UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Jul 25, 2026 · Lightweight · Scheduled
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Age 30
Height 5' 8"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 28
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Ismael Bonfim
5.51 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
3.71 SApM
65.0% Str. Def.
1.06 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Axel Sola
4.07 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
5.29 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
2.22 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Ismael Bonfim
Moneyline
BetRivers +163
Axel Sola

No odds available

Ismael Bonfim - Fight History
SCHED vs Axel Sola
LOSS vs Chris Padilla
KO R2 4:30 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 64 of 109 58% 88 of 134 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:21
Ismael Bonfim 0 42 of 84 50% 47 of 89 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 17 of 31 54% 38 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:23
Ismael Bonfim 0 14 of 28 50% 18 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
2 Chris Padilla 0 47 of 78 60% 50 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Ismael Bonfim 0 28 of 56 50% 29 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 64 of 109 58% 33 of 60 10 of 15 21 of 34 43 of 83 6 of 6 15 of 20
Ismael Bonfim 42 of 84 50% 27 of 68 12 of 13 3 of 3 42 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 17 of 31 54% 8 of 13 4 of 6 5 of 12 15 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ismael Bonfim 14 of 28 50% 9 of 23 4 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Padilla 47 of 78 60% 25 of 47 6 of 9 16 of 22 28 of 54 4 of 4 15 of 20
Ismael Bonfim 28 of 56 50% 18 of 45 8 of 9 2 of 2 28 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim because he is better everywhere, but he acknowledges the concern about Ismael quitting on the stool in his last fight. He argues that Ismael took a massive shot to the face and was not fully there, so he is not a quitter. He expects Ismael to win but notes that Chris Padilla is tough and a live dog.

"I'm going to be on the Ismael Bonfim side. He's just better everywhere, and as long as he did not quit on that stool, we should be good."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady thinks Bonfim is the more skilled fighter with good boxing and volume, but worries about his durability as he has been finished in all five losses. He notes Padilla is durable and has heart but doesn't wrestle enough. He favors Bonfim's striking over 15 minutes and predicts a decision win, though he thinks a finish is more likely from Padilla.

decision
"I'm going to go Bonfi here to win a decision. I don't think he's finishing Padilla."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody picks Bonfim but is not confident. He notes Padilla's awkward movement and counter-striking, and Bonfim's one-dimensional style and questionable cardio. He thinks Bonfim's volume and aggression might win a decision, but it's a risky bet.

"I guess I got Bonfim, but it's another fight I really don't care for."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Lucrative James leans towards Chris Padilla, though he admits he doesn't have a great read on him. He notes Padilla's dangerous striking and ability to win close fights, while Ismael Bonfim is more predictable. He expects Padilla to land better shots, possibly cutting Bonfim, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Padilla's finishing upside via submission or doctor stoppage.

"I'm going to go with Chris Padilla. I'm not I haven't got a long breakdown for you guys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The host thinks Bonfim has underachieved recently while Padilla has overachieved, and expects a correction. Bonfim should dictate the pace, land more damage, and win on the scorecards in deep water.

"I think Bomb Fee has underachieved in his last few fights. And on the other side, I think Padilla has overachieved. And I think we'll see the course kind of correct itself here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Paul leans Bonfim but is not betting him. He thinks Bonfim's volume could be key, but Padilla's counter-striking and Bonfim's tendency to run into shots are concerns. He mentions a small shot on Padilla KO at plus 600.

"I'm not going to be letting Ismael Bonfim ruin my week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

The Guru picks Chris Padilla as a crafty underdog. He believes Padilla's experience, reach, and versatility (elbows, kicks, spinning attacks) will trouble Ismael Bonfim, who has struggled against gritty opponents. He expects a close decision win for Padilla, 29-28.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to go with Chris Padilla. I'm gonna take a crafty underdog of Chris Padilla here."
LOSS vs Nazim Sadykhov
KO R1 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ismael Bonfim 0 26 of 42 61% 26 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nazim Sadykhov 0 13 of 46 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ismael Bonfim 0 26 of 42 61% 26 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nazim Sadykhov 0 13 of 46 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ismael Bonfim 26 of 42 61% 14 of 29 5 of 5 7 of 8 24 of 39 2 of 3 0 of 0
Nazim Sadykhov 13 of 46 28% 9 of 35 2 of 7 2 of 4 12 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ismael Bonfim 26 of 42 61% 14 of 29 5 of 5 7 of 8 24 of 39 2 of 3 0 of 0
Nazim Sadykhov 13 of 46 28% 9 of 35 2 of 7 2 of 4 12 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ismael Bonfim vs. Nazim Sadykhov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-198), Sadykhov (+164)

