UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Sep 27, 2020 · Flyweight · Completed
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Age 33
Height 5' 9"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 33
Height 5' 4"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Brandon Royval
5.54 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
4.25 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
0.65 TD Avg
75.0% TD Acc.
45.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kai Kara-France
4.46 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
3.24 SApM
64.0% Str. Def.
0.56 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
83.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Brandon Royval - Fight History
SCHED vs Lone'er Kavanagh
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
LOSS vs Manel Kape
KO R1 3:18 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 0 17 of 26 65% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Manel Kape 1 17 of 23 73% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 0 17 of 26 65% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Manel Kape 1 17 of 23 73% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 17 of 26 65% 5 of 10 6 of 8 6 of 8 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manel Kape 17 of 23 73% 6 of 10 5 of 6 6 of 7 15 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 17 of 26 65% 5 of 10 6 of 8 6 of 8 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manel Kape 17 of 23 73% 6 of 10 5 of 6 6 of 7 15 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-300); Royval (+240)

Round 1
This main event is a flyweight tilt many have circled on the calendar the day it was announced. Always in a wild scrap, Royval (17-8, 7-4 UFC) has reached all but the pinnacle of his division as bounces around the top five. After some delays and scrubbed pairings, he finally gets to take on the brick-fisted Kape (21-7, 6-3 UFC). The talk is over, the prep is finished, and it’s time for some action. Referee Herb Dean ushers the two to the center of the Octagon to issue final instructions and elicit a glove touch, which is heard and answered by the athletes. It’s on with the show, this being the final UFC bout on ESPN (unless they sign back with ESPN in 2033).
Kape marches Royval down immediately lobbing a hard calf kick at him to greet him. Royval answers him back. Violent pleasantries exchanged, the two get to it for real. Royval lands a side kick to the ribs, and Kape keeps targeting the lead leg. Royval answers in kind, and swipes out with a right hand on the way back. Kape chips at the front wheel once more with his low kick, and Royval makes sure to pay him back immediately. Royval lets rip a body kick that lands with a loud slap, and he kicks with the other leg which makes a thumping sound instead. Royval punches his way into a low kick combination, and he tags Kape upstairs to interrupt a combo. Another hefty body kick from “Raw Dawg” lands flush, who then targets the calf. Kape swings himself off-balance with a big kick, gathering himself in time to dodge a kick flying at his face.
Royval tosses up a high kick, and Kape rushes him. Something appears to bother Kape, who has to suddenly back off and put his hand on the fence. Oddly enough, the same thing happens to Royval, who looks to have jammed his toes on a kick. Kape walks him down and blasts him in the face with a ferocious right hand that puts him down for the count. “Starboy” unleashes a final barrage of fists while Royval tries to sit up and recover, knocking the Factory X fighter clean out and then switching him back online again. Dean sees when Royval goes limp a second time, and he intervenes. Royval is trying to stand at the time, but he is on wobbled legs and thinks to protest but decides against it. Cooler heads bring him over to his corner so that he can sit down and talk to his team now that the fight is over, and Kape hurries over to talk to someone seated outside of the cage. Ending the ESPN era with one destructive flurry, Kape ties the UFC flyweight record for the most knockouts in divisional history, tying Joe Benavidez with five.
The triumphant Kape challenges new flyweight king Joshua Van for his belt, claiming that he will, and we can’t make this up, “take his diapers.” Sometimes these things happen in MMA. With this 12-fight show in the books, the ESPN era of the UFC is now complete. With the winter break upcoming, there will be a whopping six weeks until the next UFC card on Jan. 24, a gap with no events not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic shut the sport down for a few months in 2020. There will be a few more major fight cards in 2025, with PFL Africa next week and Rizin’s NYE spectacular coming up soon. We will be there for them, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Brandon Royval R1 3:18 via KO (Punches)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Cody picks Royval as a plus money underdog, citing his infinite cardio, pressure, and volume. He believes Royval's improved striking and grappling will allow him to outwork Kape over five rounds, especially in deeper waters. He notes Kape's power but thinks Royval's chin can hold up and that Royval will win a close decision by outlanding him in significant strikes.

"I am going to chase that plus money on Brandon Royval. It's a five-round fight. And again, as far as I'm concerned, Brandon Royval is built for these 25-minute long fights."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Connor picks Kape but is hesitant, acknowledging that Kape has the potential to be elite but lacks a consistent process. He believes that if Kape comes out aggressive and forces exchanges, his speed, power, and accuracy should allow him to counter Royval's volume. Connor also notes that Royval's style is 'nonsense' and that Kape is an apex athlete who can hurt anyone. However, he admits that Kape's tendency to be inactive and not engage could be a problem, and that Royval's durability makes a finish unlikely.

Kape opened at -300 and is still at -300; Connor notes that Kape is a big favorite but doesn't comment on the value.
"I'm going to pick mano cop. Sure. Just say, because I mean, I, I know he's, you know, he's not losing a bunch. He beat Tetsaro, Tyra and Brandon Moreno, questionably both of them in two of his last three …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Lucrative James picks Manel Kape confidently, arguing that Brandon Royval's aggressive, pressure-heavy style plays into Kape's hands. He notes Kape's superior boxing, timing, and power, and believes Kape will hurt Royval multiple times, though a knockout is uncertain given Royval's durability. He projects Kape as a -250 favorite.

"I'm going to pick Manel Cape in this fight. I'm going to pick Minnel Cape fairly confidently in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Paul agrees with Cody, also taking Royval at plus 250. He highlights the Felipe dos Santos fight as evidence that Kape can be pushed in a striking battle, and doubts Kape can maintain high volume for 25 minutes. He sees Royval's durability and output as key factors.

"It's Brandon Royval plus 250 for me as well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Zane picks Royval because he believes Royval's high-volume, pressure-heavy style is more conducive to winning at high levels of MMA. He notes that Royval is big for the division, throws a ton, and is a dynamic grappler who will attack submissions. Zane also points out that Kape has a history of being inactive and not imposing his will, as seen in the Mochaev fight, and that Royval's style will force Kape to fight, which plays into Royval's hands. He also mentions that the small cage will help Royval.

Royval is the underdog at +250, which Zane thinks is too big a line; he sees no good reason for Kape to be such a favorite.
"I don't really see a good reason for cop to be a favorite here. I'm taking him on the whim that just, I think in a small cage, he can backroyvel up where royvel's tendency to just throw out stuff …"
LOSS vs Joshua Van
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 0 215 of 467 46% 216 of 468 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 1 204 of 305 66% 209 of 311 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 0 42 of 116 36% 42 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 0 52 of 79 65% 52 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brandon Royval 0 87 of 174 50% 87 of 174 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 0 74 of 106 69% 77 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brandon Royval 0 86 of 177 48% 87 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 1 78 of 120 65% 80 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 215 of 467 46% 179 of 422 22 of 27 14 of 18 205 of 451 10 of 16 0 of 0
Joshua Van 204 of 305 66% 138 of 232 37 of 43 29 of 30 181 of 270 20 of 27 3 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 42 of 116 36% 27 of 95 6 of 10 9 of 11 41 of 114 1 of 2 0 of 0
Joshua Van 52 of 79 65% 31 of 55 9 of 12 12 of 12 46 of 71 6 of 8 0 of 0
2 Brandon Royval 87 of 174 50% 77 of 163 7 of 7 3 of 4 81 of 165 6 of 9 0 of 0
Joshua Van 74 of 106 69% 50 of 81 18 of 19 6 of 6 65 of 95 9 of 11 0 of 0
3 Brandon Royval 86 of 177 48% 75 of 164 9 of 10 2 of 3 83 of 172 3 of 5 0 of 0
Joshua Van 78 of 120 65% 57 of 96 10 of 12 11 of 12 70 of 104 5 of 8 3 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-120), Royval (+100)

Round 1
In the “featured fight of the night,” flyweights roll the dice to see who may get the next crack at the champ. As it turns out, this de facto tournament will be resolved one bout later, when Alexandre Pantoja rematches Kai Kara-France for the throne. Having come up short in 2023, and already 0-2 against the champ Pantoja, Royval (17-7, 7-3 UFC) more than likely hopes there will be change in beltholder in about an hour. Looking to spoil the party of “Raw Dawg” will be the fast-rising 23-year-old Van (14-2, 7-1 UFC), who has shot up the ranks like a cannon and takes this bout on short notice. Despite that, Van is the betting favorite. Referee Jason Herzog will keep things on the up-and-up, although they kick off with a sporting fist bump.
Royval probes with his jab and sets up an early low kick. He digs a kick to the ribcage and goes back low to the calf on either side. Royval uses his reach to keep the younger man at bay, chipping away at him from a safe distance. For the first minute, Van is doing nothing more than taking potshots. Royval goes to the body again with his toes extended, and he rushes forward into the awaiting right hand from the 23-year-old. Van catches Royval twice more with his big right hand, and Royval shrugs them off and continues doing work from the outside. Royval splits the guard with jab after unanswered jab, moving and evading to not let Van get to him. Van misses on a right hand, and Royval clips him with his own short right hook. Van strikes the body with a right, and Royval reaches his target with jabs and a short check hook.
Van lands multiple blistering right hands, hitting “Raw Dawg” much harder than Royval has struck him yet. Royval goes to the body with a kick as he skirts away, and Van reaches him with a right. Van knocks Royval to his seat, although Royval stumbled on the way out. He bounces back to his feet, and Van is ready to crack him with another heavy right. Any time Royval closes the distance, Van has a right hand awaiting him. Van gets Royval’s attention twice, and Royval knees him hard in the chest. Van knocks Royval back a step with two powerful right hands on the cheek, and a third connects when Royval puts hands on him. Royval gets up close and personal, and although he delivers a single knee, Van rips the midsection with several fast fists. The strikes have marked up Royval’s nose, who does not appear concerned after getting hit hard. He potshots Van a few more times until the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Van
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 2
The fighters tap gloves before engaging, and Royval gets right back to his high-volume, low-power approach. He jams Van in the sternum with a smattering of knees before backing off, where he takes a right hand on the way out. The two swing at one another, forming a cloud of feet and fists reminiscent of an Andy Capp comic. Van drills Royval at the end of two right hands, only to eat a sharp knee on the jaw. Royval drives him back with a flurry, and his body kick allows him to get in and swing a left. Royval stings Van with a straight left, and Van comes over the top with a right. Van gets off a clubbing right in the midst of Royval’s jab-a-palooza, and he absorbs a low kick and two powerful uppercuts. Royval plants a one-two on the chin to shake up the youngster from Myanmar, and he opens up with several more punches. Van stands in the pocket and bangs with him, with Royval getting knocked back and needing to reset, his nose leaking.
Royval starts putting more behind his punches, and Van is still hurling with power. The stats are racking up fast, and Van’s right hand is a weapon that seemingly cannot miss. Van drives a knee to the chest and follows with an overhand right, and Royval rifles off a number of piston-like jabs. Van misses with his right, and Royval works him with three speedy punches. Royval’s right cheek shows damage, and he gets stood up in a combo. Royval lets jab after jab land on the nose, and he follows with long, straight left hands. Van attacks the body, and just when he is about to gain momentum, Royval is on him with a powerful salvo. They continue to unload into one another’s faces, stealing the hearts of the crowd. Royval walks straight through a hard combination, fires back and gets staggered ever-so briefly. Royval goes to the body, and they swing it out to the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Royval

