UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Aug 29, 2026 · Flyweight · Scheduled
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Age 24
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 28
Height 5' 5"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Rei Tsuruya
2.24 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
2.01 SApM
42.0% Str. Def.
5.06 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
1.9 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kevin Borjas
3.96 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
5.64 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Rei Tsuruya - Fight History
SCHED vs Kevin Borjas
CANCEL vs Jesus Aguilar
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 18, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

AJ picks Tsuruya, expecting him to dominate with high-level jiu-jitsu and positional grappling. He notes Aguilar is tough but basic, and Tsuruya's submission threat is real. AJ worries about Tsuruya's cardio but thinks he will either win by submission or decision, with a preference for a rear-naked choke finish.

Rei Tsuruya wins by submission
"I think Rey Suruya showcases his high-level jiu-jitsu, gets to dominant positions, probably controls Aguilar, but does he sub up Aguilar? Thinking about it."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Angelo picks Rei Tsuruya because he is a very good wrestler with great control and cardio. He notes that Luis Gurule just fought a full 15-minute war and is flying across the world, which will not help his cardio. Rei's only loss is to the current world champion Joshua Van.

"I think Ryuru wins this fight. I am surprised to see that the odds are kind of settled. His only loss is to the current world champion."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 24, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Angelo picks Rei Tsuruya, trusting his wrestling control and ability to get the fight to the ground. He notes that Luis Gurule has been taken down many times before and still won, but he doesn't think that will happen here. He also questions Gurule's ability to perform after a short turnaround and travel. He believes Tsuruya's top control and cardio will be the difference.

"I trust Ry's control. I trust Ry's ability to get this fight to the ground, to slow the pace, and to stay on top."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2026 (fight day)
Rei Tsuruya

Angelo picks Rei Tsuruya (referred to as Ryura), citing his high-level wrestling and control. He believes Luis Guruel (Jesus Aguilar) will fade due to two weight cuts in two weeks and jet lag, and that Tsuruya's takedowns and top control will be decisive. He notes Tsuruya may not score extremely well but is a decent lineup play.

decent for lineup; takedown potential
"Ry is the pick. $8,800 isn't extremely affordable, but he may well be worth it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Big Brady picks Rei Tsuruya by decision, noting Aguilar took the fight on short notice after fighting a week ago and absorbing over 100 significant strikes. He believes Tsuruya's wrestling and grappling are superior, and he will attempt many takedowns, similar to the Pichinin fight. He acknowledges Aguilar would be a live dog with a full camp but the circumstances favor Tsuruya.

"Give me Ray Seruya to win the fight. I'll take him to win it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Cody picks Tsuruya, citing his youth, back-take specialist skills, and the favorable circumstances. He notes that Tsuruya was supposed to fight Jesus Aguilar, who beat Gurule, but now faces a short-notice opponent who just fought two weeks ago and is moving up to 135. Cody believes Tsuruya's takedowns and control will be effective, and Gurule's fatigue and travel will work against him.

Tsuruya by submission; fight goes to decision or late submission
"I got Ray Seru. Just everything kind of favors him in terms of the outside noise and then the matchup itself."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jesus Aguilar

Levi picks the underdog Aguilar, noting his anti-wrestling and ability to scramble. He thinks Tsuruya's standup is limited and Aguilar can sprawl-and-brawl to a decision. However, he acknowledges many 'ifs' regarding Aguilar's health and travel.

Jesus Aguilar by decision mentioned as possible; odds: Tsuruya -220, Aguilar +185
"I think I'm going to go with the upset here. ... I'm gonna pick Luis Garle to come out here and get this upset and squeak by a hard-fought split decision."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Jacob picks Rei because he is a relentless wrestler with a lifetime of wrestling experience. He expects Rei to get early takedowns and that Luis's defensive wrestling will drain his gas tank, leading to late takedowns for Rei. He compares it to Rei's fight against Carlos Hernandez.

"I like Ray in this one. He's a very good wrestler. He's like a wrestling his whole life."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 23, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Lucrative James picks Rei Tsuruya confidently, citing his slick grappling, unorthodox takedowns, and youth (23). He notes Jesus Aguilar's poor takedown defense and believes Tsuruya's creativity and scrambling will lead to a submission. He mentions Tsuruya's training with Cejudo and improvement since his loss to Joshua Van.

Rei Tsuruya via submission
"I got Ray Serua to win this fight. I got him to win this fight via submission as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 25, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jesus Aguilar

The host picks Aguilar on short notice, believing his cardio and scrambling ability will overcome Tsuruya's grappling. He notes Aguilar's experience against good grapplers and his tendency to not settle for bad positions. He expects Aguilar to defend takedowns early, work back to his feet, and land more damage as the fight goes into deeper waters.

"I'm going to go with Gerule to come in here on short notice and pull off the upside against Raid Seruya by staying more busy and landing more damage while defending enough of the grappling onslaught of Suya."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jesus Aguilar

The host picks Jesus Aguilar (referred to as 'Guru') over Rei Tsuruya, noting Aguilar's recent win and good grappling defense. He expects Aguilar to stop takedowns and outwork Tsuruya on the feet, winning on the scorecards in the later rounds.

decision victory
"I think Gru has shown good enough grappling defense in the past and he's the better striker here. Look for him to stop the most of the takedowns early and then really put together a better body of work through …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Paul picks Tsuruya, noting his ability to get takedowns and control positions. He mentions Gurule's recent war and short notice, and that Tsuruya is a young prospect. Paul believes Tsuruya can find a submission or at least control the fight.

Tsuruya by submission
"I think Ry having a little bit of time off add some uh wrinkles to his game. like I think you know he got four taked downs against Joshua Van... I think he's going to be able to get takedowns …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Jesus Aguilar

The Guru picks Jesus Aguilar over Ray Borgia (Rei Tsuruya), favoring Aguilar's experience and aggressive striking. He doubts Borgia's ability to implement his grappling due to limited striking, and believes Aguilar can stuff takedowns and overwhelm Borgia on the feet. He notes Aguilar's submission threat as a bonus.

"I'm going to go Jesus Aguilar to win this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

The MMA Guru picks Rei Tsuruya to win by submission. He notes that Tsuruya is an elite freestyle wrestler with good grappling, and despite Aguilar's dangerous guillotine, Tsuruya is crafty enough to avoid those positions. He believes Tsuruya will get a submission, possibly similar to how Tatsuru Taira submitted Aguilar from a guillotine attempt.

"I'm going to be picking Suya to win by submission."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

The Guru believes Tsuruya's relentless grappling and fast start will win the first two rounds at a high clip. He notes Tsuruya's takedown volume and scrambling are excellent, while Aguilar has good cardio and could take the third round but likely loses a decision. He thinks Tsuruya wins 29-28 or 30-27.

goes to decision
"I think Seruya probably takes it at least 29-28 possibly 30-27."
SCHED vs Luis Gurule
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Luis Gurule vs. Rei Tsuruya
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tsuruya (-220); Gurule (+180)

Round 1
Gurule (11-3; 1-3 UFC), just two weeks removed from his first UFC win, looks to build on that momentum as he steps up on short notice against Tsuruya (10-1; 1-1 UFC), who was last in action over a year ago against now-champ Josh Van and most now rebound from that setback. The habitual flyweights have agreed to meet at 135 pounds here, and Marc Goddard is the referee. Tsuruya refuses the glove touch, and his southpaw stance against Gurule’s orthodox attack leads to immediate jostling of the lead hands. A few awkward, glancing exchanges result, but Tsuruya’s advantages in height and reach are stark. He lands a hard left that buckles Gurule’s legs momentarily, and he presses his advantage. He can’t land any more clean strikes, but hustles the American to the canvas, where he gradually moves to take back control. Gurule halts his positional advance, and Tsuruya punishes him with a brutal stream of ground punches that have Goddard looking on closely. Gurule survives and shells up, but when he tries to stand, Tsuruya hoists him, slams him back to the ground and takes back mount.
Tsuruya sinks a body triangle and starts fishing for a choke. He gets a neck crank and applies torque, and it’s enough: Gurule is forced to tap and Goddard is there for the save.
Impressive work from Rei Tsuruya to bounce back from his first professional loss in dominant fashion.

The Official Result
Rei Tsuruya def. Luis Gurule R1 3:19 via Submission (Neck Crank)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

AJ is confident in Rei Tsuruya, citing a clear grappling edge over Luis Gurule, who is a short-notice replacement. He notes that Gurule was dropped multiple times by Jesus Aguilar, whom Tsuruya was originally scheduled to fight. AJ expects Tsuruya to take Gurule's back and secure a rear-naked choke submission, as Tsuruya is a hyper-elite grappler with only one pro loss to Joshua Van.

