UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
Age 31
Height 5' 7"
Reach 69"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Kai Kamaka III
5.4 SLpM
59.0% Str. Acc.
5.67 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.51 TD Avg
53.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Tony Kelley
5.55 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.85 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
52.0% TD Def.
1.4 Sub. Avg
Kai Kamaka III - Fight History
SCHED vs Luke Riley
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
WIN vs Dakota Hope
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kai Kamaka III 0 105 of 159 66% 144 of 199 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Dakota Hope 1 106 of 258 41% 155 of 312 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kai Kamaka III 0 21 of 36 58% 31 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Dakota Hope 1 42 of 89 47% 66 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
2 Kai Kamaka III 0 41 of 54 75% 59 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Dakota Hope 0 32 of 83 38% 44 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Kai Kamaka III 0 43 of 69 62% 54 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Dakota Hope 0 32 of 86 37% 45 of 100 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kai Kamaka III 105 of 159 66% 44 of 94 47 of 51 14 of 14 83 of 131 22 of 28 0 of 0
Dakota Hope 106 of 258 41% 62 of 201 43 of 54 1 of 3 61 of 197 44 of 57 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kai Kamaka III 21 of 36 58% 4 of 17 10 of 12 7 of 7 18 of 31 3 of 5 0 of 0
Dakota Hope 42 of 89 47% 23 of 68 19 of 21 0 of 0 19 of 56 22 of 29 1 of 4
2 Kai Kamaka III 41 of 54 75% 18 of 30 19 of 20 4 of 4 32 of 45 9 of 9 0 of 0
Dakota Hope 32 of 83 38% 19 of 64 13 of 18 0 of 1 20 of 71 12 of 12 0 of 0
3 Kai Kamaka III 43 of 69 62% 22 of 47 18 of 19 3 of 3 33 of 55 10 of 14 0 of 0
Dakota Hope 32 of 86 37% 20 of 69 11 of 15 1 of 2 22 of 70 10 of 16 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

Cody picks Kamaka, citing his experience and ability to win close decisions. He expects Kamaka's striking and takedown defense to edge out Hope, who may gas due to his explosive style.

"So for me it's Kai Kamaka in this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

Connor picks Kamaka, noting that Hope is aimless and doesn't build attacks. He expects Kamaka to make the fight harder than necessary but still win. Kamaka's experience and short-notice readiness are advantages, though he acknowledges Kamaka can get trapped into weird fights.

Kamaka opened -190, now -155; Hope opened +165, now +135. Short notice favors Kamaka.
"Kai kamaka is likely to go out there and get a finish always has been."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dakota Hope

Paul leans towards Hope, noting his physicality and wrestling. He expects Hope to take Kamaka down and control him, though he acknowledges Kamaka's experience.

"I think Dakota Hope's a guy heading in the right direction and he's got a path to victory that could work for him here. So hope for me as a small underdog will be you."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Kai Kamaka III

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kamaka III, citing his experience as a crafty veteran who has fought tough competition like Brendan Loughnane and Bubba Jenkins. He dismisses Dakota Hope's record as padded against lesser opponents and notes that Hope lost to a 9-7 fighter. He believes Kamaka's veteran savvy will be the difference.

"I think Kaik Kamaka's going to be a crafty vet out there... I'm going with Kaik Kamaka the third getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

Zane picks Kamaka confidently, noting that Kamaka is a more experienced professional who is likely to be ready on short notice. He sees Hope as a good athlete but without much MMA game, aimless and one-and-done as a striker. Kamaka's front-foot pressure and wrestling should overwhelm Hope.

