is washed and lacks durability, and that Turner will keep the fight standing. He expects Turner to win by first-round knockout, though he questions Turner's mentality.
Cody picks Turner, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes that Turner has knocked down top lightweights and has a significant reach advantage. He believes Barboza is past his prime and that Turner will finish him early. He is confident despite Turner's recent loss and retirement talk.
Connor picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, citing Turner's fight-ending power and Barboza's age and recent decline. He notes that Barboza has looked hesitant and unable to pull the trigger, while Turner has more instantaneous power. However, Connor is concerned about Turner's mental state after his last performance and retirement talk.
Daniel is undecided, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He sees Turner's physical advantages and power but questions his heart and recent losses. Barboza's toughness and experience are assets, but his age (39) is a concern. He plans to make a pick on fight week.
Lucrative James thinks Jalin Turner will finish Edson Barboza early. He notes Barboza has looked washed and vulnerable in recent fights, often getting wobbled. He believes Turner's length, power, and viciousness will overwhelm Barboza. He acknowledges concerns about Turner's mental state after retirement but sees this as a favorable stylistic matchup.
The host believes Turner, returning from a short retirement, will be dialed in and take advantage of Barboza's deteriorating durability. He expects Turner to finish the fight within a round and a half.
Paul picks Turner, noting his size and power advantage. He believes Barboza is done and that Turner will overwhelm him. He mentions that Turner's only losses are to top competition and that he has the ability to finish early. He thinks Turner wins by TKO.
The Guru picks Jalin Turner to beat Edson Barboza, noting Barboza's decline and damage accumulation. He believes Turner's range and grappling will be key, and that Barboza cannot pull the trigger like before. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO finish.
Zane picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, noting that Turner has more instantaneous fight-ending power than Barboza. He acknowledges Barboza's age and recent performances where he couldn't pull the trigger. Zane is concerned about Turner's mental state but believes his power gives him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 71 of 120 | 59% | 73 of 122 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Drakkar Klose | 0 | 53 of 102 | 51% | 147 of 209 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 26 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
| Drakkar Klose | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 68 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Drakkar Klose | 0 | 25 of 44 | 56% | 50 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:40 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 29 of 46 | 63% | 29 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Drakkar Klose | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 29 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 71 of 120 | 59% | 26 of 64 | 32 of 38 | 13 of 18 | 57 of 105 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Drakkar Klose | 53 of 102 | 51% | 35 of 78 | 6 of 9 | 12 of 15 | 43 of 89 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 24 of 36 | 66% | 4 of 11 | 13 of 17 | 7 of 8 | 18 of 30 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Drakkar Klose | 15 of 29 | 51% | 8 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 13 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 18 of 38 | 47% | 7 of 22 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 4 | 14 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Drakkar Klose | 25 of 44 | 56% | 19 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 36 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 29 of 46 | 63% | 15 of 31 | 9 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 25 of 42 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Drakkar Klose | 13 of 29 | 44% | 8 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo acknowledges both fighters are older but notes Barboza's striking, speed, and experience against top competition. He thinks Klose could wrestle but hasn't seen enough to suggest Barboza is washed. He leans Barboza but is not confident enough to bet on him.
Big Brady picks Edson Barboza to win by second-round knockout. He notes Barboza is moving back up to lightweight, which should help his durability. He worries about Barboza's chin but thinks Klose doesn't have much power, with only two knockdowns in the UFC. He believes Barboza is the better striker and will knock out Klose, as Klose's path to victory is to sell out for grappling. He also mentions Klose's questionable durability and poor performance against Silva.
Connor also picks Barboza, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Klose has the right idea to pressure Barboza but lacks the tools to finish. He thinks Barboza's experience and ability to stand his ground will be key. He also mentions that Barboza has been working to counter pressure his entire career and sometimes wins without solving it.
The host considers Klose one of the most underrated lightweights. He expects Klose to avoid Barboza's early finishing attempts, clinch him against the cage, wear him down, and grind out a decision win on the mat.
The Guru picks Drakkar Klose to win by decision, 29-28. He cannot trust Edson Barboza at this point in his career, citing Barboza's long layoff, injuries, and move back up to lightweight. The Guru notes that Barboza took a lot of damage in his last fight against Lerone Murphy and that Klose will grapple and use his physicality. He believes Klose can execute a 'tepid version' of the recipe to beat Barboza and win a decision, though Barboza may have moments of hurting Klose.
Zane picks Barboza, noting that Klose is a pure pressure fighter but lacks the follow-through to beat Barboza. He thinks Barboza can meet Klose in the middle and outstrike him, or even if pressured, Barboza still has chances. He references Barboza's fight with Dariush as an example of Barboza winning despite being pushed around. He also notes that Klose is not a high-output pressure fighter and needs to clinch to be effective.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 79 of 242 | 32% | 79 of 242 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 220 of 364 | 60% | 259 of 410 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 34 of 62 | 54% | 38 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 41 of 75 | 54% | 56 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 11 of 42 | 26% | 11 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 48 of 79 | 60% | 52 of 86 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 | |
| 4 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 15 of 56 | 26% | 15 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 59 of 93 | 63% | 65 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 5 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 11 of 47 | 23% | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 48 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 79 of 242 | 32% | 38 of 189 | 15 of 21 | 26 of 32 | 77 of 239 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 220 of 364 | 60% | 172 of 308 | 27 of 34 | 21 of 22 | 205 of 344 | 13 of 17 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 25 of 53 | 47% | 14 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 12 | 24 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 34 of 62 | 54% | 26 of 52 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 17 of 44 | 38% | 5 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 41 of 75 | 54% | 36 of 69 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 37 of 70 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 11 of 42 | 26% | 5 of 32 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 48 of 79 | 60% | 40 of 70 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 43 of 73 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Lerone Murphy | 15 of 56 | 26% | 7 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 59 of 93 | 63% | 42 of 75 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 10 | 58 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Lerone Murphy | 11 of 47 | 23% | 7 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 38 of 55 | 69% | 28 of 42 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 35 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Edson Barboza due to his veteran savvy, well-rounded skills, and recent win over a similar young striker in Sodiq Yusuff. He compares Barboza to Charles Oliveira in terms of danger everywhere. However, he worries about Barboza's age (38) and chin. Lerone Murphy is undefeated with good footwork and power, but Barboza's experience and ability to mix in takedowns could be the difference.
