UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020 · Lightweight · Completed
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Age 43
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 42
Height 5' 8"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Vinc Pichel
3.78 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.17 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
2.5 TD Avg
51.0% TD Acc.
31.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jim Miller
2.92 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.44 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.5 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
48.0% TD Def.
1.7 Sub. Avg
Vinc Pichel - Fight History
LOSS vs Rafa García
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafa García 0 64 of 120 53% 76 of 136 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:15
Vinc Pichel 0 79 of 182 43% 88 of 191 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafa García 0 12 of 24 50% 19 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:06
Vinc Pichel 0 13 of 38 34% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafa García 0 21 of 49 42% 24 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:23
Vinc Pichel 0 32 of 70 45% 32 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Rafa García 0 31 of 47 65% 33 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:46
Vinc Pichel 0 34 of 74 45% 35 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafa García 64 of 120 53% 49 of 102 12 of 14 3 of 4 59 of 114 4 of 5 1 of 1
Vinc Pichel 79 of 182 43% 32 of 116 27 of 43 20 of 23 74 of 174 4 of 7 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafa García 12 of 24 50% 7 of 17 3 of 4 2 of 3 11 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 13 of 38 34% 7 of 30 2 of 3 4 of 5 12 of 36 0 of 1 1 of 1
2 Rafa García 21 of 49 42% 16 of 44 4 of 4 1 of 1 21 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 32 of 70 45% 12 of 43 13 of 19 7 of 8 29 of 67 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Rafa García 31 of 47 65% 26 of 41 5 of 6 0 of 0 27 of 42 3 of 4 1 of 1
Vinc Pichel 34 of 74 45% 13 of 43 12 of 21 9 of 10 33 of 71 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafa Garcia vs. Vinc Pichel
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-485), Pichel (+370)

Round 1
Twelve years separate the next two competitors, with the younger man a heavy betting favorite. Garcia (16-4, 4-4 UFC) gets a huge pop from the crowd as the first Mexican-born athlete to hit the stage today, while the leisurely paced Pichel (14-4, 7-4 UFC) is showered in boos. The lightweights with a fairly similar amount of combat experience touch gloves before referee Raul Porrata. Pichel keeps his distance early, parrying any incoming fire and letting the energy in favor of Garcia wash over them both. Garcia breaks the silence with a huge overhand right and rips a left to the liver. Pichel responds with a left hook that makes the Mexican fighter back off for a moment, and Garcia measures him with a thudding right hand that makes Pichel have to blink it out repeatedly. Garcia crowds him with a pair of hooks, and he swats away a head kick. Garcia crashes through a low kick to hurl punches, and Pichel keeps a wide berth and stabs out a front kick. Garcia comes up short with haymakers, allowing the elder Pichel to potshot him from a safe distance. When Pichel kicks low, Garcia wings a right hand over the top. Pichel fires back with a vengeance, and Garcia shrugs it off and stays close in front of him but not too close. Garcia scores a single low kick and is jabbed back, and he raises his guard in the nick of time to block an overhand right. Garcia swings wide to the body, forcing Pichel to ricochet off the wall, and he hammers the front leg with a kick. Pichel loads up with a body kick, and Garcia smiles at him and continues to crowd him. Garcia pushes a front kick out of the way to crowd the older fighter, pressing him against the wall while stomping on his toes. Garcia lifts Pichel’s legs up and is about to deposit him to the ground, but Pichel regains his balance. Perhaps in a poor bit of decisionmaking, Pichel spins for a back elbow while tightly pressed to his foe, and this allows Garcia to hit a clean double on him. Garcia rides out the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
The athletes get right back down to business, trading leather early and often. Pichel sneaks in a right hand and slips to the side, and he dips to fire off an uppercut and jogs away to reset. Pichel’s stance switches and awkward movement prevents Garcia from blitzing him on the regular, and he keeps his head on a swivel to not get caught with anything flush. Garcia nevertheless walks him down and blasts him in the face with a crisp right hand, and then chains two more fists behind it. Pichel flashes out his jab, pop pop bang, to keep Garcia from going at him. Pichel pushes off while trying to push his foe’s arm out of the way, and his thumb slides deep into Garcia’s eye socket. Pichel immediately apologizes before Porrata gets between them, and he gives Garcia all the time he needs to recover. Garcia takes it, accepts Pichel’s fervent apology and gets back to walking the aging fighter down. Pichel uses his knee to frame off, and he strings a few punches together behind it. Pichel tosses up a head kick that is blocked in time, and he probes out a right hand before getting his head snapped back with a one-two. Pichel tries to jump his way forward, and he pushes off Garcia’s face and slams his shin on Garcia’s calf. Garcia grimaces and wraps Pichel up in hopes of taking him down. Pichel leans against the wall to keep himself upright, and he postures off and breaks free, where he puts punches and kicks together in rapid succession. Pichel fakes to the body to open up a head shot, and Garcia can only swing big right hands back at him. A few of those get through, and Pichel beans him with a counter overhand right to make him think twice about entering the pocket with his hands low. Pichel comes up swinging with a huge uppercut, and he hand-fights to parry most of the blows aimed at him. Pichel jabs to the head and body, and he splits the guard with a front kick, toes extended towards the target. Garcia lumbers forward swinging heavy leather, and Pichel skirts to the slide and flicks out a few low kicks to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pichel

Round 3
Pichel is fired up to start up the last round, and he channels that energy with frenetic punches and kicks that stop Garcia from getting through to him. Pichel strings a few punches together up top, and Garcia clutches his eye as if he was poked. Pichel claims it was a closed fist that did the damage, and he unloads with flying fists until Garcia steels himself and comes back out swinging. Pichel counters the flailing strikes, but he is taking shots to the body and taking heavy breaths. Garcia continues to put everything behind every one of his swings, while Pichel is more than content to jab and prod. When Garcia looks to charge, Pichel pushes him back with jabs and front kicks, but Garcia decides to pour it on and tags Pichel a few times. Pichel rebounds off the fencing and uses his push kick to redden up Garcia’s midsection. Pichel probers out with straight punches until getting tagged, and he starts swinging back with arc on his punches when not mixing in his front kick. Pichel further keeps things interesting by shooting for a takedown, and Garcia just stands before him and smiles at him. A Pichel front kick bumps the cup, and Garcia wants to keep going so it goes uncalled. Pichel loads up on body kicks and walks through three left hands, kicking Garcia constantly while keeping his distance. The leg kicks to the thigh and calf keep landing for “From Hell,” until Garcia is sick of taking them and just lifts Pichel up and deposits him down to the mat like a sack of potatoes. Pichel scoots his way towards the wall in hopes of walking up it, while Garcia tries to smother him and threaten with an arm-triangle choke. Pichel turns to his knees and stands, and Garcia slugs him in the face with numerous unanswered right hands. Pichel frees himself with seconds to go, and he lets Garcia have it with all his remaining energy. Punches, kicks and knees fly every which way until the final horn blares, signaling an end to what turned into an entertaining scrap.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Vinc Pichel via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Connor picks García, noting his high-output, new-school wrestle-boxing style will overwhelm the aging Pichel. He acknowledges Pichel's toughness and low kicks as potential wrinkles but believes García's pace and boxing will be too much. He is surprised by the wide odds, given García's loss to Chris Gruetzemacher.

"I think Garcia is tailor made to outwork and overwhelm Pichel. Pichel is slow enough that he just doesn't get to do a lot of the stuff he wants to do anymore."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Zane picks García, agreeing that his pace and pressure will be decisive. He notes Pichel's old-school style and lack of speed, comparing him to an aged Jan Błachowicz. Zane thinks García's boxing and wrestling defense are solid, and that Pichel's low kicks are a minor threat.

"I think Garcia is tailor made to outwork and overwhelm Pichel."
LOSS vs Ismael Bonfim
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ismael Bonfim 0 111 of 216 51% 112 of 217 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Vinc Pichel 0 61 of 142 42% 64 of 147 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ismael Bonfim 0 34 of 66 51% 34 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Vinc Pichel 0 18 of 47 38% 18 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:03
2 Ismael Bonfim 0 36 of 75 48% 36 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinc Pichel 0 22 of 54 40% 22 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Ismael Bonfim 0 41 of 75 54% 42 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Vinc Pichel 0 21 of 41 51% 24 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ismael Bonfim 111 of 216 51% 80 of 176 13 of 20 18 of 20 107 of 209 2 of 4 2 of 3
Vinc Pichel 61 of 142 42% 26 of 93 14 of 24 21 of 25 60 of 140 0 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ismael Bonfim 34 of 66 51% 19 of 47 2 of 4 13 of 15 34 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 18 of 47 38% 5 of 29 5 of 10 8 of 8 18 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ismael Bonfim 36 of 75 48% 29 of 66 4 of 6 3 of 3 36 of 74 0 of 1 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 22 of 54 40% 9 of 37 3 of 5 10 of 12 22 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ismael Bonfim 41 of 75 54% 32 of 63 7 of 10 2 of 2 37 of 69 2 of 3 2 of 3
Vinc Pichel 21 of 41 51% 12 of 27 6 of 9 3 of 5 20 of 39 0 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo is confident in Bonfim, citing his youth, power, and aggressive style against the 41-year-old Pichel who hasn't fought in two years. He references the trend of older fighters getting finished at UFC Vegas 91. He advises betting early before odds move.

"Ishmael bonfim is the pick and if you want to bet on him you need to do it now before the odds take over"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady highlights Bonfim's youth and striking advantage, noting Pichel's age (41) and long layoff as major concerns. He believes Bonfim will stuff takedowns and dominate on the feet, leading to a one-sided decision. He acknowledges Pichel's submission threat but doubts he can implement it.

"I'm taking Bonfim to win this fight by a pretty one-sided decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody picks Bonfim, citing his sharp striking, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Pichel is 41, inactive, and has no submission wins. Cody expects Bonfim to win, possibly by decision or late finish.

"I just feel like Bonfim is way sharper..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Daniel Vreeland picks Bonfim by decision, citing his youth, volume striking, and experience despite his age. He notes that Pichel is durable and has low mileage for his age, but Bonfim's boxing and takedown defense should allow him to win minutes on the feet. He believes Bonfim's finishing equity is overrated and that a decision is likely.