Round 1
Hoping to making tonight a winning night for the family, the elder yet lighter Bonfim (20-4, 2-1 UFC) hits the cage. In a class battle of Brazil vs. Azerbaijan, “Marreta” squares off with Sadykhov (9-1-1, 2-0-1 UFC) in what could be a fascinating 155-pound affair. The styles presented by both men could result in some mighty, thrilling clashes before the dust settles, and referee Mark Smith has the best seat in the house. Doing his duties, Smith clocks the fighters in who are already mid-fist bump. They switch stances while looking for range, and Bonfim strikes first with a few punches and a low kick. Sadykhov has a head kick pound into the guard, and he kicks a few times and spins with a failed back fist. Bonfim loops a right hand around the raised block, and he lets Sadykhov wind up so he can blast him with a right hand and let Sadykhov go whizzing past him. Bonfim just misses with a speedy one-two, and he has a second impact off the shoulder. A third gets through, forcing Sadykhov to swing hard at him. Bonfim gets away with an eye poke, and Sadykhov whips a hook kick at him. Bonfim raps two right hands on the side of the melon, and Sadykhov takes them cleanly without overly seeming concerned. Bonfim lunges to connect with two punches, dancing away from a head kick. Bonfim’s one-two is money in the bank as he keeps drilling “Black Wolf” with it, and Sadykhov is tough but under serious fire. Sadykhov swing back with a vengeance, but his hurled strikes are largely coming up short. Bonfim surges forward with punches, bouncing Sadykhov off the wall and back. When Bonfim wraps a kick under the guard, he is able to slide away before Sadykhov can wind up with his own left hand response. Two kicks from Sadykhov are blocked, and a third hits Bonfim right in the eye and messes him up. Bonfim escapes, and Sadykhov rushes after him hitting him with hammers. A few big left hands from Sadykhov bust a cut open under his right eye, and Sadykhov uses the clinch to hang on to the bell.
Between rounds, Bonfim is appearing severely compromised from the head kick. Smith brings in the doctor after letting the corner and cutman do their business. Bonfim claims that he cannot see, and that is all a physician needs to hear to suggest a fight getting called off.
Bonfim is upset, as he says that he both can and can't see, with the ringside doctor saying it can't be both ways. Any complaints no longer matter, as Smith waves the fight off due to the advice of the physician.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sadykhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sadykhov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sadykhov

The Official Result
Nazim Sadykhov def. Ismael Bonfim R1 5:00 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim over Nazim Sadykhov, noting that while Sadykhov is talented, his wins have caveats (e.g., Evan Elder was beating him before a cut, Terrence McKinney was beating him before gassing). He believes Bonfim will stay busy with striking and may mix in takedowns, and that Bonfim won't gas or get cut like Sadykhov's previous opponents.

"I think Ishmael stays busy with the Striking may or may not work in his own takedown I am going to pick Ishmael bonfim here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady picks Bonfim by decision, noting he is the better striker with good boxing and defensive responsibility. Sadykhov has volume issues and was outlanded by Evan Elder. Bonfim has takedown defense to keep it standing and a good chin. Sadykhov may land a big shot but Bonfim has never been knocked out.

"I got Bon here I think he wins this fight and wins it by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Connor picks Ismael Bonfim, agreeing with Zane that Bonfim is more technical. He notes that Sadykhov is a brute with a shallow game who breaks down when out-techniqued. Connor highlights Bonfim's arrogance as a potential weakness but believes Sadykhov's lack of horsepower means Bonfim can successfully pressure and break him. He also notes that Sadykhov will give up the initiative if pressured, unlike Santini, which favors Bonfim.

Connor notes the odds: Bonfim opened at -153 and is now -192, Sadykhov opened at +117 and is now +172. He says the odds make sense but wouldn't get them much wider, as Bonfim has lost a fight like this before.
"I think Bonfiniem is really good, but I, you know, it's all, I guess it's all going off of, well, it's not all going off that one fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Lucrative James picks Ismael Bonfim to win by decision, but admits he does not have a strong read on this fight and needs to do more tape study. He sees Bonfim as the more technical striker with better leg kicks and a well-rounded game, while Sadykhov is a brawler with power and durability. He thinks Bonfim's experience and technicality will allow him to outpoint Sadykhov over three rounds, but acknowledges Sadykhov could land a big shot or win a war. He is not confident enough to recommend a bet.

"I'm going to pick bom them in this fight I think that he's going to win a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Ismael Bonfim

Bonfim has the experience advantage and more to bring to the table. As long as Sadykhov doesn't land a big power shot, Bonfim dictates pace and pressure and wins on the scorecards.