Cody acknowledges the similarities to the Yusuff fight but notes Murphy doesn't gas like Yusuff; Murphy conserves energy and improves in later rounds. He points out Barboza is 38 and has taken a lot of damage, and speed declines with age. Cody is concerned about Murphy's close split decision over Gabriel Santos, but ultimately picks Murphy, citing Father Time as an ally.
Murphy has potential and mixes his game well, with solid cardio and grappling. Barboza is 38 and cutting to 145, which may affect his durability. Murphy can use clinch and takedowns to put Barboza in uncomfortable positions. However, this is Murphy's first five-round fight, and Barboza's experience is a factor. Expects Murphy to grind out a decision.
Paul sees this matchup similar to Barboza's win over Sodiq Yusuff, where Barboza's veteran savvy and cardio allowed him to take over late. He notes Murphy hasn't been tested in five rounds and lacks the volume that Yusuff had. Paul believes Barboza is a tough out for prospects without stout wrestling, and Murphy's wrestling isn't elite enough to neutralize Barboza's striking.
The MMA Guru picks Edson Barboza to win by body kick TKO in round three or four over Lerone Murphy. He argues that Murphy is less powerful and less dangerous than Sadik Yusuf, who Barboza beat. He notes Murphy's tendency to edge by wins and lack of a finishing move, while Barboza has experience in main events and the cardio to break Murphy down. He expects Barboza's speed and technique to prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 1 | 178 of 351 | 50% | 206 of 397 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:56 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 1 | 164 of 324 | 50% | 178 of 347 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 1 | 42 of 80 | 52% | 55 of 103 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:15 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 42 of 79 | 53% | 43 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 33 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 29 of 58 | 50% | 29 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 1 | 32 of 68 | 47% | 42 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 4 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 35 of 79 | 44% | 39 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 0 | 47 of 90 | 52% | 48 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 5 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 40 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 0 | 41 of 76 | 53% | 41 of 77 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 178 of 351 | 50% | 126 of 284 | 14 of 20 | 38 of 47 | 148 of 311 | 15 of 18 | 15 of 22 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 164 of 324 | 50% | 71 of 204 | 89 of 112 | 4 of 8 | 134 of 290 | 25 of 27 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 42 of 80 | 52% | 39 of 77 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 54 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 22 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 13 of 25 | 52% | 8 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 42 of 79 | 53% | 24 of 56 | 3 of 6 | 15 of 17 | 34 of 69 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 31 of 65 | 47% | 7 of 31 | 23 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 25 of 57 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 29 of 58 | 50% | 17 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 29 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 32 of 68 | 47% | 14 of 44 | 16 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 4 | Edson Barboza | 35 of 79 | 44% | 24 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 13 | 35 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 47 of 90 | 52% | 24 of 63 | 22 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 42 of 85 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Edson Barboza | 30 of 55 | 54% | 22 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 27 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 41 of 76 | 53% | 18 of 47 | 23 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 63 | 13 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo sees this as a razor-thin striking match where youth vs experience is the key factor. He believes Sodiq's speed and youth will give him a slight edge over the 37-year-old Barboza, who is still technical but may have slowed. He notes that if it were a well-rounded MMA fight he'd lean experience, but as a striking match he favors the younger fighter. He plans to just watch rather than bet, calling it even money.
Big Brady picks Sodiq Yusuff to win by KO in the third round. He notes that Edson Barboza is 37 years old and cutting to featherweight, which is taxing. He worries about Barboza's durability and cardio in a five-round fight, while Yusuff is younger and has power. He expects Yusuff to finish late as Barboza fades.
Cody picks Barboza, emphasizing his consistent high-level competition and ability to still perform at an elite level. He highlights Barboza's leg kicks, left hook, and durability, noting that he has never slowed down despite many wars. Cody questions Yusuff's durability and wrestling ability to get Barboza down, and believes Barboza's experience and power will prevail.
The host picks Sodiq Yusuff but is hesitant due to the long layoff and herniated disc issues. He notes Yusuff's power and patience, expecting him to land a big shot as Barboza slows down with age. However, he dislikes the minus 170-180 price and prefers to pass on betting. He predicts Yusuff by knockout.
Paul picks Barboza as the underdog, citing his elite striking, durability, and experience against top competition. He notes Barboza's ability to land big shots and his consistent performance despite age. Paul is concerned about Yusuff's durability and lack of high-level wins, and believes Barboza's volume and power will be too much.
The MMA Guru leans towards Edson Barboza over Sodiq Yusuff, calling it a close 50/50 fight. He cites Barboza's momentum, size advantage (4-inch reach, taller), and experience in main events. He questions Yusuff's chin, noting he got wobbled by Arnold Allen, and his long layoff due to spinal surgery. He also thinks Yusuff's win over Alex Caceres was mostly low kicks, which won't work against Barboza. However, he expresses frustration that underdogs often win in nonsensical ways, showing low confidence.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 1 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 1 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 21 of 33 | 63% | 13 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 19 of 42 | 45% | 16 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 21 of 33 | 63% | 13 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 19 of 42 | 45% | 16 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo, but emphasizes he needs to wrestle to win. He notes Barboza is the more technical striker and that Quarantillo cannot let Barboza settle into a striking pace. He references Barboza's win over Shane Burgos as a cautionary tale. He is not betting yet, calling Barboza 'super live'.
Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by late second-round knockout. He notes Barboza's age (37) and recent decline, while Quarantillo is durable and has high volume and pressure. He expects Barboza to look good early but fade, allowing Quarantillo to drown him with pace and power. He is not worried about Barboza's early knockout power.
Cody sees this as a classic case of Barboza starting hot and Quarantillo wearing him down. He notes Quarantillo's takedown accuracy is low (24%) but he shoots multiple times, and his superior cardio and ground game should take over in rounds 2 and 3. However, he's not confident pre-fight and prefers to bet Quarantillo live after round 1.