Kamaka opened -190, now -155; Hope opened +165, now +135. Short notice favors Kamaka.
"I got it. Hey kai kamaka here. Yeah, I think so."
LOSS vs Danny Chavez
Draw (majority) (29–27, 28–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Hall vs. Strickland · Jul 31, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kai Kamaka III 0 41 of 110 37% 53 of 122 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:35
Danny Chavez 0 48 of 77 62% 80 of 114 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kai Kamaka III 0 9 of 31 29% 9 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Danny Chavez 0 14 of 19 73% 14 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Kai Kamaka III 0 15 of 47 31% 15 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Danny Chavez 0 22 of 39 56% 22 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Kai Kamaka III 0 17 of 32 53% 29 of 44 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
Danny Chavez 0 12 of 19 63% 44 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kai Kamaka III 41 of 110 37% 25 of 81 7 of 14 9 of 15 28 of 91 10 of 16 3 of 3
Danny Chavez 48 of 77 62% 9 of 28 15 of 20 24 of 29 42 of 68 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kai Kamaka III 9 of 31 29% 2 of 18 3 of 6 4 of 7 9 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Danny Chavez 14 of 19 73% 3 of 7 3 of 3 8 of 9 14 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kai Kamaka III 15 of 47 31% 9 of 35 2 of 5 4 of 7 14 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
Danny Chavez 22 of 39 56% 3 of 13 6 of 9 13 of 17 21 of 36 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Kai Kamaka III 17 of 32 53% 14 of 28 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 15 9 of 14 3 of 3
Danny Chavez 12 of 19 63% 3 of 8 6 of 8 3 of 3 7 of 13 5 of 6 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

Big Brady picks Kai Kamaka III in what he calls the toughest fight to call on the card. He favors Kamaka's youth and higher volume, noting that Chavez is low-volume and was exposed by Jared Gordon. However, he acknowledges both fighters have flaws and can be taken down. He predicts a decision win for Kamaka.

"i will take kai tomoka to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Danny Chavez

Cody leans towards Danny Chavez, citing Kamaka's poor cardio and Chavez's leg kicks and smart game plan. He notes that Kamaka starts strong but fades, and Chavez has shown he can exploit that. Cody believes Chavez can win a decision or even get a finish if Kamaka gasses. He sees value in Chavez at near pick'em odds.

"i'm kind of leaning towards uh the slight underdog upset on danny chavez"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2021 (fight day)
Kai Kamaka III

Levi thinks Kamaka has a couple of physical advantages and believes he will edge out a close fight. He references Kamaka's controversial loss to TJ Brown as a robbery, suggesting Kamaka deserved the win. Levi acknowledges Chavez's durability and calf kicks but leans with Kamaka to get it done, though he admits the fight could be close and competitive.

"I personally think that kai kamaka is going to edge out this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Danny Chavez

Chavez trains at MMA Masters and uses calf kicks effectively. Kamaka struggles when opponents push the pace and get their own game going. Chavez should target the calf kick early to slow Kamaka, then mix in striking and takedowns. Kamaka is on short notice, which favors Chavez. Even money is a slight advantage for Chavez.

"I do like Chavez on the spot... if you're getting even money here I give the slight advantage to Chavez"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Danny Chavez

Paul also picks Danny Chavez, agreeing with Cody's reasoning. He notes that Chavez has a clear path to victory with leg kicks and takedowns, and that Kamaka's cardio is a major liability. Paul is not extremely confident but sees Chavez as the slight favorite in a close fight.

"i definitely see a clear path to victory for danny chavez here so i'm with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Danny Chavez

The MMA Guru picks Danny Chavez over Kai Kamaka III, noting that Chavez's main weakness is grappling, but Kamaka is not a grappler. He expects Chavez to chop at Kamaka's lead leg with calf kicks, as Kamaka sits heavy on his lead leg. He predicts Chavez will win by unanimous decision 29-28, with Kamaka possibly winning the first round but fading as the fight goes on.

