Career Averages - Kai Kamaka III
Career Averages - Tony Kelley
Kai Kamaka III - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 105 of 159 | 66% | 144 of 199 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Dakota Hope | 1 | 106 of 258 | 41% | 155 of 312 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 31 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Dakota Hope | 1 | 42 of 89 | 47% | 66 of 117 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 41 of 54 | 75% | 59 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Dakota Hope | 0 | 32 of 83 | 38% | 44 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 43 of 69 | 62% | 54 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Dakota Hope | 0 | 32 of 86 | 37% | 45 of 100 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 105 of 159 | 66% | 44 of 94 | 47 of 51 | 14 of 14 | 83 of 131 | 22 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Dakota Hope | 106 of 258 | 41% | 62 of 201 | 43 of 54 | 1 of 3 | 61 of 197 | 44 of 57 | 1 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 21 of 36 | 58% | 4 of 17 | 10 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 18 of 31 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Dakota Hope | 42 of 89 | 47% | 23 of 68 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 56 | 22 of 29 | 1 of 4 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 41 of 54 | 75% | 18 of 30 | 19 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 45 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Dakota Hope | 32 of 83 | 38% | 19 of 64 | 13 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 20 of 71 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 43 of 69 | 62% | 22 of 47 | 18 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 33 of 55 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Dakota Hope | 32 of 86 | 37% | 20 of 69 | 11 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 22 of 70 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Kamaka, citing his experience and ability to win close decisions. He expects Kamaka's striking and takedown defense to edge out Hope, who may gas due to his explosive style.
Connor picks Kamaka, noting that Hope is aimless and doesn't build attacks. He expects Kamaka to make the fight harder than necessary but still win. Kamaka's experience and short-notice readiness are advantages, though he acknowledges Kamaka can get trapped into weird fights.
Paul leans towards Hope, noting his physicality and wrestling. He expects Hope to take Kamaka down and control him, though he acknowledges Kamaka's experience.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kamaka III, citing his experience as a crafty veteran who has fought tough competition like Brendan Loughnane and Bubba Jenkins. He dismisses Dakota Hope's record as padded against lesser opponents and notes that Hope lost to a 9-7 fighter. He believes Kamaka's veteran savvy will be the difference.
Zane picks Kamaka confidently, noting that Kamaka is a more experienced professional who is likely to be ready on short notice. He sees Hope as a good athlete but without much MMA game, aimless and one-and-done as a striker. Kamaka's front-foot pressure and wrestling should overwhelm Hope.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 41 of 110 | 37% | 53 of 122 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 48 of 77 | 62% | 80 of 114 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 9 of 31 | 29% | 9 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 15 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 29 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 44 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 41 of 110 | 37% | 25 of 81 | 7 of 14 | 9 of 15 | 28 of 91 | 10 of 16 | 3 of 3 |
| Danny Chavez | 48 of 77 | 62% | 9 of 28 | 15 of 20 | 24 of 29 | 42 of 68 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 9 of 31 | 29% | 2 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Chavez | 14 of 19 | 73% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 15 of 47 | 31% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Chavez | 22 of 39 | 56% | 3 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 17 | 21 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 17 of 32 | 53% | 14 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 9 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Danny Chavez | 12 of 19 | 63% | 3 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Kai Kamaka III in what he calls the toughest fight to call on the card. He favors Kamaka's youth and higher volume, noting that Chavez is low-volume and was exposed by Jared Gordon. However, he acknowledges both fighters have flaws and can be taken down. He predicts a decision win for Kamaka.
Cody leans towards Danny Chavez, citing Kamaka's poor cardio and Chavez's leg kicks and smart game plan. He notes that Kamaka starts strong but fades, and Chavez has shown he can exploit that. Cody believes Chavez can win a decision or even get a finish if Kamaka gasses. He sees value in Chavez at near pick'em odds.
Levi thinks Kamaka has a couple of physical advantages and believes he will edge out a close fight. He references Kamaka's controversial loss to TJ Brown as a robbery, suggesting Kamaka deserved the win. Levi acknowledges Chavez's durability and calf kicks but leans with Kamaka to get it done, though he admits the fight could be close and competitive.
Chavez trains at MMA Masters and uses calf kicks effectively. Kamaka struggles when opponents push the pace and get their own game going. Chavez should target the calf kick early to slow Kamaka, then mix in striking and takedowns. Kamaka is on short notice, which favors Chavez. Even money is a slight advantage for Chavez.
Paul also picks Danny Chavez, agreeing with Cody's reasoning. He notes that Chavez has a clear path to victory with leg kicks and takedowns, and that Kamaka's cardio is a major liability. Paul is not extremely confident but sees Chavez as the slight favorite in a close fight.