Connor picks Barboza, arguing that Quarantillo is too slow and too much of a slow starter to implement the pressure needed to beat Barboza. He notes that Barboza's early damage accumulation (body kicks, leg kicks) will prevent Quarantillo from building into the fight. Connor compares Quarantillo unfavorably to Shane Burgos, whom Barboza destroyed, and believes Barboza's thudding shots will land on Quarantillo's entire body in the first round.
Quarantillo's cardio and forward pressure will be the difference. Barboza has takedown defense issues and fades late. Quarantillo can survive early striking onslaughts and take over in later rounds with takedowns and ground-and-pound. Expect a finish in round 3 as Quarantillo's pace breaks Barboza.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo is hittable early but wears opponents down. He highlights Barboza's layoff and age (37) but acknowledges Barboza's first-round explosiveness. He thinks Quarantillo's wrestling may not be as good as previous Barboza opponents, but his volume and durability should carry him.
The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his well-rounded game, volume striking (7.88 strikes per minute), and grappling. He believes Quarantillo will close the distance, make it a war, and potentially finish Barboza, who is 37 and cutting to featherweight. He notes Barboza's power and experience but thinks Quarantillo's freshness and pressure will be key.
Zane picks Quarantillo, believing his relentless pressure and willingness to walk through fire will overwhelm Barboza. He notes that Barboza has historically struggled against pressure fighters who stay on him, and Quarantillo's madman mentality and one-size-fits-all aggression should be effective. Zane acknowledges Quarantillo is slower and less technical than previous Barboza opponents but thinks his psychological edge and constant forward movement will carry the day.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Edson Barboza | 1 | 34 of 47 | 72% | 182 of 209 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 11:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 1 | 14 of 18 | 77% | 47 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 | |
| 2 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 78 of 83 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:41 | |
| 3 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 2 of 14 | 14% | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 57 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | 16 of 37 | 43% | 3 of 17 | 6 of 12 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Edson Barboza | 34 of 47 | 72% | 28 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 29 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Mitchell | 11 of 19 | 57% | 2 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 14 of 18 | 77% | 10 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 | |
| 2 | Bryce Mitchell | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 | |
| 3 | Bryce Mitchell | 2 of 14 | 14% | 1 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Edson Barboza | 13 of 20 | 65% | 12 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 15 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
One will rarely ever find a more perfect example of a striker vs. grappler battle, when the highlight-reel aficionado Barboza (22-10, 16-10 UFC) squares off with unbeaten submission artist Mitchell (14-0, 5-0 UFC). Referee Mark Smith is on the call for this intriguing matchup at 145 pounds, and the men do not bothering to touch ‘em up before engaging. Mitchell throws a low kick, and Barboza is right there to return fire with a much heavier kick. Barboza attacks with another leg kick, and he backs away when Mitchell walks him down. Barboza sits down an inside leg kick, and just a few strikes in, Mitchell’s lead leg is already changing color. Mitchell gives chase, walking through another low kick, and he circles away as Mitchell tries to corner him. Mitchell aims a single kick to the body, and Barboza strings together a couple punches and a thudding low kick. Mitchell tries to grab Barboza but is out of range. Barboza scoots out of the way, and as he backs off, he gets cracked by a sudden right hand that sets him down. Barboza shakes off the cobwebs as “Thug Nasty” bears down on him, and he scoops up his foe’s legs and sets him down to the mat. In Barboza’s guard, Mitchell softens up the body with short punches, and he postures up to stack Barboza up when Barboza looks to open his guard and get offensive with it. From very close range, Mitchell thumps down a pair of elbows, and he uses effective top pressure to keep Barboza stuck with his neck on the wall and his back on the mat. Body to head goes Mitchell as he works Barboza over with light but constant strikes. Barboza tightens his guard, only to find an elbow zooming at his face, and he takes it flush and keeps absorbing punishment from below. Mitchell looks to sit up and drop down heavier blows, and as he does, the Brazilian kicks off and explodes back to his feet. Keeping a safe range, and hopping out of the way of a takedown entry from Mitchell, Barboza jumps around and scores a big leg kick. Missing with a spinning back kick, Barboza then chases after his man and gets off a right hand right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Round 2
The featherweights are quick to get after it to start the second stanza, and Barboza blasts Mitchell’s inside calf. Although he gets a couple off, he leaves his leg out a little too long and has it snagged mid-air. From there, Mitchell hits a quick double, setting the Brazilian flat on his back on the open mat. Barboza keeps his guard tightly closed, and Mitchell does not mind, as he racks up control time and has his ground strike totals add up. Mitchell sits up every so often to elbow Barboza in the face, and then flattens him back down and punches him in the side. One such elbow slashes Barboza’s left eyebrow open, and it begins to bleed instantly. Barboza scoots his way to the fence, but Mitchell will not let him up. Smith calls for them to work, and Mitchell obliges with a powerful elbow from on top. Barboza tries to push off and scramble, but the smothering top control of the Arkansan has him nullifying Barboza. When Mitchell attempts to pass to mount, Barboza is able to buck him of momentarily. Barboza looks to stand up with the fence behind him, and as he does, Mitchell drags him right back down from behind. Barboza recovers position to get his guard back, but “Thug Nasty” is nasty with his ground-and-pound as he batters Barboza and slides over to three-quarter mount. Mitchell clubs Barboza with several right hands to the bloodied eye, and a small pool of crimson forms beneath Barboza’s head. Mitchell settles for half guard, where he pounds on Barboza until the last five seconds of the round. Barboza manages to kick Mitchell off again, and Mitchell lords over him until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Round 3
The last round begins as Barboza appears to have a fire lit under his backside from his corner. Instead of throwing kicks, Barboza starts swinging heavy hands. Mitchell goes up high with a kick, and his foot bumps into Barboza’s shoulder and Mitchell falls to his back. Barboza does not oblige climbing into his guard, and he lets Mitchell stand up so he can slug it out with him. Barboza ducks a jumping switch kick, and he throws a right hand that Mitchell ducks perfectly. “Thug Nasty” nails a double, putting Barboza down to the canvas far away from the cage wall. Barboza closes up the guard, and Mitchell is happy as a clam in this position as this keeps him safe from any power strikes that come at him. In an effort to change things up, Barboza sets up a triangle choke from his high guard, and Mitchell lifts him in the air and slams him in the mat to break the leg grip. Mitchell comfortably lowers himself back in the guard, with sporadic punches on the bloody eye of his foe, until he stands up and stacks Barboza up. Barboza tries to kick off the hips, but he does not have the power to get Mitchell off of him any longer. Barboza scrambles and turns to set up a leg lock, but when this fails, Mitchell secures three-quarter mount with Barboza on his side. Mitchell begins to let a series of left hands go as Barboza cannot block his face, so the Brazilian twists and yanks his arm free but continues to get pounded by Mitchell. “Thug Nasty” starts to make things nasty again as he moves to half guard and starts raining down elbows. A few more strikes from the undefeated fighter put a stamp in this performance, and he will likely keep that 0 and put himself in line for big opportunities in the near future.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (30-26 Mitchell)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (30-26 Mitchell)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)
The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Edson Barboza via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-27)
Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell but admits he doesn't love the pick and will root for Barboza. He notes that Mitchell's only path is takedowns and control, and that Barboza has 78% takedown defense. However, he compares it to Khabib vs Barboza where Khabib had success with relentless takedowns. He thinks Mitchell's grappling is good enough to win a decision.
Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell to win, likely by submission in the third round. He notes that Mitchell's relentless takedown game and top control will be key, as Barboza has historically struggled against wrestlers like Khabib and Kevin Lee. Brady acknowledges Barboza's striking advantage but believes Mitchell will neutralize it by taking him down repeatedly. He mentions that Barboza is 36 and may not keep up with Mitchell's pace. Brady also notes that Mitchell has shown improvement in his grappling, as seen in his wins over Andre Fili and Charles Rosa.
Cody believes Mitchell has the exact style that causes Barboza problems: relentless pressure, wrestling, and grinding. He references the Amir Albazi fight as a template for how to beat Barboza by taking him down and controlling him. Cody acknowledges the striking disparity but trusts Mitchell's wrestling and strength to get the takedowns and avoid Barboza's power.
Daniel Levi is confident in Bryce Mitchell, citing his relentless takedown style. He argues that Mitchell will shoot takedowns from the opening bell and keep shooting until he gets them down, unlike Makwan Amirkhani who backed up. He references Kevin Lee's blueprint of walking Barboza down and taking him down, and notes that Barboza struggled to get back up. He believes Mitchell's composure in the Felder fight (where he was reversed but stayed calm) bodes well. He predicts Mitchell will dominate via ground and pound and win a decision, possibly a submission.
Barboza's striking, especially his leg kicks and power, is something Mitchell hasn't dealt with. Mitchell's path to victory is grappling, but Barboza has solid takedown defense and submission defense. The bigger cage helps Barboza maintain distance. Barboza can win by decision or even knockout if Mitchell gets reckless. The later the fight goes, the more Mitchell might land takedowns, but Barboza's experience should carry him.
Paul is skeptical of Mitchell's competition, noting he has fought low-level opponents and struggled against the one wrestler he faced (Bobby Moffitt). He argues Barboza has fought elite competition and has underrated takedown defense, citing Khabib going 4-for-13. Paul sees this as a coin flip and prefers the plus money on Barboza, believing Mitchell could get lit up if he can't secure takedowns.
The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell over Edson Barboza, trusting Mitchell's relentless grappling and tough chin. He acknowledges Barboza's KO power and speed, predicting Mitchell may get dropped early but will wear on Barboza with takedowns and pressure. He references Barboza's cardio issues and Mitchell's ability to set up takedowns with strikes. He predicts a third-round arm triangle submission after taking mount.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giga Chikadze | 0 | 33 of 95 | 34% | 33 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 2 | 60 of 117 | 51% | 70 of 128 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giga Chikadze | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Giga Chikadze | 0 | 19 of 56 | 33% | 19 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Giga Chikadze | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 2 | 21 of 27 | 77% | 31 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giga Chikadze | 33 of 95 | 34% | 15 of 70 | 10 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 33 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 60 of 117 | 51% | 31 of 80 | 16 of 22 | 13 of 15 | 56 of 113 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giga Chikadze | 10 of 26 | 38% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 17 of 43 | 39% | 6 of 27 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Giga Chikadze | 19 of 56 | 33% | 8 of 41 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 19 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 22 of 47 | 46% | 10 of 33 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Giga Chikadze | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 21 of 27 | 77% | 15 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The moment we’ve all been waiting for has arrived, with respect to those participating on the 29th season of TUF. Two powerful, flashy strikers with eerily similar striking stats toe the line when Barboza (22-9, 16-9 UFC) faces Chikadze (13-2, 6-0 UFC). For Barboza, he can cement his place as a contender at featherweight; for Chikadze, he can announce himself to the world as a legitimate top-tier 145er. Referee Jason Herzog is holding down the fort for this one, and gloves are not touched before they are traded heavily and in high intensity. The first strike of the match comes from Chikadze, who lands a leg kick. Barboza returns fire with his own kick, and the featherweights are coiled and ready to strike. Barboza starts to walk Chikadze down, backing him up into the fence, and he is forced to try to check a quick leg kick. Barboza checks a body kick with a high knee, but an inside chopping kick lands. When Barboza fires off a leg kick, it gets checked as well. Chikadze goes high with a kick that brushes past Barboza’s head, and the Brazilian looks surprised as it zooms at him. Chikadze leaps in the air with a check flying knee, and Barboza just sees it coming in time to avoid it. When Barboza has a calf kick checked, he fires off another that does not get blocked. Barboza looks to feint his way in and he blocks a high kick and checks a body kick with his quick reflexes. Barboza wings an overhand left, and Chikadze is barely able to get out of the way lest it lop his head off. Chikadze spins with a kick to the body, and Barboza marches through it and lands a few punches. Barboza trips Chikadze on the way when Chikadze tries to press the action, and he stands back defiantly as Chikadze aims a flying knee. When Barboza connects with a leg kick, Chikadze points at his leg and then fires off two high kicks. Chikadze drills the body with a kick, and he might have Barboza smarting as Barboza chomps down on his mouthpiece and throws winging punches. Chikadze strides after him confidently, landing a few and evading the counters. Chikadze rips the body with a kick, and he targets the liver and points at Barboza. A high kick and an axe kick attempt from the Georgian conclude the kick-heavy round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chikadze
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chikadze
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chikadze
Round 2
