UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira Next Fight
Age 40
Height 5' 3"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 41
Height 5' 3"
Reach 65"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Karolina Kowalkiewicz
5.54 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
5.77 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.36 TD Avg
23.0% TD Acc.
74.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Silvana Gómez Juárez
4.26 SLpM
32.0% Str. Acc.
4.04 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
30.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Moneyline
Caesars +105
KO/TKO
FanDuel +700
Submission
BetRivers +750
Decision
DraftKings +225
Silvana Gómez Juárez
Moneyline
BetWay -110
KO/TKO
BetRivers +300
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
FanDuel +320
Karolina Kowalkiewicz - Fight History
LOSS vs Julia Polastri
KO R3 2:56 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julia Polastri 0 137 of 253 54% 142 of 261 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 72 of 192 37% 75 of 196 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julia Polastri 0 53 of 93 56% 58 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 22 of 61 36% 25 of 64 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Julia Polastri 0 46 of 96 47% 46 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 30 of 68 44% 30 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
3 Julia Polastri 0 38 of 64 59% 38 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 20 of 63 31% 20 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julia Polastri 137 of 253 54% 85 of 193 42 of 49 10 of 11 123 of 233 14 of 20 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 72 of 192 37% 24 of 121 36 of 57 12 of 14 71 of 189 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julia Polastri 53 of 93 56% 31 of 67 17 of 20 5 of 6 43 of 80 10 of 13 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 22 of 61 36% 7 of 40 13 of 18 2 of 3 21 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Julia Polastri 46 of 96 47% 29 of 79 14 of 14 3 of 3 42 of 89 4 of 7 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 30 of 68 44% 7 of 32 16 of 29 7 of 7 30 of 66 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Julia Polastri 38 of 64 59% 25 of 47 11 of 15 2 of 2 38 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 20 of 63 31% 10 of 49 7 of 10 3 of 4 20 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Julia Polastri
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Polastri (-450), Kowalkiewicz (+350)

Round 1
Strawweights take center stage as the prelims roll on. With a 12-year youth advantage on her side, a win for Polastri (13-5, 1-2 UFC) would lead her to a .500 record in the Octagon while dumping Kowalkiewicz (16-9, 9-9 UFC) below that threshold. A chasm of high-level experience separates the two, but it is “Psycho” who will serve as a significant betting favorite. The two ladies will be joined in the cage by referee Marc Goddard, who clocks them in as they clap hands.
Kowalkiewicz takes right to the center of the cage, and as booming chants of “Uh Vai Morrer” rain down, Polastri flashes a wry grin. The ladies toss out low kicks, and Kowalkiewicz strings together a combination ending with a left hand. Polastri resets and pitches a leg kick, only for Kowalkiewicz to counter over the top. Kowalkiewicz rips a body kick in the midst of her strike combos, and Polastri is not a fan and fires back with one much heavier. The former title challenger grimaces from the strike to her midsection, and Polastri explodes into a flurry of punches and kicks. Kowalkiewicz protects herself against the wire, and she smiles when Polastri peels back. The smile quickly turns to a frown when Polastri drives a knee home to the body, but she is able to back off and shake it off. Kowalkiewicz throws a kick, changes stances and works the body. Kowalkiewicz slips a punch and connects with a right, and she takes a few on the chin to hit the Brazilian back.
Kowalkiewicz spins with a back fist, and it collides into the guard but she is not far enough away to avoid counters. Kowalkiewicz thinks about a trip takedown when catching one of Polastri’s kicks, but she lets the limb down where there is nothing to it. Polastri again tries to tie up the Polish woman, where she spams knees to what might be an already compromised midsection. Polastri goes over the top with an elbow, and she uses her weight to press Kowalkiewicz on the fencing. Kowalkiewicz gives her back a few knees and elbows to think about, forcing a break. Kowalkiewicz whiffs on the subsequent spinning back fist. A front kick from her does split the guard, and any cheers from her corner are completely drowned out from the chants of the crowd. They trade heavy blows while standing right in the pocket, with Polastri appearing to have the power advantage and the superior speed too. Kowalkiewicz feebly spins when under fire, and Polastri lays into her with an onslaught of punches that knock the former KSW fighter into the wall. As Polastri keeps connecting, the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Polastri

Round 2
They clap hands again to start off the second stanza, and some swelling has developed under Kowalkiewicz’ right eye. She pays it no mind as Polastri comes right at her throwing caution to the wind. Kowalkiewicz tries to take her off her feet with a takedown attempt, but Polastri shuts it down and punches her square in the face. Kowalkiewicz meanders forward to grapple again, and Polastri’s intercepting knee and uppercut shut that down. Polastri senses that Kowalkiewicz is struggling, and she walks her foe down and beats on her relentlessly. Kowalkiewicz bounds off the fence to reset, and Polastri drops her hands and takes several deep breaths to get her wind back from going all-out. Kowalkiewicz is tough as nails, and she takes advantage of this opening with distant strikes. Once Polastri is ready to engage again, she raises her hands and cracks the Polish woman. Polastri fearlessly approaches her opponent, even with her energy reserves far from full, and she welcomes striking exchanges. Kowalkiewicz puts volume together as Polastri is looking for big power blows, and although Kowalkiewicz takes some on the chin, she evades the worst of the blows…until she doesn’t.
Totally unafraid of anything that comes back at her, Polastri connects with a flurry of punches and kicks that knock Kowalkiewicz back to the wall again. When Kowalkiewicz tries to get away, Polastri raises her arms in the air to further lather up the ravenous audience. Kowalkiewicz attempts a takedown, and Polastri takes longer to stop it but still manages to stonewall the former title challenger. Polastri flashes out a jab directly on the swollen cheek, and Kowalkiewicz kicks her back in the body. Polastri slaps her midsection, and she walks through the potshots of Kowalkiewicz to land heavy punches that bust open Kowalkiewicz’ nose. Kowalkiewicz spins with an elbow that bangs off the forehead, and Polastri energizes herself into one final assault before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Polastri

Round 3
After 10 minutes of action, the strawweights come together in the center of the cage to hug it out. Polastri lands a single power strike, and Kowalkiewicz lets her have it with a long, effective flurry of fists and feet. Kowalkiewicz swings and ducks away to evade counters, and Polastri is still sporadically swinging for the bleachers. Kowalkiewicz sticks her foe with a short right hand, and she stuns the Brazilian for a second with another scooping uppercut. Polastri steels herself and boots Kowalkiewicz upside the head, and that only spurs Kowalkiewicz into more activity with a lengthy stretch of punches. Polastri connects with a hard body shot, and Kowalkiewicz’ body language and expression changes. Polastri digs several more strikes to the torso, and Kowalkiewicz bends over to try to take some of the sting out of them and has to actually sprint away to fully reset. Polastri walks her down like a Terminator, and her punches have developed more swelling and damage on Kowalkiewicz’ face.
With a full head of steam, Polastri steps in with a booming head kick that shakes up the ex-title challenger. Putting Kowalkiewicz’ on ice skates, Polastri marches forward and delivers a ruthless combination of punches to the head and body that have Kowalkiewicz in all sorts of trouble. With a couple minute still left on the clock, Polastri is cognizant that she does not want to punch herself out, but she knows that Kowalkiewicz is in trouble.
“Psycho” lets loose with all of her remaining energy, busting up Kowalkiewicz further and knocking her head around like a speed bag. As Kowalkiewicz is barely on her feet, possibly because the cage is behind her, Goddard intervenes to save the Polish woman from her toughness.
The crowd goes wild for the first Brazilian tonight to beat a foreign opponent, and Polastri hands Kowalkiewicz her second knockout loss—the first came from the mighty fist of Jessica Andrade. That is good company to be in.