Chavez by unanimous decision 29-28
"i'm gonna go with danny chavez here... i think danny chavez is going to be able to chop at the calf of kakamaka"
LOSS vs T.J. Brown
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka · May 01, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Brown 1 61 of 128 47% 85 of 155 1 of 1 100% 0 0 5:38
Kai Kamaka III 0 82 of 211 38% 110 of 243 2 of 4 50% 1 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Brown 0 22 of 47 46% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Kai Kamaka III 0 34 of 88 38% 35 of 91 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 T.J. Brown 1 26 of 49 53% 40 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
Kai Kamaka III 0 24 of 69 34% 40 of 87 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:25
3 T.J. Brown 0 13 of 32 40% 22 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:09
Kai Kamaka III 0 24 of 54 44% 35 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Brown 61 of 128 47% 38 of 100 14 of 17 9 of 11 51 of 115 1 of 1 9 of 12
Kai Kamaka III 82 of 211 38% 54 of 174 19 of 26 9 of 11 77 of 204 3 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Brown 22 of 47 46% 11 of 34 4 of 4 7 of 9 18 of 43 1 of 1 3 of 3
Kai Kamaka III 34 of 88 38% 17 of 63 9 of 15 8 of 10 33 of 85 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 T.J. Brown 26 of 49 53% 18 of 40 7 of 8 1 of 1 20 of 40 0 of 0 6 of 9
Kai Kamaka III 24 of 69 34% 19 of 63 5 of 6 0 of 0 24 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 T.J. Brown 13 of 32 40% 9 of 26 3 of 5 1 of 1 13 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kai Kamaka III 24 of 54 44% 18 of 48 5 of 5 1 of 1 20 of 50 2 of 2 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by decision, taking a shot on the underdog. He believes Brown's wrestling and grappling are superior, and that Brown can take Kamaka down and wear him out. Brady notes that Kamaka slows down as fights progress and has poor grappling off his back. He also mentions Brown's full training camp at Glory MMA with James Krause, which he sees as a positive. Brady thinks the line should be closer to a pick'em.

decision win for Brown
"i'm going to take a shot on the dog here i'm going to take tj brown to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Cody sees T.J. Brown as a live underdog now that he is training with James Krause at Glory MMA. He notes that Brown has a submission game and grappling prowess, but his cardio is a major concern. He thinks if Brown uses a proper game plan and doesn't gas out, he can take down Kamaka and submit him. He points out that Kamaka has looked unimpressive, with losses to low-level opponents and a close win over Tony Kelley. He believes Krause's coaching can help Brown manage his energy and fight smart.

"so uh again i'm going to classify him as live underdog"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win, citing his potential as a prospect and the fact that T.J. Brown has a weak chin and poor fight IQ. He notes that Kamaka's last loss was on short notice with a bad weight cut, and that he has since moved to a better training camp. Levi believes Kamaka can outwork Brown if he stays off his back.

"i'm going to pick kakamaka to get this win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
T.J. Brown

The host picks T.J. Brown by submission, expecting him to take down Kai Kamaka and wear him out. He notes Kamaka's poor cardio and lack of power, while Brown is a grappler who can chain wrestle. He believes Brown will eventually find a submission in the second or third round.

T.J. Brown by submission at +525; also mentions Brown inside the distance at +335 and round 3 prop at +1500
"I like tj brown i think he's gonna outlast kai kamaka hopefully he stretches it all the way to the third round and chokes him up there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses both fighters' cardio issues and the difficulty in capping the fight. He mentions that Brown's game falls apart if he doesn't finish early, and that Kamaka has looked poor. He does not commit to a side.

"this one's very difficult to cap because they both got bad cardio so it's like who's bad cardio is going to cost them the fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kamaka III over T.J. Brown, noting that Kamaka is younger and more committed to his career, while Brown has been beaten eight times and seems to be Bryce Mitchell's sparring partner. He expects Brown to get takedowns in the first round but fade in the later rounds, allowing Kamaka to win the last two rounds and take a 29-28 decision.

