Fight card

UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen

April 15, 2023 T-Mobile Center Kansas City, Missouri, U.S.
Max Holloway

Max Holloway W

27-9
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00
Fight 1 VS Featherweight Completed

Max Holloway

Moneyline
BetMGM -165
KO/TKO
BetRivers +285
Submission
FanDuel +1700
Decision
FanDuel +195

Arnold Allen

Moneyline
Caesars +150
KO/TKO
FanDuel +550
Submission
BetMGM +1200
Decision
BetRivers +430
Fighter Stats

Max Holloway

Age34
Height5' 11"
Reach69.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Arnold Allen

Age32
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Max Holloway

6.91SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
4.61SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
0.23TD Avg
53.0%TD Acc.
81.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Arnold Allen

3.47SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
3.04SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
0.86TD Avg
47.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Angelo picks Max Holloway, citing his incredible volume, experience, and size advantage. He notes Holloway is only 31 and has only lost to Volkanovski and Poirier. He acknowledges Holloway has absorbed a lot of damage and his chin may give out eventually, but until then he's riding with him. He has no bet on the main event, preferring to watch without wagering.

"I gotta go Max Holloway here no bets I haven't bet the last few Main Events"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Big Brady picks Max Holloway to win by knockout in the fourth or fifth round. He highlights Holloway's unmatched volume and durability, noting that his only recent losses are to Alexander Volkanovski. He believes Arnold Allen's only path to victory is a knockout, which is unlikely given Holloway's chin. He expects Holloway to break Allen late.

fourth or fifth round knockout
"I think out Max Holloway gets Arnold Allen out of there in that fourth or fifth round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Cody acknowledges Holloway's mileage and potential regression, but trusts his proven five-round cardio, durability, and volume. He notes Arnold Allen's low output historically and questions whether Allen can maintain high output for five rounds. He sees Holloway as still the superior fighter, though he admits Allen is improving and could win in a few years.

"I gotta feel like this is still his fight to win so I am going to go with Max Holloway"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Connor picks Holloway but expresses hesitation, noting that Allen's southpaw style and counter-punching could pose problems similar to Poirier's approach. He acknowledges Holloway's wear and tear from a long career and many wars, but ultimately trusts Holloway's proven track record against top competition. Connor feels Allen has not yet shown he can maintain the necessary pace and composure for five rounds against Holloway.

Same odds as Zane mentioned; Connor does not add betting commentary.
"I think the smart pick just has to be Holloway but the gut pick you get a lot of options."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Holloway's output and durability will overwhelm Allen, who has benefited from favorable matchmaking and low activity. Holloway's only recent losses are to Volkanovski, and he still performed well against Kattar and Rodriguez. Allen's low output style will be exposed by Holloway's volume and pressure. Expect Holloway to finish late, possibly in rounds 4 or 5.

Holloway wins in round 4 or 5
"I really like Max Holloway in this fight to bounce back and to kind of expose Arnold Allen for being a guy that has benefited from lack of activity and favorable matchmaking."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Paul echoes Cody's reasoning, emphasizing Holloway's incredible volume and durability. He notes that Holloway landed 445 significant strikes against Calvin Kattar, questioning if Arnold Allen can keep that pace. He acknowledges Holloway may be slowing down but still finds it hard to ignore his output.

"my Holloway for me as well it's really really hard to ignore the volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Max Holloway

The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway to win by decision, citing Holloway's volume striking, boxing, chin, and takedown defense. He acknowledges Arnold Allen's power and recent improvements but believes Holloway's experience in championship fights and ability to take three of five rounds will prevail. He notes the -190 line is a bit high and sees value on Allen at +155, but ultimately sides with Holloway.

Holloway wins by decision
"I gotta take Max Holloway to get the job done here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Zane picks Holloway, acknowledging Allen's southpaw tactics and potential but emphasizing Holloway's proven durability and pace. He notes that Allen's best wins have asterisks (Hooker at wrong weight, Kattar injury) and that Holloway has only lost to elite competition like Volkanovski and Poirier. Zane believes Holloway's volume and pressure will be too much for Allen over five rounds.

Holloway opened at -150, now -170 to -190; Allen opened +140, now +150 to +160. Zane mentions the odds movement but does not recommend a bet.
"I have to pick Max. ... It's Max goddamn Holloway."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Edson Barboza

Edson Barboza W

24-14
KO (knee) R1 2:37
Fight 2 VS Featherweight Completed

Edson Barboza

Moneyline
Unibet +148
KO/TKO
Unibet +400
Submission
FanDuel +2600
Decision
FanDuel +390

Billy Quarantillo

Moneyline
Caesars -165
KO/TKO
FanDuel +240
Submission
BetRivers +850
Decision
BetRivers +275
Fighter Stats

Edson Barboza

Age40
Height5' 11"
Reach75.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Billy Quarantillo

Age37
Height5' 10"
Reach70.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Edson Barboza

4.14SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
4.68SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.43TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
73.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Billy Quarantillo

7.44SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
5.83SApM
42.0%Str. Def.
1.47TD Avg
24.0%TD Acc.
61.0%TD Def.
1.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo, but emphasizes he needs to wrestle to win. He notes Barboza is the more technical striker and that Quarantillo cannot let Barboza settle into a striking pace. He references Barboza's win over Shane Burgos as a cautionary tale. He is not betting yet, calling Barboza 'super live'.

"Billy Q's gonna be the pick here I'm gonna need him to wrestle so that Edson isn't comfortable striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by late second-round knockout. He notes Barboza's age (37) and recent decline, while Quarantillo is durable and has high volume and pressure. He expects Barboza to look good early but fade, allowing Quarantillo to drown him with pace and power. He is not worried about Barboza's early knockout power.

late second round knockout
"I think billy gets him out of there in that second or third round just drowning with that volume"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody sees this as a classic case of Barboza starting hot and Quarantillo wearing him down. He notes Quarantillo's takedown accuracy is low (24%) but he shoots multiple times, and his superior cardio and ground game should take over in rounds 2 and 3. However, he's not confident pre-fight and prefers to bet Quarantillo live after round 1.