Rei Tsuruya by submission +300 mentioned as a favorite prop; moneyline at -240
"I think Ray Seruya has a hyper elite ground game that's going to be on display here and odds are he's going to get Garle's back and he's probably going to end up sinking in that rear naked choke."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

AJ is confident Tsuruya will out-grapple Gurule, citing his high-level grappling, takedowns, and jiu-jitsu. He notes Tsuruya's only loss is to Joshua Van and compares him to a 'great value Tatsuro Taira'. He predicts Tsuruya will hit takedowns, control position, and win by decision or submission, specifically a rear naked choke in the first or second round.

Tsuruya submission at +275; Tsuruya decision at +160; Tsuruya as parlay piece
"I think this is a Ray Borg fight where he really can shine. I think that he's going to be able to out-grapple Luis Gurule. ... I think Ray is going to be able to get a submission here. I …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Connor picks Rei Tsuruya, noting Gurule is not fast, dynamic, or powerful for flyweight, and cannot create separation. Tsuruya is faster and can impose his wrestling game. Gurule is also on short notice.

"Tsuruya is faster, knows exactly what he needs to do, and gets to impose his wrestling game."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Zane picks Rei Tsuruya because he is a strong, determined wrestler who gave Joshua Van a hard fight. Luis Gurule is a meat-and-potatoes flyweight who struggles against athletic opponents willing to push pace. Tsuruya is faster and knows exactly what he needs to do.

Odds mentioned: Tsuruya -240, Gurule +205
"Tsuruya is the pick. It is a bad style matchup, plus Gurule is flying across the world on short notice without a camp."
LOSS vs Joshua Van
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joshua Van 0 59 of 97 60% 127 of 169 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Rei Tsuruya 0 32 of 84 38% 47 of 104 4 of 21 19% 0 0 3:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joshua Van 0 17 of 29 58% 37 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Rei Tsuruya 0 6 of 14 42% 13 of 24 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:49
2 Joshua Van 0 18 of 28 64% 31 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Rei Tsuruya 0 11 of 33 33% 19 of 43 1 of 9 11% 0 0 1:24
3 Joshua Van 0 24 of 40 60% 59 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Rei Tsuruya 0 15 of 37 40% 15 of 37 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joshua Van 59 of 97 60% 39 of 74 19 of 22 1 of 1 53 of 90 5 of 5 1 of 2
Rei Tsuruya 32 of 84 38% 28 of 78 2 of 4 2 of 2 32 of 83 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joshua Van 17 of 29 58% 10 of 22 6 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 1
Rei Tsuruya 6 of 14 42% 6 of 13 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joshua Van 18 of 28 64% 13 of 22 5 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 25 2 of 2 1 of 1
Rei Tsuruya 11 of 33 33% 9 of 30 1 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Joshua Van 24 of 40 60% 16 of 30 8 of 10 0 of 0 24 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rei Tsuruya 15 of 37 40% 13 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 15 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-192), Tsuruya (+160)

Round 1
Preliminary headlining focus shifts from the heaviest weight class in the UFC instead to the lightest men’s division, as Van (12-2, 5-1 UFC) vs. Tsuruya (10-0, 1-0 UFC) has been elevated to that vaunted cable slot. As a note, this will be the first fight in the history of the promotion between two competitors born after the year of 2000, and referee Jason Herzog will do his best to keep pace with these two youngsters. The flyweights bump fists, and Tsuruya takes the center of the cage and hand-fights his opponent. Van starts to walk forward, where he jabs the body. Tsuruya shoots in on his hips, and Van shucks him off and escapes. Van stuffs a second takedown, and he turns Tsuruya towards the fence but is unable to keep him there. They jockey for position while kneeing one another in the thigh and midsection, and Van frees himself. When Tsuruya fakes for another takedown, Van sells out defending it and eats a left hand down the pipe. Van pays him back with a snappy right hand, and Tsuruya turns and runs to reset. Van tags him with another right, and he has to fend off another takedown from a long way away. Van works his way to the wall to put his back against it, helping defend the level change. Tsuruya keeps him tied up until Van explodes out of position, and he throws himself off-balance when trying to back off. Van walks him down and punches him in the face, stifling a takedown effort and breaking out of the tie-up. Tsuruya reaches out with a right hand, and he leans back to dodge a head kick that buzzes his cornrows. Van times a perfect right hand when Tsuruya ducks, and Tsuruya has to take a moment to recover. Van keeps after him, ready for the incoming takedown, and Tsuruya still manages to get lower and throws Van to his back. Van gets to his knees and escapes before anything comes from the successful takedown, and he gets back to walking the unbeaten fighter down. Tsuruya again ducks away to get safe, and Van punches him in the nose to bloody it. When Van looses a head kick, Tsuruya hits a successful single-leg entry and puts Van on his seat. Van jumps back up again and elbows Tsuruya on the break to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 2
It takes no more than a few seconds for Tsuruya to shoot for a takedown, and Van shuts him down. The second effort results in both men dropping to their knees, and Van gets out of this one again and goes back to marching his opponent down. Tsuruya ducks and eats a right hand, and Van runs at him with his hands flying. Tsuruya takes one or two on the chin before grabbing Van’s arm and expertly slinging him to the floor. Tsuruya holds on from a high side control, keeping his right arm beneath Van’s head while his left hand slugs Van in the face. Van bursts back to his feet, and he uncomfortably frames of Tsuruya’s face to get some space. Van stuffs a takedown and lands a punch, and Tsuruya gives him two back that set up a single. Van drops to his knees to stop the takedown from going anywhere, and he lets go to stand up. Tsuruya connects at the end of a one-two, and he gets back to circling on the outer edge of the cage. Van disallows him from getting another takedown, pushing out of the clinch so he can throw hands. Tsuruya tries to pay him back, and Van goes to the body with two thudding punches. Tsuruya whiffs, dodges and comes out with a right hand over the top, only for Van to be in his face working him with front kicks and right hands. One particularly damaging front kick forces Tsuruya to shoot, and Van laughs it off and elbows Tsuruya in the face. Tsuruya tries to spin with an elbow in close range, and Van ducks and walks him down to club him in the face with a right hand. Van scores a left hand, grabs the back of Tsuruya’s neck and lowers himself into a painful knee, and Tsuruya shakes it off and spins with a back fist that does land. Van keeps after him until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 3
There is a glove touch to open the last round, and three seconds in, Tsuruya shoots. Van is reminded by Herzog that his opponent is grounded so he does not throw knees, and he lets Tsuruya up so he can bust him in the face with an elbow. Van keeps plodding ever forward, kicking Tsuruya in the face and eating a right hand on the way out. Two more shots from Tsuruya run into a 125-pound brick wall, and Van wants nothing to do with the grappling and gets back to throwing hands. Any time he is about to land with something effective, Tsuruya shoots, and Van easily sprawls. Tsuruya sneaks in a right hand, and he wobbles back when apparently clipped on the way out. Van goes to the body, and his foe fakes a takedown to knee him in the body. Van fires off a front kick, and it bangs into Tsuruya’s cup to force a Herzog stoppage. After 75 seconds, the fighters get back to it with a touch of gloves. Tsuruya shoots in with a naked takedown, and Van belts him in the side of the head as he backs himself to the fence. Van unleashes vicious left hands to the side, with Tsuruya all the way in for a takedown that he is not landing. Van turns the corner and gets out, and he puts his foot on the gas and hops away from a low kick. Van jabs his way in, and he walks through a Tsuruya punch to put one on Tsuruya’s chin. Tsuruya comes up short on a one-two, and Van stings him with a straight right hand. A second from “The Fearless” stumbles Tsuruya, who gathers his thoughts and spins with a back fist that brushes off the side. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 failed takedowns have now come from Tsuruya, and Van walks him down and kicks him in the gut. Van goes to the body and wings a right hand up top, but the big right hand misses his target. Van jams a front kick into Tsuruya’s midsection, and Tsuruya goes down clutching his groin. However, the toes from Van are shown to have stabbed into Tsuruya’s torso, and Herzog ushers them back to restart the fight despite that it was partially a groin shot. Van walks his man down, punching in the face repeatedly, and nearly dropping him right before the final bell. When time expires, Van raises his arms in the air and goes to talk to someone outside the cage, proud that he very likely ejected the Japanese fighter from the ranks of the unbeaten.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (30-27 Van)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Van (30-27 Van)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van (30-27 Van)

