vs
-210 +190
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021 · Women’s Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 1"
Reach 62"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 5' 4"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jéssica Andrade
6.37 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
5.58 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
2.1 TD Avg
54.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Cynthia Calvillo
4.41 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
4.12 SApM
64.0% Str. Def.
1.8 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
77.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Jéssica Andrade
Moneyline
FanDuel -210
KO/TKO
DraftKings +225
Submission
FanDuel +1200
Decision
BetMGM +180
Cynthia Calvillo
Moneyline
BetWay +190
KO/TKO
BetWay +1600
Submission
DraftKings +900
Decision
BetMGM +450
Jéssica Andrade - Fight History
LOSS vs Loopy Godinez
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 90 of 287 31% 97 of 297 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Loopy Godinez 0 107 of 213 50% 119 of 226 1 of 14 7% 0 0 1:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 18 of 83 21% 18 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Loopy Godinez 0 40 of 71 56% 41 of 72 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jéssica Andrade 0 15 of 63 23% 22 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Loopy Godinez 0 31 of 50 62% 40 of 59 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:31
3 Jéssica Andrade 0 57 of 141 40% 57 of 142 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Loopy Godinez 0 36 of 92 39% 38 of 95 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 90 of 287 31% 58 of 242 21 of 31 11 of 14 87 of 279 3 of 8 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 107 of 213 50% 91 of 195 12 of 14 4 of 4 94 of 195 11 of 16 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 18 of 83 21% 13 of 75 2 of 3 3 of 5 17 of 82 1 of 1 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 40 of 71 56% 31 of 62 6 of 6 3 of 3 39 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jéssica Andrade 15 of 63 23% 11 of 55 0 of 3 4 of 5 14 of 60 1 of 3 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 31 of 50 62% 26 of 45 4 of 4 1 of 1 23 of 40 6 of 8 2 of 2
3 Jéssica Andrade 57 of 141 40% 34 of 112 19 of 25 4 of 4 56 of 137 1 of 4 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 36 of 92 39% 34 of 88 2 of 4 0 of 0 32 of 85 4 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Angelo believes Godinez has a giant grappling advantage and is the better fighter technically, but her fight IQ is questionable. He assumes she will make the right decisions and take Pepto before the fight. He thinks Andrade is a brute force brawler with limited skills, so Godinez should win if she doesn't do dumb things.

"Lepita has a giant grappling advantage and as long as she's not going strike for strike, power for power with Jessage, she should absolutely win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by second-round submission. He notes Andrade has been inconsistent and looks awful on the ground recently, with poor takedown defense. He thinks Godinez's path to victory is to mix in takedowns and grapple, as Andrade has been submitted many times. He worries about Godinez's fight IQ but trusts her to wrestle here. He mentions Godinez has a couple of submissions in the UFC and is working on her grappling.

Godinez by submission, round 2
"I'm going to take Lupita and I'm going to actually take her to win this fight by submission. We'll say second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Loopy Godinez

The host expresses disappointment in Godinez's development but thinks she can handle Andrade's aggressive striking. He predicts Godinez will land enough takedowns in the first two rounds to grind out a decision, surviving the third round.

"I think she'll be able to get off on enough takedowns in the first two rounds to grind this fight out and survive that third round to beat Andraj on the scorecards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The Guru picks Jéssica Andrade to win by TKO in round two. He believes Andrade will be too overwhelming with her punches for Loopy Godinez. The Guru notes that Godinez is easily hittable and has had close fights with lower-level competition. He doesn't see Godinez finishing Andrade or taking her down and submitting her. Despite Andrade's recent losses, the Guru thinks she is a step above Godinez's level.

TKO round two; Andrade wins by TKO
"I'm going to go with Jessica Andraj getting this one done by TKO. I'm going to say Jessica Andraj TKO round two."
Submission R1 2:40 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 11 of 18 61% 27 of 37 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 11 of 18 61% 27 of 37 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 4 of 8 50% 0 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jasmine Jasudavicius 11 of 18 61% 9 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 4 of 8 50% 0 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jasmine Jasudavicius 11 of 18 61% 9 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jessica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jasudavicius (-298), Andrade (+240)

Round 1
Andrade (26-13, 17-11 UFC), the winningest female fighter in the company, would like nothing more than to add one more to her ledger. Standing in her way will be significant betting favorite and sentimental local favorite Jasudavicius (13-3, 7-2 UFC), who rides the longest win streak (four) of her career. Referee Jason Herzog clocks the flyweights in as they get down to business, starting off with a glove touch. Andrade takes the center of the Octagon, while Jasudavicius looks for a jab that is out of range early. Andrade rushes out with a right hand and then hops back, and she leans in with kicks on the inside and outside of the lead leg. Jasudavicius kicks her back once, and she tags the Brazilian with a one-two. Andrade smiles at her. Andrade tosses out a right hand and a low kick, and her foe catches her with a long right hand. When Andrade tries to strike back, Jasudavicius lifts her in the air and slams her down hard. Jasudavicius starts beating on the former strawweight champ, landing punches and taking her back. Andrade looks to crawl back up, and Jasudavicius is a 125-pound weight on her back dragging her down. Jasudavicius gets one hook in and starts fishing for a rear-naked choke. When there is no submission, Jasudavicius smacks her on both sides of the head.
Jasudavicius flattens Andrade out, and she wraps up a rear-naked choke that is tight as a drum. Andrade posts off and tries to grit it out, but there is nothing she can do at this point in that position. With her other hand, “Bate Estaca” taps out
, and the roof on the building practically blows off. The Canadian releases the grip and rushes to her corner to celebrate, who award her with her Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt as a prize for the career-best triumph. It was smooth sailing for the Canadian, who barely got touched by one of the most dangerous women to ever grace the cage.

The Official Result
Jasmine Jasudavicius def. Jessica Andrade R1 2:40 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Angelo is confident in Jasmine Jasudavicius, calling it a tailor-made fight for her. He notes Jasmine is a wrestler with great hips and cardio, while Andrade is a bully without great takedown defense. He expresses minor concern about Jasmine's win streak and whether she's truly top-tier, but ultimately picks her. He mentions possibly parlaying her with Mike Malott.

Considering parlay with Mike Malott
"This should be Jasmine all day. This is a tailor made fight for her. A smaller girl who doesn't have great takedown defense. Jasmine should be able to come forward and grind."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Big Brady is confident in Jasudavicius, citing her size, strength, and ground game. He notes Andrade has poor takedown defense and looks like a white belt off her back. He predicts Jasudavicius will dominate on the ground, eventually securing a submission in the second round, possibly a front choke or crucifix TKO.

Jasudavicius wins by submission in round 2
"I'll say second round submission for Jasmine. I think she's going to pound away at Andraj and eventually snatch at the neck."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

The host views this as a perfect stylistic matchup for the Canadian Jasudavicius, expecting her to avoid Andrade's power striking and use her size and reach advantage to take the fight to the ground. He predicts she will land big shots from top position and get a TKO victory.

