Career Averages - Danny Chavez
Career Averages - T.J. Brown
Danny Chavez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Ramos | 1 | 4 of 14 | 28% | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricardo Ramos | 1 | 4 of 14 | 28% | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Ramos | 4 of 14 | 28% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Chavez | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricardo Ramos | 4 of 14 | 28% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Chavez | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ricardo Ramos by decision, citing his ability to adjust his game plan based on opponent (striking vs grappler). He notes Ramos' dangerous striking and BJJ, and believes he will win the first two rounds and survive the third. He acknowledges Danny Chavez's toughness and durability.
Big Brady picks Ricardo Ramos to win by decision. He notes Ramos is nine years younger, has a five-inch reach advantage, and is improving at a good gym. He believes Chavez is dangerous early with power but fades, and Ramos can mix in takedowns and win a decision if he survives the first round.
Cody picks Ramos, citing his BJJ, reach advantage, and improving striking. He notes Chavez's low volume and lack of finishing ability. He thinks Ramos can win by submission or decision and suggests Ramos by submission at +400.
Daniel Levi picks Ricardo Ramos, believing the 26-year-old has high potential and will finally put together a complete performance. He notes Ramos has shown flashes of brilliance and has good wins, while Danny Chavez is a finished product at 35. Levi warns about Chavez's calf kicks but thinks Ramos can avoid them and win everywhere else. He is confident Ramos will get the job done.
Paul likes Ramos' skill set but is wary of the -300 price. He thinks Ramos should win but the line is too high. He agrees with Cody's assessment of Chavez's limitations.
The MMA Guru picks Ricardo Ramos, citing his youth (26 vs 35), reach advantage, and recent good performances. He believes Ramos has found himself at featherweight and has unorthodox techniques. He worries about Chavez's calf kicks but thinks the range difference will allow Ramos to control engagements. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 41 of 110 | 37% | 53 of 122 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 48 of 77 | 62% | 80 of 114 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 9 of 31 | 29% | 9 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 15 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 29 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 44 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 41 of 110 | 37% | 25 of 81 | 7 of 14 | 9 of 15 | 28 of 91 | 10 of 16 | 3 of 3 |
| Danny Chavez | 48 of 77 | 62% | 9 of 28 | 15 of 20 | 24 of 29 | 42 of 68 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 9 of 31 | 29% | 2 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Chavez | 14 of 19 | 73% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 15 of 47 | 31% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Chavez | 22 of 39 | 56% | 3 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 17 | 21 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 17 of 32 | 53% | 14 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 9 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Danny Chavez | 12 of 19 | 63% | 3 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Kai Kamaka III in what he calls the toughest fight to call on the card. He favors Kamaka's youth and higher volume, noting that Chavez is low-volume and was exposed by Jared Gordon. However, he acknowledges both fighters have flaws and can be taken down. He predicts a decision win for Kamaka.
Cody leans towards Danny Chavez, citing Kamaka's poor cardio and Chavez's leg kicks and smart game plan. He notes that Kamaka starts strong but fades, and Chavez has shown he can exploit that. Cody believes Chavez can win a decision or even get a finish if Kamaka gasses. He sees value in Chavez at near pick'em odds.
Levi thinks Kamaka has a couple of physical advantages and believes he will edge out a close fight. He references Kamaka's controversial loss to TJ Brown as a robbery, suggesting Kamaka deserved the win. Levi acknowledges Chavez's durability and calf kicks but leans with Kamaka to get it done, though he admits the fight could be close and competitive.
Chavez trains at MMA Masters and uses calf kicks effectively. Kamaka struggles when opponents push the pace and get their own game going. Chavez should target the calf kick early to slow Kamaka, then mix in striking and takedowns. Kamaka is on short notice, which favors Chavez. Even money is a slight advantage for Chavez.
Paul also picks Danny Chavez, agreeing with Cody's reasoning. He notes that Chavez has a clear path to victory with leg kicks and takedowns, and that Kamaka's cardio is a major liability. Paul is not extremely confident but sees Chavez as the slight favorite in a close fight.