Bonfim by decision
"bonim by decision I think he's got some value"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Bonfim stumbled in his last fight against Benoit Saint-Denis but is expected to have a better showing against the 41-year-old Pichel, who has been two years away from the cage. Bonfim is the slicker striker and can stay competitive in grappling if Pichel takes it there. His striking will start to chip away at Pichel and allow him to find a finish in the second or third round.

finish in second or third round
"I think bomfim is the Slicker Striker and can stay in competitive in the grappling R should Pelle look to take it there but I think that bomb F Slicker striking approach will start to C CCH up to Pelle …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Paul picks Bonfim, highlighting his explosive striking and takedown defense. He notes Pichel's inactivity and age are concerns. Paul expects Bonfim to win but acknowledges Pichel's grit could make it competitive.

"I think he's good... he looked really good in the contender series..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The MMA Guru confidently picks Ismael Bonfim, predicting a first-round TKO. He expects Bonfim to push Pichel against the cage and bait him with feints, while noting Pichel's age (41) and over two years of inactivity as key factors. He also mentions Bonfim's good jiu-jitsu and the favorable matchup.

TKO in the first round
"ishmail Bon ferm's gonna go out there and get a TKO in the first round"
LOSS vs Mark Madsen
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mark Madsen 0 68 of 123 55% 88 of 144 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:48
Vinc Pichel 0 39 of 87 44% 57 of 110 3 of 3 100% 0 0 5:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mark Madsen 0 24 of 50 48% 24 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Vinc Pichel 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
2 Mark Madsen 0 22 of 41 53% 25 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Vinc Pichel 0 13 of 34 38% 15 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
3 Mark Madsen 0 22 of 32 68% 39 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Vinc Pichel 0 8 of 15 53% 24 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mark Madsen 68 of 123 55% 32 of 78 21 of 30 15 of 15 53 of 106 10 of 11 5 of 6
Vinc Pichel 39 of 87 44% 27 of 75 1 of 1 11 of 11 32 of 78 3 of 5 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mark Madsen 24 of 50 48% 7 of 25 8 of 16 9 of 9 21 of 46 2 of 3 1 of 1
Vinc Pichel 18 of 38 47% 9 of 29 0 of 0 9 of 9 18 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mark Madsen 22 of 41 53% 11 of 29 7 of 8 4 of 4 18 of 37 4 of 4 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 13 of 34 38% 10 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2
3 Mark Madsen 22 of 32 68% 14 of 24 6 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 23 4 of 4 4 of 5
Vinc Pichel 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 9 2 of 4 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Mark Madsen

Angelo picks Mark Madsen despite being surprised that Pichel is the favorite. He notes Madsen's Olympic wrestling background and improved striking, as shown in his win over Clay Guida. He expects Madsen to use takedowns similar to Gregor Gillespie's approach, though he acknowledges Pichel's movement could trouble Madsen on the feet.

Moneyline bet on Madsen; odds are confusing but he likes the bet.
"i like mark here i think the odds uh are a little wide they're definitely confusing me i'm gonna go moneyline bet on mark matson"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mark Madsen

Big Brady picks Mark Madsen to win a close decision, likely split. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling should dominate early rounds, but his cardio is a concern as he faded in the third round against Austin Hubbard. Pichel has terrible takedown defense (25%) but is tough and wins the third round. Brady thinks Madsen edges the second round to win.

"give me mark mattis matson to win this one i think it's probably going to be a split as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Vinc Pichel

Cody is on the same page as Paul, picking Pichel. He notes Madsen's wrestling is explosive but lacks top control, leading to gassing. Cody points out Madsen's susceptibility to leg kicks and Pichel's nasty low kick. He thinks Pichel's chaos and pressure will break Madsen, similar to how he broke Austin Hubbard. Cody expects Pichel to win, possibly by decision but hopes for a third-round finish.

"yeah i'm largely on the exact same page as you i got vince michelle pre-fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Mark Madsen

Levi believes Mark Madsen is improving with each fight, showing better cardio and striking. He notes Vinc Pichel's takedown defense is not great and that Madsen's wrestling should be a big advantage. He thinks the fight should be a pick'em, so at plus money he is taking Madsen to win a decision by securing the first two rounds.

"i took mark madsen at plus 118 i beat that line"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Vinc Pichel

I think Pichel is the much better striker and has improving wrestling. Madsen needs to get an early finish or he will fade. Pichel has a good gas tank and will wear on Madsen. I see Pichel finding a knockout later in the fight, likely in the third round.

"I do think he goes out there and has a solid enough performance here against Madsen puts his strikes together finds that knockout probably later in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Vinc Pichel

Paul is confident in Pichel, having already bet him at -122 and -127. He notes Madsen's poor cardio and inability to hold opponents down, as seen against Clay Guida. Paul emphasizes Pichel's leg kicks targeting Madsen's lead leg, which Madsen leaves exposed. He predicts Pichel wins by TKO in round 3, as Madsen fades. Paul also likes Pichel round 3 at +1600.

Pichel round 3 +1600, Pichel by TKO
"i think vince michelle wins i've got him on the money line already i'm going to be adding a little bit more"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Vinc Pichel

The MMA Guru picks Vinc Pichel, unimpressed by Mark Madsen's grappling. He expects Madsen to win the first round via takedowns but fade, with Pichel's cardio and ability to get up leading to a 29-28 decision. He notes that Pichel beat Austin Hubbard more convincingly than Madsen did.

"i'm gonna go vince paquel over mark madsen i ain't impressed by mark madsen"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vinc Pichel 0 71 of 160 44% 96 of 187 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:29
Austin Hubbard 0 56 of 152 36% 66 of 171 4 of 7 57% 0 0 2:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vinc Pichel 0 21 of 55 38% 27 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Austin Hubbard 0 22 of 58 37% 24 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
2 Vinc Pichel 0 27 of 63 42% 34 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
Austin Hubbard 0 19 of 52 36% 24 of 58 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:51
3 Vinc Pichel 0 23 of 42 54% 35 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:08
Austin Hubbard 0 15 of 42 35% 18 of 52 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vinc Pichel 71 of 160 44% 28 of 108 16 of 23 27 of 29 59 of 145 10 of 12 2 of 3
Austin Hubbard 56 of 152 36% 29 of 110 17 of 31 10 of 11 51 of 145 4 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vinc Pichel 21 of 55 38% 4 of 34 5 of 8 12 of 13 20 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 22 of 58 37% 9 of 38 8 of 15 5 of 5 22 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vinc Pichel 27 of 63 42% 11 of 44 8 of 10 8 of 9 24 of 59 3 of 4 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 19 of 52 36% 10 of 36 5 of 11 4 of 5 16 of 49 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Vinc Pichel 23 of 42 54% 13 of 30 3 of 5 7 of 7 15 of 32 6 of 7 2 of 3
Austin Hubbard 15 of 42 35% 10 of 36 4 of 5 1 of 1 13 of 38 1 of 3 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Vinc Pichel

Big Brady picks Vinc Pichel, citing his grappling advantage. He notes Pichel averages 3.83 takedowns per 15 minutes with 60% accuracy, and believes he will win the grappling exchanges. He is concerned about Pichel's age (38) but thinks his gas tank is fine. He predicts a decision win.

"i'm going to take vince michelle to win i think he's going to win the grappling exchanges"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vinc Pichel

Cody picks Pichel, having already bet him. He highlights Pichel's cardio, top control, and BJJ black belt, and notes Hubbard's tendency to fade in later rounds. He believes Pichel's wrestling and pressure will be key, and mentions the value on Pichel by submission at 20-1.

Pichel by submission 20-1 (DraftKings); also +575 at another book
"i've already made a bet on it... i think we see a lot of cage control for vince i think we see a lot of you know pushing forward hopefully the takedowns are there"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vinc Pichel

Pichel is a grappler who should have success taking Hubbard down, especially by catching Hubbard's kicks. Hubbard has only fought grapplers recently and has struggled. Pichel's age (38) is a concern but he has low fight mileage. I'm picking Pichel by decision, but the moneyline at even odds is fine.

Pichel by decision (+140)
"i do like vince michelle on the spot don't look too hard at that 38 year old uh spot that he's at right now fight mouse is not that high"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vinc Pichel

Paul picks Pichel, citing his strong top game and ability to grind out wins. He notes Pichel's slow starts but finishing strong, and Hubbard's susceptibility to takedowns. He mentions Pichel's training at Factory X and believes his cardio will hold up.

Pichel by submission 20-1 is egregious, worth a sprinkle
"i'm gonna have faith in my boy he hasn't done you wrong so far and i do think he's live in the spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard as an underdog. He cites Hubbard's takedown defense and volume striking as keys. He notes Pichel is 38 and coming off a year layoff, while Hubbard is younger and has shown improvement. He expects Hubbard to win the later rounds via decision, possibly 29-28.

"i'm gonna go with austin hubbard over vince pacquiao in all honesty"
WIN vs Jim Miller
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vinc Pichel 0 14 of 39 35% 26 of 57 2 of 2 100% 2 1 5:10
Jim Miller 0 41 of 78 52% 84 of 124 3 of 5 60% 0 0 6:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vinc Pichel 0 11 of 29 37% 11 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:16
Jim Miller 0 12 of 24 50% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Vinc Pichel 0 2 of 4 50% 8 of 10 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
Jim Miller 0 12 of 23 52% 39 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:29
3 Vinc Pichel 0 1 of 6 16% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:47
Jim Miller 0 17 of 31 54% 26 of 42 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vinc Pichel 14 of 39 35% 6 of 30 5 of 6 3 of 3 7 of 27 4 of 6 3 of 6
Jim Miller 41 of 78 52% 27 of 64 11 of 11 3 of 3 15 of 35 9 of 11 17 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vinc Pichel 11 of 29 37% 4 of 21 4 of 5 3 of 3 7 of 24 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jim Miller 12 of 24 50% 5 of 17 4 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Vinc Pichel 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jim Miller 12 of 23 52% 11 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 20
3 Vinc Pichel 1 of 6 16% 0 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 3
Jim Miller 17 of 31 54% 11 of 25 6 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 11 7 of 8 7 of 12
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Vinc Pichel