Wins by TKO
"I believe this is a perfect stylistic matchup for the Canadian as I expect her to really stay away from the power striking of Andraj eventually work to get this fight to the ground."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

The MMA Guru picks Jasudavicius, noting her recent dominance and improvement. He thinks Andrade loses presence at flyweight and can be overwhelmed by a scrappy, larger opponent. He expects Jasudavicius to mix striking and grappling, eventually securing takedowns and control, winning by decision.

decision
"I'm going to go with Jasmine Jasuda Vicious. She's been very very good recently in her career. She's actually been quite dominant recently in her career as well."
LOSS vs Natália Silva
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 0 50 of 140 35% 62 of 153 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:11
Jéssica Andrade 0 117 of 208 56% 119 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 0 24 of 56 42% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Jéssica Andrade 0 33 of 74 44% 33 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Natália Silva 0 11 of 37 29% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
Jéssica Andrade 0 37 of 69 53% 37 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
3 Natália Silva 0 15 of 47 31% 21 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:12
Jéssica Andrade 0 47 of 65 72% 49 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 50 of 140 35% 33 of 114 13 of 20 4 of 6 48 of 136 2 of 4 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 117 of 208 56% 67 of 151 38 of 45 12 of 12 106 of 197 9 of 9 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 24 of 56 42% 16 of 46 7 of 9 1 of 1 23 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 33 of 74 44% 14 of 53 12 of 14 7 of 7 32 of 73 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Natália Silva 11 of 37 29% 9 of 31 1 of 4 1 of 2 10 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 37 of 69 53% 20 of 47 15 of 20 2 of 2 32 of 64 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Natália Silva 15 of 47 31% 8 of 37 5 of 7 2 of 3 15 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 47 of 65 72% 33 of 51 11 of 11 3 of 3 42 of 60 3 of 3 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo picks Natália Silva because she is very well-rounded, technical, and has power that lasts into the third round. He believes she is the better fighter and as long as she doesn't let Andrade bully her, she should win. He notes that Silva has beaten prospects and veterans alike.

"Natalya Silva should win this fight she is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He is high on Silva, noting her impressive performances and striking. He acknowledges Andrade is a tough test and has revived her career, but believes Silva is the much better striker and may even drop Andrade. Brady thinks the odds are a bit disrespectful to Andrade but still favors Silva.

"I like Silva here to win this fight I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Cody believes Silva's size, speed, and counter-punching will be too much for Andrade, who struggles at 125 lbs against longer fighters. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal issues but respects her toughness. He thinks Silva can win by decision or knockout, but does not like the -300 price. He picks Silva but is not betting the moneyline.

"I feel like Natalia Silva strikes her 2928 natala Silva could knock her out in theory as well"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Daniel is high on Natália Silva, calling her one of the best prospects in women's MMA. He praises her movement, takedown defense, athleticism, and the fact that she paid her dues on the regional scene. He thinks Andrade's charging-forward style is a bad matchup against Silva's speed and accuracy. While he respects Andrade's evolution, he believes Silva is catching her at a great time and picks her to win.

"I think that stylistically speaking charging forward against Natalia with her movement with her accuracy with her speed sounds like a bad idea man... I'm picking her to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Silva is a technical striker with excellent lateral movement and accuracy. Andrade is a power puncher who struggles with fighters who stick and move. Silva can keep the fight at range and potentially land a knockout. The pick is Silva by decision, with a sprinkle on Silva by KO if odds are favorable.

Silva by KO at +400 or better (sprinkle)
"my official prediction will be Silva by decision but I might sprinkle a little bit on that Silva KO prop if it's anything better than plus 400."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Paul sees Silva as faster, bigger, and more technical, with a counter-striking style that can neutralize Andrade's blitzes. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal distractions (divorce, manager issues) but acknowledges her toughness. He believes Silva can win by decision or even knockout, but is wary of the -300 price. He leans Silva but does not love the moneyline.

"I feel like Natalia Silva wins it's the CF do model of the nature right women's MMA you want me to bet minus 300 against a former Champion the money line I really don't like"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Jéssica Andrade. He praises Silva's range control and ability to fight on the back foot. He notes Andrade has been outstruck by lesser fighters like Erin Blanchfield and struggles at flyweight. He highlights Silva's 11-fight win streak and her dominant UFC wins over Viviane Araujo, Andrea Lee, and others. He believes Silva is young (27) and still improving.

"I'm going to go with Natalia Silva... she's really good on the back foot... I reckon she'll win the fight"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 89 of 180 49% 124 of 220 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:53
Marina Rodriguez 0 82 of 228 35% 94 of 241 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 14 of 23 60% 49 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Marina Rodriguez 0 16 of 36 44% 27 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jéssica Andrade 0 42 of 86 48% 42 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Marina Rodriguez 0 35 of 107 32% 35 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jéssica Andrade 0 33 of 71 46% 33 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Marina Rodriguez 0 31 of 85 36% 32 of 86 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 89 of 180 49% 35 of 110 14 of 18 40 of 52 79 of 165 7 of 11 3 of 4
Marina Rodriguez 82 of 228 35% 70 of 207 9 of 17 3 of 4 77 of 220 5 of 6 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 14 of 23 60% 2 of 7 1 of 2 11 of 14 11 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 4
Marina Rodriguez 16 of 36 44% 9 of 28 4 of 5 3 of 3 16 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jéssica Andrade 42 of 86 48% 21 of 59 8 of 11 13 of 16 35 of 75 7 of 11 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 35 of 107 32% 34 of 104 1 of 3 0 of 0 33 of 104 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Jéssica Andrade 33 of 71 46% 12 of 44 5 of 5 16 of 22 33 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 31 of 85 36% 27 of 75 4 of 9 0 of 1 28 of 81 3 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez as the better technical fighter who can keep Andrade at range with her boxing and length. He notes Andrade's bullying style can be effective but Rodriguez should piece her up if she avoids clinch exchanges. He calls the fight dead even odds-wise and says no bets are safe.

"I am going to go Marina Rodriguez here she's just the better fighter and she's going to keep Jessica at the end of her strikes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody is torn but leans Rodriguez. He notes Andrade's inconsistency due to personal issues (divorce) and her tendency to not wrestle. Rodriguez has a clear path: counter punching. Cody points out that Andrade runs forward aggressively, which could run into Rodriguez's right hand. He also mentions Rodriguez's takedown defense is decent (66%) and she has the skills to survive if taken down. Cody thinks this is the best women's underdog on the card and picks Rodriguez to spring the upset.

"Marina seems like the best women's fighter on the card in terms of springing the upset by just catching a draw with that counter right hand so I'm going to go with Reena Rodriguez."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Connor picks Rodriguez, agreeing that Andrade's clinch deficiencies will be exploited. He notes that Rodriguez is a great clinch fighter and Andrade has poor posture and gets hit with knees. Connor also points out that Rodriguez is durable and does not slow down, while Andrade's confidence is fragile. He sees Rodriguez winning by controlling the clinch and landing strikes.

Odds: Andrade opened -112, now -135; Rodriguez opened -112, now +122. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I actually, I actually feel reasonably confident in Rodriguez here. I mean, I think Jessica looked against all odds and expectations. She looked like she recaptured her confidence against Mackenzie Dern."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Daniel Vreeland picks Jéssica Andrade, citing her power, physicality, and grappling advantage. He believes Andrade can land takedowns and control Rodriguez on the ground, and that Rodriguez lacks the power to deter her. Vreeland acknowledges Rodriguez's striking but trusts Andrade's durability and aggression.

"I got Andrade"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He discusses the title implications, saying the winner will be in line for a title shot. He notes that Andrade always walks forward and the fight is guaranteed to be good, but does not pick a winner.