Round 3
The flyweights tap gloves, and it takes nary a second for Royval to get behind his jab. He sways to avoid the worst of a right hand and fires back with a one-two. Van connects with a quick left hook, shaking Royval up with two more punches but eating a few on the way out. Van reaches out with a right hand, and he allows Royval to close in so he can smash him in the temple with his overhand right. Royval surges forward behind long arms, ignoring a few body shots to put his fists on Van’s face. Van cracks him with a huge right hand, and Royval just smiles. Royval drops a body kick on his foe, and they take a moment to compose themselves before going for broke again. Van lands a one-two, and Royval pays him right back with a knee up the middle and a few fiery fists back. Van gets in tight for a second to land body shots, and Royval disengages.
Royval drives four punches him, and Van drills him with a right hand that surprises Royval. The Factory x fighter takes a hard leg kick and goes to the body with his shin. The two brawl it out, and Royval may be bloody in the nose but he is not slowing down. Van digs a kick to the body, and Royval reaches him with a left. Van pays him back with a combo, and Royval gets in his face with a flurry. Royval goes to the body with a kick, and Van counters him up top. Royval strings together a three-punch combo, and he darts away before Van reaches him. Van stumbles his opponent with his power right, and he knees Royval in the nose. Royval checks a kick and crashes the pocket with an uppercut and several more punches. Van kicks Royval’s leg out, and he swings a right hand over the top. He catches Royval on the way in with a left, and Royval is not about to let him off the hook. With 15 seconds to go, the two batter and smash one another. Van knocks “Raw Dawg” to the mat in an insane exchange, following the former title challenger down to the mat and hammering him until time expires. What an incredible fight! Royval was hurt but made it to the end, and a new challenger has emerged. The flyweights delivered easily one of the best fights of the year, giving it everything they had and more. If only this one had two more rounds...in victory, Van proudly declares that whomever wins the title in the next match will have to go through him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)

The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Brandon Royval via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Angelo picks Brandon Royval because he believes Royval is still in his prime and will be the best fighter Joshua Van has ever faced. He notes that Van's UFC record is loaded with wrestlers and lower-level guys, and the last time Van fought a predominant striker, he was finished in the third round. He placed a bet on Royval weeks ago and is confident in the pick.

Angelo says he placed a bet on Royval a few weeks ago.
"I think Royval wins here. I've got a bet on Royval, and I placed that bet a few weeks ago."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Big Brady believes Royval is underrated, citing his wins over top competition like Taira, Moreno, and Nicolau. He notes Van has durability concerns, having been knocked out by Charles Johnson and hurt by Edgar Chairez. Brady thinks Royval's experience, cardio, and grappling advantage will be key, and predicts Royval will hurt Van, who will then shoot for a takedown and get submitted. He picks Royval by second-round submission.

Royval wins by second round submission
"I'll go Brandon Roy Val. Brandon Royal by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Connor initially wanted to pick Van but was convinced by Phil that Royval's style is a bad matchup for Van. He notes that Royval has become a long-range volume fighter who can frustrate opponents, and Van has struggled against tall, rangy fighters. He also mentions Royval's durability and pace as factors. However, he is not fully confident because Royval's style is not championship-level and he gives away a lot.

"I think I'm going to go with Rival and just say that the quick turnaround is going to be too much for van and that the, that Rival can put out pace round after round and at a range that …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joshua Van

The host acknowledges Royval's unorthodox striking may cause early trouble, but expects Van to land big shots in the second and third rounds, possibly getting a late TKO, but ultimately winning on the scorecards in the biggest win of his career.

win on scorecards, possible late TKO
"I expect Van to eventually touch up Brandon Roy Val, land those big shots, especially in the second and third round, maybe find a TKO late, but I think the 23-year-old ends up going on to win this fight on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joshua Van

The host picks Joshua Van, praising his boxing, head movement, and body work. He notes that Royval's volume often lacks sting and that Van's activity and recent form are advantages. He predicts Van will win a decision, taking the first two rounds, while Royval may take the third.

decision
"I'm going to go with Joshua Van. I think his boxing would be great. I think he can find the body very well here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Zane is also leaning towards Royval after being convinced by Phil. He notes that Royval's leaf-blower style at range could be problematic for Van, who has struggled against fighters who keep him at distance. He also mentions that Royval is durable and has a high pace. However, he is not confident because Royval's style is not impressive and Van could potentially overwhelm him if he gets inside.

"I kind of have just sold you on this, the way Phil sold me, because I was also thinking like, yeah, I'm like you, I'm not super impressed by Rival's game, but on reflection, he may in fact, be one …"
WIN vs Tatsuro Taira
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 0 124 of 232 53% 172 of 287 3 of 3 100% 3 2 2:23
Tatsuro Taira 0 42 of 99 42% 80 of 143 6 of 15 40% 1 0 12:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 0 17 of 55 30% 17 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tatsuro Taira 0 10 of 22 45% 11 of 24 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:44
2 Brandon Royval 0 3 of 14 21% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tatsuro Taira 0 5 of 7 71% 29 of 34 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:10
3 Brandon Royval 0 56 of 78 71% 81 of 105 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:57
Tatsuro Taira 0 5 of 21 23% 7 of 23 0 of 4 0% 1 0 1:45
4 Brandon Royval 0 5 of 11 45% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tatsuro Taira 0 8 of 13 61% 18 of 25 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:29
5 Brandon Royval 0 43 of 74 58% 57 of 93 1 of 1 100% 2 2 1:26
Tatsuro Taira 0 14 of 36 38% 15 of 37 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 124 of 232 53% 114 of 216 10 of 16 0 of 0 97 of 203 11 of 12 16 of 17
Tatsuro Taira 42 of 99 42% 34 of 91 5 of 5 3 of 3 38 of 93 0 of 1 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 17 of 55 30% 12 of 46 5 of 9 0 of 0 16 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tatsuro Taira 10 of 22 45% 6 of 18 2 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brandon Royval 3 of 14 21% 1 of 11 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tatsuro Taira 5 of 7 71% 4 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Brandon Royval 56 of 78 71% 54 of 76 2 of 2 0 of 0 32 of 52 9 of 10 15 of 16
Tatsuro Taira 5 of 21 23% 5 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Brandon Royval 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tatsuro Taira 8 of 13 61% 7 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 4
5 Brandon Royval 43 of 74 58% 43 of 73 0 of 1 0 of 0 41 of 72 1 of 1 1 of 1
Tatsuro Taira 14 of 36 38% 12 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-225), Royval (+185)

Round 1
The UFC has chosen well with this all-action flyweight scrap capping off the fight card. Fresh off a revenge win over Brandon Moreno, Royval (16-7, 6-3 UFC) is energized and fully capable of playing spoiler. Taira (16-0, 6-0 UFC) has yet to taste defeat, and his performances continue to dazzle as he works his way up the 125-pound ladder. The two are brought to the middle of the cage by referee Jason Herzog for final instructions, and they gladly bump fists before madness ensues. It’s on with the show. Royval hops in and out searching for an early jab, and he pitches out a high kick to further gauge his range. Royval has another head kick miss, and Taira tests his mettle with a light low kick. Royval connects with a body kick, and Taira changes levels on him. Royval defends with a guillotine choke, and he breaks free of the attempt with his back bouncing off the wall. Royval walks through a right hand to get off his own, and his subsequent head kick efforts continue missing. A straight left from Royval reddens the Japanese fighter’s nose, and he catches Taira coming in with another left hand. Royval kicks the body and spins around, with Taira getting off a right hand. Royval scores another body kick that does not get caught, and he snaps out a one-two to get Taira’s attention. Royval clubs his foe with a left hand, and he gets off another in short order before dancing away to a safe distance. Royval measures and clubs Taira once more with a left, having found its range with it and a body kick. Taira bends over and gets his hair buzzed with a back fist. Two more body kicks from Royval get through, and his jab splits the guard. Taira walks into a pair of punches, and he makes Royval stumble with a short combo and grabs hold of Royval from behind to drag him to the floor. Royval attacks a kneebar as soon as he hits a mat, and he transitions into a heel hook and tugs on it from the other side for an inverted variety. Taira turns but cannot get out of the leg danger, as Royval commits to it by rolling over. Taira slithers away from the submission, and Royval breaks free and darts after him with long punches before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval

Round 2
Royval is right in the center of the cage ready to pick up where he left off, and his long punches lead to a step-in knee. Taira threatens with a double, scooping Royval up and pushing off the fence to drag Royval down and take his back. Taira flattens Royval out for a moment, but Royval is a scrambler and he keeps moving any direction he can. Taira secures the body triangle to stifle the former title challenger’s escape attempts, and he slides over to take mount before stretching Royval out further. Royval scoots his way to put the wall behind him, with Taira sitting up and the leg grip still around his waist. Royval hand-fights to defend from a submission, and Taira looks to isolate a choke. Royval rolls over, turning twice until he grabs hold of Taira’s knee to spin him around. Taira further maintains control from behind, with Royval’s efforts in vain. Royval is warned for grabbing the inside of the glove, and Taira sells out for a rear-naked choke. Taira turns to the other side to further sneak it in, and Royval is able to stop these attempts for the time being. Royval sits back down with Taira holding an unorthodox grip around his shoulder, and he uses it to put Royval on his back and reassume mount. Royval spins around to escape the first bad position, and Taira deftly slides through to get his back and shut Royval down by getting in half guard. Royval attacks a leglock, forcing Taira to stand up and pull his leg away. Royval works back to his feet in the waning seconds, and one body kick is all he gets off before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira

Round 3
Fists are bumped to get going, and a more tentative Royval gets countered over the top with a left hand. Taira reaches him with another left hook over the top, and Royval slugs him in the chops with a right hand. A straight left from Royval finds its home on the jaw, and he lands another few punches and a knee when Taira shoots for a takedown. Royval defends the double with several elbows to the side of the head, and he stands Taira up with a sharp knee. Royval breaks out of the attempt and goes wild with a flurry of strikes, shaking Taira up briefly. Taira’s recoverability is excellent, as he does not back up and instead stays just out of range. Royval bears down on him with a long left and an uppercut, and his uppercut clips Taira again when Taira tries to strike back. Royval gets energized by landing flush, hurting Taira with a flurry of fists. Taira shoots desperately for a takedown when he gets hurt with a salvo from “Raw Dawg.” Taira’s takedown is used against him, as Royval throws him to the mat and works on him with hammerfists. Royval thwarts another attempt, and Taira is fading fast as the woodchipper in Royval is on him chewing him up with punches and knees. Taira goes after another takedown, and it is not effective as he ducks face-first into a clean knee. Taira drops to the mat, and Royval follows him and beats on him with hammerfists on either side of the head. Taira tries to move, and Royval circles around to take Taira’s back and get hooks in. Royval searches for an armbar, rolling to his bell to lock it down, and Taira miraculously fights his way out of the sub and turns Royval around to get his back. Taira fastens the body triangle and starts hunting for his own submission. A rear-naked choke from the Japanese youngster sneaks around the jaw of his foe, and Royval decides to punch instead of fighting the hands. Royval grits it out and survives to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval

Round 4
Royval is fired up after his corner very loudly and dramatically informs him that he needs to crush this kid. Taira is not about to go down lightly, and the two flyweights meet in the center of the cage and trade hands violently. When Taira gets stung, he shoots in for a takedown. Royval balances thanks in part to a fence grab, although Taira still wrests him to the mat. Taira gets his hooks in and locks down the body triangle, with Royval pulling off the fence to try to spin himself about. Taira hunts for a choke, and Royval fights the body lock and turns to his knees. Taira’s body lock remains firmly around the midsection even sitting upright, and Royval rolls but is still snared in the web. Taira softens him up from behind with punches as Royval keeps turning, and he lands an elbow as he moves from position to position. When absorbing one particularly fierce elbow, Royval turns to his stomach, and he uses two-on-one control to wriggle himself out. Taira’s savvy back control further nullifies “Raw Dawg,” and he lets Royval roll to his back to get the body triangle again. Royval fights it off on one side, but Taira fastens it on the other. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Royval sits up and is near to escape, but time expires before he can. It could be all tied up now.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira

Round 5
With five minutes left in the fight very likely even on the scorecards, Royval strikes first in the final round. Connecting with four or five early punches, Royval is forced to sprawl to stop a level change. Taira walks into a few punches after Royval stands up, and he reaches with a right but gets clubbed with an uppercut. Royval reaches out with a left hand, and he snipes Taira coming in with a few punches. Royval eats a pair of lefts to get driven back, and he slips in an uppercut. Taira swings a right hand into a takedown, and he puts Royval on his seat with three and a half minutes left in the round. Taira moves to north-south position with Royval pushing his heels off the fence to flip around. Taira nearly gets the back, but Royval reverses the position and pursues his own takedown to place Taira on his seat. Royval holds on from behind as Taira stands, and he elevates and slams the Japanese fighter down. Royval jumps on the back as Taira gets to his feet again, and slides off in a hurry. Taira breaks the grip and separates, and Royval walks him down and bloodies his foe’s nose. Taira loads up on power strikes, and Royval’s straight left remains a money punch. Royval seems to land cleanly whenever he wishes, and Taira dives after a desperate single but Royval stops it and knees his foe in the chest. Royval breaks free again and rails Taira with a step-in knee, and Taira knocks him back with a big right hand. Royval gets back in his face with a series of punches, and he gets pushed over when spinning back. Taira shoots for a double, and Royval jumps guard with a guillotine choke that he uses to roll into full mount. Royval sits up and lets Taira turn over to take his back, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke. Royval gets the body triangle at the same time, and he cranks on the neck. The neck crank does not get a tap, and tough as nails Taira survives to turn himself over. The final horn blares, and this back-and-forth battle comes to a close in an easy “Fight of the Night” candidate and one possibly worthy of “Fight of the Year” consideration. No matter who picks up the win, these two put on a show and stamp their places in the elite echelon of the 125-pound division.
Springing the upset, Royval showers his defeated opponent with compliments, while saying that he would be happy to do anything to further Taira’s career—a fighter that he confidently proclaims will be a champion one day. Royval states he alone deserves the next title shot at flyweight, due to wins over top-five talents Brandon Moreno, Kai Kara-France and now Taira. He asks to be backup for the Alexandre Pantoja-Kai Asakura championship bout, or offers to fight in hostile territory to beat either man in their home country after UFC 310. If he gets the next crack at gold, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)

The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Tatsuro Taira via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Angelo picks Brandon Royval, calling himself a Tatsuro Taira hater. He notes that Taira is undefeated but hasn't beaten top competition, and that Royval's pressure and experience will be too much. He mentions Royval's win over Brandon Moreno and his ability to land strikes even when taken down. Angelo bet half a unit on Royval at +170 and is also considering a plus 5.5 bet.

Bet half a unit at +170; considering plus 5.5 bet
"I think Brandon Royal wins this fight I bet on him plus 170 those odds were just too good to pass up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Big Brady picks Tatsuro Taira to win by decision. He notes that if it were a three-round fight, he'd be more confident, but the five rounds give him pause due to Royval's elite cardio and durability. However, Royval has terrible takedown defense (40%), and Taira's grappling control is elite. He compares it to Royval's fight with Pantoja, where Pantoja controlled him on the ground. Brady believes Taira can get takedowns at will and control rounds, though rounds 4-5 could get interesting. He expects Taira to win at least three rounds.

Taira by decision
"I'll go Tyra to win this fight and I'll take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2025 (fight day)
Tatsuro Taira

Cody believes Taira is a believer after his performance against Royval, showing improved striking, timing, physicality, and elite grappling. He notes Taira's ability to take down Royval six times and control him, despite Royval's scrambling and cardio. Cody sees Taira as more polished and refined than Park, with five-round experience and superior competition level. He expects Taira to roll through Park.

"I'm starting to become a Tyro believer and you know me, I've tried to fade this guy a few times."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Royval's defensive wrestling is nonexistent and that Taira's grappling is a huge advantage. He notes that Royval's recent striking approach is static and ineffective, and that Taira should be able to take him down and control the fight. Connor is confident Taira wins unless he fights poorly.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think of royville's fight with kykara france... If you're facing tatsuru taira you're not going to jump the ghillie and submit tatsuru taira."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Daniel acknowledges Taira's immense talent and undefeated record but questions if he's ready for a top-five test at age 24. He notes Royval's proven durability, pace, and experience against elite competition like Moreno and Pantoja. Daniel is tempted by the plus-190 odds on Royval and believes Taira may need to pay his dues first. He emphasizes that Royval gets better as fights progress and that Taira hasn't faced anyone with Royval's relentless pressure.

"I'm just not convinced he's that guy right now... I'm more tempted to take a small shot on Brandon Royval and see if he can set back the ultra talented Tatsuro Taira."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

The host looked for a reason to take Royval as a big underdog but couldn't due to Taira's control and grappling. Royval is more disciplined but will struggle when Taira crashes the pocket and wraps him up. The host is not super high on Taira's chalk and prefers the over 3.5 rounds, but expects Taira to control the majority of the fight via grappling and win on the scorecards.

over 3.5 rounds
"I actually like the over three and a half more than anything but I think we're going to see Taira controlling the majority of this matchup by getting it into the grappling realm"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2025 (fight day)
Tatsuro Taira

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Taira's striking improvement and elite grappling. He highlights Taira's ability to get to the back and control opponents, and his five-round experience against top competition. Paul thinks Taira wins more often than not even at a sizable favorite price.

"I expect him to roll through park."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval as an upset, citing his scrambling ability, pressure, and durability. He questions Taira's hype, noting close fights with Perez and Shevchenko, and believes Royval can make Taira break in a five-round fight. He expects Royval to win by late-round TKO, as Taira hasn't faced someone as lanky and rangy, and Royval has shown he can hang with top flyweights like Pantoja and Moreno.

late rounds TKO
"I am going to go Roy Val... I think he can make tayra break I think he can put pressure on him... I'm going to say Roy Val gets this one done by like late rounds TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Zane picks Taira because Royval's defensive wrestling is terrible and Taira is a good takedown artist with dangerous ground control. He notes that Royval's striking volume is often ineffective and that Taira can find takedowns consistently. Zane believes Royval's only path is if Taira fights terribly, but otherwise Taira should win.