Round 1
Competing atop the preliminary card is the most active fighter in UFC history in Miller (32-14, 1 NC; 21-13, 1 NC UFC) against “From Hell” Pichel (12-2, 5-2 UFC) in the lightweight division. Pichel made his UFC debut in 2012 and this will be his eighth fight with the promotion, while Miller will have competed 23 times in that same span when the night ends. Referee Herb Dean will keep a watchful eye on this preliminary headliner, and there is a touch of gloves before these two get down to it. The two try to find their way in, and Pichel lands first with a left hand. Miller charges back at him and catches him with a left, and nearly clips him with a knee up the middle. Pichel fires back, and lands a body kick. Miller again races towards him with a string of punches, and he ends a combination with a hard leg kick. A sharp uppercut stings Pichel, and Miller tosses a low kick that grazes the cup and halts the action briefly. Miller takes a shot to the cup as well but he fights through it as they swing for the bleachers. Miller walks him down and clinches up, landing a knee to the torso before trying to trip Pichel’s legs out. Miller commits to a single but Pichel keeps them upright, so Miller drills him in the breadbasket with a knee. Miller hacks at him with elbows and pair of knees until Pichel breaks free. Miller flips up a head kick and Pichel blocks it without countering. Miller walks him down with another head kick and a low kick, and Pichel’s hands are by his waist possibly to stop a takedown. The hand position does not help him stuff the takedown that soon follows, and Miller instantly takes Pichel’s back to get his hooks in. “From Hell” tries with all his might to lean to the fence to try to stave off the submission, and he nearly spins out but almost falls into submission danger. Pichel turns about so Miller switches to a guillotine choke, which he uses to take top position as Pichel holds on tight. Miller rolls and traps the calf of his opponent for a calf slicer, but time expires before he can secure a tap.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
They touch gloves at the start of the round, and Pichel rushes in with a head kick but Miller eats it like a sandwich and hits a takedown with relative ease. Miller works him from the top while Pichel scoots back to the fence, and Miller takes the moment to get to half guard and stand up to land some strikes. Pichel kicks off and just misses an upkick, and springs back up to mash Miller against the cage. Pichel changes levels to get Miller down, and his neck is quickly in danger for a guillotine choke. “From Hell” calmly pulls his neck free, and he keeps Miller pressed to the wall while Miller throws his legs up for some submission. Pichel wrests his arms free from what looks like a double armbar, and he steps over into half guard while Miller keeps attacking. Pichel steps over and Miller latches on to a heel hook, and Pichel turns out and nails Miller with a pair of heavy elbows to step into half guard again. Pichel sets up an arm-triangle choke and swipes at Miller’s forehead with a few elbows as he grinds him out. Pichel postures up and lands a punch, but Miller ties him up again. Pichel stays heavy and keeps Miller trapped on his back, landing sporadic punches and racking up control time. Pichel gets off a few more punches as the horn sounds to wrap up the second frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pichel

Round 3
The two lightweights greet with one final glove touch, and Pichel rings home a right hand and a body kick before setting up a takedown. Miller tries to defend against it, but he falls to his back as Pichel fishes for a kimura. Miller yanks his arm free, but in the process, Pichel advances to side control and drops down a few elbows as Miller attempts to roll for a leg lock. Pichel steps out of it and circles around to take Miller’s back, landing a few punches and securing his hooks. Miller twists and turns as Pichel hunts for a rear-naked choke, and “A-10” powers his way up and around to go after a guillotine choke while Pichel is on his knees. A wild scramble puts Pichel on his back as Miller starts to put a few punches together. Pichel walks up the cage wall to his knee, and Miller frees a trapped leg to take Pichel’s back and drags him down. Pichel rolls along with Miller in that instance to buck Miller off, and Pichel now has Miller’s back. The exciting grappling continues as they both keep scrambling and get back to their feet. Miller presses him to the fence as he looks for a single, allowing Pichel to knee him in the chin. Another knee from Pichel backs Miller out of the clinch, and Pichel walks forward to land some punches before changing levels for a single leg takedown. Miller stuffs it and gets kneed several times. When they separate, Pichel boots him in the head, and Miller shakes off the cobwebs, pulls guard and cinches up a guillotine choke. It is incredibly tight, and Pichel is in a bad way, but he grits it out and pulls his neck out of the rough position. Pichel lands a few hard shots on top to bloody up his opponent, and the final horn concludes this exciting lightweight scrap.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pichel (29-28 Pichel)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pichel (29-28 Pichel)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pichel (29-28 Pichel)

The Official Result
Vinc Pichel def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady expects Jim Miller to get the fight to the ground and submit Pichel in the first round. He notes Pichel's poor takedown defense and thinks Miller is dangerous early. He sees value on Miller as an underdog.

first round submission, underdog pick
"give me jim miller first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Daniel Levi leans toward Jim Miller. He thinks Miller is the better fighter and can win a decision if he doesn't empty his gas tank in the first round. He notes that Pichel is a point fighter who doesn't push a high pace, which may not gas Miller out. However, he acknowledges Pichel's toughness and that Miller historically loses when fights go past the first round.

Miller by decision; Pichel's pace may not be enough to fatigue Miller
"i'm actually leaning towards jim miller here i think he's the better fighter"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 13, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Miller has the jiu-jitsu advantage and can catch Pichel from the bottom or hurt him on the feet. Pichel has ring rust and Miller is active. The fight likely ends inside the distance, with Miller by submission or Pichel by TKO. Miller's submission threat is real, and he has power in his hands. Confidence is low, but Miller gets the nod.

Under 2.5 rounds (+110); Miller wins by first-round submission
"I'm going to take Miller... I think he hits and hurts Vince Pichel and then eventually pulls off a rear naked choke or some sort of arm triangle."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller by submission in the first round, citing Miller's recent activity and veteran experience. He believes Pichel fights infrequently and may not be fully committed, while Miller is in shape and has a submission win over a common opponent.

submission in the first round
"jim miller wins the fight by submission in the first round"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. dos Santos · Jun 29, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vinc Pichel 0 31 of 87 35% 34 of 90 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:34
Roosevelt Roberts 0 60 of 101 59% 81 of 122 3 of 6 50% 1 1 5:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vinc Pichel 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
Roosevelt Roberts 0 18 of 29 62% 22 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
2 Vinc Pichel 0 10 of 30 33% 13 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:02
Roosevelt Roberts 0 21 of 37 56% 29 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:35
3 Vinc Pichel 0 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Roosevelt Roberts 0 21 of 35 60% 30 of 44 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vinc Pichel 31 of 87 35% 22 of 75 6 of 8 3 of 4 26 of 80 5 of 6 0 of 1
Roosevelt Roberts 60 of 101 59% 29 of 55 16 of 26 15 of 20 26 of 62 14 of 16 20 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vinc Pichel 17 of 43 39% 10 of 35 4 of 4 3 of 4 13 of 38 4 of 5 0 of 0
Roosevelt Roberts 18 of 29 62% 3 of 10 7 of 10 8 of 9 9 of 20 9 of 9 0 of 0
2 Vinc Pichel 10 of 30 33% 8 of 27 2 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roosevelt Roberts 21 of 37 56% 8 of 18 7 of 10 6 of 9 12 of 23 3 of 5 6 of 9
3 Vinc Pichel 4 of 14 28% 4 of 13 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 1
Roosevelt Roberts 21 of 35 60% 18 of 27 2 of 6 1 of 2 5 of 19 2 of 2 14 of 14
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 4:06 · UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · Jun 01, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregor Gillespie 0 13 of 26 50% 30 of 48 7 of 9 77% 2 0 7:51
Vinc Pichel 0 7 of 22 31% 35 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregor Gillespie 0 8 of 17 47% 20 of 34 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:06
Vinc Pichel 0 3 of 12 25% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Gregor Gillespie 0 5 of 9 55% 10 of 14 3 of 4 75% 1 0 3:45
Vinc Pichel 0 4 of 10 40% 23 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregor Gillespie 13 of 26 50% 11 of 24 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 13 2 of 5 6 of 8
Vinc Pichel 7 of 22 31% 6 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregor Gillespie 8 of 17 47% 7 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 2 of 5 2 of 3
Vinc Pichel 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Gregor Gillespie 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5
Vinc Pichel 4 of 10 40% 3 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0
WIN vs Joaquim Silva
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Jacaré vs. Brunson 2 · Jan 27, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vinc Pichel 0 60 of 186 32% 62 of 188 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:48
Joaquim Silva 0 45 of 100 45% 54 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vinc Pichel 0 13 of 38 34% 14 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Joaquim Silva 0 6 of 16 37% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vinc Pichel 0 19 of 48 39% 19 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Joaquim Silva 0 11 of 30 36% 12 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Vinc Pichel 0 28 of 100 28% 29 of 101 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:15
Joaquim Silva 0 28 of 54 51% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vinc Pichel 60 of 186 32% 24 of 135 15 of 21 21 of 30 50 of 174 10 of 12 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 45 of 100 45% 30 of 79 10 of 15 5 of 6 44 of 97 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vinc Pichel 13 of 38 34% 3 of 25 3 of 3 7 of 10 10 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 6 of 16 37% 3 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vinc Pichel 19 of 48 39% 9 of 30 3 of 8 7 of 10 17 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 11 of 30 36% 7 of 23 1 of 3 3 of 4 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vinc Pichel 28 of 100 28% 12 of 80 9 of 10 7 of 10 23 of 94 5 of 6 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 28 of 54 51% 20 of 44 7 of 9 1 of 1 27 of 51 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jim Miller - Fight History
WIN vs Jared Gordon
Submission R1 3:29 · UFC 328 ·
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 9 of 17 52% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 9 of 17 52% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 9 of 17 52% 5 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 9 of 17 52% 5 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-325), Miller (+260)

Round 1
It’s Jim Miller (38-19, 1 NC; 27-18, 1 NC UFC) fight day, the first one of these this year. Coming up on 43 years of age, the New Jersey native still has a ways to go to reach 50 UFC bouts. He can get to 47 tonight once the cage doors close and referee Keith Peterson says go, when he battles Gordon (21-8, 1 NC; 9-7, 1 NC UFC). This lightweight clash kicks off with no nonsense and no fist bump either.
Miller stalks Gordon down slowly and cautiously, keeping his gloves up to defend a high kick. Miller leaps forward and catches Gordon with a shovel uppercut. Gordon has to take a quick count of his teeth and absorbs a knee from up close. Miller breaks off and takes a body kick. Miller throws a low kick that bangs into Gordon’s cup, and Gordon tries to take him down and abandons it to adjust his groin. Peterson calls time and gives Gordon as much time as he needs to recover. After 80 seconds, Gordon is good to go, and Miller apologizes for the accidental foul. Gordon strikes first with a high kick that harmlessly bangs into the guard, and Miller crowds him behind a pair of hooks. Miller kicks the side again and is driven back with a right hand.
Gordon jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and he catches a Miller body kick to shoot for a takedown.
This reckless shot is just traveling down the road to perdition for Gordon, as Miller snatches up a guillotine choke and cinches both legs around the waist, gripping the submission with everything he has. Miller rolls Gordon to the side, squeezing with his self-describes "old man strength." Miller arches his back and has Gordon dead to rights. Gordon surrenders so he does not go out on his shield, and the victorious Miller leaps atop the cage to let loose a roar of victory.
In less than four minutes, the OG Miller has notched his 28th victory in the Octagon, extending his own record. He has now finished 20 opponents as a UFC fighter, one shy of organizational leader Charles Oliveira. In victory, Miller gives it up to his son for beating cancer, declaring that anything he does in combat pales in comparison to what his offspring went through.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Jared Gordon R1 3:29 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon, stating his hands are better and his takedown defense should be good enough. He dismisses Gordon's last loss due to being hit by a car. He notes Gordon is a touch younger and faster. However, he thinks the 3-to-1 odds are crazy and will not bet on it. He acknowledges Jim Miller's home advantage and toughness.