"I believe that Bonfim will showcase that experience advantage here against Nazim Sadykhov... Bonfim should be able to dictate the pace and pressure of this fight and end up winning it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The MMA Guru picks Ismael Bonfim over Nazim Sadykhov, noting Bonfim's slickness and more options. He criticizes Sadykhov for letting fights get scrappy and lacking ability to force things. He believes Bonfim's time off has allowed improvement and he will deliver, though he jokes about Bonfim's reaction to his brother's potential loss.

"I'm gonna go with ishmail bum furm here over nazim sadikov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Zane picks Ismael Bonfim, citing Bonfim's superior technical skills in striking, wrestling, and grappling compared to Sadykhov. He notes that Sadykhov's game breaks down when faced with better technique, as he only wants to fight one way. Zane acknowledges Bonfim's tendency to make arrogant decisions and give up positions, but believes Sadykhov lacks the horsepower to capitalize like Santini did. He also points out that Sadykhov is more of an opportunist on the ground, not a constrictor, reducing the risk of Bonfim getting caught.

Zane notes the odds: Bonfim opened at -153 and is now -192, Sadykhov opened at +117 and is now +172. He says the odds make sense but wouldn't get them much wider, as Bonfim has lost a fight like this before.
"I think I'll take Bonfiniem too, but yeah, and that is different between him."
WIN vs Vinc Pichel
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ismael Bonfim 0 111 of 216 51% 112 of 217 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Vinc Pichel 0 61 of 142 42% 64 of 147 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ismael Bonfim 0 34 of 66 51% 34 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Vinc Pichel 0 18 of 47 38% 18 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:03
2 Ismael Bonfim 0 36 of 75 48% 36 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinc Pichel 0 22 of 54 40% 22 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Ismael Bonfim 0 41 of 75 54% 42 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Vinc Pichel 0 21 of 41 51% 24 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ismael Bonfim 111 of 216 51% 80 of 176 13 of 20 18 of 20 107 of 209 2 of 4 2 of 3
Vinc Pichel 61 of 142 42% 26 of 93 14 of 24 21 of 25 60 of 140 0 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ismael Bonfim 34 of 66 51% 19 of 47 2 of 4 13 of 15 34 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 18 of 47 38% 5 of 29 5 of 10 8 of 8 18 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ismael Bonfim 36 of 75 48% 29 of 66 4 of 6 3 of 3 36 of 74 0 of 1 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 22 of 54 40% 9 of 37 3 of 5 10 of 12 22 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ismael Bonfim 41 of 75 54% 32 of 63 7 of 10 2 of 2 37 of 69 2 of 3 2 of 3
Vinc Pichel 21 of 41 51% 12 of 27 6 of 9 3 of 5 20 of 39 0 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo is confident in Bonfim, citing his youth, power, and aggressive style against the 41-year-old Pichel who hasn't fought in two years. He references the trend of older fighters getting finished at UFC Vegas 91. He advises betting early before odds move.

"Ishmael bonfim is the pick and if you want to bet on him you need to do it now before the odds take over"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady highlights Bonfim's youth and striking advantage, noting Pichel's age (41) and long layoff as major concerns. He believes Bonfim will stuff takedowns and dominate on the feet, leading to a one-sided decision. He acknowledges Pichel's submission threat but doubts he can implement it.

"I'm taking Bonfim to win this fight by a pretty one-sided decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody picks Bonfim, citing his sharp striking, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Pichel is 41, inactive, and has no submission wins. Cody expects Bonfim to win, possibly by decision or late finish.

"I just feel like Bonfim is way sharper..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Daniel Vreeland picks Bonfim by decision, citing his youth, volume striking, and experience despite his age. He notes that Pichel is durable and has low mileage for his age, but Bonfim's boxing and takedown defense should allow him to win minutes on the feet. He believes Bonfim's finishing equity is overrated and that a decision is likely.

Bonfim by decision
"bonim by decision I think he's got some value"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Bonfim stumbled in his last fight against Benoit Saint-Denis but is expected to have a better showing against the 41-year-old Pichel, who has been two years away from the cage. Bonfim is the slicker striker and can stay competitive in grappling if Pichel takes it there. His striking will start to chip away at Pichel and allow him to find a finish in the second or third round.

finish in second or third round
"I think bomfim is the Slicker Striker and can stay in competitive in the grappling R should Pelle look to take it there but I think that bomb F Slicker striking approach will start to C CCH up to Pelle …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Paul picks Bonfim, highlighting his explosive striking and takedown defense. He notes Pichel's inactivity and age are concerns. Paul expects Bonfim to win but acknowledges Pichel's grit could make it competitive.

"I think he's good... he looked really good in the contender series..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The MMA Guru confidently picks Ismael Bonfim, predicting a first-round TKO. He expects Bonfim to push Pichel against the cage and bait him with feints, while noting Pichel's age (41) and over two years of inactivity as key factors. He also mentions Bonfim's good jiu-jitsu and the favorable matchup.