Royval opened at +170, now +213; Taira opened at -194, now -248. Odds drifting Taira's way.
"I am going to be picking tatsura taira. I think he is going to have all kinds of ways of finding takedowns on royville and it's just really is a question of if he goes for them consistently and I …"
Decision (split) (48–47, 46–49, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 0 112 of 211 53% 119 of 219 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:54
Brandon Moreno 0 145 of 510 28% 177 of 556 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 0 15 of 23 65% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brandon Moreno 0 12 of 43 27% 12 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brandon Royval 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:37
Brandon Moreno 0 18 of 87 20% 22 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brandon Royval 0 17 of 31 54% 17 of 31 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:27
Brandon Moreno 0 25 of 79 31% 26 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Brandon Royval 0 29 of 58 50% 29 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brandon Moreno 0 49 of 161 30% 60 of 179 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:33
5 Brandon Royval 0 29 of 54 53% 36 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:50
Brandon Moreno 0 41 of 140 29% 57 of 162 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 112 of 211 53% 48 of 127 37 of 51 27 of 33 103 of 191 7 of 17 2 of 3
Brandon Moreno 145 of 510 28% 97 of 437 38 of 54 10 of 19 142 of 504 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 15 of 23 65% 6 of 12 5 of 5 4 of 6 14 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0
Brandon Moreno 12 of 43 27% 6 of 31 5 of 8 1 of 4 11 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Brandon Royval 22 of 45 48% 13 of 34 5 of 5 4 of 6 20 of 43 1 of 1 1 of 1
Brandon Moreno 18 of 87 20% 7 of 66 8 of 16 3 of 5 18 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Brandon Royval 17 of 31 54% 7 of 20 4 of 5 6 of 6 15 of 27 1 of 2 1 of 2
Brandon Moreno 25 of 79 31% 13 of 61 8 of 12 4 of 6 24 of 76 1 of 3 0 of 0
4 Brandon Royval 29 of 58 50% 7 of 27 13 of 20 9 of 11 28 of 54 1 of 4 0 of 0
Brandon Moreno 49 of 161 30% 37 of 147 11 of 11 1 of 3 48 of 159 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Brandon Royval 29 of 54 53% 15 of 34 10 of 16 4 of 4 26 of 46 3 of 8 0 of 0
Brandon Moreno 41 of 140 29% 34 of 132 6 of 7 1 of 1 41 of 140 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Angelo is very confident in Moreno, citing his pace, toughness, and improvement since their last fight. He believes Moreno is better everywhere and will eventually break Royval, likely in the fourth or fifth round. He notes Moreno already won this fight once and will do it again at home.

likely fourth or fifth round finish
"Moreno is a very confident pick here he has already won this fight I think he wins this fight again"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno to win by decision. He notes that Moreno has never been finished in 30 fights, which is crucial against a finisher like Royval. He believes Moreno has more paths to win, especially by taking the fight to the mat where Royval has poor takedown defense (40%). He thinks Moreno can control Royval on the ground and potentially submit him, but leans toward a decision. He questions Royval's ability to win a decision or finish Moreno.

Moreno wins by decision
"I like the minute winning ability especially on the ground for Moreno and I'll pick him to win this fight I'm torn between decision or submission um I don't know I think I'm I'm leaning more towards decision for Brandon …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Cody picks Moreno, citing Moreno's cast-iron chin, takedown ability, and the fact that Royval is coming in on short notice after a five-round war with Pantoja eight weeks ago. He notes Royval's takedown defense is a serious problem and that Moreno already beat him once. He acknowledges the line is justifiable and is not playing contrarian.

"Mareno is the favorite is he this big of a favorite it's justifiable and I'm not going to play contrarian I'll take the favorite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

The host expects Moreno to replicate his first fight strategy by using his wrestling advantage to control Royval on the ground. He notes Moreno's good submission defense against Royval's aggressive style. Even if the fight stays standing, Moreno is the more technical striker. He predicts Moreno will grind out a decision victory.

"I think that's going to come to fruition once again as Moreno grinds this fight out utilizing his wrestling advantage to get this Victory on the scorecards even if this fight ends up playing out in the Striking room I …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Moreno. He highlights Moreno's cast-iron durability as kryptonite to Royval's game, and notes that Moreno's ability to mix in takedowns will secure rounds in front of a hometown crowd. He also mentions Royval's short-notice turnaround and the altitude disadvantage, though Royval trains in Denver.

"I'll take the favorite yeah I mean the the Saving Grace as opposed four Ro Val is that he trains in Denver"
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandre Pantoja 0 95 of 156 60% 126 of 195 8 of 14 57% 1 0 15:51
Brandon Royval 0 111 of 204 54% 281 of 390 0 of 1 0% 0 2 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandre Pantoja 0 27 of 40 67% 29 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:50
Brandon Royval 0 13 of 30 43% 40 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Alexandre Pantoja 0 10 of 15 66% 24 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:44
Brandon Royval 0 12 of 16 75% 80 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexandre Pantoja 0 17 of 26 65% 23 of 38 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:13
Brandon Royval 0 24 of 46 52% 63 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:06
4 Alexandre Pantoja 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 3 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:21
Brandon Royval 0 7 of 14 50% 28 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:31
5 Alexandre Pantoja 0 41 of 74 55% 49 of 82 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:43
Brandon Royval 0 55 of 98 56% 70 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandre Pantoja 95 of 156 60% 49 of 101 22 of 30 24 of 25 74 of 130 5 of 6 16 of 20
Brandon Royval 111 of 204 54% 102 of 193 7 of 9 2 of 2 91 of 177 5 of 6 15 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandre Pantoja 27 of 40 67% 9 of 19 10 of 13 8 of 8 19 of 30 2 of 3 6 of 7
Brandon Royval 13 of 30 43% 11 of 28 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 1 4 of 4
2 Alexandre Pantoja 10 of 15 66% 5 of 8 4 of 6 1 of 1 6 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 4
Brandon Royval 12 of 16 75% 9 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 12 1 of 1 3 of 3
3 Alexandre Pantoja 17 of 26 65% 5 of 14 6 of 6 6 of 6 15 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
Brandon Royval 24 of 46 52% 21 of 43 2 of 2 1 of 1 20 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 2
4 Alexandre Pantoja 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brandon Royval 7 of 14 50% 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 12
5 Alexandre Pantoja 41 of 74 55% 30 of 59 2 of 5 9 of 10 34 of 65 0 of 0 7 of 9
Brandon Royval 55 of 98 56% 54 of 95 1 of 3 0 of 0 53 of 96 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

Angelo picks Pantoja to win by finish in the third or fourth round, citing Pantoja's grappling advantage and Royval's low takedown defense. He notes that Pantoja already won the rematch two years ago and expects a similar outcome. He has a 'good size bet' on Pantoja.

Good size bet on Pantoja; finish in round 3 or 4
"I see Pantoja winning this fight by finish third or fourth round... I do have a good size bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

Big Brady picks Pantoja to win by first-round submission, recalling their first fight where Pantoja was exhausted but capitalized on a Royval mistake to choke him out. He notes Royval's poor striking defense (50% striking defense) and tendency to make mistakes on the mat, giving up his back and position. Brady believes Pantoja's submission game is elite and that Royval cannot afford errors at this level. He expects an exciting banger but sees Pantoja finding a finish early.

"I like Pantoja here I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Cody picks Royval as an underdog, citing his chaotic style, improved striking, and ability to scramble back to his feet after takedowns. He notes that Royval trains at altitude in Denver and has solid cardio, while Pantoja's cardio is overblown but his body language looks tired. Cody acknowledges the risk: Royval has durability issues and was submitted by Pantoja before, but at +160 he sees value.

"I'm going to go with Roy Val Underdog pick here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Daniel Vreeland picks Brandon Royval as an upset, attributing Royval's loss in the first fight to a rushed return from injury. He believes Royval's striking has improved and that his scrambles will keep the fight on the feet. Vreeland notes Royval's recent wins over Matt Schnell and Kai Kara-France by submission show his dangerous ground game. He thinks Royval can hang with Pantoja on the feet and win the rematch.

"I'm gonna go upset here I'm gonna go raw dog"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

Jeff Fox picks Alexandre Pantoja, stating he is the better fighter overall and has already beaten Royval. He questions the quality of Royval's recent opponents, noting that Pantoja has faced tougher competition. Fox believes Pantoja will successfully defend his title for the first time.

"Pantoja is my pick here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Lucrative James picks Brandon Royval outright. He believes Royval was breaking Pantoja in their first fight before getting submitted, and he thinks Royval's pace is the highest at flyweight. He argues that Pantoja may have been breaking and that Royval's motivation is higher as the challenger. He acknowledges Pantoja's submission threat but feels the value is on Royval as an underdog.

"I'm actually picking Brandon Royval outright... I just don't think Pantoja is going to be able to keep up with him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

The host favors Pantoja due to his discipline, technique, and masterful Jiu-Jitsu, which he believes will be too much for Royval's chaotic style. He notes that in their first fight, Pantoja consistently secured Royval's back and eventually got a rear-naked choke. He also points out Royval's poor takedown defense and expects Pantoja to get the fight to the ground and find a submission. He acknowledges Royval's upset potential but trusts the more reliable fighter.

Pantoja by submission, under 2.5 rounds
"I think pantoja's discipline technique and just overall masterful approach to his Jiu-Jitsu is going to be too much to for Roy Val here and that will allow panta to get his hand raised"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

Paul picks Pantoja, arguing that Royval's level of competition is lower and that Pantoja has never been finished. He points to Pantoja's performance against Brandon Moreno where he landed 129 significant strikes, a knockdown, and six takedowns. Paul believes Pantoja's cardio issues are overblown and that Royval tends to fade in dogfights, while Pantoja is an absolute dog.

Pantoja by submission +155
"I think it's Pantoja by sub would be interesting"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

The Guru picks Pantoja over Royval, noting Pantoja's improved ground control and back-taking ability, as seen against Moreno and Perez. He acknowledges Royval's scrambling but believes Pantoja's chin is solid and Royval is hittable. He predicts Pantoja will knock down Royval and secure a rear-naked choke in round one.