Live bet after round 1 if Quarantillo loses first round
"I'll go with Billy but minus 165 pre-flop kind of scares me off"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Connor picks Barboza, arguing that Quarantillo is too slow and too much of a slow starter to implement the pressure needed to beat Barboza. He notes that Barboza's early damage accumulation (body kicks, leg kicks) will prevent Quarantillo from building into the fight. Connor compares Quarantillo unfavorably to Shane Burgos, whom Barboza destroyed, and believes Barboza's thudding shots will land on Quarantillo's entire body in the first round.

Connor calls Barboza a 'very live dog' at plus money, implying value but not a specific bet.
"I'm going to pick Edson Barboza... I think Quarantillo is just too much too slow and too much of a slow starter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Quarantillo's cardio and forward pressure will be the difference. Barboza has takedown defense issues and fades late. Quarantillo can survive early striking onslaughts and take over in later rounds with takedowns and ground-and-pound. Expect a finish in round 3 as Quarantillo's pace breaks Barboza.

Billy Quarantillo wins inside the distance; round 3 TKO prop
"I fully expect the cardio of Billy Quarantillo to be the Difference Maker in this matchup and as long as he doesn't get put out early he should be able to take over later and eventually get that …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo is hittable early but wears opponents down. He highlights Barboza's layoff and age (37) but acknowledges Barboza's first-round explosiveness. He thinks Quarantillo's wrestling may not be as good as previous Barboza opponents, but his volume and durability should carry him.

"I would rather take an even money play on Billy after he drops the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his well-rounded game, volume striking (7.88 strikes per minute), and grappling. He believes Quarantillo will close the distance, make it a war, and potentially finish Barboza, who is 37 and cutting to featherweight. He notes Barboza's power and experience but thinks Quarantillo's freshness and pressure will be key.

Quarantillo wins by finish or decision; potential finish of Barboza
"I am taking Billy Q to get the job done here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Zane picks Quarantillo, believing his relentless pressure and willingness to walk through fire will overwhelm Barboza. He notes that Barboza has historically struggled against pressure fighters who stay on him, and Quarantillo's madman mentality and one-size-fits-all aggression should be effective. Zane acknowledges Quarantillo is slower and less technical than previous Barboza opponents but thinks his psychological edge and constant forward movement will carry the day.

Barboza opened +130, now +140; Quarantillo opened -140/-145, now -160 to -190. Zane does not mention betting.
"I'm going to stick with my Quarantillo pick."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Azamat Murzakanov

Azamat Murzakanov W

16-1
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 3 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Azamat Murzakanov

Moneyline
BetWay +140
KO/TKO
BetMGM +300
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
BetRivers +600

Dustin Jacoby

Moneyline
Caesars -140
KO/TKO
BetRivers +250
Submission
BetMGM +1800
Decision
FanDuel +200
Fighter Stats

Azamat Murzakanov

Age37
Height5' 10"
Reach71.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Dustin Jacoby

Age38
Height6' 3"
Reach76.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Azamat Murzakanov

4.7SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
2.86SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
0.55TD Avg
15.0%TD Acc.
87.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Dustin Jacoby

5.4SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.92SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
0.32TD Avg
25.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby as the better technical striker, noting he was ranked 2nd in the world in kickboxing. However, he is not betting because Jacoby lacks power and Murzakanov hits very hard and has comeback KO power. He expects Jacoby to need to point-fight perfectly for 15 minutes to win, which is risky.

"Dustin's gonna be the pick but I'm not gonna bet him because he's gonna have to point fight his way to a win here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision. He cites Jacoby's size, reach, and volume advantages, as well as his good takedown defense and chin. He doubts Murzakanov's cardio and ability to take Jacoby down, and believes Jacoby will outpoint him over three rounds. He notes Murzakanov's power but thinks Jacoby can absorb it.

"give me a Dustin Jacoby to win this fight give me Dustin Jacoby to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Cody notes Murzakanov is a first-round finisher but low volume, while Jacoby throws high volume (120+ strikes). He thinks Jacoby's reach and cardio will be key, and that Murzakanov's power shots may not be enough to overcome Jacoby's output. He prefers to bet Jacoby live after the first round.

Live bet after first round
"I would take Justin Jacoby but these are big boys that are going to be largely in a striking Affair"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Connor also picks Jacoby, agreeing that Murzakanov's power-punching style is ill-suited for Jacoby's rangey, technical approach. He notes that Jacoby is durable and has only been knocked out by elite punchers like King Mo and Alex Pereira. Connor believes Murzakanov's lack of combination punching and setup will leave him vulnerable to Jacoby's consistent output and counter-striking.

"I came to the same conclusion. I'm just not that impressed with Azamat Murzakanov."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby's range, footwork, and kicks will keep Murzakanov at distance. Murzakanov's cardio and wrestling are questionable, and he tends to fade. Jacoby's disciplined striking and cardio advantage should lead to a clear decision victory. Murzakanov is difficult to finish, so expect a full 15 minutes.

Fight goes to decision
"I think we see Dustin Jacoby control his fight pretty easily from his kicks and utilizing his range and his height Advantage."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul sides with Jacoby's volume and reach advantage (5 inches). He notes Murzakanov may be undersized at 205 and that Jacoby's output should overwhelm him. He agrees with Cody that the live market may offer better value.

"I'll side with the volume again I'm going to decide with the the numbers and Jacoby's got a five inch reach advantage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby to win by unanimous decision, citing Jacoby's length, footwork, and striking output. He warns Jacoby must avoid a war and use leg kicks from the outside to outpoint Murzakanov, who has fight-ending power but slow starts. He notes the -190 line is a bit high and would prefer -170, but still sides with Jacoby.

Jacoby wins by decision
"Dustin Jacoby will be the pick"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Zane picks Jacoby, citing his volume, durability, and technical kickboxing as too much for Murzakanov. He notes that Murzakanov is a one-dimensional power puncher who relies on timing and rhythm changes, but Jacoby's jab, kicks, and counter-punching will keep him at range. Zane also points out that Murzakanov's wins have come against lower-level competition, while Jacoby has proven himself against tougher opponents like Khalil Rountree.

