Career Averages - Valter Walker
Career Averages - Thomas Petersen
Valter Walker - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valter Walker | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Louie Sutherland | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valter Walker | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Louie Sutherland | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valter Walker | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Louie Sutherland | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valter Walker | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Louie Sutherland | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Walker (-310), Sutherland (+250)
Round 1
Tonight could be considered moving night at the UFC’s muddled heavyweight division, with four of the 13 encounters booked in the weightiest category observed by the promotion. Having landed three heel hooks in a row, Walker (14-1, 3-1 UFC) wants little more than to make that four straight—a record among anyone to set foot in the Octagon—and to do so will have to hand Sutherland (10-3, 0-0 UFC) his first defeat inside the distance. The heavy hitters with win rates before the final bell at 70% or higher collide under the watchful eye of referee Kerry Hatley, bumping fists prior to engaging.
Walker slides his way forward to throw a low kick, and Sutherland fires back with his own body kick. Walker keeps slinging kicks including one up the middle, and Sutherland turns his hips into one that lands with an audible thud. Sutherland sits down on a crisp right hand as Walker is coming in, shaking him up but not stopping him from completing a double-leg takedown. Sutherland shells up on his back as he takes punches, and
Walker rolls for his patented heel hook. The Brit defends the leglock attempt, spinning all the way around to alleviate some pressure. The Russian by way of Brazil follows him the entire rotation, completing the submission while “The Vanilla Gorilla” is still turning. With the heel hook locked in all the way, Sutherland has no choice but to surrender for the first time in his career.
Just like that, “The Foot Hunter” has now racked up four straight submissions of this type in the Octagon, tied for the most for any fighter in company history along with Rousimar Palhares while extending his own record for the most in a row. Just four wins into his UFC tenure and the GOR MMA fighter is already in the top five for the most submissions performed in UFC heavyweight history. Only Stefan Struve (six), Alexey Oleynik (seven) and Frank Mir (eight) have landed more. Most impressive.
The Official Result
Valter Walker def. Louie Sutherland R1 1:24 via Submission (Heel Hook)
Angelo picks Valter Walker, noting his physical transformation and three consecutive heel hook finishes in the UFC. He believes Walker's wrestling and submission threat will be too much for Luis Saldana, who appears to have lost muscle mass after coming off steroids. Angelo thinks the minus 300 line is reasonable given Saldana's diminished physicality.
Big Brady confidently picks Valter Walker, citing his improvements, size (6'6", 27 years old), and elite wrestling and submission skills, particularly heel hooks. He dismisses Louie Sutherland as a bottom-tier heavyweight with no standout attributes. Brady expects Walker to get an early takedown and secure a first-round submission, making it four in a row.
Cody picks Valter Walker, noting that Sutherland has never been finished but has faced lower-level competition. He believes Walker's wrestling and submission game will be too much, especially if he focuses on takedowns rather than diving for heel hooks. Cody suggests a Walker submission prop at plus 140 as a better bet than the heavy favorite line.
Connor picks Walker, expecting him to shoot takedowns and grapple. He notes that Sutherland is a fearless brawler but has no answer for wrestling, as anyone who has wrestled him has succeeded. Connor also highlights Walker's recent streak of heel hook submissions, suggesting Sutherland is vulnerable to that. He acknowledges Walker is not good but believes he is a bad matchup for Sutherland.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Walker's submission skills, especially his heel hooks, but is hesitant to lay -335 on a guy who lost to Lucas Brzeski. He thinks Walker's grappling will be too much for Sutherland, who is a brawler with questionable conditioning. He predicts Walker will win, possibly by submission, but calls it a 'pure pick' rather than a betting recommendation.
Lucrative James picks Valter Walker confidently, noting his size advantage and ability to get takedowns. He references Sutherland's recent loss to Slim Trabelsi via grappling, and believes Walker can replicate that with his heel hook threat. He expects Walker to win by decision or submission.