The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Rei Tsuruya via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rei Tsuruya 0 17 of 32 53% 62 of 83 3 of 8 37% 0 0 6:19
Carlos Hernandez 0 16 of 32 50% 26 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rei Tsuruya 0 2 of 12 16% 9 of 20 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:16
Carlos Hernandez 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
2 Rei Tsuruya 0 13 of 17 76% 26 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:42
Carlos Hernandez 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rei Tsuruya 0 2 of 3 66% 27 of 28 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:21
Carlos Hernandez 0 6 of 7 85% 16 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rei Tsuruya 17 of 32 53% 15 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 12 2 of 3 13 of 17
Carlos Hernandez 16 of 32 50% 7 of 23 5 of 5 4 of 4 8 of 23 4 of 5 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rei Tsuruya 2 of 12 16% 1 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Hernandez 8 of 23 34% 3 of 18 1 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rei Tsuruya 13 of 17 76% 12 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 13 of 17
Carlos Hernandez 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Rei Tsuruya 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0
Carlos Hernandez 6 of 7 85% 2 of 3 4 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 5 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rei Tsuruya vs. Carlos Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tsuruya (-485), Hernandez (+370)

Round 1
Fresh off three wins on the Road to UFC series, unbeaten youngster Tsuruya (9-0, 0-0 UFC) has a shiny UFC contract and will be officially making his debut with the organization. He takes on 2021 Dana White’s Contender Series pickup Hernandez (9-3, 2-2 UFC), who has alternated wins and losses since joining the major leagues. The third man in the Octagon for this flyweight affair will be referee Marc Goddard, who sits back as the fighters touch gloves. Tsuruya moves to the center of the Octagon immediately, bouncing back and forth looking for a read. Hernandez paws out half-hearted jabs to find his distance, and he hops back when a right hand whizzes by his face. Tsuruya splits the guard with a one-two, and he absorbs a low kick on the way out. When Hernandez commits to an overhand right, Tsuruya drops low and gets hold of a single-leg takedown. Hernandez moves right to a knee and stands back up, and he moves around to take Tsuruya’s back and slams Tsuruya down on his face. When the Japanese fighter hits the mat, he is quick to pursue a kneebar, and he turns the heel to get hold of a possible heel hook. Hernandez turns out of both of them, fights off the potential calf slicer and stands back to his feet. Tsuruya lunges at him with a right hand, and Hernandez walks him down looking for a big right hand that he does not throw. Both fighters miss with short punch combinations, and Hernandez dings the youngster with a left hand on the way out. Tsuruya leans over to land a few strikes, and Hernandez leans back and gets off a right hand at the end of a combo. Tsuruya shoots in for a takedown, and Hernandez works his way to the wall and leans back against it to stay upright. The 22-year-old decides instead to hit a suplex to toss Hernandez to the mat, and he winds up in side control briefly after a mad scramble. Hernandez continues to move, not settling for any position, and Tsuruya sits on top of him at an odd angle. Tsuruya locks down one left of his opponent and turns it to the right, and looks to torque the torso to the left for a potential twister. Hernandez is wise to it, and he escapes the danger before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya

Round 2
There is a quick tap of gloves to get things started in the second stanza, and Hernandez moves to the middle of the cage to start this one instead. Tsuruya dives after him in pursuit of a takedown, and he scoops Hernandez up and deposits him to the mat. Hernandez locks on with an arm-triangle of Tsuruya’s shoulder to trap him in this position, but he looses it to scramble and turn over to his knees. Tsuruya wraps up Hernandez’s left arm and smashes him in the dome with an elbow on the other side, and he is warned for it landing to the back of the head. Tsuruya gets hold of a crucifix position, and Hernandez moves wildly to free his limbs from the precarious posture. Tsuruya follows him in an effort to take the back, and he settles to hold on from one side. Hernandez sits up, with Tsuruya partially behind him, and Tsuruya goes after another twister setup. Tsuruya cranks Hernandez’ hips to the right and looks to pull on Hernandez’ left arm to torque his body in inhuman directions. Hernandez does everything he can to get out of it, and Hernandez turns the wrong direction but wriggles his leg out to escape at the last second. Hernandez flips over to put his back on the mat, where Tsuruya moves into a more standard position of the open guard. Hernandez tries to push off the hips, slash out with elbows and otherwise get some space. Tsuruya gets shoved up back to his feet, and he leaps back down on top and wraps his left arm around the neck for a possible guillotine choke. Tsuruya lets the neck go so he can look for Hernandez’ leg, and Hernandez keeps shifting and twisting. Tsuruya winds up sitting up dropping down 12-6 elbows on his opponent until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya

Round 3
It takes Tsuruya three seconds to shoot for a takedown, and when that fails, he attempts to throw Hernandez behind him. Hernandez keeps heavy, instead pressing forward and landing on top of his opponent. During the exchange, their heads bang together and a cut is opened on the corner of Hernandez’ left eye, and it starts leaking blood down immediately. Hernandez maintains the heaviest of top pressures, not allowing Tsuruya to get any space but not ultimately doing any damage either. Hernandez resides in half guard, and Goddard asks for more activity and for Hernandez to try to improve his position. Tsuruya turns to his side and looks for a single in response, allowing Hernandez to sit up and elbow him a few times. Tsuruya gets to both knees, and he commits hard to the single but they stand up together and end up clinched on the fence. Hernandez squeezes his man up against the wire, until Tsuruya goes down to a knee to try to trip Hernandez to the floor. Hernandez stands up and jams Tsuruya up further, and the pace wanes as Hernandez turns things to a grind. Hernandez digs two left hands to the body before squeezing tightly against the Japanese prospect, occasionally opening up to land another punch or two as time keeps ticking. Tsuruya looks for an arm drag but Hernandez spins around and knees him in the liver. Tsuruya does not like this strike, and Hernandez goes after a single but cannot get it before time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Tsuruya)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Tsuruya)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Tsuruya)

The Official Result
Rei Tsuruya def. Carlos Hernandez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Cody picks Tsuruya, citing his youth, grappling, and back-taking ability. He notes that Hernandez has been taken down multiple times in recent fights and that Tsuruya is a relentless grappler. Cody believes Tsuruya will eventually get a takedown and take Hernandez's back, leading to a submission or dominant decision. He also mentions that Tsuruya has a good gas tank and creates scrambles.

"I'll take Ray to get the job done."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Daniel respects Tsuruya's grappling-heavy style and his commitment to takedowns, even if they are not set up. He worries about Hernandez's lack of athleticism and physicality, which could allow Tsuruya to backpack and win a decision or submission. However, he notes that Tsuruya is vulnerable to knees when shooting blindly and calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"I do think that Hernandez can possibly Scramble with this guy... but I'm just worried about Tsuruya just kind of backpacking a little bit."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

The host is confident Tsuruya will win, citing his superior wrestling and ability to create chaos in grappling exchanges. He expects Tsuruya to grind out Hernandez over 15 minutes, possibly by decision. He notes Hernandez has solid takedown defense but thinks Tsuruya's relentless pressure will overcome it.

Tsuruya wins by decision at +200; over 2.5 rounds at plus money
"Give me suya here and the over at plus money gives me a little bit of uh Intrigue."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Paul leans toward Tsuruya but is wary of the minus-500 price. He notes that Hernandez has been taken down frequently and that Tsuruya is a strong grappler. However, Paul prefers to see Tsuruya against better competition before betting him at such short odds. He acknowledges that Tsuruya likely wins but passes on the bet.

"Not a fight I really have too much interest in betting to be perfectly honest."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Hernandez

The Guru picks Carlos Hernandez as an underdog over Rei Tsuruya. He suspects Tsuruya may be due for a 'fraud check' as a Road to UFC prospect. He notes Hernandez's experience and longevity in the sport. He believes Hernandez can win a close decision, possibly 29-28.

decision
"I'm going with Carlos Hernandez as an underdog... decision"
Kevin Borjas - Fight History
SCHED vs Rei Tsuruya
SCHED vs André Lima
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2026 (4 days before fight)
André Lima

AJ picks André Lima, praising his technical Muay Thai, body work, and solid grappling. He acknowledges Borjas is a tough underdog with a big left hook but thinks Lima's craftiness and cardio edge will prevail. He expects a later finish or decision, possibly with Lima winning over 1.5 rounds.

Lima by decision +110, Lima wins over 1.5 rounds
"I just think Lima's too technically so [ __ ] polished. Clean Muay Thai, good work to the body and head, good leg kicks, good elbows on the inside, solid grappling, just a guy that checks boxes as a prospect."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2026 (5 days before fight)
André Lima

AJ picks Lima as the more crafty striker with high-level Muay Thai, body attacks, and a well-rounded game. He thinks Borjas is a step slower and will be outworked, though he notes Borjas is tough and could land a big left hook. AJ predicts a decision or late stoppage for Lima.