"I think Jacoby's volume here carries the day."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Ion Cuțelaba

Ion Cuțelaba W

20-11-1
TKO (punches) R1 2:05
Fight 4 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Ion Cuțelaba

Moneyline
FanDuel -130
KO/TKO
BetWay +163
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
BetRivers +650

Tanner Boser

Moneyline
Caesars +110
KO/TKO
FanDuel +290
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
BetRivers +360
Fighter Stats

Ion Cuțelaba

Age32
Height6' 1"
Reach75"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Tanner Boser

Age34
Height6' 2"
Reach75.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Ion Cuțelaba

4.23SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.28SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
3.76TD Avg
49.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Tanner Boser

4.7SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
2.75SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Angelo picks Tanner Boser as an underdog, noting the line has flipped from Boser being a favorite to an underdog. He believes Boser has all the power, chin, and athleticism to win, especially at light heavyweight where he looks in great shape. He notes Cuțelaba has no chin and gets finished in losses. He has a quarter-unit bet on Boser at +105 and may add more.

quarter unit moneyline bet at +105, may add more
"Tanner Bowser is absolutely the pick quarter of a unit on him at plus 105"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ion Cuțelaba

Big Brady picks Ion Cuțelaba to win by first-round TKO via ground and pound. He notes Cuțelaba's excellent first-round wrestling and Boser's terrible takedown defense and ground game. However, he warns that Cuțelaba has only one round of gas, so if it goes past the first, Boser could win. He suggests a live bet on Boser if the fight leaves the first round.

first round TKO, live bet on Boser if past first round
"I think kudalaba does get buzzer out of there but this is going to be a good live bet situation"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ion Cuțelaba

Cody is tentative, wanting to see Boser's weigh-in at 205. He thinks Cuțelaba's wrestling should be effective early, but Boser's cardio and size could be factors. He picks Cuțelaba for now but could switch.

"I'll take ion um until until further notice like I could totally switch this pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Connor also picks Boser but with hesitation, agreeing that Cuțelaba's erratic style and poor fight IQ make him prone to losing. He notes that Boser's consistent, unimaginative approach may be enough to outlast Cuțelaba's wild aggression. However, Connor warns that dropping to light heavyweight could be a terrible idea for Boser, as the speed of the division may expose him to shots he didn't see at heavyweight.

"I kind of favor Boser here simply because his defining quality at heavyweight was just relentless unimaginative consistency."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ion Cuțelaba

Cuțelaba's wrestling background should be the key against Boser, who has grappling deficiencies. Boser is moving to light heavyweight but still has issues with takedown defense. Cuțelaba is desperate for a win and may revert to his wrestling. However, his confidence and game plan are uncertain after three straight losses. Expect a grinding decision if he uses his wrestling.

"I'm gonna lean kutilaba here I'm going to lead him by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Paul notes Boser has made 205 before and has good striking and cardio. He thinks Cuțelaba will win the first round but gas, allowing Boser to take over. He likes Boser as a live underdog and picks him outright.

Live bet after first round
"I'm gonna go with Tanner Bose I know we've said this in the last prior two fights I'm gonna take the underdog out right in this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

The MMA Guru picks Tanner Boser to win, possibly by finish, as he drops to light heavyweight. He believes Boser's improved physique, footwork, and boxing will overwhelm Cuțelaba, who is on a three-fight losing streak and may be mentally fragile. He notes Cuțelaba's wrestling and durability but thinks Boser's pressure and striking will be too much.

Boser wins by finish (KO/TKO)
"I'm gonna take Tanner Bossier to get a finish"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Zane picks Boser hesitantly, citing Cuțelaba's tendency to self-destruct and Boser's consistency. He notes that Cuțelaba has become overly reliant on takedowns and burns energy, while Boser is durable and methodical. However, Zane expresses concern about Boser dropping to light heavyweight, as the speed and athleticism of the division may negate his durability advantage.

"I'll take Boser because there's so many ways for Cuțelaba to melt down and self destruct."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Pedro Munhoz

Pedro Munhoz W

20-10
DEC R3 5:00
Fight 5 VS Bantamweight Completed

Pedro Munhoz

Moneyline
Caesars +200
KO/TKO
FanDuel +850
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
BetRivers +350

Chris Gutierrez

Moneyline
BetWay -200
KO/TKO
FanDuel +350
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
BetRivers +120
Fighter Stats

Pedro Munhoz

Age39
Height5' 6"
Reach65.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Chris Gutierrez

Age35
Height5' 9"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Pedro Munhoz

5.38SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
6.29SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.48TD Avg
16.0%TD Acc.
82.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Chris Gutierrez

4.4SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
2.65SApM
63.0%Str. Def.
0.3TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
67.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (2)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Gutierrez

Connor picks Gutierrez, agreeing that Munhoz has lost his edge since moving to American Top Team. He notes that Munhoz's old Kings MMA style of relentless pressure is gone, replaced by a more tentative approach. Connor believes Gutierrez's consistent output and target selection will outwork Munhoz, who has become too passive and reliant on a jab and footwork that don't suit his natural aggression.

"I think Gutierrez is way too consistent and again not picky about the targets that he accepts at that range."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Gutierrez

Zane picks Gutierrez, highlighting his improvement and confidence versus Munhoz's decline. He notes that Munhoz has lost his aggressive, four-limbed attack and become more technical but less effective. Zane believes Gutierrez's volume, kicking game, and ability to attack all targets will overwhelm Munhoz, who has poor defensive footwork and has been vulnerable to leg kicks historically.

Gutierrez opened -230, now -195; Munhoz opened +200, now +173. Zane does not mention betting.
"I kind of just think Gutierrez is going to be too much for him to handle."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Rafa García

Rafa García W

19-4
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 6 VS Lightweight Completed

Rafa García

Moneyline
BetRivers -275
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1000
Submission
FanDuel +340
Decision
BetRivers +120

Clay Guida

Moneyline
Caesars +270
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1200
Submission
BetMGM +1400
Decision
BetRivers +380
Fighter Stats

Rafa García

Age31
Height5' 7"
Reach70"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Clay Guida

Age44
Height5' 7"
Reach70.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Rafa García

4.31SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
4.54SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
3.13TD Avg
44.0%TD Acc.
76.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Clay Guida

2.63SLpM
33.0%Str. Acc.
3.0SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
3.1TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafa García

Angelo picks Rafa García, expecting him to get takedowns and win striking exchanges. He notes García's grappling and power, but also his cardio issues. He is not betting on García at -190 because the odds are too high, especially against a relentless pressure fighter like Guida who could expose cardio issues.