The featherweights trade calf kicks initially, and Barboza is the one to try to throw hands as he swings a right hand. He times a Chikadze flying knee to kick him up the body, and he stands tall to score when Chikadze lands. Chikadze circles around the outer edge of the fence to chop at the Brazilian with kicks, and Barboza comes up short when trying to give chase. Chikadze connects with a left hand and a liver kick, and Barboza gives chase as he absorbs a stunning right hand. Barboza shakes it off and keeps pressuring Chikadze, where he lands a trio of punches on the way in. Chikadze lets loose a high kick and a liver kick in rapid succession, and the kick to the side keeps finding its home. Barboza scores a calf kick that makes the Georgian changes stances, and Chikadze whips up a high kick with his lead leg. Barboza rips the body with a right hand, and he checks the vaunted “Giga kick” with a high knee block. The Brazilian continues his assault on the body with big hooks and kicks, and Chikadze backs off right into an overhand right. Barboza plods forward as Chikadze appears to be slowing to a degree, allowing him to cut Chikadze off and set up strikes. Barboza nails the lead leg with a heavy kick, and Chikadze tries to return fire with an axe kick but he gets jabbed for his effort. Chikadze gets off a pair of punches as Barboza walks him down like a Brazilian Terminator, and Barboza keeps on drilling punches to the body. Chikadze spams a few axe kicks that hit nothing but his foe’s guard, and Barboza stabs his toes to the midsection. Barboza sweeps the leg, and Chikadze comes back at him with a single leg kick before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barboza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barboza
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barboza
Round 3
Barboza takes the center of the cage and doubles up on a jab, and Chikadze is ready to fire back but misses the mark when Barboza ducks. Barboza sticks out a few more jabs as Chikadze backs away, and the Georgian scores a kick to the knee when Barboza tries to come at him. Chikadze blasts Barboza with a huge right hand, and Barboza is suddenly on the ropes as Chikadze walks him down to try to do damage. Barboza’s eye is busted up, and Chikadze charges with a barrage of punches. A few right hands knock Barboza back, and Barboza is in trouble and falls over to the ground. Chikadze looks to finish the job as he lands a few punches from on top, and Barboza holds on tight to clear the cobwebs. Barboza looks for a heel hook from his back as he is hurt badly, and when he sits up in it, the Georgian latches on to an anaconda choke out of nowhere. Barboza walks off the cage to break the grip of the choke, and he powers his way to his knees and then back to his feet.
Barboza is still on baby deer legs when he gets back up, and Chikadze takes note this and drops the hammer with a trio of punches that sends Barboza crashing back down to the canvas. Herzog has seen enough, sensing that Barboza may be out even if he is able to amble back to his feet.
“Ninja” successfully puts himself on the map with a wild performance over a perennial contender, and he thanks his opponent for the opportunity and the tough challenge. In his post-fight interview, Chikadze says he would be glad to fill in if a competitor in the featherweight title fight falls through, but if not, that there is a certain Hawaiian in his sights – Max Holloway. Should that striker’s delight come to fruition, we will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Giga Chikadze def. Edson Barboza R3 1:44 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Barboza, citing his leg kicks as the difference, veteran savvy, and more tools (jiu-jitsu, experience). He notes Chikadze is the future but hasn't faced leg kicks. He has Barboza in his DraftKings lineup at 8200 and calls the fight razor thin.
Cody picks Barboza but is hesitant, noting Barboza's age (35) and the risk that Giga could have a breakout performance. He values Barboza's experience and durability, having faced top competition, while Giga's resume is softer. Cody is worried about Giga's cardio after seeing him slow in round three against Jamall Emmers, and thinks Barboza's volume and wrestling advantage could be key if he survives the early danger. He already bet Barboza at -110 and says he won't have high investment.
Jacob picks Chikadze, calling him an assassin who is on another level. He notes Chikadze is never in trouble and controls distance. He got Chikadze at +100 and has him in his lineup for five rounds, expecting a war. He also placed a half-unit bet on Chikadze in the third round.
Lock leans slightly to Barboza, citing his volume and pace advantage over Giga. He believes Barboza's durability at 145 has held up and that Giga's cardio issues will be exposed in a five-round fight. Lock expects Barboza to get a finish in the later rounds, specifically liking the under 4.5 rounds and Barboza by KO at +270. He notes Giga's power is dangerous early but thinks Barboza's experience and activity will be the difference.
Paul picks Barboza, citing Barboza's higher striking volume and Giga's cardio issues seen in the Emmers fight. He notes Barboza's wrestling advantage and thinks if Barboza gets through the first two rounds, he'll be even stronger. Paul is scared away from Giga by his third-round fade against Emmers. He also mentions the line moving toward Barboza but remains confident.
The Guru picks Edson Barboza over Giga Chikadze, citing Barboza's superior striking, experience in main events, and proven cardio at featherweight. He notes that Chikadze has close split decisions against Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis, which are red flags. The Guru expects Barboza to chop Chikadze's legs with calf kicks and win a decision, possibly 4 rounds to 1. He also mentions Barboza's takedown option as a potential factor.
Esteban Ribovics - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 38 of 56 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 6:50 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 4 of 21 | 19% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 24 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 14 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 34 | 52% | 15 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 16 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 4 of 21 | 19% | 2 of 15 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 14 of 21 | 66% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 1 of 12 | 8% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, highlighting his superior striking, power, and scrambling ability. He notes Gamrot's chinny nature and lack of finishing threat, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere. He suggests a plus 3.5 prop bet if afraid of the moneyline, expecting Ribovics to not get finished or shut out.
Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Gamrot to get takedowns but Ribovics to get back up and outland him on the feet with volume and power. He compares it to the Gamrot-Turner fight where Turner did more damage. He thinks it goes to a split decision and takes the dog Ribovics, trusting the judges to score damage over control.