"whoever wins between Jessica Andrade and Marina Rodriguez are either going to fight for the title next or more than likely be in a number one contenders spot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Andrade should drag the fight to the ground and land ground and pound from top position. She also has power on the feet. Rodriguez has reach and height but will struggle to keep Andrade off her. Andrade wins on the scorecards.

decision
"I think we see Andra win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees, noting that Andrade doesn't wrestle enough and Rodriguez has a striking advantage. He points out that Andrade's recent wins over Mackenzie Dern and Lauren Murphy were impressive, but she has also looked terrible against Tatiana Suarez and Erin Blanchfield. Paul thinks Rodriguez's counter right hand is a real threat and that Andrade's aggressive style plays into it. He mentions that if you're looking for a dog with a clear path, Rodriguez is it.

"I wanted to disagree with you but I'm going to side with you cuz all I do is pick woman's under dos one of them's going to hit."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by TKO, criticizing Jéssica Andrade for making Erin Blanchfield look competent. He believes Rodriguez will be patient, outpoint Andrade on the outside, and land knees and elbows in the clinch. He predicts Andrade will rush in and walk into strikes.

"I'm going with Marina Rodriguez by TKO because there is no way in hell I'm picking a girl to win a fight that just made me believe that Erin blanchfield has ever thrown a punch before in her life."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez, citing her clinch game and size advantage. He notes that Andrade is terrible in the clinch despite her strength, and Rodriguez is a powerful clinch fighter. Zane argues that Andrade's confidence is unreliable and that Rodriguez's durability and pressure will wear her down. He also mentions that Andrade's recent win over Mackenzie Dern may have been a confidence boost, but Rodriguez is a tougher matchup.

Odds: Andrade opened -112, now -135; Rodriguez opened -112, now +122. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I'm going to go with you and pick, uh, pick Rodriguez here. I just, I do think that without the clinch to fall into, it's a really bad matchup for András."
TKO (punches) R2 3:15 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 4 53 of 107 49% 53 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Mackenzie Dern 0 49 of 114 42% 50 of 115 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 1 27 of 50 54% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Mackenzie Dern 0 24 of 57 42% 25 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jéssica Andrade 3 26 of 57 45% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Mackenzie Dern 0 25 of 57 43% 25 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 53 of 107 49% 27 of 76 7 of 9 19 of 22 43 of 90 6 of 12 4 of 5
Mackenzie Dern 49 of 114 42% 38 of 100 6 of 9 5 of 5 47 of 109 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 27 of 50 54% 10 of 29 5 of 7 12 of 14 18 of 37 5 of 8 4 of 5
Mackenzie Dern 24 of 57 42% 15 of 46 4 of 6 5 of 5 23 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jéssica Andrade 26 of 57 45% 17 of 47 2 of 2 7 of 8 25 of 53 1 of 4 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 25 of 57 43% 23 of 54 2 of 3 0 of 0 24 of 54 1 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Angelo picks Dern, citing her improved striking and elite BJJ. He notes Andrade's takedown defense is poor and Dern can pull guard or climb for submissions. He already bet a full unit on Dern at -177 and is confident she gets it done.

bet 1 unit at -177
"I'm going to trust McKenzie dur here I think she gets it done I threw a full unit on her at Min - 177."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern to win by first-round submission. He believes Dern is improving her wrestling and striking, while Andrade is on a decline and doesn't seem to care anymore. He notes Andrade has been easily submitted recently by top grapplers, and Dern is the best grappler in the division. Brady thinks one takedown from Dern will end the fight quickly.

Dern by submission in the first round
"Give me Dern, I think she does care and I think her ground game's really good and I'll say she subs her in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Cody picks Dern, noting Andrade's recent decline and disinterest in fights. He highlights Dern's improvements in striking and wrestling under Henry Cejudo, and her durability. He believes Dern can win on the feet or on the ground, and that Andrade's best path (wrestling) is nullified by Dern's BJJ.

"I think D is the rightful fave minus 190 don't love it but um but yeah that's my pick"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

James picks Mackenzie Dern to win, though he is annoyed at the -200 price. He thinks Andrade has stylistic advantages on the feet with more power, but Dern has durability, pace, and grappling to offset that. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to dominate and finish, and Andrade has been finished in her last three losses. He suggests playing Dern inside the distance rather than moneyline.

Inside the distance recommended; notes Andrade rarely loses by decision.
"I think that McKenzie Dern is going to win the fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Andrade's power will be the difference. Dern has never been hit by someone with Andrade's power and will struggle to close distance. Andrade will stuff takedowns and make Dern pay every time she crashes the pocket. Expects Andrade to land big strikes and potentially find a knockout victory in the first or second round. The line at +165 is a value due to recency bias from Dern's win over Hill.

knockout victory in round 1 or 2
"I'm actually going to be taking Andra for the upset in this spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Paul agrees, emphasizing Andrade's regression and Dern's upward trajectory. He notes Andrade has looked flat and disinterested, while Dern is coming into her prime with improved cardio and focus. He thinks Dern wins wherever the fight goes, and that Andrade's wrestling won't be enough.

"I actually agree... D is coming into her own and becoming a legitimate contender"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

The MMA Guru picks Mackenzie Dern, believing Andrade is on a losing streak and has lost confidence. He notes Dern's improved grappling and boxing, citing her dominant win over Angela Hill. He predicts Dern will submit Andrade in round two, as Andrade has been vulnerable on her back recently.

submission in round 2
"I'm going to go with McKenzie D getting a submission here over Jessica Andra in round two"
LOSS vs Tatiana Suarez
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 1:31 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 11 of 29 37% 13 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Jéssica Andrade 0 23 of 49 46% 25 of 51 3 of 3 100% 1 0 2:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 11 of 27 40% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jéssica Andrade 0 19 of 43 44% 20 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:38
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Jéssica Andrade 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 11 of 29 37% 2 of 14 5 of 8 4 of 7 8 of 23 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 23 of 49 46% 3 of 20 17 of 26 3 of 3 13 of 36 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 11 of 27 40% 2 of 12 5 of 8 4 of 7 8 of 21 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 19 of 43 44% 3 of 18 14 of 23 2 of 2 9 of 30 10 of 13 0 of 0
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 4 of 6 66% 0 of 2 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Angelo is extremely confident in Tatiana Suarez, calling her a lock and saying she should be -1000. He highlights Suarez's high-level wrestling, averaging over six takedowns per 15 minutes, and her submission win over Montana De la Rosa after a four-year layoff. He notes that Andrade relies on bullying and power, but Suarez won't be bullied and will get takedowns. Angelo suggests parlaying Suarez before the line moves and expects a submission win, possibly under 2.5 rounds.

Parlay Suarez, under 2.5 rounds, win by submission
"Tatiana Suarez is -450 she should be minus one thousand I'm telling you parlay Tatiana Suarez now before the line takes off"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Big Brady is a big Andrade fan but thinks this is a terrible matchup for her. He notes Andrade's defensive grappling is poor, as seen against Valentina and Blanchfield, and suspects she may be focused on OnlyFans and just showing up for a paycheck. He believes Suarez will take her down easily and dominate on the mat, finishing her in the first round. He is surprised money is coming in on Andrade.

Suarez wins in round 1; Suarez by submission or TKO
"I think sephores goes out there and dominates andrage and finishes her in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Cody is confident Suarez will get takedowns with ease and likely secure a submission, referencing Andrade's poor guard retention and tendency to quit when taken down. He notes Suarez's full camp and Andrade's short notice, but acknowledges Andrade's danger on the feet. He likes Suarez by submission at +125.