The Official Result
Julia Polastri def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz R3 2:56 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

Angelo leans towards Julia Polastri, citing her better striking, speed, and cleaner technique. He notes Karolina is too old and slowing down. However, he does not trust Julia enough at the current odds and prefers the over 2.5 rounds prop instead of the moneyline.

over 2.5 rounds
"I think Julia's a better striker. I think she's faster. She's cleaner. Because of that, I think she wins here. I do not trust her enough at these odds. But the over two and a half is good as gold."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

Big Brady picks Julia Polastri, citing her youth (27 vs 39), and being better everywhere: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He expects Polastri to come forward landing bigger shots and win a decision in Brazil. He acknowledges Karolina is tough and has decent volume, but believes Polastri's advantages are clear.

"Pastri, I think she's just better everywhere, you know, especially at the both stages of their career."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

Cody picks Polastri but is not confident, noting Kowalkiewicz's experience and potential to make it close. He believes Polastri's youth and speed will be key, but expects a decision that could go either way. He suggests Polastri by decision.

decision
"I just can't pick Karolina but I will fully admit this is a lot closer to the CF dot model."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

Lucrative James is very confident in Julia Polastri, citing Karolina Kowalkiewicz's age (turning 40) and lack of improvement. He believes Polastri is the better striker and grappler, and expects her to dominate. He notes that Kowalkiewicz is a striker and won't be able to wrestle effectively. He sees a finish as likely, pointing to Polastri's submission skills and the poor odds on the under 2.5 rounds (+334) and KO (+900) as value. He picks Polastri confidently.

under 2.5 rounds (+334), Julia Polastri by KO (+900), Julia Polastri by submission (+450)
"I side with the big favorite in this fight, boys. I side with Julia Palestri."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

Manpreet is confident in Polastri, citing her youth, speed, and well-rounded game. He expects her to mix takedowns with striking and win a clear decision, as Kowalkiewicz is past her prime and on a losing streak. He doesn't mind the chalky odds.

Polastri by decision
"I don't mind Palatstri at chalky odds here. She's just in a far better place than Kowalkiewicz is in her career."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

Paul picks Polastri but is hesitant, calling it close to a 'CF dot model.' He notes Kowalkiewicz's age and 0-4 record against Brazilians, but expects a competitive decision. He suggests Polastri by decision.

decision
"I did end up taking her because with Karolina, if it wasn't the end her last fight, I think it's going to be the end this one."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

The MMA Guru picks Julia Polastri over Karolina Kowalkiewicz, believing Kowalkiewicz is past her prime at nearly 40 and has looked poor recently. He notes Polastri has wins over decent competition and is fighting in Brazil. He predicts a decision win, likely 29-28.

over 2.5 total rounds (for prize picks)
"I'm going to trust in Julia Palastri to get this one done by decision. Maybe 30-27, maybe 2928."
LOSS vs Denise Gomes
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Denise Gomes 0 46 of 98 46% 61 of 115 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:02
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 73 of 144 50% 91 of 166 0 of 3 0% 1 0 5:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Denise Gomes 0 7 of 16 43% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 22 of 36 61% 32 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:11
2 Denise Gomes 0 13 of 31 41% 21 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 23 of 45 51% 28 of 52 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:15
3 Denise Gomes 0 26 of 51 50% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 28 of 63 44% 31 of 68 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Denise Gomes 46 of 98 46% 16 of 57 19 of 24 11 of 17 39 of 89 7 of 9 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 73 of 144 50% 30 of 85 33 of 44 10 of 15 53 of 115 20 of 28 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Denise Gomes 7 of 16 43% 0 of 5 5 of 5 2 of 6 4 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 22 of 36 61% 8 of 17 12 of 15 2 of 4 12 of 25 10 of 11 0 of 0
2 Denise Gomes 13 of 31 41% 5 of 19 4 of 6 4 of 6 12 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 23 of 45 51% 9 of 24 9 of 15 5 of 6 18 of 36 5 of 9 0 of 0
3 Denise Gomes 26 of 51 50% 11 of 33 10 of 13 5 of 5 23 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 28 of 63 44% 13 of 44 12 of 14 3 of 5 23 of 54 5 of 8 0 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Big Brady sees Gomes as much younger, more powerful, and with grappling upside. He believes she can win on the feet or via takedowns. Despite the -500 line, he thinks Gomes gets her hand raised, likely by decision.

Gomes by decision
"give me GES here minus 500 it's absolutely ridiculous but at the end of the day I think she gets her hand raised and I think it's by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Cody disagrees with Paul, arguing that Kowalkiewicz's wrestling is not good enough to exploit Gomes' weakness. He notes that even when opponents wrestle Gomes, she still lands significant strikes. Cody believes Gomes' youth, power, and speed will overwhelm the 39-year-old Kowalkiewicz, likely by decision or knockout.

"I actually think that Denise Gomez probably knocks her out might knock her out but more than likely just wins a 29-28 fairly comfortably."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, assuming Gomes doesn't knock her out immediately. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's experience and grappling advantage will take over as Gomes fades. He notes the odds are too wide in favor of Gomes, who he considers not good and prone to mistakes.

Odds too wide; Gomes should not be such a heavy favorite.
"I'll take Kovalkiewicz and the assumption that Gomes doesn't knock her out immediately."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Daniel Vreeland picks Denise Gomes due to her youth, physicality, and momentum, contrasting with Karolina Kowalkiewicz's age (39) and decline. He notes Kowalkiewicz's past success but believes Gomes' power and aggressive style will be too much. However, he has zero interest in betting at -500 odds.

"I'm going with Denise, the age, the physicality, the momentum on her side, but I have zero interest in laying minus 500 on her."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Lucrative James picks Denise Gomes to win by knockout, citing her heavy power and Karolina's declining career trajectory. He believes Gomes will be too physical and that Kowalkiewicz won't be able to implement her game plan of volume and grappling. He expects a brutal knockout.

by KO
"I'm picking Denise Gomez here and I think she gets a knockout potentially a brutal knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Denise Gomes

Gomes is expected to control the striking with her power and possibly get some grappling success to win on the scorecards, similar to how Yasmin Lucindo beat Kowalkiewicz.