TKO in the first round
"ishmail Bon ferm's gonna go out there and get a TKO in the first round"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:48 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Benoît Saint Denis 0 14 of 24 58% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Ismael Bonfim 0 13 of 33 39% 35 of 58 2 of 7 28% 2 0 2:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Benoît Saint Denis 0 14 of 24 58% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Ismael Bonfim 0 13 of 33 39% 35 of 58 2 of 7 28% 2 0 2:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Benoît Saint Denis 14 of 24 58% 9 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 18 5 of 5 1 of 1
Ismael Bonfim 13 of 33 39% 3 of 18 10 of 15 0 of 0 11 of 29 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Benoît Saint Denis 14 of 24 58% 9 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 18 5 of 5 1 of 1
Ismael Bonfim 13 of 33 39% 3 of 18 10 of 15 0 of 0 11 of 29 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ismael Bonfim vs. Benoit St. Denis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-295), St. Denis (+245)

Round 1
From one group of finishers to another the UFC goes, this time at lightweight. Even though Bonfim (19-3, 1-0 UFC) has gone the distance in three of his last four, that is an aberration for the Brazilian had earned 12 of his previous 15 wins via stoppage. Looking to match him and then some is France’s St. Denis (10-1, 1 NC; 2-1 UFC), with 10 victories all inside the distance. Referee Herb Dean dons his proverbial hard hat before the two fighters get after it, and they start things off with a glove touch. The two immediately start gunning for one another, as St. Denis lines up several kicks to the body and head. Bonfim responds with huge counters, and he points to his body and urges St. Denis to come on keep kicking him. St. Denis obliges, hammering the ribs with kick after kick, and Bonfim blocks some of them and comes out swinging, but his big hooks miss. St. Denis backs him away with a swinging high kick, and he ducks a massive overhand right to secure a takedown and dump Bonfim on his back. Bonfim appears frustrated, and as he makes faces, St. Denis slices straight into full mount. The Frenchman works the body, and as he gets a little complacent, Bonfim sweeps him and turns him over. This results in a scramble that forces them both upright, and St. Denis kicks the body again and smacks Bonfim with a left hook. Bonfim bites down on his mouthpiece and flings a massive right hook, and St. Denis takes it flush and presses forward. Bonfim intercepts him with a stern knee, and St. Denis is stung but he still has the wherewithal to dive after a single-leg takedown. Bonfim sprawls and aims a knee at the chin, and St. Denis leans back just in the nick of time. St. Denis advances and lets loose two kicks before shooting for a double, and he changes to a single. When that too fails, he elects to switch to a body lock to toss Bonfim down, but Bonfim keeps his balance by leaning his gloves on the mat. St. Denis uses his body weight to lower Bonfim to the floor, and he takes the back when Bonfim rolls. St. Denis secures both hooks with a minute to spare, and he starts fishing for a choke. Bonfim hand-fights well to defend from a choke getting set up, but St. Denis clamps onto a neck crank as he turns it to the side.
Bonfim wriggles out his head just enough, until the forearm of his opponent crushes down on his jaw. The rear-naked choke grip is not under the chin, so St. Denis decides to simply crank on the face with the full extent of his power. The pain maneuver is enough to force a surrender from the surging Bonfim,
who bids farewell to a 13-fight win streak thanks to the vice-like squeeze of “God of War.” The victorious Frenchman retains his 100% finish rate, and he now celebrates nine subs in his 11 triumphs.

The Official Result
Benoit St. Denis def. Ismael Bonfim R1 4:48 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim due to his incredible power and impressive debut. However, he advises caution because Bonfim is still unproven and Saint Denis is a tough opponent with good wrestling. He notes Bonfim's boxing and BJJ but questions his cardio and takedown defense. He calls it a low confidence pick.

"the pick here is going to be a bonfin because of his incredible power and Saint Denny gets hit but I advise all of you to be very very careful here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady picks Ismael Bonfim to win by third-round knockout. He believes Bonfim is the much better striker with power, and though his striking defense is a liability, Saint Denis is hittable and has been finished before. He notes Bonfim's takedown defense has improved, so Saint Denis won't be able to grapple. He expects Bonfim to land repeatedly and get a late finish.

third round knockout
"I like Bond theme here I think Bon FEMA actually probably knocks out Saint Denis and I think it's probably late in the fight second or third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody is high on Bonfim, calling him the real deal with good movement, power, accuracy, and solid takedown defense. He notes Bonfim's wins over tough competition on Contender Series and Terrence McKinney. He sees Saint Denis as an all-action brawler who is hittable and has a good chin but will be overwhelmed by Bonfim's precision. Cody expects Bonfim to win by knockout or clear decision.