The host considers Sutherland a mediocre opponent who could find success if he avoids Walker's early heel hook danger, but he doesn't think Sutherland can avoid it. He predicts Walker will add another heel hook submission win.
Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Sutherland's physique and past steroid use are concerns. He notes that Sutherland looked deflated at UFC weigh-ins and may not be as durable without enhancements. Paul believes Walker's youth and improvement will lead to a win, likely by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Valter Walker by submission, specifically a leg-lock or heel hook in the first round. He believes Walker is being given layup opponents and that Luis Saldivar (the opponent mentioned, though the transcript says Luis Saldivar but the fight is Valter Walker vs Louie Sutherland; likely a mix-up in the transcript) is not good and looks different from his Tapology picture. He expects Walker to go for the easiest path to victory and get a quick submission.
Zane agrees, noting that even if Walker doesn't get another heel hook, he will be an annoying wrestler and grinder. He describes Sutherland as a 'meathead to the core' who will struggle with Walker's grappling. Zane also points out that Walker's losses have come against fighters who are not 'heavyweight enough' to be overwhelmed by his style.
Angelo picks Valter Walker, noting his wrestling and heel hook expertise. He believes Valter should win by takedown and submission, but expresses concern about Valter's striking and potential to quit if takedowns are defended. He has low confidence in Mohammed Usman's skill set, calling him not a great fighter. He advises caution due to Valter's shaky performance in his last fight.
Cody picks Usman but is not confident, noting Walker's submission threat. He believes Usman's wrestling and durability can neutralize Walker, but expects a close fight. He suggests passing or taking the sub prop on Walker.
Lucrative James picks Valter Walker, highlighting his signature heel hook and the fact that Mohammed Usman is the type of fighter to get caught in one. He notes Walker's three consecutive heel hook wins in the UFC and believes Usman's grappling defense is not elite. He also mentions Walker's improved physique and cardio, and expects a round one submission. He likes the under 2.5 rounds (-135) and Walker by submission (+175).
Manpreet picks Walker to win by submission but is not confident in the moneyline at -315. He notes Walker's heel hook threat but also his vulnerability if the submission fails. He suggests Usman at plus 265 is worth consideration if he can avoid early danger. He prefers the submission prop at +175.
Paul picks Usman as a dog, citing Walker's one-dimensional game of fishing for heel hooks. He notes Usman's wrestling defense and jab, and believes he can stuff takedowns and win a decision. He suggests the over and Usman by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Valter Walker over Mohammed Usman, citing Walker's recent leg lock submissions and Usman's tentative, scared fighting style. He believes Walker will march forward and secure a heel hook submission in the first round. He notes Usman is more of an athlete than a fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Valter Walker | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Valter Walker | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Valter Walker | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Valter Walker | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo thinks Valter Walker can close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where his grappling is a problem for Kennedy Nzechukwu. He notes Kennedy can be gunshy and has lost staring contests, while Walker has transformed his body and has back-to-back heel hook finishes. He plans to bet on Walker, monitoring the line movement to find the peak.
Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Valter Walker to take Kennedy down early and win the first round, but questions Walker's cardio and striking. He believes Walker will gas out, allowing Kennedy to take over in the second and third rounds. He picks Kennedy by second-round knockout.
Connor agrees, noting that Walker has no craft to his stand-up game and relies on a single trick (heel hooks). He thinks Nzechukwu is a better wrestler and grappler by virtue of being a former light heavyweight, and should be able to avoid the submission and win comfortably.
The host expects Nzechukwu to make it 3-0 at heavyweight by stuffing Walker's takedowns and outworking him on the feet. He notes that Nzechukwu is not a title contender but should win a decision. The pick is based on Nzechukwu's ability to keep the fight standing and outpoint Walker.
The MMA Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing Valter Walker's poor debut against Lucas Brzeski where he looked lost on the feet and had sloppy takedown entries. He notes Nzechukwu's ability to stuff takedowns, referencing his fight with Paul Craig where he shut down 16 attempts. He expects Nzechukwu to survive a first round of danger, then piece up Walker on the feet for a second or third round TKO.