"look for Gomez to control the Striking round with the power that she possesses but maybe even get some grappling success of her own to get some control time and win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul is considering the underdog Kowalkiewicz at +390, noting that Gomes has shown takedown defense issues. He thinks if Kowalkiewicz can replicate her performance against Syana Gomez Warez, she could make it competitive. Paul admits it's a sucker bet but is tempted by the price.

"Karolina plus 390 is in consideration for me this week Cody and it's gross."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

The Guru picks Denise Gomes, expecting a brutal assault. He notes Kowalkiewicz's age (39) and her scared reaction when hit. He believes Gomes is a big, physical fighter for the division and will get a TKO win.

TKO win
"I'm going with Denise Gomez getting this one done over kolina kovalovich by TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Zane picks Gomes but is hesitant. He notes that Gomes has power and can knock out Kowalkiewicz early, but if she doesn't, she runs out of ideas and makes mistakes. He acknowledges Kowalkiewicz's grappling and backtake game could be a threat, but thinks Gomes' youth and power give her the edge.

"I think I'm going to pick Gomes though, still."
LOSS vs Iasmin Lucindo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 42 of 111 37% 47 of 119 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 83 of 136 61% 91 of 144 2 of 6 33% 0 0 5:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 7 of 18 38% 8 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 25 of 36 69% 31 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:48
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 26 of 61 42% 26 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 38 of 72 52% 38 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 9 of 32 28% 13 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 20 of 28 71% 22 of 30 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 42 of 111 37% 17 of 73 15 of 22 10 of 16 40 of 108 2 of 3 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 83 of 136 61% 53 of 100 23 of 28 7 of 8 57 of 105 13 of 18 13 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 7 of 18 38% 4 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 4 5 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25 of 36 69% 18 of 28 6 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 17 9 of 12 7 of 7
2 Iasmin Lucindo 26 of 61 42% 9 of 38 11 of 13 6 of 10 26 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 38 of 72 52% 23 of 53 13 of 16 2 of 3 37 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 9 of 32 28% 4 of 22 3 of 8 2 of 2 9 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 20 of 28 71% 12 of 19 4 of 5 4 of 4 11 of 17 3 of 5 6 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Lucindo due to her youth and grappling advantage, but warns the odds are too rich. He notes that if Lucindo can't get takedowns, she's clueless on the feet and Kowalkiewicz could run away with it. He advises caution.

Angelo says 'the minus 330 odds they're just a little too rich for my blood'
"eisan lucendo is the pick but please be careful"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady views Lucindo as a big step up in competition for Kowalkiewicz. He believes Lucindo is better everywhere, with power and takedown ability. He expects Lucindo to win a decision, controlling the fight wherever it goes.

"I'm going to go decision for Lucindo."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo, citing her youth, speed, wrestling advantage, and submission win. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins are over lower-level competition and she's 38. Cody expects Lucindo to mix takedowns and win.

"I think lucendo can win on the feet but yeah mix in those takedowns..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Vreeland picks Kowalkiewicz by decision, citing her experience, volume striking, durability, and strength of schedule. He notes that Lucindo is young and talented but has never faced someone with Kowalkiewicz's level. He mentions Kowalkiewicz's recent four-fight win streak and improved confidence. He considers the decision prop as a potential value play.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I'm gonna go out on a limb I'm not confident but I'mma pick kolina kovak kavich"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is a 22-year-old at minus-400 odds, but stylistically she should be able to drag the fight into her realm with grappling and heavy top pressure. Kowalkiewicz has the striking advantage, but Lucindo has a great chin and ability to crash the pocket and change levels. Lucindo grinds out a decision win.

minus-400 odds
"look for lucino to utilize her grappling to grind out kovok kavich over 15 minutes to get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Paul picks Lucindo, emphasizing her speed, power, and wrestling. He notes Kowalkiewicz is on a four-fight win streak but against weak opposition, and her takedown defense is suspect. Paul sees Lucindo as the future and expects her to win.

"Gotta go Lucindo... young hot Brazilian prospect in Brazil who's got legitimate skills..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22) and power advantage over the 38-year-old Kowalkiewicz. He notes Lucindo's win over Poana Viana and her ability to inflict damage, while questioning Kowalkiewicz's recent level of competition. He believes Lucindo's physicality and aggression will be decisive.

"Yasmin lendo wins"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 141 of 267 52% 155 of 283 1 of 6 16% 0 1 2:15
Diana Belbiţă 0 99 of 261 37% 108 of 270 2 of 2 100% 0 1 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 39 of 74 52% 41 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:12
Diana Belbiţă 0 35 of 83 42% 41 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:13
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 41 of 76 53% 52 of 87 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:46
Diana Belbiţă 0 30 of 66 45% 33 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 61 of 117 52% 62 of 118 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Diana Belbiţă 0 34 of 112 30% 34 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 141 of 267 52% 94 of 203 42 of 58 5 of 6 123 of 244 17 of 21 1 of 2
Diana Belbiţă 99 of 261 37% 57 of 199 33 of 50 9 of 12 85 of 241 13 of 18 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 39 of 74 52% 29 of 60 10 of 14 0 of 0 29 of 62 10 of 12 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 35 of 83 42% 21 of 64 11 of 14 3 of 5 25 of 70 10 of 13 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 41 of 76 53% 31 of 62 7 of 11 3 of 3 34 of 66 6 of 8 1 of 2
Diana Belbiţă 30 of 66 45% 18 of 49 10 of 15 2 of 2 26 of 60 3 of 4 1 of 2
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 61 of 117 52% 34 of 81 25 of 33 2 of 3 60 of 116 1 of 1 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 34 of 112 30% 18 of 86 12 of 21 4 of 5 34 of 111 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Big Brady picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, noting her recent three-fight winning streak and that her previous losses came against elite competition. He believes Diana Belbiţă is a step down in competition and criticizes Belbiţă's losses to lower-tier fighters. He thinks Kowalkiewicz can have success with grappling, as Belbiţă has been taken down frequently. He predicts a decision win but is not in love with the price tag.

decision win for Karolina Kowalkiewicz
"give me Carolina kovak cavich to win this fight I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience, resurgence, and superior grappling. He notes that Belbiţă has only fought low-level opponents and has poor takedown defense. Kowalkiewicz should be able to mix in takedowns and control the fight, likely winning a decision.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I gotta go with Carolyn colvikovich all day... that really does come down to the back class"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi leans Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her historical level and recent confidence boost from a three-fight win streak. He notes her improved grappling and high output in her last fight. However, he acknowledges she is 37 and has had inconsistent performances, and that Diana Belbiţă has good striking volume. He is not fully confident but picks Kowalkiewicz based on her overall career.