"i'm going to be going with kakamaka here he made a mistake in his last fight i feel like he's going to bounce back from that"
LOSS vs Jonathan Pearce
TKO (punches) R2 4:28 · UFC on ESPN: Smith vs. Clark · Nov 28, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Pearce 0 51 of 100 51% 113 of 172 5 of 7 71% 1 0 3:26
Kai Kamaka III 0 47 of 83 56% 48 of 84 1 of 3 33% 1 1 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Pearce 0 22 of 55 40% 23 of 56 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Kai Kamaka III 0 35 of 64 54% 36 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:11
2 Jonathan Pearce 0 29 of 45 64% 90 of 116 4 of 4 100% 1 0 2:51
Kai Kamaka III 0 12 of 19 63% 12 of 19 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Pearce 51 of 100 51% 34 of 76 12 of 19 5 of 5 27 of 71 6 of 9 18 of 20
Kai Kamaka III 47 of 83 56% 20 of 51 20 of 25 7 of 7 44 of 79 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Pearce 22 of 55 40% 10 of 37 9 of 15 3 of 3 19 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0
Kai Kamaka III 35 of 64 54% 13 of 37 15 of 20 7 of 7 35 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Pearce 29 of 45 64% 24 of 39 3 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 20 3 of 5 18 of 20
Kai Kamaka III 12 of 19 63% 7 of 14 5 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 15 2 of 3 1 of 1
WIN vs Tony Kelley
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kai Kamaka III 0 114 of 185 61% 138 of 216 5 of 5 100% 0 0 5:09
Tony Kelley 0 114 of 226 50% 185 of 298 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kai Kamaka III 0 43 of 72 59% 49 of 79 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:13
Tony Kelley 0 24 of 59 40% 37 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kai Kamaka III 0 32 of 56 57% 34 of 58 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:37
Tony Kelley 0 43 of 81 53% 63 of 102 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Kai Kamaka III 0 39 of 57 68% 55 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:19
Tony Kelley 0 47 of 86 54% 85 of 124 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kai Kamaka III 114 of 185 61% 49 of 113 64 of 71 1 of 1 90 of 160 22 of 22 2 of 3
Tony Kelley 114 of 226 50% 63 of 152 35 of 54 16 of 20 76 of 182 38 of 44 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kai Kamaka III 43 of 72 59% 22 of 49 21 of 23 0 of 0 34 of 62 8 of 8 1 of 2
Tony Kelley 24 of 59 40% 5 of 35 9 of 14 10 of 10 22 of 57 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Kai Kamaka III 32 of 56 57% 12 of 32 19 of 23 1 of 1 30 of 54 1 of 1 1 of 1
Tony Kelley 43 of 81 53% 29 of 56 11 of 20 3 of 5 24 of 60 19 of 21 0 of 0
3 Kai Kamaka III 39 of 57 68% 15 of 32 24 of 25 0 of 0 26 of 44 13 of 13 0 of 0
Tony Kelley 47 of 86 54% 29 of 61 15 of 20 3 of 5 30 of 65 17 of 21 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Big Brady was impressed by Tony Kelley's performance against Kevin Aguilar, noting his crisp striking and takedowns. He thinks Kelley is the better defensive striker and has a size advantage. However, he admits the pick might change after more research and is not confident due to limited tape on Kamaka.

"i think tony kelly is the better fighter and i'm picking him to win"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win his UFC debut. He believes Kamaka is the superior athlete and more well-rounded fighter. He notes Kamaka's aggressive style, body work, and cardio from his LFA fight. He criticizes Tony Kelley's takedown defense and tendency to play off his back. He expects Kamaka to push the pace and win a decision or late finish.

Kamaka by decision; Kelley's takedown defense is a weakness; Kamaka's body attacks are effective
"i'm going to go with kamaka i think he's probably the more well-rounded fighter i think he's got the higher ceiling"
Tony Kelley - Fight History
LOSS vs Adrian Yañez
TKO (punches) R1 3:49 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Adrian Yañez 1 35 of 67 52% 36 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Tony Kelley 0 20 of 49 40% 21 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Adrian Yañez 1 35 of 67 52% 36 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Tony Kelley 0 20 of 49 40% 21 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Adrian Yañez 35 of 67 52% 29 of 60 6 of 7 0 of 0 29 of 60 1 of 2 5 of 5
Tony Kelley 20 of 49 40% 12 of 29 6 of 16 2 of 4 20 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Adrian Yañez 35 of 67 52% 29 of 60 6 of 7 0 of 0 29 of 60 1 of 2 5 of 5
Tony Kelley 20 of 49 40% 12 of 29 6 of 16 2 of 4 20 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Angelo picks Tony Kelley in an upset, citing his forward pressure, volume, and ability to disrupt Adrian Yañez's rhythm. He notes Yañez's slow starts and willingness to brawl, which plays into Kelley's hands. He mentions Kelley's impressive win over Randy Costa (129 strikes to 32) and believes Kelley can maintain pace.