Pantoja by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 1
"I'm going to say round one Pantoja knocks down Roy Val towards the three minute Mark and gets a rear naked choke towards the end of the round"
KO (knee and elbows) R1 2:09 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 1 13 of 22 59% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Matheus Nicolau 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 1 13 of 22 59% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Matheus Nicolau 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 13 of 22 59% 13 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 13
Matheus Nicolau 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 13 of 22 59% 13 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 13
Matheus Nicolau 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau, citing his technical striking and methodical grappling. He believes Nicolau's technical striking will overcome Royval's chaos, and that Royval won't be able to take Nicolau down, making it a kickboxing match where Nicolau shines. He notes Royval was dropped badly by Schnell. He has a half-unit moneyline bet on Nicolau at -155.

half unit moneyline bet at -155
"I think his technical striking should be able to get through the chaos that Brandon Roy Val creates"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Big Brady picks Brandon Royval to win by first-round knockout. He describes Royval as a wild, unique fighter who thrives in chaos, while Nicolau is calm and composed. He believes Royval's style will force a brawl, and notes Nicolau has been knocked out before. He expects fireworks and a finish.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Roy Val to knock out Mateus nickel out here I'll say he does it in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Cody thinks Nicolau is technically sound and should weather Royval's early chaos. He notes Royval is dangerous early but tends to fade and is injury-prone. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop as well.

Under 2.5 rounds (-120)
"I think eventually Mateus nicolao gets the job done here and under two and a half rounds is minus 120"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Nicolau's counter striking is excellently timed and that he has the wrestling to handle Royval's scrambles. He also notes that Nicolau is a solid positional grappler and can be the one with key switch-ups.

"I think more than most fighters that Rival tries to march down and overwhelm, he's going to find counters hard to come by here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Royval's chaos and output will overwhelm Nicolau, who tends to have close fights and low output. Royval's scrambling and submission threat create opportunities. Nicolau's discipline may crack under pressure. Royval can finish inside the distance, as his style leads to finishes. Under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.

Under 2.5 rounds; Royval wins inside the distance
"I'm gonna go with the raw dog here as the underdog I'm going to take him to win this fight inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Paul agrees, calling Royval 'frail' and noting his tendency to get finished. He thinks Nicolau's accurate counter-striking and durability will lead to a finish or clear decision. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I'm just uh locking in under two and a half at minus 110 right now"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, praising his technical, composed style and BJJ background. He believes Nicolau will read Royval's wild, tornado-like approach and make him pay, potentially by submission or KO. He notes Royval's size and unpredictability but thinks Nicolau's polish and 93% takedown defense will be decisive.

Nicolau wins by finish (submission or KO)
"give me Mathias nicolao to get the job done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Zane picks Nicolau because he is a cleaner fighter and a better counter puncher. He notes that Nicolau has the wrestling component to his counter game, which gives him an option to interrupt Royval's relentless pressure. He also mentions that Nicolau is a bigger striker with excellent timing and can handle Royval's grappling.

"But I just think Nicolau is a cleaner. He's, he's just a better fighter than Rival, I think."
WIN vs Matt Schnell
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:14 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:13
Matt Schnell 1 12 of 33 36% 15 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:13
Matt Schnell 1 12 of 33 36% 15 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 14 of 39 35% 9 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 1
Matt Schnell 12 of 33 36% 9 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 28 0 of 0 2 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 14 of 39 35% 9 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 1
Matt Schnell 12 of 33 36% 9 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 28 0 of 0 2 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brandon Royval vs. Matt Schnell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Royval (-240), Schnell (+195)

Round 1
The opener of the prelim card – which differs slightly from the early preliminaries even if they remain on the same network – is sure to be a wild one for as long as it lasts. All-action Royval (13-6, 3-2 UFC) ended the first two-fight skid of his career in January by claiming a decision over Rogerio Bontorin, while Schnell (15-5, 1 NC; 5-3, 1 NC UFC) will be returning to action for the first time in nearly a year since he also took on Bontorin. Of note, while Schnell did drop a decision to Bontorin that night, Bontorin tested positive for banned supplements and the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation overturned it to a no contest. Both looking to get the taste of Bontorin out of their mouths, so to speak, they touch gloves in front of referee Ryan Brueggeman to move along in their careers. Schnell starts off with a barrage of punches, and Royval greets him with punches and a head kick of his own. Royval steps in with a knee to back Schnell off, and Royval slings a few head kicks for good measure. Royval goes low and then high with kicks, and Schnell walks through them to launch a right hand. These two flyweights are swinging for the fences early, and both are connecting frequently. Schnell snaps the head back with a left hand, and Royval responds with a left of his own. Schnell bears down on him and drills Royval with a right hand, and Royval hits the ground and immediately goes fishing for a leglock. Royval rolls for a heel hook, and Schnell turns all his way around and through it to lower himself to the mat on top. Royval sets up an omoplata shoulder lock to force a sweep, and Schnell wrenches his arm free and snags hold of a guillotine choke. Royval rolls through it and looks for a brabo choke.
This does not land, so “Raw Dawg” turns it to a guillotine choke. As soon as he cinches it up, he pulls guard and locks a leg around Schnell’s waist. The grip from Royval is so crushingly tight that Schnell thinks about fighting out of it, and suddenly realizes he is in grave danger and taps out with both hands.
Brueggeman takes a moment to register the taps, and he jumps in to separate the fighters after their short but memorable thriller.

The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Matt Schnell R1 2:14 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Angelo picks Brandon Royval, citing his forward pressure and sneaky grappling as the difference. He notes that both fighters are willing to bang but Royval is a better pure grappler. He expects a potential fight of the night.

"roy val's forward pressure and sneaky grappling will be the difference here so roy val is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Big Brady picks Brandon Royval to win by first-round knockout. He believes this is a nightmare matchup for Schnell because Royval will force a brawl, and Schnell has a history of being knocked out (by Font, Sandoval, Pantoja). Schnell has changed his style to be more cautious, but Royval's pressure will drag him into a war. Royval has the striking advantage, durability, and dangerous ground game. Schnell is not a strong offensive wrestler, so he cannot exploit Royval's poor takedown defense. Brady expects Royval to finish Schnell in brutal fashion in the first round.

first round knockout
"I think royval runs through him I think roy val finishes matt schnell in the very first round if match nell's not gonna come out here and wrestle which I don't think he will I think he's in some serious …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Cody picks Brandon Royval, noting that Schnell's chin is suspect and Royval's unorthodox striking and grappling are at a higher level. He points out that Royval has wins over Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France, while Schnell has beaten lower-level opposition. Cody believes Royval can win standing or on the ground, and expects a stoppage. He is confident in Royval as one of his key plays.

"i think he's the rightful guy minus 240 don't mind it i'm gonna play him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval confidently, though he does not bet due to the high price. He likes Royval's pace, pressure, and opportunistic submissions. He notes Schnell is technically sound but lacks durability and takedown ability. He considers a KO prop for Royval at +460 but does not pull the trigger.

Daniel considers a Royval KO prop at +460 but does not bet. He passes on betting altogether.
"My pick is Royvall. I'm passing all together."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Brandon Royval

The host picks Royval to win but prefers betting the under 2.5 rounds at -145. He highlights Royval's chaotic style that overwhelms opponents, using the Kai Kara-France fight as an example. He notes Schnell is technically better but will struggle with Royval's pace and unpredictability. He acknowledges Royval leaves himself vulnerable to submissions, but expects the fight to end inside the distance, likely with Royval winning. He is concerned about Royval's price at -235 and prefers the under.

under 2.5 rounds -145; fight doesn't go to decision -170
"the pick is still gonna be roy val it's just too difficult for me to trust him at minus 235 minus 240 considering how he fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Paul picks Brandon Royval and is also interested in the under 2.5 rounds. He notes that Schnell has chin issues and Royval's volume and pace could clip him. Paul thinks Royval can get a finish, but also acknowledges that Royval's own pace could lead to him wilting. He likes the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop and plans to parlay it with the Cerrone-Lauzon under.

under 2.5 rounds at -145; fight doesn't go to decision at -170
"i'm picking roy val as well to get the job done um matt schnell i i don't think i've ever picked him though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval, citing his wildness and finishing ability. He notes Royval has good submissions and KO power, and believes he will bait Schnell into a scrap and catch him. He criticizes Schnell's chin and predictable style. He predicts a first-round TKO, possibly via spinning elbow.

"i'm gonna trust in brandon royval's wildness and his ko ability in the flyweight division to get this one done over match nell"
Kai Kara-France - Fight History
Submission R3 1:55 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandre Pantoja 0 42 of 76 55% 70 of 107 3 of 6 50% 2 0 7:20
Kai Kara-France 0 38 of 67 56% 57 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandre Pantoja 0 7 of 13 53% 29 of 38 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:45
Kai Kara-France 0 8 of 13 61% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexandre Pantoja 0 29 of 51 56% 34 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:04
Kai Kara-France 0 22 of 42 52% 22 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Alexandre Pantoja 0 6 of 12 50% 7 of 13 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:31
Kai Kara-France 0 8 of 12 66% 21 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandre Pantoja 42 of 76 55% 28 of 61 10 of 10 4 of 5 40 of 74 0 of 0 2 of 2
Kai Kara-France 38 of 67 56% 26 of 53 8 of 10 4 of 4 35 of 64 1 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandre Pantoja 7 of 13 53% 4 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
Kai Kara-France 8 of 13 61% 8 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Alexandre Pantoja 29 of 51 56% 19 of 40 7 of 7 3 of 4 29 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kai Kara-France 22 of 42 52% 11 of 30 7 of 8 4 of 4 22 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexandre Pantoja 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kai Kara-France 8 of 12 66% 7 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

Angelo picks Alexandre Pantoja because he believes Pantoja's grappling and bullying style will be too much for Kai Kara-France, who is smaller and primarily a boxer. He notes that Pantoja is durable, gritty, and will drag Kara-France to the ground, and that the -260 odds are a gift. He dismisses their first fight on TUF as irrelevant and thinks Pantoja's path to victory is clear.

Angelo says the -260 odds are a bit of a gift.
"Alexandre Pantoja is the pick. I think these minus 260 odds are honestly a bit of a gift."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

Big Brady is very confident in Pantoja, noting that Kara-France has a tendency to give up his back, as seen in fights against Albazi, Askarov, and Royval. He believes Pantoja's relentless takedown pressure and elite grappling will lead to a submission once he takes Kara-France's back. Brady also notes Kara-France's power but doubts he can knock out Pantoja, who has never been knocked out. He picks Pantoja by third-round submission.