Fight of the Night candidate
"I think bomb theme is going to dish it out and Benoit saying to me for as tough as he is is gonna take it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Daniel confidently picks Bonfim, citing his polished boxing, feints, timing, and well-rounded game. He notes Saint Denis is tough and durable but his striking is less polished, and Bonfim is comfortable on the ground as well. He believes the striking gap is significant and that Bonfim covers Saint Denis across the board. He missed the opening line (-250) and won't bet at -310, but expects Bonfim to win.

missed the line at -250; Bonfim minus 310
"I missed the line but he is my pick win this fight and I'm not sure if I even want to call it a dog or pass situation because I just think stylistically he has them covered"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)

James says he has not taped this fight yet and does not have an opinion. He notes that Benoît Saint Denis is tough but may be outmatched, and that Ismael Bonfim is favored on the feet. He suggests the over might be an angle but needs to do more tape.

over 2.5 rounds, fight goes to decision
"I do not have an opinion because I haven't taped this yet."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Paul thinks the line is a bit out of hand but still picks Bonfim. He notes Saint Denis is capable of making it a war and has value at +260, but Bonfim's skills are superior. Paul mentions the judges can be unpredictable, but Bonfim should win if it's close.

"I think Ben wants to knee is capable of at least making this like an absolute War plus 260"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The Guru picks Ismael Bonfim, calling it a no-brainer. He highlights Bonfim's impressive win over Terence McKinney via flying knee KO and his strong grappling and takedown defense. He predicts Bonfim will stuff Saint Denis's takedowns and get a second-round TKO, as Saint Denis will hesitate and get broken down.

second round TKO
"I'm gonna go with Ishmael bun firm over Benoit Saint Denise here... another no-brainer in my opinion"
KO (flying knee) R2 2:17 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ismael Bonfim 1 34 of 49 69% 38 of 53 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:48
Terrance McKinney 0 14 of 49 28% 20 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ismael Bonfim 0 17 of 22 77% 21 of 26 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:47
Terrance McKinney 0 7 of 19 36% 13 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:11
2 Ismael Bonfim 1 17 of 27 62% 17 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Terrance McKinney 0 7 of 30 23% 7 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ismael Bonfim 34 of 49 69% 16 of 30 16 of 17 2 of 2 24 of 39 10 of 10 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 14 of 49 28% 10 of 43 4 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 45 0 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ismael Bonfim 17 of 22 77% 5 of 10 10 of 10 2 of 2 8 of 13 9 of 9 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 7 of 19 36% 4 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 16 0 of 1 2 of 2
2 Ismael Bonfim 17 of 27 62% 11 of 20 6 of 7 0 of 0 16 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 7 of 30 23% 6 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ismael Bonfim vs. Terrance McKinney
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-125), Bonfim (+105)

Round 1
An all-action lightweight tilt is on deck now, as the first of two debuting Brazilian brothers walks to the cage. Bonfim (18-3, 0-0 UFC), signed off the 2022 season of the Contender Series, throws down with the ultraviolent McKinney (13-4, 3-1 UFC), who has never before competed longer than 10 minutes and 43 seconds. Referee Osiris Maia will need to be ready to step in at a moment’s notice, and he takes a deep breath as the two fighters touch ‘em up. McKinney whips a kick high, and as that is blocked, he steps in with a knee that is not. McKinney fires off another head kick that slaps off the guard, and his left leg is very busy early with front kicks and kicks to all angles. McKinney strides in with another step-in knee, and he nearly meets Bonfim with it before Bonfim can make him pay with an overhand right. Bonfim measures his big right hand, but he cannot get inside as McKinney is kicking at him repeatedly. McKinney plants the ball of his foot on the sternum, and he stings Bonfim with a straight right but strikes back with a heavy right hand. McKinney sprawls instinctively as a level change into a takedown rushes at him, and Bonfim’s momentum forces them to both hit the mat for a moment. “T.Wrecks” bounces right back up, and his mouthpiece goes flying. They clinch up when standing, and as soon as they separate, McKinney motions that he would like his gumshield back. Maia gives it back, and when they reset, Bonfim blasts the American with a right hand. McKinney changes levels this time, in search of a takedown after getting stung, and they clinch up for some time. McKinney ties up one leg and ends up dragging Bonfim down, and he tries to claim the back when he goes down. The Brazilian slams him on the face with elbows that are very close to 12-6, until he spins around and into a guillotine choke setup for McKinney. When there is no choke, McKinney stands up, and he takes a knee to the thigh before getting wrenched down to the mat. McKinney leaps back up only to succumb to a mat return, and once more he climbs to his feet. Bonfim looks for a single, and releases it to let fly a head kick. The blocked kick puts Bonfim on his back, and McKinney leaps on top but cannot do anything before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim

Round 2
The second round begins with an aggressive Bonfim looking to push the action, and he strikes first with a quick right hand on the outside. McKinney lets his hands go, and Bonfim is more accurate and rocks him with a short combination. McKinney dives into a takedown try, and Bonfim keeps his balance in part thanks to a fence grab. McKinney lets go and backs up with the cage at his back, and he sits back, prepared to counter. Bonfim does not blitz forward or do anything reckless, instead waiting for McKinney to throw so he can counter him instead. This lull lasts until McKinney works a right hand to the body, and Bonfim responds with a left to the body and right to the head. Bonfim scores a big left to the ribcage, and he ducks as a high kick soars over his head. McKinney looks to catch an oncoming Bonfim with a knee, and Bonfim replies with a two-punch combination that ejects McKinney’s mouthpiece once again. Seeing that McKinney is stung and throwing back wildly, Bonfim backs off to find a better angle.
Like a bolt of lightning, Bonfim leaps in the air with a double flying knee. His left knee connects as cleanly as it possibly could on the side of McKinney’s head and neck – this is sort of a good thing, as McKinney’s mouthpiece is on the floor – and McKinney is immediately unconscious. In true highlight reel fashion, Bonfim lands comfortably while McKinney falls lifelessly to the ground on his face.
Incredible! In his UFC debut, Bonfim just completely annihilated a highly touted prospect with a vicious knockout that is an instant contender for “Knockout of the Year.” That’s one heck of a way to introduce yourself to the bosses, as the crowd goes wild for their home country fighter's spectacular finish.

The Official Result
Ismael Bonfim def. Terrance McKinney R2 2:17 via KO (Flying Knee)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks McKinney to win by first-round knockout, noting McKinney's incredible power and finishing ability. He acknowledges Bonfim has patched his submission defense and is well-rounded, but McKinney hits like a truck and has good wrestling. He thinks Bonfim will have to walk through fire and if the fight gets past one and a half rounds, Bonfim likely finishes McKinney. He's not betting but expects violence.

first round knockout, under 1.5 rounds
"I'm gonna take McKinney here to win in the first two minutes and 30 seconds and I'm gonna take in the win by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody picks Ismael Bonfim as a dog, noting his cardio, durability, and well-rounded skills. He says McKinney is explosive but fades under adversity and has poor durability. He thinks Bonfim can weather the early storm and take over as McKinney gasses. He mentions Bonfim's win over Nariman Abbasov as a sign of his quality. He says this is his second underdog pick.

mentions McKinney's tendency to gas; says Bonfim has good cardio
"I could take bomb female actually Terence McKinney is extremely talented I think we all know that about it the guy is very fast very athletic massively explosive huge huge power"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Connor also picks Bonfim, citing McKinney's inability to fight past the first round. He notes Bonfim is a clean puncher with solid grappling and has never been knocked out. McKinney's recklessness and poor cardio are key factors.

"I think I'm going to pick Ismael Bonfim."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Paul picks Terrance McKinney, noting his explosiveness and power. He says McKinney will likely finish early, but acknowledges the risk of him gassing. He says he's not betting this fight but picks McKinney. He mentions McKinney's under machine reputation and that the under 1.5 rounds is juiced.

mentions under 1.5 rounds at -225; says McKinney is an under machine
"I'll pick Terence McKinney but yeah this is more of a yeah they're bet McKinney pre-flop or you wait for McKinney to to blow his load"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The Guru picks McKinney but acknowledges Bonfim is dangerous. He trusts McKinney's weird wiry speed and power in the early round, noting how he nearly put away Dober quickly. McKinney has a wrestling background that is often overlooked. The Guru predicts a first-round finish, possibly by submission after hurting Bonfim on the feet. However, he warns that if the fight goes past the first round without Bonfim being hurt, Bonfim may take over.

first round finish
"I got a side with that first round finishing ability of Terence McKinney but I will say if this goes past the first round and the bonfirm hasn't been hurt ... switch your money up and go on bomb firm"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Zane picks Bonfim because McKinney burns out quickly if he doesn't get an early finish. Bonfim is durable, solid, and has never been knocked out. He notes McKinney's style is unsustainable and he loses after the first round. Bonfim's experience and ability to survive should lead to a win.