"I'm gonna go Carolina because I think historically she's always been the better fighter"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Diana Belbiţă

Lucrative James is confident in Belbiţă, having bet her at +160. He argues that the market overvalues skill-for-skill while ignoring intangibles: Belbiţă hits harder, is younger (37 vs prime), and has a reach and height advantage. He believes Kowalkiewicz has a magnet for 4-ounce gloves and will get knocked down or finished. He thinks the line should be a pick'em or Belbiţă favored.

bet at +160, line should be -120 or so
"I bet Diana B at plus 160 about a week ago now she's plus 120 or something... I think this fight should be a pick him if not Bel beat a favorite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

Belbiţă is younger and has been improving, using volume striking and forward pressure. Kowalkiewicz is the more technical striker but has been inconsistent. If Belbiţă can keep the fight standing and avoid being controlled on the ground, her volume could sway the judges. She is worth a shot as an underdog, though Kowalkiewicz has more experience. Expect a decision win for Belbiţă.

"give me a shot on the underdog here in belza and I think she picks up her win... by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, noting her ability to win via volume or grappling. He mentions Belbiţă's reach advantage but believes Kowalkiewicz's experience and takedown ability will be decisive. He likes the moneyline and also considers the decision prop.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I like Carolina... Carolina by decision is probably that's Plus 105... I think the money lines just fine as it is minus 160"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Diana Belbiţă, though not very confident. He notes Kowalkiewicz looked good in her last fight against Vanessa Demopoulos and is on a three-fight win streak after a long losing streak, building confidence. He dismisses Belbiţă's wins over Maria Oliveira and Molly McCann as unimpressive, and points out that Belbiţă was finished by an Instagram model. He believes Kowalkiewicz's momentum and better competition give her the edge.

"I'm gonna go with Carolina kovalkovich over to Yahoo beta not the most confident but I think I'm all right with this one"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 139 of 237 58% 148 of 249 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:52
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 68 of 221 30% 83 of 237 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 42 of 84 50% 42 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 28 of 71 39% 36 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 55 of 82 67% 56 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 22 of 86 25% 22 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 42 of 71 59% 50 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:29
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 18 of 64 28% 25 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 139 of 237 58% 94 of 187 30 of 33 15 of 17 134 of 230 5 of 7 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 68 of 221 30% 49 of 190 13 of 23 6 of 8 65 of 216 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 42 of 84 50% 33 of 73 7 of 8 2 of 3 37 of 77 5 of 7 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 28 of 71 39% 20 of 62 4 of 5 4 of 4 25 of 66 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 55 of 82 67% 30 of 55 16 of 17 9 of 10 55 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 22 of 86 25% 13 of 71 7 of 13 2 of 2 22 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 42 of 71 59% 31 of 59 7 of 8 4 of 4 42 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 18 of 64 28% 16 of 57 2 of 5 0 of 2 18 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Angelo picks Vanessa Demopoulos because he thinks Karolina is aging out and didn't look good in her last fight, needing grappling to get a sketchy decision. He believes Vanessa is a solid grappler herself, sets a nice pace, and can hang with the striking. He expects Vanessa to outwork Karolina and win by decision.

Bet on over 2.5 rounds (round line)
"I like Vanessa to win this fight she probably wins by decision but these are the fights right these are the fights where the veteran can sort of take advantage of the situation"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos as the underdog to submit Karolina Kowalkiewicz in the second round. He notes Demopoulos has improved her wrestling and has a dog mentality, while Kowalkiewicz is the better striker but has been inconsistent. He believes if Demopoulos can get takedowns, she can control and submit Kowalkiewicz. However, he admits he doesn't have a ton of confidence in the pick.

submission in round 2
"I'm going to take Demopolis as the dog here I'm gonna say she goes out there and gets Carolina down to the man and submits her in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody believes Kowalkiewicz's striking and takedown defense will be enough to outpoint Demopoulos. He notes Demopoulos's grappling is a threat but Kowalkiewicz has faced high-level grapplers and should be able to keep the fight standing and win a decision.

"I too will take care of the cavage."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that she has shown signs of a renaissance in her last two fights, looking like she knows how her game works again. He highlights her surprisingly strong clinch and ground game, which could overwhelm Demopoulos. However, he acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz has been in dark places and her striking at range is not damaging, making this a hesitant pick.

"I'm riding with Kovalkavers. I think Demopolis is going to be one of those fighters that like I was just totally coming in..."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience and recent win. He believes Kowalkiewicz at her best is clearly ahead of Demopoulos, who is still developing. He acknowledges Demopoulos's grit and Jiu-Jitsu but thinks Kowalkiewicz's striking and veteran savvy will earn her a decision. He has a soft spot for Kowalkiewicz since she cashed a plus-215 underdog bet for him against Rose Namajunas.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I'm still gonna go with Carolina because I like the fact that she got back on track"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

The host picks Vanessa Demopoulos as an underdog, believing her BJJ black belt and strength in clinch and wrestling positions will allow her to take the fight to the ground. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's improved grappling confidence may get her into trouble. He predicts a submission win for Demopoulos, though notes if it stays standing, Kowalkiewicz has the advantage.

submission
"give me the underdog here give me Vanessa Demopolis and I think she wins this fight by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul is surprised by the line and sees value on Kowalkiewicz. He notes her experience and recent wins, and thinks Demopoulos's grappling is not at a level to trouble her. He expects Kowalkiewicz to win a clear decision.

"Caroline is the pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru sides with Karolina Kowalkiewicz, believing she is more well-rounded and has better striking. He dismisses Vanessa Demopoulos as not very talented and suggests she has received gifted decisions due to promotability. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins over Silvana Gomez Juarez and her competitive losses to top fighters. He expects Kowalkiewicz to outbox Demopoulos and win a decision.

"I'm gonna go with Carolina ... I think she's gonna get this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Zane picks Demopoulos, believing she is a good athlete who is improving quickly and will keep showing up and surprising. He thinks Kowalkiewicz may get a round of dominant grappling but will have trouble controlling Demopoulos and putting a stamp on other rounds. Zane is not confident in Kowalkiewicz's current form and sees Demopoulos's athleticism and power as potential factors.

"I'm going to take Demopolis. I think she's just going to keep showing up and surprising."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 74 of 202 36% 90 of 230 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:03
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 77 of 263 29% 79 of 267 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 5 of 15 33% 20 of 41 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:45
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 6 of 31 19% 7 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 31 of 86 36% 31 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 27 of 105 25% 27 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 38 of 101 37% 39 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 44 of 127 34% 45 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 74 of 202 36% 55 of 170 13 of 25 6 of 7 71 of 198 3 of 4 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 77 of 263 29% 46 of 224 24 of 30 7 of 9 75 of 259 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 5 of 15 33% 4 of 12 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 6 of 31 19% 3 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 31 of 86 36% 21 of 71 8 of 13 2 of 2 30 of 85 1 of 1 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 27 of 105 25% 18 of 95 7 of 8 2 of 2 27 of 105 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 38 of 101 37% 30 of 87 4 of 9 4 of 5 36 of 98 2 of 3 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 44 of 127 34% 25 of 102 15 of 20 4 of 5 42 of 123 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Angelo acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz is the more technical striker, but he is swayed by Gómez Juárez's raw power and durability. He notes that both are 37 years old and that Kowalkiewicz's five-fight losing streak, even against top competition, is hard to ignore. He picks Gómez Juárez based on a gut feeling but encourages viewers to fade his pick and not bet on this fight because it is evenly matched.