Lima decision +110, Lima KO +275, over 1.5 rounds (implied)
"I feel like Andre Lima is going to be too crafty."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2026 (1 day before fight)
André Lima

AJ picks André Lima as the blue chip prospect, citing his elite Muay Thai and well-rounded skills. He expects Lima to outlast Borjas, who is a boxing-heavy striker, and potentially finish him late via submission after Borjas gasses. He favors Lima to win over 1.5 rounds.

Lima wins over 1.5 -210; Lima wins round 3 +800; Lima by submission +1100; Lima finish -110
"I'm going Lima, I can't go Borhas. ... I think Lima's too crafty, too well-rounded."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2026 (3 days before fight)
André Lima

AJ thinks Lima is too crafty and well-versed for Borjas, with a grappling threat and good Muay Thai. He expects Lima to mix grappling with strikes and take over as Borjas slows down. However, AJ notes the -650 line is ugly and prefers Lima to win over 1.5 rounds rather than the moneyline.

Lima to win over 1.5 rounds at -190; Lima by submission over 1.5 rounds at +1100 (degen prop)
"I do think that Borjas is game... but I think Lima's too crafty. He's got more weapons."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2026 (1 day before fight)
André Lima

Angelo picks André Lima, noting his clean kickboxing and speed. He acknowledges Kevin Borjas is dangerous and has one-punch power, but thinks Borjas fades. He expects Lima to win a one-sided striking match but isn't sure Lima will cover his DFS salary due to high price and lack of finishing ability.

Angelo says he doesn't know if he'll put Lima in his DFS lineup because he's wildly expensive and not a finisher. He notes Borjas has been finished before.
"I think Andre Lima gets the win. I don't know if I'm going to put the money on Andre Lima in the DraftKings fantasy lineup because he is wildly expensive."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2026 (6 days before fight)
André Lima

Angelo picks André Lima despite being surprised by the huge favorite line. He acknowledges Kevin Borjas is better than people think but still believes Lima's striking and takedown defense will prevail. He calls Lima the pick.

"Andre has to be the pick. Minus 700."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2026 (3 days before fight)
André Lima

Angelo picks Lima as the biggest favorite on the card, believing he is the better striker and will take over as Borjas fades. He acknowledges Borjas is not a bad fighter but expects Lima to win clearly. He includes Lima in a parlay with Oliveira.

Included in a parlay with Vinicius Oliveira
"I do think Andre Lima wins this fight. I'm confident that Andre Lima should win this fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2026 (3 days before fight)
André Lima

Cody picks Lima, citing his improved grappling, cardio, and technical kickboxing. He sees Borjas as one-dimensional, slow, and lacking a plan B. He expects Lima to either catch him or take him into deep waters and submit him.

"I think at some point Andre Leman either catches him or just takes him into deeper waters, gets on his back, and maybe grabs a submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2026 (2 days before fight)
André Lima

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Borjas is a fun fighter but lacks the athleticism to compete at flyweight. He points out that Lima has the power and durability to dissuade Borjas, and that Borjas's reliance on countering will be problematic when Lima pressures forward. Connor also mentions Lima's ability to switch to takedowns.

Same odds as Zane.
"I think Borjas is better than Barrez. So it is, you know, there is something to be more interested in there."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2026 (5 days before fight)
André Lima

Lucrative James picks André Lima, stating that Lima is a level above Kevin Borjas in MMA. He highlights Lima's leg kicks, defensive striking, and grappling upside, while Borjas is primarily a boxer with susceptibility to leg kicks. James predicts a decision win, as Lima doesn't take unnecessary risks and Borjas is tough.

"I'm picking Andre Lemur to win... I'll go with Andre Lee via decision for my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2026 (4 days before fight)
André Lima

Lima is better everywhere, with improved grappling and cardio. He will dictate the pace, chew up Borjas' lead leg, and eventually get a finish via TKO or submission. The under 2.5 rounds at plus money is a good prop.

under 2.5 rounds
"official prediction will be Andre Lima. I'm going to say uh I'm just going to say inside the distance."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2026 (3 days before fight)
André Lima

Lima is the better striker and grappler, and will put together a good body of work leading to a finish in the second or third round.

finish in round 2 or 3
"I really like Lima in this spot as I think he is the better striker and better grappler, and I think that could allow him to put together a good body of work leading to him eventually finding a finish …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 17, 2026 (3 days before fight)
André Lima

Paul picks Lima but is not confident at the price, calling the line too wide. He acknowledges Borjas's durability and early danger but thinks Lima is sharper and more skilled. He won't bet it himself.

"Lima will be the pick, I suppose, but not a fight I'm getting heavily invested in this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2026 (fight day)
André Lima

The MMA Guru picks Andre Lima to win via clear decision. He believes Lima is too well-rounded and will mitigate Borjas' boxing, then take over with kicks and takedowns as Borjas slows down. He notes Borjas missed weight and is compromised. He expects Lima to get control time and snowball to a dominant decision.

most confident pick on the card
"I just feel like Lima's too well-rounded. He's going to be able to mitigate the boxing of Borrachinha."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2026 (2 days before fight)
André Lima

Zane picks Lima, citing his breakout performance against Barreto where he showed assertiveness and body work. He notes Borjas has a style built on aggression but lacks adaptability and a second gear. Zane believes Lima's low kicks will be devastating against Borjas's tendency to jab and circle left, and that Lima's durability and power will overwhelm Borjas.

Lima is a big favorite at -650. Zane mentions the odds feel appropriate.
"I'm very confident of, again, this is supposing Lima takes a similar approach as he did to bar is he's going to end up wrecking Borjas with those low kicks."
KO R2 4:21 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Imanol Rodriguez 1 46 of 84 54% 55 of 93 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:33
Kevin Borjas 2 22 of 52 42% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Imanol Rodriguez 0 12 of 22 54% 21 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:28
Kevin Borjas 2 12 of 23 52% 14 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Imanol Rodriguez 1 34 of 62 54% 34 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Kevin Borjas 0 10 of 29 34% 10 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Imanol Rodriguez 46 of 84 54% 35 of 67 7 of 11 4 of 6 30 of 63 2 of 4 14 of 17
Kevin Borjas 22 of 52 42% 17 of 45 3 of 5 2 of 2 20 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Imanol Rodriguez 12 of 22 54% 9 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 4 6 of 14 0 of 0 6 of 8
Kevin Borjas 12 of 23 52% 10 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Imanol Rodriguez 34 of 62 54% 26 of 50 6 of 10 2 of 2 24 of 49 2 of 4 8 of 9
Kevin Borjas 10 of 29 34% 7 of 25 1 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Borjas vs. Imanol Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-400); Borjas (+325)

Round 1
Making his UFC debut with six finishes in six fights, Mexico’s Rodriguez (6-0, 0-0 UFC) is en fuego and plans on handing fellow slugger Borjas (10-4, 1-3 UFC) his fourth loss in five walks to the Octagon. Keeping tabs on the flyweights will be referee Raul Porrata, ready to intervene at a moment’s notice after the fighters share a fist bump.
The unbeaten speedster starts off the fight by firing off several quick punches and kicks that are so fast, Borjas cannot do anything but watch as he absorbs them. Rodriguez beats him to the punch and kick repeatedly, and the counters do not even start to come back at him yet because he is out of reach seconds after he connects. Borjas uncorks a bomb of a left hand when Rodriguez swings in the pocket and sends him flying, and Porrata is just about to run and stop the fight. Porrata peels back as Rodriguez bounces back to his feet, and Borjas rushes at him and drops the youngster again. Rodriguez miraculously gathers his thoughts and completes enough of a takedown to put Borjas on his back and start recovering.
Rodriguez slows himself down, preferring to maintain top position and strike with his elbows rather than looking for a finish and burning out his gas tank. Rodriguez holds on from half guard, and Porrata starts calling for more activity. Rodriguez keeps busy with ground-and-pound, and Borjas clings to his man off his back. Rodriguez postures up and drills Borjas with a flush elbow, and Borjas ties him up again in hopes of getting the standup he seeks. Rodriguez slashes down with more elbows, covering Borjas’ mouth with his free hand to further make life miserable. Rodriguez’ elbows keep drilling the Peruvian athlete in the dome, but they do not wound him externally. Rodriguez jumps into mount with seconds to go, and Borjas climbs up when the bell sounds. Rodriguez gets in Borjas’ face when the round ends, and Porrata has to separate them and send them back to their respective corners.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Borjas
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Borjas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Borjas