Pantoja wins by third round submission
"I got to go Panttoia here. I think he's going to be relentless. Bring that pace, bring that pressure, get a takedown, get to the back, and sink in that rear naked choke."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

Connor believes Pantoja is the clear champion in the division and that Kara-France lacks the structure to win rounds at an elite level. He notes that Kara-France struggles when he can't get a knockout, and Pantoja is extremely durable and determined. He also highlights Pantoja's wrestling and grappling as key advantages, especially given Kara-France's tendency to give up his back in scrambles. Connor expects Pantoja to win, possibly by finish.

"I think Alejandro Pantoja is the only guy in this division right now who looks like a, um, a champion."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

The host sees this as a great matchup for Pantoja to showcase his grappling dominance, predicting he will find a dominant position and submission within two and a half rounds, forcing the tap from Kara-France.

submission, within two and a half rounds
"I think within two and a half rounds he should be able to find that dominant position to find that submission and force the tap from Car France."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

The host picks Alexandre Pantoja, arguing that Kara-France's finishing potential is reduced when he has to defend takedowns. He notes that Pantoja's stand-up has improved and that his pressure and kicks will be key. He expects a close competitive decision, 48-47 or 49-46 for Pantoja.

decision
"I'm going with Alejandre Pantoia and I'm going to tell you why. Nothing to do with their first fight..."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

Zane agrees that Pantoja is the pick. He notes that Kara-France's game is built around moments of shocking offense, but when he can't produce those, he loses rounds. Pantoja is durable and will walk into exchanges, and his wrestling will be a problem for Kara-France. Zane also points out that Kara-France struggled against Brandon Moreno, who used range to neutralize him, and Pantoja is even more aggressive. He expects Pantoja to win, possibly by finish.

"Pantoja is one of the most durable fighters in the entire sport."
WIN vs Steve Erceg
TKO (punches) R1 4:04 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kai Kara-France 2 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Steve Erceg 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kai Kara-France 2 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Steve Erceg 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kai Kara-France 18 of 51 35% 11 of 35 5 of 13 2 of 3 15 of 44 0 of 0 3 of 7
Steve Erceg 9 of 29 31% 8 of 26 0 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kai Kara-France 18 of 51 35% 11 of 35 5 of 13 2 of 3 15 of 44 0 of 0 3 of 7
Steve Erceg 9 of 29 31% 8 of 26 0 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Steve Erceg vs. Kai Kara-France
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Erceg (-166), Kara-France (+140)

Round 1
The lone all-Oceania battle comes in the co-main event, with New Zealand’s Kara-France (24-11, 1 NC; 7-4 UFC) aiming to snap his first losing streak in nearly a decade at the expense of former undisputed title challenger and Western Australia native Erceg (12-2, 3-1 UFC). Even with both men coming up short in past championship opportunities, a win tonight and maybe one more may propel the victor into contention once more. Referee Rich Mitchell will be the first to know who that is, and he sits back as the fighters come together to clap hands. Erceg shifts directly to the center of the cage, and they both are prepared for the other’s leg kick as they anticipatorily lift their lead legs when squaring up. Kara-France lunges forward after 45 seconds elapse with three looping hooks, and Erceg dances away from them all and pokes out a jab. Erceg jabs again, prompting Kara-France to do the same to the midsection. Erceg ducks just in time to dodge a looping right hand, and Kara-France is out of the way before he can get countered. Erceg jabs his way forward, and Kara-France sticks him to the ribs. Kara-France kicks the front leg and attacks the body, and Erceg kicks him back. Erceg keeps Kara-France at the end his punches, and Kara-France still manages to reach him with winging strikes. Erceg rolls with them just in time, and his own jab reddens the nose of the City Kickboxing product. Erceg puts an uppercut on the guard, bouncing Kara-France back to the fence. Kara-France unleashes a big right hand, and Erceg fires back fearlessly. “Don’t Blink” thumps the front leg and aims a jab to the body, and he strafes to the side but is still met with a jab. Kara-France winds up with a massive left hand, sending Erceg flying. The back of Erceg’s head clatters off the mat, possibly reactivating him after a flash knockout. Kara-France aims and misses two standing-to-ground punches before Erceg dives after his leg, and Erceg uses the close range to explode back to his feet. Kara-France is on him loaded for bear, firing off a huge right hand that forces Erceg to retreat as fast as he can. Kara-France connects with a massive right hook on the temple, and Erceg shifts to the side to dodge. Unfortunately for “Astro Boy,” he circles right into the power right hand of the Kiwi. Kara-France detonates a bomb of a right hand on Erceg’s dome, sending him down in a heap. Two punctuating punches to the side finish the job as Mitchell races in to rescue Erceg from further harm. Kara-France has done it, springing the sizeable upset and becoming the first fighter to knock out the durable youngster. Erceg does not protest the stoppage when he gets back to his feet while in Mitchell’s protective embrace, instead showing disappointment in himself for getting caught like this. Meanwhile, Kara-France jumps to the top of the fence and celebrates his handiwork with the elated audience.

The Official Result
Kai Kara-France def. Steve Erceg R1 4:04 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Angelo picks Steve Erceg because of his size advantage and grappling, believing he can use his size to lean on Kai Kara-France and get the fight to the ground. He notes that Kara-France has great takedown defense but is tiny, and Erceg is big for the division. He considers it a close fight and suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Kara-France might be good.

Suggests Kai Kara-France +3.5 might be a good bet
"Steve EG is going to be the pick here because I think the size is the difference."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by third-round submission. He favors Erceg due to durability (never knocked out or submitted) and grappling upside (BJJ black belt). He notes Kara-France has been finished six times and is hittable. He believes Erceg can hurt Kara-France on the feet and then submit him. He acknowledges the striking could be competitive but thinks Erceg has more paths to victory, including the younger age and grappling advantage.

submission in round 3
"I'm going Steve ERS to win this fight by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Cody sees Erceg as the bigger, more durable fighter with better takedown defense and a higher ceiling after nearly beating Pantoja. He notes Kara-France is on a two-fight losing streak, has been knocked down multiple times, and lacks power against top competition. Cody also mentions Erceg's hometown advantage in Perth.

"I am hammering ersc"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

Daniel Vreeland picks Kai Kara-France via split decision, arguing that Erceg is overrated off his title shot and that Kara-France has the defensive grappling and striking to make it close. He notes that Kara-France has been training hard and won the bleep test at his gym, and that the line movement toward Kara-France suggests sharp action. Vreeland acknowledges the risk of Kara-France's layoff and concussion narrative but believes the fight is a dog-or-pass situation.

"I'm going k K France via Split Decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Vreeland picks Erceg, calling him the better all-around fighter. He notes Kara-France is good at stuffing takedowns but Erceg's striking power (brutal KO) will make him hesitant. He also highlights Erceg's ground game shown against Pantoja, suggesting a possible submission. He envisions a 'tag and bag' scenario similar to Kara-France's loss to Brandon Royval.

"I'm going IG I uh I I think he's just the better allaround fighter in this fight"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Fox agrees with Erceg for the same reasons: more well-rounded and dangerous everywhere. He emphasizes Erceg's ability to hurt Kara-France on the feet and potentially submit him. He notes Kara-France has been submitted before after being stunned.

"yeah as am I ersc for all the same reasons more well-rounded and um yeah dangers everywhere basically"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

The host is confident in Erceg, citing his technical striking, height advantage, and defensive grappling. He expects Erceg to land straight shots and counter Kara-France's power shots. He also notes Erceg's submission threat. He believes Erceg is the more complete fighter and will win by decision or submission.

Erceg by decision or submission
"give me ERS ERS by decision maybe IG by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Erceg's performance against Pantoja as a revelation that he belongs at the top. He notes Kara-France's takedowns won't be effective because Erceg gets back up easily, and that Erceg's size and durability will be key. Paul also points out the travel advantage for Erceg fighting in Perth.

"I like her seg as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg over Kai Kara-France. He praises Erceg's activity, technical striking, and game planning, noting he is taller and good at picking shots against shorter opponents. He criticizes Kara-France for being one-dimensional, always stepping in with the same overhand. He acknowledges Kara-France's takedown defense but believes Erceg will win a decision, possibly dropping Kara-France. He mentions Kara-France's long layoffs and losses.

Decision 30-27
"I'm going with Steve EG sorry Steve EG is better than him more active than him um more technical than him"
LOSS vs Amir Albazi
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amir Albazi 0 99 of 283 34% 133 of 323 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:58
Kai Kara-France 0 43 of 145 29% 64 of 173 1 of 9 11% 1 0 6:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amir Albazi 0 13 of 40 32% 20 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kai Kara-France 0 6 of 23 26% 12 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:01
2 Amir Albazi 0 16 of 55 29% 17 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kai Kara-France 0 11 of 37 29% 12 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
3 Amir Albazi 0 9 of 19 47% 30 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Kai Kara-France 0 3 of 9 33% 15 of 26 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:36
4 Amir Albazi 0 27 of 65 41% 29 of 67 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Kai Kara-France 0 5 of 29 17% 7 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:23
5 Amir Albazi 0 34 of 104 32% 37 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kai Kara-France 0 18 of 47 38% 18 of 47 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amir Albazi 99 of 283 34% 57 of 224 20 of 30 22 of 29 90 of 267 1 of 2 8 of 14
Kai Kara-France 43 of 145 29% 31 of 125 6 of 13 6 of 7 39 of 135 1 of 5 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amir Albazi 13 of 40 32% 7 of 32 1 of 2 5 of 6 13 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kai Kara-France 6 of 23 26% 2 of 18 2 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Amir Albazi 16 of 55 29% 10 of 43 2 of 5 4 of 7 16 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kai Kara-France 11 of 37 29% 8 of 32 2 of 3 1 of 2 11 of 35 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Amir Albazi 9 of 19 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 14
Kai Kara-France 3 of 9 33% 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 5
4 Amir Albazi 27 of 65 41% 12 of 46 7 of 10 8 of 9 26 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kai Kara-France 5 of 29 17% 2 of 22 2 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Amir Albazi 34 of 104 32% 20 of 86 10 of 13 4 of 5 34 of 104 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kai Kara-France 18 of 47 38% 16 of 44 0 of 1 2 of 2 17 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

Angelo has a slight lean to Kara-France due to his takedown defense (86%) and UFC experience. He thinks Albazi is unproven against top competition. However, he acknowledges Kara-France may be overrated and could get overconfident. He is not betting this fight.