Angelo says he is not spending on the 3-to-1 odds.
"I'm gonna pick Jared Gordon here because I do think his hands are better and I think the takedown defense should be good enough to defend some of these Jim Miller takedowns. But 3 to 1 money is crazy. I'm …"
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon but is not fully confident. He notes that Jim Miller is tough and experienced, and that the age difference might only be half a second faster. He thinks the fight is competitive and that Jim Miller plus 3.5 is not the worst bet. He mentions that Jim Miller has been finished in all his losses in New Jersey.

over round line lean
"I am picking Jared Gordon here. But the idea that Jim Miller can't hang on the feet seems something that you can dismiss."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, assuming he wasn't hit by a car before this fight. He notes Gordon fights at a high level and should be the minute winner everywhere. Brady expects Gordon to win by decision, though he acknowledges Jim Miller has power and a guillotine. He is rooting for Miller but thinks Gordon gets it done on the scorecards.

"I'm going to take Jared Gordon to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon, citing his youth and well-rounded skills. He thinks Gordon's striking and grappling are a step ahead of Miller, who is older and less active. Cody expects Gordon to win by decision.

"I'm picking Jared Gordon. Despite the fact that I want Jim Miller to win."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Connor also picks Gordon, focusing on directionality: Gordon has a clear process of pressuring and putting out volume, while Miller never has. Connor notes that Miller has no ability to be the one pressuring and will just accept the fight Gordon wants. He adds that Gordon is a little too fast and put together with his hands for Miller to take him out of his game.

Miller opened at +210, now +250; Gordon opened at -250, now -300.
"I think I will because he is going to understand how to kind of tell the story of the fight to dictate in a way that Jim Miller never has been able to."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Daniel picks Gordon, predicting a 29-28 decision where Miller wins the first round but Gordon edges out the last two with top control. He respects Miller's legacy but sees Gordon's youth and grappling as decisive.

"I'm also going Gordon. I'm gonna go 2928 decision. I think Miller wins the first round. Gordon kind of edges out the last two with top control."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Jared Gordon

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 3. Gordon is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (5.64 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to the 41-year-old Miller. Miller's takedown defense (48%) is a liability, and Gordon has solid takedown defense (60%) to keep the fight standing. Gordon's recent KO win over Thiago Moises shows his power, while Miller has been knocked out multiple times. Gordon's pace and pressure should overwhelm Miller, leading to a late stoppage or clear decision.

Gordon by KO/TKO +400
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Jacob picks Jared Gordon but is not betting on him out of respect for Jim Miller, who has been dealing with his son's cancer. He thinks Gordon should win but sees weird paths to victory for Miller. He might play Jim Miller in some capacity on Saturday.

"I got to pick Jared Gordon as a pick because I mean he should just be the better fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The host picks Gordon, citing his pressure, pace, and power striking. He believes Gordon's grappling is good enough to keep Miller from grinding, and that Gordon's durability and cardio will allow him to dictate the fight. He expects a decision win, though he notes Miller's hometown crowd and power could pose a threat.

"I like Gordon here. I think he wins by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Paul picks Gordon, citing his technical striking and Miller's decline. He notes Miller's age and distractions, and thinks Gordon is simply better everywhere. Paul expects Gordon to win.

"Jared Gordon is just a kind of like one step advance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon but calls him a 'risky pick'. He notes Gordon's inconsistency but believes Jim Miller has lost his pop and recent performances have declined. He thinks Gordon should figure out the 55-year-old Miller and get a finish, though he initially says decision then corrects to finish.

by finish
"I'm going to go with Jared Gordon winning this one by decision. Um, by finish. Sorry."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Zane picks Gordon, citing his improved boxing and ability to dictate the fight with pressure and volume. He notes that Jim Miller lacks a clear process and is not a strategic thinker, while Gordon has a clear game plan. However, Zane acknowledges Miller's power and finishing ability, making Gordon vulnerable despite being the favorite.

Miller opened at +210, now +250; Gordon opened at -250, now -300. Should probably be closer than that.
"I am going to take Jared Gordon."
LOSS vs Chase Hooper
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 13 of 35 37% 22 of 45 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:39
Chase Hooper 0 21 of 44 47% 59 of 94 8 of 14 57% 1 0 10:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 10 of 16 62% 14 of 21 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:39
Chase Hooper 0 10 of 21 47% 24 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:57
2 Jim Miller 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Hooper 0 5 of 11 45% 10 of 19 5 of 8 62% 0 0 4:04
3 Jim Miller 0 2 of 7 28% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Hooper 0 6 of 12 50% 25 of 34 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 13 of 35 37% 11 of 30 1 of 2 1 of 3 7 of 28 1 of 2 5 of 5
Chase Hooper 21 of 44 47% 13 of 34 7 of 9 1 of 1 18 of 41 1 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 10 of 16 62% 10 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 5 of 5
Chase Hooper 10 of 21 47% 4 of 13 5 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 1 of 12 8% 0 of 9 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Jim Miller 2 of 7 28% 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chase Hooper vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hooper (-800), Miller (+550)

Round 1
While it is understandable, it is still unfortunate that announcer Bruce Buffer declined to shout out Miller’s (38-18, 1 NC; 27-17, 1 NC UFC) preferred nickname that was certainly not “A-10.” We get what we get, so “Expletive Deleted” will have to hold serve for now. The grizzled veteran, one whose name is all over the leaderboards including the most fights (soon to be 46) and the most victories (27 for now), will throw down with a man 16 years his junior. In a contest of old man strength vs. youthful exuberance, Hooper (15-3-1, 7-3 UFC) will represent the latter and will close as an astronomical betting favorite north of -800. Things like 41 and -800 are just numbers to Miller, who will meet Hooper in the center of the cage while referee Kerry Hatley watches on. They do not touch gloves. When Miller plods forward, Hooper backs away and uses his kicks to keep his preferred distance. Hooper suddenly attacks with a swarm of punches, and Miller sits in the pocket and fires back at him. Hooper gets the better of an exchange, and he slides back and clips Miller with a solid right hand. Miller is unfazed and cracks his foe with a left hook, and Hooper punches and shoots low for a single. Miller drops to a knee to defend it, and he wraps up a guillotine choke that forces Hooper to stand. Hooper drops to the floor to roll out of it, and Miller lowers himself down and blasts the youngster in the face with a standing-to-ground left hand. Hooper hunts for a triangle choke, and Miller punches his way out of it and reassumes top position in the guard. “A-10” stacks Hooper up to prevent Hooper from going after anything, and Miller latches on with a guillotine and jumps guard to secure it. Hooper calmly works his neck out of harm’s way, and he finds himself in top. Miller turns over and gives up his back, and Hooper is quick to start hunting for a standing rear-naked choke. Miller leans against the cage to take some of the weight off, and he tries to scrape “The Dream” off of him using the chain links. Hooper has the body triangle wrapped around the waist to remain on Miller’s back, and he hacks at Miller with an elbow. Hooper attempts a neck crank, and Miller bucks and twists to get Hooper off of his back. Hooper hits his back and instantly attacks an armbar, and Miller punches his way out of that and a subsequent triangle setup. Miller nails his man with a big left hand, and he pushes out of a quick triangle that materializes out of nowhere. Miller stands up, and Hooper follows him and pushes out a front kick. One more front kick from Hooper results in him getting caught with an overhand right, and the horn sounds to end the dramatic round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper

Round 2
Miller starts out the round ready to get in the pocket and exchange, and he scores a solid left hand to back Hooper off. When Hooper presses him, Miller tags him with another left. The youngster chains a front kick into a spinning back fist, and Miller defends against them and allows Hooper to take him down so he can grip hold of a two-on-one wrist lock. Hooper elbows him in the side while Miller clings to the limb, using it to work back to his feet. Hooper takes his back standing and wrenches him to the ground, where he flirts with a rear-naked choke to further control his foe. Miller works his way back to his feet and leans himself on the wire, and Hooper softens him up and is pulled off of Miller’s back, but he sells out for a takedown and lands in side control. After Hooper gets off some strikes, Miller fights to his feet, and he considers a guillotine when Hooper pursues a mat return. Miller lets it go and stands up, and Hooper kicks off the fencing and tosses Miller to his back. Hooper controls Miller from the side and then back, and the two scramble and roll to find themselves in an awkward situation. Hoop looks to lace Miller’s legs and spread them apart for a banana split, and he tugs on Miller’s foot to further hold on tight. Miller survives this and makes it to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper

Round 3
Hooper wants to take the fight down to begin the final round, with Miller wearing it after 10 minutes of combat. The control of Hooper starts to take over, as he latches on the elder statesman’s back and wrangles him to the floor. Hooper again pursues a leglock from a strange angle, and Miller’s knee is trapped in a precarious predicament. They remain stuck in a 50-50 of sorts, with a possible twister or other unorthodox submission coming together. Miller on his back, has his legs caught between Hooper’s, and his torso is about to turn the wrong direction until Hooper decides to abandon it and take top position. Hooper clings to the top position like Saran wrap, nullifying Miller and causing the audience to start booing. Hooper resides in half guard, smothering and hanging tight until posturing up with a few elbows to the side. Hooper sits up with seconds to go, and the fight that started with a roar ends with a whimper.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (29-28 Hooper)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (30-27 Hooper)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (30-27 Hooper)

The Official Result
Chase Hooper def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Jim Miller, citing his well-rounded game and lack of fear of grapplers. He believes Miller's experience and ability to find one good shot will be key, and that Hooper's messy striking will leave him vulnerable. Connor notes that Miller has knocked out bad strikers before and that Hooper's game may fall apart if his early submission attempts fail.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm gonna take the OG in a matchup like this."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Chase Hooper

Daniel Levi notes that Chase Hooper handled a legend, securing eight takedowns and doing what he was supposed to do. He suggests moving Hooper up and even proposes a fight against Michael Chandler. He respects Jim Miller as a legend but acknowledges the loss.