Round 2
The fighters clap hands to get going in the second stanza, with Rodriguez striking first with a low kick and missing on huge haymakers that follow. Borjas kicks him back, and he is checked. Rodriguez darts in behind a left hook, and Borjas probes out with an intercepting jab. Borjas pump-fakes his hips as if to threaten with something, and this stifles Rodriguez from committing to much. Rodriguez pitches out single strikes at a time, and the two both offer front kicks. Rodriguez swings for the fences with a pair of punches, only for Borjas to be out of the way in time. Rodriguez swarms Borjas with a short flurry, and Borjas’ head movement keeps him relatively safe as he backpedals. When Rodriguez engages again, Borjas is ready in the pocket to trade back, resulting in Rodriguez pulling back a bit. The speed advantage is not nearly as significant, as Rodriguez runs forward and holds his left hand out to graze Borjas’ eye with his fingertips. Porrata calls time, and Borjas takes a few seconds to recover from what was a not-too-terrible eye poke.
Rodriguez punches his way into a frantic takedown shot, and he bangs into Borjas against the wall and is pushed back with a hard right hand. Rodriguez prods out his jab and shoots for a single, holding Borjas’ leg in the air and slugging him in the face with a trio of punches before disengaging. Borjas catches Rodriguez on the sides of the head with two punches, and Rodriguez freezes him with a shovel left uppercut. Rodriguez goes wild and falls over when swinging so hard, and he recovers to offer a spinning elbow that bounces off the guard.
Rodriguez digs a kick to the body and whips out a right hand that scrambles Borjas’ circuits. A stunned Borjas blinks a few times, but does not realize that he is as hurt as he actually is. Borjas’ spirit may be willing but his flesh is spongy and bruised. “El Gallo Negro” slumps to the floor, the fight having fully left his body, and he feebly holds his arms over his head to protect from the pounding he expects to come. Rodriguez lets him have it with a final barrage of standing-to-ground punches as Porrata rushes in to stop the fight
, and that makes it 7-0 for the youngster from Mexico. The crowd goes wild for their local fighter, who survived some adversity and made it out the other end with a knockout victory.

The Official Result
Imanol Rodriguez def. Kevin Borjas R2 4:21 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Imanol Rodriguez

Angelo picks Imanol Rodriguez, noting his fast, clean striking and one-punch knockout power. He highlights Rodriguez's heart and composure even in his loss, and believes he will win outright. He considers Rodriguez one of the safer larger favorites on the card.

"I got to go with the kid. I think he wins outright. ... I Rodriguez should win here. He's one of the only larger favorites on this card that you look at it and you're like, 'Yeah, we should absolutely …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Imanol Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Imanol Rodriguez, calling him a prospect to watch with impressive striking, volume, and forward pressure. He notes Kevin Borjas had a bizarre low-volume performance in his last fight and believes Rodriguez is better everywhere. He predicts a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"Give me Emanuel Rodriguez to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Manuel Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez but worries about his tendency to go all-out and gas at altitude. He notes Borjas's poor striking defense and the poor record of his gym. He took Rodriguez by KO at +130 as a prop.

Rodriguez by KO +130
"I have a little bit of money on even by KO plus 130. That's how I got invested into this."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Imanol Rodriguez

Connor agrees, calling Rodriguez a triple-A prospect who looks like a future title contender. He notes that Borjas has some counterpunching ability but will struggle to deal with Rodriguez's ferocious pressure and speed. Connor believes Rodriguez's combination of athleticism and technical skill will be too much for Borjas.

Rodriguez's pressure; Borjas's counter right hand; Rodriguez's potential
"I think he's ready for it. I think he has that kind of natural athleticism."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)

The host believes Rodriguez is most likely to win but the odds are too wide at -454. He notes that Rodriguez is a grappler with good cardio, while Borjas is a volume striker who may fade at altitude. However, since Rodriguez is making his UFC debut and the odds are extreme, the host passes on betting.

"There's no doubt that Iman Rodriguez is most likely to win, but should he be a 1.22 minus 454 implied probability of 82% favorite over Kevin Borass in his UFC debut?"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Manuel Rodriguez

James is high on Rodriguez as a prospect, citing his impressive performance against Joseph Morales and his aggressive, powerful style. He believes Rodriguez's pressure and body work will break Borjas, who tends to fade under pace. James predicts a KO win for Rodriguez.

"I'm going to pick Iman Rodriguez here. I'm going to pick him via KO."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Imanol Rodriguez

The host picks Imanol Rodriguez inside the distance, citing his wrestling background, finishing ability, and overall advantages. He believes Rodriguez will land big shots, change levels, and work to a dominant position on the ground. He considers Rodriguez a future title contender and recommends him as a parlay piece.

Parlay piece
"I'm going to take Rodriguez inside the distance and I really wouldn't mind him as a parlay piece either here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Manuel Rodriguez

Paul is high on Rodriguez's talent, speed, and power. He notes Borjas's durability but lack of offense and poor recent form. He expects Rodriguez to land big shots and win, though he cautions about the -450 price and Rodriguez's inexperience.

"I do have INol Rodriguez to get the job done. But when you look at a mega prospect, and this kid's a mega prospect, do you put him all the way at the top? No."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Imanol Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Imanol Rodriguez, praising his boxing, head movement, and maturity. He notes that Rodriguez had a close split decision with Joseph Morales but showed good grappling, while Kevin Borjas only has a win over Ronaldo Rodriguez, who is not that good. He also mentions the Mexico City altitude advantage for Rodriguez.

"I'm going to go over Manuel Rodriguez. Good boxing, good head movement, good patience."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Imanol Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez as a blue-chip prospect with elite athleticism and a well-rounded game. He notes that Borjas is too dependent on being the stronger or more technical fighter, and Rodriguez is both athletic and technical. Rodriguez's wrestling and aggressive striking will overwhelm Borjas, who has struggled against better athletes.

Rodriguez's athleticism; Borjas's struggles against better athletes; Rodriguez's wrestling threat
"Yeah, you got to pick him. Rodriguez is a big favorite..."
LOSS vs Sumudaerji
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sumudaerji 0 73 of 129 56% 91 of 150 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:17
Kevin Borjas 0 16 of 44 36% 23 of 51 0 of 5 0% 0 0 3:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sumudaerji 0 17 of 35 48% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Borjas 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
2 Sumudaerji 0 32 of 47 68% 36 of 51 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
Kevin Borjas 0 9 of 20 45% 15 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
3 Sumudaerji 0 24 of 47 51% 38 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Borjas 0 4 of 11 36% 5 of 12 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sumudaerji 73 of 129 56% 33 of 75 17 of 25 23 of 29 67 of 121 6 of 8 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 16 of 44 36% 7 of 30 5 of 7 4 of 7 10 of 37 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sumudaerji 17 of 35 48% 6 of 15 3 of 9 8 of 11 16 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 3 of 13 23% 1 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 3 1 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Sumudaerji 32 of 47 68% 14 of 25 7 of 8 11 of 14 30 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 17 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Sumudaerji 24 of 47 51% 13 of 35 7 of 8 4 of 4 21 of 43 3 of 4 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Su Mudaerji vs. Kevin Borjas

Round 1
Flyweights Sumudaerji and Borjas face off under the watchful eye of referee Vitor Ribeiro. Borjas is orthodox, Sumudaerji southpaw. “The Tibetan Eagle” throws a lunging side kick to the midsection. He follows up with a solid inside kick to Borjas’ lead leg. Sumudaerji with a high kick that slaps off his opponent’s raised guard. A minute and a half in, Borjas has thrown next to no strikes. Sumudaerji flicks out a long jab. Ribeiro pauses the action and cautions Sumudaerji about extending his fingers. They go back to work and Sumudaerji lands a loud low kick. Borjas comes back with a jab that glances, then changes levels and runs his man all the way to the cage. Borjas locks his hands and tries to elevate the taller man, but Sumudaerji uses an overhook/underhook and his height advantage to keep his feet firmly under him. They break off the clinch and go back to work in the middle of the cage, where Borjas continues to struggle with the range against the much taller man. Sumudaerji backs Borjas off with a side kick to the midsection at the 10-second clapper, then a pair of spinning back kicks—one from each side—right before the horn. Neither lands with much impact, but the impression is that Sumudaerji is starting to get into a flow.
10-9 Mudaerji.