"incredibly ridiculously slight lean to the kaikar front side because of the takedown defense because of the UFC level experience"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

Cody agrees with Paul, stating it's hard to back Albazi because he hasn't faced elite competition. He highlights Kara-France's performance against Moreno, where he caused problems early. Cody notes the small cage could help Albazi but believes Kara-France's footwork and speed are clear advantages. He concludes that in a pick 'em fight, Kara-France is the value side.

"it's really really hard to back all bazzi in this spot to be perfectly honest like from my perspective just because we haven't seen it against Elite level competition"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

Connor picks Kai Kara-France, emphasizing that Kara-France is the best counter-puncher Albazi has faced and that Albazi's pressure style may hit its ceiling. He notes that if Kara-France pressures, Albazi's game dissolves, as seen against Torres. Connor also highlights that Kara-France has improved his ability to push a pace and has better defensive wrestling, though he acknowledges Albazi's grappling danger if Kara-France makes mistakes.

Odds: dead even at -105 each. Connor mentions the line is even and understands it due to Kara-France's inconsistency and finishability.
"If Khykar France gets pressed forward, then from what I've seen of Al-Bazi on his back foot, I have to take Khykar France."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Daniel argues that while Kai Kara-France has fought better competition, he has lost to all those top guys, whereas Albazi has handled everyone put in front of him. He believes Albazi's grappling upside and serviceable striking will be enough, and that Kara-France tends to fade in later rounds when pressured. He sees this as a chance for Albazi to rise to the occasion and win his first UFC main event.

"I'm picking Amir al-bazi to come out here and win his first UFC Main Event Steve"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Jacob picks Albazi, believing Kara-France will get overconfident in his striking and get caught. He thinks Albazi's jab and power will wear on Kara-France, leading to a takedown or knockout. Jacob notes Kara-France has a history of getting hit when he's too aggressive. He is confident Albazi wins.

"I just feel like he's gonna have too much success early get over aggressive albazi's got a great jab he's gonna start touching him and then he's gonna lay on some power"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

Kara-France has improved defensive grappling and superior striking. Albazi will struggle to implement his grapple-heavy approach. Kara-France will stuff takedowns, land damaging blows, and win a decision. The fight likely goes over 3.5 rounds.

over 3.5 rounds
"I fully expect this fight to go over the three and a half round mark which is where the total is set and I see this fight Going the Distance I like High car France"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

Paul picks Kai Kara-France based on his elite level competition and proven ability against top flyweights like Moreno and Garbrandt. He notes Albazi's wins are against lower-tier opponents and his last fight showed low output and takedown struggles. Paul sees Kara-France as the more reliable pick with better experience and accuracy, while Albazi is more of a hope. He mentions the small cage might help Albazi but believes Kara-France's footwork and speed will be decisive.

"I would say for the price point though you got to bet on what you know and kaikon France has got a lot more of what you know he's fought first of all a much more Elite level of competition"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France, citing his great takedown defense, survivability, and patience on the feet. He notes that Kara-France doesn't get hit clean often and has a good chin. He believes Albazi will struggle to get takedowns or finishes, and that Kara-France's experience in five-round fights (interim title fight with Moreno) will be an advantage. He predicts Kara-France will take over as the fight goes on and possibly get a fourth-round TKO.

Kara-France by TKO in round 4
"I'm still gonna go with kaikara France great takedown defense great survivability and dangerous situations good striking very patient on the feet"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

Zane picks Kai Kara-France because he is the more proven fighter and has shown improved defensive wrestling and pace-pushing. He questions how Albazi will handle being pressured, as his last time on the back foot against Jose Torres his game dissolved. Zane also notes that Kara-France is harder to wrestle now and that Albazi's takedowns, while good, are simpler to stop compared to chain wrestlers like Askarov.

Odds: dead even at -105 each. Zane mentions the line is even and understands it due to Kara-France's inconsistency and finishability.
"I just feel like Cara France is unquestionably the more proven fighter. And I think stylistically, again, like he looks like he might be sort of the ceiling for Al-Bazi style of striking."
LOSS vs Brandon Moreno
TKO (body kick and punches) R3 4:34 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Moreno 1 58 of 151 38% 59 of 153 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:45
Kai Kara-France 0 53 of 110 48% 66 of 123 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Moreno 0 7 of 26 26% 7 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Kai Kara-France 0 10 of 23 43% 10 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brandon Moreno 0 16 of 49 32% 16 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Kai Kara-France 0 15 of 36 41% 23 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brandon Moreno 1 35 of 76 46% 36 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Kai Kara-France 0 28 of 51 54% 33 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Moreno 58 of 151 38% 43 of 133 12 of 15 3 of 3 47 of 132 0 of 3 11 of 16
Kai Kara-France 53 of 110 48% 24 of 71 3 of 4 26 of 35 48 of 104 0 of 0 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Moreno 7 of 26 26% 5 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kai Kara-France 10 of 23 43% 3 of 11 1 of 2 6 of 10 10 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brandon Moreno 16 of 49 32% 10 of 40 4 of 7 2 of 2 16 of 46 0 of 3 0 of 0
Kai Kara-France 15 of 36 41% 6 of 23 0 of 0 9 of 13 15 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Brandon Moreno 35 of 76 46% 28 of 69 6 of 6 1 of 1 24 of 60 0 of 0 11 of 16
Kai Kara-France 28 of 51 54% 15 of 37 2 of 2 11 of 12 23 of 45 0 of 0 5 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

Big Brady picks Kai Kara-France to win by decision as a dog. He thinks the line is too wide and favors Kara-France's striking volume, accuracy, and takedown defense. He notes Moreno has been dropped before and Kara-France has power. He expects a close fight that could go either way but leans toward the underdog.

"i'm going to take the dog here in kai kar france to edge out a very close and competitive decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Cody picks Moreno, citing his durability, fantastic cardio, and proven five-round ability. He notes that Kai Kara-France relies on power and early success, but Moreno can take his best shots and keep coming. He expects Moreno's volume, wrestling, and championship-round experience to be key advantages. He also mentions that Moreno has a grappling advantage and that Kai's takedown defense is solid but Moreno can mix in wrestling. He thinks the fight will be competitive early but Moreno will take over.

"i think it's moreno's ability to keep coming forward to take his best shots and to roll the volume the output the ability to maybe mix in some wrestling if need be... that would have to be my logical pick"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Daniel leans Moreno because he believes Moreno's Mexican heart and toughness will carry him down the stretch, especially in deep waters. He notes that Moreno already beat Kara-France once via decision and that Kara-France has historically faded when fights get tough. He acknowledges Kara-France's improvements, especially his takedown defense against Askar Askarov, and his one-punch knockout power. However, he questions Moreno's motivation after losing the belt and changing camps. He sees value on Kara-France at +170 but ultimately picks Moreno to become interim champion.

Mentions that Kara-France at +170 has value; says he leans Moreno but wouldn't count out Kara-France
"I still do lean Moreno here to win this fight because I've seen them fight before and I didn't think it was so close."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Brandon Moreno

Preet made Moreno his biggest play of the night with five units at -187, believing Moreno is on another level. He argues the first fight was not close after round one, with Moreno beating Kara-France to the punch and flexing on him. He expects Moreno to edge a five-round kickboxing match, with potential grappling success. He dismisses Kara-France's takedown defense improvements as irrelevant.

"i went as deep as making moreno my biggest play of the night here i got five units on him at -187"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Paul also picks Moreno, agreeing that it's a bad matchup for Kai Kara-France. He notes that Kai relies on power and early success, but Moreno is incredibly durable with fantastic cardio. He thinks Moreno has an advantage on the mat and that Kai's takedown defense is solid but Moreno can get it there. He mentions that the -210 price is not great but the fight is likely to be competitive and go five rounds. He suggests live betting after the first round if Kai has early success.

"i think it's a bad matchup for kai kara france who relies a lot on his power... brandon moreno incredibly durable fantastic cardio i mean five round fighter proven multiple multiple times"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Brandon Moreno

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Moreno by 48-47 decision. He expects Kara-France to win the first two rounds with big shots and leg kicks, but Moreno will take over in rounds three through five with his jab, combinations, and pressure. Moreno's durability and volume will be key as Kara-France fades.

48-47 decision
"4847 brandon moreno i think he's going to win the last three rounds"
WIN vs Askar Askarov
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kai Kara-France 0 27 of 60 45% 37 of 76 2 of 14 14% 2 0 5:14
Askar Askarov 0 51 of 130 39% 64 of 145 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kai Kara-France 0 3 of 4 75% 13 of 20 1 of 4 25% 2 0 3:09
Askar Askarov 0 4 of 10 40% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kai Kara-France 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:58
Askar Askarov 0 24 of 65 36% 26 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kai Kara-France 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:07
Askar Askarov 0 23 of 55 41% 24 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kai Kara-France 27 of 60 45% 25 of 55 1 of 4 1 of 1 24 of 57 3 of 3 0 of 0
Askar Askarov 51 of 130 39% 26 of 96 10 of 18 15 of 16 46 of 125 3 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kai Kara-France 3 of 4 75% 3 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0
Askar Askarov 4 of 10 40% 1 of 5 0 of 2 3 of 3 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kai Kara-France 12 of 28 42% 11 of 25 0 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Askar Askarov 24 of 65 36% 16 of 55 5 of 7 3 of 3 21 of 62 2 of 2 1 of 1
3 Kai Kara-France 12 of 28 42% 11 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Askar Askarov 23 of 55 41% 9 of 36 5 of 9 9 of 10 21 of 53 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Askar Askarov

Angelo picks Askar Askarov, calling him a beast with Dagestani wrestling and submissions. He thinks Askarov's relentless grappling and willingness to strike will be too much for Kai Kara-France. He predicts a close but clear decision, likely 29-28. He also mentions a prop bet on Kara-France plus 3.5 points.

plus three and a half bet on kai car france ... likely get that at like plus 120
"i see azkarov winning a close but clear decision likely 29 28"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Askar Askarov

Big Brady picks Askar Askarov to grind out a decision win. He highlights Askarov's relentless wrestling and grappling, noting that he took down Joseph Benavidez five times and controlled him, and also took down Brandon Moreno and Pantoja. He acknowledges that Kai Kara-France has power and knocked out Cody Garbrandt, but believes Askarov will mix in takedowns and not give France many opportunities to strike. He expects a close decision.