"i think i'm going tony kelly here because even though yanez is the more technical striker his slow start and willingness to engage in a brawl can lead him down the wrong path"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez to win by third-round knockout. He notes Yañez is a slow starter but has clear power advantage and good combinations, while Kelley is very hittable with 45% striking defense. He expects Kelley to win the first round but Yañez's damage to accumulate and lead to a late knockout.

third round knockout
"I like giannis here i like him by second or third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Cody picks Yañez but emphasizes the over 2.5 rounds as the best bet on the card. He notes neither fighter has been finished and Yañez tends to have close fights. He thinks Yañez's technical striking will win but the fight goes to decision. He calls the over 2.5 a 'face slapper' line.

Over 2.5 rounds (biggest investment of the week)
"over two and a half i think is the play of the card here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Daniel Levi leans Adrian Yañez, citing his cleaner hands and improved kicking game, plus the hometown advantage in Texas. However, he notes Yañez absorbs a lot of strikes (nearly six per minute) and Tony Kelley is a durable, high-output fighter who could make it competitive. Levi thinks it will be a close three-round fight and Yañez may get a decision, but the -280 price is too high for comfort. He acknowledges Kelley at +240 has value.

Yañez -280 is too high; Kelley +240 has value; close decision likely
"i lean yanez but i mean i don't fault y'all for taking that shot on tony kelly"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Paul is considering a Tony Kelley play, noting Yañez's struggles against aggressive fighters and his close split decisions. He thinks Kelley's durability and improved training with Andrea Lee make him a live underdog. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds; Tony Kelley by decision +600
"i'm contemplating a tony kelly play truth be told"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The MMA Guru picks Adrian Yañez, though he worries about his performance against Davey Grant. He believes Tony Kelley is tough but has been eking out close decisions. He expects Yañez to use better distance control and body shots, winning a decision (29-28 or 30-27) in a scrappy fight, with Kelley surviving but losing.

"i'm gonna be sliding with adrien yanez here... i think he'll invest in body shots he has got good take down defense"
WIN vs Randy Costa
TKO (elbows) R2 4:15 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tony Kelley 0 31 of 65 47% 32 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:29
Randy Costa 0 82 of 169 48% 129 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tony Kelley 0 16 of 37 43% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Randy Costa 0 35 of 90 38% 50 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
2 Tony Kelley 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:01
Randy Costa 0 47 of 79 59% 79 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tony Kelley 31 of 65 47% 20 of 54 11 of 11 0 of 0 19 of 53 12 of 12 0 of 0
Randy Costa 82 of 169 48% 26 of 93 43 of 62 13 of 14 27 of 93 32 of 42 23 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tony Kelley 16 of 37 43% 8 of 29 8 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 29 8 of 8 0 of 0
Randy Costa 35 of 90 38% 6 of 48 23 of 35 6 of 7 17 of 64 18 of 26 0 of 0
2 Tony Kelley 15 of 28 53% 12 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 24 4 of 4 0 of 0
Randy Costa 47 of 79 59% 20 of 45 20 of 27 7 of 7 10 of 29 14 of 16 23 of 34
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Big Brady picks Randy Costa but with low confidence due to Costa's questionable cardio. He notes that Costa is explosive and powerful in the first round but tends to fade if the fight goes past round one, as seen in previous fights. He believes Costa will likely finish Kelley early by knockout, but if Kelley survives the initial storm, Kelley's cardio advantage could lead to a win. Brady mentions he would not bet Costa on the moneyline but would consider a round 1 or inside the distance prop.