Round 2
Sumudaerji paws Borjas’ face with an open hand in the first real exchange of the round, leading the Peruvian to back away blinking. Referee Ribeiro reiterates his warning, this time making it a “hard” one, for whatever that’s worth, before letting them go back to work. Sumudaerji reaches out with long side kicks again, landing to Borjas’ body, where they do their damage, but just as importantly, keep Borjas from getting anywhere near punching range. Borjas surges forward, clinches and shoves the taller man to the fence, where he is unable either to secure a takedown or land any short-range offense. They separate and return to open space, but Sumudaerji is still very much in control of the action there. Borjas lowers his head again and drives Sumudaerji to the cage, but “The Tibetan Eagle” uses an underhook to force a stalemate there. They disengage once again and Sumudaerji goes right back to working the Peruvian’s legs and body with his kicks. Under a minute to go and Sumudaerji opens up with a spinning back kick that lands to the midsection. The horn sounds on another frustrating round for “El Gallo Negro.”
10-9 Mudaerji.

Round 3
Borjas comes out aggressively to enter the final frame, forcing the issue rather than be stranded on the outside for yet another five minutes. Sumudaerji responds with a reactive takedown attempt which goes nowhere, but perhaps gives Borjas something else to think about. Borjas continues on the front foot, backing Sumudaerji to the fence, where he briefly sits him down with a clean punch. The Tibetan smiles and motions that it was a slip, which seems to fit the visual evidence, and they return to kickboxing. Sumudaerji throws a spinning wheel kick that glances without damage, and Borjas collapses the distance, clinching and shoving him to the fence. The referee separates them after a few uneventful moments, and they meet once again near the center of the cage, where Sumudaerji has thus far been an unsolvable riddle. Borjas steps inside a spinning technique, nearly takes Sumudaerji’s back standing, but settles for pushing him to the fence yet again. Under a minute to go and Borjas’ corner is imploring him to do something big. He tries his best, but only succeeds in opening up an opportunity for his foe to land a big elbow. That turns out to be the last significant offense of the fight, as the horn sounds moments later on a methodical near shutout for the Chinese fighter.
10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji).

The Official Result
Su Mudaerji def. Kevin Borjas via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Angelo picks Kevin Borjas as the dog, calling him the better striker and more dangerous and durable. He notes that Sumudaerji is fast and accurate but lacks power. He suggests prop bets like win inside distance or plus 3.5 rounds, as he doesn't see Borjas getting stopped. He is confident in Borjas winning.

Suggests betting on Kevin Borjas win inside distance (decision no action) or plus 3.5 rounds.
"I'm going with the dog here. I think Kevin's the better striker and this is mostly going to be a striking matchup. Not only is Kevin the better striker, he's also the more dangerous of the two and the more …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Big Brady picks Kevin Borjas to win a damage-based decision, despite Sumudaerji being a good striker. He notes that Sumudaerji has been submitted six times and has looked rough recently, but Borjas is not a grappler. He believes Borjas has power and can land big shots, and that Sumudaerji is not a finisher at this level. He expects a close fight with Borjas having big moments.

Borjas by decision
"I'm going to take Borhos to to win the fight here by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Connor likes Borjas's game and thinks he will dictate the pace, forcing Sumudaerji to brawl. He notes that Sumudaerji tends to let opponents lead and then engages, but Borjas is a backfoot counter puncher who will likely start first. Connor worries about Borjas's defensive acumen and high chin, but believes Sumudaerji lacks knockout power, having only finished Malcolm Gordon in the UFC. He compares the fight to Sumudaerji's loss to Charles Johnson, where Johnson set the early pace and won.

"I really like borjas's game. I think sumudarji is a really interesting test for him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

The host acknowledges Borjas looked his best last time, but thinks he will struggle against the superior striking of Sumudaerji. He expects Sumudaerji to keep Borjas at bay, avoid counter-strikes, pick him apart, and win on the scorecards.

"I think he's going to struggle against the superior striking of Sumodargi. Look for Sumodargi to keep Borhas at bay, avoid most of the counter-strikes of Boras, pick him apart, and win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Sumudaerji

The MMA Guru picks Sumudaerji to win by decision, citing his range and ability to make fights low-output. He believes Sumudaerji's length will be a problem for Kevin Borjas, who he describes as a one-two merchant. He notes that Borjas had a close fight with Ronaldo Rodriguez, and that Sumudaerji looked good against Charles Johnson. He expects a 30-27 schooling victory.

Sumudaerji by decision 30-27
"I'm going to go with Summedi. I think his range is going to be a problem for Kevin Bas... I think Sumaduji is going to rise to the occasion and beat Kevin Bouras."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Borjas has shown good stuff in his fights and that Sumudaerji is a technical step up but not a huge one. He points out that Sumudaerji is tough but often starts fights going second, which could allow Borjas to take control. Zane also mentions that Borjas has never been knocked out and took shots from Ronaldo Rodriguez well, so Sumudaerji's lack of power is a factor.

"I think if he lets borjas start it then borjas is just gonna keep it."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ronaldo Rodríguez 0 64 of 151 42% 64 of 151 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:57
Kevin Borjas 1 83 of 141 58% 84 of 142 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ronaldo Rodríguez 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:43
Kevin Borjas 1 17 of 31 54% 18 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Ronaldo Rodríguez 0 17 of 42 40% 17 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:14
Kevin Borjas 0 23 of 33 69% 23 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ronaldo Rodríguez 0 37 of 84 44% 37 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Borjas 0 43 of 77 55% 43 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ronaldo Rodríguez 64 of 151 42% 31 of 110 11 of 16 22 of 25 63 of 149 1 of 2 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 83 of 141 58% 72 of 129 6 of 7 5 of 5 78 of 135 3 of 4 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ronaldo Rodríguez 10 of 25 40% 4 of 16 2 of 3 4 of 6 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 17 of 31 54% 13 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 2 14 of 28 1 of 1 2 of 2
2 Ronaldo Rodríguez 17 of 42 40% 7 of 30 3 of 4 7 of 8 16 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 23 of 33 69% 20 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Ronaldo Rodríguez 37 of 84 44% 20 of 64 6 of 9 11 of 11 37 of 83 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 43 of 77 55% 39 of 72 2 of 3 2 of 2 42 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Borjas vs. Ronaldo Rodriguez (127: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-170), Borjas (+142)

Round 1
Due to some card rejiggering, the catchweight contest between Rodriguez (17-2, 2-0 UFC) and Borjas (9-3, 0-2 UFC) is currently the main card opener. The fight was originally booked at 125 pounds, but “Lazy Boy” could not help himself and exceeded the divisional cap by a pound. Despite their differences in momentum, this is one of the matches tonight with the closest betting line, with Rodriguez still the favored man of the two both in the building and on the books. The fighters are ready, and referee Herb Dean is ready too. The crowd is alive, and the fighters are as energized as it gets. They choose not to touch gloves, and take advantage of the amperage. Both fighters aim at one another without pulling the trigger, until about 45 second passes. Suddenly, Rodriguez spins with a wheel kick that glances off the target, and his second attack is a jumping switch kick. Rodriguez uses kicks to back Borjas off, and Borjas walks him down and smashes him square in the jaw and sets him down. Rodriguez reverse-somersaults to roll through the knockdown blow, and somehow appears not compromises at all and in fact waves Borjas on. Rodriguez lands a few times to get back at Borjas, and he walks the Peruvian fighter down looking for a way in. A Rodriguez spin kick slaps off the raised hands, and he presses forward calmly with his right hand ready to fire. When Borjas catches his foe’s leg, Rodriguez yanks his limb free and resets. Borjas just misses with a one-two, and Rodriguez gets in a low kick and ducks away from a counter right hand. Borjas connects with another overhand right, and Rodriguez responds with kicks. A fireball of a Borjas right hand torches Rodriguez and knocks him off his feet again, and like before, “Lazy Boy” returns right back upright and is again prepared to brawl. Borjas enters and fires off more strikes, only to be met with a crisp right hand that stuns him. Rodriguez shoots into a takedown attempt, and Borjas times a jump knee and clacks it off Rodriguez’ knee. Rodriguez lifts his foe’s leg up and attempts to slam it down to simultaneously go for a takedown and hyperextend the limb. On his second try, Rodriguez gets his foe down. Time expires before he can do anything with the position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Borjas
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Borjas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Borjas