Askar Askarov wins by decision
"I think ask her ask rob's relentless i don't think he's going to get france many opportunities to knock him out i think he's going to take down france... give me uh ask her ask grav to grind this one …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Askar Askarov

Cody picks Askarov but is wary of the line. He notes Askarov's close fights against top competition and Kara-France's recent KO wins over faded opponents. He thinks Askarov's wrestling and durability will be factors, but Kara-France's power is a threat. He expects a competitive fight with Askarov winning.

"i think they raise ascroft's hand so that's the side i'm going to be on"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Askar Askarov

Daniel Levi picks Askar Askarov, citing his elite wrestling and control. He notes Askarov's wins over top competition (Moreno, Pantoja, Benavidez) and his ability to grind out decisions. He acknowledges Kara-France has KO power and could land a lucky shot, but believes Askarov's grappling will be the difference. He thinks the line at -350 is fair but not a betting opportunity.

Askarov by decision, Kara-France by KO is the only path
"I think the minutes and the rounds are going to be won by oscar askrov"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Askar Askarov

Paul picks Askarov but is concerned about the price. He notes Askarov's fights are often competitive and he's been in close decisions. He thinks Askarov's wrestling and striking mix will be key, but Kara-France has power and could test his chin. He expects Askarov to win but not easily.

"i'm leaning towards oscar of getting the job done as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France by KO over Askar Askarov, praising Kara-France's takedown defense and jiu-jitsu defense. He notes that Askarov has struggled to ground elite grapplers like Moreno and Pantoja, and believes Kara-France's momentum and striking will be the difference. The Guru predicts Askarov will leave his chin open after failed takedowns, leading to a KO win for Kara-France as an underdog.

ko win
"i'm going to go with kakarot france"
TKO (punches) R1 3:21 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kai Kara-France 2 23 of 41 56% 23 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Cody Garbrandt 0 9 of 17 52% 9 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kai Kara-France 2 23 of 41 56% 23 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Cody Garbrandt 0 9 of 17 52% 9 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kai Kara-France 23 of 41 56% 18 of 32 1 of 4 4 of 5 19 of 37 0 of 0 4 of 4
Cody Garbrandt 9 of 17 52% 4 of 10 0 of 1 5 of 6 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kai Kara-France 23 of 41 56% 18 of 32 1 of 4 4 of 5 19 of 37 0 of 0 4 of 4
Cody Garbrandt 9 of 17 52% 4 of 10 0 of 1 5 of 6 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cody Garbrandt

Big Brady picks Cody Garbrandt by knockout, but with very low confidence. He notes that Garbrandt has fought better competition and is the harder hitter, but there are many red flags: Garbrandt is moving down in weight, has durability concerns, and has been knocked out before. Kara-France has good takedown defense and volume, but his chin is questionable. Brady cannot bet this fight due to the uncertainty.

"give me cody garba i'm taking him to win by knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

Daniel Levi picks Kai Kara-France for the upset, expressing concerns about Cody Garbrandt's drop to flyweight. He references historical examples like TJ Dillashaw and Figueiredo struggling with the weight cut, and worries about Garbrandt's durability losing 10 pounds. Levi acknowledges Garbrandt's superior competition but believes the speed and output at flyweight will favor Kara-France. He notes Kara-France's one-punch knockout power and training at a great camp. Levi is skeptical about Garbrandt's desperation move to flyweight.

"give me kai khara france for the upset here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Cody Garbrandt

Garbrandt is the much better technical striker and should be able to counter Kara-France's blitzes. However, his durability is a concern, especially at a new weight class. If he stays disciplined and uses footwork, he can win a decision. The weight cut and chin are question marks, so this is a watch-and-see fight.

"i'm going cody garbrandt and i'm gonna take him to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France to win by first-round KO, calling it an upset. He believes Garbrandt's weight cut to flyweight will be detrimental, and his defensive flaws will be exposed. He notes Kara-France's reach advantage and power, predicting he will catch Garbrandt early.

first-round KO upset
"i'm going with kai kara france over cody garbrandt garbrandt's going to be big for the division he's going to drain himself down he's already a chinny person"
KO (punches) R1 4:55 · UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kai Kara-France 0 6 of 17 35% 27 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:15
Rogério Bontorin 1 13 of 22 59% 21 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kai Kara-France 0 6 of 17 35% 27 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:15
Rogério Bontorin 1 13 of 22 59% 21 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kai Kara-France 6 of 17 35% 5 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Rogério Bontorin 13 of 22 59% 8 of 17 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kai Kara-France 6 of 17 35% 5 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Rogério Bontorin 13 of 22 59% 8 of 17 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

Big Brady picks Kai Kara-France, citing his striking advantage and ability to scramble if taken down. He notes Bontorin's striking is underwhelming and that Kara-France's 90% takedown defense is backed by good scrambling. He predicts a decision win but mentions he would bet Kara-France if he gets plus money.

"i'm gonna take france here um the money is coming in on bontor and i do expect it to keep coming in"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Rogério Bontorin

Daniel picks Rogério Bontorin to win a decision, citing his toughness, wrestling, and ability to mix in takedowns. He dismisses Bontorin's loss to Ray Borg due to weight miss and elevation, and believes Bontorin is the better grappler and will break Kara-France down the stretch.

"i'm going to go with rogeria banzarina to win a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

Kara-France has speed and better stand-up, with decent takedown defense. Bontorin slows down in later rounds. The host thinks Kara-France will win by decision, but is not highly confident due to Kara-France's past losses to chaotic fighters.

"i'll go with car car france i think he wins this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France to win by first-round TKO. He highlights Kara-France's 90% takedown defense and reach advantage, and believes Bontorin will get frustrated and rush in, getting caught. He notes Bontorin slows down and has been cut before.

"i'm picking kakara france i'm going with another ckb member here i think they'll keep the torch burning"
LOSS vs Brandon Royval
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 0:48 · UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Sep 27, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 1 22 of 38 57% 22 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:31
Kai Kara-France 2 39 of 71 54% 51 of 85 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 1 13 of 28 46% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:24
Kai Kara-France 2 31 of 56 55% 43 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
2 Brandon Royval 0 9 of 10 90% 9 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Kai Kara-France 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 22 of 38 57% 12 of 28 1 of 1 9 of 9 21 of 35 1 of 3 0 of 0
Kai Kara-France 39 of 71 54% 27 of 56 7 of 9 5 of 6 34 of 64 4 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 13 of 28 46% 6 of 21 1 of 1 6 of 6 12 of 25 1 of 3 0 of 0
Kai Kara-France 31 of 56 55% 23 of 46 5 of 6 3 of 4 26 of 49 4 of 6 1 of 1
2 Brandon Royval 9 of 10 90% 6 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 3 9 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kai Kara-France 8 of 15 53% 4 of 10 2 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Big Brady picks the underdog Royval, impressed by his ground game and finishing ability. He thinks Royval will get the fight to the mat at some point and have a big advantage there. He also notes Royval's striking is decent and he has a reach advantage.

Underdog pick
"give me the underdog here with brandon roy val i think he's the more dangerous fighter"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval as a dog, calling it a dog-or-pass situation. He believes Kai Kara-France is overrated, with questionable wins and a tendency to duck his head before exchanges, which Royval can exploit with flying knees. He praises Royval's heart, submission ability, and pressure, though he notes Royval's takedown defense is poor.

"i think there's a dog or pass situation and i'm gonna go out on a limb and actually take the dog here to upset kaika france"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Brandon Royval

The host picks Brandon Royval as a live underdog, comparing him to Tony Ferguson for his unorthodox pressure and scrambling ability. He believes Royval's chaos and jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Kai Kara-France, who he feels is overrated due to his City Kickboxing affiliation. He predicts a second or third-round submission.

"I truly think that roy vale is highly underrated in the spot... i'm going to take him to one by second or third round submission."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France, citing his great grappling defense, improvement, and experience against tough competition. He thinks Kara-France will chop at the legs, work the body, and win a unanimous decision. He notes Royval's win over Tim Elliott was good but Kara-France is a different level.

Win by unanimous decision
"i'm gonna go with claire cara france winning himself a unanimous decision chopping at the legs working to the inside landing good shots to the body"
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Big Brady picks the underdog Royval, impressed by his ground game and finishing ability. He thinks Royval will get the fight to the mat at some point and have a big advantage there. He also notes Royval's striking is decent and he has a reach advantage.

Underdog pick
"give me the underdog here with brandon roy val i think he's the more dangerous fighter"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval as a dog, calling it a dog-or-pass situation. He believes Kai Kara-France is overrated, with questionable wins and a tendency to duck his head before exchanges, which Royval can exploit with flying knees. He praises Royval's heart, submission ability, and pressure, though he notes Royval's takedown defense is poor.

"i think there's a dog or pass situation and i'm gonna go out on a limb and actually take the dog here to upset kaika france"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Brandon Royval

The host picks Brandon Royval as a live underdog, comparing him to Tony Ferguson for his unorthodox pressure and scrambling ability. He believes Royval's chaos and jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Kai Kara-France, who he feels is overrated due to his City Kickboxing affiliation. He predicts a second or third-round submission.

"I truly think that roy vale is highly underrated in the spot... i'm going to take him to one by second or third round submission."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Kai Kara-France

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France, citing his great grappling defense, improvement, and experience against tough competition. He thinks Kara-France will chop at the legs, work the body, and win a unanimous decision. He notes Royval's win over Tim Elliott was good but Kara-France is a different level.

Win by unanimous decision
"i'm gonna go with claire cara france winning himself a unanimous decision chopping at the legs working to the inside landing good shots to the body"