"half is going to be the pick I'm not gonna bet on him I just don't like those odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafa García

Big Brady picks Rafa García to win by first-round submission. He highlights García's improved cardio and grappling since moving to Elevation Fight Team, and notes Guida's age (41) and history of being submitted (11 times). He expects García to take Guida down and submit him early.

first round submission
"I like Garcia to win this fight by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafa García

Cody sees Garcia as a younger, better version of Guida with pressure wrestling and improving skills. He thinks Garcia's clinch strength and cardio will overwhelm the aging Guida. He acknowledges the line is steep but believes Garcia wins.

"gotta go with Rafa Garcia"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Connor also picks Garcia, agreeing that Guida's style is not threatening enough to stop Garcia's forward pressure. He notes that Guida is more evasive than aggressive at this stage, and Garcia's willingness to keep working even when takedowns fail will be key. Connor believes Garcia's youth and activity will overwhelm the 41-year-old Guida.

"I got to take Rafa Garcia."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafa García

Garcia is younger and entering his prime, while Guida's recent wins are over older or retiring fighters. Garcia's boxing and forward pressure should outwork Guida, though Guida's cardio and grinding style could make it close. Garcia's ability to mix in takedowns and maintain pace should earn him a decision victory.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I expect him to land the better and more significant strikes in the early goings of this fight maybe not put clay Guido away but do enough to win a decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Paul is intrigued by Guida's plus money, noting Guida's takedown defense (only 2 takedowns allowed in 14 fights) and the possibility of a close decision. He thinks Garcia's takedown totals may be inflated and that Guida could grind out a win. He placed a small bet on Guida.

Small bet on Guida moneyline; also considering Guida by split decision prop
"I'm leaning towards clay just because of the money line we'll see where the where it goes I added a little bit of plus 210 really really small little play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafa García

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García, citing his youth (28), well-rounded skills, and potential to finish the 41-year-old Guida. He believes García will corner Guida and put an end to his recent string of close decisions. He notes Guida's durability and movement but thinks García's prime and power will prevail.

García wins by finish (KO/TKO)
"Rafa Garcia gets the job done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Zane picks Garcia, noting that Guida's recent win over Scott Holtzman was unimpressive and that Garcia's relentless pressure and wrestling will be too much. He acknowledges that Garcia can struggle if his takedowns are stuffed, but believes Guida's lack of offensive pressure and age will allow Garcia to implement his game plan. Zane expects Garcia to push forward, land punches, and mix in takedowns.

Garcia opened -250/-230, now -245; Guida opened +200, now +213. Zane does not mention betting.
"I'm picking Rafa Garcia. This is not a hard fight to pick."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Bill Algeo

Bill Algeo W

18-9
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:40
Fight 7 VS Featherweight Completed

Bill Algeo

Moneyline
FanDuel -200
KO/TKO
BetWay +450
Submission
BetRivers +650
Decision
BetRivers +150

T.J. Brown

Moneyline
Caesars +190
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1800
Submission
FanDuel +1200
Decision
FanDuel +260
Fighter Stats

Bill Algeo

Age36
Height6' 0"
Reach73.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSwitch

T.J. Brown

Age36
Height5' 9"
Reach72"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Bill Algeo

5.88SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
4.38SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
1.03TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
55.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - T.J. Brown

3.37SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
2.89SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
3.41TD Avg
57.0%TD Acc.
36.0%TD Def.
1.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Angelo picks T.J. Brown as an underdog, citing his high pace, solid striking, and good grappling with almost 4 takedowns per fight. He notes Algeo's takedown defense is poor (38%) and that Algeo doesn't use his wrestling offensively. He expects Brown to get takedowns, set the pace, and win a decision. He has a quarter-unit bet on Brown at +140.

quarter unit moneyline bet at +140
"I see TJ getting the takedown set in the pace riding it out on top and getting the win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes Algeo's poor takedown defense but excellent get-up game and scrambling. He expects Brown to have early success with takedowns but tire, allowing Algeo to take over and potentially submit him, as Brown has been submitted before.

submission
"give me algo give me algo by sub I think he finishes Brown later in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Cody notes Algeo's takedown defense is poor (55%) but his cardio and BJJ are excellent. He expects Brown to get early takedowns but fade, allowing Algeo to take over with volume. He sees Algeo winning by decision or late stoppage.

Live bet after first round if Brown takes Algeo down
"bill ljo again and we've mentioned this about a lot of other fights on this card excellent live betting opportunity"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Algeo's strong start doesn't walk him into danger and that Algeo's pressure and range control will allow him to rack up damage early. He also mentions Algeo's height advantage and active kicking game.

"Yeah, I agree. It feels like the kind of fight where Algeo starting strong doesn't walk him into anything dangerous enough."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Algeo's unorthodox striking and scrambling ability will be too much for Brown. Brown's path to victory is grappling, but Algeo is hard to hold down and creates scrambles. Algeo's cardio and striking volume should win rounds. Expect a decision, as both are durable and finishes are unlikely.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I think algo wins this fight I think the best way to approach it though could possibly be the over two and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Algeo's cardio and Jiu-Jitsu. He thinks Brown's wrestling will be effective early but he'll tire, and Algeo will take over in later rounds.

"yeah that all makes sense to me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo, citing his unorthodox striking, length, and takedown defense (55%). He believes Algeo will keep the fight standing and outpoint Brown, who relies on wrestling. He notes Brown's recent win over Eric Silva but thinks Algeo's tricky style and output will edge a close fight.

"give me senor Perfecto Bill algio to get the job done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Zane picks Algeo because he starts strong and puts too much information into TJ Brown's computer for him to adjust in time. He notes Algeo's hyper-aggressive style, good kicking game, and height advantage, and believes Brown's slow starts will cost him.