"If he can survive for five minutes against Terrence McKinney as a newcomer, there's a real good chance that he will have enough left in the tank to win."
Axel Sola - Fight History
SCHED vs Ismael Bonfim
LOSS vs Mason Jones
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mason Jones 0 110 of 236 46% 123 of 251 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Axel Sola 0 65 of 135 48% 68 of 141 3 of 7 42% 0 0 2:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mason Jones 0 18 of 46 39% 27 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Axel Sola 0 15 of 32 46% 18 of 38 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:45
2 Mason Jones 0 34 of 73 46% 35 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Axel Sola 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
3 Mason Jones 0 58 of 117 49% 61 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Axel Sola 0 28 of 52 53% 28 of 52 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mason Jones 110 of 236 46% 76 of 193 29 of 37 5 of 6 83 of 193 26 of 42 1 of 1
Axel Sola 65 of 135 48% 49 of 116 16 of 19 0 of 0 61 of 125 4 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mason Jones 18 of 46 39% 12 of 39 4 of 5 2 of 2 16 of 40 2 of 6 0 of 0
Axel Sola 15 of 32 46% 13 of 28 2 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 28 1 of 4 0 of 0
2 Mason Jones 34 of 73 46% 26 of 62 5 of 8 3 of 3 30 of 68 4 of 5 0 of 0
Axel Sola 22 of 51 43% 14 of 42 8 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mason Jones 58 of 117 49% 38 of 92 20 of 24 0 of 1 37 of 85 20 of 31 1 of 1
Axel Sola 28 of 52 53% 22 of 46 6 of 6 0 of 0 25 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mason Jones

Angelo picks Mason Jones because of his superior wrestling and aggression. He notes Axel Sola is the cleaner striker but Mason is an absolute dog with far better takedowns. He already bet half a unit on Mason at -125 and expects the line to move further.

bet 0.5 units at -125; expects line to move
"I'm picking Mason Jones. I like Mason Jones here. ... I actually bet on him. I threw a half a unit on him at minus 125."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Mason Jones

Big Brady picks Mason Jones but is not confident due to Jones's awful fight IQ. He notes that Jones has all the tools (BJJ black belt, judo black belt, good striking) but often refuses to grapple when he has an advantage. He thinks Jones should use his grappling against Axel Sola, who has decent power but poor cardio and can be taken down. He predicts a decision win for Jones, but warns that Jones is hittable and could get rocked.

Mason Jones by decision
"I got to go Jones here. And I'm not in the business of really betting on this guy all too much because some of the fight IQ mistakes this guy makes, it's kind of sickening."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mason Jones

Cody picks Jones, citing his well-rounded game and Sola's tendency to fade. He sees Jones winning a competitive decision.

"I'm going to take Mason Jones."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mason Jones

Connor picks Mason Jones as well, emphasizing that Jones is a full-tilt swarming fighter who can afford to be reckless because his aggression leads into his wrestling. He notes that Sola struggled with McKee's size but that Jones is tougher and more physically resilient. Connor expects an absolute war and a beating if Jones wins.

"I think I'm going to take Jones as well, but it's an interesting fight. It's a good fight. Yeah. Should be fun. Yeah. So it does when it'll be in a really cool fashion. I know that. Yeah. And if …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mason Jones

Daniel picks Mason Jones, believing his relentless pressure and ability to break opponents will overcome Sola's early striking success. He thinks Sola's karate style will falter as Jones walks him down and takes over in later rounds. He acknowledges Sola's power but trusts Jones's durability and cardio.

"I think Mason Jones has the style required to put that pressure on Sola. ... I really do think that if Mason can eat these shots and not be too compromised, stay in this guy's face, start to back him …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mason Jones

Daniel Vreeland picks Mason Jones to win by breaking Axel Sola in the latter part of the fight. He believes Jones' pressure and pace will overwhelm Sola, who fades after the first few minutes. He expects Jones to take Sola's best shots and then take over.

"I'm picking Mason Jones. I'm betting Mason Jones. I think he comes out here, extends his UFC win streak, and hands the very talented Axel Sola his first octagon defeat."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mason Jones

Jones is consistent, has home advantage, and his relentless pace will wear down Sola. Sola is more technical but fades as the fight goes on. Jones should win by decision or late stoppage. The only risk is a flash KO, but Jones is durable.

Under 2.5 rounds is interesting; Jones likely finishes or gets finished.
"Mason Jones is the only money line bet that I have got uh on this card."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mason Jones

James picks Mason Jones but is not confident, as he admits he may have underrated Axel Sola. He thinks Jones' UFC experience and will to win will carry him, but Sola's fight IQ and size are concerns. He predicts a decision win for Jones.

"I'm going to pick Mason Jones anyway for this one. But it's not a strong pick and I want to do more tape study before I actually finalize my prediction. But Mason Jones via decision will be my pick."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Axel Sola

The host picks Axel Sola by decision but is hesitant. He believes Sola's athleticism, reach, and clean striking will expose Jones's lack of speed and durability. He expects Sola to keep the fight standing and outpoint Jones. However, he admits being a Mason Jones fan and acknowledges Jones's toughness.