"Chase Hooper went out there, handled a legend, you know, eight takedowns. Uh he didn't he didn't get to sub him, but you know, he went out there, did what he was supposed to do."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chase Hooper

Zane picks Chase Hooper, believing his scrambling and kinetic grappling will overwhelm the 41-year-old Jim Miller. He thinks Hooper's youth and submission hunting will lead to a finish, possibly early. Zane acknowledges Miller's power and experience but feels Hooper's style is too dynamic for Miller to keep up with.

Hooper opened at -674, now -832; Miller opened at +415, now +556. Zane calls the odds 'extreme' and says they should not be that wide.
"I think I'm going to pick Chase Hooper. ... Hooper's like a young Joe Lozon away."
WIN vs Damon Jackson
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:44 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damon Jackson vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-170), Miller (+142)

Round 1
Two vets on the wrong end of 35 will be matched against one another as the prelims carry on. Miller (37-18, 1 NC; 26-17, 1 NC UFC) will be seeking to improve on his UFC-leading win tally, while Jackson (23-7-1, 1 NC; 6-5-1, 1 NC UFC) has regressed to the mean and is a loss away from a .500 record after two stints in the promotion. For as long as it lasts, this one should be a good one, and referee Keith Peterson is on top of the lightweight action as well as the nonsense. There is no glove touch that comes from the elder statesmen, as they want to go after it immediately. Jackson attacks first, connecting with a few power punches to introduce himself. Miller fires back with an overhand right, takes a right to the body and comes back with another clubbing punch. The two clash legs at the same time when kicking, and Miller dings Jackson with an uppercut when defending a single-leg takedown. Jackson pushes Miller to the wire, and chants for “Miller” drown out all other noise in the building. This energizes “A-10,” who breaks out of the clinch and stuffs another takedown to boot. Jackson punches his way into an exchange, and Miller cuts him when firing back. Miller further opens the cut on the eyebrow with a step-in elbow, and he swings a big right hand that is ducked and countered. Jackson tosses out a front kick, and Miller throws back with fire. Another front kick from Jackson gets in, and Miller pressures forward and whips a low kick that lands with a whump. Miller sits down with a left hand that makes both men take a step back, and he is prepared to defend against what comes next. Jackson dives after him, with an ill-advised naked takedown that is stopped in its tracks by a Miller guillotine choke.
Miller jumps guard to complete the submission, and as soon as Jackson hits the mat, he realizes the choke is so deep and so tight that he almost abandons ship immediately. Miller keeps squeezing for all his might, and Jackson decides against going out on his shield and surrenders.
It is the first time that Jackson has ever tapped in his long career, with his previous submission defeat of the technical variety that put him out. The ageless wonder does it again, submitting a man with incredible jiu-jitsu without taking much damage. The crowd goes wild, as the UFC’s all-time winningest fighters adds one more to the total. Miller tells commentator Joe Rogan that there is still tread left on the tires, and says he plans on making it to fight 50 in the UFC. On the other side of the equation—as there is the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat in almost every fight—Jackson removes his gloves and leaves them in the center of the Octagon, not wishing to speak to the crowd to give Miller his time to shine. Shine he did.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Damon Jackson R1 2:44 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson, citing Jackson's striking improvements and wrestling. He believes Jackson will hang in striking, get takedowns, and control on top without being in danger. He notes Jim Miller's age and that his black belt is outdated. He placed a half-unit bet on Jackson at -150.

Angelo bet half a unit on Damon Jackson at -150.
"I threw a half a unit on Damon Jackson at minus5"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady picks Jim Miller by knockout, citing Miller's power and durability versus Jackson's chinny nature. He notes that Jackson gets hurt in every fight and looks like a wounded deer on the feet, while Miller still has power that lasts. He also mentions the return to old gloves, which he believes favors knockouts. He predicts a second-round knockout, though he acknowledges Jackson's path via takedowns.

"I'll take Jim Miller to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody picks Damon Jackson, citing Miller's age (41) and recent decline. He notes Miller's only path is an early finish, while Jackson has better durability and cardio. Cody expects Jackson to win a competitive decision, possibly by outworking Miller in the later rounds.

"I'm actually gonna take Damon Jackson for this one"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller but with hesitation, noting that Jackson's game is 'chancey' and that Miller can still obliterate lower-level opponents. He points out that Jackson's wins are always scrappy and that Miller is a more reliable fighter. However, he acknowledges that Miller's stamina and directional issues could be exploited.

"I do not... I don't know. Damon jackson's game is it's just much more chancey than miller's. Yes. It's always been a thing like, you know, Jackson wins all the time. And so it's easy to we but i've talked …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland picks Damon Jackson via decision, expecting Miller to win the first round but fade. He notes Miller's history of fading after round one and Jackson's ability to grind out wins. He acknowledges Miller's early threat but believes Jackson can survive and take over in later rounds. He mentions Miller's recent loss to Bobby Green as evidence of his decline.

decision
"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson via decision here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Vreeland picks Miller as his dog, liking the plus money. He notes Miller is a durable veteran and that Jackson has lost three in a row. Vreeland expects Miller to win by decision, as Jackson is tough to finish.

Jim Miller wins by decision (+400)
"Jim Miller I like... better number too slightly plus 145"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions Vreeland's pick but does not state his own opinion.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Damon Jackson

The host gives Miller a slight striking advantage but believes the fight will be dictated in the grappling realm, where Jackson should utilize his size and strength more effectively to get controlling positions and grind out a decision win.

"I'd give Miller the slight advantage in the Striking I do think it will be dictated in the grappling real and that's where Jackson should be able to utilize this SI and strength a little bit more effectively getting those …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Damon Jackson, noting Miller is on his last legs and Jackson has good enough grappling to avoid being submitted. He expects Jackson to win a decision, possibly by outworking Miller. Paul is not betting the fight but leans Jackson.

"I won't be fading Jim Miller but I will be picking his opponent Damon Jackson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson, expecting him to grapple and grind out a decision. He believes Jackson will take Miller down and hold him there, wearing him out. He notes Jackson's size and grappling ability, and doubts Miller can finish early.

decision win
"Damon Jackson's GNA half guard Camp Jim Miller it's going to happen... I can so see him getting taken down and held down by Damon Jackson"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Zane picks Miller despite acknowledging his age and stamina issues. He notes that Miller is still dangerous on the feet and harder to hurt than Jackson, who is hittable and structurally unsound. Zane thinks Miller's power and durability give him an edge, but he is hesitant because Miller tends to fade late and can be out-wrestled.

Odds: Miller opened -145, now +154; Jackson opened +114, now -174. Zane says 'you don't want damon jackson any wider than that over anyone'.
"I'm kind of tempted to pick jim miller here. It is his home division. I think he might feel kind of stronger than damon jackson's uh issues, too."
LOSS vs King Green
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 30–25, 29–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 1 186 of 319 58% 187 of 320 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Jim Miller 0 57 of 144 39% 58 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 43 of 83 51% 43 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 King Green 0 61 of 115 53% 61 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 King Green 1 82 of 121 67% 83 of 122 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Jim Miller 0 20 of 45 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 186 of 319 58% 136 of 245 40 of 56 10 of 18 167 of 295 7 of 8 12 of 16
Jim Miller 57 of 144 39% 29 of 103 10 of 18 18 of 23 55 of 141 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 43 of 83 51% 26 of 57 12 of 19 5 of 7 43 of 82 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 17 of 46 36% 9 of 35 2 of 4 6 of 7 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 King Green 61 of 115 53% 45 of 88 13 of 19 3 of 8 60 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 20 of 53 37% 9 of 37 3 of 6 8 of 10 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 King Green 82 of 121 67% 65 of 100 15 of 18 2 of 3 64 of 99 6 of 6 12 of 16
Jim Miller 20 of 45 44% 11 of 31 5 of 8 4 of 6 18 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo leans Bobby Green based on skill set, noting Green's better striking and takedown defense. However, he is not confident due to Green's recent knockout losses and Miller's resurgence. He calls the -200 odds absurd and advises staying away from betting.

Odds comment: -200 is absurd for this fight
"I am going to lean Bobby green very very slightly minus 200 is absolutely absurd for this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Bobby Green, citing his superior footwork, volume, and jab. He notes that Jim Miller is slower and more flat-footed now, and no longer relies on wrestling. Green's takedown defense is solid, and Miller is unlikely to wrestle. Cody thinks the fight will resemble a sparring match where Green picks Miller apart with the jab. He warns that Miller is a fan favorite and the crowd could influence judges, but on paper, Green's style defeats Miller. Cody expects a decision win for Green.

"On paper Bobby green has a style to defeat him so the pick is Green."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Connor picks Green, arguing that Miller's game is not suited to track down a mobile striker like Green. He notes that Miller is best when he can plant his feet in the middle distance, but Green will keep moving and counter. Connor believes Green's ability to fire back with better offense will be the difference, though Miller's kicks could be troublesome.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I got to take green to just be able to have a competitive interesting fight, maybe eat a couple of shots that he lunges in and Miller is sitting and waiting on a counter."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Daniel Vreeland picks Bobby Green, citing his speed, volume, and higher level of competition. He believes Green's striking and cardio will outpace Miller, despite concerns about Green's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes Miller's momentum but trusts Green's technical edge.

"I'm gonna pick Bobby Green to get it done"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He calls it a feel-good fight and is excited because Jim Miller is fighting on UFC 100, 200, and 300. He says Bobby Green always brings hype and entertainment. No prediction is given.

"Jim Miller versus Bobby Green that's just a feel-good fight Jim Miller for UFC 100 UFC 200 and UFC 300 well is going to fight UFC 300 so I'm excited for that fight as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Green is the better technical striker and his defensive grappling is good enough to keep the fight upright. Miller might land some big shots early but Green will roll with them and put it on Miller in rounds two and three, winning on the scorecards.

decision
"I think for the most part green will roll with them well enough to take the brunt of it off and then really start to put it on Jim Miller through rounds two and three winning this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Paul agrees, noting that Green's footwork and jab should keep Miller at bay. He mentions that Green is coming off a bad knockout loss to Jalin Turner, but Miller doesn't have the power to replicate that. Paul thinks Miller's best chance is to land a right hand and get a takedown, but Green's takedown defense is good. He expects Green to win a decision, possibly a clear one.

"I like Bobby green too."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller to defeat Bobby Green by TKO in the second round. He predicts Miller will chop at Green's lead leg, find the chin after making Green hesitant, and notes Green's recent knockout loss to Jalin Turner may have affected him. He emphasizes Miller's momentum and ability to shoot takedowns.