Round 2
Rodriguez is the initial aggressor in the second round despite getting dropped twice. He tries a jumping kick that is well off the mark, and Borjas lets it soar way past him. Rodriguez chips at the front leg with a kick as he settles himself down, and he springs into action with a looping left and a body kick on the other side. Rodriguez slaps the front leg with another kick, and he gets caught with a few jabs but slings heavy leather. Rodriguez just misses with a front kick, and he swings a left hand that turns out to be a strange level change. Borjas is easily out of the way, and once more he has a jump knee waiting for the shot that he expects and eventually comes from Rodriguez. Borjas stands in the pocket and drills his man with a one-two, and Rodriguez reels and re-enters the melee while pointing at the floor for more of that. Borjas does not go for broke, and Rodriguez chases him around the Octagon and scores a leg kick. Rodriguez has a wheel kick partially connect, and he sprints at Borjas to attack more. Borjas escapes, but he does not avoid the low kick that comes. Borjas stands his man up with a clean right hand, and Rodriguez answers him with a front kick straight up the middle. Rodriguez gets popped when kicking the front leg, as Borjas is prepared with counters, especially the power right. Rodriguez spins and his heel bounces off the chest, and he chains a low kick into a jumping switch kick. Borjas slips and moves, and he times a right hand that drops Rodriguez to a knee. Rodriguez, steel in his noodle, rebounds and crashes the pocket for a single-leg entry. Borjas defends it by putting his back to the wall, and he keeps his guard up to block a spinning back fist right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Borjas
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Borjas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Borjas

Round 3
Rodriguez runs out of his corner to attack with a big front kick to start things off, and Borjas easily deflects it. When Rodriguez engages, Borjas doubles up on a jab and rifles off his nasty right hand. Rodriguez keeps in the pocket throwing hands rather than backing off, resulting in Borjas ripping the body after. A right hand from the Peruvian fighter busts Rodriguez’ nose up, and Rodriguez chains a few punches together that get Borjas’ attention. Jabs are traded, and Borjas uses a right hand to break up a leg kick try. When Rodriguez throws, Borjas clacks him with his overhand right, a strike that seemingly cannot miss. Rodriguez jumps with a switch kick and then lands to toss out a wheel kick, but he is too close to do anything with it. This allows Borjas to plant his feet and blast him in the face with a mean right hand, and he seconds it with another that Rodriguez tries to absorb by leaning back. Rodriguez accepts that he will get jabbed as he starts loading up with more power, and he ducks and protects himself from a head kick that he nearly leaned into. Rodriguez gets stood up when throwing hands once more, and he lobs a low kick at his opponent. Borjas rolls with a punch and looses a few more, breaking up a combo with a head kick and then stifling Rodriguez with a second. Borjas checks a kick and points at Rodriguez, who came up gimpy from the shin-on-shin contact. Rodriguez bites down on his mouthpiece, blood streaming down his mouth, and he slings several failed wheel kicks and power strikes that do not connect. Rodriguez points to the mat to force a final brawl, and Borjas thinks twice and then decides to oblige him. Rodriguez clips him back, and he even has a cartwheel kick bounce off the Peruvian’s guard. Rodriguez pounds a leg kick home, and the two swing it out right to the final bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Borjas (30-27 Borjas)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Borjas (30-26 Borjas)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Borjas (30-27 Borjas)

The Official Result
Kevin Borjas def. Ronaldo Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
TKO (punches) R2 1:35 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alessandro Costa 1 46 of 86 53% 60 of 104 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
Kevin Borjas 0 18 of 56 32% 18 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alessandro Costa 0 16 of 45 35% 16 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Kevin Borjas 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Alessandro Costa 1 30 of 41 73% 44 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Kevin Borjas 0 3 of 18 16% 3 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alessandro Costa 46 of 86 53% 32 of 66 2 of 5 12 of 15 25 of 55 1 of 3 20 of 28
Kevin Borjas 18 of 56 32% 12 of 45 5 of 10 1 of 1 18 of 55 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alessandro Costa 16 of 45 35% 9 of 33 2 of 4 5 of 8 15 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 1
Kevin Borjas 15 of 38 39% 10 of 31 4 of 6 1 of 1 15 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alessandro Costa 30 of 41 73% 23 of 33 0 of 1 7 of 7 10 of 14 0 of 0 20 of 27
Kevin Borjas 3 of 18 16% 2 of 14 1 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Borjas vs. Alessandro Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-125), Borjas (+105)

Round 1
The UFC is back for its annual trip to Brazil, and it stacked the deck for the home nation by putting one Brazilian combatant against a foreigner in every bout. As a result, betting lines are lopsided towards the locals, with those from Brazil favored in 10 of the 13 fights. As most know, anything can and often does happen in MMA once the cage door closes, so it’s time to buckle up. The first of a baker’s dozen matchups comes in the flyweight division between two South American men that could both use a win. Costa (13-4, 1-2 UFC) has had the misfortune of facing two elite 125ers in his three walks to the Octagon thus far, while Borjas (9-2, 0-1 UFC) ran into the Burmese wall that was Josh Van in his promotional debut. The two will receive oversight from referee Joao Claudio Soares in this curtain jerker, and they get after it following a swift touch of gloves. The two flyweights measure one another early, trying to draw the other out with little more than movement and a pump-fake or two. Borjas paws out a range-finding jab, and Costa suddenly fires back with a one-two and a low kick. Costa surges ahead, stringing together a number of punches that bounce off and through the guard of his opponent. Costa whips a kick low to intercept Borjas coming in at him, and he stalks his man down. The Brazilian swarms forward, and Borjas shifts and rolls to avoid the damage. Costa changes levels for a takedown shot from a wide distance, and “El Gallo Negro” shucks it off before it turns into anything. Borjas paws out a few jabs, and he finds himself in a brief slugfest that gets his jaw jacked. Costa stands back to admire his work, and then blazes ahead to hammer his man with three punches on the side of the head and they crash heads together. A cut has opened up above Borjas’ ear, but he does not acknowledge it and tries to counter the advancing Costa with two flying knees. Costa shrugs them both off and lets his hand fly, and sporadic chants for “uh vai morrer” rain down from the fans. Costa takes the energy of the crowd and rifles off a jab that knocks Borjas off his feet, and he lets Borjas recover so that he can ring his bell with a pair of hooks. Borjas stumbles and gets back to his feet to leap in the air with a knee, and the round ends with Costa returning fire with his own flying knee that slams into the chest. Borjas throws his foe to the floor, and the round ends.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
The two men bump fists to open the round, and Costa gets right back to his advancing attack. Costa lays into his man with punches to the head, and he mixes up one to the body that appears to hurt the Peruvian. Costa sees and opening and unleashes a number of leg kicks that do serious damage and make Borjas limp. Borjas tries to tough it out, but Costa sweeps him off his feet with vicious low kicks. Costa chains a few punches together as Borjas backs himself against the fence, and he knocks Borjas to the ground again with a mighty calf kick. Seeing the finish might be around the corner, “Nono” leaps on top and drops jackhammering fists as Soares takes a close eye on the action. Borjas tries to scramble and nearly gives up his back, and as he turns over, Costa jumps on top of him into full mount.
Costa finishes the job with a long series of hammerfists and punches, and Soares has seen enough and waves off the fight to put Brazil on the board first.
This is an important win for the Brazilian, who evens his UFC record to .500 while also evening his distribution of knockouts to submissions at six apiece.

The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Kevin Borjas R2 1:35 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo sees this as a 50/50 fight but leans Costa due to his wrestling advantage. He notes Costa's low volume striking and power, but believes Costa's takedowns will be the difference, similar to Borjas' loss to Joshua Van. He explicitly says he's not betting on it because he doesn't trust Costa.

"I am going to pick alisandra kosa to win this fight but only because of the wrestling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Big Brady sees Costa as having more ways to win, including power on the feet and a grappling advantage. He notes Costa's BJJ black belt and slick ground game, though it hasn't been shown in the UFC yet. He predicts Costa will get the fight to the mat and secure a submission in the second round.

submission in round 2
"I'll take Costa to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Cody picks Costa, citing his powerful low kicks, takedown defense, and durability. He notes Borjas is a brawler with poor cardio and takedown defense. Cody expects Costa to land heavy shots and grind out a win.

"Costa for me..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Daniel Vreeland picks Costa, citing his experience against top competition (Albazi, Erceg), Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and home crowd advantage. He notes that Borjas has volume but less experience at the UFC level. He believes Costa's grappling is a key advantage and even took a small bet on Costa by submission at +550.

Costa by submission +550
"I do think that Costa gets the job done here probably uh and I even took a small shot on Costa by submission here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Borjas had a hot start in his UFC debut but blew his wad too early. He is expected to learn from that mistake and put on power striking pressure against Costa, eventually finding a knockout within two rounds.

knockout within two rounds
"I expect him to learn from that mistake this time around and put on the power striking pressure here against alisandra Costa and eventually find The Knockout within two rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul picks Costa, emphasizing his takedown defense and power. He notes Borjas leaves openings and has been taken down easily. Paul expects Costa to land damaging blows and win.