The MMA Guru picks Danny Chavez over Kai Kamaka III, noting that Chavez's main weakness is grappling, but Kamaka is not a grappler. He expects Chavez to chop at Kamaka's lead leg with calf kicks, as Kamaka sits heavy on his lead leg. He predicts Chavez will win by unanimous decision 29-28, with Kamaka possibly winning the first round but fading as the fight goes on.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gordon | 0 | 82 of 131 | 62% | 138 of 191 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 6:07 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 39 of 113 | 34% | 42 of 116 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Gordon | 0 | 36 of 61 | 59% | 36 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jared Gordon | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 57 of 74 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:32 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 8 of 20 | 40% | 9 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Jared Gordon | 0 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 45 of 56 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 11 of 44 | 25% | 13 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gordon | 82 of 131 | 62% | 41 of 89 | 19 of 20 | 22 of 22 | 67 of 110 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 13 |
| Danny Chavez | 39 of 113 | 34% | 23 of 91 | 5 of 8 | 11 of 14 | 38 of 112 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Gordon | 36 of 61 | 59% | 15 of 39 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 15 | 34 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Chavez | 20 of 49 | 40% | 13 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Gordon | 19 of 32 | 59% | 13 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 |
| Danny Chavez | 8 of 20 | 40% | 3 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Gordon | 27 of 38 | 71% | 13 of 24 | 9 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 30 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
| Danny Chavez | 11 of 44 | 25% | 7 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Capping off the shortened preliminary card due to multiple recent bout scratches is another catchweight contest, this time at 150 pounds. Ahead of his match, Gordon (16-4, 4-3 UFC) missed weight by four pounds before facing Chavez (11-3, 1-0 UFC), but he redeemed himself with a walkout from the band Genesis. The Octagon ranger for this catchweight bout is referee Herb Dean, who sees no touch of gloves take place. Chavez wings a few single shots early, but he is more finding his range than connecting with anything. Gordon blocks a high kick and takes a leg kick, but as soon as the leg kick comes at him, he charges forward to throw strikes. Chavez circles away and sticks Gordon with a right hand, but it does not back “Flash” off one bit. Gordon strings together a trip of punches, absorbs a leg kick and fires off a left hook that glances off the target. “Flash” scores a low kick on his way in, where the two start trading heavy leather. Chavez successfully backs Gordon off with his punches, but only for a moment before Gordon bears down on him again, pressing forward with a clinch that leads to a single knee. Gordon kicks low and gets countered with two punches, and the two are biting down on their gumshields and swinging. As Chavez looks to back his man away, he throws an inside leg kick that claps off the cup and forces a pause in the tense exchange. Gordon cracks a joke while recovering, and needs 45 seconds before he has Dean clap them back in. “Flash” fires off a series of leg kicks, prompting Chavez to give him one back and loop a right hand to the body. Gordon just barely ducks a spinning wheel kick in time, and he puts together several low kicks. As Gordon looks to attack, Chavez kicks his leg out from beneath him, but he cannot capitalize on the position. Instead, Gordon springs back up and goes on the offensive, landing a few punches that make Chavez bounce off the wall. Gordon sticks him with a knee and an overhand right, forcing “The Colombian Warrior” to reset and duck several strikes. Both get off leg kicks, and Gordon rings Chavez’ bell with a left hand before shooting in for a takedown. Chavez stuffs it but absorbs a heavy knee, and a kick to the calf followed by a head kick that strikes his back gives him pause. Gordon sticks and moves, cracking Chavez with a few punches but eating a few of his own as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Chavez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Round 2
Chavez begins the round with a leg kick that makes Gordon immediately lift his leg up, and he pushes through it to take the fight down. Gordon hits the ground and bounces back up, where he ties Chavez up against the fencing before they break. “Flash” scores a one-two, and he walks through a low kick and a few punches to target the body. Chavez lands kicks to the body and leg, before scoring a right hand across the bow. Gordon sees a spinning wheel kick coming and once more ducks it, and hurts Chavez with a few punches before shooting in for a takedown. When Chavez stands him up, Gordon ties him up and drags him down. In his foe’s guard, Gordon postures up and lands a few punches before getting pulled down and tied up. A few more punches from Gordon mount, and Chavez tries and fails to sit up and escape, but “Flash” keeps him grounded. When Chavez stuck against the fence, Gordon drills him on the chin with a couple fierce punches. There is nowhere for Chavez’ head to go, as it cannot bounce off the floor as it is trapped on the corner of the fence and the canvas. As Gordon keeps striking, Chavez thinks to tie up the guard but gets elbowed to open it up. Chavez kicks off, but Gordon is instantly on him to keep him planted on his back. Gordon works hammerfists while Chavez aims to earn a referee standup by simply tying Gordon up. Gordon sits up and lands a couple stern punches to make Chavez buck and twist. With seconds left in the round, Gordon passes guard and slashes down a few elbows, but the time elapses before he can get any major damage done.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Round 3