Zane thinks Nzechukwu looked confident and aggressive in his last fight against Lukasz Brzeski, and as a former light heavyweight, he should have better wrestling and grappling than most heavyweights. He believes Walker's goofy heel-hook game won't work against a good wrestler, and Nzechukwu should be able to beat him standing or on the ground.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valter Walker | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valter Walker | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valter Walker | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valter Walker | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo hesitantly picks Valter Walker, despite his hatred for Walker's embarrassing UFC debut. He reasons that Walker has good takedowns and Mayes is useless when taken down. However, he notes Walker's striking is awful and his cardio is suspect, so if Mayes can survive early, he could win. He says he cannot bet Walker at -165.
Big Brady picks Walker by decision, citing Mayes' poor takedown defense (58%) and inability to get up once taken down. He notes Mayes has a striking advantage but lacks power to hurt Walker. Walker should get takedowns easily and control Mayes on the ground, though he lacks finishing ability.
Expecting a slow, grueling fight. Walker will likely keep Mayes in defensive positions against the cage or on the ground, using his grappling-heavy approach to nullify Mayes' offense. Walker wins on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Valter Walker over Don'Tale Mayes, reasoning that Mayes has a history of losing and his wins are against low-level heavyweights. He acknowledges Walker's poor UFC debut but attributes it to circumstances, and believes Walker's regional success and potential will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valter Walker | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 20 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 3:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valter Walker | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Junior Tafa | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 20 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 3:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valter Walker | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Junior Tafa | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valter Walker | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Junior Tafa | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tafa (-130), Walker (+110)
Round 1
The prelims close with a heavyweight smash-‘em-up derby where one of these two heavy hitters will likely wind up face down before it is all over. All but one of Tafa’s (5-2, 1-2 UFC) pro outings have ended by knockout, while Walker (11-1, 0-1 UFC) is no stranger to bludgeoning another man unconscious. Keeping his head on a swivel will be referee Steve Perceval, as feet and fists are sure to soar in moments. Before that happens, there is a sporting glove touch from the competitors. They are uncharacteristically tentative to begin the fight, with only one leg kick landing for the first 30 seconds. Tafa walks through the kick and busts Walker in the face, stumbling Walker against the cage. Tafa continues throwing hands, stinging Walker again, and Walker tries to slow things down and pursue a takedown. On his second effort, Walker manages to wrench “The Juggernaut” to the canvas. Tafa scoots to the fence and wall-walks to stand up, and Tafa grabs the fence to fight off a mat return. Walker scoops his legs out beneath him and dumps Tafa to the floor, and Tafa again grabs the cage in hopes of standing. Perceval is on top of it, warning Tafa again. Walker gets in a single left hand while trying to keep Tafa on the mat, hoping to settle in half guard. Walker grinds from on top with occasional short punches, and the crowd tries to energize Tafa with a local chant. Tafa remains pinned to the floor with a heavy man above him, and Perceval asks for more activity. Tafa clings to the neck to keep Walker stuck, or perhaps force a standup, and Walker breaks out of it and jams down an elbow. Commentators Daniel Cormier and Dominick Cruz heavily criticize Tafa’s complete inability and seeming lack of knowledge to get back to his feet, and
Walker changes things up by rolling for a sudden heel hook. Tafa flops to his back and screams, and as soon as he turns to his side, Perceval waves the fight off while shouting “Stop!”
Tafa is enraged, going to slap Walker in the face after the fight concludes, claiming that he did not tap out. His shout out was considered a verbal submission by Perceval—the right call, with screams specifically considered verbal tapouts in the Unified Rules—and officials pull the upset Tafa away and force him back to his corner. Tafa is not about to drop it, continuing to shout at the victorious Walker and flip him the middle finger during the official announcement. No amount of protest from Tafa will change the result, which will stand as a submission.