Suarez by submission +125
"I see a plus 125 out there I haven't bet it yet but like that's how I see this fight playing out"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Daniel Levi picks Tatiana Suarez, emphasizing her wrestling and physicality as a nightmare matchup for Andrade. He notes Andrade's durability has waned and that she gives up her back to get up, which Suarez can exploit. Levi expects Suarez to get a takedown that Andrade can't escape, leading to a finish via ground and pound or rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Andrade's power and offensive submissions but believes Suarez's relentless wrestling will be decisive.

Mentions that props like submission, TKO, inside the distance will be popular, but does not specify a bet. Also notes sharp action on Suarez.
"I do think that Tatiana is gonna get that final takedown where she where Jessica can't get up and whether it's ground and pound whether it's a the back and a rear naked chill."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

James is uncertain due to Suarez's long layoff and potential athletic decline seen in her last fight. He acknowledges Suarez should dominate if she's anywhere near her old self, but there are red flags. He picks Suarez to win but wouldn't bet her at -400; he'd bet inside the distance for either fighter.

inside the distance for either fighter
"I'm definitely picking Suarez and I'm gonna say she gets a submission in the first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Suarez is the far superior wrestler and should get the fight to the ground easily. From top position, it's a matter of time before she finds a finish, either by submission or TKO. I like the inside the distance prop around -150, or the under 2.5 rounds if skeptical. If Suarez can't get the takedown, she might look lost on the feet, but I think the fight ends under 2.5 rounds with Suarez winning by the second round.

inside the distance -150, under 2.5 rounds
"I don't mind targeting the inside the distance around -150 or if you're just skeptical about the fight overall I don't mind the under two and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Paul agrees with the submission pick, citing Andrade's history of tapping quickly when taken down (e.g., Blanchfield fight). He notes Suarez's wrestling is elite but has ring rust and a poor striking performance against Montana De la Rosa. However, he believes Suarez will smother Andrade and get a rear-naked choke late in the second round.

Suarez by submission (rear-naked choke)
"I'm actually going to agree with you I think the rear naked choke opens itself up sometime late in the second round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The host is very high on Tatiana Suarez, calling her the future champion. He believes her wrestling and grappling will dominate Andrade, similar to the Blanchfield fight. He predicts a submission win before the end of the second round. He notes Andrade is dangerous with power but Suarez is naturally larger and has a huge grappling advantage. He sees Suarez as a parlay piece but warns about women's MMA variance.

submission win before end of round 2; line opened -476, now -400; parlay piece
"I think that she'll probably end up submitting her uh similarly to the blanchfield fight before the end of the second round"
LOSS vs Yan Xiaonan
KO (punches) R1 2:20 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yan Xiaonan 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 1 26 of 36 72% 26 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yan Xiaonan 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 1 26 of 36 72% 26 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yan Xiaonan 12 of 32 37% 5 of 23 3 of 3 4 of 6 12 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 26 of 36 72% 12 of 22 5 of 5 9 of 9 23 of 33 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yan Xiaonan 12 of 32 37% 5 of 23 3 of 3 4 of 6 12 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 26 of 36 72% 12 of 22 5 of 5 9 of 9 23 of 33 0 of 0 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Angelo picks Jéssica Andrade but with very low confidence, admitting he has flip-flopped multiple times. He thinks Andrade's raw power and bullying style can close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she can pound away. However, he acknowledges Yan Xiaonan is the better striker with clean technique and composure. Angelo notes that if Andrade can't bully her way in, she'll be a step behind on the feet. He emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick.

"right now the pick is going to be Jessica because she is the more dangerous fighter but frankly I might flip that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady picks Andrade, citing her wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes Yan Xiaonan was dominated by Carla Esparza, who has no finishing ability, so Andrade's takedowns and top control will be overwhelming. He believes Andrade is super strong for the division, has great cardio, and will take Yan down at will. He predicts a second-round TKO via ground and pound.

Second round TKO prediction
"I like andrage to get takedowns here and get on top and finish yanja Nan in very brutal fashion so I like andrage second round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Cody thinks Andrade should win on paper with her strength, power, and experience, but is concerned about her recent performance against Erin Blanchfield where she looked burnt out and quit. He notes she's been fighting for a decade and may be mentally done. He leans toward Andrade but says he doesn't trust her at -200 and might take Yan as an underdog if he needs one later.

"I'm kind of leaning towards she could pull it out but I don't know if I got the colonies just to straight up at that Underdog"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Connor also picks Andrade, agreeing that Yan's volume won't be enough against Andrade's power and durability. He notes that Andrade is a rare power puncher in the division and that Yan's awkward kicks and jabs won't deter her. Connor mentions that Yan's best wins are against opponents who couldn't match her output, but Andrade is different.

"I got to take Andraj here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The host picks Jéssica Andrade, believing her strength, top pressure, and ability to drag the fight to the ground will be decisive. He acknowledges Yan Xiaonan's striking and submission defense but thinks Andrade's power and grappling will overwhelm Yan. He expects Andrade to get a ground and pound finish.

Andrade by ground and pound
"I think that the strength and the top pressure that Jessica Rings will be difficult for Yan to deal with that will allow Jessica to get into a dominant position start raining down big blows maybe even open up a …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Paul got burned betting on Andrade against Blanchfield and is wary of the -200 price. He notes that Andrade's takedowns could be effective, as MacKenzie Dern had success taking Yan down. He thinks Andrade gets back on track but the price is too high after her last performance, so he picks her but won't bet.

"andrage is going to be the pick for me but no bet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The Guru picks Andrade, believing she won't be outgrappled by Yan and that her pressure and body shots will be key. He notes Yan has been outgrappled before (by Carla Esparza) and that Andrade's size at strawweight is dangerous. He predicts a TKO in the second round via body shots and punches against the cage.

TKO in round 2
"I'm gonna have to go with Jessica and Raj here ... I think she gets this one done by TKO in the second round to body shots and punches Against the Cage"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Zane picks Andrade, noting that Yan's success comes against opponents who can't make her pay for her volume, but Andrade has the physicality and power to do so. He points out that Andrade doesn't gas out and that Yan's game plan of stuffing takedowns and outworking won't work against Andrade. Zane compares Yan's style to Joanna Jedrzejczyk but says Yan is not Joanna.

"So I got to take Andraj here."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:37 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 53 of 143 37% 56 of 147 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 51 of 120 42% 53 of 124 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 40 of 106 37% 43 of 110 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 44 of 100 44% 46 of 104 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 13 of 37 35% 13 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 7 of 20 35% 7 of 20 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 53 of 143 37% 28 of 107 5 of 16 20 of 20 50 of 137 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 51 of 120 42% 38 of 105 2 of 4 11 of 11 50 of 117 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 40 of 106 37% 22 of 80 4 of 12 14 of 14 37 of 100 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 44 of 100 44% 32 of 86 2 of 4 10 of 10 43 of 97 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 13 of 37 35% 6 of 27 1 of 4 6 of 6 13 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 7 of 20 35% 6 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Angelo is very confident in Andrade, even on short notice. He highlights Andrade's technical improvement in her last fight against Lauren Murphy, where she showed precision rather than just bullying. He believes Andrade's BJJ black belt and experience against top competition will neutralize Blanchfield's grappling. Angelo notes the line moved from -190 to -170 and he placed a two-unit bet at -150. He dismisses comparisons to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting Shevchenko uses judo while Blanchfield uses wrestling, which Andrade can defend.