Chavez’ first strike is a booming head kick, and Gordon ducks down to avoid it. “The Colombian Warrior” throws kick after kick, to the body and legs, and Gordon ignores them as he pushes the pace. Both men nail one another with leg kicks, and their legs may be compromised and swollen but they do not appear very hampered from them. Two punches from Chavez clip Gordon, and Gordon ducks down for a takedown attempt but gets rebuffed. Chavez goes on the aggression with a few big punches, and Gordon throws right back furiously. Gordon tries to push through into a takedown, and Chavez lets him fall on his face before allowing Gordon to stand up. Chavez lands a few punches, and Gordon interrupts a combination with a jab that snaps Chavez’ head back. There is a wild brawl that sees Gordon get tagged a few times, forcing “Flash” to lift his foe’s leg up and hits a takedown. Comfortable in his adversary’s full guard, Gordon lands occasional strikes while precious seconds tick off the clock for Chavez. “The Colombian Warrior” ties up Gordon with his full guard, only to open it up again when Gordon punches through it. Chavez remains flat on his back as he alternates between closed and open guard, which keeps him safe from most of the damage but also is a bad place for him. Chavez squirms and backs off, where he sits up and gets to a knee. Gordon throws a knee, but pulls it back right before it lands as Chavez is grounded. Gordon backs away, and charges forward to take the fight back down. As Gordon pushes Chavez into the clinch to halt furious offense from his foe, he holds on tight to ride out the fight and likely notch a win. Chavez kicks and flails to break the grip, but Gordon’s body lock control allows him to push Chavez to a knee. Chavez breaks free, springs in with a knee that bounces off Gordon’s face, and tries to throw a few punches only to get tied up to the final bell. We have now reached the scorecards for the first time of the night.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (29-28 Gordon)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
The Official Result
Jared Gordon def. Danny Chavez via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Daniel Levi acknowledges Danny Chavez's impressive debut and explosive calf kicks, but worries about Chavez's pace and whether he can maintain it. He thinks if Jared Gordon can survive the first round without taking fight-changing damage, his pressure and takedowns can wear down Chavez in the later rounds. Levi notes Gordon's experience against top competition and believes he is being disrespected. He picks Gordon to win a gritty decision, but admits he might be wrong and Chavez could knock him out.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 43 of 139 | 30% | 59 of 156 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 49 of 110 | 44% | 52 of 113 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Chavez | 0 | 12 of 42 | 28% | 12 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 17 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Danny Chavez | 0 | 12 of 45 | 26% | 18 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 | |
| 3 | Danny Chavez | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 29 of 62 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 12 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Chavez | 43 of 139 | 30% | 25 of 103 | 12 of 24 | 6 of 12 | 38 of 132 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 49 of 110 | 44% | 23 of 81 | 8 of 9 | 18 of 20 | 40 of 97 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Chavez | 12 of 42 | 28% | 4 of 29 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 17 of 36 | 47% | 4 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 13 | 17 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Danny Chavez | 12 of 45 | 26% | 7 of 33 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 7 | 12 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 20 of 43 | 46% | 13 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 | |
| 3 | Danny Chavez | 19 of 52 | 36% | 14 of 41 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 45 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 12 of 31 | 38% | 6 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Big Brady likes T.J. Brown's wrestling and ground game, expecting him to dominate and possibly get a submission. He notes Brown's chin is a concern but thinks Chavez's ground game is inferior. He would bet if the line gets closer.
Daniel Levi picks Danny Chavez by finish. He notes that T.J. Brown has durability issues, often getting knocked out or submitted even when winning. He believes Chavez's black belt is legit and that he can catch Brown. However, he admits he knows little about Chavez beyond a head-kick knockout and a photo with a black belt. He feels Brown is mentally fragile and prone to getting finished.
The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown, citing his dangerous grappling and training with Bryce Mitchell. He expects Chavez to come out overzealous looking for a quick finish, which will allow Brown to secure a takedown and control the fight on the ground.