Cody picks Ribovics as an underdog, citing his high volume, power, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Ribovics can outwork Gamrot on the feet and win a decision.
Connor picks Gamrot because of his superior takedown ability, which gives him a 'get out of jail free card' whenever Ribovics makes him uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that Ribovics struggles against wrestlers, as seen in the Loic Rajabov fight where he was taken down 11 times. He acknowledges Gamrot's unreliability but trusts his wrestling to control the fight.
Daniel thinks Gamrot is on the decline and his style has been figured out. He believes Ribovics has improved his takedown defense and will outwork Gamrot on the feet.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics as a risky underdog, believing that Gamrot is on the decline and that Ribovics' cardio and pressure can exploit Gamrot's slowing reflexes and compromised chin. He notes that Ribovics gets back up from takedowns and lands damage, but acknowledges Gamrot is the better fighter on paper.
The host finds this fight very difficult to bet pre-fight due to Ribovics' unknown takedown defense improvement since his loss to Radzhabov. He notes Gamrot's cardio issues and Ribovics' cardio advantage, making it risky to bet either side. He suggests the most likely outcome is Gamrot winning the first two rounds and coasting to a 29-28 decision, but also sees a path for Ribovics if his takedown defense has improved.
James picks the underdog Ribovics, citing Gamrot's recent losses and potential decline, and Ribovics' belief in himself. He sees it as a close fight where Ribovics could win a decision.
Gamrot's grappling is a level above what Ribovics has faced. Ribovics has improved takedown defense but Gamrot's chain wrestling is relentless. However, Ribovics has a striking edge and could steal rounds if he defends takedowns. Gamrot's experience and pressure should wear Ribovics down over three rounds. It's a sketchy matchup but Gamrot's grappling gives him the edge.
Paul picks Gamrot, believing his wrestling and control will be enough to win rounds. He is not very confident and acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense improvement.
The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Ribovics is explosive, high-volume, and has good takedown defense. He notes Gamrot gets hurt on the feet and struggled with Dan Hooker's scrambles. He predicts Ribovics will drop Gamrot and win a decision, similar to the Hooker fight.
Zane picks Gamrot, agreeing that his takedown ability is the key. He notes that Ribovics is not the kind of guy UFC matches against wrestlers, and his last fight against a wrestler (Rajabov) saw him taken down 11 times. He acknowledges that Gamrot is unreliable but believes his wrestling will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 118 of 250 | 47% | 123 of 256 | 0 of 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elves Brener | 0 | 122 of 281 | 43% | 123 of 284 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 36 of 68 | 52% | 37 of 69 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elves Brener | 0 | 39 of 95 | 41% | 40 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 48 of 88 | 54% | 51 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elves Brener | 0 | 34 of 84 | 40% | 34 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 34 of 94 | 36% | 35 of 95 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elves Brener | 0 | 49 of 102 | 48% | 49 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 118 of 250 | 47% | 88 of 211 | 15 of 23 | 15 of 16 | 118 of 248 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Elves Brener | 122 of 281 | 43% | 86 of 233 | 23 of 29 | 13 of 19 | 114 of 268 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 36 of 68 | 52% | 21 of 51 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 9 | 36 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Elves Brener | 39 of 95 | 41% | 29 of 83 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 31 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 48 of 88 | 54% | 39 of 76 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 48 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Elves Brener | 34 of 84 | 40% | 21 of 65 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 9 | 34 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 34 of 94 | 36% | 28 of 84 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 34 of 92 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Elves Brener | 49 of 102 | 48% | 36 of 85 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 49 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Connor sees Ribovics as a durable, violent striker who enjoys pocket exchanges, which neutralizes Brener's main weapon. He notes Ribovics has technical skills and a camp that can improve him, while Brener's reckless style leaves him open to counters. Connor believes Brener's game is unsustainable and that Ribovics will land more significant shots.
Lucrative James views Ribovics as the more educated striker with a diverse arsenal, including body shots. He notes Brener's durability may be declining, as he was hurt in recent fights by Joel Alvarez and Oro. He acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense is a weakness but doubts Brener has the grappling skill to exploit it for three rounds. He predicts Ribovics will land heavy shots and finish inside the distance, possibly by knockout or TKO.
Zane agrees Ribovics is the pick, highlighting that Brenner's game relies on opponents not enjoying the fight as much as he does. Ribovics clearly enjoys brawling, which takes away Brenner's advantage. Zane notes Brenner's poor distance control and tendency to get hit, while Ribovics is a more technical and durable striker.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasrat Haqparast | 0 | 135 of 273 | 49% | 135 of 273 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 147 of 433 | 33% | 149 of 436 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasrat Haqparast | 0 | 33 of 64 | 51% | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 36 of 107 | 33% | 36 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nasrat Haqparast | 0 | 49 of 104 | 47% | 49 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 62 of 183 | 33% | 62 of 183 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nasrat Haqparast | 0 | 53 of 105 | 50% | 53 of 105 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 49 of 143 | 34% | 51 of 146 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasrat Haqparast | 135 of 273 | 49% | 103 of 233 | 26 of 34 | 6 of 6 | 134 of 272 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 147 of 433 | 33% | 120 of 395 | 17 of 27 | 10 of 11 | 147 of 433 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasrat Haqparast | 33 of 64 | 51% | 21 of 50 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 36 of 107 | 33% | 28 of 94 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 36 of 107 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nasrat Haqparast | 49 of 104 | 47% | 39 of 91 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 49 of 104 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 62 of 183 | 33% | 53 of 170 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 62 of 183 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nasrat Haqparast | 53 of 105 | 50% | 43 of 92 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 52 of 104 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 49 of 143 | 34% | 39 of 131 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 49 of 143 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics, highlighting his sneaky power, tight striking, and ability to mix in takedowns and BJJ. He notes that Nasrat Haqparast is not very dangerous and tends to win close decisions, but believes Ribovics can win more decisively. He also mentions that Vegas judges don't favor Nasrat, which could help Ribovics.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics, citing his volume, durability, and power. He notes Nasrat Haqparast is not a wrestler and will stand and trade, which favors Ribovics. He predicts Ribovics will break Haqparast and knock him out in the second round.