"I'm going to go Solola and Solola by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mason Jones

Paul thinks Jones' wrestling, cardio, and durability will outlast Sola, who has been exposed in the past. He expects Jones to win a decision or late stoppage.

"Mason Jones minus 125. Sure, why not? Doesn't seem like doesn't seem too out of..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mason Jones

The MMA Guru picks Mason Jones to win by finish in the second or third round. He notes Jones is more well-rounded, physical, and durable, with a judo background and good grappling. He expects Jones to use his durability and cardio advantage, and find a TKO up against the cage with knees and elbows as the fight slows down.

finish in the second or third round
"I'm going to go with Mason Jones getting this one done by third round finish or late second round finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mason Jones

Zane leans toward Mason Jones because Jones has a simpler, more natural style that he sticks to, while Sola has more potential but is less complete. Zane notes that Sola gave up takedowns under pressure in pre-UFC bouts, and Jones's wrestling and aggression could exploit that. He acknowledges Sola's crafty striking and adjustments against McKee but trusts Jones's bruiser mode.

"I'm leaning Jones. I don't think Jones is necessarily like better than Sola in lots of different metrics, but I think he has a style that it's much simpler and more natural for him to just stick to it."
WIN vs Rhys McKee
KO R3 2:02 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rhys McKee 1 45 of 105 42% 52 of 114 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:05
Axel Sola 0 33 of 135 24% 48 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rhys McKee 0 9 of 25 36% 13 of 29 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:11
Axel Sola 0 6 of 39 15% 15 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rhys McKee 0 18 of 49 36% 19 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
Axel Sola 0 16 of 59 27% 20 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rhys McKee 1 18 of 31 58% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Axel Sola 0 11 of 37 29% 13 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rhys McKee 45 of 105 42% 40 of 94 5 of 11 0 of 0 36 of 94 5 of 7 4 of 4
Axel Sola 33 of 135 24% 27 of 128 6 of 7 0 of 0 23 of 116 10 of 19 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rhys McKee 9 of 25 36% 9 of 22 0 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
Axel Sola 6 of 39 15% 6 of 38 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 35 1 of 4 0 of 0
2 Rhys McKee 18 of 49 36% 16 of 46 2 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 44 3 of 5 0 of 0
Axel Sola 16 of 59 27% 10 of 53 6 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 50 6 of 9 0 of 0
3 Rhys McKee 18 of 31 58% 15 of 26 3 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 26 1 of 1 4 of 4
Axel Sola 11 of 37 29% 11 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 31 3 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rhys McKee

Angelo leans towards Rhys McKee as an underdog, noting his experience against good fighters and his length. He acknowledges Axel Sola's speed and power but questions his level of competition. He also factors in Sola stepping up on short notice and potential octagon jitters. He expects the line to tighten and possibly flip.

"I'm going to lean Reese McKe here and we'll see how good the Jonas Brother is."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rhys McKee

Big Brady picks Rhys McKee despite his poor striking defense, citing his toughness and durability. He notes Sola is moving up in weight and is hittable. He believes McKee's size and doggedness will carry him to a decision win, his first decision victory in 21 fights.

McKee by decision
"I'm going to take Reese McKe to win his very first decision. 21 fights for Reese McKe. Zero decision wins. I kind of think that changes here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Axel Sola

Connor picks Sola to keep it interesting, noting that Sola has a fighter's mentality and can be more aggressive when needed. He thinks Sola's physicality is at least as good as Alex Morono, who easily handled McKee. However, he admits that Sola often has a feeling-out period and may let McKee into the fight.

"I'll take Sola just to keep it interesting."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Axel Sola

The host acknowledges McKee's volume approach but believes Sola has a better jab and overall MMA game. He expects Sola to take the fight to the ground and find opportune moments to control and damage McKee en route to a decision victory.

"I think Solah has a better jab and overall MMA game, which will include him taking this fight to the ground and finding opportune moments to control and damage McKe on route to a decision victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rhys McKee

The Guru picks Rhys McKee, believing Axel Sola's regional fights showed vulnerabilities against crafty veterans. He argues McKee is superior at range and in distance management, and Sola won't be able to impose his ground game. He predicts a 29-28 decision for McKee, with McKee winning rounds one and three or two and three.

"I'm going to go with Reese McKe in this fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rhys McKee

Zane picks McKee, taking a chance on the veteran. He notes that Sola tends to start slow and get pushed around, and that McKee's momentum-building style could take over if he survives the early rounds. He acknowledges that McKee is physically underwhelming and often loses at the UFC level, but believes Sola may not be aggressive enough to put him away.

"I think I'm going to take the chance on Reese McKee. It seems like a, it shouldn't, you know, I expect Sola will be a favorite and it, Reese McKee struggles at this level are something that I don't ever …"