The Official Result
Valter Walker def. Junior Tafa R1 4:56 via Verbal Submission (Heel Hook)
Angelo picks Valter Walker to win via wrestling, believing he can get takedowns and control Junior Tafa, who has shown poor takedown defense. However, he talks himself out of betting on Walker because his last fight was an embarrassing cardio failure, and the odds are not plus money. He calls Walker 'absolutely horrible' but thinks he can win if he shows up prepared.
Big Brady picks Junior Tafa to win by second-round knockout. He is not high on either fighter but thinks Tafa has the advantage on the feet. He notes Valter Walker can wrestle and will likely get takedowns in the first round, but Walker gasses out early and looked terrible in his last fight. He expects Walker to tire in the second round, allowing Tafa to stuff takedowns and land a knockout. He says he would not bet this fight with a 10-foot pole, especially laying chalk on Tafa.
Cody believes Walker's wrestling will be the difference, as Tafa has poor takedown defense and no get-up game. He notes Walker looked improved physically and should learn from his debut loss. Cody expects Walker to take Tafa down and control him, possibly earning a submission or decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Valter Walker to win a decision, expecting him to look better than his debut. He notes that Tafa has been taken down and lost in the past, and that Walker's grappling could be the difference. Vreeland acknowledges the volatility and that Tafa has finishing upside, but leans toward the underdog Walker at plus money.
The host loves Walker as a plus-115 underdog, citing Tafa's poor takedown defense and ground game. He expects Walker to take Tafa down and grind him out, possibly finishing by ground and pound or submission. He calls the line a gift and is mystified by it.
Paul agrees, noting that everyone who has tried to take Tafa down has succeeded, and that Walker's best skill is wrestling. He warns that if Walker stands and trades, he'll get knocked out, but expects him to stick to the game plan. Paul also mentions Walker's improved physique and the need to see weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa over Valter Walker. He acknowledges Walker's grappling but calls him a dumb fighter who didn't shoot takedowns against Lucas Brzeski despite getting them every time. He believes Tafa's takedown defense, shown against Mohammed Usman, will hold up. He predicts Tafa will KO Walker, calling Walker a large middleweight rather than a true heavyweight. He rants about heavyweight fighters being brainless.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 33 of 67 | 49% | 56 of 101 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 1 | 7:19 |
| Valter Walker | 0 | 58 of 102 | 56% | 135 of 200 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 21 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Valter Walker | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 52 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 17 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Valter Walker | 0 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 39 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 3 | Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 3:05 |
| Valter Walker | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 44 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Łukasz Brzeski | 33 of 67 | 49% | 19 of 50 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 23 of 53 | 2 of 5 | 8 of 9 |
| Valter Walker | 58 of 102 | 56% | 27 of 70 | 16 of 17 | 15 of 15 | 55 of 96 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Łukasz Brzeski | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 7 |
| Valter Walker | 16 of 27 | 59% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 8 | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Łukasz Brzeski | 16 of 35 | 45% | 9 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 31 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Valter Walker | 32 of 56 | 57% | 19 of 42 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 52 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Łukasz Brzeski | 5 of 14 | 35% | 1 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Valter Walker | 10 of 19 | 52% | 4 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Valter Walker with high confidence, noting that Walker is massive (6'6") and a wrestler who should dominate by coming forward and ragdolling Łukasz Brzeski. He acknowledges that Walker's striking is miserable and he eats shots, but believes heavyweights are not used to a 6'6" Brazilian charging at them with wrestling. He expects the UFC to fast-track Walker.
Big Brady picks Valter Walker by decision, despite being unimpressed with Walker. He notes that Walker is huge, a solid wrestler, and can get fights to the mat. He cannot pick Łukasz Brzeski to win any UFC fight due to poor takedown defense and cardio. He expects a grinding decision with no finish.
Cody also picks Walker, noting that Brzeski has been taken down 8 times by Karl Williams. He thinks Walker's wrestling and size advantage will be key, and that if Walker sticks to takedowns and top control, he should win. Cody is wary of Walker's UFC debut but believes the matchup favors him.