"I am going to pick Algeo here. I just think he is going to start too strong and put too much information in the TJ Brown computer for him to make the necessary adjustments in time."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Brandon Royval

Brandon Royval W

17-9
KO (knee and elbows) R1 2:09
Fight 8 VS Flyweight Completed

Brandon Royval

Moneyline
BetMGM +170
KO/TKO
FanDuel +950
Submission
FanDuel +420
Decision
BetRivers +700

Matheus Nicolau

Moneyline
Caesars -190
KO/TKO
FanDuel +380
Submission
BetWay +500
Decision
BetRivers +200
Fighter Stats

Brandon Royval

Age33
Height5' 9"
Reach68.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Matheus Nicolau

Age33
Height5' 6"
Reach66.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Brandon Royval

5.54SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
4.25SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
0.65TD Avg
75.0%TD Acc.
45.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Matheus Nicolau

3.31SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
2.98SApM
65.0%Str. Def.
1.22TD Avg
43.0%TD Acc.
90.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau, citing his technical striking and methodical grappling. He believes Nicolau's technical striking will overcome Royval's chaos, and that Royval won't be able to take Nicolau down, making it a kickboxing match where Nicolau shines. He notes Royval was dropped badly by Schnell. He has a half-unit moneyline bet on Nicolau at -155.

half unit moneyline bet at -155
"I think his technical striking should be able to get through the chaos that Brandon Roy Val creates"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Big Brady picks Brandon Royval to win by first-round knockout. He describes Royval as a wild, unique fighter who thrives in chaos, while Nicolau is calm and composed. He believes Royval's style will force a brawl, and notes Nicolau has been knocked out before. He expects fireworks and a finish.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Roy Val to knock out Mateus nickel out here I'll say he does it in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Cody thinks Nicolau is technically sound and should weather Royval's early chaos. He notes Royval is dangerous early but tends to fade and is injury-prone. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop as well.

Under 2.5 rounds (-120)
"I think eventually Mateus nicolao gets the job done here and under two and a half rounds is minus 120"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Nicolau's counter striking is excellently timed and that he has the wrestling to handle Royval's scrambles. He also notes that Nicolau is a solid positional grappler and can be the one with key switch-ups.

"I think more than most fighters that Rival tries to march down and overwhelm, he's going to find counters hard to come by here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Royval's chaos and output will overwhelm Nicolau, who tends to have close fights and low output. Royval's scrambling and submission threat create opportunities. Nicolau's discipline may crack under pressure. Royval can finish inside the distance, as his style leads to finishes. Under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.

Under 2.5 rounds; Royval wins inside the distance
"I'm gonna go with the raw dog here as the underdog I'm going to take him to win this fight inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Paul agrees, calling Royval 'frail' and noting his tendency to get finished. He thinks Nicolau's accurate counter-striking and durability will lead to a finish or clear decision. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I'm just uh locking in under two and a half at minus 110 right now"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, praising his technical, composed style and BJJ background. He believes Nicolau will read Royval's wild, tornado-like approach and make him pay, potentially by submission or KO. He notes Royval's size and unpredictability but thinks Nicolau's polish and 93% takedown defense will be decisive.

Nicolau wins by finish (submission or KO)
"give me Mathias nicolao to get the job done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Zane picks Nicolau because he is a cleaner fighter and a better counter puncher. He notes that Nicolau has the wrestling component to his counter game, which gives him an option to interrupt Royval's relentless pressure. He also mentions that Nicolau is a bigger striker with excellent timing and can handle Royval's grappling.

"But I just think Nicolau is a cleaner. He's, he's just a better fighter than Rival, I think."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Zak Cummings

Zak Cummings W

25-7
TKO (punches) R3 4:13
Fight 9 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Zak Cummings

Moneyline
Caesars -200
KO/TKO
BetRivers +550
Submission
BetWay +450
Decision
FanDuel +145

Ed Herman

Moneyline
FanDuel +184
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1000
Submission
FanDuel +1300
Decision
FanDuel +350
Fighter Stats

Zak Cummings

Age41
Height6' 0"
Reach75.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Ed Herman

Age45
Height6' 1"
Reach77.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Zak Cummings

2.96SLpM
35.0%Str. Acc.
2.91SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.62TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Ed Herman

3.31SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.71SApM
42.0%Str. Def.
1.96TD Avg
47.0%TD Acc.
59.0%TD Def.
1.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Zak Cummings

Angelo reluctantly picks Zak Cummings but strongly advises against betting on this fight. He notes both fighters are old (Cummings 38, Herman 42), neither has fought in a year, and neither is athletic or fast. He expects a slow, boring fight going all three rounds and says the only bet is not betting at all.

"Zach's gonna be the pick but who cares who can do nothing with this"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zak Cummings

Big Brady picks Zak Cummings by decision, but with low confidence. He calls it a 'mess of a fight' with both fighters old and inactive. He notes Cummings moving up to light heavyweight and a picture suggesting he's not training. He picks Cummings simply because he looked okay in his last fight, while Herman is more washed.

"give me Zach Cummings by Greasy decision where I I bet they're going to go on there and just look at each other for three rounds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Zak Cummings

Cody picks Cummings based on speed and volume, noting Herman is old and slow. He thinks Cummings can keep the fight standing and outpoint Herman. He acknowledges both are past their prime.

"I'll go with Zach Cummings because Ed Herman's dust"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Zak Cummings

Connor reluctantly agrees with Zane, stating he has absolutely no reason to pick one or the other. He notes that the odds should be fairly even and that Cummings has never won a light heavyweight fight.

"Yeah, I guess I'll go with you. I have absolutely no reason to pick one or the other. Honestly, I just don't know."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zak Cummings

Cummings is returning from a long layoff and back surgery, which raises uncertainty. However, his style is more reliable than Herman's at this stage. Cummings has better striking and BJJ, and should be able to grind out a decision in his hometown. Herman is 42 and coming off a controversial win. Tough fight to bet, but lean Cummings.

"I'm going to lean with Zach Cummings as I feel like his style is a little bit more reliable."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Zak Cummings

Paul notes Cummings is smaller and quicker, and should use his speed to out-strike Herman. He thinks Cummings' grappling is good enough to avoid submissions. He expects a decision win for Cummings.

"I gotta go with speed I gotta go with Zach Cummings to just beat him on the feet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zak Cummings

The MMA Guru picks Zak Cummings, despite his long layoff and weight gain, because he believes Cummings is still a solid well-rounded fighter compared to the 42-year-old Herman who has deteriorated. He notes Herman's recent controversial win and sluggish performance, and thinks Cummings will land good shots and win.