T.J. Brown - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 95 of 146 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 | 1 | 8:09 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 45 of 86 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 53 of 80 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:32 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 28 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 1 | 2:49 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 32 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:44 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:48 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 11 of 33 | 33% | 8 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 15 of 50 | 30% | 11 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 2 of 11 | 18% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 4 of 13 | 30% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 7 of 16 | 43% | 4 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 9 of 29 | 31% | 7 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans T.J. Brown despite his suspect takedown defense and chin, because he believes Brown's pressure and grappling will be enough to outwork the aging Elkins. He notes Brown has never been knocked out and expects him to win, but he wants to wait for the line to tighten before betting.
Big Brady picks Darren Elkins for the upset by third-round finish. He notes T.J. Brown has poor fight IQ and takedown defense, and often makes mistakes. He worries about Elkins' age and recent injuries but expects Brown to gas out or make a mistake, allowing Elkins to take over late.
Cody picks Elkins, arguing that Brown has a history of losing when favored and that Elkins finds ways to win. He notes that Brown fades in later rounds and has poor takedown defense, while Elkins has a grinding style and excellent cardio. Cody believes Elkins can take Brown down and wear him out, especially after the first round.
The host picks T.J. Brown to win inside the distance, expecting him to bite down on his mouthpiece and land big shots early. He notes Brown's speed and power advantage over the aging Elkins, and suggests avoiding the moneyline in favor of the plus money prop. He predicts a first-round stoppage.
Paul picks Elkins, citing his toughness and ability to grind out wins. He notes that Brown has a fast start but fades, and that Elkins has fought much tougher competition. Paul believes Elkins' wrestling and cardio will be too much for Brown, and that Elkins can survive the early storm and take over.
The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown over Darren Elkins. He praises Brown's performance against Bill Algeo despite the loss, and notes Brown trains with Bryce Mitchell in grappling, so he won't be outwrestled. He criticizes Elkins as a geriatric old man at 39 who has taken too much damage, citing his loss to Jonathan Pearce. He believes Brown is in his prime and can go three hard rounds, winning by decision or big shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Algeo | 1 | 64 of 110 | 58% | 77 of 123 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:42 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 46 of 91 | 50% | 49 of 94 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Algeo | 0 | 45 of 85 | 52% | 48 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 39 of 77 | 50% | 42 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Bill Algeo | 1 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 29 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:39 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Algeo | 64 of 110 | 58% | 44 of 81 | 6 of 13 | 14 of 16 | 48 of 94 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 11 |
| T.J. Brown | 46 of 91 | 50% | 34 of 78 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 33 of 76 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Algeo | 45 of 85 | 52% | 26 of 59 | 6 of 12 | 13 of 14 | 43 of 83 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 39 of 77 | 50% | 28 of 65 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 64 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bill Algeo | 19 of 25 | 76% | 18 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 11 |
| T.J. Brown | 7 of 14 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks T.J. Brown as an underdog, citing his high pace, solid striking, and good grappling with almost 4 takedowns per fight. He notes Algeo's takedown defense is poor (38%) and that Algeo doesn't use his wrestling offensively. He expects Brown to get takedowns, set the pace, and win a decision. He has a quarter-unit bet on Brown at +140.
Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes Algeo's poor takedown defense but excellent get-up game and scrambling. He expects Brown to have early success with takedowns but tire, allowing Algeo to take over and potentially submit him, as Brown has been submitted before.
Cody notes Algeo's takedown defense is poor (55%) but his cardio and BJJ are excellent. He expects Brown to get early takedowns but fade, allowing Algeo to take over with volume. He sees Algeo winning by decision or late stoppage.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Algeo's strong start doesn't walk him into danger and that Algeo's pressure and range control will allow him to rack up damage early. He also mentions Algeo's height advantage and active kicking game.
Algeo's unorthodox striking and scrambling ability will be too much for Brown. Brown's path to victory is grappling, but Algeo is hard to hold down and creates scrambles. Algeo's cardio and striking volume should win rounds. Expect a decision, as both are durable and finishes are unlikely.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Algeo's cardio and Jiu-Jitsu. He thinks Brown's wrestling will be effective early but he'll tire, and Algeo will take over in later rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo, citing his unorthodox striking, length, and takedown defense (55%). He believes Algeo will keep the fight standing and outpoint Brown, who relies on wrestling. He notes Brown's recent win over Eric Silva but thinks Algeo's tricky style and output will edge a close fight.