"Jim Miller is going to destroy the lead leg of Bobby green he's going to hack it to Pieces."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green, believing his defensive awareness and skill will allow him to adjust as the fight goes on. He notes that Miller's meat-and-potatoes style is effective early but predictable, and Green's footwork and counters will take over. Zane acknowledges that Green has looked shaky recently but trusts his technical edge over Miller's plodding pressure.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I am going to pick Bobby Green because I think Jim Miller is so meat and potato potatoes that he is going to have all the success he's ever going to have in the fight in like the first six …"
Submission (face crank) R3 3:25 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 80 of 140 57% 96 of 157 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:55
Gabriel Benítez 0 80 of 182 43% 84 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 32 of 64 50% 33 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Gabriel Benítez 0 32 of 77 41% 32 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Jim Miller 0 28 of 38 73% 42 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:52
Gabriel Benítez 0 22 of 48 45% 26 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jim Miller 0 20 of 38 52% 21 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:46
Gabriel Benítez 0 26 of 57 45% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 80 of 140 57% 50 of 108 10 of 12 20 of 20 67 of 125 5 of 7 8 of 8
Gabriel Benítez 80 of 182 43% 51 of 145 13 of 21 16 of 16 79 of 181 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 32 of 64 50% 17 of 47 5 of 7 10 of 10 30 of 60 2 of 4 0 of 0
Gabriel Benítez 32 of 77 41% 18 of 56 7 of 14 7 of 7 31 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 28 of 38 73% 19 of 29 4 of 4 5 of 5 18 of 28 3 of 3 7 of 7
Gabriel Benítez 22 of 48 45% 17 of 42 2 of 3 3 of 3 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jim Miller 20 of 38 52% 14 of 32 1 of 1 5 of 5 19 of 37 0 of 0 1 of 1
Gabriel Benítez 26 of 57 45% 16 of 47 4 of 4 6 of 6 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Miller (-120), Benitez (+100)

Round 1
It’s Miller (36-17, 1 NC; 25-16, 1 NC UFC) time. The storied veteran takes on Benitez (23-10, 7-6 UFC) and already has his next date on the calendar circled: April 13. Before then, he has to get past the fiery “Moggly,” who should not just serve as a heavy bag. The co-main event will be covered by referee Dan Miragliotta. The lightweights have all the respect in the world for one another, they touch ‘em up before engaging, and there’s a bad moon on the rise. Miller parries a jab and takes a one-two on the chin, and he walks Benitez down. Benitez tries to back him off with a front kick, and he scores a low kick. Miller gives him one back immediately, and he scores three punches up top and a left to the body. Miller scores a low kick, and he aims a right to the body. Miller walks his foe down and unloads with punches, and Benitez is marked up already and defends with a knee. They trade leg kicks, with Miller throwing harder. Miller chops down the lead leg of his opponent, and Benitez drives a one-two down the pipe. Benitez gets off another one-two, and Miller pushes a front kick out of the way to make Benitez slip. Benitez jumps back up, and he swings heavy punches including a left hand that marks up Miller’s right eye. They connect with right hands at the same time, and Miller blitzes forward to back Benitez off. Miller blasts the body with two loud knees, and Benitez escapes on the outside and gets back to striking range. Miller follows him and swings, and he gets clipped with a left hand. Benitez scores a low kick, Miller fires it back and walks through a jab. Miller plods ahead with punches and an inside leg kick, and he gets one off on the other side. Benitez sticks out a few jabs, and Miller crowds him but does not land flush in an exchange. Miller keeps coming forward, getting off a left hand and a knee up the middle. Benitez ties him up, and Miller aims a body shot before the two split up. Benitez goes to the body, and Miller goes up top. Benitez flicks out a few jabs and gets backed off with a hefty low kick, and he reaches Miller with a long left. Miller loads up on a high kick, and Benitez springs into action with several punches and a body kick. Benitez tags his foe with a left hand, and Miller blinks it out and keeps his guard up to defend another one-two that soars at him at high speed. Miller leaps ahead with a right hook, and he gets met on the way in with a left hand and a low kick. Benitez gets off several jabs and a left hook follows the fourth, and Miller is on him with his own combination to end the spirited round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
The lightweights touch ‘em up to get started, and fists meet faces shortly thereafter. Benitez wades through a few punches and then backs off, but Miller is right on him and nails him with two leg kicks. Benitez connects with a clean left hand to shake Miller up, and he eats a few punches as Miller is right on him. Miller blasts him with a left hand, lands another, drives up a knee and pounds Benitez with another short left. Miller slashes out an elbow, and Benitez is no worse for wear as he backs away. Miller keeps the high pace and whips down low kicks that have welted up the Mexican’s legs. Benitez looks to get his jab going frequently, and the low kicks from Miller make Benitez lift his leg up preemptively to block them. They land powerful punches, and Miller strides forward confidently to nail Benitez with an elbow. Miller changes things up and hits an easy takedown, and Benitez turns to one side in an effort to set up an armbar. Miller sees it coming and shuts it down, and he stacks Benitez up and works the body. Miller continues to strike, and Benitez moves his legs up to set up a high guard to for a potential submission setup. Miller breaks out of it by connecting with two nasty elbows, and Benitez rolls frantically to grab hold of Miller’s arm and lock down an armbar. Miller moves the proper way through it and gets out of danger, and he again holds himself on top of Benitez and hammers him with standing-to-ground punches. As Benitez turns after absorbing a particularly heavy blow, Miller takes his back and secures a body triangle. Benitez hand-fights to prevent any rear-naked choke, and Miller uses one left to break the wrist lock so that he can isolate Benitez’ neck. Benitez survives to the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 3
The fighters clap hands together as the last round opens, and they are just as willing to slug it out as ever. They stand in the center of the Octagon and trade leather briefly, and Miller targets the busted lead leg of his foe with a kick. Benitez stands firm and throws punches, and he comes up short with a high kick. Miller punches high and kicks low in response, as his corner cheers the kick as if he were in a muay thai contest. Miller sneaks two left hands around the guard, and Benitez is tough as nails but his nose starts leaking. Miller lands a heavy leg kick, and when Benitez backs him off with a few punches, Miller comes back firing with a kick he turns his hip towards. Benitez walks forward to throw hard, and Miller’s eyes begin to close from swelling. Benitez continues to pepper him with punches and kicks, and Miller staggers him with a straight right hand. Miller wades forward without a care in the world, and Benitez’s volume is starting to frustrate his opponent. Miller connects with another vicious low kick, and he shoots for a double that lands him in half guard easily. Benitez looks to scramble, and he gives his back up.
Miller gets the body lock he was looking for, and he immediately starts pursuing the choke. Benitez turns to his side, but Miller has him locked down and fishing for rear-naked choke grip. Miller cranks down with his forearm on Benitez’ jaw, and he does not even bother to slide it under the chin before he starts squeezing. Knowing that he has no way out, Benitez surrenders to the face crank, and Miller has done it.
He adds to his record with the most victories in UFC history, and hardcore fans around the world are elated at the grizzled veteran getting it done by stoppage once more. Pleasing the crowd and commentator Michael Bisping, Miller proudly declares that he has his sights set on UFC 300 in April, with three names in mind: Paul Felder, Matt Brown and Brock Lesnar.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Gabriel Benitez R3 3:25 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Angelo picks Jim Miller but with low confidence due to his age (40). He notes Miller's late-career power and toughness, but acknowledges Gabriel Benítez is a dangerous striker with power. He thinks Miller's wrestling and grit could get the win, but won't bet on a 40-year-old.

"Jim Miller is going to be the pick I do think he wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady likes Jim Miller's recent form, noting he's been active and knocking people out. He questions Benítez's durability and inactivity, as Benítez has been knocked out multiple times and hasn't fought in over a year. Brady predicts Miller will knock out Benítez in the first round, possibly via a club-and-sub.

first round knockout
"I'm going to say Jim Miller knocks this guy out in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Cody picks Benítez, citing his solid takedown defense from training with elite wrestlers, his volume striking, and leg kicks that can immobilize Miller. He notes Miller's lack of volume and takedown attempts in recent fights, and believes Benítez can sprawl and keep the fight standing to win by volume.

"I'll take Gabriel bonitz"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Daniel Vreeland leans with Gabriel Benítez, citing his youth and durability. He expects a competitive first round, but if it goes past that, Benítez's kicks and knees will wear down Jim Miller. Vreeland acknowledges Miller's finishing ability but thinks Benítez's chin issues are mitigated by the fact that only heavy hitters have knocked him out.

"I'm gonna lean with the younger Mowgli Bonitz here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript. He only covers fights from the card he mentions, and Jim Miller vs Gabriel Benítez is not mentioned.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Gabriel Benítez is a technical striker with a strong kicking game, especially to the body, and trains at AKA. He has a significant layoff but looked impressive in his last win over Charlie Ontiveros. Jim Miller is 40 years old and tends to fade in later rounds if he doesn't get an early finish. Benítez's technical striking advantage should allow him to outwork Miller from distance and potentially hurt him to the body. I expect Benítez to win by decision, but I'm cautious about the layoff and Miller's power. I'd wait for better odds on Benítez, ideally plus 140 or higher.

"I'm going to lean bonitz ever so slightly by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Paul leans towards Benítez as the number climbs, noting that Jim Miller's recent wins are against low-level competition and that Benítez has a speed advantage and kicks very hard. He mentions that if the line moves to +150, he would take a shot on Benítez, but he's not heavily invested.

over 1.5 rounds -140
"I'm going to ever so SL lean towards Gabriel Mowgli Benitez as this number climbs"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller, admitting bias but citing Miller's consistency and activity. He notes Gabriel Benítez has been inactive for nearly two years and lost to David Onama. He believes Miller still has fast-twitch muscle and finishing ability, predicting a TKO finish in the first round.