"give me Zach Cummings"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Zak Cummings

Zane picks Cummings based on basic math: middleweight is bad but light heavyweight is worse, and Ed Herman is not a typical light heavyweight. He expects Cummings to be the faster guy in a slow-paced fight where both men potshot at each other. He acknowledges uncertainty due to Cummings' back injury and layoff.

"I think I'm just going to pick Zach Cummings and the basic math I'm doing is that, uh, sure. Middle weight is bad, but light heavyweight is worse. And Ed Herman does not fit the bill of your …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Gillian Robertson

Gillian Robertson W

17-8
Submission (armbar) R2 4:21
Fight 10 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Gillian Robertson

Moneyline
BetWay -125
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1150
Submission
FanDuel +260
Decision
BetWay +350

Piera Rodríguez

Moneyline
Caesars +115
KO/TKO
BetRivers +400
Submission
BetRivers +1400
Decision
FanDuel +290
Fighter Stats

Gillian Robertson

Age31
Height5' 5"
Reach63.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Piera Rodríguez

Age33
Height5' 3"
Reach63"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Gillian Robertson

2.71SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.86SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
2.76TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
38.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Piera Rodríguez

4.04SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
3.13SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
4.04TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
81.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez as a live underdog, citing her nasty striking, finishing ability, and 77% takedown defense. He notes that Gillian Robertson's takedowns are terrible and her striking is not good enough to hang. He expects Rodríguez to defend takedowns, win striking exchanges, and potentially get her own takedowns. He has a small quarter-unit bet on her at +102.

quarter unit moneyline bet at +102
"I have a small quarter of a uni money line bet on for her Rodriguez at plus 102"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win a close decision. He notes Rodríguez's striking advantage and solid takedown defense (77%), while Robertson has poor takedown defense (28%). He is concerned about Robertson's weight cut to strawweight but leans Rodríguez due to her ability to keep the fight standing and potentially land takedowns.

"I actually lean uh the Rodriguez side I think she's going to have some advantages here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody bet Robertson earlier at plus money and notes her grappling is strong, especially at strawweight where she is undefeated. He thinks the weight cut may help her strength and control. He acknowledges Rodriguez's improvements but sticks with Robertson.

Bet Robertson at +109 earlier
"I've got Robertson at like a half decent price but um not gonna be stunned if I uh if I absolutely lose it but I'm gonna pick Robertson"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Connor agrees, noting that Robertson's striking is bad and she looks surprised when hit. He believes Rodriguez has the control of distance and wrestling to handle Robertson's grappling, and that Robertson's only chance is to get on top, but the process of getting there is chaotic.

"Yeah, I'm inclined to agree. I would really like to see Robertson turn that corner and it might still happen."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Rodríguez's striking and improved grappling will be too much for Robertson, who is one-dimensional with her BJJ. Robertson struggles to get fights to the ground and gets outstruck. Rodríguez has shown good takedown defense and can work back to her feet. Her aggression and clinch knees should win rounds. Robertson's experience won't overcome the skill gap.

"I like everything that I'm seeing from Rodriguez I'm loving the improvements I'm seeing as well and I would be happy to take her as the underdog."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Paul likes Rodriguez as a slight underdog, citing her wrestling, cardio, and training camp. He thinks Robertson's striking is poor and that Rodriguez can win the stand-up and avoid submissions. He expects a 29-28 decision for Rodriguez.

"I think she wins the fight does it didn't really matter what the odds were she could have been the minus 130 versus plus 110 Julian Robinson I was picking Rodriguez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

The MMA Guru edges Piera Rodríguez in a close fight, citing her well-rounded skills, striking accuracy, and takedown defense (77%). He was initially leaning toward Robertson but was impressed by Rodríguez's tape. He thinks Rodríguez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Robertson, though Robertson's grappling is always a threat.

"I will Edge Pierre Rodriguez"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Zane picks Rodriguez because she looks controlled, moves in combination, and gets out of the pocket quickly. He notes that Robertson's striking is bad and she closes her eyes when hit, and that Rodriguez has the requisite control of distance and is a solid wrestler.

"I'm going to pick Rodriguez. I think she's looked controlled in her fights."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel Zellhuber W

15-4
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 11 VS Lightweight Completed

Daniel Zellhuber

Moneyline
BetMGM -125
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
BetRivers +1050
Decision
BetWay +200

Lando Vannata

Moneyline
Caesars +110
KO/TKO
FanDuel +900
Submission
BetMGM +1100
Decision
BetRivers +215
Fighter Stats

Daniel Zellhuber

Age26
Height6' 1"
Reach77.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Lando Vannata

Age34
Height5' 9"
Reach71.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Daniel Zellhuber

5.45SLpM
38.0%Str. Acc.
6.17SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.14TD Avg
25.0%TD Acc.
81.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Lando Vannata

4.52SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
4.71SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
1.24TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo picks Daniel Zellhuber despite his gun-shy UFC debut, trusting his pre-UFC fights and 88% takedown defense. He notes Zellhuber's length, power, and relentless striking pace when he's on. He expects a close, fast-paced fight but believes Zellhuber's talent will prevail over Lando's well-roundedness.

"I trust his 88 takedown defense I trust his pre-ufc fights to be more indicative of who he actually is"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady picks Daniel Zellhuber to win by decision, giving him one more chance after a poor debut. He notes Zellhuber's size and reach advantages, good takedown defense, and training at Extreme Couture. He is concerned about Zellhuber's previous performance but believes it was a one-off. He expects Zellhuber to bounce back and outpoint Vannata.

"I do like Zell Huber in this match if I'll give him one more chance to win this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lando Vannata

Cody is unimpressed by Zellhuber's poor UFC debut and thinks Vannata's unorthodox style and grappling could cause problems. He notes Vannata is inconsistent but has the experience advantage. He picks Vannata as a dog.

"I'll be picking him for the purposes of this show"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lando Vannata

Connor agrees, noting that Vannata's losses are to top fighters and that Zellhuber's step up on the contender series was a difficult decision. He believes Vannata's experience and ability to pour in strikes on openings will be key.