Two-unit moneyline bet at -150. Also mentions Andrade by decision at -120 but prefers moneyline.
"I think Jessica andrage absolutely gets this done I'm confident in Jessica andrage to get this done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady thinks this is too soon for Blanchfield, who has only beaten lower-level competition like Molly McCann. He notes that Andrade only gets dominated by elite grapplers like Valentina Shevchenko, and Blanchfield is not on that level yet. He worries about Blanchfield's takedown success, as she was 0-for-4 against JJ Aldrich. He predicts Andrade will win by knockout, likely in the second round, as Blanchfield has nothing for her on the feet.

Andrade by KO/TKO, round 2
"I'm gonna take Jessica andrage by my knockout... I think she gets it done the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Cody initially liked Blanchfield at plus money due to Andrade taking the fight on short notice and Blanchfield's suffocating style, but as the line tightened he shifted to Andrade. He notes Andrade is a proven commodity with better striking and five-round experience, and that she wouldn't take a fight she couldn't win. However, he acknowledges Blanchfield's grappling threat and says he wants to watch weigh-ins before betting.

Line movement noted: Blanchfield opened plus money, now +120 to +125. Cody considered early plus money on Blanchfield but missed it.
"I think you take a back class and you take Jessica and Josh prove a commodity much better Striker has fought these high level five rounds before... current line I take it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Andrade is a huge step up for Blanchfield. He notes that Blanchfield's striking is very undeveloped, especially her kicks, and that Andrade's power will be a shock. He also points out that Blanchfield struggled with Aldrich's counter striking and maneuvering, and Andrade is a much more physical and powerful version of that. Connor sees the fight as too much too soon for Blanchfield.

"I'm gonna go ahead and assume that I can't expect an X factor due to the short notice... Blanchfield is a good finisher... but it's just not complete enough for me to pick her here."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Jacob is a self-proclaimed Blanchfield hater and picks Andrade confidently. He criticizes Blanchfield's lack of a plan B when things go wrong, citing her fight against JJ Aldrich where she was dominated until a Hail Mary guillotine. Jacob believes Andrade is a better striker and will stuff takedowns, leading to Blanchfield being embarrassed. He compares it to Whittaker vs Vettori and Emmett vs Rodriguez, where one-dimensional wrestlers were exposed. He is not worried about short notice because Andrade wouldn't take the fight if she wasn't ready.

"Jessica Andre is a better Striker she Stuffs the takedowns and Aaron blanchfield is absolutely in embarrassed in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Andrade's relentless pressure, power, and strength will be too much for Blanchfield, who struggled with takedowns against JJ Aldrich and may not be ready for this step up. Andrade's durability and takedown defense should keep her safe, and she will eventually land a knockout, likely in the third or fourth round.

Andrade wins by KO in round 3 or 4
"I felt pretty damn confident on the Jessica Andrade side... we'll see Andrade knock her out."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Paul likes Andrade, citing her recent performance against Lauren Murphy where she looked great and nearly finished her. He questions the comparison to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting that outside of Shevchenko, no one has easily taken Andrade down. He struggles to get behind Blanchfield at the current price, calling it a big step up in competition. He says if the line keeps moving toward Blanchfield, he'll be forced to jump on Andrade.

Line movement: Blanchfield opened -175/-180, now -135. Paul says he'll likely add Andrade to his card after weigh-ins.
"I really struggled to get to Aaron blancheville particularly at this price... this line keeps moving I'm gonna be forced to jump in on Jessica on John."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade, stating she hits different and is a step above other flyweights except Shevchenko. He believes Andrade's power will break Blanchfield's nose early, forcing panic takedowns. He recalls Blanchfield's fight with JJ Aldridge where she struggled before getting a guillotine, and thinks Andrade will be too much. He notes Andrade is a 2-to-1 favorite and calls those odds good, predicting a first-round TKO.

TKO first round, odds: -200 (2-to-1 favorite)
"I think andraj is like going to shatter that beak of a nose on blanchfield's face"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Zane picks Andrade because Blanchfield's striking is still raw and relies on pressure and volume, but she struggles against skilled or physically imposing opponents. Andrade is both, with power that Blanchfield has never faced. Blanchfield's takedown entries are not clean enough to consistently get Andrade down, and Andrade's speed and power will be overwhelming. Zane notes that Blanchfield is a good prospect but not complete enough to win this fight.

Andrade opened at -190, jumped to -155, currently -142; Blanchfield opened +165, dropped to +127, currently +117. Zane notes the odds are getting shorter for Blanchfield, which he finds surprising.
"I gotta pick Androge. Yeah, you know, there's the outside edge of an upset potential... Blanchfield is a good finisher... but it's just not complete enough for me to pick her here."
Cynthia Calvillo - Fight History
LOSS vs Loopy Godinez
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Loopy Godinez 0 104 of 333 31% 107 of 338 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
Cynthia Calvillo 0 87 of 180 48% 93 of 188 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Loopy Godinez 0 18 of 83 21% 21 of 87 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:14
Cynthia Calvillo 0 19 of 45 42% 24 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Loopy Godinez 0 38 of 118 32% 38 of 118 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 32 of 54 59% 33 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Loopy Godinez 0 48 of 132 36% 48 of 133 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Cynthia Calvillo 0 36 of 81 44% 36 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Loopy Godinez 104 of 333 31% 58 of 249 30 of 64 16 of 20 104 of 333 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 87 of 180 48% 65 of 146 15 of 24 7 of 10 87 of 178 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Loopy Godinez 18 of 83 21% 12 of 70 3 of 10 3 of 3 18 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 19 of 45 42% 14 of 37 1 of 4 4 of 4 19 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Loopy Godinez 38 of 118 32% 21 of 84 13 of 26 4 of 8 38 of 118 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 32 of 54 59% 25 of 43 7 of 9 0 of 2 32 of 52 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Loopy Godinez 48 of 132 36% 25 of 95 14 of 28 9 of 9 48 of 132 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 36 of 81 44% 26 of 66 7 of 11 3 of 4 36 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Angelo picks Lupita Godinez but is not betting due to her unreliable performance against Angela Hill. He notes that when Lupita shows up, she is a big, strong, powerful wrestler with clean boxing, but she needs to be the bully. He thinks she should be able to push Cynthia Calvillo around, but needs to prove herself after the last fight.

"Loopy's the pick if you want a parlayer go for it I I'm just gonna sit tight have her proof herself to me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady picks Lupita Godinez but with hesitation due to her poor game plan against Angela Hill where she didn't wrestle. He believes Godinez should win by using her wrestling against Calvillo, who is on a losing streak. He predicts a decision win but expresses distrust in Godinez's consistency.

"give me loopy by decision but I'm done trusting loopy after she decided to to not wrestle on the Angela Hill fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Cody picks Calvillo as a value play. He notes Godinez's inconsistency and poor fight IQ, and believes Calvillo has a chance despite her losing streak. He mentions Calvillo's wrestling background and that she has been competitive against top fighters. Cody says he already put $200 on Calvillo earlier in the week and may add more. He calls it a system play based on Pat Mayo's CF model.

Calvillo moneyline at +250
"I think I put like 200 bucks earlier in the week on it but uh I may be adding more"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Godinez. He notes that Calvillo's division switch is a bad sign and that her game doesn't connect. Connor also mentions that Godinez is aggressive and should win.