Randy Costa round 1 or inside the distance
"give me randy costa for the win i think he does knock out tony kelly in the first round but if he does not i think the fight gets very very interesting"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Daniel Levi picks Tony Kelley to win by late stoppage or decision. He argues that Randy Costa is a first-round finisher but fades if he can't get the knockout, citing losses to Brandon Davis and Adrian Yanez. Levi emphasizes Kelley's durability, never being finished, and his experience going five rounds. He believes if Kelley survives the first seven minutes, Costa will fall apart mentally and physically. Levi notes Costa's questionable mentality, referencing an interview where Costa cried before an amateur fight.

"just stay alive for seven minutes tony and then you're a very live underdog to come out here and win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randy Costa

Costa is the much better striker, quicker and more explosive, but his gas tank is a major concern. If he doesn't finish early, Kelley will take over in the later rounds. The fight likely ends inside the distance, either by Costa's early KO or Kelley's late submission. The play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' to cover both outcomes.

fight doesn't go to decision
"the play here is the fight doesn't go to decision i'm expecting kosovo to starch him in round one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Randy Costa

The MMA Guru confidently picks Randy Costa to win by head kick KO in the first round. He praises Costa's potential and striking, noting his impressive performance against Adrian Yanez. He criticizes Tony Kelley's one-dimensional style and lack of cardio, believing Costa's reach advantage and power will be decisive.

head kick KO in first round
"i think he's going to get a head kick ko in the first round that's what i'm going for don't mess with the zohan"
WIN vs Ali AlQaisi
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Oct 11, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tony Kelley 0 29 of 67 43% 58 of 103 5 of 15 33% 1 0 6:00
Ali AlQaisi 0 23 of 62 37% 61 of 109 0 of 0 --- 4 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tony Kelley 0 0 of 3 0% 20 of 24 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:48
Ali AlQaisi 0 1 of 2 50% 13 of 16 0 of 0 --- 4 0 0:22
2 Tony Kelley 0 7 of 19 36% 16 of 32 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:50
Ali AlQaisi 0 7 of 19 36% 22 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
3 Tony Kelley 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 47 2 of 9 22% 0 0 0:22
Ali AlQaisi 0 15 of 41 36% 26 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tony Kelley 29 of 67 43% 12 of 42 3 of 6 14 of 19 27 of 61 1 of 3 1 of 3
Ali AlQaisi 23 of 62 37% 11 of 43 5 of 9 7 of 10 21 of 58 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tony Kelley 0 of 3 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ali AlQaisi 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tony Kelley 7 of 19 36% 3 of 12 1 of 4 3 of 3 6 of 16 0 of 1 1 of 2
Ali AlQaisi 7 of 19 36% 4 of 14 0 of 0 3 of 5 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tony Kelley 22 of 45 48% 9 of 29 2 of 2 11 of 14 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 1
Ali AlQaisi 15 of 41 36% 7 of 28 5 of 9 3 of 4 13 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Ali AlQaisi

Big Brady picks the underdog AlQaisi, citing his takedown and submission game as a clear path to victory against Kelley's questionable takedown defense. He notes Kelley throws high volume but can be taken down easily. He expects AlQaisi to win a close decision if he sticks to takedowns and doesn't tire.

AlQaisi by decision
"i'm gonna go with the underdog here and i'm gonna go with al casey to get the win"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Daniel picks Tony Kelley to win, likely by finish. He notes that Kelley has a wider arsenal of strikes and better cardio, while AlQaisi is stiff and one-dimensional. He believes Kelley's volume and calf kicks will be too much, and that AlQaisi's top control is not good enough to keep Kelley down. Daniel also mentions that Kelley showed good cardio in his short-notice fight against Kamaka.