"Yeah, I don't really understand that. I guess people are really being down on Lando because of the dejour dan fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Zellhuber's range and technical striking should pick apart Vannata, who struggles against crisp strikers. Vannata's unorthodox style can be countered by Zellhuber's length and clean shots. Zellhuber's takedown defense should be sufficient. Expect a knockout as Vannata has been clipped before. Zellhuber is a live underdog despite his last loss.

Zellhuber wins by knockout
"I think he'll be able to pick apart Landover nada from distance and I think he will possibly even find binocular here man."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lando Vannata

Paul echoes Cody, noting Zellhuber's terrible performance against Trey Ogden. He thinks Vannata's unorthodox striking and scrambling will overwhelm the inexperienced Zellhuber. He takes the plus money.

"I got to take that plus money Lando or just pass all together Lando's the dog I'm gonna take the dog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lando Vannata

The MMA Guru picks Lando Vannata as a plus-money underdog, citing his experience, tricky striking, and underrated grappling. He believes Vannata can outstrike Zellhuber, who had a lackluster UFC debut. He notes Zellhuber's youth and reach but thinks Vannata's veteran savvy and motivation will secure the win.

"I am going to side with the veteran in Lando vanata"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lando Vannata

Zane picks Vannata because he has been doing this much longer than Zellhuber, who still looks like he's learning. He notes that Vannata's experience against top fighters gives him an edge, and that Zellhuber's game lacks fundamental connectivity. He also mentions that Vannata has been wrestling lately.

"This is the time where even if you're not going to be in control, this is when you've just been doing this way more than tell Hoover who doesn't look like he's been doing this a lot."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Denise Gomes

Denise Gomes W

12-3
TKO (punches) R2 2:42
Fight 12 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Denise Gomes

Moneyline
FanDuel +132
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
FanDuel +1400
Decision
FanDuel +260

Bruna Brasil

Moneyline
BetRivers -143
KO/TKO
FanDuel +460
Submission
BetRivers +1050
Decision
BetRivers +170
Fighter Stats

Denise Gomes

Age26
Height5' 2"
Reach63.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Bruna Brasil

Age32
Height5' 6"
Reach65.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Denise Gomes

4.43SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.16SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
1.45TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Bruna Brasil

2.56SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
3.75SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
1.23TD Avg
52.0%TD Acc.
57.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Bruna Brasil

Angelo picks Bruna Brasil as the better striker overall, noting her creativity and power. However, he is hesitant because of the risk of a UFC debut freeze-up, citing a similar situation at UFC 287. He expects Bruna to be the better fighter but is not placing a bet due to the uncertainty of debut jitters.

"I'm going brother for the pick here but this would not be the first time we're gonna see a UFC debut freeze up in the moment"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bruna Brasil

Big Brady picks Bruna Brasil to win by decision. He believes Brasil is the better striker and has solid takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He criticizes Denise Gomes' striking defense and overall skill, though acknowledges her toughness. He is not laying heavy chalk on Brasil but expects her to get the job done.

"I like Brazil to win this fight is it going to be closed probably are the judge is going to get it wrong probably uh but I'm going to take Brazil to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bruna Brasil

Cody notes Brasil's reach and length advantage, and thinks her striking from the outside will be key. He acknowledges Gomes' path to victory is to make it ugly and wrestle, but believes Brasil's takedown defense and strength will hold up.

"I'm gonna take we're going to Brazil in this one"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bruna Brasil

Connor agrees, noting that Gomes is too low output and lacks urgency. He believes Brasil's kick-heavy offense and clinch work will create opportunities, and that Gomes' pressure is not backed by actual aggression.

"So taking Brazil, but like I said, I like the basics that both these women are working on."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bruna Brasil

Brasil's size, reach, and striking will keep Gomes at bay. Gomes is a brawler who struggles with range and can be reversed on the ground. Brasil's takedown defense and scrambling have improved. She should win by decision, using her reach to outpoint Gomes. The line may improve, but Brasil is the better fighter.

Brasil wins by decision
"I think she is far better than Gomez the far better Striker and again I see Gomez just walking into her punches."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Paul bet Gomes earlier at +200 and thinks the line movement is accurate. He acknowledges Brasil's advantages but notes Gomes' toughness and ability to make it a dogfight. He's not confident but took the plus money.

Bet Gomes at +200 earlier
"I scooped some Denise Gomez at plus 200 back on back on Sunday which I like"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bruna Brasil

The MMA Guru picks Bruna Brasil, impressed by her striking, especially her head kick KO on Contender Series. He notes her reach advantage and believes she can keep the fight at range and land heavy shots. He is not impressed by Gomes' UFC debut and thinks Brasil has more promise.

Potential KO/TKO but cautious due to division
"I am siding with Bruno Brazil to get the job done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bruna Brasil

Zane picks Brasil because she has volume and clinch striking, while Gomes is low output and just walks forward without throwing much. He notes that Brasil's kick-heavy game and pressure will allow her to light up Gomes, who lacks urgency and has poor wrestling.

"I got to pick Bruno Brazil in that fight. Just because Brazil has the volume and she has the clinch striking."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Gastón Bolaños

Gastón Bolaños W

8-5
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 13 VS Bantamweight Completed

Gastón Bolaños

Moneyline
Caesars -175
KO/TKO
BetRivers +143
Submission
BetRivers +1800
Decision
FanDuel +360

Aaron Phillips

Moneyline
FanDuel +160
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
BetRivers +700
Decision
FanDuel +500
Fighter Stats

Gastón Bolaños

Age33
Height5' 7"
Reach69"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Aaron Phillips

Age36
Height5' 9"
Reach71.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Gastón Bolaños

3.28SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
2.4SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.66TD Avg
100.0%TD Acc.
42.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Aaron Phillips

1.51SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.66SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
0.86TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
44.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Gastón Bolaños

Angelo picks Gastón Bolaños as the showcase fighter, noting his solid Muay Thai background and spinning back elbow finishes. He acknowledges variables: Bolaños lost 2 of his last 3 in Bellator, and Phillips hasn't fought in years. He expects a finish and is considering betting under 2.5 rounds or 'does not go the distance' prop, but no moneyline bet due to uncertainty.

under 2.5 rounds or does not go the distance prop considered
"the pick's gonna be Gaston for sure but probably no money line bet for me because of the variables"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gastón Bolaños

Big Brady picks Gastón Bolaños to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Bolaños' striking power, including a spinning back elbow, and notes his solid takedown defense. He is concerned about Bolaños' grappling but believes he will keep the fight standing. He also mentions Bolaños' training at AKA and the long layoff for Phillips.

first round knockout
"I'm gonna say he knocks out Aaron Phillips and I'm gonna say he does it in the first or second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gastón Bolaños

Cody is uncertain due to Phillips' three-year layoff. He thinks Bolaños has elite striking but questions his grappling. He picks Bolaños by knockout but calls it a pass.