"Yep. Godinas opened to the minus three 26..."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Jacob is leaning towards Lupita but is wary after being burned by her last fight. He notes that if Lupita uses her wrestling, she can dominate, but if she doesn't, it will be a close fight. He thinks Cynthia Calvillo may be 'broke' with zero confidence, but Lupita's inconsistency makes him hesitant.

"if loopy wants to wrestle she can dominate if she doesn't wrestle it's gonna be a close close fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Godinez has good wrestling and BJJ, but needs to blend takedowns behind her striking. Calvillo has struggled with her striking and confidence, and a recent camp change may not help at 35. Godinez should have a striking advantage and can stuff takedowns. My only concern is Godinez getting stuck in bad positions, but I think she pulls away via decision.

"I think that godinez is the better fighter odds a little bit too wide for me here but I still think she gets her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Paul picks Godinez but is very hesitant. He criticizes Godinez's poor fight IQ, noting she often abandons her wrestling and strikes instead. He points to her fight against Angela Hill where she didn't wrestle despite having a clear advantage. Paul thinks Calvillo is on a losing streak but has faced tough competition. He says Godinez is talented but unreliable at -300.

Godinez under 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"the pick is gonna end up being on uh on her opponent Lupita godinez but from -300 no we're talking like fourth line Fifth Line low lower on the list"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Loopy Godinez

The MMA Guru picks Lupita Godinez to win by 29-28 split decision. He expects Godinez to land crisper shots on the feet and mix in takedowns in the first two rounds, while Calvillo will come back in the third round. He sees round two as a toss-up but believes Godinez's takedowns will be the difference maker. The prediction is close and acknowledges Calvillo's late surge.

"I'm gonna go with Lupita godinez by 29.28 Split Decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Zane picks Godinez because Calvillo has been mentally in a hole and her game is dysfunctional. He notes that Godinez is crazy and aggressive, which should be enough to win. However, he worries that if Godinez can't get takedowns, she loses confidence in her boxing.

"I'm going to take Godinas. I don't love this fight for her... but Calvillo has been mentally in a hole and I can't pick her."
LOSS vs Nina Nunes
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nina Nunes 0 48 of 139 34% 66 of 159 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:09
Cynthia Calvillo 0 39 of 133 29% 47 of 142 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nina Nunes 0 10 of 40 25% 10 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 10 of 37 27% 10 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nina Nunes 0 9 of 41 21% 27 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Cynthia Calvillo 0 9 of 39 23% 16 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Nina Nunes 0 29 of 58 50% 29 of 58 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:23
Cynthia Calvillo 0 20 of 57 35% 21 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nina Nunes 48 of 139 34% 16 of 86 17 of 26 15 of 27 47 of 138 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 39 of 133 29% 17 of 94 4 of 12 18 of 27 38 of 131 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nina Nunes 10 of 40 25% 4 of 26 1 of 4 5 of 10 10 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 10 of 37 27% 1 of 21 1 of 4 8 of 12 10 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nina Nunes 9 of 41 21% 3 of 28 4 of 7 2 of 6 9 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 9 of 39 23% 5 of 30 1 of 3 3 of 6 8 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Nina Nunes 29 of 58 50% 9 of 32 12 of 15 8 of 11 28 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 20 of 57 35% 11 of 43 2 of 5 7 of 9 20 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nina Nunes

Angelo picks Nina Nunes as an underdog, citing Calvillo's decline after the Andrade loss and her quitting on the stool. He believes Nunes is more consistent, tough, and will not break. He notes Calvillo is the more talented fighter but has lost her edge.

"i gotta go with nunes here i think calvillo is definitely the better fighter overall ... but if you look at that entourage loss it took something out of her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Nina Nunes

Big Brady hesitantly picks Nina Nunes to win by decision. He notes that both fighters are on losing streaks and have question marks: Nunes is 36, coming off a layoff and a loss, while Calvillo is 35, on a three-fight skid, and seems distracted. Stylistically, Nunes has better takedown defense and striking. Brady says he would never bet on this fight but picks Nunes to stuff takedowns and win on the feet.

win by decision
"i guess i'll go with nina nunez here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nina Nunes

Cody picks Nina Nunes, citing red flags on both sides but favoring Nunes' striking advantage and improved grappling camp with Amanda Nunes. He notes Calvillo's recent lack of wrestling and poor durability. Cody thinks Nunes can scramble back to her feet and win on the feet.

"i will go with nina nunez there's red flags all over this thing man"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Daniel Levi passes on this fight, noting that both fighters are in uncertain form. He says Cynthia Calvillo has been quitting on the stool and Nina Nunes had a baby and COVID. He cannot confidently pick a winner.

"I got no idea."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)

The host mentions Nunes as an underdog he likes but wants nothing to do with that fight, so he does not make a pick. He does not provide any analysis or reasoning for either fighter.

"i would say nina nunes as well but i want nothing to do with that fight so i'm not gonna tell you guys to do that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nina Nunes

Paul leans toward Nina Nunes as an underdog. He notes that Calvillo hasn't dominated with wrestling at 125 lbs and that if the fight stays standing, Nunes wins. He is considering a shot on the dog, citing Calvillo's recent poor performances and lack of desire.

"i'll i haven't bet it yet but i'm considering a shot on the dog nina nunez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

The host picks Cynthia Calvillo, questioning Nina Nunes's focus and commitment. He notes Nunes's easy loss to Mackenzie Dern and believes Calvillo's grappling and recent competition level will lead to a 29-28 decision. He expects Calvillo to pull ahead after a tough first round.

29-28 decision
"i'm going to be going with cynthia calvillo"
LOSS vs Andrea Lee
TKO (corner stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrea Lee 0 47 of 154 30% 47 of 154 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Cynthia Calvillo 0 84 of 210 40% 85 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrea Lee 0 25 of 87 28% 25 of 87 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Cynthia Calvillo 0 43 of 116 37% 44 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrea Lee 0 22 of 67 32% 22 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 41 of 94 43% 41 of 94 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrea Lee 47 of 154 30% 18 of 99 21 of 46 8 of 9 47 of 154 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 84 of 210 40% 46 of 155 30 of 45 8 of 10 83 of 208 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrea Lee 25 of 87 28% 11 of 62 10 of 20 4 of 5 25 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 43 of 116 37% 27 of 92 12 of 19 4 of 5 43 of 115 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Andrea Lee 22 of 67 32% 7 of 37 11 of 26 4 of 4 22 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 41 of 94 43% 19 of 63 18 of 26 4 of 5 40 of 93 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Angelo picks Andrea Lee, citing her polished striking and comfort on the feet. He notes that Calvillo looks uncomfortable striking and that Lee has improved grappling. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Lee at near even money and thinks she can control the striking exchanges.

moneyline bet at minus 105
"andrea leaves my pick and i do have a moneyline bet at her at minus 105 almost even money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo but is hesitant, noting Andrea Lee has superior striking volume and accuracy. However, he highlights Lee's poor takedown defense (57%) and that she has been taken down in every UFC fight except one. Brady believes Calvillo can win by wrestling, but recalls her fight against Chookagian where she didn't wrestle enough, causing doubt.

Calvillo by decision
"i will take alveo though and i will take alvey to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody has a gut feeling that Calvillo might lose. He notes that Lee has been working on her wrestling and that Calvillo is 1-2 at 125 lbs. He thinks if Lee can stuff takedowns, she can out-strike Calvillo. He calls it a 'dog or pass' and might take a small shot on Lee.