"the pick here is going to be Gomez Juarez I encourage you to fade this pick don't bet on this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Big Brady picks Silvana Gómez Juárez to win by first-round knockout. He notes Kowalkiewicz has looked awful in recent fights, absorbs many strikes, and has poor striking defense. He highlights Gómez Juárez's power, having dropped Vanessa Demopoulos and knocked out Liang Na. He doubts Kowalkiewicz will wrestle, as she has only two takedowns in her UFC career. He believes if it stays on the feet, Gómez Juárez will land a big shot and finish her.

Gómez Juárez by KO in round 1
"give me Juarez to win or as to win by first round KO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Cody leans towards Gómez Juárez, noting that Kowalkiewicz has poor takedown accuracy and likely won't grapple, leading to a striking battle. He thinks Gómez Juárez has significant power and that Kowalkiewicz's chin may not hold up. However, he acknowledges that Gómez Juárez is one-dimensional and could be submitted if taken down, so he is not confident.

"I'm gonna go with a slight lean towards uh Silvana Juarez actually the other way."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that her win over Felice Herrig showed she still has the tools to win, even if she had to convince herself to absorb damage. He points out that Gómez Juárez is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Kowalkiewicz is a surprisingly good wrestler. Connor believes that if Kowalkiewicz can survive the early exchanges, she can take the fight to the ground and win.

"I got to take Cola Cabbage to get the win here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience, clinch work, and well-roundedness. He notes that Gómez Juárez has one-punch knockout power but is one-dimensional and hasn't faced this level of competition. Levi believes if Kowalkiewicz fights smart—using clinch, knees, and takedowns—she can win. He is concerned about her recent skid and durability but thinks she has a path to victory.

"I think Carolina's the more well uh more well-rounded fighter and I'll pick her for that reason"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The host believes Kowalkiewicz has the technical striking advantage and superior Jiu-Jitsu, which she can use to drag the fight to the ground and potentially submit Juarez. He dismisses concerns about Kowalkiewicz's chin, noting she took hard shots from Yanan and didn't go down. He sees her as the better overall fighter and expects her to get her hand raised, possibly via submission.

"I do like Carolina here I don't mind the line that she's currently at around that pick him spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, believing she is being disrespected. He notes that she is a more complete fighter and that Gómez Juárez is a one-trick pony with power but no backup plan. Paul thinks Kowalkiewicz's chin and heart have held up against elite competition, and that she can win by volume and experience. He sees the pick'em price as fair.

"Carolina kovalkovich... I think she's kind of getting disrespected I think she's a much more complete fighter... Carolina for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

The MMA Guru picks Silvana Gómez Juárez, citing her nasty hands and quick boxing combos. He notes Kowalkiewicz's history of being KO'd and hurt, and her tendency to close her eyes when punching. He believes Gómez Juárez will land big boxing combos and get a quick win, possibly a first-round KO.

"I'm going with silver Silvana Gomez Suarez she's got nasty hands"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Zane picks Kowalkiewicz, emphasizing that Gómez Juárez is a clean puncher but has no grappling game and can be taken down easily. He notes that Kowalkiewicz's style relies on absorbing damage, but she has only been knocked out once. Zane also points out that Gómez Juárez's submission attempts are based on poor positional understanding, making her a liability on the ground.

"I think that's a very fortunate out for Cola Cabbage if things do start to get messy."
WIN vs Felice Herrig
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:01 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 55 of 122 45% 59 of 126 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Felice Herrig 0 82 of 123 66% 102 of 146 0 of 2 0% 2 0 3:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 30 of 73 41% 34 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Felice Herrig 0 48 of 70 68% 50 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:16
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 25 of 49 51% 25 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Felice Herrig 0 34 of 53 64% 52 of 74 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 55 of 122 45% 34 of 92 20 of 28 1 of 2 49 of 116 6 of 6 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 82 of 123 66% 54 of 94 23 of 24 5 of 5 57 of 96 17 of 18 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 30 of 73 41% 15 of 50 15 of 22 0 of 1 25 of 68 5 of 5 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 48 of 70 68% 30 of 51 15 of 16 3 of 3 34 of 55 14 of 15 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25 of 49 51% 19 of 42 5 of 6 1 of 1 24 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 34 of 53 64% 24 of 43 8 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 41 3 of 3 8 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Felice Herrig

Angelo calls this a coin flip fight with too many variables. He notes Karolina is the better fighter but looks like a shell of herself, while Felice is scrappy and well-rounded. He reluctantly picks Felice because he believes she still has passion, but advises not to bet on this fight.

advises not to bet on this fight
"honestly i don't want to pick it i don't want to bet it there's too many variables to work on here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Big Brady picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz to win by a very close decision. He thinks the fight will play out like their first fight, with Kowalkiewicz stuffing takedowns and out-striking Herrig. However, he is very hesitant because both fighters are on long losing streaks and he questions Kowalkiewicz's mindset after five straight losses. He calls it a 'complete mess' and an 'unbeatable fight' from a betting perspective.

"give me carolina to win i'll say she stuffed the takedowns and out strikes felice herrig"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz, arguing that her losses came against elite competition while Herrig has been inactive. He notes Herrig's takedown-dependent style and thinks Kowalkiewicz can stuff takedowns and win on volume. He is hesitant due to both fighters' age and recent form.

"i'll go with carolina but i don't know if i can put money my hard-earned dollars on karolina kovalkovic in the year 2022."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz as a slight underdog, noting she won their first fight and that both fighters are past their prime. He mentions Herrig's long layoff and focus on OnlyFans, while Kowalkiewicz has health issues. He calls it a 'dog or pass' fight and advises against betting, but leans toward Kowalkiewicz for the pick.

"i'll go with the underdog who actually beat the favorite one so let's go with carolina to get back on track"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, noting her superior striking and takedown defense from their first fight. He acknowledges both fighters are washed but believes Kowalkiewicz's activity and training at ATT give her an edge. He is not confident due to women's MMA volatility.

"give me uh give me carolina kovakovich but of course women's mma so you just you can't have a ton of confidence"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz but with clear disdain and low confidence. He calls the fight a 'sympathy bout' and questions why it's on the card. He notes Kowalkiewicz has good grappling defense and is scrappy, and she won the first fight, so he expects her to win again. However, he admits 'who knows' and seems to care little about the outcome.

"i'm going to go kovalkavich she's got good grappling defense in her career she's scrappy on the feet"
LOSS vs Jessica Penne
Submission (armbar) R1 4:32 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jessica Penne 0 8 of 12 66% 28 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jessica Penne 0 8 of 12 66% 28 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jessica Penne 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 5 4 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 12 of 19 63% 9 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jessica Penne 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 5 4 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 12 of 19 63% 9 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Angelo picks Kowalkiewicz, stating she is on a different level than Penne. He notes she was almost a champion and should win, though Penne can make it ugly by leaning on her. He mentions she has trained with a new team and expects her to piece up Penne.