Walker is a more complete fighter than his brother Johnny, with solid striking and underrated wrestling. He can take opponents down and grind them out. Brzeski is on a losing streak and has struggled against grapplers. Walker's size and strength advantage will allow him to control the fight and win by decision.
Paul picks Walker but is hesitant due to question marks. He likes Walker's size, athleticism, and grappling, and notes Brzeski has been taken down repeatedly by wrestlers like Karl Williams. Paul thinks Walker can take Brzeski down, make him carry weight, and gas him out. He acknowledges Walker is unproven but sees a clear path to victory via wrestling and top control.
The host identifies Walker as Johnny Walker's brother, noting he is 6'6", 26 years old, with an 81.5-inch reach. He highlights Walker's dynamic striking (front kicks, head kicks, spinning backfists) and good double-leg takedowns. He recalls a clip of Walker grappling with Johnny Walker, showing good sweeps and butterfly guard. He acknowledges Walker has a chin but is confident in his skills.
Thomas Petersen - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guilherme Pat | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thomas Petersen | 1 | 28 of 41 | 68% | 164 of 199 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 8:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guilherme Pat | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 28 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 | |
| 2 | Guilherme Pat | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 | |
| 3 | Guilherme Pat | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thomas Petersen | 1 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 109 of 131 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guilherme Pat | 17 of 31 | 54% | 9 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 28 of 41 | 68% | 22 of 33 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guilherme Pat | 8 of 11 | 72% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 4 of 9 | 44% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Guilherme Pat | 7 of 17 | 41% | 4 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Guilherme Pat | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 16 of 20 | 80% | 15 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 16 |
Angelo picks Thomas Petersen despite acknowledging his poor striking, because Petersen is a strong wrestler with good top control. He notes that Guilherme Pat has poor takedown defense and can be held against the cage. Angelo believes Petersen can absorb Pat's strikes, close the distance, and grind out a win on the ground. He cautions that picks are not bets but thinks Petersen can get the takedowns.
Big Brady picks Thomas Petersen but with low confidence. He notes Petersen has good wrestling but is inconsistent. He thinks Petersen needs to wrestle hard for 15 minutes to win, and that Pat is a solid striker but can be controlled. He expects a greasy decision win for Petersen.
Cody picks Petersen, expecting him to use his wrestling to control Pat on the ground. He notes Petersen's wrestling background and Pat's inexperience, and believes Petersen will secure a decision or late finish.
Connor leans toward Peterson, citing his reproducible approach and ability to beat better athletes. He notes Peterson is a reasonable wrestler and better than Fry, which could neutralize Pat. However, he admits Pat could come in much better and that Peterson has been knocked out before, making it a low-confidence pick.
James hesitantly picks Thomas Petersen, predicting he will get outskilled early but come back to win via finish in round three or a close decision. He notes Pat's superior athleticism and footwork but criticizes his lack of finishing instinct and tendency to gas. He believes Petersen's wrestling, grit, and size advantage will wear on Pat as the fight progresses. He admits he needs to watch more tape and is not fully confident.
The host picks Petersen, citing his wrestling, cardio, and top control as kryptonite to Pat's power. He notes Pat's lackluster UFC debut and reliance on power, while Petersen has better grappling and gas tank. However, he has mediocre confidence due to the possibility of Pat landing a big shot early. He predicts Petersen by decision.
Paul leans towards Petersen, noting his wrestling advantage and Pat's struggles against cage pressure. He expects Petersen to grind out a win, though he's not fully confident.
The MMA Guru picks Thomas Petersen, citing his crafty wrestling and size advantage. He notes that Guilherme Pat was held against the cage by a lesser opponent and that Petersen has good boxing and grappling. He seems somewhat uncertain but leans towards Petersen.