Zane picks Algeo because he starts strong and puts too much information into TJ Brown's computer for him to adjust in time. He notes Algeo's hyper-aggressive style, good kicking game, and height advantage, and believes Brown's slow starts will cost him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 24 of 38 | 63% | 82 of 109 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 2 | 9:43 |
| Erik Silva | 0 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 32 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 1 | 2:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 21 of 29 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 3:01 |
| Erik Silva | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 14 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:35 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 36 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:14 |
| Erik Silva | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 14 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 25 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Erik Silva | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 24 of 38 | 63% | 20 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 6 |
| Erik Silva | 21 of 29 | 72% | 12 of 19 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 10 of 14 | 71% | 8 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Erik Silva | 9 of 11 | 81% | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 7 of 14 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Erik Silva | 10 of 15 | 66% | 6 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 7 of 10 | 70% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 |
| Erik Silva | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Erik Silva because he believes Silva's grappling pressure and control will be too much for T.J. Brown. He notes that Brown has poor takedown defense (41%) and makes poor decisions in fights, creating scrambles he can't win. Silva is an aggressive grappler who marches forward and looks to get the fight to the ground, where he controls opponents. Angelo expects Silva to bully Brown and win via control.
Big Brady picks Erik Silva, citing Silva's impressive grappling and ground-and-pound, while criticizing T.J. Brown's poor fight IQ and lackluster performances. He notes Silva has faced weaker competition but Brown has been knocked out and submitted multiple times. He expects Silva to catch Brown in a submission in the second round, but admits he is not very confident.
Cody leans Silva, citing his explosiveness and power. He notes Brown's cardio and durability issues, and that Brown may tire himself out with takedowns. He thinks Silva can exploit Brown's low hands and lack of head movement. He suggests under 1.5 rounds as a prop.
Daniel Levi picks Erik Silva, despite Silva's untested competition. He criticizes T.J. Brown for being prone to getting dropped and submitted, calling him 'not the brightest.' Levi likes Silva's size, ground-and-pound, elbows, and kicks. He notes Silva has been past the first round before. While he wishes he knew more about Silva, he trusts him over Brown, who he says will likely get dropped and choked out.
Lock favors T.J. Brown because he is more proven and represents a step up in competition for Erik Silva. He notes that Silva has only finishes on his regional record but may falter against decent competition, showing cardio issues or being unable to handle being the nail instead of the hammer. Lock does not have a bet on it himself, as he doesn't see Brown as super reliable, but from a narrative and PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks Brown has the edge.
Paul leans Silva, noting Brown's inconsistency and the turmoil at Glory MMA. He thinks Silva's power and explosiveness could be the difference, but acknowledges it's a coin flip. He is not confident and considers it a pass for now.
The MMA Guru picks Erik Silva over T.J. Brown, arguing that Silva is a step above bottom-level UFC featherweights and has shown good potential. He criticizes Brown for only beating very low-level opponents and barely scraping by, while Silva is more experienced and has a good record. He predicts a decision win for Silva.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 1 | 47 of 79 | 59% | 86 of 121 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 7:32 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 42 of 99 | 42% | 58 of 125 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 4 | 2 | 2:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 1 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 30 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 24 of 49 | 48% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 17 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 2:47 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 7 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 3 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 39 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:28 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 47 of 79 | 59% | 41 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 61 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 16 |
| T.J. Brown | 42 of 99 | 42% | 30 of 86 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 36 of 92 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 22 of 42 | 52% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| T.J. Brown | 24 of 49 | 48% | 15 of 39 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
| T.J. Brown | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 20 of 29 | 68% | 19 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| T.J. Brown | 16 of 41 | 39% | 13 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks T.J. Brown, believing he can win either the grappling or kickboxing exchanges. He notes both fighters have poor takedown defense, so the fight may come down to who shoots first. He worries about Brown's defensive wrestling but expects Brown to initiate and get takedowns, leading to a win.
Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by first-round submission. He believes Brown's grappling is superior and that Nuerdanbieke is one-dimensional (wrestling only) with poor takedown defense (33%) and has been submitted six times. He notes Brown's submission skills (arm triangle) and that he nearly submitted Charles Rosa. He warns that Brown's fight IQ and cardio are questionable, but expects an early submission. He calls it a bad matchup for Nuerdanbieke.
Cody thinks Brown is the better wrestler and grappler, and has a striking advantage. He notes Nuerdanbieke's poor striking and inability to finish takedowns. He expects Brown to win by decision.