"Carolina is gonna put an absolute whooping on Penne... she's on a completely different level."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Big Brady thinks both fighters are past their prime but favors Kowalkiewicz due to her higher volume and better striking. He notes Penne will want takedowns but Kowalkiewicz has solid takedown defense (75%) and trains with JJ. He worries about Penne controlling rounds if she gets takedowns, but ultimately picks Kowalkiewicz by decision.

"I'm gonna take Carolina here I think it's a solid matchup for her."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz but with hesitation. He notes her losing streak and potential motivation issues, but believes she is the more skilled fighter. He expects a close decision win.

fight goes to decision
"i will go with karolina kovakiewicz but whereas it should be just like let's hammer this baby home it's like there's buyer beware now"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jessica Penne

Daniel Levi slightly leans Jessica Penne as the underdog, citing that both fighters are past their primes but Penne has been more active and showed some offensive output in her last fight. He notes that Karolina Kowalkiewicz has not been the same since her diagnosis and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Penne can win a split decision by taking the back or having top control, though he acknowledges Kowalkiewicz is better on the feet.

"I'll actually slightly lean towards the dog Jessica Penne"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Kowalkiewicz should keep the fight on the feet and use her striking to outwork Penne. Penne needs to grapple to win, but Kowalkiewicz has good movement and should avoid the clinch. The striking difference is wide, and Kowalkiewicz may even get a TKO. She is coming back after a long layoff but has a favorable matchup. Decision is most likely, but a KO prop has value.

Kowalkiewicz by KO/TKO +900; Kowalkiewicz by decision +120
"I do like Carolina here I think she gets a victory out for you know after uh her extended layoff um decision is probably the most likely outcome."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick. He acknowledges the narrative around Kowalkiewicz's motivation and Penne's hunger, but does not commit.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Jessica Penne. He argues Kowalkiewicz has faced much better competition and is more technical, despite being older (35). He criticizes Penne's striking and notes she didn't deserve her last win. He predicts Kowalkiewicz will outstrike Penne to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with karolina kovalkovic way more experienced way better technically and i think she'll just outstrike jessica penney to a 30-27 unanimous decision win"
Silvana Gómez Juárez - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 74 of 202 36% 90 of 230 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:03
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 77 of 263 29% 79 of 267 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 5 of 15 33% 20 of 41 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:45
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 6 of 31 19% 7 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 31 of 86 36% 31 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 27 of 105 25% 27 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 38 of 101 37% 39 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 44 of 127 34% 45 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 74 of 202 36% 55 of 170 13 of 25 6 of 7 71 of 198 3 of 4 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 77 of 263 29% 46 of 224 24 of 30 7 of 9 75 of 259 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 5 of 15 33% 4 of 12 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 6 of 31 19% 3 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 31 of 86 36% 21 of 71 8 of 13 2 of 2 30 of 85 1 of 1 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 27 of 105 25% 18 of 95 7 of 8 2 of 2 27 of 105 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 38 of 101 37% 30 of 87 4 of 9 4 of 5 36 of 98 2 of 3 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 44 of 127 34% 25 of 102 15 of 20 4 of 5 42 of 123 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Angelo acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz is the more technical striker, but he is swayed by Gómez Juárez's raw power and durability. He notes that both are 37 years old and that Kowalkiewicz's five-fight losing streak, even against top competition, is hard to ignore. He picks Gómez Juárez based on a gut feeling but encourages viewers to fade his pick and not bet on this fight because it is evenly matched.

"the pick here is going to be Gomez Juarez I encourage you to fade this pick don't bet on this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Big Brady picks Silvana Gómez Juárez to win by first-round knockout. He notes Kowalkiewicz has looked awful in recent fights, absorbs many strikes, and has poor striking defense. He highlights Gómez Juárez's power, having dropped Vanessa Demopoulos and knocked out Liang Na. He doubts Kowalkiewicz will wrestle, as she has only two takedowns in her UFC career. He believes if it stays on the feet, Gómez Juárez will land a big shot and finish her.

Gómez Juárez by KO in round 1
"give me Juarez to win or as to win by first round KO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Cody leans towards Gómez Juárez, noting that Kowalkiewicz has poor takedown accuracy and likely won't grapple, leading to a striking battle. He thinks Gómez Juárez has significant power and that Kowalkiewicz's chin may not hold up. However, he acknowledges that Gómez Juárez is one-dimensional and could be submitted if taken down, so he is not confident.

"I'm gonna go with a slight lean towards uh Silvana Juarez actually the other way."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that her win over Felice Herrig showed she still has the tools to win, even if she had to convince herself to absorb damage. He points out that Gómez Juárez is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Kowalkiewicz is a surprisingly good wrestler. Connor believes that if Kowalkiewicz can survive the early exchanges, she can take the fight to the ground and win.

"I got to take Cola Cabbage to get the win here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience, clinch work, and well-roundedness. He notes that Gómez Juárez has one-punch knockout power but is one-dimensional and hasn't faced this level of competition. Levi believes if Kowalkiewicz fights smart—using clinch, knees, and takedowns—she can win. He is concerned about her recent skid and durability but thinks she has a path to victory.

"I think Carolina's the more well uh more well-rounded fighter and I'll pick her for that reason"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The host believes Kowalkiewicz has the technical striking advantage and superior Jiu-Jitsu, which she can use to drag the fight to the ground and potentially submit Juarez. He dismisses concerns about Kowalkiewicz's chin, noting she took hard shots from Yanan and didn't go down. He sees her as the better overall fighter and expects her to get her hand raised, possibly via submission.

"I do like Carolina here I don't mind the line that she's currently at around that pick him spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, believing she is being disrespected. He notes that she is a more complete fighter and that Gómez Juárez is a one-trick pony with power but no backup plan. Paul thinks Kowalkiewicz's chin and heart have held up against elite competition, and that she can win by volume and experience. He sees the pick'em price as fair.

"Carolina kovalkovich... I think she's kind of getting disrespected I think she's a much more complete fighter... Carolina for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

The MMA Guru picks Silvana Gómez Juárez, citing her nasty hands and quick boxing combos. He notes Kowalkiewicz's history of being KO'd and hurt, and her tendency to close her eyes when punching. He believes Gómez Juárez will land big boxing combos and get a quick win, possibly a first-round KO.

"I'm going with silver Silvana Gomez Suarez she's got nasty hands"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Zane picks Kowalkiewicz, emphasizing that Gómez Juárez is a clean puncher but has no grappling game and can be taken down easily. He notes that Kowalkiewicz's style relies on absorbing damage, but she has only been knocked out once. Zane also points out that Gómez Juárez's submission attempts are based on poor positional understanding, making her a liability on the ground.