Zane picks Pat but is hesitant, noting that Pat lands bigger shots but gets mashed on the cage. He sees Pat as the better athlete and believes he could come in improved, but acknowledges Peterson's reproducible approach and wrestling advantage. The fight is likely a slog with Pat winning rounds on the feet but losing time in clinch.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 2 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 33 of 61 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 3:03 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 41 of 62 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 1 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 15 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 22 of 27 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 1 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 31 of 54 | 57% | 25 of 46 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 29 | 9 of 12 | 9 of 13 |
| Thomas Petersen | 16 of 35 | 45% | 7 of 25 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 13 of 20 | 65% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 10 |
| Thomas Petersen | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 14 of 28 | 50% | 8 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 19 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 1 |
| Thomas Petersen | 13 of 28 | 46% | 7 of 21 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Thomas Petersen | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, believing he is better everywhere except for pure grit. He thinks Vitor can find a finish, but acknowledges the risk of Thomas Petersen grinding out a win if he gets top position. He is undecided on betting due to Vitor's lack of true heavyweight size and the possibility of being controlled on the ground.
Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by second-round knockout. He notes Petrino has filled out at heavyweight and put on muscle, and believes he will win because many heavyweights are not great. He thinks Petersen is more skilled than shown but won't outwrestle or outstrike Petrino. Brady leans toward a knockout, saying Petrino will touch Petersen's chin.
Cody picks Petersen as well, noting Petrino's history of underperforming as a favorite. He highlights Petrino's low volume and poor wrestling, while Petersen is a better wrestler and throws more volume. He expects a close fight but sees value in the underdog.
Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino by KO, but is not confident due to Petrino's chin issues and the -310 price. He notes Petrino's power advantage and Petersen's poor striking defense. He acknowledges Petersen's wrestling and cardio could grind out a decision, but sees a knockout as most likely. He mentions he might bet against his pick with a Petersen decision longshot.
Manpreet picks Petersen as an underdog, believing that if Petersen can avoid Petrino's early knockout power, his wrestling and cardio will take over. He notes Petersen's dominant performance against Mayes and expects him to wear Petrino down, potentially finishing in round three. He loves the plus 260 line and also considers the round three prop.
Paul picks Petersen as a dog, citing Petrino's poor wrestling and low volume. He notes Petersen's wrestling credentials and durability, and believes he can outwork Petrino. He calls it a 'dog or pass' fight.
The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino over Thomas Petersen, citing Petrino's size, power, and grappling skills. He notes Petersen is out of shape and Petrino showed good jiu-jitsu in his last fight. He predicts a TKO finish in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 105 of 166 | 9 of 9 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 13:49 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 12 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:34 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 36 of 69 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:27 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 22 of 29 | 75% | 57 of 78 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:48 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Petersen | 28 of 51 | 54% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 45 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 3 of 11 | 27% | 1 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Petersen | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Thomas Petersen | 5 of 19 | 26% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 16 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Thomas Petersen | 22 of 29 | 75% | 22 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 28 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo sees this as a straightforward matchup: if Thomas Petersen gets takedowns, he wins; if he stays on the feet too long, he gets knocked out. He notes that Don'Tale Mayes has struggled with grapplers recently, and Petersen took down his last opponent easily. He believes Petersen's wrestling will be the deciding factor.
Big Brady is confident in Thomas Petersen, expecting his best performance to date. He highlights Petersen's wrestling background and vicious ground and pound, noting that Mayes has poor takedown defense (57%) and looks bad when taken down, citing examples like Valter Walker's heel hook and Shamil Gaz's control. He questions Mayes's motivation, pointing out his social media silence and poor shape at weigh-ins. He predicts Petersen will take Mayes down and finish him by TKO in round two.
Connor picks Petersen because he has learned a jab, tries hard, knows how to hit takedowns, and can be a work rate heavyweight. He notes that Mayes has the tools but not the game, and is one of the finest examples of MMA brain thinking, having absorbed nothing over a long career. He also mentions that Mayes got insta-heel hooked by a Volterbacher, which should not happen.
Mayes is an average heavyweight with a 5-5 UFC record. Petersen can dictate the pace with his developing striking and mix in takedowns. I expect Petersen to grind out a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes as an underdog, despite acknowledging Mayes' poor record. He believes Mayes is more athletic on the feet, has a 7-inch reach advantage, and better cardio. He predicts Mayes will stuff takedowns and eventually get a TKO in round two, possibly after Petersen fails a takedown and Mayes gains top position.