"i got a bad gut feeling that calvio's actually gonna end up losing this one"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Daniel Levi picks Cynthia Calvillo, citing her dominant ground game and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee has been taken down multiple times by previous opponents (Roxanne Modafferi, Lauren Murphy, Joanne Calderwood) and believes Calvillo only needs one or two takedowns to win rounds or secure a finish. Levi acknowledges Lee's striking volume but thinks Calvillo's grappling will be the difference.

"give me cynthia calvio to come out here and and probably win the decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Jacob picks Cynthia Calvillo, believing she will dominate on the ground. He thinks Calvillo will get in the pocket, take Lee down, and control the fight. Jacob is a big Calvillo fan and thinks the UFC gave her a winnable matchup after her loss to Andrade.

"i think she absolutely dominates this fight i i'm a big cynthia fan"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Paul believes Calvillo has a massive wrestling advantage and should spam takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee gives up takedowns to everyone. He thinks Calvillo can control the fight on the ground and win a decision.

"i think calvio is the side here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Cynthia Calvillo

The Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo by unanimous decision (29-27). He expects Andrea Lee to win the first round on the feet, but Calvillo's takedowns and ground control in rounds two and three will secure the win. Calvillo will get a 10-8 in the third due to dominant ground and pound.

unanimous decision 29-27
"i'm going to be going with cynthia calvillo here and i'm going to be picking her by unanimous decision"
TKO (punches) R1 4:54 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 48 of 86 55% 48 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 27 of 75 36% 27 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 48 of 86 55% 48 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 27 of 75 36% 27 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 48 of 86 55% 34 of 70 2 of 3 12 of 13 41 of 72 7 of 14 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 27 of 75 36% 10 of 52 13 of 18 4 of 5 27 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 48 of 86 55% 34 of 70 2 of 3 12 of 13 41 of 72 7 of 14 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 27 of 75 36% 10 of 52 13 of 18 4 of 5 27 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Angelo picks Andrade, noting her power, bullying style, and that her losses are only to champions. He believes Andrade's strength and aggression will overwhelm Calvillo, who is more technical but lacks power. Angelo thinks Andrade will bully Calvillo and win.

Angelo likes less less on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting a stoppage. He says he won't touch the moneyline at -280.
"Jessica Andre gets this done bullies the hell out of Cynthia"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady picks Jéssica Andrade to win by decision. He believes Andrade is the better striker with more power and volume, and she should stuff Calvillo's takedowns. He notes Andrade has fought much better competition and expects a dominant performance.

"i'll take jessica andraj to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Cody is confident Andrade wins, citing her superior strength, pressure, and well-rounded skills. He thinks she will finish Calvillo, who has never been finished in MMA but has shown vulnerabilities. He likes Andrade inside the distance at +150.

Andrade inside the distance (+150)
"i like andrade i like android inside the distance i think she becomes the first woman to finish cynthia calvillo"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Daniel Levi picks Jéssica Andrade, acknowledging her power and history of knockouts in the women's divisions. He notes that Andrade's power can override technique, but he questions her motivation after losing two title fights. He respects Cynthia Calvillo's ground game and toughness, but believes if Andrade is mentally focused, she will win. He expresses concern about a potential title-fight letdown.

"if jessica andraj comes out here looking like the just gone we all know and love then i think she's gonna come out here and win this fight"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Jacob picks Calvillo, seeing value at +220. He thinks Calvillo can out-tough Andrade and threaten submissions. Jacob notes that Andrade may not be able to bully Calvillo at flyweight. He admits he doesn't think Calvillo will dominate but sees a path to victory.

Jacob considers including Calvillo in his DraftKings lineup at $7,200. He disagrees with Angelo's less less pick, leaning more more.
"I think there's some real value in Cynthia here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Jéssica Andrade

The host picks Jéssica Andrade via decision. He believes Andrade will march forward, land big shots, and stop takedowns. He thinks Calvillo's wrestling is not good enough to take Andrade down repeatedly. He notes that Andrade has a power advantage and will do damage, but Calvillo is durable. He expects the fight to take place mostly on the feet where Andrade has the edge.

"i'm going to go with andraj be a decision in this spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Paul is confident Andrade wins, calling her a 'body snatcher' and noting her power and durability. He acknowledges Calvillo's path to victory via wrestling but doubts she can impose her will. He expects Andrade to dominate.

"i think jessica andrade kills her i don't even think this is going to be particularly close"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade over Cynthia Calvillo, citing Andrade's superior striking and grappling. He notes that Calvillo has no finishing ability and cannot keep Andrade down. He expects Andrade to win a decision, possibly with a late-round finish, as she builds momentum. He mentions that Andrade is younger and has fought for titles, while Calvillo couldn't crack the top 10 at strawweight.

decision, good odds on decision
"i'll say a decision for jessica and raj and there might be some good odds on that as well"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 69 of 230 30% 69 of 230 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 60 of 197 30% 60 of 197 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 27 of 72 37% 27 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 21 of 60 35% 21 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 24 of 80 30% 24 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 17 of 71 23% 17 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 18 of 78 23% 18 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 22 of 66 33% 22 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 69 of 230 30% 45 of 190 11 of 22 13 of 18 68 of 227 1 of 3 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 60 of 197 30% 31 of 134 17 of 46 12 of 17 59 of 196 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 27 of 72 37% 11 of 51 7 of 10 9 of 11 27 of 71 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 21 of 60 35% 11 of 42 4 of 11 6 of 7 21 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 24 of 80 30% 19 of 71 2 of 5 3 of 4 23 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 17 of 71 23% 8 of 51 6 of 15 3 of 5 17 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 18 of 78 23% 15 of 68 2 of 7 1 of 3 18 of 77 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 22 of 66 33% 12 of 41 7 of 20 3 of 5 21 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by decision. He notes Calvillo has good wrestling and Chookagian has poor takedown defense (48%). He thinks Calvillo will take her down and control the fight, though the line is too wide for a close fight.

"the picks calvio by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Daniel picks Calvillo, citing her toughness, improved striking, and ground game. He notes Chookagian has been talking about retirement and was stopped in her last fight. He believes Calvillo is hungrier and will impose her will, especially if she gets top position.

"i'm gonna go with cynthia cavilla calvillo to get this one done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by decision, seeing massive value at plus money. He believes her movement and range will cause problems for Calvillo, and that she can keep the fight on the feet or hold her own on the ground. He thinks the line is too wide and that Cerminara has a good chance.

"I'm going to go with Tran to win this fight via decision as uh you know if this fight does primarily play out on the feet she could absolutely steal it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

The MMA Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Calvillo's takedowns will be the difference, as she has evolved and has good grappling. He notes Chookagian may be coming back too soon after a body shot loss, and that Calvillo has wins over top flyweights like Joanne Calderwood.