Connor picks Ribovics as a fun flyer, noting that Ribovics is a pocket combination puncher who will force exchanges and get hit but also land. He mentions that Haqparast has lost to similar pressure fighters like Dober and that Ribovics has the power to hurt him. Connor admits it's a competitive fight but goes with Ribovics for the upset.
The host acknowledges the public is high on Ribovics after his Fight of the Year candidate, but believes they are overlooking Haqparast's experience and strength of schedule. He expects Haqparast's combination striking to overcome the favorite and win a decision.
The Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Nasrat Haqparast. He views Haqparast as a simple straight-punch fighter without enough power, while Ribovics is more dynamic with better footwork, kicks, and versatility. He notes Ribovics' fight of the year contender and predicts a close 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Haqparast, banking on his speed and experience in close fights. He notes that Haqparast rarely loses to opponents he is faster than, and Ribovics is hittable and will force exchanges. Zane acknowledges that Haqparast can be out-thought but believes his athleticism will carry him in a brawl.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 1 | 121 of 308 | 39% | 121 of 308 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 156 of 345 | 45% | 156 of 345 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 27 of 76 | 35% | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 24 of 65 | 36% | 24 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 51 of 116 | 43% | 51 of 116 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 40 of 89 | 44% | 40 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 1 | 43 of 116 | 37% | 43 of 116 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 92 of 191 | 48% | 92 of 191 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 121 of 308 | 39% | 83 of 255 | 33 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 117 of 304 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 156 of 345 | 45% | 103 of 276 | 32 of 48 | 21 of 21 | 154 of 342 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 27 of 76 | 35% | 13 of 59 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 24 of 65 | 36% | 7 of 41 | 9 of 16 | 8 of 8 | 24 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 51 of 116 | 43% | 33 of 93 | 16 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 50 of 115 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 40 of 89 | 44% | 23 of 68 | 9 of 13 | 8 of 8 | 40 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 43 of 116 | 37% | 37 of 103 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 114 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 92 of 191 | 48% | 73 of 167 | 14 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 90 of 188 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, surprised he is not the favorite. He notes Ribovics is well-rounded with sneaky power, tight strikes, good takedowns, and solid BJJ. He sees this as a close fight possibly going to split decision, so he placed a quarter unit on Ribovics moneyline at +180 and plans to put another quarter on the plus 3.5 spread to cover a close decision loss. He is confident in the dog pick.
Big Brady likes Zellhuber due to an 8-inch reach advantage and superior striking technique. He notes Ribovics has no takedown defense, so Zellhuber can mix in takedowns if needed. He expects a competitive fight but Zellhuber to win a decision.
Daniel leans with Daniel Zellhuber, praising his 8-inch reach advantage, kickboxing, and 94% takedown defense. He sees Zellhuber as a future top-15 fighter but respects Ribovics' dangerous hands and get-up game. He is not fully convinced the line is right but goes with Zellhuber.
Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Zellhuber because he likes his volume and ability to put pressure on opponents. He notes Zellhuber's only loss was to Trey Ogden, who grinded him out, but Ribovics is a power puncher who will let his hands fly, which plays into Zellhuber's strengths. He compares it to the Bahamondes vs Torres fight, favoring the taller, sharper striker.
Jeff Fox picks Daniel Zellhuber as well, stating he is slightly better everywhere. He acknowledges the odds aren't favorable but notes he is ignoring size and youth this time, having turned over a new leaf.
The transcript does not discuss this fight.
Ribovics packs power but Zellhuber is very calm, technical, and disciplined with his striking approach. Expects Zellhuber to utilize his footwork and touch up Ribovics from distance, winning on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber. He highlights Zellhuber's 8-inch reach advantage and his ability to keep distance and pick shots. He notes Ribovics has a 69-inch reach which is flyweight-level, and at 5'10" that's a disadvantage. He trusts Zellhuber's game plan under coach Eric Nicksick and his recent back-to-back good performances.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ribovics (-175), McKinney (+145)
Round 1
The matchmakers made sure at least one fight on the billing would practically promise bonkers action for as long as it lasts, and this is that bout. In 21 pro outings, McKinney (15-6, 5-3 UFC) has never heard the final bell, while Ribovics (12-1, 1-1 UFC) has gone the distance twice after 13 appearances. Referee Gary Copeland has donned his hard hat for what could be a wild and crazy first round, although it starts with a calm glove touch. McKinney immediately opens up with a one-two, and he takes a low kick and throws back hard. Ribovics sits down on a power punch, and he absorbs a flush combination and catches McKinney with a knee when “T. Wrecks” bends over. McKinney connects with a right hand, and
Ribovics tosses out a few punches, reaches with a right hand and sets up one of the most beautiful head kicks one can muster as it collides square into McKinney’s head. McKinney is out cold as soon as the shin makes contact, and he collapses lifelessly to his seat as his back bounces into the fence behind him.
Blood leaks out of his nose as he sits there, totally unconscious. Ribovics knows that he does not need to do anything else today, and he proudly walks away as Copeland tends to the snoozing lightweight. Wow, what a finish! “Knockout of the Year” has one more contender in an already crowded list with that absolute gem, and Ribovics has officially announced himself to the lightweight division in a massive way.
The Official Result
Esteban Ribovics def. Terrance McKinney R1 0:37 via KO (Head Kick)
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.
Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.
The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.
Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 56 of 107 | 52% | 86 of 147 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 1 | 0 | 6:20 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 115 of 202 | 56% | 135 of 224 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 29 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:37 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 36 of 68 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 65 of 118 | 55% | 71 of 126 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 21 of 40 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 49 of 82 | 59% | 61 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 56 of 107 | 52% | 36 of 84 | 12 of 15 | 8 of 8 | 51 of 101 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 115 of 202 | 56% | 94 of 177 | 17 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 92 of 172 | 10 of 13 | 13 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 35 of 67 | 52% | 20 of 50 | 9 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 31 of 62 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 65 of 118 | 55% | 58 of 109 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 55 of 102 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 10 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 19 of 38 | 50% | 14 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 49 of 82 | 59% | 36 of 68 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 68 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 7 |
Angelo is confident in Ribovics, calling him the better striker with sneaky power and solid takedowns. He notes Kirk's tendency to fade, keep his hands low, and be hittable. He thinks Kirk's patience and year-long layoff will work against him. He placed a full unit bet at -200 and sees value even at that price.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Ribovics has heavy power and has knocked out opponents brutally, but his takedown defense is terrible. He believes Kirk is a good grappler who doesn't use his grappling enough, and if Kirk tries to strike, he will get knocked out. He expects Kirk to get tired if he wrestles, and Ribovics will take over and finish him in the second or third round.