Zane agrees that Petersen should win, noting that Mayes has the size, power, and speed but does not have the game. He says Mayes has not improved and has absorbed nothing over a long career. He also points out that Petersen doesn't have the foot speed to deal with actual athletes, but he has a jab, tries hard, and can hit takedowns, which should be enough to beat Mayes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | 1 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Gaziev | 1 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | 14 of 32 | 43% | 9 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 19 of 34 | 55% | 4 of 18 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Gaziev | 14 of 32 | 43% | 9 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 19 of 34 | 55% | 4 of 18 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Action moves to the heavyweight division, where Gaziev (13-1, 2-1 UFC) squares off with a former Legacy Fighting Alliance champion in Petersen (9-2, 1-1 UFC). Herzog administers he law and order. Customary glove touch gets them started. Gaziev takes the center and fires off two punches. Short elbow on the inside from Gaziev. Petersen answers with a low kick, then another. They trade right hands. Body kick from Gaziev. Petersen paws with his jab, then fires one to the body. Short right hook finds the mark for Gaziev, who plods forward against the southpaw. Petersen completes a takedown but fails to corral his opponent on the mat. Gaziev easily gets back to his feet and connects with two straight rights. Chopping right hand from Gaziev.
They circle in the center of the cage, and Gaziev connects with a crushing right hook that floors the American where he stands. No follow-up shots are required
.
The Official Result
Shamil Gaziev def. Thomas Petersen—TKO (Punch) 3:12 R1
Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev, believing he is the better fighter despite a loss to Rozenstruik. He notes that Gaziev has improved his cardio and bounced back with a decision win. He thinks Gaziev's power and physicality will be too much for Thomas Petersen, who is solid but not spectacular. He includes Gaziev in a parlay with Mike Davis.
Big Brady thinks Shamil Gaziev has awful cardio but will likely knock out Thomas Petersen early. He notes Gaziev has much more power and Petersen is hitable. Brady expects a first-round knockout, but says if the fight extends it will be 'greasy'. He is staying away from betting Gaziev at -330 and might live bet Petersen.
Petersen's wrestling background will allow him to keep the fight upright and use his jab and volume to outwork Gaziev, who struggles when he can't secure takedowns or control against the cage. Petersen is a plus-300 underdog and is expected to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Shamil Gaziev to win by third-round finish. He calls Gaziev 'The Blob' and says he pushes forward and is there to win. He thinks Gaziev will start to pick up the pace as the fight goes on and get a late finish over Thomas Petersen, who he calls a 'fat idiot' with unimpressive skills.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 63 of 185 | 34% | 63 of 185 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 76 of 138 | 55% | 98 of 164 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 22 of 41 | 53% | 24 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 17 of 60 | 28% | 17 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 25 of 45 | 55% | 30 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 3 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 24 of 75 | 32% | 24 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 29 of 52 | 55% | 44 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Petersen | 63 of 185 | 34% | 44 of 151 | 19 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 61 of 181 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 76 of 138 | 55% | 58 of 117 | 13 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 72 of 134 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Petersen | 22 of 50 | 44% | 18 of 44 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 46 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 22 of 41 | 53% | 13 of 32 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Thomas Petersen | 17 of 60 | 28% | 9 of 46 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 25 of 45 | 55% | 20 of 37 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Thomas Petersen | 24 of 75 | 32% | 17 of 61 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 29 of 52 | 55% | 25 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Mohammed Usman because he is the larger, more physically imposing fighter with a brick for a head and decent power. He notes that neither fighter is very good or entertaining, and that Usman's takedown defense should hold up against Petersen's wrestling. However, he explicitly says he cannot bet on low-level heavyweight fights, so this is a lean with no stake.