"going to go with cynthia calvio getting the unanimous decision win"
WIN vs Jessica Eye
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Eye vs. Calvillo · Jun 13, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cynthia Calvillo 0 70 of 280 25% 70 of 283 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 113 of 237 47% 150 of 294 4 of 7 57% 0 0 7:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cynthia Calvillo 0 20 of 82 24% 20 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 24 of 68 35% 24 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cynthia Calvillo 0 7 of 23 30% 7 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 12 of 18 66% 30 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:47
3 Cynthia Calvillo 0 14 of 55 25% 14 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 23 of 53 43% 26 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:17
4 Cynthia Calvillo 0 5 of 34 14% 5 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 17 of 30 56% 33 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
5 Cynthia Calvillo 0 24 of 86 27% 24 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 37 of 68 54% 37 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cynthia Calvillo 70 of 280 25% 59 of 261 10 of 17 1 of 2 69 of 276 1 of 4 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 113 of 237 47% 77 of 185 32 of 48 4 of 4 105 of 225 1 of 1 7 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cynthia Calvillo 20 of 82 24% 16 of 78 4 of 4 0 of 0 20 of 80 0 of 2 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 24 of 68 35% 13 of 54 8 of 11 3 of 3 24 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cynthia Calvillo 7 of 23 30% 4 of 20 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 12 of 18 66% 9 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 4
3 Cynthia Calvillo 14 of 55 25% 14 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 1 14 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 23 of 53 43% 15 of 37 7 of 15 1 of 1 23 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Cynthia Calvillo 5 of 34 14% 5 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 17 of 30 56% 14 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 0 17 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Cynthia Calvillo 24 of 86 27% 20 of 77 4 of 9 0 of 0 24 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 37 of 68 54% 26 of 53 11 of 15 0 of 0 33 of 60 1 of 1 3 of 7
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 12, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Daniel Levi slightly leans towards Cynthia Calvillo, emphasizing her opportunistic ground game and finishing ability. He notes that while Jessica Eye may have advantages in boxing and athleticism, Calvillo can capitalize on takedowns and ground control to steal rounds. Levi acknowledges his bias against Eye but believes Calvillo's cardio and opportunistic nature could edge her to a close decision or even a finish.

"I'm gonna slightly lean towards Cynthia Calvillo here and maybe that's my own bias Shack because I tend to pick against Jessica eye all the time and that bad I'm way to work like a charm at flyweight it's been …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Jessica Eye

The MMA Guru picks Jessica Eye, citing her reach advantage, size, takedown defense, and superior boxing. He notes that Cynthia Calvillo is 32 and not a young talent, so he favors Eye's experience. He predicts a boring five-round unanimous decision with Eye winning every round.

boring five-round unanimous decision, 50-45 scorecard
"Jessica is gonna win this one. She's got a reach advantage, she's way bigger than Cynthia Calvillo, she's got great takedown defense, she's way better at boxing."
Draw (majority) (29–28, 28–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · Dec 07, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 56 of 140 40% 61 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 78 of 130 60% 112 of 173 3 of 4 75% 0 0 5:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 22 of 53 41% 27 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 21 of 32 65% 25 of 37 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:35
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 29 of 71 40% 29 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 13 of 39 33% 14 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
3 Marina Rodriguez 0 5 of 16 31% 5 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 44 of 59 74% 73 of 96 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 56 of 140 40% 30 of 110 18 of 20 8 of 10 39 of 117 17 of 23 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 78 of 130 60% 51 of 90 17 of 26 10 of 14 30 of 72 2 of 2 46 of 56
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 22 of 53 41% 17 of 48 4 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 44 8 of 9 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 21 of 32 65% 12 of 19 4 of 7 5 of 6 16 of 27 1 of 1 4 of 4
2 Marina Rodriguez 29 of 71 40% 13 of 51 11 of 13 5 of 7 20 of 58 9 of 13 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 13 of 39 33% 5 of 22 4 of 10 4 of 7 12 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marina Rodriguez 5 of 16 31% 0 of 11 3 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 44 of 59 74% 34 of 49 9 of 9 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 42 of 52
WIN vs Cortney Casey
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Feb 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cynthia Calvillo 0 73 of 176 41% 73 of 177 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 82 of 192 42% 82 of 192 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cynthia Calvillo 0 24 of 58 41% 24 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 32 of 62 51% 32 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Cynthia Calvillo 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 28 of 63 44% 28 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:33
3 Cynthia Calvillo 0 27 of 66 40% 27 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 22 of 67 32% 22 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cynthia Calvillo 73 of 176 41% 41 of 136 6 of 8 26 of 32 72 of 175 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 82 of 192 42% 41 of 139 17 of 24 24 of 29 79 of 186 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cynthia Calvillo 24 of 58 41% 14 of 47 2 of 2 8 of 9 24 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 32 of 62 51% 10 of 37 8 of 11 14 of 14 29 of 59 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Cynthia Calvillo 22 of 52 42% 12 of 38 2 of 3 8 of 11 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 28 of 63 44% 15 of 45 7 of 10 6 of 8 28 of 61 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Cynthia Calvillo 27 of 66 40% 15 of 51 2 of 3 10 of 12 26 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 22 of 67 32% 16 of 57 2 of 3 4 of 7 22 of 66 0 of 1 0 of 0
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Angelo picks Andrade, noting her power, bullying style, and that her losses are only to champions. He believes Andrade's strength and aggression will overwhelm Calvillo, who is more technical but lacks power. Angelo thinks Andrade will bully Calvillo and win.

Angelo likes less less on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting a stoppage. He says he won't touch the moneyline at -280.
"Jessica Andre gets this done bullies the hell out of Cynthia"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady picks Jéssica Andrade to win by decision. He believes Andrade is the better striker with more power and volume, and she should stuff Calvillo's takedowns. He notes Andrade has fought much better competition and expects a dominant performance.

"i'll take jessica andraj to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Cody is confident Andrade wins, citing her superior strength, pressure, and well-rounded skills. He thinks she will finish Calvillo, who has never been finished in MMA but has shown vulnerabilities. He likes Andrade inside the distance at +150.

Andrade inside the distance (+150)
"i like andrade i like android inside the distance i think she becomes the first woman to finish cynthia calvillo"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Daniel Levi picks Jéssica Andrade, acknowledging her power and history of knockouts in the women's divisions. He notes that Andrade's power can override technique, but he questions her motivation after losing two title fights. He respects Cynthia Calvillo's ground game and toughness, but believes if Andrade is mentally focused, she will win. He expresses concern about a potential title-fight letdown.

"if jessica andraj comes out here looking like the just gone we all know and love then i think she's gonna come out here and win this fight"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Jacob picks Calvillo, seeing value at +220. He thinks Calvillo can out-tough Andrade and threaten submissions. Jacob notes that Andrade may not be able to bully Calvillo at flyweight. He admits he doesn't think Calvillo will dominate but sees a path to victory.

Jacob considers including Calvillo in his DraftKings lineup at $7,200. He disagrees with Angelo's less less pick, leaning more more.
"I think there's some real value in Cynthia here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Jéssica Andrade

The host picks Jéssica Andrade via decision. He believes Andrade will march forward, land big shots, and stop takedowns. He thinks Calvillo's wrestling is not good enough to take Andrade down repeatedly. He notes that Andrade has a power advantage and will do damage, but Calvillo is durable. He expects the fight to take place mostly on the feet where Andrade has the edge.

"i'm going to go with andraj be a decision in this spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Paul is confident Andrade wins, calling her a 'body snatcher' and noting her power and durability. He acknowledges Calvillo's path to victory via wrestling but doubts she can impose her will. He expects Andrade to dominate.

"i think jessica andrade kills her i don't even think this is going to be particularly close"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade over Cynthia Calvillo, citing Andrade's superior striking and grappling. He notes that Calvillo has no finishing ability and cannot keep Andrade down. He expects Andrade to win a decision, possibly with a late-round finish, as she builds momentum. He mentions that Andrade is younger and has fought for titles, while Calvillo couldn't crack the top 10 at strawweight.

decision, good odds on decision
"i'll say a decision for jessica and raj and there might be some good odds on that as well"