Daniel predicts a finish for Kelley, possibly by strikes. He also mentions that Kelley dropped to 135 for this fight.
"I feel like tony kelly this is his fight and i feel like he's actually going to finish alkazi somewhere along the way so i got a tony kelly"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Kelley has superior striking, footwork, and range, but this is his first fight at bantamweight and he took damage in his last fight. AlQaisi will likely try to grapple, but Kelley's takedown defense and offensive guard should keep him safe. Expect a decision win for Kelley.

"i do like kelly here there's a little bit of skepticism on my end"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

The Guru picks Kelley, citing his size at bantamweight and past performances. He notes Kelley went to a split decision with Kevin Aguilar (who was on a tear) and looked good in a loss to Kai Kamaka. He believes Kelley will be too big and rangy, dominating on the feet and in grappling, and predicts a third-round finish.

third round finish
"i think he'll be ali elquisi and i'll say he'll win by a third round finish"
LOSS vs Kai Kamaka III
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kai Kamaka III 0 114 of 185 61% 138 of 216 5 of 5 100% 0 0 5:09
Tony Kelley 0 114 of 226 50% 185 of 298 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kai Kamaka III 0 43 of 72 59% 49 of 79 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:13
Tony Kelley 0 24 of 59 40% 37 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kai Kamaka III 0 32 of 56 57% 34 of 58 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:37
Tony Kelley 0 43 of 81 53% 63 of 102 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Kai Kamaka III 0 39 of 57 68% 55 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:19
Tony Kelley 0 47 of 86 54% 85 of 124 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kai Kamaka III 114 of 185 61% 49 of 113 64 of 71 1 of 1 90 of 160 22 of 22 2 of 3
Tony Kelley 114 of 226 50% 63 of 152 35 of 54 16 of 20 76 of 182 38 of 44 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kai Kamaka III 43 of 72 59% 22 of 49 21 of 23 0 of 0 34 of 62 8 of 8 1 of 2
Tony Kelley 24 of 59 40% 5 of 35 9 of 14 10 of 10 22 of 57 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Kai Kamaka III 32 of 56 57% 12 of 32 19 of 23 1 of 1 30 of 54 1 of 1 1 of 1
Tony Kelley 43 of 81 53% 29 of 56 11 of 20 3 of 5 24 of 60 19 of 21 0 of 0
3 Kai Kamaka III 39 of 57 68% 15 of 32 24 of 25 0 of 0 26 of 44 13 of 13 0 of 0
Tony Kelley 47 of 86 54% 29 of 61 15 of 20 3 of 5 30 of 65 17 of 21 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Big Brady was impressed by Tony Kelley's performance against Kevin Aguilar, noting his crisp striking and takedowns. He thinks Kelley is the better defensive striker and has a size advantage. However, he admits the pick might change after more research and is not confident due to limited tape on Kamaka.

"i think tony kelly is the better fighter and i'm picking him to win"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win his UFC debut. He believes Kamaka is the superior athlete and more well-rounded fighter. He notes Kamaka's aggressive style, body work, and cardio from his LFA fight. He criticizes Tony Kelley's takedown defense and tendency to play off his back. He expects Kamaka to push the pace and win a decision or late finish.

Kamaka by decision; Kelley's takedown defense is a weakness; Kamaka's body attacks are effective
"i'm going to go with kamaka i think he's probably the more well-rounded fighter i think he's got the higher ceiling"
Expert Picks (2)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Big Brady was impressed by Tony Kelley's performance against Kevin Aguilar, noting his crisp striking and takedowns. He thinks Kelley is the better defensive striker and has a size advantage. However, he admits the pick might change after more research and is not confident due to limited tape on Kamaka.

"i think tony kelly is the better fighter and i'm picking him to win"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win his UFC debut. He believes Kamaka is the superior athlete and more well-rounded fighter. He notes Kamaka's aggressive style, body work, and cardio from his LFA fight. He criticizes Tony Kelley's takedown defense and tendency to play off his back. He expects Kamaka to push the pace and win a decision or late finish.

Kamaka by decision; Kelley's takedown defense is a weakness; Kamaka's body attacks are effective
"i'm going to go with kamaka i think he's probably the more well-rounded fighter i think he's got the higher ceiling"