"I think that's a very fortunate out for Cola Cabbage if things do start to get messy."
WIN vs Liang Na
KO (punches) R1 1:22 · UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · Jun 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 4 of 17 23% 4 of 17 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:09
Liang Na 1 8 of 12 66% 10 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 4 of 17 23% 4 of 17 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:09
Liang Na 1 8 of 12 66% 10 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Silvana Gómez Juárez 4 of 17 23% 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Liang Na 8 of 12 66% 8 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Silvana Gómez Juárez 4 of 17 23% 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Liang Na 8 of 12 66% 8 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 5, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Liang Na

Angelo goes with his brain over his gut, picking Liang Na despite Juarez's power. He acknowledges Juarez's striking is deadly but her takedown defense is nonexistent, and Liang Na is a relentless wrestler. However, he notes Liang's record is padded and she has questionable toughness, making this a risky fight to bet on.

"i'm gonna go with the brain on this pick i i think nalian can probably get those takedowns and then win from there but don't bet on this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Liang Na

Big Brady picks Liang Na to submit Silvana Gómez Juárez in the first round. He highlights Liang Na's clear path to victory via takedown and submission, as Juárez has 16% takedown defense and has been submitted in both UFC losses. He notes that if the fight goes past the first round, Liang Na's poor cardio could lead to a knockout loss, but he expects an early finish.

submission in round 1, fight doesn't go to decision
"I think Liang Na goes out here and submits her early... I'm gonna take another dog here two in a row give me Liang Na to come out here and submit Juarez in that very first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Liang Na

Cody picks Liang as an underdog, citing her grappling and armbar threat. He notes Gómez Juárez has been submitted quickly in the past and thinks Liang can take her down and submit her. He is not confident but sees value.

Liang by submission (armbar); over 1.5 rounds considered
"i'll take naliang as a pick... maybe maybe it gets to a decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Jun 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Liang Na

Daniel Levi picks Liang Na but is not confident. He cannot get past the fact that Gómez Juárez has been finished in the first round twice in a row yet is favored. He thinks Liang has the grappling advantage and could get an early submission, but worries about her cardio and striking defense. He is not betting the fight.

"if I don't [ __ ] know I'll go with the dog Liang butts"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Liang Na

Liang Na is a grappler with submission skills, while Gómez Juárez is a 37-year-old boxer who lost her last two by armbar. Liang Na's path to victory is a submission, likely early. The matchup heavily favors the grappler, and the plus money is great value. I'll take Liang Na straight up and also like the submission prop.

Liang Na by submission (+215), Liang Na round 1 (+200)
"I'm on the liang side here I usually favor the grappler more often than not and I think that we're going to see it here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Liang Na

Paul also picks Liang, agreeing that her grappling and size advantage could be key. He notes Gómez Juárez's poor grappling defense and thinks Liang can get a takedown and submit her. He is not confident but takes the dog.

Liang by submission (armbar)
"dogger pass naliang... plus 130"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Liang Na

The MMA Guru picks Liang Na over Silvana Gómez Juárez, citing that Gómez Juárez is 37 and likely near the end of her career, with losses to Lupita Godinez and Vanessa Demopoulos. He notes that Liang Na is younger (25) and has a streak of armbar submissions, though against lower-level competition. He predicts Liang Na will win by armbar submission, as Gómez Juárez has lost by armbar twice in a row. He admits it's a difficult fight to pick due to limited information.

armbar submission
"i'm going to trust that she's going to get an arm bar here against sylvana gomez juarez in all honesty"
Submission (armbar) R1 2:25 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vanessa Demopoulos 1 10 of 18 55% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 1 10 of 18 55% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vanessa Demopoulos 10 of 18 55% 9 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 12
Silvana Gómez Juárez 4 of 12 33% 0 of 4 2 of 4 2 of 4 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 10 of 18 55% 9 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 12
Silvana Gómez Juárez 4 of 12 33% 0 of 4 2 of 4 2 of 4 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Angelo picks Vanessa Demopoulos, noting she has a full camp at her natural weight class. He believes her speed, volume, and grappling edge give her the advantage, though he doesn't expect the fight to go to the ground. He mentions the odds have shifted and he agrees with Vanessa being the slight favorite, but he is not betting on this fight.

no bet
"so i'm going vanessa here but it is the you know it's it's early in the year a lot of these people getting back at it after long layoffs so i'm just going to watch the fight i'm just going …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Big Brady picks Silvana Gómez Juárez as a dog, citing Demopoulos' inability to get takedowns (0 for 7 in UFC/Contender Series) and poor striking defense. He notes Demopoulos is very hittable and may pull guard, but Juarez can keep the fight standing and outstrike her. He calls it a low-level fight and says he will not bet it.

Juarez by decision; mentions +120 odds; says he won't bet this fight
"i will take the dog in gomez wars but i will not be betting this fight whatsoever"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Cody picks Silvana Gómez Juárez as a dog, noting that Demopoulos has limited wrestling and striking, relying on jiu-jitsu. He believes Juárez will win if the fight stays standing, as she has better boxing. However, Cody acknowledges that Demopoulos could win if she gets the fight to the ground. He calls this a 'dogger pass' and is not confident.

"Dog selection is Juarez... it is the fight that puts the pass in fight pass."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Daniel Levi picks Silvana Gómez Juárez to win by decision. He argues that Demopoulos is a punching bag on the feet with no real threat, and that her only path to victory is a fluke submission. Gómez Juárez is more well-rounded, has better boxing, and can keep the fight at distance with leg kicks. Levi notes that Demopoulos has only beaten Sam Hughes via fluke submission and that Gómez Juárez has beaten better competition. He expects a clear decision win for the underdog.

Gómez Juárez by decision; underdog +120
"i'm gonna go with sylvana the underdog i just think she's the well a little more well-rounded fighter"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

The host sees this as a 50/50 fight but gives a slight edge to Juarez. He believes Juarez is the better striker and that Demopoulos needs to get the fight to the ground to win, but he doubts Demopoulos's wrestling ability. He notes that Juarez showed good takedown defense against Lupita Godinez. He predicts Juarez by decision, but also thinks Juarez could finish if she lands cleanly.

Juarez by decision, Juarez inside the distance (small play)
"i'm going to be going with the juarez side here uh no big confidence though uh you know i i think the line is accurate where it is roughly around a pick em"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions that he had Juarez as an underdog last time but has no strong opinion now. He notes that Demopoulos has good jiu-jitsu but limited wrestling, while Juarez has better striking. Paul suggests passing on this fight.