Paul agrees, pointing out Nuerdanbieke's low output and poor takedown stats. He thinks Brown's pressure and striking will look better to the judges.
The host picks T.J. Brown, citing his training with Bryce Mitchell as beneficial for grappling. He believes Brown will stuff takedowns as Shayilan slows down, and win the second and third rounds via decision. He notes Shayilan's wins are not impressive and he lost clearly to Joshua Culibao.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 58 of 99 | 58% | 88 of 141 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 3 | 2 | 7:39 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 46 of 107 | 42% | 71 of 132 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 2:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 38 of 70 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 34 of 73 | 46% | 39 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 29 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 3:34 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 21 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 58 of 99 | 58% | 46 of 85 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 49 of 87 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 7 |
| Charles Rosa | 46 of 107 | 42% | 21 of 76 | 5 of 10 | 20 of 21 | 42 of 99 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 35 of 67 | 52% | 26 of 56 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 60 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Rosa | 34 of 73 | 46% | 14 of 49 | 5 of 9 | 15 of 15 | 34 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 16 of 23 | 69% | 14 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Charles Rosa | 9 of 24 | 37% | 4 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Rosa | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 |
Big Brady questions T.J. Brown's fight IQ, recalling his poor game plan against Danny Chavez. However, he notes Brown's striking improvements and training at Glory MMA with Bryce Mitchell. He thinks Brown can win if he mixes in takedowns against Benitez's 56% takedown defense, but he cannot trust Brown enough to bet him. He picks Brown as a dog pick but is not confident.
Cody leans toward Brown, citing the blueprint of taking Rosa down and holding him there. He notes Brown's wrestling should be effective. However, he is wary of Brown's low fight IQ and the short notice change. He calls -280 too risky for parlays.
Daniel Levi picks T.J. Brown, though he is uncomfortable laying -250. He notes that Brown is better than he has shown, but his chin is questionable and he gets dropped often. However, Levi believes Brown will outwork Charles Rosa, who is on short notice and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Brown's physicality and wrestling will be key, and that Rosa's best days are behind him. Levi expects Brown to win, possibly by finish.
The host picks Gabriel Benitez, praising his southpaw striking, body kicks, and leg kicks. He expects Benitez to use his technical striking to outwork T.J. Brown, who is more chaotic and less technical. The host notes Brown's power and BJJ but believes Benitez's cardio and striking accuracy will secure a decision. He compares the matchup to Brown's loss to Danny Chavez, where leg kicks were effective.
Paul leans toward Rosa as a dog, citing his win-loss streak pattern and submission threat. He notes Rosa's takedown defense is poor but Brown's fight IQ is low. He expects Rosa might catch Brown in a submission. He advises waiting for weigh-ins and possibly better odds.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa (Gabriel Benitez) to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Benitez has devastating kicks, especially calf kicks, which will slow Brown down early. Brown has shown problems with kicks in the past (e.g., against Danny Chavez). He expects Benitez to chop at the legs and body, then clip Brown with a big shot when Brown tries to make something happen. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Brown getting dropped with no base.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 1 | 61 of 128 | 47% | 85 of 155 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:38 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 82 of 211 | 38% | 110 of 243 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 34 of 88 | 38% | 35 of 91 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 1 | 26 of 49 | 53% | 40 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 24 of 69 | 34% | 40 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 22 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:09 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 35 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 61 of 128 | 47% | 38 of 100 | 14 of 17 | 9 of 11 | 51 of 115 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 12 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 82 of 211 | 38% | 54 of 174 | 19 of 26 | 9 of 11 | 77 of 204 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 22 of 47 | 46% | 11 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 9 | 18 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 34 of 88 | 38% | 17 of 63 | 9 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 33 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 26 of 49 | 53% | 18 of 40 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 24 of 69 | 34% | 19 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 13 of 32 | 40% | 9 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 24 of 54 | 44% | 18 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by decision, taking a shot on the underdog. He believes Brown's wrestling and grappling are superior, and that Brown can take Kamaka down and wear him out. Brady notes that Kamaka slows down as fights progress and has poor grappling off his back. He also mentions Brown's full training camp at Glory MMA with James Krause, which he sees as a positive. Brady thinks the line should be closer to a pick'em.