The MMA Guru picks Danny Chavez over Kai Kamaka III, noting that Chavez's main weakness is grappling, but Kamaka is not a grappler. He expects Chavez to chop at Kamaka's lead leg with calf kicks, as Kamaka sits heavy on his lead leg. He predicts Chavez will win by unanimous decision 29-28, with Kamaka possibly winning the first round but fading as the fight goes on.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 1 | 61 of 128 | 47% | 85 of 155 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:38 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 82 of 211 | 38% | 110 of 243 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 34 of 88 | 38% | 35 of 91 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 1 | 26 of 49 | 53% | 40 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 24 of 69 | 34% | 40 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 22 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:09 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 35 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 61 of 128 | 47% | 38 of 100 | 14 of 17 | 9 of 11 | 51 of 115 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 12 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 82 of 211 | 38% | 54 of 174 | 19 of 26 | 9 of 11 | 77 of 204 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 22 of 47 | 46% | 11 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 9 | 18 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 34 of 88 | 38% | 17 of 63 | 9 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 33 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 26 of 49 | 53% | 18 of 40 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 24 of 69 | 34% | 19 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 13 of 32 | 40% | 9 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 24 of 54 | 44% | 18 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by decision, taking a shot on the underdog. He believes Brown's wrestling and grappling are superior, and that Brown can take Kamaka down and wear him out. Brady notes that Kamaka slows down as fights progress and has poor grappling off his back. He also mentions Brown's full training camp at Glory MMA with James Krause, which he sees as a positive. Brady thinks the line should be closer to a pick'em.
Cody sees T.J. Brown as a live underdog now that he is training with James Krause at Glory MMA. He notes that Brown has a submission game and grappling prowess, but his cardio is a major concern. He thinks if Brown uses a proper game plan and doesn't gas out, he can take down Kamaka and submit him. He points out that Kamaka has looked unimpressive, with losses to low-level opponents and a close win over Tony Kelley. He believes Krause's coaching can help Brown manage his energy and fight smart.
Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win, citing his potential as a prospect and the fact that T.J. Brown has a weak chin and poor fight IQ. He notes that Kamaka's last loss was on short notice with a bad weight cut, and that he has since moved to a better training camp. Levi believes Kamaka can outwork Brown if he stays off his back.
The host picks T.J. Brown by submission, expecting him to take down Kai Kamaka and wear him out. He notes Kamaka's poor cardio and lack of power, while Brown is a grappler who can chain wrestle. He believes Brown will eventually find a submission in the second or third round.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses both fighters' cardio issues and the difficulty in capping the fight. He mentions that Brown's game falls apart if he doesn't finish early, and that Kamaka has looked poor. He does not commit to a side.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kamaka III over T.J. Brown, noting that Kamaka is younger and more committed to his career, while Brown has been beaten eight times and seems to be Bryce Mitchell's sparring partner. He expects Brown to get takedowns in the first round but fade in the later rounds, allowing Kamaka to win the last two rounds and take a 29-28 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 51 of 100 | 51% | 113 of 172 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 47 of 83 | 56% | 48 of 84 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 0:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 23 of 56 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 35 of 64 | 54% | 36 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 2 | Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 29 of 45 | 64% | 90 of 116 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Pearce | 51 of 100 | 51% | 34 of 76 | 12 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 71 | 6 of 9 | 18 of 20 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 47 of 83 | 56% | 20 of 51 | 20 of 25 | 7 of 7 | 44 of 79 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Pearce | 22 of 55 | 40% | 10 of 37 | 9 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 35 of 64 | 54% | 13 of 37 | 15 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 35 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jonathan Pearce | 29 of 45 | 64% | 24 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 18 of 20 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 12 of 19 | 63% | 7 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 114 of 185 | 61% | 138 of 216 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:09 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 114 of 226 | 50% | 185 of 298 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 43 of 72 | 59% | 49 of 79 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 37 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 34 of 58 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 43 of 81 | 53% | 63 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 39 of 57 | 68% | 55 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 47 of 86 | 54% | 85 of 124 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 114 of 185 | 61% | 49 of 113 | 64 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 90 of 160 | 22 of 22 | 2 of 3 |
| Tony Kelley | 114 of 226 | 50% | 63 of 152 | 35 of 54 | 16 of 20 | 76 of 182 | 38 of 44 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 43 of 72 | 59% | 22 of 49 | 21 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 62 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 2 |
| Tony Kelley | 24 of 59 | 40% | 5 of 35 | 9 of 14 | 10 of 10 | 22 of 57 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 32 of 56 | 57% | 12 of 32 | 19 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Tony Kelley | 43 of 81 | 53% | 29 of 56 | 11 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 24 of 60 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 39 of 57 | 68% | 15 of 32 | 24 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 44 | 13 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Kelley | 47 of 86 | 54% | 29 of 61 | 15 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 30 of 65 | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady was impressed by Tony Kelley's performance against Kevin Aguilar, noting his crisp striking and takedowns. He thinks Kelley is the better defensive striker and has a size advantage. However, he admits the pick might change after more research and is not confident due to limited tape on Kamaka.
Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win his UFC debut. He believes Kamaka is the superior athlete and more well-rounded fighter. He notes Kamaka's aggressive style, body work, and cardio from his LFA fight. He criticizes Tony Kelley's takedown defense and tendency to play off his back. He expects Kamaka to push the pace and win a decision or late finish.
Tony Kelley - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Yañez | 1 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 36 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adrian Yañez | 1 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 36 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Yañez | 35 of 67 | 52% | 29 of 60 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 |
| Tony Kelley | 20 of 49 | 40% | 12 of 29 | 6 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 20 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adrian Yañez | 35 of 67 | 52% | 29 of 60 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 |
| Tony Kelley | 20 of 49 | 40% | 12 of 29 | 6 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 20 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tony Kelley in an upset, citing his forward pressure, volume, and ability to disrupt Adrian Yañez's rhythm. He notes Yañez's slow starts and willingness to brawl, which plays into Kelley's hands. He mentions Kelley's impressive win over Randy Costa (129 strikes to 32) and believes Kelley can maintain pace.
Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez to win by third-round knockout. He notes Yañez is a slow starter but has clear power advantage and good combinations, while Kelley is very hittable with 45% striking defense. He expects Kelley to win the first round but Yañez's damage to accumulate and lead to a late knockout.
Cody picks Yañez but emphasizes the over 2.5 rounds as the best bet on the card. He notes neither fighter has been finished and Yañez tends to have close fights. He thinks Yañez's technical striking will win but the fight goes to decision. He calls the over 2.5 a 'face slapper' line.
Daniel Levi leans Adrian Yañez, citing his cleaner hands and improved kicking game, plus the hometown advantage in Texas. However, he notes Yañez absorbs a lot of strikes (nearly six per minute) and Tony Kelley is a durable, high-output fighter who could make it competitive. Levi thinks it will be a close three-round fight and Yañez may get a decision, but the -280 price is too high for comfort. He acknowledges Kelley at +240 has value.
Paul is considering a Tony Kelley play, noting Yañez's struggles against aggressive fighters and his close split decisions. He thinks Kelley's durability and improved training with Andrea Lee make him a live underdog. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Adrian Yañez, though he worries about his performance against Davey Grant. He believes Tony Kelley is tough but has been eking out close decisions. He expects Yañez to use better distance control and body shots, winning a decision (29-28 or 30-27) in a scrappy fight, with Kelley surviving but losing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 32 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 82 of 169 | 48% | 129 of 218 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Kelley | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 35 of 90 | 38% | 50 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 | |
| 2 | Tony Kelley | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 47 of 79 | 59% | 79 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Kelley | 31 of 65 | 47% | 20 of 54 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 53 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 82 of 169 | 48% | 26 of 93 | 43 of 62 | 13 of 14 | 27 of 93 | 32 of 42 | 23 of 34 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Kelley | 16 of 37 | 43% | 8 of 29 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 29 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 35 of 90 | 38% | 6 of 48 | 23 of 35 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 64 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tony Kelley | 15 of 28 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 47 of 79 | 59% | 20 of 45 | 20 of 27 | 7 of 7 | 10 of 29 | 14 of 16 | 23 of 34 |
Big Brady picks Randy Costa but with low confidence due to Costa's questionable cardio. He notes that Costa is explosive and powerful in the first round but tends to fade if the fight goes past round one, as seen in previous fights. He believes Costa will likely finish Kelley early by knockout, but if Kelley survives the initial storm, Kelley's cardio advantage could lead to a win. Brady mentions he would not bet Costa on the moneyline but would consider a round 1 or inside the distance prop.
Daniel Levi picks Tony Kelley to win by late stoppage or decision. He argues that Randy Costa is a first-round finisher but fades if he can't get the knockout, citing losses to Brandon Davis and Adrian Yanez. Levi emphasizes Kelley's durability, never being finished, and his experience going five rounds. He believes if Kelley survives the first seven minutes, Costa will fall apart mentally and physically. Levi notes Costa's questionable mentality, referencing an interview where Costa cried before an amateur fight.