Cody picks Ribovics, noting his power and improved wrestling. He thinks Kirk's wrestling is overrated and he has not improved. He mentions Ribovics showed good cardio and get-up ability against a strong wrestler. He grabbed Ribovics at -139.
Connor picks Ribovics because Kirk is a fighter who can be dominated in any area where his opponent is better. Ribovics is a better striker and more deliberate, and he showed credible resistance against pressure in his fight with Rongzhu. Kirk's flashy style doesn't hold up against solid fundamentals.
Daniel Levi picks Ribovics, citing his dog mentality, knockout power, and ability to take over as the fight progresses. He notes that Kirk has cardio issues and has been broken in past fights, and that Ribovics showed resilience in his UFC debut by coming back after being rocked and taken down. Levi acknowledges that Kirk may have success early but believes Ribovics's volume and power will be decisive. He also mentions that Kirk moving up to lightweight may help his cardio, but still favors Ribovics.
James believes Ribovics is the better fighter overall, citing intangibles like cardio, durability, power, physicality, heart, and will. He thinks Kirk may have better technical MMA skills but lacks the intangibles and will look for a way out when the going gets tough. James would make Ribovics at least a -170 favorite, seeing value at the current -140 to -150 range.
Ribovics has shown he can deal with grapple-heavy approaches and work back to his feet to land his striking. Kirk struggles with pressure, and Ribovics will overwhelm him with aggressive striking, eventually finding the chin and finishing with ground and pound. The under 2.5 rounds is also a viable play.
Paul picks Ribovics, citing his physicality and power. He thinks Kirk has stagnated and lost to better competition. He notes Ribovics' performance against a tough wrestler showed his potential. He expects Ribovics to win by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics to win by KO in the first round. He describes Kirk as a worse version of Shane Burgos who overthrows his shots and leaves himself open to counters. He believes Ribovics' nasty counter hooks will catch Kirk coming in, leading to a finish.
Zane picks Ribovics because Kirk is all flash and swagger with little substance, and he crumbles under pressure as seen against Damon Jackson. Ribovics is a more solid, deliberate striker who can pressure Kirk and dominate him in any area. Kirk has no answer for naked pressure, and Ribovics looks better everywhere.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loik Radzhabov | 1 | 66 of 129 | 51% | 98 of 162 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:31 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 40 of 85 | 47% | 67 of 117 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 7:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 20 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 | |
| 2 | Loik Radzhabov | 1 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 38 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 18 of 33 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 | |
| 3 | Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 41 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:27 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 29 of 47 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loik Radzhabov | 66 of 129 | 51% | 52 of 114 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 61 of 124 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 40 of 85 | 47% | 33 of 78 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 37 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loik Radzhabov | 14 of 32 | 43% | 10 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 8 of 23 | 34% | 7 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Loik Radzhabov | 25 of 47 | 53% | 18 of 40 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 13 of 28 | 46% | 11 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Loik Radzhabov | 27 of 50 | 54% | 24 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 19 of 34 | 55% | 15 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Loik Radzhabov based on his pressure, cardio, and non-stop wrestling, which he believes will be the difference. He notes that Radzhabov can push a pace for 15 minutes and has solid takedowns, but his striking can be sloppy and he gets tired. Angelo is hesitant because both fighters are making their UFC debut, making the outcome unpredictable, and he advises against betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics as a dog despite Radzhabov being the favorite. He notes Radzhabov is on short notice and has questionable cardio, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere with submissions and power. However, he acknowledges Ribovics is untested against good competition. He predicts a second-round KO for Ribovics.
Cody picks Radzhabov, citing his experience against higher-level competition in PFL. He thinks Ribovics' regional competition is too low level and his grappling defense is suspect. He expects Radzhabov to take him down and dominate.
Connor picks Loik Radzhabov, relying on his wrestling and durability. He notes that Ribovics is a heavy-handed puncher but has limited grappling, and Radzhabov has never been knocked out. Connor thinks that if Radzhabov can survive the early exchanges, he will take the fight to the clinch and use his Greco-Roman wrestling to control the fight. He acknowledges the risk of Ribovics landing a knockout.
Jacob picks Esteban Ribovics, citing Radzhabov's tendency to get tired and put his hands down, which will leave him vulnerable to Ribovics' power. He believes Ribovics can survive the first round and then take over as Radzhabov fades. Jacob is 50/50 on the fight and sees value in a Ribovics finish in the second or third round.
Radzhabov is a grapple-heavy fighter who will close distance and drag the fight to the ground, where he does damage from top position. Ribovics has questionable takedown defense and his Kimura sweep path to his feet won't work at this level. Radzhabov will repeatedly take him down and grind out a decision victory.
Paul is confident in Radzhabov, calling it a talent gap. He thinks Ribovics' submission attempts won't work at this level and Radzhabov's pressure and takedowns will be too much. He notes Radzhabov's cardio is a concern but expects a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Loik Radzhabov over Esteban Ribovics, citing Radzhabov's experience against tough competition in PFL and his durability, having never been finished. He notes Ribovics' recent win was against a low-level opponent and doubts he can finish Radzhabov. He predicts a decision win for Radzhabov, 29-28.
Zane also picks Radzhabov, though he is hesitant. He notes that Ribovics is a powerful puncher but Radzhabov is durable and has a strong clinch game. Zane thinks that if Radzhabov can avoid getting knocked out early, he will grind out a win with his wrestling. He acknowledges that Ribovics could land a knockout, but Radzhabov's chin and experience give him the edge.
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