"I got to go with Costa to get the job done."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa based on athleticism, speed, power, and strength, especially against the cage. He notes Costa's rough UFC run but highlights competitive rounds against top flyweights like Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi. He predicts a TKO in the second round, citing Costa's finishing potential and power advantage over the relatively unknown Kevin Borjas.

TKO in the second round
"I'm going to go with alesandro Costa getting this one done by TKO in the second round"
LOSS vs Joshua Van
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joshua Van 0 156 of 300 52% 165 of 311 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:03
Kevin Borjas 0 75 of 197 38% 78 of 200 0 of 3 0% 0 1 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joshua Van 0 20 of 42 47% 20 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Kevin Borjas 0 23 of 58 39% 24 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
2 Joshua Van 0 77 of 144 53% 77 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Borjas 0 27 of 74 36% 27 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Joshua Van 0 59 of 114 51% 68 of 125 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:02
Kevin Borjas 0 25 of 65 38% 27 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joshua Van 156 of 300 52% 92 of 227 49 of 57 15 of 16 153 of 295 3 of 5 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 75 of 197 38% 54 of 170 9 of 12 12 of 15 73 of 193 1 of 2 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joshua Van 20 of 42 47% 9 of 27 5 of 8 6 of 7 17 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 23 of 58 39% 14 of 45 1 of 3 8 of 10 23 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Joshua Van 77 of 144 53% 46 of 110 27 of 30 4 of 4 77 of 143 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 27 of 74 36% 23 of 68 3 of 4 1 of 2 27 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Joshua Van 59 of 114 51% 37 of 90 17 of 19 5 of 5 59 of 114 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 25 of 65 38% 17 of 57 5 of 5 3 of 3 23 of 62 1 of 1 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Borjas vs. Joshua Van
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-218), Borjas (+180)

Round 1
A pair of once-beaten whirling dervish flyweights will take center stage next in a fight that might not last terribly long. Both Van (8-1, 1-0 UFC) and Borjas (9-1, 0-0 UFC) celebrate one decision apiece, so referee Mike Beltran is ready to intervene at a moment’s notice given their respective paces. They do not bother touching gloves before going about their business. Van prods out early with a low kick as Borjas misses on range-finding jabs, but Borjas manages to find the target once or twice. Van jabs to the midsection, and Borjas turns his hips into a leg kick. When Van does not acknowledge it, Borjas kicks the same spot. This prompts Van to his own low kick, in which Borjas retaliates immediately with a front kick to the midsection. Borjas circles back, pops out a leg kick, and gets chin-checked with a sharp jab. Borjas replies with a solid strike, and both men are largely aiming single strikes at one another. They go tit-for-tat with jabs and leg kicks, with neither showing a large advantage, although Van puts a little more into his strikes that mostly go wide. Borjas pokes the midsection with the ball of his foot, and Van chambers and fires two stern calf kicks in a hurry. Borjas continues feeding Van a steady diet of frustrating jabs, although those and his kicks are largely all that connect until he jumps forward with a switch kick and tags Van with a right hand. Borjas spins with a wheel kick that grazes off the guard, and he rushes at his opponent and hurts Van with a right hand and sets the youngster on his seat. Van shakes out the cobwebs as Borjas crashes forward and drills him in the chest with a jump knee. Van ricochets off the fencing and looks for counters, but Borjas is able to evade the brunt of them and strike back. A number of jabs and hefty leg kicks find their home for “El Gallo Negro,” and he runs forward in pursuit of a left hook that Van narrowly evades. When Van resets, Borjas slams his shin on the calf of his foe. Borjas sticks and moves with his jab, and he sneaks a front kick in and is driven back with a left hook from the fighter born in Myanmar. Borjas races forward, the bridge of Van’s nose trickling blood, and he ties Van up in a clinch against the fence until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Borjas
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Borjas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Borjas

Round 2
The second round opens with the two testing one another, but the pace picks up in a hurry when Van starts to crowd his opponent. Borjas leans back and belts Van with a left hook, and Van bounces away and recovers. Borjas keeps on his bike as Van pursues him, picking away with jabs and leg kicks as Van closes in. Borjas changes levels, only to go up high with a big one-two, and Van sways and looks to loop two punches together in response. Van walks face-first into a jump knee and does not bat an eye, and Borjas whips a kick to the body to follow. Van embodies his “The Fearless” nickname by striding forward, unfazed, and he connects with a big right hand on the jaw. Van finds his range with a short combination that ends with a head kick, and he rips the body when Borjas looks to escape. Van marks up the Peruvian with a number of head and body shots, and he backs off to measure a spinning wheel kick that careens off the shoulder. Van digs two heavy shots to the body and goes up top, and he continues working the midsection with a litany of strikes. As Borjas drops his hand, Van boots him upside the face. Borjas steels himself and nails Van in the face with a right hand, and Van completely shrugs it off and continues his high-pressure approach. Borjas keeps away, not letting Van crowd or corner him, but Van is still able to find the liver with a left hand. Van sneaks in a number of jabs and lets Borjas overswing in a counter, and he eats a left hand and keeps right on plodding forward. Van continues to mix his strikes up to the head and body, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Van
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 3
The two flyweights reach the final frame, and Van is ready to pick up right where he left off and sticks out a number of jabs in rapid succession. Van targets the lead leg when not jabbing, and Borjas responds with a right to the breadbasket and a clapping calf kick. Borjas sits down on counters, connecting cleanly with a few, but Van no-sells them and fires right back fearlessly. When Borjas swings hard, Van level changes and lifts Borjas up so he can slam him down. Borjas scrambles, allowing Van to drop back and pursue a leglock. Borjas is able to break the submission setup up so he can stand up, and they both so do. Van continues to press the pace, and he connects with numerous shots before attempting a single-leg takedown. The 22-year-old bails on it so he can open up with strikes to the head, which then allow him to work the body. The offense of Van continues to keep his foe guessing, and Borjas tries to retaliate and counter with step-in knees or other single powerful blows, but Van largely sees them coming and blocks or dodges them. Van jabs up high, punches the body and then kicks low to light up all targets like the dummy on “Three Ninjas.” Van shows no sign of slowing, flowing with offense and chaining strikes together. Borjas tags him with a jump knee, and Van takes a right hand on the chin that shakes him up. A rattled Van maintains the composure to get hold of a body lock and throw Borjas down to the mat, and he quickly steps over to half guard. From there, Van sneaks into side control and looks to maintain a crucifix that turns into a scarf hold with an armlock. Borjas brilliantly sweeps “The Fearless” and dumps him on his back, where he uses the position to take the back. As Van continues to move wildly, he gets back on top. Van rides out the round on top with a few ground strikes, concluding a thrilling 15-minute affair.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)

The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Kevin Borjas via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Angelo picks Van, citing his patience, cardio, and grappling advantage. He thinks Van can avoid Borjas' combinations and use takedowns. He avoids betting due to the short odds and Van's youth, but believes Van is the more well-rounded fighter.

"Josh is going to be the pick here I'm going to avoid betting especially at the two to1 odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Big Brady picks Joshua Van to win by second-round knockout. He is impressed by Van's power for a flyweight and his slick submission game. He notes Borjas is willing to eat one to give one and has been hurt before, which is dangerous against a power puncher like Van. Brady trusts Van's durability and defensive soundness in what he expects to be a war.

Van by second-round knockout
"Give me Joshua Van to win this fight, I'll take him to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Cody picks Van, impressed by his debut win over Zhalgas Zhumagulov on short notice. He notes Van's footwork, timing, and athleticism, and thinks he'll only improve with a full camp. He expects Van to outpoint Borjas with counters and maybe mix in takedowns.

"van full Camp getting older look good to me man so I gotta I got to go with him here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Van has a huge technical striking advantage over Borjas, being too slick and fast on the feet. Even if Borjas tries to take it to the ground, Van has improved takedown defense and submission ability off his back. Borjas has faced poor competition and this is too big a step up. Expects Van to run away with the fight and possibly find a finish later on.

"I like van here and I wouldn't even be surprised if van ends up finding a finish later on in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Paul picks Van, noting his impressive performance against Zhumagulov and his cardio. He thinks Van's striking and movement will be too much for Borjas, who is making his UFC debut. He sees Van as a legitimate prospect.

"van was pretty impressive against Jus for a 21y old kid... I'm with you van is the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joshua Van

The MMA Guru picks Joshua Van, impressed by his debut win over Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He notes Van's composed striking, good jab, low kicks, and Muay Thai style. He thinks Van is better than Kevin Borjas and will win with his striking technique.

"I'm gonna go with Joshua van I was really impressed with Joshua Van's debut... I just think his striking technique is going to be the difference in this fight"