TKO in the first round
"I'm going to go with Jim Miller getting this one done by TKO finish in the first round"
WIN vs Jesse Butler
KO (punch) R1 0:23 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 1 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jesse Butler 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 1 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jesse Butler 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jesse Butler 1 of 7 14% 1 of 5 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jesse Butler 1 of 7 14% 1 of 5 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jesse Butler vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: N/A

Round 1
The widest gap in UFC experience will take place in this ultra-late notice lightweight fight. With the most fights (and wins) in company history, Miller (35-17, 1 NC; 24-16, 1 NC UFC) gladly accepted anyone they threw at him, after losing opponents Ludovit Klein and Jared Gordon. Taking the call this week, Butler (12-4, 0-0 UFC) will be making his UFC debut on the heels of five straight wins, including three in the growing Fury FC organization. In comparison, Miller had already competed 20 times in the UFC by the time Butler made his professional debut. This pairing that may not end in the hands of the judges will be officiated by referee Dan Miragliotta, and the fighters are glad to be competing and display this with a glove touch. Butler leads off with a left hand, and he loads up on a right hand and a body kick. Miller avoids all three, but he walks into a big pair of punches as the newcomer is ready for him. “A-10” flies into action with a right hand and a left, and the second stings his foe.
Miller corks back a bomb of a left hand and detonates it on the chin of the debutant, and Butler collapses like a bird that’s just had its wings clipped. Just to punctuate his performance, Miller clobbers the unconscious fighter with a devastating uppercut before Miragliotta can get between them.
Butler is all the way out, and takes some time to regain his senses from the vicious destruction. Miller declares in his post-fight interview that he has few things left he wants to accomplish in the sport, other than landing a kimura on an opponent, fighting at UFC 300 and facing someone he is “a fan” of in the cage. If Miller keeps fighting like that, it will be up to him when he wants to hang it up, as he very likely earned the fastest finish of his illustrious career while extending his record for the most wins in organizational history (25).

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Jesse Butler R1 0:23 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Angelo picks Gordon, noting he looked sharp against Bobby Green before the headbutt. He thinks Gordon's wrestling and volume striking will be too much for an aging Miller. He is concerned about Gordon being knocked out recently but believes Miller has slowed down. He is not betting this fight.

"I think Jared Gordon is is much better striker in this fight and uh I'm pretty confident in him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody picks Jared Gordon very reluctantly. He acknowledges Miller's power and submission threat early, but thinks Gordon will work him over slowly if it goes 15 minutes. Cody notes Gordon's wrestling and striking volume should be enough to outpoint Miller. He admits Miller could knock Gordon out, but he's sticking with Gordon as the right pick despite the risk.

"I'm looking to get the right pick and I think the right pick is Jared Gordon so very reluctantly again I I will stick with them"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller, hedging against Gordon's recent knockout loss. He admits that in a vacuum he would pick Gordon, but is too worried about Gordon's durability after being knocked out cold by Bobby Green a month ago. Connor notes that Miller still has sharp counter-punching and can finish anyone, and that Gordon's new patient style might play into Miller's hands.

Concern about Gordon's recent KO loss and short notice replacement.
"I'm going to take Jim Miller. I'm going to hedge against Gordon here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Daniel picks Jared Gordon, expecting him to outwork Jim Miller in the later rounds. He notes that Miller is a potent finisher early, but Gordon's volume and cardio should take over as the fight goes on. He acknowledges the recent KO loss for Gordon but doesn't put much stock in it, and sees a 29-28 decision either way.

"I'm on Gordon so we finally have our first opposite side"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Jacob picks Gordon, citing his performance against Bobby Green where he landed clean combinations. He thinks Gordon can point-fight and avoid Miller's power. Jacob notes Miller has power but is flat-footed and hittable. He is confident Gordon wins by outworking Miller.

"I believe Jared Gordon can kind of avoid those power shots like he did against Paddy kind of in out Point fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Gordon puts high volume and pressure, mixing striking, clinching, and grappling. Miller fades in later rounds and relies on early success. Gordon will tie him up, maintain pace, and win a decision. The five-week layoff from the no-contest is not a major concern.

"I like Gordon to just go out there and do work do what he did to Leonardo Santos in terms of just putting forward pressure on and just putting output and volume that Jim Miller may not be able to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Paul picks Jim Miller as the value side at +155. He notes Miller has one-punch power and a chin that could catch Gordon, who has been knocked out before. Paul mentions Gordon's recent no-contest due to a headbutt and his history of getting knocked out. He thinks Miller could finish early, but if it goes the distance, Gordon might outwork him. Paul is reluctant but sees value in the underdog.

Jim Miller by knockout prop
"I think plus 155 is the value side 100 what do you think so I'm going to agree with you I think it's the value side I think Jay Miller could absolutely win this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jesse Butler

The MMA Guru picks Jesse Butler (referred to as Jared Gordon, but the fight is Jim Miller vs Jesse Butler; likely a mistake in the transcript, but the pick is for Butler). He notes that Butler was looking good before being KO'd by Bobby Green (which was a headbutt). He believes Butler is simply a better fighter than Jim Miller, who he thinks has lost a step, as seen in his loss to Alexander Hernandez. He predicts Butler by decision, 30-27 or 29-28.

Butler by decision
"I'm going with Jared Gordon although Jared Gordon just got ko'd and it really does worry me... I do still think he's just a better fighter simply a better fighter than Jim Miller"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Zane picks Gordon in a vacuum, believing Gordon's improved boxing and pressure will be too much for the aging Miller. He notes that Miller's striking falls apart when he is forced to consistently go forward or backward, and Gordon's style can exploit that. However, Zane expresses concern about Gordon's recent knockout loss to Bobby Green just a month ago, which could affect his durability.

Concern about Gordon's recent KO loss (April 22nd) and short turnaround.
"I would pick him in a vacuum based on the styles and the age of Jim Miller."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 0 67 of 185 36% 68 of 186 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:40
Jim Miller 0 108 of 234 46% 111 of 238 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 24 of 70 34% 24 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 32 of 66 48% 32 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Hernandez 0 16 of 50 32% 17 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Jim Miller 0 34 of 74 45% 34 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Hernandez 0 27 of 65 41% 27 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:39
Jim Miller 0 42 of 94 44% 45 of 98 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 67 of 185 36% 32 of 137 16 of 25 19 of 23 64 of 182 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jim Miller 108 of 234 46% 62 of 169 39 of 50 7 of 15 98 of 223 3 of 3 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 24 of 70 34% 12 of 53 8 of 10 4 of 7 24 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jim Miller 32 of 66 48% 14 of 43 12 of 15 6 of 8 31 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 16 of 50 32% 9 of 39 3 of 7 4 of 4 16 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jim Miller 34 of 74 45% 21 of 55 12 of 16 1 of 3 34 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Hernandez 27 of 65 41% 11 of 45 5 of 8 11 of 12 24 of 62 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jim Miller 42 of 94 44% 27 of 71 15 of 19 0 of 4 33 of 84 2 of 2 7 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-230), Miller (+195)

Round 1
The main card kicks off with what should be an action-packed 155-pound tilt for as long as it lasts. On a hot streak with three finishes in a row, Miller (35-16, 1 NC; 24-15, 1 NC UFC) is determined to rattle off several more wins and potentially call it quits at UFC 300 next year. Standing in his way is late replacement Hernandez (13-6, 5-5 UFC), who returns to his weight class after an ill-fated trip to featherweight two months ago. Referee Herb Dean watches on as the two men decide not to touch gloves. Instead, Hernandez moves to the center of the cage and looses a head kick, and Miller takes it and fires back with a left hand down the pipe. Miller kicks the lead leg, counters a jab with a left hand and absorbs a calf kick coming back his way. Miller darts forward with a one-two, and Hernandez pushes off to slide a finger in Miller’s right eye. Miller does not acknowledge it, and Dean calls it for him and lets him recover anyway. Miller is good to go after about 15 seconds, and he reintroduces himself with a gnarly leg kick that makes Hernandez pick it up and lift it far back. Miller rushes forward with a few punches, and he rips a head kick that collides with the dome of his foe. Miller rings his bell a few more times with punches, and Hernandez separates and gathers his thoughts. The veteran keeps working on the lead leg, and Hernandez responds in kind. Hernandez catches Miller coming forward with one to the low calf, and Miller stumbles and blitzes with a four-punch salvo that drives Hernandez to the wall. Hernandez keeps his wits about him, circles away and pushes out a front kick that connects with the jaw. They fire off head kicks at the same time, and Miller knocks his foe back with a right hand. Hernandez gets off two punches before Miller can catch him, and he kicks Miller on the way back. A Hernandez jab leads to Miller racing forward with a one-two, and Hernandez slides out of harm’s way and plants the ball of his foot on the chest. Miller swings wildly with hooks, and Hernandez evades them all and continues feeding Miller a steady diet of kicks. Miller snaps the head back with a left hand, and he gives chase as Hernandez backpedals. Miller plods straight forward, throwing haymakers, while Hernandez strafes away. Miller swings a high kick that is barely blocked in time, and Hernandez works the lead leg in response. As Hernandez comes in throwing a punch, Miller attempts to kick the body, but it comes up short and clacks off the cup. Hernandez needs about 20 seconds to gather his wind, and they get back to exchanging. The round ends as Miller’s nose starts to bleed.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
The lightweights meet in the middle, and the first strike lands in the form of a Miller kick to the thigh. Hernandez backs off to crack Miller with a short left hook, and he scores a high kick that is barely blocked. Miller runs straight forward to attack, and Hernandez snipes him with a left hook again before stopping the takedown. Hernandez steps in with a knee to the body, and he jabs to the same spot and retreats. Miller gets stung with a right hand over the top, and Miller bounces off the fence and throws back with a vengeance. Miller takes a body kick and a right hand, and Hernandez is starting to bust Miller’s face up and cause some serious swelling. Miller scores a solid left hand but it is one-and-done before Hernandez can move away and counter. Hernandez ignores a low kick to split the guard with a straight right hand, and he rips a standing elbow right on the forehead. Miller goes up high with a kick, and it is easily blocked. Miller scores at the end of a two-punch salvo, but not before absorbing a kick to the ribs. Miller takes one on the chin and fires back, but Hernandez appears the faster fighter and the more elusive of the two. Hernandez splits the guard with a few strikes, beating Miller to the punch and slowing him down. “The Great Ape” blasts the midsection with a knee, and he jabs a few more times before having to block a head kick. Hernandez steps in to elbow and then knee Miller, and Miller can only take them without being able to land back with much. Miller stings his foe with a left hand, and he rushes after him with a few blows but is stunned from an elbow. Hernandez looks for elbows as he backs Miller up to the wall, and Miller wings a right hand that Hernandez practically ignores. Miller backs Hernandez up with a few more strikes, and he blocks a knee up the middle with kicks the liver. Hernandez digs a kick to the body and comfortably lands a jab as he backs off, and the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 3
Fists fly immediately to start off the last round, and Miller pushes the pace and knocks Hernandez back a few times. Hernandez strikes back, ripping opening a cut under Miller’s eye. Miller replies with a sweeping low kick, and he kicks the same spot when Hernandez recovers. Miller fights through a few jabs to charge with a barrage of punches, and he rocks Hernandez with a left hand over the top. Hernandez ties him up against the wall, and Miller knees the body and defends against a single-leg takedown. Hernandez goes low, and Miller grabs his neck with a guillotine choke. Hernandez stands up, backs off an elbow Miller on the dome. Miller lands a powerful low kick as he eats a right hand, and he fires a kick to the opposite leg as Hernandez’ balance is shaken up from these kicks. Miller takes a few right hands cleanly and a knee on the belly, but he keeps pushing forward throwing bombs. Miller checks a body kick and cracks Hernandez with a left hand, and Hernandez shakes it off and starts to get his jab going. Miller leads the dance with a few haymakers, and Hernandez is light on his feet with quick, straight punches. Miller blocks kicks on both sides, and he takes a one-two and whiffs on a huge left hand. Hernandez pushes forward and bullies the veteran to the wall, but Miller grits his teeth and throws bombs. Hernandez blocks a kick and sticks out a jab, and he is met with a step-in vertical elbow. Miller reaches with a right hand, and he walks face-first into an elbow. Miller lands, Hernandez responds, and Miller lashes out again. Hernandez plants the ball of his foot on Miller’s chin, but Miller does not flinch. Hernandez gets Miller’s attention in an exchange, and Miller shakes him up. Hernandez throws hands, and Miller kicks low and sweeps Hernandez to the mat. Miller works his way to take the back, and he locks down a rear-naked choke that is tight but on the chin. Miller squeezes with everything he has left, and Hernandez grits it out and survives it to turn Miller around and stand up. “The Great Ape” rains down punches right to the bitter end, and this absolute thriller is now left in the hands of the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller (29-28 Miller)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Miller (29-28 Miller)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Hernandez but won't bet on him due to lack of trust. He acknowledges Hernandez's talent, speed, power, and wrestling, but notes his inconsistency and 'brain fart' moments. Angelo thinks Jim Miller will finally look old and slow, and Hernandez should win by being faster and stronger. However, he admits he'll be rooting for Miller and keeps his money in his pocket.