"I guess I'll pick Gaston Bolanos Gaston Bolanos by knockout but it's like I don't know this one seems like as big of a pass for me as as humanly possible"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gastón Bolaños

Connor agrees, noting that Phillips is a disaster with no ability to control the fight. He emphasizes that Phillips is not physically strong and that Bolaños' physicality and power will be too much. He also mentions that Phillips' low kick vulnerability is a key factor.

"Yeah, it's just hard to imagine Phillips not getting hurt really bad."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gastón Bolaños

Bolaños has superior striking power and speed, and Phillips has poor striking defense. However, Bolaños is one-dimensional and making his UFC debut. Phillips has a BJJ black belt and could submit him if it goes to the ground. The price is steep, but Bolaños should land a knockout. The under 2.5 rounds is a better bet.

Under 2.5 rounds
"The spot that I'm looking at most in this matchup is actually the under two and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gastón Bolaños

Paul notes Bolaños' striking credentials but doubts his takedown defense. He thinks Phillips is a striker too, so it should be a stand-up fight. He leans Bolaños but has low confidence.

"I would say I belong us is the pick how high do we put them this week how high do we rate them this week I'm not fully certain quite yet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gastón Bolaños

The MMA Guru picks Gastón Bolaños, citing his dangerous striking pedigree and spinning attacks. He notes Phillips' inactivity and 0-3 UFC record, and believes Bolaños can stuff takedowns and land a knockout. He acknowledges the line is accurate but not a steal.

"I am going to take the kickboxer and Gaston Bolanos"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gastón Bolaños

Zane picks Bolaños because Phillips is a complete mess with no defensive discipline, poor wrestling, and a stance that makes him very vulnerable to low kicks. He notes that Bolaños is a great athlete with power and speed, and that Phillips' reckless style will lead to him getting hurt.

"I think he's probably going to crush Phillips' legs, especially at range."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Joselyne Edwards

Joselyne Edwards W

18-6
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 14 VS Catchweight (136.5 lb) Completed

Joselyne Edwards

Moneyline
BetRivers +116
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1200
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
BetRivers +210

Lucie Pudilová

Moneyline
FanDuel -134
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1200
Submission
BetRivers +650
Decision
BetWay +140
Fighter Stats

Joselyne Edwards

Age30
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Lucie Pudilová

Age31
Height5' 8"
Reach67"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Joselyne Edwards

4.61SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.24SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.43TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
61.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Lucie Pudilová

3.6SLpM
37.0%Str. Acc.
4.07SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.7TD Avg
31.0%TD Acc.
67.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Joselyne Edwards

Angelo picks Joselyne Edwards based on her range management and volume striking. He notes that Edwards is a good kickboxer who uses range well, and her 63% takedown defense should ward off Pudilová's takedown attempts. He expects a boring fight but sees Edwards winning with volume and distance control. He is super confident in her but probably won't include her in a parlay.

over 2.5 rounds at -300 considered for parlay
"I'm liking her here for the pick her range management should keep Lucy's power away"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joselyne Edwards

Big Brady picks Joselyne Edwards as a dog, citing her striking volume and improved takedown defense. He doubts Lucie Pudilová's wrestling, which she only showed in her last fight, and doesn't trust her as a favorite. He expects Edwards to win by decision, but is not betting on the fight.

"I'm gonna take the dog here uh in Joslin Edwards I think she's going to be levels above putulova on the feet just due to the volume"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

Cody notes Pudilová has improved her grappling and wrestling, and her aggression and volume should overwhelm Edwards. He thinks Edwards' pitter-patter striking won't be enough. He likes Pudilová by decision.

Pudilová by decision (+155); over 0.5 takedowns for Pudilová
"sign me up for Lucy poodle over by decision Foods by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

Connor picks Pudilová because he likes a newly controlled fighter who relies on her reach intelligently. He notes that Pudilová has takedowns and Edwards is a bad wrestler. He acknowledges that Edwards is powerful and the fight could get chaotic, but thinks Pudilová's experience in crazy fights will help.

"I think I'm gonna go with Putalova. I like a newly controlled fighter. I like a fighter who relies on her reach in like an intelligent way, i.e. jabbing."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

Pudilová's improved grappling and BJJ will be key against Edwards, who struggles when taken down. Edwards relies on kicks and distance, but Pudilová is a good enough striker to close the distance and get takedowns. Pudilová's submission defense and top control should allow her to grind out a decision. She has evolved her game since returning to the UFC.

"I'm going to go with Lucy porilova here and I think she grinds this fight out on route to a decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

Paul agrees, noting Pudilová's improved grappling and the fact that Edwards' wins are over low-level competition. He thinks Pudilová's aggression and takedowns will secure a decision.

Pudilová over 0.5 takedowns
"I think I think you would take putalova by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

The MMA Guru leans toward Lucie Pudilová, citing her improved grappling and overall development since her return to the UFC. He notes Edwards' striking volume but thinks Pudilová's X-factor of potentially using grappling could edge a close decision. He calls it a close fight and says the line is accurate.

"I will take Lucy putty lover to win this fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joselyne Edwards

Zane picks Edwards because he hasn't seen Pudilová handle physical pushback well. He believes Edwards is tough and strong, and will land the bigger shots. He acknowledges that Edwards doesn't do enough work continually but thinks she'll land more damaging shots.

"I'm gonna take Edwards. I think that I have yet to see Putalova really prove that she can handle her physical pushback very well and turn that into a win."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.