Cody picks Petersen, noting his youth (29) and wrestling pedigree. He thinks if Petersen can get takedowns, he can control Usman. He admits Usman has better striking and cardio but believes Petersen's southpaw stance and sophomore improvement could be factors. He calls it a dogger pass situation and sides with the underdog.
Daniel Vreeland picks Mohammed Usman, noting his improvements and ability to last three rounds. He believes Usman can defend takedowns and tire out Petersen, who gasses when his takedown game fails. Vreeland expects Usman to take over late in the fight.
Petersen is a slight dog at +110. He has a wrestling-heavy approach but needs to improve his striking to avoid being picked apart. Usman is not as crisp a striker as Jamal Pogues, which could allow Petersen to have more success with his wrestling. Petersen's pressure and pace should wear down Usman around the 6-minute mark, leading to a decision win. However, I need to see improvements in Petersen's striking before I'm confident enough to invest heavily.
Paul picks Usman, citing his wrestling background, takedown defense (never taken down in UFC), and better striking. He thinks Petersen's wrestling won't be effective and that Usman will edge a decision or get a late finish. He calls the line very playable.
The MMA Guru picks Mohammed Usman over Thomas Petersen, calling Petersen 'garbage' and a 'fat dum dum'. He notes Usman has knockout power and is more technical, with better conditioning and athleticism. He dismisses Petersen's size and recent loss to Jamal Poges, concluding Usman should win easily.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Pogues | 0 | 58 of 86 | 67% | 116 of 153 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 65 of 124 | 52% | 66 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamal Pogues | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 46 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 24 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jamal Pogues | 0 | 22 of 32 | 68% | 40 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 22 of 35 | 62% | 22 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jamal Pogues | 0 | 27 of 37 | 72% | 30 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 19 of 46 | 41% | 20 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Pogues | 58 of 86 | 67% | 26 of 50 | 30 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 54 of 81 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 65 of 124 | 52% | 43 of 94 | 15 of 23 | 7 of 7 | 56 of 111 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamal Pogues | 9 of 17 | 52% | 5 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 24 of 43 | 55% | 16 of 30 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 23 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamal Pogues | 22 of 32 | 68% | 15 of 23 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 22 of 35 | 62% | 15 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 26 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamal Pogues | 27 of 37 | 72% | 6 of 14 | 19 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 19 of 46 | 41% | 12 of 37 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Thomas Petersen, the prospect, over Jamal Pogues. He notes that the UFC often sets up fights to test prospects, and Petersen's wrestling should be good enough to get Pogues to the ground. He acknowledges Petersen's striking is poor but believes his wrestling will carry him. He also mentions that Pogues lacks one-punch knockout power to turn the fight around.
Big Brady picks Thomas Petersen to win by TKO ground and pound within the first two rounds. He notes Petersen is the bigger, stronger fighter with a wrestling background and vicious ground and pound, while Jamal Pogues has looked lackluster at heavyweight and has been taken down by smaller fighters. The main concern is Petersen's cardio, as he was knocked out in the third round in his only fight that went that far, but Brady expects an early finish.
Cody leans to Petersen, but is wary of Pogues' potential if he makes weight. He notes Pogues' weight issues and poor performance against Parkin. He thinks Petersen's wrestling and cardio could be decisive, but he's not confident.
Petersen has good forward pressure and wrestling, but his gas tank is a concern after gassing in his only loss. Pogues has been to four straight decisions and may struggle to implement his striking or grappling. The host leans slightly to Petersen, expecting him to grind out a decision win if he avoids big shots and manages his cardio.
Paul picks Petersen by submission, taking a small sprinkle at +750. He notes Petersen's wrestling and submission win last time, and Pogues' weight and cardio issues. He thinks the prop is overpriced.
The MMA Guru picks Jamal Pogues over Thomas Petersen, calling both fighters 'fat middleweights' and an 'embarrassment to the sport.' He believes Pogues has the takedown defense to avoid being taken down by Petersen, and if it stays standing, Pogues has better boxing. He dismisses Petersen's win on the Contender Series as beating a 'gelatinous blob.'
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