Cody sees T.J. Brown as a live underdog now that he is training with James Krause at Glory MMA. He notes that Brown has a submission game and grappling prowess, but his cardio is a major concern. He thinks if Brown uses a proper game plan and doesn't gas out, he can take down Kamaka and submit him. He points out that Kamaka has looked unimpressive, with losses to low-level opponents and a close win over Tony Kelley. He believes Krause's coaching can help Brown manage his energy and fight smart.
Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win, citing his potential as a prospect and the fact that T.J. Brown has a weak chin and poor fight IQ. He notes that Kamaka's last loss was on short notice with a bad weight cut, and that he has since moved to a better training camp. Levi believes Kamaka can outwork Brown if he stays off his back.
The host picks T.J. Brown by submission, expecting him to take down Kai Kamaka and wear him out. He notes Kamaka's poor cardio and lack of power, while Brown is a grappler who can chain wrestle. He believes Brown will eventually find a submission in the second or third round.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses both fighters' cardio issues and the difficulty in capping the fight. He mentions that Brown's game falls apart if he doesn't finish early, and that Kamaka has looked poor. He does not commit to a side.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kamaka III over T.J. Brown, noting that Kamaka is younger and more committed to his career, while Brown has been beaten eight times and seems to be Bryce Mitchell's sparring partner. He expects Brown to get takedowns in the first round but fade in the later rounds, allowing Kamaka to win the last two rounds and take a 29-28 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 43 of 139 | 30% | 59 of 156 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 49 of 110 | 44% | 52 of 113 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Chavez | 0 | 12 of 42 | 28% | 12 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 17 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Danny Chavez | 0 | 12 of 45 | 26% | 18 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 | |
| 3 | Danny Chavez | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 29 of 62 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 12 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Chavez | 43 of 139 | 30% | 25 of 103 | 12 of 24 | 6 of 12 | 38 of 132 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 49 of 110 | 44% | 23 of 81 | 8 of 9 | 18 of 20 | 40 of 97 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Chavez | 12 of 42 | 28% | 4 of 29 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 17 of 36 | 47% | 4 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 13 | 17 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Danny Chavez | 12 of 45 | 26% | 7 of 33 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 7 | 12 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 20 of 43 | 46% | 13 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 | |
| 3 | Danny Chavez | 19 of 52 | 36% | 14 of 41 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 45 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 12 of 31 | 38% | 6 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Big Brady likes T.J. Brown's wrestling and ground game, expecting him to dominate and possibly get a submission. He notes Brown's chin is a concern but thinks Chavez's ground game is inferior. He would bet if the line gets closer.
Daniel Levi picks Danny Chavez by finish. He notes that T.J. Brown has durability issues, often getting knocked out or submitted even when winning. He believes Chavez's black belt is legit and that he can catch Brown. However, he admits he knows little about Chavez beyond a head-kick knockout and a photo with a black belt. He feels Brown is mentally fragile and prone to getting finished.
The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown, citing his dangerous grappling and training with Bryce Mitchell. He expects Chavez to come out overzealous looking for a quick finish, which will allow Brown to secure a takedown and control the fight on the ground.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Griffin | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:05 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 32 of 47 | 68% | 91 of 119 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Griffin | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:05 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 18 of 24 | 75% | 56 of 70 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:30 | |
| 2 | Jordan Griffin | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 35 of 49 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Griffin | 15 of 23 | 65% | 13 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| T.J. Brown | 32 of 47 | 68% | 26 of 39 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 22 | 10 of 10 | 13 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Griffin | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 18 of 24 | 75% | 13 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 9 of 11 | |
| 2 | Jordan Griffin | 10 of 15 | 66% | 8 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| T.J. Brown | 14 of 23 | 60% | 13 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
Expert Picks (3)
Big Brady likes T.J. Brown's wrestling and ground game, expecting him to dominate and possibly get a submission. He notes Brown's chin is a concern but thinks Chavez's ground game is inferior. He would bet if the line gets closer.
Daniel Levi picks Danny Chavez by finish. He notes that T.J. Brown has durability issues, often getting knocked out or submitted even when winning. He believes Chavez's black belt is legit and that he can catch Brown. However, he admits he knows little about Chavez beyond a head-kick knockout and a photo with a black belt. He feels Brown is mentally fragile and prone to getting finished.
The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown, citing his dangerous grappling and training with Bryce Mitchell. He expects Chavez to come out overzealous looking for a quick finish, which will allow Brown to secure a takedown and control the fight on the ground.
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