"It's a pass... but as we like to say on the show, it's a dogger pass."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

The MMA Guru picks Vanessa Demopoulos, noting her better competition and close decision loss to Lupita Godinez, whereas Gómez Juárez was submitted by Godinez. He trusts Demopoulos' experience and activity, and mentions she is a slight underdog, which he is taking advantage of.

slight underdog
"i'm taking the slight underdog of vanessa d'amophilus here"
LOSS vs Loopy Godinez
Submission (armbar) R1 4:14 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Loopy Godinez 0 11 of 13 84% 18 of 20 5 of 6 83% 1 0 3:27
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Loopy Godinez 0 11 of 13 84% 18 of 20 5 of 6 83% 1 0 3:27
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Loopy Godinez 11 of 13 84% 8 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Loopy Godinez 11 of 13 84% 8 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Angelo is very confident in Loopy Godinez, calling her a former lock of the week. He highlights her wrestling, solid striking with power, and clean boxing. He notes she was robbed in her last fight against Jessica Penne. He has two bets: Loopy inside the distance at plus 315 and Loopy minus 3.5 points at plus 110. He thinks she will dominate and possibly finish.

Loopy Godinez inside the distance at +315 (1 unit); Loopy Godinez -3.5 points at +110 (1 unit)
"I have Lupita inside the distance at plus 315. So, I can triple my money there. And I have Lupita minus three and a half points at plus 110."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady likes Loopy Godinez, noting her strength, striking power, and wrestling. He points out that Sam Hughes is very hittable with 40% striking defense, and Godinez hits hard despite no knockouts. He believes Godinez will dominate on the feet and can also take the fight to the ground if needed. He predicts a dominant decision win, as Hughes is tough but will get pieced up for 15 minutes.

win by decision
"give me loopy goodiness to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Cody leans toward Godinez but is not confident due to the short notice and lack of tape on Juarez. He notes Godinez has crisper boxing and UFC experience, but her ring IQ was questionable in her debut. He expects a competitive fight and is hesitant to lay -360.

"my pick would be lupita godinez"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Daniel Levi leans toward Loopy Godinez because she has UFC experience and fought a full 15-minute fight, while Silvana Gómez Juárez is on short notice. He expects an aggressive, entertaining striking battle and believes Godinez's power and forward pressure will be key. He notes both are prideful and expects a brawl.

"i'm going to lean godinius because she's had that ufc fight under her belt and it's short notice for juarez"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Jacob is very high on Loopy Godinez, calling her a next-level fighter who will compete for a title soon. He likes her at minus 200 and thinks she will finish the fight early. He notes her value in DraftKings at $8,600. He expects her to dominate Sam Hughes with her wrestling and pressure.

Loopy Godinez to finish the fight (early stoppage)
"I love that I even at minus 200, I like those odds. I would put her in my DraftKings for sure. $8,600 is crazy value for the stuff that she can pull off."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

The host picks Silvana Gómez Juárez as an underdog, impressed by her striking combinations and calf kicks. He notes Godinez's fight IQ issues and tendency to put herself in bad positions. He believes Juárez's experience and cleaner striking will lead to a decision victory, though he cautions about her weight cut on short notice.

"I'm actually gonna be predicting wires to win this fight i think she could be the the cleaner christmas striker"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul has no strong opinion on this fight. He notes the line is wide and he hasn't seen enough of Juarez. He is not interested in laying -360 on Godinez given her poor debut and the uncertainty of the matchup.

"i just have no interest in laying the wood at minus 360 on on loopy godness"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez to win by unanimous decision, citing her previous win over Juárez and her youth. He criticizes Juárez for quitting in her last fight against Tecia Torres and believes Godinez's grappling and cardio will be decisive.

Godinez by unanimous decision
"i'm going to go with lupita godinez again... i'll pick her again to win by unanimous decision"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Angelo acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz is the more technical striker, but he is swayed by Gómez Juárez's raw power and durability. He notes that both are 37 years old and that Kowalkiewicz's five-fight losing streak, even against top competition, is hard to ignore. He picks Gómez Juárez based on a gut feeling but encourages viewers to fade his pick and not bet on this fight because it is evenly matched.

"the pick here is going to be Gomez Juarez I encourage you to fade this pick don't bet on this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Big Brady picks Silvana Gómez Juárez to win by first-round knockout. He notes Kowalkiewicz has looked awful in recent fights, absorbs many strikes, and has poor striking defense. He highlights Gómez Juárez's power, having dropped Vanessa Demopoulos and knocked out Liang Na. He doubts Kowalkiewicz will wrestle, as she has only two takedowns in her UFC career. He believes if it stays on the feet, Gómez Juárez will land a big shot and finish her.

Gómez Juárez by KO in round 1
"give me Juarez to win or as to win by first round KO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Cody leans towards Gómez Juárez, noting that Kowalkiewicz has poor takedown accuracy and likely won't grapple, leading to a striking battle. He thinks Gómez Juárez has significant power and that Kowalkiewicz's chin may not hold up. However, he acknowledges that Gómez Juárez is one-dimensional and could be submitted if taken down, so he is not confident.

"I'm gonna go with a slight lean towards uh Silvana Juarez actually the other way."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that her win over Felice Herrig showed she still has the tools to win, even if she had to convince herself to absorb damage. He points out that Gómez Juárez is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Kowalkiewicz is a surprisingly good wrestler. Connor believes that if Kowalkiewicz can survive the early exchanges, she can take the fight to the ground and win.

"I got to take Cola Cabbage to get the win here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience, clinch work, and well-roundedness. He notes that Gómez Juárez has one-punch knockout power but is one-dimensional and hasn't faced this level of competition. Levi believes if Kowalkiewicz fights smart—using clinch, knees, and takedowns—she can win. He is concerned about her recent skid and durability but thinks she has a path to victory.

"I think Carolina's the more well uh more well-rounded fighter and I'll pick her for that reason"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The host believes Kowalkiewicz has the technical striking advantage and superior Jiu-Jitsu, which she can use to drag the fight to the ground and potentially submit Juarez. He dismisses concerns about Kowalkiewicz's chin, noting she took hard shots from Yanan and didn't go down. He sees her as the better overall fighter and expects her to get her hand raised, possibly via submission.

"I do like Carolina here I don't mind the line that she's currently at around that pick him spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, believing she is being disrespected. He notes that she is a more complete fighter and that Gómez Juárez is a one-trick pony with power but no backup plan. Paul thinks Kowalkiewicz's chin and heart have held up against elite competition, and that she can win by volume and experience. He sees the pick'em price as fair.

"Carolina kovalkovich... I think she's kind of getting disrespected I think she's a much more complete fighter... Carolina for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

The MMA Guru picks Silvana Gómez Juárez, citing her nasty hands and quick boxing combos. He notes Kowalkiewicz's history of being KO'd and hurt, and her tendency to close her eyes when punching. He believes Gómez Juárez will land big boxing combos and get a quick win, possibly a first-round KO.

"I'm going with silver Silvana Gomez Suarez she's got nasty hands"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Zane picks Kowalkiewicz, emphasizing that Gómez Juárez is a clean puncher but has no grappling game and can be taken down easily. He notes that Kowalkiewicz's style relies on absorbing damage, but she has only been knocked out once. Zane also points out that Gómez Juárez's submission attempts are based on poor positional understanding, making her a liability on the ground.

"I think that's a very fortunate out for Cola Cabbage if things do start to get messy."