Costa is the much better striker, quicker and more explosive, but his gas tank is a major concern. If he doesn't finish early, Kelley will take over in the later rounds. The fight likely ends inside the distance, either by Costa's early KO or Kelley's late submission. The play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' to cover both outcomes.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Randy Costa to win by head kick KO in the first round. He praises Costa's potential and striking, noting his impressive performance against Adrian Yanez. He criticizes Tony Kelley's one-dimensional style and lack of cardio, believing Costa's reach advantage and power will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 29 of 67 | 43% | 58 of 103 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 6:00 |
| Ali AlQaisi | 0 | 23 of 62 | 37% | 61 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 4 | 0 | 1:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Kelley | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 20 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:48 |
| Ali AlQaisi | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 4 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Tony Kelley | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 16 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Ali AlQaisi | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 22 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 3 | Tony Kelley | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 47 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Ali AlQaisi | 0 | 15 of 41 | 36% | 26 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Kelley | 29 of 67 | 43% | 12 of 42 | 3 of 6 | 14 of 19 | 27 of 61 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 |
| Ali AlQaisi | 23 of 62 | 37% | 11 of 43 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 10 | 21 of 58 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Kelley | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ali AlQaisi | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tony Kelley | 7 of 19 | 36% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Ali AlQaisi | 7 of 19 | 36% | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tony Kelley | 22 of 45 | 48% | 9 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 14 | 21 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Ali AlQaisi | 15 of 41 | 36% | 7 of 28 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks the underdog AlQaisi, citing his takedown and submission game as a clear path to victory against Kelley's questionable takedown defense. He notes Kelley throws high volume but can be taken down easily. He expects AlQaisi to win a close decision if he sticks to takedowns and doesn't tire.
Daniel picks Tony Kelley to win, likely by finish. He notes that Kelley has a wider arsenal of strikes and better cardio, while AlQaisi is stiff and one-dimensional. He believes Kelley's volume and calf kicks will be too much, and that AlQaisi's top control is not good enough to keep Kelley down. Daniel also mentions that Kelley showed good cardio in his short-notice fight against Kamaka.
Kelley has superior striking, footwork, and range, but this is his first fight at bantamweight and he took damage in his last fight. AlQaisi will likely try to grapple, but Kelley's takedown defense and offensive guard should keep him safe. Expect a decision win for Kelley.
The Guru picks Kelley, citing his size at bantamweight and past performances. He notes Kelley went to a split decision with Kevin Aguilar (who was on a tear) and looked good in a loss to Kai Kamaka. He believes Kelley will be too big and rangy, dominating on the feet and in grappling, and predicts a third-round finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 114 of 185 | 61% | 138 of 216 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:09 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 114 of 226 | 50% | 185 of 298 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 43 of 72 | 59% | 49 of 79 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 37 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 34 of 58 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 43 of 81 | 53% | 63 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 39 of 57 | 68% | 55 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 47 of 86 | 54% | 85 of 124 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 114 of 185 | 61% | 49 of 113 | 64 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 90 of 160 | 22 of 22 | 2 of 3 |
| Tony Kelley | 114 of 226 | 50% | 63 of 152 | 35 of 54 | 16 of 20 | 76 of 182 | 38 of 44 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 43 of 72 | 59% | 22 of 49 | 21 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 62 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 2 |
| Tony Kelley | 24 of 59 | 40% | 5 of 35 | 9 of 14 | 10 of 10 | 22 of 57 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 32 of 56 | 57% | 12 of 32 | 19 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Tony Kelley | 43 of 81 | 53% | 29 of 56 | 11 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 24 of 60 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 39 of 57 | 68% | 15 of 32 | 24 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 44 | 13 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Kelley | 47 of 86 | 54% | 29 of 61 | 15 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 30 of 65 | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady was impressed by Tony Kelley's performance against Kevin Aguilar, noting his crisp striking and takedowns. He thinks Kelley is the better defensive striker and has a size advantage. However, he admits the pick might change after more research and is not confident due to limited tape on Kamaka.
Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win his UFC debut. He believes Kamaka is the superior athlete and more well-rounded fighter. He notes Kamaka's aggressive style, body work, and cardio from his LFA fight. He criticizes Tony Kelley's takedown defense and tendency to play off his back. He expects Kamaka to push the pace and win a decision or late finish.
Expert Picks (2)
Big Brady was impressed by Tony Kelley's performance against Kevin Aguilar, noting his crisp striking and takedowns. He thinks Kelley is the better defensive striker and has a size advantage. However, he admits the pick might change after more research and is not confident due to limited tape on Kamaka.
Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win his UFC debut. He believes Kamaka is the superior athlete and more well-rounded fighter. He notes Kamaka's aggressive style, body work, and cardio from his LFA fight. He criticizes Tony Kelley's takedown defense and tendency to play off his back. He expects Kamaka to push the pace and win a decision or late finish.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!