"Hernandez is going to be the pick but absolutely under no circumstances am I spending money on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady likes Hernandez to wrestle and grind out a decision, similar to his win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier. He notes that Miller has been controlled by wrestlers like Joe Solecki and Vince Pichel. He worries about Hernandez's cardio but thinks the path to victory is clear. He also mentions both have knockout power early, but expects a decision.

Hernandez by decision
"I'm still going Hernandez I'm taking Hernandez to kind of grind this one out win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody picks Hernandez based on tape and skill, calling him a better athlete who moves better and hits harder. He notes Hernandez is confidence-driven and coming in on short notice, which might help him avoid overthinking. He says Jim Miller is a better fighter but at 39 with Lyme disease, the train will fall off eventually. He acknowledges Hernandez's cardio issues and tendency to fall apart if he doesn't finish early, but thinks the short notice and no weight cut to 145 will benefit him.

Cody says the line is no good and Hernandez is massively untrustworthy. He mentions Miller is always the dog and has been live in similar spots. He says he can't bet Miller but picks Hernandez.
"I just gotta go based on tape and skill and I would say Hernandez is just a better athlete he moves better he hits harder he is a better athletic fighter Jim Miller is a better fighter fighter but you …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller as well, emphasizing that Hernandez's problems are mental and technical, not size-related. Miller is tough, crafty, and a harder hitter than Hernandez's recent opponents. Connor expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, and Miller to take over in later rounds.

"I'm picking Jim Miller as well. I'm I feel very confident. He will lose the first round of this fight... But I can't trust Hernandez not to find a way out of this fight if Miller can just hang tough."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Jacob is picking Jim Miller, calling it a matchup nightmare for Hernandez. He believes Hernandez looks great early but fades when pressured, and Miller's experience and toughness will take over. Jacob notes Miller's recent wins show power and submissions, and he thinks Hernandez's weight class changes indicate desperation. He expects Miller to outwork Hernandez and possibly finish him.

"I'm taking the experience here in Jim Miller I think he outworks this kid."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez has physical advantages in speed, power, and explosiveness, which should allow him to dictate the fight early. He can grind Miller against the cage or land a quick knockout. However, Miller's durability and cardio could become factors if Hernandez fades. Low confidence pick via decision.

Hernandez wins by decision
"I lean Hernandez... I'm gonna ultimately with very low confidence say that he wins this by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Paul picks Jim Miller but is hesitant, acknowledging Hernandez could land a big bomb early. He notes Miller's last three wins are all second-round finishes and that Hernandez tends to fall apart if he doesn't finish early. He says Miller is very live here and is the best underdog on the card. However, he won't bet the moneyline because he thinks the fight has to play out a certain way for Miller to win. He prefers a sprinkle on Miller round two and live betting.

Paul sprinkles Jim Miller round two. He says he's more interested in live betting if Miller survives round one. He mentions Miller was favored against Mata and Eric Gonzalez.
"I'm gonna sprinkle the round two prop for Jim Miller and uh and be more interested in entering uh from a live market perspective because if he's living after round one it is it's Miller time."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller, noting that Alexander Hernandez has only one round of fight in him and is taking this fight on short notice after a recent loss where he took heavy damage. He believes Miller's veteran experience and toughness will allow him to survive Hernandez's early onslaught and then take over, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in the second or third round
"I want to take Jim Miller here I'm gonna take Jim Miller they've made him an underdog against Alexander Hernandez who always has one round of fight in him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Zane picks Miller because Hernandez has fundamental issues with range and defense, and he overreacts to counter strikes. Miller is a good counter puncher and will find openings. Hernandez may win the first round, but if Miller survives, he can take over. Zane notes that Hernandez's confidence is fragile after moving back to lightweight.

Miller opened +210, now +191; Hernandez opened -250, now -241. Zane says he's surprised Miller is such an underdog and thinks even odds would be more accurate.
"I'll take Jim. Yeah, I'm gonna roll with it, too. I just her name did like it, you know, I said with the Jordan Wright situation. It's just like you see somebody in this kind of career limbo."
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 1:32 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 24 of 36 66% 35 of 48 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:03
Donald Cerrone 0 21 of 33 63% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 21 of 29 72% 32 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Donald Cerrone 0 17 of 26 65% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:08
2 Jim Miller 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 24 of 36 66% 16 of 28 6 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 27 0 of 0 7 of 9
Donald Cerrone 21 of 33 63% 12 of 20 6 of 8 3 of 5 21 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 21 of 29 72% 15 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 20 0 of 0 7 of 9
Donald Cerrone 17 of 26 65% 10 of 16 5 of 6 2 of 4 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 4 of 7 57% 2 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Angelo picks Jim Miller based on his recent knockout wins over prospects, while noting that Cerrone is stepping in on short notice and may not be in peak form. He acknowledges Cerrone's technical advantage but believes Miller's toughness and momentum give him the edge. He also mentions that Cerrone at +200 might be worth a small sprinkle.

Cerrone at +200 might be worth a couple dollar long shot
"I think i'm siding with jim miller here but the odds are kind of crazy donald cerrone is a two-to-one underdog and he might be worth a couple dollar sprinkle"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady is confident in Jim Miller, stating Donald Cerrone looks washed and doesn't want to be there. He notes Miller's power and first-round finishing ability, predicting a first-round knockout. He mentions Cerrone's recent struggles and weight cuts, while Miller is still active and motivated.

Miller by first round knockout
"give me uh jim miller to win jim miller to win my first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Cody thinks Miller's improved boxing and fast starts will overwhelm Cerrone, who has looked poor recently. He notes Miller's wrestling and submissions are also threats. He expects Miller to finish early.

"I think Jim Miller gets the pounce on him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Daniel Levi leans toward Donald Cerrone as the underdog, citing the price (+165) and the fact that Cerrone has beaten Miller before via head kick. He notes that Miller tends to slow down after the first round, and if Cerrone can weather the early storm, he can take over. Levi acknowledges that Cerrone is past his prime and has lost to lesser opponents, but he sees value in the dog price. He does not bet it himself.

Dog-or-pass; price is everything; no bet.
"i'm gonna lean with cowboy because of the price man plus 165"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Cerrone is the better fighter with more tools, and the line is too wide. Miller is a quick starter but if he doesn't finish early, Cerrone takes over. Cerrone at 170 lbs benefits him. The host predicts Cerrone by decision, noting Miller's cardio is not as bad as some claim.

Cerrone round 3/decision double chance
"i think the line is whack i think this should be closer to it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is torn, calling it a 50-50 fight. He likes Cerrone's chances if he survives the first round, especially at welterweight, but won't bet Miller at -185. He might sprinkle on a Cerrone late finish prop.

Cerrone round 3 +1600
"I don't know if I'm gonna get to Cerrone"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Donald Cerrone as an underdog, citing the fight being at welterweight where Cerrone won't have to cut as much weight, preserving his chin and cardio. He thinks Miller's power may not translate up a division and that Cerrone can survive the first round and rally in later rounds. He calls it a 50/50 fight and predicts a 29-28 decision for Cerrone.

underdog pick, fight of the night performance
"i'm gonna actually go with donald cerrone here in an underdog pick i think at 170 he shouldn't be that big of an underdog and this is a 50 50."
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady expects Jim Miller to get the fight to the ground and submit Pichel in the first round. He notes Pichel's poor takedown defense and thinks Miller is dangerous early. He sees value on Miller as an underdog.

first round submission, underdog pick
"give me jim miller first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Daniel Levi leans toward Jim Miller. He thinks Miller is the better fighter and can win a decision if he doesn't empty his gas tank in the first round. He notes that Pichel is a point fighter who doesn't push a high pace, which may not gas Miller out. However, he acknowledges Pichel's toughness and that Miller historically loses when fights go past the first round.

Miller by decision; Pichel's pace may not be enough to fatigue Miller
"i'm actually leaning towards jim miller here i think he's the better fighter"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 13, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Miller has the jiu-jitsu advantage and can catch Pichel from the bottom or hurt him on the feet. Pichel has ring rust and Miller is active. The fight likely ends inside the distance, with Miller by submission or Pichel by TKO. Miller's submission threat is real, and he has power in his hands. Confidence is low, but Miller gets the nod.

Under 2.5 rounds (+110); Miller wins by first-round submission
"I'm going to take Miller... I think he hits and hurts Vince Pichel and then eventually pulls off a rear naked choke or some sort of arm triangle."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller by submission in the first round, citing Miller's recent activity and veteran experience. He believes Pichel fights infrequently and may not be fully committed, while Miller is in shape and has a submission win over a common opponent.

submission in the first round
"jim miller wins the fight by submission in the first round"